ICT-WENT-04.srt
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ICT: Alright guys, we're looking at a
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few discussions on the use of support
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and resistance. And I know this is
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probably a very boring topic to most of
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you. Since you're all so advanced and so
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proficient in your trading. That's basic
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right? We're going to be looking at a
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few things that hopefully will amplify
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your understanding and give you a better
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respect for those things that are lined
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up with the use of support resistance.
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Now, again, it's not to mention the
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obvious basic nature of support
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resistance to rub it in your face. It's
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meant to really bring you back to a core
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basic tenant, to sound technical
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analysis. There's no better way of
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gauging the Measure of supply and demand
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and the factors that are inherently tied
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to price moving up and down, no better
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than the use of sport assistance. And
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it's important to understand that it
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shouldn't be discounted, every effective
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trading plan should at least consider
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it. Even if you are a like an EA trader,
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okay, if you are, you know, a trader
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that utilizes that type of approach of
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trading, hopefully you've incorporated
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some measure of support resistance in
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your, your, your studies or your your,
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your EA that is used to do your trading.
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Obviously, discretionary trading and
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manual trading is my forte because I
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think it's the best. There isn't a
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program out there that I'm convinced
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that would ever outdo a sound technical
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analyst and someone that has a lot of
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experience in in the study of price. The
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ability to adjust and adapt to short
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term variances in the market environment
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is completely unique to the human mind.
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And I don't believe they'll ever come to
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that level of artificial intelligence,
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because it's a psychological thing,
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okay? And it's very, very difficult to
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trade that or rather not trade it, but
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to code that, and it's about you seeing
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what the psychology is in the market
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through price action. And it's important
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that we focus our study on the technical
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aspects of trading through the study of
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price action, and there's no better way
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of doing it than trading with support
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resistance. Now. I'm a very firm
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believer that horizontal support
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resistance is absolutely the best in
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terms of gauging the measure of supply
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and demand and don't have a whole lot of
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faith in diagonal diagnoses like trend
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lines, I don't like seeing uptrend lines
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and downtrend lines, I have no faith in
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them. I can show you many examples of
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where that looks perfect right out of
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the textbook and it looks so easy. You
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know, anyone didn't sit down, just put
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two, two swing points together, draw a
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line and keep going in time, eventually
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when it comes back down to it just
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despite it, okay, well, it's not that
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easy. In fact, the professionals, okay,
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are the specialists out there,
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understand that there's going to be a
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lot of liquidity based around that
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simple procedure of trading at a bounce
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or the proverbial bounce, okay. At a
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support, diagonal trend line up or down.
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And I don't see so much of that with
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horizontal support resistance, and it's
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based on like, basically, it's like an
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auction environment, okay. If price
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drops down to a certain level, it's
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perceived devalue will incite buying,
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okay, or at least a very slow a drastic
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slowdown in the selling, which would
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cause a pause, at least, if not an all
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together bounce in turn higher. And
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obviously the same would be reversed for
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resistance. But it's important that you
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understand that. If you are an indicator
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based trader, I have, I have a special
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affinity for indicators. While you don't
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see too many of them on my charts in my
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reviews, I believe that it's important
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if a trader has the use of an indicator,
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whether it be an overbought or oversold,
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whether it be pivots or Fibonacci or
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something like that. It's important and
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even moving averages as well. It's
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important to understand that price
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action is the framework that will enable
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the effectiveness of those tools to be
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capitalized on. It's not simply put an
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indicator on there and tell me if it's
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overbought or oversold, and when it goes
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over, so I'm just gonna be a buyer. And
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unfortunately, even when I was a
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neophyte trader, that's exactly what I
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thought I went into the marketplace,
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putting in my indicators. And I thought,
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that's all I had to do. And
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unfortunately for me,
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while I did make money, it was
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unfortunate that I got lulled into
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believing that I had it licked. And it
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was just as simple as that. And I was
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the definition of new money. If you sit
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down and look at the the dynasties going
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into 2000, it was pretty much a
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proverbial vertical bull market in the
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commodity market, and everything was
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just going straight up. So as long as
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you were buying oversold conditions and
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buying bullish divergence, okay, that
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was all I was trading off of. It was
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just like taking, you know, a shotgun
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and blasting out, you know, a barrel,
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full fish you couldn't lose. But
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unfortunately, obviously, when the
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market changed and moved into an a
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trading environment, not a explosive
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trend following, you know, commercial
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bull market where everything was
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extrapolated to the upside only I fell
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into some problems. And I quickly
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learned that moving averages and
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indicators and all that stuff is great.
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But there has to be a context and a
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premise behind their use. And it's
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really framed on the basis of support
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resistance. Now, why do you trade
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support resistance and it's important
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that you understand also that without a
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framework, okay, to anticipate when
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supply should come in, and when demand
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should come into the marketplace? You
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know, think about it, how are we to
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measure or anticipate that, okay,
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instead of reacting to it because we
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don't want to chase price by
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understanding horizontal support
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resistance levels, they will give us a
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precursor to future probable moves in
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the marketplace. Okay. So it gives you
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like a wonderful prognostication value
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in terms of your chart study. By having
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an understanding of where support
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resistance is basis. The asset class
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you're trading and we're going to speak
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speaks specific to forex here, but it's
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Completely universal to everything it's
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it's universal to index trading bonds
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currencies you know futures anything
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that can be traded even Bitcoin not that
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I'm a Bitcoin trader or even think that
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anybody in their right mind should be
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trading that kind of stuff but it works
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in that as well and not trying to rub
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rub you guys that trade Bitcoin wrong
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okay I know a couple of you guys as you
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started following me on Twitter don't
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take that as a jab you know personal I
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just simply don't have any faith in
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trading Bitcoin, but if you look at the
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charts, obviously support resistance you
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know rules at that market as well
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because it is giving you a visual
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representation of supply and demand.
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Okay, resistance, providing you a means
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of supply and support providing you a
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means of
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demand and looking at where We are in
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relationship to supply and demand curve.
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Okay, we'll give you hopefully, the
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insight that you need to be consistently
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following a plan, looking for trade
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setups that aren't just magically
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popping off at the chart and again, say,
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Oh, look at this, I mean, react to that.
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It will give you a framework by
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utilizing horizontal support resistance
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to, number one know a level in advance,
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when price gets to that level, have a
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plan of action to trade when price gets
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to that level, okay. And we talked about
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this concept in specific terms as time
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and price theory. When price gets to
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those levels, at a specific time of day
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or day a week, okay, that's a very
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specific condition that usually met is
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usually met with a large probability for
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and it's a story move higher or lower,
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respective to the support resistance
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level that you're looking at. Now,
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obviously, support resistance is
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absolutely not a panacea. It's not
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beyond But it does, hopefully, you give
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you the perspective or framework to look
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in the marketplace and say okay, this
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should be a relatively significant price
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level, okay, that should provide
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support. So therefore, when price comes
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down to that level, there should be a
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measurable indication of demand. Okay,
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and that asset class should at least
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pause and if not bounce or reverse all
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together. Now, obviously, it depends
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upon what time frame you're looking at,
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how much it moves away from those levels
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is contingent upon what the other
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factors are, that we'll discuss in this
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video set. So understanding that value,
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okay, or you what is deemed as value
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okay is always going to be moving it's
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dynamic, okay, and which is a reason why
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there's multiple levels that will be
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considered support and resistance based
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on any timeframe. prices. Price. Same as
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on a monthly chart or a one minute
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chart, but how we perceive it, okay, and
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how we measure the supply and demand
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curve on horizontal support resistance
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is obviously going to be, you know,
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important to you as your development,
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okay, and understanding how to
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incorporate support resistance, we're
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going to give you some framework on how
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to look at very generic specific
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concepts to frame and flesh out support
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resistance on your charts. Now, there
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will be much more in terms of
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dynamic support resistance later on,
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when I start talking about the inner
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circle trader, market maker collection
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when I start giving out some of the
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higher level price studies and how to
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look inside price action, and if you'd
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like the, the ICT order blocks that I
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released in precision trading volume,
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one through three volume in 2014. Then
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you'll really like the stuff that we
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talked about later on, but For now,
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we're going to get really back to the
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basics of when I came on the scene in
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2010. Just talking about forex. I've
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been teaching obviously since the late
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90s 1997 98, when I came out of the
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corner, if you will, and start sharing
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my insights with everyone on Mark chat
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and only internet, AOL. So, looking
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ahead, okay, how can we develop a means
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of finding consistent trade setups?
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Well, again, like we talked about just a
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short moment ago, when we look at
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support and resistance, we're looking at
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areas of where we would anticipate a
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probable bounce or move in price.
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Without having reference points to deem
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as support or resistance. You're not
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going to have any measurable way of
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determining a consistent approach. Okay,
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you have to be looking for the same
272
00:11:59,370 --> 00:12:00,720
types of things. over and over and over
273
00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,880
again. Otherwise, you're gambling, okay?
274
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,280
You're looking for a different result
275
00:12:05,310 --> 00:12:06,300
doing the same thing over and over
276
00:12:06,300 --> 00:12:09,300
again, without having a sound plan in
277
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place and looking for consistently
278
00:12:12,150 --> 00:12:15,150
reoccurring patterns that occur around
279
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support resistance. That's the basis for
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finding consistent trade setups. And I
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00:12:19,470 --> 00:12:21,960
promise you, if you understand support
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00:12:22,020 --> 00:12:25,380
systems that will give you 80% of the
283
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battle one for you all the way because
284
00:12:27,690 --> 00:12:29,430
you're going to be looking for things
285
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within and within anticipatory mind, not
286
00:12:32,970 --> 00:12:35,670
a reactionary mind. Not a, I'm afraid
287
00:12:35,670 --> 00:12:37,560
I'm going to miss the move mind. Okay.
288
00:12:37,590 --> 00:12:38,820
In other words, your your will be
289
00:12:38,820 --> 00:12:41,400
looking at price, knowing full well that
290
00:12:41,430 --> 00:12:43,290
you as a trader, because you can't
291
00:12:43,290 --> 00:12:44,910
control price. You can't do anything to
292
00:12:44,910 --> 00:12:47,400
steer price, but you can control you and
293
00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:49,170
you're at the driver's seat of your
294
00:12:49,170 --> 00:12:51,360
trading. No one can make you do these
295
00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:52,920
trades. You are the one that's
296
00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,830
completely and utterly responsible. So
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it's important that you understand in
298
00:12:57,570 --> 00:13:00,630
clear terms what you do when gets to the
299
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specific price levels. If if price
300
00:13:03,090 --> 00:13:05,910
trades up to a quote unquote, key
301
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resistance level, what specifically Are
302
00:13:08,130 --> 00:13:10,170
you going to be doing once price gets
303
00:13:10,170 --> 00:13:12,900
there? Okay. Well, obviously, you know,
304
00:13:13,260 --> 00:13:17,850
in a real short list of means of, you
305
00:13:17,850 --> 00:13:18,990
know, deciding what it is you should be
306
00:13:18,990 --> 00:13:20,790
doing. When price trades, the resistance
307
00:13:20,790 --> 00:13:23,130
level, you should be looking for signs
308
00:13:23,190 --> 00:13:25,950
of pausing and or reversing, okay and
309
00:13:25,950 --> 00:13:28,380
then you want to see a quick move away
310
00:13:28,380 --> 00:13:29,610
from that level, you will see some
311
00:13:29,610 --> 00:13:32,190
measurable means of rejection, you want
312
00:13:32,190 --> 00:13:34,230
to see price want to get away from that
313
00:13:34,230 --> 00:13:36,390
level. And then many times what will
314
00:13:36,390 --> 00:13:37,830
happen is it'll try to run back to that
315
00:13:37,830 --> 00:13:40,860
level and fail. That's when a lot of our
316
00:13:41,700 --> 00:13:43,740
optimal trade entry patterns come in
317
00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,230
harmonic trades, okay, if you're a
318
00:13:46,230 --> 00:13:48,180
harmonic trader, you trade bat patterns
319
00:13:48,180 --> 00:13:50,400
and butterfly patterns, and not crab
320
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,680
patterns, all those things that exist if
321
00:13:52,680 --> 00:13:54,570
you have the understanding of the
322
00:13:54,570 --> 00:13:56,790
support resistance level in mind ahead
323
00:13:56,790 --> 00:13:58,980
of time when price trades to those
324
00:13:58,980 --> 00:14:01,110
levels that When you're stalking the
325
00:14:01,110 --> 00:14:02,910
pattern, it's not that we're looking for
326
00:14:02,910 --> 00:14:04,560
patterns and then looking for a level
327
00:14:04,560 --> 00:14:07,140
around the round that pattern. Okay,
328
00:14:07,230 --> 00:14:08,790
you're looking for the pattern to
329
00:14:08,790 --> 00:14:12,270
develop at these predetermined price
330
00:14:12,270 --> 00:14:14,610
levels. And that's the power of using
331
00:14:14,610 --> 00:14:17,160
price action based study. Because using
332
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,170
support resistance, it removes all the
333
00:14:19,170 --> 00:14:21,870
ambiguity of, well, should I trust the
334
00:14:21,870 --> 00:14:23,220
indicator now or should I not trust the
335
00:14:23,220 --> 00:14:24,570
indicator? Okay, there's a there's a
336
00:14:24,570 --> 00:14:26,850
plethora of all kinds of overbought and
337
00:14:26,850 --> 00:14:28,920
oversold indicators, okay, if
338
00:14:28,980 --> 00:14:30,390
overbought, oversold was all there was
339
00:14:30,390 --> 00:14:32,580
to it, you would only need one Why is
340
00:14:32,580 --> 00:14:34,470
there so many of them? Because they form
341
00:14:34,470 --> 00:14:37,620
fit to make the books and the webinars
342
00:14:37,620 --> 00:14:40,290
and workshops and authors money selling
343
00:14:40,290 --> 00:14:43,230
that crap? Okay, if you take all that
344
00:14:43,230 --> 00:14:44,520
stuff off your chart and just simply
345
00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,890
look at support resistance, once you
346
00:14:46,890 --> 00:14:48,540
understand how that works, and if you
347
00:14:48,540 --> 00:14:50,010
understand this the simple premise of
348
00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,770
sold when you looked at price with the
349
00:14:52,770 --> 00:14:55,560
tool then it's obviously you'll know
350
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,240
exactly when you should be following the
351
00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:59,580
indicator then, but then it becomes a
352
00:14:59,580 --> 00:15:01,560
question of Is there any value in the
353
00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:03,810
indicator, okay? And that's, that's
354
00:15:03,810 --> 00:15:05,730
arguable. I like indicators because it
355
00:15:05,730 --> 00:15:09,960
gives me a like a sentiment indicator
356
00:15:10,110 --> 00:15:12,930
based view on what I think the neophyte
357
00:15:12,930 --> 00:15:15,330
traders are expecting. And if I'm an I'm
358
00:15:15,330 --> 00:15:17,640
it. If I'm coming down to a support
359
00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:21,540
level, and I see folks seeing a small
360
00:15:21,540 --> 00:15:23,160
little bounce off that support level,
361
00:15:23,250 --> 00:15:25,740
and it goes overbought, they're going to
362
00:15:25,740 --> 00:15:27,150
look to sell that because it's
363
00:15:27,150 --> 00:15:29,010
overbought. And I'm going to be looking
364
00:15:29,010 --> 00:15:31,170
for the small retracement, go back down
365
00:15:31,170 --> 00:15:32,460
into that support level and I'm going to
366
00:15:32,460 --> 00:15:34,740
be buying it. Okay. And that's many
367
00:15:34,740 --> 00:15:37,350
times why neophyte traders get caught
368
00:15:37,350 --> 00:15:39,690
up, you know, selling lows and buying
369
00:15:39,690 --> 00:15:41,910
highs and that's because indicators will
370
00:15:41,910 --> 00:15:44,580
do that to you every single time. So
371
00:15:44,580 --> 00:15:48,810
now, what does support resistance tell
372
00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,000
us as traders specifically, obviously,
373
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:52,800
we know that resistance provides us a
374
00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:57,570
means of supply and support provides a
375
00:15:57,570 --> 00:16:01,290
means of graphically depicting demand.
376
00:16:01,530 --> 00:16:05,130
So we understand that graphically, okay,
377
00:16:05,130 --> 00:16:07,500
when price runs into a resistance level
378
00:16:07,500 --> 00:16:10,020
as it rallies up, okay? That is
379
00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:14,250
indicative of more sellers than buyers.
380
00:16:14,490 --> 00:16:17,580
Okay, and a lack of buyers, okay. And
381
00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:18,810
when price comes down to a support
382
00:16:18,810 --> 00:16:21,180
level, that's an indication of strong
383
00:16:21,180 --> 00:16:24,510
buyers or a lack of sellers. Okay, so
384
00:16:25,140 --> 00:16:27,810
understanding that simple premise, okay,
385
00:16:27,810 --> 00:16:29,370
if you look at higher timeframe price
386
00:16:29,370 --> 00:16:31,020
charts like monthly, weekly and daily,
387
00:16:31,890 --> 00:16:33,690
there's absolutely no reason why you
388
00:16:33,690 --> 00:16:35,550
can't carve out a really, really nice
389
00:16:35,550 --> 00:16:38,520
return over an annual basis and not even
390
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:40,050
really trade a whole lot. But the
391
00:16:40,050 --> 00:16:43,080
problem is much like myself, we are
392
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:44,970
looking for action. We want to get in
393
00:16:44,970 --> 00:16:46,080
there and we want to be doing something
394
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:48,660
because it doesn't seem productive until
395
00:16:48,660 --> 00:16:50,850
we actually put trades on. Think about
396
00:16:50,850 --> 00:16:54,120
it. We don't know how much money we're
397
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,700
going to make. Most of you don't know
398
00:16:56,700 --> 00:16:57,630
how much you're going to lose because
399
00:16:57,630 --> 00:16:59,160
you don't eat a tray but stop or you
400
00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:02,790
trade With a mental stop, okay, you
401
00:17:02,790 --> 00:17:04,560
think that, you know, you know where
402
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:05,970
it's going to probably go. And you'll be
403
00:17:05,970 --> 00:17:07,800
willing to assume that that loss if it
404
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:09,270
goes there, but many times it blows
405
00:17:09,270 --> 00:17:10,740
right through that, and then that mental
406
00:17:10,740 --> 00:17:12,120
stop does exactly what it's called. And
407
00:17:12,120 --> 00:17:13,620
it makes you mental, because you wish
408
00:17:13,620 --> 00:17:14,880
you would have had hard stop in there.
409
00:17:15,690 --> 00:17:18,420
You by having understanding of support
410
00:17:18,420 --> 00:17:20,610
resistance will know exactly where your
411
00:17:20,610 --> 00:17:22,950
stop loss should be. And also where
412
00:17:22,950 --> 00:17:24,810
everyone else's stop losses as well.
413
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,080
Even the fund managers, that's right,
414
00:17:28,140 --> 00:17:29,910
the fund managers, they're going to put
415
00:17:29,910 --> 00:17:31,650
their stop loss in there just like
416
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,720
everyone else does. And that's why the
417
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:35,400
specialists and the market makers
418
00:17:35,700 --> 00:17:40,740
Exactly. Scoop up those the there's
419
00:17:40,830 --> 00:17:42,750
liquidity pools where there's a pocket
420
00:17:42,780 --> 00:17:45,480
of orders resting just above an old high
421
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:47,730
or just below an old low and It's
422
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,860
uncanny how many times that takes place.
423
00:17:49,950 --> 00:17:51,720
And if you understand where the markets
424
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,300
going on a macro level, okay, and if you
425
00:17:54,300 --> 00:17:56,250
find a support level, when price is
426
00:17:56,250 --> 00:17:58,350
coming down to that level, okay? Don't
427
00:17:58,380 --> 00:17:59,760
assume that it's going to stop right on
428
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:01,470
that level. Many times what'll happen,
429
00:18:01,470 --> 00:18:03,930
it's going to dip below that level. Why?
430
00:18:03,930 --> 00:18:05,100
Because there's going to be existing
431
00:18:05,100 --> 00:18:07,350
pending orders below that level, it's
432
00:18:07,350 --> 00:18:10,350
going to become immediate market orders,
433
00:18:10,500 --> 00:18:12,630
okay? And they're going to be used to
434
00:18:12,630 --> 00:18:15,180
provide liquidity for those participants
435
00:18:15,210 --> 00:18:16,800
in the marketplace that want to take the
436
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,200
other side. And that's, if you look at
437
00:18:19,230 --> 00:18:21,240
all of your losing trades, that's
438
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:25,470
probably 99.99999% of how you lost in
439
00:18:25,470 --> 00:18:27,780
the marketplace. Your stock got taken
440
00:18:27,810 --> 00:18:29,040
and then the move you thought was gonna
441
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,440
happen took off and did it. Okay. And
442
00:18:31,860 --> 00:18:33,690
there's no there's no secret to it.
443
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,540
Okay, everyone knows that the textbooks
444
00:18:36,540 --> 00:18:38,790
tell us to put your stop loss right
445
00:18:38,790 --> 00:18:41,940
below an old low to most recent low,
446
00:18:42,180 --> 00:18:45,150
okay, and it's common sense it's made,
447
00:18:45,180 --> 00:18:47,430
it just takes a very small measure of
448
00:18:47,460 --> 00:18:50,040
static, you know, price action to come
449
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,040
down and just tag that out of if a big
450
00:18:53,220 --> 00:18:55,260
order comes in the marketplace and it
451
00:18:55,260 --> 00:18:57,990
needs liquidity to be executed. market
452
00:18:57,990 --> 00:19:00,000
maker is going to take in the market.
453
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,400
get to that level, okay and fill that
454
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,380
order knowing buy that one trade
455
00:19:04,380 --> 00:19:07,200
printing, okay, once that trade becomes
456
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,290
a market print where that price is now
457
00:19:10,290 --> 00:19:12,870
there every order around that particular
458
00:19:12,870 --> 00:19:14,310
level goes hot. In other words,
459
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,410
everything becomes a market order all
460
00:19:16,410 --> 00:19:18,600
pending orders, buy stops and limit
461
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,270
orders all become market orders
462
00:19:21,300 --> 00:19:23,130
immediately right then and there. And
463
00:19:23,130 --> 00:19:26,730
market orders are what? That's candy for
464
00:19:26,730 --> 00:19:28,740
the market maker. That means he's going
465
00:19:28,740 --> 00:19:31,710
to get whatever fill he wants. Okay, and
466
00:19:31,710 --> 00:19:33,240
that's their, that's what they're doing
467
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:34,290
in the marketplace. Now. No, that's
468
00:19:34,290 --> 00:19:36,810
probably going to be, you know, probably
469
00:19:36,810 --> 00:19:38,070
a little bit uncomfortable from from
470
00:19:38,070 --> 00:19:39,720
some of you if you're just new to
471
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,870
understanding how this stuff works. And
472
00:19:42,870 --> 00:19:44,220
you may be you may be questioning why
473
00:19:44,220 --> 00:19:45,300
should I be doing this if there's people
474
00:19:45,300 --> 00:19:46,200
out there trying to take me out the
475
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:47,790
marketplace? Well, when you understand
476
00:19:47,820 --> 00:19:49,950
what they do and how they do it, you can
477
00:19:49,950 --> 00:19:53,310
do what they do in your trading and ride
478
00:19:53,310 --> 00:19:55,230
their coattails. That's really the
479
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,600
that's the basis of consistent trading,
480
00:19:57,930 --> 00:19:59,610
knowing what the Smart Money is doing.
481
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,980
who the real smart money is not the guys
482
00:20:01,980 --> 00:20:03,060
that are talking on the forums that
483
00:20:03,060 --> 00:20:04,890
think they knew where Smart Money is,
484
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:08,190
most of them don't. Okay. And I have
485
00:20:08,190 --> 00:20:09,420
dealt with people on an institutional
486
00:20:09,420 --> 00:20:11,880
level, I have been in an institutional
487
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,300
level environment. And I have seen a lot
488
00:20:15,300 --> 00:20:17,010
of things that I'm sharing now. And most
489
00:20:17,010 --> 00:20:18,990
of the folks that I know have known me
490
00:20:18,990 --> 00:20:20,580
for a long period of time, aren't real
491
00:20:20,580 --> 00:20:23,610
happy about me sharing this stuff. And I
492
00:20:23,610 --> 00:20:25,290
don't care because I like doing it. And
493
00:20:25,290 --> 00:20:26,520
I always said, If I once I got to the
494
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:27,840
point where I knew what I was doing, and
495
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:29,400
I was comfortable with it, and I didn't
496
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,470
need any more money, boom, I would share
497
00:20:31,470 --> 00:20:33,240
it and this is what I'm doing. I'm never
498
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:34,620
selling it. So I get a lot of
499
00:20:34,620 --> 00:20:36,810
gratification for just being helpful to
500
00:20:36,870 --> 00:20:40,470
the general populace. Now, it's not
501
00:20:40,470 --> 00:20:43,080
enough simply knowing what support
502
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,420
resistance levels are, you know, on your
503
00:20:45,420 --> 00:20:48,330
charts, but we want to be able to gauge
504
00:20:48,330 --> 00:20:50,460
this strength of those particular price
505
00:20:50,460 --> 00:20:54,810
levels. And when we look at price, you
506
00:20:54,810 --> 00:20:56,670
want to see resistance levels being
507
00:20:56,670 --> 00:20:58,980
taken out and support levels being
508
00:20:59,550 --> 00:21:02,040
respected. Okay, and that is a really
509
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:03,900
good bullish environment, if we see
510
00:21:03,900 --> 00:21:05,550
support levels being taken out and
511
00:21:05,550 --> 00:21:07,770
resistance levels being respected, that
512
00:21:07,770 --> 00:21:11,280
is a very bearish indication. By having
513
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,230
that mindset in your trading, it's
514
00:21:13,230 --> 00:21:14,490
rather simple. If you think about it,
515
00:21:14,550 --> 00:21:16,980
it's very simple. But how many times are
516
00:21:16,980 --> 00:21:19,020
you actually looking at price that way?
517
00:21:19,620 --> 00:21:22,830
You're looking for everything to be
518
00:21:22,860 --> 00:21:26,700
extremely difficult. You want to make it
519
00:21:26,700 --> 00:21:30,510
so complicated, that it's, it's sexy,
520
00:21:30,750 --> 00:21:32,250
okay, that way you can tell your friends
521
00:21:32,250 --> 00:21:33,600
and they can say, Well, that doesn't
522
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:34,740
make any sense to me, because that's
523
00:21:34,740 --> 00:21:37,410
too, that's too advanced. For my mind.
524
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:38,550
I'm not going to I'm not going to be a
525
00:21:38,550 --> 00:21:40,110
trader because it seems too complicated.
526
00:21:41,010 --> 00:21:43,890
Trading really itself is easy. And the
527
00:21:43,890 --> 00:21:46,170
problem is, we like to make it harder
528
00:21:46,170 --> 00:21:48,360
because simply saying it's gone low
529
00:21:48,360 --> 00:21:49,740
enough to a level it's probably gonna go
530
00:21:49,740 --> 00:21:51,780
up from that point, if we just buy their
531
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,820
look to take a small profit and control
532
00:21:53,820 --> 00:21:56,400
our risk. That's all trading is. Now
533
00:21:57,840 --> 00:21:59,520
unfortunately, again, like we mentioned
534
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,290
earlier, and Everyone that comes into
535
00:22:01,290 --> 00:22:03,450
the marketplace wants to trade a lot
536
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,940
thinking that more trading equates to
537
00:22:05,970 --> 00:22:09,210
more success. And that's absolutely not
538
00:22:09,210 --> 00:22:11,040
the case. That's not the case at all,
539
00:22:11,250 --> 00:22:13,500
you'll find that many of the most
540
00:22:13,500 --> 00:22:15,930
significantly profitable traders out
541
00:22:15,930 --> 00:22:18,570
there are those that are ones that do
542
00:22:18,570 --> 00:22:20,130
not trade a whole lot, okay, that are
543
00:22:20,130 --> 00:22:24,420
very selective, okay? Very, quote,
544
00:22:24,420 --> 00:22:26,370
unquote, cherry picking, if you will,
545
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,950
the understanding that, you know, if you
546
00:22:28,950 --> 00:22:32,460
have a system, okay. And there's a
547
00:22:34,110 --> 00:22:37,320
recurring theme that comes out of most
548
00:22:37,350 --> 00:22:39,060
technical circles that, you know, if you
549
00:22:39,060 --> 00:22:40,140
have a system, you got to take every
550
00:22:40,140 --> 00:22:43,110
signal, I don't take every signal, even
551
00:22:43,110 --> 00:22:44,550
in my own methods. I don't do that.
552
00:22:44,940 --> 00:22:46,410
Because I'm a discretionary trader, I
553
00:22:46,410 --> 00:22:49,320
know by looking at price action when the
554
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,890
setups look like they're there, but the
555
00:22:52,890 --> 00:22:55,500
probabilities aren't as strong as other
556
00:22:55,500 --> 00:22:57,840
times. Okay. And that comes with
557
00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,370
experience. You can't learn that from a
558
00:22:59,370 --> 00:23:00,960
book. You can't Go to a workshop and
559
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,120
learn that, that comes from years and
560
00:23:03,120 --> 00:23:05,160
years and years of digging your nose
561
00:23:05,430 --> 00:23:07,830
into price action and studying and
562
00:23:07,830 --> 00:23:10,290
seeing your real trades pan out, taking
563
00:23:10,290 --> 00:23:11,790
the losing trades, taking the winning
564
00:23:11,790 --> 00:23:13,320
trades, taking the scratch trades,
565
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,050
breakevens you know, marginal losses,
566
00:23:16,050 --> 00:23:19,050
marginal wins, and and digesting price
567
00:23:19,050 --> 00:23:20,880
action and seeing these reoccurring
568
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,550
seasonal tendencies, these reoccurring
569
00:23:23,550 --> 00:23:27,060
General, you know, patterns that come
570
00:23:27,060 --> 00:23:29,070
into the marketplace all the time that
571
00:23:29,070 --> 00:23:32,730
are just just generically inherent to
572
00:23:32,940 --> 00:23:34,950
repeating over and over and over again,
573
00:23:34,950 --> 00:23:36,900
certain periods of time throughout the
574
00:23:36,900 --> 00:23:39,180
year, throughout the month, specific
575
00:23:39,180 --> 00:23:39,720
months.
576
00:23:41,579 --> 00:23:43,319
certain days of the week, all these
577
00:23:43,319 --> 00:23:46,439
phenomenon, okay, are at the disposal of
578
00:23:46,439 --> 00:23:48,929
a AV specialist and I'm something of a
579
00:23:48,929 --> 00:23:50,579
specialist because I understand
580
00:23:50,579 --> 00:23:52,679
specifically certain times of the week
581
00:23:52,679 --> 00:23:55,049
times of the year times have specific
582
00:23:55,049 --> 00:23:59,309
months, and times of the days where
583
00:23:59,309 --> 00:24:01,619
certain things are Coming into effect
584
00:24:01,649 --> 00:24:03,779
where I know that smart money will be
585
00:24:03,779 --> 00:24:05,909
doing a specific type of thing. And I
586
00:24:05,909 --> 00:24:08,369
can capitalize on that. I'm not trying
587
00:24:08,399 --> 00:24:11,129
to go out here to hurt anyone. But I am
588
00:24:11,129 --> 00:24:12,599
going out there to try to take the other
589
00:24:12,599 --> 00:24:14,519
side of less informed traders and I
590
00:24:14,519 --> 00:24:17,219
don't, I don't feel that that is
591
00:24:19,139 --> 00:24:21,899
warranting an apology, okay, because,
592
00:24:21,989 --> 00:24:23,699
you know, we all sign the risk with risk
593
00:24:23,699 --> 00:24:24,839
disclosures when we come into this
594
00:24:24,839 --> 00:24:28,139
business. And if you don't learn from
595
00:24:28,139 --> 00:24:30,449
your losing trades, you aren't going to
596
00:24:30,449 --> 00:24:32,909
learn from the experiences of losing
597
00:24:32,999 --> 00:24:34,259
because you're just going to be caught
598
00:24:34,259 --> 00:24:36,419
up in the pain factor. And that's
599
00:24:36,419 --> 00:24:37,949
usually the losers cycle, you go into
600
00:24:37,949 --> 00:24:39,899
this business and you have no framework,
601
00:24:39,899 --> 00:24:41,579
no basis of understanding where the
602
00:24:41,579 --> 00:24:43,289
trades are going to form or when to
603
00:24:43,289 --> 00:24:45,089
anticipate them. And support resistance
604
00:24:45,089 --> 00:24:48,959
gives you that there's no better tool at
605
00:24:48,959 --> 00:24:50,909
a traders disposal than support
606
00:24:50,909 --> 00:24:52,889
resistance. It's absolutely crucial in
607
00:24:52,889 --> 00:24:55,559
terms of my opinion on trading
608
00:24:55,559 --> 00:24:57,329
technically. That's it That's the
609
00:24:57,329 --> 00:24:59,369
secret, you know, understanding of where
610
00:24:59,369 --> 00:25:01,709
support resistance That'll give you the,
611
00:25:01,949 --> 00:25:03,749
like I said, the 80 80% of the battle
612
00:25:03,749 --> 00:25:05,549
beaten right there, because you won't be
613
00:25:05,549 --> 00:25:08,609
trading out there in in empty space.
614
00:25:08,729 --> 00:25:11,699
Okay, between key levels, okay? There
615
00:25:11,699 --> 00:25:13,079
are ways of trading Don't get me wrong
616
00:25:13,079 --> 00:25:14,579
there's there are ways of trading that
617
00:25:14,579 --> 00:25:15,869
stuff, but you're still going to be
618
00:25:15,869 --> 00:25:17,819
referencing smaller timeframe, key
619
00:25:17,819 --> 00:25:20,609
support resistance levels with a
620
00:25:20,759 --> 00:25:22,679
directional premise based on those
621
00:25:22,679 --> 00:25:24,629
higher timeframe levels. So you're still
622
00:25:24,629 --> 00:25:26,789
going to incorporate support resistance.
623
00:25:27,089 --> 00:25:30,029
But if you focus on monthly, weekly and
624
00:25:30,029 --> 00:25:33,599
daily levels, there's absolutely no
625
00:25:33,599 --> 00:25:37,499
reason why the average Joe trader can't
626
00:25:37,529 --> 00:25:40,259
find a few trades a year to be net
627
00:25:40,259 --> 00:25:42,929
profitable. So now what types of support
628
00:25:42,929 --> 00:25:44,789
resistance are there? Well, there are
629
00:25:44,789 --> 00:25:47,759
two types of support resistance and in
630
00:25:47,759 --> 00:25:50,609
my own understanding, okay, I dub them
631
00:25:50,609 --> 00:25:52,349
as natural support resistance levels,
632
00:25:52,589 --> 00:25:54,839
and implied support resistance levels.
