ICT Market Maker Primer Course - 13 - Essentials To Trading The Daily Bias.srt
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ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back, this teachings going to be
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specifically dealing with essential to trading the daily
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bias. Okay, folks, we're looking at the dollar indexes the
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daily chart, and I'm going to cover some essential sun, my
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understanding about how to trade daily bias. Before we
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begin, just understand that this is not to teach you every
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single day Monday through Friday of every month, what the
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daily bias is going to be tomorrow. I don't have that
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understanding for every single pair, but I do know how to
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find a bias across all the pairs. So as a scalper, I can
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excel by looking at using some of these concepts and
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obviously things that I teach in my tutorials, both free and
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in my paid mentorship. So I'm going to cover one or two
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things here that I think are paramount, that will help you
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at least try to get a hold on daily bias. So if I look at a
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daily chart, what we're trying to do is ascertain the
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likelihood of it being up close or down close day. Now,
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there's absolutely no guarantee of what I'm going to tell
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you here being accurate. So you always have to use that as a
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reminder, because I'm human, and you're human too. So you're
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going to make mistakes just as well as I can make a mistake.
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And I can be wrong. So I don't want you to take what I'm
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stating here, as the panacea be all end all to understanding
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what daily biases, there's a number of things that we can do
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to get a better opinion about what the daily bias will be
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tomorrow or today. But it doesn't guarantee results that are
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going to be positive. So you always have to consider that
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okay, but it's certainly Some things that you can practice
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in a demo account and build your understanding about daily
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bias in the sandbox, if you will of a demo. So, I like to
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look for intermediate term and short term highs and
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intermediate term or short term lows. And what I have here
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is I have this high delineated and had this low these highs
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up here
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this low,
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this low, this high and this group of lows down here, okay,
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which is just an extension of this low back here. Now I
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teach that is when the markets not in a trending model, and
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for a parabolic move up or down. The market is going to work
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off of traditional support resistance theory. Now the
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problem is which support resistance do we use? So I look for
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the key turning points. There are obvious ones now you can
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use these short term ones in here, but then When is here
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because the market, the market moved from that low all the
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way up to this high, consolidated try one more time to go
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higher, failed, went lower, constant support here, found
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resistance found support tried one more time failure, the
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market moved higher. So we're looking at the ebb and flow of
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how the market moves from a point of overbought to oversold
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to equilibrium and consolidation and a news move that would
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take us to an overbought or oversold condition. That's a
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range bound market, which is where we're seeing the dollar
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trading right now has a slightly bullish bias to it and it
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has had that for a couple weeks now. But for now, I just
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wanted to cover how I interpret the first thing I look for
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is are we coming off of a run above an old high that may see
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it trade back below it or are we trading below an old low
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that may see it trade back above it? But I do is I look for
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these intermediate term price points and swing highs and
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swing lows on the daily to see if we have moved above an old
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high because we could very easily reject that and trade
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lower. Or if we trade below an old low, we could see it come
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back above it and stay inside the previous determined range.
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So if we look for candles or daily ranges that run above and
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all high, chances are we could see continue going higher.
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But we also have to be mindful that we could see an eventual
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turnaround or reversal and it could start to go back below
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that old high because this could be very easily seen as a
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false break. Same way with old lows. As we see here, the
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market does in fact trade through it tries to make a lower
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low, couldn't do it failed again and then started to trade
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higher. So we have to have these intermediate term swing
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points on our daily chart because they're going to be
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potential reversal points failing to Follow through after
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breaking in old high or breaking resistance or failing to
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make a lower low and trend lower after breaking below old
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support. So, when the market is not trending, this is a
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scenario that it will typically trade within, which is a
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classic support resistance theory. The problem with support
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resistance theory is which high and which low in which
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resistance and what support Do you use. So, I start with
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these swing points like this or turning points where it
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could potentially be reversals and can see how price events
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he does straight above this high here finds a measure of
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resistance, it consolidate so we're in a point of
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equilibrium and the markets digesting whether or not it
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wants to stay at these levels for trade higher or trade
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lower as we see the market trades below. These lows in here.
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Can't rally above and collapses trades below. It reprice is
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all the way down below an old low Then rejects, comes back
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into an area of consolidation then rejects again, expansion
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lower, finds a low, cannot find momentum through it
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consolidates around it tries one more time to go lower, then
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trades higher. Every time the market breaks a swing high.
