ICT YT - 2020-12-30 - ICT On Bitcoin Over 29k - Lets Talk About It.srt
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ICT: Welcome back, folks, it's been a little bit of time since the last time we
spoke, I want to kind of close this year out with Bitcoin. As some of you know,
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I'm no longer on Twitter, you probably seen videos where I've shown invitations
to follow me on Twitter, I don't have a Twitter account anymore. I don't have
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Instagram anymore. The only thing I have is YouTube. But for those individuals
that were following me, and I had just about 39,000 or so followers on my
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Twitter account, and I was commenting various times throughout the year on
Bitcoin and crypto and such, and everyone knows what the entire world has been
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dealing with, since the beginning of the year, or there abouts in March
timeframe. The the idea of crypto or Bitcoin, specifically, I mentioned that
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everyone that was following me that if Bitcoin or crypto was going to be what
everyone had hoped it would be, now's the time for it to shine and show its
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colors. And that occurred right on schedule. So now there's been some commentary
on my part, that I have been very adversarial. and kept at a distance when it
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comes to crypto. The fact that it has traded, as it has here and offered levels
of price runs that I like to see. I mean, this is, in my opinion, this is
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phenomenal trading. This is a market that if it can maintain things like this is
very exciting for 2021. Now, it's important for some of you that are new that
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listen to me say what I'm about to say and say okay, well, there's no real way
of me backing up or verifying what Michael says here. And I'll just leave it up
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to you to decide whether or not it's something I really said or didn't say. But
it's important that you use the community tab on my YouTube channel because it
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has replaced my Twitter account. So I don't want to be on Twitter, Twitter
actually censored me a couple times and froze my account for talking about
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something that had nothing to do with anything that should have warranted that
type of response by them. So I saw move my entire show here to my YouTube
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channel. So if you go to YouTube channel, and you click on the community tab
here, it'll give you posts. Now, I don't allow comments because I don't have any
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interest in anyone else's opinions. And it may sound myopic to some. But I
already know I'm going to be polarizing. And I'm not offering a stage for people
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to advertise their self making the name for yourself, you know when you're in
steam, but I have throughout this fall in the month of December really outlined
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this run here on Bitcoin. Now, my group that was following me on Twitter, back
in July, knows that I was talking about it running from there. And then in my
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private group, mentorship, we talked a little bit about it periodically and
again, I do not talk about crypto in mentorship. Okay, so I like to bring that
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up multiple times because I don't want anybody thinking I'm dangling a carrot
here because I'm learning crypto. Okay, so it's important that you understand on
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transparency here. I don't have any immediate interest in trading it it just has
now moved To a degree of more interest by me, okay, whereas before I really
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wasn't interested in at all, I'm interested in it now. So some of you may be
laughing and saying, Oh, you missed the party, you missed the biggest bull
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market in the world, blah, blah, blah. Yeah, it's moved a lot of points. But in,
there's big moves or mega trades every single year. And what you do with it, is
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the most important thing. And
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while this may be a stunning price rally, I was pretty much involved in calling
most of it, okay, here. And there's a backdrop behind this that some of you are
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probably not up to speed with. And if you recall, back in 2018, I was really
calling Bitcoin lower. And then ultimately, I said that, I felt that would go to
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100. And at the time, I said it, I meant it. And I kind of went over this on my
community tab, but without rehashing that, just know that when I said that, I
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meant it. And there was other supported reasons why I wanted to say it and
publicly make it known. But I had no horse in the race. So it really is no skin
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off my back. And crypto has never really been my forte, I never claimed to know
how it works. And to be quite honest with you, I don't even know how to open up
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an account to trade this asset class. So that's how little I know about it, I
just look at the candles, and I share my opinion publicly, whenever I feel
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inspired to do so. And there's been a few times I've been wrong, but by far and
large, you know, with the exception of me obviously being facetious and meaning
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it's still at the same time calling Bitcoin at 100. It's been pretty, pretty
interesting to see my public calls have been good. But in full transparency, if
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I look at it, like I did, forex for over the number of years, I've been focusing
primarily on it since 2006. That I've been trading markets since 1992, but
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focused primarily on forex in 2006. But I have not really had a vested interest
in crypto, only because of my students, they have an interest of constantly
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pinging me for my opinion about what I think it's going to do. And as I
mentioned, on Twitter, at the time, when I had an account, I said, if it ever
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does stage or run to 20,000, I will let you know. And I made this public
knowledge. And I didn't hide it in some secret membership. I put I put it out
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there. And there it is. But I kind of want to talk a little bit about why I felt
it was going to go up and trade where it's at now and tell you where I think it
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might go to. And also talk about why I don't think anybody really knows what's
going to happen. So it's a little bit of a sobering message to this. But also
