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ICT YT - 2025-10-16 - ICT Forex and Futures Market Review 10-15-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-10-18 07:41
1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:06 ICT: Hi folks, welcome back. This is October 15, 2025 market review. We start
2 00:00:06 --> 00:00:08 with the forex market and Dollar Index. All
3 00:00:13 --> 00:00:17 right. So here we have the dollar index daily on the left, five minute on the
4 00:00:17 --> 00:00:21 right. As I mentioned yesterday, if it was going to stay bullish. I did not
5 00:00:21 --> 00:00:25 want to see it come back down inside this suspension block. It had already
6 00:00:25 --> 00:00:29 used its consequent encroachment here. So that would be enough for my liking.
7 00:00:30 --> 00:00:35 So for it to resume being bullish, it needs to shake this retracement down
8 00:00:35 --> 00:00:41 into this suspension block off immediately. So tomorrow, it would need
9 00:00:41 --> 00:00:46 to start showing willingness to want to go higher or deeper. Retracements are
10 00:00:46 --> 00:00:50 most likely in order. We have relative equal highs up here, they stayed clean
11 00:00:51 --> 00:00:57 and we broke lower. Had a consolidation in here, you'll look at the review or
12 00:00:57 --> 00:01:00 the live stream I did yesterday. It's kind of long, but I actually teach how
13 00:01:00 --> 00:01:05 to find the right fair value gaps that it's highly precise, it's very
14 00:01:05 --> 00:01:13 systematic, and it uses the quadrants on Wix, and not only wicks, but it's also
15 00:01:13 --> 00:01:20 in the fair value gap and inefficiencies. So have that area here
16 00:01:20 --> 00:01:27 protracted to the right, you can see that offered a little bit of premium
17 00:01:27 --> 00:01:33 sensitivity here broke lower and then over at midnight last night, we worked
18 00:01:33 --> 00:01:38 at the low of this old oxygen balance outside efficiency that's shaded in
19 00:01:38 --> 00:01:45 pink, retreated up into it here. Traded a little bit deeper into the retracement
20 00:01:46 --> 00:01:52 of this run, and we broke lower, consolidated, and then we had a sell off
21 00:01:52 --> 00:02:00 during the morning session for Dollar Index. Your dollar still in this ugly
22 00:02:00 --> 00:02:09 range in here. It's, I can't explain how difficult it is for me to explain what
23 00:02:09 --> 00:02:14 we're likely to do next while we're in this type of area, because it literally
24 00:02:14 --> 00:02:20 could go either way. So it's, that's the way it is. If you recall what I said.
25 00:02:20 --> 00:02:24 I'm not interested in forex. I'm not interested in it at all because it's in
26 00:02:24 --> 00:02:27 areas where it doesn't have high probability one direction over the
27 00:02:27 --> 00:02:32 other. So that's why I stick with the NASDAQ. Okay, and it's really moving
28 00:02:32 --> 00:02:36 better than Forex anyway. But I know you guys want to know, so I'm sharing it
29 00:02:36 --> 00:02:40 now. All right, so there's a lot of business going on in here. I have this
30 00:02:40 --> 00:02:47 wick, discount wick. I had that graded, and I have this longer wick right here.
