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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-11-20 16:05
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3 ICT: Okay folks, this teaching is going to be specifically
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7 dealing with higher timeframe concepts.
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11 Okay, points in focus this module
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15 we're gonna be talking about key levels what makes a key
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19 level
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23 price rejections
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27 Alright, so key levels
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31 we're gonna be looking at yearly highs and lows. That means
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35 the last 12 months and this is a rolling calendar, not a
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39 specific January to December type phenomenon. So whatever
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43 today is go back 12 months and we'll see what the yearly
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47 high and the low is
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51 respective to those points.
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55 Okay monthly highs and lows
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59 And finally weekly highs and lows. So what we're looking for
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63 is the long term macro yearly highs and low the quarterly
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67 monthly highs and lows and the individual monthly highs and
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71 lows and the weekly highs and lows. Now what do I mean by
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75 weekly highs and lows, we're going to look back last week's
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79 high low, very simple, nothing high and low. We're gonna
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83 look at the last three months high and low. And we'll look
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87 at just the last 30 days or whatever the previous month is.
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91 It's high as time as low as low and nearly again is a
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95 rolling calendar from whatever today is go back 12 months,
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99 whatever the highest high and the lowest level is. We'll use
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103 that as a reference point.
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107 Okay, price rejections.
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111 double top sweeps that means when we see price action,
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115 creating very clean Equal highs or relatively equal highs.
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119 Were expecting that phenomenon to take place where price
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123 will drive above those equal highs, reject and trade lower.
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127 double bottom sweeps. In other words, this reverse what I
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131 just said, anytime on the price action, we see equal lows
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135 form, we would anticipate should price trade back down to
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139 that level or close to it, it would sweep below it, run the
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143 sell fast below the equal lows and then reject and go
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147 higher. In a simple run on old lows, that means running out
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151 a previous low and then rejecting that
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155 and going higher.
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159 And then runs on old highs which is the obvious reverse what
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163 I just mentioned in lows and old high gets traded through
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167 false breakout and then returns back into the range trade in
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171 the opposite direction.
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175 So I want to think
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179 kind of a field trip if you will, through price action.
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183 We're gonna go through the majors tonight. I want to talk
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187 about some Things that I think that a new trader should be
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191 focusing on, and how to use some of these things to
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195 formulate an idea or understanding to build Foundation, and
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199 then start building on that with more than concepts I'll be
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203 teaching in my continuing series. Okay, folks, we're looking
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207 at $1 chart, this is the daily
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211 and
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215 when we sit down, beginner analysis, these for higher
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219 timeframe standpoint, this teaching is going to be really
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223 aimed at those individuals that cannot do a whole lot of
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227 intraday charting, or trading or day trading or scalping. So
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231 claim analysis concepts, when an individual that has that
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235 limitation
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239 has that limitation,
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243 what is available in terms of analysis, or techniques that
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247 we can more or less ferret out an opportunity to practice
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251 with our demo account. So what I like to do is number one, I
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255 dislike Through all the majors, but I'll begin with the
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259 dollar index and from $1 daily, okay, we can see that we
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263 have been trading lower. there since around August, we've
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267 been consolidating and gone sideways. Now, the prevailing
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271 trend has been down for the entire year on the dollar. And
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275 we created a rather significant low here. And we've rallied
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279 up so we've broken this high. Since this happened, we've
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283 been consolidating sideways but also notice that we have
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287 traded below this low and we've been inching higher. So
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291 using the things that I mentioned on the beginning of the
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295 video, we look for relatively obvious support resistance
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299 levels. Okay. Long term yearly highs and lows, monthly highs
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303 and lows quarterly highs and lows. In previous weeks highs
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307 and low, I'm not going to draw all those levels on here.
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311 I'm not gonna draw this on there, because this could turn
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315 into a four hour video. And it's really not essential. You
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319 can go through the charts and do that. And I'll do it with
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323 one chart in this presentation. Real quick. But the, the
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327 idea is first and foremost, you want to see where are we
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331 trading right now? Are we in a trending model? Or are we in
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335 a trading range market? Right now we're in a range bound
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339 market or potentially be a reversal. If we look at the
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343 trend, it's been lower, we have potential reversal point
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347 down here, and we've gone sideways. So what could eventually
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351 happen is we could shoot higher and aim for these equal
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355 highs.
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359 Or we could roll right over
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363 and make an attempt to go lower and retest this low or try
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367 to Trade down to it and fail.
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371 Okay, we don't know that.
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375 So but you don't need to know that. So the question I get a
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379 lot is, well, how do I know if it's not gonna go below this
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383 low if it wasn't stopped or if it goes through and
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387 continues? Well, you have to figure out where the market is
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391 right now. And if you believe it's going to go down there
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395 that offers up a range. So you look for opportunities
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399 between where you think it is right now if you think is
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403 going to go down to that low. That's your opportunity. Okay,
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407 it's your range of potential profit. But as it is here, I
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411 like to look at what was the most recent
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415 run on liquidity.
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419 Most recently, we've had it trade above this high and we
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423 sold off a little bit and then we came right back, roaring
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427 higher, trying to maybe run through these equal highs again
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431 and if we do that, we may be reaching for these equal highs.
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435 Notice also the Low was traded through with this low.
