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2 |1 |00:00:31 ~-~-> 00:00:37 |ICT: Folks, welcome back. So we're going to be looking at the summary of
3 |2 |00:00:37 ~-~-> 00:00:43 |weekending. March, 28 2025 I'm not going to do every day, obviously, because I do
4 |3 |00:00:43 ~-~-> 00:00:50 |what I do on x and on the telegram channel, but the NASDAQ, if you take a
5 |4 |00:00:50 ~-~-> 00:00:51 |look at this,
6 |5 |00:00:54 ~-~-> 00:01:01 |this is our June 2025, really sharp for Nasdaq futures,
7 |6 |00:01:02 ~-~-> 00:01:11 |and if you recall watching last week's weekly summary video, if you haven't
8 |7 |00:01:11 ~-~-> 00:01:15 |watched that, it's beneficial for you to watch that first before watching this
9 |8 |00:01:15 ~-~-> 00:01:20 |one. So if you look at the daily chart, we mentioned that
10 |9 |00:01:24 ~-~-> 00:01:29 |this area ran in here. Thought that we could
11 |10 |00:01:29 ~-~-> 00:01:36 |create up into that here and then reject that and create back down and reach for
12 |11 |00:01:36 ~-~-> 00:01:41 |this low. Now I was incorrect in the sense that I was off by a couple handles
13 |12 |00:01:41 ~-~-> 00:01:45 |because it didn't get to that low, but overall it was pretty good, close enough
14 |13 |00:01:45 ~-~-> 00:01:52 |for government work. So let's kind of like break this down a little bit inside
15 |14 |00:01:52 ~-~-> 00:01:56 |of all these wicks in here. I mentioned this in the telegram channel, when you
16 |15 |00:01:56 ~-~-> 00:02:00 |looking at price action, and it's doing things like this, and we have traded
17 |16 |00:02:00 ~-~-> 00:02:04 |below it, but we're still remaining bearish. What I like to look for is
18 |17 |00:02:04 ~-~-> 00:02:13 |inside that area of long legged shadows or tails on the candlesticks, now above
19 |18 |00:02:13 ~-~-> 00:02:18 |the high of a candle that's usually called wick, but down below it, tails,
20 |19 |00:02:18 ~-~-> 00:02:24 |shadows, whatever you want to call it, but when the market trades lower, and
21 |20 |00:02:24 ~-~-> 00:02:30 |I'm bearish, I like that. I like to know where the consequent encroachment is on
22 |21 |00:02:30 ~-~-> 00:02:35 |the longest of the wicks. If there's multiple wicks in here, or in this case,
23 |22 |00:02:35 ~-~-> 00:02:43 |tails, that's this one here. So if you look at that range from the open down to
24 |23 |00:02:43 ~-~-> 00:02:47 |the low of it, half of that's consequent encroachment. If you note that and draw
25 |24 |00:02:47 ~-~-> 00:02:52 |that out in time, you'll see that that's pretty much as far as the market's going
26 |25 |00:02:52 ~-~-> 00:02:57 |to trade to now, if you don't know this concept that I've been teaching for a
27 |26 |00:02:57 ~-~-> 00:03:02 |while now, it's something that you should go back and look at your charts,
28 |27 |00:03:03 ~-~-> 00:03:08 |find it in hindsight. Collect lots of examples of it, and you'll start seeing
29 |28 |00:03:08 ~-~-> 00:03:15 |the foundation to my gray pool areas, where it's a PD array that's using the
30 |29 |00:03:15 ~-~-> 00:03:21 |wicks themselves and two or more consequent encroachment levels that
31 |30 |00:03:21 ~-~-> 00:03:26 |constitute a gray pull. So while that's not the case here, it's just simply a
32 |31 |00:03:26 ~-~-> 00:03:32 |consequent encroachment mid tail or shadow of this longest leg
33 |32 |00:03:34 ~-~-> 00:03:40 |candlesticks formation here, with that below the opening price.
34 |33 |00:03:42 ~-~-> 00:03:48 |It's above that volume imbalance that I mentioned last Saturday, before we would
35 |34 |00:03:48 ~-~-> 00:03:55 |get to that premium wick consequent encroachment. And why am I calling it a
36 |35 |00:03:55 ~-~-> 00:04:01 |premium wick consequent encroachment? Because the market's down here and
37 |36 |00:04:01 ~-~-> 00:04:07 |trading up to it on Tuesday, Wednesday, then falls out of bed and aims towards
38 |37 |00:04:07 ~-~-> 00:04:11 |that low I mentioned that we would likely do after getting up into that
39 |38 |00:04:11 ~-~-> 00:04:20 |area. Okay, so the initial draw was this volume imbalance, but because the market
40 |39 |00:04:20 ~-~-> 00:04:27 |is volatile, and it can trade through it. It trades to it and to the
41 |40 |00:04:27 ~-~-> 00:04:34 |consequent correction of this long legged handle, stick doji type formation
42 |41 |00:04:34 ~-~-> 00:04:41 |underneath it in this area in here, I want to talk a little bit about options.
43 |42 |00:04:42 ~-~-> 00:04:46 |Now it's going to be a soft roll out in this conversation, because this is going
44 |43 |00:04:46 ~-~-> 00:04:49 |to it's going to be a very short video. And in the past, you've heard me say
45 |44 |00:04:49 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |things like that, and I end up going for a long, long time. As of right now, I'm
46 |45 |00:04:55 ~-~-> 00:04:56 |not in the
47 |46 |00:04:59 ~-~-> 00:05:01 |i. Not able to do that. So
48 |47 |00:05:01 ~-~-> 00:05:06 |we'll have to just do the small videos and be content with that still. But the
49 |48 |00:05:07 ~-~-> 00:05:12 |the run up into this volume imbalance and as much as that premium wick
50 |49 |00:05:12 ~-~-> 00:05:19 |consequent encroachment, if we were to anticipate that very run down here now,
51 |50 |00:05:19 ~-~-> 00:05:24 |I hope I can talk like this now because I outlined it before it happened. So
52 |51 |00:05:24 ~-~-> 00:05:31 |last Saturday, I mentioned that we would draw up here and then reject and trade
53 |52 |00:05:31 ~-~-> 00:05:38 |lower to go back below this low. That remains to be seen. If it happens on
54 |53 |00:05:38 ~-~-> 00:05:48 |Sundays, opening trading into Monday, first action, but assuming that this was
55 |54 |00:05:48 ~-~-> 00:05:54 |something that you wanted to navigate, there are things that we can do that are
56 |55 |00:05:54 ~-~-> 00:06:02 |outside the futures market And the CFD market, and it involves the options
57 |56 |00:06:02 ~-~-> 00:06:08 |market. So one of the things I like doing, and what I used to do as a
58 |57 |00:06:08 ~-~-> 00:06:14 |younger man, was look for weekly option place. And that means that if I could
59 |58 |00:06:14 ~-~-> 00:06:19 |predict real close, it doesn't have to be perfect, but this was the number one
60 |59 |00:06:19 ~-~-> 00:06:22 |reason why I was wanting to know what the weekly high and the weekly low would
61 |60 |00:06:22 ~-~-> 00:06:27 |likely be, because I could take an opportunity and trade options with it.
