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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:16
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2 |1 |00:00:06 ~-~-> 00:00:13 |ICT: So welcome back. And today is September, 22 2025 this is focus on
3 |2 |00:00:13 ~-~-> 00:00:20 |index futures, and I'll be looking at the December contract for NASDAQ E Mini
4 |3 |00:00:20 ~-~-> 00:00:27 |futures. When I'm in a little bit better of a state of mind. I just lost a member
5 |4 |00:00:27 ~-~-> 00:00:33 |of my family. And if you're a pet lover, if you're a pet parent, you you know
6 |5 |00:00:34 ~-~-> 00:00:38 |what it's like losing some so I'm kind of going through that, and I'm not quite
7 |6 |00:00:38 ~-~-> 00:00:42 |really there. So we're just going to look at the NQ. I will be ringing in the
8 |7 |00:00:43 ~-~-> 00:00:50 |ES as well, and I have a little bit more capacity to spend focus on that, in
9 |8 |00:00:50 ~-~-> 00:00:58 |addition to just the NQ. Right on left hand side, we have the December
10 |9 |00:00:58 ~-~-> 00:01:03 |contract, Christmas NQ daily chart, and on the right hand side, it's the five
11 |10 |00:01:03 ~-~-> 00:01:08 |minute chart, as I mentioned, we worked off this volume imbalance, and really
12 |11 |00:01:08 ~-~-> 00:01:14 |had a nice run up here last week Friday. We used the volume imbalance, as I
13 |12 |00:01:14 ~-~-> 00:01:19 |mentioned in the recording for Friday, and I told you, have these quadrant
14 |13 |00:01:19 ~-~-> 00:01:23 |levels on your chart, and the market opened below, and we're going to look at
15 |14 |00:01:23 ~-~-> 00:01:27 |the opening range in the next slide here. But we opened lower than where we
16 |15 |00:01:27 ~-~-> 00:01:32 |closed on Friday. We traded lower down into consequent encouragement, which is
17 |16 |00:01:32 ~-~-> 00:01:36 |a little bit below it, and then rejected all of that and came out and exploded to
18 |17 |00:01:36 ~-~-> 00:01:41 |all time highs above 25,000 so now I want to counsel you remember how I
19 |18 |00:01:41 ~-~-> 00:01:47 |taught you last week how it's very important to never really try to expect
20 |19 |00:01:47 ~-~-> 00:01:51 |or pick the top in a marketed string at all time highs, because it can just keep
21 |20 |00:01:51 ~-~-> 00:01:56 |going and you have no idea where it's going to go. Nobody does like I don't
22 |21 |00:01:56 ~-~-> 00:02:00 |know. Nobody else is going to know. So the only thing you do is focus on taking
23 |22 |00:02:00 ~-~-> 00:02:05 |continuous buy signals until they no longer work. That's the only strategy
24 |23 |00:02:05 ~-~-> 00:02:08 |that's going to hold up over time. And when you're trading with a market, it's
25 |24 |00:02:08 ~-~-> 00:02:14 |continuously it can all time highs over here on the London session, London kill
26 |25 |00:02:14 ~-~-> 00:02:20 |zone here, between one o'clock and 5am we have a nice bears fair value gap
27 |26 |00:02:20 ~-~-> 00:02:29 |here. It drops down into the consequence encroachment of that premium wick. So
28 |27 |00:02:29 ~-~-> 00:02:33 |it's going to act as a discount array here. And notice it goes down in the
29 |28 |00:02:33 ~-~-> 00:02:37 |lower half of it. But it doesn't spend much time there. This goes below here,
30 |29 |00:02:38 ~-~-> 00:02:42 |accumulates at the consequence level there, and now look what it's doing. It
31 |30 |00:02:42 ~-~-> 00:02:47 |fails to touch it again, and then rallies up. Shift in market structure,
32 |31 |00:02:47 ~-~-> 00:02:54 |blows your fair value gap now during the New York am session. Now I'm saying that
33 |32 |00:02:54 ~-~-> 00:02:59 |because it's basically 7am to 11am you can break that up into pre market
34 |33 |00:02:59 ~-~-> 00:03:06 |session, or the am session, regular trading hours at 930 to 11. Okay, that
35 |34 |00:03:06 ~-~-> 00:03:11 |I'm just encapsulating this, this for brevity sake. And we have a bullish fair
36 |35 |00:03:11 ~-~-> 00:03:16 |value gap here, trades into that perfectly runs higher. We have a,
37 |36 |00:03:18 ~-~-> 00:03:22 |essentially a measuring gap. So if you look at the low to that gap there. It's
38 |37 |00:03:22 ~-~-> 00:03:27 |about halfway between there and there, so between here and here, that's in
39 |38 |00:03:27 ~-~-> 00:03:32 |close proximity to where a halfway point would be. And then we have a fair value
40 |39 |00:03:32 ~-~-> 00:03:38 |gap that stays open, rallies off of that full shoulder block change in state
41 |40 |00:03:38 ~-~-> 00:03:42 |delivery after a retracement the bodies respecting that, and then rallies
42 |41 |00:03:42 ~-~-> 00:03:49 |higher, creating an amazing, in my opinion, run above the 25,000 mark. Now,
43 |42 |00:03:49 ~-~-> 00:03:55 |if we look at this through the lens of a one minute, we can see that we had