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just sharing what I think I see here in the chart, it's important to understand
before I go into it, that I do not have an account trading crypto, I do not have
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any interest in pumping it or inspiring it to go lower. Okay, so I have an
indifference here, it doesn't make a difference to me if it goes higher, or if
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it goes lower. I'm just commenting on his objectively as I possibly can. And
sharing that view or opinion with you here. It's not meant to be in in vestment
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advice. It's not meant to inspire you to buy it or go short. It's just that I've
been asked multiple times because we had this big price around here. And some of
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my students that are following me from afar
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have
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seen this move and have not been aware of the community tab on my YouTube
channel. So everything's there, it's dated, you can see the comments I've had
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about it. So let's talk a little bit about what I saw this year. And what led to
this price run. I said back in the beginning here we had this I'm not going to
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say the word because it's gonna like my video and I don't want to have any
issues with that. But you all know what this is referring to. And the market
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tanked like everything else here. But at the time. This is when if crypto was
going to be the the great alternative to Fiat, then this should be a time at
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which it will really start to show its true colors. If that's in fact what it
is. Now, do I believe that Bitcoin will be the benchmark forever In crypto, if
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we're to assume that it eventually does replace Fiat, I'm not here to say it
will. I'm just making the argument here that if Fiat is completely done away
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with and everything goes to a digital currency, I do not believe that Bitcoin
will be the standard. Okay, I think it will be replaced by something else. And
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I'm not a student enough to know what that is. Okay, so I'm kind of like, being
as honest as I possibly can. I just believe in my heart that this is just the
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beginning of something. Okay. And they may adopt something else entirely, but
still be crypto. And there it is. But whatever that thing is, that replaces
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Bitcoin will do what you see here in Bitcoin faster than what we saw here. So I
think it was in 2012. If I'm not mistaken, I think it's about when I was being
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asked, I had a interview with a group of traders that were really, really
interested in Bitcoin back then. And it was trading under 1000 is like a couple
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$100 for a Bitcoin. And I didn't have any interest back then either. And I said,
you know, I'm not interested in I'll have to see what it does. And the idea of
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this asset class, replacing Fiat has been argued for law since the inception of,
you know, the crypto markets, I think that there will be a another coin or
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something to that effect, that will become more favored than this one. Will it
mean that this goes away entirely? I don't know. Does it mean that there won't
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be other currencies? Like we have different countries, then they have their own
individual currency? Will they have their own individual cryptocurrency? I kind
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of think that's what's happening initially. Before all Fiat goes away, I think
every country is eventually going to want to do that. There's been obviously
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talks about the digital dollar. I'm not afraid of that. I don't think there's
any real concern. And ultimately, if I'm wrong and say, Fiat just completely
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disappears overnight. Because 2020 has been relentless with doing plot twists
throughout the year. The the idea of Fiat gone away immediately, and maybe that
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impacts forex. The big question is, you know, is it over for forex? No, I don't
believe that's the case. I think if Fiats done away with, then we'll still apply
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the same things, which we do with forex, and comparing the contrast and looking
for leaders and laggards in terms of relative strength and which currency has
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the most interest. And I think this the effects of interest rates, and
differentials will still have an impact there, it just won't be done in the
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capacity of a fiat currency, it will be done in crypto. Now, that's my
assumptions. And I may absolutely be incorrect. And maybe there's a lot of you
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out there that know more about this than I do. And you're shaking your head
saying this guy's a noob. He has no idea. I've already admitted. Every time I
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talk about this, this asset class, I preface it by saying that, because I don't
want to sound like and I hope you can see the difference here. Okay. I am
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admittedly uncomfortable talking about this crypto space, okay.
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That's why it sounds like arrogance, when I'm talking about forex or futures.
Because I'm comfortable there. And I know what I'm talking about. Here, I'm just
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sharing my feelings, my opinions, my thoughts, my concerns about it, and
admitting that there's absolutely no harm to me if I'm wrong or right, because
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I'm not invested in it at all. But I'm fascinated to see the things I'm going to
cover here still showing its hand in the delivery of price here. But I want you
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to also remember that there's absolutely no one out there, no one out there
knows where bitcoins ultimately going to go. We are clearly in all time highs in
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any market that trades at an all time high. There's absolutely no way to
determine with any great accuracy, or a surety that you know where it's going to
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go to. So what I'm going to show you what I believe led to me calling the levels
that I called shared with my students and also I shared some levels with the
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YouTube community tab. I'm going to go over some of that tell you why I believed
it was going to happen. And then you can see whether there was any validity to
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it. I promise you, there is no secret sauce stuff that I'm not sharing here.
Because I don't have anything that I want to plug in to crypto at this moment.
