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ICT YT - 2025-02-26 - 2025 Lecture Series - Telegram Commentary Market Review 02-25-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-04-03 12:13
1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:10 ICT: Good morning, folks. I apologize for my tardiness. I was supposed to do
2 00:00:10 --> 00:00:15 this review last link, but my son's had an issue at their home. Had to take care
3 00:00:15 --> 00:00:23 of that, and here we are. So be NASDAQ. All right, so I talked about yesterday
4 00:00:23 --> 00:00:28 in the telegram channel. I started the morning session off with a very modest
5 00:00:28 --> 00:00:33 bullish bias, and I'll explain what that meant. And for the folks that are brand
6 00:00:33 --> 00:00:38 new or just simply just don't understand what it is I'm referring to, I started
7 00:00:38 --> 00:00:44 the morning session off very, very early with an annotation posting an interest
8 00:00:44 --> 00:00:53 in the 20,004 30 level, which is this low here. This was yesterday's low. It
9 00:00:53 --> 00:00:58 was trading in that direction. Okay, what I wanted to see it do was go up
10 00:00:58 --> 00:01:05 into the 21,004 53.75, level. And I told everybody these levels here. I went
11 00:01:05 --> 00:01:10 through the charts from daily down to one hour, 15 minute, five minute, one
12 00:01:10 --> 00:01:14 minute chart. And what I wanted to see was I wanted to see it go up initially
13 00:01:14 --> 00:01:18 and then gravitate down towards this low. That was a whole premise. The first
14 00:01:18 --> 00:01:23 post I gave yesterday in telegram channel was this level here, which was
15 00:01:23 --> 00:01:30 this low. So obviously you can see the market did, in fact, try to work towards
16 00:01:30 --> 00:01:35 that level, but it failed to get to its old low. I don't think we're done okay.
17 00:01:35 --> 00:01:40 I think that it's still viable. It's still likely, but it needs to do, you
18 00:01:40 --> 00:01:44 know, short term retrace and consolidations before dimension gets
19 00:01:44 --> 00:01:50 down there and then this low here. Okay, so you're probably thinking, Well, why
20 00:01:50 --> 00:01:54 am I jumping over these two here? Well, because if it's going to go below here
21 00:01:54 --> 00:01:58 and accelerate, why just take these lows out when this one here is your base
22 00:02:00 --> 00:02:05 before all of this rally up. Okay, so we cleared all these relative equal highs
23 00:02:05 --> 00:02:13 out once we were this volume and balance rallied higher. And then you're probably
24 00:02:13 --> 00:02:17 thinking, you just said a volume amounts because it was labeled as kind of like a
25 00:02:17 --> 00:02:22 pseudo volume imbalance. It's a gap, but I use some of the rules for volume
26 00:02:22 --> 00:02:27 imbalances in there. You can see how it was a very challenging area here and
27 00:02:27 --> 00:02:31 right above, like we were looking for, and then it gave up the ghost and broke
28 00:02:31 --> 00:02:38 lower. But I posted these levels in here yesterday, and I'll show you on the 60
29 00:02:38 --> 00:02:45 minute chart. I'm okay, and that's what it looks like here, and that's where the
30 00:02:45 --> 00:02:51 buy side was initially. And then this inefficiency from here, that low, this
31 00:02:51 --> 00:02:56 candlesticks high, I refined it further as we went lower. So we go into a 15
32 00:02:56 --> 00:03:02 minute time frame. And then there's the candlesticks low, and then this candle
33 00:03:02 --> 00:03:07 sticks high. That was inefficiency, and see how smooth. That is really, really
34 00:03:07 --> 00:03:13 smooth. And I wanted to see it at the open in here. I wanted to see it go up
35 00:03:13 --> 00:03:19 and unsettle that, make that jagged, and then trade down into the first level I
36 00:03:19 --> 00:03:27 gave yesterday morning, really early, which doesn't appear to show up on this
37 00:03:27 --> 00:03:36 time frame, but basically this level eight there. Okay, you can see we got
38 00:03:36 --> 00:03:41 real close to it. This is simply didn't go up there and take the buy side. Okay,
39 00:03:41 --> 00:03:48 so that's not an incorrect bias, okay. It's an idea to anticipate the daily
40 00:03:48 --> 00:03:52 range forming. So in other words, where it opens, we want to see it trade out,
41 00:03:52 --> 00:03:56 create a Judas and then trade down to the level I gave guidance on at 20,009
42 00:03:57 --> 00:04:00 43 I'll drop down to a five minute chart.
