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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-10-08 13:31
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2 |1 |00:04:00 ~-~-> 00:04:15 |ICT: Well, good morning, folks, good morning. Good morning. If you are one of
3 |2 |00:04:15 ~-~-> 00:04:23 |the few that follow me on X, you could just give me a heads up, let me know you
4 |3 |00:04:23 ~-~-> 00:04:32 |can hear me. Audio check. Is the audio good? Is the audio loud?
5 |4 |00:04:42 ~-~-> 00:04:43 |I'm not hearing myself, so
6 |5 |00:04:53 ~-~-> 00:04:59 |already I'm getting confirmation that you all can hear so that's good. So I
7 |6 |00:04:59 ~-~-> 00:05:03 |appreciate your. Have your patience. I wanted to have that risk disclaimer show
8 |7 |00:05:03 ~-~-> 00:05:09 |for a little bit longer than I normally do, so, and I apologize for being
9 |8 |00:05:09 ~-~-> 00:05:15 |somewhat tardy. But you know us, us. You know we have to stick to the Union
10 |9 |00:05:15 ~-~-> 00:05:19 |guidelines and rules, and we have to be you have to be late every now and then.
11 |10 |00:05:20 ~-~-> 00:05:28 |We like to sell it as fashionable to be to be late, just union rules, folks. So
12 |11 |00:05:30 ~-~-> 00:05:34 |obviously we are going to be watching the carnage that is Non Farm Payroll
13 |12 |00:05:34 ~-~-> 00:05:41 |here in a about 20 minutes or so. And I want to remind you that I never know
14 |13 |00:05:41 ~-~-> 00:05:48 |where it's going to go. Not far. Payroll is a carnival ride, and it can be very
15 |14 |00:05:48 ~-~-> 00:05:54 |damaging. If you go out here and try to speculate ahead of it. Treat it like a
16 |15 |00:05:54 ~-~-> 00:05:58 |FOMC. You don't know where it's going. Treat like CPI. You don't know where
17 |16 |00:05:58 ~-~-> 00:06:03 |it's going. Like a PPI number. You have no idea where it's going. So it's always
18 |17 |00:06:03 ~-~-> 00:06:09 |better to simply wait, wait for it to do whatever it's going to do, wait about 15
19 |18 |00:06:09 ~-~-> 00:06:13 |minutes and then see what the lay of the land looks like after that. Meaning,
20 |19 |00:06:14 ~-~-> 00:06:20 |what inefficiencies are still in play, what smooth areas above or below the
21 |20 |00:06:20 ~-~-> 00:06:26 |marketplace 15 minutes minimum after nonprofit apparel hits. So that means
22 |21 |00:06:26 ~-~-> 00:06:32 |845, Eastern Standard Time, New York local time. That's when you have the
23 |22 |00:06:32 ~-~-> 00:06:38 |green light to start going in and seeking opportunities to study. If
24 |23 |00:06:38 ~-~-> 00:06:44 |you're brand new, if you're a brand new student, you're brand new trader in the
25 |24 |00:06:44 ~-~-> 00:06:50 |making, if you will, whether you if you have studied with anyone else, if you're
26 |25 |00:06:50 ~-~-> 00:06:55 |coming to me, I'm calling you a brand new okay, because chances are you
27 |26 |00:06:55 ~-~-> 00:06:58 |probably learned a lot of stuff that has absolutely no bearing on why price is
28 |27 |00:06:58 ~-~-> 00:07:02 |going to move. So it's no question as to why you're losing money if you're
29 |28 |00:07:02 ~-~-> 00:07:06 |trading on these days, because you're trying to do something that is ill
30 |29 |00:07:06 ~-~-> 00:07:11 |equipped to handle the uncertainty that even my concepts will not deliver the
31 |30 |00:07:11 ~-~-> 00:07:16 |clarity that's required to be positioned ahead of it. So that's the reason why I
32 |31 |00:07:16 ~-~-> 00:07:25 |tell my students, if you're brand new, don't trade after Wednesday morning, New
33 |32 |00:07:25 ~-~-> 00:07:30 |York local time on Non Farm Payroll weeks. And you can see Wednesday was a
34 |33 |00:07:30 ~-~-> 00:07:33 |little bit of a challenging day. Thursday was a little bit of a
35 |34 |00:07:33 ~-~-> 00:07:36 |challenging day. If you're new, if you don't know what you're doing, they can
36 |35 |00:07:36 ~-~-> 00:07:41 |be very problematic. And then you're met with, obviously, the the king of
37 |36 |00:07:41 ~-~-> 00:07:46 |volatility for this particular week, it's the Non Farm Payroll. It's usually
38 |37 |00:07:46 ~-~-> 00:07:55 |the first Friday of every month, 8:30am and leading up that number, it can be a
39 |38 |00:07:55 ~-~-> 00:08:00 |little unruly in price, meaning that it can, it can start to consolidate and
40 |39 |00:08:00 ~-~-> 00:08:04 |then create these little sharp, little jabs above or below, and go right back
41 |40 |00:08:04 ~-~-> 00:08:08 |into consolidation again. And you can see, pretty much that's what we've seen
42 |41 |00:08:08 ~-~-> 00:08:15 |here. Now there has been, for completeness sake, in my career, and
43 |42 |00:08:15 ~-~-> 00:08:23 |since I was doing mentorship with the forex pairs, there has been nonparallel
44 |43 |00:08:23 ~-~-> 00:08:31 |weeks where during the Wednesday and Thursday, very favorable price action
45 |44 |00:08:31 ~-~-> 00:08:38 |was available. Put it that way, but that's usually far and few between. So
46 |45 |00:08:38 ~-~-> 00:08:42 |it's not the standard. So it was, it was very difficult for me to try to teach
47 |46 |00:08:42 ~-~-> 00:08:49 |this concept to new forex traders, because they're constantly looking to
48 |47 |00:08:49 ~-~-> 00:08:52 |get into a trade. They're constantly trying to chase the influencers, trying
49 |48 |00:08:52 ~-~-> 00:08:56 |to get enough money or get enough understandings. They can talk good game
50 |49 |00:08:57 ~-~-> 00:09:02 |and do mentorships and courses and whatnot, because that's the fast money.
51 |50 |00:09:02 ~-~-> 00:09:06 |That's the easy money, getting someone else to send you money for education.
52 |51 |00:09:06 ~-~-> 00:09:10 |And you can talk in Market Replay. There's a lot of suckers that fall into
53 |52 |00:09:10 ~-~-> 00:09:14 |that. But you have to know what you're doing. You have to know exactly how
54 |53 |00:09:14 ~-~-> 00:09:17 |you're going to navigate these markets. Because if you're put into the litmus
55 |54 |00:09:17 ~-~-> 00:09:21 |test of having to do it live, explaining why the market should behave a certain
56 |55 |00:09:21 ~-~-> 00:09:26 |way and why it should not behave a certain way given times. That's prowess,
57 |56 |00:09:26 ~-~-> 00:09:32 |that's understanding, excuse me, the lack of that in this industry is
58 |57 |00:09:33 ~-~-> 00:09:38 |obvious. You can really see it, but there's a lot of lipstick added to hide
59 |58 |00:09:38 ~-~-> 00:09:44 |those types of things, because of pomp because of things purchased outside of
60 |59 |00:09:44 ~-~-> 00:09:48 |trading profits and showcasing those things. So I just want to remind the
61 |60 |00:09:48 ~-~-> 00:09:52 |young man, because that's usually who this is I'm talking to, you're not
62 |61 |00:09:52 ~-~-> 00:09:57 |trying to become an influencer. You gotta first learn how to be a good
63 |62 |00:09:57 ~-~-> 00:10:01 |trader, because endless amounts of money income. Opportunities will be afforded
64 |63 |00:10:01 ~-~-> 00:10:07 |to you if you learn how to do this well, you can open up a path. I have no idea
65 |64 |00:10:07 ~-~-> 00:10:12 |what's available to you right now. You're blinded by confusion and
66 |65 |00:10:12 ~-~-> 00:10:17 |uncertainty, not knowing what to do. Just in your journal, do me and yourself
67 |66 |00:10:17 ~-~-> 00:10:21 |a favor. Write in your journal that you have permission, you have ICTs
68 |67 |00:10:21 ~-~-> 00:10:28 |permission, and give yourself permission to never trade this day. Never trade it
69 |68 |00:10:29 ~-~-> 00:10:35 |now, months from now, after you've developed yourself into a well rounded
70 |69 |00:10:35 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |trader, you have a model that you haven't deviated from. You haven't
71 |70 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:43 |tinkered with it, you haven't tried to change things when you're getting
72 |71 |00:10:43 ~-~-> 00:10:47 |consistent returns using that and you don't feel swayed by your emotions.
73 |72 |00:10:48 ~-~-> 00:10:56 |Then, then you can go into Non Farm Payroll after the release at 830 week 15
74 |73 |00:10:56 ~-~-> 00:11:01 |minutes minimum, and then the rest of the day you can trade it normally, but
75 |74 |00:11:01 ~-~-> 00:11:04 |it's important for you to prove that you have the the willpower to stay away from
76 |75 |00:11:04 ~-~-> 00:11:09 |this carnival ride. Because every new trader, whether they're Forex,
77 |76 |00:11:09 ~-~-> 00:11:15 |commodities or futures, they all want to try to trade this day. And I did too. I
78 |77 |00:11:15 ~-~-> 00:11:19 |wanted to, like, I saw a lot of movement. I was like, Wow, if I could
79 |78 |00:11:19 ~-~-> 00:11:23 |get that kind of movement real quick and sudden that would overcome my fear and
80 |79 |00:11:23 ~-~-> 00:11:27 |anxiety about staying in a trade, because it was something I wouldn't
81 |80 |00:11:27 ~-~-> 00:11:31 |willing to submit to. Putting on a trade and having to wait for it to get to your
82 |81 |00:11:31 ~-~-> 00:11:35 |target is is agony. When you're a new student, when you're a new trader, you
83 |82 |00:11:35 ~-~-> 00:11:38 |want them to be just like my videos, where I speed them up and it feels like,
84 |83 |00:11:38 ~-~-> 00:11:44 |wow, I got 185 handles in two and a half minutes. That's the trades I want. But
85 |84 |00:11:44 ~-~-> 00:11:48 |it's not accurate. It's not a true depiction of what you're gonna have to
86 |85 |00:11:48 ~-~-> 00:11:52 |submit to. But watching the Non Farm Payroll, as you'll see in a couple
87 |86 |00:11:52 ~-~-> 00:11:56 |minutes, it tricks you when you're brand new. It tricks you thinking that, wow,
88 |87 |00:11:56 ~-~-> 00:12:00 |there's a way to get in there before that. No, there isn't. There really
89 |88 |00:12:00 ~-~-> 00:12:04 |isn't, folks, and I want you to know that. I want you to understand that
90 |89 |00:12:04 ~-~-> 00:12:09 |there is no consistent way for you to be positioned ahead of Non Farm Payroll
91 |90 |00:12:09 ~-~-> 00:12:15 |with any measure of consistency that will afford you profitability. I mean
92 |91 |00:12:15 ~-~-> 00:12:19 |that sincerely. I'm not hiding some secret technique, concept, PD, array, I
93 |92 |00:12:19 ~-~-> 00:12:26 |don't know. Okay, I genuinely In Jesus name I do not know how to call Non Farm
94 |93 |00:12:26 ~-~-> 00:12:32 |Payroll before it happens. I don't so I have to sit here, and I have to wait,
95 |94 |00:12:32 ~-~-> 00:12:36 |just like anybody else would, and see, what do they do to damage on? What do
96 |95 |00:12:36 ~-~-> 00:12:42 |they what do they crush in terms of buy side and sell side. What inefficiencies
97 |96 |00:12:42 ~-~-> 00:12:48 |do they trade to, and which ones do they leave? So I got a question about, you
98 |97 |00:12:48 ~-~-> 00:12:54 |know what? What constitutes a minor buy side and sell side, and what is the
99 |98 |00:12:54 ~-~-> 00:13:00 |primary buy side and sell side? So every single time I sit in front of Non Farm
100 |99 |00:13:00 ~-~-> 00:13:03 |Payroll, and I don't do it all the time, or sometimes, because I don't trade
101 |100 |00:13:03 ~-~-> 00:13:09 |them, really the the times where I'm not interested in looking at it, I'm doing
102 |101 |00:13:09 ~-~-> 00:13:15 |something else. But if I am able to, I always try to study Non Farm Payroll. I
103 |102 |00:13:15 ~-~-> 00:13:19 |usually watch it with my private students, and I'll cover like about what
104 |103 |00:13:19 ~-~-> 00:13:23 |I'm going to show you here, where the actual primary minor liquidity pools
105 |104 |00:13:23 ~-~-> 00:13:27 |are, and then we watch and see which one hits, and then we look for the opposing
106 |105 |00:13:27 ~-~-> 00:13:31 |side to get traded to. So in your mind, that's what I'll that's all I want you
107 |106 |00:13:31 ~-~-> 00:13:35 |to do today, and every Non Farm Payroll going forward. And I'm going to tell you
108 |107 |00:13:35 ~-~-> 00:13:42 |why this will fail as a studying mechanism as well. But initially I want
109 |108 |00:13:42 ~-~-> 00:13:46 |you to look at the chart. Start with a 15 minute time frame. It's very, very
110 |109 |00:13:46 ~-~-> 00:13:55 |simple rules. Okay, what you're going to do is about 815 quarter after eight,
111 |110 |00:13:55 ~-~-> 00:13:58 |where you have 15 minutes or so, we have plenty of time, so I can still jawbone
112 |111 |00:13:58 ~-~-> 00:14:05 |and cover what I'm going to say, but 815 you want to see where market price is at
113 |112 |00:14:05 ~-~-> 00:14:09 |that time. So we give ourselves 15 minutes before the actual news release.
114 |113 |00:14:09 ~-~-> 00:14:14 |At 830 they released the employment data. I don't care what the number is. I
115 |114 |00:14:14 ~-~-> 00:14:21 |never I never review. I have never reviewed with my students, the number of
116 |115 |00:14:21 ~-~-> 00:14:26 |how many jobless claims there has been, and the change from the previous month,
117 |116 |00:14:26 ~-~-> 00:14:28 |I could care less about that number.
118 |117 |00:14:29 ~-~-> 00:14:33 |The market doesn't care about that number. Okay, the market is a big
119 |118 |00:14:33 ~-~-> 00:14:37 |casino, and they're they're throwing constant red herrings at you as a trader
120 |119 |00:14:37 ~-~-> 00:14:42 |and as a speculator, as an investor, they're trying to cultivate and
121 |120 |00:14:42 ~-~-> 00:14:48 |manipulate market sentiment with these things. That's why, fundamentally,
122 |121 |00:14:48 ~-~-> 00:14:54 |speaking no pun intended, the the pursuit of using that data on a short
123 |122 |00:14:54 ~-~-> 00:15:02 |term basis is flawed, just like trying to use. Long term interest rate trends
124 |123 |00:15:02 ~-~-> 00:15:07 |for intraday trading is useless, because you could be in a carry trade market on
125 |124 |00:15:07 ~-~-> 00:15:13 |a forex pair where one interest rate in a country is higher than the other, and
126 |125 |00:15:13 ~-~-> 00:15:18 |being long with that currency as the base, that would be a good long term
127 |126 |00:15:18 ~-~-> 00:15:22 |trade holding on to it, because not only you're going to be most likely
128 |127 |00:15:22 ~-~-> 00:15:25 |profitable in the direction, but you're also going to get interest bearing,
129 |128 |00:15:26 ~-~-> 00:15:33 |because you're having your money tied up in that larger interest rate currency in
130 |129 |00:15:33 ~-~-> 00:15:37 |that respect, obviously, you know it makes sense to hold on to a pair like
131 |130 |00:15:37 ~-~-> 00:15:41 |that, because it's going to yield better over time. But that doesn't mean that I
132 |131 |00:15:41 ~-~-> 00:15:46 |wouldn't sell short, that that forex pair, if I was trading it. So these
133 |132 |00:15:46 ~-~-> 00:15:50 |fundamental long term perspectives, these macro perspectives, macro in a
134 |133 |00:15:50 ~-~-> 00:15:57 |sense, it's higher Time Frame and broad in scope, the the necessity for all that
135 |134 |00:15:57 ~-~-> 00:16:04 |stuff while, while trading, is next to nothing for me, but it's wonderful
136 |135 |00:16:06 ~-~-> 00:16:10 |instigation for other people that are less informed to make decisions where
137 |136 |00:16:10 ~-~-> 00:16:15 |they put their money in our reach and we can take it. So just know that I am not
138 |137 |00:16:15 ~-~-> 00:16:18 |looking at fundamental data. I never look at the raw data. I don't look at
139 |138 |00:16:18 ~-~-> 00:16:23 |ppi number, CPI number. I don't give a shit what the FOMC rate announcement is.
140 |139 |00:16:23 ~-~-> 00:16:28 |I never care to look at it. I don't ever care to look at it. And everything that
141 |140 |00:16:28 ~-~-> 00:16:33 |you need to know is inside these little candlesticks. That's the everything that
142 |141 |00:16:33 ~-~-> 00:16:37 |you need to know is right there. Because what this is actually giving you is a
143 |142 |00:16:37 ~-~-> 00:16:44 |real seismic graph of the market sentiment of less informed traders.
144 |143 |00:16:44 ~-~-> 00:16:49 |That's what I see in price. I see stupid people doing stupid things with their
145 |144 |00:16:49 ~-~-> 00:16:53 |money, and I'm waiting for the opportunity where I see something where
146 |145 |00:16:53 ~-~-> 00:16:57 |they're arm wrestling me, and if they're arm wrestling me, and they're willing to
147 |146 |00:16:57 ~-~-> 00:17:01 |put their money on the line, I'm going to take that money. I'm going to sleep
148 |147 |00:17:01 ~-~-> 00:17:04 |well at night. I'm not going to care that they lost the money. I have no
149 |148 |00:17:04 ~-~-> 00:17:08 |problem. I have no Christian qualms about it, because they signed the same
150 |149 |00:17:08 ~-~-> 00:17:13 |risk disclaimers that I signed when I open up my accounts, so they are aware.
151 |150 |00:17:13 ~-~-> 00:17:16 |They know that there's a potential they're going to lose money if they're
152 |151 |00:17:16 ~-~-> 00:17:20 |foolish enough to think that they're going to be smart enough to get ahead of
153 |152 |00:17:20 ~-~-> 00:17:24 |the marketplace in non front payroll. Know exactly where it's going to go, and
154 |153 |00:17:24 ~-~-> 00:17:31 |you can't enter a trade. You can't put a trade on rate as the 830 news driver and
155 |154 |00:17:32 ~-~-> 00:17:38 |enters the marketplace. Try to put a trade in. You won't get filled, or
156 |155 |00:17:38 ~-~-> 00:17:44 |eventually you'll get filled at the most inopportune time with enormous slippage.