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And I don't have any confidence in it. So I just look at pure price delivery,
and order block theory. And it's all I'm looking at here. So with that, just
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know that this was the precursor to seeing all this price run up, it was maximum
pessimism, and fear, which is where something that is underlying Lee strong. And
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this is something if you're taking notes you should be be the idea of a market
that is predisposed to go up. Okay, a market is primarily bullish, if there's
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ever a sharp decline, okay, or a rapid run to lower prices. Many times if you're
zoomed in really tight, and you're only looking at about two weeks worth of
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data, this is going to look horrific. But when you zoom out a little bit, it
gives you a better, I guess, perspective on how much of an impact that really
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had. But at the time watching it and all the uncertainty that was coming out
around March of the year, everybody was taking guesses about what was going on.
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And nobody really wanted to be a participant of any any market. That maximum
fear in a market that is predisposed to go up. Its underlying Lee bullish if
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it's really just primed to go higher. Any market like that, in those instances,
offer these types of climax reversals, okay, where it just looks like it's going
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down forever go down. But it turns on a dime and starts to go the other way. In
July, I felt that we had that effect here, we had a reversal of sorts. And if it
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was going to go higher if crypto was going to be the, the answer to Fiat, the
market should start pricing higher. And it was consolidate for a little bit, we
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had this little bit of a run here. We came back down rebalanced, and ran out
some relative equal lows in here, you can look at this on your own charts, I
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just want to get through this because already kind of too long, but an optimal
trade entry here and running on the sell side liquidity there. And you can see
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some old support resistance ideas if you'd like that kind of thing, but I don't.
But we had a run here. And then we had price drop back down into another optimal
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trade entry there. And I want to kind of zoom in on that. Alright, so we have
this run and decline these two down close candles as your order block.
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case, you can see how market ran up and broke down. The 20,000 is where
everybody was looking forward to go to and 2017. I said that we were going to go
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from 6500 to 10. And then from 10 to 20. This is all during my time on Twitter.
There's a lot of people that screen capture all this stuff. Do I have access to
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it now? No, I don't care. Okay, but there was many of you out there that No, I
said this. And then I also said, this is a story guy real briefly. My wife asked
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me the day before Bitcoin made a tie. She asked me, have you bought any Bitcoin?
And I said, What did you just say to me? And my wife was sitting next to me on
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the couch and she says, Did you buy bitcoin? It's going up. And I said, Hold
that thought right there. And I really went to Twitter and said, Okay, my, my
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original idea was, Bitcoin was going to go to 20,000. But I'm telling you right
now, it's not going to go to 20,000. And here's the reasons why my wife said I
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should be buying Bitcoin. Now, this is not ladies, please don't be mad. And I'm
not making fun of my wife, I love my wife.
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But
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if my wife is telling me to be buying Bitcoin, she's the last person that would
know, to be buying Bitcoin. So if she's telling me it's a good buy, that means
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everybody thinks the same thing. So therefore it's not going to 20,000 so that's
the reason why I went on the Twitter immediately and said, okay, it's not going
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to 20,000 and I looked at the chart, and I said it's going to go basically just
6000 and everybody laughed me off the internet. It is what it is. It went down
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to 6000 that I called 3000 and went down to like 34 something ish. Yeah, I don't
know exactly what it was, but then go to 3000 I was wrong. There. And at that
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point, I really didn't know what it was going to do. And everybody was hammering
me because I called the top in Bitcoin and I called the slide to 6000. I called
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the slide almost to 3000. And everybody was waiting for that 3000 still, and I
said, You know what, I don't know what's going to happen. But I can't handle
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everybody coming at me with crypto because I'm a forex guy, okay? I'm a futures
guy. I'm a limited market type person, I have obsessive compulsive disorder. And
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it's very easy for me to be distracted. So I did what I did, I said, Here's is,
I think, ultimately bitcoins gonna crash and go to 100. And I put it out there.
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And it obviously turned a lot of people off made enemies. Have some of my
followers with me, oh, you're, you're, you're a Fudd, or whatever that is, you
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guys talk about it. Now, what's the negative side of it. So it worked, though,
hey, got everybody off my back about crypto. And it allowed me to focus on the
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markets that I focus on. So that's why this is labeled as the milestone because
it never really got to 20,000. So 20,000 was that benchmark it needed to reach
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to and through. And we just got to very close on the first of December off of
this optimal trade entry here, and then it consolidated and drop down. This in
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itself is an optimal trade entry. But before I go into this one, I'm going to
show you the structure on this, that leads to some of the targets. So the low
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here to this high. Okay, now I'm using the wicks in the tails. Now, most of the
time, you see me doing exercises, where I'll draw the fib and the bodies of the
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candles, because it's the bulk of the volume. If I'm looking for targets, and I
really want to consider the entire range that could be available. I'm going to
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use this the lowest tail and the highest wick. Why am I doing it here and not
using the bodies, because we're trading or expected to trade to all time highs.