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439 So we've already tried to go lower below this low and it
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443 rejected it handsomely. We tried to go above this high here,
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447 try to sell off but quickly came back. Now this could still
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451 roll over and go lower. But right now we're at a crossroads
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455 where if it goes any higher from here and also we trade up
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459 above these equal highs that may warrant a run to these
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463 equal highs. And if it does that, that may be a precursor to
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467 a run even higher, okay? Or because the time of the year
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471 we're at the end of 2017, we're late in the month of
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475 December. This thing could just go sideways, between the
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479 high and the low defined here and just stay at equilibrium.
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483 Now the things you'll learn with experience is there are
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487 certain times a year when the market is predisposed to do
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491 certain things certain times a year as opposed to trends.
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495 certain times a year because of the consolidation, right
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499 now, typically we're in a consolidation time. Okay? If you
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503 look back at the previous years, okay, we have a market
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507 trending prior to it, and then went into consolidation. Then
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511 around March, we start trending down to around August or
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515 September, then it goes into some consolidation again.
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519 So the idea of profiling
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523 i think is beneficial for you, especially if you're looking
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527 at higher timeframe charts. But the main thing I want you to
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531 take away from this presentation is even though you're not
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535 looking at lower timeframes, you're not scalping or day
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539 trading. Those same price action concepts. Still applying
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543 because prices fractal, that means the things that we would
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547 see and expect to see unfold in lower timeframes. Just not
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551 tied to any real time element you would still expect same
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555 phenomenon took her on higher timeframe charts like the
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559 daily.
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563 If we go to the euro dollar
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567 you can see the opposite has happened. Because market has
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571 trended higher as the dollar index itself traded lower.
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575 We've seen the market trade sideways as we saw on the dollar
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579 index. Now, again, let's take a look at some ideas here.
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583 We've had a high, traded through it broke down, took out
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587 that swing low, traded back up in here, broke it. Now we
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591 broke this high, you tried to go higher. And now we're
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595 seeing like equal lows.
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599 We had these lows
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603 taken with this low. So again, same scenario, we could be
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607 stuck in this range for the remainder of December. If I were
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611 a betting man, and forcing myself to take a trade where
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615 we're at right now, I would have left expected to trade
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619 lower now, will it run through these relatively equal lows?
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623 Well, it looks a little bit cleaner for that they occur in
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627 opposite direction with the dollar index because it equal
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631 highs up here and the market could in fact try to trade
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635 above these equal highs and reach for that
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639 on the Euro
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643 we have a slightly lower low comparable to this low, but
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647 nonetheless we could be overall retracing now why would that
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651 be most likely to occur and not higher is because we've had
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655 the market move one direction all year long. Then we went
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659 consolidation and we broke above this high here should have
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663 ran higher but now we keep breaking a low. Okay, so any
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667 further movement below these equal lows, I would see that as
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671 momentum building to make an attempt to get below these lows
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675 here. Now how much further below that we'd have to weigh
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679 that out in At the time, but for now, I would anticipate
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683 because of the time of year we're in late December, the
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687 markets already moved. We're kind of like long in the tooth
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691 if you will for that move. It would be reasonable or healthy
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695 expected to have some measure of retracement now if it
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699 trades above this high, then we would be aiming for these
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703 highs to be taken out and probably a measured move something
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707 like this low to this high, add that range this low and you
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711 would get some kind of projection. Okay. But right now I'm
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715 thinking neutral to bearish on the euro dollar cable. We've
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719 had a nice uptrending market here. And this one had an
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723 ability to get above and outside of this range in here. And
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727 we traded up into almost this swing high been taken out. But
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731 this is actually a very difficult market to be in right now.
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735 It's not Clear, it's not obvious as to what it would want to
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739 do. So even though we've had a nice move earlier this year,
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743 we've gone into a condition where it's highly suspect in
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747 terms of what would be the most likely or probable
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751 direction, it's going to move next. Now, this looks like a
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755 classic chart pattern where folks would probably see that as
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759 maybe a bull flag and maybe continuation upside. But
760
761 191
762 00:12:25,800 ~-~-> 00:12:28,500
763 thinking about what I showed you in $1 index that kind of
764
765 192
766 00:12:28,500 ~-~-> 00:12:32,550
767 like negates This doesn't mean it can't spike up air and do
768
769 193
770 00:12:32,550 ~-~-> 00:12:36,750
771 whatever it wants to do, and run against the scenario with
772
773 194
774 00:12:36,750 ~-~-> 00:12:40,800
775 the dollar index. For now, I just think that we may end up
776
777 195
778 00:12:40,800 ~-~-> 00:12:43,740
779 seeing this thing go sideways still, or try to make an
780
781 196
782 00:12:43,740 ~-~-> 00:12:46,590
783 attempt to go back below these equal lows here, because
784
785 197
786 00:12:46,590 ~-~-> 00:12:48,750
787 we've already cleared out the equal highs, spend some time
788
789 198
790 00:12:48,750 ~-~-> 00:12:53,430
791 up here, no follow through yet. But if we trade down and
792
793 199
794 00:12:53,430 ~-~-> 00:12:56,700
795 break the middle of this range, to find by this high this
796
797 200
798 00:12:56,700 ~-~-> 00:13:01,770
799 low, if we go back below that, okay? Easiest way to do if we
800
801 201
802 00:13:01,770 ~-~-> 00:13:04,500
803 get below this swing low. I think that would be fair enough.
