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ICT YT - 2024-12-01 - New Week Commentary For Nq Futures

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 13:42
1 00:00:01 --> 00:00:04 ICT: Hello folks, how are you? Hope you have a nice holiday. I'm just going to
2 00:00:04 --> 00:00:12 get right into it here real quick. So it is Sunday, 10 minutes after four Eastern
3 00:00:12 --> 00:00:17 time, pm, ahead of the Sunday opening. So this is what we have on a weekly
4 00:00:17 --> 00:00:24 chart. I have the high in the low delineated for the month of November for
5 00:00:24 --> 00:00:31 NQ. And we have this imbalance in here. This candle is low, this candle is high,
6 00:00:32 --> 00:00:40 this area right in here, and with volume imbalance right there, I'm not going to
7 00:00:40 --> 00:00:44 note that, but have that on your chart as well. So we have buy side sitting
8 00:00:44 --> 00:00:55 here, sell side sitting here. Before the opening bell at 6pm I favor a run here,
9 00:00:55 --> 00:01:01 because I'm trying to avoid picking on top of the market. So if we do
10 00:01:01 --> 00:01:05 continuously move higher. I expect to see us break higher. And one of the
11 00:01:05 --> 00:01:10 levels we can look for is this low, up to this high.
12 00:01:16 --> 00:01:23 So 21,005, 80 and a quarter. So if we break this high, using this retracement
13 00:01:23 --> 00:01:27 to this high, and that's what I'm looking for as a upside objective,
14 00:01:27 --> 00:01:38 should we break above and continue above November's high? Okay, and now we drop
15 00:01:38 --> 00:01:39 down to our daily chart. I'm
16 00:01:44 --> 00:01:45 so see that we have
17 00:01:52 --> 00:01:58 this gap and then this box out of balance, also in efficiency, and we have
18 00:01:59 --> 00:02:10 this volume of valance with this city. So if you note that you can see the
19 00:02:10 --> 00:02:11 bodies are respecting
20 00:02:17 --> 00:02:22 here in consequent encroachment of this range. See it straight down to it there.
21 00:02:23 --> 00:02:29 This is what I was referring to, 1x I said that this promotes very difficult
22 00:02:29 --> 00:02:32 trading for sustained price runs. Doesn't mean you can't take trades. This
23 00:02:32 --> 00:02:38 means that to have sustained price runs, from the daily perspective, this city in
24 00:02:38 --> 00:02:48 here, price has been I held in a little too long, and it's normal because of the
25 00:02:48 --> 00:02:56 holiday, the Thanksgiving holiday in the US makes a little bit less likely to see
26 00:02:56 --> 00:03:00 large flows come into the marketplace. And you saw that last week, a lot of
27 00:03:01 --> 00:03:06 range bound activity. And then we have this portion up here, this gap, which
28 00:03:06 --> 00:03:09 is, let me see here.
29 00:03:17 --> 00:03:25 Okay, and should we break higher and we come back down in this could be treated
30 00:03:25 --> 00:03:28 as an inversion fair value gap. That's why I've highlighted that color, and
31 00:03:28 --> 00:03:34 that might provide a catalyst to send price up above November's high and then
32 00:03:34 --> 00:03:40 to the extension level that I just showed on the daily chart drop down into
33 00:03:40 --> 00:03:44 an hourly chart now, so we have these relative equal highs here. I'm not so
34 00:03:44 --> 00:03:50 concerned about this, this wick, because we almost got to consequent encroachment
35 00:03:50 --> 00:03:55 of this wick with these relative equal highs. My focus was primarily, do we get
36 00:03:55 --> 00:03:59 above these two relative equal highs, and does it show strength and
37 00:03:59 --> 00:04:07 willingness to protract from these highs and then higher. So we're already just
38 00:04:07 --> 00:04:12 sitting on top of that potential inversion fair value gap. This drew on
39 00:04:12 --> 00:04:18 the daily chart, so we had stop run with this low, taking that here you'll see
40 00:04:18 --> 00:04:23 when we get down to 15. And time frame with this is, here's a volume imbalance,
41 00:04:23 --> 00:04:27 but we did have a stop around here, and then we left these relative equal highs.
42 00:04:27 --> 00:04:31 So I'm watching to see what we do in regards to that. Should we get up there?