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So I want to incorporate the maximum amount of range that could be available to
me, if I'm going to be utilizing the fib for target selection. Now, by itself.
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The fib at this point, is the only thing I can lean on for targeting. And this
is the reason why I said in the beginning video, nobody has any idea where
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Bitcoin is going to go. Okay, I like to think that it's going to go to 30,000.
Because it just, it's a nice round number. It's a reward for everybody that's
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held on this long, it'll really get everybody interested in it. Everybody wanted
to see it get to 20. But how does it trade above 20. And I said, if it does go
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above 20, he needs to do what we see here. Just run, run, run, go go go. Okay.
My concern is, this is one of the things I'm wondering if it's gonna happen or
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not. If I was trading it, if I was in this, if I had money in this market, which
I do not trade crypto, I don't have live money in this asset class, I would want
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to see it trade to 30. If it got the 30, I would probably download about 85% of
whatever I held. And then wait and see what happens with a stop below here.
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On the community tab, I gave you some levels. And I said, You know, I don't know
what it's going to do. But I feel that as long as we stayed above 17 eight,
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which would be essentially, here's the low here at 117 569. I don't think that
needed to go back up below rather 17 eight, which would be potentially running
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below this low. If it did that, then that's for me problematic that would be
breaking down in market structure, whereas everything here has been bullish. So
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some of the targets I was looking at was from this low to this high. And it
trades back down into optimal trade entry, which is what I teach on this
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channel. It's kind of like the flagship pattern. And then we have multiple
levels that are hit here. 28 927 level 27 and 3925 was no problem whatsoever.
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But I like these up here and targeting the 30,000 that to my concerns, will
30,000 act like 20 did in 2017 and just fall short of it and create a issue
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where we have to come back down below 20,000. I think ultimately if it were to
do that, that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's not What you probably want to
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hear, especially if you're long, or if you've been buying in here or up here, if
you're buying up there, I would be nervous, I wouldn't chase it like that. Just,
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that's just me, I wouldn't do it. But if it were to fail to get to 30, and trade
back down below 20, I would like to see it, pick up some buying it this area
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right in here. Okay, so it can go back below 20 a little bit, but I don't think
it needs to come back down below here. I think everybody stop is here. So if it
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did come back down, it could retest this old high, but I would like to see it go
through it a little bit. And focus on this candle right there. Now, again,
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that's just an expectation, if it were to fail to get the 30. I personally think
they're going to push it to 30 before we turn to 2021. And I wouldn't be
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surprised if they really ram it up there through 30, you buy five or 6000 more
points beyond that. So like 35 36,000, I think 38. And let's see if we have a
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level here. Now we don't have it on this one. But you'll see it most likely on
here. The next optimal trade entry is this. And whenever you're trading at all
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time highs, this is kind of like the the process, it just keeps becoming a
guessing game. Because you don't know nobody knows what this markets going to
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do. They don't know where it's going to go. Obviously, some of you're shaking
your head saying it's going 100,000 ICT, it's going to a million ICT, it's going
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to 50,000 ICT, everybody has their target, you know, and well, I could just call
out levels and say, you know, this is what I think this is what I believe
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there's really nothing that I can say this is the reason why except for a fit
here. And I don't trade with just a fit. It may look like that some when they
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watch me do things in my videos. But I promise you that fib is only giving me
one small little piece. And that's where we're at with this. And regardless if
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you want to agree with my analysis here, or if my opinion, or my thoughts about
it, you have nothing, zero, nothing except for hope, hope and expectation that
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it's going to go to your specific target. Just like I had hope and expectation,
just to see if I was at a morbid curiosity, if I was going to be correct. If it
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ran up of 20,000. Before Christmas, it did. Did it trade to the levels I put on
my community tab? Yes, it did. Is it skill? No, there wasn't no skill there, it
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was just me looking at how it could potentially expand up into those levels, and
maybe even go way beyond that. But no one can really say with any absolute
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evidence to support their idea where it's going to go on evaluation, like you
can't look over here on this axis of the chart and say, this is where bitcoins
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gonna go because of this, this, this and this. Whereas if we have traded to an
old level before, it's easy to look at things and rationalize it with technicals
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to justify and present that argument. Whereas right now, everybody has their own
opinion about this market and where they think it's going to go. And no one has
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any way to quantify that. You just can't do it. So let's take a look at the
weekly chart and close this video because it's too long as it is.
