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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 13:42
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2 |1 |00:00:01 ~-~-> 00:00:04 |ICT: Hello folks, how are you? Hope you have a nice holiday. I'm just going to
3 |2 |00:00:04 ~-~-> 00:00:12 |get right into it here real quick. So it is Sunday, 10 minutes after four Eastern
4 |3 |00:00:12 ~-~-> 00:00:17 |time, pm, ahead of the Sunday opening. So this is what we have on a weekly
5 |4 |00:00:17 ~-~-> 00:00:24 |chart. I have the high in the low delineated for the month of November for
6 |5 |00:00:24 ~-~-> 00:00:31 |NQ. And we have this imbalance in here. This candle is low, this candle is high,
7 |6 |00:00:32 ~-~-> 00:00:40 |this area right in here, and with volume imbalance right there, I'm not going to
8 |7 |00:00:40 ~-~-> 00:00:44 |note that, but have that on your chart as well. So we have buy side sitting
9 |8 |00:00:44 ~-~-> 00:00:55 |here, sell side sitting here. Before the opening bell at 6pm I favor a run here,
10 |9 |00:00:55 ~-~-> 00:01:01 |because I'm trying to avoid picking on top of the market. So if we do
11 |10 |00:01:01 ~-~-> 00:01:05 |continuously move higher. I expect to see us break higher. And one of the
12 |11 |00:01:05 ~-~-> 00:01:10 |levels we can look for is this low, up to this high.
13 |12 |00:01:16 ~-~-> 00:01:23 |So 21,005, 80 and a quarter. So if we break this high, using this retracement
14 |13 |00:01:23 ~-~-> 00:01:27 |to this high, and that's what I'm looking for as a upside objective,
15 |14 |00:01:27 ~-~-> 00:01:38 |should we break above and continue above November's high? Okay, and now we drop
16 |15 |00:01:38 ~-~-> 00:01:39 |down to our daily chart. I'm
17 |16 |00:01:44 ~-~-> 00:01:45 |so see that we have
18 |17 |00:01:52 ~-~-> 00:01:58 |this gap and then this box out of balance, also in efficiency, and we have
19 |18 |00:01:59 ~-~-> 00:02:10 |this volume of valance with this city. So if you note that you can see the
20 |19 |00:02:10 ~-~-> 00:02:11 |bodies are respecting
21 |20 |00:02:17 ~-~-> 00:02:22 |here in consequent encroachment of this range. See it straight down to it there.
22 |21 |00:02:23 ~-~-> 00:02:29 |This is what I was referring to, 1x I said that this promotes very difficult
23 |22 |00:02:29 ~-~-> 00:02:32 |trading for sustained price runs. Doesn't mean you can't take trades. This
24 |23 |00:02:32 ~-~-> 00:02:38 |means that to have sustained price runs, from the daily perspective, this city in
25 |24 |00:02:38 ~-~-> 00:02:48 |here, price has been I held in a little too long, and it's normal because of the
26 |25 |00:02:48 ~-~-> 00:02:56 |holiday, the Thanksgiving holiday in the US makes a little bit less likely to see
27 |26 |00:02:56 ~-~-> 00:03:00 |large flows come into the marketplace. And you saw that last week, a lot of
28 |27 |00:03:01 ~-~-> 00:03:06 |range bound activity. And then we have this portion up here, this gap, which
29 |28 |00:03:06 ~-~-> 00:03:09 |is, let me see here.
