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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-04-03 12:13
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2 |1 |00:00:00 ~-~-> 00:00:10 |ICT: Good morning, folks. I apologize for my tardiness. I was supposed to do
3 |2 |00:00:10 ~-~-> 00:00:15 |this review last link, but my son's had an issue at their home. Had to take care
4 |3 |00:00:15 ~-~-> 00:00:23 |of that, and here we are. So be NASDAQ. All right, so I talked about yesterday
5 |4 |00:00:23 ~-~-> 00:00:28 |in the telegram channel. I started the morning session off with a very modest
6 |5 |00:00:28 ~-~-> 00:00:33 |bullish bias, and I'll explain what that meant. And for the folks that are brand
7 |6 |00:00:33 ~-~-> 00:00:38 |new or just simply just don't understand what it is I'm referring to, I started
8 |7 |00:00:38 ~-~-> 00:00:44 |the morning session off very, very early with an annotation posting an interest
9 |8 |00:00:44 ~-~-> 00:00:53 |in the 20,004 30 level, which is this low here. This was yesterday's low. It
10 |9 |00:00:53 ~-~-> 00:00:58 |was trading in that direction. Okay, what I wanted to see it do was go up
11 |10 |00:00:58 ~-~-> 00:01:05 |into the 21,004 53.75, level. And I told everybody these levels here. I went
12 |11 |00:01:05 ~-~-> 00:01:10 |through the charts from daily down to one hour, 15 minute, five minute, one
13 |12 |00:01:10 ~-~-> 00:01:14 |minute chart. And what I wanted to see was I wanted to see it go up initially
14 |13 |00:01:14 ~-~-> 00:01:18 |and then gravitate down towards this low. That was a whole premise. The first
15 |14 |00:01:18 ~-~-> 00:01:23 |post I gave yesterday in telegram channel was this level here, which was
16 |15 |00:01:23 ~-~-> 00:01:30 |this low. So obviously you can see the market did, in fact, try to work towards
17 |16 |00:01:30 ~-~-> 00:01:35 |that level, but it failed to get to its old low. I don't think we're done okay.
18 |17 |00:01:35 ~-~-> 00:01:40 |I think that it's still viable. It's still likely, but it needs to do, you
19 |18 |00:01:40 ~-~-> 00:01:44 |know, short term retrace and consolidations before dimension gets
20 |19 |00:01:44 ~-~-> 00:01:50 |down there and then this low here. Okay, so you're probably thinking, Well, why
21 |20 |00:01:50 ~-~-> 00:01:54 |am I jumping over these two here? Well, because if it's going to go below here
22 |21 |00:01:54 ~-~-> 00:01:58 |and accelerate, why just take these lows out when this one here is your base
23 |22 |00:02:00 ~-~-> 00:02:05 |before all of this rally up. Okay, so we cleared all these relative equal highs
24 |23 |00:02:05 ~-~-> 00:02:13 |out once we were this volume and balance rallied higher. And then you're probably
25 |24 |00:02:13 ~-~-> 00:02:17 |thinking, you just said a volume amounts because it was labeled as kind of like a
26 |25 |00:02:17 ~-~-> 00:02:22 |pseudo volume imbalance. It's a gap, but I use some of the rules for volume
27 |26 |00:02:22 ~-~-> 00:02:27 |imbalances in there. You can see how it was a very challenging area here and
28 |27 |00:02:27 ~-~-> 00:02:31 |right above, like we were looking for, and then it gave up the ghost and broke
29 |28 |00:02:31 ~-~-> 00:02:38 |lower. But I posted these levels in here yesterday, and I'll show you on the 60
30 |29 |00:02:38 ~-~-> 00:02:45 |minute chart. I'm okay, and that's what it looks like here, and that's where the
31 |30 |00:02:45 ~-~-> 00:02:51 |buy side was initially. And then this inefficiency from here, that low, this
32 |31 |00:02:51 ~-~-> 00:02:56 |candlesticks high, I refined it further as we went lower. So we go into a 15
33 |32 |00:02:56 ~-~-> 00:03:02 |minute time frame. And then there's the candlesticks low, and then this candle
34 |33 |00:03:02 ~-~-> 00:03:07 |sticks high. That was inefficiency, and see how smooth. That is really, really
35 |34 |00:03:07 ~-~-> 00:03:13 |smooth. And I wanted to see it at the open in here. I wanted to see it go up
36 |35 |00:03:13 ~-~-> 00:03:19 |and unsettle that, make that jagged, and then trade down into the first level I
37 |36 |00:03:19 ~-~-> 00:03:27 |gave yesterday morning, really early, which doesn't appear to show up on this
38 |37 |00:03:27 ~-~-> 00:03:36 |time frame, but basically this level eight there. Okay, you can see we got
39 |38 |00:03:36 ~-~-> 00:03:41 |real close to it. This is simply didn't go up there and take the buy side. Okay,
40 |39 |00:03:41 ~-~-> 00:03:48 |so that's not an incorrect bias, okay. It's an idea to anticipate the daily
41 |40 |00:03:48 ~-~-> 00:03:52 |range forming. So in other words, where it opens, we want to see it trade out,
42 |41 |00:03:52 ~-~-> 00:03:56 |create a Judas and then trade down to the level I gave guidance on at 20,009
43 |42 |00:03:57 ~-~-> 00:04:00 |43 I'll drop down to a five minute chart.
