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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-11-27 07:20
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3 ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is a short little ditty on forex. Now last time
4 we spoke, I gave you a lesson on the previous Friday, Asian range. And just to
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8 show you it wasn't a fluke, I want you to take a look at the economic calendar.
9 And this was for November 23 2020. And I'm showing the euro dollar and pound and
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13 dollar at 315 during in London open on Monday, he had French flash service PMI
14 then at 330, you had a German flash manufacturing PMI. Therefore, I am you had
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18 to flash manufacturing PMI and then all the way to 9:45am you had the US flash
19 manufacturing PMI. Now once you take a look at the numbers that came out for
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23 these respective reports, the forecast was 39.2. The French came in at 38 even
24 the German PMI number was forecasted 56 came in better at 57.9. Now, generally
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28 the market digest this information as better or quote unquote, good for the
29 currency. So this number here 57.9 being better than 56 indicates from a quote
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33 unquote fundamental basis that the Euro should view that as bullish. The Flash
34 manufacturing PMI number came in at 53.6. Just modestly above what was the
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38 forecast at 53.2. Now remember this when we look at the price action. Okay, so
39 from the fundamental stance, if you just look at these numbers, it looks like it
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43 should be bullish for euro. But you have to consider the economic calendar later
44 in the day in New York at 9:45am. mean impact news comes out for the dollar for
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48 its respective manufacturing PMI number, the forecast was 52.5 unnatural came in
49 at 56.7. These numbers here during London gave traders the willingness to want
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53 to be long. And then when we came up to the seven o'clock in the morning time,
54 that's when I made a notation on my community tab. I said this is where you
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58 would quote unquote, pay the trader take something off. Now my students know
59 that we're looking for continuation lower on the dollar, until we took out an
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63 old daily low. And that happens, right when these numbers carry us into seven
64 o'clock in the morning, New York time. That starts the ICT, New York open kill
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68 zone. Now if we take this insight over to the chart, here's what we have just in
69 raw price action. Now, I'll expand these charts in a moment. But I want you to
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73 take a look at the sudden reversals that took place. We are in a low volume week
74 that's traditionally seen because of the US holiday. Now I understand there's a
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78 lot of countries out there that don't celebrate like we do in the US. But
79 there's a lot of money looking to make a move in the early part of the week. So
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83 just know that we have thin market conditions. That means there's not a lot of
84 volume when the market is bullish or bearish from a central bank level. The
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88 repricing can be sudden and drastic. Now I'm not saying this was all that
89 drastic, but I'm sure it took a lot of you off guard today. And you can see the
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93 run here on the dollar just as a mirror image of what we see in the euro. And
94 take a look at the price action in here. study this for a moment. And then I'll
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98 add the annotations. All right, if you're not ready to pause the video because
99 I'm going to show everything on the chart in terms of annotation. Okay, so
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103 here's the previous Friday's trading, Friday's high, the low here consolidation
104 to the week, close. Then we have trading going into a new week. And then we have
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108 buyside liquidity resting here and the basa liquidity from Friday's high. Now
109 here's the Asian range on Friday for Friday's calculation, and we do not use
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113 Mondays Asian range time. Okay. The algorithm is going to remember and refer
114 back to the previous week. Now if this was contrived if it was all just made up.
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118 Just cool. incidence, okay, this shouldn't work out like you see, but here it
119 is. Now, you see other people out there talk about Asian range. And the idea
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123 that I use when I look at the Asian range is completely
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127 opposed to everything else out there, you'll never see another trader outside of
128 myself, or my students obviously refer to refer to another day, or in this case,
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132 previous week's Asian range. Because they don't consider something like that.
133 Okay? So when you look at things like this, it's a signature that indicates that
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137 these markets are absolutely manipulated, controlled, to the nth degree. And I
138 want you to take a look at the Asian range here, okay, on Friday, so he
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142 projected out one standard range. So this is one Asian range, measured above and
143 stacked right on top of each other. Here's one Asian range below it. The second
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147 Asian range below that, and the third Asian range below that. Okay, and this is
148 all calculated on Friday's data. Now, if you carry these levels out into the
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152 future, you get the high here, what's the high on this candle 1.1906 and zero
153 pets? Well, it just happens to be the actual high the day, the Asian range low
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157 here for three ranges projected lower, we have a range projection of 1.18009,
158 pets are off only by a very small degree in the form of 1.1800, and three pets.