633
00:25:54,839 --> 00:25:56,579
Now what's, what is the natural support
634
00:25:56,579 --> 00:25:58,499
resistance level one would be obviously
635
00:25:59,489 --> 00:26:01,409
a 12. month higher low and that would be
636
00:26:01,409 --> 00:26:04,379
the range, the highest price in the last
637
00:26:04,379 --> 00:26:06,449
12 months and the lowest price in the
638
00:26:06,449 --> 00:26:08,729
last 12 months. That are there are
639
00:26:08,729 --> 00:26:10,799
basically your 52 week highs and lows.
640
00:26:10,829 --> 00:26:14,069
Okay, pretty standard, you know, levels
641
00:26:14,069 --> 00:26:16,799
in all of your technical circles. If
642
00:26:16,799 --> 00:26:18,239
you're a stock trader, there's a real
643
00:26:18,239 --> 00:26:20,759
important levels. You have quarterly
644
00:26:20,759 --> 00:26:22,829
highs and lows. That means every three
645
00:26:22,829 --> 00:26:24,989
months throughout the calendar year,
646
00:26:25,049 --> 00:26:27,239
okay, there are specific highs and lows
647
00:26:27,239 --> 00:26:28,949
in the last three months. Okay, you want
648
00:26:28,949 --> 00:26:31,469
to make note of that. Those levels are
649
00:26:31,469 --> 00:26:33,689
very, very crucial. I love those levels
650
00:26:33,689 --> 00:26:35,429
more than any other level because they
651
00:26:35,429 --> 00:26:37,199
give me the framework on how the
652
00:26:37,199 --> 00:26:38,429
commercial traders which we'll talk
653
00:26:38,429 --> 00:26:41,579
about later in this video, how they move
654
00:26:41,609 --> 00:26:43,439
in and out of the marketplace and they
655
00:26:43,439 --> 00:26:46,139
hedge and they Oh, they provide the
656
00:26:46,139 --> 00:26:49,139
liquidity to move price around like it
657
00:26:49,139 --> 00:26:50,579
does. Okay. And a lot of people will
658
00:26:50,579 --> 00:26:51,989
argue and say, you know, it's not the
659
00:26:51,989 --> 00:26:53,459
commercials move in price. I'm going to
660
00:26:53,459 --> 00:26:54,629
tell you right now, it is a commercial
661
00:26:54,629 --> 00:26:56,099
traders, it is the large institutions,
662
00:26:56,099 --> 00:26:58,799
it is the banks, okay, that move price
663
00:26:58,919 --> 00:27:01,919
to levels up disparity in other words,
664
00:27:02,099 --> 00:27:05,549
they go too far away from equilibrium.
665
00:27:05,669 --> 00:27:07,139
Okay? And that's where opportunity is
666
00:27:07,199 --> 00:27:09,089
you want to see price be pulled to these
667
00:27:09,089 --> 00:27:10,919
levels, okay, and every quarter there's
668
00:27:11,099 --> 00:27:13,559
a specific, you know, tug of war that
669
00:27:13,559 --> 00:27:15,329
takes place where price has gone too far
670
00:27:15,329 --> 00:27:16,949
higher than they should have been too
671
00:27:16,949 --> 00:27:18,539
far lower than they should have. And
672
00:27:18,539 --> 00:27:19,649
then there's an opportunity when you
673
00:27:19,649 --> 00:27:21,569
trade these extreme levels, you have
674
00:27:21,569 --> 00:27:23,219
monthly highs and lows as well which is
675
00:27:23,219 --> 00:27:24,869
basically the four week range most
676
00:27:24,869 --> 00:27:26,579
highest high and lowest low in this four
677
00:27:26,579 --> 00:27:29,099
week range. Basically, if you just look
678
00:27:29,099 --> 00:27:31,109
at your, your trading platform, just
679
00:27:31,139 --> 00:27:32,729
mark out the previous months high and
680
00:27:32,729 --> 00:27:35,399
low. Boom, you got it. You have weekly
681
00:27:35,399 --> 00:27:37,079
highs and lows. Okay, the previous
682
00:27:37,079 --> 00:27:38,939
week's high and low and I like to look
683
00:27:38,969 --> 00:27:43,529
at at least two or three weeks worth, if
684
00:27:43,529 --> 00:27:45,599
I'm looking at weekly ranges. I like to
685
00:27:45,599 --> 00:27:47,939
look at that because every swing point
686
00:27:47,939 --> 00:27:50,849
is going to be made with three candles,
687
00:27:50,879 --> 00:27:52,859
okay, whether it be a monthly chart,
688
00:27:52,889 --> 00:27:54,149
weekly chart, daily chart doesn't
689
00:27:54,149 --> 00:27:55,349
matter. Every swing high and low is
690
00:27:55,349 --> 00:27:57,689
going to be seen with at least three
691
00:27:57,689 --> 00:28:00,479
candles. Okay, so I'd like to look With
692
00:28:00,479 --> 00:28:04,169
a background of at least three candles
693
00:28:04,169 --> 00:28:06,119
in perspective, even though I'm looking
694
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:07,529
at weekly highs and lows, I'm still
695
00:28:07,529 --> 00:28:10,469
referencing at least three. The previous
696
00:28:10,469 --> 00:28:11,999
week's high and low are very sensitive
697
00:28:11,999 --> 00:28:14,519
as well. Now we have the daily highs and
698
00:28:14,519 --> 00:28:14,699
lows,
699
00:28:15,059 --> 00:28:17,429
obviously the previous 24 hour range.
700
00:28:17,789 --> 00:28:19,349
Then we have session highs and lows that
701
00:28:19,349 --> 00:28:20,999
would be the highest high and lowest low
702
00:28:20,999 --> 00:28:23,549
in during the asian session. The highest
703
00:28:23,549 --> 00:28:24,779
high and the lowest low during the
704
00:28:24,779 --> 00:28:27,329
London session and the highest high and
705
00:28:27,329 --> 00:28:29,909
lowest low the New York session. There's
706
00:28:29,909 --> 00:28:31,859
also intraday fractals, okay that you
707
00:28:31,859 --> 00:28:34,019
could be looking for. That gives you
708
00:28:34,049 --> 00:28:35,819
your support resistance net, a lot of
709
00:28:35,819 --> 00:28:38,849
times based with range trading and
710
00:28:38,849 --> 00:28:41,009
pattern trading. And then obviously, the
711
00:28:41,009 --> 00:28:43,409
least of all of importance to me is
712
00:28:43,409 --> 00:28:46,169
trendline analysis channels and support
713
00:28:46,169 --> 00:28:49,589
and supply and demand lines. They to me
714
00:28:51,359 --> 00:28:54,509
if it's not horizontal, driven, I'm not
715
00:28:54,509 --> 00:28:57,989
interested. So if there's anyone that is
716
00:28:58,139 --> 00:28:59,879
looking for me to talk about trend
717
00:28:59,879 --> 00:29:02,759
lines, Okay, diagnol up and down, or Tom
718
00:29:02,759 --> 00:29:05,399
demark trend lines, because, yes, I read
719
00:29:05,399 --> 00:29:07,649
the book in new science and technical
720
00:29:07,649 --> 00:29:08,969
analysis when it first came out, I had
721
00:29:08,969 --> 00:29:12,149
the first print edition, and I'm sorry,
722
00:29:12,149 --> 00:29:13,799
I just don't see any value in them. And
723
00:29:13,859 --> 00:29:15,569
I have other tools that give me a lot
724
00:29:15,569 --> 00:29:18,089
more indication for those Tom demark
725
00:29:18,089 --> 00:29:20,429
trend lines break, I already know what
726
00:29:20,819 --> 00:29:22,259
you know, is most likely going to
727
00:29:22,259 --> 00:29:23,999
happen. And I'm usually in there before
728
00:29:23,999 --> 00:29:26,069
the trend rolling break. And that's
729
00:29:26,069 --> 00:29:28,019
usually what professionals are doing,
730
00:29:28,019 --> 00:29:29,279
they're getting in here before the move
731
00:29:29,279 --> 00:29:30,689
takes place. So that's the basis of what
732
00:29:30,689 --> 00:29:32,219
we're doing. We want to be in there
733
00:29:32,219 --> 00:29:34,889
before the markets are moving. And trend
734
00:29:34,889 --> 00:29:36,959
lines, just unfortunately, are just too
735
00:29:36,959 --> 00:29:39,029
late to the party. Now implied support
736
00:29:39,029 --> 00:29:40,889
resistance levels are things like
737
00:29:40,889 --> 00:29:42,779
Fibonacci levels, okay. retracements and
738
00:29:42,779 --> 00:29:45,929
extensions, pivot points, okay. Monthly
739
00:29:45,929 --> 00:29:48,959
pivots, weekly pivots, daily pivots. And
740
00:29:49,469 --> 00:29:55,049
by having those levels, okay, you have a
741
00:29:55,679 --> 00:29:57,239
data they don't work by themselves.
742
00:29:57,239 --> 00:29:59,219
There's no magic to them, okay? But when
743
00:29:59,219 --> 00:30:01,529
you incorporate The natural support
744
00:30:01,529 --> 00:30:03,179
resistance levels with implied support
745
00:30:03,179 --> 00:30:04,859
resistance level concepts like Fibonacci
746
00:30:04,859 --> 00:30:09,029
and pivots. It's it's mind blowing how
747
00:30:10,829 --> 00:30:12,899
powerful the setups are when you have
748
00:30:12,899 --> 00:30:14,519
those loose coupling or these
749
00:30:14,519 --> 00:30:16,889
confluences of both forms of support
750
00:30:16,889 --> 00:30:21,299
resistance. Now, obviously, when we
751
00:30:21,299 --> 00:30:23,519
talked about 12, months highs and lows,
752
00:30:24,599 --> 00:30:26,459
this is this real quick graphic
753
00:30:26,459 --> 00:30:30,749
depiction of looking at 1997. You can
754
00:30:30,749 --> 00:30:32,369
see how price when we traded back up to
755
00:30:32,369 --> 00:30:35,939
that same general area in 2006. price
756
00:30:35,939 --> 00:30:39,149
was really giving you opportunities to
757
00:30:39,179 --> 00:30:41,819
define sell signals. Now, obviously,
758
00:30:42,269 --> 00:30:44,159
there's no there's no guarantee that
759
00:30:44,159 --> 00:30:45,959
price is going to return to those levels
760
00:30:45,959 --> 00:30:48,509
stop on a dime not go do not go through
761
00:30:48,509 --> 00:30:49,379
it just a little bit. It might go
762
00:30:49,379 --> 00:30:52,559
through, you know, a lot more than you
763
00:30:52,559 --> 00:30:54,239
probably think it will obviously, but
764
00:30:54,239 --> 00:30:57,299
then the patterns that exist at these
765
00:30:57,299 --> 00:30:58,589
levels, you would be looking for sell
766
00:30:58,589 --> 00:31:02,969
scenarios. bearish divergence optimal
767
00:31:02,969 --> 00:31:05,129
trade entry sell signals you bearish
768
00:31:05,129 --> 00:31:08,099
bats bearish butterflies bearish crabs
769
00:31:08,099 --> 00:31:10,469
bear everything that you would look for
770
00:31:10,529 --> 00:31:12,719
on a bearish level. Okay turtle soups
771
00:31:12,779 --> 00:31:14,939
okay. This is really actually giving you
772
00:31:14,939 --> 00:31:17,489
a turtle soup setup where turtle soup is
773
00:31:17,489 --> 00:31:20,369
a false breakout and it moves above the
774
00:31:20,369 --> 00:31:23,519
tooth I'm excited 99 seven high and then
775
00:31:23,519 --> 00:31:25,469
it quickly rejected and moved a
776
00:31:25,469 --> 00:31:27,839
considerable amount of pips lower. Now
777
00:31:27,869 --> 00:31:30,209
it did return back to that 240 level,
778
00:31:30,419 --> 00:31:32,909
but it's still moved a significant means
779
00:31:32,939 --> 00:31:38,039
of price movement in terms of pips, and
780
00:31:38,039 --> 00:31:39,029
that's really all you're looking for.
781
00:31:39,029 --> 00:31:42,359
You're looking for scenarios that give
782
00:31:42,359 --> 00:31:44,789
you high odds setups. Now obviously
783
00:31:44,819 --> 00:31:46,859
monthly, I'm sorry 12 month highs and
784
00:31:46,859 --> 00:31:48,449
lows. They don't really set up a whole
785
00:31:48,449 --> 00:31:50,129
lot. Okay, but there are significant
786
00:31:50,129 --> 00:31:53,489
price levels you have to be aware of. We
787
00:31:53,489 --> 00:31:55,499
talked about earlier one of the ones I
788
00:31:55,499 --> 00:31:57,569
really enjoy looking for and doing a lot
789
00:31:57,569 --> 00:31:59,039
of my studies with is the quarterly
790
00:31:59,039 --> 00:32:03,719
highs and lows You can see here, the the
791
00:32:03,719 --> 00:32:06,119
price on this example shown how price
792
00:32:06,119 --> 00:32:09,539
came down to just briefly blew through
793
00:32:09,569 --> 00:32:13,589
the previous low made in this is in the
794
00:32:14,309 --> 00:32:16,499
sample size of data. During the month of
795
00:32:16,529 --> 00:32:18,689
April, the load was formed there during
796
00:32:18,719 --> 00:32:20,969
June, it came down to that level swept
797
00:32:20,969 --> 00:32:22,049
it just a little bit and look at the
798
00:32:22,049 --> 00:32:24,569
reaction after that explosive to the
799
00:32:24,569 --> 00:32:27,179
upside. Now, what we're going to talk
800
00:32:27,179 --> 00:32:29,609
about is moment it makes that lower low
801
00:32:29,669 --> 00:32:31,619
in June comparable to the low that was
802
00:32:31,619 --> 00:32:33,899
made in April. When we look at that
803
00:32:33,929 --> 00:32:35,699
phenomenon taking place there, there's a
804
00:32:35,699 --> 00:32:36,899
pattern that we're going to be looking
805
00:32:36,899 --> 00:32:38,999
forward to it helps us measure the
806
00:32:38,999 --> 00:32:40,649
institutional sponsorship behind
807
00:32:40,649 --> 00:32:42,389
specific types of moves like that. And
808
00:32:42,389 --> 00:32:43,919
you'll clearly see that these things are
809
00:32:43,919 --> 00:32:47,069
not in any way, shape or form indicative
810
00:32:47,069 --> 00:32:48,959
of continuation going lower and in fact,
811
00:32:48,959 --> 00:32:50,729
there are many times accumulation
812
00:32:50,819 --> 00:32:54,149
patterns. Obviously, you know, monthly
813
00:32:54,149 --> 00:32:56,459
highs and lows. It's not rocket science.
814
00:32:56,459 --> 00:32:58,409
You can see that it didn't look at this
815
00:32:58,469 --> 00:33:01,649
many examples here. Trading old monthly
816
00:33:01,649 --> 00:33:04,349
highs and lows. Okay just simply looking
817
00:33:04,349 --> 00:33:07,229
at the old monthly highs and lows
818
00:33:07,229 --> 00:33:09,989
drawing your lines on them and waiting
819
00:33:09,989 --> 00:33:10,829
for price to get to them.
820
00:33:11,490 --> 00:33:13,530
There's a lot of opportunities just
821
00:33:13,710 --> 00:33:16,260
using this example. Okay where you could
822
00:33:16,260 --> 00:33:19,140
do swing trades and do a just a small
823
00:33:19,140 --> 00:33:21,210
handful a year and carve out an
824
00:33:21,210 --> 00:33:24,240
absolutely stunning return and not even
825
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:25,860
have to be trading full time you could
826
00:33:25,860 --> 00:33:27,780
be doing your nine to five desk jockey
827
00:33:27,780 --> 00:33:30,480
job, your average Joe going to work come
828
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,220
home and you know see what you've done
829
00:33:32,220 --> 00:33:34,560
in the marketplace. You can do and a
830
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,330
type of trading with monthly highs and
831
00:33:36,330 --> 00:33:39,810
lows is simply simply sitting down
832
00:33:39,810 --> 00:33:41,520
through charts, putting the lines in
833
00:33:41,730 --> 00:33:43,020
waiting for price to get to those levels
834
00:33:43,020 --> 00:33:45,900
you can use a cell phone to alert you in
835
00:33:45,900 --> 00:33:47,370
price trades of those and then simply
836
00:33:47,430 --> 00:33:48,870
just pull it up real quick and take
837
00:33:48,870 --> 00:33:50,760
yourself to the bathroom at work. Pull
838
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:55,020
up pull up your your your intraday price
839
00:33:55,020 --> 00:33:57,150
action software that you would be able
840
00:33:57,150 --> 00:33:59,340
to use on your your smartphone and if
841
00:33:59,340 --> 00:34:00,270
you don't have a smartphone You're
842
00:34:00,270 --> 00:34:02,070
looking to trade forex, you kind of got
843
00:34:02,070 --> 00:34:03,390
to get with the program and get caught
844
00:34:03,390 --> 00:34:05,040
up because it's really, it's an
845
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,110
invaluable tool. Because you can
846
00:34:07,110 --> 00:34:09,480
actually do a lot of intraday trading
847
00:34:09,510 --> 00:34:11,370
while you're at work and not saying, you
848
00:34:11,370 --> 00:34:13,710
know, cheat your boss and sit from your
849
00:34:13,710 --> 00:34:15,240
phone all day, but it only takes a few
850
00:34:15,240 --> 00:34:16,890
minutes. Once your alerts tell you that
851
00:34:16,890 --> 00:34:18,930
prices reach to these specific levels,
852
00:34:19,170 --> 00:34:21,270
you can say, Okay, well, we went up to a
853
00:34:21,270 --> 00:34:26,400
specific level at 110 670. And I think
854
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:27,510
that price is probably going to be
855
00:34:27,510 --> 00:34:30,120
bearish there. And if price sells off a
856
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:31,500
little bit that's indicative of we're
857
00:34:31,500 --> 00:34:34,050
looking for if it trades back up to you
858
00:34:34,050 --> 00:34:35,550
know, specific level and that doesn't
859
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,980
meet that same price level in order to
860
00:34:37,980 --> 00:34:39,600
fail your swing or optimal trade entry
861
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:41,280
sell. You can put your limit order right
862
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,620
there. And then there you go, your your
863
00:34:43,620 --> 00:34:45,450
known stop loss would be in place you
864
00:34:45,450 --> 00:34:47,340
could put your limit order for entry,
865
00:34:47,730 --> 00:34:49,320
and your take profits, you know, and
866
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,390
just simply let it go on autopilot. And
867
00:34:51,390 --> 00:34:53,010
you can you can trade monthly highs and
868
00:34:53,010 --> 00:34:55,440
lows with a day job and it's wonderful
869
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,270
how many opportunities to set up over
870
00:34:57,270 --> 00:35:00,810
just a small sample set of pairs. Weekly
871
00:35:00,810 --> 00:35:03,120
highs and lows, same scenario. You don't
872
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:04,770
need to be trading full time sitting in
873
00:35:04,770 --> 00:35:06,030
front of charts to trade weekly highs
874
00:35:06,030 --> 00:35:08,880
and lows. You can see the example here
875
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:10,950
where price comes down for the Euro yen.
876
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:13,770
Explosive move just coming right back
877
00:35:13,770 --> 00:35:17,370
down to an old low. Just an old previous
878
00:35:17,370 --> 00:35:20,520
week low bang explodes to the upside
879
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,460
huge move that's 300 pips, okay, and
880
00:35:23,490 --> 00:35:26,130
that's all inside of you know a short
881
00:35:26,130 --> 00:35:28,530
span of time again as a swing trader
882
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,830
working off the idea of working at a job
883
00:35:31,830 --> 00:35:33,840
and not having to be able to sit in from
884
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:35,130
your charts and maybe you're developing
885
00:35:35,130 --> 00:35:36,000
trader and that's how you're gonna have
886
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,040
to start weekly highs and lows much like
887
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,140
we did with the quarterly and monthly
888
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,210
are absolutely phenomenal levels we King
889
00:35:42,210 --> 00:35:46,140
up on. All right now the daily highs and
890
00:35:46,140 --> 00:35:47,490
lows obviously you can still reference
891
00:35:47,490 --> 00:35:51,750
that if you are, you know, a part time
892
00:35:51,750 --> 00:35:53,580
trader or one that is unable to be in
893
00:35:53,580 --> 00:35:54,960
front of the charts every single day but
894
00:35:55,260 --> 00:35:57,780
previous day's highs and lows are really
895
00:35:57,780 --> 00:35:59,880
the wonderful setups that day traders
896
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,910
can Because the banks are looking at
897
00:36:02,910 --> 00:36:05,130
these levels, and I like to look at the
898
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:08,280
at least three days worth of data in
899
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:09,870
other words I'm looking at today and the
900
00:36:09,870 --> 00:36:12,690
previous two days before it, sometimes
901
00:36:12,690 --> 00:36:14,430
maybe a day before that, but I'm looking
902
00:36:14,430 --> 00:36:17,010
for at least three days worth of data.
903
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,890
Okay to see where key high some key
904
00:36:19,890 --> 00:36:22,320
highs and lows are. And I can look for
905
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,810
rejections at these specific levels and
906
00:36:24,810 --> 00:36:27,480
anticipate price patterns forming if
907
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,040
they line up with specific times of the
908
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,320
day like New York session open and
909
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:36,120
London session open. Now, obviously, in
910
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:37,680
greater detail, the asian session highs
911
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:39,990
and lows are really beneficial,
912
00:36:39,990 --> 00:36:42,240
especially if you're a London trader and
913
00:36:42,270 --> 00:36:44,430
New York trader. And again, this is now
914
00:36:44,430 --> 00:36:46,800
speaking specific to those individuals
915
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,740
that are day traders or short term
916
00:36:49,740 --> 00:36:52,110
scalpers because these price levels are
917
00:36:52,110 --> 00:36:54,540
highly sensitive on an intraday basis.
918
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,150
You can catch many times, you know
919
00:36:57,510 --> 00:37:01,110
1015 2030 pips intraday basis by
920
00:37:01,110 --> 00:37:02,910
utilizing the asian session high and
921
00:37:02,910 --> 00:37:03,210
low.
922
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:09,270
I, I adopted a style of the Asian range
923
00:37:09,690 --> 00:37:11,850
that was taught through Chris Laurie's
924
00:37:11,850 --> 00:37:13,920
work. That's really where I learned the
925
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,590
Asian range from, I tweaked a little
926
00:37:16,590 --> 00:37:18,630
bit, he has a little bit of a different
927
00:37:18,870 --> 00:37:22,050
time window. It's not much, but I just
928
00:37:22,050 --> 00:37:24,480
incorporated the way I used price action
929
00:37:24,750 --> 00:37:28,170
in the globex s&p 500 market. And that's
930
00:37:28,170 --> 00:37:30,570
basically using the five I'm sorry, the
931
00:37:30,570 --> 00:37:33,300
midnight timeframe of New York. That's
932
00:37:33,300 --> 00:37:35,640
my beginning basis of the new day. And
933
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,610
that's where I end the latter parameter
934
00:37:38,610 --> 00:37:40,170
for the agent session. So even though it
935
00:37:40,170 --> 00:37:42,030
states here that for I am these times,
936
00:37:42,030 --> 00:37:43,860
as you see here, beginning and ending,
937
00:37:44,250 --> 00:37:46,590
these are going to be New York Times and
938
00:37:46,590 --> 00:37:50,100
unfortunately, I tried to, to consider
939
00:37:50,370 --> 00:37:53,250
all of the possible ideal scenarios I
940
00:37:53,250 --> 00:37:55,590
can teach this in a way where everybody
941
00:37:55,590 --> 00:37:56,730
all around the world because there's a
942
00:37:56,730 --> 00:37:58,230
lot of people to follow me in different
943
00:37:58,260 --> 00:38:00,720
parts of the world. I'm not Going to go
944
00:38:00,720 --> 00:38:03,510
into trying to make sure that the times
945
00:38:03,690 --> 00:38:06,180
are lining up for you. Okay, so the way
946
00:38:06,210 --> 00:38:09,360
you're gonna learn the easiest for me is
947
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,040
understand that I live on the east coast
948
00:38:11,070 --> 00:38:13,410
of North America. So basically, whatever
949
00:38:13,410 --> 00:38:15,750
time it is in New York, that's what time
950
00:38:15,750 --> 00:38:18,060
I'm in. So every time I'm talking about
951
00:38:18,060 --> 00:38:21,360
specific times 90% of the time I'm
952
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,120
referring to my local time, and then
953
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,370
just, it's easy, easier for you to just
954
00:38:26,370 --> 00:38:29,010
get yourself a cheap watch instead of to
955
00:38:29,010 --> 00:38:30,690
New York time and just have that when
956
00:38:30,690 --> 00:38:32,160
you're watching my videos or watching
957
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,140
this, this type of information and I'm
958
00:38:34,140 --> 00:38:35,280
looking at your charts because you'll
959
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:36,900
know what I'm doing and what I'm
960
00:38:36,900 --> 00:38:40,260
expecting based on an idea. Obviously,
961
00:38:40,260 --> 00:38:41,670
that's in the same vein that we talked
962
00:38:41,670 --> 00:38:43,560
about with the asian session, the London
963
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,300
session highs and lows now, London
964
00:38:45,300 --> 00:38:46,560
session highs and lows are going to be
965
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,170
very influential in terms of your New
966
00:38:49,170 --> 00:38:50,670
York trading if you're a New York
967
00:38:50,670 --> 00:38:52,230
intraday trader, and on average, if you
968
00:38:52,230 --> 00:38:54,000
start your trading, okay, a lot of
969
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:55,500
people can't get up during the London
970
00:38:55,500 --> 00:38:57,960
session. I don't know why is a lot of
971
00:38:57,960 --> 00:38:59,520
money to be made, and it's absolutely
972
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:03,270
The best entries for the daily range if
973
00:39:03,270 --> 00:39:05,820
you're gonna be trading it, obviously in
974
00:39:05,820 --> 00:39:07,350
the London session, but I understand
975
00:39:07,350 --> 00:39:08,490
there's a lot of people that can't do it
976
00:39:08,490 --> 00:39:10,230
because of time constraints and family
977
00:39:10,230 --> 00:39:12,570
commitments and maybe even jobs. But if
978
00:39:12,570 --> 00:39:13,830
you're gonna be a New York session
979
00:39:13,830 --> 00:39:15,840
trader, you have to at least reference
980
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,010
the London session highs and lows
981
00:39:17,010 --> 00:39:18,930
because they're going to be paramount to
982
00:39:18,930 --> 00:39:21,090
the swings that set up during the New
983
00:39:21,090 --> 00:39:23,490
York session. If you do not understand
984
00:39:23,550 --> 00:39:25,710
London session highs and lows. Just take
985
00:39:25,710 --> 00:39:28,350
a couple weeks and go through the
986
00:39:28,350 --> 00:39:31,500
previous data on your platform. Mark
987
00:39:31,500 --> 00:39:34,110
those out and see what trades set up
988
00:39:34,140 --> 00:39:36,810
during the New York session timeframe on
989
00:39:36,810 --> 00:39:38,460
an intraday basis and how many pips are
990
00:39:38,460 --> 00:39:40,440
available just by incorporating those
991
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:41,910
specific price points and you'll be
992
00:39:41,910 --> 00:39:45,150
absolutely astonished. And obviously,
993
00:39:45,150 --> 00:39:47,010
the New York session highs and lows will
994
00:39:47,010 --> 00:39:51,030
be influential for the new asian session
995
00:39:51,030 --> 00:39:53,790
that starts up Okay, so the the calendar
996
00:39:54,180 --> 00:39:56,490
that follows the sun around the globe
997
00:39:56,490 --> 00:39:59,700
here in Planet Earth in the investment
998
00:39:59,700 --> 00:40:03,030
world. trading day, whatever session
999
00:40:03,030 --> 00:40:04,560
highs and lows form in the New York
1000
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:05,820
session, okay are going to be
1001
00:40:05,820 --> 00:40:07,710
influential during the asian session.
1002
00:40:07,890 --> 00:40:11,130
Okay, so the asian session requires and
1003
00:40:11,130 --> 00:40:13,350
references to New York session end, the
1004
00:40:13,350 --> 00:40:15,870
previous London session highs and lows
1005
00:40:16,260 --> 00:40:18,480
and New York session references the
1006
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,400
previous London session and asian
1007
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:22,110
session. So you're always looking back
1008
00:40:22,110 --> 00:40:24,630
at least two sessions before the trading
1009
00:40:24,630 --> 00:40:26,130
session that you're trading now, by
1010
00:40:26,130 --> 00:40:28,350
having that it gives you all of the the
1011
00:40:28,350 --> 00:40:31,230
intraday fractals, okay, that are most
1012
00:40:31,230 --> 00:40:32,640
likely going to be influential in terms
1013
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:33,750
of support resistance on an intraday
1014
00:40:33,750 --> 00:40:37,530
basis. And like we just said intraday
1015
00:40:37,530 --> 00:40:39,990
fractals highs and lows are going to be,
1016
00:40:40,530 --> 00:40:43,920
you know, swings that form and retrace
1017
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,440
back into previous session highs and
1018
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:48,630
lows and by understanding that concept
1019
00:40:48,690 --> 00:40:50,850
of intraday range, and where we're at in
1020
00:40:50,850 --> 00:40:52,110
terms of directional premise for the
1021
00:40:52,110 --> 00:40:54,210
high or low forming for that particular
1022
00:40:54,210 --> 00:40:55,710
day. They're going to give you a
1023
00:40:55,710 --> 00:40:58,710
framework to at least look for trading
1024
00:40:58,710 --> 00:41:01,950
scenarios to in sync with momentum, or
1025
00:41:02,220 --> 00:41:04,890
maybe even take profits. As you know,
1026
00:41:05,070 --> 00:41:06,930
price reaches up to these old levels,
1027
00:41:07,710 --> 00:41:09,180
that may be a good indication to take
1028
00:41:09,180 --> 00:41:13,050
your profits. Now, institutional price
1029
00:41:13,050 --> 00:41:15,690
levels are ones that we like to follow,
1030
00:41:15,780 --> 00:41:18,510
and they're very simple. Okay. And
1031
00:41:18,570 --> 00:41:21,270
honestly, as a new trader, this is where
1032
00:41:21,270 --> 00:41:23,370
I tell everyone to start with, if you
1033
00:41:23,370 --> 00:41:26,820
simply look at the 100 point levels in
1034
00:41:26,820 --> 00:41:28,860
other words, for instance, you're
1035
00:41:28,860 --> 00:41:30,420
looking at the British Pound USD pair
1036
00:41:30,420 --> 00:41:32,910
here as a sample set. If you mark off
1037
00:41:32,910 --> 00:41:37,320
the 160 level, and you mark off the 161
1038
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:38,400
level, which doesn't appear on this
1039
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,890
chart, okay, they would be your 100
1040
00:41:40,890 --> 00:41:44,760
levels, okay, or big figure levels. In
1041
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,040
between halfway between that is a 50 PIP
1042
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:48,960
mark, okay. In other words, it would be
1043
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,290
159 50 level. Okay, that's your mid
1044
00:41:52,290 --> 00:41:54,840
figure level, in between the big figure
1045
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:58,110
160 and 169 50. Okay, we look for the
1046
00:41:58,110 --> 00:41:59,730
159 at level
1047
00:42:00,149 --> 00:42:03,449
Okay, and in between 159 50 and 159,
1048
00:42:03,479 --> 00:42:05,969
even big figure level, we'd look for the
1049
00:42:05,969 --> 00:42:10,679
159 20. Now. And in summary, we're
1050
00:42:10,679 --> 00:42:13,679
looking for the 00 levels, the 80
1051
00:42:13,679 --> 00:42:16,469
levels, the 50 levels, and the 20
1052
00:42:16,469 --> 00:42:19,349
levels. And then obviously, the lower 00
1053
00:42:19,349 --> 00:42:21,329
level again, and this goes across the
1054
00:42:21,359 --> 00:42:23,609
price action that you're trading around
1055
00:42:23,609 --> 00:42:26,129
now. And what I do is I look at about a
1056
00:42:26,129 --> 00:42:29,309
300 PIP range based on wherever at
1057
00:42:29,309 --> 00:42:32,549
trading at market, and I go up 300 pips
1058
00:42:32,549 --> 00:42:34,259
and I go down 300 pips and I look at
1059
00:42:34,259 --> 00:42:36,689
those price levels. If you do that as a
1060
00:42:36,689 --> 00:42:38,639
beginning neophyte trader and you say
1061
00:42:38,639 --> 00:42:40,829
you're questioning your your prowess as
1062
00:42:41,759 --> 00:42:43,229
being able to identify support
1063
00:42:43,229 --> 00:42:44,699
resistance levels, or maybe you can't be
1064
00:42:44,699 --> 00:42:46,799
in front of the charts all the time, and
1065
00:42:46,799 --> 00:42:48,659
you just want a real quick, clean
1066
00:42:49,169 --> 00:42:51,299
approach to support resistance. This is
1067
00:42:51,299 --> 00:42:53,339
it. Okay, this is the one you're looking
1068
00:42:53,339 --> 00:42:55,529
for, because there will be enough
1069
00:42:55,559 --> 00:42:57,419
trading patterns to form over the course
1070
00:42:57,449 --> 00:43:01,289
of a month that if you You aren't able
1071
00:43:01,289 --> 00:43:03,329
to trade every single day of the day
1072
00:43:03,329 --> 00:43:05,369
trader, not that you should trade every
1073
00:43:05,369 --> 00:43:07,289
day. But if you're not able to do that
1074
00:43:07,289 --> 00:43:09,059
be in front of the charts every single
1075
00:43:09,059 --> 00:43:11,849
day. By using these types of levels and
1076
00:43:11,849 --> 00:43:13,439
looking at the higher monthly, weekly
1077
00:43:13,439 --> 00:43:15,119
and daily, you'll find trade setups,
1078
00:43:15,119 --> 00:43:19,319
they'll be there. The the ability to, to
1079
00:43:19,349 --> 00:43:22,439
remove the uncertainty or the emotional
1080
00:43:22,439 --> 00:43:24,779
charge that comes with how many levels
1081
00:43:24,839 --> 00:43:26,009
you know, how many lines should I have
1082
00:43:26,009 --> 00:43:27,749
on my chart and what take all that out
1083
00:43:27,749 --> 00:43:29,279
of the equation and just simply say,
1084
00:43:29,279 --> 00:43:30,389
Okay, I'm gonna be looking at the big
1085
00:43:30,389 --> 00:43:33,269
figures, 00 levels, the mid figures to
1086
00:43:33,269 --> 00:43:35,879
50 levels, to 80 levels and the 20
1087
00:43:35,879 --> 00:43:37,679
levels. And the reason why these levels
1088
00:43:37,679 --> 00:43:40,469
are so significant is because
1089
00:43:40,709 --> 00:43:43,979
institutional traders, many times their
1090
00:43:43,979 --> 00:43:46,949
order blocks are around these particular
1091
00:43:46,949 --> 00:43:49,499
price levels. That's why it's uncanny
1092
00:43:49,499 --> 00:43:51,029
how price goes to these particular
1093
00:43:51,029 --> 00:43:55,829
levels. The The, the banks are taking
1094
00:43:56,099 --> 00:43:59,489
action and providing liquidity for
1095
00:43:59,489 --> 00:44:03,719
traders At these price points, Citi Bank
1096
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:05,549
is not having a trade out there with
1097
00:44:05,549 --> 00:44:08,639
159 17. That's not their order. That's
1098
00:44:08,639 --> 00:44:10,739
not that that's not their block. Okay?