44 |43 |00:04:07 ~-~-> 00:04:08 |Okay, and
45 |44 |00:04:15 ~-~-> 00:04:20 |930 opening price again, I wanted to see it get above this box, which we'll see
46 |45 |00:04:20 ~-~-> 00:04:24 |on the one minute chart. I wanted to see it act as an inversion fair value gap. I
47 |46 |00:04:24 ~-~-> 00:04:29 |want to see it trade above it come back down in respect only the upper half then
48 |47 |00:04:29 ~-~-> 00:04:32 |displace and the next fear value gap after that. I would have used to get
49 |48 |00:04:32 ~-~-> 00:04:39 |long to run into that buy side, then take the long off, then look for a short
50 |49 |00:04:39 ~-~-> 00:04:44 |if it would have broke below first presented fair value gap after taking
51 |50 |00:04:44 ~-~-> 00:04:49 |the buy side. That would have been a very, very easy model setup that I'm
52 |51 |00:04:49 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |trying to employ for 2025 but it just simply wasn't able to do that. Just did
53 |52 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:04:58 |not have any kind of interest at all. Don't want to go higher. It just melted.
54 |53 |00:04:59 ~-~-> 00:05:02 |Okay? Just kept going. Lower, dropping down to a limited chart.
55 |54 |00:05:12 ~-~-> 00:05:14 |Here's your new day opening up
56 |55 |00:05:20 ~-~-> 00:05:28 |right and there's your 20,009 43 level. What I had in mind at the beginning of
57 |56 |00:05:28 ~-~-> 00:05:35 |the telegram broadcast yesterday for February 25 2025 All right, so let's get
58 |57 |00:05:35 ~-~-> 00:05:38 |in here and break this down real quick, because I don't want this to be a very
59 |58 |00:05:38 ~-~-> 00:05:44 |long video. So up here is the buy side and where all those smooth highs are. So
60 |59 |00:05:44 ~-~-> 00:05:50 |if we keep going back to the left, it's all of these highs all what I showed on
61 |60 |00:05:50 ~-~-> 00:05:57 |the 15 minute time frame in the one hour chart. So we have the opening price
62 |61 |00:05:57 ~-~-> 00:06:02 |here, right there on that candlestick, and we break down, we create the very
63 |62 |00:06:02 ~-~-> 00:06:06 |first fair value gap, which is this little blue one. And I wanted to see it
64 |63 |00:06:06 ~-~-> 00:06:14 |trade above this inefficiency. I'm using the volume imbalance in here for the low
65 |64 |00:06:14 ~-~-> 00:06:20 |it, and I want to see it trade above it and close outside of it. Now it has to
66 |65 |00:06:20 ~-~-> 00:06:25 |do this after 930 so here's 930 so I want to see a trade above this. That's
67 |66 |00:06:25 ~-~-> 00:06:31 |what I had in mind. I had a modest bullish bias, which was limited to the
68 |67 |00:06:31 ~-~-> 00:06:36 |very thing. I noted these smooth highs, and I said they were suspect they're too
69 |68 |00:06:36 ~-~-> 00:06:40 |smooth. Okay, so if you're a student of mine, you know what that means, that
70 |69 |00:06:40 ~-~-> 00:06:44 |we're likely go up there and make that smooth edge jagged. So that means it's
71 |70 |00:06:44 ~-~-> 00:06:49 |going to do what, go up there, disrupt it. And then what was the other level? I
72 |71 |00:06:49 ~-~-> 00:06:55 |started the day with 20,009 43 Okay, so that's why I emphasize I have a modest