157 |156 |00:17:44 ~-~-> 00:17:48 |That means where you're trying to get in it and where you actually get filled is
158 |157 |00:17:48 ~-~-> 00:17:55 |way out of spec. So don't do it. Okay, just don't do it. So now let's go
159 |158 |00:17:55 ~-~-> 00:17:59 |through the liquidity pools. So we're here. We're essentially right here at
160 |159 |00:17:59 ~-~-> 00:18:05 |815 so we look back, we cleared this high. So that's not a liquidity pool
161 |160 |00:18:05 ~-~-> 00:18:09 |that high right there. It's a wick, but still high. So we drop our level right
162 |161 |00:18:09 ~-~-> 00:18:10 |there.
163 |162 |00:18:15 ~-~-> 00:18:21 |And this is a close proximity buy side liquidity pool, meaning this is going to
164 |163 |00:18:21 ~-~-> 00:18:26 |be your minor. So you have to look for something above that one real simple top
165 |164 |00:18:26 ~-~-> 00:18:36 |left, and we'll go to minor. All right. You ready? Was that hard? It complicates
166 |165 |00:18:36 ~-~-> 00:18:43 |everything, alright? So going back from this area here at 815 or so, go to your
167 |166 |00:18:43 ~-~-> 00:18:48 |nearest low. That's not a low. I would consider that this right here, this is a
168 |167 |00:18:48 ~-~-> 00:18:55 |minor sell side liquidity pool. So you can do this. All you're doing is looking
169 |168 |00:18:55 ~-~-> 00:19:02 |for the closest one at a specific time, right before a news event. I'm
170 |169 |00:19:19 ~-~-> 00:19:27 |so easy, even a child can do it. Speaking of children, I believe my son,
171 |170 |00:19:27 ~-~-> 00:19:33 |Caleb, has passed his top step combine. So we'll be waiting for confirmation on
172 |171 |00:19:33 ~-~-> 00:19:41 |that. Proud of you, son, proud of you, but now you're at the hearty this was,
173 |172 |00:19:41 ~-~-> 00:19:47 |this was, this is the easy part. Getting there is easy. Staying there and getting
174 |173 |00:19:47 ~-~-> 00:19:50 |paid out. That's the challenge, because you're going to wrestle with the
175 |174 |00:19:50 ~-~-> 00:19:56 |emotions, alright? So they have minor sell side liquidity and minor buy side.
176 |175 |00:19:57 ~-~-> 00:20:06 |Now you have to take a little bit broader. Look above that. Okay, so we
177 |176 |00:20:06 ~-~-> 00:20:10 |have this now. Look at, look at we have here. We have all this consolidation and
178 |177 |00:20:10 ~-~-> 00:20:16 |all these little lows down here on a news report day, like Non Farm Payroll,
179 |178 |00:20:16 ~-~-> 00:20:23 |they're going to go way outside, way outside what you think is reasonable.
180 |179 |00:20:24 ~-~-> 00:20:28 |That's the problem with Non Farm Payroll. It's so uncertain. And they can
181 |180 |00:20:28 ~-~-> 00:20:34 |go way out of spec in terms of average daily range. They can go outside of what
182 |181 |00:20:34 ~-~-> 00:20:38 |you think it could go to, Oh, it can't. I don't think it's going to go there,
183 |182 |00:20:38 ~-~-> 00:20:42 |and that's exactly where it goes. So chances are when you look at the chart
184 |183 |00:20:42 ~-~-> 00:20:47 |and you think to yourself, I don't, I can't imagine it going there. Ask
185 |184 |00:20:47 ~-~-> 00:20:50 |somebody that doesn't know how to trade look at the chart, okay, and say,
186 |185 |00:20:50 ~-~-> 00:20:54 |Listen, if something really big happened and the market started to move around,
187 |186 |00:20:54 ~-~-> 00:20:59 |up or down, really, really fast, where do you think it would go? Like, pick up,
188 |187 |00:20:59 ~-~-> 00:21:05 |pick a spot on there. Uncanny. Uncanny how that works. But when we come into
189 |188 |00:21:05 ~-~-> 00:21:10 |it, we're looking for all these patterns, these things and whatnot. We
190 |189 |00:21:10 ~-~-> 00:21:14 |dilute that purity of looking through the lens of someone that doesn't know
191 |190 |00:21:14 ~-~-> 00:21:21 |what's going on. So I would not look at these consolidation lows as anything of
192 |191 |00:21:21 ~-~-> 00:21:25 |importance, this is the minor cell side liquidity pool. But cut through all this
193 |192 |00:21:25 ~-~-> 00:21:30 |consolidation, go right to these relative equal lows. So this right here
194 |193 |00:21:30 ~-~-> 00:21:39 |is going to be primary cell side. Primary is just the next logical level
195 |194 |00:21:39 ~-~-> 00:21:43 |of liquidity below your near close proximity, minor cell side liquidity,
196 |195 |00:21:43 ~-~-> 00:21:48 |which is this low, and this is the minor by side liquidity, because it's close
197 |196 |00:21:48 ~-~-> 00:21:51 |proximity to where we're at right now, there's no other high because we've
198 |197 |00:21:52 ~-~-> 00:21:55 |already cleared this one, and we already cleared this individual candlestick
199 |198 |00:21:55 ~-~-> 00:21:58 |there. So that means this is a minor positive liquidity pool. Now, is that
200 |199 |00:21:58 ~-~-> 00:22:07 |complicated? No, it's really simple. So bottom left, and that's the business
201 |200 |00:22:07 ~-~-> 00:22:16 |there. Now, here is the primary buy side. You think it's going to go just to
202 |201 |00:22:16 ~-~-> 00:22:20 |fill in this, I'm going to submit to you that if it's going to go up here, it's
203 |202 |00:22:20 ~-~-> 00:22:25 |going to run right on through to clear this. Why? Because somebody's up here
204 |203 |00:22:25 ~-~-> 00:22:32 |short and they think that they're safe, because this is retail resistance. So
205 |204 |00:22:32 ~-~-> 00:22:33 |this
206 |205 |00:22:39 ~-~-> 00:22:46 |Okay, I promise. I've been on trading view before. I love how I always like to
207 |206 |00:22:46 ~-~-> 00:22:52 |make it look like what I'm doing with this app or platform. I should say, All
208 |207 |00:22:52 ~-~-> 00:23:03 |right, so that is the primary, primary buy side liquidity. Okay, so now the
209 |208 |00:23:03 ~-~-> 00:23:09 |next question is this from a narrative stance, and I am generally wrong when it
210 |209 |00:23:09 ~-~-> 00:23:18 |comes to Non Farm Payroll, so I want to remind you of this. Okay, we have an
211 |210 |00:23:18 ~-~-> 00:23:23 |obvious drop that was precipitous here, going down into a weekly target. What
212 |211 |00:23:23 ~-~-> 00:23:26 |you're looking for inside that buy side of balance, cell sign, efficiency, that
213 |212 |00:23:26 ~-~-> 00:23:31 |blue rectangle. Go watch the first 18 minutes of Monday's live stream. If you
214 |213 |00:23:31 ~-~-> 00:23:35 |do that, you'll see where that blue box came from, why it was important, why I
215 |214 |00:23:35 ~-~-> 00:23:40 |believed it was going to go down there as a weekly target as it hit it. We
216 |215 |00:23:40 ~-~-> 00:23:44 |haven't done much at all, have we? That's pretty interesting, isn't it? So
217 |216 |00:23:44 ~-~-> 00:23:48 |contrast that with how I told you to avoid Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of
218 |217 |00:23:48 ~-~-> 00:23:51 |this week trading. I told you where the market was going to go, told you why it
219 |218 |00:23:51 ~-~-> 00:23:54 |was going to go down there, and it went there, and then it behaved like it did
220 |219 |00:23:54 ~-~-> 00:23:59 |here. And even in this sloppy stuff you saw, I can trade. I can trade in this
221 |220 |00:23:59 ~-~-> 00:24:04 |mess, you're probably not going to do well doing it so because we have
222 |221 |00:24:04 ~-~-> 00:24:08 |somebody that's already made money and they're sitting in profit right now, Non
223 |222 |00:24:08 ~-~-> 00:24:17 |Farm Payroll is a pain, pain mechanism. It's used many times to destabilize, to
224 |223 |00:24:18 ~-~-> 00:24:22 |mess up current sentiment and or unseat individuals and then go the other
225 |224 |00:24:22 ~-~-> 00:24:29 |direction. So what could happen today is we could see it do some wild run up
226 |225 |00:24:29 ~-~-> 00:24:35 |here, knock these individuals out, and then into next week, go lower and not
227 |226 |00:24:35 ~-~-> 00:24:38 |even take out these lows. That's something that can happen. Or it could
228 |227 |00:24:38 ~-~-> 00:24:43 |go down, because this is closer to get to this cell side trip people short, and
229 |228 |00:24:43 ~-~-> 00:24:47 |then rake it all the way across the coals, and then pump it all day long up
230 |229 |00:24:47 ~-~-> 00:24:51 |to get to here, and then go into the weekend where everybody thinks it's
231 |230 |00:24:51 ~-~-> 00:24:58 |bullish, and then we start going lower next week. Or it could just do a little
232 |231 |00:24:58 ~-~-> 00:25:02 |fizzy moving around in here. Here and leave both pools of liquidity, and I'm
233 |232 |00:25:02 ~-~-> 00:25:07 |wrong, and you're wrong, and everybody else is wrong, and these get beat up. So
234 |233 |00:25:08 ~-~-> 00:25:12 |a lot of scenarios here. So how can one say this is the one I'm going to side
235 |234 |00:25:12 ~-~-> 00:25:17 |with? I don't I don't have that visibility. I don't have that but we
236 |235 |00:25:17 ~-~-> 00:25:22 |were all going to watch it now. Okay, so these levels are here, and we're going
237 |236 |00:25:22 ~-~-> 00:25:28 |to watch it on a five minute chart, because it's a little bit more fun. One
238 |237 |00:25:28 ~-~-> 00:25:32 |minutes is too it's too much to see on a one minute chart.
239 |238 |00:25:39 ~-~-> 00:25:40 |And here we go.
240 |239 |00:25:46 ~-~-> 00:25:54 |Already moved the hunter handles and hasn't even been 20 seconds. So the
241 |240 |00:25:54 ~-~-> 00:26:00 |miner buy side's been tagged. Be real easy for it to drop down to get the
242 |241 |00:26:00 ~-~-> 00:26:01 |minor sell side still too. It's
243 |242 |00:26:14 ~-~-> 00:26:19 |a little lackluster here. I was expecting a little bit more punch having
244 |243 |00:26:19 ~-~-> 00:26:21 |the Non Farm Payroll before the election this year.
245 |244 |00:26:31 ~-~-> 00:26:33 |Okay, since it's slow, we will go down to a one minute chart.
246 |245 |00:26:42 ~-~-> 00:26:54 |I So on this first candle at 830 the low came in at 20,064 and the high came in
247 |246 |00:26:55 ~-~-> 00:27:03 |at 20,001 62 okay, so 9898 handles in one minute. Can you can you weather that
248 |247 |00:27:03 ~-~-> 00:27:08 |if you're wrong? Can you weather that with your 15 contracts and your over
249 |248 |00:27:08 ~-~-> 00:27:11 |leveraged funded account challenge or your funded account? Can you do that?
250 |249 |00:27:11 ~-~-> 00:27:18 |Because I'm going to remind you, with common sense, you can't. Okay, so the
251 |250 |00:27:18 ~-~-> 00:27:23 |first pool of liquidity they've taken is the minor buy side. So we're going to
252 |251 |00:27:23 ~-~-> 00:27:29 |see, do we have any interest that go below and get that minor sell side? It's
253 |252 |00:27:29 ~-~-> 00:27:29 |not
254 |253 |00:27:40 ~-~-> 00:27:44 |important to look at the individual candle sticks. So don't, don't complain,
255 |254 |00:27:44 ~-~-> 00:27:47 |like, come on, you're you're two down. I want to see fair value gaps. That
256 |255 |00:27:47 ~-~-> 00:27:52 |doesn't happen here. You're looking for the liquidity for the first 15 minutes.
257 |256 |00:27:52 ~-~-> 00:27:57 |You want to see what stops they run for above and below the marketplace. So this
258 |257 |00:27:57 ~-~-> 00:28:01 |is accomplishing the method. You have your own chart you can look at you look
259 |258 |00:28:01 ~-~-> 00:28:06 |at, I just want you to submit to the idea of watching where it wants to reach
260 |259 |00:28:06 ~-~-> 00:28:07 |for for stops. Do you feel
261 |260 |00:28:21 ~-~-> 00:28:27 |like you missed anything so far? Oh, I wish I would have. Do you feel any of
262 |261 |00:28:27 ~-~-> 00:28:30 |that inside right now, like I wish I would have done this. I wish I would
263 |262 |00:28:30 ~-~-> 00:28:34 |have done that. Or if you had a position and you carried it into this, did you
264 |263 |00:28:34 ~-~-> 00:28:42 |get stopped out? Are you making money right now, if you carried a position in,
265 |264 |00:28:42 ~-~-> 00:28:44 |are you willing to hold on to that trade still?
266 |265 |00:28:53 ~-~-> 00:28:57 |I would like to see it dive down and get that mindset from where it's at right
267 |266 |00:28:57 ~-~-> 00:29:11 |now, because they've already engaged buy side. So since it's kind of slow for a
268 |267 |00:29:11 ~-~-> 00:29:21 |typical, typical Non Farm Payroll, what I'm looking at is this. I'm viewing it
269 |268 |00:29:21 ~-~-> 00:29:22 |from this perspective.
270 |269 |00:29:30 ~-~-> 00:29:38 |The buy side minor has been hit first. There's minor sell side down here,
271 |270 |00:29:40 ~-~-> 00:29:45 |because it's a Non Farm Payroll event. You may look at these lows here and
272 |271 |00:29:45 ~-~-> 00:29:49 |think, Well, that's that's where my eyes would go, not mine, because this low is
273 |272 |00:29:49 ~-~-> 00:29:55 |already lower than that one, and this lows lower than that one. So I'm using
274 |273 |00:29:55 ~-~-> 00:30:02 |this low and that low. So. That's what makes my liquidity pool the first minor
275 |274 |00:30:02 ~-~-> 00:30:06 |sell side. But I see this as
276 |275 |00:30:12 ~-~-> 00:30:19 |the minor buy stops have been acquired here, and if this is the first side they
277 |276 |00:30:19 ~-~-> 00:30:28 |go to at 830 someone could be interested in accumulating positions in here, and
278 |277 |00:30:28 ~-~-> 00:30:35 |if they're running for buy stops with the idea that at a later time today,
279 |278 |00:30:35 ~-~-> 00:30:40 |that it could be potentially lower, where would they want to off load those
280 |279 |00:30:41 ~-~-> 00:30:49 |below this low here, or we're going up here. We're consolidating, accumulating
281 |280 |00:30:50 ~-~-> 00:30:57 |to run, to take the primary buy stops. I have nothing to frame that run on. I
282 |281 |00:30:57 ~-~-> 00:31:01 |wouldn't want to take that trade, even though it looks wonderful in terms of
283 |282 |00:31:01 ~-~-> 00:31:06 |the payout. If you were to hold on to it, I would not do that. And it's still
284 |283 |00:31:06 ~-~-> 00:31:08 |835 so we have nine minutes still.
285 |284 |00:31:21 ~-~-> 00:31:24 |Now looking at it normally, this is what the chart would look like when you're
286 |285 |00:31:24 ~-~-> 00:31:25 |watching it with me.
287 |286 |00:31:30 ~-~-> 00:31:31 |What have you
288 |287 |00:31:39 ~-~-> 00:31:48 |what have you seen here? A fair value gap trades down until one minute before
289 |288 |00:31:49 ~-~-> 00:31:54 |we rally to take the minor buy side. Okay, watch the wick. I
290 |289 |00:32:17 ~-~-> 00:32:21 |if it clears this high it would need to run aggressively and not spend any more
291 |290 |00:32:21 ~-~-> 00:32:26 |time coming back inside this shade of area. If it's underlying bullish and it
292 |291 |00:32:26 ~-~-> 00:32:31 |wants to run, otherwise, if it goes up and fails and goes back down and trades
293 |292 |00:32:31 ~-~-> 00:32:37 |below this, this comes, this becomes rather a potential inversion fair Vega,
294 |293 |00:32:37 ~-~-> 00:32:40 |because normally where it's at now, because it's a buy sign down, sell sign,
295 |294 |00:32:40 ~-~-> 00:32:44 |efficiency and the market prices here, that means it would be normally expected
296 |295 |00:32:44 ~-~-> 00:32:50 |to see it come down as a discount. And if it's bullish, this should offer a
297 |296 |00:32:50 ~-~-> 00:32:56 |reason for the algo to offer that price and then reprice higher. But if it goes
298 |297 |00:32:56 ~-~-> 00:33:01 |down through that and comes back up, that would be inversion. Then we can use
299 |298 |00:33:01 ~-~-> 00:33:07 |that to do a case study for the cell side down here. All right, so we're at
300 |299 |00:33:07 ~-~-> 00:33:11 |right now. It needs to continue. It should not ever come back down in here.
301 |300 |00:33:11 ~-~-> 00:33:11 |I'm
302 |301 |00:33:20 ~-~-> 00:33:27 |did you give yourself permission not to trade? I'll just remind you.
303 |302 |00:33:34 ~-~-> 00:33:46 |So far, this is actually a very timid and tame NFP day. I i Actually puzzled
304 |303 |00:33:46 ~-~-> 00:33:52 |as of why they're holding you back here. I was expecting a whole lot more
305 |304 |00:33:52 ~-~-> 00:34:00 |fireworks seeing that this is the last one before we get to our election. I up.
306 |305 |00:34:17 ~-~-> 00:34:21 |I don't think I'm saying that correctly. We I gotta check my acting on the
307 |306 |00:34:21 ~-~-> 00:34:26 |calendar. November 1 is Friday, so that that could, they could be using that for
308 |307 |00:34:26 ~-~-> 00:34:31 |NFP. I may have been ahead of myself saying that, but I
309 |308 |00:34:46 ~-~-> 00:34:56 |now think about how, in what 15 minutes, 15 minutes the opening bell in the stock
310 |309 |00:34:56 ~-~-> 00:35:06 |market, if they are lifting price. Right at 830 all the way up to opening range,
311 |310 |00:35:06 ~-~-> 00:35:10 |which is 930 to 10 o'clock in the morning. Reminder 10 o'clock, I'm
312 |311 |00:35:10 ~-~-> 00:35:13 |breaking the live session. I have something to take care of. I can escape
313 |312 |00:35:13 ~-~-> 00:35:19 |it so the the public, if they keep sending this higher, and they don't go
314 |313 |00:35:19 ~-~-> 00:35:29 |down to the miner sell side at all, and we open up at 930 right here. We're
315 |314 |00:35:29 ~-~-> 00:35:40 |trading at 20,001 80 or so. We go to river trading hours. We're down here. So
316 |315 |00:35:40 ~-~-> 00:35:49 |previous settlement is here, and we're up here, so that's a really large gap.