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Alright, so let's go back out to a higher timeframe chart and we'll look at this
leg here. So if we use the lowest low here, up to this right there. All right,
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I'm going to crunch this up a little bit. So from this low to this high retrace
back down, yes, we overshot a little bit. But again, I already stated multiple
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times. I'm not just a fib guy, fibs are just a tool I like to use to provide
more Confluence around the level that I would already be looking for anyway. And
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if a fib overlaps with it, then great if it doesn't, whatever. But I've looked
at some of these levels here. And let's just say we get some crazy blow off move
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that goes above 30. There you go. That's the level I would look for if we get 30
and run through. And then after there, I don't know. I don't know. could you do
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this? Could you go back to something like this low here, and why am I picking
this low? Because this is the most dynamic one out of all this price action. Now
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that I think about it, as I'm looking at this chart, I think it was one was it.
I think it was 2014. Yeah, I mentioned early 2012 it was 2014. I think this
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fellows they were initially interviewing me asking me what my opinion was about
Bitcoin. I may have that date wrong still, but I just for sake of discussion, I
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wish I could remember who it was. But anyway, I held the main I maintain the the
opinion about crypto and Bitcoin, the same up until right now this at this
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moment here. So, am I saying I'm going to start trading Bitcoin? No, I'm saying
I'm interested in I'm gonna start following it. And if it can continuously Give
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me what I'm looking for, and the things I see in forex, then I'll probably start
trading. But right now, I have an official interest in it. But you can see here
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using this optimal trade entry here. These are some levels also that could lend
well to upside, should we get some kind of crazy, explosive, wild run, like in
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the 1970s commodity markets. So I don't know. Okay, I want to kind of like end
it with that I don't know where it's going to go. I personally just want to see
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it, trade 230. Okay, if it goes to 30,000, I'm content. And in my mind, the
paper trade that I would have assumed in here, you would have gained to the
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degree that I would have liked to participate in. And then I would move myself
to the sidelines, and then leave a small portion on the see if it can run into
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something like this, or kind of like do like, I think it's hodler rice is like
hold on for dear life. Again, I'm showing my you know, neophyte stance and all
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this, but I'm being as honest as I possibly can, because there are very sincere
people that have been with me for a number of years, they already understand I
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don't trade it, they already understand that I have a, a willingness to try to
distance myself from it. But they have sincerely asked if I would make my views
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on it public. And this is what I got for right now. It may be nonsense that some
of you may be absolutely a waste of your time. And for that, I apologize. But
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I'm making the video for those individuals that are interested in this, from my
perspective. And I just hope it doesn't entice anyone to do something that would
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either remove potential profitability, or put them in a losing trade, I try to
carry myself with that every time I talk about the markets as a whole. But I
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know everybody's excited about this one right now, because this is where all the
money's pouring, like this is, that's why I talked about it publicly. Every time
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I do a public call, like that's kind of like, where it's at, like, I don't have
a secret society, we're often doing calls or signals. If I put it out there,
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that's where I'm going to be weighed in the balance. And I leave it there. Any
trade examples I share has always been a public display. So that way, you can
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see it, and either I sink or swim. This particular move in Bitcoin, I believe,
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is inspiring for me as a dinosaur. Like I said, I started trading 1982. So I'm
not familiar with these specific markets, but I'm familiar with how price
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delivers. And most of the things that I have been anticipating have happened
since basically, July, August of this year. So I'm seeing things that I like
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I've been telling everybody, if I start seeing it, then I'll have a better read
on it. And then I'm feel more comfortable telling you what I think is going to
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happen. But prior to that, I wasn't seeing it. Now what do I mean by that? I
think there's a lot more institutional involvement now than there ever has been
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ever. And PayPal, which I have a partnership with, because they do on my payment
processing for my mentorship. They came out and said that they're going to now
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start taking Bitcoin. That's a huge, you know, milestone for crypto. So at some
point, and this was one of the arguments I had when I was first introduced to
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the idea of my opinion being shared about the asset class. I couldn't go to and
I still can't really I couldn't go to a gas station and buy gas with my Bitcoin.
