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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-12-09 06:15
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Drunk Monkey 1.1 1 1
2 00:00:11,670 ~-~-> 00:00:26,040
3 ICT: Good morning, folks, it is January 8 2018, is about 10 minutes before 11am
4 Eastern Time, or ICT time as we would otherwise refer to it. whatever time it is
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8 in New York, and the states, that's what time it is here locally with ICT. So I
9 sent out a couple tweets this morning, kind of get your gears turning a little
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13 bit and relates to Bitcoin. And I want you to recall that I gave a video on my
14 YouTube channel. It's in fact, this video here, you can go to my YouTube
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18 channel, inner circle trader and the episode on January 4 2018. I go into the
19 reasons why I felt that while everyone else was cheerleading in China pump up,
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23 ripple and such, that was not likely to happen. And I go through all the reasons
24 why in this video, so I'm not going to bore you with all that. But it's not
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28 about retweeting things to have the same hope and prayer mentality. It's not
29 about retweeting or pumping, the, the storyline that you hope is going to unfold
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33 because you want to look smart online, you have to know what you're doing
34 technically. And you have to also know what the drivers are going to be to shift
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38 sentiment. And I go over what that is in here. And I gave it to you the day that
39 it occurred, and go back and look at it. Okay? Don't take other people's
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43 opinions about me or my content, and then assume that's what it is. investigate
44 what I do, what I teach what I say, and you'll see what I'm talking about is 90%
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48 club here. Okay, we don't goof around. We don't pump. We don't cheerlead things
49 up. We stick to the technicals. And with the tools in my repertoire, have really
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53 served me well for 25 years plus, so I'm not a new kid on the block with this
54 stuff. Okay, I didn't just recently find something I can see in the charts. I've
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58 been doing this for a long, long time. So let's go back over, take a look at the
59 kryptos. Right, so we're looking at Bitcoin and posed the question this morning
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63 on Twitter. Why was I mentioning 17,500 as a catalyst for anything bullish above
64 that, okay, is positive for me, it needs to get above 75. Why 17 five? Well, I
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68 want to go over a couple things before we get to that point. But these zoom in
69 and put some lipstick on this pig here. So we have and I'm admittedly very
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73 clumsy with this. So it is what it is. Alright, so we have this. And then we
74 have this. Okay, and I'll talk about that. So we have the stops, branch above,
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78 previous high here. And we also have it over here as well. The stops are seen
79 here. x here is a word. So we'll put that here. And let's make a little copy of
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83 it, and post it right over there. Now, if you go back and watch what I said on
84 Twitter, and I gave reasons why I felt that we would not see 20,000 in 2017 on
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88 this particular day right here, okay, and go back and look at it on Twitter
89 can't manipulate all that stuff. And I told you the reasons why. Okay, and it
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91 19
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93 was all of this cheerleading, pump it up, pump it up, everybody's all excited
94 about Bitcoin. And I said,
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98 if it's going to go higher, it's going to have to go down first, kill all the
99 long holders because you know what the mantra is in crypto, it's especially with
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103 Bitcoin is hold on for dear life. And I think that's a little too myopic because
104 that's the same thing everyone had in their minds when the.com bubble was
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108 occurring. Okay, and I was screaming from the rooftops then dump it, get rid of
109 it, sell it, sell it, sell it. Well, just like anything else. If someone's doing
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113 well in something, and someone's telling you to do the opposite of what they're
114 doing in it. Seeing profitability is He's going to win an argument. Obviously,
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118 not the person that's speaking from a stance of objectivity on I don't have any
119 skin in the race in this. So I can be on the sidelines and be very objective
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123 about it. And I don't have the emotions wrapped up in whether or not my money is
124 going up and down in the fluctuations that occur. So, again, I don't cheerlead
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128 anything. I don't cheerlead anything in the markets that I'm actually trading
129 either. So to do those types of things, it's just, it's a hallmark of someone
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133 that's a novice. And you don't want to be doing anything like that in your own
134 personal trading. If you find yourself gravitating to these types of
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138 personalities, all you're really doing is looking for something to agree with
139 what your hopes and prayers are linked to. And if you're buying these types of
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143 things, and you're holding on to them for dear life, hoping that they go up, and
144 then you don't have any kind of meaningful retracements or potential reversals,
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148 you're just basically trading with blinders on. And just to say, well, it's
149 worth the risk of You see, climb exponentially in order to lose everything.
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153 Again, that's a hallmark of a novice, okay? a neophyte, it's not what someone
154 with a great deal of understanding would allow themselves to be subjected to. So
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158 looking at Bitcoin, okay, again, go back on Twitter, you'll see these are the
159 days that we saw the actual thing I outlined, come to fruition. And actually
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163 keep storyline about on this day here, that I was actually in a grocery store,
164 and a gentleman, a couple of carts behind me said that he was wanting to put his
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168 junk food back. He wanted to buy more Bitcoin, he want to say some money. So I'm
169 thinking myself, This is bad. And the morning, oh, my wife actually sat down
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173 with me and said, hey, look, you know, do you trade Bitcoin. I said, That's it,
174 the markets going to talk right now. And I even made a joke about it on Twitter.
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178 But I meant it absolutely meant it. Because if everyone is actively talking
179 about something being a good thing, or shows an interest in it, like my wife,
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183 you know, she's been with her a long time, she has no idea what the charts
184 telling me or it should be implied by looking at it. But she's telling me about
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188 Bitcoin, and maybe I should look to buy it. Well, that's the top in the
189 marketplace. So it really is that simple, folks, when the general population
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193 that is outside the scope of what we do, we're market technicians, we, we like
194 to look at prices moving up and down graphs, and charts and all these types of
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198 things. People that are outside that circle, if they have an opinion about
199 something, it's probably not a good idea for you to be in it in the same
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203 direction or position, that would be explained by someone that's not doing this
204 actively. So again, this is one more evidence as of the things that I talked
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208 about, you know, I didn't create this, I didn't invent it, it's just common
209 knowledge. You know, when the shoeshine boys telling you your stock tips, you
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213 know, stock, it's time to sell. So, in here, we had a run above this old high.
214 So immediately, I teach that your eye should go down to the left to the down,
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218 closed candle right before that new run. That's here, right in here. So we have
219 a down closed candle
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223 to this down closed candle right before this run above this previous high and
224 this is an ICT bearish breaker. Okay, and what this does is it highlights a
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228 specific level, that's three specific levels. It's not a zone, it's not an
229 ambiguous guestimation of where you should be looking for something, okay? It's
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233 three specific levels, okay? It's the highest high, the lowest, low, and middle.
234 Okay? So I go into the mentorship and teach a little bit more refinement with
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238 that. But for public consumption, there's three specific levels you can use for
239 the breaker. And it's just that simple. So how we use it is, eventually price
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243 will go down below this down close candle, which it does on this particular day
244 right there. When that happens, that sets the tone for the market to be in a
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248 potential reversal. Now I know it flies in the face of everyone else that wants
249 to buy these things and hold on hold on. But you still have to pay attention to
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253 what the charts telling you because it's giving you a an accurate depiction of
254 what the mindset is of traders. So if they're losing this level here, and
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258 ultimately they end up losing this one as well, with this run down here. This
259 drop down puts me in an idea that Okay, we're probably not going to be going
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263 higher. And you hear me talk about that in the January 4 recording. In fact,
264 there's another video where it's titled ICT on Bitcoin, actually go into greater
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268 detail why I don't think it's going to go up. I think it's going down a little
269 bit lower. I give you some specific things and why I think that but from a short
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273 term perspective, and here it is, you know, we're right on the heels of the
274 holiday laze around Christmas and New Year being the eighth of January 2018, the
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278 market still has a lot of ironing out to do. So I allow these first couple weeks
279 of the of the new year to trade. And I don't really hold hard and fast to an
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283 idea that pushes me into trading with live funds, because I don't trust the
284 technicals. But it doesn't change the fact that we still have to pay attention
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288 to them. And I want to be engaged in price action throughout this time period,
289 even though not actively in the marketplace taking on risk. So having these
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293 ideas in mind, I go through the process of tracking with prices dealing is it's
294 showing me consistency around that theme of this being a breaker. Okay? So I'm
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298 going to come over here and draw this out as a box. Okay. And this is the part
299 that people when they first come in contact with me, okay, or they get ticked
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303 off, and they want to find some kind of a way of attack. They'll say, ICT
304 teaches supply and demand. And I'm going to show you today, why that's nonsense.
