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2 |1 |00:00:00 ~-~-> 00:00:18 |ICT: Hi folks, welcome back. This is a session where usually the folks that
3 |2 |00:00:18 ~-~-> 00:00:24 |aren't really trying to learn anything. Leave comments, and let's say you're
4 |3 |00:00:24 ~-~-> 00:00:29 |talking too much. You talk too much. That's everything. This is the talkative
5 |4 |00:00:29 ~-~-> 00:00:32 |session. Okay, so that's that's what this is all about. Shotgun Saturday.
6 |5 |00:00:33 ~-~-> 00:00:39 |It's where I am allowing myself to just talk organically, just whatever comes to
7 |6 |00:00:39 ~-~-> 00:00:46 |mind, and kind of cover some things that are psychological, you know, that type
8 |7 |00:00:46 ~-~-> 00:00:53 |of approach to, I guess, a podcast type thing where I'm talking about things I
9 |8 |00:00:53 ~-~-> 00:00:58 |struggled with when I first started learning how to trade, when I teach
10 |9 |00:00:58 ~-~-> 00:01:05 |things And students give me feedback that the level of appreciation for me
11 |10 |00:01:05 ~-~-> 00:01:09 |covering certain things when I do these and what I've done in the past on
12 |11 |00:01:09 ~-~-> 00:01:18 |Twitter and X when I was active there, in the success stories I've received
13 |12 |00:01:18 ~-~-> 00:01:24 |from All of you that have eventually worked your way through a grinding pound
14 |13 |00:01:25 ~-~-> 00:01:31 |consistently profitable trading. I want to first get the technical perspective
15 |14 |00:01:31 ~-~-> 00:01:38 |of the NASDAQ out of the way and cover what I think is going to be pertinent
16 |15 |00:01:38 ~-~-> 00:01:46 |for the coming week, also, before I get to that, and for those that you, you
17 |16 |00:01:46 ~-~-> 00:01:50 |obviously, some of you know me well enough to know that this coming week is
18 |17 |00:01:50 ~-~-> 00:01:57 |my anniversary, so I will have been married to my wife 24 years, but we Were
19 |18 |00:01:57 ~-~-> 00:02:07 |together longer than that. So naturally, being a married man, my wife is now
20 |19 |00:02:07 ~-~-> 00:02:13 |scheduling my my week to come, so meaning that Monday should be a day for
21 |20 |00:02:13 ~-~-> 00:02:18 |me to be active in the telegram channel, but I can't guarantee the rest of the
22 |21 |00:02:18 ~-~-> 00:02:24 |week that I will be okay. So we're gonna be looking at real estate, and I don't
23 |22 |00:02:24 ~-~-> 00:02:29 |know how my schedule is going to be impacted by that. So where and how I can
24 |23 |00:02:30 ~-~-> 00:02:35 |I will give you whatever I have left in time that my wife doesn't consume this
25 |24 |00:02:35 ~-~-> 00:02:41 |coming week. So it is what it is, not gonna argue with her. So Monday, for
26 |25 |00:02:41 ~-~-> 00:02:47 |sure, I'll call the market in the morning session, and then we'll play day
27 |26 |00:02:47 ~-~-> 00:02:51 |by day the rest of the week. So with that out of the way, we're looking at a
28 |27 |00:02:51 ~-~-> 00:02:56 |daily chart here for NASDAQ. And I had a couple people leave comments suggesting
29 |28 |00:02:57 ~-~-> 00:03:03 |what I meant by Why is it being called difficult right now? Or why do I believe
30 |29 |00:03:03 ~-~-> 00:03:06 |that the market is difficult right now? Well, it's not limited to just right
31 |30 |00:03:06 ~-~-> 00:03:09 |now. It's been difficult for the last few years, really. I mean, it's been a
32 |31 |00:03:09 ~-~-> 00:03:13 |whole lot more manipulation in the marketplace, a lot of back and forth,
33 |32 |00:03:13 ~-~-> 00:03:17 |type price action, aggressive retracements, a lot of consolidation,
34 |33 |00:03:17 ~-~-> 00:03:23 |and then you get these short, little runs that are very, very quick and
35 |34 |00:03:23 ~-~-> 00:03:28 |sudden and sometimes violent, but they don't sustain themselves. They really
36 |35 |00:03:28 ~-~-> 00:03:33 |just come back into the range, or they peter out real quick. They just stop.