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And if we look to the left of that swing high, where's the
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next old intermediate term high, this one here. So there's
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nothing for it to potentially reverse inside of until we get
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up to here. So if we're going to use simple classic
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resistance and support levels, we can see that this is the
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one we're gonna be looking for. Okay, so if we're trading
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around here, and we're looking here, this is gonna be in the
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form of resistance. So the markets want to try to get back
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up to that level. The market does, in fact, try to make an
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attempt to do that. But when we have these ideas, suggesting
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classic support Short term resistance, okay? That's what
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this whole level is here. The markets tried to go through it
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one more time, try to get through an old low, and then trade
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it throw it back above this swing high here. So what I'm
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going to teach you is this is what I look for for daily
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bias. Now, there's a lot of folks on social media that were
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looking for a weaker dollar. And ignoring these types of
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phenomena, and I'm going to show you here, you're going to
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have that error as well. But if we know that there is a
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support level here, we tried several times ago below it, and
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then we had a swing high broken, what's the market really
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telling you? It wants to go higher. So what's the next level
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to reach for? This short term resistance level? Okay, so we
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can see that it wants to get to 9417. That's the high of
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this candle here. So what do we do at that point? Once we
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clear this high here, what's the best Well, if you look at
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this little diagram, I have it right here. This is gonna
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refer to the previous day now this could be a bullish or
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bearish day doesn't make a difference. But when the market
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is bullish as we've outlined Today we're here we're going to
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be looking for the previous day's high to be the target and
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the previous day's low to be supported. In other words,
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there shouldn't be any movement below the previous day's
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low. It should all focus on the buy side means reaching for
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the previous day's high. When the markets bearish this
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scenario would be reversed. We would be looking for price
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having an inability to get above the previous day's high and
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see the previous day's low using this criteria here, okay,
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once we broke this, candles, swing high here, daily bias on
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this candle and this candle and this is a Sunday we would
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look for Monday as well. And then Tuesday we would look for
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bullishness, so if we use This same theory,
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we're going to draw
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this particular candle right here is the one that broke the
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swing high and then we know they have a resistance level it
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could probably reach for. So we're going to be looking for
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the next day
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to trade
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not to the previous day's low, but to and through previous
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day's high. So this next day, what's the daily bias? Here's
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the opening, what's the bias? It's going to want to reach
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for this high. So where's it wanting to go up? So what are
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we gonna focus on? previous day's low or previous day's
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high? previous day's high? Because it's bullish, it's
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wanting to go higher. So the market trades up creates up
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clothes day. Then we take this thing thing and apply it to
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the new day
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okay, So we have a very simple approach
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this little box up here. Now we have yesterday this is what
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this one this candles date on December 8. This candles last
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Thursday's tie, which would be 93 ad market opens and we're
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going to see it trade through that. And with the
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anticipation it's going to eventually try to reach for this
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daily high. So when this happens again, we don't think about
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the daily low from the previous day. We're focusing on the
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movement through the previous day's high and or eventually
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reaching to this level here on the daily market closes in
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the middle of the range. Here is Sunday's. Trading then
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Monday the same phenomenon you would look for the market to
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want to trade through what on Monday we would look for this
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previous Friday's low could be supported and we would look
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for price to run through previous Fridays Hi, again, this is
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Sunday. We wouldn't expect anything there. Monday we see it
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open here. A little bit of movement above it, but it does in
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fact, Pierce Friday's low. And it comes back and closes,
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where it opens. So is there any significant change in the
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underlying direction? No. Can we trade to this high yet? No.
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So we take that same premise.
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Now we apply to
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this candle, which is Monday of this particular week of the
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recording. And we see it open here. So what's the bias?
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We're looking for the previous day's high. Why? Because we
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have yet to trade back to this old resistance level. market
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opens here, trades up trades through it, but look what it
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does. It comes right back inside the daily range. Okay, in
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the next trading session right now, at the time of this
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recording, it's 9:26pm New York time on December 12. 2017
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and the candle is already starting here, it opened a little
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bit of moving up, and now we're moving a little bit lower.
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So it may want to trade a little bit higher, go a little bit
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higher through this old high. But as we're reaching for
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these intermediate term levels on the daily chart, we're
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factoring in, does it have enough range or reach for above
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or below, and then we take that approach and apply
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immediately to the previous day's high and low as we have
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here. And what you're determining is, if we're bullish,
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we're gonna be focusing on the previous day's high for
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momentum, and more bearish, or we focus on the previous
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day's low for momentum. Very rarely do you see both sides of
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the previous day's candle tagged or traded through? If it
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does, it's usually in decisiveness, or it's going to be a
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reversal soon, and they're clearing the board on both sides
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of the marketplace. And when you start seeing those types of
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things, get prepared, because the market could be in fact
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about the reverse. You can see that actually has thing here,
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previous day's high and low here the next day trades through
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it, and it's low as violated too. So we're about to see a
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reversal next day reversal. Okay, and I'll show you another
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example of that.
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See here, we have here as well.
