Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-10-18 07:41

Show last authors
1 (% class="hover min" %)
2 |1 |00:00:00 ~-~-> 00:00:06 |ICT: Hi folks, welcome back. This is October 15, 2025 market review. We start
3 |2 |00:00:06 ~-~-> 00:00:08 |with the forex market and Dollar Index. All
4 |3 |00:00:13 ~-~-> 00:00:17 |right. So here we have the dollar index daily on the left, five minute on the
5 |4 |00:00:17 ~-~-> 00:00:21 |right. As I mentioned yesterday, if it was going to stay bullish. I did not
6 |5 |00:00:21 ~-~-> 00:00:25 |want to see it come back down inside this suspension block. It had already
7 |6 |00:00:25 ~-~-> 00:00:29 |used its consequent encroachment here. So that would be enough for my liking.
8 |7 |00:00:30 ~-~-> 00:00:35 |So for it to resume being bullish, it needs to shake this retracement down
9 |8 |00:00:35 ~-~-> 00:00:41 |into this suspension block off immediately. So tomorrow, it would need
10 |9 |00:00:41 ~-~-> 00:00:46 |to start showing willingness to want to go higher or deeper. Retracements are
11 |10 |00:00:46 ~-~-> 00:00:50 |most likely in order. We have relative equal highs up here, they stayed clean
12 |11 |00:00:51 ~-~-> 00:00:57 |and we broke lower. Had a consolidation in here, you'll look at the review or
13 |12 |00:00:57 ~-~-> 00:01:00 |the live stream I did yesterday. It's kind of long, but I actually teach how
14 |13 |00:01:00 ~-~-> 00:01:05 |to find the right fair value gaps that it's highly precise, it's very
15 |14 |00:01:05 ~-~-> 00:01:13 |systematic, and it uses the quadrants on Wix, and not only wicks, but it's also
16 |15 |00:01:13 ~-~-> 00:01:20 |in the fair value gap and inefficiencies. So have that area here
17 |16 |00:01:20 ~-~-> 00:01:27 |protracted to the right, you can see that offered a little bit of premium
18 |17 |00:01:27 ~-~-> 00:01:33 |sensitivity here broke lower and then over at midnight last night, we worked
19 |18 |00:01:33 ~-~-> 00:01:38 |at the low of this old oxygen balance outside efficiency that's shaded in
20 |19 |00:01:38 ~-~-> 00:01:45 |pink, retreated up into it here. Traded a little bit deeper into the retracement
21 |20 |00:01:46 ~-~-> 00:01:52 |of this run, and we broke lower, consolidated, and then we had a sell off
22 |21 |00:01:52 ~-~-> 00:02:00 |during the morning session for Dollar Index. Your dollar still in this ugly
23 |22 |00:02:00 ~-~-> 00:02:09 |range in here. It's, I can't explain how difficult it is for me to explain what
24 |23 |00:02:09 ~-~-> 00:02:14 |we're likely to do next while we're in this type of area, because it literally
25 |24 |00:02:14 ~-~-> 00:02:20 |could go either way. So it's, that's the way it is. If you recall what I said.
26 |25 |00:02:20 ~-~-> 00:02:24 |I'm not interested in forex. I'm not interested in it at all because it's in
27 |26 |00:02:24 ~-~-> 00:02:27 |areas where it doesn't have high probability one direction over the
28 |27 |00:02:27 ~-~-> 00:02:32 |other. So that's why I stick with the NASDAQ. Okay, and it's really moving
29 |28 |00:02:32 ~-~-> 00:02:36 |better than Forex anyway. But I know you guys want to know, so I'm sharing it
30 |29 |00:02:36 ~-~-> 00:02:40 |now. All right, so there's a lot of business going on in here. I have this
31 |30 |00:02:40 ~-~-> 00:02:47 |wick, discount wick. I had that graded, and I have this longer wick right here.