37 |36 |00:03:33 ~-~-> 00:03:40 |And it becomes very frustrating. So you can really see that encapsulated in the
38 |37 |00:03:41 ~-~-> 00:03:48 |last week of December here, we had this run down that's been great, and there's
39 |38 |00:03:48 ~-~-> 00:03:59 |been nice swings in that, but overall, we're stuck In this range. I'll
40 |39 |00:03:59 ~-~-> 00:04:09 |highlight it. So from here there, that's the range that we're stuck in. We had
41 |40 |00:04:09 ~-~-> 00:04:13 |one opportunity for the market to leave that and then we stayed inside of it
42 |41 |00:04:13 ~-~-> 00:04:20 |here. Stayed inside of it here. We had several attempts to go lower, but it's
43 |42 |00:04:20 ~-~-> 00:04:29 |been met with more accumulation and then staying inside that range. So because
44 |43 |00:04:29 ~-~-> 00:04:37 |it's staying inside of a range that's very well defined, when the volatility
45 |44 |00:04:37 ~-~-> 00:04:44 |within that range is violent, extremely violent. It makes trading difficult.
46 |45 |00:04:45 ~-~-> 00:04:49 |Okay, obviously, you know, spending time with me in the last weeks, you can see
47 |46 |00:04:49 ~-~-> 00:04:57 |that it's not impossible. But if it's going to be a question that you may pose
48 |47 |00:04:57 ~-~-> 00:05:00 |to me, if we were sitting and talking with one another in a cafe or. Ever and
49 |48 |00:05:00 ~-~-> 00:05:04 |said, Okay, Michael, in your opinion, do you think the market's been hard to
50 |49 |00:05:04 ~-~-> 00:05:11 |trade in the last few months, few weeks? And admittedly, I would say yes. And
51 |50 |00:05:11 ~-~-> 00:05:17 |traditionally, January's are typically like that, which is why I don't usually
52 |51 |00:05:17 ~-~-> 00:05:23 |like to do anything in the first month of the year. Now, I'll, I'll paper
53 |52 |00:05:23 ~-~-> 00:05:28 |trade. You know, I'll do demo trades, I'll tapered you. I'll do a lot of stuff
54 |53 |00:05:28 ~-~-> 00:05:34 |in January's price action, but I'm not actively trying to place real money bets
55 |54 |00:05:34 ~-~-> 00:05:39 |on that price action, because I want to get a feel for or connect, get in sync
56 |55 |00:05:39 ~-~-> 00:05:45 |with the marketplace in the month of January. Usually it's the second week of
57 |56 |00:05:45 ~-~-> 00:05:49 |February that I begin, and I start trading with, you know, live funds, and
58 |57 |00:05:50 ~-~-> 00:05:58 |I work towards whatever I'm aiming for, for that that year, you may have had an
59 |58 |00:05:58 ~-~-> 00:06:04 |easy January. Maybe you were profitable, okay? Or because social media really
60 |59 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:08 |inspires these types of things, maybe you found your way into profitability.
61 |60 |00:06:08 ~-~-> 00:06:14 |But if honesty was really allowed to come forth, you did it by luck. And then
62 |61 |00:06:14 ~-~-> 00:06:19 |now, because you have been profitable in January, you want to build it up larger
63 |62 |00:06:19 ~-~-> 00:06:25 |than it really is, so we'll see, you know, we'll see, for the folks that you
64 |63 |00:06:25 ~-~-> 00:06:29 |know feel that way, you know, at the end of the year, because there's this is
65 |64 |00:06:29 ~-~-> 00:06:35 |going to be a very challenging year, I know that going into it, because there's
66 |65 |00:06:35 ~-~-> 00:06:44 |so many things that, You know, the tariffs that are being placed on us by
67 |66 |00:06:44 ~-~-> 00:06:49 |other countries, and what we're trying to do to other countries here really is
68 |67 |00:06:49 ~-~-> 00:06:54 |going to cause people to have to spend more or do without, and that's not going
69 |68 |00:06:54 ~-~-> 00:06:59 |to be stimulating for the economy, and that's going to be impactful in Ways
70 |69 |00:06:59 ~-~-> 00:07:04 |that much of us don't really fully understand, and it's going to find its
71 |70 |00:07:04 ~-~-> 00:07:09 |way in the markets, and it's going to find its way in the trading. And I think
72 |71 |00:07:09 ~-~-> 00:07:17 |that you're seeing a lot of that here, where the market's being held in that
73 |72 |00:07:17 ~-~-> 00:07:24 |consolidation, and it's allowing a lot of selling interest and a lot of buying
74 |73 |00:07:24 ~-~-> 00:07:31 |interest outside that shaded area. So because I'm not a breakout trader, I
75 |74 |00:07:31 ~-~-> 00:07:36 |don't require the market to break out. Okay, I can trade inside the range. You
76 |75 |00:07:36 ~-~-> 00:07:40 |have to strip it down into very generic things like, what was the previous day's
77 |76 |00:07:40 ~-~-> 00:07:45 |high, what was the previous day's low? What was the previous session high like?
