Skip to Content
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-11 14:56
Show last authors
1 (% class="hover min" %)
2 |1 |00:00:15,570 ~-~-> 00:00:29,310 |ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is a short little ditty on forex. Now last time we spoke, I gave you a lesson on the previous Friday, Asian range. And just to
3 |2 |00:00:29,310 ~-~-> 00:00:42,180 |show you it wasn't a fluke, I want you to take a look at the economic calendar. And this was for November 23 2020. And I'm showing the euro dollar and pound and
4 |3 |00:00:42,180 ~-~-> 00:00:59,970 |dollar at 315 during in London open on Monday, he had French flash service PMI then at 330, you had a German flash manufacturing PMI. Therefore, I am you had
5 |4 |00:00:59,970 ~-~-> 00:01:12,960 |to flash manufacturing PMI and then all the way to 9:45am you had the US flash manufacturing PMI. Now once you take a look at the numbers that came out for
6 |5 |00:01:13,440 ~-~-> 00:01:28,410 |these respective reports, the forecast was 39.2. The French came in at 38 even the German PMI number was forecasted 56 came in better at 57.9. Now, generally
7 |6 |00:01:28,410 ~-~-> 00:01:43,080 |the market digest this information as better or quote unquote, good for the currency. So this number here 57.9 being better than 56 indicates from a quote
8 |7 |00:01:43,080 ~-~-> 00:01:57,300 |unquote fundamental basis that the Euro should view that as bullish. The Flash manufacturing PMI number came in at 53.6. Just modestly above what was the
9 |8 |00:01:57,300 ~-~-> 00:02:08,460 |forecast at 53.2. Now remember this when we look at the price action. Okay, so from the fundamental stance, if you just look at these numbers, it looks like it
10 |9 |00:02:08,460 ~-~-> 00:02:19,080 |should be bullish for euro. But you have to consider the economic calendar later in the day in New York at 9:45am. mean impact news comes out for the dollar for
11 |10 |00:02:19,080 ~-~-> 00:02:35,580 |its respective manufacturing PMI number, the forecast was 52.5 unnatural came in at 56.7. These numbers here during London gave traders the willingness to want
12 |11 |00:02:35,580 ~-~-> 00:02:47,340 |to be long. And then when we came up to the seven o'clock in the morning time, that's when I made a notation on my community tab. I said this is where you
13 |12 |00:02:47,340 ~-~-> 00:02:55,350 |would quote unquote, pay the trader take something off. Now my students know that we're looking for continuation lower on the dollar, until we took out an
14 |13 |00:02:55,350 ~-~-> 00:03:08,460 |old daily low. And that happens, right when these numbers carry us into seven o'clock in the morning, New York time. That starts the ICT, New York open kill
15 |14 |00:03:08,460 ~-~-> 00:03:19,080 |zone. Now if we take this insight over to the chart, here's what we have just in raw price action. Now, I'll expand these charts in a moment. But I want you to
16 |15 |00:03:19,080 ~-~-> 00:03:33,240 |take a look at the sudden reversals that took place. We are in a low volume week that's traditionally seen because of the US holiday. Now I understand there's a
17 |16 |00:03:33,240 ~-~-> 00:03:42,510 |lot of countries out there that don't celebrate like we do in the US. But there's a lot of money looking to make a move in the early part of the week. So
18 |17 |00:03:43,140 ~-~-> 00:03:53,760 |just know that we have thin market conditions. That means there's not a lot of volume when the market is bullish or bearish from a central bank level. The
19 |18 |00:03:53,760 ~-~-> 00:04:04,050 |repricing can be sudden and drastic. Now I'm not saying this was all that drastic, but I'm sure it took a lot of you off guard today. And you can see the
20 |19 |00:04:04,050 ~-~-> 00:04:11,850 |run here on the dollar just as a mirror image of what we see in the euro. And take a look at the price action in here. study this for a moment. And then I'll
21 |20 |00:04:11,850 ~-~-> 00:04:24,600 |add the annotations. All right, if you're not ready to pause the video because I'm going to show everything on the chart in terms of annotation. Okay, so
22 |21 |00:04:24,600 ~-~-> 00:04:37,440 |here's the previous Friday's trading, Friday's high, the low here consolidation to the week, close. Then we have trading going into a new week. And then we have
23 |22 |00:04:37,440 ~-~-> 00:04:48,780 |buyside liquidity resting here and the basa liquidity from Friday's high. Now here's the Asian range on Friday for Friday's calculation, and we do not use
24 |23 |00:04:48,810 ~-~-> 00:04:58,350 |Mondays Asian range time. Okay. The algorithm is going to remember and refer back to the previous week. Now if this was contrived if it was all just made up.
