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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-08-31 08:08
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2 |1 |00:01:52 ~-~-> 00:01:54 |ICT: Uh huh, a lovely lady lumps
3 |2 |00:01:55 ~-~-> 00:02:00 |yeah. What's up? Good morning. Good morning. It's a good morning. It is a
4 |3 |00:02:00 ~-~-> 00:02:06 |good morning. Miss OBS was sparring with me again before I can get the stream
5 |4 |00:02:06 ~-~-> 00:02:11 |started. But that's okay. It's a little bit faster resolution for it this
6 |5 |00:02:11 ~-~-> 00:02:22 |morning. Hope you're doing well. It's obviously we are in the Thursday trading
7 |6 |00:02:22 ~-~-> 00:02:28 |session for indices. Our focus has been on the NASDAQ. As you can see on the
8 |7 |00:02:28 ~-~-> 00:02:32 |right hand side, that is a one minute chart reacting off of some random level
9 |8 |00:02:35 ~-~-> 00:02:39 |for the new week. I'm sorry, the new day opening gap. I
10 |9 |00:02:46 ~-~-> 00:02:53 |and upper left hand corner, we have the 15 minute time frame and then the five
11 |10 |00:02:53 ~-~-> 00:03:05 |minute time frame in the lower left. So we will be watching how we open. There's
12 |11 |00:03:05 ~-~-> 00:03:12 |going to be a rather large gap, so we'll be annotating that real quick here. This
13 |12 |00:03:12 ~-~-> 00:03:17 |is where we stop trading for regular trading session hours again, then lower
14 |13 |00:03:17 ~-~-> 00:03:23 |right hand corner. That's what we're toggling and then we're gonna
15 |14 |00:03:42 ~-~-> 00:03:56 |and we will use this. And then where we open up at 930 we will annotate that. So
16 |15 |00:03:56 ~-~-> 00:04:03 |right now it's trading at 348 so if I grab that highlight it, hold down,
17 |16 |00:04:03 ~-~-> 00:04:08 |control, drag away. And put it real close to that market price that we're at
18 |17 |00:04:08 ~-~-> 00:04:12 |right now. When I go back to electronic trading hours, it'll be there for me to
19 |18 |00:04:13 ~-~-> 00:04:28 |drop like that, and then I'll just change that now this and this will be
20 |19 |00:04:29 ~-~-> 00:04:35 |set to whatever the first opening price is at 930 in about 55 seconds or less.
21 |20 |00:04:37 ~-~-> 00:04:44 |So we have a rather large premium opening. This is a lot of lot of
22 |21 |00:04:44 ~-~-> 00:04:49 |movement from where we settled on the day session yesterday versus where we're
23 |22 |00:04:49 ~-~-> 00:04:54 |opening up. It doesn't mean always there's a complete return back to that,
24 |23 |00:04:54 ~-~-> 00:04:58 |that level down here, but we will look for indications that it will try to do
25 |24 |00:04:58 ~-~-> 00:05:03 |that. And right away, my. Interest is, I'd like to see this traded too. It need
26 |25 |00:05:03 ~-~-> 00:05:07 |not do anything in here. We're not trying to pick the top as I was talking
27 |26 |00:05:07 ~-~-> 00:05:14 |about yesterday. We want to see how the opening range. Opening range is the
28 |27 |00:05:14 ~-~-> 00:05:18 |first 30 minutes from 930 to 10am New York local time. If your time when
29 |28 |00:05:18 ~-~-> 00:05:22 |you're trading view platform is not set to New York. You need to set it to that.
30 |29 |00:05:23 ~-~-> 00:05:27 |That way, everything that you're learning in this YouTube channel is
31 |30 |00:05:27 ~-~-> 00:05:37 |germane. Here we are. So the opening price is 352 so I got to do is change it
32 |31 |00:05:37 ~-~-> 00:05:44 |to 352 all better, baby, right there. So now what what we're doing? We're just
33 |32 |00:05:44 ~-~-> 00:05:56 |going to watch and see. Does it have a run above the high here? That's where
34 |33 |00:05:56 ~-~-> 00:06:07 |our buy side liquidity is left.
35 |34 |00:06:15 ~-~-> 00:06:22 |Okay, so we're just going to sit and relax. I have an appointment at 1045
36 |35 |00:06:23 ~-~-> 00:06:29 |that I have to make. So we'll be going to around 1030 probably a few minutes
37 |36 |00:06:29 ~-~-> 00:06:36 |before 1030 so I'll sit with you through the the first 30 minutes after 10 so
38 |37 |00:06:36 ~-~-> 00:06:40 |hopefully we'll see some kind of a silver bullet I can walk with walk you
39 |38 |00:06:40 ~-~-> 00:06:40 |through.
40 |39 |00:07:00 ~-~-> 00:07:03 |And we have small little gap that we traded into here. We'll see if that
41 |40 |00:07:03 ~-~-> 00:07:06 |provides a means of engaging liquidity there. I'm
42 |41 |00:07:32 ~-~-> 00:07:40 |there you go. So that's one of those really easy bread and butter setups. We
43 |42 |00:07:40 ~-~-> 00:07:46 |can see that there's a pool of liquidity they're gonna they're gonna feed that's
44 |43 |00:07:46 ~-~-> 00:07:46 |Bailey.
45 |44 |00:07:51 ~-~-> 00:07:55 |Hang on one second. Let me text my wife and tell her to kennel you.
46 |45 |00:08:35 ~-~-> 00:08:45 |All right, so we had our little initial run after big pop at 830, completely
47 |46 |00:08:45 ~-~-> 00:08:49 |random. Who could expect something like that to occur? We have this volume
48 |47 |00:08:49 ~-~-> 00:08:53 |imbalance between these two bodies here. We treat it back up into that trading
49 |48 |00:08:53 ~-~-> 00:09:05 |there, and we have relative equal lows from here to here study that. So the
50 |49 |00:09:05 ~-~-> 00:09:13 |relative equal highs here, we saw it run above that, that small little gap right
51 |50 |00:09:13 ~-~-> 00:09:20 |there, small little one right there. Oh, I laid it for you. I just, can just
52 |51 |00:09:20 ~-~-> 00:09:27 |going to maximize this chart. We'll work with this one.
53 |52 |00:09:37 ~-~-> 00:09:41 |Keep it neutral. I don't want to influence you with the color, but I
54 |53 |00:09:41 ~-~-> 00:09:50 |don't need that following. So as we traded on to this here, I took your
55 |54 |00:09:50 ~-~-> 00:09:54 |attention there after, obviously it was sitting like right in here, but that
56 |55 |00:09:54 ~-~-> 00:10:01 |right there is still a point of entry, because you have a. Low, high, low or
57 |56 |00:10:01 ~-~-> 00:10:07 |low, you're in the breaker that could have been used as a more or less the
58 |57 |00:10:07 ~-~-> 00:10:10 |fair value gap. Does it respond off of it? Yes, you don't need the candle to
59 |58 |00:10:10 ~-~-> 00:10:16 |close. And then the liquidity was here. So looking at from this area here,
60 |59 |00:10:18 ~-~-> 00:10:22 |rallying up to take that liquidity, that's your first
61 |60 |00:10:28 ~-~-> 00:10:34 |screenshot you want to take and annotate that Caleb and have how much time it
62 |61 |00:10:34 ~-~-> 00:10:39 |took to run? Obviously, it doesn't take much. It's like one minute. How much
63 |62 |00:10:39 ~-~-> 00:10:44 |heat was on that fair value gap zero, and then there's immediate run to
64 |63 |00:10:44 ~-~-> 00:10:50 |liquidity. So now, because we've had this run here, and we've had the big run
65 |64 |00:10:50 ~-~-> 00:10:56 |up over the last few actually, like a week and a half, now, it's been going
66 |65 |00:10:56 ~-~-> 00:11:05 |higher. We had an 830 impulsive price run, creating the high here we opened
67 |66 |00:11:08 ~-~-> 00:11:17 |930 brand of buy side here, what's this? What is this? Right here?