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You know, that's starting to change now. I mean, there's places that are taking
and there's apps that you can use it and obviously like PayPal is now but it
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seems like it's speeding up. So that transition, you know or movement to A more
open access to it is obviously making itself known. But it admittedly, it wasn't
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like that prior to 2020, okay, and we'll just say, post pandemic, okay, I'm
saying that with my fingers quotations post pandemic, it was not as obvious
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anytime prior to it is right now. And you can see, I can see things in price
that I was not able to see prior to mid part of this year. And I believe it's
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because there's a lot of institutional sponsorship that are taking action. And
clearly you can see it, there's a lot of movement in this market. So all this
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has done is drawn more interest in it. And obviously, now my interest is piqued
on it. It doesn't mean I'm going out in 2021, and opened up an account as of yet
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I don't have that in my mind yet. But I will be looking at this market on a day
by day basis going forward. I'm treating it like a market that I watch with
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forex. Okay, so I've watched the E mini s&p watch gold, watch crude oil. And I
watch forex. Okay, and that's about one. And now watch some commodity markets
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like soybeans, I've been mentioning that. But I focus on markets that have big
moves. Okay. And if you've been following me at any length of time, one of the
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things that I like to illustrate and show is my ability to use the tools that I
teach not only in this YouTube channel, but in my private group, where it
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ferrets out these big moves. Now, there's a lot of people out there that have
signal services, and you're trying to get people to subscribe to them and all
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that. And they say, you know, I'm bringing you the proof, I'm showing you the
proof. I'm not showing you a fuzzy little screen, you can't see anything about
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it and claiming 95% I live 95%. Okay, I put my name out there all the time, this
is what it is, this is what I think's going to happen. And if I fail, I fail
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miserably. Or if I'm consistent, then I'm consistent. So I want big moves. I'm
not looking at for instance, like a move that may be found in a market like
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this. This used to be one of my favorite markets, the bond market. And, you
know, this markets dead. This is Mario is dead. Now you contrast that with a
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market move that I made public here. And it's 10s of 1000s of points of
movement. You can't compare that there's there's no there's no comparison. Also,
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the other market that I felt was a big move rate for this year. And I'm on
record with it as well, is soybeans. And that kind of looks a little bit like
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Bitcoin doesn't it? Big run up.
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This market is basically what I like to talk about as a mega trade. mega trade
is like an idea I picked up from Larry Williams Now, the way he finds his mega
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trades is not entirely how I do it. There's a lot of things that I do right from
his how I made a million dollars trading commodities last year book, which is
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absolutely essential reading for everybody that's a trader, because that part of
the book is still applicable today. Those elements to how the soybean market
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traded here. If you read Larry Williams book, how made a million dollar shrink
money last year, that 1970s book would have put you right in this market here.
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And you wouldn't have had to watch any ICT videos. You wouldn't have to watch
anybody else jawboning about the markets, you went there, subscribe to any
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services, his book would have put you in that trade. Okay. What is this trade
look like? Well, from $8.40 to $9.40, that's $5,000 in price movement for one
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contract to 1040, it's 10,000 to 1140, it's 15,000 to 1240, it's 20,000. And
we're probably gonna go to 1340. So that'll be 25,000. If we're comparing apples
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to oranges here, you know, Bitcoin versus soybeans. There's not a big move
happening. And you can clearly admit this. There hasn't been these big moves
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every year in Bitcoin. But there's always a big move in the commodity market.
Every year. There's one every single year. So this is a megatrade. Okay, that I
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like to find these types of moves. Most of my cynics like to think that I'm just
a 20 PIP trader here, and I'm only interested This, that's where I Excel because
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I'm a very short term thinker. And I can change my opinion very quickly. So it
fits my personality Plus, it provides a way of teaching. And it gives my
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students a plethora of examples to work with. Whereas if you look at something
like this, where it takes a half a year to unfold, yes, I outline all this
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stuff. But it takes a long time. And it's very boring to watch this, if you're
if you're not familiar with what you're looking for, or watching, you're going
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to lose interest in this whole thing. But it's the same element of knowing what
price is likely to do, but not absolutely going to do. Okay, and having these
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big moves each year. That's my primary focus. And I go through all the markets
and I try to find where these big moves potentially will occur in Bitcoin,
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because of everything that happened this year with the quote unquote, illness.
That was one of the primary reasons why I said, Okay, if I take a step back and
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look at how everything around the world is kind of coming to a halt, the
economies are basically being attacked. And if that's the case, then this market
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should start seeing a rapid increase. And it creates the well. It was quietly
staying in consolidation, another area here where it's consolidated. And finally
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it was just like, they got to keep it going, and then rallied on higher. So in
short, in in closing, I would like to see a trade to 30,000. Will it? I don't
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know. But I would not be surprised if it does not correct. And trade back down
below 20 to make everybody feel uneasy about holding on to it. Like this was the
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blow off move. While this is exceptional price action, I don't think this is it.