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308 Okay, so here we have a range based on the high of this candle, and the low of
309 this candle. Okay. Inside that range, there's three specific. Well, price
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313 levels, it's the lowest low, the highest high, and in the middle point of that
314 range, which I deem the mean threshold or the middle, okay, or 50%, if you want
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318 to call it that, draw a Fibonacci, put a fib level 50, drop a fib on the high to
319 the low. And wherever that 50 level is draw that out in time. Okay. I'm going to
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323 spare you that because I want to get to the chart clean. But if you look at that
324 range, just from a standpoint of the high in the low, what price levels are
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328 there? Well, you're just about 16,000 level. And you get 16 fy 17,017, five, and
329 just fell short of 18,000. So we don't really want to see price trade above this
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333 high because if it's a breaker, it's going to hold price below this range, if
334 ever trades back up to it now. and here we can see it trades up to this level in
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338 this range starts to sell off again. And I shouldn't move that starts to sell
339 off.
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343 Okay, but it doesn't go below this low here. Price then rallies above here. When
344 I was neutral, I was not bullish. I said that I didn't see any real accumulation
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348 in here. Price did sweep above this high, which will be resting by stops on
349 anyone, anyone that's short here. They come up knock those individuals out. But
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353 that stopped around here. But I said it would need to go above 75. Now the
354 reason why I said it would need to go above 75 for me to be bullish, is because
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358 we would be so close to the 18,000 level to trade the 18,000 would really
359 dismiss this whole bearish breaker idea. And then we probably would be looking
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363 to go higher. And I still maintain that same consensus here that if it trades
364 back up above 17,500. And what do I mean by that? Not just trade through
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368 intraday and come back down? That's not what I'm talking about. He needs to
369 trade above it. Close. Okay, on a daily on a daily basis, we have a daily close
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373 above 17. Five, then and only then would I be looking in considering any type of
374 bullish scenario and waiting for it to run above two to 20,000 Mark, but as it
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378 is right now, I don't see that. Okay, so we've had a series of two days of
379 distribution here on Bitcoin after running these stops the next area of
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383 liquidity or is basically below here. And then ultimately looking for another
384 run that maybe would target this level down here. It was swing low that was
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388 formed right there as well. So I want to drop into an hourly chart for Bitcoin.
389 Alright, so we're looking at a one hour chart on Bitcoin in that shaded area,
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393 again, is that bearish daily breaker? Okay, so prices traded above that this is
394 the old high and it's a dylaney. Stop around here. Okay. And then we have what
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398 this basically the same scenario unfolding a breakdown in market structure. Mark
399 comes back up to that old high in here, and sells off. Now there's several
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403 optimal trade entries in here. There's one. Here's another one. Here's another
404 one in here. And ultimately, what I asked everyone to follow on Twitter this
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408 morning, is that identify where Bitcoin was going to be reaching for now I know
409 if you're watching my stuff the first time now this is gonna seem like all
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413 hindsight stuff. But again, go back and watch the videos and look at the tweets.
414 I've already said all this stuff beforehand. Okay, the idea that we look for
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418 distribution right away anyone that's been studying my material, if we're under
419 distribution or for looking for selling, okay, what is going to be the mechanics
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423 behind that? It's Going to be a sell model, okay, or an ICT market maker sell
424 model, your brain should be hardwired to look for consolidations right here, a
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428 run out of that consolidation, preferably a small little consolidation, and then
429 one more time run up. And then an area distribution where the market breaks
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433 down. So it's smart money reversal on here, low risk sell, another optimal trade
434 entry sell here, sells off, and what's it reach for? Right below the
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438 consolidation, so we have an area in here. So this is the area of an original
439 cumulation. Okay, and we have that in the form. And we use that wick right
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443 there, because that's the lowest point right there. So this is where all the
444 original consolidation or accumulation for the market maker so model
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448 to be really trained around. So they've pumped it out of this consolidation, up
449 above an old high ran all the stops, allow folks that look at this stuff as
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453 continuation patterns and both bull flags or whatever, and it breaks down. Very
454 easy selling opportunity here, small one from this high to this low up in here
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457 00:16:12,210 ~-~-> 00:16:22,410
458 optimal trade entry in an area of mitigation. And it sells off, and it reaches
459 all the way down to the 14,000 level, which is conveniently enough, right down
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462 00:16:22,410 ~-~-> 00:16:30,720
463 to this bullish order block. Now these 123 down close candles, you have to blend
464 all three of those candles together or would be otherwise a three hour candle.
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466 94
467 00:16:30,870 ~-~-> 00:16:39,690
468 Because these candles here represents 60 minutes or one hour. Since they're
469 consecutive in nature. This is all fractal Okay, price action is always fractal.
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473 That means what you see here is the same thing as it would be seen as a three
474 hour basis or one three hour candle. So because the market showed a willingness
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478 to run hard higher from that price point, leaving this down close series of
479 three candles, you stop at the top of that candle here this becomes a bullish
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481 97
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483 ICT order block. Okay or an ICT bullish order block, they will act like magnets,
484 okay, they'll draw a price to them when it's coming down or gone lower. price
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486 98
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488 goes right down to it hits it beautifully in, we have a little bit of a pop in
489 here. But the overall setup is done from a short term or day traders
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493 perspective. Using this model, it's over that that setup is done. Now, it can
494 create a another area of distribution somewhere in here and it might be coming
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496 100
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498 back up to this bearish order block here and then sell off to wash out these
499 equal lows, which is another area of consolidation, leaving the consolidation
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501 101
502 00:17:45,210 ~-~-> 00:17:53,610
503 going back to the original consolidation because this might be an area of re
504 accumulation from a much larger sell model. And I probably want to some of your
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506 102
507 00:17:53,760 ~-~-> 00:18:01,680
508 heads if you're new. But folks have been with me for a while you know exactly
509 what I'm talking about. This could be the next level at Target below those equal
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511 103
512 00:18:01,680 ~-~-> 00:18:10,800
513 lows. Just like we saw this consolidation and it runs up and goes down below it
514 here. Anyone that went long, okay, and has that hold on for dear life mentality,
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516 104
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518 their stops gonna be resting right below that. That's exactly where they went
519 right here to tag those individuals out. They never saw profit, they saw a paper
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521 105
522 00:18:19,140 ~-~-> 00:18:26,370
523 profit where it was looking like it was going to Okay, we're finally gonna go to
524 20,000. And let's retweet everybody has that same opinion, that's cheerlead it
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526 106
527 00:18:26,370 ~-~-> 00:18:32,910
528 up. And ultimately, the price is going to go where it's going to go. Regardless
529 of how many times you do a retweet, or high five, the next guy that believes
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532 00:18:32,910 ~-~-> 00:18:40,290
533 it's going to go to 20,000 Today, okay, it goes right to where the liquidity is.