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We have a Thursdays range. Now this low comes in at 9442.
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And the low end here is 9442. So it's equal but still very,
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very close to the high. This is Sunday and a Monday. Nothing
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shown there but end up getting a very, very important high
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eventually afterwards. And now this is called an outside day
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when you have a previous day's range that's violated with
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this example it to as high as 9398, the lowest 9367 this
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candles low is 9358 and the highest 99 United services is an
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outside day with a down close that's typically bullish
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reason why it creates a false break above the previous day's
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high and then closed on the low if we're in a bullish
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market, but overall in that occurs, generally sets up a
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really good buy scenario. I've learned that from Larry
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Williams and that's from like old school stuff. But you got
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to have a context behind it can't just take it outside, they
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would have done closing this naturally assume it's going to
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be a bullish day. But you can see it does, in fact, give a
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huge opportunity to be a buyer on this day. And my
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application the outside days when it does that, it sets up a
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potential short term reversal. What les Williams brought to
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the table with it is it creates a short term oversold
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scenario. So it doesn't necessarily mean it's a reversal. It
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just means it's maintains a continuation pattern, according
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to his definitions, all right. And here's another scenario
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here outside day. We have the candle here. The high comes in
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at 9323 and a low is 9280. One, the very next day the highs
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taken out 9324, new lows 90 to 75. So reversal day, and then
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we can see the market doesn't want to trade higher as a
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result. So you won't always get the outside day at turning
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points, but I like to look for it because it builds a lot of
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confidence behind it. And by using these tools, okay, and
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when the market also breaks, more or less, a swing high of
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importance, and we have a level that doesn't have anything
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else until we get to hear the bull it's bullish, okay. It's
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bullish, avoid this whole scenario, like looking at this
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high to this low point is on looking for optimal trade entry
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in sell off and all that stuff. It's already shown a
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willingness to want to go below this low multiple times. And
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then it broke a swing high, so the momentum is bullish. And
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that's going to reach for this now if we're doing that
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analysis on the daily for the dollar index. And we've
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arrived at a bullishness For the dollar, what does that
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translate for foreign currency in terms of daily bias? It's
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going to be a mirror image. So if we go over to the euro
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dollar, we can see that the euro dollar has been bearish as
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we would reasonably expect. Notice that every single day,
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the daily high is not concerned with at all it's the
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previous day's low. It trades through it. So now we have a
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low here. What's it going to do? It's going to want to trade
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to the previous day's low. It trades through it. So what's
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the next storyline? opens trades down below the previous
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day's low? Next day? What's it gonna do? It's gonna trade
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through not only the previous day's low, but what's it
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really reaching for that old intermediate term low on the
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daily. I'll give you some lipstick on the charts. You can
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see that premium a little bit. So this low here, and its
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price is starting to drop down. It's reaching for this level
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here. Why? Because it's basically the opposite of what we're
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seeing. done here. dollar is reaching for this intermediate
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term high. Well, the Euro dollar is reaching for me term
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low. Each day we're focusing on again this phenomenon here.
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We're focusing on the Euro because dollars bullish, we're
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focusing on the previous day's low and that's where it's
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going to be aiming for to it in through it. That's how you
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think about it when it's bearish. Back to the euro dollar,
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every single trading day opens creates a small little tail
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power three, Judas swing, sell it down close, reach for the
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previous day's low. Next day opens false rally genius swing,
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sell it reach for the previous day's low, does it next day
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opens rallies false rally, Judas swing, sell it, fade it
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reach for the previous day's low boom handled next day open
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small little tail trades lower comes back off the low. Okay.
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We're still targeting here. Okay, we're still reaching for
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that. Next day, well, this is going to be Sunday. So here's
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a Monday trading range.
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It opens
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rallies up, get a short term over bought scenario comes off
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the highs, that is a potential reversal scenario. The Next
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Day Saints same skit, we're looking for what to market to
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open trade below the previous day's low and then ultimately,
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it trades through that. Forget Sunday, go to Friday, it
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trades through Friday's range and then ultimately reach for
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this low here. So we're looking for that scenario here
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potentially to trade through this low still is there. And so
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the daily buys today on December 12 2017 should be a move
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lower below this low using what I'm teaching you here. Okay.
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So hopefully, this has been insightful to you guys. It gives
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you a little bit more framework to work with and obviously
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there's so many things that we can build on to build bias
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and intermarket relationships as well. But I tried to
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implement rate, the application of the dollar index analysis
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and also to justify what we view in terms of foreign
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currencies bullish or bearish ness as well and using daily
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bias.
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Okay folks,
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hopefully you enjoyed this presentation. If you liked this
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presentation and you want to find more, you can visit my
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website at the inner circle trader.com