68 |67 |00:11:22 ~-~-> 00:11:29 |I a premium wick. We're studying the buy side in here. We want to see, does it
69 |68 |00:11:29 ~-~-> 00:11:34 |want to come back? Because think about everybody that's long they're going to
70 |69 |00:11:34 ~-~-> 00:11:38 |trail their stop losses. Where are they going to jam them up to right below
71 |70 |00:11:38 ~-~-> 00:11:44 |here. So anyone that wanted to break out and go long, they're going to do it on a
72 |71 |00:11:44 ~-~-> 00:11:50 |break out above here. So they're in now. They already have people on the board,
73 |72 |00:11:50 ~-~-> 00:11:57 |net long and where are they going to put their stop loss, right below here, all
74 |73 |00:11:57 ~-~-> 00:12:04 |under here. And the carryover from yesterday and this morning at 830 when
75 |74 |00:12:04 ~-~-> 00:12:12 |we had the run up here off of today's new day, opening, gap rally,
76 |75 |00:12:12 ~-~-> 00:12:18 |institutional order, flow entry drill, Breakaway gap. This is where a bull flag
77 |76 |00:12:18 ~-~-> 00:12:24 |does work and then runs up this gap right here, and the liquidity, my focus
78 |77 |00:12:24 ~-~-> 00:12:28 |is here. I'm not trying to pick the top, but what I'm looking for is I want to
79 |78 |00:12:28 ~-~-> 00:12:35 |see, can we break below this gap that's in yellow? Okay, that's where my focus
80 |79 |00:12:35 ~-~-> 00:12:41 |is. My eye is there because I want to see, do we get below it? Come back up
81 |80 |00:12:41 ~-~-> 00:12:45 |and treat it as an inversion fair value gap that sends us into the liquidity
82 |81 |00:12:45 ~-~-> 00:12:52 |here and into this gap right there. So for the morning session, it's too rich,
83 |82 |00:12:52 ~-~-> 00:12:57 |too expensive right now to want to buy it. We have a gap higher opening. We've
84 |83 |00:12:57 ~-~-> 00:13:02 |had an initial run to buy side. I'm not chasing that. So we're back in the same
85 |84 |00:13:02 ~-~-> 00:13:08 |criteria that we were on. Was it Tuesday? So I will not buy premium like
86 |85 |00:13:08 ~-~-> 00:13:13 |this. This is, this is too rich, too expensive. And again, same thing. If it
87 |86 |00:13:13 ~-~-> 00:13:17 |wants to run, it'll run without me, and I'll wait later on, in the morning, 10
88 |87 |00:13:17 ~-~-> 00:13:20 |o'clock, I'll do something with the silver bullet there. It's always there.
89 |88 |00:13:21 ~-~-> 00:13:26 |It's never, it's never, not in the charts. Okay, so we have one more bump
90 |89 |00:13:26 ~-~-> 00:13:37 |above the high. And let me draw out the this is where my interest is for the
91 |90 |00:13:37 ~-~-> 00:13:38 |morning session. Thus far, I'm
92 |91 |00:13:47 ~-~-> 00:13:54 |and I don't know why I did that should be this color. There you go. I
93 |92 |00:14:04 ~-~-> 00:14:13 |So what we have here is we have low, high, low breaker. Breakers inside of
94 |93 |00:14:13 ~-~-> 00:14:17 |the new day opening gap. That's this level here, in that level, here we
95 |94 |00:14:17 ~-~-> 00:14:27 |consolidate, we drop down 830 boom takes off, leaves a gap here, relative equal
96 |95 |00:14:27 ~-~-> 00:14:34 |lows here, the highs have been taken. So what we're watching is the market being
97 |96 |00:14:34 ~-~-> 00:14:38 |made jagged on the upside after a large gap opening again. You can see that
98 |97 |00:14:38 ~-~-> 00:14:43 |here. See that big gap between where we settled yesterday and where we are here.
99 |98 |00:14:44 ~-~-> 00:14:50 |So that's why my interest is at that fair value gap and the that low, because
100 |99 |00:14:50 ~-~-> 00:14:54 |it's only been a consolidation run to the liquidity come back of a small,
101 |100 |00:14:54 ~-~-> 00:14:59 |little retracement, and then rally once more. So we're really we're really
102 |101 |00:14:59 ~-~-> 00:15:06 |expensive. Very, very expensive. And a lot of traders with deeper pockets are
103 |102 |00:15:06 ~-~-> 00:15:10 |going to wait for a discount, and they're not interested in trying to buy
104 |103 |00:15:10 ~-~-> 00:15:15 |these inflated prices. The public, the street, you know, the street money, or
105 |104 |00:15:15 ~-~-> 00:15:19 |quote, unquote dumb money. They'll, they'll buy it every single time it does
106 |105 |00:15:19 ~-~-> 00:15:24 |this, because they're, they're buying momentum, or they're shorting weakness.
107 |106 |00:15:24 ~-~-> 00:15:29 |So they're, they're cheap, they're always, perpetually chasing price. And
108 |107 |00:15:29 ~-~-> 00:15:33 |as a professionally minded speculator analyst, you want to be looking for
109 |108 |00:15:33 ~-~-> 00:15:39 |cheap, discounted prices to buy, and you want to sell expensive, premium priced
110 |109 |00:15:39 ~-~-> 00:15:44 |instruments. So it's very important to have those rules and write those things
111 |110 |00:15:44 ~-~-> 00:15:51 |down in your journal. Nothing forces you to pay too much. Nothing should make you
112 |111 |00:15:51 ~-~-> 00:15:54 |feel like you're going to miss out, so you're willing to pay a higher price for
113 |112 |00:15:54 ~-~-> 00:16:00 |it. If you have that rule in your trading, it's going to prevent a lot of
114 |113 |00:16:00 ~-~-> 00:16:06 |hard, heartache and hardships, because chasing price is never a good thing.
115 |114 |00:16:07 ~-~-> 00:16:11 |Very, very few and far between. Are there instances where chasing it and it
116 |115 |00:16:11 ~-~-> 00:16:16 |runs, you know, five, 608 points. It's very rare that it does that, but it's
117 |116 |00:16:16 ~-~-> 00:16:20 |more likely that it does these little go up, breakout, get people caught long,
118 |117 |00:16:20 ~-~-> 00:16:25 |and if they didn't get enough on that pass, here they have it now. So we have
119 |118 |00:16:25 ~-~-> 00:16:30 |123, now we have it with the candle layer. So we have three, three drives,
120 |119 |00:16:30 ~-~-> 00:16:36 |pattern higher inside liquidity. All of this is made jagged now. And I want to
121 |120 |00:16:36 ~-~-> 00:16:41 |see, can we get into this below it cheated as inversion, fair value gap, as
122 |121 |00:16:41 ~-~-> 00:16:45 |long as it doesn't trade below these lows or into this gap here, I'd like to
123 |122 |00:16:45 ~-~-> 00:16:49 |see it use that as a catalyst to bring us down into that and then,
124 |123 |00:16:50 ~-~-> 00:16:53 |hypothetically, Caleb, what you would say is I want to see if it does these
125 |124 |00:16:53 ~-~-> 00:16:57 |very things. This would be a screenshot that goes down there after King off
126 |125 |00:16:57 ~-~-> 00:17:02 |that. That's a screenshot for a short idea, but you're not demoing it. You're
127 |126 |00:17:02 ~-~-> 00:17:06 |not in any kind of actual trade. You're just watching it. And then you would
128 |127 |00:17:06 ~-~-> 00:17:10 |say, okay, partial taken here. And then you would look to see if it wants to get
129 |128 |00:17:10 ~-~-> 00:17:15 |down into this one. But you're taking one step at a time. You're not trying to
130 |129 |00:17:15 ~-~-> 00:17:20 |go in here and pick the top. You're not trying to you call the top. You're
131 |130 |00:17:20 ~-~-> 00:17:25 |looking for signatures to support an idea that you're hunting that will be
132 |131 |00:17:25 ~-~-> 00:17:29 |part of your repertoire and your model. You're not forcing your idea. You're not
133 |132 |00:17:29 ~-~-> 00:17:31 |arm wrestling. You're not trying to impose your will. You're not saying it
134 |133 |00:17:31 ~-~-> 00:17:36 |has to happen. You're watching to see if these things do in fact, form in price
135 |134 |00:17:36 ~-~-> 00:17:44 |action. Gotta be really, really relaxed. Try not to expect everything to pan out
136 |135 |00:17:47 ~-~-> 00:17:56 |to your wishes every day, because it's not going to be like that always. Okay?