43 00:04:07 --> 00:04:08 Okay, and
44 00:04:15 --> 00:04:20 930 opening price again, I wanted to see it get above this box, which we'll see
45 00:04:20 --> 00:04:24 on the one minute chart. I wanted to see it act as an inversion fair value gap. I
46 00:04:24 --> 00:04:29 want to see it trade above it come back down in respect only the upper half then
47 00:04:29 --> 00:04:32 displace and the next fear value gap after that. I would have used to get
48 00:04:32 --> 00:04:39 long to run into that buy side, then take the long off, then look for a short
49 00:04:39 --> 00:04:44 if it would have broke below first presented fair value gap after taking
50 00:04:44 --> 00:04:49 the buy side. That would have been a very, very easy model setup that I'm
51 00:04:49 --> 00:04:54 trying to employ for 2025 but it just simply wasn't able to do that. Just did
52 00:04:54 --> 00:04:58 not have any kind of interest at all. Don't want to go higher. It just melted.
53 00:04:59 --> 00:05:02 Okay? Just kept going. Lower, dropping down to a limited chart.
54 00:05:12 --> 00:05:14 Here's your new day opening up
55 00:05:20 --> 00:05:28 right and there's your 20,009 43 level. What I had in mind at the beginning of
56 00:05:28 --> 00:05:35 the telegram broadcast yesterday for February 25 2025 All right, so let's get
57 00:05:35 --> 00:05:38 in here and break this down real quick, because I don't want this to be a very
58 00:05:38 --> 00:05:44 long video. So up here is the buy side and where all those smooth highs are. So
59 00:05:44 --> 00:05:50 if we keep going back to the left, it's all of these highs all what I showed on
60 00:05:50 --> 00:05:57 the 15 minute time frame in the one hour chart. So we have the opening price
61 00:05:57 --> 00:06:02 here, right there on that candlestick, and we break down, we create the very
62 00:06:02 --> 00:06:06 first fair value gap, which is this little blue one. And I wanted to see it
63 00:06:06 --> 00:06:14 trade above this inefficiency. I'm using the volume imbalance in here for the low
64 00:06:14 --> 00:06:20 it, and I want to see it trade above it and close outside of it. Now it has to
65 00:06:20 --> 00:06:25 do this after 930 so here's 930 so I want to see a trade above this. That's
66 00:06:25 --> 00:06:31 what I had in mind. I had a modest bullish bias, which was limited to the
67 00:06:31 --> 00:06:36 very thing. I noted these smooth highs, and I said they were suspect they're too
68 00:06:36 --> 00:06:40 smooth. Okay, so if you're a student of mine, you know what that means, that
69 00:06:40 --> 00:06:44 we're likely go up there and make that smooth edge jagged. So that means it's
70 00:06:44 --> 00:06:49 going to do what, go up there, disrupt it. And then what was the other level? I
71 00:06:49 --> 00:06:55 started the day with 20,009 43 Okay, so that's why I emphasize I have a modest
72 00:06:55 --> 00:06:59 bullish bias. And then initially going into the opening, because I wanted to
73 00:06:59 --> 00:07:03 see it go up in these things, just to simply do, look at the posts, folks, I
74 00:07:03 --> 00:07:06 get it, there's going to be people that simply want to take things out of
75 00:07:06 --> 00:07:10 context because they want to sound smart, but they're looking foolish. So
76 00:07:10 --> 00:07:13 the point is, is I wanted to see it trade after 930 I want to see it trade
77 00:07:13 --> 00:07:19 above this inefficiency and act as a foolish and very bad bullish in Persian
78 00:07:19 --> 00:07:24 fair value gap. Tongue twister rallies up, and if it comes back down and
79 00:07:24 --> 00:07:29 supports price and doesn't go back in the lower half of it, then I want to see
80 00:07:29 --> 00:07:34 it make a run on here. But I have to see this inversion fair value gap produce
81 00:07:34 --> 00:07:38 the support structure. Then a small, little one minute inversion fair value
82 00:07:38 --> 00:07:42 gap, then I could have went long there, and that would have been a run into
83 00:07:42 --> 00:07:46 that. So I would have used whatever that little short term Scott would have been
84 00:07:46 --> 00:07:50 to take that exit reverse and then go lower. And then, if it would have went
85 00:07:50 --> 00:07:53 below the first presented fair value gap, I would have added or pyramided
86 00:07:53 --> 00:07:58 another entry there. But as you can see, it just simply did not give that run up
87 00:07:58 --> 00:08:05 there. It just stayed extremely heavy, and is it folded over? Now, this
88 00:08:05 --> 00:08:13 inefficiency, I'm gonna think it's a 15 minute time frame. I didn't label it.