31 00:02:47 --> 00:02:52 I have the lower quadrant annotated. That's what you see right here at that
32 00:02:52 --> 00:03:02 1.16163 level. And that's shown over here. Okay, and the immediate rebalance
33 00:03:02 --> 00:03:06 I mentioned. If we trade above that on a closing pace on the daily chart, all
34 00:03:06 --> 00:03:09 bets are off. Then I think we're probably going to go higher on Euro
35 00:03:09 --> 00:03:14 dollar we mean lower prices on Dollar Index. We haven't got that yet, but
36 00:03:14 --> 00:03:17 obviously we haven't closed for the day. It's kind of still a little early, but I
37 00:03:17 --> 00:03:26 have to get this done when I can. So the so the wick here, it's graded, and we
38 00:03:26 --> 00:03:39 see 1.16220 that's this level right here. And we have 16325, that's the
39 00:03:39 --> 00:03:47 upper quadrant of this wick. See that. Now, if you look real close, we had
40 00:03:47 --> 00:03:54 price run up trade into the 1.16380 level, which is the high of this
41 00:03:54 --> 00:04:03 discount wick, or the closing candle price of that day. We look up to it the
42 00:04:03 --> 00:04:07 body, stop and confirm here, after our shift in market structure, we break
43 00:04:07 --> 00:04:16 lower down to the 1.16220 level. That's upper quadrant of the longest discount
44 00:04:16 --> 00:04:26 wick in here. We rally back up, and we go right to 1.16325 it stops dead to the
45 00:04:26 --> 00:04:31 tick right here. It's probably random. We break lower trade down into bull
46 00:04:31 --> 00:04:35 shoulder block, which is last two down close candles here, consecutively with a
47 00:04:35 --> 00:04:40 fair value gap and hint, nudge, nudge. And then we rally up. We have a buy side
48 00:04:40 --> 00:04:45 of mouse cell sign efficiency after a breakaway gap. Okay, so we have a
49 00:04:45 --> 00:04:52 breakaway gap, fair value gap. It trades down into it sends a higher measuring
50 00:04:52 --> 00:04:58 gap, rally up and institutional overflow entry drill inside the measuring gap and
51 00:04:59 --> 00:05:06 a buy side of balance. Sign efficiency there on top of that. 1.16325 quadrant
52 00:05:06 --> 00:05:17 level, which is the upper quadrant of this discount wick able or British Pound
53 00:05:17 --> 00:05:21 versus US dollar. It's had a nice showing after running down to its lower
54 00:05:21 --> 00:05:30 quadrant of this premium turn discount wick. Trade down to it perfectly. And
55 00:05:30 --> 00:05:34 now we've seen it deliver all the way up to the high of this wick and trade it
56 00:05:34 --> 00:05:42 even higher into this candlesticks. Wick low. Now why am I not using this one
57 00:05:42 --> 00:05:47 here? You're going to be wondering why. It's because this one basically lays
58 00:05:47 --> 00:05:52 right on top of the the opening price of this candlestick, and when there is a
59 00:05:52 --> 00:05:58 shared value of two PD arrays, I'm going to look for something else that's going
60 00:05:58 --> 00:06:03 to be outside of that. So it gives me a better it gives me a better filter for
61 00:06:04 --> 00:06:10 looking for levels, instead of just demanding that, because this low in this
62 00:06:10 --> 00:06:14 opening price basically is the same or very close to it. I want something
63 00:06:14 --> 00:06:19 that's different, and that's right here. We're seeing this wick here, so that's
64 00:06:19 --> 00:06:29 why that one's graded. And you can see the levels over here, one my eyes are so
65 00:06:30 --> 00:06:31 1.34009
66 00:06:52 --> 00:06:57 that's this level here. So the next one above it is the low of that wick, right
67 00:06:57 --> 00:07:05 there. So 1.34009 is the low of that discount wick. But when we're trading up
68 00:07:05 --> 00:07:09 to it, it's going to act as a premium array, drawing price in hits. It there.
69 00:07:12 --> 00:07:18 So drawn up into these levels after leaving all of this consolidation. This
70 00:07:18 --> 00:07:22 is very similar to what I outlined yesterday in the live stream, which is a
71 00:07:22 --> 00:07:26 setup that forms every single day during the New York morning session, between
72 00:07:27 --> 00:07:31 seven o'clock and morning, 10 o'clock in the morning, Eastern Time. So it's three
73 00:07:31 --> 00:07:34 hour window, and you can do all this setup hunting you'd ever want to do in
74 00:07:34 --> 00:07:39 those three hours. You don't even need to trade anything else. But I want you
75 00:07:39 --> 00:07:57 to look at the 1.33 point, 33637, this level right here. That level is this
76 00:07:57 --> 00:08:06 right here. That's quite encouraging. This discount wick on that level. We
77 00:08:06 --> 00:08:14 have an old buy side of our cell sign efficiency. We have a breaker, low,
78 00:08:14 --> 00:08:19 high, lower, low rate on site right on that level as well. And then we have the
79 00:08:19 --> 00:08:24 reclaimed fair value, got there and breaker. And then look at the price
80 00:08:24 --> 00:08:29 here, which, if you grade the buy sign amount, cell sign efficiency. Look at
81 00:08:29 --> 00:08:33 the low tap on right there. And look what the bodies are showing you. They're
82 00:08:33 --> 00:08:38 staying in the upper half, but only wicking down, allowing you what
83 00:08:38 --> 00:08:45 expectation is going to go higher and it greens off into this candlesticks low.