62 |61 |00:06:28 ~-~-> 00:06:31 |Now, originally, when I first started, I was interested in buying very, very
63 |62 |00:06:31 ~-~-> 00:06:37 |cheap, undervalued options and hopefully see them balloon up in profit. And I
64 |63 |00:06:37 ~-~-> 00:06:42 |found out quickly that I wasn't that good at that. And my very first trade,
65 |64 |00:06:42 ~-~-> 00:06:45 |and many of you that's been following me for a long time know that my very first
66 |65 |00:06:45 ~-~-> 00:06:50 |trade was a losing trade where I lost half of the amount of money I put up for
67 |66 |00:06:50 ~-~-> 00:06:56 |the premium of an orange juice option. I spent $1,500 and overnight I lost to 700
68 |67 |00:06:56 ~-~-> 00:07:03 |a little bit more than $750 and that was a very jarring event for me, because
69 |68 |00:07:03 ~-~-> 00:07:07 |back then, you know, as a 20 year old, you know, seven $50 I wasn't even making
70 |69 |00:07:07 ~-~-> 00:07:15 |that a week gross before taxes taken out. So it's, it was something that hurt
71 |70 |00:07:15 ~-~-> 00:07:21 |me. But eventually I started thinking myself, somebody made that $750 and they
72 |71 |00:07:21 ~-~-> 00:07:26 |made it overnight. So what were they doing? Well, they were writing the
73 |72 |00:07:26 ~-~-> 00:07:33 |option that I purchased, so I was going in and buying an outright long option.
74 |73 |00:07:34 ~-~-> 00:07:39 |And then the market itself said, No, you're wrong. The very next day, market
75 |74 |00:07:39 ~-~-> 00:07:47 |opened up and the option value fell out of bed to tune up 50% or more. So the
76 |75 |00:07:47 ~-~-> 00:07:53 |the option writer, the person that was on the other side of the transaction
77 |76 |00:07:53 ~-~-> 00:07:59 |that sold the option for me to purchase, they were able to collect a premium
78 |77 |00:08:00 ~-~-> 00:08:06 |increase in their equity on the trade, but the value of the option diminished.
79 |78 |00:08:07 ~-~-> 00:08:13 |So they are basically they were shorting the position that I purchased the long
80 |79 |00:08:13 ~-~-> 00:08:19 |option on. Said in a different way, in simpler terms, let's assume for a moment
81 |80 |00:08:19 ~-~-> 00:08:26 |that you felt that the Nasdaq futures should go to this area and then trade
82 |81 |00:08:26 ~-~-> 00:08:35 |lower. You could trade the SBX option market. And I know a lot of you'd like
83 |82 |00:08:35 ~-~-> 00:08:40 |to trade the spy, but the SBX is actually a little bit better. You have a
84 |83 |00:08:40 ~-~-> 00:08:47 |lot more options in terms of the strike prices. And what a strike price is is
85 |84 |00:08:47 ~-~-> 00:08:55 |the determination of what value the option is going to be based on. So for
86 |85 |00:08:55 ~-~-> 00:08:59 |instance, if we were looking at the market likely trading up into this area
87 |86 |00:08:59 ~-~-> 00:09:05 |and then becoming bearish the rest of the week, we could look to sell all
88 |87 |00:09:05 ~-~-> 00:09:12 |options above this area here. Now I'm not suggesting that we're going to do
89 |88 |00:09:12 ~-~-> 00:09:18 |this with Nasdaq futures options. I'm suggesting that if you're interested in
90 |89 |00:09:18 ~-~-> 00:09:21 |this, and I'm only going to spend a couple weeks on it, because I don't
91 |90 |00:09:21 ~-~-> 00:09:25 |think that it's for everyone, but I have mentioned in the past where I will cover
92 |91 |00:09:25 ~-~-> 00:09:32 |how I used to do it when I was younger man. You can take a small account and
93 |92 |00:09:32 ~-~-> 00:09:37 |parlay it up over time to a point where you could carve out your own living with
94 |93 |00:09:37 ~-~-> 00:09:42 |it and never do a whole lot of trades. You're looking for one really good setup
95 |94 |00:09:42 ~-~-> 00:09:47 |per week, and you're holding the trade for about a week or so, and then you're
96 |95 |00:09:47 ~-~-> 00:09:51 |getting out. You're not trying to get rich on every single trade. You're not
97 |96 |00:09:51 ~-~-> 00:09:56 |trying to make your options go 567, 100% increase all the time. You're just
98 |97 |00:09:56 ~-~-> 00:09:59 |trying to double your money. Maybe get a double, if you're lucky, get a triple.