317 |316 |00:35:51 ~-~-> 00:36:00 |What happens if it manages to climb all the way up there? We have an enormous
318 |317 |00:36:00 ~-~-> 00:36:09 |gap. So is it possible going to climb that much? I don't think so. It would
319 |318 |00:36:09 ~-~-> 00:36:13 |have been a lot more energetic by now if it was trying to get there. It doesn't
320 |319 |00:36:13 ~-~-> 00:36:18 |mean that it can't still try to press it there throughout the day session and
321 |320 |00:36:18 ~-~-> 00:36:23 |today and just leave everything as it is, go into the weekend with a whole lot
322 |321 |00:36:23 ~-~-> 00:36:28 |of lipstick on this pig. And people see that on the weekend, they'll read
323 |322 |00:36:28 ~-~-> 00:36:31 |barons, they'll read all the investors, Business Daily, Wall Street Journal,
324 |323 |00:36:31 ~-~-> 00:36:36 |whatnot, and all the talking heads will say, well, the market's really strong
325 |324 |00:36:36 ~-~-> 00:36:40 |because the employment data was this, that and the other thing. And then next
326 |325 |00:36:40 ~-~-> 00:36:46 |week, you know, we start seeing underlying weakness. I'm not trying to
327 |326 |00:36:46 ~-~-> 00:36:55 |pick the top. I'm just saying that. I'm not, I'm not trying to pick the top, but
328 |327 |00:36:55 ~-~-> 00:36:59 |I'm not so not trying to be a permeable either, because we're in that really
329 |328 |00:36:59 ~-~-> 00:37:10 |weird, place, technically and seasonally, for the market to do
330 |329 |00:37:10 ~-~-> 00:37:14 |something pretty crazy, and we have all these looming false flags that could pop
331 |330 |00:37:14 ~-~-> 00:37:21 |off at any time. And I suspect next week we're probably gonna have one. So
332 |331 |00:37:21 ~-~-> 00:37:32 |there's some chicken little stuff over the the fair value gap in here. That's
333 |332 |00:37:32 ~-~-> 00:37:34 |one that you want to have on your chart. Note that one I
334 |333 |00:37:47 ~-~-> 00:37:53 |but this one here, right on the jump of Non Farm Payroll, because it was the
335 |334 |00:37:53 ~-~-> 00:37:58 |candle that starts this big carnival ride. If it comes back below this, this
336 |335 |00:37:58 ~-~-> 00:38:04 |is the one I'd like to see definitely as a inversion Fairbank to run down to
337 |336 |00:38:04 ~-~-> 00:38:09 |here, but nothing in here has given me any reason to be a buyer or seller yet.
338 |337 |00:38:14 ~-~-> 00:38:19 |Now as a young man, I would look at this and say, wow, you know, I could have
339 |338 |00:38:19 ~-~-> 00:38:27 |went long right before that happened, and I could be up almost 120 handles or
340 |339 |00:38:27 ~-~-> 00:38:35 |so, and I would literally convince myself that I could find these setups
341 |340 |00:38:35 ~-~-> 00:38:42 |beforehand. And every single time I tried, regret the times I was right, it
342 |341 |00:38:42 ~-~-> 00:38:49 |would stop me out, and then it would run where I wanted to go. So it's something
343 |342 |00:38:49 ~-~-> 00:38:57 |that I mentioned many times, that an opportunity in the wrong conditions, an
344 |343 |00:38:57 ~-~-> 00:39:03 |opportunity is a cleverly disguised impossibility, and that's what I want
345 |344 |00:39:03 ~-~-> 00:39:09 |you to subscribe to, in terms of expecting setups before Non Farm Payroll
346 |345 |00:39:09 ~-~-> 00:39:17 |before 830 Non Farm Payroll Fridays. Hold no bias. Hold no expectation over
347 |346 |00:39:17 ~-~-> 00:39:24 |price. Allow price to show you what it has after, and we have one more minute,
348 |347 |00:39:24 ~-~-> 00:39:29 |15 seconds, and then we can start looking for what's available for price.
349 |348 |00:39:36 ~-~-> 00:39:42 |This is the best orange juice I've ever had. Wow, you know, sometimes you get a
350 |349 |00:39:42 ~-~-> 00:39:46 |glass of orange juice and it's like basically battery acid, and doesn't
351 |350 |00:39:46 ~-~-> 00:39:51 |taste like anything but acid. The last batch of this we had was kind of like
352 |351 |00:39:51 ~-~-> 00:39:58 |that, and this one here is very pleasant. Sometimes you get good
353 |352 |00:39:58 ~-~-> 00:40:08 |oranges, and sometimes you don't, you. Uh, orange juice. It's just, uh, for a
354 |353 |00:40:08 ~-~-> 00:40:13 |long time I wouldn't drink it. Back in the 90s, I had, I got my first slap
355 |354 |00:40:14 ~-~-> 00:40:23 |trading orange juice futures in the option market. First trade like that,
356 |355 |00:40:23 ~-~-> 00:40:29 |and then I lost half my money. All right, 10 seconds.
357 |356 |00:40:40 ~-~-> 00:40:44 |All right. Now it's been 15 minutes after the non front payroll release, so
358 |357 |00:40:45 ~-~-> 00:40:51 |you want to go through your charts and see what is left. Going back through
359 |358 |00:40:51 ~-~-> 00:41:01 |price here on a one minute chart, okay, nothing really to speak of there. You
360 |359 |00:41:01 ~-~-> 00:41:07 |have to go to a five minute chart. I mentioned this down here, so I will
361 |360 |00:41:07 ~-~-> 00:41:14 |already have this on the chart in the event that it does trade here. My
362 |361 |00:41:14 ~-~-> 00:41:18 |interest in that is not to see it come down for a buy. I'm not looking at it
363 |362 |00:41:18 ~-~-> 00:41:23 |like that. If it goes down there, I'm going to see it trade down through it,
364 |363 |00:41:23 ~-~-> 00:41:28 |come back up, treat it as an inversion, fair value gap to ride to minor sell
365 |364 |00:41:28 ~-~-> 00:41:34 |side. That's where my interest lays. Right now, I'm not arguing, and I'm not
366 |365 |00:41:34 ~-~-> 00:41:39 |fighting what it's doing here. I'm just not interested, because right now it's
367 |366 |00:41:39 ~-~-> 00:41:47 |in an area where it's no trade. For me, it's straight from 830 right on up. So
368 |367 |00:41:47 ~-~-> 00:41:52 |what is this? To me? In my mind, it's a Judah swing. I'm looking at this as
369 |368 |00:41:53 ~-~-> 00:42:00 |bait. I'm looking at it as John Q Public. He just got done reading, you
370 |369 |00:42:00 ~-~-> 00:42:06 |know, a couple books, Elliot, wave pitchforks, you know, Dow Theory, white
371 |370 |00:42:06 ~-~-> 00:42:11 |golf. He's watched some Supply and Demand videos, and he's looking at this
372 |371 |00:42:11 ~-~-> 00:42:17 |and he's thinking, wow, this is a bullish market. Like, this is, this is
373 |372 |00:42:17 ~-~-> 00:42:23 |clearly going up. So they're going to look at indicators. They're going to
374 |373 |00:42:23 ~-~-> 00:42:27 |plot their little moving averages. They're going to put pivot numbers on
375 |374 |00:42:27 ~-~-> 00:42:32 |they're going to look for anything and everything they get in this to go up.
376 |375 |00:42:34 ~-~-> 00:42:37 |And the other ones that are just looking at this, they're just simply going to
377 |376 |00:42:37 ~-~-> 00:42:40 |put a buy stop right above this candlestick here, and if it goes up
378 |377 |00:42:40 ~-~-> 00:42:44 |there, they're going to get tripped in go long. So they're just looking for any
379 |378 |00:42:44 ~-~-> 00:42:53 |excuse to get into the market. Long. From this candle at 830 that low to this
380 |379 |00:42:53 ~-~-> 00:43:05 |high has been one straight direction. No stop run, no candlestick, taking out any
381 |380 |00:43:05 ~-~-> 00:43:12 |trailed cell, stops for anyone that we long, because no one could get long. So
382 |381 |00:43:12 ~-~-> 00:43:19 |all of this is just building in a premium ahead of the 930 opening bell.
383 |382 |00:43:22 ~-~-> 00:43:27 |There and what I'm anticipating is I want to see us
384 |383 |00:43:33 ~-~-> 00:43:40 |inside that 30 minute interval of time. I want to see some reason why, during
385 |384 |00:43:41 ~-~-> 00:43:47 |this 30 minutes, but it could happen before I want To see it trade down into
386 |385 |00:43:47 ~-~-> 00:43:48 |this.
387 |386 |00:43:59 ~-~-> 00:44:09 |Let's do uh let's leave it there was. We'll come back to it. Minor cell side
388 |387 |00:44:09 ~-~-> 00:44:19 |under here. I have the pups kennel in there next to me, and if I leave the
389 |388 |00:44:19 ~-~-> 00:44:27 |room, because my wife's out shopping right now. I can't I can't live stream
390 |389 |00:44:27 ~-~-> 00:44:32 |because they'll be hound and barking, and it'll distract me, so you're going
391 |390 |00:44:32 ~-~-> 00:44:37 |to hear them moving around. They're trying to still get my attention. But I
392 |391 |00:44:37 ~-~-> 00:44:42 |see this as just basically pumping it up, providing a premium. Now here's
393 |392 |00:44:42 ~-~-> 00:44:45 |where I could be wrong, and I'm completely content with being wrong.
394 |393 |00:44:45 ~-~-> 00:44:48 |They could just keep pushing this higher, higher, higher, higher, higher,
395 |394 |00:44:48 ~-~-> 00:44:52 |to run to this as the daily objective. And that's, that's the That's it. That's
396 |395 |00:44:52 ~-~-> 00:45:00 |the objective. I will look at something inside of the 930 to 10 o'clock i. The
397 |396 |00:45:00 ~-~-> 00:45:08 |opening range. And see, I trust that if it doesn't get there before then, and it
398 |397 |00:45:08 ~-~-> 00:45:13 |is, in fact, trying to get up there between these two time points, I have
399 |398 |00:45:13 ~-~-> 00:45:18 |confidence that I would see something in there that would afford me an entry idea
400 |399 |00:45:19 ~-~-> 00:45:22 |that would deliver from there up to there, if this is, in fact, where it's
401 |400 |00:45:22 ~-~-> 00:45:29 |going to happen, where I have to let go of the marketplace and potentially miss
402 |401 |00:45:29 ~-~-> 00:45:34 |a move is waiting for the opening bell, because it could just keep on going up
403 |402 |00:45:34 ~-~-> 00:45:38 |there, and it's a move that I just simply missed, and it's okay. There's
404 |403 |00:45:38 ~-~-> 00:45:46 |lots I don't trade every fluctuation the other day, when we were doing the I was
405 |404 |00:45:46 ~-~-> 00:45:50 |teaching you how to trade volatility pinball, which is just a execution
406 |405 |00:45:50 ~-~-> 00:45:54 |drill, just conditioning yourself, taking every single fair value gap,
407 |406 |00:45:54 ~-~-> 00:45:57 |every single one of them, and running for the nearby high or relative equal
408 |407 |00:45:57 ~-~-> 00:46:01 |high, or the nearby low or relative equal Low. And just doing that all
409 |408 |00:46:01 ~-~-> 00:46:05 |session long until you get around 10 to 15. Or if you got time to sit in front
410 |409 |00:46:05 ~-~-> 00:46:08 |of the charts all day long, take a couple breaks throughout the day, get
411 |410 |00:46:08 ~-~-> 00:46:13 |some circulation in your legs and whatnot. Do as much as you can. Have fun
412 |411 |00:46:13 ~-~-> 00:46:18 |with it. And you watched, let's just say that that was a $10,000 account and
413 |412 |00:46:19 ~-~-> 00:46:26 |trading with one contract. You know that's 38% that was posted doing just a
414 |413 |00:46:26 ~-~-> 00:46:33 |drill. So there's lots of setups that are available. And the NASDAQ is going
415 |414 |00:46:33 ~-~-> 00:46:39 |to move over 650 handles today. It's going to move over 800 handles today.
416 |415 |00:46:41 ~-~-> 00:46:47 |It's going to move 1000 handles today. Before it closes, it's going to move
417 |416 |00:46:47 ~-~-> 00:46:55 |that much now to the to the novice, to neophyte, they hear this is going to go
418 |417 |00:46:55 ~-~-> 00:46:58 |up 1000 handles, and it's already people typing up stuff going in their personal
419 |418 |00:46:58 ~-~-> 00:47:02 |messages, direct messages, I should be saying it's going to move 1000 handles
420 |419 |00:47:02 ~-~-> 00:47:06 |today up. I didn't say that. Others are going to say. ICT said, now that's going
421 |420 |00:47:06 ~-~-> 00:47:11 |to drop 1000 handles today. I didn't say that either. I said, now that's going to
422 |421 |00:47:11 ~-~-> 00:47:18 |move 1000 handles today before it closes. Don't believe me. Be long when
423 |422 |00:47:18 ~-~-> 00:47:25 |it does a 30 handle retracement. Lower. Get squeezed out, close the trade, go
424 |423 |00:47:25 ~-~-> 00:47:29 |short, thinking that's where it's going to go. And then ride a move that goes up
425 |424 |00:47:29 ~-~-> 00:47:35 |for 50 handles. We're already almost at 100 handles. And then it's going to do
426 |425 |00:47:35 ~-~-> 00:47:43 |this back and forth, back and forth all afternoon on a one minute chart on less
427 |426 |00:47:43 ~-~-> 00:47:48 |than one minute chart that's happening all day long. So 1000 handles is easy
428 |427 |00:47:48 ~-~-> 00:47:56 |every single day, even in small Range Days. So there's never a short supply of
429 |428 |00:47:56 ~-~-> 00:48:04 |opportunities, but there is a very short supply of high probability, high yield,
430 |429 |00:48:06 ~-~-> 00:48:15 |low risk setups in a day, those are not ample. There is an ample supply of that.
431 |430 |00:48:15 ~-~-> 00:48:22 |So you have to be a little more selective. And on a day like this, you
432 |431 |00:48:22 ~-~-> 00:48:26 |have to submit that you're going to probably miss a move. I'm not going to
433 |432 |00:48:26 ~-~-> 00:48:30 |chase a day like this. You've seen, I think, two times now since we did 2024
434 |433 |00:48:31 ~-~-> 00:48:37 |mentorship, since I started teaching with these principles, you've watched me
435 |434 |00:48:37 ~-~-> 00:48:42 |sit in the live stream and explain how if it keeps going up, it's going to go
436 |435 |00:48:42 ~-~-> 00:48:47 |without me, and it's okay. I have no anxiety, I have no shame, I don't have
437 |436 |00:48:47 ~-~-> 00:48:52 |any kind of regret. I don't feel like I don't know what I'm doing. I'm not
438 |437 |00:48:52 ~-~-> 00:48:56 |thinking that, you know, oh, the viewers of the stream are going to think my
439 |438 |00:48:56 ~-~-> 00:48:59 |concepts don't work. I don't think that at all. I mean, it doesn't matter,
440 |439 |00:48:59 ~-~-> 00:49:02 |because even when I do trade them, and I'm pushing the button and it works.
441 |440 |00:49:02 ~-~-> 00:49:06 |Some people will still say they don't work. It just happens that I got lucky
442 |441 |00:49:06 ~-~-> 00:49:11 |that day, right? But moves like this, where it's just one sided, it just keeps
443 |442 |00:49:11 ~-~-> 00:49:19 |going, going going, going to me, I'm not trading them, and it's okay, because
444 |443 |00:49:19 ~-~-> 00:49:24 |this isn't the only setup. This isn't the only price run for today. It just
445 |444 |00:49:24 ~-~-> 00:49:29 |means that this is the one that everybody else is going to focus on, and
446 |445 |00:49:29 ~-~-> 00:49:34 |they're going to build a case around whether or not they're a good trader, or
447 |446 |00:49:34 ~-~-> 00:49:37 |anyone that doesn't take that trade and didn't take it with them, they're not
448 |447 |00:49:37 ~-~-> 00:49:42 |good. Or if you didn't take this trade, you're you're a loser. If you didn't get
449 |448 |00:49:42 ~-~-> 00:49:47 |long on this you're full. You know, something by that effect where I'm
450 |449 |00:49:47 ~-~-> 00:49:52 |sitting here trying to be a voice of reason and tell you there's nothing in
451 |450 |00:49:52 ~-~-> 00:50:01 |here that I would have been long on nothing, because the risk is too i. Uh,
452 |451 |00:50:01 ~-~-> 00:50:05 |prevalent. And I don't want to just take risks to sort of sake of saying I got in
453 |452 |00:50:05 ~-~-> 00:50:10 |on Non Farm Payroll, which is what most new traders want to do. They want to be
454 |453 |00:50:10 ~-~-> 00:50:14 |able to say, like the badge, like you're all part of the Boy Scouts, and you get
455 |454 |00:50:14 ~-~-> 00:50:19 |that little badge, a little that merit badge, says I survived Non Farm Payroll.
456 |455 |00:50:19 ~-~-> 00:50:24 |I lost my ass and an arm and a leg. But, you know, I survived Non Farm Payroll.
457 |456 |00:50:26 ~-~-> 00:50:30 |No, thanks. That's not what I want to do. You know, I'm not trying to
458 |457 |00:50:30 ~-~-> 00:50:34 |cultivate that as an aspiration for any of my students. I want you to say, You
459 |458 |00:50:34 ~-~-> 00:50:39 |know what? This is an interesting price delivery. I'm thankful I'm not part of
460 |459 |00:50:39 ~-~-> 00:50:43 |it, because I wouldn't be able to trust where the stop loss would be, because,
461 |460 |00:50:43 ~-~-> 00:50:47 |have you considered that? Where would your stop loss be? Say you wanted to
462 |461 |00:50:47 ~-~-> 00:50:52 |chase this and go along. Where are you going to place a stop loss that you can
463 |462 |00:50:52 ~-~-> 00:50:58 |trust it? It's most likely not going to hit it. I don't have one that I could
464 |463 |00:50:58 ~-~-> 00:51:03 |hang my hat on and say, Yeah, I feel confident. I feel fairly confident that
465 |464 |00:51:03 ~-~-> 00:51:09 |the market couldn't retrace down to get my cell stop based on this study on it's
466 |465 |00:51:09 ~-~-> 00:51:13 |nothing that I can do that with here, because this is a one shot rate from the
467 |466 |00:51:13 ~-~-> 00:51:20 |opening at 830 and it's just gravitating towards where I said, the traders that
468 |467 |00:51:20 ~-~-> 00:51:25 |are holding the profitable positions. Let's go back out for a moment.