1099
00:44:10,949 --> 00:44:13,769
They will have 159 20, they will have
1100
00:44:13,769 --> 00:44:16,199
159 evens, they won't, they will have
1101
00:44:16,199 --> 00:44:20,729
159 50. Okay, those levels are why many
1102
00:44:20,729 --> 00:44:22,259
times you'll see what you think is the
1103
00:44:22,259 --> 00:44:23,699
short term support resistance level that
1104
00:44:23,699 --> 00:44:26,459
may be at a weird off the wall number.
1105
00:44:26,819 --> 00:44:28,409
Many times price will go beyond that
1106
00:44:28,409 --> 00:44:29,909
despite a little bit but go right to one
1107
00:44:29,909 --> 00:44:31,619
of these levels and then turn around go
1108
00:44:31,619 --> 00:44:33,149
the other way. But if you're just
1109
00:44:33,149 --> 00:44:34,529
looking at what you think as a short
1110
00:44:34,529 --> 00:44:38,099
term, support resistance level, it may
1111
00:44:38,099 --> 00:44:40,469
not be enough. Okay, so for now, just
1112
00:44:40,469 --> 00:44:41,909
understand that these levels are very,
1113
00:44:41,909 --> 00:44:44,819
very psychologically sensitive, okay?
1114
00:44:44,819 --> 00:44:47,339
Because there's a real world business
1115
00:44:47,339 --> 00:44:49,379
need, okay, that's facilitated around
1116
00:44:49,379 --> 00:44:50,579
these price levels, and it's based on
1117
00:44:50,579 --> 00:44:53,699
institutional trading. We're gonna talk
1118
00:44:53,699 --> 00:44:55,619
a little bit more obviously, as we go
1119
00:44:55,619 --> 00:44:57,239
further about supporting systems but
1120
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,429
right now, you absolutely have no excuse
1121
00:44:59,429 --> 00:45:02,909
now. Zero excuses why you can't have
1122
00:45:02,939 --> 00:45:05,429
your charts properly lined up for
1123
00:45:05,429 --> 00:45:08,759
support resistance scenarios. There's a
1124
00:45:08,759 --> 00:45:11,549
lot of types of support resistance that
1125
00:45:11,549 --> 00:45:13,829
are made available to you. And when
1126
00:45:13,829 --> 00:45:16,139
price gets these price levels, what
1127
00:45:16,139 --> 00:45:17,309
you're going to be looking for is your
1128
00:45:17,309 --> 00:45:20,129
pattern. You may be simply a overbought
1129
00:45:20,159 --> 00:45:22,859
divergence trader. But if you trade up
1130
00:45:22,859 --> 00:45:25,049
into a resistance level based on the way
1131
00:45:25,049 --> 00:45:27,029
we defined it in the previous slides
1132
00:45:27,029 --> 00:45:30,869
here, that okay is going to be the
1133
00:45:30,869 --> 00:45:33,869
framework for you to engage price to get
1134
00:45:33,869 --> 00:45:35,969
an experience with price of
1135
00:45:35,969 --> 00:45:38,339
understanding how price reacts at these
1136
00:45:38,339 --> 00:45:40,439
levels. Looking at how your indicator
1137
00:45:40,439 --> 00:45:43,109
based analysis works and or doesn't
1138
00:45:43,109 --> 00:45:45,599
work, you're going to hone your
1139
00:45:45,599 --> 00:45:47,759
anticipatory skills. And again, it's not
1140
00:45:47,759 --> 00:45:49,469
important that you make money initially,
1141
00:45:49,499 --> 00:45:52,949
you want to learn how price behaves when
1142
00:45:52,949 --> 00:45:55,139
price gets to these levels. Many times
1143
00:45:55,139 --> 00:45:56,639
you're going to think that price should
1144
00:45:56,639 --> 00:45:58,439
absolutely turn on a dime and it won't
1145
00:45:58,439 --> 00:45:59,729
do it it'll go through and blow through
1146
00:45:59,729 --> 00:46:02,069
it actually Like, you'll learn more from
1147
00:46:02,069 --> 00:46:03,959
those environments than you will from
1148
00:46:03,959 --> 00:46:05,909
when the trades actually work out. Okay,
1149
00:46:05,909 --> 00:46:09,989
and it sounds like an oxymoron. But you
1150
00:46:09,989 --> 00:46:12,659
really do learn from the times that it
1151
00:46:12,659 --> 00:46:14,279
doesn't work out for you. And what it
1152
00:46:14,279 --> 00:46:17,309
does is also desensitize you, okay, from
1153
00:46:17,309 --> 00:46:20,759
when you see it not working. And then
1154
00:46:20,759 --> 00:46:21,929
when you actually eventually start
1155
00:46:21,929 --> 00:46:23,519
trading with real money and trading with
1156
00:46:23,519 --> 00:46:27,269
live funds, you'll understand that your
1157
00:46:27,269 --> 00:46:29,519
trade simply because it's worked eight
1158
00:46:29,519 --> 00:46:32,639
times over the last, you know, 10, it
1159
00:46:32,639 --> 00:46:34,589
doesn't always equate to 80% accuracy,
1160
00:46:34,679 --> 00:46:36,989
you're going to have that future
1161
00:46:37,049 --> 00:46:40,139
existence of a string of losses, okay,
1162
00:46:40,139 --> 00:46:43,139
and it doesn't make a difference how,
1163
00:46:43,619 --> 00:46:45,179
and that's why I don't like to preach
1164
00:46:45,179 --> 00:46:47,069
too hard about consistency in terms of
1165
00:46:47,069 --> 00:46:48,419
percentage, because it doesn't make any
1166
00:46:48,419 --> 00:46:50,489
difference. You can make an extremely
1167
00:46:50,489 --> 00:46:54,059
large amount of money and be 40%
1168
00:46:54,059 --> 00:46:56,669
profitable. You can have a win rate of
1169
00:46:56,669 --> 00:46:59,279
30% 30%
1170
00:46:59,340 --> 00:47:01,980
of the time. And make millions and
1171
00:47:01,980 --> 00:47:04,110
millions and millions of dollars. Now,
1172
00:47:04,620 --> 00:47:06,600
fortunately, I've, I've traded with a
1173
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:08,220
lot higher percentage of that,
1174
00:47:08,250 --> 00:47:09,450
obviously, I've been trading for two
1175
00:47:09,450 --> 00:47:12,060
decades. But you don't need a higher
1176
00:47:12,060 --> 00:47:14,040
percentage rate. Okay to make a lot of
1177
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:17,190
money, you need to have a consistency
1178
00:47:17,250 --> 00:47:19,530
rate that's high, okay, of doing the
1179
00:47:19,530 --> 00:47:21,150
same thing over and over and over again.
1180
00:47:21,300 --> 00:47:23,640
But in time, you'll have a selective
1181
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,490
process that will, yes, your quote
1182
00:47:26,490 --> 00:47:28,020
unquote method or system says there's a
1183
00:47:28,020 --> 00:47:30,090
likely trade sitting there. But you'll
1184
00:47:30,090 --> 00:47:32,460
also have a worldly knowledge that says,
1185
00:47:32,460 --> 00:47:35,190
You know what, it looks like it, but I'm
1186
00:47:35,190 --> 00:47:37,860
going to wait for the next scenario that
1187
00:47:37,860 --> 00:47:40,560
does this or that, okay. And that might
1188
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,510
fly again in the face of those that are
1189
00:47:42,510 --> 00:47:44,340
out there saying, well, that's wrong,
1190
00:47:44,340 --> 00:47:45,360
because you need to take every single
1191
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:47,970
thing and it's like this. I've been
1192
00:47:47,970 --> 00:47:50,220
doing for two decades, and I made a lot
1193
00:47:50,220 --> 00:47:51,900
of money, an obscene amount of money,
1194
00:47:51,930 --> 00:47:54,960
and I'm telling you what works and 90%
1195
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:56,430
of everything I'm telling you isn't in
1196
00:47:56,430 --> 00:47:58,980
books, that tells you something. If
1197
00:47:58,980 --> 00:48:00,960
you're if the guy are selling these
1198
00:48:00,990 --> 00:48:02,790
methods and systems and courses and
1199
00:48:02,790 --> 00:48:04,440
stuff tell you, you have to take every
1200
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:06,600
signal, or you're gonna miss that next
1201
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,220
winning trade, I get enough winning
1202
00:48:08,220 --> 00:48:09,870
trades. And my losses are small enough
1203
00:48:09,870 --> 00:48:12,090
that I don't care about missing the ones
1204
00:48:12,090 --> 00:48:14,010
that I didn't take and still panning
1205
00:48:14,010 --> 00:48:15,870
out, I don't care about them. Because
1206
00:48:15,870 --> 00:48:17,520
you're gonna see that there's a generic
1207
00:48:17,730 --> 00:48:20,730
method of trading, that you're going to
1208
00:48:20,730 --> 00:48:22,110
be in line with a professional
1209
00:48:22,110 --> 00:48:25,170
perspective. And by default, you will
1210
00:48:25,170 --> 00:48:27,390
see money move into your account. Think
1211
00:48:27,390 --> 00:48:30,600
about that, by default by no effort of
1212
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,000
your own, okay, except for the execution
1213
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,430
of your orders. There's going to be no
1214
00:48:35,460 --> 00:48:38,250
effort of your own that results in you
1215
00:48:38,250 --> 00:48:41,250
making that money. See the guys that do
1216
00:48:41,250 --> 00:48:44,760
the system. You beat your chest and you
1217
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:46,260
have to take every single signal, okay,
1218
00:48:46,260 --> 00:48:48,090
or you're not following the system. I'm
1219
00:48:48,090 --> 00:48:50,010
following my system. I'm following my
1220
00:48:50,010 --> 00:48:52,350
method. It's discretionary. And that's
1221
00:48:52,380 --> 00:48:54,600
the people that make money. If you look
1222
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:56,460
at system traders, they trade every
1223
00:48:56,460 --> 00:48:58,470
single trade. That's why their
1224
00:48:58,470 --> 00:49:01,290
percentage is Hurt, because they take
1225
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:05,760
every single trade, they don't learn to
1226
00:49:05,790 --> 00:49:08,400
anticipate when price action is really
1227
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:11,220
favored to move in a specific direction
1228
00:49:11,220 --> 00:49:13,740
or another, okay? And it comes with the
1229
00:49:13,740 --> 00:49:16,830
understanding of market tone, or risk on
1230
00:49:16,830 --> 00:49:18,630
risk off scenario. Okay, understanding
1231
00:49:18,660 --> 00:49:20,850
what the general markets doing, okay,
1232
00:49:20,850 --> 00:49:27,750
and they get too much complacency, okay
1233
00:49:27,780 --> 00:49:30,870
about trusting the system and not
1234
00:49:31,410 --> 00:49:35,790
learning to be a very sensitive price
1235
00:49:35,790 --> 00:49:38,340
action trader, I can see many times
1236
00:49:38,700 --> 00:49:40,770
turns in the market tied before they
1237
00:49:40,770 --> 00:49:42,840
actually are clearly discernible on the
1238
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:45,960
chart. And when I sit with people in
1239
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:48,330
live sessions, and they see that it's it
1240
00:49:48,330 --> 00:49:51,090
blows them away, because I'm not relying
1241
00:49:51,090 --> 00:49:52,770
on anything outside of my own
1242
00:49:52,770 --> 00:49:54,810
understanding of price action. And it's
1243
00:49:54,810 --> 00:49:56,310
not going to be found in books. You're
1244
00:49:56,310 --> 00:49:58,050
not going to get that but you will get
1245
00:49:58,050 --> 00:49:59,190
it by using these things that we're
1246
00:49:59,190 --> 00:50:02,130
teaching in these videos, buy skill sets
1247
00:50:02,130 --> 00:50:04,830
and URLs and exercises that force you to
1248
00:50:04,830 --> 00:50:08,490
look at price with very specific laser
1249
00:50:08,490 --> 00:50:10,590
guided perspectives, okay, specific
1250
00:50:10,590 --> 00:50:12,570
segments of price action certain times
1251
00:50:12,570 --> 00:50:14,220
of the day, certain times of the year,
1252
00:50:14,220 --> 00:50:16,470
certain specific months, okay? There's
1253
00:50:16,470 --> 00:50:18,690
the thing that, you know, that repeats
1254
00:50:18,690 --> 00:50:20,580
itself over and over and over again, but
1255
00:50:20,580 --> 00:50:24,270
systems don't see that. Okay? EAS don't
1256
00:50:24,270 --> 00:50:26,040
see that. They just want to catch the
1257
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:29,040
next minor aberration in price and I
1258
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:30,960
don't care about that. I want to see
1259
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,820
when, you know, UBS is coming in with a
1260
00:50:35,820 --> 00:50:37,950
large block of orders. Okay. That's what
1261
00:50:37,950 --> 00:50:39,720
I want to see. And that that's what
1262
00:50:39,750 --> 00:50:41,760
that's what moves price, huge
1263
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:44,730
institutional order flow, not rinky dink
1264
00:50:44,730 --> 00:50:46,890
little indicator based EA stuff. Okay,
1265
00:50:46,890 --> 00:50:48,570
that doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
1266
00:50:48,570 --> 00:50:50,160
It's mathematically derived. And I had
1267
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:52,410
no faith in all that stuff. I do have
1268
00:50:52,410 --> 00:50:53,910
faith and understanding what price has
1269
00:50:53,910 --> 00:50:56,250
done on the left side of my chart, and
1270
00:50:56,250 --> 00:50:57,750
what that indicates in terms of
1271
00:50:57,750 --> 00:50:59,070
institutional sponsorship, when you
1272
00:50:59,070 --> 00:51:01,500
understand that Everything else is
1273
00:51:01,500 --> 00:51:03,030
secondary. You want to have
1274
00:51:03,030 --> 00:51:04,140
institutional sponsorship in your
1275
00:51:04,140 --> 00:51:05,340
trading. And what we're gonna be
1276
00:51:05,340 --> 00:51:07,560
covering in here will help you do that
1277
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:08,040
as well.
1278
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:17,309
Alright guys, we're gonna be talking
1279
00:51:17,309 --> 00:51:19,979
about the CO t analysis concept, okay or
1280
00:51:20,159 --> 00:51:22,439
Commitment of Traders. Now, before I get
1281
00:51:22,439 --> 00:51:25,589
into this, you got to understand that a
1282
00:51:25,589 --> 00:51:28,289
lot of the stuff that I teach, okay, of
1283
00:51:28,289 --> 00:51:30,539
core principles that I have actually
1284
00:51:30,539 --> 00:51:32,639
derived from Larry Williams, and he's
1285
00:51:32,639 --> 00:51:34,649
obviously, you know, pretty well known
1286
00:51:34,649 --> 00:51:37,799
guy around the world. It's interesting
1287
00:51:37,799 --> 00:51:40,079
that if you research him, he's actually
1288
00:51:40,079 --> 00:51:42,119
on YouTube and in a couple different
1289
00:51:42,119 --> 00:51:43,919
videos, not that he published them other
1290
00:51:43,919 --> 00:51:46,919
people were like sharing them, but he
1291
00:51:46,919 --> 00:51:49,139
was doing a keynote speaker speaking
1292
00:51:49,139 --> 00:51:50,879
engagement where he was talking to
1293
00:51:50,939 --> 00:51:52,559
individual about specific types of
1294
00:51:52,559 --> 00:51:54,599
trading and asset classes and such and
1295
00:51:54,599 --> 00:51:56,519
how he's settled on futures and I used
1296
00:51:56,519 --> 00:51:58,559
to be a futures trader, but I segwayed
1297
00:51:58,589 --> 00:51:59,969
out of futures and moved into forex.
1298
00:51:59,999 --> 00:52:01,499
Because I do believe it's the best asset
1299
00:52:01,499 --> 00:52:03,899
class right now. It could change because
1300
00:52:03,899 --> 00:52:05,279
of things down the road we all know
1301
00:52:05,279 --> 00:52:07,109
about but as of right now, I think for
1302
00:52:07,109 --> 00:52:09,749
us, it's because you can tailor risk
1303
00:52:09,779 --> 00:52:12,269
parameters like no other. You can't You
1304
00:52:12,269 --> 00:52:13,799
can't do this in stocks. You can't do it
1305
00:52:13,799 --> 00:52:16,049
in, in commodities, because commodities
1306
00:52:16,049 --> 00:52:18,449
you have specific asset, I'm sorry, you
1307
00:52:18,449 --> 00:52:20,519
have specific contract specifications
1308
00:52:20,519 --> 00:52:22,469
that you have to work with. In forex,
1309
00:52:22,469 --> 00:52:24,659
you can trade for as little as one cent
1310
00:52:24,659 --> 00:52:26,429
per Pip. And not that you could do a
1311
00:52:26,429 --> 00:52:28,079
whole lot with that. But as a developing
1312
00:52:28,079 --> 00:52:29,129
learning trader, that's a wonderful
1313
00:52:29,129 --> 00:52:32,609
thing. And you can't learn outside of
1314
00:52:32,609 --> 00:52:34,379
paper trading the commodity market, you
1315
00:52:34,379 --> 00:52:37,019
know, without trading a medium contract,
1316
00:52:37,169 --> 00:52:38,729
you're starting to trade in a full lot
1317
00:52:38,729 --> 00:52:41,069
or a half a lot. And if you don't have
1318
00:52:41,069 --> 00:52:42,539
the capital to be able to do that,
1319
00:52:42,569 --> 00:52:46,739
you're pretty much out of the game. He
1320
00:52:46,859 --> 00:52:48,899
I'm referring to Larry Williams, he was
1321
00:52:48,899 --> 00:52:53,579
the probably the first person on the
1322
00:52:53,579 --> 00:52:56,069
planet that put Commitment of Traders on
1323
00:52:56,099 --> 00:52:58,349
the map, okay, and why it's important
1324
00:52:58,469 --> 00:53:03,479
and the CFT See, requires the large
1325
00:53:03,479 --> 00:53:05,489
traders that have reportable sizes in
1326
00:53:05,489 --> 00:53:07,799
their trading. They have to on a weekly
1327
00:53:07,799 --> 00:53:10,829
basis now divulge, you know whether
1328
00:53:10,829 --> 00:53:12,509
they're buying or selling on a net
1329
00:53:12,509 --> 00:53:15,389
basis. And that's a wonderful insight to
1330
00:53:15,389 --> 00:53:17,249
have. And I hope they never change that
1331
00:53:17,279 --> 00:53:19,829
transparency, because it gives us an X
1332
00:53:19,829 --> 00:53:21,719
ray view of real institutional
1333
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:25,889
sponsorship on a macro level. And what
1334
00:53:25,889 --> 00:53:27,299
you're going to see here as it relates
1335
00:53:27,299 --> 00:53:29,159
to commitment traders is nothing more
1336
00:53:29,159 --> 00:53:32,039
than what I learned back in 1990s. From
1337
00:53:32,039 --> 00:53:35,189
Larry Williams, okay, and it's still
1338
00:53:35,309 --> 00:53:37,349
wonderful. He was using the same stuff
1339
00:53:37,349 --> 00:53:39,209
in in the in the 1970s and made millions
1340
00:53:39,209 --> 00:53:40,829
of dollars doing it then and and stuff
1341
00:53:40,829 --> 00:53:41,849
still works and makes millions of
1342
00:53:41,849 --> 00:53:44,129
dollars now. So if you haven't
1343
00:53:44,129 --> 00:53:46,169
considered the commitment traders, and
1344
00:53:46,169 --> 00:53:48,869
your forex trader, you're pretty much
1345
00:53:48,899 --> 00:53:50,099
cheating yourself because it's a
1346
00:53:50,129 --> 00:53:53,369
wonderful resource to have. But what is
1347
00:53:53,369 --> 00:53:54,899
commitment traders and really what it
1348
00:53:54,899 --> 00:53:57,779
is, is you're looking at three groups.
1349
00:53:57,899 --> 00:53:59,609
Okay, three groups of traders. You have
1350
00:53:59,609 --> 00:54:00,929
the smallest speculators, which is kind
1351
00:54:00,929 --> 00:54:03,239
of like us, you know, we're people that
1352
00:54:03,599 --> 00:54:05,939
aren't trading with a astronomical level
1353
00:54:05,939 --> 00:54:09,089
of, you know, contracts in the futures
1354
00:54:09,089 --> 00:54:11,549
market. Obviously, most of you if not
1355
00:54:11,579 --> 00:54:13,109
all of you are watching this. You're a
1356
00:54:13,109 --> 00:54:15,959
forex traders. And we don't trade in
1357
00:54:16,529 --> 00:54:20,669
contracts, we trade in lots. We would
1358
00:54:20,669 --> 00:54:22,079
still be grouped in what we considered
1359
00:54:22,079 --> 00:54:24,539
the small speculators category. There's
1360
00:54:24,539 --> 00:54:26,489
a second group called the large
1361
00:54:26,489 --> 00:54:27,839
speculators and they're usually the
1362
00:54:27,839 --> 00:54:32,309
large hedge fund traders, okay. and nine
1363
00:54:32,309 --> 00:54:33,809
times out of time, they're right in the
1364
00:54:33,809 --> 00:54:35,999
trending environment. Okay. Where they
1365
00:54:35,999 --> 00:54:38,489
get hurt is when the trend reverses and
1366
00:54:38,489 --> 00:54:40,259
goes the other way, and that's okay.
1367
00:54:40,289 --> 00:54:42,689
they're okay with taking that they.
1368
00:54:43,829 --> 00:54:45,959
Institutional funds are predominantly
1369
00:54:46,079 --> 00:54:47,309
trend following in nature, they're
1370
00:54:47,309 --> 00:54:50,069
momentum type traders. They understand
1371
00:54:50,099 --> 00:54:52,889
the the large Evan flow on the macro
1372
00:54:52,889 --> 00:54:54,449
level, and they're able to ride that
1373
00:54:54,449 --> 00:54:56,879
stuff out because of their risk
1374
00:54:56,879 --> 00:54:58,829
parameters and their risk new models
1375
00:54:58,829 --> 00:55:00,599
that are in adopted. for that type of
1376
00:55:00,599 --> 00:55:03,659
trading, the third category of traders
1377
00:55:03,659 --> 00:55:05,729
for the commitment traders, data is the
1378
00:55:05,729 --> 00:55:07,769
commercials. Now the commercials are
1379
00:55:07,979 --> 00:55:10,469
grouped into categories you have a
1380
00:55:11,099 --> 00:55:14,129
commercial user, and you have a
1381
00:55:14,129 --> 00:55:17,039
commercial supplier. Okay, in a perfect
1382
00:55:17,039 --> 00:55:20,969
example that would be like cocoa, cocoa
1383
00:55:21,389 --> 00:55:23,909
is used to make chocolate, and there are
1384
00:55:23,939 --> 00:55:28,049
mass commercial growers of cocoa. And
1385
00:55:28,049 --> 00:55:30,209
then there's mass corporate users of
1386
00:55:30,209 --> 00:55:33,419
cocoa like Hershey and Nestle. And, you
1387
00:55:33,419 --> 00:55:35,759
know, anything else that would be you
1388
00:55:35,759 --> 00:55:37,709
know, a large commercial entity that
1389
00:55:37,709 --> 00:55:41,459
uses cocoa for chocolate producing they
1390
00:55:41,459 --> 00:55:44,249
have a real close ties to fundamental
1391
00:55:44,249 --> 00:55:46,049
supply and demand factors as it relates
1392
00:55:46,049 --> 00:55:49,679
to cocoa. Okay, and don't let me confuse
1393
00:55:49,679 --> 00:55:50,819
you. We're not talking about commodity
1394
00:55:50,819 --> 00:55:53,099
markets is you know, that's a soft but
1395
00:55:53,099 --> 00:55:54,509
we're going to talk about that
1396
00:55:55,530 --> 00:55:57,630
in the supply and demand equation and
1397
00:55:57,630 --> 00:56:00,000
how it's discernible through the
1398
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:02,940
utilization of the co2 data, deep
1399
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:04,440
commercial traders, whether they're
1400
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:07,410
either a supplier or commercial user,
1401
00:56:07,500 --> 00:56:11,400
they both have very sensitive ears and
1402
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:14,580
eyes, you know, closely watching the,
1403
00:56:14,970 --> 00:56:18,180
you know, the, the fundamentals okay of
1404
00:56:18,180 --> 00:56:20,880
cocoa. There's, that's not any anything
1405
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,850
different from a commodity, okay like
1406
00:56:23,850 --> 00:56:27,240
corn or wheat or gold or crude oil.
1407
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:31,290
Okay. And same thing with a currency.
1408
00:56:31,470 --> 00:56:34,560
Okay. Banks are watching the supply and
1409
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:36,600
demand for a specific country's currency
1410
00:56:38,850 --> 00:56:41,460
by following these individuals to have a
1411
00:56:41,550 --> 00:56:44,610
lot more people, okay, that their job is
1412
00:56:44,610 --> 00:56:46,740
primarily just simply to watch the
1413
00:56:46,740 --> 00:56:50,670
fundamental basis of is it under a large
1414
00:56:50,700 --> 00:56:53,640
level of demand or waning demand or is
1415
00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:54,990
there a large supply coming in the
1416
00:56:54,990 --> 00:56:57,060
marketplace? Okay, there there's trained
1417
00:56:57,060 --> 00:56:58,890
accredited staff for these large
1418
00:56:58,890 --> 00:57:02,520
commercial users. They are staffed just
1419
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:04,260
to do that very thing to watch the
1420
00:57:04,260 --> 00:57:06,600
fundamental drivers in that specific
1421
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:09,750
asset. Well think about it, if we were
1422
00:57:09,750 --> 00:57:11,970
able to watch that same phenomenon take
1423
00:57:11,970 --> 00:57:14,670
place with like the Swiss franc, or the
1424
00:57:14,670 --> 00:57:17,730
Japanese yen, or the Canadian dollar, or
1425
00:57:17,730 --> 00:57:20,130
the British pound, or the Australian
1426
00:57:20,130 --> 00:57:23,550
dollar that is astronomical in terms of
1427
00:57:23,820 --> 00:57:26,220
weeding out of huge amount of
1428
00:57:26,220 --> 00:57:28,110
fundamental data data. I'm not a
1429
00:57:28,110 --> 00:57:30,900
fundamental driven trader. But if you
1430
00:57:31,620 --> 00:57:33,870
hold me to the, you know, the aspect of
1431
00:57:34,020 --> 00:57:35,670
do I use fundamentals, I'd have to say
1432
00:57:35,670 --> 00:57:37,740
yes, because it's based on this stuff
1433
00:57:37,740 --> 00:57:39,390
right here. You can't get more
1434
00:57:39,390 --> 00:57:41,040
fundamental than commitment trades,
1435
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:43,110
because they are the ones that provide
1436
00:57:43,110 --> 00:57:45,330
the liquidity that makes the markets
1437
00:57:45,330 --> 00:57:47,790
move like they do. Okay, it's these
1438
00:57:47,850 --> 00:57:51,120
entities on the other side, okay. of the
1439
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:53,400
trading world. They are the ones that
1440
00:57:53,580 --> 00:57:55,410
propel price up and down. It's not the
1441
00:57:55,410 --> 00:57:56,970
retail traders. It's not the it's not
1442
00:57:56,970 --> 00:57:59,850
the large funds. They are if you look at
1443
00:57:59,850 --> 00:58:02,850
this chart. The heavy dark line is the
1444
00:58:02,850 --> 00:58:05,460
commercial traders. And if you look at
1445
00:58:05,460 --> 00:58:08,490
the the medium thickness, nude line,
1446
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:10,080
okay, if you look at that they're
1447
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:12,390
generally diametrically opposed to one
1448
00:58:12,390 --> 00:58:15,030
another when the heavy thick line is
1449
00:58:15,030 --> 00:58:17,250
making a peak, okay, making a real
1450
00:58:17,250 --> 00:58:20,580
higher high, that lesser thickness or
1451
00:58:20,580 --> 00:58:23,640
large speculator line, it's making a
1452
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:26,340
lower low comparable to the commercials.
1453
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:29,430
So there's a diametrically opposed, you
1454
00:58:29,430 --> 00:58:33,840
know, position between the two. When the
1455
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:35,430
commercials change gears and start
1456
00:58:35,430 --> 00:58:37,470
coming down from a high, okay, you'll
1457
00:58:37,470 --> 00:58:39,660
see the funds, okay, or large
1458
00:58:39,660 --> 00:58:41,520
speculators, they'll start to come up,
1459
00:58:41,790 --> 00:58:43,890
okay. And they're always moving back and
1460
00:58:43,890 --> 00:58:45,540
forth until they reach an extreme
1461
00:58:45,540 --> 00:58:49,080
reading on a diametrically opposed
1462
00:58:49,110 --> 00:58:52,590
basis. When you see the diametrically
1463
00:58:52,590 --> 00:58:54,570
opposed scenario where they're really
1464
00:58:54,570 --> 00:58:56,730
really high in the commercials and the
1465
00:58:56,730 --> 00:58:58,020
large speculators are really really
1466
00:58:58,020 --> 00:59:00,600
really low. Okay? When it says jesting
1467
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:02,700
is that the commercials are net long,
1468
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:05,610
heavily net long while the speculators
1469
00:59:05,610 --> 00:59:07,590
on the large scale are fund managers,
1470
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,260
okay, are extremely bearish. Okay.
1471
00:59:10,290 --> 00:59:12,180
Usually when you see that scenario and
1472
00:59:12,180 --> 00:59:15,060
it's a 12 month or four year extreme
1473
00:59:15,060 --> 00:59:16,710
reading, in other words, if the
1474
00:59:16,710 --> 00:59:18,420
commercials have the highest reading a
1475
00:59:18,420 --> 00:59:22,080
net longs in the last 12 to 12 months to
1476
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:24,330
four years. Okay, there's two benchmark
1477
00:59:24,570 --> 00:59:27,060
measurements. I like to look at 112
1478
00:59:27,510 --> 00:59:29,610
month calendar year. Okay, what's the
1479
00:59:29,610 --> 00:59:31,980
highest and lowest that had in terms of
1480
00:59:31,980 --> 00:59:33,930
net long net short positions? When we
1481
00:59:33,930 --> 00:59:36,120
violate the 12 month higher low? That's
1482
00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:37,620
significant. That's usually a trend
1483
00:59:37,620 --> 00:59:39,900
changing environment. If we look at over
1484
00:59:39,900 --> 00:59:42,330
a four year span, okay, they're really
1485
00:59:42,330 --> 00:59:44,790
indicative of a major tide change. And
1486
00:59:45,210 --> 00:59:46,770
it's important that you understand that
1487
00:59:46,770 --> 00:59:47,850
we're going to be looking at the example
1488
00:59:47,850 --> 00:59:49,440
that the Canadian dollar and recent
1489
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:51,210
price action and analysis that I shared
1490
00:59:51,300 --> 00:59:53,430
on the internet and with Chris Laurie's
1491
00:59:53,430 --> 00:59:55,140
group and his pro traders club
1492
00:59:58,949 --> 01:00:00,689
but what is a commitment Traders report.
1493
01:00:00,719 --> 01:00:03,809
Well, it's basically a breakdown of the
1494
01:00:03,809 --> 01:00:06,509
total Long's and total shorts. And then
1495
01:00:06,509 --> 01:00:09,209
by comparing it to you getting a net
1496
01:00:09,209 --> 01:00:11,309
position of net long or net short
1497
01:00:11,309 --> 01:00:14,789
position, okay, what we like to look at
1498
01:00:15,299 --> 01:00:18,539
are the measurements of the long or
1499
01:00:18,539 --> 01:00:20,039
short positions are the commercials
1500
01:00:20,069 --> 01:00:21,839
ideally, okay, because they are, quote
1501
01:00:21,839 --> 01:00:23,819
unquote, the smart money. And then the
1502
01:00:23,819 --> 01:00:27,509
large speculators, okay, those two camps
1503
01:00:27,539 --> 01:00:29,429
are the one where we do not look at the
1504
01:00:29,429 --> 01:00:31,919
small traders, because the average Joe,
1505
01:00:31,919 --> 01:00:33,929
if you look at what's going on there 90%
1506
01:00:33,929 --> 01:00:35,639
of time wrong, they don't they don't
1507
01:00:35,639 --> 01:00:37,379
know what they're doing. But if you look
1508
01:00:37,379 --> 01:00:39,419
at the commercials, and you look at the
1509
01:00:39,419 --> 01:00:42,059
large speculators, okay, those two camps
1510
01:00:42,419 --> 01:00:46,289
are basically taking the other side of
1511
01:00:46,289 --> 01:00:47,999
each trade. Okay, in other words, as
1512
01:00:47,999 --> 01:00:50,099
commercials are putting their positions
1513
01:00:50,099 --> 01:00:51,059
into the marketplace, we're going to
1514
01:00:51,059 --> 01:00:52,199
give a graphically depiction of what
1515
01:00:52,199 --> 01:00:54,569
that looks like. The large speculators
1516
01:00:54,569 --> 01:00:55,859
are usually assuming the other side of
1517
01:00:55,859 --> 01:00:57,239
that trade. And then in trending
1518
01:00:57,239 --> 01:00:59,849
environments. It's profitable for both
1519
01:01:00,959 --> 01:01:02,489
And you'll see that as we move along,
1520
01:01:02,699 --> 01:01:04,559
but we do not consider the small traders
1521
01:01:04,559 --> 01:01:05,969
at all, because they're the less
1522
01:01:05,969 --> 01:01:07,409
informed or will be considered the
1523
01:01:07,409 --> 01:01:14,339
street money. Alright, so, again, we're
1524
01:01:14,339 --> 01:01:17,939
focusing on the large speculators
1525
01:01:17,939 --> 01:01:19,889
because those individuals are going to
1526
01:01:19,889 --> 01:01:21,449
be trend following in nature. And that's
1527
01:01:21,449 --> 01:01:24,839
going to be very important because if we
1528
01:01:24,839 --> 01:01:28,889
are looking for institutional level
1529
01:01:28,919 --> 01:01:31,259
types of trades, okay. And we're looking
1530
01:01:31,259 --> 01:01:33,419
for a directional premise and in our
1531
01:01:33,419 --> 01:01:35,939
trades, it's going to be arrived by
1532
01:01:35,939 --> 01:01:37,499
looking at the relationships between the
1533
01:01:37,499 --> 01:01:39,779
large commercial traders and the large
1534
01:01:39,809 --> 01:01:40,979
speculators because the large
1535
01:01:40,979 --> 01:01:43,259
speculators are trend following. They
1536
01:01:43,259 --> 01:01:45,479
have a really good track record of being
1537
01:01:45,479 --> 01:01:48,209
right during the long trends. Again,
1538
01:01:48,239 --> 01:01:50,879
their pain comes in at the major
1539
01:01:50,879 --> 01:01:53,189
extremes highs and lows, and they don't
1540
01:01:53,189 --> 01:01:54,659
care about picking tops and bombs and
1541
01:01:54,659 --> 01:01:57,029
you shouldn't either, okay, and what
1542
01:01:57,029 --> 01:01:58,469
this is really going to help you focus
1543
01:01:58,469 --> 01:02:01,469
in on is trading During that Lion's
1544
01:02:01,469 --> 01:02:04,289
portion of the big moves, and not trying
1545
01:02:04,289 --> 01:02:06,569
to be so fixated on trying to get the
1546
01:02:06,569 --> 01:02:08,789
high high and the lowest low, we don't
1547
01:02:08,789 --> 01:02:10,469
need that. In fact, I don't even try to
1548
01:02:10,469 --> 01:02:11,939
trade that I used to do that kind of
1549
01:02:11,939 --> 01:02:13,799
stuff. And I got probably lucky two
1550
01:02:13,799 --> 01:02:17,189
times in getting a high and a low in the
1551
01:02:17,189 --> 01:02:18,839
market. But outside of that, you think
1552
01:02:18,839 --> 01:02:20,219
in 20 years, I'd be able to do better
1553
01:02:20,219 --> 01:02:22,379
than that. And it just simply doesn't
1554
01:02:22,379 --> 01:02:25,409
happen. But I can trade really, really
1555
01:02:25,409 --> 01:02:29,879
high near the highs on a bear market.