89 00:08:13 --> 00:08:17 This is why you want to label your stuff when you're doing your annotations.
90 00:08:17 --> 00:08:21 Yeah, it's the 15 minute time frame. So this, this inefficiency I had that noted
91 00:08:21 --> 00:08:26 as well. It broke through, it came back up and acted as resistance. But the long
92 00:08:26 --> 00:08:34 and short of it is, we had no interest at all to go up and clear that smooth
93 00:08:34 --> 00:08:40 area of buy side. So I had to eventually just get in line with what the market
94 00:08:40 --> 00:08:48 was doing. And look for shorts. Market trades up into the lower half of that
95 00:08:48 --> 00:08:54 fair value gap. It breaks lower. We have a fair value gap there. And I said,
96 00:08:55 --> 00:08:59 we'll see if it wants to behave as an inversion fair value gap. If it fails to
97 00:08:59 --> 00:09:04 do so, it breaks down below it, then it means the consequent encroachment should
98 00:09:04 --> 00:09:12 be a what a barrier to it. So it's a failure to launch off of this inversion
99 00:09:12 --> 00:09:17 fair value gap. There's your entry. You can go short there. We have a fair value
100 00:09:17 --> 00:09:20 gap here. That's a Sibi trades up to consequent encroachment there, trades up
101 00:09:20 --> 00:09:24 into lower quadrants, off volume imbalance noted. All these things were
102 00:09:24 --> 00:09:29 noted as it was happening, posting it on the chart. I've tried to do yesterday,
103 00:09:30 --> 00:09:36 very little text descriptions, and I let the chart do the talking, because
104 00:09:36 --> 00:09:42 there's a language barrier. Still, for a lot of you that don't know how to, I
105 00:09:42 --> 00:09:50 guess, follow me in English, I'm trying to make it where it's visual. So if I'm
106 00:09:50 --> 00:09:55 showing you a chart and I'm drawing annotations to it, it goes into a rare
107 00:09:55 --> 00:09:59 an area where I don't have to say anything. You know, you know what I'm
108 00:09:59 --> 00:10:04 pointing out. And. Interest in, you know what I'm showing attention to, so that
109 00:10:04 --> 00:10:07 way you can, kind of like follow along, without having to have any language
110 00:10:07 --> 00:10:12 barrier being issued. So volume and balance here trades off hits, it sells
111 00:10:12 --> 00:10:16 off. And then we have one more area in here where I wanted to see this stay
112 00:10:16 --> 00:10:20 open. It did. It broke down. And I said this was the last line of defense, which
113 00:10:20 --> 00:10:26 was this little gap in here, and I wanted to see that basically act as an
114 00:10:26 --> 00:10:30 inversion pay value gap. And initially it showed signs that it was wanting to,
115 00:10:30 --> 00:10:33 it got down in here, and then once we entered back into the upper half of it,
116 00:10:33 --> 00:10:36 that was all she wrote. Okay, so that means it was going to trace back up in,
117 00:10:36 --> 00:10:41 stop me out, which is what it did. And it was in in profit. I took partials
118 00:10:41 --> 00:10:46 along the way, and you're welcome to go and look at the telegram and see how the
119 00:10:46 --> 00:10:52 trade was managed and where the partials were taken. Initially, I took more off
120 00:10:52 --> 00:10:58 in the beginning of the trade because I wasn't comfortable holding the risk that
121 00:10:58 --> 00:11:04 was on the trade, because I was put off by not seeing the relative equal highs
122 00:11:04 --> 00:11:09 taken and all of this banging around in here just made me more reluctant to hold
123 00:11:09 --> 00:11:13 the size. And it wasn't even that big of a trade. But just for me to be able to
124 00:11:13 --> 00:11:18 call it live and manage it live in front of everybody, it's like 80,000 88,000
125 00:11:18 --> 00:11:25 people in here. Now, I wanted to make sure that you saw me do those types of
126 00:11:25 --> 00:11:30 things, not just simply, you know, I could put a position on 30 contracts,
127 00:11:30 --> 00:11:32 you know, and then walk it down there and be like, Yeah, this is easy.