137 |136 |00:17:56 ~-~-> 00:18:06 |Small little gap right here between that candle and this candle high I
138 |137 |00:18:17 ~-~-> 00:18:21 |keep telling myself, pour my water into a cup that wasn't it's not always making
139 |138 |00:18:21 ~-~-> 00:18:30 |that noise, but just think of it as ICT, s, Amr. I got people to leave comments
140 |139 |00:18:30 ~-~-> 00:18:34 |say, I like when you whisper. I wish you would talk your commentary and whispers.
141 |140 |00:18:35 ~-~-> 00:18:41 |Then I have other people saying, dude, why you whispering? I'm creeped out. And
142 |141 |00:18:41 ~-~-> 00:18:46 |you think, I'm bipolar, my audience is bipolar, and never, you know they're
143 |142 |00:18:46 ~-~-> 00:18:48 |never they're never satisfied. I
144 |143 |00:19:07 ~-~-> 00:19:11 |Okay, one more pass into the original buy side right here.
145 |144 |00:19:17 ~-~-> 00:19:21 |If you look back at what we've been doing since Tuesday, as I mentioned on
146 |145 |00:19:21 ~-~-> 00:19:24 |that day, I said even it wants, even if it wants to keep going higher, it's
147 |146 |00:19:24 ~-~-> 00:19:29 |okay. We're not trying to pick a top. We're not trying to pick a bottom, but
148 |147 |00:19:29 ~-~-> 00:19:36 |we're looking for logic to frame a a form of study that will helpfully,
149 |148 |00:19:36 ~-~-> 00:19:42 |hopefully and help formulate a routine that we go into price and we look for
150 |149 |00:19:42 ~-~-> 00:19:46 |these types of things to occur, and if they are not in the chart, you're
151 |150 |00:19:46 ~-~-> 00:19:53 |sitting still. It doesn't mean you your sub par, sub standard not able to trade,
152 |151 |00:19:53 ~-~-> 00:19:56 |because you're not looking at every one of these fluctuations and knowing it's
153 |152 |00:19:56 ~-~-> 00:20:01 |going to do it. That's irrelevant right now, the information. Is too premature,
154 |153 |00:20:02 ~-~-> 00:20:07 |and we're waiting. So I'm framing it on. I want to see it get below here. If it
155 |154 |00:20:07 ~-~-> 00:20:11 |keeps going higher, that's okay. I'll wait for more information, because 10
156 |155 |00:20:11 ~-~-> 00:20:16 |o'clock silver bullet, that's our main focus for the day. But we're watching
157 |156 |00:20:16 ~-~-> 00:20:20 |and observing the opening range, how we're behaving initially with the
158 |157 |00:20:20 ~-~-> 00:20:24 |liquidity sell side, which I should have this annotated, I apologize.
159 |158 |00:20:36 ~-~-> 00:20:54 |You. Uh, now, when we were looking at this gap here, as I was mentioning it, I
160 |159 |00:20:54 ~-~-> 00:20:59 |would have preferred to see this go and not come back down to that again. The
161 |160 |00:21:00 ~-~-> 00:21:04 |fact that it came down like that, to me is problematic. I don't want to see a
162 |161 |00:21:04 ~-~-> 00:21:10 |run do that. And it just feels like they keep sending it higher, sending it
163 |162 |00:21:10 ~-~-> 00:21:16 |higher. And all of this is work to get people in, going long or stopping out
164 |163 |00:21:16 ~-~-> 00:21:22 |anyone that's already short. So this is these types of days, or these types of
165 |164 |00:21:22 ~-~-> 00:21:27 |conditions. In early part of the session, you see people complain, Oh,
166 |165 |00:21:27 ~-~-> 00:21:30 |they're chopping me up. I get, I get, keep getting stopped out. I don't know.
167 |166 |00:21:30 ~-~-> 00:21:34 |It's just, you know, the CHOP is, you know, really messing me up. You just,
168 |167 |00:21:34 ~-~-> 00:21:39 |you have to learn to wait. It's nothing, nothing going on, just because we
169 |168 |00:21:39 ~-~-> 00:21:44 |annotate the gaps and the runs where it could reach to that's not your trade
170 |169 |00:21:44 ~-~-> 00:21:49 |setup. That's not Caleb setup. It's just worth studying delivery, how it behaves.
171 |170 |00:21:49 ~-~-> 00:21:54 |Is it able to hold on to these levels once they're being booked like we're I'm
172 |171 |00:21:54 ~-~-> 00:22:00 |studying this. This is where my my eye is. I'm looking at how price is held.
173 |172 |00:22:01 ~-~-> 00:22:02 |Above here,
174 |173 |00:22:16 ~-~-> 00:22:22 |all of this, I'm viewing that as potentially just a trap, keeping the
175 |174 |00:22:22 ~-~-> 00:22:26 |market there, holding it there and then, because it won't rally, or if it doesn't
176 |175 |00:22:26 ~-~-> 00:22:30 |rally to say it that way, doesn't if it doesn't go higher and paragraph, we
177 |176 |00:22:30 ~-~-> 00:22:36 |start running away higher. It's more likely that this is just being kind of
178 |177 |00:22:36 ~-~-> 00:22:41 |like a snare, holding traders in the hope that it's going to keep going
179 |178 |00:22:41 ~-~-> 00:22:44 |higher, because we had this big run at 830 they feel like they missed the move
180 |179 |00:22:44 ~-~-> 00:22:52 |we opened at 930 small little decline into a fair value gap and then back up
181 |180 |00:22:52 ~-~-> 00:22:57 |into the the buy side. So we we're working this area above this high, but
182 |181 |00:22:57 ~-~-> 00:23:04 |are we seeing any immediate runs higher since then, not yet it can. But I don't
183 |182 |00:23:04 ~-~-> 00:23:09 |want to trade this early, because these are generally times where you can get
184 |183 |00:23:09 ~-~-> 00:23:12 |caught off guard or offside. That means you're on the wrong side of the
185 |184 |00:23:12 ~-~-> 00:23:19 |marketplace. So I would rather err on the side of caution and wait for the
186 |185 |00:23:19 ~-~-> 00:23:23 |information I've already given you. I want to see this gap trade down through
187 |186 |00:23:23 ~-~-> 00:23:27 |it, treat it as inversion, fair value gap, and reach for this liquidity and
188 |187 |00:23:27 ~-~-> 00:23:31 |maybe get as far as down here, and it can still go higher. Just look at how it
189 |188 |00:23:31 ~-~-> 00:23:39 |traded yesterday. Okay, so give me another higher high. So same thing here.
190 |189 |00:23:39 ~-~-> 00:23:44 |I'm still viewing this as all of this could be 10, could potentially just be
191 |190 |00:23:44 ~-~-> 00:23:50 |holding traders in, trapping them at a higher price, and then break them lower,
192 |191 |00:23:51 ~-~-> 00:23:54 |because they could do two things by doing that. Number one, it's going to
193 |192 |00:23:54 ~-~-> 00:23:57 |cause pain for anyone that bought a breakout. I'm not interested in buying a
194 |193 |00:23:57 ~-~-> 00:24:03 |breakout if, if it Rawlings and keeps going higher. It's okay. It's a move
195 |194 |00:24:03 ~-~-> 00:24:07 |that I'm not a part of. Go back to the lecture I gave on Tuesdays live stream.