99 |98 |00:09:59 ~-~-> 00:10:03 |I. Uh, but you don't even need to have that. Sometimes, if you just get a
100 |99 |00:10:03 ~-~-> 00:10:09 |single, you know, one for one, that's in itself many times what's potentially
101 |100 |00:10:09 ~-~-> 00:10:13 |more than you're probably earning at your job. So I kind of like want to toss
102 |101 |00:10:13 ~-~-> 00:10:17 |this out there, and I want you to think about how when we're looking at these
103 |102 |00:10:17 ~-~-> 00:10:21 |higher Time Frame daily moves, when we're spending time on these time frames
104 |103 |00:10:22 ~-~-> 00:10:29 |when there is a likely intermediate term or long term, higher low forming that
105 |104 |00:10:29 ~-~-> 00:10:35 |that presents this very opportunity where we can sell the option. Now, let
106 |105 |00:10:35 ~-~-> 00:10:39 |me make sure you understand this clearly, because the writer of the
107 |106 |00:10:39 ~-~-> 00:10:47 |option has a whole lot more risk than the purchaser of the option. So for
108 |107 |00:10:47 ~-~-> 00:10:52 |instance, let's say that you were going to and let's say this is the SBX market,
109 |108 |00:10:53 ~-~-> 00:10:54 |the cash market for S P,
110 |109 |00:10:56 ~-~-> 00:10:58 |the idea would be that
111 |110 |00:10:59 ~-~-> 00:11:04 |you're trying to pick a strike price above where you think the market's going
112 |111 |00:11:04 ~-~-> 00:11:08 |to turn and start trading lower. Now, ideally, if the
113 |112 |00:11:09 ~-~-> 00:11:10 |premiums,
114 |113 |00:11:12 ~-~-> 00:11:18 |like the put the call ratio and options tools that suggest when there's an
115 |114 |00:11:18 ~-~-> 00:11:21 |overvaluation or an undervaluation, and and I'll talk a little bit about that
116 |115 |00:11:21 ~-~-> 00:11:25 |when we get into it next week. A little bit more detail. But for now, I want you
117 |116 |00:11:25 ~-~-> 00:11:30 |to think about how you might be interested in seeing the opportunity of
118 |117 |00:11:30 ~-~-> 00:11:35 |selling call options. Now, a call option is the the right, but you're not
119 |118 |00:11:35 ~-~-> 00:11:42 |obligated to buy the underlying and that means, if you're selling call options on
120 |119 |00:11:42 ~-~-> 00:11:47 |SBX. What you're saying is you're given the opportunity for someone that wants
121 |120 |00:11:47 ~-~-> 00:11:54 |to buy a long call option, and if they buy it and it goes up, they potentially
122 |121 |00:11:54 ~-~-> 00:11:58 |have the right to exercise that and purchase it, but they're not obligated
123 |122 |00:11:58 ~-~-> 00:12:06 |to exercise the option, but they have a limited risk, meaning that whatever they
124 |123 |00:12:06 ~-~-> 00:12:10 |paid for the the option itself, that's the most plus the commission costs,
125 |124 |00:12:10 ~-~-> 00:12:14 |that's the that's the most they could ever lose on the transaction. You, on
126 |125 |00:12:14 ~-~-> 00:12:18 |the other hand, don't have that protection. You have a little bit
127 |126 |00:12:18 ~-~-> 00:12:24 |different risk paradigm there. So I want you to think about how there is
128 |127 |00:12:24 ~-~-> 00:12:29 |absolutely inherent risk to this. But when the market's predisposed to go
129 |128 |00:12:29 ~-~-> 00:12:34 |higher or lower on an intermediate term basis, what do you think that purchasers
130 |129 |00:12:34 ~-~-> 00:12:39 |of call options above these highs on Tuesday and Wednesday or this week that
131 |130 |00:12:39 ~-~-> 00:12:44 |just passed? How do you think they feel right now, when we're just sitting way
132 |131 |00:12:44 ~-~-> 00:12:49 |down here, their call options are becoming cheaper. They're getting less
133 |132 |00:12:49 ~-~-> 00:12:54 |likely to be profitable, and with the the effects of like theta and time
134 |133 |00:12:54 ~-~-> 00:13:01 |decay, it could really be diminishing over the course of just a few days. So
135 |134 |00:13:01 ~-~-> 00:13:06 |with that, I want you to take a look at how the market has traded on a weekly
136 |135 |00:13:06 ~-~-> 00:13:11 |and daily chart, and you're framing these types of setups on those two time
137 |136 |00:13:11 ~-~-> 00:13:17 |frames. So it's very, very high, higher Time Frame oriented for people to have
138 |137 |00:13:17 ~-~-> 00:13:23 |jobs that have a whole lot of affinity for wanting to learn how to trade. Don't
139 |138 |00:13:23 ~-~-> 00:13:28 |have a lot of money, but they don't have the ability or time or the luxury that
140 |139 |00:13:28 ~-~-> 00:13:33 |go into intraday trading like I teach primarily a higher Time Frame, working
141 |140 |00:13:33 ~-~-> 00:13:37 |class, Hero type approach. This is kind of like what I was trying to do, because
142 |141 |00:13:37 ~-~-> 00:13:43 |I was killing myself as a young man working and trying to do this while I
143 |142 |00:13:43 ~-~-> 00:13:48 |was driving around and taking great deals of risk, not paying attention when
144 |143 |00:13:48 ~-~-> 00:13:52 |I was doing driving, because I'm looking at a little handheld device that was
145 |144 |00:13:52 ~-~-> 00:13:57 |telling me real time prices for the commodity markets I was trading. So I
146 |145 |00:13:57 ~-~-> 00:14:04 |was entertaining ideas that would lend an alternative to simply being in there
147 |146 |00:14:05 ~-~-> 00:14:08 |and trying to catch short term trades, because I wanted to be like Larry
148 |147 |00:14:08 ~-~-> 00:14:13 |Williams, to be a short term trader. He was my hero. He was the the biggest
149 |148 |00:14:13 ~-~-> 00:14:18 |influence I had in in trading, initially, and he inspired me to want to
150 |149 |00:14:18 ~-~-> 00:14:23 |do what he was doing and until I got good at short term trading, I had a lot
151 |150 |00:14:23 ~-~-> 00:14:29 |of adversities, so I started system hopping and changing strategies. And one
152 |151 |00:14:29 ~-~-> 00:14:34 |of the things that I learned that there was a guy back in the day called Don
153 |152 |00:14:34 ~-~-> 00:14:41 |Fishback, and he had a odds, 90% odds, course, on options. And of course, I
154 |153 |00:14:41 ~-~-> 00:14:45 |went to traders library out in Columbia, Maryland. And, you know, every two,
155 |154 |00:14:45 ~-~-> 00:14:50 |three weeks, I'd save up money and get some kind of books, or, you know, VCR
156 |155 |00:14:50 ~-~-> 00:14:55 |tapes back then, and try to, you know, learn more about the markets and
157 |156 |00:14:55 ~-~-> 00:14:58 |whatnot, basically wasting my money because I was, I was chasing all kinds
158 |157 |00:14:58 ~-~-> 00:15:03 |of things that just don't. Work. But his course on options trading really
159 |158 |00:15:03 ~-~-> 00:15:08 |inspired me to try to think about how I could do that on a short term trading
160 |159 |00:15:08 ~-~-> 00:15:14 |basis with weekly opportunities, because I knew enough to know that on a daily
161 |160 |00:15:14 ~-~-> 00:15:20 |chart, the moves that would transpire over the the full week of Monday to
162 |161 |00:15:20 ~-~-> 00:15:26 |Friday's trading, many times offered opportunities where, if I was accurate
163 |162 |00:15:26 ~-~-> 00:15:30 |in the direction on the weekly chart where I was going to go, and if it was
164 |163 |00:15:30 ~-~-> 00:15:36 |going to spend five days or so moving away from the extreme of that weekly
