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2 |1 |00:01:17 ~-~-> 00:01:18 |ICT: Good morning, Folks, applause.
3 |2 |00:01:23 ~-~-> 00:01:28 |If you guys could give me a heads up on x, let me know you guys can hear
4 |3 |00:01:34 ~-~-> 00:01:35 |me. Audio seems okay on my end, I
5 |4 |00:01:59 ~-~-> 00:02:07 |thank you. Alfonzo, thank you Fran. Thank you Edward. All right, so this
6 |5 |00:02:07 ~-~-> 00:02:12 |morning, we have some medium and high impact news drivers, and I want to kind
7 |6 |00:02:12 ~-~-> 00:02:16 |of like go over that with you live, because I can't be with you this
8 |7 |00:02:16 ~-~-> 00:02:20 |afternoon. I can't be here during the opening bell during the morning session,
9 |8 |00:02:20 ~-~-> 00:02:25 |so I have some things that take care of that was not able to get accomplished
10 |9 |00:02:25 ~-~-> 00:02:29 |last night. So that's the real life getting in the way it's going to happen.
11 |10 |00:02:29 ~-~-> 00:02:39 |So as a consolation, we're going to be looking at the core retail sales, number
12 |11 |00:02:39 ~-~-> 00:02:44 |retail sales, unemployment claims and the medium impact Philly Fed
13 |12 |00:02:44 ~-~-> 00:02:51 |manufacturing index. That's all going to be released this morning at 830 so today
14 |13 |00:02:51 ~-~-> 00:02:59 |is Thursday, October 17. That's on the docket for today. And then for you guys
15 |14 |00:02:59 ~-~-> 00:03:03 |that like to trade crude oil at 11 o'clock today, you'll have the crude oil
16 |15 |00:03:03 ~-~-> 00:03:04 |inventory number.
17 |16 |00:03:10 ~-~-> 00:03:15 |I think that's going to be enough. I'm going to close the stream promptly at
18 |17 |00:03:15 ~-~-> 00:03:20 |nine o'clock, or before if it, if it serves my purpose, but I just want to
19 |18 |00:03:20 ~-~-> 00:03:26 |sit here and take read with you in about 15 minutes or so. When that news hits
20 |19 |00:03:26 ~-~-> 00:03:33 |the market, we'll see what they want to stir up in terms of rents on liquidity
21 |20 |00:03:33 ~-~-> 00:03:34 |or inefficiency.
22 |21 |00:03:41 ~-~-> 00:03:51 |Tomorrow morning at 830 we have building permits, and then we have a speaker
23 |22 |00:03:51 ~-~-> 00:03:58 |later on in that during around those times. So not terribly exciting. Forks,
24 |23 |00:03:58 ~-~-> 00:04:03 |guys, you'll have some real nice volatility on the pound tonight, going
25 |24 |00:04:03 ~-~-> 00:04:09 |into Friday morning session London, 2am Eastern Time, you have retail sales for
26 |25 |00:04:09 ~-~-> 00:04:16 |GPP. Alright, so let's get on with this. Take a look at what we have in terms of
27 |26 |00:04:16 ~-~-> 00:04:23 |liquidity pools and all that stuff. Yes, second I'm
28 |27 |00:05:42 ~-~-> 00:05:47 |Sorry about that. Put you on mute for a second. Scout had a barking fit, and
29 |28 |00:05:48 ~-~-> 00:05:55 |that would have been just uncivilized for today. All right, so we are looking
30 |29 |00:05:55 ~-~-> 00:06:05 |at the NASDAQ, and let's start with a daily chart. Real quick. I'm alright, so
31 |30 |00:06:05 ~-~-> 00:06:10 |here's the business, just we can ignore all this stuff. Here's stuff from
32 |31 |00:06:10 ~-~-> 00:06:18 |yesterday. We do have a really nice sell side still building underneath that buy
33 |32 |00:06:18 ~-~-> 00:06:26 |side is here we have Tuesdays October 15, daily high. I want to annotate,
34 |33 |00:06:26 ~-~-> 00:06:36 |annotate that rather as well, and we'll just Tuesday's. Hi.
35 |34 |00:06:43 ~-~-> 00:06:54 |All right, and we'll trot down into a 60 minute chart, and right away you should
36 |35 |00:06:54 ~-~-> 00:07:02 |see this is this begging for it. So in my mind, it's a little too clean. I like
37 |36 |00:07:02 ~-~-> 00:07:06 |the idea of a potential run up into that it doesn't need to do it today. It may
38 |37 |00:07:06 ~-~-> 00:07:11 |need to do it, you know, overnight tonight, it may need to do it tomorrow.
39 |38 |00:07:12 ~-~-> 00:07:17 |I think that it's reasonable to anticipate them taking it up to those
40 |39 |00:07:18 ~-~-> 00:07:28 |640s at the minimum, and then Tuesday's high 659 and a quarter, and then 680
41 |40 |00:07:29 ~-~-> 00:07:34 |respectively, which would be this high there. So I'm looking at how we made
42 |41 |00:07:34 ~-~-> 00:07:40 |this area down here, which was below these relative equal lows. They made
43 |42 |00:07:40 ~-~-> 00:07:44 |that jagged trading up into the city here the south side of Mount spots on
44 |43 |00:07:44 ~-~-> 00:07:54 |efficiency. And to me, you know, while being in an election year, as I've been
45 |44 |00:07:55 ~-~-> 00:07:59 |basically beating that drum constantly since we started the 2024 mentorship,
46 |45 |00:08:00 ~-~-> 00:08:06 |it's very difficult to try to short this market and hold for a long time. Not
47 |46 |00:08:06 ~-~-> 00:08:10 |that you can't take shorts on intraday, but it's very difficult to hold on to
48 |47 |00:08:10 ~-~-> 00:08:16 |shorts because they keep sending it higher, and it's all artificial. It's
49 |48 |00:08:16 ~-~-> 00:08:20 |all fluffing up, and it's usually it's a presidential year phenomenon, so don't
50 |49 |00:08:20 ~-~-> 00:08:25 |think it's just happening just this year. It's a usual circumstance that
51 |50 |00:08:25 ~-~-> 00:08:32 |tends to repeat itself. So focusing on the buy side is always going to be my
52 |51 |00:08:32 ~-~-> 00:08:36 |first go to so I'm going to be looking for things to justify something that
53 |52 |00:08:36 ~-~-> 00:08:41 |would lend well to a draw up into this area here. So these two respective
54 |53 |00:08:41 ~-~-> 00:08:47 |highs. That's where my initial interest is. Now, obviously, you know, we don't
55 |54 |00:08:47 ~-~-> 00:08:50 |know what they're going to do when the high impact news drivers come out, when
56 |55 |00:08:50 ~-~-> 00:08:56 |these news events come out at 830 they're used as a smoke screen, and
57 |56 |00:08:56 ~-~-> 00:09:03 |sometimes they can aid a run into a an area or a layer of liquidity, like we're
58 |57 |00:09:03 ~-~-> 00:09:08 |outlining here, or as I'm outlining it rather. And then other times it'll be
59 |58 |00:09:08 ~-~-> 00:09:14 |used to drop it down and get everyone thinking that the sentiment is bearish.
