ICT Market Maker Primer Course - 23 - Higher Time Frame Concepts.srt

1
00:00:11,130 --> 00:00:13,410
ICT: Okay folks, this teaching is going to be specifically

2
00:00:13,410 --> 00:00:15,660
dealing with higher timeframe concepts.

3
00:00:22,170 --> 00:00:24,870
Okay, points in focus this module

4
00:00:26,220 --> 00:00:28,320
we're gonna be talking about key levels what makes a key

5
00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:28,680
level

6
00:00:30,450 --> 00:00:31,590
price rejections

7
00:00:34,140 --> 00:00:35,310
Alright, so key levels

8
00:00:37,410 --> 00:00:40,470
we're gonna be looking at yearly highs and lows. That means

9
00:00:40,470 --> 00:00:44,010
the last 12 months and this is a rolling calendar, not a

10
00:00:44,010 --> 00:00:48,240
specific January to December type phenomenon. So whatever

11
00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,660
today is go back 12 months and we'll see what the yearly

12
00:00:51,660 --> 00:00:52,650
high and the low is

13
00:00:52,829 --> 00:00:55,139
respective to those points.

14
00:00:57,119 --> 00:00:58,649
Okay monthly highs and lows

15
00:01:01,199 --> 00:01:04,709
And finally weekly highs and lows. So what we're looking for

16
00:01:04,739 --> 00:01:10,979
is the long term macro yearly highs and low the quarterly

17
00:01:11,369 --> 00:01:15,029
monthly highs and lows and the individual monthly highs and

18
00:01:15,029 --> 00:01:20,399
lows and the weekly highs and lows. Now what do I mean by

19
00:01:20,399 --> 00:01:23,549
weekly highs and lows, we're going to look back last week's

20
00:01:23,549 --> 00:01:26,999
high low, very simple, nothing high and low. We're gonna

21
00:01:26,999 --> 00:01:30,629
look at the last three months high and low. And we'll look

22
00:01:30,629 --> 00:01:34,319
at just the last 30 days or whatever the previous month is.

23
00:01:34,589 --> 00:01:38,399
It's high as time as low as low and nearly again is a

24
00:01:38,399 --> 00:01:43,859
rolling calendar from whatever today is go back 12 months,

25
00:01:44,069 --> 00:01:46,529
whatever the highest high and the lowest level is. We'll use

26
00:01:46,529 --> 00:01:47,729
that as a reference point.

27
00:01:52,740 --> 00:01:54,090
Okay, price rejections.

28
00:01:56,670 --> 00:01:59,070
double top sweeps that means when we see price action,

29
00:01:59,070 --> 00:02:03,030
creating very clean Equal highs or relatively equal highs.

30
00:02:03,750 --> 00:02:06,180
Were expecting that phenomenon to take place where price

31
00:02:06,180 --> 00:02:09,630
will drive above those equal highs, reject and trade lower.

32
00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,400
double bottom sweeps. In other words, this reverse what I

33
00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:18,780
just said, anytime on the price action, we see equal lows

34
00:02:18,900 --> 00:02:21,930
form, we would anticipate should price trade back down to

35
00:02:21,930 --> 00:02:25,830
that level or close to it, it would sweep below it, run the

36
00:02:25,860 --> 00:02:28,710
sell fast below the equal lows and then reject and go

37
00:02:28,710 --> 00:02:34,020
higher. In a simple run on old lows, that means running out

38
00:02:34,050 --> 00:02:36,120
a previous low and then rejecting that

39
00:02:36,630 --> 00:02:37,320
and going higher.

40
00:02:39,270 --> 00:02:42,870
And then runs on old highs which is the obvious reverse what

41
00:02:42,870 --> 00:02:46,470
I just mentioned in lows and old high gets traded through

42
00:02:47,010 --> 00:02:49,410
false breakout and then returns back into the range trade in

43
00:02:49,410 --> 00:02:50,220
the opposite direction.

44
00:02:52,740 --> 00:02:53,460
So I want to think

45
00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,090
kind of a field trip if you will, through price action.

46
00:02:57,090 --> 00:02:59,700
We're gonna go through the majors tonight. I want to talk

47
00:02:59,700 --> 00:03:02,820
about some Things that I think that a new trader should be

48
00:03:02,820 --> 00:03:05,400
focusing on, and how to use some of these things to

49
00:03:05,460 --> 00:03:10,740
formulate an idea or understanding to build Foundation, and

50
00:03:10,740 --> 00:03:13,620
then start building on that with more than concepts I'll be

51
00:03:13,620 --> 00:03:17,310
teaching in my continuing series. Okay, folks, we're looking

52
00:03:17,310 --> 00:03:19,770
at $1 chart, this is the daily

53
00:03:21,210 --> 00:03:21,720
and

54
00:03:22,170 --> 00:03:25,560
when we sit down, beginner analysis, these for higher

55
00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,560
timeframe standpoint, this teaching is going to be really

56
00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:30,960
aimed at those individuals that cannot do a whole lot of