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162 So in this case, I'm only off by six pets, that's not bad. Now, I'm going to
163 challenge you to look at this idea here and find that with your pivot points,
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167 okay? Find that with TDI, okay, find that with all of this other stuff. Okay,
168 this might look like indicators, it's just measuring price relative to time. So
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172 it's my time and price theory. The first factor, its most important when it
173 comes to algorithmic trading is time. There's specific things that happen at
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177 specific times. And if they don't occur, there is no setup. Doesn't matter what
178 price is doing. If the time element is not there, and then price overlaps with
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182 it. Those two things have to agree. But the first and foremost and most
183 important is the time element. Okay. So if you look at this idea, we ran above
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187 Friday's high, and above the initial highs that were forming here. And during
188 consolidation here, the market had a protection above Friday's high, and then
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192 slammed into this level right there. Now again, thousands of you 10s of
193 thousands of you got that alert this morning, on my community tab, it's still
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197 there, you can still see it. And it says very plainly that take something off
198 here. Pe the trader happens right in here and it hits that level. And this is
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202 what you get now what's actually occurring here. The market sees the Euro flash
203 PMI at 330. That's what this level is here. Okay, so low forms at 330. Again,
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207 back to the calendar. At 330. We had good numbers coming out 57.9 versus 256.
208 It's modestly better, but nonetheless, it's better they pump it up and above
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212 Friday's high to just any random level above Friday's high. How do you know
213 Michael? How do you know how far it's going to go ICT? No one could know these
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217 things. Well, here it is using the IDF taught you for free right here on this
218 YouTube channel. one standard deviation on the Asian range above it using
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222 Friday's data projected out in time. Bingo. Hello. Find that in your textbooks.
223 So what happens after that it hits it. That's where you would scale out take
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227 profits or completely collapse your trade. Or if you are a contrarian trader,
228 you can look at that as an idea that okay, we do have cells out of Kota down
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232 here and Monday might happen to be a day where you kept a little bit more
233 retracement lower. This is why I don't like Mondays, Mondays tend to create the
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237 precursor to the weekly range. I'm willing to give up Monday's opportunity. Now
238 there's some of you that are hard and fast. Oh, there's no way I would ever give
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242 up trading on Mondays I got to take every single day as a trading opportunity.
243 Okay, that's fine. That's you, just not me. But for me to have continuity,
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247 consistency and longevity as a career. trader. I have to have rules. And these
248 rules have to be pretty significant and informed that I'm no longer going to
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252 just guess I have to look at things objectively measure them. And if I can do
253 that, with a fixed set of rules with a protocol and process in place, that I'm
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257 going to hopefully overcome fear, greed and emotional stimuli that would
258 otherwise wreck another traders mindset.
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262 The algorithm extends price above Friday's high, once it hits this specific
263 high, with high one standard deviation, Asian range from Friday's data. This is
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267 the same stuff I taught you the last time and years ago when I introduced this
268 concept. At 945, this candle right there, what is going on there? Well go back
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272 to the calendar at 945. The US dollar has 56.7, much more improvement than what
273 was forecasted at 52 and a half. So between the two here, okay, the dollar has
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277 much more, quote unquote, fundamental driver behind it being stronger or good
278 for the currency. Again, this number here, if it comes out better than the
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282 forecast that's viewed as a good or an underlying bullish scenario for the
283 currency. Now, that's not always the case. That's why fundamental data by itself
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287 can hurt you. So you have to blend some things. Now. There's a lot of
288 individuals that would have looked at the price action this morning in euro and
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292 said, Well, this is going to keep on going and not even consider taking
293 something off or taking your position as a long and partially taking something
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297 off or paying the trader or they just made this leave their original stoploss in
298 place and then get caught in something like that. That's why I teach my students
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302 in my viewers on this channel to take partial profits. Because while you're
303 learning and developing as a trader, you're not going to have the experience to
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307 anticipate the likelihood of this type of thing occurring. Now, remember, I said
308 moments ago, the things that occur in price are linked to time. And price. I
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312 posted that comment on my community tab on my YouTube channel. Right as we are
313 going to the seven o'clock hour in New York time, because I understand that that
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317 window of opportunity begins at seven o'clock in the morning and we may get a
318 potential market reversal profile. You can't argue with it, folks. The element
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322 of displacement Here comes on the heels of a much better number for the dollar
323 than that of that was bullish for Euro here. So the only thing the algorithm did
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327 here was allow the market to build up a protraction above Friday's high hold
328 price in here. What do traders see in that regard? They see bullish bull flags.