128 00:11:32 --> 00:11:37 Yesterday was not easy. It has not been easy for the last well, since 2025
129 00:11:38 --> 00:11:42 started. So I want you to know, as I said on X if anybody's trying to promote
130 00:11:42 --> 00:11:46 the idea that trading right now is very easy, they're liars, okay? And they're
131 00:11:46 --> 00:11:49 just trying to make an image for themselves. I promise you, they're
132 00:11:49 --> 00:11:54 sweating. Everybody's feeling it. It's hard. So you have to be very, very
133 00:11:54 --> 00:11:59 nimble, meaning that you have to be very careful how much risk you're putting on
134 00:11:59 --> 00:12:04 the trade, and you have to be dialed in incredibly tight, because if you don't
135 00:12:04 --> 00:12:08 know what it is that you're trying to do, and you don't know what the market's
136 00:12:08 --> 00:12:12 in a high degree of probability likely to do next, and that's very hard to
137 00:12:12 --> 00:12:16 determine right now, even for me, because there's a great deal
138 00:12:16 --> 00:12:21 manipulation going on, and The volatility is absolutely insane. So that
139 00:12:21 --> 00:12:26 climate, that condition, that environment for trading, makes it
140 00:12:26 --> 00:12:30 extremely difficult. And these young guys that come out there, and they just
141 00:12:30 --> 00:12:36 recently started to learn how to trade, they're letting their initial luck blind
142 00:12:36 --> 00:12:39 them into thinking that they're far better than they really are. And I
143 00:12:40 --> 00:12:44 experienced that too when I was 20 years old. But given enough time these
144 00:12:44 --> 00:12:48 markets, if this stays in this type of environment, it's going to slap people
145 00:12:48 --> 00:12:51 around, and eventually it's going to slap me. I'm going to I'm going to get
146 00:12:51 --> 00:12:54 it wrong in front of you, legitimately get it wrong, and it's okay when it
147 00:12:54 --> 00:12:58 happens. It's going to be okay for you to see it. It's going to be okay for me
148 00:12:58 --> 00:13:01 to endure it, because I'm letting you know in advance that these are very
149 00:13:01 --> 00:13:06 challenging conditions, even for me. So eventually the market did trade back up
150 00:13:06 --> 00:13:10 higher, and we made a lower low than these relative equal lows here, but that
151 00:13:10 --> 00:13:15 was it, and then we'd retrace back all the way in through the afternoon, and
152 00:13:15 --> 00:13:24 let's take a look at what we have going forward. Here's our new day. I Okay,
153 00:13:24 --> 00:13:26 gap, just mark those real quick.