1556
01:02:30,059 --> 01:02:31,769
Okay, as we have retracements in a bear
1557
01:02:31,769 --> 01:02:34,289
market, I'll sell right near very close,
1558
01:02:34,289 --> 01:02:37,319
if not, sometimes very pips of the highs
1559
01:02:37,589 --> 01:02:39,179
in bear markets, because I understand
1560
01:02:39,179 --> 01:02:41,849
that the dynamic of that, but I'm not
1561
01:02:41,849 --> 01:02:44,219
trying to pick the tops in a bull
1562
01:02:44,219 --> 01:02:45,479
market. I'm not trying to pick the tops,
1563
01:02:45,479 --> 01:02:47,549
I'm looking for some clear indication of
1564
01:02:47,549 --> 01:02:49,289
a reversal before I start going in there
1565
01:02:49,319 --> 01:02:51,899
expecting a breakdown and there's tools
1566
01:02:51,899 --> 01:02:53,759
that we use to help gauge that they're
1567
01:02:53,759 --> 01:02:55,799
not hundred percent of time, accurate,
1568
01:02:55,859 --> 01:02:57,029
okay, but you don't need to understand
1569
01:02:57,029 --> 01:02:58,409
the time accurate, but when we do
1570
01:02:58,409 --> 01:03:00,479
things, see things in line Within
1571
01:03:00,479 --> 01:03:02,699
measurable, sustainable macro trend
1572
01:03:02,759 --> 01:03:04,169
based on these two camps, large
1573
01:03:04,169 --> 01:03:05,639
speculators and commercials, you're
1574
01:03:05,639 --> 01:03:07,079
going to see that's astronomical in
1575
01:03:07,079 --> 01:03:12,509
terms of probability. So the superstars
1576
01:03:12,509 --> 01:03:14,759
that we really want to be focusing on as
1577
01:03:14,819 --> 01:03:16,829
a fundamental insider are the
1578
01:03:16,829 --> 01:03:19,889
commercials, and where their net long
1579
01:03:19,889 --> 01:03:21,569
and net short positions and extremes
1580
01:03:21,569 --> 01:03:23,309
over the last 12 months and four years
1581
01:03:23,339 --> 01:03:25,949
is absolutely crucial. Because if
1582
01:03:25,949 --> 01:03:28,559
they're extremely bullish net long,
1583
01:03:28,919 --> 01:03:30,509
higher than they have been the last 12
1584
01:03:30,509 --> 01:03:32,249
months and really, more importantly, if
1585
01:03:32,249 --> 01:03:34,739
they've done it, most recently, in the
1586
01:03:34,739 --> 01:03:36,749
last four years at the most highest
1587
01:03:36,749 --> 01:03:39,389
they've ever been, that is a major low
1588
01:03:39,389 --> 01:03:42,119
forming and you could really avoid a lot
1589
01:03:42,119 --> 01:03:44,879
of unnecessary losses by being a
1590
01:03:44,879 --> 01:03:47,909
continuation trend follower in a bear
1591
01:03:47,909 --> 01:03:49,139
market because that's what would be
1592
01:03:49,139 --> 01:03:51,389
going on. As they get that net long,
1593
01:03:51,389 --> 01:03:53,639
extreme position. The market will be
1594
01:03:53,639 --> 01:03:55,799
dropping, okay, and because as it's
1595
01:03:55,799 --> 01:03:57,329
dropping, they're hedging. So they're
1596
01:03:57,329 --> 01:03:58,739
going to enter the moves and we'll talk
1597
01:03:58,739 --> 01:04:01,799
a lot more in detail about But they
1598
01:04:01,799 --> 01:04:04,499
price in the low, okay, when they no
1599
01:04:04,499 --> 01:04:07,229
longer are buying, okay, and they're
1600
01:04:07,229 --> 01:04:10,259
going to start distributing that is
1601
01:04:10,259 --> 01:04:12,119
going to facilitate the trend change
1602
01:04:12,119 --> 01:04:13,319
that takes place in the large
1603
01:04:13,319 --> 01:04:15,449
speculators, again, start to unwind
1604
01:04:15,449 --> 01:04:17,459
their shorts and then start to re
1605
01:04:17,459 --> 01:04:18,989
accumulate long positions as the
1606
01:04:18,989 --> 01:04:20,879
commercials now start to sell that and
1607
01:04:20,879 --> 01:04:22,049
provide the liquidity to the large
1608
01:04:22,049 --> 01:04:23,579
speculators. So we really may be
1609
01:04:23,579 --> 01:04:27,119
focusing on the trend, the macro trend
1610
01:04:27,119 --> 01:04:29,279
or the the the ebb and flow of net net
1611
01:04:29,279 --> 01:04:30,659
long and net short positions of the
1612
01:04:30,659 --> 01:04:33,419
commercials engage that with the overall
1613
01:04:33,419 --> 01:04:35,399
price action on a monthly and weekly
1614
01:04:35,399 --> 01:04:36,809
basis. And that's going to give us a
1615
01:04:36,809 --> 01:04:38,339
huge amount of insight in terms of
1616
01:04:38,339 --> 01:04:40,469
prognostication, and future direction.
1617
01:04:45,750 --> 01:04:48,060
Now, what is a 12 month extreme net long
1618
01:04:48,060 --> 01:04:50,370
position and a 12 month extreme net
1619
01:04:50,370 --> 01:04:52,530
short position look like? Well, when we
1620
01:04:52,530 --> 01:04:54,030
look at a Commitment of Traders report,
1621
01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:57,870
graph, okay, there's a zero basis line,
1622
01:04:57,990 --> 01:04:59,220
okay, and that's going to be depicted by
1623
01:04:59,220 --> 01:05:02,340
this heavy, thick line here. And above
1624
01:05:02,340 --> 01:05:06,060
the heavy black line, we have it showing
1625
01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:08,880
a color of green. Okay, not that did
1626
01:05:09,090 --> 01:05:10,950
traders is colored, but I'm trying to
1627
01:05:10,950 --> 01:05:12,390
give you an idea what it looks like
1628
01:05:13,530 --> 01:05:16,650
conceptually above the zero line, okay,
1629
01:05:16,650 --> 01:05:17,940
and we're only looking at commercials as
1630
01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:19,980
relates to co2 data. We're not looking
1631
01:05:19,980 --> 01:05:22,590
at the net long and short of the
1632
01:05:22,590 --> 01:05:24,780
speculators, small speculators or large
1633
01:05:24,780 --> 01:05:26,790
speculators, we're just specifically
1634
01:05:26,790 --> 01:05:29,400
looking at the commercials above that
1635
01:05:29,430 --> 01:05:31,560
black line or zero basis line is would
1636
01:05:31,560 --> 01:05:33,360
be considered net long, okay. In other
1637
01:05:33,360 --> 01:05:36,360
words, they're bullish, they may have a
1638
01:05:36,360 --> 01:05:39,540
large number of short positions on but
1639
01:05:39,810 --> 01:05:43,230
as a net basis, they have more Long's on
1640
01:05:43,230 --> 01:05:45,900
than they do shorts. So again, we have
1641
01:05:45,900 --> 01:05:47,610
to understand that commercials are both
1642
01:05:48,030 --> 01:05:49,950
hedgers and producers. So they are going
1643
01:05:49,950 --> 01:05:52,770
to always be doing a business
1644
01:05:53,670 --> 01:05:55,680
transaction always in the marketplace.
1645
01:05:55,950 --> 01:05:59,220
But if they're extreme levels, net long
1646
01:05:59,250 --> 01:06:00,660
net short They think of because they're
1647
01:06:00,660 --> 01:06:02,220
greedy, just like us, you know, they're
1648
01:06:02,220 --> 01:06:03,960
trying to save money and they're trying
1649
01:06:03,960 --> 01:06:05,610
to make a profit. Okay, otherwise why
1650
01:06:05,610 --> 01:06:06,780
are they in business? They're not in
1651
01:06:06,780 --> 01:06:08,340
business, you know, for the fun of it,
1652
01:06:08,340 --> 01:06:09,390
they want to they want to have a net
1653
01:06:09,390 --> 01:06:12,270
gain and profit. So if their net long,
1654
01:06:12,630 --> 01:06:15,690
Okay, hi Sabin in the last 12 months, we
1655
01:06:15,690 --> 01:06:17,670
will be expecting a major bottom to be
1656
01:06:17,670 --> 01:06:21,180
forming and extreme net short. Okay,
1657
01:06:21,210 --> 01:06:22,320
basically all you're doing is looking
1658
01:06:22,320 --> 01:06:24,000
back over the last 12 months, you're
1659
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:27,030
looking for the lowest reading they've
1660
01:06:27,030 --> 01:06:29,070
had. And you can see in this crude
1661
01:06:29,070 --> 01:06:31,710
example, during the period of July and
1662
01:06:31,710 --> 01:06:33,930
August, they had a net short position.
1663
01:06:34,110 --> 01:06:36,360
Okay, but look what they did in October.
1664
01:06:36,510 --> 01:06:38,430
That's the lowest they've had in terms
1665
01:06:38,430 --> 01:06:40,470
of the last 12 months. They had a net
1666
01:06:40,470 --> 01:06:43,170
short position in May and probably will
1667
01:06:43,170 --> 01:06:44,670
be considered the previous year in
1668
01:06:44,670 --> 01:06:46,530
December. They were net short as well.
1669
01:06:46,770 --> 01:06:49,560
But this is a graphic depiction. Okay,
1670
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:50,910
not based on any real data. I'm just
1671
01:06:50,910 --> 01:06:53,580
showing you the concept that in October,
1672
01:06:53,880 --> 01:06:56,400
this would represent a net short
1673
01:06:56,400 --> 01:06:58,890
position. Extreme reading over the last
1674
01:06:58,890 --> 01:07:00,810
12 months in October. Today would be a
1675
01:07:00,810 --> 01:07:04,290
major high or top to be formed in that
1676
01:07:04,290 --> 01:07:05,340
particular time period.
1677
01:07:10,590 --> 01:07:13,290
Now looking at the trend changes like
1678
01:07:13,290 --> 01:07:19,110
this, it provides you a an X ray view,
1679
01:07:19,320 --> 01:07:21,630
if you will, to anticipate reversal
1680
01:07:21,630 --> 01:07:24,570
patterns, not to bet the farm on them
1681
01:07:24,570 --> 01:07:26,250
thinking okay, it would it would be
1682
01:07:26,250 --> 01:07:29,640
great if I see this data and you know if
1683
01:07:30,270 --> 01:07:32,250
Michael says it's working, it does
1684
01:07:32,250 --> 01:07:34,140
really well and Larry's made millions of
1685
01:07:34,140 --> 01:07:35,280
dollars and Michael's made millions of
1686
01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:36,990
dollars and XYZ traders made millions of
1687
01:07:36,990 --> 01:07:39,390
dollars doing this. That's to say that,
1688
01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:44,040
you know, the Australian dollar is a net
1689
01:07:44,250 --> 01:07:47,010
short position extreme and doesn't mean
1690
01:07:47,010 --> 01:07:48,270
go out there and bet the farm and
1691
01:07:48,270 --> 01:07:49,860
overleveled your account and looking for
1692
01:07:49,860 --> 01:07:52,710
sell scenarios. Okay? Use things that
1693
01:07:52,710 --> 01:07:54,300
you have to look for in price action to
1694
01:07:54,300 --> 01:07:58,650
justify the expectation that reversal is
1695
01:07:58,650 --> 01:08:02,460
underway. Okay, and If we look back at
1696
01:08:02,910 --> 01:08:06,300
risk reward ratios, okay, and managing
1697
01:08:06,330 --> 01:08:10,710
equity and risk if you are a 2% risk
1698
01:08:10,740 --> 01:08:13,080
trader typically answer your maximum
1699
01:08:13,080 --> 01:08:15,600
risk in environments where you're
1700
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:18,120
expecting major turns and reversals of
1701
01:08:18,120 --> 01:08:20,220
long term trends. Those are the times
1702
01:08:20,220 --> 01:08:23,340
when you will be risking less than half
1703
01:08:23,700 --> 01:08:26,580
of your normal trade position size. So
1704
01:08:26,580 --> 01:08:29,010
if you're risking 2% risk about point
1705
01:08:29,010 --> 01:08:31,620
seven 5% or point five, or in other
1706
01:08:31,620 --> 01:08:33,510
words a half of 1% if you're gonna be
1707
01:08:33,510 --> 01:08:35,340
looking for reversal patterns, okay in
1708
01:08:35,340 --> 01:08:36,870
that environment, because there's no
1709
01:08:36,870 --> 01:08:38,220
guarantee that you're going to time it
1710
01:08:38,220 --> 01:08:40,710
perfectly, because you're still inside
1711
01:08:40,740 --> 01:08:44,130
of a macro uptrend or downtrend based on
1712
01:08:44,130 --> 01:08:45,570
the data you're looking at. So if you're
1713
01:08:45,570 --> 01:08:47,400
looking at a net short position, 12
1714
01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:48,930
months extreme by the commercials,
1715
01:08:49,200 --> 01:08:51,540
again, remember they're early, okay? And
1716
01:08:51,540 --> 01:08:52,740
they have the deep pockets, they can
1717
01:08:52,770 --> 01:08:55,500
absorb all that time of sitting in
1718
01:08:56,010 --> 01:08:58,290
losing positions of power draw down
1719
01:08:58,410 --> 01:09:00,480
because think about it. If They grow
1720
01:09:00,480 --> 01:09:02,790
cocoa. They could be sitting in a net
1721
01:09:02,790 --> 01:09:06,180
loss, okay of a hedge, but they have the
1722
01:09:06,180 --> 01:09:08,970
actual cocoa, okay, they actually have
1723
01:09:08,970 --> 01:09:11,490
it, what's worth more a transaction in
1724
01:09:11,490 --> 01:09:13,050
the marketplace or actually having the
1725
01:09:13,050 --> 01:09:15,720
commodity having the commodity because
1726
01:09:15,960 --> 01:09:18,150
that's real business. You can't You
1727
01:09:18,150 --> 01:09:20,610
can't make money. Okay? Telling someone
1728
01:09:20,610 --> 01:09:22,170
here, I'm going to give you 100 shares
1729
01:09:22,170 --> 01:09:24,870
of IBM, IBM, if I was on an island, I
1730
01:09:24,870 --> 01:09:27,030
don't care about 100 shares of IBM, but
1731
01:09:27,030 --> 01:09:29,760
if you have, you know, 5000 bushels of
1732
01:09:29,760 --> 01:09:32,970
wheat or, or, you know, 10,000 bushels
1733
01:09:32,970 --> 01:09:36,180
of, you know, or bales of hay, okay, I'm
1734
01:09:36,180 --> 01:09:39,180
the head of wheat. I'm gonna, I'm going
1735
01:09:39,180 --> 01:09:41,760
to be looking for you know, value in
1736
01:09:41,760 --> 01:09:43,440
that because I could I could use that
1737
01:09:43,650 --> 01:09:45,900
shares only in anything, okay. There's
1738
01:09:45,900 --> 01:09:48,660
intrinsic value associated by the actual
1739
01:09:48,660 --> 01:09:52,860
commodity in hand. So they have the deep
1740
01:09:52,860 --> 01:09:54,600
pockets to absorb all this. So don't go
1741
01:09:54,600 --> 01:09:56,070
in there thinking just simply because
1742
01:09:56,070 --> 01:09:57,990
the co2 data's indicating there's a
1743
01:09:58,020 --> 01:10:00,180
major reversal underway. It may take
1744
01:10:00,180 --> 01:10:02,790
months for that thing to unfold. And
1745
01:10:02,790 --> 01:10:04,410
then finally turn around start going
1746
01:10:04,410 --> 01:10:06,030
lower. Okay, but it gives you the
1747
01:10:06,060 --> 01:10:08,490
indication that hey look, don't be so
1748
01:10:08,490 --> 01:10:09,960
wildly bullish now because everything's
1749
01:10:09,960 --> 01:10:12,390
so against it fundamentally with the
1750
01:10:12,390 --> 01:10:15,540
commercials be very short term nimble
1751
01:10:16,230 --> 01:10:18,060
buyers in that environment as well. If
1752
01:10:18,060 --> 01:10:19,620
you have a net short position extreme,
1753
01:10:20,640 --> 01:10:22,470
I'm very leery of betting a whole lot of
1754
01:10:22,470 --> 01:10:24,060
money on trades that are net long in
1755
01:10:24,060 --> 01:10:25,800
those environments. And again, same
1756
01:10:25,800 --> 01:10:28,050
thing, much in the same vein that we
1757
01:10:28,050 --> 01:10:30,600
talked about risking a whole lot less by
1758
01:10:30,630 --> 01:10:32,610
being a reversal pattern trader looking
1759
01:10:32,610 --> 01:10:35,040
for tops in that environment. Same
1760
01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:36,870
thing, cut your risk on the buys in that
1761
01:10:36,870 --> 01:10:38,670
environment as well and you'll avoid
1762
01:10:38,700 --> 01:10:41,100
getting caught buying the one that
1763
01:10:41,100 --> 01:10:42,270
really breaks down and starts to
1764
01:10:42,270 --> 01:10:43,200
reversal all together.
1765
01:10:48,390 --> 01:10:49,830
So have the commercial straight Well,
1766
01:10:50,250 --> 01:10:51,480
I'm going to give you a this is
1767
01:10:51,480 --> 01:10:52,710
basically the standard commercial
1768
01:10:52,710 --> 01:10:55,860
cumulation phase. And as price Okay,
1769
01:10:55,920 --> 01:10:58,500
depicted by this blue line here is V
1770
01:10:58,530 --> 01:11:00,330
Okay, on the left side of the chart, We
1771
01:11:00,330 --> 01:11:01,440
start coming down that's going to
1772
01:11:01,830 --> 01:11:03,840
basically graphically depict a decline
1773
01:11:03,840 --> 01:11:07,170
in price. Once price comes down to a low
1774
01:11:07,170 --> 01:11:09,540
of some kind find support level okay or
1775
01:11:09,540 --> 01:11:13,140
deemed value Okay, the commercials, okay
1776
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:15,570
are done all their buying and then will
1777
01:11:15,570 --> 01:11:18,810
happen as they start showing a profit
1778
01:11:18,810 --> 01:11:21,270
release portion of the move where all of
1779
01:11:21,270 --> 01:11:25,620
the selling is abated and now the buying
1780
01:11:25,620 --> 01:11:27,480
influence now comes under way and
1781
01:11:27,480 --> 01:11:29,880
they'll be a an appreciating
1782
01:11:30,150 --> 01:11:31,740
appreciation in price as price starts to
1783
01:11:31,740 --> 01:11:34,290
rally up all the accumulated buy
1784
01:11:34,290 --> 01:11:37,020
positions they they start to take it
1785
01:11:37,020 --> 01:11:38,970
okay in other words as as their
1786
01:11:38,970 --> 01:11:40,770
positions that they bought as price was
1787
01:11:40,770 --> 01:11:41,760
dropping lower and lower and lower
1788
01:11:41,760 --> 01:11:43,710
because they're hedging. As price drops,
1789
01:11:43,710 --> 01:11:45,510
they buy more, it's price drops, they
1790
01:11:45,510 --> 01:11:47,040
buy more, they buy more, they buy more
1791
01:11:47,040 --> 01:11:48,930
and eventually when price stops going
1792
01:11:48,930 --> 01:11:50,850
down because they've bought so much need
1793
01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:53,370
there's no more selling, okay, all the
1794
01:11:53,370 --> 01:11:56,700
sellers have been absorbed. Okay. The
1795
01:11:56,730 --> 01:11:59,310
long positions Okay, as price starts to
1796
01:11:59,310 --> 01:12:01,410
move up. They start liquidating that,
1797
01:12:01,890 --> 01:12:03,540
okay? And they offset their long
1798
01:12:03,540 --> 01:12:06,540
positions, okay? So as a whole, not
1799
01:12:06,540 --> 01:12:08,280
individually, okay, but as a whole
1800
01:12:08,280 --> 01:12:11,340
collectively to commercial entities,
1801
01:12:11,640 --> 01:12:13,860
okay? This is what this is what causes
1802
01:12:13,860 --> 01:12:17,130
the shifts and major macro price swings,
1803
01:12:17,250 --> 01:12:19,200
okay? You don't get this information
1804
01:12:19,200 --> 01:12:20,880
from textbook you don't get this stuff
1805
01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:22,410
from, you know, Larry Williams I'm gonna
1806
01:12:22,410 --> 01:12:24,510
talk about this level of, but when you
1807
01:12:24,510 --> 01:12:26,400
understand what's going on as price
1808
01:12:26,430 --> 01:12:28,560
drops, commercials are buying and buying
1809
01:12:28,560 --> 01:12:30,510
and buying and buying buying, eventually
1810
01:12:30,510 --> 01:12:32,550
as price starts to move higher, they
1811
01:12:32,550 --> 01:12:34,920
will liquidate those buy orders, okay,
1812
01:12:34,920 --> 01:12:35,970
and they're not trying to make
1813
01:12:35,970 --> 01:12:37,890
astronomical amounts of money. All they
1814
01:12:37,890 --> 01:12:41,280
did was hedge price, okay. And then
1815
01:12:41,280 --> 01:12:43,560
words, they were locking in a fair price
1816
01:12:43,560 --> 01:12:45,060
that they felt that was fundamentally
1817
01:12:45,060 --> 01:12:47,910
based on their collective understanding
1818
01:12:47,910 --> 01:12:49,920
of what supply and demand curves called
1819
01:12:49,920 --> 01:12:52,650
for that time. And once price gets back
1820
01:12:52,650 --> 01:12:54,210
to those price levels, they can unwind
1821
01:12:54,210 --> 01:12:56,160
that hedge. Okay, and that's all that
1822
01:12:56,190 --> 01:12:57,600
trading is really if you look at the
1823
01:12:57,600 --> 01:12:59,760
macro perspective on any asset class,
1824
01:13:00,000 --> 01:13:02,580
That's what's going on. Okay, and that's
1825
01:13:02,580 --> 01:13:05,640
how the Smart Money operates. So an
1826
01:13:05,640 --> 01:13:09,960
intermediate term price swing looks like
1827
01:13:09,960 --> 01:13:10,710
this overall.
1828
01:13:19,050 --> 01:13:21,930
Now during the accumulation phase now
1829
01:13:21,960 --> 01:13:23,400
obviously everything that we're showing
1830
01:13:23,400 --> 01:13:25,830
here for a market load of you forming
1831
01:13:26,490 --> 01:13:27,990
reverse everything here, it's
1832
01:13:27,990 --> 01:13:30,510
graphically being depicted for a top to
1833
01:13:30,510 --> 01:13:33,120
form or mid term or long term high. They
1834
01:13:33,120 --> 01:13:34,890
would be selling as it goes up and they
1835
01:13:34,890 --> 01:13:36,360
would be buying it back as it starts to
1836
01:13:36,360 --> 01:13:40,170
drop down. But every time that price
1837
01:13:40,170 --> 01:13:42,300
comes to a point at which they would be
1838
01:13:42,300 --> 01:13:45,180
selling, okay, there's going to be a
1839
01:13:45,180 --> 01:13:48,510
retracement and inside that retracement,
1840
01:13:48,780 --> 01:13:50,460
that's where optimal trade entry comes
1841
01:13:50,460 --> 01:13:53,880
in. That's where I have found a sweet
1842
01:13:53,880 --> 01:13:56,790
spot if you will, in trading inside
1843
01:13:56,790 --> 01:13:59,730
these macro price moves. If you look at
1844
01:13:59,730 --> 01:14:02,250
a daily chart. And if you look at a long
1845
01:14:02,250 --> 01:14:04,410
term or short term price low like this
1846
01:14:04,410 --> 01:14:07,530
is graphically depicted depicting, you
1847
01:14:07,530 --> 01:14:10,770
could see clearly that the the minor
1848
01:14:10,770 --> 01:14:13,380
retracements that take place are
1849
01:14:13,410 --> 01:14:15,780
absolutely stellar, buying
1850
01:14:15,780 --> 01:14:18,480
opportunities. But unfortunately, as
1851
01:14:18,480 --> 01:14:19,920
price starts to move up like that
1852
01:14:21,540 --> 01:14:24,630
neophyte traders are in two categories.
1853
01:14:24,630 --> 01:14:26,250
One, they don't think it's going to keep
1854
01:14:26,250 --> 01:14:27,420
going up, it's probably going to go
1855
01:14:27,420 --> 01:14:29,550
lower now, because everything's, you
1856
01:14:29,550 --> 01:14:32,310
know, trying to find the top or trying
1857
01:14:32,310 --> 01:14:35,190
to find the bottom. And the other camp
1858
01:14:35,220 --> 01:14:38,580
is it's already moved to high and I'm
1859
01:14:38,580 --> 01:14:40,290
afraid that I don't, I don't want to buy
1860
01:14:40,320 --> 01:14:43,410
right now. So those two camps are the
1861
01:14:43,410 --> 01:14:44,820
reason why they neophyte traders don't
1862
01:14:44,820 --> 01:14:46,860
make money. When the moves are really
1863
01:14:46,890 --> 01:14:48,360
moving in the right direction. They
1864
01:14:48,360 --> 01:14:51,420
don't trust the directional premise. The
1865
01:14:51,420 --> 01:14:54,300
basis to finding and consistently
1866
01:14:54,300 --> 01:14:56,400
trading with a directional premise is to
1867
01:14:56,400 --> 01:14:59,040
understand the macro trends. Okay, the
1868
01:14:59,040 --> 01:15:01,350
macro price, Link on a monthly, weekly
1869
01:15:01,350 --> 01:15:03,060
and daily basis using Commitment of
1870
01:15:03,060 --> 01:15:05,220
Traders, understanding price action
1871
01:15:05,250 --> 01:15:06,810
market structure as we discussed in
1872
01:15:06,810 --> 01:15:08,550
previous video in this set,
1873
01:15:09,150 --> 01:15:12,780
understanding how price moves in long
1874
01:15:12,780 --> 01:15:14,460
term intermediate term and short term
1875
01:15:14,640 --> 01:15:17,160
price swings, understanding where you're
1876
01:15:17,160 --> 01:15:20,640
at in that market structure where the
1877
01:15:20,640 --> 01:15:24,270
probable direction may take us from
1878
01:15:24,420 --> 01:15:27,030
current price action, that is going to
1879
01:15:27,030 --> 01:15:28,710
be paramount for you to have your
1880
01:15:28,710 --> 01:15:32,070
directional premise in mind. So we're
1881
01:15:32,070 --> 01:15:34,170
going to assume for a moment that as
1882
01:15:34,170 --> 01:15:37,680
this price action model, or example here
1883
01:15:37,710 --> 01:15:40,920
depicts as price was dropping lower and
1884
01:15:41,670 --> 01:15:45,210
they bought for large scale blocks, okay
1885
01:15:45,210 --> 01:15:47,400
as price dropped down, and obviously I
1886
01:15:47,400 --> 01:15:48,630
don't have the insight to tell you how
1887
01:15:48,630 --> 01:15:51,060
many blocks of Long's they bought or
1888
01:15:51,060 --> 01:15:52,470
whatever that asset class would be.
1889
01:15:52,860 --> 01:15:54,030
Okay, but I'm just giving you a graphic
1890
01:15:54,030 --> 01:15:55,410
depiction of they were buying as it was
1891
01:15:55,410 --> 01:15:58,620
going lower, as they were buying, as it
1892
01:15:58,620 --> 01:16:01,830
was going lower than Net long position
1893
01:16:01,890 --> 01:16:04,410
on the commercials would be net, you
1894
01:16:04,410 --> 01:16:06,630
know, it would be above the baseline, or
1895
01:16:06,960 --> 01:16:10,410
if it's below the zero line. Okay, now
1896
01:16:10,410 --> 01:16:11,880
we're showing a net short position, it
1897
01:16:11,880 --> 01:16:14,700
would be dramatically being reduced, it
1898
01:16:14,700 --> 01:16:17,040
still may not be net long basis zero
1899
01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:19,470
basis line on your net, net zero
1900
01:16:19,470 --> 01:16:21,690
position. When your administrators graph
1901
01:16:21,720 --> 01:16:23,340
which we'll look, I'll show you real
1902
01:16:23,340 --> 01:16:24,540
examples of what that looks like. So if
1903
01:16:24,540 --> 01:16:26,250
you kind of like scratch your head
1904
01:16:26,250 --> 01:16:27,630
saying, you know, it still doesn't make
1905
01:16:27,630 --> 01:16:29,040
any sense, trust me, it will in a few
1906
01:16:29,040 --> 01:16:33,780
moments. But the co2 data will indicate
1907
01:16:34,140 --> 01:16:36,750
what we're showing here. Okay, in co2,
1908
01:16:37,110 --> 01:16:38,730
and other words, the commercials will be
1909
01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:42,150
dramatically lessening shorts or
1910
01:16:42,420 --> 01:16:46,050
increasing to a net long position in a
1911
01:16:46,050 --> 01:16:51,240
co2 graph or chart. And once the price
1912
01:16:51,720 --> 01:16:53,280
finds the support level, and there's an
1913
01:16:53,280 --> 01:16:55,770
indication that it has a willingness to
1914
01:16:55,770 --> 01:16:58,170
bounce and trade higher, once that takes
1915
01:16:58,170 --> 01:16:59,640
place, and we have a market structure,
1916
01:16:59,640 --> 01:17:02,460
shift bullish. Okay as defined in
1917
01:17:02,460 --> 01:17:05,550
previous videos, once we have that we
1918
01:17:05,550 --> 01:17:08,550
would be looking for support to be
1919
01:17:08,550 --> 01:17:10,800
respected and resistance to be violated
1920
01:17:10,800 --> 01:17:13,080
and broken to the upside. That's how we
1921
01:17:13,080 --> 01:17:14,850
work within market structure. And then
1922
01:17:14,850 --> 01:17:17,070
every time we see a retracement, we
1923
01:17:17,070 --> 01:17:20,280
don't anticipate the sky falling, okay.
1924
01:17:20,430 --> 01:17:22,650
And everything going to hell, we were
1925
01:17:22,650 --> 01:17:25,290
looking for new buying opportunities and
1926
01:17:25,290 --> 01:17:26,910
looking for it to trade back into a
1927
01:17:26,910 --> 01:17:28,950
previous existing order block bullish
1928
01:17:28,950 --> 01:17:32,670
Lee finding a an old resistance now
1929
01:17:32,670 --> 01:17:33,600
turning support
1930
01:17:34,980 --> 01:17:38,310
maintaining higher lows and higher
1931
01:17:38,310 --> 01:17:41,880
highs. And then on a daily chart, if we
1932
01:17:41,880 --> 01:17:44,670
start seeing, you know, institutional
1933
01:17:45,450 --> 01:17:48,510
order flow that's measured with a
1934
01:17:48,510 --> 01:17:49,830
coupling of two moving averages we're
1935
01:17:49,830 --> 01:17:51,630
going to talk about and then in that
1936
01:17:51,630 --> 01:17:53,700
case, it would be the 18 and 40
1937
01:17:53,700 --> 01:17:55,470
exponential moving averages. Again,
1938
01:17:55,470 --> 01:17:57,630
that's the 18 period exponential moving
1939
01:17:57,630 --> 01:17:59,700
average and the 40 period Exponential
1940
01:17:59,700 --> 01:18:02,280
Moving on On a daily chart, when the 18
1941
01:18:02,280 --> 01:18:05,160
crosses the 40, once it crosses that we
1942
01:18:05,160 --> 01:18:06,960
don't care about the crossing itself, we
1943
01:18:06,960 --> 01:18:08,520
want to see it cross and then start
1944
01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:10,260
opening up when it opens up, that's
1945
01:18:10,260 --> 01:18:13,290
called stacking. When that happens, that
1946
01:18:13,290 --> 01:18:16,710
is measuring a very strong momentum.