25 |24 |00:04:58,800 ~-~-> 00:05:10,410 |Just cool. incidence, okay, this shouldn't work out like you see, but here it is. Now, you see other people out there talk about Asian range. And the idea
26 |25 |00:05:10,410 ~-~-> 00:05:14,940 |that I use when I look at the Asian range is completely
27 |26 |00:05:15,240 ~-~-> 00:05:25,890 |opposed to everything else out there, you'll never see another trader outside of myself, or my students obviously refer to refer to another day, or in this case,
28 |27 |00:05:25,920 ~-~-> 00:05:36,900 |previous week's Asian range. Because they don't consider something like that. Okay? So when you look at things like this, it's a signature that indicates that
29 |28 |00:05:36,900 ~-~-> 00:05:44,670 |these markets are absolutely manipulated, controlled, to the nth degree. And I want you to take a look at the Asian range here, okay, on Friday, so he
30 |29 |00:05:44,670 ~-~-> 00:05:57,630 |projected out one standard range. So this is one Asian range, measured above and stacked right on top of each other. Here's one Asian range below it. The second
31 |30 |00:05:57,630 ~-~-> 00:06:05,400 |Asian range below that, and the third Asian range below that. Okay, and this is all calculated on Friday's data. Now, if you carry these levels out into the
32 |31 |00:06:05,400 ~-~-> 00:06:22,230 |future, you get the high here, what's the high on this candle 1.1906 and zero pets? Well, it just happens to be the actual high the day, the Asian range low
33 |32 |00:06:22,230 ~-~-> 00:06:38,220 |here for three ranges projected lower, we have a range projection of 1.18009, pets are off only by a very small degree in the form of 1.1800, and three pets.
34 |33 |00:06:38,700 ~-~-> 00:06:49,560 |So in this case, I'm only off by six pets, that's not bad. Now, I'm going to challenge you to look at this idea here and find that with your pivot points,
35 |34 |00:06:49,920 ~-~-> 00:07:02,220 |okay? Find that with TDI, okay, find that with all of this other stuff. Okay, this might look like indicators, it's just measuring price relative to time. So
36 |35 |00:07:02,370 ~-~-> 00:07:12,060 |it's my time and price theory. The first factor, its most important when it comes to algorithmic trading is time. There's specific things that happen at
37 |36 |00:07:12,090 ~-~-> 00:07:23,610 |specific times. And if they don't occur, there is no setup. Doesn't matter what price is doing. If the time element is not there, and then price overlaps with
38 |37 |00:07:23,610 ~-~-> 00:07:36,480 |it. Those two things have to agree. But the first and foremost and most important is the time element. Okay. So if you look at this idea, we ran above
39 |38 |00:07:36,480 ~-~-> 00:07:45,090 |Friday's high, and above the initial highs that were forming here. And during consolidation here, the market had a protection above Friday's high, and then
40 |39 |00:07:45,090 ~-~-> 00:07:55,170 |slammed into this level right there. Now again, thousands of you 10s of thousands of you got that alert this morning, on my community tab, it's still
41 |40 |00:07:55,170 ~-~-> 00:08:11,580 |there, you can still see it. And it says very plainly that take something off here. Pe the trader happens right in here and it hits that level. And this is
42 |41 |00:08:11,580 ~-~-> 00:08:22,770 |what you get now what's actually occurring here. The market sees the Euro flash PMI at 330. That's what this level is here. Okay, so low forms at 330. Again,
43 |42 |00:08:22,770 ~-~-> 00:08:34,320 |back to the calendar. At 330. We had good numbers coming out 57.9 versus 256. It's modestly better, but nonetheless, it's better they pump it up and above
44 |43 |00:08:34,320 ~-~-> 00:08:44,850 |Friday's high to just any random level above Friday's high. How do you know Michael? How do you know how far it's going to go ICT? No one could know these
45 |44 |00:08:44,850 ~-~-> 00:08:55,470 |things. Well, here it is using the IDF taught you for free right here on this YouTube channel. one standard deviation on the Asian range above it using
46 |45 |00:08:55,470 ~-~-> 00:09:06,390 |Friday's data projected out in time. Bingo. Hello. Find that in your textbooks. So what happens after that it hits it. That's where you would scale out take