165 |164 |00:15:36 ~-~-> 00:15:41 |range. In this case, it'll say that we knew that it was likely to go up to this
166 |165 |00:15:41 ~-~-> 00:15:46 |area, and we felt comfortable assuming the risk on the market going lower and
167 |166 |00:15:46 ~-~-> 00:15:50 |not going any higher. And again, please permit me to say it like that, because I
168 |167 |00:15:50 ~-~-> 00:15:54 |did, in fact, call this last week. So it's not like I'm hypothetically saying
169 |168 |00:15:54 ~-~-> 00:16:00 |anything here. I'm stating that if you believe that you're gonna have this
170 |169 |00:16:00 ~-~-> 00:16:06 |skill set in the future as well. You could write options now. The option
171 |170 |00:16:06 ~-~-> 00:16:12 |writer is the person that is taking the option itself to the market and saying,
172 |171 |00:16:12 ~-~-> 00:16:17 |Okay, here's, here's what I'm willing to take the other side of and when there's
173 |172 |00:16:17 ~-~-> 00:16:24 |a buyer of that strike price of that instrument on that very vehicle that
174 |173 |00:16:24 ~-~-> 00:16:28 |you're trading on there, and we're going to be looking at SBX options, is what
175 |174 |00:16:28 ~-~-> 00:16:31 |we're going to be looking at the
176 |175 |00:16:33 ~-~-> 00:16:34 |the joining of those two
177 |176 |00:16:35 ~-~-> 00:16:42 |parties, the buyer and the writer, the writer, he or she collects the premium
178 |177 |00:16:42 ~-~-> 00:16:48 |paid it immediately upon the transaction. So let's say, for instance,
179 |178 |00:16:48 ~-~-> 00:16:52 |that you felt that, and then say this, this daily chart was not NASDAQ, but
180 |179 |00:16:52 ~-~-> 00:16:58 |SPX, the cash market for s, p, if that were the case. And let's assume for a
181 |180 |00:16:58 ~-~-> 00:17:05 |moment that the options above this high here for SPX, say that the options were
182 |181 |00:17:05 ~-~-> 00:17:08 |valued at, I don't know. I'm just going to give you a ballpark number, and it
183 |182 |00:17:08 ~-~-> 00:17:14 |may or may not been accurate, but let's just say it's $500 okay, per option
184 |183 |00:17:15 ~-~-> 00:17:20 |based on a strike price higher than that high. Now, I know some of you guys are
185 |184 |00:17:20 ~-~-> 00:17:23 |already options traders, and you're probably listening to me talk about
186 |185 |00:17:23 ~-~-> 00:17:26 |this, and you're thinking, well, you need to tell them this. You need to tell
187 |186 |00:17:26 ~-~-> 00:17:30 |them that there's a lot of you in here that are new. Don't have any idea about
188 |187 |00:17:30 ~-~-> 00:17:35 |what options trading is. I'm just giving you the underlying premise to what I was
189 |188 |00:17:35 ~-~-> 00:17:42 |doing as a younger man. Okay, so you could collect the immediate premium paid
190 |189 |00:17:42 ~-~-> 00:17:46 |by the option buyer. So there's people out there that saw it running up like
191 |190 |00:17:46 ~-~-> 00:17:50 |that, got excited and maybe thought, wow, you know it's going to keep going
192 |191 |00:17:50 ~-~-> 00:17:56 |higher. So they buy call options. Now, if you're picking a strike price on an
193 |192 |00:17:56 ~-~-> 00:18:01 |option and a strike price, they say, say, this is where we were trading at on
194 |193 |00:18:01 ~-~-> 00:18:06 |Tuesday and Wednesday of the week, you could have the 600 level. That would be
195 |194 |00:18:07 ~-~-> 00:18:12 |an example of, like a strike price, okay? And it's usually in SPX. It's
196 |195 |00:18:12 ~-~-> 00:18:21 |every five handles. So the next one would be below. It would be 595 and in
197 |196 |00:18:21 ~-~-> 00:18:30 |590 and in 585 but facing it on SPX, not NASDAQ. I don't know some of your
198 |197 |00:18:30 ~-~-> 00:18:33 |ranking well, you should be showing this on the SPS chart. I don't want to be
199 |198 |00:18:33 ~-~-> 00:18:38 |doing too many things in this review. I'm worn out, I'm uncomfortable, and I'm
200 |199 |00:18:38 ~-~-> 00:18:45 |trying to get through it as best I can. But if you were to sell those options by
201 |200 |00:18:46 ~-~-> 00:18:49 |writing them, this is what you're doing. You're, you're, you're the underwriter
202 |201 |00:18:49 ~-~-> 00:18:55 |of the option, basically. So the premium paid by the buyer of that call option,
203 |202 |00:18:56 ~-~-> 00:19:01 |you get that immediately deposit into your account. Now if you're wrong, that
204 |203 |00:19:01 ~-~-> 00:19:11 |quickly evaporates. Okay, you could see very, very harsh debits to your account
205 |204 |00:19:11 ~-~-> 00:19:16 |balance if you're really wrong, and you're selling a lot of options, but
206 |205 |00:19:17 ~-~-> 00:19:20 |premise is, you're trying to do one, okay, you're going to start with
207 |206 |00:19:20 ~-~-> 00:19:23 |everything in any endeavor. You're going to start with just one. Start with just
208 |207 |00:19:23 ~-~-> 00:19:27 |one. So what you're looking for is an opportunity each week to sell one
209 |208 |00:19:27 ~-~-> 00:19:32 |option, whether a call option or a put option. A call option is the right to
210 |209 |00:19:32 ~-~-> 00:19:37 |own and purchase the underlying instrument, but you're not obligated to
211 |210 |00:19:37 ~-~-> 00:19:42 |buy it. So you can walk away in whatever you paid for the option, and plus
212 |211 |00:19:42 ~-~-> 00:19:45 |commissions, that's your total investment. You cannot lose any more
213 |212 |00:19:45 ~-~-> 00:19:50 |than that. And it's very intriguing. It's very enticing for people to want to
214 |213 |00:19:50 ~-~-> 00:19:56 |do that when you're purchasing long puts and long calls, and a put option is the
215 |214 |00:19:56 ~-~-> 00:20:00 |opposite of the call. It means that you're likely to profit. It if the
216 |215 |00:20:00 ~-~-> 00:20:04 |market does, in fact, drop lower than your strike price. Now, easy way to
217 |216 |00:20:04 ~-~-> 00:20:10 |remember is call up, put down. Okay, so if you're bullish on market, you can be
218 |217 |00:20:10 ~-~-> 00:20:17 |buying in a long call. But if you are able to look at the marketplace and time
219 |218 |00:20:17 ~-~-> 00:20:23 |when the market is no longer likely to be short term bullish like we had on
220 |219 |00:20:23 ~-~-> 00:20:28 |Tuesday and Wednesday call, options were getting real interesting to Street Money
221 |220 |00:20:28 ~-~-> 00:20:33 |retail traders, they want to see a continuation on the upside. You see the
222 |221 |00:20:33 ~-~-> 00:20:37 |people in CNBC. You read all the headlines in Barron's Wall Street
223 |222 |00:20:37 ~-~-> 00:20:42 |Journal, investors, Business Daily, and you read the article headlines by people
224 |223 |00:20:42 ~-~-> 00:20:46 |that are interesting, saying, we're at a trade, we're at a tradable low, and we
225 |224 |00:20:46 ~-~-> 00:20:52 |can come back into 50 to 75% of this price run lower. So when the public sees
226 |225 |00:20:52 ~-~-> 00:20:55 |that, because they subscribe to the magazines, they subscribe to the
227 |226 |00:20:56 ~-~-> 00:20:59 |newspapers and whatnot, they feel like they're informed. So yeah, they're going
228 |227 |00:20:59 ~-~-> 00:21:02 |to go in there and say, Well, it's been going up. So let me go and buy some call