73 |72 |00:06:55 ~-~-> 00:06:59 |bullish bias. And then initially going into the opening, because I wanted to
74 |73 |00:06:59 ~-~-> 00:07:03 |see it go up in these things, just to simply do, look at the posts, folks, I
75 |74 |00:07:03 ~-~-> 00:07:06 |get it, there's going to be people that simply want to take things out of
76 |75 |00:07:06 ~-~-> 00:07:10 |context because they want to sound smart, but they're looking foolish. So
77 |76 |00:07:10 ~-~-> 00:07:13 |the point is, is I wanted to see it trade after 930 I want to see it trade
78 |77 |00:07:13 ~-~-> 00:07:19 |above this inefficiency and act as a foolish and very bad bullish in Persian
79 |78 |00:07:19 ~-~-> 00:07:24 |fair value gap. Tongue twister rallies up, and if it comes back down and
80 |79 |00:07:24 ~-~-> 00:07:29 |supports price and doesn't go back in the lower half of it, then I want to see
81 |80 |00:07:29 ~-~-> 00:07:34 |it make a run on here. But I have to see this inversion fair value gap produce
82 |81 |00:07:34 ~-~-> 00:07:38 |the support structure. Then a small, little one minute inversion fair value
83 |82 |00:07:38 ~-~-> 00:07:42 |gap, then I could have went long there, and that would have been a run into
84 |83 |00:07:42 ~-~-> 00:07:46 |that. So I would have used whatever that little short term Scott would have been
85 |84 |00:07:46 ~-~-> 00:07:50 |to take that exit reverse and then go lower. And then, if it would have went
86 |85 |00:07:50 ~-~-> 00:07:53 |below the first presented fair value gap, I would have added or pyramided
87 |86 |00:07:53 ~-~-> 00:07:58 |another entry there. But as you can see, it just simply did not give that run up
88 |87 |00:07:58 ~-~-> 00:08:05 |there. It just stayed extremely heavy, and is it folded over? Now, this
89 |88 |00:08:05 ~-~-> 00:08:13 |inefficiency, I'm gonna think it's a 15 minute time frame. I didn't label it.
90 |89 |00:08:13 ~-~-> 00:08:17 |This is why you want to label your stuff when you're doing your annotations.
91 |90 |00:08:17 ~-~-> 00:08:21 |Yeah, it's the 15 minute time frame. So this, this inefficiency I had that noted
92 |91 |00:08:21 ~-~-> 00:08:26 |as well. It broke through, it came back up and acted as resistance. But the long
93 |92 |00:08:26 ~-~-> 00:08:34 |and short of it is, we had no interest at all to go up and clear that smooth
94 |93 |00:08:34 ~-~-> 00:08:40 |area of buy side. So I had to eventually just get in line with what the market
95 |94 |00:08:40 ~-~-> 00:08:48 |was doing. And look for shorts. Market trades up into the lower half of that
96 |95 |00:08:48 ~-~-> 00:08:54 |fair value gap. It breaks lower. We have a fair value gap there. And I said,
97 |96 |00:08:55 ~-~-> 00:08:59 |we'll see if it wants to behave as an inversion fair value gap. If it fails to
98 |97 |00:08:59 ~-~-> 00:09:04 |do so, it breaks down below it, then it means the consequent encroachment should
99 |98 |00:09:04 ~-~-> 00:09:12 |be a what a barrier to it. So it's a failure to launch off of this inversion
100 |99 |00:09:12 ~-~-> 00:09:17 |fair value gap. There's your entry. You can go short there. We have a fair value
101 |100 |00:09:17 ~-~-> 00:09:20 |gap here. That's a Sibi trades up to consequent encroachment there, trades up