534 So crypto is in no way different than what I've always taught about all the
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537 00:18:40,290 ~-~-> 00:18:51,540
538 asset classes. It's all about the orders. The orders are what makes or breaks
539 profitability. The orders below old lows in the right context, when you're
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542 00:18:51,540 ~-~-> 00:19:01,320
543 bearish. That's where price is going. Okay, when prices bullish, the orders are
544 resting above an old high, when the context is bullish, that's exactly where
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548 price is gonna gravitate to. It's about those orders. It has nothing to do with
549 your technical patterns. It has nothing to do with animal harmonics. It doesn't
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551 111
552 00:19:07,800 ~-~-> 00:19:15,420
553 have anything to do with ladders, or depth of market, it has none of those
554 things, because they're all gimmicks. All you need to know is the open high, low
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556 112
557 00:19:15,420 ~-~-> 00:19:27,960
558 and close in a certain phenomenon. It takes place around a very generic, small
559 group of concepts that I teach. So it gives you a framework and if you don't see
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561 113
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563 the framework in price action, you don't do anything. So that gives you clarity,
564 and how's that prologic you know what you're looking for? And if it's not there,
565
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568 do you do anything? No, you turn the charts off and you go somewhere else and
569 you spend your time doing something, you know, other than waiting for something
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571 115
572 00:19:41,220 ~-~-> 00:19:54,750
573 that's probably not going to form. So we seen a really nice market maker sell
574 model here on Bitcoin on a 60 minute basis. Again, I did not have the
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576 116
577 00:19:54,780 ~-~-> 00:20:03,720
578 participation on this run up and I actually said this on Twitter that I was
579 neutral on on Bitcoin. I didn't see it as accumulation, and we can see why it
580
581 117
582 00:20:03,720 ~-~-> 00:20:04,410
583 was overall
584
585 118
586 00:20:04,829 ~-~-> 00:20:13,919
587 in an area of distribution. So this one's done, we're going to watch and see if
588 we're getting runs below that 13,000. Mark. If it does, it might accelerate on
589
590 119
591 00:20:13,919 ~-~-> 00:20:23,369
592 the downside and try to challenge that 12,000 level again. But for now, I
593 wouldn't touch it. So let's go over to ripple, which is another crypto, that
594
595 120
596 00:20:23,819 ~-~-> 00:20:32,879
597 some of the guys are really cheerleading on Twitter, and retweet, and everybody
598 that loves this one. Again, I will count you to go back and look at my tweets
599
600 121
601 00:20:32,879 ~-~-> 00:20:42,359
602 and look at the video because I give you this level. And I tell you, it's going
603 down here, okay? Again, you can argue and wrestle with whether you like me, as a
604
605 122
606 00:20:42,359 ~-~-> 00:20:50,039
607 person, I don't care, okay, I teach this stuff that works. If you don't believe
608 me, go through everything and try to dismiss everything that's been shown
609
610 123
611 00:20:50,039 ~-~-> 00:21:03,359
612 beforehand. Okay. I gave $3 Mark, and specifically $3.30 was a level I tweeted
613 in chart form. And I said as it hit $3, I would be out of any Long's 80% of
614
615 124
616 00:21:03,359 ~-~-> 00:21:11,579
617 whatever I would have long and I don't trade these for disclosure sake, I do not
618 trade them, I don't even demo trade them. Okay, I'm actively studying them.
619
620 125
621 00:21:11,579 ~-~-> 00:21:23,819
622 Because I have a large body of audience that use this information, I give out
623 debt, I teach my way of forex and futures and other asset classes. They've been
624
625 126
626 00:21:23,849 ~-~-> 00:21:34,559
627 using it in crypto. So I have been really interested to see how much of an
628 influence my concepts have had on other traders and students. And I can see why
629
630 127
631 00:21:34,559 ~-~-> 00:21:42,149
632 they're excited again. So I've said this many times, and other ones like a
633 broken record. But it is a very fascinating for me as an author for most of the
634
635 128
636 00:21:42,149 ~-~-> 00:21:51,419
637 stuff that you're already using. It's very, very interesting to see it. But I
638 mentioned in in tweet, you go back and look at that, I would be out 80% or
639
640 129
641 00:21:51,419 ~-~-> 00:22:01,469
642 whatever Long's I would have at that $3 mark. And then the next level was $3.30.
643 Now I did have some levels above here, okay. But if I give you a level and
644
645 130
646 00:22:01,499 ~-~-> 00:22:12,419
647 plying, that, the way we practice, if it hits a level, you got to pay yourself,
648 how much do you pay yourself, that's all going to be a unique and personal
649
650 131
651 00:22:12,419 ~-~-> 00:22:20,999
652 thing. Okay, I don't have a system that says, I'm always going to take this much
653 at at this much of a move. It's whatever I feel at the time. And admittedly,
654
655 132
656 00:22:20,999 ~-~-> 00:22:28,559
657 this is one of the weakest things I have in my trading it because I have not
658 really been satisfied with coming up with a method that is black and white,
659
660 133
661 00:22:28,589 ~-~-> 00:22:38,219
662 where it's binary, it's distance that or this or that. It just comes by, you
663 know, experience. And I may never get to the point where I get like that. But
664
665 134
666 00:22:38,459 ~-~-> 00:22:45,899
667 I've encouraged my students to come up with a way where they can do that. And it
668 may be something that I learned from, but that's the only Avenue i think i have
669
670 135
671 00:22:45,899 ~-~-> 00:22:54,269
672 for new learning and trading. Everything else I learned is about myself. But
673 from from a price action standpoint, there's nothing new under the sun for me, I
674
675 136
676 00:22:54,269 ~-~-> 00:23:03,419
677 don't there's nothing out there that is going to show me something new I haven't
678 seen before. Okay. I have a lot of things have been taught other people, lots of
679
680 137
681 00:23:03,419 ~-~-> 00:23:11,579
682 things have been taught. But as far as me learning something new that that
683 doesn't happen. I learned more about myself and my reactions or my expectations
684
685 138
686 00:23:11,579 ~-~-> 00:23:15,599
687 about something more so than I learned about price action itself. So
688
689 139
690 00:23:16,680 ~-~-> 00:23:24,270
691 if I'm saying to myself and making it public knowledge at 80%, I'd be out of my
692 lungs here, and it trades to the next level, how much would be reasonable to
693
694 140
695 00:23:24,270 ~-~-> 00:23:35,040
696 come off at that point? Well, if you only have 20% of a original long position,
697 what would you take off there half that would leave you what 10% one that you
698
699 141
700 00:23:35,040 ~-~-> 00:23:46,590
701 would have potentially 10% get stopped out at some point but you profited 90% of
702 your original position, all the way through up to $3.30 when everyone else was
703
704 142
705 00:23:46,590 ~-~-> 00:23:57,180
706 tweeting, cheerleading on that it's going to go to $5 you get ready to buy your
707 Lamborghini. I'm telling everybody look, there's no justification for that. And
708
709 143
710 00:23:57,180 ~-~-> 00:24:04,920
711 this is where it's at. It's done. We broke down we have a bearish breaker in
712 here. And you have to be mindful that and it's in video Okay, it's time and date
713
714 144
715 00:24:04,920 ~-~-> 00:24:13,080
716 stamp got can't change it. It's in the YouTube server and it's in Twitter's
717 whatever you want to call it their server. It's, it's there, I can't manipulate
718
719 145
720 00:24:13,080 ~-~-> 00:24:23,730