469 |468 |00:51:39 ~-~-> 00:51:43 |Remember I was saying to you, most of you that see this big sell side of
470 |469 |00:51:43 ~-~-> 00:51:47 |balance by sign efficiency. Some of you are thinking when we were here that it's
471 |470 |00:51:47 ~-~-> 00:51:51 |going to go up just to go in there. And I said, if they're going to go there,
472 |471 |00:51:51 ~-~-> 00:51:55 |they're not going to be content with just going there. They're going to go to
473 |472 |00:51:55 ~-~-> 00:52:00 |where the positions are protected. What positions anyone that was fortunate
474 |473 |00:52:00 ~-~-> 00:52:03 |enough, but not smart enough. They have already gotten out of their short
475 |474 |00:52:04 ~-~-> 00:52:10 |they're entering inside this area anywhere in here, somebody. We don't
476 |475 |00:52:10 ~-~-> 00:52:15 |need another name. We don't know the need another social security number,
477 |476 |00:52:15 ~-~-> 00:52:19 |where their geographic location is on the spinning globe. It's not a flat
478 |477 |00:52:19 ~-~-> 00:52:25 |earth, by the way. The the consolidation in here, we have to look at someone went
479 |478 |00:52:25 ~-~-> 00:52:33 |short. So to be short and hold the position with a stop loss, it's going to
480 |479 |00:52:33 ~-~-> 00:52:38 |be at least the very minimum above this high. And because this high is slightly
481 |480 |00:52:38 ~-~-> 00:52:42 |lower than that one, this means this is what high probability, relative equal
482 |481 |00:52:42 ~-~-> 00:52:49 |high. So it's a prime candidate for it to be what taken. So don't subscribe
483 |482 |00:52:49 ~-~-> 00:52:53 |just merely because there's an efficiency here and think that, well,
484 |483 |00:52:53 ~-~-> 00:52:56 |this is it. You know, we don't have to worry about anything else, except for it
485 |484 |00:52:56 ~-~-> 00:53:02 |going up to here, because it's already done that. I subscribed to the idea at
486 |485 |00:53:02 ~-~-> 00:53:06 |the beginning of the stream that if it's going to go here, why not just go up
487 |486 |00:53:06 ~-~-> 00:53:10 |here where the actual orders are? Because this isn't going to have a lot
488 |487 |00:53:10 ~-~-> 00:53:15 |of orders just trading back up to that candlesticks low. That's not a large
489 |488 |00:53:15 ~-~-> 00:53:21 |pool of orders. The large pool of orders is resting at this high, in this high,
490 |489 |00:53:21 ~-~-> 00:53:24 |in this general proximity, right here, watch,
491 |490 |00:53:34 ~-~-> 00:53:42 |and that band right there, that's where the actual buy stops are. They're not at
492 |491 |00:53:42 ~-~-> 00:53:47 |the top of the sell side of balance, buy side. Efficiency, the delivery to price
493 |492 |00:53:48 ~-~-> 00:53:52 |is just being offered there for the purpose and mechanism of efficient
494 |493 |00:53:52 ~-~-> 00:53:57 |delivery. It's not that there's a specific number of important buy stops
495 |494 |00:53:57 ~-~-> 00:54:02 |there. The algorithm is just simply trading there. So the pools of the
496 |495 |00:54:02 ~-~-> 00:54:07 |liquidity are absolutely at the highs and the lows. Okay, I had someone send
497 |496 |00:54:07 ~-~-> 00:54:11 |me a comment and said, Are there larger pools of liquidity that are not above
498 |497 |00:54:11 ~-~-> 00:54:17 |old highs or not below old lows? No, there are not. The largest pools of
499 |498 |00:54:17 ~-~-> 00:54:22 |liquidity are always absolutely above old highs, and that's buy side or buy
500 |499 |00:54:22 ~-~-> 00:54:27 |stops, or below old lows, and that sell stops or sell side, anything that
501 |500 |00:54:27 ~-~-> 00:54:30 |anybody tells you outside of that is Grade A bullshit. Okay? They're all
502 |501 |00:54:30 ~-~-> 00:54:33 |trying to twist something and create some kind of new theory, some new
503 |502 |00:54:33 ~-~-> 00:54:38 |science. And they're they're just tossing things against the wall and
504 |503 |00:54:38 ~-~-> 00:54:42 |seeing what sticks, and if they can get a filing that starts having some view
505 |504 |00:54:42 ~-~-> 00:54:46 |about some new thing, you know, that'll give them traction, and then they gotta
506 |505 |00:54:46 ~-~-> 00:54:51 |they have a crowd, and they can milk that cloud at that crowd for money. So
507 |506 |00:54:52 ~-~-> 00:54:55 |again, the market goes up just to reprice for the purpose of efficiently
508 |507 |00:54:55 ~-~-> 00:55:01 |delivering what the counter delivery to this. Down move efficient market
509 |508 |00:55:01 ~-~-> 00:55:05 |delivery is that it needs to create a candlestick that does this. I
510 |509 |00:55:23 ~-~-> 00:55:28 |A down closed candle. For me, that's a Black Candle, and a green candle is a
511 |510 |00:55:28 ~-~-> 00:55:34 |bullish candle on my charts. So it would be like this. It would deliver, in the
512 |511 |00:55:34 ~-~-> 00:55:39 |future, some kind of a delivery where price is being offered going back up.
513 |512 |00:55:39 ~-~-> 00:55:44 |We've seen that here. But that's not the end of the story. You gotta think, Why?
514 |513 |00:55:44 ~-~-> 00:55:48 |Why would it won't even go up here in the first place. Does it add in
515 |514 |00:55:48 ~-~-> 00:55:55 |efficiency? It was only offering sell side delivery. That means movement
516 |515 |00:55:55 ~-~-> 00:56:00 |lower. So if it's going to go lower, and the algorithm does two things, it
517 |516 |00:56:00 ~-~-> 00:56:04 |reprices To engage liquidity. It doesn't know how many stops are above an old
518 |517 |00:56:04 ~-~-> 00:56:09 |high. It does not know how many stops are below an old low. But where there
519 |518 |00:56:09 ~-~-> 00:56:15 |are inefficiencies, where it's just one single candlestick that makes a range in
520 |519 |00:56:15 ~-~-> 00:56:20 |and of itself like an island. This one single candle before this candle where
521 |520 |00:56:20 ~-~-> 00:56:27 |that line is attached to it. This candle sticks low and this candle sticks high.
522 |521 |00:56:28 ~-~-> 00:56:35 |This single candle has an inefficiency. It was sell side delivery, but it's
523 |522 |00:56:35 ~-~-> 00:56:43 |inefficient in buy side. It means it hasn't offered price inside the time.
524 |523 |00:56:44 ~-~-> 00:56:50 |Listen, folks, the time between this candles high, that candles low, the
525 |524 |00:56:50 ~-~-> 00:56:56 |interval of time needs to be rebalanced with price, so price will go higher on
526 |525 |00:56:56 ~-~-> 00:57:00 |the buy side delivery. It means over overlapping. The same price range
527 |526 |00:57:00 ~-~-> 00:57:04 |between this candle is low. This candle is high. You are expecting in the future
528 |527 |00:57:05 ~-~-> 00:57:09 |a pass break, back up over top of the single candle. And once it does that and
529 |528 |00:57:09 ~-~-> 00:57:16 |it touches this candle is low. This has been efficiently delivered. That is not
530 |529 |00:57:16 ~-~-> 00:57:21 |a balanced price range. It just means it's been efficiently delivered. So back
531 |530 |00:57:21 ~-~-> 00:57:28 |to the discussion about why that's simply not enough. The market going into
532 |531 |00:57:28 ~-~-> 00:57:35 |this area and offering efficient price and not taking a ride into these stops,
533 |532 |00:57:36 ~-~-> 00:57:41 |to me, would be a rather interesting observation today, because this is where
534 |533 |00:57:41 ~-~-> 00:57:48 |the actual orders are. There are no orders essentially, that are
535 |534 |00:57:51 ~-~-> 00:57:55 |outnumbering. Let's say it that way, the actual liquidity that rests in these
536 |535 |00:57:55 ~-~-> 00:58:00 |highs the market driven down into that target we had in the blue shaded area.
537 |536 |00:58:00 ~-~-> 00:58:03 |It's the weekly buy, some balance outside efficiency. Balance, outside
538 |537 |00:58:03 ~-~-> 00:58:07 |efficiency. It delivered that, and it delivered it quickly, and then we did
539 |538 |00:58:07 ~-~-> 00:58:12 |not make anything lower. So the individuals that were sitting with the
540 |539 |00:58:12 ~-~-> 00:58:16 |largest form of profit that's still open, if they're holding the shorts,
541 |540 |00:58:17 ~-~-> 00:58:20 |their stop loss orders are here. Not all of them, most of them already been
542 |541 |00:58:20 ~-~-> 00:58:27 |stopped out with this return back to that high, this spike taking out that
543 |542 |00:58:27 ~-~-> 00:58:32 |high, and then obviously the non front payroll today took out that high, but
544 |543 |00:58:32 ~-~-> 00:58:40 |we're above this inefficiency now, right here. So it goes without saying that non
545 |544 |00:58:40 ~-~-> 00:58:48 |prom payroll is used to disrupt what's already in play, what's in play, the
546 |545 |00:58:48 ~-~-> 00:58:56 |shorts from here. Now, it could have very easily from here dropped down,
547 |546 |00:58:57 ~-~-> 00:59:03 |disrupted these and then made this the daily run I would have rather seen that,
548 |547 |00:59:03 ~-~-> 00:59:09 |to be honest with you. But as it is, we just started right at 830 and just
549 |548 |00:59:09 ~-~-> 00:59:13 |started running rate for this inefficiency. It's no longer
550 |549 |00:59:13 ~-~-> 00:59:19 |inefficient. Now. It's been efficiently delivered. It is not a balanced price
551 |550 |00:59:19 ~-~-> 00:59:24 |range yet, so we still have to submit to the idea that there might be going to
552 |551 |00:59:24 ~-~-> 00:59:31 |take us up into here, so it can keep us real close to where the inefficiency
553 |552 |00:59:31 ~-~-> 00:59:36 |high of the city and the city is this. I mean, let me draw it out in case there
554 |553 |00:59:36 ~-~-> 00:59:37 |are new people here. I'm
555 |554 |00:59:49 ~-~-> 00:59:55 |this is the inefficiency, and you can see how we already painted right over
556 |555 |00:59:55 ~-~-> 01:00:05 |top of this individual candlestick. And. That one right here, and then we have
557 |556 |01:00:05 ~-~-> 01:00:11 |all this delivery right back over top of it. You see that this is usually seen
558 |557 |01:00:11 ~-~-> 01:00:17 |with one single candle, but in here it took two. It's fine, whatever it took.
559 |558 |01:00:17 ~-~-> 01:00:23 |Time wise, to make this city. You're always anticipating price to do the same
560 |559 |01:00:23 ~-~-> 01:00:32 |thing time wise. So between the interval of this candlesticks low to this
561 |560 |01:00:32 ~-~-> 01:00:38 |candlesticks high, that same one single candle, you're always anticipating the
562 |561 |01:00:38 ~-~-> 01:00:43 |delivery to be the same type of delivery on the other side. So that tells, it
563 |562 |01:00:43 ~-~-> 01:00:48 |tells you a whole lot, teaches you what speed and magnitude whenever you see me
564 |563 |01:00:48 ~-~-> 01:00:53 |talk about when I'm in a live stream, or if I'm in a live execution, and I'm
565 |564 |01:00:53 ~-~-> 01:00:56 |recording the trade, and I'm annotating by typing out what I think, and I'll
566 |565 |01:00:56 ~-~-> 01:01:01 |say, Okay, I expect to see speed in distance, or speed and magnitude. I want
567 |566 |01:01:01 ~-~-> 01:01:08 |to see speed. I want to see large candles. Now it's underneath this idea
568 |567 |01:01:08 ~-~-> 01:01:14 |where it's overlapping something that's inefficient. So if the inefficiency was
569 |568 |01:01:14 ~-~-> 01:01:19 |manifested in the sense that it's been delivered to the sell side quickly and
570 |569 |01:01:19 ~-~-> 01:01:26 |sudden, it goes without saying that you should see buy side driven quickly to
571 |570 |01:01:26 ~-~-> 01:01:31 |reprice over top of this. Now that's not always the same, because sometimes
572 |571 |01:01:31 ~-~-> 01:01:36 |you'll see that the market will go up a little bit and come back down, go up a
573 |572 |01:01:36 ~-~-> 01:01:40 |little bit and come back down, go up a little bit and come back down, go up a
574 |573 |01:01:40 ~-~-> 01:01:44 |little bit and come back down. And just keeps grinding like that. That's high
575 |574 |01:01:44 ~-~-> 01:01:51 |resistance inside in inefficiency. Those are the times where you're going to get
576 |575 |01:01:51 ~-~-> 01:01:56 |smacked around and it's just they're holding it back. Because in normal
577 |576 |01:01:56 ~-~-> 01:02:02 |delivery, it should be single pass, inefficient, single pass, quickly and
578 |577 |01:02:02 ~-~-> 01:02:07 |delivered. But if you ever see inside of an inefficiency like this, and it goes
579 |578 |01:02:07 ~-~-> 01:02:10 |up in a little sputtering, little bit of move back and forth, back and forth,
580 |579 |01:02:10 ~-~-> 01:02:13 |that's a manual intervention as well. Why? Because we're inside of an
581 |580 |01:02:13 ~-~-> 01:02:19 |inefficiency or gap, and price is doing what it's being held back stagnant, even
582 |581 |01:02:19 ~-~-> 01:02:24 |though it's still pricing over and over and over and over higher highs. Just
583 |582 |01:02:24 ~-~-> 01:02:26 |realize that you're going to be in a trade that's going to have a whole lot
584 |583 |01:02:26 ~-~-> 01:02:31 |more retracements. So if you're long and say it's not Non Farm Payroll, you
585 |584 |01:02:31 ~-~-> 01:02:36 |should not be trying to chase or Trailer Stop Loss up, just lock in cover costs.
586 |585 |01:02:36 ~-~-> 01:02:39 |Give yourself something that's a nice dinner out in case you get stopped out
587 |586 |01:02:39 ~-~-> 01:02:44 |and just let it go. It's hard to hold those types of trades. It really is, but
588 |587 |01:02:44 ~-~-> 01:02:48 |you just got to do it that way, otherwise you're going to be more prone
589 |588 |01:02:48 ~-~-> 01:02:53 |to being stopped out. So we're not subscribing. I'm not trying to tell you
590 |589 |01:02:53 ~-~-> 01:02:56 |to subscribe to the idea just because we go here, we're done, because we've
591 |590 |01:02:56 ~-~-> 01:03:02 |already done what we went above it. So this is where the actual orders are,
592 |591 |01:03:04 ~-~-> 01:03:11 |right here. If you have, like book map, or if you have something similar, I know
593 |592 |01:03:11 ~-~-> 01:03:15 |Matt cohort has something he does that's along the same lines. It's like a
594 |593 |01:03:15 ~-~-> 01:03:20 |liquidity map or whatever. If you use that, take a look at it and take a look
595 |594 |01:03:20 ~-~-> 01:03:28 |at the the highs here and here, and start watching what those, what those
596 |595 |01:03:28 ~-~-> 01:03:33 |price levels have on those types of tools. I'm saying, you know, before we
597 |596 |01:03:33 ~-~-> 01:03:42 |had the the opening at 830 there, that this was minor, and this is primary. And
598 |597 |01:03:42 ~-~-> 01:03:47 |also stated that Who's In Who's in profit right now at the time of 830 the
599 |598 |01:03:47 ~-~-> 01:03:52 |shorts are that's what the largest move lower. We haven't made new ground. Lower
600 |599 |01:03:52 ~-~-> 01:03:57 |than that. We've consolidated. So don't just think that we're going up here to
601 |600 |01:03:58 ~-~-> 01:04:02 |rebalance this. If we're going up here, I'm going to submit to the idea that
602 |601 |01:04:02 ~-~-> 01:04:08 |they're going up there to cannibalize these position holders that are short,
603 |602 |01:04:08 ~-~-> 01:04:13 |that have their stop losses here, and who would have stops up there, deeper
604 |603 |01:04:13 ~-~-> 01:04:17 |pockets than you and I, large institutions, large institutional
605 |604 |01:04:17 ~-~-> 01:04:21 |investors. They're not in the business of trailing their stop loss. They don't,
606 |605 |01:04:21 ~-~-> 01:04:25 |they don't look at okay, it's dropped down 10 handles. Let me, let me move my
607 |606 |01:04:25 ~-~-> 01:04:30 |stop to break even. That's not what they're doing. So they're going to hold
608 |607 |01:04:30 ~-~-> 01:04:36 |on to positions with stops way outside the range of in their in their view,
609 |608 |01:04:36 ~-~-> 01:04:39 |it's just static price action. They don't want to get chopped up in a normal
610 |609 |01:04:39 ~-~-> 01:04:44 |delivery of volatility, so when they put their positions on, they leave their
611 |610 |01:04:44 ~-~-> 01:04:49 |core protective stops above their entry. So that way, they're not needing to have
612 |611 |01:04:49 ~-~-> 01:04:54 |an analyst or a Trade Manager babysitting every fluctuation over
613 |612 |01:04:54 ~-~-> 01:04:59 |price, because they're managing billions of dollars, so you're worrying about
614 |613 |01:04:59 ~-~-> 01:05:04 |your one. Lot, your micro lot, you know, on a funded account where, you know, if
615 |614 |01:05:04 ~-~-> 01:05:09 |you lose, you lost the activation fee or whatever it is that you make you pay. In
616 |615 |01:05:09 ~-~-> 01:05:15 |this case, they stand to lose billions of dollars, millions of dollars at the
617 |616 |01:05:15 ~-~-> 01:05:21 |minimum, right? So my eye is trying to look for evidence that it's going to
618 |617 |01:05:21 ~-~-> 01:05:26 |continue to drive to here, and we're close to the opening bell. We're almost
619 |618 |01:05:26 ~-~-> 01:05:30 |at 10 minutes after so we have 20 minutes or so away being right here.
620 |619 |01:05:31 ~-~-> 01:05:38 |They could use the opening range, the first 30 minutes to drive up into this
621 |620 |01:05:38 ~-~-> 01:05:44 |liquidity here, and then take in an account what, what's going to be here.
622 |621 |01:05:44 ~-~-> 01:05:48 |When we look at record trading hours, an enormous gap. Remember, we're sitting
623 |622 |01:05:48 ~-~-> 01:05:52 |right here above this inefficiency. Price is sitting right there in
624 |623 |01:05:52 ~-~-> 01:05:57 |electronic trading hours, and this is previous day's settlement price down
625 |624 |01:05:57 ~-~-> 01:06:03 |here. So we have a very large gap. So if we're going to be in close proximity to
626 |625 |01:06:03 ~-~-> 01:06:07 |those relative equal highs, which is the primary buy side, which you can't see it
627 |626 |01:06:07 ~-~-> 01:06:13 |here, notice that, but we're sitting right here based on actual electronic
628 |627 |01:06:13 ~-~-> 01:06:17 |trading hours right now. The chart shows regular trading hours. So this is how we
629 |628 |01:06:17 ~-~-> 01:06:23 |determine what our gap is, our opening range gap looking at electronic trading
630 |629 |01:06:23 ~-~-> 01:06:29 |hours. We're sitting right here at the top of it. So is it unreasonable to
631 |630 |01:06:30 ~-~-> 01:06:35 |anticipate them keeping price in this general area and then running it as a
632 |631 |01:06:35 ~-~-> 01:06:43 |Judas swing on regular trading hours? So words, let me, let me show you. Like
633 |632 |01:06:43 ~-~-> 01:06:48 |this. Right now we see prices sitting essentially right here.