804
805 202
806 00:13:04,500 ~-~-> 00:13:07,620
807 If we break that low, would say price, try to make an
808
809 203
810 00:13:07,620 ~-~-> 00:13:10,170
811 attempt to get down below here to get these get these double
812
813 204
814 00:13:10,170 ~-~-> 00:13:13,710
815 bottoms. Okay, so we would expect a double bottom sweep on
816
817 205
818 00:13:13,710 ~-~-> 00:13:16,380
819 liquidity here, because you've already seen a double top
820
821 206
822 00:13:16,380 ~-~-> 00:13:22,650
823 sweep here. And we were in uncertain conditions for cable
824
825 207
826 00:13:22,680 ~-~-> 00:13:25,410
827 Why? Because the dollar looks like it wants to go higher.
828
829 208
830 00:13:25,800 ~-~-> 00:13:29,040
831 And even though the cable can go higher in that environment
832
833 209
834 00:13:29,040 ~-~-> 00:13:34,080
835 because of some fundamental factor that I don't know about
836
837 210
838 00:13:34,080 ~-~-> 00:13:37,860
839 and it could happen, and that's the risk we have in trading
840
841 211
842 00:13:37,860 ~-~-> 00:13:41,040
843 as well. We have to have stop losses and such. But I don't
844
845 212
846 00:13:41,040 ~-~-> 00:13:44,370
847 see that that's likely to occur, given the conditions in the
848
849 213
850 00:13:44,370 ~-~-> 00:13:49,380
851 marketplace here. So this pair I wouldn't touch but if I had
852
853 214
854 00:13:49,380 ~-~-> 00:13:52,260
855 a gun to my head, I would be reaching for these equal lows
856
857 215
858 00:13:52,290 ~-~-> 00:13:55,110
859 because of the dollar bullishness as outlined in beginning
860
861 216
862 00:13:55,110 ~-~-> 00:14:02,100
863 the video. Aussie dollar this mark has gone back into the
864
865 217
866 00:14:02,100 ~-~-> 00:14:04,200
867 middle of the range. It doesn't have any real clear
868
869 218
870 00:14:04,200 ~-~-> 00:14:10,050
871 direction. We've had a move up, retracement move up and now
872
873 219
874 00:14:10,050 ~-~-> 00:14:12,600
875 we retraced we're since the in the middle of the range.
876
877 220
878 00:14:14,130 ~-~-> 00:14:18,120
879 Okay, so in terms of trading, this would probably be a good
880
881 221
882 00:14:18,120 ~-~-> 00:14:23,130
883 day trading pair. But it's a short term trading or a swing
884
885 222
886 00:14:23,130 ~-~-> 00:14:27,120
887 trading. I wouldn't touch this one here. Why? Because it
888
889 223
890 00:14:27,120 ~-~-> 00:14:30,000
891 doesn't have a defined movement. And it's made an attempt to
892
893 224
894 00:14:30,000 ~-~-> 00:14:33,090
895 get quickly back in the equilibrium or the middle of the
896
897 225
898 00:14:33,090 ~-~-> 00:14:37,170
899 range and the range is defined. Number one, buy this low to
900
901 226
902 00:14:37,170 ~-~-> 00:14:39,060
903 this high and we're smack dab right in the middle of it
904
905 227
906 00:14:39,060 ~-~-> 00:14:43,290
907 right now. We tried to go lower. But this run here, we've
908
909 228
910 00:14:43,290 ~-~-> 00:14:47,130
911 outlined this in a previous video with SMT. Smart Money
912
913 229
914 00:14:47,430 ~-~-> 00:14:51,570
915 technique and we've rallied up taking out clean highs. Now
916
917 230
918 00:14:51,570 ~-~-> 00:14:54,450
919 it's uncertain as to where it wants to go. So the move is
920
921 231
922 00:14:54,450 ~-~-> 00:14:57,360
923 done for Aussie dollar and we would have to wait for a new
924
925 232
926 00:14:57,360 ~-~-> 00:15:01,440
927 setup. So the uncertainty and consolidation nature of this
928
929 233
930 00:15:01,440 ~-~-> 00:15:04,020
931 pair would keep me on the sidelines, I wouldn't worry about
932
933 234
934 00:15:04,050 ~-~-> 00:15:10,920
935 trading this one. New Zealand dollar is very similar. We
936
937 235
938 00:15:10,920 ~-~-> 00:15:12,090
939 would be looking for
940
941 236
942 00:15:14,820 ~-~-> 00:15:17,490
943 similar conditions like what would the Aussie dollar but for
944
945 237
946 00:15:17,490 ~-~-> 00:15:20,340
947 this pair, it looks even worse, because we've had an attempt
948
949 238
950 00:15:20,340 ~-~-> 00:15:23,520
951 to go lower, lower, lower lower, every low has been taken
952
953 239
954 00:15:23,520 ~-~-> 00:15:27,540
955 out. And we don't have any kind of clear defined market
956
957 240
958 00:15:27,540 ~-~-> 00:15:28,800
959 structure in here to work with.
960
961 241
962 00:15:29,430 ~-~-> 00:15:29,940
963 So
964
965 242
966 00:15:30,780 ~-~-> 00:15:33,450
967 it best we probably see it returned back to this low here.