32 |31 |00:02:47 ~-~-> 00:02:52 |I have the lower quadrant annotated. That's what you see right here at that
33 |32 |00:02:52 ~-~-> 00:03:02 |1.16163 level. And that's shown over here. Okay, and the immediate rebalance
34 |33 |00:03:02 ~-~-> 00:03:06 |I mentioned. If we trade above that on a closing pace on the daily chart, all
35 |34 |00:03:06 ~-~-> 00:03:09 |bets are off. Then I think we're probably going to go higher on Euro
36 |35 |00:03:09 ~-~-> 00:03:14 |dollar we mean lower prices on Dollar Index. We haven't got that yet, but
37 |36 |00:03:14 ~-~-> 00:03:17 |obviously we haven't closed for the day. It's kind of still a little early, but I
38 |37 |00:03:17 ~-~-> 00:03:26 |have to get this done when I can. So the so the wick here, it's graded, and we
39 |38 |00:03:26 ~-~-> 00:03:39 |see 1.16220 that's this level right here. And we have 16325, that's the
40 |39 |00:03:39 ~-~-> 00:03:47 |upper quadrant of this wick. See that. Now, if you look real close, we had
41 |40 |00:03:47 ~-~-> 00:03:54 |price run up trade into the 1.16380 level, which is the high of this
42 |41 |00:03:54 ~-~-> 00:04:03 |discount wick, or the closing candle price of that day. We look up to it the
43 |42 |00:04:03 ~-~-> 00:04:07 |body, stop and confirm here, after our shift in market structure, we break
44 |43 |00:04:07 ~-~-> 00:04:16 |lower down to the 1.16220 level. That's upper quadrant of the longest discount
45 |44 |00:04:16 ~-~-> 00:04:26 |wick in here. We rally back up, and we go right to 1.16325 it stops dead to the
46 |45 |00:04:26 ~-~-> 00:04:31 |tick right here. It's probably random. We break lower trade down into bull
47 |46 |00:04:31 ~-~-> 00:04:35 |shoulder block, which is last two down close candles here, consecutively with a
48 |47 |00:04:35 ~-~-> 00:04:40 |fair value gap and hint, nudge, nudge. And then we rally up. We have a buy side
49 |48 |00:04:40 ~-~-> 00:04:45 |of mouse cell sign efficiency after a breakaway gap. Okay, so we have a
50 |49 |00:04:45 ~-~-> 00:04:52 |breakaway gap, fair value gap. It trades down into it sends a higher measuring
51 |50 |00:04:52 ~-~-> 00:04:58 |gap, rally up and institutional overflow entry drill inside the measuring gap and
52 |51 |00:04:59 ~-~-> 00:05:06 |a buy side of balance. Sign efficiency there on top of that. 1.16325 quadrant
53 |52 |00:05:06 ~-~-> 00:05:17 |level, which is the upper quadrant of this discount wick able or British Pound
54 |53 |00:05:17 ~-~-> 00:05:21 |versus US dollar. It's had a nice showing after running down to its lower
55 |54 |00:05:21 ~-~-> 00:05:30 |quadrant of this premium turn discount wick. Trade down to it perfectly. And
56 |55 |00:05:30 ~-~-> 00:05:34 |now we've seen it deliver all the way up to the high of this wick and trade it
57 |56 |00:05:34 ~-~-> 00:05:42 |even higher into this candlesticks. Wick low. Now why am I not using this one
58 |57 |00:05:42 ~-~-> 00:05:47 |here? You're going to be wondering why. It's because this one basically lays
59 |58 |00:05:47 ~-~-> 00:05:52 |right on top of the the opening price of this candlestick, and when there is a
60 |59 |00:05:52 ~-~-> 00:05:58 |shared value of two PD arrays, I'm going to look for something else that's going
61 |60 |00:05:58 ~-~-> 00:06:03 |to be outside of that. So it gives me a better it gives me a better filter for
62 |61 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:10 |looking for levels, instead of just demanding that, because this low in this
63 |62 |00:06:10 ~-~-> 00:06:14 |opening price basically is the same or very close to it. I want something
64 |63 |00:06:14 ~-~-> 00:06:19 |that's different, and that's right here. We're seeing this wick here, so that's
65 |64 |00:06:19 ~-~-> 00:06:29 |why that one's graded. And you can see the levels over here, one my eyes are so
66 |65 |00:06:30 ~-~-> 00:06:31 |1.34009
67 |66 |00:06:52 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |that's this level here. So the next one above it is the low of that wick, right
68 |67 |00:06:57 ~-~-> 00:07:05 |there. So 1.34009 is the low of that discount wick. But when we're trading up
69 |68 |00:07:05 ~-~-> 00:07:09 |to it, it's going to act as a premium array, drawing price in hits. It there.
