ICT YT - 2025-05-29 - 2025 Lecture Series - NQ Review 05-29-2025
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:13
| 1 | 00:00:00 --> 00:00:05 | ICT: Good morning, folks. How are you just a quick little review. If you've |
| 2 | 00:00:05 --> 00:00:10 | been following along on my x account, I've been giving analysis and short |
| 3 | 00:00:10 --> 00:00:17 | little video, pre market analysis and whatnot, giving levels, targets and just |
| 4 | 00:00:17 --> 00:00:21 | observations on what I believe the market was going to do this week. So |
| 5 | 00:00:21 --> 00:00:28 | this closes out my week. The target I gave for this week's trading in Nasdaq |
| 6 | 00:00:28 --> 00:00:33 | futures was delivered, if you recall, and if you haven't, you can find all |
| 7 | 00:00:33 --> 00:00:38 | this information on the YouTube channel and the supplementary analysis videos |
| 8 | 00:00:38 --> 00:00:43 | I've posted on X so for the folks that are wondering about the telegram |
| 9 | 00:00:43 --> 00:00:49 | channel, I'll be using that for study notes. Okay, so you won't have to be in |
| 10 | 00:00:49 --> 00:00:56 | there to get the real time stuff, because that ends this month, and I'll |
| 11 | 00:00:56 --> 00:01:02 | be sharing pretty much like summaries, things that are noteworthy. I'll be |
| 12 | 00:01:02 --> 00:01:07 | doing a project in June where I'm showcasing how, if I was using |
| 13 | 00:01:07 --> 00:01:15 | electronic journaling versus the handwritten, high touch versus the high |
| 14 | 00:01:15 --> 00:01:20 | tech approach to journaling, how I would go about doing it. It doesn't mean that |
| 15 | 00:01:20 --> 00:01:24 | this is what you should do. It just means that I'm answering a question that |
| 16 | 00:01:24 --> 00:01:29 | most of my students have asked me for a number of years. Even charter member |
| 17 | 00:01:29 --> 00:01:32 | students to have gone through my private mentorship, they've asked if I could |
| 18 | 00:01:32 --> 00:01:39 | share how I would journal, and they'll be doing that the last week of June. So |
| 19 | 00:01:40 --> 00:01:45 | anyway, with all that monolog out of the way, this is a daily, I'm sorry, excuse |
| 20 | 00:01:45 --> 00:01:51 | me. This is a weekly chart of the continuous contracts for NASDAQ. And you |
| 21 | 00:01:51 --> 00:01:56 | can find that on trading view with the symbol N, Q, number one, exclamation |
| 22 | 00:01:56 --> 00:02:00 | point. And it's important to use that when you're using higher Time Frame |
| 23 | 00:02:00 --> 00:02:05 | charts because it's it's a better way of showing continuity and price delivery, |
| 24 | 00:02:05 --> 00:02:11 | because the front month or nearby contracts are always, always spotty when |
| 25 | 00:02:11 --> 00:02:14 | you look back in the higher Time Frame, even if you change it to a monthly or |
| 26 | 00:02:14 --> 00:02:19 | weekly chart, you're not getting the true perspective. So a continuous chart |
| 27 | 00:02:19 --> 00:02:27 | is helpful in that regard. So this wick here, I did an analysis on about a month |
| 28 | 00:02:27 --> 00:02:31 | ago, and you can look at it again on all the content I posted on exit on this |
| 29 | 00:02:31 --> 00:02:37 | YouTube channel. I said this wick here, while we were below it, down here, we |
| 30 | 00:02:37 --> 00:02:41 | would gravitate up into it, and I was looking at the lower half of it. So this |
| 31 | 00:02:41 --> 00:02:49 | line here, the 22,001 03, level, that's the consequent encroachment, or midpoint |
| 32 | 00:02:49 --> 00:02:56 | of this wick. So I'm only interested in this half, and then grading that in |
| 33 | 00:02:56 --> 00:03:08 | quadrants. So what we do here in this area is salient to what we'll do in next |
| 34 | 00:03:09 --> 00:03:16 | month or five or six weeks. Ultimately, it's likely to see these highs get taken |
| 35 | 00:03:16 --> 00:03:21 | out, because I'm not trying to pick a top so the market has been shunning the |
| 36 | 00:03:22 --> 00:03:27 | traditional bearish seasonal tendency. So when it does that type of thing, it's |
| 37 | 00:03:27 --> 00:03:33 | usually very bullish. So I want to keep my focus in the lower half of this wick |
| 38 | 00:03:35 --> 00:03:39 | before I marry the idea that it's absolutely going to go above here. Okay, |
| 39 | 00:03:39 --> 00:03:45 | so while I'm submitting to the idea that order flow is bullish, it's likely to go |
| 40 | 00:03:45 --> 00:03:50 | up there, but I'm not hardlining that it's going there. I want to see how it |
| 41 | 00:03:50 --> 00:03:53 | delivers inside the lower half of this wick, which is why I have all the |
| 42 | 00:03:53 --> 00:04:00 | gradient levels here. Okay, so if we take our attention down from this in the |
| 43 | 00:04:00 --> 00:04:05 | weekly chart inside this area here, we'll look at the daily chart and see |
| 44 | 00:04:05 --> 00:04:09 | the fair value gap I was mentioning this weekend a couple weeks ago. You take a |
| 45 | 00:04:09 --> 00:04:14 | look at the daily chart here. This is the fair value gap. So this candle |