30 |29 |00:03:17 ~-~-> 00:03:25 |Okay, and should we break higher and we come back down in this could be treated
31 |30 |00:03:25 ~-~-> 00:03:28 |as an inversion fair value gap. That's why I've highlighted that color, and
32 |31 |00:03:28 ~-~-> 00:03:34 |that might provide a catalyst to send price up above November's high and then
33 |32 |00:03:34 ~-~-> 00:03:40 |to the extension level that I just showed on the daily chart drop down into
34 |33 |00:03:40 ~-~-> 00:03:44 |an hourly chart now, so we have these relative equal highs here. I'm not so
35 |34 |00:03:44 ~-~-> 00:03:50 |concerned about this, this wick, because we almost got to consequent encroachment
36 |35 |00:03:50 ~-~-> 00:03:55 |of this wick with these relative equal highs. My focus was primarily, do we get
37 |36 |00:03:55 ~-~-> 00:03:59 |above these two relative equal highs, and does it show strength and
38 |37 |00:03:59 ~-~-> 00:04:07 |willingness to protract from these highs and then higher. So we're already just
39 |38 |00:04:07 ~-~-> 00:04:12 |sitting on top of that potential inversion fair value gap. This drew on
40 |39 |00:04:12 ~-~-> 00:04:18 |the daily chart, so we had stop run with this low, taking that here you'll see
41 |40 |00:04:18 ~-~-> 00:04:23 |when we get down to 15. And time frame with this is, here's a volume imbalance,
42 |41 |00:04:23 ~-~-> 00:04:27 |but we did have a stop around here, and then we left these relative equal highs.
43 |42 |00:04:27 ~-~-> 00:04:31 |So I'm watching to see what we do in regards to that. Should we get up there?
44 |43 |00:04:32 ~-~-> 00:04:35 |Obviously, I don't know what the opening price is going to be on Sunday. No one
45 |44 |00:04:35 ~-~-> 00:04:39 |knows that. And then if we get above here, I would like to see them
46 |45 |00:04:39 ~-~-> 00:04:45 |completely ignore this, wick this trade higher, and then reach up into
47 |46 |00:04:45 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |November's high, which is up here, a little bit of a range up there, if we
48 |47 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:05:00 |lose this low, then obviously that changes things for the week. But I. I'm
49 |48 |00:05:00 ~-~-> 00:05:07 |focusing on maintaining a bullish stance on stock indices proven wrong by a
50 |49 |00:05:07 ~-~-> 00:05:11 |breakdown, then I'll switch gears. But until then, I'm going to stay with the
51 |50 |00:05:11 ~-~-> 00:05:15 |higher Time Frame narrative being bullish. So 15 minute time frame. You
52 |51 |00:05:15 ~-~-> 00:05:20 |can see there's that volume of Valence here on Wednesday. Draw that out. Side,
53 |52 |00:05:20 ~-~-> 00:05:25 |below there, and hit it beautifully, and then extrapolates to the upside about
54 |53 |00:05:25 ~-~-> 00:05:32 |the vehicle. Highs have been taken there. These are the next set of highs
55 |54 |00:05:32 ~-~-> 00:05:39 |I'm looking for. And this is the new week, opening gap. Upper quadrant,
56 |55 |00:05:39 ~-~-> 00:05:44 |consequence, lower quadrant, low and high respectively. And Monday's trading
57 |56 |00:05:44 ~-~-> 00:05:49 |here breaks lower hits the sell side there, left this cell side, which later
58 |57 |00:05:49 ~-~-> 00:05:54 |came back down. And Wednesday took it traded back up into Costco, encroachment
59 |58 |00:05:54 ~-~-> 00:05:58 |of the new week, opening gap. Let me go back here. First Look, really this. This
60 |59 |00:05:58 ~-~-> 00:06:02 |is appreciate the the precision that this, this concept I shared with you,
61 |60 |00:06:03 ~-~-> 00:06:07 |provides we trade back up to the high. But here, break out of it, hit the sell
62 |61 |00:06:07 ~-~-> 00:06:11 |side, come back up. Consequent encouragement the low, new week, opening
63 |62 |00:06:11 ~-~-> 00:06:20 |gap, upper quadrant, sweep below it. False. Break, breaks higher. Low trades
64 |63 |00:06:20 ~-~-> 00:06:24 |back up upper quadrant. Consequent encroachment, consequent encroachment.