721 it. So I said these things beforehand. I wasn't ambiguous about it. I didn't
722 waffle about it. I said it wasn't going higher. Okay, and I gave you levels to
723
724 146
725 00:24:23,730 ~-~-> 00:24:33,750
726 watch for new setups to form to study it going lower. Okay, I mentioned this
727 bearish order block in here. Okay, that would be one. And I said you want to
728
729 147
730 00:24:33,750 ~-~-> 00:24:41,130
731 watch around that $3 Mark, because it's going to probably give you another
732 opportunity for distribution. It did that very thing here. And we sold off and
733
734 148
735 00:24:41,130 ~-~-> 00:24:48,960
736 we went down to $2.40 where everyone else was looking at this low here saying
737 it's going to go down there and it's going to start to pop Okay, we're calling a
738
739 149
740 00:24:48,960 ~-~-> 00:24:57,630
741 bounce. It was a dead cat bounce. Okay, it bounced right up to a level I said it
742 was gonna miss sell and it sold off right there. went down to my level $2.40 and
743
744 150
745 00:24:57,630 ~-~-> 00:25:06,000
746 then ultimately went consolidated. Okay, and Then created another opportunity to
747 do what? That's what I'm talking to you about today. I said in previous
748
749 151
750 00:25:06,030 ~-~-> 00:25:13,950
751 recordings that $2 was the level I would expect it to go for, which will be
752 sweeping up this low. Why did I say that low? Because that's where the orders
753
754 152
755 00:25:13,950 ~-~-> 00:25:21,660
756 were, I told you that was where the orders were, that's exactly where the mark
757 is going to go. I give you interpretations from a market maker standpoint, I
758
759 153
760 00:25:21,660 ~-~-> 00:25:29,730
761 don't teach retail, I don't cherry pick from different mentors and people and
762 try to create some content unique new thing. I'm telling you how an
763
764 154
765 00:25:29,730 ~-~-> 00:25:38,040
766 institutional mindset would interpret price action. And I bridge that gap with a
767 chart and I show you exactly where they're going to take it. And it happens
768
769 155
770 00:25:38,040 ~-~-> 00:25:46,050
771 every single week, every single month, every single day. I'm giving you example,
772 after example, either I'm the luckiest son of a bitch on the planet, or there's
773
774 156
775 00:25:46,050 ~-~-> 00:25:52,920
776 something that I'm talking about that has validity. And again, the people that
777 want to wrestle with this stuff, I want to shake him by the lapels and like to
778
779 157
780 00:25:52,920 ~-~-> 00:26:03,210
781 just stop and just pay attention. Okay, just pay attention to what I'm teaching
782 you because you're being stubborn. And you want to have this team mentality,
783
784 158
785 00:26:03,510 ~-~-> 00:26:10,770
786 because you like someone or you've thought you probably paid for something for
787 someone else, and you feel like a fool because you're doing that and they're not
788
789 159
790 00:26:10,770 ~-~-> 00:26:21,510
791 doing what you're seeing here. And I'm doing my stuff for free right now. I'm
792 showing you on a all risk of my saving face. Okay, I'm out here openly telling
793
794 160
795 00:26:21,510 ~-~-> 00:26:30,840
796 you what I think's going to happen. If I'm wrong, you'll see that I'm wrong. How
797 many times is that occurring? It's not having a lot. It's going to script
798
799 161
800 00:26:31,050 ~-~-> 00:26:41,670
801 because I understand how prices delivered period that the level experienced that
802 is lacking in Twitter. There's a lot of people out there, I think that are
803
804 162
805 00:26:42,060 ~-~-> 00:26:49,170
806 pretty decent individuals that are very worthwhile in terms of following and
807 listening to some of the things they're doing. In fact, it's very interesting to
808
809 163
810 00:26:49,170 ~-~-> 00:27:01,020
811 see what they're doing. But there isn't a lot of experience in the sense that
812 they know what they're doing. They're still experiencing new learning. I'm not,
813
814 164
815 00:27:01,320 ~-~-> 00:27:09,600
816 I'm not doing those types of things. And yes, it sounds egotistical, but this is
817 what the experience sounds like, you know, when everyone else around you has
818
819 165
820 00:27:09,600 ~-~-> 00:27:18,810
821 less experience. It's hard not to sound egotistical, because how else would I
822 draw contrast to it? I'm superior because I've been doing it longer. That's the
823
824 166
825 00:27:18,810 ~-~-> 00:27:26,310
826 only thing. It's not because I wear a different style of clothing or drive a
827 better car or live in a better home. It's because I've been doing it longer.
828
829 167
830 00:27:26,340 ~-~-> 00:27:34,770
831 That's all I'm trying to distinguish. Okay, so I would put more faith behind
832 someone who has done something much longer than someone that has been right a
833
834 168
835 00:27:34,770 ~-~-> 00:27:45,180
836 few times recently. And you really can't substantiate what they've said, based
837 on what they actually do. Okay, so now just leave that for you to determine what
838
839 169
840 00:27:45,180 ~-~-> 00:27:58,050
841 you want to see value in. But I drew everyone's attention to this low back here
842 in video. Okay. Look at it, you'll see it's there. It's in. It's in YouTube. So
843
844 170
845 00:27:58,050 ~-~-> 00:27:58,800
846 my YouTube channel.
847
848 171
849 00:27:58,890 ~-~-> 00:28:07,380
850 Okay, so I drew everyone's attention to that level right there. That's where the
851 orders are. What orders that's where everyone's protective cell stop is for the
852
853 172
854 00:28:07,380 ~-~-> 00:28:17,070
855 hold on for dear lifers. Now, anyone that bought down here, what did they make?
856 zip, because they just got knocked out down here, right there, they got to they
857
858 173
859 00:28:17,070 ~-~-> 00:28:25,020
860 get taken out. So they may be on Twitter, preaching and hard and heavy
861 cheerleading. So we're gonna pump out and retweet and everybody that's in love
862
863 174
864 00:28:25,020 ~-~-> 00:28:34,350
865 with ripple, it's going to be the next thing it's going to, it's going to that
866 it might be, but it's still going to take you out of the moves before that all
867
868 175
869 00:28:34,380 ~-~-> 00:28:42,570
870 would take place. And that's what I'm trying to teach people to observe, you
871 need to see those things. So what led to this move down to the level I called
872
873 176
874 00:28:42,570 ~-~-> 00:28:56,700
875 for beforehand, $2 Mark, this run back to the three hour mark here. Okay? This
876 is the same thing as this move here. Price is fractal. Everything you see in one
877
878 177
879 00:28:56,700 ~-~-> 00:29:06,240
880 timeframe or one scale is replicated in another either in a larger capacity or a
881 smaller capacity. That means if you see something that occurs in a five minute
882
883 178
884 00:29:06,240 ~-~-> 00:29:15,780
885 chart, it has been added to it. The same thing can form on a 15 minute chart, a
886 one hour chart, a three hour chart, a daily chart, a monthly chart, a yearly
887
888 179
889 00:29:15,780 ~-~-> 00:29:25,830
890 chart, it's all fractal. So when you understand the mechanics of what you're
891 looking for, not bull flags, because there's really nothing valid about a bull
892
893 180
894 00:29:25,830 ~-~-> 00:29:34,230
895 flag. Okay? When you look at the interpretation of an ice breaker, there's
896 something behind it then just simply saying it's a continuation pattern, which
897
898 181
899 00:29:34,230 ~-~-> 00:29:43,710
900 it's not it's actually a reversal pattern. But the context behind a breaker
901 pattern is this. You have to have an old high in any time price runs above the
902
903 182
904 00:29:43,710 ~-~-> 00:29:51,030
905 old high if I'm already suspecting This is probably not going to continue. And
906 why did I say let me let me go back I'm gonna kind of like fill in this gap and
907
908 183
909 00:29:51,480 ~-~-> 00:30:01,530
910 proceed on as to what led to this drop off over here. What I see in price How
911 did I know that $3 is a good idea to take any percent of the Long's off there.