634 |633 |01:06:53 ~-~-> 01:06:58 |It's the first time a crayons, folks, I'm sorry, the the price right now in
635 |634 |01:06:58 ~-~-> 01:07:02 |electronic trading hours, it's there. And this line, even though you don't see
636 |635 |01:07:02 ~-~-> 01:07:07 |the relative equal highs, because it's booked on electronic trading hours this
637 |636 |01:07:07 ~-~-> 01:07:12 |level, we could see it do this inside of regular trading hours like this. We
638 |637 |01:07:12 ~-~-> 01:07:22 |could see it deliver a run up to here. Then let's assume, and I'm not saying
639 |638 |01:07:22 ~-~-> 01:07:31 |this is the case, but let's assume that this is the gap, and we take the
640 |639 |01:07:31 ~-~-> 01:07:33 |quadrants off, and we're just going to look at the
641 |640 |01:07:40 ~-~-> 01:07:41 |trying to find the
642 |641 |01:07:47 ~-~-> 01:07:52 |there it is. Gotta pick some ugly color that's the mid, mid gap, that yellow
643 |642 |01:07:52 ~-~-> 01:07:56 |line. So assuming that we opened here, and we we're not opening there, because
644 |643 |01:07:56 ~-~-> 01:08:00 |we still have several minutes before it actually opens at 930 but just play
645 |644 |01:08:00 ~-~-> 01:08:04 |devil's advocate and say it opens at this price right here and where we had
646 |645 |01:08:04 ~-~-> 01:08:10 |the previous settlement price down here at 414, yesterday. This is mid gap. So
647 |646 |01:08:10 ~-~-> 01:08:15 |it could open trade up, bust out the relative equal highs in electronic
648 |647 |01:08:15 ~-~-> 01:08:27 |training hours. That's this I'm yeah. So open here. Rally up, disrupt the stops,
649 |648 |01:08:27 ~-~-> 01:08:33 |accumulate those stops, then drop down to mid gap, right there, and then we'll
650 |649 |01:08:33 ~-~-> 01:08:36 |see if it wants to go low or not. Notice that it's also when it goes to mid gap,
651 |650 |01:08:37 ~-~-> 01:08:41 |it's basically coming to the high of all this consolidation. It's going to take a
652 |651 |01:08:41 ~-~-> 01:08:47 |real move to get through all this. Not to say it can, but that's what, that's
653 |652 |01:08:47 ~-~-> 01:08:51 |what I see in price right now, in the potential scenario that may unfold based
654 |653 |01:08:51 ~-~-> 01:08:55 |on what I see here, I don't think they're going to let these individuals
655 |654 |01:08:55 ~-~-> 01:08:59 |off the hook. I think they're, they're, that's the people in play. And if you go
656 |655 |01:08:59 ~-~-> 01:09:03 |back and listen to the beginning of stream. I was mentioning that Non Farm
657 |656 |01:09:03 ~-~-> 01:09:11 |Payroll it It's this. It's a disruptive event. It attacks anyone that has the
658 |657 |01:09:11 ~-~-> 01:09:14 |present profitable sentiment. That's these individuals that are short up
659 |658 |01:09:14 ~-~-> 01:09:18 |here. And look how close we are to them. And then you have the normal volatility
660 |659 |01:09:18 ~-~-> 01:09:23 |in the first 30 minutes of trading at 930, to 10 o'clock, it's not
661 |660 |01:09:23 ~-~-> 01:09:27 |unreasonable to anticipate him, to pump it up, another hand, other handles, to
662 |661 |01:09:27 ~-~-> 01:09:31 |knock these individuals out. And then the real interesting study is, what do
663 |662 |01:09:31 ~-~-> 01:09:38 |we do then? Because we have a huge gap that 70% of time number might not be the
664 |663 |01:09:38 ~-~-> 01:09:42 |first 30 minutes, if it goes down here at all today, it might take a little bit
665 |664 |01:09:42 ~-~-> 01:09:50 |more time to get time to get down here. So just intermusings, how I internalize
666 |665 |01:09:50 ~-~-> 01:09:55 |what I'm expecting, how I would look at it today, and it'll get this business
667 |666 |01:09:55 ~-~-> 01:09:55 |off here I'm.
668 |667 |01:10:15 ~-~-> 01:10:22 |If that was confusing to you, just know that it's not it's not it's not that
669 |668 |01:10:22 ~-~-> 01:10:27 |difficult. But toggling between electronic trading hours. Electronic
670 |669 |01:10:27 ~-~-> 01:10:37 |trading hours is a 6pm to 5pm and then regular trading hours is 9:30am all, all
671 |670 |01:10:37 ~-~-> 01:10:47 |local time, New York, 9:30am to 4:14pm, and the opening range gap is always
672 |671 |01:10:47 ~-~-> 01:10:53 |defined by regular trading hours, which is this. And you see, we have an
673 |672 |01:10:53 ~-~-> 01:11:04 |enormous gap in the making. So opening range, I'm anticipating maybe a little
674 |673 |01:11:04 ~-~-> 01:11:08 |bit of a drop down, get people thinking, Oh yeah, it's, it's selling off because
675 |674 |01:11:08 ~-~-> 01:11:15 |it filled in this, this gap. It's liquidity void, which it's not there was
676 |675 |01:11:15 ~-~-> 01:11:20 |trading in here. So it makes, it's not a liquidity void, but the small little
677 |676 |01:11:20 ~-~-> 01:11:25 |drop down, and then run it right up into here that'll get the Street Money want
678 |677 |01:11:25 ~-~-> 01:11:29 |to chase it even more, buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, buying, buying,
679 |678 |01:11:29 ~-~-> 01:11:34 |buying, and then when it gets into here, smart money could sell short against all
680 |679 |01:11:34 ~-~-> 01:11:39 |these buy stops that'll become a flood of liquidity for willing buyers at a
681 |680 |01:11:39 ~-~-> 01:11:46 |high price, willing buyers at a higher price, where smart money could use that
682 |681 |01:11:46 ~-~-> 01:11:52 |to sell to them, and then they could ride down into a gap closure, half the
683 |682 |01:11:52 ~-~-> 01:11:56 |gap, three quarters the gap, if it completely wipes out and goes down. I
684 |683 |01:11:56 ~-~-> 01:12:03 |mean, anything can happen. Anything can happen. So just know that. That's what
685 |684 |01:12:03 ~-~-> 01:12:08 |Non Farm Payroll. It complicates the decision making, so you have to really
686 |685 |01:12:08 ~-~-> 01:12:17 |know a lot more than you think you should to navigate it well. Now contrast
687 |686 |01:12:17 ~-~-> 01:12:21 |everything I just said here versus when we're looking at a normal any run in the
688 |687 |01:12:21 ~-~-> 01:12:24 |middle day where we have a small, little gap, okay, this is where the gap is.
689 |688 |01:12:24 ~-~-> 01:12:28 |Wait for the first present, the fair value gap. It's pretty straightforward.
690 |689 |01:12:28 ~-~-> 01:12:32 |The comments are basically saying 2024, mentorship has made everything come
691 |690 |01:12:32 ~-~-> 01:12:36 |together, connected the dots. I can see this now. I can anticipate it. It's,
692 |691 |01:12:36 ~-~-> 01:12:42 |it's, it's bridged all these gaps in my understanding, and now you're finding
693 |692 |01:12:42 ~-~-> 01:12:46 |setups that are much more consistent, and you're comfortable. That's the main
694 |693 |01:12:46 ~-~-> 01:12:49 |thing. You're comfortable. You're not fearful, you're not anxious, and you're
695 |694 |01:12:49 ~-~-> 01:12:53 |very calm when you're in the trades. Now, have you noticed that that's what
696 |695 |01:12:53 ~-~-> 01:12:57 |mentorship is like, that's learning something from someone that knows what
697 |696 |01:12:57 ~-~-> 01:13:01 |they're doing, and that things that work in the marketplace, not contrive things,
698 |697 |01:13:01 ~-~-> 01:13:05 |not conjecture things, things that are actually based in, rooted on the truth.
699 |698 |01:13:06 ~-~-> 01:13:10 |Now contrast all those things with what I just outlined here for nonprofit role.
700 |699 |01:13:10 ~-~-> 01:13:15 |It's like, wow, this is a lot, exactly. So if you're a brand new student, can
701 |700 |01:13:15 ~-~-> 01:13:21 |you see how this could quickly drown you? It's difficult, and it's difficult
702 |701 |01:13:21 ~-~-> 01:13:24 |for me. I ain't gonna lie. I'm gonna tell you straight up, these are very,
703 |702 |01:13:24 ~-~-> 01:13:29 |very challenging conditions, because I can see multiple scenarios that could
704 |703 |01:13:29 ~-~-> 01:13:34 |very easily be used, whereas any other given day, I can see how, okay, yeah,
705 |704 |01:13:34 ~-~-> 01:13:38 |they obviously pump this into a premium. Our large opening gap is going to go 70%
706 |705 |01:13:39 ~-~-> 01:13:43 |likely back to mid gap in the first 30 minutes. That's your first initial bias.
707 |706 |01:13:43 ~-~-> 01:13:47 |So you can submit to that idea. If there's a scalp, you can take that. But
708 |707 |01:13:47 ~-~-> 01:13:51 |once it gets the mid gap, then we have to determine, does it want to continue
709 |708 |01:13:51 ~-~-> 01:13:55 |in the direction of the gap, or is it a complete gap closure? And then once it
710 |709 |01:13:55 ~-~-> 01:13:59 |closes the gap, does it go below the gap? If it's a premium gap, then use the
711 |710 |01:13:59 ~-~-> 01:14:03 |bottom of the gap as resistance or a premium, and then sell off and do a
712 |711 |01:14:03 ~-~-> 01:14:11 |multiple of that opening range gap of two to three standard deviations. So
713 |712 |01:14:11 ~-~-> 01:14:17 |your understanding is gradually being increased. Caleb, but you have to have
714 |713 |01:14:17 ~-~-> 01:14:21 |the willingness to say, I'm not interested in this day, Dad, that's the
715 |714 |01:14:21 ~-~-> 01:14:24 |answer I'm looking for from you. That is the answer that I want to hear from you.
716 |715 |01:14:24 ~-~-> 01:14:30 |I want to hear say, You know what I can do without it. And that's maturity.
717 |716 |01:14:30 ~-~-> 01:14:34 |That's a hard thing to sell to a new trader, new student, because they see
718 |717 |01:14:34 ~-~-> 01:14:41 |these big candles and invites them like a candy bar, like I want, that I want,
719 |718 |01:14:41 ~-~-> 01:14:45 |that I'm not satisfied with a consistent 25 to 30 handles every single day. I'm
720 |719 |01:14:45 ~-~-> 01:14:50 |not satisfied with that. I want to take chance, and the risk is not that
721 |720 |01:14:50 ~-~-> 01:14:56 |imperative to me as a deterrent to not want to trade this day. That that's the
722 |721 |01:14:56 ~-~-> 01:15:01 |usual dynamic in the mind of a new trader. You. As they chase the
723 |722 |01:15:01 ~-~-> 01:15:05 |excitement around it, they think they actually believe that they can be in
724 |723 |01:15:05 ~-~-> 01:15:09 |this move beforehand and be right enough times and survive it. And it's it's not
725 |724 |01:15:09 ~-~-> 01:15:16 |the case. It's not the case. Man. So we're going to see here in about 10
726 |725 |01:15:16 ~-~-> 01:15:25 |minutes, how the market uses this information. I'm in these next few
727 |726 |01:15:25 ~-~-> 01:15:35 |minutes, I'm going to talk about Asia, when, when we look at the daily ranges,
728 |727 |01:15:35 ~-~-> 01:15:41 |okay? And I'm going to take our attention away from all the markups
729 |728 |01:15:41 ~-~-> 01:15:46 |here. I want to delete them and we'll come back to it in a second. We'll come
730 |729 |01:15:46 ~-~-> 01:15:50 |back to about three minutes before the opening bell, but we'll remove the
731 |730 |01:15:50 ~-~-> 01:15:52 |drawings and go to a daily chart. I
732 |731 |01:15:59 ~-~-> 01:16:07 |want you to think about how when the market doesn't have a economic calendar
733 |732 |01:16:07 ~-~-> 01:16:15 |event that's a medium or high impact news driver during the 830 to 10 o'clock
734 |733 |01:16:15 ~-~-> 01:16:19 |crude oil inventory is usually coming around 1030 they're Not really all
735 |734 |01:16:19 ~-~-> 01:16:24 |impactful to indices or inequities like that's really not, that's not a factor.
736 |735 |01:16:25 ~-~-> 01:16:29 |But usually you'll have a 10 O'Clock News driver, there'll be a 945 news
737 |736 |01:16:29 ~-~-> 01:16:38 |driver, there'll be a 930 there'll be a 830 or an 845 news driver, maybe a 915
738 |737 |01:16:39 ~-~-> 01:16:43 |something will come out, but somebody's speaking a speech or whatnot, usually
739 |738 |01:16:43 ~-~-> 01:16:49 |anywhere between 830 and 10 o'clock. That's like your your time when some
740 |739 |01:16:49 ~-~-> 01:16:55 |kind of an external stimulus will come into the marketplace and be used as a
741 |740 |01:16:55 ~-~-> 01:16:59 |smoke screen to mask what the market makers are doing, whether
742 |741 |01:16:59 ~-~-> 01:17:05 |algorithmically or may you intervene, let's assume that there's nothing on the
743 |742 |01:17:05 ~-~-> 01:17:11 |economic counter going into the next morning. Okay, and also, let's assume
744 |743 |01:17:11 ~-~-> 01:17:17 |that in the last hour of trading, the market trades down and cleans up a pool
745 |744 |01:17:17 ~-~-> 01:17:23 |of liquidity below relative equal lows, or below a significant low that's been
746 |745 |01:17:23 ~-~-> 01:17:29 |in the the charts for several days. So during the last hour, they trade down.
747 |746 |01:17:30 ~-~-> 01:17:34 |Say when the market's bullish. It does this in the last hour, so it engages the
748 |747 |01:17:34 ~-~-> 01:17:38 |sell side, below a old low, or relative equal lows that's been in the market for
749 |748 |01:17:38 ~-~-> 01:17:44 |a few days, but they stop it right at the market close, once that sell side's
750 |749 |01:17:44 ~-~-> 01:17:53 |been taken. That is usually a wonderful time to anticipate, at 6pm when the
751 |750 |01:17:53 ~-~-> 01:17:59 |market starts trading again, because at 5pm assuming we're not on a Friday, at
752 |751 |01:17:59 ~-~-> 01:18:07 |6pm they'll start the new electronic trading hours session. Wait until around
753 |752 |01:18:07 ~-~-> 01:18:17 |650, to 710, and you can start looking for reasons to be long then, and look
754 |753 |01:18:17 ~-~-> 01:18:21 |for setups to trade into the 10 o'clock hour. Not that they all last that long,
755 |754 |01:18:22 ~-~-> 01:18:28 |but that's the usual protocol I use when I'm trading at Asia. With a high degree
756 |755 |01:18:28 ~-~-> 01:18:32 |of probability that you're going to have a nice Asian range that last hour of
757 |756 |01:18:32 ~-~-> 01:18:37 |trading. It's got to upset some kind of liquidity and then stay there into the
758 |757 |01:18:37 ~-~-> 01:18:42 |close. It cannot go down below, relative equal low or singular low, and then
759 |758 |01:18:42 ~-~-> 01:18:47 |start rallying in the last hour. That doesn't give you the same high
760 |759 |01:18:47 ~-~-> 01:18:52 |probability, because what is actually happening is, in those instances, the
761 |760 |01:18:52 ~-~-> 01:18:56 |last hour is being implemented for smart money to accumulate, the cell stops and
762 |761 |01:18:56 ~-~-> 01:18:59 |they're just holding it there. And you'll see live streamers that are
763 |762 |01:18:59 ~-~-> 01:19:03 |expecting a lot more protracted move lower, when then all they're doing is,
764 |763 |01:19:03 ~-~-> 01:19:07 |there's they're just keeping price there, and they're letting the last flow
765 |764 |01:19:07 ~-~-> 01:19:13 |of orders coming in, which is a large influx, they're just scooping them all
766 |765 |01:19:13 ~-~-> 01:19:21 |up, buying, accumulating. And then they know that in Asia, after the first 50
767 |766 |01:19:21 ~-~-> 01:19:25 |minutes of trading, the algorithms macro will start spooling price, and then
768 |767 |01:19:25 ~-~-> 01:19:28 |it'll tell them that they're on side or offside. And then the market, when it
769 |768 |01:19:28 ~-~-> 01:19:32 |starts to rally, then they take, they take every single discount array to
770 |769 |01:19:32 ~-~-> 01:19:38 |accumulate more long positions going into the 10 o'clock hour. So if you look
771 |770 |01:19:38 ~-~-> 01:19:45 |at some of the the better days where Asia has had really nice price runs.