229 |228 |00:21:02 ~-~-> 00:21:09 |options on the market. At the time when we as smart money investors, we're
230 |229 |00:21:09 ~-~-> 00:21:13 |looking at the market timing, it with things that are not retail oriented. So
231 |230 |00:21:13 ~-~-> 00:21:16 |when we're looking at the market, like to go up here, like we mentioned last
232 |231 |00:21:16 ~-~-> 00:21:22 |Saturday, just to go lower, we can wait for the market get to that extreme when
233 |232 |00:21:22 ~-~-> 00:21:27 |retail will be absolutely bullish and they will be interested in buying call
234 |233 |00:21:27 ~-~-> 00:21:33 |options, but as a younger man, I would be interested in selling or writing call
235 |234 |00:21:33 ~-~-> 00:21:38 |options to the marketplace so that way I could collect the immediate premium by
236 |235 |00:21:38 ~-~-> 00:21:44 |the buyers of the call option. Now they have limited risk. I don't have the same
237 |236 |00:21:47 ~-~-> 00:21:53 |benefits of that. I could lose more than I made on the premium. Like it could be
238 |237 |00:21:53 ~-~-> 00:21:59 |worse. It could be really bad. So what you're doing, essentially, is you're
239 |238 |00:21:59 ~-~-> 00:22:04 |collecting premium by writing the option, and then as the market moves in
240 |239 |00:22:04 ~-~-> 00:22:09 |your favor and against the underlying direction that would profit that call
241 |240 |00:22:09 ~-~-> 00:22:17 |option, their premium that they paid will diminish, which means that you get
242 |241 |00:22:17 ~-~-> 00:22:22 |to keep it, and then eventually, at some point when you're comfortable and you're
243 |242 |00:22:22 ~-~-> 00:22:29 |able to do so you you exercise your side of the option by
244 |243 |00:22:30 ~-~-> 00:22:31 |getting out of it.
245 |244 |00:22:32 ~-~-> 00:22:37 |So you're exiting the trade. You you have to buy one. Okay, so
246 |245 |00:22:38 ~-~-> 00:22:39 |knowing this isn't
247 |246 |00:22:42 ~-~-> 00:22:45 |going to be for everybody. I'm not going to spend a whole lot of time with it. So
248 |247 |00:22:45 ~-~-> 00:22:50 |every Friday, for the next two weeks, I'll talk about this as a strategy and
249 |248 |00:22:50 ~-~-> 00:22:54 |how to how to build an idea of how you might want to implement it. I'm not
250 |249 |00:22:54 ~-~-> 00:22:59 |going to do a soup to nuts. Do this. Do this, do this. You know, step by step by
251 |250 |00:22:59 ~-~-> 00:23:05 |step, there's a lot better resources out there than I would ever be in terms of
252 |251 |00:23:05 ~-~-> 00:23:12 |options trading all of the Greeks, if you want to get nuts about it, I tried
253 |252 |00:23:12 ~-~-> 00:23:16 |not to do all that. And in the beginning, as a younger man, I got
254 |253 |00:23:16 ~-~-> 00:23:20 |really bogged down with wanting to know everything about every Greek, and Greeks
255 |254 |00:23:20 ~-~-> 00:23:28 |like the Gamma, Theta, all those things that are the Delta, all these things are
256 |255 |00:23:28 ~-~-> 00:23:37 |components to make up the pricing and the evaluation of an option. So for
257 |256 |00:23:37 ~-~-> 00:23:41 |those that are very astute and academic, you can obviously spend a whole lot more
258 |257 |00:23:41 ~-~-> 00:23:47 |time than I'm willing to invest in in talking about it. But what I'm primarily
259 |258 |00:23:48 ~-~-> 00:23:54 |introducing is an idea, a strategy that may or may not fit you, and because it
260 |259 |00:23:54 ~-~-> 00:23:59 |may not fit most of you, I'm not going to try to drive it down your throat,
261 |260 |00:23:59 ~-~-> 00:24:05 |like I would be like, a inversion, fair value gap, or an order block, or, you
262 |261 |00:24:05 ~-~-> 00:24:09 |know, model 2022, like or that there's an algorithm. Okay, I'm just loosely
263 |262 |00:24:09 ~-~-> 00:24:12 |presenting something, so that way, if you want to pursue it, there's really
264 |263 |00:24:12 ~-~-> 00:24:16 |wonderful resources out there. And then two Fridays from now, I'll give you my
265 |264 |00:24:16 ~-~-> 00:24:21 |opinion of the option resources. And I think that are valuable. If you're going
266 |265 |00:24:21 ~-~-> 00:24:24 |to purchase anything, I don't get anything from it. They're just like
267 |266 |00:24:24 ~-~-> 00:24:29 |books or resources that we can go and look at it, but that I felt were were
268 |267 |00:24:29 ~-~-> 00:24:33 |good. And invariably, what will happen is, is people that are more astute with
269 |268 |00:24:33 ~-~-> 00:24:38 |trading options in our community, they'll speak up and they'll say, Well,
270 |269 |00:24:38 ~-~-> 00:24:42 |this is this is who I use. Oh, this is how I do it, and you might get some kind
271 |270 |00:24:42 ~-~-> 00:24:46 |of a conversation going on with the other members in our community on x, and
272 |271 |00:24:46 ~-~-> 00:24:50 |then that might lead to something in the future for you, or it's just a departure
273 |272 |00:24:50 ~-~-> 00:24:53 |from what you're used to seeing here, and this is something to break up the
274 |273 |00:24:53 ~-~-> 00:25:01 |monotony of the standard ICT conversation pieces. So anyway. I want
275 |274 |00:25:01 ~-~-> 00:25:08 |to talk about how we traded up on Monday into that volume and balance. And then
276 |275 |00:25:08 ~-~-> 00:25:13 |Tuesday, we traded higher into the consequent growth in that wick. And then
277 |276 |00:25:14 ~-~-> 00:25:19 |we broke lower on Wednesday, drawing right back down into this volume and
278 |277 |00:25:19 ~-~-> 00:25:24 |balance. Now, because the market is predisposed to go lower. We we framed it
279 |278 |00:25:24 ~-~-> 00:25:29 |with it likely being bearish, even if it trades back up into this area. We want
280 |279 |00:25:29 ~-~-> 00:25:33 |to see it, reject it. I think this would meet and and agree with anyone's
281 |280 |00:25:33 ~-~-> 00:25:39 |definition of rejecting. I went higher and quickly see the see the time amount
282 |281 |00:25:40 ~-~-> 00:25:46 |of candles it took for it to get there, and then how fast it moved away. That
283 |282 |00:25:47 ~-~-> 00:25:54 |indicates stream weakness. Now, because it's up here and it's likely to draw
284 |283 |00:25:54 ~-~-> 00:26:01 |down to that low, how can we trade that and not need it to go to that low and
285 |284 |00:26:01 ~-~-> 00:26:05 |lower yet, because, as you saw on Friday, I have a short position that was
286 |285 |00:26:05 ~-~-> 00:26:13 |only two ticks away from being filled or potentially filled getting out. It would
287 |286 |00:26:13 ~-~-> 00:26:18 |have been the low of the day, but I was two ticks away from the daily low on
288 |287 |00:26:18 ~-~-> 00:26:26 |Friday. And right now, I'm over the weekend, holding short for contracts. So
289 |288 |00:26:27 ~-~-> 00:26:35 |my expectation is that, because we went so hard on Friday, lower, we will likely
290 |289 |00:26:35 ~-~-> 00:26:41 |gap lower than this low here. That's what I'm anticipating. Now, if we don't
291 |290 |00:26:41 ~-~-> 00:26:45 |got lower, and then we open a little bit higher, I'll look for it to trade down,
292 |291 |00:26:45 ~-~-> 00:26:50 |and then make another attempt to get below that low. Worst case scenario, you
293 |292 |00:26:50 ~-~-> 00:26:53 |know, it reverses on me, and then after a day or two, then it goes lower.