70 |69 |00:07:12 ~-~-> 00:07:18 |So drawn up into these levels after leaving all of this consolidation. This
71 |70 |00:07:18 ~-~-> 00:07:22 |is very similar to what I outlined yesterday in the live stream, which is a
72 |71 |00:07:22 ~-~-> 00:07:26 |setup that forms every single day during the New York morning session, between
73 |72 |00:07:27 ~-~-> 00:07:31 |seven o'clock and morning, 10 o'clock in the morning, Eastern Time. So it's three
74 |73 |00:07:31 ~-~-> 00:07:34 |hour window, and you can do all this setup hunting you'd ever want to do in
75 |74 |00:07:34 ~-~-> 00:07:39 |those three hours. You don't even need to trade anything else. But I want you
76 |75 |00:07:39 ~-~-> 00:07:57 |to look at the 1.33 point, 33637, this level right here. That level is this
77 |76 |00:07:57 ~-~-> 00:08:06 |right here. That's quite encouraging. This discount wick on that level. We
78 |77 |00:08:06 ~-~-> 00:08:14 |have an old buy side of our cell sign efficiency. We have a breaker, low,
79 |78 |00:08:14 ~-~-> 00:08:19 |high, lower, low rate on site right on that level as well. And then we have the
80 |79 |00:08:19 ~-~-> 00:08:24 |reclaimed fair value, got there and breaker. And then look at the price
81 |80 |00:08:24 ~-~-> 00:08:29 |here, which, if you grade the buy sign amount, cell sign efficiency. Look at
82 |81 |00:08:29 ~-~-> 00:08:33 |the low tap on right there. And look what the bodies are showing you. They're
83 |82 |00:08:33 ~-~-> 00:08:38 |staying in the upper half, but only wicking down, allowing you what
84 |83 |00:08:38 ~-~-> 00:08:45 |expectation is going to go higher and it greens off into this candlesticks low.
85 |84 |00:08:47 ~-~-> 00:08:52 |You can see that being done beautifully there. Fair value gap there as well,
86 |85 |00:08:52 ~-~-> 00:08:56 |another bullish fair value gap that's reclaimed over here. You can see the
87 |86 |00:08:56 ~-~-> 00:08:59 |lower quadrant. Nailed it to the tick there as well. And then the bodies. Look
88 |87 |00:08:59 ~-~-> 00:09:02 |at the bodies look at the bodies right there. It's indicating that it's not
89 |88 |00:09:02 ~-~-> 00:09:07 |wanting to go lower. It's bullish and takes off. That is my language. That's
90 |89 |00:09:07 ~-~-> 00:09:12 |algorithm, price delivery. It's algorithmic tape reading signals. It's
91 |90 |00:09:12 ~-~-> 00:09:16 |like, like, Billboard signs saying, Look at me. I'm getting ready to go up. I'm
92 |91 |00:09:16 ~-~-> 00:09:19 |getting ready to go up. And I talked about this yesterday. Talked about it a
93 |92 |00:09:19 ~-~-> 00:09:25 |lot, mentorship lectures, too, but a lot of you guys weren't there. So I said, I
94 |93 |00:09:25 ~-~-> 00:09:34 |think my word for it, October 15, 2025, for the index futures market. And
95 |94 |00:09:34 ~-~-> 00:09:39 |obviously the one I'm focusing on primarily still is just the commission
96 |95 |00:09:39 ~-~-> 00:09:46 |the Christmas rather December contract for NQ mini futures. We're starting off
97 |96 |00:09:46 ~-~-> 00:09:50 |with the regular trading hours chart here. So regular trading hour shows the
98 |97 |00:09:51 ~-~-> 00:09:54 |difference between where we settled yesterday, at 4:14pm Eastern Time, and
99 |98 |00:09:54 ~-~-> 00:10:00 |then we opened up at 930 Eastern time. So that difference is the open. Range
100 |99 |00:10:00 ~-~-> 00:10:04 |gap, or regular trading hours opening range gap, and it's abbreviated by RTH,
101 |100 |00:10:05 ~-~-> 00:10:09 |O, R G. The high is the opening price, because it's higher than where we
102 |101 |00:10:09 ~-~-> 00:10:12 |settled at the previous day. That's regular trading hours opening range gap.