47 |46 |00:09:06,390 ~-~-> 00:09:16,140 |profits or completely collapse your trade. Or if you are a contrarian trader, you can look at that as an idea that okay, we do have cells out of Kota down
48 |47 |00:09:16,140 ~-~-> 00:09:27,390 |here and Monday might happen to be a day where you kept a little bit more retracement lower. This is why I don't like Mondays, Mondays tend to create the
49 |48 |00:09:27,780 ~-~-> 00:09:35,100 |precursor to the weekly range. I'm willing to give up Monday's opportunity. Now there's some of you that are hard and fast. Oh, there's no way I would ever give
50 |49 |00:09:35,100 ~-~-> 00:09:44,430 |up trading on Mondays I got to take every single day as a trading opportunity. Okay, that's fine. That's you, just not me. But for me to have continuity,
51 |50 |00:09:44,430 ~-~-> 00:09:56,880 |consistency and longevity as a career. trader. I have to have rules. And these rules have to be pretty significant and informed that I'm no longer going to
52 |51 |00:09:56,880 ~-~-> 00:10:08,640 |just guess I have to look at things objectively measure them. And if I can do that, with a fixed set of rules with a protocol and process in place, that I'm
53 |52 |00:10:08,640 ~-~-> 00:10:15,030 |going to hopefully overcome fear, greed and emotional stimuli that would otherwise wreck another traders mindset.
54 |53 |00:10:17,009 ~-~-> 00:10:30,659 |The algorithm extends price above Friday's high, once it hits this specific high, with high one standard deviation, Asian range from Friday's data. This is
55 |54 |00:10:30,659 ~-~-> 00:10:44,459 |the same stuff I taught you the last time and years ago when I introduced this concept. At 945, this candle right there, what is going on there? Well go back
56 |55 |00:10:44,459 ~-~-> 00:11:00,419 |to the calendar at 945. The US dollar has 56.7, much more improvement than what was forecasted at 52 and a half. So between the two here, okay, the dollar has
57 |56 |00:11:00,419 ~-~-> 00:11:12,389 |much more, quote unquote, fundamental driver behind it being stronger or good for the currency. Again, this number here, if it comes out better than the
58 |57 |00:11:12,389 ~-~-> 00:11:24,029 |forecast that's viewed as a good or an underlying bullish scenario for the currency. Now, that's not always the case. That's why fundamental data by itself
59 |58 |00:11:24,029 ~-~-> 00:11:33,929 |can hurt you. So you have to blend some things. Now. There's a lot of individuals that would have looked at the price action this morning in euro and
60 |59 |00:11:33,929 ~-~-> 00:11:44,429 |said, Well, this is going to keep on going and not even consider taking something off or taking your position as a long and partially taking something
61 |60 |00:11:44,429 ~-~-> 00:11:54,599 |off or paying the trader or they just made this leave their original stoploss in place and then get caught in something like that. That's why I teach my students
62 |61 |00:11:54,599 ~-~-> 00:12:03,689 |in my viewers on this channel to take partial profits. Because while you're learning and developing as a trader, you're not going to have the experience to
63 |62 |00:12:03,689 ~-~-> 00:12:15,689 |anticipate the likelihood of this type of thing occurring. Now, remember, I said moments ago, the things that occur in price are linked to time. And price. I
64 |63 |00:12:15,689 ~-~-> 00:12:26,789 |posted that comment on my community tab on my YouTube channel. Right as we are going to the seven o'clock hour in New York time, because I understand that that
65 |64 |00:12:26,849 ~-~-> 00:12:40,109 |window of opportunity begins at seven o'clock in the morning and we may get a potential market reversal profile. You can't argue with it, folks. The element
66 |65 |00:12:40,139 ~-~-> 00:12:50,339 |of displacement Here comes on the heels of a much better number for the dollar than that of that was bullish for Euro here. So the only thing the algorithm did
67 |66 |00:12:50,339 ~-~-> 00:13:01,979 |here was allow the market to build up a protraction above Friday's high hold price in here. What do traders see in that regard? They see bullish bull flags.