57
00:03:31,650 --> 00:03:36,960
intraday charting, or trading or day trading or scalping. So

58
00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,740
claim analysis concepts, when an individual that has that

59
00:03:40,770 --> 00:03:41,550
limitation

60
00:03:45,300 --> 00:03:46,470
has that limitation,

61
00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,030
what is available in terms of analysis, or techniques that

62
00:03:51,030 --> 00:03:54,390
we can more or less ferret out an opportunity to practice

63
00:03:54,390 --> 00:03:59,580
with our demo account. So what I like to do is number one, I

64
00:03:59,580 --> 00:04:03,540
dislike Through all the majors, but I'll begin with the

65
00:04:03,540 --> 00:04:09,270
dollar index and from $1 daily, okay, we can see that we

66
00:04:09,270 --> 00:04:14,730
have been trading lower. there since around August, we've

67
00:04:14,730 --> 00:04:19,050
been consolidating and gone sideways. Now, the prevailing

68
00:04:19,050 --> 00:04:23,940
trend has been down for the entire year on the dollar. And

69
00:04:23,940 --> 00:04:28,170
we created a rather significant low here. And we've rallied

70
00:04:28,170 --> 00:04:34,440
up so we've broken this high. Since this happened, we've

71
00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,020
been consolidating sideways but also notice that we have

72
00:04:37,350 --> 00:04:43,440
traded below this low and we've been inching higher. So

73
00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:47,220
using the things that I mentioned on the beginning of the

74
00:04:47,220 --> 00:04:53,760
video, we look for relatively obvious support resistance

75
00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:58,080
levels. Okay. Long term yearly highs and lows, monthly highs

76
00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,860
and lows quarterly highs and lows. In previous weeks highs

77
00:05:01,860 --> 00:05:05,040
and low, I'm not going to draw all those levels on here.

78
00:05:10,380 --> 00:05:13,200
I'm not gonna draw this on there, because this could turn

79
00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:17,670
into a four hour video. And it's really not essential. You

80
00:05:17,670 --> 00:05:20,130
can go through the charts and do that. And I'll do it with

81
00:05:20,130 --> 00:05:26,190
one chart in this presentation. Real quick. But the, the

82
00:05:26,190 --> 00:05:29,520
idea is first and foremost, you want to see where are we

83
00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:31,710
trading right now? Are we in a trending model? Or are we in

84
00:05:31,710 --> 00:05:35,820
a trading range market? Right now we're in a range bound

85
00:05:35,820 --> 00:05:40,920
market or potentially be a reversal. If we look at the

86
00:05:40,980 --> 00:05:43,980
trend, it's been lower, we have potential reversal point

87
00:05:43,980 --> 00:05:47,430
down here, and we've gone sideways. So what could eventually

88
00:05:47,430 --> 00:05:51,750
happen is we could shoot higher and aim for these equal

89
00:05:51,780 --> 00:05:52,410
highs.

90
00:05:53,580 --> 00:05:56,070
Or we could roll right over

91
00:05:56,580 --> 00:05:59,940
and make an attempt to go lower and retest this low or try

92
00:05:59,940 --> 00:06:01,320
to Trade down to it and fail.

93
00:06:01,950 --> 00:06:02,910
Okay, we don't know that.

94
00:06:03,540 --> 00:06:06,150
So but you don't need to know that. So the question I get a

95
00:06:06,150 --> 00:06:09,720
lot is, well, how do I know if it's not gonna go below this

96
00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,630
low if it wasn't stopped or if it goes through and

97
00:06:12,660 --> 00:06:16,110
continues? Well, you have to figure out where the market is

98
00:06:16,110 --> 00:06:18,600
right now. And if you believe it's going to go down there

99
00:06:18,900 --> 00:06:22,620
that offers up a range. So you look for opportunities

100
00:06:22,620 --> 00:06:24,810
between where you think it is right now if you think is

101
00:06:24,810 --> 00:06:28,350
going to go down to that low. That's your opportunity. Okay,

102
00:06:28,350 --> 00:06:34,110
it's your range of potential profit. But as it is here, I

103
00:06:34,110 --> 00:06:36,570
like to look at what was the most recent

104
00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:39,900
run on liquidity.

105
00:06:41,460 --> 00:06:47,160
Most recently, we've had it trade above this high and we

106
00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,220
sold off a little bit and then we came right back, roaring

107
00:06:50,220 --> 00:06:54,240
higher, trying to maybe run through these equal highs again

108
00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,720
and if we do that, we may be reaching for these equal highs.

109
00:06:58,830 --> 00:07:04,140
Notice also the Low was traded through with this low.