78 |77 |00:07:45 ~-~-> 00:07:48 |For instance, if you're going to trade the pm session in the afternoon for next
79 |78 |00:07:48 ~-~-> 00:07:53 |features, what was the morning High, Low? What's the equilibrium of that
80 |79 |00:07:53 ~-~-> 00:08:01 |range, halfway point and what are the new day opening gaps in the last five
81 |80 |00:08:01 ~-~-> 00:08:07 |days. What is the new week opening gap for the last five weeks? Those levels
82 |81 |00:08:07 ~-~-> 00:08:12 |are extremely important, and the market tends to go back to them because they're
83 |82 |00:08:12 ~-~-> 00:08:17 |they're actual value levels. Okay? Because the gap that was created there,
84 |83 |00:08:17 ~-~-> 00:08:22 |it's going to be referred to multiple times, not just simply, because it goes
85 |84 |00:08:22 ~-~-> 00:08:29 |back to it and fills the numbers. We don't forget about it. So inside this
86 |85 |00:08:29 ~-~-> 00:08:35 |range, if you're not nimble, if you're not looking for very easy, low hanging
87 |86 |00:08:35 ~-~-> 00:08:39 |fruit objectives, you can get caught offside. That means you're on the wrong
88 |87 |00:08:39 ~-~-> 00:08:43 |side of the market. And many times you'll force yourself to hold onto a
89 |88 |00:08:43 ~-~-> 00:08:48 |trade. It probably isn't all that great, because you're wrestling with
90 |89 |00:08:48 ~-~-> 00:08:52 |uncertainty and you've already committed and you're into a trade now. So
91 |90 |00:08:52 ~-~-> 00:08:58 |naturally, nobody likes to lose nobody likes to close a trade unprofitably, and
92 |91 |00:08:58 ~-~-> 00:09:03 |to close a trade that feels like it was a good idea when you first got into it,
93 |92 |00:09:03 ~-~-> 00:09:06 |and then after you've been in it for five or 10 minutes, you feel that
94 |93 |00:09:08 ~-~-> 00:09:13 |interest, that that confidence that you initially had waning. It's, it's it's
95 |94 |00:09:13 ~-~-> 00:09:18 |falling away. But then you start wrestling internally about, hey, this
96 |95 |00:09:18 ~-~-> 00:09:23 |is, this is quitting if I get out, you know, I'm not sticking to my plan. Well,
97 |96 |00:09:23 ~-~-> 00:09:29 |you have to build in some measure of expectation for periods when you do what
98 |97 |00:09:29 ~-~-> 00:09:37 |a human does. Do things wrong. And as a consistently profitable, professionally
99 |98 |00:09:37 ~-~-> 00:09:43 |minded trader, you have to give yourself permission to abort when you think that
100 |99 |00:09:43 ~-~-> 00:09:49 |what you got into the trade for initially, when that's no longer valid
101 |100 |00:09:49 ~-~-> 00:09:53 |or you're beginning to question it, the best thing you can do in this kind of
102 |101 |00:09:53 ~-~-> 00:10:01 |environment is pull the plug on it, because at any given moment. Something
103 |102 |00:10:01 ~-~-> 00:10:06 |could pop off geopolitically and cause these markets to run just like that, and
104 |103 |00:10:06 ~-~-> 00:10:09 |your little account will be smoked.