196 |195 |00:24:07 ~-~-> 00:24:15 |I guess that would be what the seventh just look at whatever Tuesday's date is,
197 |196 |00:24:16 ~-~-> 00:24:21 |and that that lecture talks about what I'm willing to endure, what I'm looking
198 |197 |00:24:21 ~-~-> 00:24:25 |for, what I will not be interested in trading on, and when I let price go
199 |198 |00:24:25 ~-~-> 00:24:33 |without me. So because we've had this big run up since 830 let's put something
200 |199 |00:24:33 ~-~-> 00:24:42 |back in the chart again. This is all euphoria, and then we had a high we
201 |200 |00:24:42 ~-~-> 00:24:47 |open. Traded above it, traded above it, traded above it, traded now we're here.
202 |201 |00:24:48 ~-~-> 00:24:51 |I'm not interested in taking that long. I don't want to buy this. I don't want
203 |202 |00:24:51 ~-~-> 00:24:55 |to I wouldn't take a fair value gap in here to go down into the trade higher,
204 |203 |00:24:55 ~-~-> 00:25:00 |because it's too long in the tooth. That means it's too far straight. Reached
205 |204 |00:25:00 ~-~-> 00:25:05 |out, and it's more likely to try to revert back to a fair value. What is
206 |205 |00:25:05 ~-~-> 00:25:12 |that? Where liquidity is below lows, below lows, gaps relative equal lows.
207 |206 |00:25:13 ~-~-> 00:25:18 |This gap here, this consolidation, there's a lot of liquidity and interest
208 |207 |00:25:18 ~-~-> 00:25:22 |to protect a long position right right below here, because it's moved up a lot,
209 |208 |00:25:22 ~-~-> 00:25:26 |real quick. So traders are going to want to place in their stop loss just below
210 |209 |00:25:26 ~-~-> 00:25:30 |that, to protect and preserve the majority of all this move. If they were
211 |210 |00:25:30 ~-~-> 00:25:33 |happy or lucky enough to be part of it.
212 |211 |00:25:42 ~-~-> 00:26:05 |I'm okay, 950
213 |212 |00:26:15 ~-~-> 00:26:19 |just about nine minutes before silver bullet, 10 o'clock hour begins. I
214 |213 |00:26:26 ~-~-> 00:26:27 |i 52 year old bones cracking. Just
215 |214 |00:26:41 ~-~-> 00:26:49 |want to take a peek at ES. So ES is lagging a little bit, so that means it's
216 |215 |00:26:49 ~-~-> 00:26:57 |probably going to either see NQ stay at its highs and allow ES to catch up,
217 |216 |00:26:59 ~-~-> 00:27:04 |meaning that, yes, it should be going above this high. But if we start to see
218 |217 |00:27:05 ~-~-> 00:27:13 |NASDAQ break down and es fails to go this high or higher, we have
219 |218 |00:27:19 ~-~-> 00:27:26 |my eyes going here. So if it's going here, I like that gap for ES. So for
220 |219 |00:27:26 ~-~-> 00:27:32 |those that are watching es, just look at it like this. It's easier to for me to
221 |220 |00:27:32 ~-~-> 00:27:35 |draw that level there, but it still might first initially take out that
222 |221 |00:27:35 ~-~-> 00:27:41 |high, because we have NASDAQ flexing today, strutting our shit.
223 |222 |00:28:00 ~-~-> 00:28:04 |Remember, we're not trying to pick the end of the up move, because it's an
224 |223 |00:28:04 ~-~-> 00:28:11 |election year. I told you many times, even in Twitter spaces last year and the
225 |224 |00:28:11 ~-~-> 00:28:16 |year before election years, they tried to pump up the stock market because they
226 |225 |00:28:16 ~-~-> 00:28:20 |like to make the incumbent president look like they've done well for the
227 |226 |00:28:20 ~-~-> 00:28:24 |economy. But the stock market is not indicative of a measurement of the
228 |227 |00:28:24 ~-~-> 00:28:30 |economy. It's just a speculative Casino. So it's kind of like a built in self
229 |228 |00:28:30 ~-~-> 00:28:40 |fulfilling prophecy. Election years tend to have a built in by model. It just
230 |229 |00:28:40 ~-~-> 00:28:43 |keeps going higher, pressing higher. It's easier for the market to go higher
231 |230 |00:28:44 ~-~-> 00:28:46 |on election years than it is to drop.
232 |231 |00:28:51 ~-~-> 00:28:56 |And you add that to the built in premise that stocks are meant to go up, the
233 |232 |00:28:56 ~-~-> 00:29:00 |market's meant to go up. It's you're fighting on a losing battle if you're
234 |233 |00:29:00 ~-~-> 00:29:04 |trying to, you know, trying to short every instance that the market gives you
235 |234 |00:29:04 ~-~-> 00:29:10 |some kind of a broken wing tactic, like, oh, look, I'm, I'm about to go down, and
236 |235 |00:29:10 ~-~-> 00:29:14 |you go in, you try to short it. You get chopped up like this, which is why I
237 |236 |00:29:14 ~-~-> 00:29:19 |have adopted models where I have to see certain things traded to and then you
238 |237 |00:29:19 ~-~-> 00:29:24 |got folks that may listen to this or watch it, and they'll say, this guy,
239 |238 |00:29:24 ~-~-> 00:29:26 |this guy doesn't know where the market's going. I know where it's going. It's
240 |239 |00:29:26 ~-~-> 00:29:30 |going to keep pushing and squeezing against people that want to go short,
241 |240 |00:29:31 ~-~-> 00:29:35 |because everything tells me that's wanting to go down here. But I have to
242 |241 |00:29:35 ~-~-> 00:29:41 |wait for it to stop doing this part of it. And my rules say it's gotta give me
243 |242 |00:29:41 ~-~-> 00:29:46 |this first. Well, you're you're missing out on all this. Are you in it? Did you
244 |243 |00:29:46 ~-~-> 00:29:52 |go long? I'm not taking anything unless it makes sense, because I don't want to
245 |244 |00:29:52 ~-~-> 00:29:55 |take a trade. I don't want to go into a trade. I don't want to have a an
246 |245 |00:29:55 ~-~-> 00:30:01 |emotional tie or concern about the outcome of price flow. Situation unless
247 |246 |00:30:01 ~-~-> 00:30:05 |it fits the criteria that I anticipate seeing, and if it doesn't have those,
248 |247 |00:30:06 ~-~-> 00:30:11 |those hallmarks, those indications, what am I doing? I'm gambling. Then, if
249 |248 |00:30:11 ~-~-> 00:30:15 |that's what, I'm not following a rule, if I'm not following a model, then I'm
250 |249 |00:30:15 ~-~-> 00:30:22 |just chasing price. And that's stupidity. We already know that there's
251 |250 |00:30:22 ~-~-> 00:30:26 |a likelihood for it to keep going higher. But even if it does go higher,
252 |251 |00:30:27 ~-~-> 00:30:31 |it has to drop and have some kind of a retracement, some price swing that
253 |252 |00:30:31 ~-~-> 00:30:37 |upsets liquidity on the on the downside, sell side, sell side has to be engaged.