772 |771 |01:19:46 ~-~-> 01:19:51 |Study By contrast, the last hour of trading in the index, and you'll see
773 |772 |01:19:51 ~-~-> 01:19:56 |clues that you didn't see there before. That is the largest degree of
774 |773 |01:19:56 ~-~-> 01:20:01 |probability for trading Asian session. To be, you know, it's going to be a
775 |774 |01:20:01 ~-~-> 01:20:05 |good, good day to trade. It does not mean every single Asian session is a
776 |775 |01:20:05 ~-~-> 01:20:11 |good trading opportunity. It's not, and I said this at nauseum, but the the
777 |776 |01:20:11 ~-~-> 01:20:15 |protocol I use is it has to be a day where there isn't going to be any kind
778 |777 |01:20:15 ~-~-> 01:20:19 |of high impact news drivers or medium impact news drivers, no speeches, no
779 |778 |01:20:19 ~-~-> 01:20:23 |nothing in the economic calendar between 830 and 10 o'clock the next New York
780 |779 |01:20:23 ~-~-> 01:20:27 |session, because there's an absence of that. They're going to use many times
781 |780 |01:20:27 ~-~-> 01:20:31 |the Asian session as the low of the day when you're bullish or the high of the
782 |781 |01:20:31 ~-~-> 01:20:38 |day when you're bearish. And if you look at the the daily chart here, you can
783 |782 |01:20:38 ~-~-> 01:20:46 |toggle back and forth, and you can see how the days close and open are real
784 |783 |01:20:46 ~-~-> 01:20:50 |close to one another, not all the time, to kind of find, if you're looking at
785 |784 |01:20:50 ~-~-> 01:20:55 |how the your charts show in the settlement, but generally you're seeing
786 |785 |01:20:55 ~-~-> 01:21:00 |the bodies are very close to what The previous bodies closed or opened that
787 |786 |01:21:00 ~-~-> 01:21:08 |previously. So that indicates there's something going on, but not always is it
788 |787 |01:21:08 ~-~-> 01:21:13 |the low of the day. You see how close we are in proximity here, between the
789 |788 |01:21:13 ~-~-> 01:21:18 |previous close and where we opened. But we had all of this, and we had this in
790 |789 |01:21:18 ~-~-> 01:21:22 |here, so you have to filter out all that. How do you do that? By focusing on
791 |790 |01:21:22 ~-~-> 01:21:29 |the sessions Asia, seven o'clock to nine. That's your sweet spot. That's
792 |791 |01:21:29 ~-~-> 01:21:34 |your that's your little working area. Okay? And it could, it can extend its
793 |792 |01:21:34 ~-~-> 01:21:38 |price runs to 10 o'clock, but usually when we get in 10 o'clock, just square
794 |793 |01:21:38 ~-~-> 01:21:42 |your positions, or if you're trading with the pretense that it's going to be
795 |794 |01:21:42 ~-~-> 01:21:48 |a continuation on the daily chart, and you want to capture large range, and
796 |795 |01:21:48 ~-~-> 01:21:54 |there's no economic news medium impact or high impact or speeches at 830 to 10
797 |796 |01:21:54 ~-~-> 01:21:58 |o'clock the next New York session. Take some profit off at 10 o'clock, but leave
798 |797 |01:21:58 ~-~-> 01:22:04 |a runner some form of position still on it. And you'll see many times that Asia
799 |798 |01:22:04 ~-~-> 01:22:09 |will start rallying up, and it'll have this uncharacteristic movement. It's
800 |799 |01:22:09 ~-~-> 01:22:13 |like, where did this come from? Where did this come from? A couple weeks back,
801 |800 |01:22:13 ~-~-> 01:22:17 |I bought radon market on clothes, and it was doing very similar things. I did
802 |801 |01:22:17 ~-~-> 01:22:20 |this. I shared this with my private students, and in Asia. Just kept on
803 |802 |01:22:20 ~-~-> 01:22:27 |going higher, higher, higher, higher, and it looked very similar to what we've
804 |803 |01:22:27 ~-~-> 01:22:34 |seen so far on this. It was just doing something like this. It's like everybody
805 |804 |01:22:34 ~-~-> 01:22:38 |was sending me comments in the videos, they were sending me emails. What's
806 |805 |01:22:38 ~-~-> 01:22:41 |going on Asia? What happened in Asia? And what I just explained to you is what
807 |806 |01:22:41 ~-~-> 01:22:46 |happens. That's what happens. The smart money uses the market on clothes to
808 |807 |01:22:46 ~-~-> 01:22:52 |enter, and then they wait for Asia to start, and then at 650, to 710, that
809 |808 |01:22:52 ~-~-> 01:22:57 |first macro it better start sending price in direction, higher if they're
810 |809 |01:22:57 ~-~-> 01:23:00 |long. And as it does that, every single time it comes back down to a short term
811 |810 |01:23:00 ~-~-> 01:23:04 |discount, they're accumulating anymore. And what will happen is Asia will run
812 |811 |01:23:04 ~-~-> 01:23:07 |all the way up into Midnight. Midnight, you'll have small, you know, small,
813 |812 |01:23:07 ~-~-> 01:23:11 |little retracement, but then London just keeps on powering up, or it'll
814 |813 |01:23:11 ~-~-> 01:23:18 |consolidate all through a messy London. And Asia was the real run. London is a
815 |814 |01:23:18 ~-~-> 01:23:22 |consolidation. And then in New York, you get another stage of what was happening
816 |815 |01:23:22 ~-~-> 01:23:26 |in Asia. That's the set, that's the first measured move. And then you'll see
817 |816 |01:23:26 ~-~-> 01:23:30 |the same thing repeated during the New York session, and you'll be up 700 500
818 |817 |01:23:30 ~-~-> 01:23:34 |handles on the on the day based on 6pm previous electronic trading hours,
819 |818 |01:23:34 ~-~-> 01:23:42 |opening price to whatever the high of the day is that's formed in New York. So
820 |819 |01:23:42 ~-~-> 01:23:45 |as a reminder, that's not an everyday occurrence. That's not something that
821 |820 |01:23:45 ~-~-> 01:23:50 |tells you that you have a good trading session in Asia like that all the time,
822 |821 |01:23:50 ~-~-> 01:23:55 |but there are opportunities that you can trade Asia between 650 to 10 o'clock,
823 |822 |01:23:55 ~-~-> 01:24:04 |because 650 is when the first macro starts to spool and the 750 to 810 in my
824 |823 |01:24:04 ~-~-> 01:24:10 |opinion, is better, because sometimes they can get a delayed start. So if
825 |824 |01:24:10 ~-~-> 01:24:17 |there is no obvious run on price at the 650 to 710 macro in Asia, the odds of
826 |825 |01:24:17 ~-~-> 01:24:22 |the 750 to 810 macro presenting something really nice for Asia, even if
827 |826 |01:24:22 ~-~-> 01:24:27 |it is going to be a high impact or news impact session in the New York session
828 |827 |01:24:27 ~-~-> 01:24:31 |later on, you'll still have a really nice opportunity to trade in Asia. It
829 |828 |01:24:31 ~-~-> 01:24:34 |doesn't mean you're gonna Hunter handles, but you can get anywhere
830 |829 |01:24:34 ~-~-> 01:24:38 |between 25 and 40 handles in Asia. When it's like that, when the when the 650,
831 |830 |01:24:39 ~-~-> 01:24:46 |the 710, macro, is silent. It's sitting still. The 750, to 810, macro in Asia is
832 |831 |01:24:46 ~-~-> 01:24:50 |generally a nice 2020, to 40 handle run, don't take my word for it. Go back and
833 |832 |01:24:50 ~-~-> 01:24:53 |look at your charts and see it. And don't just look at the last two weeks
834 |833 |01:24:53 ~-~-> 01:24:56 |and think you have something figured out. Okay, again, I got comments about
835 |834 |01:24:56 ~-~-> 01:25:03 |some guy who didn't, uh. Systems run on the probabilities of the opening range
836 |835 |01:25:03 ~-~-> 01:25:07 |gap not filling, or, I'm sorry, filling 7% of time in the first 30 minutes. I
837 |836 |01:25:07 ~-~-> 01:25:13 |have data going back 40 years, so I don't know what your data is, but I have
838 |837 |01:25:13 ~-~-> 01:25:19 |four decades of data only, so your data is probably skewed, meaning you don't
839 |838 |01:25:19 ~-~-> 01:25:23 |have the full picture. And I wouldn't just toss that number out there. I'm not
840 |839 |01:25:23 ~-~-> 01:25:27 |literally pulling out of my ass to sound intelligent. It's based on my own
841 |840 |01:25:27 ~-~-> 01:25:32 |studies, my own observations. I've been watching the markets for 32 years. I
842 |841 |01:25:32 ~-~-> 01:25:38 |have data. I've purchased data before I started trading, the markets were
843 |842 |01:25:38 ~-~-> 01:25:43 |trading, so I had to buy data because I wanted to back test how far, how far
844 |843 |01:25:43 ~-~-> 01:25:47 |back did these observations I was making exist in price action? So when I tell
845 |844 |01:25:47 ~-~-> 01:25:52 |you the opening range gaps, these were things that I was dealing with, you
846 |845 |01:25:52 ~-~-> 01:25:59 |know, currency futures, let's do this. Go back in, put all the lipstick back
847 |846 |01:25:59 ~-~-> 01:25:59 |on. I'm
848 |847 |01:26:04 ~-~-> 01:26:10 |control. Z, alright, so we are sitting with a very large opening range gap.
849 |848 |01:26:10 ~-~-> 01:26:21 |There we are, and let's look at this on a one minute chart. So there is the
850 |849 |01:26:23 ~-~-> 01:26:36 |burger trading hours settlement to opening price, and that's mid gap. And
851 |850 |01:26:40 ~-~-> 01:26:46 |now we can go back into electronic trading hours.
852 |851 |01:26:52 ~-~-> 01:26:58 |Actually get that price. 111, three quarters. I
853 |852 |01:27:04 ~-~-> 01:27:08 |Okay, so here is mid gap inside of opening range I'm
854 |853 |01:28:00 ~-~-> 01:28:06 |These are the Days where I'd like to see it not go to mid gap yet. But in fact,
855 |854 |01:28:06 ~-~-> 01:28:11 |give this initial drop down here to get traders thinking it's going to go lower
856 |855 |01:28:11 ~-~-> 01:28:24 |and then rally it higher and go for the obvious buy side. I Yeah, because if it
857 |856 |01:28:24 ~-~-> 01:28:30 |comes all the way down to mid gap and decline from there all the way up here,
858 |857 |01:28:30 ~-~-> 01:28:35 |then I'm, I'm convinced at that time that we won't just go here to go back
859 |858 |01:28:35 ~-~-> 01:28:38 |down. It's going to go here and then consolidate, accumulate more and go
860 |859 |01:28:38 ~-~-> 01:28:44 |higher. Even still, if it goes down to the big gap, then comes all the way back
861 |860 |01:28:44 ~-~-> 01:28:49 |up here, that is not some kind of a run for turtle soup scenario to go lower.
862 |861 |01:28:49 ~-~-> 01:28:53 |That would be indicative of this is if things gonna go higher, a lot higher.
863 |862 |01:28:57 ~-~-> 01:29:01 |This box is not an inefficiency. Remember, I was showing you the the
864 |863 |01:29:01 ~-~-> 01:29:05 |liquidity being taken on that minor buy side. So we take that off, it's going to
865 |864 |01:29:05 ~-~-> 01:29:08 |confuse your otherwise, I was looking at thinking of myself. What the hell did I
866 |865 |01:29:08 ~-~-> 01:29:12 |draw that for? Now, you know why I don't like to draw things on my chart. I trade
867 |866 |01:29:12 ~-~-> 01:29:17 |naked and I look at all the levels here numerically in a notepad form. So I'm
868 |867 |01:29:17 ~-~-> 01:29:21 |constantly getting a different perspective, not just getting lost in
869 |868 |01:29:21 ~-~-> 01:29:26 |the candlesticks, as some people might say, I'm looking at the data based on PD
870 |869 |01:29:26 ~-~-> 01:29:32 |arrays on a notepad, and I'm thinking about what I expect to see in price. I'm
871 |870 |01:29:32 ~-~-> 01:29:35 |not putting lipstick on a chart, and if I'm throwing things on my chart like
872 |871 |01:29:35 ~-~-> 01:29:40 |this while I'm teaching, it's very distracting to me, because it's
873 |872 |01:29:40 ~-~-> 01:29:45 |something I have to whether I want to do it or not. Subconsciously, I'm always
874 |873 |01:29:45 ~-~-> 01:29:48 |trying to think, did I What did I put that in? Like, the other day, I had
875 |874 |01:29:48 ~-~-> 01:29:52 |something on there, and it was just saying, just the rectangle that I had
876 |875 |01:29:52 ~-~-> 01:29:58 |started, and because I lost where I let go of it on here, it appeared on the
877 |876 |01:29:58 ~-~-> 01:30:02 |lower time frame chart. But. It wasn't something that was really annotating or
878 |877 |01:30:03 ~-~-> 01:30:06 |drawing any special attention to anything. That's what I want to see.
879 |878 |01:30:07 ~-~-> 01:30:14 |That type of thing drop down and say, Nope, let's rip it higher. So I want to
880 |879 |01:30:14 ~-~-> 01:30:19 |see some kind of a fair value gap form as it runs back up into the high of that
881 |880 |01:30:19 ~-~-> 01:30:22 |Sibi, which is this red shaded area. Remember that inefficiency we were
882 |881 |01:30:22 ~-~-> 01:30:26 |talking about all morning, of how this is repricing back over top of it. We've
883 |882 |01:30:26 ~-~-> 01:30:32 |already had multiple candles laid on top of it. This move here could be maybe an
884 |883 |01:30:32 ~-~-> 01:30:38 |initial Judah swing. Short sellers are trying to trade the gap closure. Even my
885 |884 |01:30:38 ~-~-> 01:30:41 |studies with the half gap, they might be trying to do that too. I don't want to
886 |885 |01:30:41 ~-~-> 01:30:46 |see that right now. I want to see it rally and make an attempt to unseat
887 |886 |01:30:46 ~-~-> 01:30:49 |these individuals, because that that stays true to the form of what Non Farm
888 |887 |01:30:49 ~-~-> 01:30:54 |Payroll really is. That's the That's the nature of Non Farm Payroll. It's to
889 |888 |01:30:54 ~-~-> 01:31:00 |disrupt those who are right now profitable. And that's the shorts from
890 |889 |01:31:00 ~-~-> 01:31:08 |Tuesday, if you had a stop loss up here and you're holding your short you've
891 |890 |01:31:08 ~-~-> 01:31:12 |seen a lot of ground lost when you're on your position, would you feel confident
892 |891 |01:31:12 ~-~-> 01:31:14 |that the market is going to reach all the up here to get
893 |892 |01:31:22 ~-~-> 01:31:33 |you? I Non Farm Payroll is boogeyman trading basically. Who can they get and
894 |893 |01:31:33 ~-~-> 01:31:34 |are you going to get? Got
895 |894 |01:31:40 ~-~-> 01:31:50 |one of the best observations, I've noticed is that many of you, some of you
896 |895 |01:31:50 ~-~-> 01:31:54 |actually were very critical a lot in the comments, but you were doing it in a
897 |896 |01:31:54 ~-~-> 01:31:58 |respectful manner, so that I didn't, I didn't hide you from the channel, which
898 |897 |01:31:58 ~-~-> 01:32:03 |means that I will never see your comment. But you think, I can, you'll be
899 |898 |01:32:03 ~-~-> 01:32:08 |able to see your comment on the YouTube channel. Your post was the only one you
900 |899 |01:32:08 ~-~-> 01:32:11 |see, but I won't ever, I won't be able to see it if you're rude, if you say
901 |900 |01:32:11 ~-~-> 01:32:14 |something stupid, you only get one chance to do that, and then I, I
902 |901 |01:32:14 ~-~-> 01:32:25 |basically it's a little option for a channel holder or owner. If someone
903 |902 |01:32:25 ~-~-> 01:32:30 |needs a comment, I could delete the comment, and you'll see it deleted. If I
904 |903 |01:32:30 ~-~-> 01:32:34 |did that, I don't delete comments. I look at removing you from the channel,
905 |904 |01:32:34 ~-~-> 01:32:37 |meaning you'll be able to leave your comments. You'll be able to talk to
906 |905 |01:32:37 ~-~-> 01:32:40 |yourself. I won't ever see your comment. No one else sees your comment either,
907 |906 |01:32:41 ~-~-> 01:32:47 |but some of them in the past have been critical but still respectful, saying,
908 |907 |01:32:47 ~-~-> 01:32:54 |Listen, you know, I don't see any merit in in these things. I can see that
909 |908 |01:32:54 ~-~-> 01:32:58 |you're trading and doing executions with them. I'm watching this gap right here,
910 |909 |01:32:58 ~-~-> 01:33:05 |by the way, the they make the observation saying, Wow, I see your
911 |910 |01:33:05 ~-~-> 01:33:12 |while I see your executions. I don't see any merit in the the concepts
912 |911 |01:33:12 ~-~-> 01:33:18 |themselves. So which leads me to believe that these are cherry picked scenarios.
913 |912 |01:33:19 ~-~-> 01:33:23 |So I can appreciate a comment like that, but then when we come in here and you're
914 |913 |01:33:23 ~-~-> 01:33:26 |live streaming, and I'm explaining what I think is going to happen in price, and
915 |914 |01:33:26 ~-~-> 01:33:31 |you've seen some executions now and the logic behind them, using all the logic
916 |915 |01:33:31 ~-~-> 01:33:36 |that I've taught, and then using that logic against itself and seeing how it
917 |916 |01:33:36 ~-~-> 01:33:43 |fails. So one of the wonderful things I've had in the last few months, more
918 |917 |01:33:43 ~-~-> 01:33:47 |specifically, last two weeks, these these live streams and the lectures I've
919 |918 |01:33:48 ~-~-> 01:33:53 |given have brought a lot of clarity to a lot of you, and the the points that are
920 |919 |01:33:53 ~-~-> 01:33:58 |repeating are, I'm a whole lot more calmer watching price now, whereas I was
921 |920 |01:33:58 ~-~-> 01:34:02 |not interested in just looking at price, I wanted to be demoing at least or
922 |921 |01:34:02 ~-~-> 01:34:07 |trying to pass a funded account challenge, and now the idea of watching
923 |922 |01:34:07 ~-~-> 01:34:15 |price with the intent to understand it more, somehow, I bridge the gap with a
924 |923 |01:34:15 ~-~-> 01:34:19 |lot of you, and I'm very thankful for that. As being as a teacher, as a
925 |924 |01:34:19 ~-~-> 01:34:26 |mentor, that's a very hard barrier to breach with teachers doing some kind of
926 |925 |01:34:27 ~-~-> 01:34:31 |breakthrough for students to say, Okay, I trust this person teaching me now. I
927 |926 |01:34:31 ~-~-> 01:34:34 |trust this person, so I'm going to submit to the things they asked me to
928 |927 |01:34:34 ~-~-> 01:34:39 |do. And I'm seeing a lot of feedback like that now, and it's this really
929 |928 |01:34:39 ~-~-> 01:34:44 |encouraging as a teacher to see that, because I wear my heart on my sleeve as
930 |929 |01:34:44 ~-~-> 01:34:48 |a teacher, like whether you paid me in the past, or whether you're watching for
931 |930 |01:34:48 ~-~-> 01:34:50 |free, and you really don't really appreciate much of what you're getting.
932 |931 |01:34:50 ~-~-> 01:34:54 |You just want to come here and just sample whatever you think is an
933 |932 |01:34:54 ~-~-> 01:34:57 |entertainment, or maybe you're running a mentorship, and you're sampling things,
934 |933 |01:34:57 ~-~-> 01:35:00 |taking things, and saying, Well, I'll add this to my next. Teaching, and I'll
935 |934 |01:35:00 ~-~-> 01:35:04 |do this, and I'll do that, that to me is not, you're not a student of mine,
936 |935 |01:35:04 ~-~-> 01:35:10 |You're a parasite. But the students that are here because they're trying to learn
937 |936 |01:35:10 ~-~-> 01:35:14 |how to do this and be independent from me, that's who I'm teaching. That's
938 |937 |01:35:14 ~-~-> 01:35:21 |that's target audience. If it's not my son's it's the the alternative is, is
939 |938 |01:35:21 ~-~-> 01:35:24 |that these individuals that are generally trying to make an effort to
940 |939 |01:35:24 ~-~-> 01:35:29 |learn how to do it, and they're being serious about it, they're taking it
941 |940 |01:35:29 ~-~-> 01:35:33 |serious, and that means they're doing these lab experiments of going in and
942 |941 |01:35:34 ~-~-> 01:35:38 |engaging price on every fair value gap that forms, and looking for a run into
943 |942 |01:35:38 ~-~-> 01:35:41 |the nearby liquidity. And the feedback I'm getting from that, because now
944 |943 |01:35:41 ~-~-> 01:35:45 |they're doing that. They're using their demo account properly now, they're not
945 |944 |01:35:45 ~-~-> 01:35:48 |in here trying to over leverage to show somebody on social media. Look what I
946 |945 |01:35:48 ~-~-> 01:35:53 |made when you don't have any idea why that, why that panned out, and why is it
947 |946 |01:35:53 ~-~-> 01:35:59 |going to fail the next time you try it, the the descriptions that everyone's
948 |947 |01:35:59 ~-~-> 01:36:03 |leaving about, the aha moments, the epiphanies, these these leaps and
949 |948 |01:36:03 ~-~-> 01:36:09 |understanding and excitement about what they're learning. That's the part that I
950 |949 |01:36:09 ~-~-> 01:36:14 |love. That's the energy I feed off of, if I can be called a vampire, I'm living
951 |950 |01:36:14 ~-~-> 01:36:19 |off the energy vicariously by all of you sharing those moments, because that
952 |951 |01:36:19 ~-~-> 01:36:23 |supercharges me, because I know it was like for me. I know exactly what that
953 |952 |01:36:23 ~-~-> 01:36:28 |feels like, and I've lost that, because nothing's new to me anymore, and when I
954 |953 |01:36:28 ~-~-> 01:36:34 |see my students share that, and you can, I can, I can feel the vibrations of
955 |954 |01:36:34 ~-~-> 01:36:40 |their excitement and their their their passion being stirred up about what
956 |955 |01:36:40 ~-~-> 01:36:43 |they're learning, and I can tell they're spending time in the charts because
957 |956 |01:36:44 ~-~-> 01:36:51 |their their remarks are wordy. They're very descriptive. They're they're trying
958 |957 |01:36:51 ~-~-> 01:36:56 |to do the best to find words to describe how they feel. And I already know what
959 |958 |01:36:56 ~-~-> 01:36:59 |you feel. I already know. Trust me, I know what that feels like, and it's very
960 |959 |01:36:59 ~-~-> 01:37:04 |hard to describe it, even though you know that you try very hard to describe
961 |960 |01:37:04 ~-~-> 01:37:07 |how exciting it is for you right now, because you're seeing things happen in
962 |961 |01:37:07 ~-~-> 01:37:11 |the chart, and you're looking over your shoulder thinking, How is this possible?