105 |104 |00:10:11 ~-~-> 00:10:16 |Have such a degree of drawdown, it will cause you to want to go into that loser
106 |105 |00:10:16 ~-~-> 00:10:20 |cycle trying to get it back, try to get it back when these market environments
107 |106 |00:10:20 ~-~-> 00:10:27 |stuck in a range like this amplifies greatly, exponentially the level of
108 |107 |00:10:27 ~-~-> 00:10:31 |difficulty it is for a new trader. Now, when you compound that with an impulsive
109 |108 |00:10:31 ~-~-> 00:10:37 |personality, which most people do have, that as especially males, young males,
110 |109 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:43 |they feel that they're more forbidden bull than they really are. They pretend
111 |110 |00:10:43 ~-~-> 00:10:46 |that they're far better as a trader. And I did all these things too, so don't
112 |111 |00:10:46 ~-~-> 00:10:51 |think I'm talking down to anyone. I did the same things when I was younger, but
113 |112 |00:10:51 ~-~-> 00:10:57 |you have to be very careful and have to guard yourself. Don't leave. Don't let
114 |113 |00:10:57 ~-~-> 00:11:00 |yourself have these vain imaginations that you're going to be able to walk out
115 |114 |00:11:01 ~-~-> 00:11:07 |here and just own the market when it's doing things like this. Now I've shared
116 |115 |00:11:08 ~-~-> 00:11:12 |real time analysis, I've shared executions, and I'm sure some of you
117 |116 |00:11:12 ~-~-> 00:11:17 |were probably impressed with that. I'm not impressed with that. Okay, I'm not
118 |117 |00:11:17 ~-~-> 00:11:21 |impressed with it at all, because I know that the conditions are holding back my
119 |118 |00:11:21 ~-~-> 00:11:28 |trading, so I have to be very, very selective, very nimble, and the types of
120 |119 |00:11:28 ~-~-> 00:11:32 |trades that I'm more comfortable holding for, I'm not comfortable holding right
121 |120 |00:11:32 ~-~-> 00:11:37 |now, because there's a lot of manual intervention. That means what the market
122 |121 |00:11:37 ~-~-> 00:11:43 |would generally do where it's very fluid and it's allowed to behave in a manner
123 |122 |00:11:43 ~-~-> 00:11:49 |that's low resistance. It's not being allowed to do that. It's being
124 |123 |00:11:49 ~-~-> 00:11:55 |strangled, it's being held. And when we can identify these types of market
125 |124 |00:11:55 ~-~-> 00:12:00 |conditions, we don't look at that and say, well, the moves aren't going to be
126 |125 |00:12:00 ~-~-> 00:12:04 |that great, so I'll just trade bigger positions to make up the difference.
127 |126 |00:12:05 ~-~-> 00:12:12 |That is trader suicide. You're literally euthanizing the future, profitable,
128 |127 |00:12:12 ~-~-> 00:12:17 |consistent trader in yourself by adopting that mindset, because what
129 |128 |00:12:17 ~-~-> 00:12:28 |you're trying to do is compensate versus allowing yourself to evolve, allowing
130 |129 |00:12:28 ~-~-> 00:12:33 |yourself to acclimate yourself to the present market conditions and sizing
131 |130 |00:12:33 ~-~-> 00:12:39 |down, lowering your measure of frequency and trade, lower your expectations of
132 |131 |00:12:39 ~-~-> 00:12:44 |what you expect to get from the trade those days where you're getting these
133 |132 |00:12:44 ~-~-> 00:12:51 |big, Blockbuster types of moves, we will have periods of that this year. I
134 |133 |00:12:51 ~-~-> 00:12:57 |believe in May, June, going into July, we're probably going to have amazing
135 |134 |00:12:58 ~-~-> 00:13:03 |volatility. May start as early as the last week of March. But typically around
136 |135 |00:13:03 ~-~-> 00:13:07 |mid April going into May. There's just a wonderful period of time where the
137 |136 |00:13:07 ~-~-> 00:13:15 |market just seems very easy to trade. And then the second part is in fall. So
138 |137 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:19 |usually the last week or so of August. It can be as early as that, but
139 |138 |00:13:19 ~-~-> 00:13:25 |generally September, October, November, in the first two weeks of December, we
140 |139 |00:13:25 ~-~-> 00:13:31 |have really nice volatility. That's clean price action. So if there's ever
141 |140 |00:13:31 ~-~-> 00:13:39 |been a year where you've been wanting to be careful, conservative, not over
142 |141 |00:13:39 ~-~-> 00:13:43 |leveraging, not trying to be a cowboy or a cowgirl. You're not trying to get on
143 |142 |00:13:43 ~-~-> 00:13:47 |this this market and treat it like a bull or a wild mustang and ride it for
144 |143 |00:13:47 ~-~-> 00:13:52 |all it's worth, because it may buck you off and you may fall and hurt yourself.