60 |59 |00:09:14 ~-~-> 00:09:18 |And then at the opening bell later, at 930 then they make a run for it to get
61 |60 |00:09:18 ~-~-> 00:09:22 |up here. Either scenario, I'm just interested in what they're doing at 830
62 |61 |00:09:23 ~-~-> 00:09:28 |and then I will leave you with closing remarks about how I would expect to see
63 |62 |00:09:28 ~-~-> 00:09:32 |the opening bell and the morning session pan out. In other words, what would be
64 |63 |00:09:32 ~-~-> 00:09:37 |my interests? Okay, so kind of like, I don't leave you like an orphan, you
65 |64 |00:09:37 ~-~-> 00:09:41 |know, figure it out on your own. Even though I can't be here, I'll, kind of
66 |65 |00:09:41 ~-~-> 00:09:44 |like, tip my hand, tell you, if I were here with you, this is what I would look
67 |66 |00:09:44 ~-~-> 00:09:49 |look for. Okay? So it kind of like gives you some study, study notes, if you
68 |67 |00:09:49 ~-~-> 00:09:53 |will, points of reference to to try to tape, read and figure out what you see
69 |68 |00:09:53 ~-~-> 00:09:59 |real time when it occurs. Drop down to a 15 minute time frame, all right? And
70 |69 |00:09:59 ~-~-> 00:10:00 |then. And,
71 |70 |00:10:05 ~-~-> 00:10:09 |yeah, I still like the idea of it when we get up here, because it's two
72 |71 |00:10:09 ~-~-> 00:10:12 |reference points here. We have this high to that high, not this high being lower
73 |72 |00:10:12 ~-~-> 00:10:16 |than that one, and then this high in that high, that high being lower than
74 |73 |00:10:16 ~-~-> 00:10:20 |that one. So we have two nested, relative equal highs. It's just real
75 |74 |00:10:20 ~-~-> 00:10:26 |obvious. And whenever it's like that, it's easy to just side with that as the
76 |75 |00:10:26 ~-~-> 00:10:32 |initial draw, until price proves it's not interested in it. And you would know
77 |76 |00:10:32 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |that obviously, by what we see at 830 when they released the data, that all
78 |77 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:42 |those numbers that come out in those reports, they're already baked in. Okay?
79 |78 |00:10:42 ~-~-> 00:10:46 |Trust me, it's always the case. And trying to figure out what that
80 |79 |00:10:46 ~-~-> 00:10:51 |fundamentally means for the intraday price volatility, it's useless, okay? So
81 |80 |00:10:52 ~-~-> 00:10:56 |it's better just to anticipate the fact that we have a high impact and medium
82 |81 |00:10:56 ~-~-> 00:11:03 |impact, news, events, reports, data coming out, we are never interested in
83 |82 |00:11:03 ~-~-> 00:11:08 |what the data is suggesting that that's that makes it easy, because
84 |83 |00:11:08 ~-~-> 00:11:12 |fundamentally speaking, you're never going to be able to read the tea leaves
85 |84 |00:11:12 ~-~-> 00:11:16 |like that on an intraday basis and be accurate, because there's many times
86 |85 |00:11:16 ~-~-> 00:11:19 |that the data will be suggesting it should be bullish or bearish, and the
87 |86 |00:11:19 ~-~-> 00:11:24 |market does The opposite. And I learned very quickly in the 90s that that wasn't
88 |87 |00:11:24 ~-~-> 00:11:27 |the way of doing it. So I just trust that the price is going to tell me
89 |88 |00:11:27 ~-~-> 00:11:31 |everything I need to know. And if I'm wrong, price will tell me I'm wrong. I
90 |89 |00:11:31 ~-~-> 00:11:35 |don't need to try to figure it out and put my opinion on what fundamental data
91 |90 |00:11:35 ~-~-> 00:11:43 |is suggesting. So again, just we're focusing up here, okay? Or at least
92 |91 |00:11:43 ~-~-> 00:11:47 |that's, that's where my focus is. And then we'll go down to a five minute
93 |92 |00:11:47 ~-~-> 00:11:55 |chart, okay? And I have enough time I can show you what I was doing this
94 |93 |00:11:55 ~-~-> 00:12:00 |morning in London. I had a little bit of a late nap yesterday. And as you all
95 |94 |00:12:00 ~-~-> 00:12:04 |probably know. I've said many times that I don't have a normal sleep schedule
96 |95 |00:12:05 ~-~-> 00:12:10 |because I don't work a job. I don't get stressed out and get tired like the
97 |96 |00:12:10 ~-~-> 00:12:16 |average person does, and like I did when I was younger, I sleep in two stages of
98 |97 |00:12:16 ~-~-> 00:12:20 |like four hours each time. Doesn't always equate the four hours, sometimes
99 |98 |00:12:20 ~-~-> 00:12:28 |maybe four and a half hours. But the the afternoon yesterday, I kind of, like,
100 |99 |00:12:28 ~-~-> 00:12:34 |took my second one a little later than I normally do, and it kind of threw my my
101 |100 |00:12:34 ~-~-> 00:12:40 |pattern off a little bit more. So I woke up at a time during London that's like,
102 |101 |00:12:40 ~-~-> 00:12:44 |well, I don't like getting out of bed, so I'll just look at the market and see
103 |102 |00:12:44 ~-~-> 00:12:52 |if I can play around with that. And lo and behold, alright, so we have the
104 |103 |00:12:52 ~-~-> 00:12:59 |market break about the short term high here, after having a run on liquidity
105 |104 |00:13:00 ~-~-> 00:13:03 |below this low in here, trading back down once more into a delivery to this
106 |105 |00:13:03 ~-~-> 00:13:09 |volume of balance rallies up. That means the breakout hours are going to be long
107 |106 |00:13:09 ~-~-> 00:13:14 |above this high. I like seeing that in the London session. I love seeing false
108 |107 |00:13:14 ~-~-> 00:13:18 |breaks, where a breakout trader would get in long or short, because the
109 |108 |00:13:18 ~-~-> 00:13:22 |market's predisposed to go higher, because it's an election year, this
110 |109 |00:13:22 ~-~-> 00:13:26 |high, they would have went long. They ran down, stopped them out. That's a
111 |110 |00:13:26 ~-~-> 00:13:32 |beautiful setup, because now what did they do? They took the market higher,
112 |111 |00:13:32 ~-~-> 00:13:37 |putting traders in long, ripping their guts out, removing their head cleanly
113 |112 |00:13:37 ~-~-> 00:13:41 |from their shoulders. And then what I'm going to wait for is I want to see, does
114 |113 |00:13:41 ~-~-> 00:13:49 |the market give me an opportunity to get in when the price is dropping and it's
115 |114 |00:13:49 ~-~-> 00:13:55 |going into an obvious discount array? We have this imbalance here, after clearing
116 |115 |00:13:55 ~-~-> 00:14:00 |this high, all of this consolidation here. This is kind of like a um,
117 |116 |00:14:03 ~-~-> 00:14:08 |resembling much like a first stage accumulation. So looking at it like
118 |117 |00:14:08 ~-~-> 00:14:11 |that, we trade down into the fair value gap, always including the volume
119 |118 |00:14:11 ~-~-> 00:14:14 |imbalance. Sometimes, when I'm doing the live streams, folks, I know someone here
120 |119 |00:14:14 ~-~-> 00:14:20 |leaving comments saying, sometimes I won't include the volume imbalance. I'm
121 |120 |00:14:20 ~-~-> 00:14:24 |52 years old, and I'm not trying to use as an excuse, but my eyes are not as
122 |121 |00:14:24 ~-~-> 00:14:28 |good as they used to be. And because I'm looking at very, very short term time
123 |122 |00:14:28 ~-~-> 00:14:35 |frame charts, I'm more I'm more keyed up on the price axis over here than the
124 |123 |00:14:35 ~-~-> 00:14:39 |candlesticks. So when I'm drawing the the boxes on the charts, draw your
125 |124 |00:14:39 ~-~-> 00:14:43 |attention to it. Sometimes it doesn't drop on to the actual candlestick like
126 |125 |00:14:43 ~-~-> 00:14:48 |it does here perfectly and does here perfectly because I'm trying to annotate
127 |126 |00:14:48 ~-~-> 00:14:53 |it and still keep my train of thought. It may not fall on the volume imbalance,
128 |127 |00:14:53 ~-~-> 00:14:57 |and it's not me doing it incorrectly for the purpose of being troublesome for
129 |128 |00:14:57 ~-~-> 00:15:01 |you. It's just I'm trying to juggle all these. Things real time and still be