912
913 184
914 00:30:01,770 ~-~-> 00:30:10,320
915 And in 330, was there, okay, 330, I'm not going to give you a context of what
916 330 was specifically. But in here, if you're in my mentorship, you'll end up
917
918 185
919 00:30:10,320 ~-~-> 00:30:16,170
920 seeing charts that show you why that was there. But, and I had not put them up
921 there. Some mentorship students, don't freak out, say, Well, I don't do that
922
923 186
924 00:30:16,170 ~-~-> 00:30:22,800
925 chart, I'm going to give it to you, because it's already hit my level. So I'd go
926 back to that and give you all the details in the dress at all. But the fact is,
927
928 187
929 00:30:22,800 ~-~-> 00:30:30,180
930 I gave these levels and my interpretation of why it wasn't going higher,
931 beforehand, okay, and I gave you the reasons why I told you the scenarios,
932
933 188
934 00:30:30,180 ~-~-> 00:30:41,790
935 what's going to happen, it's going to come down, trade up to $3, and then trade
936 down to two. That's what you got it right there. So what led to the idea that $3
937
938 189
939 00:30:41,790 ~-~-> 00:30:56,160
940 and 330 was about it? Well, if you have volume, and I always usually take the
941 volume off, one on my charts here. But if you have volume bars on here, you plot
942
943 190
944 00:30:56,160 ~-~-> 00:31:07,680
945 that on your chart. Let me see if I can pull mine up again. Alright, so here we
946 have the volume back on a chart. And I want you to take a look at how volume
947
948 191
949 00:31:08,580 ~-~-> 00:31:20,550
950 precedes price. Okay, when I share levels, obviously, people have an issue with
951 me, because I'm doing way better than they are. They will challenge and say I
952
953 192
954 00:31:20,550 ~-~-> 00:31:27,600
955 give you a myriad of levels, and then want to come back later on and say I
956 called this move, I called that move. No, actually, I only talk about the
957
958 193
959 00:31:27,600 ~-~-> 00:31:35,340
960 specific moves I mentioned. And that's what I'm doing here today. But I give
961 specific levels, because I want you as my student, assessing mentorship
962
963 194
964 00:31:35,340 ~-~-> 00:31:43,440
965 students, because they have a greater understanding what's going on. They know
966 what to look for around these levels. What constitutes a setup, just because I
967
968 195
969 00:31:43,440 ~-~-> 00:31:51,840
970 have a level in mind doesn't mean there is going to be a trade there, I have to
971 still wait for something to form. But the levels are there beforehand, to my
972
973 196
974 00:31:51,840 ~-~-> 00:32:00,450
975 attention is focused at the time price is trading at it. So when trace price is
976 trading at that $3 Mark, I want you to take a look at what's happened. At this
977
978 197
979 00:32:00,450 ~-~-> 00:32:09,960
980 time, we've created a new high to the left, we go right back to this price point
981 right here. Okay, so this this high, and now we have a new, higher high. At that
982
983 198
984 00:32:09,960 ~-~-> 00:32:18,780
985 time, right here, this candle, we have a reference point on the volume in here.
986 Now there's going to be all kinds of spikes, and there's gonna be variations of
987
988 199
989 00:32:18,780 ~-~-> 00:32:27,270
990 all that stuff, okay, but I want you to really use this tool, okay, because I'm
991 gonna give you something here that has given me a great deal of X ray vision, if
992
993 200
994 00:32:27,270 ~-~-> 00:32:35,730
995 you will, around key levels already know what level should be key, but when I
996 see volume, support it and you'll hear me talk about volume. Okay, only the
997
998 201
999 00:32:35,730 ~-~-> 00:32:43,230
1000 folks that watch me do things with commodities. Ever seen me do anything with
1001 volume, but volume precedes price? And what do I mean by that? We have a high
1002
1003 202
1004 00:32:43,230 ~-~-> 00:32:57,870
1005 back here. Okay, a new high. So on this particular day, we have and when is that
1006 the third of January? Okay, so in here, we
1007
1008 203
1009 00:32:58,920 ~-~-> 00:33:16,080
1010 get these crosshairs on this high here, we have this volume bar right here. So
1011 this volume bar, and then we have a new high here, Casey, that. So we have this
1012
1013 204
1014 00:33:16,080 ~-~-> 00:33:27,960
1015 candle represent this volume. And then we have this new candle high. And we have
1016 slightly higher volume there. Now watch what happens when you create a new high.
1017
1018 205
1019 00:33:28,860 ~-~-> 00:33:39,120
1020 Over here. We have all this run up here. But now look what happens. The volume
1021 is way down here. That's way lower than that. Does that indicate new buying? No,
1022
1023 206
1024 00:33:39,540 ~-~-> 00:33:51,300
1025 absolutely not. What about the high appear? Look at that. Is that indicative of
1026 new buying volume should be doing something like this should be going higher?
1027
1028 207
1029 00:33:51,960 ~-~-> 00:34:05,910
1030 It's not to look at the overall scheme of what's going on. We see price action,
1031 going higher, making higher highs. Okay. But in the interpretation of volume,
1032
1033 208
1034 00:34:06,480 ~-~-> 00:34:22,680
1035 that should be seen with higher volume nodes. is that happening? No. This is
1036 distribution. All of this running up is the Long's selling out of their
1037
1038 209
1039 00:34:22,680 ~-~-> 00:34:33,060
1040 position. Not new buying. So when you look back over on Twitter, and you see all
1041 these hot shots, they think they're smart. They're all gonna retire. They're not
1042
1043 210
1044 00:34:33,210 ~-~-> 00:34:40,200
1045 looking at things like this because they don't know what they're doing. They
1046 have no idea what they're doing. They're falling along with the herd mentality.
1047
1048 211
1049 00:34:40,470 ~-~-> 00:34:48,360
1050 cheerleading it on hold on for dear life. We're all gonna laugh at everybody
1051 else later on. Who's laughing now? That's my question of the day who's laughing
1052
1053 212
1054 00:34:48,360 ~-~-> 00:35:01,830
1055 now? Because I'm telling you things that make sense because they exist. Not only
1056 just because I see them today, but they've always been there. Mark makers have
1057
1058 213
1059 00:35:01,830 ~-~-> 00:35:12,420
1060 levels in which they want to allow assets to trade to, not for your benefit, but
1061 for the benefit of them, or clients that are in business with them banks, large
1062
1063 214
1064 00:35:12,420 ~-~-> 00:35:20,070
1065 institutions. So when we trade around key levels, what makes it a key level,
1066 there's several things that I teach around that. But it's not support
1067
1068 215
1069 00:35:20,070 ~-~-> 00:35:30,720
1070 resistance. Because these levels were not even here, when I gave $3 and $3.30,
1071 that has never been traded to buy ripple. But I gave you that specific level and
1072
1073 216
1074 00:35:30,720 ~-~-> 00:35:42,060
1075 it was only off by a penny and a half a half a penny. That's tight. For an asset
1076 class, I don't even trade I said that it wasn't going to go higher. And we have
1077
1078 217
1079 00:35:42,060 ~-~-> 00:35:50,970
1080 a ICT bearish breaker in here, price trades up into that breaker where we have
1081 this down closed candle. We have a bearish breaker in here. So this new high
1082
1083 218
1084 00:35:51,330 ~-~-> 00:35:59,280
1085 that broke above and we get this across here sounds a little bit hard to see
1086 that we have this high here. We have a new hot here trading right to the level I
1087
1088 219
1089 00:35:59,280 ~-~-> 00:36:08,880
1090 call for three hours and 30 cents, when only 80% of the position would still be
1091 on at that time. Why? Because volume has given me the indication that we're go
1092
1093 220
1094 00:36:08,880 ~-~-> 00:36:15,840
1095 we're close to an area distribution. Okay. And then we see the technical
1096 support, it will break down in market structure and then we trade back to the
1097
1098 221
1099 00:36:15,840 ~-~-> 00:36:24,330
1100 breaker here and have one more deeper retracement, I said watch that $3. Mark.