154 00:13:38 --> 00:13:47 And so we have basically ran out a level I was watching before I set to do this
155 00:13:47 --> 00:13:52 recording here. I think we're going to return back into Uh Oh. There it is. Buy
156 00:13:52 --> 00:13:58 side here after they unsettled these, at these lower, smooth lows. That's what I
157 00:13:58 --> 00:14:03 was looking at up here. And it went down. Took that, and then this was the
158 00:14:03 --> 00:14:10 next objective here. And it has done that. I think that it would be, if it
159 00:14:10 --> 00:14:14 doesn't completely fall to bed, return back to yesterday's first presented fair
160 00:14:14 --> 00:14:26 value gap, and then maybe go up into those smooth highs, which are here. So
161 00:14:26 --> 00:14:34 looking at 21,004, 53.75, even trading up there, it is not something that would
162 00:14:34 --> 00:14:40 unsettle the overall bearishness. See all the highs here, high there, here and
163 00:14:40 --> 00:14:43 there. So there's, there's a nice pool of liquidity there in the form of buy
164 00:14:43 --> 00:14:48 stops. So even if it went up there and knock those individuals out and then
165 00:14:48 --> 00:14:52 resume going lower or go higher, that's, that's the benefit of looking at the
166 00:14:52 --> 00:14:57 things I'm teaching. It doesn't require to be correct about bias. It doesn't
167 00:14:57 --> 00:15:01 require that we're looking for logic. Multiple easy, low hanging fruit
168 00:15:01 --> 00:15:06 objectives for liquidity to be tapped into. And if we focus on that and make
169 00:15:06 --> 00:15:13 that our sole purpose in framing setups, it makes the whole aspect of sitting
170 00:15:13 --> 00:15:17 down and hunting setups a lot more fun, because it's not a lot of moving parts
171 00:15:17 --> 00:15:21 to the equation. It's simple, just looking for things that need to be made
172 00:15:21 --> 00:15:28 jagged Okay, and we've done that down here after we've had a series of almost
173 00:15:28 --> 00:15:34 a week of straight down days. So again, going in this morning, I will be looking
174 00:15:34 --> 00:15:39 for some reason to see price go higher until it forms some kind of a contrarian
175 00:15:40 --> 00:15:45 new setup that tells me I'm wrong in that aspect. So then I would actually
176 00:15:45 --> 00:15:49 get in line with the market like it did yesterday. So again, I'm not trying to
177 00:15:49 --> 00:15:55 pick the bottom. I'm just looking for the logical, easy expectation would be,
178 00:15:55 --> 00:15:59 everybody's bearish right now, like everybody wants a short. Everybody has a
179 00:15:59 --> 00:16:04 short on that's my that's my thinking right now. So where's the pain going to
180 00:16:04 --> 00:16:08 be most felt for the individuals that are short and they're going to squeeze
181 00:16:08 --> 00:16:12 on them? It doesn't mean it's going to go up 1000 points. Doesn't mean it's
182 00:16:12 --> 00:16:15 going to go up 500 points. This means that it can go up a couple 100 points,
183 00:16:16 --> 00:16:19 and that's nothing in the grand scheme of things, if we're ultimately going to
184 00:16:19 --> 00:16:28 go down to levels like that low and these lows here, because they're
185 00:16:28 --> 00:16:33 relatively equal, and we're just banging still into this very large trading
186 00:16:33 --> 00:16:38 range. And that range is sloppy. It's not well organized, which makes it,
187 00:16:38 --> 00:16:43 again, very, very challenging to pick the right levels to get in with a very
188 00:16:43 --> 00:16:47 small risk stop loss. And it's just, it's very challenging, and I'm just
189 00:16:47 --> 00:16:52 gonna leave it that I don't want to beat the dead horse. But it really is that
190 00:16:52 --> 00:16:59 that straight and cut forward. It really is that clear and cut and straight
191 00:16:59 --> 00:17:03 forward that it's challenging at this moment. So if you're feeling it, if
192 00:17:03 --> 00:17:09 you've been apprehensive or reluctant to take a trade, great, that's exactly how
193 00:17:09 --> 00:17:12 you should feel right now. Because unless you know what you're doing and
194 00:17:12 --> 00:17:16 you know exactly how your model is to be implemented, chances are you're probably
195 00:17:16 --> 00:17:20 going to end up getting hurt or losing money or going into drawdown simply
196 00:17:20 --> 00:17:23 because you're trying to trade, because there's opportunity, based on the time
197 00:17:23 --> 00:17:28 in the market being open, that is not what a professional mindset trader does.
198 00:17:28 --> 00:17:32 They look for high probabilities with low risk and easy framework where it's
199 00:17:32 --> 00:17:35 just almost like a guarantee that they're right on their direction. It's
200 00:17:35 --> 00:17:40 likely to go this very clear level, and they're weak for their setups, and
201 00:17:40 --> 00:17:44 that's not easy to do right now. So hope you found this insightful. I'll talk to
202 00:17:44 --> 00:17:46 you later on the telegram channel until then, be safe. You.