963 |962 |01:37:11 ~-~-> 01:37:16 |I can see this and just by watching these videos and this this mentorship.
964 |963 |01:37:16 ~-~-> 01:37:21 |Why is this guy doing this for free? Why? Why am I really allowed to know
965 |964 |01:37:21 ~-~-> 01:37:26 |this? And that's, that's the that's the wonderful feeling of being informed
966 |965 |01:37:26 ~-~-> 01:37:33 |money now you're in a small minority group right now, it's even though Smart
967 |966 |01:37:33 ~-~-> 01:37:39 |Money concepts. SMC, that's my stuff that's in a lot of people's mouths right
968 |967 |01:37:39 ~-~-> 01:37:45 |now. A lot of people using those terms don't know what they're doing, and a lot
969 |968 |01:37:45 ~-~-> 01:37:49 |of them are selling content, selling lectures and whatnot, and they're going
970 |969 |01:37:49 ~-~-> 01:37:54 |around pretending to be informed money when they're not. They're only informed
971 |970 |01:37:54 ~-~-> 01:37:57 |as much as the replay button Show or what the hindsight chart movement has
972 |971 |01:37:57 ~-~-> 01:38:03 |shown, and you're learning how to do it independent from me, and that's power,
973 |972 |01:38:03 ~-~-> 01:38:12 |that's independence, that is maturity. And it's also something that when you
974 |973 |01:38:12 ~-~-> 01:38:19 |see things get expensive, and we're all seeing that you won't you won't fear,
975 |974 |01:38:20 ~-~-> 01:38:25 |okay, you can't control inflation. You can't control the higher price of this
976 |975 |01:38:25 ~-~-> 01:38:30 |stuff, but you do have a skill that you're growing that can outpace
977 |976 |01:38:30 ~-~-> 01:38:36 |inflation, even hyperinflation. Hyperinflation, costly things. It's not
978 |977 |01:38:36 ~-~-> 01:38:40 |like nobody wants to have it. I have lots of money, and I still get pissed
979 |978 |01:38:40 ~-~-> 01:38:44 |off that they're doing what they're doing with the cost of things, because I
980 |979 |01:38:44 ~-~-> 01:38:47 |know what it feels like when I'm spending money for a month's worth of
981 |980 |01:38:47 ~-~-> 01:38:52 |groceries and I'm supporting other family members. That's a lot of money in
982 |981 |01:38:53 ~-~-> 01:38:56 |the hands of someone that works a regular job. That's a lot of money. I
983 |982 |01:38:56 ~-~-> 01:39:00 |don't know how they're doing it. I don't know how anybody else is doing it, but
984 |983 |01:39:00 ~-~-> 01:39:07 |you are learning a skill that you can compound a little bit of money into a
985 |984 |01:39:08 ~-~-> 01:39:14 |secondary income revenue stream that could potentially grow to something that
986 |985 |01:39:14 ~-~-> 01:39:19 |makes you millions of dollars. And when you have millions of dollars at
987 |986 |01:39:19 ~-~-> 01:39:23 |disposal, or you can just use it for whatever you want. And want. You sleep a
988 |987 |01:39:23 ~-~-> 01:39:26 |little bit easier at night. I'm not saying, you know, money should be your
989 |988 |01:39:26 ~-~-> 01:39:32 |God or your safety net, but it's a tool. It's an absolute tool. But if you don't
990 |989 |01:39:32 ~-~-> 01:39:35 |have the ability to make money, and if you don't have the ability and the
991 |990 |01:39:35 ~-~-> 01:39:40 |understanding and the mindset that you can repetitively go out and make more
992 |991 |01:39:40 ~-~-> 01:39:46 |new money, and you're not limited how much you can make. Who says you can't
993 |992 |01:39:46 ~-~-> 01:39:53 |make $100,000 in the month of December? Who says you can't? Who could convince
994 |993 |01:39:53 ~-~-> 01:39:58 |you that you couldn't? You know, no one could convince me. I couldn't. No one
995 |994 |01:39:58 ~-~-> 01:40:04 |convinced my top tier student. They can't. So when you have that, and you
996 |995 |01:40:04 ~-~-> 01:40:09 |try to explain to other people that can't do it, it sounds arrogant. It
997 |996 |01:40:09 ~-~-> 01:40:14 |sounds narcissistic. When it's just that that's them telling you the truth. They
998 |997 |01:40:14 ~-~-> 01:40:19 |have an ability that they trust in, they have a skill set that they know, that
999 |998 |01:40:19 ~-~-> 01:40:26 |they can tap into and it's going to serve them in the future. Hey, Caden
1000 |999 |01:40:26 ~-~-> 01:40:35 |blacks. All right. So so far, opening range has been pretty much lackluster.
1001 |1000 |01:40:35 ~-~-> 01:40:35 |You?
1002 |1001 |01:40:46 ~-~-> 01:40:51 |But the main takeaway is that, as a mentor teaching it, I'm happy to see
1003 |1002 |01:40:51 ~-~-> 01:40:56 |people saying I am calm. I'm not in a rush to push the button anymore. I'm
1004 |1003 |01:40:56 ~-~-> 01:41:01 |observing what I'm doing. And here's the main thing that is, I've noticed a lot
1005 |1004 |01:41:01 ~-~-> 01:41:06 |of individuals are now passing their funded account combines in all of the
1006 |1005 |01:41:06 ~-~-> 01:41:10 |other prop firms, like not just one prop firm, like all of them, and they're
1007 |1006 |01:41:10 ~-~-> 01:41:15 |saying what I've learned just in the last nine, eight weeks, or whatever, has
1008 |1007 |01:41:15 ~-~-> 01:41:19 |allowed me to be calm about my executions. Know what I'm looking for.
1009 |1008 |01:41:19 ~-~-> 01:41:24 |And I used to be scared when I put a trade on. I'd be afraid I was going to
1010 |1009 |01:41:24 ~-~-> 01:41:27 |blow the Combine or blow the funded account. And I'm getting payouts now.
1011 |1010 |01:41:27 ~-~-> 01:41:32 |That's the other thing. Combines being passed and payouts. I've not seen such a
1012 |1011 |01:41:32 ~-~-> 01:41:38 |large influx before, larger than I have now in the last two months, because
1013 |1012 |01:41:38 ~-~-> 01:41:42 |people are they're buckling down and saying, You know what? I'm treating it
1014 |1013 |01:41:42 ~-~-> 01:41:46 |like a business. I'm not treating it like online casino, poker and stuff like
1015 |1014 |01:41:46 ~-~-> 01:41:51 |that. You're not gambling. Now, something has happened, some kind of
1016 |1015 |01:41:51 ~-~-> 01:41:55 |shift in your paradigm has caused you to look at things differently now, and I
1017 |1016 |01:41:55 ~-~-> 01:41:59 |don't know what it is specifically, because I've always been teaching like
1018 |1017 |01:41:59 ~-~-> 01:42:03 |this and all of these lessons, really, unless I specifically said this is
1019 |1018 |01:42:03 ~-~-> 01:42:06 |something new, even my mentorship students are learning with you right
1020 |1019 |01:42:06 ~-~-> 01:42:11 |here. It hasn't been a whole lot of that. But because now, I think, because
1021 |1020 |01:42:11 ~-~-> 01:42:14 |things are so expensive, I think people are at their wits end. They're like,
1022 |1021 |01:42:14 ~-~-> 01:42:16 |look, I have to make this work, and I'm going to take it serious. The man's
1023 |1022 |01:42:16 ~-~-> 01:42:19 |putting his time out here for free. I'm going to take advantage of that, and I'm
1024 |1023 |01:42:19 ~-~-> 01:42:23 |going to do what he says, and I'm going to put the work in. That's what I think
1025 |1024 |01:42:23 ~-~-> 01:42:25 |is actually happening. Because all the things I'm teaching here, I taught
1026 |1025 |01:42:25 ~-~-> 01:42:30 |opening gaps. I taught opening range, gap in mentorship. I have students that
1027 |1026 |01:42:30 ~-~-> 01:42:34 |knew about it before. I started talking about, like, that's not new stuff. I've
1028 |1027 |01:42:34 ~-~-> 01:42:42 |taught this before. So what's occurring, I think, is the sense of urgency, while
1029 |1028 |01:42:42 ~-~-> 01:42:47 |you can't speed up your ability to learn how to do this well, you can shorten the
1030 |1029 |01:42:47 ~-~-> 01:42:51 |learning curve by being diligent about how you study and what your expectations
1031 |1030 |01:42:51 ~-~-> 01:43:01 |are while you do it. Let's cut through all this chat here and focusing on this
1032 |1031 |01:43:01 ~-~-> 01:43:06 |gap. Let's see if they use it, and then if it starts to spool, lower this gap
1033 |1032 |01:43:06 ~-~-> 01:43:11 |down here, and then to 70% of the gap closure, I'm sorry, 50% of the gap
1034 |1033 |01:43:11 ~-~-> 01:43:17 |closure, which is 70% likelihood of happening in the first 30 minutes. But
1035 |1034 |01:43:17 ~-~-> 01:43:20 |I'm not holding it to, it to today, because it's not Farm Payroll, and it
1036 |1035 |01:43:20 ~-~-> 01:43:25 |just it's typical to break the rules, which is another reason why I don't like
1037 |1036 |01:43:25 ~-~-> 01:43:32 |to trade it. Do you see any prisons? Easy for you to say. ICT. Do you see any
1038 |1037 |01:43:32 ~-~-> 01:43:39 |precision elements in price action so far today? Nope. So what did I teach you
1039 |1038 |01:43:39 ~-~-> 01:43:43 |this week when you see that lack of precision around my PD arrays. What's
1040 |1039 |01:43:43 ~-~-> 01:43:49 |occurring? Who's in the marketplace, pushing and maneuvering price. It's not
1041 |1040 |01:43:49 ~-~-> 01:43:57 |the buyers and sellers. It's good old Phil. He's doing his job today, moving
1042 |1041 |01:43:57 ~-~-> 01:44:02 |price around, running stops here, pushing it here, pushing it there, and
1043 |1042 |01:44:02 ~-~-> 01:44:06 |there's no rhyme or reason why it's doing it. And that's how you lose money
1044 |1043 |01:44:06 ~-~-> 01:44:09 |saying, Well, I feel like I've been watching this long enough today, it's
1045 |1044 |01:44:09 ~-~-> 01:44:13 |about time I push a button. Let me see what happens when I do this. Well, there
1046 |1045 |01:44:13 ~-~-> 01:44:16 |you go. Congratulations. Here's your ass. Hand it right to you on the silver
1047 |1046 |01:44:18 ~-~-> 01:44:24 |platter. That's not what I'm teaching. I'm teaching what to look for when it's
1048 |1047 |01:44:24 ~-~-> 01:44:27 |high probability. It's obvious, it's one sided. You can't justify going in the
1049 |1048 |01:44:27 ~-~-> 01:44:31 |other direction with it. It's so heavy handed, long or short, that's when
1050 |1049 |01:44:31 ~-~-> 01:44:39 |you're trading immaturity is waiting for those instances where it's so painfully
1051 |1050 |01:44:39 ~-~-> 01:44:45 |obvious, and if you make that your regimen, that is your protocol, that you
1052 |1051 |01:44:45 ~-~-> 01:44:50 |look for every single time you trade, you are going to do the most in terms of
1053 |1052 |01:44:50 ~-~-> 01:44:53 |reducing the likelihood of you blowing your account, reduce the likelihood of
1054 |1053 |01:44:53 ~-~-> 01:44:57 |you going into drawdown, reduce the effects of fear and greed, because you
1055 |1054 |01:44:57 ~-~-> 01:45:03 |know what you're looking for. And I think. Right as a teacher, no better
1056 |1055 |01:45:03 ~-~-> 01:45:10 |reward for our time invested in other people than seeing a student say, I'm so
1057 |1056 |01:45:10 ~-~-> 01:45:15 |proud of myself that I stuck to this because I wanted to quit so many times,
1058 |1057 |01:45:15 ~-~-> 01:45:24 |because it's not easy. It is not easy. But for the folks that have grinded
1059 |1058 |01:45:24 ~-~-> 01:45:30 |through this for several years, I have 2016 first round mentorship students
1060 |1059 |01:45:31 ~-~-> 01:45:34 |that literally has reached out to me in the last two and a half weeks and said,
1061 |1060 |01:45:34 ~-~-> 01:45:40 |Michael, like it was, it was impossible for me to see how any of this could help
1062 |1061 |01:45:40 ~-~-> 01:45:45 |me in I see your students, I see what you're doing, and it still wasn't able
1063 |1062 |01:45:45 ~-~-> 01:45:49 |to bridge the gap for me, this mentorship that what you've shown here,
1064 |1063 |01:45:49 ~-~-> 01:45:54 |like it's something brand new, nothing, nothing I taught here, except for the
1065 |1064 |01:45:54 ~-~-> 01:45:58 |few things I mentioned, like a new week, opening gap, a new day, opening gap, and
1066 |1065 |01:45:58 ~-~-> 01:46:02 |the difference between the two and how to use them. Notice I'm not using them
1067 |1066 |01:46:02 ~-~-> 01:46:06 |every day. I'm reminding you that you don't need those either. They're just
1068 |1067 |01:46:06 ~-~-> 01:46:13 |helpful, they're helpful and using the right context, they're extremely
1069 |1068 |01:46:13 ~-~-> 01:46:18 |precise. But you don't need that. You don't need to bring everything from my
1070 |1069 |01:46:18 ~-~-> 01:46:21 |YouTube channel to your charts and say, I need all this or I can't be
1071 |1070 |01:46:21 ~-~-> 01:46:26 |profitable. And that's the other thing I find it's very encouraging, because now
1072 |1071 |01:46:26 ~-~-> 01:46:32 |you're seeing that my stuff is not complicated. It's very simple. You don't
1073 |1072 |01:46:32 ~-~-> 01:46:36 |you don't need everything that I teach. Need one thing that sets the stage for
1074 |1073 |01:46:36 ~-~-> 01:46:40 |you to be bullish or bearish. Then you have to look at what time of the day
1075 |1074 |01:46:40 ~-~-> 01:46:47 |you're going to trade. Okay, in that time of day, where is the macro? Where's
1076 |1075 |01:46:47 ~-~-> 01:46:51 |the liquidity, what's your multiplier, what's the PD array that you're going to
1077 |1076 |01:46:51 ~-~-> 01:46:54 |be using to get into the trade? These are all the things that are going to be
1078 |1077 |01:46:54 ~-~-> 01:46:58 |hard in the beginning, because you're going to see other students say, I'm
1079 |1078 |01:46:58 ~-~-> 01:47:01 |using the optimal trade entry here. I'm using inversion, fair value gap. I'm
1080 |1079 |01:47:01 ~-~-> 01:47:07 |using propulsion, block order blocks, institutional order flow, entry drills.
1081 |1080 |01:47:10 ~-~-> 01:47:15 |And you you're afraid that you'll spend too much time doing one PD array when
1082 |1081 |01:47:15 ~-~-> 01:47:18 |you're really designed and meant to trade something else, and you're gonna
1083 |1082 |01:47:18 ~-~-> 01:47:22 |think it's the universe trying to communicate to you that this guy's thing
1084 |1083 |01:47:22 ~-~-> 01:47:25 |popped up on my stream. I don't even follow him. He was showing the inversion
1085 |1084 |01:47:25 ~-~-> 01:47:31 |fair Vega. That's the one I should be doing, not the quarter block or breaker.
1086 |1085 |01:47:31 ~-~-> 01:47:46 |You have to start somewhere and then stick to it. Well, it's certainly making
1087 |1086 |01:47:46 ~-~-> 01:47:54 |the case like it wants to get down there. I still wouldn't trade it. See me
1088 |1087 |01:47:54 ~-~-> 01:47:55 |here today. I
1089 |1088 |01:48:08 ~-~-> 01:48:12 |now in an ideal world, if it's bearish, the upper half of this gap should not be
1090 |1089 |01:48:12 ~-~-> 01:48:13 |closed in i
1091 |1090 |01:48:20 ~-~-> 01:48:46 |I'll think about what's below the marketplace right now. You have this
1092 |1091 |01:48:46 ~-~-> 01:48:53 |discount width, consequent encroachment, you have this fair value gap, and you
1093 |1092 |01:48:53 ~-~-> 01:49:01 |have the 70% closure, 70% 50% of the opening range gap that that has 70%
1094 |1093 |01:49:01 ~-~-> 01:49:06 |likelihood of closing within the first 30 minutes of trading. So 10 o'clock is
1095 |1094 |01:49:06 ~-~-> 01:49:10 |here, so you have a couple minutes.
1096 |1095 |01:49:15 ~-~-> 01:49:24 |But I subscribe to the idea that it doesn't have to do that today. I what I
1097 |1096 |01:49:24 ~-~-> 01:49:26 |was saying about this gap here,
1098 |1097 |01:49:40 ~-~-> 01:49:47 |this gap there, Tony, I was watching that we came back up in the body,
1099 |1098 |01:49:47 ~-~-> 01:49:54 |stopped at the upper quadrant of it, and then we broke lower. We created this
1100 |1099 |01:49:54 ~-~-> 01:49:59 |fair value gap, if this was going to be bearish after leaving this gap here.