145 |144 |00:13:52 ~-~-> 00:13:58 |You may not be able to continue the rest of the year psychologically, because it
146 |145 |00:13:58 ~-~-> 00:14:02 |will cause you to have emotional, and psychological and financial damage to
147 |146 |00:14:02 ~-~-> 00:14:06 |the degree that will make you second guess every single trade you take after
148 |147 |00:14:06 ~-~-> 00:14:13 |that. So as an educator, I'm trying to be as responsible as I possibly can and
149 |148 |00:14:13 ~-~-> 00:14:23 |reminding you all that we are in very, very troubled waters. So as a commodity
150 |149 |00:14:23 ~-~-> 00:14:29 |trader, that is a wonderful condition, because that means there's going to be
151 |150 |00:14:29 ~-~-> 00:14:35 |big moves coming. Look at coffee. We'll look at coffee in a minute, but coffee
152 |151 |00:14:35 ~-~-> 00:14:39 |prices have gone through the roof. Cocoa. I talked about Coco two years
153 |152 |00:14:39 ~-~-> 00:14:45 |ago. I said it's likely to go up, and it has created a bull market that rivals
154 |153 |00:14:46 ~-~-> 00:14:55 |the velocity of even Bitcoin coffees doing very similar things. When you have
155 |154 |00:14:55 ~-~-> 00:15:00 |tariffs, when you have all these trade wars going on, you. Yeah, look at how
156 |155 |00:15:00 ~-~-> 00:15:05 |it's been for you at grocery store, expensive, isn't it? It's extremely
157 |156 |00:15:05 ~-~-> 00:15:13 |expensive. And that pain at the cashier when you're paying for your goods,
158 |157 |00:15:14 ~-~-> 00:15:18 |you're remembering that some of you probably are talking about it
159 |158 |00:15:18 ~-~-> 00:15:21 |constantly, complaining. Maybe complain to yourself, maybe complain to your co
160 |159 |00:15:21 ~-~-> 00:15:32 |workers, your friends. And that builds and it builds and builds, and all of a
161 |160 |00:15:32 ~-~-> 00:15:36 |sudden you feel like you have to be doing things recklessly just to get out
162 |161 |00:15:36 ~-~-> 00:15:41 |of that when it's not going to leave us anytime soon. In fact, I expect things
163 |162 |00:15:41 ~-~-> 00:15:48 |to get even more expensive. So that's not an invitation for us to be wild and
164 |163 |00:15:48 ~-~-> 00:15:53 |risk at all just to see if we can get a big win, to get us through that hump
165 |164 |00:15:53 ~-~-> 00:16:02 |right now, to get us through making our ends meet. These are the times where you
166 |165 |00:16:02 ~-~-> 00:16:07 |have to be very sober minded, and you have to slow your role, trying to be
167 |166 |00:16:07 ~-~-> 00:16:11 |very responsible with what you're given. In terms of the trading account,
168 |167 |00:16:12 ~-~-> 00:16:15 |whatever account it is, whatever equity size it is, you have to guard it,
169 |168 |00:16:16 ~-~-> 00:16:22 |because it's very, very easy to lose it in these types of conditions, and to
170 |169 |00:16:22 ~-~-> 00:16:25 |lose it when you're just trying to over leverage because you're feeling the
171 |170 |00:16:25 ~-~-> 00:16:30 |pinch of the everyday life being expensive, or the uncertainty of what
172 |171 |00:16:30 ~-~-> 00:16:35 |what's going to come down the pike later on. I think we're gonna have a very wild
173 |172 |00:16:36 ~-~-> 00:16:40 |summer. I believe it's gonna be a violent summer, not just in the markets,
174 |173 |00:16:40 ~-~-> 00:16:46 |but I believe it's going to be violent in the streets, and people are going to
175 |174 |00:16:47 ~-~-> 00:16:51 |pop off. They're going to just do crazy stuff. And you don't want to be doing
176 |175 |00:16:51 ~-~-> 00:16:55 |that in your trading accounts. You don't want to be risking it just because you
177 |176 |00:16:55 ~-~-> 00:17:01 |can afford the new market account to be reset at your prop firm, if that's how
178 |177 |00:17:01 ~-~-> 00:17:06 |you trade, because largely, that's most of what everybody's doing. Now it's
179 |178 |00:17:06 ~-~-> 00:17:10 |easier to do the lottery ticket, prop firm stuff, but they keep changing the
180 |179 |00:17:10 ~-~-> 00:17:14 |rules. They keep making it more difficult. They keep moving the goal
181 |180 |00:17:14 ~-~-> 00:17:18 |posts saying you can't do this, you can't make more money. You have to be
182 |181 |00:17:18 ~-~-> 00:17:22 |able to do this. You have to be able to do that when trading in itself is about
183 |182 |00:17:22 ~-~-> 00:17:26 |being profitable, and if you have a model that works well, there are times
184 |183 |00:17:26 ~-~-> 00:17:32 |when you want to push that model's edge, and there's times when you don't, and
185 |184 |00:17:32 ~-~-> 00:17:36 |prop firms are never going to let you push that edge when it's more
186 |185 |00:17:37 ~-~-> 00:17:41 |appropriate to do so for your Model and your present understanding about the
187 |186 |00:17:41 ~-~-> 00:17:47 |marketplace, but right now, even at the highest tier of my understanding of
188 |187 |00:17:47 ~-~-> 00:17:53 |price action, I would still not push with the largest level of leverage I
189 |188 |00:17:53 ~-~-> 00:18:01 |could use in this present art and condition. Wouldn't do it. Because you
190 |189 |00:18:01 ~-~-> 00:18:06 |might be asking, why not? You spit it out. What do you would you afraid of?