110
00:07:04,439 --> 00:07:07,319
So we've already tried to go lower below this low and it

111
00:07:07,319 --> 00:07:11,789
rejected it handsomely. We tried to go above this high here,

112
00:07:11,879 --> 00:07:15,419
try to sell off but quickly came back. Now this could still

113
00:07:15,419 --> 00:07:20,099
roll over and go lower. But right now we're at a crossroads

114
00:07:20,099 --> 00:07:22,469
where if it goes any higher from here and also we trade up

115
00:07:22,469 --> 00:07:27,959
above these equal highs that may warrant a run to these

116
00:07:27,959 --> 00:07:32,759
equal highs. And if it does that, that may be a precursor to

117
00:07:32,759 --> 00:07:39,149
a run even higher, okay? Or because the time of the year

118
00:07:39,179 --> 00:07:43,019
we're at the end of 2017, we're late in the month of

119
00:07:43,019 --> 00:07:46,889
December. This thing could just go sideways, between the

120
00:07:46,889 --> 00:07:50,189
high and the low defined here and just stay at equilibrium.

121
00:07:51,329 --> 00:07:54,149
Now the things you'll learn with experience is there are

122
00:07:54,149 --> 00:07:57,389
certain times a year when the market is predisposed to do

123
00:07:57,389 --> 00:07:59,999
certain things certain times a year as opposed to trends.

124
00:08:00,539 --> 00:08:03,659
certain times a year because of the consolidation, right

125
00:08:03,659 --> 00:08:07,199
now, typically we're in a consolidation time. Okay? If you

126
00:08:07,199 --> 00:08:12,299
look back at the previous years, okay, we have a market

127
00:08:12,839 --> 00:08:17,399
trending prior to it, and then went into consolidation. Then

128
00:08:17,399 --> 00:08:21,449
around March, we start trending down to around August or

129
00:08:21,449 --> 00:08:24,989
September, then it goes into some consolidation again.

130
00:08:25,439 --> 00:08:28,679
So the idea of profiling

131
00:08:28,739 --> 00:08:31,079
i think is beneficial for you, especially if you're looking

132
00:08:31,079 --> 00:08:35,369
at higher timeframe charts. But the main thing I want you to

133
00:08:35,369 --> 00:08:40,259
take away from this presentation is even though you're not

134
00:08:40,259 --> 00:08:44,039
looking at lower timeframes, you're not scalping or day

135
00:08:44,039 --> 00:08:48,959
trading. Those same price action concepts. Still applying

136
00:08:48,959 --> 00:08:51,809
because prices fractal, that means the things that we would

137
00:08:51,809 --> 00:08:56,759
see and expect to see unfold in lower timeframes. Just not

138
00:08:56,939 --> 00:09:00,389
tied to any real time element you would still expect same

139
00:09:00,389 --> 00:09:02,849
phenomenon took her on higher timeframe charts like the

140
00:09:02,849 --> 00:09:03,209
daily.

141
00:09:04,259 --> 00:09:05,639
If we go to the euro dollar

142
00:09:07,350 --> 00:09:09,510
you can see the opposite has happened. Because market has

143
00:09:09,510 --> 00:09:13,680
trended higher as the dollar index itself traded lower.

144
00:09:15,450 --> 00:09:18,510
We've seen the market trade sideways as we saw on the dollar

145
00:09:18,510 --> 00:09:23,250
index. Now, again, let's take a look at some ideas here.

146
00:09:24,270 --> 00:09:29,640
We've had a high, traded through it broke down, took out

147
00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:36,660
that swing low, traded back up in here, broke it. Now we

148
00:09:36,660 --> 00:09:40,860
broke this high, you tried to go higher. And now we're

149
00:09:40,860 --> 00:09:42,060
seeing like equal lows.

150
00:09:43,500 --> 00:09:44,730
We had these lows

151
00:09:45,270 --> 00:09:49,320
taken with this low. So again, same scenario, we could be

152
00:09:49,560 --> 00:09:55,020
stuck in this range for the remainder of December. If I were

153
00:09:55,020 --> 00:09:58,470
a betting man, and forcing myself to take a trade where

154
00:09:58,470 --> 00:10:01,140
we're at right now, I would have left expected to trade

155
00:10:01,140 --> 00:10:05,280
lower now, will it run through these relatively equal lows?

156
00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:10,620
Well, it looks a little bit cleaner for that they occur in

157
00:10:10,620 --> 00:10:14,130
opposite direction with the dollar index because it equal

158
00:10:14,130 --> 00:10:17,010
highs up here and the market could in fact try to trade

159
00:10:17,010 --> 00:10:19,200
above these equal highs and reach for that

160
00:10:20,340 --> 00:10:21,240
on the Euro

161
00:10:23,220 --> 00:10:27,960
we have a slightly lower low comparable to this low, but

162
00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:32,280
nonetheless we could be overall retracing now why would that

163
00:10:32,340 --> 00:10:37,680
be most likely to occur and not higher is because we've had

164
00:10:37,680 --> 00:10:41,790
the market move one direction all year long. Then we went

165
00:10:41,790 --> 00:10:45,840
consolidation and we broke above this high here should have

166
00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:51,120
ran higher but now we keep breaking a low. Okay, so any

167
00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,520
further movement below these equal lows, I would see that as

168
00:10:53,550 --> 00:10:56,130
momentum building to make an attempt to get below these lows