294 |293 |00:26:54 ~-~-> 00:26:59 |That's, in my opinion, less likely, but it's always potentially there, because I
295 |294 |00:26:59 ~-~-> 00:27:03 |don't do a lot of holding over the weekend. But in this instance, because
296 |295 |00:27:03 ~-~-> 00:27:07 |it's it was so likely to get down there on Friday, and I'll talk a little bit
297 |296 |00:27:07 ~-~-> 00:27:13 |about after four o'clock pm in a moment, but because it's shown its willingness
298 |297 |00:27:13 ~-~-> 00:27:18 |to be so heavy, and really no interest in going higher, and it quickly repelled
299 |298 |00:27:18 ~-~-> 00:27:23 |that level up here, this volume imbalance, I would have never expected
300 |299 |00:27:23 ~-~-> 00:27:27 |it to create some short term low to trade back up. Why we're weak, we're
301 |300 |00:27:27 ~-~-> 00:27:30 |likely to take out that low here. We have relative equal lows. That's going
302 |301 |00:27:30 ~-~-> 00:27:36 |to be a real quick draw. And then look at this single candle here, and then we
303 |302 |00:27:36 ~-~-> 00:27:40 |had this big down candle here. This is a balanced price range, so it's not
304 |303 |00:27:40 ~-~-> 00:27:44 |likely, after creating this candle here, it's not likely to trade back up in this
305 |304 |00:27:44 ~-~-> 00:27:49 |area and treat that as a fair value gap. It's likely to just continue going lower
306 |305 |00:27:49 ~-~-> 00:27:53 |and going lower. It did, and then fell just short of getting right below that
307 |306 |00:27:53 ~-~-> 00:27:57 |low. Now these levels down here probably looking at them, wondering what they
308 |307 |00:27:57 ~-~-> 00:28:01 |are. What I've done was I put a Fibonacci on the highest bodies and
309 |308 |00:28:01 ~-~-> 00:28:07 |lowest body. And had projections ran, okay, and you know what those
310 |309 |00:28:07 ~-~-> 00:28:13 |projections are. But the if we get below here, this is the minimum expectation I
311 |310 |00:28:13 ~-~-> 00:28:19 |expect to see, and this is kind of like the perfect scenario for for Swing
312 |311 |00:28:19 ~-~-> 00:28:23 |Trading. That would be a perfect level for me to be content with if it was to
313 |312 |00:28:23 ~-~-> 00:28:29 |trade down there. Now, I'm not going to hold my position that long, because of
314 |313 |00:28:29 ~-~-> 00:28:34 |the markets volatility, because of all the saber rattling, the issues with
315 |314 |00:28:34 ~-~-> 00:28:39 |Canada, the tariffs, like all kinds of things are going on, I don't want to
316 |315 |00:28:39 ~-~-> 00:28:43 |hold and to be honest with you, you know, I don't feel all that comfortable
317 |316 |00:28:44 ~-~-> 00:28:50 |holding over the weekend, you know, but I felt inclined to do so because I felt
318 |317 |00:28:53 ~-~-> 00:28:59 |it's not a lot of risk for contracts. Isn't a terrible amount of leverage, and
319 |318 |00:28:59 ~-~-> 00:29:04 |it's, in my opinion, likely that this gap lower than that low Okay, and
320 |319 |00:29:04 ~-~-> 00:29:08 |whatever the first print will be on Sunday. If it's lower than that, then I
321 |320 |00:29:08 ~-~-> 00:29:11 |would expect to see that super my fill would be, and then it would be better
322 |321 |00:29:11 ~-~-> 00:29:16 |than what I had my limit order set at on Friday. So let's break this down a
323 |322 |00:29:16 ~-~-> 00:29:19 |little bit further. Here's an hourly chart. You can see we traded up into
324 |323 |00:29:19 ~-~-> 00:29:24 |that premium wick, consequent curse me on the daily chart, and we had a lot of
325 |324 |00:29:24 ~-~-> 00:29:27 |displacement lower we opened on this candle came right back up to that
326 |325 |00:29:27 ~-~-> 00:29:32 |original draw on liquidity, which was that volume imbalance. Okay, so I only
327 |326 |00:29:32 ~-~-> 00:29:36 |gave you two PD raise on that daily chart, so you can track and maintain
328 |327 |00:29:36 ~-~-> 00:29:44 |your awareness or keep your bearings in where we're at in price relative to the
329 |328 |00:29:44 ~-~-> 00:29:50 |daily chart. All the way over here we see those relative equal lows that I
330 |329 |00:29:50 ~-~-> 00:29:54 |mentioned on the daily chart, their cell side below that. And then we had another
331 |330 |00:29:54 ~-~-> 00:29:56 |one here on the hourly chart, you can see real clear so.