Like if Bitcoin was going to climax reverse on a run higher. I don't see this as
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capitulation yet. If that makes any sense to you, like I feel like this is just
part of it. And then we'll see like this big huge, maybe one or two big long
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candles, maybe we'll have, you know, 5000 or 6000 point candle, then, you know,
I would feel like okay, we're getting nuts. Now everybody's dogpiling in on
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this. If we see a day like that, or daily range, it does something like that, it
doesn't necessarily have to be five or 6000 points, but something that's so
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grandiose compared to everything else in the past. It basically you'll know it
when you see it, I think that's the day that you should be rapidly trailing your
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stop loss up using an hourly chart intraday, and kind of like locking in any
realized unrealized, rather profits that had been accumulated at that point. But
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right now, it's kind of like
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Larry Williams said this beautifully in his four VHS tape. Of course, the
futures manners confidential trading course, it's for cassette tapes, or VHS
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tapes, rather. And it was produced in 1995. And mine were watched so many times,
they no longer worked, so I don't have access to them anymore. But nonetheless,
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he made a comment in there. And it's still I still think about all the time when
I think about like mega moves, like these big mega trade type, big blow off
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moves. He mentioned it about commercial markets. And I'll leave that for your
study. If you buy the book. How many million dollar trading commodities last
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year. It's just a wonderful book. It's a simple book. It's not highly technical.
I don't subscribe to everything in there. But the things that he talks about
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having million dollar setups, they work folks. Okay, so if you're looking for a
book to buy, okay, maybe you have you some money that you got your stocking from
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Santa, you spend a little bit of money support that guy, okay, because he's put
out a lot of good stuff. I don't subscribe to everything. Okay, but that book is
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absolutely gold. And it was written in 1970s. And it's still true today. But he
made a comment about these big commercial bull markets that take off and really
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run up crazy. Nobody knows where they're gonna go. Okay. And as I was talking to
you in this video, I'm speaking and thinking about his voice in my head back in
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1995. When I heard him in his course, say those very words. Nobody knows where
it's going to go when you have these big mega moves. And I have racked my brains
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from which 30 years Here's trying to solve that puzzle. And I'm here to tell
you, I gave up on it because there really is no way, but you want to do this.
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And this is his words, you want to wrap your arms around it, close your eyes,
and just hold on for dear life, day come hell or high water, and see where you
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end up six months later, because they can go so much farther than you want, or
expect them to go. And I'm kinda like paraphrasing, but when I watched him say
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that the first time, I was grinning, because I'm thinking myself, man, that's
amazing. Like, I want to be in moves like that. Well, I think Bitcoin has some
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of that still in it. So while this is great, I don't think this is the end of
it. Okay, do we need to correct maybe, I would personally like to see it not do
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it, I would like to see it say, you know, we spent too much time below 20,000,
we don't need to be down anymore. That's kind of like my view on it. If Bitcoin
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or crypto is exactly what everybody believes it is, it's going to be this
juggernaut that no one's going to be able to stop. And I'm not trying to be
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facetious, I'm not trying to make fun. I'm not trying to be sarcastic here. I'm
saying, if that's really what this is, then this market should say, I don't need
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to go back down the 20, I'm gonna flex and push myself to 50. That's the way I
interpret it, does it need to go back down to 20? It could, but if it does, I
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don't think it breaks it, you know what I mean? Like, I think it needs to go
back down here. And that would serve two purposes. Number one, it would upset
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anyone that has a child stoploss below this swing low. And if it goes below
20,000, it would upset those individuals that just want to see this old
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resistance, quote, unquote, be acting as support, I think it can come back down
with a deeper and scare everybody out of the idea of Okay, maybe it's gonna
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crash, and then tear off higher again, and do what we saw here. Faster. Okay,
that's what I would expect from this market. If it were to read, you know,
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retrace and come back down. If we lose this low here, then we're probably gonna
keep whatever high forms between that high, you know, being there and retracing
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lower to this low here, then we'll have to work out some price action, speed
bumps at that time, meaning that it consolidate, maybe trade a little bit lower,
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or, basically, hands off, don't touch it for a little while. And that is
honestly, the only thing that I see in price. And it probably did not help any
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of you and probably confused some of you, or probably made you doubt some of the
things you've already subscribed to. which is the reason why I hate doing these
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kind of videos. It's not because I'm afraid to be right or wrong, because I
already give you what I think is gonna happen like in my community tab. But I
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like to think that if I can just inspire everyone in here to just remember, no
one knows how far this thing can go up.
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I don't think there's a limit on where it could go. That could be justified in
anyone's eyes, like you can't, so nobody can come on YouTube, or go on the TV
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and say, this is where bitcoins gonna go because of this, this this, it's
impossible, that part is impossible, which is exciting thing for people that are
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trading this market because that means you have tremendous opportunity. Now
obviously, there's always risk. And I'm trying to sweet talk you into thinking,
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this is the this is the be all end all everybody should be doing this. But it's
exciting for me now, because like I've said, I've not been interested in this.
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But around the summertime, it started giving me clues that hey, look, you know,
you need to be paying attention to what what this is doing. And I was kind of
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like talking to my my students. I said, Look, you know, it's, it's going to have
to show its colors right now. If it's going to do it, it's going to do it. Now.
