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2 |1 |00:00:00 ~-~-> 00:00:22 |ICT: All right, so broken in a weekly chart here. And if you recall, at the
3 |2 |00:00:22 ~-~-> 00:00:25 |beginning of the week on Monday's live stream, I walked you through the top
4 |3 |00:00:25 ~-~-> 00:00:30 |down analysis. I told you how we traded up into this premium sell side of
5 |4 |00:00:30 ~-~-> 00:00:34 |balance by side and efficiency. And we started this week here up around the
6 |5 |00:00:34 ~-~-> 00:00:39 |high end of the candles opening price. And I mentioned before we cheated down
7 |6 |00:00:39 ~-~-> 00:00:43 |here that this is where we would likely draw into this boss and a bounce. Also
8 |7 |00:00:43 ~-~-> 00:00:50 |efficiency this candle here, and we have seen that this week, the daily chart,
9 |8 |00:00:50 ~-~-> 00:00:55 |again, same imbalance on the weekly you can see we've worked that several times
10 |9 |00:00:55 ~-~-> 00:01:02 |so far this week, and there's an inefficiency down here. And I think that
11 |10 |00:01:03 ~-~-> 00:01:09 |before we get there, we could potentially trade below these lows. Now,
12 |11 |00:01:10 ~-~-> 00:01:17 |tomorrow's Non Farm Payroll, that is a highly manipulated day. So the data, in
13 |12 |00:01:17 ~-~-> 00:01:26 |my opinion, is not as important because it's already baked into price, but the
14 |13 |00:01:26 ~-~-> 00:01:32 |sentiment aspects that that number captures the minds of of investors and
15 |14 |00:01:32 ~-~-> 00:01:36 |causes them to feel either bullish or bearish or unravels their present
16 |15 |00:01:36 ~-~-> 00:01:40 |bullish embarrassness If they're holding positions. So it's going to be a
17 |16 |00:01:40 ~-~-> 00:01:45 |carnival ride like it always is, and at 830 tomorrow, everything's going to be
18 |17 |00:01:45 ~-~-> 00:01:55 |moving around, a lot of volatility, but I think that going into next week, we
19 |18 |00:01:55 ~-~-> 00:02:00 |travel to here and most likely try to work down inside this inefficiency right
20 |19 |00:02:00 ~-~-> 00:02:06 |there. If I'm wrong, then it's going to need to trade above this candlesticks
21 |20 |00:02:06 ~-~-> 00:02:13 |open for me to be bullish. So until that happens, this candlesticks opening price
22 |21 |00:02:13 ~-~-> 00:02:22 |or lower, I'm bearish. Alright? My students know that my classic point of
23 |22 |00:02:22 ~-~-> 00:02:28 |view for a new trader, new student is trade on Monday of the week of Non Farm
24 |23 |00:02:28 ~-~-> 00:02:33 |Payroll. Trade on Tuesday, don't trade on Wednesday, don't trade on Thursday,
25 |24 |00:02:34 ~-~-> 00:02:38 |don't trade on Friday. Alright, here's Thursday's trading. Here on a 50 minute
26 |25 |00:02:38 ~-~-> 00:02:45 |time frame, here's Wednesday's trading and here's Tuesday's trading. So you can
27 |26 |00:02:45 ~-~-> 00:02:51 |see Tuesday much better in terms of price delivery, Wednesday consolidation,
28 |27 |00:02:52 ~-~-> 00:02:56 |Thursday consolidation. This is graphically depicting exactly why I tell
29 |28 |00:02:57 ~-~-> 00:03:01 |brand new students don't trade this week. Now it doesn't mean that you if
30 |29 |00:03:01 ~-~-> 00:03:04 |you have more experience, more understanding, and you have a model, and
31 |30 |00:03:04 ~-~-> 00:03:08 |you're not going to go in there and try to trade aggressively with huge over
32 |31 |00:03:08 ~-~-> 00:03:11 |leveraged positions. It doesn't mean that you can't take trades. It just
33 |32 |00:03:11 ~-~-> 00:03:15 |means that, as a mentor, I'm trying to be responsible to remind those
34 |33 |00:03:15 ~-~-> 00:03:18 |individuals that they'll have a lot of experience that might get wrapped up on
35 |34 |00:03:18 ~-~-> 00:03:23 |something that they see in price action and then completely lose their their
36 |35 |00:03:23 ~-~-> 00:03:28 |bearings and potentially hurt themselves financially. But with that said, we have
37 |36 |00:03:28 ~-~-> 00:03:31 |sell side resting below here. I think that's going to be a factor for Non Farm
38 |37 |00:03:31 ~-~-> 00:03:35 |Payroll tomorrow. We've already upset the buy side here, relative equal highs.