968
969 243
970 00:15:33,780 ~-~-> 00:15:37,260
971 And what happens at that at it's anybody's guess. So there's
972
973 244
974 00:15:37,260 ~-~-> 00:15:41,220
975 no real clear market structure here to frame analysis on.
976
977 245
978 00:15:41,460 ~-~-> 00:15:44,640
979 Whereas what we saw with the dollar index and on the Euro,
980
981 246
982 00:15:45,120 ~-~-> 00:15:48,600
983 there's potential there. So there's clarity in euro dollar,
984
985 247
986 00:15:48,900 ~-~-> 00:15:52,560
987 wanting to potentially go lower, and dollar going higher.
988
989 248
990 00:15:52,680 ~-~-> 00:15:55,170
991 Every other pair we've looked at so far is uncertain.
992
993 249
994 00:15:57,060 ~-~-> 00:15:57,930
995 dollar CAD,
996
997 250
998 00:15:59,340 ~-~-> 00:16:03,450
999 we've had an intense Trade lower below this low progressive
1000
1001 251
1002 00:16:03,810 ~-~-> 00:16:07,230
1003 and then it came back roaring higher, eventually taking out
1004
1005 252
1006 00:16:07,230 ~-~-> 00:16:10,500
1007 this swing high had a retracement nice optimal trade entry
1008
1009 253
1010 00:16:10,500 ~-~-> 00:16:14,010
1011 long in here. And we also have a consolidation. So it looks
1012
1013 254
1014 00:16:14,010 ~-~-> 00:16:18,780
1015 like we could be another leg higher on dollar CAD, if not
1016
1017 255
1018 00:16:18,780 ~-~-> 00:16:23,430
1019 for anything else. I run on these double tops. So double top
1020
1021 256
1022 00:16:23,490 ~-~-> 00:16:29,610
1023 sweep look for that. Tucker. We've already had double bottom
1024
1025 257
1026 00:16:29,910 ~-~-> 00:16:33,510
1027 swept here and then rejection. So we'll be anticipating a
1028
1029 258
1030 00:16:33,510 ~-~-> 00:16:36,600
1031 movement higher to clear out the liquidity about these equal
1032
1033 259
1034 00:16:36,600 ~-~-> 00:16:39,720
1035 highs and maybe make an attempt to go a bit higher up from
1036
1037 260
1038 00:16:39,720 ~-~-> 00:16:41,130
1039 the range that's created from this high
1040
1041 261
1042 00:16:41,610 ~-~-> 00:16:44,460
1043 to this low. Okay. So
1044
1045 262
1046 00:16:45,510 ~-~-> 00:16:50,190
1047 what I'm looking for is evidence of a clear direction where
1048
1049 263
1050 00:16:50,190 ~-~-> 00:16:53,610
1051 it wants to go. And when we have areas where like we just
1052
1053 264
1054 00:16:53,610 ~-~-> 00:16:56,100
1055 recently had these equal lows taken out, we're here and we
1056
1057 265
1058 00:16:56,100 ~-~-> 00:16:56,760
1059 rejected
1060
1061 266
1062 00:16:58,860 ~-~-> 00:17:01,140
1063 we just recently had these each colos taken out with this
1064
1065 267
1066 00:17:01,140 ~-~-> 00:17:04,770
1067 run here, and it rejected. And it's also left these equal
1068
1069 268
1070 00:17:04,770 ~-~-> 00:17:07,080
1071 highs in place. So where's the most likely direction going
1072
1073 269
1074 00:17:07,080 ~-~-> 00:17:11,640
1075 to be up. And it's also in favor with what I find in the
1076
1077 270
1078 00:17:12,240 ~-~-> 00:17:14,610
1079 dollar index at the beginning of the video. So we could
1080
1081 271
1082 00:17:14,610 ~-~-> 00:17:19,320
1083 probably see a run higher. So there's two conditions that we
1084
1085 272
1086 00:17:19,320 ~-~-> 00:17:24,960
1087 looking forward, euro dollar lower dollar CAD higher, and
1088
1089 273
1090 00:17:24,990 ~-~-> 00:17:28,290
1091 Dollar Index higher. Now again, this is the condition that I
1092
1093 274
1094 00:17:28,290 ~-~-> 00:17:31,590
1095 would see right now, but the probabilities are not as high
1096
1097 275
1098 00:17:31,830 ~-~-> 00:17:33,870
1099 because we're so close to the holidays and it's the end of
1100
1101 276
1102 00:17:33,870 ~-~-> 00:17:36,990
1103 the year end of the month, but I'm giving you how I would
1104
1105 277
1106 00:17:36,990 ~-~-> 00:17:39,330
1107 personally go through the charts and study and look for
1108
1109 278
1110 00:17:39,330 ~-~-> 00:17:43,080
1111 opportunities or price movements to study how it unfolds in
1112
1113 279
1114 00:17:43,080 ~-~-> 00:17:48,360
1115 the daily chart. Okay, and then we have the dollar swissy
1116
1117 280
1118 00:17:48,990 ~-~-> 00:17:51,180
1119 kind of like what we seen with the Aussie dollar and it
1120
1121 281
1122 00:17:51,180 ~-~-> 00:17:56,250
1123 doesn't have a real directional bias yet. We do have price
1124
1125 282
1126 00:17:56,250 ~-~-> 00:18:00,300
1127 coming down below these equal lows. We ran through That
1128
1129 283
1130 00:18:00,330 ~-~-> 00:18:04,380
1131 rejected. So we may have an attempt to get back above here,
1132
1133 284
1134 00:18:04,650 ~-~-> 00:18:07,560