68 |67 |00:13:02,879 ~-~-> 00:13:11,309 |Okay, they look at this run above these highs. I think that's a bullish breakout. What is remaining in the marketplace after it gets above Friday's
69 |68 |00:13:11,309 ~-~-> 00:13:23,789 |high. We have a single swing low here. So yes, that's a liquidity pool for sell side. But more specifically, rollback to Friday's data. We have relative equals
70 |69 |00:13:23,819 ~-~-> 00:13:35,429 |what recipe below their sauce on liquidity. So if they are engineering a run on Fridays Hi, that's tradable. You can be a buyer there you can be a buyer into
71 |70 |00:13:35,429 ~-~-> 00:13:48,569 |Sunday's opening, and ride that up. 4550 pips there's nothing wrong with that. That's a one week opportunity or a one shot one kill scenario as I teach it. But
72 |71 |00:13:48,569 ~-~-> 00:13:58,919 |once we're above Friday's high, you have to be nimble. And also, I'm encouraging everyone, that's my student to respect the level of elevated risk right now.
73 |72 |00:13:59,189 ~-~-> 00:14:09,509 |Because of all the uncertainty with the US presidency, all the illness and impact it has on nations and their economies. We are waiting for the next shoe
74 |73 |00:14:09,509 ~-~-> 00:14:21,419 |to drop at any given moment, something can come out and caused a rapid repricing in the marketplace, and you will be completely taken off guard. Like today, if
75 |74 |00:14:21,419 ~-~-> 00:14:27,689 |you saw this type of move here. And it surprised you. It's because you don't understand the elements of the risk that's involved in this environment right
76 |75 |00:14:27,689 ~-~-> 00:14:36,149 |now. And technical analysis, not in the sense that you can find it in the trading books. But the things that I'm teaching here on this YouTube channel,
77 |76 |00:14:36,809 ~-~-> 00:14:47,159 |they're there because it's built around the principles of time and price in algorithmic theory. So the market has a displacement, lower running out Friday's
78 |77 |00:14:47,159 ~-~-> 00:14:59,819 |lows and projects rate down to three Asian range below their regular Asian range here. Beautiful turning point there. Now I'm going to challenge you and I want
79 |78 |00:14:59,819 ~-~-> 00:15:06,809 |you to Consider everything I'm showing you here. How much more proof? Do you need to see?
80 |79 |00:15:07,859 ~-~-> 00:15:18,599 |Did you see any kind of moving averages here? How about diagonal trend lines? Was there any harmonic patterns here that I use any Zoo animal references? Okay,
81 |80 |00:15:18,839 ~-~-> 00:15:33,779 |harmonic bat, a harmonic shark, a butterfly. We don't use those things, because all you need to know is time and price. And their specific characteristics and
82 |81 |00:15:33,779 ~-~-> 00:15:44,189 |signatures that repeat in the marketplace. And unless you are taught, you are never going to know these things. They're not in books. No other person is going
83 |82 |00:15:44,189 ~-~-> 00:15:52,199 |to teach it but me. And now my obviously I have students all around the world. It's the we have an army of people growing all around this globe. And they're
84 |83 |00:15:52,199 ~-~-> 00:16:04,529 |all starting to think, like I'm training than the think. And it's not retail. What about this looks familiar. Because it doesn't look familiar to any of you
85 |84 |00:16:04,559 ~-~-> 00:16:18,299 |outside of what I have taught in recent years. And this is something that you can see form every single week. Now, I don't know about you, but when I
86 |85 |00:16:18,299 ~-~-> 00:16:28,559 |discovered this, it was like I was waiting for the knock at the door. I was waiting for the black suits. come knocking on my door, because it felt like it
87 |86 |00:16:28,559 ~-~-> 00:16:42,329 |was forbidden knowledge and I should not have it. Because it repeats like this. This is what I refer to as Swiss time piece precision. You can't escape it. You
88 |87 |00:16:42,329 ~-~-> 00:16:50,849 |can't write it off as coincidence. You can't look at it and say well, he never really said to use Friday's range for the Asian range for Monday's trading.
89 |88 |00:16:51,149 ~-~-> 00:17:01,349 |Because I did. In fact, it was just the last video I gave you on YouTube. So for the pundits out there that wrestle with me from the sidelines or sending me an
90 |89 |00:17:01,349 ~-~-> 00:17:13,109 |email, just know that I do this to encourage you to dig deeper into the things I teach, because you haven't seen the half of it yet. For everyone in the United
91 |90 |00:17:13,109 ~-~-> 00:17:21,089 |States, I would like to wish you a very safe and happy Thanksgiving, everyone else around the world. Please be safe, respectful, elevated risk that we have
92 |91 |00:17:21,089 ~-~-> 00:17:23,399 |right now. And I'll talk to you again next weekend.