254 |253 |00:30:37 ~-~-> 00:30:46 |Because my mentality is, I know that entities with larger pools of income and
255 |254 |00:30:47 ~-~-> 00:30:53 |equity and money to put on a trade better and greater than I do, they're
256 |255 |00:30:53 ~-~-> 00:30:57 |not willing to take any interest in the market when it's rallying initially,
257 |256 |00:30:57 ~-~-> 00:31:02 |right out there opening up this it would rather be more likely that they'll wait
258 |257 |00:31:02 ~-~-> 00:31:06 |for the market to come back and go into a pool of liquidity where there's deeper
259 |258 |00:31:06 ~-~-> 00:31:10 |discounted prices, and that's always going to be below old lows, singular or
260 |259 |00:31:10 ~-~-> 00:31:17 |relatively equal lows. And waiting for those instances is far better than just
261 |260 |00:31:17 ~-~-> 00:31:21 |simply saying it keeps going up. Just keeps going up. Let me just get in here,
262 |261 |00:31:21 ~-~-> 00:31:23 |because it might just keep going it could you going. It could it could keep,
263 |262 |00:31:23 ~-~-> 00:31:28 |just keep great on going up today and just like on Tuesday. I don't care. I
264 |263 |00:31:28 ~-~-> 00:31:32 |don't care about that, because I'm not trying to be just a part of the move. I
265 |264 |00:31:32 ~-~-> 00:31:37 |want to be in a setup that I have framed with logic that I've recognized, I've
266 |265 |00:31:37 ~-~-> 00:31:41 |seen before, and I'm not just going in there for the sake of I want to put
267 |266 |00:31:41 ~-~-> 00:31:46 |another coin in the slot machine to see if I can get a jackpot today. That's
268 |267 |00:31:46 ~-~-> 00:31:55 |gambling. So in other words, it has to make sense, or I'm not doing it. I'll
269 |268 |00:31:55 ~-~-> 00:31:58 |let other people out there demo and do the trades and try to fade me and say, I
270 |269 |00:31:58 ~-~-> 00:32:02 |did this. But you won't have any logic behind it. It was just because you
271 |270 |00:32:02 ~-~-> 00:32:07 |wanted to say you did something different. I was reading Tom just chat
272 |271 |00:32:08 ~-~-> 00:32:14 |yesterday while I was going back over the people I like looking at, and I'm
273 |272 |00:32:14 ~-~-> 00:32:17 |reading the comments or saying, ICT doesn't know where, where the market's
274 |273 |00:32:17 ~-~-> 00:32:20 |going to go. Even ICT is doesn't even know where the market's going. I was
275 |274 |00:32:20 ~-~-> 00:32:24 |outlining it yesterday. These people are really, really, really funny.
276 |275 |00:32:36 ~-~-> 00:32:47 |Let's take a peek at the let's look at the weekly chart.
277 |276 |00:32:58 ~-~-> 00:32:58 |Right here. I'm
278 |277 |00:33:06 ~-~-> 00:33:13 |so 440, 4.5 is that what that is? It looks like it
279 |278 |00:33:19 ~-~-> 00:33:28 |all right, and now we can go so we're trading in the middle or consequent
280 |279 |00:33:28 ~-~-> 00:33:33 |correction of that weekly gap, or weekly wick, which we treat as a gap. So I want
281 |280 |00:33:33 ~-~-> 00:33:36 |to see, does it start to peter out and run out of steam? Here I'm
282 |281 |00:33:43 ~-~-> 00:33:50 |it powers through and goes higher that same level, 444, 50 or so could act as
283 |282 |00:33:50 ~-~-> 00:33:54 |an inversion level, but I'm not trying to do anything with it unless it goes
284 |283 |00:33:54 ~-~-> 00:33:59 |back down through it comes back up And then treats it as A means of support. I
285 |284 |00:34:44 ~-~-> 00:34:45 |Yeah, that's beautiful.
286 |285 |00:34:52 ~-~-> 00:34:55 |The other reason why I'd like to see it trade lower before I would ever want to
287 |286 |00:34:55 ~-~-> 00:35:01 |go long is if you look at the opening range, it's annotated. I. With the high
288 |287 |00:35:01 ~-~-> 00:35:07 |of it here, which is the opening price at 930, many times. Many, many times.
289 |288 |00:35:07 ~-~-> 00:35:11 |Even when you have runs that just start running like this, they'll want to come
290 |289 |00:35:11 ~-~-> 00:35:15 |back down, in this case, to come down and touch the opening range high, which
291 |290 |00:35:15 ~-~-> 00:35:19 |is simply the opening price. And then if it wants to keep going higher, then it
292 |291 |00:35:19 ~-~-> 00:35:22 |can start to go higher and press through that going into the close of the week.
293 |292 |00:35:24 ~-~-> 00:35:29 |Either way, this is still nothing I would chase. I would not want to be a
294 |293 |00:35:29 ~-~-> 00:35:35 |part of that. And I can understand if you're new, or if you're rather a
295 |294 |00:35:35 ~-~-> 00:35:38 |novice. You've been trading for a little while, you may be demonstrating, maybe
296 |295 |00:35:38 ~-~-> 00:35:42 |you passed a fund account but never got to pay out. And you're just always
297 |296 |00:35:42 ~-~-> 00:35:47 |constantly looking to validate yourself by having criticism directed towards
298 |297 |00:35:47 ~-~-> 00:35:51 |somebody else. If I'm sitting out here and everybody knows I'm a little bit of
299 |298 |00:35:51 ~-~-> 00:35:56 |a loud mouth, and you see, runs like this, and you're saying, well, he
300 |299 |00:35:56 ~-~-> 00:36:02 |should, he should be part of that. Well, I'm not interested personally in trying
301 |300 |00:36:02 ~-~-> 00:36:06 |to chase after that, and that's that's been my roles ever since I stepped out
302 |301 |00:36:06 ~-~-> 00:36:12 |as a trader, educator type guru, if you want to call it that, you'll see more
303 |302 |00:36:12 ~-~-> 00:36:18 |instances of trying to chase it and then failing. Then it just keeps going higher
304 |303 |00:36:18 ~-~-> 00:36:21 |and higher and higher and never turns around like these are unsustainable
305 |304 |00:36:21 ~-~-> 00:36:27 |price runs. There has to be some kind of a retracement. And if you don't blame
306 |305 |00:36:27 ~-~-> 00:36:31 |me, go in with your account and trade it and see how hard it is to hold it number
307 |306 |00:36:31 ~-~-> 00:36:37 |one. Every little fluctuation or candlestick that stays small and doesn't
308 |307 |00:36:37 ~-~-> 00:36:42 |really rally, you're going to start feeling all of this anxiety because
309 |308 |00:36:42 ~-~-> 00:36:49 |you're like, oh man, oh man, because two, it's two perfectly one sided. And
310 |309 |00:36:49 ~-~-> 00:36:52 |to me, that's just too enticing for someone to get raked across the coals.
311 |310 |00:36:52 ~-~-> 00:36:59 |And I'm not willing to be the person to do that. So I will give up price runs
312 |311 |00:36:59 ~-~-> 00:37:04 |like that, just like on Tuesday, it's not important to me. It has to make
313 |312 |00:37:04 ~-~-> 00:37:05 |sense. So We're in 10 o'clock now. You
314 |313 |00:37:51 ~-~-> 00:37:58 |the Dow. It's another reason why I'm not a fan of going in it, because NASDAQ is
315 |314 |00:37:58 ~-~-> 00:38:04 |the only one. Only one isn't interesting that I'm live streaming, and I'm telling
316 |315 |00:38:04 ~-~-> 00:38:08 |I'm not looking for it to go higher, I'm looking for it to go lower and keep
317 |316 |00:38:08 ~-~-> 00:38:12 |driving it higher, keep because some of you are probably trying to predict and
318 |317 |00:38:12 ~-~-> 00:38:17 |trying to capture the high and trying to go short. And if anyone's doing that,
319 |318 |00:38:17 ~-~-> 00:38:21 |you're you're providing liquidity for that market to keep rebooking higher
320 |319 |00:38:22 ~-~-> 00:38:25 |because they know they can use your trade to book that higher price that
321 |320 |00:38:25 ~-~-> 00:38:28 |they keep pumping out into the marketplace. They keep offering higher
322 |321 |00:38:28 ~-~-> 00:38:31 |prices. And you go into the market order, you go in with the limb order
323 |322 |00:38:31 ~-~-> 00:38:36 |that meets that criteria. They keep pushing price the whole time, Dow. And I
324 |323 |00:38:36 ~-~-> 00:38:42 |don't make the case for SMT, just on the basis of Dow, but look at down compared
325 |324 |00:38:42 ~-~-> 00:38:52 |to ES. This is SMT. Look at the ES, oops. That's the wrong one. It's gonna
326 |325 |00:38:52 ~-~-> 00:38:56 |say, Wow, we gotta. We got a real mixed market now. So we have the higher high
327 |326 |00:38:56 ~-~-> 00:39:08 |there, but we don't have it with the the Dow and go back into NQ. There we go. So
328 |327 |00:39:08 ~-~-> 00:39:17 |we could be forming an enemy term high here for NASDAQ, and I'm interested in,
329 |328 |00:39:21 ~-~-> 00:39:31 |let me leave that there for now. I'm interested in this gap right here, right
330 |329 |00:39:31 ~-~-> 00:39:31 |there.