130 |129 |00:15:01 ~-~-> 00:15:07 |able to talk about and also read it real time. So it's, it's not easy to do this,
131 |130 |00:15:07 ~-~-> 00:15:11 |okay? And it's sometimes I won't have that box highlighting with the volume
132 |131 |00:15:11 ~-~-> 00:15:15 |imbalance, but you should always have it annotated like that. Okay, so anyway,
133 |132 |00:15:15 ~-~-> 00:15:19 |the market drops down into the fair value gap here, which is the buy side of
134 |133 |00:15:19 ~-~-> 00:15:23 |balance, outside of efficiency, with the markets likely to go higher, we're
135 |134 |00:15:23 ~-~-> 00:15:31 |approaching the 450, to 510, macro, and I'm accumulating an early position,
136 |135 |00:15:31 ~-~-> 00:15:35 |anticipating that this volume and balance into this area, anywhere in that
137 |136 |00:15:35 ~-~-> 00:15:39 |price range, between this volume of balance, which is actually drawn
138 |137 |00:15:39 ~-~-> 00:15:46 |incorrectly there, and then right there is my fill. It went down. And then once
139 |138 |00:15:46 ~-~-> 00:15:49 |it went back into the volume balance, you can see my fill. It's right there,
140 |139 |00:15:51 ~-~-> 00:15:54 |okay. And then we have a breakaway gap. That's why I shaded it in that little
141 |140 |00:15:54 ~-~-> 00:15:59 |recorded video yellow, because I wanted to see it stay open. Any other time you
142 |141 |00:15:59 ~-~-> 00:16:04 |would see a green or blue. That's bullish. And then I entered here on a
143 |142 |00:16:04 ~-~-> 00:16:08 |retracement back down into this order block. That means this is what this is a
144 |143 |00:16:08 ~-~-> 00:16:12 |propulsion block. And then right again, it trades back into the propulsion
145 |144 |00:16:12 ~-~-> 00:16:17 |block. If you look at the month four content, 2016 I shared that link also on
146 |145 |00:16:17 ~-~-> 00:16:22 |x this morning, but month four's content of 2016 mentorship. It's on my YouTube
147 |146 |00:16:22 ~-~-> 00:16:28 |playlist. I teach you the propulsion block. Propulsion blocks can be traded
148 |147 |00:16:28 ~-~-> 00:16:32 |to again, as it does here, and I'm entering it as it's trying to go down
149 |148 |00:16:32 ~-~-> 00:16:43 |into it. I'm hitting it there and there, and then exiting out right up there. And
150 |149 |00:16:43 ~-~-> 00:16:47 |then ultimately, it rolls back down and comes back for my initial entry, which
151 |150 |00:16:48 ~-~-> 00:16:54 |Phil was coming back for any of you guys that won the hole for longer, all right,
152 |151 |00:16:54 ~-~-> 00:16:58 |so I got a couple more seconds I can talk a little bit about this. Um, how
153 |152 |00:16:58 ~-~-> 00:17:02 |did I get this exit? Where did that come from? Well, if you take it the FIB,
154 |153 |00:17:05 ~-~-> 00:17:13 |place it on this price, run here. Here's my fib setting so you guys can
155 |154 |00:17:13 ~-~-> 00:17:20 |screenshot that, and I'm a
156 |155 |00:17:25 ~-~-> 00:17:34 |negative 1.25 that's what I'm aiming for, okay, and then it rolls over and
157 |156 |00:17:34 ~-~-> 00:17:37 |comes back down. The quarters is when there's going to be another retracement
158 |157 |00:17:37 ~-~-> 00:17:41 |back, and it'll all be in the book. So I know you're all looking for ways to get
159 |158 |00:17:41 ~-~-> 00:17:45 |a constant setting and what I use, what settings for. It's too good for public
160 |159 |00:17:45 ~-~-> 00:17:48 |consumption right now, because everybody's trying to make mentorships
161 |160 |00:17:48 ~-~-> 00:17:52 |and write books before mine. And I'm not going to give you your your your source
162 |161 |00:17:52 ~-~-> 00:17:58 |material. That's mine, and once I put it in form, written form, then and y'all
163 |162 |00:17:58 ~-~-> 00:18:07 |will be going in there plagiarizing it all right? So we have about 30 seconds
164 |163 |00:18:07 ~-~-> 00:18:14 |or so and going to see what we see here. There's sell side here. We've already
165 |164 |00:18:14 ~-~-> 00:18:23 |disturbed this. We have a little bit of ways before we get up to those levels up
166 |165 |00:18:23 ~-~-> 00:18:30 |there, but we could certainly make some ground at 15 seconds or so. But I'd like
167 |166 |00:18:30 ~-~-> 00:18:37 |to see them first take the sell side out here, mess this up a little bit, holding
168 |167 |00:18:37 ~-~-> 00:18:41 |a bias to the bullish side, but loosely because, you know, I'm I'm more inclined
169 |168 |00:18:41 ~-~-> 00:18:49 |to anticipate what it's going to do going into the opening bell at 930 All
170 |169 |00:18:49 ~-~-> 00:18:57 |right? And because there's multiple reports coming out, there's always like
171 |170 |00:18:57 ~-~-> 00:19:05 |this staggered initial rally or decline, and it feels like it's done. It's not.
172 |171 |00:19:05 ~-~-> 00:19:10 |You got to give a couple seconds and it'll be like a another impulse, another
173 |172 |00:19:10 ~-~-> 00:19:16 |impulse. When it's one report like medium impact or high impact news driver
174 |173 |00:19:16 ~-~-> 00:19:23 |hit 830 usually it's the first run that is your due to swing, but because we
175 |174 |00:19:23 ~-~-> 00:19:27 |have multiple reports at 830 give it a chance to take both sides of the
176 |175 |00:19:27 ~-~-> 00:19:28 |marketplace,
177 |176 |00:19:37 ~-~-> 00:19:43 |all I'm doing is annotating. That's where the close, near term or short term
178 |177 |00:19:43 ~-~-> 00:19:55 |buy side is, and the sell side is there. And if it goes below here, notice this
179 |178 |00:19:55 ~-~-> 00:19:56 |low here as well. I.
180 |179 |00:20:02 ~-~-> 00:20:06 |I'm not interested. I don't care about that. I like this here because that's
181 |180 |00:20:06 ~-~-> 00:20:13 |just like a like a mohawk. And below these lows, we have this imbalance here,
182 |181 |00:20:16 ~-~-> 00:20:21 |and we have all these candles here that are indecisive. So whenever it's like
183 |182 |00:20:21 ~-~-> 00:20:26 |this, this is actually a good one to talk about, something you've never
184 |183 |00:20:26 ~-~-> 00:20:30 |learned about. We have a volume of it, I'm sorry. We have a fair value gap, and
185 |184 |00:20:30 ~-~-> 00:20:39 |then we have two indecisive candles. Notice that. So you would think that
186 |185 |00:20:39 ~-~-> 00:20:45 |this would be how you would frame that imbalance. So if we go below the lows
187 |186 |00:20:45 ~-~-> 00:20:49 |here, you know, where could it trade too. You might look at something like
188 |187 |00:20:49 ~-~-> 00:20:56 |that. And by in and of itself, it's not technically wrong, but it's not as
189 |188 |00:20:56 ~-~-> 00:21:02 |accurate as it needs to be. So the way you would do that is your lowest open
190 |189 |00:21:02 ~-~-> 00:21:05 |and close, which is the same on this candlestick. It's also the low of the
191 |190 |00:21:05 ~-~-> 00:21:12 |volume of Valence here. See that you gotta cover over top of this and this
192 |191 |00:21:12 ~-~-> 00:21:16 |entirely, and take it all the way down here like that. That would be your
193 |192 |00:21:16 ~-~-> 00:21:20 |inefficiency. So if it goes below here, that's how I would use it. And then you
194 |193 |00:21:20 ~-~-> 00:21:26 |can use consequent encouragement of that. And the reason why I told you that
195 |194 |00:21:26 ~-~-> 00:21:30 |is because, if there's any inefficiencies, like volume imbalances
196 |195 |00:21:30 ~-~-> 00:21:33 |or indecisive candles, where the bodies are just the open and close the same
197 |196 |00:21:33 ~-~-> 00:21:39 |price, you gotta use the lowest one. And it's it's better for you to do that,
198 |197 |00:21:39 ~-~-> 00:21:45 |because there's so many reasons for it to drop down into these blame imbalances
199 |198 |00:21:45 ~-~-> 00:21:50 |in and of itself, and it would just overshoot the typical standard fair
200 |199 |00:21:50 ~-~-> 00:21:55 |value gap that you would would have assumed that would be likely to be used.