191 |190 |00:18:06 ~-~-> 00:18:12 |Michael, I am expecting a black swan event. I kind of built this up in you
192 |191 |00:18:12 ~-~-> 00:18:16 |guys over the last few years when I was talking about it, but I'm not going to
193 |192 |00:18:16 ~-~-> 00:18:19 |go into great detail, but you understand exactly what I'm talking about if you
194 |193 |00:18:19 ~-~-> 00:18:24 |were listening to me for a long period of time, and when I used to do Twitter
195 |194 |00:18:24 ~-~-> 00:18:31 |spaces, before it became X, and what's very forthcoming, I explained what I
196 |195 |00:18:31 ~-~-> 00:18:37 |viewed, in my opinion, was likely to occur, and we're seeing it, you know,
197 |196 |00:18:37 ~-~-> 00:18:41 |we're seeing all that stuff, and It's going to be very impactful to the
198 |197 |00:18:41 ~-~-> 00:18:48 |marketplace. And I don't say these things. That's how to worry you. I say
199 |198 |00:18:48 ~-~-> 00:18:54 |them because I want you to be aware that it's going to cause the market's
200 |199 |00:18:54 ~-~-> 00:19:01 |influence over people, to force the weaker person, the weaker trader, the
201 |200 |00:19:01 ~-~-> 00:19:10 |less responsible, the less rule based, critical mind to do things recklessly
202 |201 |00:19:10 ~-~-> 00:19:17 |and to gamble, and right now doing extremely large trade sizes, insisting
203 |202 |00:19:17 ~-~-> 00:19:24 |On big payouts, big wins, is a Gambler's mentality, and that's what I'm trying to
204 |203 |00:19:24 ~-~-> 00:19:29 |avoid. You know, in you as a student, because I don't want you to fall victim
205 |204 |00:19:29 ~-~-> 00:19:33 |to your own ignorance, because it's very easy to talk yourself into it's going to
206 |205 |00:19:33 ~-~-> 00:19:39 |happen. It's going to happen. I watched a gentleman that he really isn't all
207 |206 |00:19:39 ~-~-> 00:19:43 |that well known. I don't believe and apologize if it sounds condescending,
208 |207 |00:19:43 ~-~-> 00:19:47 |because I just, I don't, I don't think he's a well named, well known, rather
209 |208 |00:19:48 ~-~-> 00:19:54 |individual, but he tends to be somewhat of a gambler, and he live streams
210 |209 |00:19:54 ~-~-> 00:20:03 |sometimes, I guess. And he had a position on I. When, in my opinion, he
211 |210 |00:20:03 ~-~-> 00:20:07 |was more inspired to do it because he saw the outside influence of other
212 |211 |00:20:07 ~-~-> 00:20:08 |people talking about what he was doing,
213 |212 |00:20:10 ~-~-> 00:20:15 |and he adopted this, well, I'm going to do it because everybody else thinks I
214 |213 |00:20:15 ~-~-> 00:20:21 |shouldn't and I can't, and that's this climate's strength. That's the weapon
215 |214 |00:20:21 ~-~-> 00:20:28 |that this type of market condition uses on weaker minded, less informed,
216 |215 |00:20:29 ~-~-> 00:20:38 |undisciplined, impulsive, impulsive traders slash gamblers. They will
217 |216 |00:20:38 ~-~-> 00:20:42 |recklessly plunge ahead just because they want to be able to feel good about
218 |217 |00:20:42 ~-~-> 00:20:45 |themselves, be able to show it in the other people's face, to doubt them. Look
219 |218 |00:20:45 ~-~-> 00:20:50 |what I did. You said I couldn't do it. Look at this. Ha. Let's go. Let's go.
220 |219 |00:20:50 ~-~-> 00:20:55 |You don't want to be doing those types of things in this climate. Don't let
221 |220 |00:20:55 ~-~-> 00:21:01 |anybody influence you. Nobody even me. I'm trying to be a voice of reason when
222 |221 |00:21:01 ~-~-> 00:21:07 |I'm talking to you in these chuck on Saturdays, it's me trying to counsel you
223 |222 |00:21:07 ~-~-> 00:21:11 |through the voice of reason. I'm never telling you to trade with real money.