1101 Why because it's going to be a level of value, they want to get out of their
1102
1103 222
1104 00:36:24,330 ~-~-> 00:36:30,900
1105 long position around $3. They're not going to take your long positions off down
1106 here. They're going to drive it up and wait for it to hit $3. And then they can
1107
1108 223
1109 00:36:30,900 ~-~-> 00:36:38,760
1110 get out of what they couldn't get out here on the first time. It's sold here,
1111 they started selling and distributing their their profits here. They rally up,
1112
1113 224
1114 00:36:38,760 ~-~-> 00:36:46,620
1115 they sold some more, came back down up to here, they sold some more here. They
1116 left that level of value and then right back to $3. Again, they sold it and then
1117
1118 225
1119 00:36:46,620 ~-~-> 00:36:55,800
1120 look what happens. The majority of the selling peaks place what's going on
1121 there. any residual Long's that were riding all the way up here. They sold out
1122
1123 226
1124 00:36:55,800 ~-~-> 00:37:05,910
1125 and added new shorts. Now new selling came in? What is how can you? How can you
1126 see that? What what's the interpretation behind that? Well, let's go back to
1127
1128 227
1129 00:37:05,910 ~-~-> 00:37:13,230
1130 volume. All right. Alright, so now we have that same premise. But now we're
1131 going to switch our perspective. Okay. Now what we're going to do is run a
1132
1133 228
1134 00:37:13,230 ~-~-> 00:37:25,020
1135 measure, again, anything that we're seeing going up, we're not looking for that
1136 to be seen as buying. Otherwise, we would see volume increasing. As we see this
1137
1138 229
1139 00:37:25,020 ~-~-> 00:37:32,430
1140 high here, it's been breached with this high here. So between these two
1141 reference points, there should be a higher volume node. Let's go back over here.
1142
1143 230
1144 00:37:33,690 ~-~-> 00:37:43,350
1145 crosshairs, we're gonna put it on this swing high here. So we have this nodule
1146 right here, per volume. Okay, and then we're gonna look at this high here.
1147
1148 231
1149 00:37:44,670 ~-~-> 00:37:56,070
1150 So from this candle, and this note on the volume, and this one. So we had a
1151 higher volume here on this high, and then we had this higher high form with a
1152
1153 232
1154 00:37:56,070 ~-~-> 00:38:05,940
1155 lower volume node. So it's not new buying that's going back up to that breaker
1156 is just being repriced. That's all that is. So when that occurs, we know that
1157
1158 233
1159 00:38:05,940 ~-~-> 00:38:15,600
1160 this is going to be a selling point, which I already gave you before volume even
1161 showed it and before price ever traded there. Wow, it just hit you didn't it? I
1162
1163 234
1164 00:38:15,600 ~-~-> 00:38:23,610
1165 can see ship before happens, folks, whether you like it or not learn to love it
1166 because it's consistent. This is distribution and ICT parish breaker. Now how
1167
1168 235
1169 00:38:23,610 ~-~-> 00:38:31,410
1170 can you measure that from this high as prices dropping, then and only then
1171 should volume start to go higher each time it starts to move lower, we should
1172
1173 236
1174 00:38:31,410 ~-~-> 00:38:44,040
1175 see higher volume nodes from this candle here. prices drop dropping, we took out
1176 these loads here it should be done on high volume. These levels here, here's
1177
1178 237
1179 00:38:44,070 ~-~-> 00:38:48,990
1180 volume. And we have price trading through it on this candle right there.
1181
1182 238
1183 00:38:49,499 ~-~-> 00:38:49,949
1184 We got
1185
1186 239
1187 00:38:49,950 ~-~-> 00:39:04,140
1188 it. Prices driving higher all the volume we went from low volume, the high
1189 volume and bang. large volume node largest one. Now, this is not stopping volume
1190
1191 240
1192 00:39:04,140 ~-~-> 00:39:11,010
1193 as the essay will teach now they'll teach it stuff like that. Okay, but that's
1194 not what that is. It's not stopping shit. It's all it's doing is giving you an
1195
1196 241
1197 00:39:11,010 ~-~-> 00:39:18,690
1198 indication it's going to go lower again, we're going to go to level I call for
1199 where this liquidity is right below this low. So yes, we went back up and we
1200
1201 242
1202 00:39:18,690 ~-~-> 00:39:27,900
1203 consolidate but what do we do what we what were we actually doing in here? Let's
1204 go back. Okay, so let's go over here and get the crosshairs off. We have this
1205
1206 243
1207 00:39:27,900 ~-~-> 00:39:38,490
1208 low here. And we went back up into a range what range are we looking at? We have
1209 another breaker this big down closed candle is the ICT bearish breaker for this
1210
1211 244
1212 00:39:38,490 ~-~-> 00:39:49,620
1213 run on this swing high. So this run on the stops our eyes go right to here.
1214 Okay, so now we're gonna do that same thing we did earlier drawing a box which
1215
1216 245
1217 00:39:49,620 ~-~-> 00:39:58,950
1218 looks like everyone else supplying the moon, but it's not supplying the man.
1219 This is technicals from an institutional perspective reading the market from how
1220
1221 246
1222 00:40:01,230 ~-~-> 00:40:09,390
1223 liquidity as seen, okay, I'm trying to be very careful how I say these things
1224 because I don't want to divulge any mentorship stuff, but we have a bearish ice
1225
1226 247
1227 00:40:09,390 ~-~-> 00:40:22,380
1228 breaker. Price trades up into it. So, so look where it stops it stopping at the
1229 top of that candle. Okay, and then boom hits what level 22 or 2.8 level? Okay,
1230
1231 248
1232 00:40:22,620 ~-~-> 00:40:35,160
1233 so we have that at phenomenon taking place, which I like hits it, and then we
1234 leave it come back up. mitigation sells off. Where's it go to to our mark?
1235
1236 249
1237 00:40:35,640 ~-~-> 00:40:43,800
1238 Everything I say what's going to happen? And look what it does it goes there.
1239 Where's all this volume? where's this going coming from? That's everybody stops
1240
1241 250
1242 00:40:43,800 ~-~-> 00:40:53,700
1243 resting right below there that was not just knocked out. Folks, this was told to
1244 you before it happened. It was told you in nauseum in terms of detail why it was
1245
1246 251
1247 00:40:53,700 ~-~-> 00:41:01,770
1248 going to happen. It's there. So listen to the bullshit if you want, you know,
1249 the guy never gives any trades in advance. He never talks about things before it
1250
1251 252
1252 00:41:01,770 ~-~-> 00:41:10,410
1253 happens. yada yada yada. The shit I'm talking about happens to script. Okay, I
1254 don't see anybody else doing this stuff. Okay, I can tell you what the markets
1255
1256 253
1257 00:41:10,410 ~-~-> 00:41:17,790
1258 going to do, not just in the next move. But what it's going to do as a scenario.
1259 What's going to take the stops out what's going to draw new liquidity in, put
1260
1261 254
1262 00:41:17,790 ~-~-> 00:41:28,320
1263 people on the wrong side. Come on how many times you have to see this stuff
1264 before you dismiss any other any other outside influence. Seriously, I'm here.