39 |38 |00:03:35 ~-~-> 00:03:40 |You can see that we did, in fact, run up there, worked that level and then stayed
40 |39 |00:03:40 ~-~-> 00:03:45 |in a nasty little consolidation and then dug down in, took the sell side here,
41 |40 |00:03:46 ~-~-> 00:03:53 |and consolidated into close of the day. Here's a five minute chart of price
42 |41 |00:03:53 ~-~-> 00:03:59 |action for today. As you can see, it's kind of it's gnarly. Basically comes up,
43 |42 |00:03:59 ~-~-> 00:04:03 |hits the buy side, mentioned on the 15 minute time frame, and then spends a
44 |43 |00:04:03 ~-~-> 00:04:09 |long time just banging around. And this is exactly what I tell students to
45 |44 |00:04:09 ~-~-> 00:04:15 |avoid. It's actually very easy to simply avoid this. No one told you that you had
46 |45 |00:04:15 ~-~-> 00:04:18 |to trade today, but someone did tell you that you should avoid trading, and
47 |46 |00:04:18 ~-~-> 00:04:23 |that's me, but I know you don't like to listen to your daddy. So we're gonna
48 |47 |00:04:23 ~-~-> 00:04:28 |take a look at what this price has done here on a one minute chart. First we're
49 |48 |00:04:28 ~-~-> 00:04:31 |gonna look at through the lens of regular trading hours. And lower right
50 |49 |00:04:31 ~-~-> 00:04:36 |hand corner, you'll see that RTH. That means we're gonna see the price delivery
51 |50 |00:04:36 ~-~-> 00:04:44 |between 9:30am Eastern Time until 4:14pm Eastern time. So the previous day here
52 |51 |00:04:44 ~-~-> 00:04:50 |on Wednesday, that's the settlement at 414 Eastern Time, and then where we
53 |52 |00:04:50 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |opened up at 930 today. So that's your opening range gap, defined by that
54 |53 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:04:58 |separation between the two price points in this rectangle here is essentially
55 |54 |00:04:58 ~-~-> 00:05:06 |the opening range gap. And the opening range, so the time and the gap, so the
56 |55 |00:05:06 ~-~-> 00:05:12 |market has a mid gap level here. So we opened traded right back up to it. So 7%
57 |56 |00:05:12 ~-~-> 00:05:16 |of the time the gap will get filled to halfway. Again, you're still seeing that
58 |57 |00:05:16 ~-~-> 00:05:21 |number going I saw a guy posting on Twitter that someone did a study on it,
59 |58 |00:05:22 ~-~-> 00:05:26 |and it doesn't live up to 70% you can check your math, because I went back 40
60 |59 |00:05:26 ~-~-> 00:05:32 |years, okay? And I got data going back for decades, and also I've been living
61 |60 |00:05:32 ~-~-> 00:05:38 |it. So your data's off. The idea of it reaching back to 70 70% of time, going
62 |61 |00:05:38 ~-~-> 00:05:42 |to halfway of the gap, is a nice little scalping opportunity. But if we open up
63 |62 |00:05:42 ~-~-> 00:05:46 |down here, it just means for the opening range, that means the first 30 minutes
64 |63 |00:05:46 ~-~-> 00:05:51 |bias is bullish, so it goes up to it here, pulls back down in fair value gap
65 |64 |00:05:51 ~-~-> 00:05:57 |here, rallies back higher, find some support at mid. Gap rallies up to
66 |65 |00:05:57 ~-~-> 00:06:02 |previous day's settlement. Another fair value gap rallies up and clears the buy
67 |66 |00:06:02 ~-~-> 00:06:06 |side spends a little bit of time in here. It's exactly what you want to see,