102 |101 |00:09:20 ~-~-> 00:09:24 |into lower quadrants, off volume imbalance noted. All these things were
103 |102 |00:09:24 ~-~-> 00:09:29 |noted as it was happening, posting it on the chart. I've tried to do yesterday,
104 |103 |00:09:30 ~-~-> 00:09:36 |very little text descriptions, and I let the chart do the talking, because
105 |104 |00:09:36 ~-~-> 00:09:42 |there's a language barrier. Still, for a lot of you that don't know how to, I
106 |105 |00:09:42 ~-~-> 00:09:50 |guess, follow me in English, I'm trying to make it where it's visual. So if I'm
107 |106 |00:09:50 ~-~-> 00:09:55 |showing you a chart and I'm drawing annotations to it, it goes into a rare
108 |107 |00:09:55 ~-~-> 00:09:59 |an area where I don't have to say anything. You know, you know what I'm
109 |108 |00:09:59 ~-~-> 00:10:04 |pointing out. And. Interest in, you know what I'm showing attention to, so that
110 |109 |00:10:04 ~-~-> 00:10:07 |way you can, kind of like follow along, without having to have any language
111 |110 |00:10:07 ~-~-> 00:10:12 |barrier being issued. So volume and balance here trades off hits, it sells
112 |111 |00:10:12 ~-~-> 00:10:16 |off. And then we have one more area in here where I wanted to see this stay
113 |112 |00:10:16 ~-~-> 00:10:20 |open. It did. It broke down. And I said this was the last line of defense, which
114 |113 |00:10:20 ~-~-> 00:10:26 |was this little gap in here, and I wanted to see that basically act as an
115 |114 |00:10:26 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |inversion pay value gap. And initially it showed signs that it was wanting to,
116 |115 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:33 |it got down in here, and then once we entered back into the upper half of it,
117 |116 |00:10:33 ~-~-> 00:10:36 |that was all she wrote. Okay, so that means it was going to trace back up in,
118 |117 |00:10:36 ~-~-> 00:10:41 |stop me out, which is what it did. And it was in in profit. I took partials
119 |118 |00:10:41 ~-~-> 00:10:46 |along the way, and you're welcome to go and look at the telegram and see how the
120 |119 |00:10:46 ~-~-> 00:10:52 |trade was managed and where the partials were taken. Initially, I took more off
121 |120 |00:10:52 ~-~-> 00:10:58 |in the beginning of the trade because I wasn't comfortable holding the risk that
122 |121 |00:10:58 ~-~-> 00:11:04 |was on the trade, because I was put off by not seeing the relative equal highs
123 |122 |00:11:04 ~-~-> 00:11:09 |taken and all of this banging around in here just made me more reluctant to hold
124 |123 |00:11:09 ~-~-> 00:11:13 |the size. And it wasn't even that big of a trade. But just for me to be able to
125 |124 |00:11:13 ~-~-> 00:11:18 |call it live and manage it live in front of everybody, it's like 80,000 88,000
126 |125 |00:11:18 ~-~-> 00:11:25 |people in here. Now, I wanted to make sure that you saw me do those types of
127 |126 |00:11:25 ~-~-> 00:11:30 |things, not just simply, you know, I could put a position on 30 contracts,
128 |127 |00:11:30 ~-~-> 00:11:32 |you know, and then walk it down there and be like, Yeah, this is easy.
