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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-10-08 13:30
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2 |1 |00:00:14 ~-~-> 00:00:20 |ICT: Hi, Caleb, this is a 15 minute time frame on NASDAQ December contract, and
3 |2 |00:00:20 ~-~-> 00:00:28 |when I take a look at the opening range gap, all right, so that's what we're
4 |3 |00:00:28 ~-~-> 00:00:34 |seeing here in this light blue, turquoise, blue, colored rectangle mid
5 |4 |00:00:34 ~-~-> 00:00:39 |gap. It's consequent encroachment. Since we opened lower we have a discount gap
6 |5 |00:00:39 ~-~-> 00:00:47 |7% of time. We're looking for a return back into half gap by 10 o'clock. And
7 |6 |00:00:47 ~-~-> 00:00:54 |then we have the market consolidating, but making lower lows as it does so. So
8 |7 |00:00:54 ~-~-> 00:01:01 |it was underneath a heavy measure of distribution. Then we have a positive
9 |8 |00:01:01 ~-~-> 00:01:05 |amount cell sign and efficiency down here, the market ultimately reached for
10 |9 |00:01:05 ~-~-> 00:01:10 |my focus is down here, so we'll see what we get. In regards to that, for this
11 |10 |00:01:10 ~-~-> 00:01:15 |week, we have some pretty heavy new CPI and PPI later in the week. All right,
12 |11 |00:01:19 ~-~-> 00:01:22 |here's a five minute chart. You start to see a little bit more details in here.
13 |12 |00:01:22 ~-~-> 00:01:26 |Open here. Opening price at 930 Eastern Time, settlement price on Friday at
14 |13 |00:01:26 ~-~-> 00:01:33 |4:14pm Eastern Time and again. Everything in here was leaning towards a
15 |14 |00:01:33 ~-~-> 00:01:36 |pm session, as I mentioned in the live stream. Watch that live stream again.
16 |15 |00:01:36 ~-~-> 00:01:41 |You'll see that it is showing prognostication about the afternoon
17 |16 |00:01:41 ~-~-> 00:01:45 |being a little bit more low resistance liquidity. This is high resistance
18 |17 |00:01:45 ~-~-> 00:01:48 |liquidity conditions. That means it's going to be a lot of back and forth. And
19 |18 |00:01:48 ~-~-> 00:01:52 |then finally, the market does release later on in the afternoon. It does get a
20 |19 |00:01:52 ~-~-> 00:02:01 |little bit looser and runs rather aggressively lower. Right. You see the
21 |20 |00:02:01 ~-~-> 00:02:04 |bodies here. This is what I was referring to, and why I was suggesting
22 |21 |00:02:04 ~-~-> 00:02:09 |that the pm session was most likely going to see us trading lower to attack
23 |22 |00:02:09 ~-~-> 00:02:12 |the sell side. Now we made no real attempt to get up in the upper half,
24 |23 |00:02:12 ~-~-> 00:02:17 |only the wicks were doing so. And initially I drew the first business
25 |24 |00:02:17 ~-~-> 00:02:20 |everybody got here like this, because I wanted to see the wick, the wick
26 |25 |00:02:21 ~-~-> 00:02:26 |difference in here and how often it worked inside that. This is the actual
27 |26 |00:02:27 ~-~-> 00:02:32 |first presenter fair value gap, because has it blowing the balance at top and
28 |27 |00:02:32 ~-~-> 00:02:36 |blowing the balance at the bottom, all right? So we'll take a look at the
29 |28 |00:02:36 ~-~-> 00:02:43 |afternoon. Now with this first presenter fair value gap. I have the 130 to two
30 |29 |00:02:43 ~-~-> 00:02:48 |o'clock that's the opening range for pm session. So whatever PD array forms
31 |30 |00:02:48 ~-~-> 00:02:52 |inside that 30 minutes, that's what's going to be used for the afternoon
32 |31 |00:02:52 ~-~-> 00:02:58 |trend. Okay, so whatever setup is going to form, it's many times going to be
33 |32 |00:02:58 ~-~-> 00:03:02 |linked to something that occurs between the 130 to two o'clock Eastern time. As
34 |33 |00:03:02 ~-~-> 00:03:07 |you see here, we have a breaker. So we have a breaker here, and it also trades
35 |34 |00:03:07 ~-~-> 00:03:11 |up to the bottom of that first percentage of everybody got low. So
36 |35 |00:03:11 ~-~-> 00:03:17 |extend that into the afternoon, we can see a mid range of the lowest downpost
37 |36 |00:03:17 ~-~-> 00:03:22 |Candle makes the bearish breaker inside of the 130 to two o'clock. So half of
38 |37 |00:03:22 ~-~-> 00:03:29 |that breaker is also the low of the first presented fair value gaps low. So