103 |102 |00:10:12 ~-~-> 00:10:19 |Low, this is also the price level that you would have noted as the 930 opening
104 |103 |00:10:19 ~-~-> 00:10:24 |price. Okay, so you can always add that in the description as well. Midnight
105 |104 |00:10:24 ~-~-> 00:10:27 |opening price, Eastern Time. I mentioned that yesterday in the live stream. You
106 |105 |00:10:27 ~-~-> 00:10:31 |want to have that price, and then we had a sell side liquidity pool, and we'll
107 |106 |00:10:31 ~-~-> 00:10:35 |look at that in here. I kind of posted that already and stole the thunder, but
108 |107 |00:10:35 ~-~-> 00:10:39 |I told you you needed to do this for your homework, but the market trades up
109 |108 |00:10:39 ~-~-> 00:10:45 |into this fair value. Got what's the city I told you to have that and grade
110 |109 |00:10:45 ~-~-> 00:10:53 |it. And those levels were shown to you yesterday. And 25 111.75 that's this
111 |110 |00:10:53 ~-~-> 00:11:01 |level here. And, man, it's almost as if the stuff I teach works precisely so
112 |111 |00:11:01 ~-~-> 00:11:06 |market rallies up, stops dead in its tracks. Looks like a big bull flag. And
113 |112 |00:11:06 ~-~-> 00:11:09 |then it's not a bull flag, okay? And then we have sell side bounce, buy side
114 |113 |00:11:09 ~-~-> 00:11:16 |efficiency. We hit it here, return back into it. Break away from the consequence
115 |114 |00:11:16 ~-~-> 00:11:20 |of that daily Sibi, which is this candlesticks low, this candlesticks
116 |115 |00:11:20 ~-~-> 00:11:29 |high. There's that 25,000, 0630, level there, and we break, we come back to rev
117 |116 |00:11:29 ~-~-> 00:11:37 |trading hours, opening range, gap high, or opening price at 930, Eastern Time.
118 |117 |00:11:38 ~-~-> 00:11:41 |Trade through it, come right back up, hits it. This is how you see it. As a
119 |118 |00:11:41 ~-~-> 00:11:47 |short you have all this UN filled price action and traded there overnight in
120 |119 |00:11:47 ~-~-> 00:11:52 |electronic trading hours, but in record trading hours, it's like a big vacuum.
121 |120 |00:11:52 ~-~-> 00:11:57 |Remember, I was telling you that if you have I think the analogy I used was
122 |121 |00:11:58 ~-~-> 00:12:02 |these vacuum sealed bags, and you use your vacuum cleaner to suck the air out
123 |122 |00:12:02 ~-~-> 00:12:05 |of it and just store things much more efficiently, because it flattens it
124 |123 |00:12:05 ~-~-> 00:12:08 |down. When you break that seal, what's going to happen? All the air is going to
125 |124 |00:12:08 ~-~-> 00:12:11 |rush back right back into it? Well, that's what's happening here when you
126 |125 |00:12:11 ~-~-> 00:12:17 |break the seal. Goes back to the rate of trading hours, opening range gap high or
127 |126 |00:12:17 ~-~-> 00:12:23 |930 opening price hits. It starts to break down. Trade right back up. And
128 |127 |00:12:23 ~-~-> 00:12:29 |then we go right to inside the opening range gap quadrants. So here's opening
129 |128 |00:12:29 ~-~-> 00:12:34 |range gap, high, upper quadrant, consequent encroachment. Lower quadrant,
130 |129 |00:12:34 ~-~-> 00:12:44 |low. Okay, and we have price breaking aggressively here, consolidating one
131 |130 |00:12:44 ~-~-> 00:12:49 |more break lower, trading back to midnight, opening price and trades to
132 |131 |00:12:49 ~-~-> 00:12:54 |the lower quadrant. Here takes one more time touch that before it breaks lower
133 |132 |00:12:54 ~-~-> 00:13:01 |and completely closes in the gap. Now I want to take you over to the rate of
134 |133 |00:13:01 ~-~-> 00:13:09 |training hours chart, and I showed you on Twitter or x this in here. And then