332 |331 |00:30:00 ~-~-> 00:30:04 |Now I've made them slightly
333 |332 |00:30:06 ~-~-> 00:30:10 |faded so that way you can see that we did trade to it. But this is the one
334 |333 |00:30:10 ~-~-> 00:30:18 |that's active now, okay, so this was the volume imbalance on the daily chart that
335 |334 |00:30:18 ~-~-> 00:30:23 |once we moved away from it would draw down into that. Notice how we did that
336 |335 |00:30:23 ~-~-> 00:30:28 |very thing here to consequent encroachment, which I'm not going to
337 |336 |00:30:28 ~-~-> 00:30:32 |measure. And you can do that on your own chart, and we trade right back up into
338 |337 |00:30:32 ~-~-> 00:30:37 |this inefficiency right here. See that now it trades outside of a little bit
339 |338 |00:30:37 ~-~-> 00:30:42 |there, into an area that's a balanced price range. So this candle is open to
340 |339 |00:30:42 ~-~-> 00:30:49 |its high and this candle before it all that price action back and forth. It
341 |340 |00:30:50 ~-~-> 00:30:55 |stops and goes the other direction. We have the market trade back down. And
342 |341 |00:30:55 ~-~-> 00:31:00 |then once we get down below the midpoint of this area here, it has difficulty
343 |342 |00:31:00 ~-~-> 00:31:04 |doing a lot going any higher, it breaks lower. Then we have this sell side,
344 |343 |00:31:04 ~-~-> 00:31:08 |imbalance by side, and efficiency trades up into it there. And then it's off to
345 |344 |00:31:08 ~-~-> 00:31:12 |the race as we go, go, go, go, and then sell side, take him. Once we took out
346 |345 |00:31:12 ~-~-> 00:31:17 |these lows, it had a lot of heaviness, meaning that it was more likely to
347 |346 |00:31:17 ~-~-> 00:31:22 |continue lower than any consideration of the retracement. There's no need for it
348 |347 |00:31:22 ~-~-> 00:31:26 |to go there. It's in a hurry to get somewhere. Where is that? These old
349 |348 |00:31:26 ~-~-> 00:31:32 |daily lows here? So if we look at how we traded and got right to the close, it
350 |349 |00:31:32 ~-~-> 00:31:37 |was so close I felt that we were going to at least give me my fill, but it
351 |350 |00:31:37 ~-~-> 00:31:44 |denied me. And that sometimes was going to happen, I'll drop down into a hourly
352 |351 |00:31:44 ~-~-> 00:31:47 |chart, same time frame, but we're breaking the days out with vertical
353 |352 |00:31:47 ~-~-> 00:31:53 |lines, showing you Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays trading.
354 |353 |00:31:54 ~-~-> 00:31:59 |Notice how we had essentially a market maker. Sell model, okay? Original
355 |354 |00:31:59 ~-~-> 00:32:04 |consolidation, Smart Money reversal, low risk style, distribution,
356 |355 |00:32:05 ~-~-> 00:32:09 |redistribution, and then the second leg is the most aggressive to the downside.
357 |356 |00:32:12 ~-~-> 00:32:18 |Let's see that time frame. Here's that blue volume and balance, and now,
358 |357 |00:32:18 ~-~-> 00:32:21 |because we went below it, and we're bearish, and we're aiming for this low
359 |358 |00:32:21 ~-~-> 00:32:26 |down here, and that original relative equal lows on the daily chart. We're
360 |359 |00:32:27 ~-~-> 00:32:31 |going to divide that range up here in quadrants, and now it's going to act as
361 |360 |00:32:31 ~-~-> 00:32:38 |an inversion fair value gap. Okay, so once we leave the upper half and come
362 |361 |00:32:38 ~-~-> 00:32:43 |outside on a closing basis. Notice we don't have a closing basis there. It
363 |362 |00:32:43 ~-~-> 00:32:47 |trades outside of it. That's just like a I call that a mohawk. It's just like
364 |363 |00:32:47 ~-~-> 00:32:50 |coloring outside the line like you have if you have a child and they color a
365 |364 |00:32:50 ~-~-> 00:32:53 |picture for you and they show here you go, mommy, here you go, daddy. You're
366 |365 |00:32:53 ~-~-> 00:32:57 |not going to look at your child and say, Look at you. You fool. You didn't even
367 |366 |00:32:57 ~-~-> 00:33:00 |stay inside the line. You're not going to do that. It's a treasure to you.
368 |367 |00:33:00 ~-~-> 00:33:05 |Well, this coloring outside the lines is permissible. We anticipate those types
369 |368 |00:33:05 ~-~-> 00:33:10 |of things happening. But when it does close outside of it, we're then going to
370 |369 |00:33:10 ~-~-> 00:33:16 |watch, does it return back inside of it? And does the lower half maintain price?
371 |370 |00:33:16 ~-~-> 00:33:21 |And does it stay outside the upper half? As you can see, that in fact, is what we
372 |371 |00:33:21 ~-~-> 00:33:25 |have. And then leave it here we have a displacement this first fair value gap.
373 |372 |00:33:25 ~-~-> 00:33:30 |This is exactly how I teach my inversion fair value gap, okay, this is the
374 |373 |00:33:30 ~-~-> 00:33:37 |easiest application to an inversion fair value gap from ICT, that first fair
375 |374 |00:33:37 ~-~-> 00:33:42 |value gap that forms after breaking away, validating the inversion fair
376 |375 |00:33:42 ~-~-> 00:33:44 |value. Once that forms,
377 |376 |00:33:46 ~-~-> 00:33:50 |creating up into it there Perfect. That's exactly
378 |377 |00:33:50 ~-~-> 00:33:54 |what you're looking for. And you place a stop just above consequent encroachment,
379 |378 |00:33:54 ~-~-> 00:34:00 |that will be your underlying risk. Now, that might be incredible in terms of
380 |379 |00:34:01 ~-~-> 00:34:07 |risk for you? Well, that's unfortunate because there are micros, and a lot of
381 |380 |00:34:07 ~-~-> 00:34:10 |you don't want to touch a micro because you think that that's somehow like a
382 |381 |00:34:12 ~-~-> 00:34:17 |size matters type thing, like you have to only
383 |382 |00:34:17 ~-~-> 00:34:21 |do a mini contract, or you're not a real man. You're not a real professional
384 |383 |00:34:21 ~-~-> 00:34:26 |trader unless you're using minis. If you use a micro, you're somehow substandard.
385 |384 |00:34:27 ~-~-> 00:34:33 |No, you use the micro to facilitate the trade and you manage risk impeccably.