1135 but if you go a little bit to the left further, we have
1136
1137 285
1138 00:18:07,560 ~-~-> 00:18:09,510
1139 relatively equal highs here. So if we had that dollar
1140
1141 286
1142 00:18:09,510 ~-~-> 00:18:12,930
1143 bullishness, we could see another leg higher to reach above
1144
1145 287
1146 00:18:13,140 ~-~-> 00:18:17,190
1147 these equal highs. So I don't like that one so much. But if
1148
1149 288
1150 00:18:17,520 ~-~-> 00:18:20,730
1151 we want to talk about probable levels to reach for dollar
1152
1153 289
1154 00:18:20,730 ~-~-> 00:18:23,400
1155 swissy, we could possibly see a trade up to that level right
1156
1157 290
1158 00:18:23,460 ~-~-> 00:18:31,200
1159 here. And finally, the dollar yen, okay, and this pattern is
1160
1161 291
1162 00:18:31,260 ~-~-> 00:18:37,020
1163 a really obvious trading range. Okay, this pairs had a real
1164
1165 292
1166 00:18:37,260 ~-~-> 00:18:41,100
1167 hard time finding its way out of this range. And it's going
1168
1169 293
1170 00:18:41,100 ~-~-> 00:18:43,380
1171 to add on the levels to save time.
1172
1173 294
1174 00:18:44,880 ~-~-> 00:18:45,570
1175 And
1176
1177 295
1178 00:18:46,980 ~-~-> 00:18:51,330
1179 what we're looking at here okay, what we're looking at here,
1180
1181 296
1182 00:18:51,600 ~-~-> 00:18:57,840
1183 I have the double bottoms, and old highs, noted and also
1184
1185 297
1186 00:18:57,840 ~-~-> 00:19:02,910
1187 have the yearly high defined with this range here, looking
1188
1189 298
1190 00:19:02,910 ~-~-> 00:19:07,170
1191 back 12 months, and we haven't defined and this month here
1192
1193 299
1194 00:19:07,170 ~-~-> 00:19:10,800
1195 will be 12 full months, and also have the ranges
1196
1197 300
1198 00:19:11,519 ~-~-> 00:19:12,719
1199 with the quarterly.
1200
1201 301
1202 00:19:14,099 ~-~-> 00:19:19,019
1203 Okay, so here's March. It takes us to June, September, and
1204
1205 302
1206 00:19:19,019 ~-~-> 00:19:21,989
1207 we're in December now. And then obviously, you can go
1208
1209 303
1210 00:19:21,989 ~-~-> 00:19:25,139
1211 through and add the individual vertical lines to delineate
1212
1213 304
1214 00:19:25,169 ~-~-> 00:19:28,499
1215 what the individual individual monthly highs and lows are.
1216
1217 305
1218 00:19:28,499 ~-~-> 00:19:30,449
1219 But I didn't want to add all that because they would make
1220
1221 306
1222 00:19:30,449 ~-~-> 00:19:34,529
1223 the chart really busy. And the question is, you know, how
1224
1225 307
1226 00:19:34,529 ~-~-> 00:19:37,079
1227 many levels would you have? Well, you're only going to worry
1228
1229 308
1230 00:19:37,079 ~-~-> 00:19:39,239
1231 about the ones that's right now, like right now where we're
1232
1233 309
1234 00:19:39,239 ~-~-> 00:19:42,689
1235 trading right here. The range is defined by when we just
1236
1237 310
1238 00:19:42,689 ~-~-> 00:19:45,719
1239 recently came off this low and we just recently left this
1240
1241 311
1242 00:19:45,719 ~-~-> 00:19:49,769
1243 high. So we're inside that range here. Okay, we're a little
1244
1245 312
1246 00:19:49,919 ~-~-> 00:19:53,609
1247 little bit less than halfway below that. So, if we're
1248
1249 313
1250 00:19:53,609 ~-~-> 00:19:56,819
1251 expecting bullishness on the dollar, we would reasonably
1252
1253 314
1254 00:19:56,819 ~-~-> 00:19:59,999
1255 expect the dollar yen to make an attempt to get
1256
1257 315
1258 00:20:00,390 ~-~-> 00:20:00,990
1259 Higher.
1260
1261 316
1262 00:20:02,519 ~-~-> 00:20:05,969
1263 The problem with this pair is it's really stuck in a range.
1264
1265 317
1266 00:20:06,059 ~-~-> 00:20:07,799
1267 So you don't want to trade it in the middle of the range.
1268
1269 318
1270 00:20:07,799 ~-~-> 00:20:10,919
1271 You want to trade it when it gets down to an old low. You
1272
1273 319
1274 00:20:10,919 ~-~-> 00:20:13,019
1275 want to anticipate it running an old low like it did these
1276
1277 320
1278 00:20:13,019 ~-~-> 00:20:17,249
1279 equal lows here, run that and then rally. Okay, we have
1280
1281 321
1282 00:20:17,279 ~-~-> 00:20:19,559
1283 equal lows here and we'd like to see it trade down, maybe
1284
1285 322
1286 00:20:19,799 ~-~-> 00:20:23,639
1287 take those out, and then rally up or just leave Wait where
1288
1289 323
1290 00:20:23,639 ~-~-> 00:20:27,209
1291 it's at and start running higher. We had equal highs here,
1292
1293 324
1294 00:20:27,299 ~-~-> 00:20:31,409
1295 punch through it here and then traded lower. We had equal
1296
1297 325
1298 00:20:31,409 ~-~-> 00:20:36,509
1299 lows here 1234 ran through it and also reach below this low
1300
1301 326
1302 00:20:36,509 ~-~-> 00:20:36,929
1303 here.