1947
01:18:17,070 --> 01:18:19,650
Okay, and the way funds trade is
1948
01:18:19,650 --> 01:18:22,800
momentum based. And one of the largest
1949
01:18:23,370 --> 01:18:26,880
you followed approaches to momentum
1950
01:18:26,880 --> 01:18:29,490
trading is the 18 and 40 institutional
1951
01:18:29,850 --> 01:18:32,280
moving averages. And simply looking at
1952
01:18:32,280 --> 01:18:34,560
the, the opening of those averages, okay
1953
01:18:34,560 --> 01:18:36,630
will give you the insight you need to
1954
01:18:36,630 --> 01:18:39,060
follow the direction of both those
1955
01:18:39,060 --> 01:18:41,460
averages once they cross an 18 is above
1956
01:18:41,460 --> 01:18:43,860
the 40 and they start widening, okay,
1957
01:18:43,860 --> 01:18:45,060
and you're still pointing up the
1958
01:18:45,060 --> 01:18:46,350
diagonal of the direction of where the
1959
01:18:46,350 --> 01:18:48,480
train is pointing up. And they're
1960
01:18:48,480 --> 01:18:51,000
opening wider 18th widening above the
1961
01:18:51,000 --> 01:18:54,150
40. That's institutional sponsorship
1962
01:18:54,210 --> 01:18:56,430
graphically depicted in moving averages.
1963
01:18:56,700 --> 01:18:58,560
That gives you the directional premise
1964
01:18:58,560 --> 01:19:01,680
to focus in on Specifically, waiting for
1965
01:19:01,680 --> 01:19:04,230
retracement back down to a known support
1966
01:19:04,230 --> 01:19:06,570
level or resistance broken then turn
1967
01:19:06,960 --> 01:19:09,510
support going into a previous existing
1968
01:19:09,540 --> 01:19:12,300
order block that's bullish. Okay. And if
1969
01:19:12,300 --> 01:19:13,830
you don't know what an order block is,
1970
01:19:13,860 --> 01:19:17,340
look at my trading, position trading
1971
01:19:17,340 --> 01:19:19,650
volumes One, two and three, it goes into
1972
01:19:19,650 --> 01:19:21,450
great details with an order block is an
1973
01:19:21,450 --> 01:19:23,940
institutional order block. And it's
1974
01:19:23,940 --> 01:19:25,170
that's simply what you're all you're
1975
01:19:25,170 --> 01:19:26,340
going to be doing, you're going to be
1976
01:19:26,340 --> 01:19:28,530
looking for those scenarios that pan out
1977
01:19:28,710 --> 01:19:32,190
for your, your buying scenarios. Okay,
1978
01:19:32,520 --> 01:19:33,810
and it doesn't matter if you're a short
1979
01:19:33,810 --> 01:19:35,310
term trader, or if you're a day trader
1980
01:19:35,310 --> 01:19:37,350
or if you're a position trader, every
1981
01:19:37,350 --> 01:19:40,950
one of those asset, you know, approaches
1982
01:19:40,950 --> 01:19:44,220
to trading. Those will be complemented
1983
01:19:44,340 --> 01:19:46,290
very well with this approach and using
1984
01:19:46,290 --> 01:19:47,880
institutional order flow using
1985
01:19:48,180 --> 01:19:50,460
commitment traders fundamentally, price
1986
01:19:50,460 --> 01:19:54,450
action drive drive drivers behind why
1987
01:19:54,450 --> 01:19:56,010
price should be expected to go higher,
1988
01:19:56,190 --> 01:19:58,710
and you'll have everything that you need
1989
01:19:59,280 --> 01:20:01,830
to build The directional premise model
1990
01:20:02,100 --> 01:20:05,040
that you're looking for. Now the problem
1991
01:20:05,040 --> 01:20:06,660
is, is there's going to be times when
1992
01:20:06,660 --> 01:20:09,840
the averages on 1840 won't be crossed
1993
01:20:09,840 --> 01:20:12,270
over, and price will be going up, and
1994
01:20:12,270 --> 01:20:13,530
you're going to be wanting to send me an
1995
01:20:13,530 --> 01:20:15,240
email saying, it's not working.
1996
01:20:15,840 --> 01:20:17,640
Something's not right. I missed that
1997
01:20:17,640 --> 01:20:19,620
move. Guess what, there's a lot of moves
1998
01:20:19,620 --> 01:20:21,300
I miss, and you're gonna miss a lot of
1999
01:20:21,300 --> 01:20:23,040
moves. But you don't need every move.
2000
01:20:23,220 --> 01:20:26,280
Okay? If you looked at my net earnings,
2001
01:20:26,430 --> 01:20:28,380
based on what I do for over a whole
2002
01:20:28,380 --> 01:20:30,690
year, you would be like, you know, all
2003
01:20:30,690 --> 01:20:32,310
this stuff and you trade that little.
2004
01:20:32,790 --> 01:20:35,220
Yeah, but guess what, I took you to the
2005
01:20:35,220 --> 01:20:37,950
bottom line with that whole year, you'd
2006
01:20:37,950 --> 01:20:39,780
be like, wow, this is a whole lot of
2007
01:20:40,200 --> 01:20:43,890
nothing in terms of effort, but a huge
2008
01:20:43,890 --> 01:20:47,010
reward in terms of the return. And
2009
01:20:47,070 --> 01:20:48,720
that's, that's what trading is. That's
2010
01:20:48,720 --> 01:20:50,130
what professional trading is. I don't
2011
01:20:50,130 --> 01:20:51,510
want to be a whole lot of time in front
2012
01:20:51,510 --> 01:20:52,830
of charts. I did that you don't you
2013
01:20:52,830 --> 01:20:54,630
should trust me if you want to do that.
2014
01:20:54,690 --> 01:20:56,160
You won't want to do when you do it.
2015
01:20:56,280 --> 01:20:58,230
Okay. You'll you'll like living life and
2016
01:20:58,230 --> 01:20:59,430
doing the things with your family.
2017
01:21:05,069 --> 01:21:07,889
Now here is the key. This is the million
2018
01:21:07,889 --> 01:21:11,309
dollar secret, if you will, okay. When
2019
01:21:11,309 --> 01:21:13,439
you're looking at the CO t graph or the
2020
01:21:13,739 --> 01:21:15,479
the commitment raters report chart
2021
01:21:17,069 --> 01:21:19,349
basically it's plotting the net long net
2022
01:21:19,349 --> 01:21:22,349
short positions of both the all three
2023
01:21:22,349 --> 01:21:24,389
camps, the speculators don't small level
2024
01:21:24,449 --> 01:21:25,949
to large speculators or fund managers
2025
01:21:25,949 --> 01:21:28,499
and in the commercials, and every week,
2026
01:21:28,499 --> 01:21:30,599
it's updated. Okay. What's you're
2027
01:21:30,599 --> 01:21:35,159
looking for? Is the trend of the
2028
01:21:35,159 --> 01:21:37,589
commercials. What are they doing? Okay.
2029
01:21:38,759 --> 01:21:40,769
Francis, looking at the number one part
2030
01:21:40,979 --> 01:21:43,619
of this crude depiction, I admit it's
2031
01:21:43,619 --> 01:21:44,849
very crude, but it's still going to,
2032
01:21:45,239 --> 01:21:48,959
it's going to accomplish the means. This
2033
01:21:48,989 --> 01:21:50,609
number one point is going to represent a
2034
01:21:50,609 --> 01:21:52,439
12 month extreme net long position by
2035
01:21:52,439 --> 01:21:54,449
the commercials, okay. And what you
2036
01:21:54,449 --> 01:21:55,919
should be doing is you should be reduced
2037
01:21:55,949 --> 01:21:57,629
reducing your risk on all of your new
2038
01:21:57,629 --> 01:21:59,879
shorts. Okay, or existing shorts.
2039
01:22:00,599 --> 01:22:03,509
anticipate a likelihood to find buying
2040
01:22:03,509 --> 01:22:06,719
opportunities. The number two point in
2041
01:22:06,719 --> 01:22:08,129
this graphic depiction, you can see the
2042
01:22:08,129 --> 01:22:09,599
commercials move down to a net short
2043
01:22:09,599 --> 01:22:12,419
position. This net short commercial
2044
01:22:12,419 --> 01:22:15,299
position, okay? Even though it's very,
2045
01:22:15,299 --> 01:22:18,119
very small, okay, you can look for short
2046
01:22:18,119 --> 01:22:20,399
to immediate term downside corrections.
2047
01:22:20,669 --> 01:22:23,639
Okay. But overall look at we have we
2048
01:22:23,639 --> 01:22:26,909
have a very very large pre existing net
2049
01:22:26,909 --> 01:22:29,399
long positions about the commercials
2050
01:22:29,399 --> 01:22:31,559
that number one point. So really even
2051
01:22:31,559 --> 01:22:34,049
though price may correct and trade lower
2052
01:22:34,229 --> 01:22:36,269
during that period of time that in May
2053
01:22:36,299 --> 01:22:38,459
where we see a net short position by the
2054
01:22:38,459 --> 01:22:41,129
commercials that may be as small as a
2055
01:22:41,129 --> 01:22:44,489
minor correction, okay, for the trend to
2056
01:22:44,489 --> 01:22:46,499
resume during the number three point
2057
01:22:46,619 --> 01:22:48,989
Okay, number three is a new net long
2058
01:22:48,989 --> 01:22:50,699
position. Now notice it's nowhere near
2059
01:22:50,699 --> 01:22:53,099
the level net long that 2.1 reference
2060
01:22:53,099 --> 01:22:56,099
was You see that? It doesn't matter.
2061
01:22:56,459 --> 01:22:58,169
Because you've established a trend
2062
01:22:58,169 --> 01:22:59,999
change likely if you see a conversion
2063
01:22:59,999 --> 01:23:02,639
And price action if point one in that
2064
01:23:02,639 --> 01:23:04,169
period of time between February March
2065
01:23:04,169 --> 01:23:06,989
and early April, if we have a bottom
2066
01:23:06,989 --> 01:23:10,649
form in say the Canadian dollar, if we
2067
01:23:10,649 --> 01:23:14,669
see that form, okay, price will rally,
2068
01:23:15,209 --> 01:23:17,609
okay and break market structure to the
2069
01:23:17,609 --> 01:23:20,549
upside, and then it will retrace during
2070
01:23:20,549 --> 01:23:23,009
the month of May during that natural
2071
01:23:23,009 --> 01:23:24,719
position, okay, because they're going to
2072
01:23:24,719 --> 01:23:28,169
sell into that, that rally, then that
2073
01:23:28,169 --> 01:23:29,579
rally that initial rally there and sell
2074
01:23:29,579 --> 01:23:31,319
into that remember we just talked about
2075
01:23:31,319 --> 01:23:33,179
their unwinding that hedge they put on
2076
01:23:33,179 --> 01:23:34,859
place it during the whole period of
2077
01:23:34,859 --> 01:23:38,369
point one during that retracing if point
2078
01:23:38,369 --> 01:23:41,459
two don't think that you're in a bear
2079
01:23:41,459 --> 01:23:44,399
market stay focused on looking for net
2080
01:23:44,399 --> 01:23:46,439
long positions, okay for your own
2081
01:23:46,439 --> 01:23:48,689
trading. So in the point three, okay.
2082
01:23:49,139 --> 01:23:50,969
After that 12 months net long position,
2083
01:23:50,999 --> 01:23:53,249
you want to be looking for swings and
2084
01:23:53,249 --> 01:23:57,719
position trades long. Your macro trend
2085
01:23:57,719 --> 01:23:59,549
traders and long term traders you're
2086
01:23:59,549 --> 01:24:01,499
looking for big moves, that's when
2087
01:24:01,919 --> 01:24:03,209
that's when it happens when they move
2088
01:24:03,209 --> 01:24:05,399
back to net long after a big huge net
2089
01:24:05,399 --> 01:24:07,769
long position. Okay, when they move to a
2090
01:24:07,769 --> 01:24:11,399
net short, back up to a net long, that's
2091
01:24:11,399 --> 01:24:12,569
when the best buying opportunities for
2092
01:24:12,569 --> 01:24:16,469
position trading takes place. If you're
2093
01:24:16,469 --> 01:24:18,269
a swing trader, it's an astronomical
2094
01:24:18,269 --> 01:24:21,119
place to take entries for being a buyer.
2095
01:24:22,349 --> 01:24:24,329
point four again they swing back down to
2096
01:24:24,329 --> 01:24:27,149
a net short position during this time,
2097
01:24:27,299 --> 01:24:29,399
okay, you can still take short to mid
2098
01:24:29,399 --> 01:24:32,069
term downside shorts because it's gonna
2099
01:24:32,069 --> 01:24:33,779
basically gonna be correcting again,
2100
01:24:34,049 --> 01:24:36,419
it's gonna be a retracement in an up
2101
01:24:36,419 --> 01:24:39,119
move. Then at point five we have another
2102
01:24:39,119 --> 01:24:40,589
net short I mean sorry, net long
2103
01:24:40,589 --> 01:24:42,389
position. Okay, the commercials went
2104
01:24:42,389 --> 01:24:44,699
back above that zero basis line. Notice
2105
01:24:44,699 --> 01:24:46,229
they are nowhere near the level they
2106
01:24:46,229 --> 01:24:48,119
were before net long but it does not
2107
01:24:48,119 --> 01:24:50,849
matter. This is like an oversold
2108
01:24:50,849 --> 01:24:52,469
condition for you. Okay, you wouldn't be
2109
01:24:52,469 --> 01:24:54,419
looking at that same Wow. This is now
2110
01:24:54,419 --> 01:24:56,399
another buying opportunity because they
2111
01:24:56,399 --> 01:24:58,619
have now bought some more prices dip
2112
01:24:58,619 --> 01:25:01,529
down and retraced So now what's going to
2113
01:25:01,529 --> 01:25:03,419
take place is you're going to, again,
2114
01:25:03,419 --> 01:25:04,919
look for short to intermediate term
2115
01:25:05,009 --> 01:25:06,389
buying opportunities because you're
2116
01:25:06,389 --> 01:25:09,329
trading with the co2 trend. Okay? And at
2117
01:25:09,329 --> 01:25:11,219
point six, we see price come down and
2118
01:25:11,219 --> 01:25:14,249
they make a huge net short position, the
2119
01:25:14,249 --> 01:25:15,839
largest they've made in the last 12
2120
01:25:15,839 --> 01:25:18,029
months, was that going to indicate the
2121
01:25:18,029 --> 01:25:20,609
likelihood of a high, so you want to be
2122
01:25:20,609 --> 01:25:23,249
reducing the risk on your long positions
2123
01:25:23,309 --> 01:25:26,069
and many times filtering out new, new
2124
01:25:26,069 --> 01:25:28,349
buying opportunities and start looking
2125
01:25:28,349 --> 01:25:30,179
for selling opportunities. Okay, but
2126
01:25:30,179 --> 01:25:33,059
again, don't bet very large in terms of
2127
01:25:33,059 --> 01:25:36,839
risk on those large net long positions
2128
01:25:36,839 --> 01:25:38,009
in net short positions. You don't want
2129
01:25:38,009 --> 01:25:40,589
to do that. It's the initial retracement
2130
01:25:40,589 --> 01:25:42,599
later on after the extreme in price
2131
01:25:42,599 --> 01:25:44,519
supports the notion that it's a major
2132
01:25:44,519 --> 01:25:46,439
reversal is taking place. That's when
2133
01:25:46,439 --> 01:25:47,789
you want to put your maximum leverage on
2134
01:25:47,819 --> 01:25:51,239
if at all. Now obviously, the secret to
2135
01:25:51,269 --> 01:25:52,619
commitment traders is to trade with the
2136
01:25:52,619 --> 01:25:54,569
trend of commercial traders. Okay,
2137
01:25:54,569 --> 01:25:56,849
because they set in motion all of the
2138
01:25:56,849 --> 01:25:58,379
intermediate term and long term highs
2139
01:25:58,379 --> 01:26:00,509
and lows in the marketplace and you Find
2140
01:26:00,509 --> 01:26:02,429
them by ferreting out the 12 month
2141
01:26:02,429 --> 01:26:04,619
extremes and the net positions short and
2142
01:26:04,619 --> 01:26:06,329
long by the commercials. So,
2143
01:26:06,810 --> 01:26:09,000
if you look at this as a macro
2144
01:26:09,000 --> 01:26:10,860
understanding of fundamentals, okay, it
2145
01:26:10,860 --> 01:26:13,020
gives you all the things that you want
2146
01:26:13,020 --> 01:26:14,730
to look for in terms of studying
2147
01:26:14,760 --> 01:26:16,800
fundamental data reports, bank reports,
2148
01:26:16,800 --> 01:26:18,750
all that stuff, all that ferreted out
2149
01:26:18,750 --> 01:26:20,430
for you. And if you coupled this
2150
01:26:20,430 --> 01:26:21,750
information with support resistance,
2151
01:26:21,750 --> 01:26:23,940
astronomical results, or result as a
2152
01:26:23,940 --> 01:26:28,890
result for you for doing such. So now,
2153
01:26:28,890 --> 01:26:30,330
what does it look like graphically,
2154
01:26:30,360 --> 01:26:32,610
okay, and well, what I'm showing you
2155
01:26:32,610 --> 01:26:35,490
here is a chart from price charts calm
2156
01:26:35,490 --> 01:26:38,730
now, before I say anything further, this
2157
01:26:38,760 --> 01:26:40,950
is a paid service, you will have to pay
2158
01:26:40,950 --> 01:26:43,410
for this. Okay? To get this particular
2159
01:26:43,410 --> 01:26:45,810
chart, you don't have to have this
2160
01:26:45,810 --> 01:26:47,970
chart. I just simply like this chart,
2161
01:26:48,300 --> 01:26:51,090
when you see my videos, I don't always
2162
01:26:51,090 --> 01:26:53,340
share this format, okay, because I
2163
01:26:53,340 --> 01:26:55,560
really print these charts out and really
2164
01:26:55,560 --> 01:26:57,540
mark them up with pen. And yes, I still
2165
01:26:57,540 --> 01:26:59,730
do that archaic way of doing even with
2166
01:26:59,850 --> 01:27:01,740
him. Having computers out the ying yang
2167
01:27:01,740 --> 01:27:03,840
here, I still like to mark up paper
2168
01:27:03,840 --> 01:27:06,150
charts as how I started. I'm old school.
2169
01:27:06,150 --> 01:27:08,700
So you know, dinosaurs 20 years ago, we
2170
01:27:08,700 --> 01:27:10,650
didn't have the wonderful things we have
2171
01:27:10,650 --> 01:27:12,960
now it's, you know, you high end
2172
01:27:12,960 --> 01:27:15,480
technical traders. But if you don't want
2173
01:27:15,480 --> 01:27:17,340
to use price charts calm and pay the
2174
01:27:17,340 --> 01:27:18,870
money for the absolutely gorgeous
2175
01:27:18,870 --> 01:27:22,020
charts, you can go on their website and
2176
01:27:22,020 --> 01:27:25,320
try their two week free demo. Okay, and
2177
01:27:25,320 --> 01:27:27,270
he's created an email address because
2178
01:27:27,270 --> 01:27:28,860
they're gonna spam you. Okay, I'm
2179
01:27:28,860 --> 01:27:30,000
telling you up front, they're gonna spam
2180
01:27:30,000 --> 01:27:32,310
you and you can try for two weeks for
2181
01:27:32,310 --> 01:27:34,470
free and never use the email address
2182
01:27:34,470 --> 01:27:37,230
again and you can keep sending all their
2183
01:27:37,800 --> 01:27:39,420
publications trying to get you to
2184
01:27:39,420 --> 01:27:41,430
subscribe to an email address you never
2185
01:27:41,430 --> 01:27:44,130
touch again. Or you can go to bar chart
2186
01:27:44,160 --> 01:27:46,500
calm and pull up the chart like we're
2187
01:27:46,500 --> 01:27:48,060
going to show later on in this video how
2188
01:27:48,060 --> 01:27:49,650
you can do it for free. And I know a lot
2189
01:27:49,650 --> 01:27:51,030
of you're saying Yay, thank you Mike for
2190
01:27:51,030 --> 01:27:53,790
free. But you know, sometimes it's nice
2191
01:27:53,790 --> 01:27:55,020
to pay a little bit of money. It's not a
2192
01:27:55,020 --> 01:27:57,030
lot of money you would be getting as an
2193
01:27:57,030 --> 01:27:59,700
expense to get this but it to me if you
2194
01:27:59,700 --> 01:28:01,110
do like To print them out, or if you'd
2195
01:28:01,110 --> 01:28:02,190
like to have electronic doesn't make a
2196
01:28:02,190 --> 01:28:04,710
difference. I just like to have them in
2197
01:28:04,710 --> 01:28:06,570
hardcopy because I draw content notes
2198
01:28:06,570 --> 01:28:09,180
all over them. But if you look down here
2199
01:28:09,210 --> 01:28:11,580
in we have the net short position and
2200
01:28:11,580 --> 01:28:14,820
net long position and the zero basis
2201
01:28:14,820 --> 01:28:17,880
line. And I'm going to show you that
2202
01:28:17,880 --> 01:28:19,950
right here, this is the zero line file
2203
01:28:19,950 --> 01:28:22,590
that across the chart, okay. See that
2204
01:28:22,590 --> 01:28:26,220
right here? What this is indicating is
2205
01:28:26,220 --> 01:28:28,770
the zero basis line. Anything above zero
2206
01:28:28,770 --> 01:28:30,810
is net long. Anything below is net
2207
01:28:30,810 --> 01:28:33,600
short. The commercials are the heaviest
2208
01:28:33,630 --> 01:28:36,300
black line. That's this line right here.
2209
01:28:36,540 --> 01:28:38,250
Okay. And you see what they have here,
2210
01:28:38,280 --> 01:28:41,040
large net long position, largest they
2211
01:28:41,040 --> 01:28:43,560
had. And look down here we have the
2212
01:28:43,560 --> 01:28:45,900
commercials diametrically opposed to the
2213
01:28:45,900 --> 01:28:47,580
large speculators. They're the funds.
2214
01:28:47,700 --> 01:28:50,190
Okay. Now, notice what's going on here.
2215
01:28:51,690 --> 01:28:54,780
As price had dropped in the Euro, this
2216
01:28:54,780 --> 01:28:58,290
long big trend going lower from 150 down
2217
01:28:58,290 --> 01:29:02,100
to 120. That's three Thousand pips. Okay
2218
01:29:02,190 --> 01:29:06,300
3000 pips of a down move. Okay. The
2219
01:29:06,300 --> 01:29:08,640
large speculators were pretty much with
2220
01:29:08,640 --> 01:29:10,950
that whole trend all the way to the very
2221
01:29:10,950 --> 01:29:13,710
end. The commercials were buying the
2222
01:29:13,710 --> 01:29:16,980
whole way up. Okay. Sorry, all the way
2223
01:29:16,980 --> 01:29:19,920
down they were buying large numbers of
2224
01:29:19,950 --> 01:29:24,000
net long position on the euro. Finally,
2225
01:29:24,300 --> 01:29:25,830
when the Euro came down to 120
2226
01:29:27,120 --> 01:29:31,170
the diametrically opposed tug of war.
2227
01:29:31,260 --> 01:29:34,230
Okay, the tide changed, price changed
2228
01:29:34,320 --> 01:29:36,120
and moved higher started trading higher.
2229
01:29:36,690 --> 01:29:39,060
And then they got in sync with the now
2230
01:29:39,090 --> 01:29:41,880
new bull move. Okay, as the commercials
2231
01:29:41,880 --> 01:29:43,920
not started the liquidator long
2232
01:29:43,920 --> 01:29:45,900
positions, who was assuming the other
2233
01:29:45,900 --> 01:29:47,160
side of the long positions, they're
2234
01:29:47,160 --> 01:29:50,040
selling the funds. Okay, you see how
2235
01:29:50,040 --> 01:29:51,480
there's an entertains relationship
2236
01:29:51,480 --> 01:29:53,550
between the two. As the commercials move
2237
01:29:53,550 --> 01:29:56,160
higher, the fun start moving lower. This
2238
01:29:56,160 --> 01:29:58,380
is one of the absolutely wonderful
2239
01:29:59,070 --> 01:30:01,110
secrets. If you We'll to how the
2240
01:30:01,110 --> 01:30:03,990
dynamics of the marketplace work. And if
2241
01:30:03,990 --> 01:30:05,850
you understand the relationship between
2242
01:30:05,850 --> 01:30:09,030
these two, okay, it's a dance. Okay?
2243
01:30:09,030 --> 01:30:11,130
It's a beautiful dance between two
2244
01:30:11,130 --> 01:30:12,720
entities in the marketplace to
2245
01:30:12,720 --> 01:30:15,300
absolutely give you every insight that
2246
01:30:15,300 --> 01:30:17,550
you would absolutely love to know. But
2247
01:30:17,550 --> 01:30:18,930
you probably didn't even know you needed
2248
01:30:18,930 --> 01:30:20,970
to need this have had this information.
2249
01:30:21,180 --> 01:30:22,500
I mean, think about it. If you didn't
2250
01:30:22,500 --> 01:30:25,620
see this before, you probably never many
2251
01:30:25,620 --> 01:30:26,550
of you probably never even knew this
2252
01:30:26,550 --> 01:30:28,770
existed, let alone Let it be free
2253
01:30:28,770 --> 01:30:30,840
information. Okay. Because if if the
2254
01:30:30,840 --> 01:30:32,940
information is free, they have to buy
2255
01:30:32,970 --> 01:30:34,080
it. This is one thing that government
2256
01:30:34,080 --> 01:30:37,080
did, right? They forced large traders to
2257
01:30:37,080 --> 01:30:40,050
tell us whether they're net long or net
2258
01:30:40,050 --> 01:30:41,730
short now imagine if they could do that
2259
01:30:42,030 --> 01:30:45,060
for stocks. I mean, that'd be wonderful
2260
01:30:45,090 --> 01:30:46,560
for a once we have no problem making
2261
01:30:46,560 --> 01:30:49,230
money then Okay. So now looking at this
2262
01:30:49,230 --> 01:30:51,210
example, okay, here we have the like we
2263
01:30:51,210 --> 01:30:52,740
were talking about earlier, we have a
2264
01:30:52,740 --> 01:30:55,080
net long position by the commercials,
2265
01:30:55,470 --> 01:30:58,560
okay, net long, hugely net long. Okay,
2266
01:30:58,560 --> 01:31:00,990
and then eventually price starts to move
2267
01:31:00,990 --> 01:31:03,990
higher, then they swing down below net
2268
01:31:03,990 --> 01:31:06,150
zero. So now they're bearish to have a
2269
01:31:06,150 --> 01:31:08,130
net short position. What do you think
2270
01:31:08,130 --> 01:31:09,450
price should be doing at that point?
2271
01:31:09,690 --> 01:31:11,820
It's going to correct. You see that
2272
01:31:11,820 --> 01:31:13,560
happened here. It comes down and
2273
01:31:13,560 --> 01:31:16,050
corrects to what an old support level
2274
01:31:16,050 --> 01:31:18,210
and see this. Okay, price comes down to
2275
01:31:18,210 --> 01:31:20,700
that price level. Now also look very
2276
01:31:20,700 --> 01:31:23,520
closely, you'll see price moving up
2277
01:31:23,550 --> 01:31:25,320
aggressively, and then trading all the
2278
01:31:25,320 --> 01:31:26,700
way back coming back inside of that
2279
01:31:26,700 --> 01:31:29,880
range right there. Okay, see that? This
2280
01:31:29,880 --> 01:31:31,770
is optimal trade entry. This is the
2281
01:31:31,770 --> 01:31:37,380
classic ICT entry pattern. Okay. If you
2282
01:31:37,380 --> 01:31:39,390
were an indicator driven driven trader,
2283
01:31:39,480 --> 01:31:41,880
if you look for over sold bullish
2284
01:31:41,880 --> 01:31:44,310
divergence scenarios in this environment
2285
01:31:44,310 --> 01:31:47,160
right in here, you would have hugely
2286
01:31:47,670 --> 01:31:51,480
popular results in terms of success
2287
01:31:51,780 --> 01:31:53,880
being a buyer at that time point. Okay.
2288
01:31:54,300 --> 01:31:55,890
That's when your indicators work. And
2289
01:31:55,890 --> 01:31:57,420
also notice once we got back down to
2290
01:31:57,420 --> 01:31:58,770
this level one, you know, the
2291
01:31:58,770 --> 01:32:00,990
commercials were now net Long so now
2292
01:32:00,990 --> 01:32:03,060
they're assuming another long position
2293
01:32:03,930 --> 01:32:06,480
to the trend if you will, is in a bull
2294
01:32:06,480 --> 01:32:08,310
market and you want to be in sync with
2295
01:32:08,310 --> 01:32:10,320
with them. So here they are the net
2296
01:32:10,320 --> 01:32:13,440
long. The large speculators are the
2297
01:32:13,440 --> 01:32:15,690
funds, they're short here. Okay, they
2298
01:32:15,690 --> 01:32:17,370
wrote this little bit of a move down.
2299
01:32:17,970 --> 01:32:19,620
Now it's time to get in gear with the
2300
01:32:19,680 --> 01:32:21,810
move higher again resumed the primary
2301
01:32:21,810 --> 01:32:23,880
macro trend higher to commercials
2302
01:32:23,910 --> 01:32:26,580
establish new Long's in here. Price
2303
01:32:26,580 --> 01:32:28,470
should be rallying as it rallies the
2304
01:32:28,470 --> 01:32:31,020
unwind that hedge and as they drop it
2305
01:32:31,020 --> 01:32:33,060
off in here, who's buying the other side
2306
01:32:33,060 --> 01:32:35,550
of it to large funds until we get to a
2307
01:32:35,550 --> 01:32:37,530
diametrically opposed position again,
2308
01:32:38,190 --> 01:32:40,290
when we have this extreme largest net
2309
01:32:40,290 --> 01:32:41,760
short position in the last 12 months
2310
01:32:41,760 --> 01:32:43,980
there should be a high forming. There's
2311
01:32:43,980 --> 01:32:47,010
your high now, price comes back up to an
2312
01:32:47,010 --> 01:32:49,440
old level of support resistance and we
2313
01:32:49,440 --> 01:32:50,970
have a price move from this high down to
2314
01:32:50,970 --> 01:32:54,450
this low grade in here. If you look at
2315
01:32:54,510 --> 01:32:57,330
the weekly chart, as we discussed in the
2316
01:32:57,330 --> 01:33:00,000
position trading set, we talked about we
2317
01:33:00,000 --> 01:33:02,220
The order blocks, you'll see price in
2318
01:33:02,220 --> 01:33:03,450
this example comes right up to that
2319
01:33:03,450 --> 01:33:05,610
price point. Okay? And that's when it
2320
01:33:05,700 --> 01:33:08,010
gives you the high based on the
2321
01:33:08,010 --> 01:33:11,100
fundamental drivers in co2 data and we
2322
01:33:11,100 --> 01:33:13,860
start to move lower and resume the
2323
01:33:13,860 --> 01:33:17,070
downtrend. Okay. Because we have another
2324
01:33:17,880 --> 01:33:20,220
net short position extreme by the
2325
01:33:20,220 --> 01:33:23,280
commercials. Okay, so that's a graphic
2326
01:33:23,280 --> 01:33:27,570
depiction, if you will of. So that's a
2327
01:33:27,570 --> 01:33:30,240
graphic depiction, if you will, of the
2328
01:33:30,600 --> 01:33:32,610
trend of the commercials or trade
2329
01:33:32,640 --> 01:33:33,930
Commitment of Traders and commercials
2330
01:33:33,930 --> 01:33:39,960
and how they move. But look at this
2331
01:33:39,960 --> 01:33:41,970
example here. Okay, this is what gets a
2332
01:33:41,970 --> 01:33:45,510
lot of folks disgruntled with the use of
2333
01:33:45,810 --> 01:33:49,860
Commitment of Traders. Looking at where
2334
01:33:49,860 --> 01:33:53,160
we are just simply over, are we above or
2335
01:33:53,160 --> 01:33:55,350
below the zero line, that's not enough.
2336
01:33:55,500 --> 01:33:58,170
You have to have price action included
2337
01:33:58,440 --> 01:34:00,000
with the understanding because if you
2338
01:34:00,000 --> 01:34:01,380
Looking at this example here, you can
2339
01:34:01,380 --> 01:34:02,550
clearly see that there was a
2340
01:34:02,550 --> 01:34:04,230
diametrically opposed position between
2341
01:34:04,230 --> 01:34:08,490
two net shorts held by commercials, and
2342
01:34:08,520 --> 01:34:11,580
net longs held by the large speculators.
2343
01:34:11,640 --> 01:34:12,150
So
2344
01:34:14,340 --> 01:34:16,110
common sense tells us that we should be
2345
01:34:16,110 --> 01:34:18,390
expecting a high to form, but look what
2346
01:34:18,390 --> 01:34:20,940
takes place. These are weekly candles,
2347
01:34:21,000 --> 01:34:23,910
okay? There's roughly three months,
2348
01:34:23,970 --> 01:34:27,360
okay? or so before the actual high was
2349
01:34:27,360 --> 01:34:29,670
formed, and then start to see the Euro
2350
01:34:29,670 --> 01:34:30,810
start trading down. So that's what I'm
2351
01:34:30,810 --> 01:34:33,690
trying to explain to you. It's not to
2352
01:34:33,690 --> 01:34:37,530
simply having the net short position or
2353
01:34:37,530 --> 01:34:38,970
net long positions with commercials,
2354
01:34:39,150 --> 01:34:40,890
okay, that's not enough. You have to
2355
01:34:40,890 --> 01:34:42,360
have support resistance. You have to
2356
01:34:42,360 --> 01:34:44,310
have market structure. You have to have
2357
01:34:44,310 --> 01:34:47,160
all those facets together to complement
2358
01:34:47,160 --> 01:34:48,990
your analysis and not to simply putting
2359
01:34:48,990 --> 01:34:50,430
everything on one tool.