84 00:08:47 --> 00:08:52 You can see that being done beautifully there. Fair value gap there as well,
85 00:08:52 --> 00:08:56 another bullish fair value gap that's reclaimed over here. You can see the
86 00:08:56 --> 00:08:59 lower quadrant. Nailed it to the tick there as well. And then the bodies. Look
87 00:08:59 --> 00:09:02 at the bodies look at the bodies right there. It's indicating that it's not
88 00:09:02 --> 00:09:07 wanting to go lower. It's bullish and takes off. That is my language. That's
89 00:09:07 --> 00:09:12 algorithm, price delivery. It's algorithmic tape reading signals. It's
90 00:09:12 --> 00:09:16 like, like, Billboard signs saying, Look at me. I'm getting ready to go up. I'm
91 00:09:16 --> 00:09:19 getting ready to go up. And I talked about this yesterday. Talked about it a
92 00:09:19 --> 00:09:25 lot, mentorship lectures, too, but a lot of you guys weren't there. So I said, I
93 00:09:25 --> 00:09:34 think my word for it, October 15, 2025, for the index futures market. And
94 00:09:34 --> 00:09:39 obviously the one I'm focusing on primarily still is just the commission
95 00:09:39 --> 00:09:46 the Christmas rather December contract for NQ mini futures. We're starting off
96 00:09:46 --> 00:09:50 with the regular trading hours chart here. So regular trading hour shows the
97 00:09:51 --> 00:09:54 difference between where we settled yesterday, at 4:14pm Eastern Time, and
98 00:09:54 --> 00:10:00 then we opened up at 930 Eastern time. So that difference is the open. Range
99 00:10:00 --> 00:10:04 gap, or regular trading hours opening range gap, and it's abbreviated by RTH,
100 00:10:05 --> 00:10:09 O, R G. The high is the opening price, because it's higher than where we
101 00:10:09 --> 00:10:12 settled at the previous day. That's regular trading hours opening range gap.
102 00:10:12 --> 00:10:19 Low, this is also the price level that you would have noted as the 930 opening
103 00:10:19 --> 00:10:24 price. Okay, so you can always add that in the description as well. Midnight
104 00:10:24 --> 00:10:27 opening price, Eastern Time. I mentioned that yesterday in the live stream. You
105 00:10:27 --> 00:10:31 want to have that price, and then we had a sell side liquidity pool, and we'll
106 00:10:31 --> 00:10:35 look at that in here. I kind of posted that already and stole the thunder, but
107 00:10:35 --> 00:10:39 I told you you needed to do this for your homework, but the market trades up
108 00:10:39 --> 00:10:45 into this fair value. Got what's the city I told you to have that and grade
109 00:10:45 --> 00:10:53 it. And those levels were shown to you yesterday. And 25 111.75 that's this
110 00:10:53 --> 00:11:01 level here. And, man, it's almost as if the stuff I teach works precisely so
111 00:11:01 --> 00:11:06 market rallies up, stops dead in its tracks. Looks like a big bull flag. And
112 00:11:06 --> 00:11:09 then it's not a bull flag, okay? And then we have sell side bounce, buy side
113 00:11:09 --> 00:11:16 efficiency. We hit it here, return back into it. Break away from the consequence
114 00:11:16 --> 00:11:20 of that daily Sibi, which is this candlesticks low, this candlesticks
115 00:11:20 --> 00:11:29 high. There's that 25,000, 0630, level there, and we break, we come back to rev
116 00:11:29 --> 00:11:37 trading hours, opening range, gap high, or opening price at 930, Eastern Time.