169
00:10:56,130 --> 00:10:59,490
here. Now how much further below that we'd have to weigh

170
00:10:59,490 --> 00:11:03,270
that out in At the time, but for now, I would anticipate

171
00:11:03,270 --> 00:11:06,840
because of the time of year we're in late December, the

172
00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,480
markets already moved. We're kind of like long in the tooth

173
00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:13,440
if you will for that move. It would be reasonable or healthy

174
00:11:13,470 --> 00:11:17,070
expected to have some measure of retracement now if it

175
00:11:17,070 --> 00:11:22,230
trades above this high, then we would be aiming for these

176
00:11:22,230 --> 00:11:25,710
highs to be taken out and probably a measured move something

177
00:11:25,710 --> 00:11:30,270
like this low to this high, add that range this low and you

178
00:11:30,270 --> 00:11:33,840
would get some kind of projection. Okay. But right now I'm

179
00:11:33,900 --> 00:11:41,160
thinking neutral to bearish on the euro dollar cable. We've

180
00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:46,440
had a nice uptrending market here. And this one had an

181
00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:50,190
ability to get above and outside of this range in here. And

182
00:11:50,190 --> 00:11:55,920
we traded up into almost this swing high been taken out. But

183
00:11:55,950 --> 00:11:59,550
this is actually a very difficult market to be in right now.

184
00:11:59,580 --> 00:12:03,990
It's not Clear, it's not obvious as to what it would want to

185
00:12:03,990 --> 00:12:07,830
do. So even though we've had a nice move earlier this year,

186
00:12:08,010 --> 00:12:11,310
we've gone into a condition where it's highly suspect in

187
00:12:11,310 --> 00:12:13,710
terms of what would be the most likely or probable

188
00:12:13,710 --> 00:12:18,300
direction, it's going to move next. Now, this looks like a

189
00:12:18,300 --> 00:12:22,140
classic chart pattern where folks would probably see that as

190
00:12:22,140 --> 00:12:25,800
maybe a bull flag and maybe continuation upside. But

191
00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,500
thinking about what I showed you in $1 index that kind of

192
00:12:28,500 --> 00:12:32,550
like negates This doesn't mean it can't spike up air and do

193
00:12:32,550 --> 00:12:36,750
whatever it wants to do, and run against the scenario with

194
00:12:36,750 --> 00:12:40,800
the dollar index. For now, I just think that we may end up

195
00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,740
seeing this thing go sideways still, or try to make an

196
00:12:43,740 --> 00:12:46,590
attempt to go back below these equal lows here, because

197
00:12:46,590 --> 00:12:48,750
we've already cleared out the equal highs, spend some time

198
00:12:48,750 --> 00:12:53,430
up here, no follow through yet. But if we trade down and

199
00:12:53,430 --> 00:12:56,700
break the middle of this range, to find by this high this

200
00:12:56,700 --> 00:13:01,770
low, if we go back below that, okay? Easiest way to do if we

201
00:13:01,770 --> 00:13:04,500
get below this swing low. I think that would be fair enough.

202
00:13:04,500 --> 00:13:07,620
If we break that low, would say price, try to make an

203
00:13:07,620 --> 00:13:10,170
attempt to get down below here to get these get these double

204
00:13:10,170 --> 00:13:13,710
bottoms. Okay, so we would expect a double bottom sweep on

205
00:13:13,710 --> 00:13:16,380
liquidity here, because you've already seen a double top

206
00:13:16,380 --> 00:13:22,650
sweep here. And we were in uncertain conditions for cable

207
00:13:22,680 --> 00:13:25,410
Why? Because the dollar looks like it wants to go higher.

208
00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:29,040
And even though the cable can go higher in that environment

209
00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:34,080
because of some fundamental factor that I don't know about

210
00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:37,860
and it could happen, and that's the risk we have in trading

211
00:13:37,860 --> 00:13:41,040
as well. We have to have stop losses and such. But I don't

212
00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,370
see that that's likely to occur, given the conditions in the

213
00:13:44,370 --> 00:13:49,380
marketplace here. So this pair I wouldn't touch but if I had

214
00:13:49,380 --> 00:13:52,260
a gun to my head, I would be reaching for these equal lows

215
00:13:52,290 --> 00:13:55,110
because of the dollar bullishness as outlined in beginning

216
00:13:55,110 --> 00:14:02,100
the video. Aussie dollar this mark has gone back into the

217
00:14:02,100 --> 00:14:04,200
middle of the range. It doesn't have any real clear

218
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:10,050
direction. We've had a move up, retracement move up and now

219
00:14:10,050 --> 00:14:12,600
we retraced we're since the in the middle of the range.