201 |200 |00:21:55 ~-~-> 00:22:05 |I like how he left back here too. See that now, let's play devil's advocate
202 |201 |00:22:05 ~-~-> 00:22:11 |for a moment. Okay, let's assume for a moment that between now and nine o'clock
203 |202 |00:22:12 ~-~-> 00:22:17 |before I escape, okay, let's say we don't make a significant higher high
204 |203 |00:22:17 ~-~-> 00:22:21 |here. Now it can come up and just poke that and come back down into the range,
205 |204 |00:22:21 ~-~-> 00:22:25 |chop around a little bit, and then jump down here. And then, if it does that,
206 |205 |00:22:25 ~-~-> 00:22:32 |then I would expect 930, to 10 o'clock to give some kind of movement higher,
207 |206 |00:22:32 ~-~-> 00:22:36 |displace higher. And then start looking for discount arrays like bull shorter
208 |207 |00:22:36 ~-~-> 00:22:41 |blocks, fair value gaps, the support price not trade completely. Closing the
209 |208 |00:22:41 ~-~-> 00:22:45 |low of it. Look for short term lows to be swept and then rally higher. That
210 |209 |00:22:45 ~-~-> 00:22:52 |would be what I would expect if it does that very thing trading down here. But
211 |210 |00:22:54 ~-~-> 00:22:59 |if we keep this high and we just bang around in here and don't do this drop
212 |211 |00:22:59 ~-~-> 00:23:04 |down here, yet, I would look for the Judah swing at 930 into 945, ish,
213 |212 |00:23:04 ~-~-> 00:23:09 |something like that, drop down into that and then send price higher, taking out
214 |213 |00:23:09 ~-~-> 00:23:14 |this high, and then accelerating and working towards that objective up there.
215 |214 |00:23:15 ~-~-> 00:23:22 |So 20,006 59 Tuesday's high. I just, I feel like that. That is it's warranted,
216 |215 |00:23:23 ~-~-> 00:23:27 |and it keeps you from, and it keeps me, specifically, from trying to pick the
217 |216 |00:23:27 ~-~-> 00:23:33 |tops in the market, which is really important if you do all your work about
218 |217 |00:23:34 ~-~-> 00:23:38 |trying to avoid the biggest mistakes. And it's always going to be the case by
219 |218 |00:23:38 ~-~-> 00:23:43 |trying to pick tops and bottoms, it's easy to pick the lows or the bottoms in
220 |219 |00:23:43 ~-~-> 00:23:48 |bull markets. It's real easy to do that, but it's really difficult to try to pick
221 |220 |00:23:48 ~-~-> 00:23:54 |tops in a bull market. And when you're in a market that's like we have, where
222 |221 |00:23:54 ~-~-> 00:23:57 |it's an election year, there's a whole lot of corruption and a lot of things
223 |222 |00:23:57 ~-~-> 00:24:07 |going on with, I mean, say corruption, or did I manipulation in the marketplace
224 |223 |00:24:07 ~-~-> 00:24:13 |as as a result of the election year? Watching this volume imbalance in here.
225 |224 |00:24:15 ~-~-> 00:24:21 |Now, if you didn't have this big run here, take that out of that equation,
226 |225 |00:24:21 ~-~-> 00:24:29 |what would you see, relative equal highs, right? So this first pass up
227 |226 |00:24:29 ~-~-> 00:24:33 |here, I would completely ignore that, even though that that's where near term
228 |227 |00:24:33 ~-~-> 00:24:38 |buy side is resting. I'm watching these two relative equal highs. I'm ignoring
229 |228 |00:24:38 ~-~-> 00:24:44 |this for the sake of look, you know the liquidity on these two highs. Obviously,
230 |229 |00:24:44 ~-~-> 00:24:49 |if it goes above there, it could revisit this high. That's that's not, I'm not
231 |230 |00:24:49 ~-~-> 00:24:53 |making case against that. I'm the saying that my eyes jump into the fact that
232 |231 |00:24:53 ~-~-> 00:25:03 |these two highs are basically identical. I. So what could happen is say they're
233 |232 |00:25:03 ~-~-> 00:25:07 |going to hold the market and keep it from going higher until we get into the
234 |233 |00:25:07 ~-~-> 00:25:10 |opening range and or later in the morning session, or maybe even the
235 |234 |00:25:10 ~-~-> 00:25:15 |afternoon. If it goes above these relative eco highs, it can go up to
236 |235 |00:25:15 ~-~-> 00:25:19 |consequent crochet of the range between these relative equal highs to that high,
237 |236 |00:25:19 ~-~-> 00:25:24 |so about halfway there and leave that high intact, and then roll down, take
238 |237 |00:25:24 ~-~-> 00:25:27 |out these relative equal lows, take out these relative equal lows, trade into
239 |238 |00:25:27 ~-~-> 00:25:32 |the inefficiency, and then how it would trade down into that. That would be
240 |239 |00:25:32 ~-~-> 00:25:36 |indicative of what I would expect to see happening in the nine o'clock opening
241 |240 |00:25:36 ~-~-> 00:25:40 |belt, assuming that it doesn't break lower and just keep falling out, you
242 |241 |00:25:40 ~-~-> 00:25:51 |know, pulling off the the cliff, if you will. So these high impact news drivers
243 |242 |00:25:51 ~-~-> 00:25:55 |didn't do very much, and you can see the market hasn't had a lot of range
244 |243 |00:25:55 ~-~-> 00:26:00 |delivered. It's kind of reserved. Actually. I Yeah,
245 |244 |00:26:10 ~-~-> 00:26:14 |nothing in here that I'd want to be buying. So if it does take off, it would
246 |245 |00:26:14 ~-~-> 00:26:18 |be one of those instances where, okay, it left without me. It's fine, just like
247 |246 |00:26:18 ~-~-> 00:26:22 |you saw yesterday with the first percent of fair value gap. You know, it didn't
248 |247 |00:26:22 ~-~-> 00:26:25 |give us an entry to get short, even though that that would have been the
249 |248 |00:26:25 ~-~-> 00:26:32 |play sell side was the objective, and because it didn't offer an entry, that
250 |249 |00:26:32 ~-~-> 00:26:38 |that's fine, we're just going to use it as a target later on. And I did, did not
251 |250 |00:26:38 ~-~-> 00:26:44 |forget to do the video with my son last night. I just didn't have the
252 |251 |00:26:44 ~-~-> 00:26:49 |opportunity to get to it. So I'll have to find a way to get to that this this
253 |252 |00:26:49 ~-~-> 00:26:50 |afternoon or evening.
254 |253 |00:27:01 ~-~-> 00:27:08 |So normally I would like to have something on in a position ahead of the
255 |254 |00:27:08 ~-~-> 00:27:13 |930 opening bell on a high impact or medium impact news driver day, but I
256 |255 |00:27:13 ~-~-> 00:27:19 |have nothing in here that I would have entered on. So it's kind of like To sit
257 |256 |00:27:19 ~-~-> 00:27:20 |and be still. I
258 |257 |00:27:40 ~-~-> 00:27:42 |that's the
259 |258 |00:27:55 ~-~-> 00:27:58 |consequent encroachment level I was telling you between the relative equal
260 |259 |00:27:58 ~-~-> 00:28:02 |highs to that high I'm watching that you can already see they're working that
261 |260 |00:28:02 ~-~-> 00:28:10 |level. Steve Nielsen probably has that in his book somewhere, right? He doesn't
262 |261 |00:28:10 ~-~-> 00:28:19 |spoiler. I would like for it to stay below this, this high. Admittedly,
263 |262 |00:28:19 ~-~-> 00:28:24 |that's what I would prefer. And I'd like to see it come back down and disrupt
264 |263 |00:28:24 ~-~-> 00:28:28 |this or disrupt that, and make make an attempt to get in here. That would be
265 |264 |00:28:28 ~-~-> 00:28:32 |ideal, because that would be something that would set the stage for me to
266 |265 |00:28:32 ~-~-> 00:28:37 |really be bullish this morning. But I wouldn't be interested in chasing it in
267 |266 |00:28:37 ~-~-> 00:28:43 |here. And if it was a rally, it's okay, it can run. It can run without me, and
268 |267 |00:28:43 ~-~-> 00:28:53 |it's okay. I'll catch the next bus stop. I was hoping to do a little bit more, no
269 |268 |00:28:53 ~-~-> 00:29:02 |more. Get up and go this morning at the 830 Bell, just didn't, didn't give it.