117 00:11:38 --> 00:11:41 Trade through it, come right back up, hits it. This is how you see it. As a
118 00:11:41 --> 00:11:47 short you have all this UN filled price action and traded there overnight in
119 00:11:47 --> 00:11:52 electronic trading hours, but in record trading hours, it's like a big vacuum.
120 00:11:52 --> 00:11:57 Remember, I was telling you that if you have I think the analogy I used was
121 00:11:58 --> 00:12:02 these vacuum sealed bags, and you use your vacuum cleaner to suck the air out
122 00:12:02 --> 00:12:05 of it and just store things much more efficiently, because it flattens it
123 00:12:05 --> 00:12:08 down. When you break that seal, what's going to happen? All the air is going to
124 00:12:08 --> 00:12:11 rush back right back into it? Well, that's what's happening here when you
125 00:12:11 --> 00:12:17 break the seal. Goes back to the rate of trading hours, opening range gap high or
126 00:12:17 --> 00:12:23 930 opening price hits. It starts to break down. Trade right back up. And
127 00:12:23 --> 00:12:29 then we go right to inside the opening range gap quadrants. So here's opening
128 00:12:29 --> 00:12:34 range gap, high, upper quadrant, consequent encroachment. Lower quadrant,
129 00:12:34 --> 00:12:44 low. Okay, and we have price breaking aggressively here, consolidating one
130 00:12:44 --> 00:12:49 more break lower, trading back to midnight, opening price and trades to
131 00:12:49 --> 00:12:54 the lower quadrant. Here takes one more time touch that before it breaks lower
132 00:12:54 --> 00:13:01 and completely closes in the gap. Now I want to take you over to the rate of
133 00:13:01 --> 00:13:09 training hours chart, and I showed you on Twitter or x this in here. And then
134 00:13:09 --> 00:13:14 we rallied up, and we come back right back down in during the macro 750,
135 00:13:14 --> 00:13:20 Eastern Time to 810, that's my ICT macro time. This trades right down into a
136 00:13:21 --> 00:13:25 quadrant level. I want you to look at your charts, and you'll see it. It stops
137 00:13:25 --> 00:13:31 dead, right on right on it to the tick during the macro. It's probably random,
138 00:13:31 --> 00:13:36 and it rallies up, consolidates, and then we have this drop down at the
139 00:13:36 --> 00:13:42 opening price at 930 so opening range first 30 minutes. It's not 15 minutes. I
140 00:13:42 --> 00:13:47 don't care what anybody tells you, it's 30 minute interval. We drop down during
141 00:13:47 --> 00:13:53 the first 30 minutes and then the first presented fair value gap. Here we trade,
142 00:13:53 --> 00:14:00 excuse me, we trade down into the low of the morning, and then we rally back up
143 00:14:00 --> 00:14:03 to first present to fair value gap, which is now going to act because we
144 00:14:03 --> 00:14:10 have relative equal heights up here, smooth edges. I was in Lumi traders on
145 00:14:10 --> 00:14:13 live stream, and I called this out live the watch to first present to fair value
146 00:14:13 --> 00:14:20 gap, and then use this as the draw. And we opened up with a run here, dropped
147 00:14:20 --> 00:14:26 down into consequent encroachment, and then volleyed higher, taking out the 25
148 00:14:26 --> 00:14:30 zero to five level. That was the only thing I had time to kind of like
149 00:14:30 --> 00:14:34 illustrate. And then it rallied up even more. Went back to regular trading
150 00:14:34 --> 00:14:40 hours, open range, gap high, accumulated more here and ripped higher up into
151 00:14:40 --> 00:14:48 25,001 10. And 111 which is here, that's this upper quadrant of this city.