135 |134 |00:13:09 ~-~-> 00:13:14 |we rallied up, and we come back right back down in during the macro 750,
136 |135 |00:13:14 ~-~-> 00:13:20 |Eastern Time to 810, that's my ICT macro time. This trades right down into a
137 |136 |00:13:21 ~-~-> 00:13:25 |quadrant level. I want you to look at your charts, and you'll see it. It stops
138 |137 |00:13:25 ~-~-> 00:13:31 |dead, right on right on it to the tick during the macro. It's probably random,
139 |138 |00:13:31 ~-~-> 00:13:36 |and it rallies up, consolidates, and then we have this drop down at the
140 |139 |00:13:36 ~-~-> 00:13:42 |opening price at 930 so opening range first 30 minutes. It's not 15 minutes. I
141 |140 |00:13:42 ~-~-> 00:13:47 |don't care what anybody tells you, it's 30 minute interval. We drop down during
142 |141 |00:13:47 ~-~-> 00:13:53 |the first 30 minutes and then the first presented fair value gap. Here we trade,
143 |142 |00:13:53 ~-~-> 00:14:00 |excuse me, we trade down into the low of the morning, and then we rally back up
144 |143 |00:14:00 ~-~-> 00:14:03 |to first present to fair value gap, which is now going to act because we
145 |144 |00:14:03 ~-~-> 00:14:10 |have relative equal heights up here, smooth edges. I was in Lumi traders on
146 |145 |00:14:10 ~-~-> 00:14:13 |live stream, and I called this out live the watch to first present to fair value
147 |146 |00:14:13 ~-~-> 00:14:20 |gap, and then use this as the draw. And we opened up with a run here, dropped
148 |147 |00:14:20 ~-~-> 00:14:26 |down into consequent encroachment, and then volleyed higher, taking out the 25
149 |148 |00:14:26 ~-~-> 00:14:30 |zero to five level. That was the only thing I had time to kind of like
150 |149 |00:14:30 ~-~-> 00:14:34 |illustrate. And then it rallied up even more. Went back to regular trading
151 |150 |00:14:34 ~-~-> 00:14:40 |hours, open range, gap high, accumulated more here and ripped higher up into
152 |151 |00:14:40 ~-~-> 00:14:48 |25,001 10. And 111 which is here, that's this upper quadrant of this city.
153 |152 |00:14:49 ~-~-> 00:14:53 |Perfect. Are you starting to see what I mean by I'm not surprised by these
154 |153 |00:14:53 ~-~-> 00:14:57 |things. And when everybody in the past has always said, you know, he's got to
155 |154 |00:14:57 ~-~-> 00:15:00 |be cherry picking, he's got to be photoshopping. It, it's got. To be
156 |155 |00:15:00 ~-~-> 00:15:05 |something extra. It's got to be all these different recorded devices. And
157 |156 |00:15:05 ~-~-> 00:15:07 |then he picks the one that works perfectly. I don't need any of that
158 |157 |00:15:07 ~-~-> 00:15:12 |stuff. Like, I don't need any of that like, I don't need crutches. So you can
159 |158 |00:15:12 ~-~-> 00:15:16 |see how the things I'm teaching you, just like I did in that live stream
160 |159 |00:15:16 ~-~-> 00:15:22 |yesterday, that live stream yesterday, while albeit vulgar, it was literally me
161 |160 |00:15:22 ~-~-> 00:15:28 |giving you a Master's class in price action, algorithmically with my own
162 |161 |00:15:28 ~-~-> 00:15:32 |language. That way, you can see it's like me pulling the veil back, and you
163 |162 |00:15:32 ~-~-> 00:15:38 |can see the real me, like this is the stuff I have had for decades, and nobody
164 |163 |00:15:38 ~-~-> 00:15:42 |else has had it. And I'm just revealing a little bit of things that people say
165 |164 |00:15:42 ~-~-> 00:15:46 |all the time, like fair value gaps and imbalances and order blocks. It's a
166 |165 |00:15:46 ~-~-> 00:15:54 |guess, wrong, wrong Cubby. This is precise. It's really, really perfect.