386 |385 |00:34:33 ~-~-> 00:34:40 |That's that's what the micro is there for. It's not a distinguishing vehicle
387 |386 |00:34:40 ~-~-> 00:34:45 |between the pros and the neophytes. Are novice traders. You know, I have
388 |387 |00:34:45 ~-~-> 00:34:49 |students that are doing very, very well, and they're doing it just with micros,
389 |388 |00:34:49 ~-~-> 00:34:54 |and they don't ever touch a mini, ever, and they don't have a job, that's all
390 |389 |00:34:54 ~-~-> 00:34:59 |they do. So for the people that are very opinionated, chances are they're working
391 |390 |00:34:59 ~-~-> 00:35:05 |at Jiffy Lee while they're. Talking like that. So the fair value gap that forms
392 |391 |00:35:05 ~-~-> 00:35:09 |after the validation of the inversion fair value gap, that's when you want to
393 |392 |00:35:09 ~-~-> 00:35:13 |start your position. And in any opportunity you can add to it, you can
394 |393 |00:35:13 ~-~-> 00:35:19 |do that. So the market does, in fact, break lower. It trades down to the first
395 |394 |00:35:19 ~-~-> 00:35:22 |relative equal lows on the daily chart. Their sell side there, and it
396 |395 |00:35:22 ~-~-> 00:35:27 |consolidates a little bit, then comes and breaks lower again. Immediate
397 |396 |00:35:27 ~-~-> 00:35:32 |rebalance, breaks lower injury and drifts right into almost filming me on
398 |397 |00:35:32 ~-~-> 00:35:38 |Friday, almost taking out that old low on the daily chart. Here's a one minute
399 |398 |00:35:38 ~-~-> 00:35:43 |chart here. And I kind of like want to talk about I got a lot of questions
400 |399 |00:35:43 ~-~-> 00:35:47 |asking me, how did I trust that the market was going to make this type of
401 |400 |00:35:47 ~-~-> 00:35:49 |move here after the
402 |401 |00:35:50 ~-~-> 00:35:51 |four o'clock
403 |402 |00:35:52 ~-~-> 00:35:59 |record trading hours close at 414 usually, if you're a prop firm trader
404 |403 |00:35:59 ~-~-> 00:36:06 |and you're using these monetized demo accounts, these ideas of trading past
405 |404 |00:36:06 ~-~-> 00:36:10 |four o'clock. I believe, I'm not sure if it's still true, but I believe at least
406 |405 |00:36:10 ~-~-> 00:36:15 |one of the companies were the rules. What you had to be out by four o'clock
407 |406 |00:36:15 ~-~-> 00:36:19 |Eastern time, and if I'm incorrect, at least in the comment section, correct
408 |407 |00:36:19 ~-~-> 00:36:24 |me, because I would like to know if I'm wrong, but I think the rules are you
409 |408 |00:36:24 ~-~-> 00:36:30 |have to be out by four o'clock. And that's true. You never get these types
410 |409 |00:36:30 ~-~-> 00:36:36 |of movements here, which in this case, because we're so close to that old daily
411 |410 |00:36:36 ~-~-> 00:36:41 |low when everything's bearish, the market's going to wait until four
412 |411 |00:36:41 ~-~-> 00:36:45 |o'clock close, and that bell starts ringing. But then you have 15 minutes of
413 |412 |00:36:45 ~-~-> 00:36:53 |settlement still, and then during those 15 minutes, and you get to 414 great
414 |413 |00:36:53 ~-~-> 00:36:57 |when the new one minute candle would open up. That's the closing bell. You're
415 |414 |00:36:57 ~-~-> 00:37:01 |you're done, ready trading hours closes, but electronic trading hours are still
416 |415 |00:37:01 ~-~-> 00:37:07 |going until five o'clock. So you have 45 minutes still trading, and you have that
417 |416 |00:37:07 ~-~-> 00:37:12 |hour break until 6pm eastern time, when the markets really disposed predisposed
418 |417 |00:37:12 ~-~-> 00:37:17 |rather to to move lower. Many times, it'll have this little bit of a Judas
419 |418 |00:37:17 ~-~-> 00:37:21 |swing going into the four o'clock hour. And then after four o'clock, it really
420 |419 |00:37:21 ~-~-> 00:37:28 |starts to accelerate into a target higher or lower. So it kind of it acts
421 |420 |00:37:28 ~-~-> 00:37:36 |like a market on close algorithm, where it knows that the majority of
422 |421 |00:37:36 ~-~-> 00:37:40 |individuals are not participating right now. They're at their day trading. They
423 |422 |00:37:40 ~-~-> 00:37:46 |got out. They're too afraid to hold over, because usually it gets real quiet
424 |423 |00:37:46 ~-~-> 00:37:50 |and listless. It doesn't give you a whole lot of price movement. But when
425 |424 |00:37:50 ~-~-> 00:37:54 |it's so close to a whole deal alone like that, and we're in a very bearish market
426 |425 |00:37:54 ~-~-> 00:37:59 |Friday, this is when I am anticipating that type of run. So I'm going to hold
427 |426 |00:37:59 ~-~-> 00:38:05 |on to it as long as I can, even if it's the last minute, because I've done this
428 |427 |00:38:05 ~-~-> 00:38:09 |before where I got basically the low of the day, and I was aiming for that very
429 |428 |00:38:09 ~-~-> 00:38:14 |thing on Friday, and it just simply didn't give it to me, and it's okay, but
430 |429 |00:38:16 ~-~-> 00:38:20 |these levels here, you can see them on the FIB, if you put them On that, you're
431 |430 |00:38:20 ~-~-> 00:38:27 |looking at it over the view of the highest wick down to that lowest wick,
432 |431 |00:38:27 ~-~-> 00:38:34 |and that projection lower, that's negative 0.5 then you have negative one
433 |432 |00:38:34 ~-~-> 00:38:40 |and then negative 1.5 this is where I believe that we're going to Open at or
434 |433 |00:38:40 ~-~-> 00:38:45 |below. That's what I think we're going to aim for on Sundays opening. It's a
435 |434 |00:38:45 ~-~-> 00:38:49 |guess. It's it's not scientific. It's just a hunch. It's just experience
436 |435 |00:38:49 ~-~-> 00:38:53 |speaking, and I'm probably wrong, so don't hold me to it, not that you can do
437 |436 |00:38:53 ~-~-> 00:38:56 |anything with it anyway. You can't position yourself ahead of Sunday's
438 |437 |00:38:56 ~-~-> 00:38:59 |opening, but that's what I believe is going to happen. But I kind of like
439 |438 |00:38:59 ~-~-> 00:39:06 |wanted to talk a little bit about that here, because I know that most of you
440 |439 |00:39:06 ~-~-> 00:39:10 |are probably prop firm traders, and you probably won't be able to participate in
441 |440 |00:39:10 ~-~-> 00:39:14 |some of these things. And when there's earning weeks, you'll never catch these
442 |441 |00:39:14 ~-~-> 00:39:17 |types of continuations either. And usually that's how it happens as well.
443 |442 |00:39:18 ~-~-> 00:39:21 |But I think that's going to be it for this one. I'm kind of worn out, and I'll
444 |443 |00:39:21 ~-~-> 00:39:24 |catch up with you, Lord willing on Monday. Until then, enjoy your weekend
445 |444 |00:39:24 ~-~-> 00:39:25 |and be safe. You.