2360
01:34:56,250 --> 01:34:58,950
Now looking obviously at the net long
2361
01:34:58,950 --> 01:35:01,590
position here held by the commercials
2362
01:35:02,700 --> 01:35:04,800
when you see that if you have been
2363
01:35:04,800 --> 01:35:07,080
selling and you've been bearish, okay,
2364
01:35:07,380 --> 01:35:10,530
looking for new shorts should again
2365
01:35:10,530 --> 01:35:14,160
start with like weaning back the amount
2366
01:35:14,190 --> 01:35:17,070
of risk on your your shorts and start
2367
01:35:17,070 --> 01:35:21,870
expecting some level of rejection around
2368
01:35:21,870 --> 01:35:23,580
higher level support and resistance
2369
01:35:23,760 --> 01:35:26,340
levels. Now I don't have the charts in
2370
01:35:26,340 --> 01:35:27,990
this example. But if you go out to
2371
01:35:27,990 --> 01:35:29,820
historical charts and you look at the
2372
01:35:29,820 --> 01:35:33,840
120 level, it's very indicative of a key
2373
01:35:33,840 --> 01:35:36,210
support level. And when price came down
2374
01:35:36,210 --> 01:35:38,040
to that level, and if you just recently
2375
01:35:38,040 --> 01:35:40,740
saw in the last year or so, we were
2376
01:35:40,740 --> 01:35:44,640
calling the market to trade around that
2377
01:35:44,640 --> 01:35:46,410
same level again, and that was the low
2378
01:35:46,410 --> 01:35:48,480
of the year last year. So when you see
2379
01:35:48,480 --> 01:35:51,150
that in video on YouTube, on the inner
2380
01:35:51,150 --> 01:35:54,210
circle trader YouTube channel, you can
2381
01:35:54,210 --> 01:35:56,910
see it's it's it's there, I mean, it was
2382
01:35:56,940 --> 01:36:00,600
called in advance and it is Basically
2383
01:36:00,600 --> 01:36:02,250
using the information that I'm showing
2384
01:36:02,250 --> 01:36:05,970
you here, understanding again that the
2385
01:36:05,970 --> 01:36:08,520
idea of support resistance is the the
2386
01:36:08,520 --> 01:36:11,580
central tenant to why this works, not
2387
01:36:11,580 --> 01:36:13,080
just simply are the commercials net long
2388
01:36:13,080 --> 01:36:14,580
and short. You want to be looking at
2389
01:36:14,580 --> 01:36:16,050
support resistance. You want to be
2390
01:36:16,050 --> 01:36:17,550
looking at market structure, are we in a
2391
01:36:17,820 --> 01:36:20,310
overall bullish or bearish market
2392
01:36:20,310 --> 01:36:22,080
environment? Are we making higher highs
2393
01:36:22,080 --> 01:36:23,580
higher lows? We're making lower lows
2394
01:36:23,580 --> 01:36:27,030
lower highs, have we broken significant
2395
01:36:27,030 --> 01:36:28,980
resistance and then has it turned to
2396
01:36:28,980 --> 01:36:30,990
support and now as the commercials
2397
01:36:31,080 --> 01:36:33,450
signifying that there's a major trend
2398
01:36:33,450 --> 01:36:36,330
change underway, okay, as we see here in
2399
01:36:36,360 --> 01:36:39,900
the year 2009, around April in June time
2400
01:36:39,900 --> 01:36:41,970
period, all of a sudden that that low,
2401
01:36:42,360 --> 01:36:43,560
you know, formed and he had an
2402
01:36:43,560 --> 01:36:46,380
astronomical opportunity to capture a
2403
01:36:46,380 --> 01:36:48,180
huge amount of pips.
2404
01:36:53,970 --> 01:36:55,740
Same thing can be said here. When we
2405
01:36:55,740 --> 01:36:57,690
have this extreme level, net short
2406
01:36:57,690 --> 01:37:00,450
position. You're probably thinking Well,
2407
01:37:00,450 --> 01:37:02,040
I don't have a lot of time to be waiting
2408
01:37:02,040 --> 01:37:03,840
around for these yearly moves here,
2409
01:37:03,870 --> 01:37:06,840
okay, you know, these net long extremes.
2410
01:37:07,170 --> 01:37:08,730
I don't have time for that, well, that's
2411
01:37:08,730 --> 01:37:10,980
wonderful. Okay, you don't have to have
2412
01:37:10,980 --> 01:37:13,740
time. All you need to know is where
2413
01:37:13,740 --> 01:37:16,170
we're at in terms of the trend, okay?
2414
01:37:16,170 --> 01:37:19,020
And you can get in sync with that. If we
2415
01:37:19,020 --> 01:37:20,610
see that there's a heavy net short
2416
01:37:20,610 --> 01:37:24,330
position here. We don't have to have the
2417
01:37:24,330 --> 01:37:27,390
bets highly leveraged, okay, we're going
2418
01:37:27,390 --> 01:37:29,610
to see the high form in this euro
2419
01:37:29,610 --> 01:37:31,500
market, okay, we would expect it to
2420
01:37:31,500 --> 01:37:33,930
break down then try to rally again, kind
2421
01:37:33,930 --> 01:37:37,500
of like in here. See, price broke down,
2422
01:37:37,740 --> 01:37:42,000
took out a low rally again failed. If
2423
01:37:42,000 --> 01:37:43,260
you look at optimal trade entry
2424
01:37:44,070 --> 01:37:46,110
concepts, this is your your entry point
2425
01:37:46,110 --> 01:37:47,250
right in here, this is what you would be
2426
01:37:47,250 --> 01:37:49,620
looking for. Then when you break down
2427
01:37:49,620 --> 01:37:52,440
below the low that this formed. This is
2428
01:37:52,440 --> 01:37:54,420
when you have a very clear shift in
2429
01:37:54,420 --> 01:37:56,250
market structure or break in structure.
2430
01:37:57,180 --> 01:38:00,720
Then low that's anchored to this Here
2431
01:38:00,960 --> 01:38:02,940
retraces then you have another apple
2432
01:38:03,180 --> 01:38:05,760
tree right in here. And boom, you have a
2433
01:38:05,760 --> 01:38:08,100
nice sell off. Okay, several hundred
2434
01:38:08,100 --> 01:38:10,440
pips. Again made available to you.
2435
01:38:10,860 --> 01:38:12,990
That's what this concept teaches you. It
2436
01:38:12,990 --> 01:38:15,060
doesn't give you the 50 PIP trades,
2437
01:38:15,390 --> 01:38:17,550
okay? It doesn't give you the hundred
2438
01:38:17,550 --> 01:38:20,640
and 20 pips weekly ranges, okay? It
2439
01:38:20,640 --> 01:38:24,420
gives you the 500 plus PIP moves to 1000
2440
01:38:24,420 --> 01:38:26,550
pips. Okay? That's the type of trades
2441
01:38:26,550 --> 01:38:30,360
that sets up. Now looking again at this
2442
01:38:30,360 --> 01:38:32,040
area here where we went short by the
2443
01:38:32,040 --> 01:38:34,500
commercials, okay, there's a lot of
2444
01:38:34,500 --> 01:38:36,330
money to be made just trading inside
2445
01:38:36,360 --> 01:38:38,940
this but keeping their perspective in
2446
01:38:38,940 --> 01:38:41,040
mind and knowing that, okay, we just
2447
01:38:41,040 --> 01:38:42,960
came out of a net long position, that's
2448
01:38:42,960 --> 01:38:45,270
extreme. We're retracing. If we come
2449
01:38:45,270 --> 01:38:46,920
back down to these levels here support
2450
01:38:46,920 --> 01:38:49,020
at around 130. See how it bounced off
2451
01:38:49,020 --> 01:38:51,180
that level there. Okay, we had some
2452
01:38:51,180 --> 01:38:52,590
resistance here. It did violate a little
2453
01:38:52,590 --> 01:38:54,090
bit, okay, but generally, you see the
2454
01:38:54,090 --> 01:38:56,250
bounce here. When we trade it back down
2455
01:38:56,250 --> 01:38:57,960
to that 130 level and commercials were
2456
01:38:57,960 --> 01:39:01,770
net long. With the backdrop of this net
2457
01:39:01,770 --> 01:39:05,010
long position extreme, you have to have
2458
01:39:05,010 --> 01:39:06,930
this in mind that this could be a very
2459
01:39:06,930 --> 01:39:09,450
explosive move coming off of that 130
2460
01:39:09,450 --> 01:39:12,330
level, simply utilizing the market
2461
01:39:12,330 --> 01:39:13,800
structure shift that took place here,
2462
01:39:13,800 --> 01:39:15,900
see I have a high and then blew through
2463
01:39:15,900 --> 01:39:17,790
it right there. Okay, we have a market
2464
01:39:17,790 --> 01:39:19,800
structure shift comes back down to noon,
2465
01:39:20,430 --> 01:39:23,880
resistance broken. Now support with
2466
01:39:23,880 --> 01:39:27,420
commercials on the backside of neck long
2467
01:39:27,450 --> 01:39:29,730
position by the commercials, man that's
2468
01:39:29,730 --> 01:39:32,550
like a, that's like candy, that's candy
2469
01:39:32,760 --> 01:39:35,880
and the set up one to two times a year.
2470
01:39:37,110 --> 01:39:39,180
That's where you hunt. That's what you
2471
01:39:39,180 --> 01:39:42,270
want to be the 90% of your time. Looking
2472
01:39:42,270 --> 01:39:44,310
at studying in price, you're looking for
2473
01:39:44,310 --> 01:39:46,380
these scenarios here. Okay, you're
2474
01:39:46,380 --> 01:39:47,850
looking for them. Because once you
2475
01:39:47,850 --> 01:39:50,760
identify that, look at how much time you
2476
01:39:50,760 --> 01:39:53,190
have when the trend starts moving. When
2477
01:39:53,190 --> 01:39:54,510
you're in these consolidations like
2478
01:39:54,510 --> 01:39:57,090
this, and like this and here, okay, and
2479
01:39:57,090 --> 01:39:59,160
down in here, you have to be a harmonic
2480
01:39:59,160 --> 01:40:01,980
trader. Okay, during consolidations,
2481
01:40:01,980 --> 01:40:03,570
when the markets in training ranges,
2482
01:40:03,840 --> 01:40:05,820
that's when harmonic trading is ideal.
2483
01:40:05,850 --> 01:40:06,780
That's when you make money with
2484
01:40:06,780 --> 01:40:09,420
harmonics, trading crabs and in gartley
2485
01:40:09,420 --> 01:40:11,850
and such, okay? But the way you make
2486
01:40:11,850 --> 01:40:14,850
astronomical explosive profits, okay?
2487
01:40:14,850 --> 01:40:17,970
And risk reward is astronomical, is when
2488
01:40:17,970 --> 01:40:19,530
you catch these types of moves here, you
2489
01:40:19,530 --> 01:40:20,820
put the trade on with very, very low
2490
01:40:20,820 --> 01:40:23,490
risk, and you'll let them run. Okay,
2491
01:40:23,610 --> 01:40:26,280
these are what I call mega trades, okay,
2492
01:40:26,310 --> 01:40:27,630
I've kind of dubbed that back in the
2493
01:40:27,630 --> 01:40:30,030
late 90s, where you look for one or two
2494
01:40:30,030 --> 01:40:33,000
big moves a year, and 9% of your study
2495
01:40:33,000 --> 01:40:35,040
time is based on that. And if you look
2496
01:40:35,040 --> 01:40:37,830
at the work over the last four years
2497
01:40:37,830 --> 01:40:38,760
that I've been doing with just with
2498
01:40:38,760 --> 01:40:42,570
forex on on the internet, all the major
2499
01:40:42,570 --> 01:40:44,820
moves has been pretty much called by me
2500
01:40:44,820 --> 01:40:46,500
in advance, and I'm not trying to beat
2501
01:40:46,500 --> 01:40:48,570
my chest and brag, okay, but asking
2502
01:40:48,570 --> 01:40:49,890
around and there's not a whole lot of
2503
01:40:49,890 --> 01:40:51,570
people that can do that, and it hasn't
2504
01:40:51,570 --> 01:40:52,740
been documented as well.
2505
01:40:58,620 --> 01:41:00,000
Alright, so now we're going to focus on
2506
01:41:00,000 --> 01:41:03,570
On this net long position here, when we
2507
01:41:03,570 --> 01:41:05,940
see this environment, what do you look
2508
01:41:05,940 --> 01:41:09,810
for? Well, I like to look for a
2509
01:41:09,810 --> 01:41:12,030
combination of things. Obviously I want
2510
01:41:12,030 --> 01:41:16,140
to see a market structure shift on a
2511
01:41:16,170 --> 01:41:18,570
inner intraday basis. Okay because it
2512
01:41:18,600 --> 01:41:20,700
you're going to see the chain change on
2513
01:41:20,700 --> 01:41:22,740
an intraday level intraday level before
2514
01:41:22,740 --> 01:41:25,230
you see it clearly on the weekly and
2515
01:41:25,230 --> 01:41:26,850
daily, okay, it's going to happen on the
2516
01:41:26,850 --> 01:41:30,660
intraday levels first, but what happens
2517
01:41:30,660 --> 01:41:32,610
is many times folks are spending too
2518
01:41:32,610 --> 01:41:34,800
much time on an intraday basis and not
2519
01:41:34,800 --> 01:41:37,710
spending enough time where we are on a
2520
01:41:37,710 --> 01:41:39,330
macro level as it relates to the
2521
01:41:39,330 --> 01:41:41,070
intraday Okay, so now once they put way
2522
01:41:41,070 --> 01:41:43,470
too much emphasis on the intraday. When
2523
01:41:43,470 --> 01:41:45,000
we get to these environments like yes,
2524
01:41:45,030 --> 01:41:49,560
then I'm very very keen on knowing what
2525
01:41:49,560 --> 01:41:51,210
the intraday levels look like around
2526
01:41:51,240 --> 01:41:53,400
noon to five and 15 minute and one hour
2527
01:41:53,400 --> 01:41:55,140
basis because if we're trading at these
2528
01:41:55,140 --> 01:41:56,970
price levels, and around time of day we
2529
01:41:56,970 --> 01:42:00,180
start seeing explosive moves up I'm
2530
01:42:00,180 --> 01:42:01,530
gonna be looking for that retracement.
2531
01:42:01,590 --> 01:42:03,480
Okay, I'm gonna be looking for bullish
2532
01:42:03,480 --> 01:42:04,950
harmonic patterns I'm gonna be looking
2533
01:42:04,950 --> 01:42:07,860
for optimal trade entries I'm gonna be
2534
01:42:07,860 --> 01:42:09,810
looking for bullish reflection pattern
2535
01:42:09,810 --> 01:42:11,760
ICT reflections, I'm gonna be looking
2536
01:42:11,760 --> 01:42:15,990
for you to open up the days near the
2537
01:42:15,990 --> 01:42:18,840
low, okay and very minor moves from the
2538
01:42:18,840 --> 01:42:21,060
opening down and then exploding up to
2539
01:42:21,060 --> 01:42:23,310
close high on day. That's that's the,
2540
01:42:23,370 --> 01:42:24,990
that's the environment I'm looking for.
2541
01:42:25,110 --> 01:42:27,930
If I start seeing that unfold in the
2542
01:42:27,930 --> 01:42:31,230
daily on the daily ranges, I know I
2543
01:42:31,230 --> 01:42:32,730
probably got a tiger by the tail and if
2544
01:42:32,730 --> 01:42:35,220
I can get an intraday pullback on an
2545
01:42:35,220 --> 01:42:37,470
hourly or four or four hour basis and
2546
01:42:37,470 --> 01:42:38,820
catch an optimal trade entry, you know,
2547
01:42:38,820 --> 01:42:41,160
based on like a big figure number or
2548
01:42:41,190 --> 01:42:43,440
half mid figure or an institutional
2549
01:42:43,440 --> 01:42:46,290
level based on that initial pop because
2550
01:42:46,320 --> 01:42:48,450
you want to buy the first return. When
2551
01:42:48,450 --> 01:42:50,910
we see that big surge up and it starts
2552
01:42:50,910 --> 01:42:52,650
to retrace, I'm going to be testing the
2553
01:42:52,650 --> 01:42:54,930
waters and trying to catch that first,
2554
01:42:55,290 --> 01:42:57,750
you know return from where we came from.
2555
01:42:57,810 --> 01:43:00,210
At that 120 level. It may not get right
2556
01:43:00,210 --> 01:43:01,800
back down to that 120 level. In fact, I
2557
01:43:01,800 --> 01:43:03,900
don't want to go down to 120 level, I
2558
01:43:03,900 --> 01:43:06,750
want to see it blast off and try to fill
2559
01:43:06,750 --> 01:43:09,720
in the expansion of the recent price
2560
01:43:09,720 --> 01:43:11,880
action. Once it retraces back into an
2561
01:43:11,910 --> 01:43:13,260
existing order block on a lower
2562
01:43:13,260 --> 01:43:16,140
timeframe, I'd be looking to be a buyer
2563
01:43:16,140 --> 01:43:19,320
there. And then whatever market profits
2564
01:43:19,320 --> 01:43:21,540
I can acquire during that initial move,
2565
01:43:21,750 --> 01:43:24,810
that's what I'll use as a buffer to
2566
01:43:24,870 --> 01:43:27,900
allow me to take initial, you know,
2567
01:43:28,650 --> 01:43:31,740
Long's on the unit in the swing setup,
2568
01:43:31,890 --> 01:43:35,340
like we would have in here, right in
2569
01:43:35,340 --> 01:43:37,620
here. So if I, if I can make money down
2570
01:43:37,620 --> 01:43:40,050
here on this move in here, okay, if I
2571
01:43:40,050 --> 01:43:42,330
get a bounce in here, whatever profits I
2572
01:43:42,330 --> 01:43:44,730
have initially, I'm going to use that to
2573
01:43:44,730 --> 01:43:48,750
maximize the leverage, okay? When I get
2574
01:43:48,750 --> 01:43:50,520
this scenario here, because this is the
2575
01:43:50,520 --> 01:43:53,100
trend following event, where we'll see
2576
01:43:53,100 --> 01:43:56,430
the explosive portion of the trend and
2577
01:43:56,430 --> 01:43:58,110
the longest portion of that trend unfold
2578
01:43:58,170 --> 01:44:00,210
right in here. Okay, and we're gonna An
2579
01:44:00,210 --> 01:44:01,710
example of the Canadian dollar later on
2580
01:44:01,710 --> 01:44:08,220
exactly what I did this year. All right,
2581
01:44:08,220 --> 01:44:09,990
this is what it looks like on a forex
2582
01:44:09,990 --> 01:44:12,270
chart. Okay, same thing. All we're doing
2583
01:44:12,270 --> 01:44:14,280
is looking at the data in a forex
2584
01:44:14,280 --> 01:44:17,190
platform. And this is at the time this
2585
01:44:17,190 --> 01:44:19,980
was actually done with an FX cm. I don't
2586
01:44:19,980 --> 01:44:23,160
trade with FX cm at the moment, but this
2587
01:44:23,160 --> 01:44:25,080
is that that charting platform that was
2588
01:44:25,080 --> 01:44:27,690
used and you can see the price did make
2589
01:44:27,690 --> 01:44:28,920
the low here just like it did in the
2590
01:44:28,920 --> 01:44:31,920
commodity market and price rally. And
2591
01:44:31,920 --> 01:44:33,300
then here's that retracement back down
2592
01:44:33,300 --> 01:44:36,750
into a an existing order block, rallied
2593
01:44:36,750 --> 01:44:39,000
up retraced optimal trade entry and then
2594
01:44:39,000 --> 01:44:41,640
boom for the trend continuation. Here's
2595
01:44:41,640 --> 01:44:42,900
where the commercials were net long,
2596
01:44:43,080 --> 01:44:46,560
wildly net long. And here's where they
2597
01:44:47,220 --> 01:44:49,350
move back to a net long position and all
2598
01:44:49,350 --> 01:44:52,170
of a sudden took off. A lot of money to
2599
01:44:52,170 --> 01:44:53,880
be made right there. Lots and lots of
2600
01:44:53,880 --> 01:44:55,170
money to be made something like that.
2601
01:44:59,220 --> 01:45:03,390
Now Right in here, this scenario, okay,
2602
01:45:03,420 --> 01:45:05,610
much like we had described down here,
2603
01:45:05,640 --> 01:45:07,710
I'd be looking for very similar types of
2604
01:45:07,740 --> 01:45:10,260
events I'd be looking for, you know, if
2605
01:45:10,260 --> 01:45:12,210
you're an indicator based trader, like
2606
01:45:12,210 --> 01:45:14,100
MACD or something like that,
2607
01:45:14,760 --> 01:45:15,630
you could be looking for bullish
2608
01:45:15,630 --> 01:45:18,240
divergence. You could be looking for
2609
01:45:18,270 --> 01:45:22,950
trades set up with the Judas swing. In
2610
01:45:22,950 --> 01:45:25,500
other words, if price trades initially
2611
01:45:25,590 --> 01:45:28,830
intraday lower for the day, I would
2612
01:45:28,830 --> 01:45:30,750
expect price to make the low today first
2613
01:45:30,750 --> 01:45:33,510
and then rally up. I could be expected
2614
01:45:33,510 --> 01:45:37,710
to find ICT reflection patterns, bullish
2615
01:45:37,710 --> 01:45:40,800
harmonic patterns, okay. But the
2616
01:45:40,800 --> 01:45:44,010
problem, okay, harmonic traders have is
2617
01:45:44,280 --> 01:45:46,890
they'll be taking profits way too early.
2618
01:45:47,400 --> 01:45:50,130
Okay, because, yes, we're inside of an
2619
01:45:50,130 --> 01:45:52,200
ideal range environment for harmonic
2620
01:45:52,200 --> 01:45:54,870
trading. But they'll cut their profits
2621
01:45:54,870 --> 01:45:57,870
short, not understanding where we are on
2622
01:45:57,870 --> 01:46:00,270
the macro level perspective. They'll
2623
01:46:00,300 --> 01:46:02,430
cheat themselves all of the existence
2624
01:46:03,870 --> 01:46:05,580
potential profits that made available
2625
01:46:05,820 --> 01:46:11,520
and by doing that, it kills the In my
2626
01:46:11,520 --> 01:46:15,780
opinion, it kills the necessity to be
2627
01:46:15,780 --> 01:46:17,340
just a harmonic trader, even though I
2628
01:46:17,340 --> 01:46:20,220
have harmonic skills in my trading. I'm
2629
01:46:20,220 --> 01:46:22,860
not quote unquote harmonic trader, I am
2630
01:46:22,860 --> 01:46:25,320
a dynamic trader and I understand market
2631
01:46:25,320 --> 01:46:27,270
profiling. So when you understand how to
2632
01:46:27,270 --> 01:46:30,300
profile a market, you can work with any
2633
01:46:30,300 --> 01:46:32,850
market environment and be able to reap
2634
01:46:32,850 --> 01:46:33,570
profits.
2635
01:46:38,610 --> 01:46:40,290
So looking at this, we can actually see
2636
01:46:40,860 --> 01:46:43,740
a turtle soup, which is a false break
2637
01:46:43,740 --> 01:46:46,590
below an old low, quick rejection. Now
2638
01:46:46,590 --> 01:46:48,960
think about it. Price had rallied up
2639
01:46:48,960 --> 01:46:52,080
here, came down and bounced, where would
2640
01:46:52,080 --> 01:46:55,140
the funds and trend traders okay they
2641
01:46:55,140 --> 01:46:56,280
were lucky enough to buy down here or
2642
01:46:56,280 --> 01:46:58,320
maybe even down here or here. Where were
2643
01:46:58,320 --> 01:46:59,700
they now immediately move their stop
2644
01:46:59,700 --> 01:47:02,010
loss. right below here, right? So watch
2645
01:47:02,010 --> 01:47:05,010
what happens. Price rallies and comes
2646
01:47:05,010 --> 01:47:07,560
back down, takes out the stops. Why
2647
01:47:07,560 --> 01:47:10,170
would they do that? Why would price come
2648
01:47:10,170 --> 01:47:11,670
all the way back down here just to come
2649
01:47:11,670 --> 01:47:13,740
down just below this area, quickly run
2650
01:47:13,740 --> 01:47:17,520
it and rally away. Because these stops
2651
01:47:17,580 --> 01:47:20,580
are going to be what? Sell stops, sell
2652
01:47:20,580 --> 01:47:22,770
stops when they're triggered at market
2653
01:47:22,770 --> 01:47:24,180
price right here when price comes down
2654
01:47:24,180 --> 01:47:25,500
in your head and hits that level here,
2655
01:47:25,770 --> 01:47:27,330
all of the pending orders down here
2656
01:47:27,330 --> 01:47:30,720
become what market orders to do what to
2657
01:47:30,720 --> 01:47:33,060
sell. Why? Because they're net long in
2658
01:47:33,060 --> 01:47:35,280
here. So if they're trying to protect
2659
01:47:35,280 --> 01:47:37,140
your position they want to sell out of
2660
01:47:37,140 --> 01:47:38,250
it because they don't want to lose any
2661
01:47:38,250 --> 01:47:40,500
money, okay, or maybe lose some of the
2662
01:47:40,500 --> 01:47:42,390
profits. What will happen is price will
2663
01:47:42,390 --> 01:47:45,270
come down, trigger those pending orders
2664
01:47:45,600 --> 01:47:47,910
to sell stock becomes a market order to
2665
01:47:47,910 --> 01:47:50,880
sell at market who's going to buy at
2666
01:47:50,880 --> 01:47:53,760
market smart money. So they knock these
2667
01:47:53,760 --> 01:47:55,680
guys out of them. They're completely off
2668
01:47:55,680 --> 01:47:58,020
the bus now. And they assume their seat
2669
01:47:58,260 --> 01:48:00,600
right before the bus takes off. And hits
2670
01:48:00,600 --> 01:48:02,430
the destination they wanted to be part
2671
01:48:02,430 --> 01:48:07,620
of town here, here in here. So we start
2672
01:48:07,620 --> 01:48:11,490
to see rejections and, and raids on
2673
01:48:11,490 --> 01:48:13,680
liquidity pools right below old lows, I
2674
01:48:13,680 --> 01:48:18,360
love seeing that 90% of the best moves
2675
01:48:18,630 --> 01:48:21,240
take place with this environment right
2676
01:48:21,240 --> 01:48:24,270
in here. Okay? Now here's the wonderful
2677
01:48:24,270 --> 01:48:26,310
thing is the daily chart. If you see the
2678
01:48:26,310 --> 01:48:28,260
reaction like this, come down here, take
2679
01:48:28,260 --> 01:48:30,960
that out and reject. You can now look
2680
01:48:30,960 --> 01:48:32,280
for the environment where the market
2681
01:48:32,280 --> 01:48:34,170
opens and trades lower initially for the
2682
01:48:34,170 --> 01:48:38,700
day by that by that initial low moving
2683
01:48:38,790 --> 01:48:40,920
off of the opening, okay during the
2684
01:48:40,920 --> 01:48:42,450
London session, the London session is
2685
01:48:42,450 --> 01:48:44,220
going to create the load day typically
2686
01:48:44,220 --> 01:48:45,750
in that environment. And you'll see the
2687
01:48:45,750 --> 01:48:47,460
market rally up close high on the day
2688
01:48:47,580 --> 01:48:48,840
and then you'll see that phenomenon
2689
01:48:48,870 --> 01:48:51,420
unfold as we move higher. Okay, but with
2690
01:48:51,420 --> 01:48:54,210
minor retracements as we go along. Every
2691
01:48:54,210 --> 01:48:56,760
time the price retraces Okay, it comes
2692
01:48:56,760 --> 01:48:59,280
back to an order block. Okay or comes
2693
01:48:59,280 --> 01:49:01,650
back to an old support, or resistance,
2694
01:49:01,650 --> 01:49:04,140
broken turn support, or resistance,
2695
01:49:04,170 --> 01:49:06,960
broken turn support, or resistance
2696
01:49:06,960 --> 01:49:09,840
broken turn support, or resistance
2697
01:49:09,870 --> 01:49:12,570
broken turn support. Each one of those
2698
01:49:12,570 --> 01:49:14,400
environments is an opportunity for you
2699
01:49:14,400 --> 01:49:17,070
to be a buyer using directional premise.
2700
01:49:17,460 --> 01:49:20,130
There's no rocket science to it is just
2701
01:49:20,130 --> 01:49:22,020
a matter of looking for a combination of
2702
01:49:22,020 --> 01:49:24,120
ingredients, and then following the
2703
01:49:24,120 --> 01:49:27,060
recipe to get Blue Ribbon results. And
2704
01:49:27,060 --> 01:49:29,010
it takes some effort, guys, it's not
2705
01:49:29,010 --> 01:49:30,990
simply a magic wand where you wave in
2706
01:49:30,990 --> 01:49:32,070
front of your screen and it's going to
2707
01:49:32,070 --> 01:49:34,500
be a neon sign, okay? Or I'm not gonna
2708
01:49:34,500 --> 01:49:36,180
be on here every day tweeting, hey,
2709
01:49:36,180 --> 01:49:38,070
look, it's a buy day, or this is the day
2710
01:49:38,070 --> 01:49:40,290
you buy. Don't, don't, don't look to me
2711
01:49:40,290 --> 01:49:42,960
as an Oracle. I'm not that. I am an
2712
01:49:42,960 --> 01:49:44,250
educator. I'm trying to teach you how to
2713
01:49:44,250 --> 01:49:46,230
do this for yourself. I've been doing it
2714
01:49:46,230 --> 01:49:47,760
for 20 years. I know this stuff works.
2715
01:49:47,790 --> 01:49:49,830
It makes lots and lots and lots of money
2716
01:49:50,040 --> 01:49:51,630
and you don't need to do a whole lot to
2717
01:49:51,630 --> 01:49:57,300
make a lot of money. Alright, so now
2718
01:49:57,300 --> 01:50:00,210
looking at again, the price action takes
2719
01:50:00,210 --> 01:50:01,770
place here right before this, this is an
2720
01:50:01,770 --> 01:50:03,780
optimal trade entry. Okay, so if you've
2721
01:50:03,780 --> 01:50:05,790
run your fibs across this price action,
2722
01:50:06,000 --> 01:50:07,980
you would see this take place. The main
2723
01:50:07,980 --> 01:50:09,210
thing I really want you to understand
2724
01:50:09,210 --> 01:50:11,700
is, what makes this optimal is that it
2725
01:50:11,700 --> 01:50:14,520
comes back and fills this range. Okay,
2726
01:50:14,520 --> 01:50:16,530
from the low to the high, right before
2727
01:50:16,530 --> 01:50:19,170
it takes off this explosive move. This
2728
01:50:19,170 --> 01:50:22,020
is what is indicative of institutional
2729
01:50:22,020 --> 01:50:24,990
order flow. This is only going to occur
2730
01:50:25,080 --> 01:50:26,430
when there's going to be institutional
2731
01:50:26,430 --> 01:50:29,460
sponsorship, people that have lots and
2732
01:50:29,460 --> 01:50:31,650
lots and lots of money at their
2733
01:50:31,650 --> 01:50:33,510
disposal, and they're putting it to work
2734
01:50:33,540 --> 01:50:36,450
by buying this currency. And when it
2735
01:50:36,450 --> 01:50:38,820
rallies up like this, okay, it has to
2736
01:50:38,820 --> 01:50:40,380
cool down just like we saw in the
2737
01:50:40,500 --> 01:50:43,140
administrators, they went net short and
2738
01:50:43,140 --> 01:50:44,820
that's why you see this retracement.
2739
01:50:45,330 --> 01:50:46,890
What do they do? Again, they went to a
2740
01:50:46,890 --> 01:50:49,530
net long position. So these are buying
2741
01:50:49,530 --> 01:50:51,960
more aggressively right in here. And the
2742
01:50:51,960 --> 01:50:54,840
accumulated even more of the positions
2743
01:50:54,840 --> 01:50:57,180
made through liquidity by running out to
2744
01:50:57,210 --> 01:50:59,280
old low here. Notice there was no other
2745
01:50:59,520 --> 01:51:01,770
low tech Out prior This is the one
2746
01:51:01,770 --> 01:51:04,230
that's going to cause the x exponential
2747
01:51:04,230 --> 01:51:07,170
surge higher in price when you see that
2748
01:51:07,440 --> 01:51:10,020
in a move up, you see this you like to
2749
01:51:10,020 --> 01:51:12,870
trade the A to B C to D you know
2750
01:51:14,250 --> 01:51:17,220
price projections. Okay? When you see
2751
01:51:17,220 --> 01:51:19,620
this phenomenon This is what is the
2752
01:51:19,620 --> 01:51:21,300
telltale signature point and guess what
2753
01:51:21,300 --> 01:51:24,090
no one else teaches that nobody on the
2754
01:51:24,090 --> 01:51:26,250
internet teaches that but this is the
2755
01:51:26,250 --> 01:51:29,670
perfect scenario to justify when an ABCD
2756
01:51:29,850 --> 01:51:32,280
extension okay price swing when that
2757
01:51:32,280 --> 01:51:34,710
takes place this is what's there always
2758
01:51:35,670 --> 01:51:39,180
Okay, put that in your notes every ABCD
2759
01:51:39,180 --> 01:51:41,310
extension or price swing or measured
2760
01:51:41,310 --> 01:51:45,630
move always has this in it every single
2761
01:51:45,630 --> 01:51:46,980
one of them when it comes down blows out
2762
01:51:46,980 --> 01:51:49,410
the low in an existing price swing up
2763
01:51:49,800 --> 01:51:51,000
this is when you know what's going to
2764
01:51:51,000 --> 01:51:53,010
happen when it violates and rejects
2765
01:51:53,040 --> 01:51:54,090
that's it you know you're gonna get an
2766
01:51:54,090 --> 01:51:55,890
extension has What do you mean by that?
2767
01:51:55,890 --> 01:51:58,500
Well, watch this take the low to this
2768
01:51:58,500 --> 01:52:01,230
high see that range from This low to
2769
01:52:01,230 --> 01:52:03,480
high, when this thing rallies up, it's
2770
01:52:03,480 --> 01:52:05,130
going to do the same measured move from
2771
01:52:05,130 --> 01:52:07,950
this low to high off the low. And you
2772
01:52:07,950 --> 01:52:10,290
can see the range from this low to high
2773
01:52:10,320 --> 01:52:13,290
is duplicated from this low to this
2774
01:52:13,290 --> 01:52:16,500
high. So now you know how to do a
2775
01:52:17,040 --> 01:52:19,680
confirmation if you will have one of the
2776
01:52:20,280 --> 01:52:22,320
quote unquote, basic harmonic patterns
2777
01:52:22,380 --> 01:52:26,430
that no one else teaches. Alright, now,
2778
01:52:26,490 --> 01:52:29,040
obviously, it sounds like, you know,
2779
01:52:29,070 --> 01:52:30,540
it's so easy. You can't wait to get out
2780
01:52:30,540 --> 01:52:32,160
and start looking at commitment traders
2781
01:52:32,160 --> 01:52:33,750
and start making lots of money. But I
2782
01:52:33,750 --> 01:52:35,280
want you to understand it's not always
2783
01:52:35,280 --> 01:52:37,860
as clear as we would hope. Many times
2784
01:52:38,010 --> 01:52:40,650
it's simply understanding, are we
2785
01:52:40,680 --> 01:52:43,800
reducing net shorts, or are we reducing
2786
01:52:43,830 --> 01:52:45,630
net longs, it doesn't necessarily have
2787
01:52:45,630 --> 01:52:47,670
to be a net long net short position that
2788
01:52:47,700 --> 01:52:49,410
tells us something and that's when
2789
01:52:49,410 --> 01:52:51,480
another tool needs to come into play.
2790
01:52:51,600 --> 01:52:53,400
And that's going to be the tool of open
2791
01:52:53,400 --> 01:52:54,180
interest.