167 |166 |00:15:54 ~-~-> 00:15:57 |It's perfect. And when you understand the science, when you blend them
168 |167 |00:15:57 ~-~-> 00:16:06 |together, all you're doing is waiting for that to agree with time. Time. When
169 |168 |00:16:06 ~-~-> 00:16:13 |this market turns here. It's entering a macro. This at this price, the opening
170 |169 |00:16:13 ~-~-> 00:16:19 |price at 930 it's during a macro. It rips and goes higher.
171 |170 |00:16:21 ~-~-> 00:16:25 |It spends its time up here, time distortion, then it folds, goes lower,
172 |171 |00:16:26 ~-~-> 00:16:32 |trades right back up into the opening price at 930 we consolidate this segment
173 |172 |00:16:32 ~-~-> 00:16:35 |of price action here is just the overlapping of this rectangle in pink
174 |173 |00:16:35 ~-~-> 00:16:39 |and this being in a different queue. So it's going to give you this kind of
175 |174 |00:16:39 ~-~-> 00:16:43 |color here. That's not me showing any kind of like inversion fair value.
176 |175 |00:16:43 ~-~-> 00:16:50 |That's, that's what I'm not representing there. The inversion is the yellowish,
177 |176 |00:16:50 ~-~-> 00:16:55 |almost pale orange. What's being shown here, this discoloration is just because
178 |177 |00:16:55 ~-~-> 00:17:00 |they're overlapping. There's nothing I can do about that. So we, we trade back
179 |178 |00:17:00 ~-~-> 00:17:05 |to first visit, to fair value gap in here. And then we fold over down to
180 |179 |00:17:05 ~-~-> 00:17:09 |lower quadrant of the opening range gap, down to the full closure of it. And then
181 |180 |00:17:09 ~-~-> 00:17:16 |we trade down into 0.75 or the lower quadrant of this wick, because now we're
182 |181 |00:17:16 ~-~-> 00:17:20 |working back down into the range of this candlestick. So if once we go below this
183 |182 |00:17:20 ~-~-> 00:17:25 |candlesticks closing price. We have to have these levels in mind on our chart.
184 |183 |00:17:25 ~-~-> 00:17:30 |And you can see it trades right down to the lower quadrant there at 24,006 72
185 |184 |00:17:30 ~-~-> 00:17:38 |and a half. I'm saying up. I should be saying the upper quadrant, not the lower
186 |185 |00:17:38 ~-~-> 00:17:44 |quadrant. The upper quadrant here at 24,672 and a half. And that's what
187 |186 |00:17:44 ~-~-> 00:17:48 |you're seeing here. And if you go even further, you'll see that there's
188 |187 |00:17:48 ~-~-> 00:17:52 |relative equal lows here. The one to the right is slightly higher. That means the
189 |188 |00:17:52 ~-~-> 00:17:56 |strong candidate for a run on liquidity. And it dove all the way down, hit that
190 |189 |00:17:56 ~-~-> 00:18:01 |and upper quadrant of this discount wick. And then look at the repelling
191 |190 |00:18:02 ~-~-> 00:18:06 |back up that it showed here, pretty wild volatility. I told you that was going to
192 |191 |00:18:06 ~-~-> 00:18:09 |happen yesterday. I told you, that's what's coming. And if you're not
193 |192 |00:18:09 ~-~-> 00:18:12 |careful, if you don't know what you're doing, you're trying to trade without
194 |193 |00:18:12 ~-~-> 00:18:15 |stop losses, because you think you're going to be better than the average
195 |194 |00:18:16 ~-~-> 00:18:20 |bear, you're going to have your clock cleaned. And is there simply no reason
196 |195 |00:18:20 ~-~-> 00:18:25 |for doing it like that. So that's it for today. Short, sweet, direct to the
197 |196 |00:18:25 ~-~-> 00:18:29 |point, and I'm going to wish you all a very pleasant evening, and if Lord
198 |197 |00:18:29 ~-~-> 00:18:31 |willing, I will touch base with you tomorrow.