| 46 | 00:04:14 --> 00:04:29 | sticks high. This candle candlesticks low, and it's a civi, so we have this |
| 47 | 00:04:29 --> 00:04:34 | inefficiency, and I have gradient levels in it. So it's the upper quadrant, |
| 48 | 00:04:34 --> 00:04:38 | consequent encroachment in green lower quadrant. And then the low and high is |
| 49 | 00:04:38 --> 00:04:44 | obviously shown by the rectangle being applied. So if you go back and look at |
| 50 | 00:04:44 --> 00:04:52 | what we were doing when price was trading in here, my commentary was |
| 51 | 00:04:52 --> 00:04:59 | suggesting that this low, I wanted to see it continue, obviously. But if it |
| 52 | 00:04:59 --> 00:05:02 | were to drop. Below that low. I wanted to see it act as institutional order |
| 53 | 00:05:02 --> 00:05:07 | flow entry drill, which is just simply a partial entry into an imbalance. Okay, |
| 54 | 00:05:07 --> 00:05:12 | so we we had that actually deliver that's probably random, and then the |
| 55 | 00:05:12 --> 00:05:17 | market trades higher, comes right back down into immediate rebalance. This |
| 56 | 00:05:17 --> 00:05:22 | candles ticks high, and I'll annotate that for you here. Now I could get |
| 57 | 00:05:22 --> 00:05:26 | carried away here and make this video very, very long, but that's not my |
| 58 | 00:05:26 --> 00:05:31 | interest, but the immediate rebalance here and then sends it higher up into |
| 59 | 00:05:31 --> 00:05:36 | lower quadrant of that daily fair value gap, so that, for me, satisfies my |
| 60 | 00:05:36 --> 00:05:42 | weekly objective. I'm certainly content with that. Everything delivered as I was |
| 61 | 00:05:42 --> 00:05:48 | expecting. Everything I gave guidance for on x this week has been just |
| 62 | 00:05:48 --> 00:05:53 | perfectly delivered. So it's really hard to to be upset when the market does |
| 63 | 00:05:53 --> 00:05:59 | that. So let's take a closer look inside of the lower time frames. We'll drop |
| 64 | 00:05:59 --> 00:06:04 | down to a 15 in time frame next. Here we are on the 15 minute time frame. You can |
| 65 | 00:06:04 --> 00:06:11 | see the relative equal highs here. So I went over this in the X analysis video |
| 66 | 00:06:11 --> 00:06:16 | clips and whatnot and posts. So if you see these relative equal highs here, |
| 67 | 00:06:16 --> 00:06:21 | that was a upside objective. And then ultimately, if it gets above that, we |
| 68 | 00:06:21 --> 00:06:25 | would see it run up into that daily fair value gap that you can see they shaped |
| 69 | 00:06:25 --> 00:06:28 | up in here, lower quadrant slammed by the bodies. Look at that. That's |
| 70 | 00:06:28 --> 00:06:34 | absolutely beautiful. And then we have a break lower what we do today and Friday |
| 71 | 00:06:34 --> 00:06:37 | is really of no consequence to me, because I could care less. I have things |
| 72 | 00:06:37 --> 00:06:41 | I take care of my personal life. So this will be the last discussion I have over |
| 73 | 00:06:41 --> 00:06:46 | price action. So I want to take a look at this with you. And this is a 15 |
| 74 | 00:06:46 --> 00:06:57 | minute city, which you can see over here. This should be anchored like that |
| 75 | 00:06:57 --> 00:07:04 | body to wick dropping down in here, quadrant, consequent encroachment in |
| 76 | 00:07:04 --> 00:07:10 | green. So since it was a city, it's going to change this character to that |
| 77 | 00:07:11 --> 00:07:15 | of something bullish, positive balance outside efficiency that's just below |
| 78 | 00:07:16 --> 00:07:21 | this 15 minute inversion, fair value gap. We consolidate, rally up. I broke |
| 79 | 00:07:21 --> 00:07:28 | this down in here with these two wicks on x, and it was just perfectly |
| 80 | 00:07:28 --> 00:07:36 | delivered as a long entry, trading up into the 21,005 62.25, level that |
| 81 | 00:07:36 --> 00:07:40 | relative equal high. And then market breaks lower, all the way back down to |
| 82 | 00:07:40 --> 00:07:46 | the low of the 15 minute inversion fair value gap, but specifically to |
| 83 | 00:07:46 --> 00:07:53 | consequent encouragement of this candlestick right here. So the Mohawk, |
| 84 | 00:07:53 --> 00:07:56 | your little coloring outside the lines that we allow for with the wicks, |
| 85 | 00:07:56 --> 00:08:02 | because they can do damage the bodies tell the narrative. Bodies are |
| 86 | 00:08:02 --> 00:08:09 | respecting the lower quadrant we wick down touch the consequent encroachment |
| 87 | 00:08:10 --> 00:08:15 | or midpoint of this bicycle outside efficiency always includes your volume |
| 88 | 00:08:15 --> 00:08:22 | imbalance for the higher body. That'll be a more specific topic that we'll |
| 89 | 00:08:22 --> 00:08:30 | cover in the book. Drop down here is FOMC. And then we rip higher trading |
| 90 | 00:08:30 --> 00:08:37 | aggressively into this run right here is Nvidia related. So the market trades up |
| 91 | 00:08:37 --> 00:08:41 | into the lower quadrant of that daily. Everybody got there. So. |