2792
01:52:59,490 --> 01:53:01,770
When we see price action like this where
2793
01:53:01,770 --> 01:53:03,210
the commercials are already net long,
2794
01:53:03,480 --> 01:53:05,340
okay? But they were coming out of the
2795
01:53:05,340 --> 01:53:06,600
net long positions aggressively and then
2796
01:53:06,600 --> 01:53:08,730
they added aggressively right here this
2797
01:53:08,730 --> 01:53:11,640
is indicative of a buy. This is
2798
01:53:11,640 --> 01:53:15,990
supporting a buy. Okay? They are yes net
2799
01:53:15,990 --> 01:53:17,580
long but they have been aggressively
2800
01:53:17,580 --> 01:53:18,810
coming off in that Long's but when they
2801
01:53:18,810 --> 01:53:22,200
see this buying surge again in here that
2802
01:53:22,590 --> 01:53:24,990
happens that occur right here. When we
2803
01:53:24,990 --> 01:53:28,470
come back down to this swing, this low
2804
01:53:28,470 --> 01:53:30,720
in here. When we look at price coming
2805
01:53:30,720 --> 01:53:32,670
down to these levels in here, we're
2806
01:53:32,670 --> 01:53:34,770
going to find support, it's justified by
2807
01:53:34,770 --> 01:53:38,160
them increasing net long positions. And
2808
01:53:38,160 --> 01:53:40,860
you see price taken off, okay? It's not
2809
01:53:40,860 --> 01:53:45,690
again, it's not indicative of easy
2810
01:53:45,690 --> 01:53:48,540
winnings by simply looking at the net
2811
01:53:48,540 --> 01:53:50,730
short net and net long position for the
2812
01:53:50,730 --> 01:53:52,110
commercial. That's not enough. You need
2813
01:53:52,110 --> 01:53:56,970
to have a little bit of perspective, if
2814
01:53:56,970 --> 01:53:59,160
you will. If for instance, I'll give you
2815
01:53:59,160 --> 01:54:02,100
this if The commercial are heavily net
2816
01:54:02,100 --> 01:54:04,170
short. Okay, if they're heavily net
2817
01:54:04,170 --> 01:54:09,930
short that would be, you know, viewed as
2818
01:54:09,960 --> 01:54:11,610
they have a fundamental reason to expect
2819
01:54:11,610 --> 01:54:14,130
lower prices soon, sometime soon, they
2820
01:54:14,130 --> 01:54:15,780
expect fundamentally that the price
2821
01:54:15,780 --> 01:54:17,940
should not go much higher, and it should
2822
01:54:17,940 --> 01:54:19,800
be a retracement of some sort or all
2823
01:54:19,800 --> 01:54:22,170
together a reversal. But if they
2824
01:54:22,350 --> 01:54:26,790
aggressively change gears, okay, and
2825
01:54:26,790 --> 01:54:29,160
they don't think that there is a
2826
01:54:29,580 --> 01:54:34,800
likelihood of the move occurring on a
2827
01:54:34,830 --> 01:54:37,020
timescale that they thought they may
2828
01:54:37,020 --> 01:54:40,140
aggressively change their net position,
2829
01:54:40,470 --> 01:54:43,950
okay, and that is useful, okay, because
2830
01:54:44,880 --> 01:54:46,890
you can see that here we have a net
2831
01:54:46,950 --> 01:54:49,110
overall net short position, their net
2832
01:54:49,110 --> 01:54:50,760
short here, but then look what they do.
2833
01:54:50,760 --> 01:54:53,520
They rapidly reduce their net short
2834
01:54:53,520 --> 01:54:56,940
position right before the big moves
2835
01:54:56,940 --> 01:54:58,410
takes place out of this consolidation
2836
01:54:58,920 --> 01:55:00,450
inside of this move right here. Here, if
2837
01:55:00,450 --> 01:55:02,250
you looked at open interest, which we'll
2838
01:55:02,340 --> 01:55:04,440
talk more about in a little bit, no
2839
01:55:04,440 --> 01:55:06,300
punches decline. I know this for a fact
2840
01:55:06,300 --> 01:55:08,310
because I have the information I'm not
2841
01:55:09,120 --> 01:55:11,040
looking at trading opportunities back
2842
01:55:11,040 --> 01:55:13,620
then, looking at this in here, you'll
2843
01:55:13,620 --> 01:55:15,630
see open interest decline, open interest
2844
01:55:15,630 --> 01:55:18,060
is only going to decline if commercials
2845
01:55:18,090 --> 01:55:20,310
are covering shorts rapidly, because
2846
01:55:20,490 --> 01:55:23,370
they are the market entity that creates
2847
01:55:23,370 --> 01:55:24,660
the markets for us in the futures
2848
01:55:24,660 --> 01:55:27,990
market. So if they are the largest net
2849
01:55:27,990 --> 01:55:30,120
short, foreign seller in the
2850
01:55:30,120 --> 01:55:32,430
marketplace, they have a real reason to
2851
01:55:32,430 --> 01:55:34,440
be selling it because they're hedging if
2852
01:55:34,470 --> 01:55:38,040
they are rapidly reducing their net
2853
01:55:38,040 --> 01:55:40,020
short position. That's telling you
2854
01:55:40,020 --> 01:55:41,280
something fundamentally, they don't
2855
01:55:41,280 --> 01:55:42,660
think it's going to go lower.
2856
01:55:42,840 --> 01:55:45,150
Immediately. Soon, they expect a sizable
2857
01:55:45,150 --> 01:55:47,430
move and when you know 1000 PIP move and
2858
01:55:47,430 --> 01:55:50,280
Sue's before it starts to take a turn of
2859
01:55:50,280 --> 01:55:51,570
events and makes it go lower.
2860
01:55:56,910 --> 01:55:59,520
Now, again, going back to this in here,
2861
01:55:59,730 --> 01:56:01,290
okay? It's important that you understand
2862
01:56:01,290 --> 01:56:06,300
that there is a lot of swing trades
2863
01:56:06,300 --> 01:56:08,790
available throughout the year by using
2864
01:56:08,790 --> 01:56:11,070
this information. This is a daily chart
2865
01:56:11,100 --> 01:56:13,170
these are all daily candles. When you
2866
01:56:13,170 --> 01:56:15,030
see price surge like this initially,
2867
01:56:15,360 --> 01:56:17,580
okay starts to retrace, you want to be
2868
01:56:17,580 --> 01:56:19,800
focusing on support resistance, you
2869
01:56:19,800 --> 01:56:21,660
won't be looking for order blocks, okay,
2870
01:56:21,690 --> 01:56:23,580
which will be the last bearish candle
2871
01:56:23,580 --> 01:56:25,290
before the big move, okay, that's where
2872
01:56:25,290 --> 01:56:27,270
the Smart Money accumulates in down
2873
01:56:27,270 --> 01:56:29,100
moves. Okay. As we discussed how the
2874
01:56:29,100 --> 01:56:31,200
commercials trade in the large macro
2875
01:56:31,290 --> 01:56:33,780
span of price swings, the same thing
2876
01:56:33,780 --> 01:56:36,480
happens on a daily chart, you know, on
2877
01:56:36,480 --> 01:56:38,010
down days, that's when they accumulate
2878
01:56:38,010 --> 01:56:39,930
longs. Okay, how many times have you
2879
01:56:39,930 --> 01:56:41,490
looked at a stock chart? Have you looked
2880
01:56:41,490 --> 01:56:45,960
at an indicee Okay, or a currency and we
2881
01:56:45,960 --> 01:56:48,120
had real big washout day, you know, big
2882
01:56:48,120 --> 01:56:50,400
200 PIP down day, and the very next day
2883
01:56:50,430 --> 01:56:53,880
it rockets up 150 next day continues on
2884
01:56:53,880 --> 01:56:57,630
and never turns around. They accumulated
2885
01:56:57,630 --> 01:56:59,370
long positions during those down days.
2886
01:56:59,760 --> 01:57:01,890
You You need to think like a smart
2887
01:57:01,890 --> 01:57:04,950
trader, okay? And smart traders are what
2888
01:57:04,950 --> 01:57:08,220
we dub as smart money. smart money buys,
2889
01:57:08,250 --> 01:57:10,740
when prices dropping, you have to get
2890
01:57:10,740 --> 01:57:12,660
that in your mind and don't be afraid.
2891
01:57:12,840 --> 01:57:16,290
You, you need to grow comfortable buying
2892
01:57:16,290 --> 01:57:19,200
when prices screaming going lower. And I
2893
01:57:19,200 --> 01:57:21,900
know it sounds like it doesn't make any
2894
01:57:21,900 --> 01:57:23,790
bit of sense, but that's exactly what
2895
01:57:24,540 --> 01:57:26,910
works. Okay? You want to be trading in
2896
01:57:26,910 --> 01:57:28,080
the opposite direction you want to see a
2897
01:57:28,080 --> 01:57:32,280
profit in. Alright, so basically, as it
2898
01:57:32,280 --> 01:57:34,860
relates to Commitment of Traders, you
2899
01:57:34,860 --> 01:57:36,660
need to start listening to the herd,
2900
01:57:36,810 --> 01:57:38,220
okay, in other words, the forums people
2901
01:57:38,220 --> 01:57:39,570
telling you I'm buying this I'm buying
2902
01:57:39,570 --> 01:57:41,100
that the guys that had the most popular
2903
01:57:41,100 --> 01:57:42,510
YouTube channel, the most subscribers,
2904
01:57:42,720 --> 01:57:44,640
yada yada. These guys don't know what
2905
01:57:44,640 --> 01:57:46,680
they're doing. They talk a good game,
2906
01:57:46,680 --> 01:57:47,670
but they have no idea what they're
2907
01:57:47,670 --> 01:57:49,920
doing. The way you stay informed is you
2908
01:57:49,920 --> 01:57:52,410
want to be focusing in on the smart
2909
01:57:52,410 --> 01:57:54,060
money and here's the wonderful thing.
2910
01:57:54,120 --> 01:57:56,160
They make the information available for
2911
01:57:56,160 --> 01:57:58,110
free. You want to trade in the direction
2912
01:57:58,170 --> 01:58:00,000
of the most recent 12 months. Come on.
2913
01:58:00,000 --> 01:58:02,820
deposition, you want to wait for price
2914
01:58:02,820 --> 01:58:05,940
to form intermediate term swings use
2915
01:58:06,000 --> 01:58:08,370
optimal trade entry patterns to enter
2916
01:58:08,370 --> 01:58:10,440
and trade with the large traders Now
2917
01:58:10,440 --> 01:58:11,910
again, that's not the commercials to
2918
01:58:11,910 --> 01:58:13,800
large traders are those long trend
2919
01:58:13,800 --> 01:58:15,570
following long term trend following
2920
01:58:15,570 --> 01:58:17,820
traders, okay. They are going to be
2921
01:58:17,880 --> 01:58:19,140
assuming the other side of the
2922
01:58:19,140 --> 01:58:21,720
liquidation of the hedges that the
2923
01:58:21,720 --> 01:58:24,150
commercial traders absorb and accumulate
2924
01:58:24,180 --> 01:58:26,880
during these big price swings. You want
2925
01:58:26,880 --> 01:58:28,920
to filter out Long's when administrator
2926
01:58:29,100 --> 01:58:32,610
reaches a fresh 12 month and or four
2927
01:58:32,610 --> 01:58:34,650
year extreme on the commercial net short
2928
01:58:34,650 --> 01:58:37,830
position. Now think about that. You're
2929
01:58:37,830 --> 01:58:41,280
getting rid of the necessity to feel
2930
01:58:41,280 --> 01:58:42,270
like you're going to make a million
2931
01:58:42,270 --> 01:58:43,980
dollars on a long position when
2932
01:58:43,980 --> 01:58:45,990
fundamentally it's not likely to happen.
2933
01:58:47,310 --> 01:58:49,350
That's wealth making insight right
2934
01:58:49,350 --> 01:58:51,960
there. You want to filter out shorts
2935
01:58:51,990 --> 01:58:53,370
when the Commitment of Traders reaches
2936
01:58:53,400 --> 01:58:55,920
fresh 12 month or four year streams on
2937
01:58:55,920 --> 01:58:58,740
commercial net long positions. All we
2938
01:58:58,740 --> 01:59:01,080
did was reverse the scenario When we see
2939
01:59:01,110 --> 01:59:03,210
commitment traders reaching a 12 month
2940
01:59:03,240 --> 01:59:05,640
or four year extreme in net long
2941
01:59:05,640 --> 01:59:07,650
positions, you want to be filtering your
2942
01:59:07,650 --> 01:59:09,900
short positions and reducing risk not to
2943
01:59:09,900 --> 01:59:12,030
say you can't day trade and so you can't
2944
01:59:12,300 --> 01:59:13,740
nothing. You don't have opportunity to
2945
01:59:13,740 --> 01:59:15,720
be a seller still, but you just have to
2946
01:59:15,720 --> 01:59:18,090
be mindful that anytime soon there's
2947
01:59:18,090 --> 01:59:20,400
going to be a major upset of that
2948
01:59:20,400 --> 01:59:21,660
downtrend. And it's going to be
2949
01:59:21,660 --> 01:59:23,610
aggressive, many times it unfolds very
2950
01:59:23,610 --> 01:59:26,700
aggressively. You want to trade with the
2951
01:59:26,700 --> 01:59:29,430
co2 trend engineered by the commercials.
2952
01:59:29,760 --> 01:59:31,140
You want to look for seasonal tendencies
2953
01:59:31,140 --> 01:59:33,090
that line up with the net readings of
2954
01:59:34,140 --> 01:59:36,690
what's what you see in price action. And
2955
01:59:36,780 --> 01:59:38,520
by doing that, you're gonna have the
2956
01:59:38,520 --> 01:59:40,560
framework for remarkable trade setups.
2957
01:59:43,530 --> 01:59:45,510
Now for more information on commitment
2958
01:59:45,510 --> 01:59:48,720
traders, obviously not to resources that
2959
01:59:48,720 --> 01:59:50,340
I think are really good are the
2960
01:59:50,340 --> 01:59:52,770
commitments of traders Bible by Stephen
2961
01:59:52,800 --> 01:59:55,770
Reese and trading stocks and commodities
2962
01:59:55,770 --> 01:59:58,560
with the insiders secret the CO t report
2963
01:59:58,560 --> 02:00:00,570
by Larry Williams and I don't have it
2964
02:00:00,570 --> 02:00:02,100
listed here. But I always talk about
2965
02:00:02,100 --> 02:00:03,900
every time I talk about books. If you
2966
02:00:03,900 --> 02:00:05,640
don't have Larry Williams how I made a
2967
02:00:05,640 --> 02:00:07,050
million dollars trading commodities last
2968
02:00:07,050 --> 02:00:10,980
year book, again, it was a 1970s book.
2969
02:00:11,190 --> 02:00:14,700
And it's still absolutely timely today.
2970
02:00:14,970 --> 02:00:16,290
The information is related to
2971
02:00:16,290 --> 02:00:18,000
commercials in there and open interest
2972
02:00:18,030 --> 02:00:21,990
is what I'm discussing here. Okay. And I
2973
02:00:21,990 --> 02:00:24,660
think it's one of the absolute gems in
2974
02:00:24,660 --> 02:00:27,990
technical analysis that honestly, a lot
2975
02:00:27,990 --> 02:00:29,880
of people read his book. A lot of people
2976
02:00:29,880 --> 02:00:31,500
know that commitment traders. A lot of
2977
02:00:31,500 --> 02:00:33,420
people know what interest open interest
2978
02:00:33,420 --> 02:00:35,940
is, but not a lot of people actually use
2979
02:00:35,940 --> 02:00:37,170
it because if they did to be wildly
2980
02:00:37,170 --> 02:00:40,260
successful. So
2981
02:00:41,940 --> 02:00:44,760
going ahead, going forward, if you find
2982
02:00:44,760 --> 02:00:48,270
yourself another resource that provides
2983
02:00:48,270 --> 02:00:50,580
commitment traders resources, and you
2984
02:00:50,580 --> 02:00:52,470
think it's useful to the subscribers to
2985
02:00:52,470 --> 02:00:54,480
my work, obviously I would love to have
2986
02:00:54,480 --> 02:00:57,270
a heads up about it. Again, we talked
2987
02:00:57,270 --> 02:01:01,560
about using bar charts. Calm and you see
2988
02:01:01,560 --> 02:01:04,290
me using bar chart, bar chart calm in my
2989
02:01:04,290 --> 02:01:07,470
videos. But I mentioned in here price
2990
02:01:07,470 --> 02:01:10,320
charts calm and I think that to me I
2991
02:01:10,320 --> 02:01:13,080
think Mark chart is just as good as
2992
02:01:13,290 --> 02:01:16,290
price charts calm if not better because
2993
02:01:16,290 --> 02:01:18,060
it's free and allows the subscribers to
2994
02:01:18,060 --> 02:01:20,250
my material to do without having any any
2995
02:01:20,250 --> 02:01:22,950
kind of paid resources and I know a lot
2996
02:01:22,950 --> 02:01:24,870
of guys are on short budgets, but
2997
02:01:25,650 --> 02:01:27,000
eventually at some point you might want
2998
02:01:27,000 --> 02:01:28,260
to avail yourself some resources and
2999
02:01:28,260 --> 02:01:29,760
spend a little bit of money in it.
3000
02:01:29,760 --> 02:01:33,720
There's nothing wrong with that. But if
3001
02:01:34,470 --> 02:01:36,570
you find something that's comparable to
3002
02:01:36,570 --> 02:01:38,400
the the ones I've suggested here to
3003
02:01:38,400 --> 02:01:39,990
share, share it with me and I'll share
3004
02:01:39,990 --> 02:01:41,880
it with subscribers and pass that
3005
02:01:41,880 --> 02:01:49,080
insight on to others. Okay, how to
3006
02:01:49,080 --> 02:01:52,110
capture explosive forex profits. Now I
3007
02:01:52,110 --> 02:01:53,820
know this is exactly what everybody
3008
02:01:53,820 --> 02:01:57,090
wants to know, right. All right,
3009
02:01:57,090 --> 02:01:59,250
Michael, how do I make money? This is
3010
02:01:59,250 --> 02:02:00,720
great. We're talking a lot theory here,
3011
02:02:00,930 --> 02:02:04,080
you're boring me to death. How do I make
3012
02:02:04,080 --> 02:02:05,850
money? How do I get in the marketplace
3013
02:02:05,850 --> 02:02:07,590
and find these big moves? Okay, you're
3014
02:02:07,590 --> 02:02:08,850
showing this stuff in hindsight, but how
3015
02:02:08,850 --> 02:02:10,500
do I, how do I look for it going ahead?
3016
02:02:11,220 --> 02:02:14,910
well understand this. One of the biggest
3017
02:02:14,940 --> 02:02:17,910
moneymakers that I have is trading with
3018
02:02:17,910 --> 02:02:21,120
the weekly range. And weekly range is
3019
02:02:21,120 --> 02:02:23,490
one of the absolutely beautiful
3020
02:02:23,490 --> 02:02:26,310
scenarios where you get the lines
3021
02:02:26,310 --> 02:02:28,830
portion of the weekly range. And
3022
02:02:28,830 --> 02:02:32,430
ideally, you want to be buying very near
3023
02:02:32,520 --> 02:02:34,890
the weekly low. And you want to be able
3024
02:02:34,890 --> 02:02:39,270
to absorb the time required to hold on
3025
02:02:39,270 --> 02:02:42,570
to the position until late Thursday and
3026
02:02:42,600 --> 02:02:48,300
even as late as Friday's close. there's
3027
02:02:48,300 --> 02:02:50,670
a there's a little study I made a lot of
3028
02:02:50,880 --> 02:02:52,710
folks do when I initially put out this
3029
02:02:52,710 --> 02:02:57,390
information 2010 I asked everyone to
3030
02:02:57,390 --> 02:03:01,620
simply look at the weekly range over a
3031
02:03:01,650 --> 02:03:04,740
15 minute chart, no words compressor,
3032
02:03:05,010 --> 02:03:07,380
your 15 minute chart and delineate the
3033
02:03:07,380 --> 02:03:08,760
days that way it gives you a vertical
3034
02:03:08,760 --> 02:03:11,100
line delineate when the days begin and
3035
02:03:11,100 --> 02:03:13,650
end, and I want you to notice that
3036
02:03:13,650 --> 02:03:15,660
reoccurring pattern it takes place. And
3037
02:03:15,660 --> 02:03:19,140
I know many folks have been trading for
3038
02:03:19,140 --> 02:03:21,750
a long period of time, I had commented
3039
02:03:21,930 --> 02:03:24,060
in email saying was pretty obvious in
3040
02:03:24,060 --> 02:03:27,690
it. Well, my question is, as if it's so
3041
02:03:27,690 --> 02:03:29,430
obvious, how did you use the information
3042
02:03:29,460 --> 02:03:30,660
to trade the weekly range on a
3043
02:03:30,660 --> 02:03:32,670
consistent basis, were able to use the
3044
02:03:32,670 --> 02:03:36,240
information and use it to facilitate a
3045
02:03:36,240 --> 02:03:38,760
trading plan? And they never replied
3046
02:03:38,760 --> 02:03:41,100
with any information to the to the
3047
02:03:41,100 --> 02:03:44,070
effect that they did. So what I'm
3048
02:03:44,070 --> 02:03:46,410
suggesting to you is this, go into your
3049
02:03:46,410 --> 02:03:48,750
charts and go for the next couple weeks.
3050
02:03:48,900 --> 02:03:51,630
Okay, I'm going to show you how, if you
3051
02:03:51,630 --> 02:03:53,580
focus on the monthly, weekly and daily
3052
02:03:53,730 --> 02:03:56,160
and you arrive at a premise two
3053
02:03:56,160 --> 02:04:01,800
directional bias on co2 data The 1840
3054
02:04:01,800 --> 02:04:03,510
moving average concept we just discussed
3055
02:04:03,510 --> 02:04:04,650
and we'll talk more about in a little
3056
02:04:04,650 --> 02:04:07,770
bit here. If you look at when it's
3057
02:04:08,730 --> 02:04:11,070
positioned to move higher or expected to
3058
02:04:11,070 --> 02:04:13,800
be bullish, if you look at the activity
3059
02:04:13,800 --> 02:04:16,230
on a weekly chart, or weekly basis
3060
02:04:16,230 --> 02:04:19,140
rather over a whole week, time span and
3061
02:04:19,140 --> 02:04:20,850
it's easy to see on a 15 minute time
3062
02:04:20,850 --> 02:04:22,140
frame, compress it so you have the whole
3063
02:04:22,320 --> 02:04:24,780
Sunday to Friday's close. You'll see
3064
02:04:24,780 --> 02:04:28,020
that the weekly high in a bearish
3065
02:04:28,020 --> 02:04:31,050
environment typically forms around
3066
02:04:31,050 --> 02:04:34,590
Tuesday's London open session. And many
3067
02:04:34,590 --> 02:04:36,810
times if it's going to be a down week,
3068
02:04:36,840 --> 02:04:39,750
it'll form no later than Wednesday's
3069
02:04:39,750 --> 02:04:44,970
London open. There is a 70 to 80% chance
3070
02:04:45,000 --> 02:04:47,280
of that phenomenon taking place. Again,
3071
02:04:47,280 --> 02:04:49,320
if it's a bearish environment, you're
3072
02:04:49,320 --> 02:04:51,480
expected to see lower prices because the
3073
02:04:51,480 --> 02:04:53,370
overall macro trend is bearish. What
3074
02:04:53,370 --> 02:04:55,890
will happen is Sunday's opening, what
3075
02:04:56,010 --> 02:04:59,700
open and Monday's trading will generally
3076
02:04:59,850 --> 02:05:01,890
be consolidation and then it'll start to
3077
02:05:01,890 --> 02:05:04,770
move up. Okay? What happens is all the
3078
02:05:04,770 --> 02:05:06,540
neophyte traders start thinking this is
3079
02:05:06,540 --> 02:05:08,760
going to be the next big move up. So
3080
02:05:08,760 --> 02:05:09,900
they start buying and buying and buying
3081
02:05:09,900 --> 02:05:12,300
and buying and on Tuesday, okay? What
3082
02:05:12,300 --> 02:05:14,490
will happen is during the asian session
3083
02:05:14,520 --> 02:05:17,250
Monday into Tuesday, there'll be more
3084
02:05:17,250 --> 02:05:18,630
consolidation and then what happens
3085
02:05:18,630 --> 02:05:20,970
they'll ramp it up real aggressively up.
3086
02:05:21,300 --> 02:05:23,220
And that's what we call a Judas swing,
3087
02:05:23,250 --> 02:05:24,510
okay? Or it's like a fake out.
3088
02:05:26,010 --> 02:05:28,710
Or what I just recently dubbed it for
3089
02:05:28,710 --> 02:05:30,810
those that make fun of the Judas swings
3090
02:05:30,810 --> 02:05:35,190
name. It's the open rally sell. down
3091
02:05:35,190 --> 02:05:38,610
close. Okay, so to open rally, sell.
3092
02:05:39,210 --> 02:05:40,530
Okay, so now what you're looking for an
3093
02:05:40,530 --> 02:05:43,260
opening, looking at midnight in New York
3094
02:05:43,260 --> 02:05:46,770
time, the initial move up at that time
3095
02:05:46,770 --> 02:05:50,130
point, going into the London open
3096
02:05:50,130 --> 02:05:51,030
session around three o'clock in the
3097
02:05:51,030 --> 02:05:54,990
morning in New York time. Generally
3098
02:05:54,990 --> 02:05:56,580
between two o'clock in the morning and
3099
02:05:56,580 --> 02:05:57,840
four o'clock in the morning, New York
3100
02:05:57,840 --> 02:06:00,300
time in that environment, the high The
3101
02:06:00,420 --> 02:06:02,400
high of The day will form. Now if it
3102
02:06:02,400 --> 02:06:05,550
happens to be on a Tuesday or Wednesdays
3103
02:06:05,550 --> 02:06:08,220
London open, you have 80% chance that
3104
02:06:08,220 --> 02:06:09,210
that's going to be the weekly high.
3105
02:06:10,170 --> 02:06:11,760
Don't take my word on it, go through
3106
02:06:11,760 --> 02:06:14,670
your charts and study it. Okay? And I'm
3107
02:06:14,670 --> 02:06:16,230
telling you, I know what's going to
3108
02:06:16,230 --> 02:06:17,730
happen. I'm going to get three to 400
3109
02:06:17,730 --> 02:06:19,680
emails again, saying I can't believe
3110
02:06:19,680 --> 02:06:21,030
it's been there all this time. Yeah,
3111
02:06:21,030 --> 02:06:22,770
you're right. It's been an all this time
3112
02:06:22,800 --> 02:06:24,360
and again, nobody talks about it. But
3113
02:06:24,360 --> 02:06:28,020
ICT in bullish environments, okay. What
3114
02:06:28,020 --> 02:06:30,060
will happen is the market will open on
3115
02:06:30,060 --> 02:06:33,690
Sunday, consolidate it or trade lower on
3116
02:06:33,690 --> 02:06:35,460
Monday and then Tuesday will consolidate
3117
02:06:35,460 --> 02:06:37,260
and then there'll be a rapid decline
3118
02:06:37,560 --> 02:06:39,840
going into Tuesdays London open or
3119
02:06:39,900 --> 02:06:41,280
between two o'clock and four o'clock in
3120
02:06:41,280 --> 02:06:44,250
the morning on the East Coast, New York
3121
02:06:44,250 --> 02:06:46,860
time. Okay. When you have that window of
3122
02:06:46,860 --> 02:06:48,360
opportunity, that's that's the ICT
3123
02:06:48,360 --> 02:06:52,440
London open kill zone. The opportunity
3124
02:06:52,470 --> 02:06:56,460
is to expect the weekly loaded form on
3125
02:06:56,460 --> 02:06:58,410
Tuesdays London open or as late as
3126
02:06:58,410 --> 02:07:00,180
Wednesdays, London open now. You're
3127
02:07:00,180 --> 02:07:02,010
probably saying, Okay, well, you know,
3128
02:07:02,010 --> 02:07:03,480
that's, that's wonderful, but it's still
3129
02:07:03,480 --> 02:07:05,250
not hundred percent. You don't need
3130
02:07:05,250 --> 02:07:07,560
100%. Okay, if you had the macro view in
3131
02:07:07,560 --> 02:07:09,990
line and expecting, you know, the
3132
02:07:10,230 --> 02:07:12,900
directional premise to be one direction
3133
02:07:13,170 --> 02:07:14,700
or another based on what we've discussed
3134
02:07:14,700 --> 02:07:18,750
so far, you have a lot of the battle
3135
02:07:18,750 --> 02:07:20,520
already won for you. Now you're just
3136
02:07:20,520 --> 02:07:23,010
going to fine tune it down to Okay,
3137
02:07:23,010 --> 02:07:26,010
well, if the markets predisposed to move
3138
02:07:26,010 --> 02:07:29,460
higher, and that means that the market
3139
02:07:29,460 --> 02:07:31,740
should be closing up on the week. So the
3140
02:07:31,740 --> 02:07:33,720
range from the opening on Sunday to
3141
02:07:33,750 --> 02:07:36,600
close on Friday, ideally should be an up
3142
02:07:36,630 --> 02:07:41,880
move. So our principle should suggest
3143
02:07:41,880 --> 02:07:43,650
that Friday's close should be higher
3144
02:07:43,650 --> 02:07:45,510
than the price that was traded on
3145
02:07:45,540 --> 02:07:48,510
Sunday. Right? Okay, well, how do we get
3146
02:07:48,510 --> 02:07:50,460
to that? There's got to be a low form
3147
02:07:50,460 --> 02:07:52,590
first, right? Many times what'll happen
3148
02:07:52,590 --> 02:07:54,810
is they engineered early beginnings of
3149
02:07:54,810 --> 02:07:56,700
the week to go lower and a lot of times
3150
02:07:56,700 --> 02:07:59,160
that fake out sucks in a lot of neophyte
3151
02:07:59,160 --> 02:08:01,680
traders If you watch the forum's many
3152
02:08:01,680 --> 02:08:03,630
times, they buy it hook line and sinker
3153
02:08:03,630 --> 02:08:05,940
and they chase prices going lower, and
3154
02:08:05,940 --> 02:08:07,710
they get shell shocked when they reverse
3155
02:08:07,710 --> 02:08:09,390
it dramatically and they drag them
3156
02:08:09,390 --> 02:08:11,220
across the whole entire weekly range.
3157
02:08:14,340 --> 02:08:15,450
Okay, folks, we're looking at the
3158
02:08:15,450 --> 02:08:17,850
Canadian dollars as a weekly chart. And
3159
02:08:17,850 --> 02:08:19,110
I want to show you what it looks like.
3160
02:08:19,320 --> 02:08:21,150
In an example that just recently
3161
02:08:21,150 --> 02:08:24,120
happened. We have the red line here is
3162
02:08:24,120 --> 02:08:27,720
its commercials. And when you get this
3163
02:08:27,720 --> 02:08:30,870
chart on your, on your, this is bar
3164
02:08:30,870 --> 02:08:33,690
chart calm By the way, you go down to
3165
02:08:35,040 --> 02:08:36,240
the bottom of the page, once you load a
3166
02:08:36,240 --> 02:08:40,320
chart up, click indicator and you're
3167
02:08:40,320 --> 02:08:44,490
going to add this one right here. The
3168
02:08:44,490 --> 02:08:47,460
Commitment of Traders line chart. Okay,
3169
02:08:47,460 --> 02:08:49,170
that's what you want. You can make it
3170
02:08:49,170 --> 02:08:52,980
small, medium, large. It's small right
3171
02:08:52,980 --> 02:08:55,170
now don't eat any larger than it is. I
3172
02:08:55,170 --> 02:09:01,110
got five years on it. So going back You
3173
02:09:01,110 --> 02:09:03,270
can see that this is the largest net
3174
02:09:03,270 --> 02:09:05,100
long position that commercials has had
3175
02:09:05,280 --> 02:09:07,920
in the last four years. Okay, it was
3176
02:09:07,950 --> 02:09:10,920
above the one we have here. And price
3177
02:09:10,920 --> 02:09:16,200
traded down to the like the 89 level,
3178
02:09:16,770 --> 02:09:20,010
almost 88 level, big figure. If you go
3179
02:09:20,010 --> 02:09:21,180
out to a higher time frame which I'm not
3180
02:09:21,180 --> 02:09:22,320
going to do here just for time
3181
02:09:22,320 --> 02:09:25,710
constraints is Major support level.
3182
02:09:27,270 --> 02:09:30,420
We have a net long position and we see
3183
02:09:30,420 --> 02:09:33,870
price drive lower but fail to go lower
3184
02:09:33,870 --> 02:09:36,600
and then rallied up breaking market
3185
02:09:36,600 --> 02:09:38,190
structure highs in here so now
3186
02:09:38,190 --> 02:09:40,590
everything is bullish, we would expect
3187
02:09:40,980 --> 02:09:42,930
to see retracements and moving higher
3188
02:09:42,930 --> 02:09:45,960
going up. Before we go any further I
3189
02:09:45,960 --> 02:09:49,170
want you to take a look at this. Low
3190
02:09:49,170 --> 02:09:53,130
here. The lows over here and this low
3191
02:09:53,130 --> 02:09:55,410
here. Okay and I'm pricing went right to
3192
02:09:55,410 --> 02:09:59,430
94 and traded off of that I called 94
3193
02:10:00,000 --> 02:10:04,830
Back here, okay. And I called 94 back
3194
02:10:04,830 --> 02:10:07,290
here as well and it's all on YouTube and
3195
02:10:07,320 --> 02:10:09,330
on videos that were shared through
3196
02:10:09,330 --> 02:10:11,100
Twitter, so you can go back and take a
3197
02:10:11,100 --> 02:10:11,970
look at all that stuff. It's not
3198
02:10:11,970 --> 02:10:14,010
hindsight. I want you to take a look at
3199
02:10:14,010 --> 02:10:15,810
this purple line here as well because
3200
02:10:15,810 --> 02:10:17,490
we're gonna look at this is open
3201
02:10:17,490 --> 02:10:20,250
interest as it relates to how all this
3202
02:10:20,250 --> 02:10:21,900
stuff fits together. But for right now,
3203
02:10:22,170 --> 02:10:25,020
as price traded lower, the accumulation
3204
02:10:25,050 --> 02:10:27,000
of the Long's held by the commercials
3205
02:10:27,030 --> 02:10:29,730
indicated there was possibly a reversal
3206
02:10:29,730 --> 02:10:36,600
underway. Looking at the daily chart, we
3207
02:10:36,600 --> 02:10:43,890
have our 18 and 40 day EMAS, the green
3208
02:10:43,890 --> 02:10:51,060
is the 40 and the red is the 18 day as
3209
02:10:51,060 --> 02:10:52,650
noted here, exponential moving average
3210
02:10:53,700 --> 02:10:56,580
and I have the open interest. Again,
3211
02:10:56,580 --> 02:10:59,130
open interest can be found
3212
02:11:04,140 --> 02:11:11,940
By adding it here or by simply having
3213
02:11:12,060 --> 02:11:13,710
total volume you want to have total
3214
02:11:13,710 --> 02:11:16,380
volume not contract volume you want
3215
02:11:16,380 --> 02:11:19,260
total volume one. Okay? I have nine
3216
02:11:19,260 --> 02:11:20,490
months on here you can do whatever you
3217
02:11:20,490 --> 02:11:22,380
want to do have as much data you want to
3218
02:11:22,380 --> 02:11:28,830
show but looking at what we have this
3219
02:11:28,830 --> 02:11:32,550
was the low nowhere to violate this
3220
02:11:32,580 --> 02:11:35,160
little consolidation here rejected ran
3221
02:11:35,160 --> 02:11:38,010
out and higher. Broke market structure
3222
02:11:38,010 --> 02:11:40,950
in here and retraced back to an old
3223
02:11:40,950 --> 02:11:43,590
resistance now turn support, then
3224
02:11:43,590 --> 02:11:46,800
rallied again. Okay, came back, found
3225
02:11:46,800 --> 02:11:49,980
support at old resistance broken turn
3226
02:11:49,980 --> 02:11:53,580
support. rally through now we're coming
3227
02:11:53,580 --> 02:11:56,400
back down to an area of old resistance
3228
02:11:56,490 --> 02:12:00,270
should act to support old lows back Hear
3229
02:12:00,270 --> 02:12:03,390
it blew through those. Okay, but now I'm
3230
02:12:03,390 --> 02:12:04,860
gonna go back and take a look at a few
3231
02:12:04,860 --> 02:12:06,960
things. We have a consolidation here.