1304
1305 327
1306 00:20:37,980 ~-~-> 00:20:38,520
1307 So
1308
1309 328
1310 00:20:40,079 ~-~-> 00:20:45,329
1311 what we're looking for is old lows to be ran out, which it
1312
1313 329
1314 00:20:45,329 ~-~-> 00:20:48,059
1315 does here. And then rejection what makes the rejection and
1316
1317 330
1318 00:20:48,059 ~-~-> 00:20:51,269
1319 trades back above the old low. Once that happens, you would
1320
1321 331
1322 00:20:51,269 ~-~-> 00:20:56,459
1323 look for an old high or equal highs to reach for. Here's an
1324
1325 332
1326 00:20:56,459 ~-~-> 00:20:59,939
1327 old high it goes straight to that. We have no high here.
1328
1329 333
1330 00:21:00,239 ~-~-> 00:21:04,139
1331 Doesn't get to that it fails here. trades back down, it goes
1332
1333 334
1334 00:21:04,139 ~-~-> 00:21:08,249
1335 back below this old high. What's it going to reach for?
1336
1337 335
1338 00:21:09,209 ~-~-> 00:21:13,319
1339 Possibly this old low here? It trades back up to this level
1340
1341 336
1342 00:21:13,319 ~-~-> 00:21:16,229
1343 here as a key level. This is reason why it makes these
1344
1345 337
1346 00:21:16,229 ~-~-> 00:21:20,489
1347 levels key. I having defined ranges that are generic,
1348
1349 338
1350 00:21:20,729 ~-~-> 00:21:24,419
1351 they're not dynamic. They're not ambiguous. They are
1352
1353 339
1354 00:21:24,419 ~-~-> 00:21:28,379
1355 specific. Okay. previous week's highs and lows, monthly
1356
1357 340
1358 00:21:28,379 ~-~-> 00:21:32,669
1359 highs and lows, quarterly highs and lows, yearly highs and
1360
1361 341
1362 00:21:32,669 ~-~-> 00:21:36,899
1363 lows. And by focusing only on those and trading when it gets
1364
1365 342
1366 00:21:36,899 ~-~-> 00:21:40,679
1367 to those levels and nothing else. Okay, we're not trading in
1368
1369 343
1370 00:21:40,679 ~-~-> 00:21:44,459
1371 here because on a daily timeframe, you're stuck. You have to
1372
1373 344
1374 00:21:44,459 ~-~-> 00:21:48,089
1375 wait for longer term setups. So you're going to have to wait
1376
1377 345
1378 00:21:48,089 ~-~-> 00:21:50,699
1379 for these levels to trade back to this high trade through
1380
1381 346
1382 00:21:50,699 ~-~-> 00:21:53,819
1383 it. Maybe reject it. Okay, and wait for that candle close.
1384
1385 347
1386 00:21:53,819 ~-~-> 00:21:56,639
1387 You'll come home from work and see that it's done that Okay,
1388
1389 348
1390 00:21:56,639 ~-~-> 00:21:59,999
1391 so what do you do in Asia, you can go short or you can look
1392
1393 349
1394 00:21:59,999 ~-~-> 00:22:03,959
1395 To open in Asia, and maybe trade above the opening at Asia,
1396
1397 350
1398 00:22:04,679 ~-~-> 00:22:08,309
1399 and then sell short their best up above the high. And it may
1400
1401 351
1402 00:22:08,309 ~-~-> 00:22:11,969
1403 be a lot of pips because of the daily range. But again, this
1404
1405 352
1406 00:22:11,969 ~-~-> 00:22:14,579
1407 is for people that cannot day trade. What are you gonna be
1408
1409 353
1410 00:22:14,579 ~-~-> 00:22:17,849
1411 looking for? Well, we have this low down here, we can hold
1412
1413 354
1414 00:22:17,849 ~-~-> 00:22:22,469
1415 for that. And it takes a long time. Many, many weeks go by
1416
1417 355
1418 00:22:22,469 ~-~-> 00:22:25,019
1419 before it ends up blowing out that low here. So you could
1420
1421 356
1422 00:22:25,019 ~-~-> 00:22:28,709
1423 have made profit between this price point here. And here.