129 |128 |00:11:32 ~-~-> 00:11:37 |Yesterday was not easy. It has not been easy for the last well, since 2025
130 |129 |00:11:38 ~-~-> 00:11:42 |started. So I want you to know, as I said on X if anybody's trying to promote
131 |130 |00:11:42 ~-~-> 00:11:46 |the idea that trading right now is very easy, they're liars, okay? And they're
132 |131 |00:11:46 ~-~-> 00:11:49 |just trying to make an image for themselves. I promise you, they're
133 |132 |00:11:49 ~-~-> 00:11:54 |sweating. Everybody's feeling it. It's hard. So you have to be very, very
134 |133 |00:11:54 ~-~-> 00:11:59 |nimble, meaning that you have to be very careful how much risk you're putting on
135 |134 |00:11:59 ~-~-> 00:12:04 |the trade, and you have to be dialed in incredibly tight, because if you don't
136 |135 |00:12:04 ~-~-> 00:12:08 |know what it is that you're trying to do, and you don't know what the market's
137 |136 |00:12:08 ~-~-> 00:12:12 |in a high degree of probability likely to do next, and that's very hard to
138 |137 |00:12:12 ~-~-> 00:12:16 |determine right now, even for me, because there's a great deal
139 |138 |00:12:16 ~-~-> 00:12:21 |manipulation going on, and The volatility is absolutely insane. So that
140 |139 |00:12:21 ~-~-> 00:12:26 |climate, that condition, that environment for trading, makes it
141 |140 |00:12:26 ~-~-> 00:12:30 |extremely difficult. And these young guys that come out there, and they just
142 |141 |00:12:30 ~-~-> 00:12:36 |recently started to learn how to trade, they're letting their initial luck blind
143 |142 |00:12:36 ~-~-> 00:12:39 |them into thinking that they're far better than they really are. And I
144 |143 |00:12:40 ~-~-> 00:12:44 |experienced that too when I was 20 years old. But given enough time these
145 |144 |00:12:44 ~-~-> 00:12:48 |markets, if this stays in this type of environment, it's going to slap people
146 |145 |00:12:48 ~-~-> 00:12:51 |around, and eventually it's going to slap me. I'm going to I'm going to get
147 |146 |00:12:51 ~-~-> 00:12:54 |it wrong in front of you, legitimately get it wrong, and it's okay when it
148 |147 |00:12:54 ~-~-> 00:12:58 |happens. It's going to be okay for you to see it. It's going to be okay for me
149 |148 |00:12:58 ~-~-> 00:13:01 |to endure it, because I'm letting you know in advance that these are very
150 |149 |00:13:01 ~-~-> 00:13:06 |challenging conditions, even for me. So eventually the market did trade back up
151 |150 |00:13:06 ~-~-> 00:13:10 |higher, and we made a lower low than these relative equal lows here, but that
152 |151 |00:13:10 ~-~-> 00:13:15 |was it, and then we'd retrace back all the way in through the afternoon, and
153 |152 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:24 |let's take a look at what we have going forward. Here's our new day. I Okay,
154 |153 |00:13:24 ~-~-> 00:13:26 |gap, just mark those real quick.
155 |154 |00:13:38 ~-~-> 00:13:47 |And so we have basically ran out a level I was watching before I set to do this
156 |155 |00:13:47 ~-~-> 00:13:52 |recording here. I think we're going to return back into Uh Oh. There it is. Buy
157 |156 |00:13:52 ~-~-> 00:13:58 |side here after they unsettled these, at these lower, smooth lows. That's what I
158 |157 |00:13:58 ~-~-> 00:14:03 |was looking at up here. And it went down. Took that, and then this was the
159 |158 |00:14:03 ~-~-> 00:14:10 |next objective here. And it has done that. I think that it would be, if it
160 |159 |00:14:10 ~-~-> 00:14:14 |doesn't completely fall to bed, return back to yesterday's first presented fair
161 |160 |00:14:14 ~-~-> 00:14:26 |value gap, and then maybe go up into those smooth highs, which are here. So
162 |161 |00:14:26 ~-~-> 00:14:34 |looking at 21,004, 53.75, even trading up there, it is not something that would
163 |162 |00:14:34 ~-~-> 00:14:40 |unsettle the overall bearishness. See all the highs here, high there, here and
164 |163 |00:14:40 ~-~-> 00:14:43 |there. So there's, there's a nice pool of liquidity there in the form of buy
165 |164 |00:14:43 ~-~-> 00:14:48 |stops. So even if it went up there and knock those individuals out and then
166 |165 |00:14:48 ~-~-> 00:14:52 |resume going lower or go higher, that's, that's the benefit of looking at the