3232
02:12:07,770 --> 02:12:10,530
open interest declined rapidly. Remember
3233
02:12:10,530 --> 02:12:11,940
what we talked about open interest open
3234
02:12:11,940 --> 02:12:14,940
interest declines rapidly only when the
3235
02:12:14,940 --> 02:12:18,090
smart commercials are rapidly covering
3236
02:12:18,090 --> 02:12:19,980
their short selling. Why would they do
3237
02:12:19,980 --> 02:12:21,600
that because they think bullish prices
3238
02:12:21,600 --> 02:12:24,660
are on their way. Also, we have a
3239
02:12:24,660 --> 02:12:27,120
consolidation in here in an existing
3240
02:12:27,240 --> 02:12:29,430
bullish environment. See the 18 is above
3241
02:12:29,430 --> 02:12:32,970
the 40. We have a retracement many
3242
02:12:32,970 --> 02:12:34,290
optimal trade entry opportunities in
3243
02:12:34,290 --> 02:12:37,650
here. But remember I talked about rate
3244
02:12:37,650 --> 02:12:43,260
before we see a measurable move. You'll
3245
02:12:43,260 --> 02:12:47,430
see a stop run. Here's a low Mark comes
3246
02:12:47,430 --> 02:12:49,830
down below the low blows it out. And
3247
02:12:49,830 --> 02:12:52,650
then what do we see the expansion on the
3248
02:12:52,650 --> 02:12:55,500
upside. Not withstanding that during
3249
02:12:55,500 --> 02:12:57,900
this consolidation we also have a nother
3250
02:12:58,050 --> 02:13:00,360
drive down in open interest Which we
3251
02:13:00,360 --> 02:13:02,040
talked about in video before the fact.
3252
02:13:02,460 --> 02:13:04,950
And we saw prices rally up to what level
3253
02:13:05,250 --> 02:13:09,960
294 figure. Now, this is a 500 PIP move.
3254
02:13:11,280 --> 02:13:12,840
All based on the information that we
3255
02:13:12,840 --> 02:13:16,920
just discussed in this particular video,
3256
02:13:18,030 --> 02:13:20,040
I promise you that if you go through
3257
02:13:20,040 --> 02:13:22,860
your charts study them, well, you'll see
3258
02:13:22,950 --> 02:13:25,440
a couple of these form a year, not a
3259
02:13:25,440 --> 02:13:28,560
million, not one every month, okay, but
3260
02:13:28,560 --> 02:13:32,220
you have one or two major moves set up
3261
02:13:32,250 --> 02:13:34,500
like this, but you can trade in sync
3262
02:13:34,500 --> 02:13:37,860
with them. Once you have the directional
3263
02:13:37,860 --> 02:13:40,260
premise in mind, like see we crossed
3264
02:13:40,260 --> 02:13:42,000
over from the averages, but then later
3265
02:13:42,000 --> 02:13:43,650
on, we started seeing the averages open
3266
02:13:43,650 --> 02:13:46,410
up, okay, the averages are opened here,
3267
02:13:46,860 --> 02:13:48,780
all the way through all this. You can
3268
02:13:48,780 --> 02:13:52,380
day trade this long, with the open, drop
3269
02:13:52,380 --> 02:13:55,140
down initially in London rally off of
3270
02:13:55,140 --> 02:13:57,510
that and close higher. Okay, all that's
3271
02:13:57,510 --> 02:14:00,450
being seen here. You can also Find
3272
02:14:00,450 --> 02:14:03,060
retracements Okay, for optimal trade
3273
02:14:03,060 --> 02:14:06,150
entries, all in this move, once the
3274
02:14:06,150 --> 02:14:07,770
average is crossed over here, you wait
3275
02:14:07,770 --> 02:14:08,970
for the retracement and then the next
3276
02:14:08,970 --> 02:14:10,620
move up to open the averages and you
3277
02:14:10,620 --> 02:14:12,450
start staying stacking, this is stacking
3278
02:14:12,450 --> 02:14:14,280
when all the averages open up, much in
3279
02:14:14,280 --> 02:14:15,690
the same vein that this is stacking on
3280
02:14:15,690 --> 02:14:17,850
the lower side, the 18 was below the 40.
3281
02:14:18,210 --> 02:14:19,650
And you would just continuously look for
3282
02:14:19,650 --> 02:14:20,910
selling opportunities while that
3283
02:14:20,910 --> 02:14:25,380
condition exists. Okay, so I counsel you
3284
02:14:25,380 --> 02:14:26,940
guys that really does spend a lot of
3285
02:14:26,940 --> 02:14:28,320
time with the higher timeframes because
3286
02:14:28,320 --> 02:14:30,900
it gives you the, the backbone, okay to
3287
02:14:30,900 --> 02:14:33,300
hold on to a directional premise,
3288
02:14:33,600 --> 02:14:35,550
because you're in sync with the higher
3289
02:14:35,550 --> 02:14:36,870
time from smart money.
3290
02:14:43,500 --> 02:14:45,900
All right, the swing trade. Okay, we
3291
02:14:45,900 --> 02:14:48,330
talked about the 1840 averages, how it
3292
02:14:48,330 --> 02:14:50,370
looks, what you do with it on the charts
3293
02:14:50,370 --> 02:14:52,740
and how the CT data is useful in that
3294
02:14:52,740 --> 02:14:55,680
respect. Okay, but what is it what is
3295
02:14:55,680 --> 02:14:57,150
the swing trade look like conceptually,
3296
02:14:57,150 --> 02:14:58,470
what what are you doing? How does it
3297
02:14:58,500 --> 02:15:01,350
work? How do we confirm The setups you
3298
02:15:01,350 --> 02:15:02,940
know, is there something that we can do
3299
02:15:02,940 --> 02:15:06,090
to build the confidence factor behind
3300
02:15:06,090 --> 02:15:07,650
the trades? Well, there just happens to
3301
02:15:07,650 --> 02:15:09,480
be something that I use in my trading
3302
02:15:09,480 --> 02:15:13,770
that helps me do that. We're gonna be
3303
02:15:13,770 --> 02:15:16,410
looking at the ICT swing trading method.
3304
02:15:19,770 --> 02:15:21,930
Now what sets up an ICT swing? Okay,
3305
02:15:21,930 --> 02:15:23,880
well there's a concept that I released
3306
02:15:23,910 --> 02:15:28,260
in 2009 and actually posted this in the
3307
02:15:28,260 --> 02:15:33,180
forums on forex mentor.com yes forex
3308
02:15:33,180 --> 02:15:36,810
mentor calm now forex mentor calm, okay,
3309
02:15:36,810 --> 02:15:39,240
obviously is one of the one of the
3310
02:15:39,240 --> 02:15:43,260
widely known educating for for profit,
3311
02:15:43,740 --> 02:15:47,730
you know, websites out there and I think
3312
02:15:48,630 --> 02:15:49,680
you know, pretty much everyone knows
3313
02:15:49,680 --> 02:15:53,970
about them but I I have bought just
3314
02:15:53,970 --> 02:15:56,550
about everything that they have put out
3315
02:15:56,640 --> 02:15:58,800
with the exception of Peter Bane stuff.
3316
02:15:58,830 --> 02:16:01,500
I did get his big Dogs course. And
3317
02:16:01,500 --> 02:16:04,290
really it's not it's not much at all.
3318
02:16:05,550 --> 02:16:12,480
The the insight, okay, that I shared
3319
02:16:12,510 --> 02:16:15,120
about this concept is the SMT
3320
02:16:15,120 --> 02:16:17,280
divergence. Okay. And I get a lot of
3321
02:16:17,280 --> 02:16:18,840
questions about what is SMT divergence?
3322
02:16:19,200 --> 02:16:22,350
And always it's a little abbreviated
3323
02:16:22,410 --> 02:16:24,450
term that I came up with are smart money
3324
02:16:24,450 --> 02:16:27,420
tool and smart money tool, okay is
3325
02:16:27,420 --> 02:16:30,510
basically looking at correlated market
3326
02:16:30,510 --> 02:16:33,930
asset classes, okay, or groups, okay to
3327
02:16:34,290 --> 02:16:39,420
arrive at a underpay underpinnings based
3328
02:16:39,420 --> 02:16:42,390
on the actions of smart money. Okay. So
3329
02:16:42,420 --> 02:16:45,180
think about this if we, if we can agree
3330
02:16:45,210 --> 02:16:49,500
on the the mechanics of the markets
3331
02:16:49,500 --> 02:16:51,450
moving by those that have a lot more
3332
02:16:51,450 --> 02:16:53,970
money than us if we can agree on that.
3333
02:16:54,090 --> 02:16:56,070
Okay. I think it should be a very easy
3334
02:16:56,070 --> 02:16:58,680
thing for us to agree on. Words the mark
3335
02:16:58,680 --> 02:17:01,110
is only going to move by that entity or
3336
02:17:01,110 --> 02:17:03,420
entities that have a lot more money than
3337
02:17:03,420 --> 02:17:08,280
us, if we are able to agree on that you
3338
02:17:08,280 --> 02:17:09,870
have to understand something, they are
3339
02:17:09,870 --> 02:17:13,020
motivated by greed, either not to lose
3340
02:17:13,020 --> 02:17:15,810
money or to make money. Either way you
3341
02:17:15,810 --> 02:17:20,280
cut it, it's still greed now. Because
3342
02:17:20,310 --> 02:17:23,520
they are driven by greed, they will be
3343
02:17:23,850 --> 02:17:28,410
emotionally. Okay? charts, humans just
3344
02:17:28,410 --> 02:17:30,510
like us, okay? The guys that are
3345
02:17:30,510 --> 02:17:33,810
managing those hedges, okay? And they're
3346
02:17:33,870 --> 02:17:35,550
assuming those positions, they're human
3347
02:17:35,550 --> 02:17:37,170
beings just like us, and they're prone
3348
02:17:37,170 --> 02:17:39,600
to make mistakes. They're going to buy
3349
02:17:39,600 --> 02:17:40,830
more than they should or they're going
3350
02:17:40,830 --> 02:17:42,660
to sell more than they should. Now think
3351
02:17:42,660 --> 02:17:45,720
about this, if we understand that an
3352
02:17:45,720 --> 02:17:50,370
asset class is closely correlated. And
3353
02:17:50,370 --> 02:17:53,010
I'll give you an example. If you look at
3354
02:17:53,280 --> 02:17:56,310
the stock averages, okay. And the idea
3355
02:17:56,340 --> 02:17:58,110
behind the SMT really comes from the Dow
3356
02:17:58,110 --> 02:18:00,450
Theory, okay, there's really no magic It
3357
02:18:00,450 --> 02:18:01,860
says I just use something I understood
3358
02:18:01,860 --> 02:18:04,200
very clearly with the Dow. And it was
3359
02:18:04,200 --> 02:18:07,560
really amplified with Larry Williams,
3360
02:18:08,010 --> 02:18:10,980
how to select stocks for immediate
3361
02:18:10,980 --> 02:18:13,710
gains. But the real book, okay, the only
3362
02:18:13,710 --> 02:18:15,210
thing that was useful in the book to me
3363
02:18:15,210 --> 02:18:17,820
was how he looked at when the Dow made,
3364
02:18:18,420 --> 02:18:21,570
you know, a lower low, but stocks didn't
3365
02:18:21,570 --> 02:18:23,730
make a lower low. And then once the
3366
02:18:23,730 --> 02:18:25,140
stock market as a whole sort of trade
3367
02:18:25,140 --> 02:18:27,750
higher, the ones the issues that didn't
3368
02:18:27,750 --> 02:18:29,160
make lower lows, they're the ones that
3369
02:18:29,160 --> 02:18:31,260
smart money was accumulating. Otherwise,
3370
02:18:31,290 --> 02:18:33,180
they would have made lower lows too, but
3371
02:18:33,180 --> 02:18:34,440
they didn't they were being a chameleon.
3372
02:18:34,770 --> 02:18:37,170
So I use that premise, along with the
3373
02:18:37,170 --> 02:18:39,270
whole general premise behind Dow Theory.
3374
02:18:40,680 --> 02:18:42,420
The averages should confirm themselves,
3375
02:18:42,570 --> 02:18:44,550
okay. And when they don't confirm
3376
02:18:44,550 --> 02:18:47,490
themselves, that is a telltale sign that
3377
02:18:47,490 --> 02:18:48,810
there's someone with a lot more money
3378
02:18:48,810 --> 02:18:51,300
than us working behind the scenes, okay.
3379
02:18:51,300 --> 02:18:52,830
So you can see the underpinnings of the
3380
02:18:52,830 --> 02:18:55,560
market on the Smart Money basis that no
3381
02:18:55,560 --> 02:18:59,400
one talks about, okay. So where this
3382
02:18:59,400 --> 02:19:02,010
phenomenon takes Place is every quarter,
3383
02:19:02,070 --> 02:19:03,990
there's a shift in institutional flows.
3384
02:19:04,470 --> 02:19:08,070
And by using old highs and lows, okay,
3385
02:19:08,100 --> 02:19:10,680
focusing in on SMT divergence on a daily
3386
02:19:10,680 --> 02:19:13,800
chart, we'll figure it out many of the
3387
02:19:13,800 --> 02:19:15,900
trade scenarios that you're looking for,
3388
02:19:16,110 --> 02:19:18,480
okay, you want to sizable price links to
3389
02:19:18,480 --> 02:19:20,310
work inside of whether you're scalper
3390
02:19:20,310 --> 02:19:21,660
day trader, swing trader, short term
3391
02:19:21,660 --> 02:19:24,690
trader or looking to position a long
3392
02:19:24,690 --> 02:19:27,960
term trade. This is how it's done. Okay,
3393
02:19:28,230 --> 02:19:29,910
you're going to use market structure.
3394
02:19:30,330 --> 02:19:31,830
And you're going to be referencing swing
3395
02:19:31,830 --> 02:19:33,990
point analysis, you're going to just use
3396
02:19:33,990 --> 02:19:35,490
simply the optimal trade entry for your
3397
02:19:35,490 --> 02:19:37,920
strategy to get in the trade. But you're
3398
02:19:37,920 --> 02:19:39,390
gonna use swing projection for your
3399
02:19:39,390 --> 02:19:40,920
profit objectives and determine where
3400
02:19:40,920 --> 02:19:41,670
you're gonna get out at.
3401
02:19:45,090 --> 02:19:47,040
All right, SMT swings on a daily chart,
3402
02:19:47,070 --> 02:19:48,360
what is it? What does it look like?
3403
02:19:48,510 --> 02:19:51,510
Well, we're gonna say for instance, that
3404
02:19:51,510 --> 02:19:55,380
this is the dollar, okay? The green
3405
02:19:55,380 --> 02:19:57,720
represents the greenback, okay? And
3406
02:19:57,720 --> 02:19:58,650
we're going to say that the red
3407
02:19:58,650 --> 02:20:03,000
represents the British pound or cable.
3408
02:20:03,780 --> 02:20:05,280
Now the problem with this is going to be
3409
02:20:05,280 --> 02:20:09,510
this because there's an inversion, okay?
3410
02:20:10,380 --> 02:20:13,260
Ideally, if the dollar is rallying,
3411
02:20:13,680 --> 02:20:15,690
British Pound USD will be declining.
3412
02:20:16,170 --> 02:20:17,610
That's the mechanics behind it all.
3413
02:20:17,610 --> 02:20:20,970
That's usually what you see. For us to
3414
02:20:20,970 --> 02:20:23,850
see how this works easily, and it's
3415
02:20:23,850 --> 02:20:26,670
easier for your eye, okay? You have to
3416
02:20:26,670 --> 02:20:28,500
have a way of inverting one or the
3417
02:20:28,500 --> 02:20:30,990
other, either invert the dollar, or you
3418
02:20:30,990 --> 02:20:32,580
have to invert the cable. In other
3419
02:20:32,580 --> 02:20:33,870
words, you're gonna have to mirror one
3420
02:20:33,900 --> 02:20:35,340
so that way there'll be moving in
3421
02:20:35,340 --> 02:20:38,190
tandem. Okay. And the insight is going
3422
02:20:38,190 --> 02:20:40,260
to be gleaned by looking for periods of
3423
02:20:40,260 --> 02:20:43,590
when price between the two. Okay, you
3424
02:20:43,590 --> 02:20:45,870
see how the red again obviously we're
3425
02:20:45,930 --> 02:20:48,510
using as an example of being the cable
3426
02:20:48,840 --> 02:20:51,390
was able to make a lower low here. The
3427
02:20:51,390 --> 02:20:53,670
dollar was not willing to make a lower
3428
02:20:53,670 --> 02:20:57,180
low. That is SMT diversions. That is a
3429
02:20:57,270 --> 02:20:59,970
it's a cracking correlation. They should
3430
02:21:00,000 --> 02:21:02,850
have made comparable lows, see how they
3431
02:21:02,850 --> 02:21:05,520
were trading together lower here, both
3432
02:21:05,520 --> 02:21:08,520
declining rate in here, the dollar was
3433
02:21:08,520 --> 02:21:11,640
saying I'm not going lower. Okay when
3434
02:21:11,640 --> 02:21:14,280
the cable, okay, we're assuming it's
3435
02:21:14,280 --> 02:21:15,870
being mirrored here, this would have
3436
02:21:15,870 --> 02:21:19,770
been the cable making a higher high and
3437
02:21:19,770 --> 02:21:20,940
then maybe a little bit confusing. So
3438
02:21:20,940 --> 02:21:21,930
this is the reason I got to watch the
3439
02:21:21,930 --> 02:21:24,420
video several times. But if the dollar
3440
02:21:24,420 --> 02:21:26,940
makes a failure swing to go lower when a
3441
02:21:26,940 --> 02:21:28,350
cable makes a higher high or in this
3442
02:21:28,350 --> 02:21:30,450
case if we mirrored to if it makes a
3443
02:21:30,450 --> 02:21:32,880
lower low, that's an s&p divergence,
3444
02:21:32,910 --> 02:21:34,560
that's a crack and correlation and
3445
02:21:34,560 --> 02:21:36,240
expect to see a major move the other
3446
02:21:36,240 --> 02:21:40,230
way. Okay. Same thing happening here. We
3447
02:21:40,230 --> 02:21:44,340
have price making a low, lower low in
3448
02:21:44,340 --> 02:21:47,670
here and the cable was not making
3449
02:21:47,670 --> 02:21:49,170
comparable low it was actually a little
3450
02:21:49,170 --> 02:21:50,970
bit higher and here we have a divergence
3451
02:21:51,030 --> 02:21:53,670
SMT divergence. We also see that same
3452
02:21:53,670 --> 02:21:55,830
thing happening on a larger scale see
3453
02:21:55,830 --> 02:21:58,860
this low comparable to this low. This
3454
02:21:58,860 --> 02:22:01,920
low represents this The cable went lower
3455
02:22:01,920 --> 02:22:04,320
here, the dollar was not willing to do
3456
02:22:04,320 --> 02:22:06,960
so. Now you see a price swing. Okay,
3457
02:22:07,530 --> 02:22:10,290
price moves higher here in the cable was
3458
02:22:10,290 --> 02:22:12,720
unable to do it here. Okay now when I
3459
02:22:12,720 --> 02:22:14,430
say higher here's a cable again, this is
3460
02:22:14,430 --> 02:22:16,050
assuming it's being mirrored like it is.
3461
02:22:16,380 --> 02:22:18,570
So this would be a lower low when $1
3462
02:22:18,570 --> 02:22:21,840
made a failure swing to go higher. Okay?
3463
02:22:22,170 --> 02:22:23,760
And I know it's a little bit confusing,
3464
02:22:23,760 --> 02:22:27,420
but basically a higher high end dollar
3465
02:22:27,420 --> 02:22:28,830
should be met with a lower low and
3466
02:22:28,830 --> 02:22:33,840
cable, a lower, low and $1 should be met
3467
02:22:33,840 --> 02:22:35,880
with a higher high and cable, okay, so
3468
02:22:36,120 --> 02:22:39,270
that every low and high should be equal
3469
02:22:39,300 --> 02:22:42,300
in terms of breaking to higher or lower
3470
02:22:42,390 --> 02:22:44,640
ground between the two. If you don't see
3471
02:22:44,640 --> 02:22:47,130
that happening. There's a break in
3472
02:22:47,130 --> 02:22:49,590
correlation. Okay, you see the high
3473
02:22:49,590 --> 02:22:51,690
here. We need a higher high here in the
3474
02:22:51,690 --> 02:22:53,970
dollar. Look what was going on here.
3475
02:22:54,120 --> 02:22:56,280
Again, this would be the cable mirrored
3476
02:22:56,310 --> 02:22:58,530
so this would be lows in the cable. The
3477
02:22:58,530 --> 02:23:00,750
cable was unwilling to make a lower Low
3478
02:23:00,780 --> 02:23:01,980
or in this case, since it's being
3479
02:23:01,980 --> 02:23:03,750
mirrored, it was unable to make a higher
3480
02:23:03,750 --> 02:23:06,390
high when the dollar was able to make a
3481
02:23:06,390 --> 02:23:08,130
higher high. So what does that saying?
3482
02:23:08,850 --> 02:23:10,620
that while the dial dollar was able to
3483
02:23:10,620 --> 02:23:12,780
rally, the cable was actually being
3484
02:23:12,780 --> 02:23:15,420
distributed Smart Money was selling that
3485
02:23:15,420 --> 02:23:17,460
whole thing right here. Every time it
3486
02:23:17,460 --> 02:23:18,660
was making a rally, they were selling
3487
02:23:18,660 --> 02:23:23,400
aggressively, and then boom. Okay, I
3488
02:23:23,400 --> 02:23:24,570
said that wrong I just realized that
3489
02:23:24,570 --> 02:23:26,490
this would be actually buying the cable
3490
02:23:26,490 --> 02:23:28,050
because it's inverted. So they were
3491
02:23:28,170 --> 02:23:30,300
unwilling to go lower in the cable
3492
02:23:31,050 --> 02:23:32,790
graphically depicted here as not being
3493
02:23:32,790 --> 02:23:35,580
able to go higher. So the dollar when it
3494
02:23:35,580 --> 02:23:36,930
starts to sell off, we'll see an
3495
02:23:36,930 --> 02:23:39,180
extrapolated move on the cable going
3496
02:23:39,180 --> 02:23:40,710
higher because it was unmake unwilling
3497
02:23:40,710 --> 02:23:43,080
to make a lower low. So again, this high
3498
02:23:43,500 --> 02:23:46,020
too high on the dollar was higher. That
3499
02:23:46,020 --> 02:23:48,090
should have been met with a low and a
3500
02:23:48,090 --> 02:23:51,210
lower low in the cable here. Can again
3501
02:23:51,210 --> 02:23:53,070
this is mirrored Okay, this is actually
3502
02:23:53,370 --> 02:23:55,380
this whole price action here should be
3503
02:23:55,380 --> 02:23:58,410
reversed. But for us to compare highs,
3504
02:23:58,410 --> 02:23:59,640
the highs and lows lows you have to
3505
02:23:59,640 --> 02:24:01,530
mirror one One or the other. Now I used
3506
02:24:01,530 --> 02:24:03,240
to teach it where I didn't mirror it.
3507
02:24:03,480 --> 02:24:05,520
And it just was so confusing for a lot
3508
02:24:05,520 --> 02:24:07,020
of folks that just, it was very
3509
02:24:07,020 --> 02:24:08,640
frustrating for him. And this is
3510
02:24:08,640 --> 02:24:10,170
probably don't say anything to some of
3511
02:24:10,170 --> 02:24:11,670
you now watching it, you're thinking,
3512
02:24:11,670 --> 02:24:13,020
Man, I thought I understood it. Now I
3513
02:24:13,020 --> 02:24:14,730
don't, it's really not that hard of a
3514
02:24:14,760 --> 02:24:17,400
concept. Once again, watch the video
3515
02:24:17,400 --> 02:24:18,420
several times, you'll get what I'm
3516
02:24:18,420 --> 02:24:19,590
talking about, when we see the examples,
3517
02:24:19,590 --> 02:24:21,690
you'll make much, much more sense. The
3518
02:24:21,690 --> 02:24:23,820
dollar here failed to make a lower low
3519
02:24:24,150 --> 02:24:27,750
when the cable on this chart here made
3520
02:24:27,750 --> 02:24:28,950
lower lows, which would have been higher
3521
02:24:28,950 --> 02:24:32,010
high in actual price of cable cracking,
3522
02:24:32,010 --> 02:24:33,720
correlation, expected price pricing to
3523
02:24:33,720 --> 02:24:36,840
the upside. And really, that's all
3524
02:24:36,840 --> 02:24:37,590
you're looking for
3525
02:24:37,650 --> 02:24:40,260
every three months or so, inside of
3526
02:24:40,290 --> 02:24:41,700
inside of three months, there's going to
3527
02:24:41,700 --> 02:24:44,190
be a crack in the in correlation. And
3528
02:24:44,190 --> 02:24:46,710
all you're doing is looking to find that
3529
02:24:46,710 --> 02:24:48,900
scenario, that selection tool, okay?
3530
02:24:48,900 --> 02:24:51,120
It's not a timing tool. It's a selection
3531
02:24:51,120 --> 02:24:52,830
tool. You're looking at the daily chart
3532
02:24:52,830 --> 02:24:54,750
to frame the idea that there should be
3533
02:24:54,810 --> 02:24:56,640
institutional sponsorship on the buy
3534
02:24:56,640 --> 02:24:59,520
side or the sell side and by seeing that
3535
02:24:59,700 --> 02:25:01,350
you get yourself in sync with looking
3536
02:25:01,350 --> 02:25:05,430
for the anticipate anticipatory move of
3537
02:25:05,430 --> 02:25:08,280
price going lower or higher based on
3538
02:25:08,280 --> 02:25:09,780
this insight and then using intraday
3539
02:25:09,780 --> 02:25:12,900
entries and price patterns around that
3540
02:25:12,930 --> 02:25:19,080
or with support resistance. Now,
3541
02:25:19,170 --> 02:25:21,180
assuming we have the scenario where
3542
02:25:21,240 --> 02:25:23,850
price has now set up a SMT divergence on
3543
02:25:23,850 --> 02:25:28,860
a bear's side of things. Well, you would
3544
02:25:28,860 --> 02:25:31,440
expect price to rally up into a level of
3545
02:25:31,440 --> 02:25:33,540
higher timeframe resistance what is that
3546
02:25:33,930 --> 02:25:35,790
as a monthly resistance, a weekly
3547
02:25:35,790 --> 02:25:37,860
resistance or daily resistance okay.
3548
02:25:40,560 --> 02:25:42,570
Once price shows a clear indication that
3549
02:25:42,570 --> 02:25:44,460
is wanting to move away from that
3550
02:25:44,460 --> 02:25:46,530
resistance level. Now you have a
3551
02:25:46,530 --> 02:25:51,540
commitment on the smart money. They know
3552
02:25:52,170 --> 02:25:54,090
if you're looking at this, think about
3553
02:25:54,090 --> 02:25:55,890
it. Graphically this would look like a
3554
02:25:55,890 --> 02:25:58,230
retracement for a buy. If you're just
3555
02:25:58,230 --> 02:26:00,870
looking at price and Thinking without
3556
02:26:00,870 --> 02:26:02,940
higher timeframe premise in mind, if
3557
02:26:02,970 --> 02:26:05,130
overall premise was bearish, this would
3558
02:26:05,130 --> 02:26:07,050
look like a buy signal. And I just, I
3559
02:26:07,050 --> 02:26:09,210
just gave this example. At the time of
3560
02:26:09,210 --> 02:26:10,470
this recording the previous week of this
3561
02:26:10,470 --> 02:26:12,330
recording, I gave examples of how the
3562
02:26:12,330 --> 02:26:14,970
charts looked like by scenarios when it
3563
02:26:14,970 --> 02:26:17,310
was still underneath institutional sell.
3564
02:26:18,270 --> 02:26:19,530
But this is what you're looking for, you
3565
02:26:19,530 --> 02:26:21,330
want to see it break down and start to
3566
02:26:21,330 --> 02:26:22,890
rally back up to that resistance level.
3567
02:26:23,070 --> 02:26:24,900
When it does that, that's where you sell
3568
02:26:24,900 --> 02:26:27,780
it. Damn, once you enter the short you
3569
02:26:27,780 --> 02:26:30,510
want to see the market break down and
3570
02:26:30,510 --> 02:26:33,480
take out the previous swing lows once
3571
02:26:33,480 --> 02:26:35,790
that thing breaks that low. Now you're
3572
02:26:35,790 --> 02:26:37,620
going to be looking for that A to B to C
3573
02:26:37,620 --> 02:26:41,550
to D. Measured move phenomenon, okay?
3574
02:26:41,820 --> 02:26:42,990
And what will happen is there'll be a
3575
02:26:42,990 --> 02:26:45,540
retracement of some sort. Very soon
3576
02:26:45,540 --> 02:26:48,870
after that inside of this retracement,
3577
02:26:49,080 --> 02:26:51,450
it could come back to the old low or
3578
02:26:51,690 --> 02:26:53,310
what you're looking for is you want to
3579
02:26:53,310 --> 02:26:55,950
see that stop running event. You want to
3580
02:26:55,950 --> 02:26:58,530
see a short term high in here that's ran
3581
02:26:58,530 --> 02:27:00,630
out. Okay, that's really nice. Clearly
3582
02:27:00,630 --> 02:27:02,700
soon in this one, I'm really graphically
3583
02:27:03,960 --> 02:27:05,790
oversimplifying this, I'm afraid but
3584
02:27:05,940 --> 02:27:08,730
inside of this rally in here, okay, this
3585
02:27:08,730 --> 02:27:10,440
would be a period of time, that would
3586
02:27:10,470 --> 02:27:13,860
encapsulate a previous swing high that
3587
02:27:13,890 --> 02:27:16,470
eventually ran again, once it does that,
3588
02:27:16,710 --> 02:27:18,150
that's the stop rate that you want to
3589
02:27:18,150 --> 02:27:20,340
see. And that's when the big move starts
3590
02:27:20,340 --> 02:27:22,260
to take place and runs down and you have
3591
02:27:22,260 --> 02:27:24,060
the measured move phenomenon or to A to
3592
02:27:24,060 --> 02:27:29,520
B to C to D extensions. When you when
3593
02:27:29,520 --> 02:27:32,790
you have that measured move of this low
3594
02:27:33,090 --> 02:27:35,280
to high that range projected from this
3595
02:27:35,280 --> 02:27:38,010
low down, that's one objective, or you
3596
02:27:38,010 --> 02:27:40,650
can take the range of this low to high
3597
02:27:40,650 --> 02:27:46,680
and do a 127 extension here, or 1.618 or
3598
02:27:46,680 --> 02:27:48,870
1.62 extension. That's how I just
3599
02:27:48,870 --> 02:27:52,080
rounded up. use that example. Okay, and
3600
02:27:52,080 --> 02:27:54,810
couple that with the A to B to C to the
3601
02:27:54,840 --> 02:27:58,110
extension, harmonically and that is the
3602
02:27:58,110 --> 02:28:01,080
easiest way that you can Get in sync
3603
02:28:01,110 --> 02:28:02,640
with the trend trade with the
3604
02:28:02,640 --> 02:28:05,010
commercials with the Smart Money trade
3605
02:28:05,010 --> 02:28:07,920
with a pattern based method using
3606
02:28:07,920 --> 02:28:09,930
support resistance only higher timeframe
3607
02:28:10,080 --> 02:28:12,120
monthly, weekly and daily support
3608
02:28:12,120 --> 02:28:14,280
resistance levels in mind. Many times
3609
02:28:14,280 --> 02:28:16,290
what will happen is this area here will
3610
02:28:16,290 --> 02:28:18,090
be an order block over here this high
3611
02:28:18,090 --> 02:28:19,740
it's not been depicted here, this will
3612
02:28:19,740 --> 02:28:21,210
be a bearish order block and price will
3613
02:28:21,210 --> 02:28:22,890
return right back into that area and
3614
02:28:22,890 --> 02:28:25,590
sell off again. Okay. And that's really
3615
02:28:25,620 --> 02:28:28,800
the that's the basis for building a very
3616
02:28:29,430 --> 02:28:32,310
sound approach to higher timeframe
3617
02:28:32,310 --> 02:28:35,040
trading. And once you understand how
3618
02:28:35,040 --> 02:28:37,560
this is done, all the intraday action of
3619
02:28:37,560 --> 02:28:39,660
selling in a down day. That's all this
3620
02:28:39,660 --> 02:28:41,250
is same thing being applied on an
3621
02:28:41,250 --> 02:28:45,360
intraday basis. What will happen
3622
02:28:45,360 --> 02:28:46,290
eventually is you'll go into
3623
02:28:46,290 --> 02:28:47,790
consolidation and everyone will now
3624
02:28:47,790 --> 02:28:49,530
start chasing the move lower, but the
3625
02:28:49,530 --> 02:28:50,550
moves already happened and you've
3626
02:28:50,550 --> 02:28:51,420
already profited.