152 00:14:49 --> 00:14:53 Perfect. Are you starting to see what I mean by I'm not surprised by these
153 00:14:53 --> 00:14:57 things. And when everybody in the past has always said, you know, he's got to
154 00:14:57 --> 00:15:00 be cherry picking, he's got to be photoshopping. It, it's got. To be
155 00:15:00 --> 00:15:05 something extra. It's got to be all these different recorded devices. And
156 00:15:05 --> 00:15:07 then he picks the one that works perfectly. I don't need any of that
157 00:15:07 --> 00:15:12 stuff. Like, I don't need any of that like, I don't need crutches. So you can
158 00:15:12 --> 00:15:16 see how the things I'm teaching you, just like I did in that live stream
159 00:15:16 --> 00:15:22 yesterday, that live stream yesterday, while albeit vulgar, it was literally me
160 00:15:22 --> 00:15:28 giving you a Master's class in price action, algorithmically with my own
161 00:15:28 --> 00:15:32 language. That way, you can see it's like me pulling the veil back, and you
162 00:15:32 --> 00:15:38 can see the real me, like this is the stuff I have had for decades, and nobody
163 00:15:38 --> 00:15:42 else has had it. And I'm just revealing a little bit of things that people say
164 00:15:42 --> 00:15:46 all the time, like fair value gaps and imbalances and order blocks. It's a
165 00:15:46 --> 00:15:54 guess, wrong, wrong Cubby. This is precise. It's really, really perfect.
166 00:15:54 --> 00:15:57 It's perfect. And when you understand the science, when you blend them
167 00:15:57 --> 00:16:06 together, all you're doing is waiting for that to agree with time. Time. When
168 00:16:06 --> 00:16:13 this market turns here. It's entering a macro. This at this price, the opening
169 00:16:13 --> 00:16:19 price at 930 it's during a macro. It rips and goes higher.
170 00:16:21 --> 00:16:25 It spends its time up here, time distortion, then it folds, goes lower,
171 00:16:26 --> 00:16:32 trades right back up into the opening price at 930 we consolidate this segment
172 00:16:32 --> 00:16:35 of price action here is just the overlapping of this rectangle in pink
173 00:16:35 --> 00:16:39 and this being in a different queue. So it's going to give you this kind of
174 00:16:39 --> 00:16:43 color here. That's not me showing any kind of like inversion fair value.
175 00:16:43 --> 00:16:50 That's, that's what I'm not representing there. The inversion is the yellowish,
176 00:16:50 --> 00:16:55 almost pale orange. What's being shown here, this discoloration is just because
177 00:16:55 --> 00:17:00 they're overlapping. There's nothing I can do about that. So we, we trade back
178 00:17:00 --> 00:17:05 to first visit, to fair value gap in here. And then we fold over down to
179 00:17:05 --> 00:17:09 lower quadrant of the opening range gap, down to the full closure of it. And then
180 00:17:09 --> 00:17:16 we trade down into 0.75 or the lower quadrant of this wick, because now we're
181 00:17:16 --> 00:17:20 working back down into the range of this candlestick. So if once we go below this
182 00:17:20 --> 00:17:25 candlesticks closing price. We have to have these levels in mind on our chart.
183 00:17:25 --> 00:17:30 And you can see it trades right down to the lower quadrant there at 24,006 72
184 00:17:30 --> 00:17:38 and a half. I'm saying up. I should be saying the upper quadrant, not the lower
185 00:17:38 --> 00:17:44 quadrant. The upper quadrant here at 24,672 and a half. And that's what
186 00:17:44 --> 00:17:48 you're seeing here. And if you go even further, you'll see that there's
187 00:17:48 --> 00:17:52 relative equal lows here. The one to the right is slightly higher. That means the
188 00:17:52 --> 00:17:56 strong candidate for a run on liquidity. And it dove all the way down, hit that
189 00:17:56 --> 00:18:01 and upper quadrant of this discount wick. And then look at the repelling
190 00:18:02 --> 00:18:06 back up that it showed here, pretty wild volatility. I told you that was going to
191 00:18:06 --> 00:18:09 happen yesterday. I told you, that's what's coming. And if you're not
192 00:18:09 --> 00:18:12 careful, if you don't know what you're doing, you're trying to trade without
193 00:18:12 --> 00:18:15 stop losses, because you think you're going to be better than the average
194 00:18:16 --> 00:18:20 bear, you're going to have your clock cleaned. And is there simply no reason
195 00:18:20 --> 00:18:25 for doing it like that. So that's it for today. Short, sweet, direct to the
196 00:18:25 --> 00:18:29 point, and I'm going to wish you all a very pleasant evening, and if Lord
197 00:18:29 --> 00:18:31 willing, I will touch base with you tomorrow.