43 00:04:32 --> 00:04:35 Obviously, I don't know what the opening price is going to be on Sunday. No one
44 00:04:35 --> 00:04:39 knows that. And then if we get above here, I would like to see them
45 00:04:39 --> 00:04:45 completely ignore this, wick this trade higher, and then reach up into
46 00:04:45 --> 00:04:54 November's high, which is up here, a little bit of a range up there, if we
47 00:04:54 --> 00:05:00 lose this low, then obviously that changes things for the week. But I. I'm
48 00:05:00 --> 00:05:07 focusing on maintaining a bullish stance on stock indices proven wrong by a
49 00:05:07 --> 00:05:11 breakdown, then I'll switch gears. But until then, I'm going to stay with the
50 00:05:11 --> 00:05:15 higher Time Frame narrative being bullish. So 15 minute time frame. You
51 00:05:15 --> 00:05:20 can see there's that volume of Valence here on Wednesday. Draw that out. Side,
52 00:05:20 --> 00:05:25 below there, and hit it beautifully, and then extrapolates to the upside about
53 00:05:25 --> 00:05:32 the vehicle. Highs have been taken there. These are the next set of highs
54 00:05:32 --> 00:05:39 I'm looking for. And this is the new week, opening gap. Upper quadrant,
55 00:05:39 --> 00:05:44 consequence, lower quadrant, low and high respectively. And Monday's trading
56 00:05:44 --> 00:05:49 here breaks lower hits the sell side there, left this cell side, which later
57 00:05:49 --> 00:05:54 came back down. And Wednesday took it traded back up into Costco, encroachment
58 00:05:54 --> 00:05:58 of the new week, opening gap. Let me go back here. First Look, really this. This
59 00:05:58 --> 00:06:02 is appreciate the the precision that this, this concept I shared with you,
60 00:06:03 --> 00:06:07 provides we trade back up to the high. But here, break out of it, hit the sell
61 00:06:07 --> 00:06:11 side, come back up. Consequent encouragement the low, new week, opening
62 00:06:11 --> 00:06:20 gap, upper quadrant, sweep below it. False. Break, breaks higher. Low trades
63 00:06:20 --> 00:06:24 back up upper quadrant. Consequent encroachment, consequent encroachment.
64 00:06:24 --> 00:06:31 Twice trades outside of it to SIDBI. Optimal trade entry sells off, sweeps
65 00:06:31 --> 00:06:35 below the level that constitutes the inversion of everybody. Gap we're
66 00:06:35 --> 00:06:41 looking at now trades back up above volume balance, consequent encroachment
67 00:06:41 --> 00:06:46 of new week opening gap trades outside of it. Cleans up some of this cell side
68 00:06:46 --> 00:06:49 in here, rallies back up high the new week opening gap. Consequent
69 00:06:49 --> 00:06:52 encroachment. Low. Look at the bodies respecting it. Conclude encroachment as
70 00:06:53 --> 00:06:57 well. Breaks lower lower quadrant sinks it to the volume of balance. Cell Size
71 00:06:57 --> 00:07:01 taken, lower quadrant, oh, the inversion, fair value gap. The shaded
72 00:07:01 --> 00:07:06 area orange, that's what this is here, trades up, comes back down into new week
73 00:07:06 --> 00:07:09 opening gap. High. Now we're sitting here, even though it looks a little
74 00:07:09 --> 00:07:15 toppy in here, I'd like to see us try to make an intent to to run aggressively
75 00:07:15 --> 00:07:21 higher, to come back down to new week opening gap. You know, can it do that?
76 00:07:21 --> 00:07:26 Sure. I guess it could. I'd like to see it. Maybe let's do it like this. Say we
77 00:07:26 --> 00:07:35 open with a softer opening on 6pm here, in about 90 minutes or so, if that were
78 00:07:35 --> 00:07:40 to happen, and we open softer, and once we get a gap opening lower, trade down,
79 00:07:40 --> 00:07:45 hit new week opening gap and then trade back above the gap. That's trade by this
80 00:07:45 --> 00:07:49 present new week opening gap that would form if it did that trade above that and
81 00:07:49 --> 00:07:52 then come back down and find some support there and then rally higher.
82 00:07:52 --> 00:07:56 That would be a little bit more favorable idea. I certainly don't want
83 00:07:56 --> 00:07:59 to see it open up here and then start to trade back down the new week opening
84 00:07:59 --> 00:08:05 gap. It's a little bit harder to navigate with that on Monday. So trading
85 00:08:05 --> 00:08:11 on Monday would be optimal for me, if we open trade down, in other words, the gap
86 00:08:11 --> 00:08:14 somewhere in here, trade down to new week opening up, and then go back over
87 00:08:14 --> 00:08:19 top the new week of gap this forming this week, if it were to gap lower than
88 00:08:20 --> 00:08:25 or we close that here. Okay, so we have Non Farm Payroll conditions. So you want
89 00:08:25 --> 00:08:32 to try to focus on your setups on Monday and Tuesday and be done by New York
90 00:08:32 --> 00:08:37 session opening on Wednesday. That's for new traders. That's for folks that are
91 00:08:37 --> 00:08:41 new to my concepts or new to trading, because it just gets a little bit more
92 00:08:41 --> 00:08:47 squirrely or difficult after Wednesday's New York opening. Okay, and that's going
93 00:08:47 --> 00:08:51 to be it for this one. And I'll talk to you guys tomorrow, I'm sure, until then,
94 00:08:51 --> 00:08:51 be safe. You.