270 |269 |00:29:04 ~-~-> 00:29:09 |But that's good. I mean, we should have a reasonable morning session. It should,
271 |270 |00:29:10 ~-~-> 00:29:13 |it should deliver nice price action. Should be nice. It's put that way
272 |271 |00:29:14 ~-~-> 00:29:21 |because it didn't give it to us at the 830 news driver. It's still kind of like
273 |272 |00:29:21 ~-~-> 00:29:26 |trying to figure out what it wants to do. It's do, and because of how price is
274 |273 |00:29:26 ~-~-> 00:29:31 |being delivered, see how spotty it is. We got a lot of wicks in here. We have
275 |274 |00:29:31 ~-~-> 00:29:38 |volume imbalances. And it's not making a higher high, it hasn't made a lower low.
276 |275 |00:29:38 ~-~-> 00:29:44 |It's just maintained the initial range that was created at 830 so this low
277 |276 |00:29:44 ~-~-> 00:29:51 |didn't get taken. This high hasn't been broken since it's been posted. So we're
278 |277 |00:29:51 ~-~-> 00:29:53 |kind of like held in a holding pattern. So.
279 |278 |00:30:01 ~-~-> 00:30:06 |Uh, which means the hands in there. Basically the algorithm is not doing
280 |279 |00:30:06 ~-~-> 00:30:13 |anything here. It's just they're in there stirring the pot. Whenever you
281 |280 |00:30:13 ~-~-> 00:30:18 |notice those types of things, sit, sit still. Don't do anything because you're
282 |281 |00:30:18 ~-~-> 00:30:26 |competing against an individual that literally has the control to take both
283 |282 |00:30:26 ~-~-> 00:30:30 |sides of the marketplace and still go nowhere, but it'll look like you're in
284 |283 |00:30:30 ~-~-> 00:30:35 |there, taking a very valid long or a very valid short, and then it just
285 |284 |00:30:35 ~-~-> 00:30:38 |evaporates once you get in there, you're you turn over the controls and
286 |285 |00:30:38 ~-~-> 00:30:48 |relinquish your you know power of stillness by entering the marketplace,
287 |286 |00:30:48 ~-~-> 00:30:52 |and now you have no control over the outcome, and you're at the mercy of
288 |287 |00:30:52 ~-~-> 00:30:57 |where the market's going to go and when it's like this right now, there is
289 |288 |00:30:57 ~-~-> 00:31:02 |manual intervention, because there's no cleanness. There's no cleanness to the
290 |289 |00:31:02 ~-~-> 00:31:09 |marketplace. It's being held in a range. And because of that, you sit still.
291 |290 |00:31:10 ~-~-> 00:31:16 |Don't touch it. Observe tape, read it. This is what you're doing before you
292 |291 |00:31:16 ~-~-> 00:31:20 |learn. Even trade with a demo account before you're pushing the buttons with
293 |292 |00:31:20 ~-~-> 00:31:24 |the paper trading account. You're in here studying what you're feeling, how
294 |293 |00:31:24 ~-~-> 00:31:29 |you are proceeding price action, and then you're also looking for the things
295 |294 |00:31:29 ~-~-> 00:31:33 |I'm teaching you in this mentorship here this year, where you're looking for
296 |295 |00:31:34 ~-~-> 00:31:39 |signatures to support or negate the idea that the algorithm is running, running
297 |296 |00:31:39 ~-~-> 00:31:45 |on script, or is it being screwed up by manual intervention? That means the
298 |297 |00:31:45 ~-~-> 00:31:51 |actual market maker is in there doing it manually. They're repricing, sending it
299 |298 |00:31:51 ~-~-> 00:31:55 |to different price levels, but they're still going to follow like an MO, okay,
300 |299 |00:31:56 ~-~-> 00:32:01 |and that that's the that's the benefit of learning from me, having that
301 |300 |00:32:01 ~-~-> 00:32:04 |information that you can't get in books, and nobody else is going to teach it to
302 |301 |00:32:04 ~-~-> 00:32:09 |you because they don't know it. Perfect example, and you probably weren't
303 |302 |00:32:09 ~-~-> 00:32:17 |looking at that wick when I was telling you disregard it, even though we have to
304 |303 |00:32:17 ~-~-> 00:32:23 |define that for near term, minor buy side, because that's the high at 830 I
305 |304 |00:32:23 ~-~-> 00:32:27 |took your eyes to that high, in that high, and said, ignore this for a
306 |305 |00:32:27 ~-~-> 00:32:31 |moment. These are your relative equal highs. So I would like to see it trade
307 |306 |00:32:31 ~-~-> 00:32:35 |up above that and use consequence encroachment of the portion between
308 |307 |00:32:35 ~-~-> 00:32:40 |these relative equal highs to that high. And look what it did. You see that
309 |308 |00:32:42 ~-~-> 00:32:48 |that's probably time travel. You know, there's no other explanation for it. I
310 |309 |00:32:48 ~-~-> 00:32:52 |had to be from the future to see that. You can see the bodies. Are they
311 |310 |00:32:52 ~-~-> 00:32:56 |respecting that level? The wicks are being tossed above it. Remember that
312 |311 |00:32:56 ~-~-> 00:33:00 |analogy I used yesterday, like horseshoes, you're tossing orders in
313 |312 |00:33:00 ~-~-> 00:33:07 |these general areas, but the bodies are saying, yeah, so are they trading to
314 |313 |00:33:07 ~-~-> 00:33:11 |that constant encroachment of the relative equal highs to here, the wicks
315 |314 |00:33:11 ~-~-> 00:33:17 |are but the candlestick bodies are stopping. You see that? So I said I'd
316 |315 |00:33:17 ~-~-> 00:33:20 |like to see it do this very thing here, trade back down into and disrupt the
317 |316 |00:33:20 ~-~-> 00:33:24 |lows here and the lows here and see if we can get down into that imbalance
318 |317 |00:33:24 ~-~-> 00:33:29 |here. That's what I wanted to see, and I would not be interested in being long.
319 |318 |00:33:29 ~-~-> 00:33:32 |So again, for the assets that led to watch my stream and then go on other
320 |319 |00:33:32 ~-~-> 00:33:37 |people's channels and comment, yeah, ICT was long. He was looking for longs. No,
321 |320 |00:33:38 ~-~-> 00:33:43 |no, you got to take this stuff with context, sprinkle it with common sense
322 |321 |00:33:43 ~-~-> 00:33:46 |too. Most of these assets don't have that, so we have this volume of balance
323 |322 |00:33:46 ~-~-> 00:33:53 |too. Want to see it dig down into that just like that. Now it should accelerate
324 |323 |00:33:54 ~-~-> 00:33:59 |and run below these lows here, and if it does, if accelerates below these lows,
325 |324 |00:33:59 ~-~-> 00:34:03 |it'd be reason for it to try to make an attempt to clean up all this area here
326 |325 |00:34:03 ~-~-> 00:34:08 |and then maybe deliver to this inefficiency I have shaded in blue, I
327 |326 |00:34:08 ~-~-> 00:34:18 |would not be interested in being long. Yet it's still working out the the the
328 |327 |00:34:18 ~-~-> 00:34:19 |intervention is called that I
329 |328 |00:34:24 ~-~-> 00:34:29 |so on your charts, what you want to do is you want to annotate the volume
330 |329 |00:34:29 ~-~-> 00:34:29 |imbalances
331 |330 |00:34:39 ~-~-> 00:34:44 |inside that range, which is the 830 delivery when the reports came out, all
332 |331 |00:34:44 ~-~-> 00:34:48 |the volume imbalances you want to extend them over to the right. And as long as
333 |332 |00:34:48 ~-~-> 00:34:51 |we're inside this range, keep referring back to them.