220
00:14:14,130 --> 00:14:18,120
Okay, so in terms of trading, this would probably be a good

221
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:23,130
day trading pair. But it's a short term trading or a swing

222
00:14:23,130 --> 00:14:27,120
trading. I wouldn't touch this one here. Why? Because it

223
00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:30,000
doesn't have a defined movement. And it's made an attempt to

224
00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:33,090
get quickly back in the equilibrium or the middle of the

225
00:14:33,090 --> 00:14:37,170
range and the range is defined. Number one, buy this low to

226
00:14:37,170 --> 00:14:39,060
this high and we're smack dab right in the middle of it

227
00:14:39,060 --> 00:14:43,290
right now. We tried to go lower. But this run here, we've

228
00:14:43,290 --> 00:14:47,130
outlined this in a previous video with SMT. Smart Money

229
00:14:47,430 --> 00:14:51,570
technique and we've rallied up taking out clean highs. Now

230
00:14:51,570 --> 00:14:54,450
it's uncertain as to where it wants to go. So the move is

231
00:14:54,450 --> 00:14:57,360
done for Aussie dollar and we would have to wait for a new

232
00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:01,440
setup. So the uncertainty and consolidation nature of this

233
00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,020
pair would keep me on the sidelines, I wouldn't worry about

234
00:15:04,050 --> 00:15:10,920
trading this one. New Zealand dollar is very similar. We

235
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:12,090
would be looking for

236
00:15:14,820 --> 00:15:17,490
similar conditions like what would the Aussie dollar but for

237
00:15:17,490 --> 00:15:20,340
this pair, it looks even worse, because we've had an attempt

238
00:15:20,340 --> 00:15:23,520
to go lower, lower, lower lower, every low has been taken

239
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:27,540
out. And we don't have any kind of clear defined market

240
00:15:27,540 --> 00:15:28,800
structure in here to work with.

241
00:15:29,430 --> 00:15:29,940
So

242
00:15:30,780 --> 00:15:33,450
it best we probably see it returned back to this low here.

243
00:15:33,780 --> 00:15:37,260
And what happens at that at it's anybody's guess. So there's

244
00:15:37,260 --> 00:15:41,220
no real clear market structure here to frame analysis on.

245
00:15:41,460 --> 00:15:44,640
Whereas what we saw with the dollar index and on the Euro,

246
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,600
there's potential there. So there's clarity in euro dollar,

247
00:15:48,900 --> 00:15:52,560
wanting to potentially go lower, and dollar going higher.

248
00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,170
Every other pair we've looked at so far is uncertain.

249
00:15:57,060 --> 00:15:57,930
dollar CAD,

250
00:15:59,340 --> 00:16:03,450
we've had an intense Trade lower below this low progressive

251
00:16:03,810 --> 00:16:07,230
and then it came back roaring higher, eventually taking out

252
00:16:07,230 --> 00:16:10,500
this swing high had a retracement nice optimal trade entry

253
00:16:10,500 --> 00:16:14,010
long in here. And we also have a consolidation. So it looks

254
00:16:14,010 --> 00:16:18,780
like we could be another leg higher on dollar CAD, if not

255
00:16:18,780 --> 00:16:23,430
for anything else. I run on these double tops. So double top

256
00:16:23,490 --> 00:16:29,610
sweep look for that. Tucker. We've already had double bottom

257
00:16:29,910 --> 00:16:33,510
swept here and then rejection. So we'll be anticipating a

258
00:16:33,510 --> 00:16:36,600
movement higher to clear out the liquidity about these equal

259
00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,720
highs and maybe make an attempt to go a bit higher up from

260
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:41,130
the range that's created from this high

261
00:16:41,610 --> 00:16:44,460
to this low. Okay. So

262
00:16:45,510 --> 00:16:50,190
what I'm looking for is evidence of a clear direction where

263
00:16:50,190 --> 00:16:53,610
it wants to go. And when we have areas where like we just

264
00:16:53,610 --> 00:16:56,100
recently had these equal lows taken out, we're here and we

265
00:16:56,100 --> 00:16:56,760
rejected

266
00:16:58,860 --> 00:17:01,140
we just recently had these each colos taken out with this

267
00:17:01,140 --> 00:17:04,770
run here, and it rejected. And it's also left these equal

268
00:17:04,770 --> 00:17:07,080
highs in place. So where's the most likely direction going

269
00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:11,640
to be up. And it's also in favor with what I find in the

270
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,610
dollar index at the beginning of the video. So we could

271
00:17:14,610 --> 00:17:19,320
probably see a run higher. So there's two conditions that we

272
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:24,960
looking forward, euro dollar lower dollar CAD higher, and

273
00:17:24,990 --> 00:17:28,290
Dollar Index higher. Now again, this is the condition that I

274
00:17:28,290 --> 00:17:31,590
would see right now, but the probabilities are not as high

275
00:17:31,830 --> 00:17:33,870
because we're so close to the holidays and it's the end of

276
00:17:33,870 --> 00:17:36,990
the year end of the month, but I'm giving you how I would

277
00:17:36,990 --> 00:17:39,330
personally go through the charts and study and look for

278
00:17:39,330 --> 00:17:43,080
opportunities or price movements to study how it unfolds in

279
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:48,360
the daily chart. Okay, and then we have the dollar swissy