331 |330 |00:39:41 ~-~-> 00:39:46 |So now, because we've had this elongated run in market, protraction higher
332 |331 |00:39:46 ~-~-> 00:39:50 |digging in, digging in, digging in, taking anybody that wants to be short
333 |332 |00:39:50 ~-~-> 00:39:55 |out, building in people net long. So now they have counter parties that they've
334 |333 |00:39:55 ~-~-> 00:40:02 |sold to. Initial fair value is. This not fair value gap. Fair value, for the sake
335 |334 |00:40:02 ~-~-> 00:40:09 |of fair value, is the opening range high, which is the 930 opening price. So
336 |335 |00:40:09 ~-~-> 00:40:14 |it's in my interest to see drawing back down into that and touching that again,
337 |336 |00:40:14 ~-~-> 00:40:18 |even if it wants to go higher, that's fine. That thing pops up. I'm
338 |337 |00:40:24 ~-~-> 00:40:28 |right? So now say you're long and you were chasing it here because you wanted
339 |338 |00:40:28 ~-~-> 00:40:31 |to fade ICT, because ICT said I wouldn't buy this. I'm gonna go long and I'm
340 |339 |00:40:31 ~-~-> 00:40:34 |gonna be able to show social media that I went long. Well, You're shitting
341 |340 |00:40:34 ~-~-> 00:40:42 |yourself now, I went a little bit more than that, just opening and touching
342 |341 |00:40:42 ~-~-> 00:40:43 |that it's not enough.
343 |342 |00:40:51 ~-~-> 00:41:02 |Don't ask me why they say it, but I woke up singing that this morning. I
344 |343 |00:41:23 ~-~-> 00:41:35 |so I have, I have a Samsung Galaxy Note, 20. I think I forgot what it is. It's,
345 |344 |00:41:35 ~-~-> 00:41:46 |I've had it for like, two years, and I did the update on it. There's our
346 |345 |00:41:46 ~-~-> 00:41:53 |inversion there that you got the now the top of my screen, on the top edge of it,
347 |346 |00:41:53 ~-~-> 00:41:59 |it flickers and it doesn't show the full, like on YouTube, everything is
348 |347 |00:41:59 ~-~-> 00:42:05 |truncated. Doesn't show everything, and my emails don't don't show, and my
349 |348 |00:42:05 ~-~-> 00:42:10 |charts don't show. So it's something at the top of the screen, so that, I guess
350 |349 |00:42:10 ~-~-> 00:42:15 |that's that planned, obsolete stuff they do. Well, guess you got to get a new
351 |350 |00:42:15 ~-~-> 00:42:20 |phone, don't you it? Nope, this is my last album. I'm not buying another one
352 |351 |00:42:20 ~-~-> 00:42:21 |that can suck my ass. We
353 |352 |00:42:37 ~-~-> 00:42:41 |want to see it if it wants to trade back to here. We want to see it get below
354 |353 |00:42:42 ~-~-> 00:42:46 |consequence correction of that wick right now. It's potentially useful using
355 |354 |00:42:46 ~-~-> 00:42:53 |it as support to go back up into this inefficiency once more. So in other
356 |355 |00:42:53 ~-~-> 00:43:00 |words, we can see a spike or a wick above the inversion of their Vega can
357 |356 |00:43:00 ~-~-> 00:43:06 |spike up into that, but the body stay inside of it. That's that's okay. In my
358 |357 |00:43:06 ~-~-> 00:43:10 |mind, it's permissible. I don't want to see it go back up to here, because that
359 |358 |00:43:10 ~-~-> 00:43:15 |would mean that this is an exhaustion gap, and it's moved away aggressively.
360 |359 |00:43:16 ~-~-> 00:43:19 |This one here, it can be traded up into, but I'd like to see the upper portion of
361 |360 |00:43:19 ~-~-> 00:43:26 |it stay open, so let me zoom in, so that way you can see it maximize first.
362 |361 |00:43:32 ~-~-> 00:43:44 |Think of it like this. High there's half, so I would like to see this
363 |362 |00:43:44 ~-~-> 00:43:56 |portion up here. Stay open. So like this here, so that I
364 |363 |00:44:24 ~-~-> 00:44:30 |Okay, so any little spiking up with a wick, but the body staying inside of
365 |364 |00:44:30 ~-~-> 00:44:35 |that shaded area here validates this as an inversion fair value gap. So now,
366 |365 |00:44:36 ~-~-> 00:44:41 |say, on a day like this, where you keep seeing just keep driving higher, higher,
367 |366 |00:44:41 ~-~-> 00:44:47 |higher, higher. And it's, I guess I don't want to use the words, I won't. I
368 |367 |00:44:47 ~-~-> 00:44:53 |won't use the words. It's a it's more difficult for you to get a read on it.
369 |368 |00:44:53 ~-~-> 00:44:56 |You don't want to trust buying it, because it's going higher. And it's been
370 |369 |00:44:56 ~-~-> 00:45:02 |going straight up from the open but it's also had a. Run at 830 so every Tom Dick
371 |370 |00:45:02 ~-~-> 00:45:07 |and Harry Street Money is trying to buy this today, right off the open and
372 |371 |00:45:07 ~-~-> 00:45:15 |they've rewarded them with a sugar rush. But you see the things I'm showing here,
373 |372 |00:45:16 ~-~-> 00:45:21 |this gap, we want to see a trade there. There's a inefficiency here, this one,
374 |373 |00:45:21 ~-~-> 00:45:30 |we want to see that treated as an exhausting gap. This one, we want to see
375 |374 |00:45:30 ~-~-> 00:45:33 |it stay open in the upper half of it, because if it can't trade up into this
376 |375 |00:45:33 ~-~-> 00:45:37 |portion of it, that means it's really heavy, and we can have a strong
377 |376 |00:45:37 ~-~-> 00:45:42 |conviction. I would rather I would have a strong conviction about it,
378 |377 |00:45:42 ~-~-> 00:45:47 |potentially returning back to the 930 opening price and leaving that pink area
379 |378 |00:45:47 ~-~-> 00:45:53 |up here unfilled. Okay, and all, it's not, don't completely close it in. Can
380 |379 |00:45:53 ~-~-> 00:45:57 |it go up there and close that in and still go lower? Yes, it's just a matter
381 |380 |00:45:57 ~-~-> 00:46:05 |of, I prefer it not to do that. We've had one, two little wicks above outside
382 |381 |00:46:05 ~-~-> 00:46:09 |of this, but where the bodies are inside of it, inside of that gap, right there,
383 |382 |00:46:13 ~-~-> 00:46:19 |we found our way through the midpoint of this gap, which is the discount wick. So
384 |383 |00:46:19 ~-~-> 00:46:25 |halfway, let me get all these extra lines off. Nice. I'm sorry I was running
385 |384 |00:46:25 ~-~-> 00:46:37 |standard deviations on S P last night, and I left them on my dog. So here's the
386 |385 |00:46:37 ~-~-> 00:46:42 |consequence of that. I don't like the fact that we were bumping up again in
387 |386 |00:46:42 ~-~-> 00:46:47 |here after making lower attempts to go lower. So now go back into thinking that
388 |387 |00:46:47 ~-~-> 00:46:52 |it could very well go in here once more, maybe touch the low, which is consequent
389 |388 |00:46:52 ~-~-> 00:46:57 |encroachment of this low, that candle high. But this portion, I want to see
390 |389 |00:46:57 ~-~-> 00:47:01 |that stay open if it completely rolls over top of that pink area and trades
391 |390 |00:47:01 ~-~-> 00:47:06 |higher. I'm standing still, and I'm gonna have no bias, and it would be a
392 |391 |00:47:06 ~-~-> 00:47:12 |no, no touch, no trade, not doing anything. And I would then wait until 11
393 |392 |00:47:12 ~-~-> 00:47:16 |o'clock, 1130 to try to trade against whatever's been in the marketplace up
394 |393 |00:47:16 ~-~-> 00:47:22 |until that point. And I would use that as a lunch macro, and I'll fade the run
395 |394 |00:47:22 ~-~-> 00:47:26 |at that time, and I'll look for similar situations. So here we are. We have We
396 |395 |00:47:26 ~-~-> 00:47:35 |spiked up into that portion here, which is permissible. If we can get a close
397 |396 |00:47:36 ~-~-> 00:47:41 |below this point here, that would indicate that it's most likely going to
398 |397 |00:47:41 ~-~-> 00:47:45 |roll over and then return back into the opening range.