334 |333 |00:34:56 ~-~-> 00:35:03 |Remember that the volume imbalance is the the. Uh, the most flexible PD array
335 |334 |00:35:03 ~-~-> 00:35:07 |I have, meaning that it's normal for it to go through it, back and forth through
336 |335 |00:35:07 ~-~-> 00:35:11 |it. And what will happen is, is, if it's going through it, I'll give you some
337 |336 |00:35:11 ~-~-> 00:35:16 |notes for for volume imbalance, if it's going through the volume imbalance,
338 |337 |00:35:16 ~-~-> 00:35:20 |which is the first expectation to have for it, because just because it's there
339 |338 |00:35:20 ~-~-> 00:35:23 |doesn't mean it's going to stop price to the tick it can, but you have to have
340 |339 |00:35:23 ~-~-> 00:35:27 |context around it. So what I like to see is, I want to see them trade through
341 |340 |00:35:27 ~-~-> 00:35:31 |them, so it's going to lay a body down over top of it. So in this volume
342 |341 |00:35:31 ~-~-> 00:35:37 |imbalance here, we've seen a body laid down and they buried a bullish body in
343 |342 |00:35:37 ~-~-> 00:35:42 |that volume of balance there on that candlestick, and then they like and
344 |343 |00:35:42 ~-~-> 00:35:47 |buried a body with cell side deliver it means it's a down close candle. So we
345 |344 |00:35:47 ~-~-> 00:35:54 |have an up close candle. We widen up a little bit. This candlestick is up going
346 |345 |00:35:54 ~-~-> 00:35:58 |through the range between this candlesticks close and this candlesticks
347 |346 |00:35:58 ~-~-> 00:36:03 |open. That's the volume imbalance there. So it's been offered, what buy side? And
348 |347 |00:36:03 ~-~-> 00:36:08 |then we see this candlestick here lay over top of that volume of balance right
349 |348 |00:36:08 ~-~-> 00:36:13 |there. Then it's sell side delivery. So when you see that, it becomes
350 |349 |00:36:13 ~-~-> 00:36:19 |efficiently delivered. And then what I do is I treat that as a balanced price
351 |350 |00:36:19 ~-~-> 00:36:26 |range, but because it's such a small, insignificant amount of price data, I
352 |351 |00:36:26 ~-~-> 00:36:31 |don't, I don't hold everything on the basis of it, creating this up candle
353 |352 |00:36:31 ~-~-> 00:36:36 |over top of it, and down candle over top of it. And now, when we were already
354 |353 |00:36:36 ~-~-> 00:36:41 |seeing the the consequent crochet had already started this snap down lower. It
355 |354 |00:36:41 ~-~-> 00:36:43 |doesn't mean it's going to keep dropping. It doesn't mean it can't go
356 |355 |00:36:43 ~-~-> 00:36:47 |back above it and use a support and rally. But I'm looking for those types
357 |356 |00:36:47 ~-~-> 00:36:51 |of signatures when I'm watching price. So a lot of times when I'm talking to
358 |357 |00:36:51 ~-~-> 00:36:56 |you, my attention is looking at these volume imbalances or the PD arrays, and
359 |358 |00:36:56 ~-~-> 00:37:00 |I'm waiting to see if the signatures that I'd like to see with them are
360 |359 |00:37:00 ~-~-> 00:37:08 |manifesting, and I can see that and talk at the same time. But the the value of
361 |360 |00:37:08 ~-~-> 00:37:12 |the volume balance is you want to see how they trade through it. In this case,
362 |361 |00:37:12 ~-~-> 00:37:16 |when it was created between these two candlesticks bodies, there it offered
363 |362 |00:37:16 ~-~-> 00:37:21 |buy side. So what is it lacking? Sell side, delivery. That's over here. So
364 |363 |00:37:21 ~-~-> 00:37:26 |now, because we have that this volume imbalance is much more meaningful
365 |364 |00:37:26 ~-~-> 00:37:32 |because it has done that, because it's offered both the buy side and the sell
366 |365 |00:37:32 ~-~-> 00:37:35 |side delivery. So it's kind of like that paint roller analogy. Remember how I
367 |366 |00:37:35 ~-~-> 00:37:39 |talk about how if you had a paint roller and you you apply the paint and you
368 |367 |00:37:39 ~-~-> 00:37:43 |press that roller against the wall. As soon as you start pressing that roller
369 |368 |00:37:43 ~-~-> 00:37:47 |up or down, the first foot or so of paint delivery on the wall is going to
370 |369 |00:37:47 ~-~-> 00:37:51 |be ample. It's going to be significant and sufficient. There won't be any
371 |370 |00:37:51 ~-~-> 00:37:56 |little pockets where the paint didn't distribute well to the wall, until you
372 |371 |00:37:56 ~-~-> 00:37:59 |get to a point where you start running out of that paint, and then you'll start
373 |372 |00:37:59 ~-~-> 00:38:05 |seeing little pockets where the fabric of the roller doesn't contain enough
374 |373 |00:38:05 ~-~-> 00:38:09 |paint to distribute it to the wall surface. So what do you have to do? Roll
375 |374 |00:38:09 ~-~-> 00:38:14 |the other direction, roll right back over top of it and deliver paint in
376 |375 |00:38:14 ~-~-> 00:38:18 |those little pockets. Well, that's exactly what price is doing inside the
377 |376 |00:38:18 ~-~-> 00:38:24 |volume imbalance. It's delivering price up first, and then it delivers it down
378 |377 |00:38:24 ~-~-> 00:38:29 |here. So now we went back above it here. So now this would be more helpful to me
379 |378 |00:38:30 ~-~-> 00:38:34 |to see it not allow price to go back down below. It doesn't mean it can't do
380 |379 |00:38:34 ~-~-> 00:38:38 |it. Remember, this is the most flexible PD array, and you have to have that
381 |380 |00:38:38 ~-~-> 00:38:44 |flexibility. You can't demand the same degree of precision that a fair value
382 |381 |00:38:44 ~-~-> 00:38:51 |gap that's bullish, the consequence to it, or the height of it, that that level
383 |382 |00:38:51 ~-~-> 00:38:55 |of precision that would be afforded to you there, it doesn't carry the same
384 |383 |00:38:55 ~-~-> 00:38:59 |weight that you would expect with a volume amounts, they still can travel
385 |384 |00:38:59 ~-~-> 00:39:03 |through them and Come back up and then resume. What would cause that to happen?
386 |385 |00:39:04 ~-~-> 00:39:11 |The time aspect, the macro. So when we're when I'm using my volume
387 |386 |00:39:11 ~-~-> 00:39:15 |imbalances, I many times will side with my buy what? Basically what I did in
388 |387 |00:39:15 ~-~-> 00:39:20 |London, I knew I was looking to go long. I'll use the volume imbalances to start
389 |388 |00:39:20 ~-~-> 00:39:26 |positioning. And then once the positioning is afforded to me, when the
390 |389 |00:39:26 ~-~-> 00:39:29 |time aspect kicks in, then I'm really going to be looking for the price to
391 |390 |00:39:29 ~-~-> 00:39:35 |start displacing and spooling in the direction of my target. So I can then
392 |391 |00:39:35 ~-~-> 00:39:39 |use the volume and balance again as a new entry, or I can use it as a means of
393 |392 |00:39:40 ~-~-> 00:39:45 |managing my stop loss, but there's, there's a little bit of management
394 |393 |00:39:45 ~-~-> 00:39:48 |that's required when using the volume balance. I mean, I've seen a lot of
395 |394 |00:39:48 ~-~-> 00:39:51 |people talk about them in their on their videos, and I'm never going to go into
396 |395 |00:39:51 ~-~-> 00:39:56 |your channel and troll you. Okay, some people that sell stuff, I will. I've
397 |396 |00:39:56 ~-~-> 00:39:59 |done that before, but they, they either delete my comment or they ban me. So.