280
00:17:48,990 --> 00:17:51,180
kind of like what we seen with the Aussie dollar and it

281
00:17:51,180 --> 00:17:56,250
doesn't have a real directional bias yet. We do have price

282
00:17:56,250 --> 00:18:00,300
coming down below these equal lows. We ran through That

283
00:18:00,330 --> 00:18:04,380
rejected. So we may have an attempt to get back above here,

284
00:18:04,650 --> 00:18:07,560
but if you go a little bit to the left further, we have

285
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:09,510
relatively equal highs here. So if we had that dollar

286
00:18:09,510 --> 00:18:12,930
bullishness, we could see another leg higher to reach above

287
00:18:13,140 --> 00:18:17,190
these equal highs. So I don't like that one so much. But if

288
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,730
we want to talk about probable levels to reach for dollar

289
00:18:20,730 --> 00:18:23,400
swissy, we could possibly see a trade up to that level right

290
00:18:23,460 --> 00:18:31,200
here. And finally, the dollar yen, okay, and this pattern is

291
00:18:31,260 --> 00:18:37,020
a really obvious trading range. Okay, this pairs had a real

292
00:18:37,260 --> 00:18:41,100
hard time finding its way out of this range. And it's going

293
00:18:41,100 --> 00:18:43,380
to add on the levels to save time.

294
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:45,570
And

295
00:18:46,980 --> 00:18:51,330
what we're looking at here okay, what we're looking at here,

296
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:57,840
I have the double bottoms, and old highs, noted and also

297
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:02,910
have the yearly high defined with this range here, looking

298
00:19:02,910 --> 00:19:07,170
back 12 months, and we haven't defined and this month here

299
00:19:07,170 --> 00:19:10,800
will be 12 full months, and also have the ranges

300
00:19:11,519 --> 00:19:12,719
with the quarterly.

301
00:19:14,099 --> 00:19:19,019
Okay, so here's March. It takes us to June, September, and

302
00:19:19,019 --> 00:19:21,989
we're in December now. And then obviously, you can go

303
00:19:21,989 --> 00:19:25,139
through and add the individual vertical lines to delineate

304
00:19:25,169 --> 00:19:28,499
what the individual individual monthly highs and lows are.

305
00:19:28,499 --> 00:19:30,449
But I didn't want to add all that because they would make

306
00:19:30,449 --> 00:19:34,529
the chart really busy. And the question is, you know, how

307
00:19:34,529 --> 00:19:37,079
many levels would you have? Well, you're only going to worry

308
00:19:37,079 --> 00:19:39,239
about the ones that's right now, like right now where we're

309
00:19:39,239 --> 00:19:42,689
trading right here. The range is defined by when we just

310
00:19:42,689 --> 00:19:45,719
recently came off this low and we just recently left this

311
00:19:45,719 --> 00:19:49,769
high. So we're inside that range here. Okay, we're a little

312
00:19:49,919 --> 00:19:53,609
little bit less than halfway below that. So, if we're

313
00:19:53,609 --> 00:19:56,819
expecting bullishness on the dollar, we would reasonably

314
00:19:56,819 --> 00:19:59,999
expect the dollar yen to make an attempt to get

315
00:20:00,390 --> 00:20:00,990
Higher.

316
00:20:02,519 --> 00:20:05,969
The problem with this pair is it's really stuck in a range.

317
00:20:06,059 --> 00:20:07,799
So you don't want to trade it in the middle of the range.

318
00:20:07,799 --> 00:20:10,919
You want to trade it when it gets down to an old low. You

319
00:20:10,919 --> 00:20:13,019
want to anticipate it running an old low like it did these

320
00:20:13,019 --> 00:20:17,249
equal lows here, run that and then rally. Okay, we have

321
00:20:17,279 --> 00:20:19,559
equal lows here and we'd like to see it trade down, maybe

322
00:20:19,799 --> 00:20:23,639
take those out, and then rally up or just leave Wait where

323
00:20:23,639 --> 00:20:27,209
it's at and start running higher. We had equal highs here,

324
00:20:27,299 --> 00:20:31,409
punch through it here and then traded lower. We had equal

325
00:20:31,409 --> 00:20:36,509
lows here 1234 ran through it and also reach below this low

326
00:20:36,509 --> 00:20:36,929
here.

327
00:20:37,980 --> 00:20:38,520
So

328
00:20:40,079 --> 00:20:45,329
what we're looking for is old lows to be ran out, which it

329
00:20:45,329 --> 00:20:48,059
does here. And then rejection what makes the rejection and

330
00:20:48,059 --> 00:20:51,269
trades back above the old low. Once that happens, you would

331
00:20:51,269 --> 00:20:56,459
look for an old high or equal highs to reach for. Here's an

332
00:20:56,459 --> 00:20:59,939
old high it goes straight to that. We have no high here.

333
00:21:00,239 --> 00:21:04,139
Doesn't get to that it fails here. trades back down, it goes

334
00:21:04,139 --> 00:21:08,249
back below this old high. What's it going to reach for?