399 |398 |00:48:00 ~-~-> 00:48:05 |Having done this as long as I have. I'm very, very appreciative of having the
400 |399 |00:48:06 ~-~-> 00:48:11 |patience that as a younger man I would not have had. I would have been chomping
401 |400 |00:48:11 ~-~-> 00:48:14 |at the bit. Every time it rallied up. I've been like, Oh man, I wish I would
402 |401 |00:48:14 ~-~-> 00:48:18 |have bought that. I wish I would have bought that, and seeing how it's
403 |402 |00:48:18 ~-~-> 00:48:24 |trading. Now I'm I'm thankful that I had endured the painful lessons that I had
404 |403 |00:48:24 ~-~-> 00:48:29 |to endure, because if I didn't, I would have, I would have never learned any
405 |404 |00:48:29 ~-~-> 00:48:38 |other way, because I had initial luck, and that's always a bad thing. It ain't
406 |405 |00:48:38 ~-~-> 00:48:45 |made on skill and real ability, and it's just luck you can't hang your hat. You
407 |406 |00:48:45 ~-~-> 00:48:49 |can't hang your hat on that and feel good about it, and it certainly doesn't
408 |407 |00:48:49 ~-~-> 00:48:50 |bolster confidence.
409 |408 |00:48:56 ~-~-> 00:49:01 |There we go. Touch the consequent encroachment. And again, I want to see
410 |409 |00:49:01 ~-~-> 00:49:09 |this portion stay open. And if it trades through it and above it, my interest is
411 |410 |00:49:09 ~-~-> 00:49:15 |over. I'm not doing anything with it. And if I have time, I may stream the
412 |411 |00:49:15 ~-~-> 00:49:20 |afternoon in that event. No promises, but that would be Something I might want
413 |412 |00:49:20 ~-~-> 00:49:21 |to do.
414 |413 |00:49:42 ~-~-> 00:50:22 |You I click peak at Yes, I'm looking at everything just like you would if you
415 |414 |00:50:22 ~-~-> 00:50:28 |don't have all the real estate I have in hardware and charts and stuff. I had my
416 |415 |00:50:28 ~-~-> 00:50:34 |single laptop. I'm in my basement laying on my wife's love sack here, using the
417 |416 |00:50:34 ~-~-> 00:50:38 |foot stool as my pedestal for my laptop, which is probably not a good idea.
418 |417 |00:50:38 ~-~-> 00:50:53 |That's why it's so hot, it's not even able to vent. Anyhow, and then take
419 |418 |00:50:53 ~-~-> 00:51:03 |quick look at the Dow new participation. So we have a mixed condition where we
420 |419 |00:51:03 ~-~-> 00:51:09 |don't have all three averages agreeing. That's also something that if this would
421 |420 |00:51:09 ~-~-> 00:51:13 |have been like the s, p, then it really would have been problematic to be a
422 |421 |00:51:13 ~-~-> 00:51:24 |buyer. For me, I don't need all that. I It feels like they're going to wipe that
423 |422 |00:51:24 ~-~-> 00:51:30 |high one more time, just because I'm outlining it for retracement. And if I
424 |423 |00:51:30 ~-~-> 00:51:36 |was making the market and I still was live stream, I would do that too, and
425 |424 |00:51:36 ~-~-> 00:51:37 |then I'd sync it after
426 |425 |00:51:42 ~-~-> 00:51:46 |that, I see that timing You think I don't know what you're Doing,
427 |426 |00:51:51 ~-~-> 00:54:13 |though. I So so far we've had this entire gap closing here. The bodies are
428 |427 |00:54:13 ~-~-> 00:54:19 |stopping. That one little little millhack outside of that range. This
429 |428 |00:54:19 ~-~-> 00:54:26 |portion, again, I'm viewing that as a exhaustion. Press press, press press
430 |429 |00:54:26 ~-~-> 00:54:33 |higher. Trade below the gap I have interest in this.
431 |430 |00:54:41 ~-~-> 00:54:43 |Feels like they want to pump it one more time. I.
432 |431 |00:57:10 ~-~-> 00:57:18 |I swear that why anybody likes to trade the Dow is beyond me. Is so ugly, it's
433 |432 |00:57:18 ~-~-> 00:57:21 |only 30 stocks so sloppy.
434 |433 |00:57:34 ~-~-> 00:57:43 |So now here's what we have. You have the market has dropped short, uh, Heather,
435 |434 |00:57:43 ~-~-> 00:57:44 |stop loss here.
436 |435 |00:57:51 ~-~-> 00:57:58 |Not this one, this one, if we get a higher high, because I have to make my
437 |436 |00:57:58 ~-~-> 00:58:03 |escape here. My appointments coming up, I'm gonna make sure I get off here and
438 |437 |00:58:03 ~-~-> 00:58:11 |be ready for it, because it's a fun conversation I have to have. So okay,
439 |438 |00:58:11 ~-~-> 00:58:16 |we're in this area here, so that means it's probably going to run this high. If
440 |439 |00:58:16 ~-~-> 00:58:21 |it runs the high, then I would look for it to break down. If we can get back
441 |440 |00:58:21 ~-~-> 00:58:26 |below this gap, this I would like to see that act as an inversion for everybody.
442 |441 |00:58:26 ~-~-> 00:58:37 |Gap. No trades have been taken, no, no face needs to be saved, no, no pain, no
443 |442 |00:58:37 ~-~-> 00:58:42 |embarrassment, no nothing. It has to, it has to provide me the information, or
444 |443 |00:58:42 ~-~-> 00:58:49 |there's nothing. And I'm I'm not going to co sign on market action that I'm
445 |444 |00:58:49 ~-~-> 00:58:53 |not, I'm not comfortable with, and that's the whole point of teaching my
446 |445 |00:58:53 ~-~-> 00:58:57 |son this way, because it's not about getting in a trade system because you
447 |446 |00:58:57 ~-~-> 00:59:06 |have a trade so I'd like to see it bump to high one more time. That would that
448 |447 |00:59:06 ~-~-> 00:59:12 |would give the Street Money comfort that they're they're probably right, and then
449 |448 |00:59:12 ~-~-> 00:59:17 |they would raise their stop loss below here. So this is where a second pool of
450 |449 |00:59:17 ~-~-> 00:59:21 |liquidity is metal, equal lows. It's
451 |450 |00:59:27 ~-~-> 00:59:32 |going to go up there. It should do it now, because you had a gap, it overshot.