398 |397 |00:40:00 ~-~-> 00:40:03 |Can't be seen, but they're teaching it improperly.
399 |398 |00:40:18 ~-~-> 00:40:31 |We're inside the 850 macro now the liquidity here is minor buy side. Now
400 |399 |00:40:31 ~-~-> 00:40:34 |look at the difference between this volume and balance that we've been
401 |400 |00:40:34 ~-~-> 00:40:40 |talking about, where we had initial buy side delivery, sell side delivery.
402 |401 |00:40:40 ~-~-> 00:40:44 |That's not liquidity, okay. It just means that the Mark has been offered on
403 |402 |00:40:44 ~-~-> 00:40:50 |the up and then on the on the downside, between these two candlesticks bodies.
404 |403 |00:40:51 ~-~-> 00:40:55 |So think about that paint analogy, rolling the paint roller up and then
405 |404 |00:40:55 ~-~-> 00:40:58 |rolling the paint roller down inside that blue shaded area. And then we use
406 |405 |00:40:58 ~-~-> 00:41:02 |the consequent encroachment here, and then finally it drove through it. So now
407 |406 |00:41:02 ~-~-> 00:41:09 |this is much more significant as a what a balanced price range on the basis of a
408 |407 |00:41:09 ~-~-> 00:41:13 |discount array, not a premium array, meaning that if it would have came back
409 |408 |00:41:13 ~-~-> 00:41:18 |down and touched it, we treat it like a support level, basically because it's
410 |409 |00:41:18 ~-~-> 00:41:23 |done the efficient delivery between both. And then we left it, okay, we left
411 |410 |00:41:23 ~-~-> 00:41:29 |it right there, and at any time back to it. It would act as a discount, a send
412 |411 |00:41:29 ~-~-> 00:41:33 |prices higher or support price, and then say you were long in here or long over
413 |412 |00:41:33 ~-~-> 00:41:37 |here, then you could roll your stop loss rate below that volume of balance,
414 |413 |00:41:37 ~-~-> 00:41:41 |because it's done its work in framing out a balanced price range because it's
415 |414 |00:41:41 ~-~-> 00:41:48 |delivered by side, sell side delivery, and then left it here. That won't make
416 |415 |00:41:48 ~-~-> 00:41:51 |sense to you the first time around, but when you start going through your charts
417 |416 |00:41:51 ~-~-> 00:41:56 |and looking at how price is using these volume imbalances, collect a lot of
418 |417 |00:41:57 ~-~-> 00:42:01 |instances where you see this event happening, and you'll know exactly I'm
419 |418 |00:42:01 ~-~-> 00:42:04 |talking about just seeing one example isn't sufficient enough, I promise you.
420 |419 |00:42:04 ~-~-> 00:42:08 |So what's the difference between this volume balance and this volume
421 |420 |00:42:08 ~-~-> 00:42:12 |imbalance? Well, this volume balance has no body buried over top of it with
422 |421 |00:42:12 ~-~-> 00:42:15 |either sell side delivery or buy side delivery. We just have a wick there, and
423 |422 |00:42:16 ~-~-> 00:42:21 |then we have this, this. We're here, just a wick. There's no bodies buried in
424 |423 |00:42:21 ~-~-> 00:42:29 |this range at all, zero. So when it left here like that, this is behaving just
425 |424 |00:42:29 ~-~-> 00:42:37 |like what a breakaway gap. There's no bodies left there. It did traverse both
426 |425 |00:42:37 ~-~-> 00:42:43 |sides of this area here with this passed down and went down through it and came
427 |426 |00:42:43 ~-~-> 00:42:46 |right back up, all in the same candlestick. That is not the same thing
428 |427 |00:42:46 ~-~-> 00:42:51 |as being delivered, like it does here, one candle and at a later time being
429 |428 |00:42:51 ~-~-> 00:42:56 |delivered on the downstroke. So we have buy side delivery, sell side delivery.
430 |429 |00:42:56 ~-~-> 00:43:00 |Here, we just have one little return back into it. Doesn't lay a body down on
431 |430 |00:43:00 ~-~-> 00:43:06 |the top of it at all, it just rips and runs away. So it's two different
432 |431 |00:43:06 ~-~-> 00:43:10 |dynamics there that's occurring with the volume imbalance. And you can see how
433 |432 |00:43:10 ~-~-> 00:43:13 |quickly, when you're listening to people try to teach these things, you know just
434 |433 |00:43:13 ~-~-> 00:43:17 |because you can, just because you can see a volume imbalance doesn't mean you
435 |434 |00:43:17 ~-~-> 00:43:21 |know what to do with it. Doesn't mean you know how it's going to be used in
436 |435 |00:43:21 ~-~-> 00:43:25 |price delivery. So, you know, that's why I get pissed off when people are
437 |436 |00:43:26 ~-~-> 00:43:31 |certainly because they're monetizing their education with my material that
438 |437 |00:43:31 ~-~-> 00:43:35 |they don't fully understand. You know, it's like I used to watch Doogie Howser
439 |438 |00:43:35 ~-~-> 00:43:39 |on TV. So I'm going to, I'm going to be a doctor and do an operation on
440 |439 |00:43:39 ~-~-> 00:43:47 |somebody. It doesn't work the same way. Okay, we should. We should see it rip
441 |440 |00:43:47 ~-~-> 00:43:48 |through that minor buy side here I'm
442 |441 |00:44:00 ~-~-> 00:44:17 |I still look at where we are in relationship to yesterday's 414
443 |442 |00:44:18 ~-~-> 00:44:21 |settlement right now price is at four, 545, I five.
444 |443 |00:44:30 ~-~-> 00:44:41 |Yeah, we have pretty good gap. So we have a premium gap in the making. So
445 |444 |00:44:41 ~-~-> 00:44:49 |we're way up here, so let's play devil's advocate for a moment. Okay, let's say
446 |445 |00:44:49 ~-~-> 00:44:57 |we trade above here and we don't rip and just take off with a gap premium opening
447 |446 |00:44:57 ~-~-> 00:45:01 |like we're implied. I. By looking at where we're at now in relation to where
448 |447 |00:45:01 ~-~-> 00:45:08 |we settled yesterday, we're two handles or so. We're very close to it. I forgot.