224 |223 |00:21:11 ~-~-> 00:21:15 |I'm never telling you to push the envelope in terms of leverage or over
225 |224 |00:21:15 ~-~-> 00:21:20 |trading. I'm actually saying the opposite, and I'm saying go down to one
226 |225 |00:21:20 ~-~-> 00:21:27 |contract go down to one trade per day, and be content with that, until we leave
227 |226 |00:21:27 ~-~-> 00:21:32 |this range here. And I personally don't care what side it leaves. It could go
228 |227 |00:21:32 ~-~-> 00:21:36 |higher, it can go lower. I don't care. But as long as we're inside this range,
229 |228 |00:21:36 ~-~-> 00:21:40 |it's going to just hammer back and forth, bang around, and the ranges are
230 |229 |00:21:40 ~-~-> 00:21:47 |going to be ridiculous. They're going to be one impulsive run. Then it stays in
231 |230 |00:21:47 ~-~-> 00:21:53 |the either upper half or the lower half of the range that was defined. And you
232 |231 |00:21:53 ~-~-> 00:21:58 |have these weird wiki days, and you miss the one good opportunity. You missed the
233 |232 |00:21:58 ~-~-> 00:22:03 |real, you know, real trade for that day. And what I've done is, is I've adopted
234 |233 |00:22:03 ~-~-> 00:22:10 |this mindset that I'm going to look for the setup, either pre market or in the
235 |234 |00:22:10 ~-~-> 00:22:13 |opening range. I'll look for the first percent of fair value gap, and then I'll
236 |235 |00:22:13 ~-~-> 00:22:18 |use that with a bias, and I get a piece of it, and that's it. I'm not demanding
237 |236 |00:22:18 ~-~-> 00:22:26 |that I get all of it. So here I am. I'm 33 years experience into this, and I'm
238 |237 |00:22:26 ~-~-> 00:22:31 |telling you, I'm lowering my perspective. I'm lowering my
239 |238 |00:22:34 ~-~-> 00:22:41 |expectations for the best case scenario. Normally, when we're not in a range in
240 |239 |00:22:41 ~-~-> 00:22:46 |the market like this, I have a little bit wider range of opportunity. I always
241 |240 |00:22:46 ~-~-> 00:22:49 |have, like, a best case scenario, no matter when I trade and how I trade, I
242 |241 |00:22:49 ~-~-> 00:22:55 |always have the best case scenario if I'm right at all levels of correctness,
243 |242 |00:22:56 ~-~-> 00:23:00 |and it really takes off in my long or really takes off in my short what is the
244 |243 |00:23:00 ~-~-> 00:23:05 |best case scenario that I could ever expect for that trade to pay out? That's
245 |244 |00:23:05 ~-~-> 00:23:10 |usually where I'll put my my limit order in. But I'm not demanding that level be
246 |245 |00:23:10 ~-~-> 00:23:15 |hit, for me to be profitable. I'm taking something off at logical levels, either
247 |246 |00:23:15 ~-~-> 00:23:19 |an imbalance that's opposed to my trade direction. In other words, if I'm long,
248 |247 |00:23:19 ~-~-> 00:23:25 |I'm looking for bearish fair value gap. Once it fills the number on it, I might
249 |248 |00:23:25 ~-~-> 00:23:31 |take a partial there. Or if I see a old bearish fair value gap when I'm long,
250 |249 |00:23:32 ~-~-> 00:23:35 |and then it becomes an inversion fair value gap the next short term high,
251 |250 |00:23:35 ~-~-> 00:23:40 |whether it's buy side, they're not partial there. So I'm already building
252 |251 |00:23:40 ~-~-> 00:23:46 |in areas, even before I put the stop loss and enter the trade, I already know
253 |252 |00:23:46 ~-~-> 00:23:50 |where I'm going to reach for to potentially take something off and
254 |253 |00:23:50 ~-~-> 00:23:56 |secure something in terms of a profit. Are you doing that presently? Have you
255 |254 |00:23:56 ~-~-> 00:24:00 |done it in the past? Like that? Because that's a sound, principally oriented,
256 |255 |00:24:00 ~-~-> 00:24:09 |rule based trader, that's someone that has the ability to plan correctly a
257 |256 |00:24:09 ~-~-> 00:24:17 |trade, and then having that plan and then executing on it is excellence in
258 |257 |00:24:17 ~-~-> 00:24:25 |execution, and that's what You should be striving to do. You want your trading to
259 |258 |00:24:25 ~-~-> 00:24:30 |be so refined, it doesn't matter how much you're making per trade, because if
260 |259 |00:24:30 ~-~-> 00:24:34 |you refine your model, and you refine your trading edge, you get to the point
261 |260 |00:24:34 ~-~-> 00:24:39 |where you're consistently able to see, I know there's going to be a setup in the
262 |261 |00:24:39 ~-~-> 00:24:44 |coming hour, in the next three hours for this morning session or in the afternoon
263 |262 |00:24:44 ~-~-> 00:24:47 |session. You know there's a setup coming. You know what it's likely to