1424
1425 357
1426 00:22:29,759 ~-~-> 00:22:33,929
1427 same scenario, when we see this low here, price trades down
1428
1429 358
1430 00:22:33,929 ~-~-> 00:22:36,419
1431 below it, we wait for it to do what come back above it. It
1432
1433 359
1434 00:22:36,419 ~-~-> 00:22:41,609
1435 does it here. So we can be a buyer on this day here. And
1436
1437 360
1438 00:22:42,239 ~-~-> 00:22:45,869
1439 look for what price to trade to where this Oh, hi. Why
1440
1441 361
1442 00:22:45,869 ~-~-> 00:22:49,529
1443 because we have equal highs. So price trades above it. And
1444
1445 362
1446 00:22:49,529 ~-~-> 00:22:52,049
1447 there's your opportunity right there. This becomes another
1448
1449 363
1450 00:22:52,049 ~-~-> 00:22:54,989
1451 trade because we have equal highs. It's it's rally through
1452
1453 364
1454 00:22:54,989 ~-~-> 00:22:58,889
1455 that. We can be reaching for market below these equal lows.
1456
1457 365
1458 00:22:59,069 ~-~-> 00:23:03,029
1459 So it can be a seller On the long position and go short,
1460
1461 366
1462 00:23:03,899 ~-~-> 00:23:06,449
1463 looking for a run below these equal lows here, it does that
1464
1465 367
1466 00:23:06,449 ~-~-> 00:23:11,759
1467 here. Okay, we take profits. And because we've taken equal
1468
1469 368
1470 00:23:11,759 ~-~-> 00:23:17,429
1471 lows, we can have a rally. Again, since we had this high,
1472
1473 369
1474 00:23:17,579 ~-~-> 00:23:20,459
1475 take out these equal highs here, we've never came back to
1476
1477 370
1478 00:23:20,459 ~-~-> 00:23:24,329
1479 this high yet. So that would be the next level of upside I
1480
1481 371
1482 00:23:24,329 ~-~-> 00:23:27,569
1483 would expect you to be traded to, and if we get momentum
1484
1485 372
1486 00:23:27,569 ~-~-> 00:23:31,769
1487 through that, because see these double tops taken out. Okay.
1488
1489 373
1490 00:23:32,159 ~-~-> 00:23:37,199
1491 And that's pretty much what I teach new traders start with.
1492
1493 374
1494 00:23:37,859 ~-~-> 00:23:41,279
1495 If they're stuck only on this timeframe, it takes a lot of
1496
1497 375
1498 00:23:41,279 ~-~-> 00:23:44,489
1499 time for the setups to form. They cannot do anything else
1500
1501 376
1502 00:23:44,489 ~-~-> 00:23:46,859
1503 until it trades to these types of levels. Why? Because this
1504
1505 377
1506 00:23:46,859 ~-~-> 00:23:50,279
1507 is a highest probability levels. Yes, you can do day trading
1508
1509 378
1510 00:23:50,279 ~-~-> 00:23:55,109
1511 entries. But again, this whole teaching was focused
1512
1513 379
1514 00:23:55,139 ~-~-> 00:23:58,529
1515 primarily on individuals that cannot be on short term
1516
1517 380
1518 00:23:58,529 ~-~-> 00:24:01,919
1519 timeframes. They don't have A lot of time, and he had to be
1520
1521 381
1522 00:24:01,919 ~-~-> 00:24:03,659
1523 looking for something on a daily chart.
1524
1525 382
1526 00:24:04,230 ~-~-> 00:24:06,360
1527 This is how you would do it. So
1528
1529 383
1530 00:24:07,769 ~-~-> 00:24:10,889
1531 there's a lot of things that, you know, we could add to
1532
1533 384
1534 00:24:10,889 ~-~-> 00:24:13,349
1535 this. But I don't want to do too much of that. Because
1536
1537 385
1538 00:24:13,349 ~-~-> 00:24:17,369
1539 again, if you're on this timeframe, you're probably very new
1540
1541 386
1542 00:24:17,819 ~-~-> 00:24:20,309
1543 in your development. And I don't want to give you a lot of
1544
1545 387
1546 00:24:20,309 ~-~-> 00:24:24,059
1547 things to worry with. Just start looking for double tops and
1548
1549 388
1550 00:24:24,059 ~-~-> 00:24:28,019
1551 old highs and whole lows and double bottoms and draw circles
1552
1553 389
1554 00:24:28,019 ~-~-> 00:24:31,409
1555 on that make a notation on your chart, this this line, this
1556
1557 390
1558 00:24:31,409 ~-~-> 00:24:34,199
1559 high here and this high here. Yes, we went above a little
1560
1561 391
1562 00:24:34,199 ~-~-> 00:24:37,409
1563 bit rejected, but these are relatively equal highs. So price
1564
1565 392
1566 00:24:37,409 ~-~-> 00:24:40,349
1567 could come back through that. Again, it does. But notice it
1568
1569 393
1570 00:24:40,349 ~-~-> 00:24:44,429
1571 leaves this high intact. So this is an untapped area of
1572
1573 394
1574 00:24:44,429 ~-~-> 00:24:46,829
1575 liquidity. And you're probably saying, well, who has a stop
1576
1577 395
1578 00:24:46,829 ~-~-> 00:24:50,219
1579 up there? Large funds. That's what the market reaches for.