449 |448 |00:45:08 ~-~-> 00:45:11 |I didn't remember what the summit price is, so I'm trying to use one screen
450 |449 |00:45:11 ~-~-> 00:45:18 |here. The the likelihood of the market wanting to go to 50% of that gap would
451 |450 |00:45:18 ~-~-> 00:45:24 |easily take us into the run below these lows here, into this and maybe even so
452 |451 |00:45:24 ~-~-> 00:45:29 |much as a run below here. And then, if it were to do something like that,
453 |452 |00:45:29 ~-~-> 00:45:33 |retail would be very reluctant and want to be long because it's doing that type
454 |453 |00:45:33 ~-~-> 00:45:39 |of thing at the opening bell in the in the first 30 minutes or so. And then we
455 |454 |00:45:39 ~-~-> 00:45:43 |could change gears and then start working towards a run on a higher Time
456 |455 |00:45:43 ~-~-> 00:45:53 |Frame, avoiding the top picking dilemma and gravitate towards here. But it's all
457 |456 |00:45:54 ~-~-> 00:45:58 |dependent on on how it runs here, because we've cleared the money by side,
458 |457 |00:45:58 ~-~-> 00:46:02 |we I don't want to see it take off from there. I wanted to kind of see it, stay
459 |458 |00:46:02 ~-~-> 00:46:06 |close to this range and just hug around it. It doesn't need to be in the lower
460 |459 |00:46:06 ~-~-> 00:46:10 |half of it. It just needs to not run up there. And then what would happen is it
461 |460 |00:46:10 ~-~-> 00:46:15 |would set the stage for a small, little minor initial due to swing higher, but
462 |461 |00:46:15 ~-~-> 00:46:20 |not really do anything. Take out a short term high that's left prior to 930s
463 |462 |00:46:21 ~-~-> 00:46:26 |opening bell, and then drop, send us down into a discount. Try to trade for
464 |463 |00:46:26 ~-~-> 00:46:33 |half. The gaps range between where we open at 930 versus four fourteens
465 |464 |00:46:33 ~-~-> 00:46:36 |settlement price, when we use the you know, regular trading hours, when we do
466 |465 |00:46:36 ~-~-> 00:46:43 |this thing here, when we set our charts to that it, it tells us where our
467 |466 |00:46:43 ~-~-> 00:46:51 |opening range gap is. That's not that's not likely to go away where we are right
468 |467 |00:46:51 ~-~-> 00:46:56 |now, so in the next 30 minutes, I don't think that gap is going to disappear. So
469 |468 |00:46:56 ~-~-> 00:47:01 |we're going to most likely gap higher opening and then where we'd have to know
470 |469 |00:47:01 ~-~-> 00:47:05 |what the opening price is at 930 to get a halfway point. So consequent curtain
471 |470 |00:47:05 ~-~-> 00:47:11 |of that gap between 4:14pm eastern time yesterday, in regular trading hours to
472 |471 |00:47:11 ~-~-> 00:47:18 |930 opening bell, opening price in regular, I'm sorry, electronic trading
473 |472 |00:47:19 ~-~-> 00:47:23 |hours, drop your fib on that in that 50% level, that's the 70% likelihood in the
474 |473 |00:47:23 ~-~-> 00:47:28 |first 30 minutes that's going to trade there. Well, because that's something I
475 |474 |00:47:28 ~-~-> 00:47:33 |would anticipate, I would be looking for something to clear up all these lows in
476 |475 |00:47:33 ~-~-> 00:47:37 |here trade down to this inefficiency, and maybe so much as going down below
477 |476 |00:47:37 ~-~-> 00:47:45 |there. But that is, again, I Okay, if we don't just start running higher from
478 |477 |00:47:45 ~-~-> 00:47:51 |here, if we start ripping higher like this, and if we get, if we get anywhere
479 |478 |00:47:52 ~-~-> 00:48:01 |above 600 I would be less likely to believe at 930s opening bell for it to
480 |479 |00:48:01 ~-~-> 00:48:07 |drop all the way down to do half of a gap closure, or even a full gap closure,
481 |480 |00:48:08 ~-~-> 00:48:12 |before trading up the here. So it would be something like, if it gets like 600
482 |481 |00:48:12 ~-~-> 00:48:15 |before the opening bell, I think they would just use the Judas swing at the
483 |482 |00:48:15 ~-~-> 00:48:23 |opening bell, take us up there, sweep that, and then do some kind of a run on
484 |483 |00:48:23 ~-~-> 00:48:28 |the opening range gap. So there's a lot of scenarios there, and it's all
485 |484 |00:48:28 ~-~-> 00:48:33 |contingent on what the actual opening price is, because you don't know what
486 |485 |00:48:33 ~-~-> 00:48:37 |that price is. I'm waiting for it just like you are. So at 930 opening bell,
487 |486 |00:48:37 ~-~-> 00:48:42 |that opening price tells the story of what I just described what, what
488 |487 |00:48:42 ~-~-> 00:48:46 |scenario would I use? I just gave you several of them, but based on what it's
489 |488 |00:48:46 ~-~-> 00:48:52 |doing and what has done at the time of 930 would be the basis of how I would
490 |489 |00:48:52 ~-~-> 00:48:58 |trade the opening range, and how I would trade the opening range gap, and what I
491 |490 |00:48:58 ~-~-> 00:49:03 |would use for my setup and where my draw on liquidity would be, because if you
492 |491 |00:49:03 ~-~-> 00:49:06 |listen to what I said to a neophyte, to someone that's really not trying to
493 |492 |00:49:06 ~-~-> 00:49:10 |learn and not trying to paying attention, it sounds like I gave a
494 |493 |00:49:10 ~-~-> 00:49:13 |scenario. It could go up and if it goes there, I'll be right. If it goes down
495 |494 |00:49:13 ~-~-> 00:49:17 |below here, I'm right. That's not what I said. That's absolutely not what the I
496 |495 |00:49:17 ~-~-> 00:49:23 |said. I said that I prefer it not to run up there yet, I would like to see it
497 |496 |00:49:23 ~-~-> 00:49:27 |stay close to this range that created around 830 but if I'm wrong, okay,
498 |497 |00:49:27 ~-~-> 00:49:32 |because it's always possible. I'm not infallible. If it keeps running, and it
499 |498 |00:49:32 ~-~-> 00:49:37 |takes us above 600 here, ahead of 930 then I would expect them to use that
500 |499 |00:49:37 ~-~-> 00:49:43 |range between 600 to 660 or so, that would be the Judas swing of the morning,
501 |500 |00:49:44 ~-~-> 00:49:46 |and then they would sell off, going towards some kind of a gap closure
502 |501 |00:49:46 ~-~-> 00:49:51 |event. Mid gap three quarters of the gap closure, something to that effect. But
503 |502 |00:49:52 ~-~-> 00:49:57 |because I don't have the time to be in front of you at 930 because I'm already
504 |503 |00:49:57 ~-~-> 00:50:01 |over my time limit, now I'm giving you the sitting. Areas that I would use, and
505 |504 |00:50:01 ~-~-> 00:50:04 |all you have to do is listen to this recording again and see what the market
506 |505 |00:50:04 ~-~-> 00:50:10 |actually does. It may not do any of those things, but because I'm not aware
507 |506 |00:50:10 ~-~-> 00:50:14 |of what the actual price is going to be at 930 I have to give you scenarios that
508 |507 |00:50:14 ~-~-> 00:50:17 |I would be running through my mind anyway. These are all the types of
509 |508 |00:50:17 ~-~-> 00:50:21 |things I do when I'm waiting for that nine o'clock or, I'm sorry, 930 opening
510 |509 |00:50:21 ~-~-> 00:50:25 |bell, based on what I have in price, where is it likely to go? And how could
511 |510 |00:50:25 ~-~-> 00:50:31 |I build a narrative around what they may do at 930 if they want to intervene, if
512 |511 |00:50:31 ~-~-> 00:50:34 |they want to take this the algo off script, and just get in there and stir
513 |512 |00:50:34 ~-~-> 00:50:37 |it up the pot, what would they be running on? Who would they hurt? Why
514 |513 |00:50:37 ~-~-> 00:50:42 |would they want to do that? Okay, but gun to my head. You know, we're going
515 |514 |00:50:42 ~-~-> 00:50:47 |here, here and here. That's plain and simple, but that's not a straight line.
516 |515 |00:50:48 ~-~-> 00:50:51 |I don't I'm not trying to convince you that it's going to go straight up from
517 |516 |00:50:51 ~-~-> 00:50:58 |here. It can, but it would be without me. Okay, so I was expecting a little
518 |517 |00:50:58 ~-~-> 00:51:03 |bit more animation here and it is what it is. But we watched the two volume
519 |518 |00:51:03 ~-~-> 00:51:06 |imbalances. I gave you some details around the volume balance and how it
520 |519 |00:51:06 ~-~-> 00:51:10 |looks price and how it becomes a balanced price range. And now you're
521 |520 |00:51:10 ~-~-> 00:51:17 |going to be left to the opening bell all by yourself. Tune Up. I'll touch base
522 |521 |00:51:17 ~-~-> 00:51:20 |with you guys later this afternoon. I'm certain of it tickle your twitter then
523 |522 |00:51:21 ~-~-> 00:51:24 |and until I talk to you later, be safe. Do.