264 |263 |00:24:47 ~-~-> 00:24:51 |reach for because of your experience. You know how they're going to target
265 |264 |00:24:51 ~-~-> 00:24:58 |that liquidity above or below. And you very selectively look for your entries,
266 |265 |00:24:58 ~-~-> 00:25:04 |and you place a very. A realistic stop loss, not opening yourself up to wider
267 |266 |00:25:04 ~-~-> 00:25:10 |risk than it's necessary, but then also not demanding that it's so small and
268 |267 |00:25:10 ~-~-> 00:25:16 |thin that you want to be able to impress everybody online because you had a one
269 |268 |00:25:16 ~-~-> 00:25:21 |handle stop loss. The volatility in the market right now is extremely, extremely
270 |269 |00:25:21 ~-~-> 00:25:28 |high. So I have to pick my shots very carefully, very, very carefully, and I
271 |270 |00:25:28 ~-~-> 00:25:33 |don't care what the final outcome is. I'm more concerned about am I following
272 |271 |00:25:33 ~-~-> 00:25:38 |my rule based ideas, the principles I have behind my models, and I'm being
273 |272 |00:25:38 ~-~-> 00:25:43 |very diligent about staying within those parameters, because left to my own
274 |273 |00:25:43 ~-~-> 00:25:48 |devices as a human being, you know, I could, I could get wrapped up in
275 |274 |00:25:48 ~-~-> 00:25:54 |believing that I'm going to outperform the current market condition, and then I
276 |275 |00:25:54 ~-~-> 00:25:59 |would incur losses, draw down, and then I would feel demoralized, because it
277 |276 |00:25:59 ~-~-> 00:26:06 |goes against what I've trained myself to observe in my own actions, and what the
278 |277 |00:26:06 ~-~-> 00:26:10 |market is typically, usually doing this time of year and when it's in these
279 |278 |00:26:10 ~-~-> 00:26:15 |environments like this. So in closing, because I don't want this one to be
280 |279 |00:26:15 ~-~-> 00:26:19 |long, and there's some of you are hissing ammonia, come on, I like the
281 |280 |00:26:19 ~-~-> 00:26:23 |four hour one. We won't ever see a four hour one anymore. Okay, I don't have it
282 |281 |00:26:23 ~-~-> 00:26:28 |in the tank anymore, but we have these relative equal highs I mentioned on on
283 |282 |00:26:28 ~-~-> 00:26:31 |time and trades, which, again, congratulations on your 100,000
284 |283 |00:26:31 ~-~-> 00:26:41 |subscriber. Look forward to your unboxing the January 22 I mentioned in
285 |284 |00:26:41 ~-~-> 00:26:46 |her live stream to note that because that high with this high here, those
286 |285 |00:26:46 ~-~-> 00:26:51 |are, those are relative equal highs there. So it's a very obvious buy side
287 |286 |00:26:51 ~-~-> 00:26:57 |liquidity pool daily chart based there, we've been working with this gap here a
288 |287 |00:26:57 ~-~-> 00:27:04 |couple different times. Now I'm not convinced that they're done pumping up.
289 |288 |00:27:05 ~-~-> 00:27:10 |I think that's too clean. So even if it takes it higher after going above those
290 |289 |00:27:10 ~-~-> 00:27:17 |highs, or if they take it above those highs and then that tops the market, I'm
291 |290 |00:27:17 ~-~-> 00:27:22 |still, you know, I think these highs are suspect. Now I'm willing to be wrong.
292 |291 |00:27:22 ~-~-> 00:27:28 |It's okay, but right now, I'm not buying that this was all there was to it okay,
293 |292 |00:27:28 ~-~-> 00:27:32 |because really, we're just working this gap. So I just wanted to sit with you
294 |293 |00:27:32 ~-~-> 00:27:37 |for a little while this morning and kind of be a voice of reason. Just remind you
295 |294 |00:27:37 ~-~-> 00:27:45 |that there are extremely high risks, and running into them, you know, with your
296 |295 |00:27:45 ~-~-> 00:27:51 |sword out, throwing your you your shield to the side, thing, it's going to be me
297 |296 |00:27:51 ~-~-> 00:27:55 |swinging, hacking and taking down the marketplace. It's not like, like, that's
298 |297 |00:27:55 ~-~-> 00:28:03 |going to be successful doing that. Be selective, be patient and demand, high
299 |298 |00:28:03 ~-~-> 00:28:08 |probability setups, very high quality setups too, and you'll probably do
300 |299 |00:28:08 ~-~-> 00:28:13 |better going into this year. That's all I got for you. Today. I will touch base
301 |300 |00:28:13 ~-~-> 00:28:17 |with you, Lord willing, on Monday morning in the telegram channel, and I
302 |301 |00:28:17 ~-~-> 00:28:20 |wish you all very pleasant weekend, until I'll talk to you, then be safe.
303 |302 |00:28:20 ~-~-> 00:28:21 |You.