1265
1266 255
1267 00:41:28,470 ~-~-> 00:41:38,940
1268 It didn't cost you anything for me at the time to listen. But it's exactly what
1269 I said what's going to happen to many of you are so hopped up on the hot hand
1270
1271 256
1272 00:41:38,940 ~-~-> 00:41:46,980
1273 right now, I'm telling you, I don't have a hot hand, I have a steady hand. Okay,
1274 I don't want to be hot once in a while. I want to be steady Eddie, I want to be
1275
1276 257
1277 00:41:46,980 ~-~-> 00:41:54,210
1278 the guy that knows what's going to happen most likely, and I only want to
1279 execute them. And that's it. We see here over and over and over again. In an
1280
1281 258
1282 00:41:54,210 ~-~-> 00:42:03,180
1283 asset class I don't even trade with live money with this is stuff that I'm just
1284 studying just like everyone else is okay. But I'm not out here cheerleading and
1285
1286 259
1287 00:42:03,180 ~-~-> 00:42:11,340
1288 saying ripples going to the moon ripples going to $5 I'm going to cash out
1289 everything. That's not what I'm doing, folks. I'm telling you what's going on
1290
1291 260
1292 00:42:11,340 ~-~-> 00:42:22,410
1293 behind the scenes, why it's going to happen. And it's there. It's not a guess.
1294 It's not gambling. Here's the science behind what I said and why it took place.
1295
1296 261
1297 00:42:22,950 ~-~-> 00:42:30,690
1298 Go back and look at it. It's there. It's documented. I didn't have 15 different
1299 things that could happen. I can go back later on. I gave very specific
1300
1301 262
1302 00:42:30,690 ~-~-> 00:42:43,470
1303 scenarios. Exactly why should take place. And it happened. And it does this all
1304 the time, every single week. This is what happens on a forex setup where we know
1305
1306 263
1307 00:42:43,470 ~-~-> 00:42:49,860
1308 that certain parameters are there, certain things are going to take place and we
1309 stock that all I did was it gave me what I would have done if this was a forex
1310
1311 264
1312 00:42:49,860 ~-~-> 00:42:51,660
1313 pair. That's
1314
1315 265
1316 00:42:51,900 ~-~-> 00:42:52,680
1317 how it works.
1318
1319 266
1320 00:42:53,070 ~-~-> 00:43:01,710
1321 So speaking of forex, let's go over to forex. I'm gonna talk about something I
1322 did on non farm payroll. Alright, so here's that demo account. Again, always,
1323
1324 267
1325 00:43:01,710 ~-~-> 00:43:09,420
1326 every time I show this, make sure you keep track of that number up here, because
1327 that number is not going to change. Okay, I'm going to show you accountability.
1328
1329 268
1330 00:43:09,840 ~-~-> 00:43:18,510
1331 The thing that's lacking I'm not using half a dozen demo accounts, I'm going to
1332 use one that we can see what we can do with just one and using proper risk
1333
1334 269
1335 00:43:18,510 ~-~-> 00:43:29,850
1336 management and money management approaches. So let's go over I'm gonna show you
1337 a video I did last Friday, and I look at the time. Okay, this is recorded and
1338
1339 270
1340 00:43:29,880 ~-~-> 00:43:38,490
1341 made beforehand, but it didn't trade to the level I called for in the video, but
1342 it did today. Right so you can see the time and the date when this was made.
1343
1344 271
1345 00:43:38,970 ~-~-> 00:43:45,840
1346 This is all new york time. Okay. And the reason why I didn't post it because I
1347 wanted to see if we could get down to it today. It doesn't make a difference.
1348
1349 272
1350 00:43:45,840 ~-~-> 00:43:53,640
1351 And you'll see why it wasn't really shared. Because the part about the
1352 eurodollar was already shared on social media through Twitter. But I want to
1353
1354 273
1355 00:43:53,640 ~-~-> 00:44:03,060
1356 show you what was not seen from the cable standpoint and what we ended up seeing
1357 as a later result. So I'm going to go to this video here. I'll just play it.
1358
1359 274
1360 00:44:11,370 ~-~-> 00:44:18,540
1361 Again this not to show the disclaimers, folks, I apologize for that. But it is
1362 what it is.
1363
1364 275
1365 00:44:49,980 ~-~-> 00:45:02,190
1366 to notice that I'm doing this On Friday
1367
1368 276
1369 00:45:16,770 ~-~-> 00:45:21,330
1370 and this isn't that this is how I practice non farm payroll.
1371
1372 277
1373 00:46:41,760 ~-~-> 00:46:54,240
1374 Now watch out price starts to run higher. Okay.
1375
1376 278
1377 00:47:07,830 ~-~-> 00:47:19,680
1378 So I'm going to frame two potential scenarios for you here. Either one would
1379 have been fine, but it's not fine payable, so it's practice only.
1380
1381 279
1382 00:47:27,960 ~-~-> 00:47:34,080
1383 So measuring the PIP spread between entry to 30 pips above that would be
1384
1385 280
1386 00:47:50,550 ~-~-> 00:47:52,770
1387 this is the one we shared on public on Twitter.
1388
1389 281
1390 00:48:03,810 ~-~-> 00:48:07,320
1391 You want to look at Twitter and I shared that chart as well.
1392
1393 282
1394 00:48:43,469 ~-~-> 00:48:47,219
1395 That's what we're seeing here. So I'm going to outline a short
1396
1397 283
1398 00:49:00,390 ~-~-> 00:49:12,180
1399 so there's two scenarios or setups here. One was the bearish order block with a
1400 stop at 3599. And now I'm going to show you turtle soup which is the run above
1401
1402 284
1403 00:49:12,180 ~-~-> 00:49:18,840
1404 the initial highlight day, which is the characteristic of non farm payroll. Run
1405 the stops.
1406
1407 285
1408 00:49:24,570 ~-~-> 00:49:30,360
1409 To have to wait for price get back above that initial high Tring, preferably
1410 above 3580.
1411
1412 286
1413 00:49:37,949 ~-~-> 00:49:44,939
1414 Again, notice the time down in the lower right hand corner when this is
1415 occurring. It's just a few minutes shortly after non farm payroll numbers have
1416
1417 287
1418 00:49:44,939 ~-~-> 00:49:45,659
1419 been released.
1420
1421 288
1422 00:50:10,260 ~-~-> 00:50:18,270
1423 Public numbers as a smokescreen to run out liquidity, and referring to
1424 employment numbers there.
1425
1426 289
1427 00:50:25,290 ~-~-> 00:50:35,910
1428 Now middlee, I guess you're here. I thought that we could get that 3520 level
1429 last Friday, but you'll see how I managed that. It didn't happen that day. But
1430
1431 290
1432 00:50:35,910 ~-~-> 00:50:45,480
1433 we did get it eventually today, as on Monday, the eighth of January to number
1434 about the initial highlight day. So watch what I start outlining in here. The
1435
1436 291
1437 00:50:45,480 ~-~-> 00:50:55,230
1438 tricky one, the institutional 3580 level. So I'll map out my perspective on what
1439 I think might be seen in price as a result of this
1440
1441 292
1442 00:51:20,010 ~-~-> 00:51:23,430
1443 in prices above the initial tie today,
1444
1445 293
1446 00:51:32,429 ~-~-> 00:51:43,289
1447 basic evidence, which tells me that we might maybe punch a little bit higher,
1448 but it's going to be limited in scope. So it isn't going to be like a run to 36
1449
1450 294
1451 00:51:43,289 ~-~-> 00:52:18,239
1452 big figure. So I want to be selling above that initial high today and No, I'll
1453 be really close to the Hi Mike right about now. Which also
1454
1455 295
1456 00:52:24,179 ~-~-> 00:52:25,169
1457 notice that the idea
1458
1459 296
1460 00:52:48,239 ~-~-> 00:52:52,679
1461 that's where the stop is for the bearish order block. Now I'm going to give you
1462 a setup for turtle soup
1463
1464 297
1465 00:52:58,650 ~-~-> 00:53:00,870
1466 836 Friday, January 5.