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If it doesn't, here's the big here's the big thing. And I'm closing. If Bitcoin
didn't do this, this year, I would have been on YouTube trashing it. literally
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saying it's not going to do what you want it to do. Pretty much what I said
about XRP. Okay. And then this is a Bitcoin video, but I just want to put this
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up here. I called the high in this market to on Twitter. I said, here's the XRP
market. So the weekly chart this, I called this up in here as well called some
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run up into it. And then I said, it's done. It's dead money. And it's been dead
money since then. And there's a lot of people out there that send me emails all
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the time. And please don't send me emails, folks. If I see anything about XRP or
ripple, I don't even read it. Okay, and I don't mean to be ignorant. I just have
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very little time and when I get to the emails in order I received them It has
anything to do with this market here. I literally just just completely send it
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to the dubbin. I don't look at it. I don't read it. Yes, we had a little bit of
a run up in here. But there's nothing in this. This is literally penny stocks.
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Okay, it's performing like penny stocks, it would need to do something at a
later time because as of right now, it's dead money. Now, if you remember and
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look at how Bitcoin started, it did a lot of this kind of stuff. I mean, I don't
think it was this cheap. But it did some squirrely looking things in the
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beginning. Okay, and maybe down the road 510 years from now, maybe it will be
less time if it's going to do I don't know, folks. Okay, but I'm just giving you
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my opinion. And it means absolutely nothing. Okay, I don't have any vested
interest in this. I'm this saying, every time I've talked about this one here,
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and then some of you're saying shut up ICT, you're killing it. If you think I'm
I'm talking this market down, making it go down, you don't believe what you
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believe about it. Because it doesn't make a difference. When I say about it. I'm
not even trading it. So it's, it's just me sharing what I see in the price
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action. This is all classic penny stock activity. It's a pump and dump. Okay.
You're not seeing that with Bitcoin. And that was what I meant when I said XRP
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is dead money. So if you're going to be doing anything crypto, you know, at
least be in Bitcoin, if you're going to do it at all, because that's where
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everything's being poured into, it's going there. Now, there may be other coins
and other things that they're, you know, starting to work in maybe some of you
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are more savvy in regards to noticing what they are, you know, God bless you.
But I'm only sticking to the things that I know very little about because
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everything else is next to nothing. But bitcoins price action has this year
showed me things that I have not been able to see consistently until 2020. And
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it wasn't until again, post pandemic. So I hope you have at least considered the
likelihood of this may be gone a little bit higher than what we're showing here.
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I don't want to talk anybody out of a position because it would just be terrible
for you to send me an email, say I see, You scared the living daylights out of
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me. And I took everything off at this price level. And it goes to 100,000. You
know, I would be terribly upset about that. So don't take anything I'm saying
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here as investment advice. If you have a trade idea, and you think it's going to
go to whatever level it is, you know what? Follow it stick to it, because I'm
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probably wrong. If you looked at every time that I was trading on paper, not
with my funds, these crypto markets, when I was trying to do it on a day by day
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basis, like it was horrendous. It was so bad. Like, it was shameful, like, and
that's why I said like I don't have any Mojo with this. Like I don't, when I
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feel like I haven't I make it public knowledge. But that's it, it's not a lot,
but they tend to be the bigger price swings.
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This year, I've seen more using a four hour on a daily chart setups that I have
not been able to see prior to midpoint of this year. So for everyone that has
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followed me for a length of time, and you know, I've always said this, I don't
see the same signatures in price that I see in forex, I'm starting to see them.
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Now when I say that it doesn't mean I see everything that I see. In forex, that
makes it so precise. I'm seeing a lot more of it now. And that means that the
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boys, they're in this now they're really starting to pour into it. So if they're
going to be involved in this, and if I'm accurate in my observations, then this
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asset class is going to get really, really exciting. which kind of makes sense
because if you look at forex, forex, it's kind of quiet right now, even though
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it's going where we want it to go. It's slow and lethargic. And you can't
compare, you know, with 20,000 points, you know, 20,000 points, versus, you
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know, I'm looking at like 50 to 75 pips a week if I'm trading forex, not because
that's all I can make. But that's kind of like, it's easy for me to do. It's
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easy for me to find, and it gives me a lot of free time. I've never seen a
market that can offer swings like that, like 20 points now 20,000 points, and
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calling it and seeing, you know, this is where it's going to go. Like this could
be a really amazing turn of events for traders. And some of you, Brian, we've
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been doing this for all this time, Michael, where you've been? We've been trying
to tell you Yeah, I get it, but there's the things that I'm looking for that
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I've been very apprehensive about participating in because they're not there
until now. And I'm hoping to see more of the things I look for in forex happen
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in this asset class. Because if it does, I'm coming to dominate this one just
like I did forex, and talk to you next time. Happy New Year, be safe, and I'll
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talk to you again in 2021