335
00:21:09,209 --> 00:21:13,319
Possibly this old low here? It trades back up to this level

336
00:21:13,319 --> 00:21:16,229
here as a key level. This is reason why it makes these

337
00:21:16,229 --> 00:21:20,489
levels key. I having defined ranges that are generic,

338
00:21:20,729 --> 00:21:24,419
they're not dynamic. They're not ambiguous. They are

339
00:21:24,419 --> 00:21:28,379
specific. Okay. previous week's highs and lows, monthly

340
00:21:28,379 --> 00:21:32,669
highs and lows, quarterly highs and lows, yearly highs and

341
00:21:32,669 --> 00:21:36,899
lows. And by focusing only on those and trading when it gets

342
00:21:36,899 --> 00:21:40,679
to those levels and nothing else. Okay, we're not trading in

343
00:21:40,679 --> 00:21:44,459
here because on a daily timeframe, you're stuck. You have to

344
00:21:44,459 --> 00:21:48,089
wait for longer term setups. So you're going to have to wait

345
00:21:48,089 --> 00:21:50,699
for these levels to trade back to this high trade through

346
00:21:50,699 --> 00:21:53,819
it. Maybe reject it. Okay, and wait for that candle close.

347
00:21:53,819 --> 00:21:56,639
You'll come home from work and see that it's done that Okay,

348
00:21:56,639 --> 00:21:59,999
so what do you do in Asia, you can go short or you can look

349
00:21:59,999 --> 00:22:03,959
To open in Asia, and maybe trade above the opening at Asia,

350
00:22:04,679 --> 00:22:08,309
and then sell short their best up above the high. And it may

351
00:22:08,309 --> 00:22:11,969
be a lot of pips because of the daily range. But again, this

352
00:22:11,969 --> 00:22:14,579
is for people that cannot day trade. What are you gonna be

353
00:22:14,579 --> 00:22:17,849
looking for? Well, we have this low down here, we can hold

354
00:22:17,849 --> 00:22:22,469
for that. And it takes a long time. Many, many weeks go by

355
00:22:22,469 --> 00:22:25,019
before it ends up blowing out that low here. So you could

356
00:22:25,019 --> 00:22:28,709
have made profit between this price point here. And here.

357
00:22:29,759 --> 00:22:33,929
same scenario, when we see this low here, price trades down

358
00:22:33,929 --> 00:22:36,419
below it, we wait for it to do what come back above it. It

359
00:22:36,419 --> 00:22:41,609
does it here. So we can be a buyer on this day here. And

360
00:22:42,239 --> 00:22:45,869
look for what price to trade to where this Oh, hi. Why

361
00:22:45,869 --> 00:22:49,529
because we have equal highs. So price trades above it. And

362
00:22:49,529 --> 00:22:52,049
there's your opportunity right there. This becomes another

363
00:22:52,049 --> 00:22:54,989
trade because we have equal highs. It's it's rally through

364
00:22:54,989 --> 00:22:58,889
that. We can be reaching for market below these equal lows.

365
00:22:59,069 --> 00:23:03,029
So it can be a seller On the long position and go short,

366
00:23:03,899 --> 00:23:06,449
looking for a run below these equal lows here, it does that

367
00:23:06,449 --> 00:23:11,759
here. Okay, we take profits. And because we've taken equal

368
00:23:11,759 --> 00:23:17,429
lows, we can have a rally. Again, since we had this high,

369
00:23:17,579 --> 00:23:20,459
take out these equal highs here, we've never came back to

370
00:23:20,459 --> 00:23:24,329
this high yet. So that would be the next level of upside I

371
00:23:24,329 --> 00:23:27,569
would expect you to be traded to, and if we get momentum

372
00:23:27,569 --> 00:23:31,769
through that, because see these double tops taken out. Okay.

373
00:23:32,159 --> 00:23:37,199
And that's pretty much what I teach new traders start with.

374
00:23:37,859 --> 00:23:41,279
If they're stuck only on this timeframe, it takes a lot of

375
00:23:41,279 --> 00:23:44,489
time for the setups to form. They cannot do anything else

376
00:23:44,489 --> 00:23:46,859
until it trades to these types of levels. Why? Because this

377
00:23:46,859 --> 00:23:50,279
is a highest probability levels. Yes, you can do day trading

378
00:23:50,279 --> 00:23:55,109
entries. But again, this whole teaching was focused

379
00:23:55,139 --> 00:23:58,529
primarily on individuals that cannot be on short term

380
00:23:58,529 --> 00:24:01,919
timeframes. They don't have A lot of time, and he had to be

381
00:24:01,919 --> 00:24:03,659
looking for something on a daily chart.