68 |67 |00:06:06 ~-~-> 00:06:10 |because this is accumulation of buy stops. Smart Money is accumulating those
69 |68 |00:06:10 ~-~-> 00:06:15 |for the Express purposes to trade it short, the market breaks lower, comes
70 |69 |00:06:15 ~-~-> 00:06:19 |back in to this sell side, imbalanced buy side and efficiency. So this candle
71 |70 |00:06:19 ~-~-> 00:06:23 |sticks low. That's what you see this dashed line with. And this candle sticks
72 |71 |00:06:23 ~-~-> 00:06:26 |high. That's this dashed line. And then the midpoint of that is consequent
73 |72 |00:06:26 ~-~-> 00:06:31 |encroachment. That's this line here. So we had a really nasty back and forth
74 |73 |00:06:32 ~-~-> 00:06:36 |price consolidation in here, and then rallies back above and trades into
75 |74 |00:06:36 ~-~-> 00:06:39 |consequent encroachment of that sell sign and bounce buy side efficiency on
76 |75 |00:06:40 ~-~-> 00:06:43 |the one minute chart. Now let's take a look at it through the lens of a
77 |76 |00:06:44 ~-~-> 00:06:48 |electronic trading hours chart. On one minute time frame, you can see that sell
78 |77 |00:06:48 ~-~-> 00:06:51 |side and balance, buy side and efficiency, after the market has traded
79 |78 |00:06:51 ~-~-> 00:06:56 |up to the buy side, breaks lower, comes right back in and then later in the day,
80 |79 |00:06:56 ~-~-> 00:07:01 |after all this chopping around here, it goes back into the lower half of this
81 |80 |00:07:01 ~-~-> 00:07:07 |city. It does not get in the upper half. So that tells you that this is most
82 |81 |00:07:07 ~-~-> 00:07:11 |likely going to be when we go lower. We have a nice pool of liquidity down here,
83 |82 |00:07:11 ~-~-> 00:07:15 |and we have the middle of that weekly buy side of balance cell sign in
84 |83 |00:07:15 ~-~-> 00:07:18 |efficiency. That's what this line is here. So since we were unable to treat
85 |84 |00:07:18 ~-~-> 00:07:21 |an upper half of that sell side of balance by side and efficiency, it's
86 |85 |00:07:21 ~-~-> 00:07:25 |more likely it's going to break lower. So after displacement lower, we have a
87 |86 |00:07:25 ~-~-> 00:07:32 |gap in here that initially I thought was going to be traded back up into, but I
88 |87 |00:07:32 ~-~-> 00:07:36 |later corrected myself and saw that this was essentially a breakaway gap, and in
89 |88 |00:07:36 ~-~-> 00:07:40 |this little consolidation, trading back up into all the wicks, if you do all the
90 |89 |00:07:40 ~-~-> 00:07:44 |50% measurements of that for consequent encroachment, it's reaching up into
91 |90 |00:07:44 ~-~-> 00:07:50 |those and then we break lower, attacking the cell side here, here, and also link
92 |91 |00:07:50 ~-~-> 00:07:55 |down here, and then delivering to the consequent encroachment of the weekly
93 |92 |00:07:55 ~-~-> 00:07:59 |biosignal balance, cell sign efficiency, which is this blue rectangle area, which
94 |93 |00:07:59 ~-~-> 00:08:04 |is what I taught you on Monday's live streamed, top down analysis on the
95 |94 |00:08:04 ~-~-> 00:08:07 |weekly chart. After hitting that, it makes the low of the day, and the mark
96 |95 |00:08:07 ~-~-> 00:08:11 |goes off that and then consolidates into the afternoon. I want to take a closer