452 |451 |00:59:32 ~-~-> 00:59:37 |It went into that gap here. So it should spring up there and clear that high
453 |452 |00:59:39 ~-~-> 00:59:39 |this. You
454 |453 |01:00:03 ~-~-> 01:00:12 |I might, I might live stream this evening, this afternoon, rather, if I
455 |454 |01:00:12 ~-~-> 01:00:18 |do, you'll see a post on my community post on my community tab on the YouTube
456 |455 |01:00:18 ~-~-> 01:00:29 |channel. It wouldn't be before it would probably be 145 if I do it at all.
457 |456 |01:00:35 ~-~-> 01:00:40 |But this for Caleb's learning, he would be doing nothing. He wouldn't do
458 |457 |01:00:40 ~-~-> 01:00:45 |anything today because the time constraints have already expired for
459 |458 |01:00:45 ~-~-> 01:00:49 |him. It wouldn't be something he would be pushing and doing anything. So he
460 |459 |01:00:49 ~-~-> 01:00:52 |would turn his charts off and just go do whatever he's going to do, and then come
461 |460 |01:00:52 ~-~-> 01:00:58 |back in the evening and do his logging and back test to study to see what was
462 |461 |01:00:58 ~-~-> 01:01:06 |available in price action. I I'll stay with you for another three minutes, and
463 |462 |01:01:06 ~-~-> 01:01:13 |then we'll close this one when we get through August. This is pretty much what
464 |463 |01:01:13 ~-~-> 01:01:18 |the the timelines are going to be like, starting when the stream hopefully at
465 |464 |01:01:18 ~-~-> 01:01:25 |915 but 915 and then closing them by 11am so they'll be a little bit smaller
466 |465 |01:01:25 ~-~-> 01:01:30 |in duration and a whole lot less talking, because I want to be observing
467 |466 |01:01:30 ~-~-> 01:01:35 |and watching price and only speaking when There's something that's pertinent.
468 |467 |01:01:41 ~-~-> 01:01:48 |So I'd like to see as like a trap or a one more gun on it to set up a
469 |468 |01:01:48 ~-~-> 01:01:53 |retracement into the opening range. Gap high is not just go above this high by
470 |469 |01:01:53 ~-~-> 01:01:57 |like a tick or two. I want to see them throw it above. They're pretty good,
471 |470 |01:01:58 ~-~-> 01:02:03 |like 1015, handles, maybe 20 handles above it, and then peter out. And
472 |471 |01:02:03 ~-~-> 01:02:13 |especially if they do that with the s, p, not doing so hot in in comparison, it
473 |472 |01:02:13 ~-~-> 01:02:17 |should take that high up. So you're understanding, I believe that that high
474 |473 |01:02:17 ~-~-> 01:02:23 |could be taken out. But this afternoon, going into lunch, or post lunch, this
475 |474 |01:02:23 ~-~-> 01:02:28 |gap in this level right there, I believe we're gonna see that again today. That's
476 |475 |01:02:28 ~-~-> 01:02:31 |what I would go into the afternoon, without me knowing thing more than I
477 |476 |01:02:31 ~-~-> 01:02:35 |have in the chart right now. I would look for those levels to be treated to,
478 |477 |01:02:35 ~-~-> 01:02:39 |and if it doesn't do it prior to one o'clock, then I would expect that to be
479 |478 |01:02:40 ~-~-> 01:02:44 |what we would see in the afternoon. And if I can find the time and opportunity
480 |479 |01:02:45 ~-~-> 01:02:48 |to live stream it, and it hasn't done those things, I'll come out and I'll try
481 |480 |01:02:48 ~-~-> 01:02:59 |to walk you through as well. But the lion, this is a sick puppy like I would
482 |481 |01:02:59 ~-~-> 01:03:08 |not be interested in that at all. Now, one of the things that Dow tend to do is
483 |482 |01:03:08 ~-~-> 01:03:12 |it'll do all this lethargic, I'm not following along in PAL, and then all of
484 |483 |01:03:12 ~-~-> 01:03:16 |a sudden it comes to life. And real suddenly runs and gets to these levels.
485 |484 |01:03:16 ~-~-> 01:03:20 |So then that way you have any cancelation of an SMT divergence, where
486 |485 |01:03:21 ~-~-> 01:03:24 |one indicee makes a higher high, or two indices make a higher high and one
487 |486 |01:03:24 ~-~-> 01:03:30 |doesn't. Generally, it's usually going to be the Dow that doesn't want to
488 |487 |01:03:30 ~-~-> 01:03:34 |listen. It's a brat. It just does not want to listen. And that's the reason
489 |488 |01:03:34 ~-~-> 01:03:40 |why I don't trade it, because it's usually the first indication of things
490 |489 |01:03:40 ~-~-> 01:03:45 |starting to crack. Things are not they're not as strong or as weak as they
491 |490 |01:03:45 ~-~-> 01:03:54 |may seem. And I prefer to see a SMT divergence on either the ES or the
492 |491 |01:03:54 ~-~-> 01:03:58 |NASDAQ compared comparatively so. In other words, if a higher, high scene in
493 |492 |01:03:58 ~-~-> 01:04:06 |yes, if the market breath and strength is there, then the NASDAQ should do it
494 |493 |01:04:06 ~-~-> 01:04:11 |too. And if it's not, if it's not seen, then I'm not really willing to chase or
495 |494 |01:04:11 ~-~-> 01:04:17 |look for continuation, or look for a follow through for the session or for
496 |495 |01:04:17 ~-~-> 01:04:23 |the day. This should pop up area next the candle.
497 |496 |01:04:34 ~-~-> 01:04:43 |There it is. So anyone that's short here, they've been canceled out. So
498 |497 |01:04:43 ~-~-> 01:04:47 |then, now I can't stay with you, because I gotta escape now, but I would look for
499 |498 |01:04:47 ~-~-> 01:04:51 |a reason for it to roll over and then it starts to accelerate. Now, treat this
500 |499 |01:04:51 ~-~-> 01:04:56 |gap as an inversion pair ready gap, and because of the range and the size of it,
501 |500 |01:04:56 ~-~-> 01:05:00 |run the quadrants on it. So put your fiddle in that candle is low. That
502 |501 |01:05:00 ~-~-> 01:05:04 |candle is high, and have all those levels in here, and we would start to
503 |502 |01:05:04 ~-~-> 01:05:08 |see once it gets down below it. We want to see the upper half of it left pretty
504 |503 |01:05:08 ~-~-> 01:05:13 |much open, not try to trade to it too much, and all the work we've done at the
505 |504 |01:05:13 ~-~-> 01:05:17 |lower half or underneath it. And then send us below the consequent correction
506 |505 |01:05:17 ~-~-> 01:05:25 |of that wicks midpoint, and accelerate with large candles below here, trading
507 |506 |01:05:25 ~-~-> 01:05:30 |back down into opening range, gap high. And if it wants to accelerate through
508 |507 |01:05:30 ~-~-> 01:05:34 |that into the afternoon here and the liquidity there, and it can still go
509 |508 |01:05:34 ~-~-> 01:05:40 |higher after that, just know that that's what I would expect. And I think that's
510 |509 |01:05:40 ~-~-> 01:05:47 |going to be it not all that terribly sexy today, but that's how it's going to
511 |510 |01:05:47 ~-~-> 01:05:50 |be. Sometimes, when you're trading your own money, you're going to have to wait
512 |511 |01:05:50 ~-~-> 01:05:54 |and don't force it. It's going to be it for this one, I will touch base with you
513 |512 |01:05:54 ~-~-> 01:05:58 |this afternoon. If it's possible, I can work it out with my wife, and she's okay
514 |513 |01:05:58 ~-~-> 01:06:04 |with it, and if not, I will see you tomorrow before 930 opening bell. Let's
515 |514 |01:06:04 ~-~-> 01:06:09 |say that way. I'm going to aim for 915 but before the opening bell, at 930 New
516 |515 |01:06:09 ~-~-> 01:06:12 |York, Eastern Time, so I'll talk to you, then be safe. You.