1580
1581 396
1582 00:24:50,519 ~-~-> 00:24:53,579
1583 It's not your retail stop. Now your retail stock is going to
1584
1585 397
1586 00:24:53,579 ~-~-> 00:24:56,279
1587 be placed where the books tell you and it's gonna be the
1588
1589 398
1590 00:24:56,279 ~-~-> 00:25:00,749
1591 wrong place, but the markets go to large look quiddity pools
1592
1593 399
1594 00:25:01,049 ~-~-> 00:25:05,759
1595 on the basis of other institutional traders, or large funds,
1596
1597 400
1598 00:25:06,089 ~-~-> 00:25:09,119
1599 the markets all designed to go after that, okay, your retail
1600
1601 401
1602 00:25:09,119 ~-~-> 00:25:10,889
1603 stuff, they can't see it, they don't know where it's at,
1604
1605 402
1606 00:25:10,889 ~-~-> 00:25:13,859
1607 it's not important to them, because you're such a small
1608
1609 403
1610 00:25:13,859 ~-~-> 00:25:16,829
1611 little blip on the radar. In terms of liquidity, they can't
1612
1613 404
1614 00:25:16,829 ~-~-> 00:25:20,849
1615 pay anything out with you. So, large funds, they're trading
1616
1617 405
1618 00:25:21,059 ~-~-> 00:25:25,409
1619 billions of dollars many times. And that will have a large
1620
1621 406
1622 00:25:25,409 ~-~-> 00:25:28,229
1623 area of interest for buying and selling. And the market will
1624
1625 407
1626 00:25:28,229 ~-~-> 00:25:31,109
1627 gravitate to those levels. But they're going to be relative
1628
1629 408
1630 00:25:31,109 ~-~-> 00:25:37,469
1631 to these highs, these lows and these double tops and double
1632
1633 409
1634 00:25:37,469 ~-~-> 00:25:40,649
1635 bottoms, you can see how the market goes right to them, and
1636
1637 410
1638 00:25:40,649 ~-~-> 00:25:42,569
1639 then starts to look for the other side of the marketplace.
1640
1641 411
1642 00:25:43,439 ~-~-> 00:25:47,699
1643 So a higher time standpoint, basically, all you're gonna be
1644
1645 412
1646 00:25:47,699 ~-~-> 00:25:51,059
1647 looking for are obvious double tops and double bottoms and
1648
1649 413
1650 00:25:51,059 ~-~-> 00:25:53,999
1651 single highs and single lows, and where the market most
1652
1653 414
1654 00:25:53,999 ~-~-> 00:25:57,389
1655 recently came from. Just find the opposite direction where
1656
1657 415
1658 00:25:57,389 ~-~-> 00:26:00,629
1659 the liquidity would be below the lows right here. Now this
1660
1661 416
1662 00:26:00,659 ~-~-> 00:26:04,889
1663 if it wasn't double bottom or equal lows like this, say this
1664
1665 417
1666 00:26:04,889 ~-~-> 00:26:07,379
1667 was not a low, this would be sufficient and not because
1668
1669 418
1670 00:26:07,379 ~-~-> 00:26:10,559
1671 that's where it cell stops would be after running by stops
1672
1673 419
1674 00:26:10,559 ~-~-> 00:26:14,669
1675 above here, the markets go lower seeking what liquidity
1676
1677 420
1678 00:26:15,689 ~-~-> 00:26:17,729
1679 wants to take that once it takes that liquidity out below
1680
1681 421
1682 00:26:17,729 ~-~-> 00:26:19,949
1683 that low, it's going to do what he says we're going to keep
1684
1685 422
1686 00:26:19,949 ~-~-> 00:26:22,829
1687 going lower for a lower level of liquidity, which it
1688
1689 423
1690 00:26:22,829 ~-~-> 00:26:25,229
1691 shouldn't, because we've already had many attempts to go
1692
1693 424
1694 00:26:25,229 ~-~-> 00:26:29,549
1695 here, here, here, here. And then we're out of the way. So if
1696
1697 425
1698 00:26:29,549 ~-~-> 00:26:32,039
1699 we go below here, we want to see it trade higher. What's it
1700
1701 426
1702 00:26:32,039 ~-~-> 00:26:35,789
1703 going to reach for? We have this short term high, it reached
1704
1705 427
1706 00:26:35,849 ~-~-> 00:26:41,759
1707 above, and then we have this high rate in here. Okay, so
1708
1709 428
1710 00:26:41,999 ~-~-> 00:26:44,219
1711 there's liquidity above that one, and we certainly have
1712
1713 429
1714 00:26:44,219 ~-~-> 00:26:46,739
1715 liquidity above there. And ultimately, we get momentum above
1716
1717 430
1718 00:26:46,739 ~-~-> 00:26:49,679
1719 that. We could see the stocks rally out and that would be an
1720
1721 431
1722 00:26:49,679 ~-~-> 00:26:52,409
1723 agreement with bullish dollar as well, because the first
1724
1725 432
1726 00:26:53,549 ~-~-> 00:26:57,539
1727 currency in this pair is the dollar against the yen. So
1728
1729 433
1730 00:26:58,049 ~-~-> 00:27:01,859
1731 dollar strength in the index. would promote strength in this
1732
1733 434
1734 00:27:01,859 ~-~-> 00:27:02,159
1735 paper.
1736
1737 435
1738 00:27:10,019 ~-~-> 00:27:12,719
1739 Hopefully you enjoyed this presentation. You can find more
1740
1741 436
1742 00:27:12,719 ~-~-> 00:27:14,759
1743 at the inner circle trader.com