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332 Okay, they look at this run above these highs. I think that's a bullish
333 breakout. What is remaining in the marketplace after it gets above Friday's
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337 high. We have a single swing low here. So yes, that's a liquidity pool for sell
338 side. But more specifically, rollback to Friday's data. We have relative equals
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342 what recipe below their sauce on liquidity. So if they are engineering a run on
343 Fridays Hi, that's tradable. You can be a buyer there you can be a buyer into
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347 Sunday's opening, and ride that up. 4550 pips there's nothing wrong with that.
348 That's a one week opportunity or a one shot one kill scenario as I teach it. But
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352 once we're above Friday's high, you have to be nimble. And also, I'm encouraging
353 everyone, that's my student to respect the level of elevated risk right now.
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357 Because of all the uncertainty with the US presidency, all the illness and
358 impact it has on nations and their economies. We are waiting for the next shoe
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362 to drop at any given moment, something can come out and caused a rapid repricing
363 in the marketplace, and you will be completely taken off guard. Like today, if
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367 you saw this type of move here. And it surprised you. It's because you don't
368 understand the elements of the risk that's involved in this environment right
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372 now. And technical analysis, not in the sense that you can find it in the
373 trading books. But the things that I'm teaching here on this YouTube channel,
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377 they're there because it's built around the principles of time and price in
378 algorithmic theory. So the market has a displacement, lower running out Friday's
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382 lows and projects rate down to three Asian range below their regular Asian range
383 here. Beautiful turning point there. Now I'm going to challenge you and I want
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387 you to Consider everything I'm showing you here. How much more proof? Do you
388 need to see?
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392 Did you see any kind of moving averages here? How about diagonal trend lines?
393 Was there any harmonic patterns here that I use any Zoo animal references? Okay,
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397 harmonic bat, a harmonic shark, a butterfly. We don't use those things, because
398 all you need to know is time and price. And their specific characteristics and
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402 signatures that repeat in the marketplace. And unless you are taught, you are
403 never going to know these things. They're not in books. No other person is going
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407 to teach it but me. And now my obviously I have students all around the world.
408 It's the we have an army of people growing all around this globe. And they're
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412 all starting to think, like I'm training than the think. And it's not retail.
413 What about this looks familiar. Because it doesn't look familiar to any of you
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417 outside of what I have taught in recent years. And this is something that you
418 can see form every single week. Now, I don't know about you, but when I
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422 discovered this, it was like I was waiting for the knock at the door. I was
423 waiting for the black suits. come knocking on my door, because it felt like it
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427 was forbidden knowledge and I should not have it. Because it repeats like this.
428 This is what I refer to as Swiss time piece precision. You can't escape it. You
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432 can't write it off as coincidence. You can't look at it and say well, he never
433 really said to use Friday's range for the Asian range for Monday's trading.
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437 Because I did. In fact, it was just the last video I gave you on YouTube. So for
438 the pundits out there that wrestle with me from the sidelines or sending me an
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442 email, just know that I do this to encourage you to dig deeper into the things I
443 teach, because you haven't seen the half of it yet. For everyone in the United
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447 States, I would like to wish you a very safe and happy Thanksgiving, everyone
448 else around the world. Please be safe, respectful, elevated risk that we have
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452 right now. And I'll talk to you again next weekend.