65 |64 |00:06:24 ~-~-> 00:06:31 |Twice trades outside of it to SIDBI. Optimal trade entry sells off, sweeps
66 |65 |00:06:31 ~-~-> 00:06:35 |below the level that constitutes the inversion of everybody. Gap we're
67 |66 |00:06:35 ~-~-> 00:06:41 |looking at now trades back up above volume balance, consequent encroachment
68 |67 |00:06:41 ~-~-> 00:06:46 |of new week opening gap trades outside of it. Cleans up some of this cell side
69 |68 |00:06:46 ~-~-> 00:06:49 |in here, rallies back up high the new week opening gap. Consequent
70 |69 |00:06:49 ~-~-> 00:06:52 |encroachment. Low. Look at the bodies respecting it. Conclude encroachment as
71 |70 |00:06:53 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |well. Breaks lower lower quadrant sinks it to the volume of balance. Cell Size
72 |71 |00:06:57 ~-~-> 00:07:01 |taken, lower quadrant, oh, the inversion, fair value gap. The shaded
73 |72 |00:07:01 ~-~-> 00:07:06 |area orange, that's what this is here, trades up, comes back down into new week
74 |73 |00:07:06 ~-~-> 00:07:09 |opening gap. High. Now we're sitting here, even though it looks a little
75 |74 |00:07:09 ~-~-> 00:07:15 |toppy in here, I'd like to see us try to make an intent to to run aggressively
76 |75 |00:07:15 ~-~-> 00:07:21 |higher, to come back down to new week opening gap. You know, can it do that?
77 |76 |00:07:21 ~-~-> 00:07:26 |Sure. I guess it could. I'd like to see it. Maybe let's do it like this. Say we
78 |77 |00:07:26 ~-~-> 00:07:35 |open with a softer opening on 6pm here, in about 90 minutes or so, if that were
79 |78 |00:07:35 ~-~-> 00:07:40 |to happen, and we open softer, and once we get a gap opening lower, trade down,
80 |79 |00:07:40 ~-~-> 00:07:45 |hit new week opening gap and then trade back above the gap. That's trade by this
81 |80 |00:07:45 ~-~-> 00:07:49 |present new week opening gap that would form if it did that trade above that and
82 |81 |00:07:49 ~-~-> 00:07:52 |then come back down and find some support there and then rally higher.
83 |82 |00:07:52 ~-~-> 00:07:56 |That would be a little bit more favorable idea. I certainly don't want
84 |83 |00:07:56 ~-~-> 00:07:59 |to see it open up here and then start to trade back down the new week opening
85 |84 |00:07:59 ~-~-> 00:08:05 |gap. It's a little bit harder to navigate with that on Monday. So trading
86 |85 |00:08:05 ~-~-> 00:08:11 |on Monday would be optimal for me, if we open trade down, in other words, the gap
87 |86 |00:08:11 ~-~-> 00:08:14 |somewhere in here, trade down to new week opening up, and then go back over
88 |87 |00:08:14 ~-~-> 00:08:19 |top the new week of gap this forming this week, if it were to gap lower than
89 |88 |00:08:20 ~-~-> 00:08:25 |or we close that here. Okay, so we have Non Farm Payroll conditions. So you want
90 |89 |00:08:25 ~-~-> 00:08:32 |to try to focus on your setups on Monday and Tuesday and be done by New York
91 |90 |00:08:32 ~-~-> 00:08:37 |session opening on Wednesday. That's for new traders. That's for folks that are
92 |91 |00:08:37 ~-~-> 00:08:41 |new to my concepts or new to trading, because it just gets a little bit more
93 |92 |00:08:41 ~-~-> 00:08:47 |squirrely or difficult after Wednesday's New York opening. Okay, and that's going
94 |93 |00:08:47 ~-~-> 00:08:51 |to be it for this one. And I'll talk to you guys tomorrow, I'm sure, until then,
95 |94 |00:08:51 ~-~-> 00:08:51 |be safe. You.