39 |38 |00:03:29 ~-~-> 00:03:35 |if we take a closer look at that, you can see that zoomed in here on a 32nd
40 |39 |00:03:35 ~-~-> 00:03:41 |chart, I had a volume imbalance in mind, and I was looking at this as a turtle
41 |40 |00:03:41 ~-~-> 00:03:44 |suit. As I mentioned last week in the lectures, high resistance liquidity run
42 |41 |00:03:44 ~-~-> 00:03:49 |conditions is a perfect storm for turtle suit shorts and longs. In this case,
43 |42 |00:03:49 ~-~-> 00:03:52 |that's indicated in the live stream this morning that we would be looking for
44 |43 |00:03:52 ~-~-> 00:03:56 |lower prices and that the market would be a little bit looser, favorable, more
45 |44 |00:03:56 ~-~-> 00:04:00 |favorable. We can see that actually happening here. I tried to do a limit
46 |45 |00:04:00 ~-~-> 00:04:04 |order, and I'm going to put a link in the comment section of the video, so
47 |46 |00:04:04 ~-~-> 00:04:08 |that way people can go to the Twitter account and see how I was treating it,
48 |47 |00:04:08 ~-~-> 00:04:13 |actually. But I wanted to go short on a turtle suit run above here, my limit
49 |48 |00:04:13 ~-~-> 00:04:17 |order was a little too rich, so I was demanding too much precision, and it
50 |49 |00:04:17 ~-~-> 00:04:21 |wasn't able to give it to me. So I had to use the volume imbalances in here,
51 |50 |00:04:21 ~-~-> 00:04:25 |and we'll take a closer look at that. But also you can see how it worked, the
52 |51 |00:04:25 ~-~-> 00:04:29 |breaker and the bottom of the first presented fair value gap low and drops
53 |52 |00:04:29 ~-~-> 00:04:30 |precipitously.
54 |53 |00:04:37 ~-~-> 00:04:41 |All right, you can hear, you can see the executions in here, reaching down into
55 |54 |00:04:41 ~-~-> 00:04:46 |the pools of liquidity. And I'm going to go in a little bit deeper and let you
56 |55 |00:04:46 ~-~-> 00:04:50 |see some more details here. All right, so you can see that this entry here is
57 |56 |00:04:50 ~-~-> 00:04:55 |inside that volume imbalance right there, and the actual high is actually
58 |57 |00:04:55 ~-~-> 00:04:59 |two ticks above that. So the high of that candlestick comes in at 20,001 21
59 |58 |00:04:59 ~-~-> 00:05:04 |even. So I was marketing in as it was happening. And then the other entry here
60 |59 |00:05:04 ~-~-> 00:05:08 |was just based on this small little volume and balance as well. So I was
61 |60 |00:05:08 ~-~-> 00:05:13 |trying to time that you can see the relative equal highs here. That is a
62 |61 |00:05:13 ~-~-> 00:05:17 |turtle soup. But my entry did not get filled. And I was looking for this
63 |62 |00:05:17 ~-~-> 00:05:20 |volume and balance to be a little bit more of a factor. And it wasn't able to
64 |63 |00:05:20 ~-~-> 00:05:28 |do so. And ultimately, you can see there's alternate entry models. Here. We
65 |64 |00:05:28 ~-~-> 00:05:33 |have the inversion fair value gap here with a volume imbalance, and you can see
66 |65 |00:05:33 ~-~-> 00:05:37 |it trading up into that. So that could have been an entry model for you, where
67 |66 |00:05:37 ~-~-> 00:05:40 |you could simply use the bearish order block here with the change in the state
68 |67 |00:05:40 ~-~-> 00:05:43 |of delivery, which is that opening price, that's what changing the state of
69 |68 |00:05:43 ~-~-> 00:05:47 |delivery is when it's bearish, that candlesticks opening price, when it
70 |69 |00:05:47 ~-~-> 00:05:50 |trades back up to here, that would have been an entry. This could have been an
71 |70 |00:05:50 ~-~-> 00:05:53 |entry. This could have been an entry, and this could have been an entry, and
72 |71 |00:05:53 ~-~-> 00:05:59 |then ultimately trading back up into anything like a consequence encroachment
73 |72 |00:05:59 ~-~-> 00:06:03 |of this wick also could have been used there as well. Model 2022, is right here
74 |73 |00:06:03 ~-~-> 00:06:09 |as well. So you have a high breaking up, short term low shift in market structure
75 |74 |00:06:09 ~-~-> 00:06:14 |here. They got there, stop a low there. And that could have been your alternate
76 |75 |00:06:14 ~-~-> 00:06:18 |entry models as well. But for you, Caleb, none of this is for you, because
77 |76 |00:06:18 ~-~-> 00:06:19 |it's all afternoon session. You