97 |96 |00:08:11 ~-~-> 00:08:14 |look in here, because I want to show you that I did, in fact, execute in that
98 |97 |00:08:16 ~-~-> 00:08:20 |here is this consolidation trading up into all the candlesticks wicks in here,
99 |98 |00:08:21 ~-~-> 00:08:24 |but in here on the one minute chart, you can't see what I'm about to show you,
100 |99 |00:08:24 ~-~-> 00:08:28 |but there's a inversion fair value gap over here on the 15 second chart, you
101 |100 |00:08:28 ~-~-> 00:08:32 |can see this candlestick right there, that buy side of balance, outside
102 |101 |00:08:32 ~-~-> 00:08:36 |efficiency. Once we traded outside of it, it came back up into it, and I went
103 |102 |00:08:36 ~-~-> 00:08:42 |short. Six contracts there at 20,010 and three quarters traded lower. One more
104 |103 |00:08:42 ~-~-> 00:08:48 |spike up in here before taking out this. Candlesticks low, and I'll add four more
105 |104 |00:08:48 ~-~-> 00:08:56 |there. And we broke lower. I took partials at 19,009 64, and a half traded
106 |105 |00:08:56 ~-~-> 00:09:01 |into institutional order, flow entry drill there, broke lower, dug down into
107 |106 |00:09:01 ~-~-> 00:09:09 |another partial at 19,009 25 even came back up into a fair value gap here. Sold
108 |107 |00:09:09 ~-~-> 00:09:16 |off down in and I took one contract off at 19,008 82 and a quarter, about three
109 |108 |00:09:16 ~-~-> 00:09:20 |handles or so away from the low of the day, and it's below the weekly bison
110 |109 |00:09:20 ~-~-> 00:09:25 |valve, cell sign efficiency, consequent encroachment the mid gaps, inefficiency,
111 |110 |00:09:25 ~-~-> 00:09:29 |that blue shaded area. Then it had two contracts running as a as a potential,
112 |111 |00:09:29 ~-~-> 00:09:33 |in case they want to break down further. But it ultimately came back and hit the
113 |112 |00:09:33 ~-~-> 00:09:39 |stop loss on the balance of the two contracts at 19,009 41 and a half. So
114 |113 |00:09:40 ~-~-> 00:09:45 |the difference is experience. The difference is, is understanding it's not
115 |114 |00:09:45 ~-~-> 00:09:48 |likely that you're going to have the experience to trade this and expect
116 |115 |00:09:48 ~-~-> 00:09:52 |these types of price runs during the week of Non Farm Payroll, but over time
117 |116 |00:09:52 ~-~-> 00:09:58 |you will. But it's not it's not responsible for me as a mentor to try to
118 |117 |00:09:58 ~-~-> 00:10:02 |teach you to chase these. Types of moves when it's a lot more difficult to trade
119 |118 |00:10:02 ~-~-> 00:10:06 |in these environments. Now, can I do it? Yes, but it doesn't mean that you should
120 |119 |00:10:06 ~-~-> 00:10:06 |try to
121 |120 |00:10:08 ~-~-> 00:10:13 |pretend to be the equivalent of what 30 years of experience yields. To me, your
122 |121 |00:10:13 ~-~-> 00:10:18 |best interest is to sit still and study these days and appreciate the level of
123 |122 |00:10:18 ~-~-> 00:10:22 |difficulty it brings with it, because if you can't recognize that early on,
124 |123 |00:10:22 ~-~-> 00:10:27 |you're going to have these high expectations, unrealistic expectations,
125 |124 |00:10:27 ~-~-> 00:10:30 |that you're going to be able to navigate well in these environments without
126 |125 |00:10:30 ~-~-> 00:10:33 |someone guiding you. It's ill advised you