44 |43 |00:03:55 ~-~-> 00:03:59 |relative equal lows here in Friday's session. And we're looking at regular
45 |44 |00:03:59 ~-~-> 00:04:02 |trading hours now, not electronic trading hours. So this will showcase the
46 |45 |00:04:02 ~-~-> 00:04:08 |difference between previous days close and today's regular session opening at
47 |46 |00:04:08 ~-~-> 00:04:13 |930 Eastern time. So sell side liquidity here, the market opens below that. The
48 |47 |00:04:13 ~-~-> 00:04:19 |opening range here, the first 30 minutes of trading is encapsulated with this
49 |48 |00:04:19 ~-~-> 00:04:24 |darker gray box, and I've graded that as well. So here's the lower quadrant,
50 |49 |00:04:24 ~-~-> 00:04:29 |consequent origin. Upper quadrant, the market opening here trades up to
51 |50 |00:04:29 ~-~-> 00:04:33 |consequent origin, which is 70% likelihood it's going to do that there's
52 |51 |00:04:33 ~-~-> 00:04:37 |a cap lower and then we trade right up to the quadrant. The upper quadrant,
53 |52 |00:04:37 ~-~-> 00:04:42 |rather hits it perfectly, to the tick, and then drops back down to the lower
54 |53 |00:04:42 ~-~-> 00:04:45 |quadrant the bodies respected, but it also trades one more time into this
55 |54 |00:04:45 ~-~-> 00:04:50 |relatively cool low liquidity pool. Tags that one more time break away. Gap
56 |55 |00:04:51 ~-~-> 00:04:57 |trades above short term highs if I pull share value gap there in a minor sell
57 |56 |00:04:57 ~-~-> 00:05:01 |side liquidity pool after trading two last. Friday's high, but not breaching
58 |57 |00:05:01 ~-~-> 00:05:06 |it trades lower swipes the minor sell side that would have been trailed on
59 |58 |00:05:06 ~-~-> 00:05:10 |longs, trading into the bullish fair value gap there. Then we have another
60 |59 |00:05:10 ~-~-> 00:05:14 |run higher shift in market structure on a lower time frame here, bullish fair
61 |60 |00:05:14 ~-~-> 00:05:18 |value gap trades to it here, and notice it doesn't even trade to consequent
62 |61 |00:05:18 ~-~-> 00:05:23 |encouragement, but reverses its role in delivering lower prices. Now I'm back in
63 |62 |00:05:23 ~-~-> 00:05:28 |sync with going higher, rips above last Friday's daily high, buy side liquidity
64 |63 |00:05:28 ~-~-> 00:05:34 |pool, and then creates a retracement in here. We're going to look at and scrub
65 |64 |00:05:34 ~-~-> 00:05:38 |the chart over a little bit, but notice this box in here. This is all going to
66 |65 |00:05:38 ~-~-> 00:05:46 |be condensed and shortened in size as I move forward into the chart. Here's that
67 |66 |00:05:46 ~-~-> 00:05:50 |area I was referring to. Now we get to see the entirety of the day at the time
68 |67 |00:05:50 ~-~-> 00:05:54 |of the snapshot. Those are those highs for last Friday's daily high side
69 |68 |00:05:54 ~-~-> 00:06:00 |liquidity pool hits it. It drops down, which is a five minute bullish order
70 |69 |00:06:00 ~-~-> 00:06:04 |block. So I showed you a five minute chart first. That's this order block
71 |70 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:07 |there. So it's going to look different because you're looking at through the
72 |71 |00:06:07 ~-~-> 00:06:10 |lens of a one minute chart. So when you're annotating your charts, make sure
73 |72 |00:06:10 ~-~-> 00:06:14 |you're keeping track of what PD array you're annotating on a higher time frame
74 |73 |00:06:14 ~-~-> 00:06:17 |when you drop down a lower time frame, because this is going to be much more
75 |74 |00:06:17 ~-~-> 00:06:21 |salient when you view it from that five minute chart again, and we rally higher.
76 |75 |00:06:21 ~-~-> 00:06:26 |And this keeps on pressing higher. Notice, there's no lunchtime macro, no
77 |76 |00:06:26 ~-~-> 00:06:32 |retracement back to here's 10am fine. Hello. Here's that one, and we have this
78 |77 |00:06:32 ~-~-> 00:06:36 |one here to noon. Well, neither one of those were even traded to because we're
79 |78 |00:06:36 ~-~-> 00:06:40 |blasting off. The markets becoming parabolic. So when it starts to do
80 |79 |00:06:40 ~-~-> 00:06:44 |things like this. I'm not calling a top. It just means that we're probably near
81 |80 |00:06:44 ~-~-> 00:06:48 |some kind of an intermediate term height forming. It's, I don't believe it's
82 |81 |00:06:48 ~-~-> 00:06:52 |there yet, but it's chilling characteristics of it possibly, you
83 |82 |00:06:52 ~-~-> 00:06:54 |know, forming, maybe this week,
84 |83 |00:07:04 ~-~-> 00:07:08 |all right, folks, thanks for your patience today. I said I was going to
85 |84 |00:07:08 ~-~-> 00:07:14 |have one for you this morning, but just not feeling it right now, so I will talk
86 |85 |00:07:14 ~-~-> 00:07:17 |to you tomorrow, Lord willing, until I talk to you, then wish good luck and
87 |86 |00:07:17 ~-~-> 00:07:17 |good trading.