382
00:24:04,230 --> 00:24:06,360
This is how you would do it. So

383
00:24:07,769 --> 00:24:10,889
there's a lot of things that, you know, we could add to

384
00:24:10,889 --> 00:24:13,349
this. But I don't want to do too much of that. Because

385
00:24:13,349 --> 00:24:17,369
again, if you're on this timeframe, you're probably very new

386
00:24:17,819 --> 00:24:20,309
in your development. And I don't want to give you a lot of

387
00:24:20,309 --> 00:24:24,059
things to worry with. Just start looking for double tops and

388
00:24:24,059 --> 00:24:28,019
old highs and whole lows and double bottoms and draw circles

389
00:24:28,019 --> 00:24:31,409
on that make a notation on your chart, this this line, this

390
00:24:31,409 --> 00:24:34,199
high here and this high here. Yes, we went above a little

391
00:24:34,199 --> 00:24:37,409
bit rejected, but these are relatively equal highs. So price

392
00:24:37,409 --> 00:24:40,349
could come back through that. Again, it does. But notice it

393
00:24:40,349 --> 00:24:44,429
leaves this high intact. So this is an untapped area of

394
00:24:44,429 --> 00:24:46,829
liquidity. And you're probably saying, well, who has a stop

395
00:24:46,829 --> 00:24:50,219
up there? Large funds. That's what the market reaches for.

396
00:24:50,519 --> 00:24:53,579
It's not your retail stop. Now your retail stock is going to

397
00:24:53,579 --> 00:24:56,279
be placed where the books tell you and it's gonna be the

398
00:24:56,279 --> 00:25:00,749
wrong place, but the markets go to large look quiddity pools

399
00:25:01,049 --> 00:25:05,759
on the basis of other institutional traders, or large funds,

400
00:25:06,089 --> 00:25:09,119
the markets all designed to go after that, okay, your retail

401
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:10,889
stuff, they can't see it, they don't know where it's at,

402
00:25:10,889 --> 00:25:13,859
it's not important to them, because you're such a small

403
00:25:13,859 --> 00:25:16,829
little blip on the radar. In terms of liquidity, they can't

404
00:25:16,829 --> 00:25:20,849
pay anything out with you. So, large funds, they're trading

405
00:25:21,059 --> 00:25:25,409
billions of dollars many times. And that will have a large

406
00:25:25,409 --> 00:25:28,229
area of interest for buying and selling. And the market will

407
00:25:28,229 --> 00:25:31,109
gravitate to those levels. But they're going to be relative

408
00:25:31,109 --> 00:25:37,469
to these highs, these lows and these double tops and double

409
00:25:37,469 --> 00:25:40,649
bottoms, you can see how the market goes right to them, and

410
00:25:40,649 --> 00:25:42,569
then starts to look for the other side of the marketplace.

411
00:25:43,439 --> 00:25:47,699
So a higher time standpoint, basically, all you're gonna be

412
00:25:47,699 --> 00:25:51,059
looking for are obvious double tops and double bottoms and

413
00:25:51,059 --> 00:25:53,999
single highs and single lows, and where the market most

414
00:25:53,999 --> 00:25:57,389
recently came from. Just find the opposite direction where

415
00:25:57,389 --> 00:26:00,629
the liquidity would be below the lows right here. Now this

416
00:26:00,659 --> 00:26:04,889
if it wasn't double bottom or equal lows like this, say this

417
00:26:04,889 --> 00:26:07,379
was not a low, this would be sufficient and not because

418
00:26:07,379 --> 00:26:10,559
that's where it cell stops would be after running by stops

419
00:26:10,559 --> 00:26:14,669
above here, the markets go lower seeking what liquidity

420
00:26:15,689 --> 00:26:17,729
wants to take that once it takes that liquidity out below

421
00:26:17,729 --> 00:26:19,949
that low, it's going to do what he says we're going to keep

422
00:26:19,949 --> 00:26:22,829
going lower for a lower level of liquidity, which it

423
00:26:22,829 --> 00:26:25,229
shouldn't, because we've already had many attempts to go

424
00:26:25,229 --> 00:26:29,549
here, here, here, here. And then we're out of the way. So if

425
00:26:29,549 --> 00:26:32,039
we go below here, we want to see it trade higher. What's it

426
00:26:32,039 --> 00:26:35,789
going to reach for? We have this short term high, it reached

427
00:26:35,849 --> 00:26:41,759
above, and then we have this high rate in here. Okay, so

428
00:26:41,999 --> 00:26:44,219
there's liquidity above that one, and we certainly have

429
00:26:44,219 --> 00:26:46,739
liquidity above there. And ultimately, we get momentum above

430
00:26:46,739 --> 00:26:49,679
that. We could see the stocks rally out and that would be an

431
00:26:49,679 --> 00:26:52,409
agreement with bullish dollar as well, because the first

432
00:26:53,549 --> 00:26:57,539
currency in this pair is the dollar against the yen. So

433
00:26:58,049 --> 00:27:01,859
dollar strength in the index. would promote strength in this

434
00:27:01,859 --> 00:27:02,159
paper.

435
00:27:10,019 --> 00:27:12,719
Hopefully you enjoyed this presentation. You can find more

436
00:27:12,719 --> 00:27:14,759
at the inner circle trader.com