167 |166 |00:14:52 ~-~-> 00:14:57 |things I'm teaching. It doesn't require to be correct about bias. It doesn't
168 |167 |00:14:57 ~-~-> 00:15:01 |require that we're looking for logic. Multiple easy, low hanging fruit
169 |168 |00:15:01 ~-~-> 00:15:06 |objectives for liquidity to be tapped into. And if we focus on that and make
170 |169 |00:15:06 ~-~-> 00:15:13 |that our sole purpose in framing setups, it makes the whole aspect of sitting
171 |170 |00:15:13 ~-~-> 00:15:17 |down and hunting setups a lot more fun, because it's not a lot of moving parts
172 |171 |00:15:17 ~-~-> 00:15:21 |to the equation. It's simple, just looking for things that need to be made
173 |172 |00:15:21 ~-~-> 00:15:28 |jagged Okay, and we've done that down here after we've had a series of almost
174 |173 |00:15:28 ~-~-> 00:15:34 |a week of straight down days. So again, going in this morning, I will be looking
175 |174 |00:15:34 ~-~-> 00:15:39 |for some reason to see price go higher until it forms some kind of a contrarian
176 |175 |00:15:40 ~-~-> 00:15:45 |new setup that tells me I'm wrong in that aspect. So then I would actually
177 |176 |00:15:45 ~-~-> 00:15:49 |get in line with the market like it did yesterday. So again, I'm not trying to
178 |177 |00:15:49 ~-~-> 00:15:55 |pick the bottom. I'm just looking for the logical, easy expectation would be,
179 |178 |00:15:55 ~-~-> 00:15:59 |everybody's bearish right now, like everybody wants a short. Everybody has a
180 |179 |00:15:59 ~-~-> 00:16:04 |short on that's my that's my thinking right now. So where's the pain going to
181 |180 |00:16:04 ~-~-> 00:16:08 |be most felt for the individuals that are short and they're going to squeeze
182 |181 |00:16:08 ~-~-> 00:16:12 |on them? It doesn't mean it's going to go up 1000 points. Doesn't mean it's
183 |182 |00:16:12 ~-~-> 00:16:15 |going to go up 500 points. This means that it can go up a couple 100 points,
184 |183 |00:16:16 ~-~-> 00:16:19 |and that's nothing in the grand scheme of things, if we're ultimately going to
185 |184 |00:16:19 ~-~-> 00:16:28 |go down to levels like that low and these lows here, because they're
186 |185 |00:16:28 ~-~-> 00:16:33 |relatively equal, and we're just banging still into this very large trading
187 |186 |00:16:33 ~-~-> 00:16:38 |range. And that range is sloppy. It's not well organized, which makes it,
188 |187 |00:16:38 ~-~-> 00:16:43 |again, very, very challenging to pick the right levels to get in with a very
189 |188 |00:16:43 ~-~-> 00:16:47 |small risk stop loss. And it's just, it's very challenging, and I'm just
190 |189 |00:16:47 ~-~-> 00:16:52 |gonna leave it that I don't want to beat the dead horse. But it really is that
191 |190 |00:16:52 ~-~-> 00:16:59 |that straight and cut forward. It really is that clear and cut and straight
192 |191 |00:16:59 ~-~-> 00:17:03 |forward that it's challenging at this moment. So if you're feeling it, if
193 |192 |00:17:03 ~-~-> 00:17:09 |you've been apprehensive or reluctant to take a trade, great, that's exactly how
194 |193 |00:17:09 ~-~-> 00:17:12 |you should feel right now. Because unless you know what you're doing and
195 |194 |00:17:12 ~-~-> 00:17:16 |you know exactly how your model is to be implemented, chances are you're probably
196 |195 |00:17:16 ~-~-> 00:17:20 |going to end up getting hurt or losing money or going into drawdown simply
197 |196 |00:17:20 ~-~-> 00:17:23 |because you're trying to trade, because there's opportunity, based on the time
198 |197 |00:17:23 ~-~-> 00:17:28 |in the market being open, that is not what a professional mindset trader does.
199 |198 |00:17:28 ~-~-> 00:17:32 |They look for high probabilities with low risk and easy framework where it's
200 |199 |00:17:32 ~-~-> 00:17:35 |just almost like a guarantee that they're right on their direction. It's
201 |200 |00:17:35 ~-~-> 00:17:40 |likely to go this very clear level, and they're weak for their setups, and
202 |201 |00:17:40 ~-~-> 00:17:44 |that's not easy to do right now. So hope you found this insightful. I'll talk to
203 |202 |00:17:44 ~-~-> 00:17:46 |you later on the telegram channel until then, be safe. You.