1101 |1100 |01:50:00 ~-~-> 01:50:04 |Because it showed a signature at the upper upper quadrant, meaning this, look
1102 |1101 |01:50:04 ~-~-> 01:50:09 |at the look at the fifth here. Watch this high up to the high of the volume
1103 |1102 |01:50:09 ~-~-> 01:50:14 |of balance, because you have to factor that in. And then the quadrant levels. I
1104 |1103 |01:50:14 ~-~-> 01:50:24 |know I'm covering price. I'm sorry. I'm trying to be as quick as I can. I'm the
1105 |1104 |01:50:25 ~-~-> 01:50:32 |the bodies are respecting the upper quadrant of that gap. So if the price
1106 |1105 |01:50:32 ~-~-> 01:50:35 |leaves lower like this and creates another fair value gap, this is going to
1107 |1106 |01:50:35 ~-~-> 01:50:42 |be a breakaway gap. So there's our delivery into our fair value gap here,
1108 |1107 |01:50:42 ~-~-> 01:50:53 |and consequent encouragement of this wick would be next, and then half the
1109 |1108 |01:50:53 ~-~-> 01:51:00 |gap. So breakaway gaps? I have a lot of people asking about, Can I comment on
1110 |1109 |01:51:00 ~-~-> 01:51:04 |that what, what you know, what constitutes a breakaway guy? You have to
1111 |1110 |01:51:04 ~-~-> 01:51:08 |be able to identify and admit that you can hear. You know, I'm trying to be
1112 |1111 |01:51:08 ~-~-> 01:51:14 |mindful of the risks of today, because I know that many of you that aren't always
1113 |1112 |01:51:14 ~-~-> 01:51:18 |honest with me, some of you are overzealous, and you do trade your
1114 |1113 |01:51:18 ~-~-> 01:51:22 |account while watching the live stream, and because you made money for the first
1115 |1114 |01:51:22 ~-~-> 01:51:26 |time, you're trying to share that with me on Twitter, and you show me, this is
1116 |1115 |01:51:26 ~-~-> 01:51:31 |what I've made today. Thank you so much, you know, and I appreciate the Thank
1117 |1116 |01:51:31 ~-~-> 01:51:35 |you, but I don't want you thanking me for you doing the things I told you not
1118 |1117 |01:51:35 ~-~-> 01:51:39 |to do. Please don't share your trades with me. Okay? You can share them on
1119 |1118 |01:51:39 ~-~-> 01:51:43 |your social media. You can credit me, if as an influence, but don't put my sim
1120 |1119 |01:51:43 ~-~-> 01:51:48 |like my at don't put my handle in it, because I'll see it and it messes it
1121 |1120 |01:51:48 ~-~-> 01:51:54 |messes me up, because I don't want your risk. I don't want it. And you're going
1122 |1121 |01:51:54 ~-~-> 01:51:57 |to show me where it worked out great, but eventually you're going to do
1123 |1122 |01:51:57 ~-~-> 01:52:01 |something that is ill advised and it's going to hurt you, and you're going to
1124 |1123 |01:52:01 ~-~-> 01:52:06 |complain to me and that that that hurts because you don't listen to me. I don't
1125 |1124 |01:52:06 ~-~-> 01:52:09 |want to see you lose money. I don't want to see you do something wrong, and then
1126 |1125 |01:52:09 ~-~-> 01:52:16 |you get scar tissue from it. But in the comments around all that stuff, a lot of
1127 |1126 |01:52:16 ~-~-> 01:52:22 |folks, there's the consequent correction, the wick, the here comes the
1128 |1127 |01:52:22 ~-~-> 01:52:28 |gap closure to 50% boom. And it happened three, 410, o'clock again. So there's
1129 |1128 |01:52:28 ~-~-> 01:52:33 |your stats still killing ICT style, Mister, I don't think it happens seven
1130 |1129 |01:52:33 ~-~-> 01:52:40 |or seven time. Here's the other gap. I told you I'd like to see. So anyway, let
1131 |1130 |01:52:40 ~-~-> 01:52:46 |me finish this thought here. Because we had this initial gap there, I wanted to
1132 |1131 |01:52:46 ~-~-> 01:52:50 |see how price traded away from it. It did. And then I was watching when price
1133 |1132 |01:52:50 ~-~-> 01:52:54 |was digging up into it. I was waiting to see how the candlesticks are dropped.
1134 |1133 |01:52:55 ~-~-> 01:52:59 |Where are they burying the bodies? Okay, so if they're burying the bodies inside
1135 |1134 |01:52:59 ~-~-> 01:53:04 |that gap, and it's respecting the upper quadrant. That's the same thing, even
1136 |1135 |01:53:04 ~-~-> 01:53:08 |though it wicks outside of that gap. This is normal. We allow for that. What
1137 |1136 |01:53:08 ~-~-> 01:53:12 |is that called a mohawk? It's just coloring outside the lines. It doesn't
1138 |1137 |01:53:12 ~-~-> 01:53:16 |mean something's inherently broken or wrong. Just means it just explored
1139 |1138 |01:53:16 ~-~-> 01:53:21 |outside of that. But the bodies are telling you what. It's respecting the
1140 |1139 |01:53:21 ~-~-> 01:53:25 |upper quadrant of that gap. And that means, if we trade away from it, go
1141 |1140 |01:53:25 ~-~-> 01:53:31 |lower, then it creates that gap with this candlesticks high, as I was telling
1142 |1141 |01:53:31 ~-~-> 01:53:36 |you, this gap. I'm watching it, and if it trades up here, I want to see it
1143 |1142 |01:53:36 ~-~-> 01:53:40 |leave the upper half of that gap open. Well, let's put the divider on it. I'm
1144 |1143 |01:53:47 ~-~-> 01:53:53 |a red line in here a little bit. Do you see the price stopping at halfway point
1145 |1144 |01:53:53 ~-~-> 01:54:00 |and not going in the upper half of that? Pretty, pretty precise, isn't it? So
1146 |1145 |01:54:03 ~-~-> 01:54:07 |because we left this gap in a manner showing these signatures like this, and
1147 |1146 |01:54:07 ~-~-> 01:54:12 |while I'm not willing to take the trade because it's not from payroll, and I
1148 |1147 |01:54:12 ~-~-> 01:54:15 |could be wrong today, and I know people are going to copy me, and they're not
1149 |1148 |01:54:15 ~-~-> 01:54:19 |going to listen to me, and if I'm wrong on a day where I'm like, not likely to
1150 |1149 |01:54:19 ~-~-> 01:54:26 |be perfectly accurate, you could incur a loss. So I'm being very responsible with
1151 |1150 |01:54:26 ~-~-> 01:54:29 |the choice of words I'm having today, because I don't want to entice you to do
1152 |1151 |01:54:29 ~-~-> 01:54:34 |something that you normally would do in other days. I want you to be respecting
1153 |1152 |01:54:34 ~-~-> 01:54:38 |the risk, because this day tends to do things outside of the parameters and
1154 |1153 |01:54:38 ~-~-> 01:54:43 |rules that I give you. That's the number one reason why I don't trade it. It's,
1155 |1154 |01:54:43 ~-~-> 01:54:48 |it's, it's not something that adheres to the rules. Most times, sometimes it can,
1156 |1155 |01:54:49 ~-~-> 01:54:55 |but most times it doesn't. So because I am aware of that, you're unaware of it.
1157 |1156 |01:54:55 ~-~-> 01:54:58 |You think that I'm subliminally trying to tap your shoulder and say, take this
1158 |1157 |01:54:58 ~-~-> 01:55:02 |as a trade and. That's your conscience speaking to you, saying, let's be
1159 |1158 |01:55:02 ~-~-> 01:55:06 |impulsive and look for anything that is a clue to get in here and do something
1160 |1159 |01:55:06 ~-~-> 01:55:10 |when that's not what's going on here, and it certainly wouldn't be going on on
1161 |1160 |01:55:10 ~-~-> 01:55:15 |a Non Farm Payroll day. So if the price is going to drop down into the gap
1162 |1161 |01:55:15 ~-~-> 01:55:22 |closure, half gap, this inefficiency, that first fair value gap that's leading
1163 |1162 |01:55:22 ~-~-> 01:55:28 |here, then it should be met with no willingness to get to the upper half of
1164 |1163 |01:55:28 ~-~-> 01:55:32 |it, because that would indicate what heaviness and it wants to go lower and
1165 |1164 |01:55:32 ~-~-> 01:55:38 |it get it to script so it drives aggressively down inside the time window
1166 |1165 |01:55:39 ~-~-> 01:55:47 |of 10 o'clock. Gap closure. Half was is right here, and it hit it before 10
1167 |1166 |01:55:47 ~-~-> 01:55:56 |o'clock. So you watched me outline scenarios today that were both sides,
1168 |1167 |01:55:57 ~-~-> 01:56:02 |because it's a day where I can be wrong, and while I was really interested in
1169 |1168 |01:56:02 ~-~-> 01:56:10 |seeing it go higher to upset those those short positions on Tuesday, it worked
1170 |1169 |01:56:10 ~-~-> 01:56:13 |this area here, and it finally broke down. And I took your attention to the
1171 |1170 |01:56:13 ~-~-> 01:56:17 |fair value gap that started this run and outlined it. I don't want to make more
1172 |1171 |01:56:17 ~-~-> 01:56:24 |of it than than what it was, but I want you to see that even in this I can be
1173 |1172 |01:56:24 ~-~-> 01:56:28 |wrong about my analysis. Initially I wanted to see it go higher, but I can
1174 |1173 |01:56:28 ~-~-> 01:56:34 |also recognize where it's likely to change its gears. There was nothing that
1175 |1174 |01:56:34 ~-~-> 01:56:37 |put me in a long position this morning, nothing that would have put me in
1176 |1175 |01:56:37 ~-~-> 01:56:44 |anything long but real time. I explained how this was turning and then using this
1177 |1176 |01:56:44 ~-~-> 01:56:48 |as a breakaway gap. What makes it a breakaway gap is that we've already have
1178 |1177 |01:56:48 ~-~-> 01:56:53 |enough to set the stage. And this is the inception of the price run this fair
1179 |1178 |01:56:53 ~-~-> 01:57:01 |value gap. The signature was inside of that gap. Look real close, okay, as
1180 |1179 |01:57:01 ~-~-> 01:57:03 |price was meandering around in here, remember I was telling you, I want to
1181 |1180 |01:57:03 ~-~-> 01:57:07 |get an x ray. I want to cut through all this chaff and get to the heart of
1182 |1181 |01:57:07 ~-~-> 01:57:12 |what's really going on, this inefficiency. So the market drops down,
1183 |1182 |01:57:13 ~-~-> 01:57:17 |comes right back up in the body, stops short of the upper quadrant. I'm seeing
1184 |1183 |01:57:17 ~-~-> 01:57:21 |all this stuff with just rough eyeballing and the high and the low,
1185 |1184 |01:57:21 ~-~-> 01:57:25 |that that weight gap. In other words, I'm looking at this candle sticks high.
1186 |1185 |01:57:25 ~-~-> 01:57:32 |This candle sticks open because that volume imbalance is there. This is not
1187 |1186 |01:57:32 ~-~-> 01:57:38 |the proper fair value gap. That's not it. That's why you would get this type
1188 |1187 |01:57:38 ~-~-> 01:57:44 |of distortion. You gotta factor in that volume imbalance. If there's ever a
1189 |1188 |01:57:44 ~-~-> 01:57:49 |volume imbalance inside of what would be viewed as a potential fair value gap,
1190 |1189 |01:57:50 ~-~-> 01:57:54 |there is no there's no separation between the bodies with the first candle
1191 |1190 |01:57:54 ~-~-> 01:57:58 |and the second candle, there is a separation between the bodies on candle
1192 |1191 |01:57:58 ~-~-> 01:58:03 |number three and candle number two can number two's close is lower than the
1193 |1192 |01:58:03 ~-~-> 01:58:06 |open of the next candle here. See that that small separation between these two
1194 |1193 |01:58:06 ~-~-> 01:58:14 |price points here and there. So you have to draw your rectangle up there, which
1195 |1194 |01:58:14 ~-~-> 01:58:18 |is another reason why I'm not supplying demand. Okay, I have very specific price
1196 |1195 |01:58:18 ~-~-> 01:58:23 |levels. You're not going to see that idea disguised as supply and demand
1197 |1196 |01:58:25 ~-~-> 01:58:31 |science. It's it's not in there. It's another repertoire. So the benefit of
1198 |1197 |01:58:31 ~-~-> 01:58:35 |having a real range like that defined in real inefficiency, is that when you do
1199 |1198 |01:58:35 ~-~-> 01:58:40 |quadrants inside of it, you're grading that price range. And if it's bearish.
1200 |1199 |01:58:41 ~-~-> 01:58:45 |We want to see signatures that indicate that bearishness. The bodies are going
1201 |1200 |01:58:45 ~-~-> 01:58:49 |to tell you the story. Watching price when it went up in here, look where the
1202 |1201 |01:58:49 ~-~-> 01:58:54 |close is. It's below the upper quadrant. So is it laying the body down on top of
1203 |1202 |01:58:54 ~-~-> 01:59:00 |the high of that shaded white area? No. This candlestick we open, we wick
1204 |1203 |01:59:00 ~-~-> 01:59:08 |outside of it, and then what move away from it. So we opened below the upper
1205 |1204 |01:59:08 ~-~-> 01:59:13 |quadrant. We allowed and afforded the market to do what create a little Mohawk
1206 |1205 |01:59:13 ~-~-> 01:59:18 |color outside the lines. But what does it do after it does that? Smashes down.
1207 |1206 |01:59:18 ~-~-> 01:59:21 |Wonderful. When this candlestick closed, I said, Okay, I'm now watching this
1208 |1207 |01:59:21 ~-~-> 01:59:26 |video. I got here. Go back and listen to the stream. You'll hear me say, I if
1209 |1208 |01:59:26 ~-~-> 01:59:31 |it's bearish, you want to see it stay outside of the upper half, and then
1210 |1209 |01:59:31 ~-~-> 01:59:35 |boom, it delivers right to the half of it, not a tick more, not one tick more.
1211 |1210 |01:59:36 ~-~-> 01:59:42 |And then lower. And then aggressively moves down to mid gap, which is a strike
1212 |1211 |01:59:42 ~-~-> 01:59:47 |rate of 7% no matter what anybody else tells you, by 10 o'clock, and it hits it
1213 |1212 |01:59:47 ~-~-> 01:59:51 |there, and it trades into the gap I was telling you about earlier that this is,
1214 |1213 |01:59:51 ~-~-> 01:59:56 |this is my interest here. If it goes down, I want to see it go down here. If
1215 |1214 |01:59:56 ~-~-> 01:59:59 |it goes below, it comes back up. Treat it as inversion, fair value gap. Then.
1216 |1215 |02:00:00 ~-~-> 02:00:01 |We look for
1217 |1216 |02:00:09 ~-~-> 02:00:10 |minor cell side and ultimately,
1218 |1217 |02:00:18 ~-~-> 02:00:25 |primary cell side over here, so I've given you a couple of extra minutes, but
1219 |1218 |02:00:25 ~-~-> 02:00:30 |I do very much have to get off of here. I have a personal matter. I take care of
1220 |1219 |02:00:30 ~-~-> 02:00:36 |my wife's been sick, so I gotta clean nurse on top of that. So I didn't intend
1221 |1220 |02:00:36 ~-~-> 02:00:40 |to take a trade today. It's Non Farm Payroll. I hope that I have taught you
1222 |1221 |02:00:40 ~-~-> 02:00:44 |that you can have an analysis, you can have an expectation and still have a
1223 |1222 |02:00:44 ~-~-> 02:00:49 |profitable idea being wrong. I did not take the short. I'm not secretly taking
1224 |1223 |02:00:49 ~-~-> 02:00:54 |a short. I don't have anything to show you as an execution. What I shared today
1225 |1224 |02:00:54 ~-~-> 02:00:58 |was all there is for it. I hopefully have communicated the importance of
1226 |1225 |02:00:59 ~-~-> 02:01:05 |abstaining from this day, learning what they do with liquidity, how they run for
1227 |1226 |02:01:05 ~-~-> 02:01:08 |the inefficiencies in the lay of the land, the points and references that
1228 |1227 |02:01:08 ~-~-> 02:01:13 |I've mentioned, except for all the way up here, that buy side, up here, the
1229 |1228 |02:01:13 ~-~-> 02:01:18 |primary buy side, everything else has been pretty, pretty good for a case
1230 |1229 |02:01:18 ~-~-> 02:01:22 |study today, I would be pleased if I was Someone sitting in and watching what I
1231 |1230 |02:01:22 ~-~-> 02:01:27 |watched today, because it was, it was based on logic, not impulsive, chasing
1232 |1231 |02:01:27 ~-~-> 02:01:32 |price and just the sheer precision elements of it. It's just, it's just
1233 |1232 |02:01:32 ~-~-> 02:01:37 |wonderful. And even during this messy stuff that you would think the job is
1234 |1233 |02:01:37 ~-~-> 02:01:45 |real, the job is real. It's it's not, it's the precision is real. Okay,
1235 |1234 |02:01:45 ~-~-> 02:01:50 |that's, that's the reality of price. It's, it's that, and when price is not
1236 |1235 |02:01:50 ~-~-> 02:01:52 |illustrating that, when we were doing all this back and forth stuff I
1237 |1236 |02:01:52 ~-~-> 02:01:57 |mentioned, okay, are you seeing anything that showing elements of precision? Not
1238 |1237 |02:01:57 ~-~-> 02:02:02 |yet, until we had that. What I just described with the bodies, and then the
1239 |1238 |02:02:02 ~-~-> 02:02:06 |displacement lower, then that fair value got present itself. Boom, everything
1240 |1239 |02:02:06 ~-~-> 02:02:11 |dialed in like an eagle's eye. I trained in on that. I put your attention right
1241 |1240 |02:02:11 ~-~-> 02:02:16 |there, and the market delivered that. Now the trolls won't see that as
1242 |1241 |02:02:16 ~-~-> 02:02:20 |something useful. My question is, do you see that as useful? Do you see that as
1243 |1242 |02:02:20 ~-~-> 02:02:25 |something that is a signature in price action that tends to repeat. You're
1244 |1243 |02:02:25 ~-~-> 02:02:30 |seeing me actually identify it real time, and it frames the price run that
1245 |1244 |02:02:30 ~-~-> 02:02:34 |you see many times after the fact. And you're like, what causes that? How is he
1246 |1245 |02:02:34 ~-~-> 02:02:37 |able to do this? How does he keep getting away with this? It's because of
1247 |1246 |02:02:37 ~-~-> 02:02:42 |the logic I'm teaching you. It's real. There is an algorithm, whether you like
1248 |1247 |02:02:42 ~-~-> 02:02:46 |to believe it or not, and you can take advantage of these things. You can
1249 |1248 |02:02:46 ~-~-> 02:02:51 |exploit them, just like Smart Money does. They're doing that every single
1250 |1249 |02:02:51 ~-~-> 02:02:56 |day. So that's it for this one. Try to get some rest this weekend. I'm
1251 |1250 |02:02:56 ~-~-> 02:03:01 |certainly going to try to do that. I've been up most of tonight, plain nurse. So
1252 |1251 |02:03:02 ~-~-> 02:03:06 |I'm going to try to take care of what I gotta take care of, and if I can manage
1253 |1252 |02:03:06 ~-~-> 02:03:09 |to get a couple hours of sleep this afternoon, I'm gonna do that. Enjoy your
1254 |1253 |02:03:09 ~-~-> 02:03:15 |weekend, and Lord willing, I'll be back at it again next week. Until then, be
1255 |1254 |02:03:15 ~-~-> 02:03:15 |safe. You.