1467
1468 298
1469 00:53:07,860 ~-~-> 00:53:27,030
1470 If it were like it was not included, please be sure. Okay. Now watch how much
1471 price moves against this idea or outline.
1472
1473 299
1474 00:53:37,650 ~-~-> 00:53:42,480
1475 The high on that candle is 3582. Once
1476
1477 300
1478 00:53:48,989 ~-~-> 00:53:51,329
1479 again, highs 3582 right now.
1480
1481 301
1482 00:54:18,570 ~-~-> 00:54:26,670
1483 That's a joke Kevin hooks and
1484
1485 302
1486 00:54:33,660 ~-~-> 00:55:14,640
1487 typically on the sidelines so Tuesday Once again
1488
1489 303
1490 00:56:23,130 ~-~-> 00:56:24,360
1491 pay attention to this
1492
1493 304
1494 00:56:45,540 ~-~-> 00:56:54,900
1495 so with that said I would like to take profits at that level admin at that
1496 equilibrium price point. As you'll see later on as I make reference to that
1497
1498 305
1499 00:57:00,570 ~-~-> 00:57:12,420
1500 now eventually I would be speeding this recording up as you'll see. Got to start
1501 it used for the bears were black will be the same with the turtle soup here.
1502
1503 306
1504 00:57:12,690 ~-~-> 00:57:18,480
1505 3599. Very, very tight stops
1506
1507 307
1508 00:57:43,830 ~-~-> 00:59:39,870
1509 up. Okay, we're coming up close to time I'll start recording this at a higher
1510 rate of speed.
1511
1512 308
1513 01:00:04,440 ~-~-> 01:00:08,700
1514 So that way you guys know what I'm doing.
1515
1516 309
1517 01:00:39,540 ~-~-> 01:00:48,960
1518 Alright, it should be going a little bit faster now. So while I said at the time
1519 when I was recording on Friday, or that night hasn't started yet, it should in a
1520
1521 310
1522 01:00:48,960 ~-~-> 01:00:59,940
1523 minute or two, I'm actually going to dub over that now with commentary that
1524 would otherwise not be there because it's not being recorded. It's being sped
1525
1526 311
1527 01:00:59,940 ~-~-> 01:01:13,620
1528 up. Like now. Now we're going like 5000 times greater speed. Okay, so at the
1529 time I gave that entry at that red level, okay, trading around that 3580 level
1530
1531 312
1532 01:01:13,620 ~-~-> 01:01:24,810
1533 institutional level, I want you to see how much of a heat is put on this
1534 position. Okay, and also watch how many times we get a reaction off of that
1535
1536 313
1537 01:01:24,810 ~-~-> 01:01:38,370
1538 bearish order block, which is the lower level line right in here. Okay. So this
1539 wants that. So we have a run down. And I'm going to come in and give commentary
1540
1541 314
1542 01:01:38,370 ~-~-> 01:01:47,250
1543 about taking profits there. Because I mentioned the idea of equilibrium. It
1544 could be a consolidation day gives us Friday's non farm payroll, we ran out to
1545
1546 315
1547 01:01:47,250 ~-~-> 01:01:57,360
1548 buy stops, so it may ultimately reach for that low, but it may not do it Friday.
1549 So I want to come back in and give insights and why and taking profits.
1550
1551 316
1552 01:02:13,410 ~-~-> 01:02:21,810
1553 This is a paper trade is not live. And this is all practices is what I do with
1554 non farm payroll Fridays.
1555
1556 317
1557 01:02:31,020 ~-~-> 01:02:35,490
1558 It'll be 30 pips will be pocketed, says he experienced.
1559
1560 318
1561 01:02:48,510 ~-~-> 01:02:51,240
1562 Which is also another reason why I would like to take profits there.
1563
1564 319
1565 01:03:39,000 ~-~-> 01:03:53,790
1566 No pay attention. That part just said to the spacing mentioned was because the
1567 probabilities are so high that will go consolidate or sideways, I may not see
1568
1569 320
1570 01:03:53,790 ~-~-> 01:04:03,720
1571 that 3520 level hits. So I want to take the bulk of 75% 80% of the short
1572 position on today's outline, here's a paper trade, it's beneficial to take a big
1573
1574 321
1575 01:04:03,720 ~-~-> 01:04:12,450
1576 large portion off at equilibrium of the daily range because it may not go
1577 outside of the range is already defined at this time. So having that mindset,
1578
1579 322
1580 01:04:12,750 ~-~-> 01:04:22,440
1581 okay, the market makers made keep it so narrow once they run the stops to hold
1582 over into the new week. And I may be entirely wrong, it could go screaming above
1583
1584 323
1585 01:04:22,440 ~-~-> 01:04:29,670
1586 136 big figure which would stop me out anyway. Or eventually trade down below
1587 that 135 20 level did knock out those stops.
1588
1589 324
1590 01:04:39,600 ~-~-> 01:04:47,700
1591 Ultimately, what you'll end up seeing is the market comes back up to that
1592 bearish order block and does eventually trade a little bit higher which would
1593
1594 325
1595 01:04:47,700 ~-~-> 01:05:00,450
1596 have either stopped me out or as you'll see in the video, it comes to 11 o'clock
1597 in the morning, New York time, which is the London close kills and where it's In
1598
1599 326
1600 01:05:00,450 ~-~-> 01:05:10,500
1601 a trade, I want to be collapsing any open positions as a day trade and move to
1602 the sidelines. So just watch that in the lower right hand corner. We're at
1603
1604 327
1605 01:05:10,500 ~-~-> 01:05:22,620
1606 10:30am at the time on Friday of last week, non farm payroll. And you can see
1607 that the markets really showing no willingness to want to go lower, having all
1608
1609 328
1610 01:05:22,620 ~-~-> 01:05:31,950
1611 characteristics lending well to consolidation, or it could just gravitate
1612 towards my stop. So I'm watching it's a couple minutes before 11 o'clock in the
1613
1614 329
1615 01:05:31,950 ~-~-> 01:05:41,730
1616 morning, again, I would be in a position where 80% 75 to 8575 to 80% of my
1617 position would have been banked. But because it's a paper trade on I'm only
1618
1619 330
1620 01:05:41,730 ~-~-> 01:05:47,850
1621 outlining it in that sense. But here we are, we're getting an idea of the
1622 commentary about taking the position Off
1623
1624 331
1625 01:06:13,530 ~-~-> 01:06:27,000
1626 you go that would have been another 18 pips there. So the bounce with 20 to 25%
1627 remaining would have seen the about 18 pips gain and the first 80 to 75% saw 30
1628
1629 332
1630 01:06:27,000 ~-~-> 01:06:39,810
1631 pips and ultimately can see with time it goes back up to a point at which events
1632 you either would have stopped me or shown me no profitability so that's why use
1633
1634 333
1635 01:06:39,810 ~-~-> 01:06:52,380
1636 kill zones ICT kill zones their time references to not kill zones and areas on
1637 price the again you can see that the Hallmark is that it mark to market really
1638
1639 334
1640 01:06:52,380 ~-~-> 01:07:01,980
1641 didn't do much at all it just consolidate when sideways. Now I want to take you
1642 back over to forex because I want to show you what transpired as a result of
1643
1644 335
1645 01:07:01,980 ~-~-> 01:07:14,460
1646 that euro dollar we outlined here's that run above the equal highs though daily
1647 high it runs for the liquidity not the daily high it's it sells off now. Think
1648
1649 336
1650 01:07:14,940 ~-~-> 01:07:24,930
1651 what did I just outline in the beginning this video with the cryptocurrencies
1652 bearish ICT breakers? Isn't that what's actually occurring here? It's breaking
1653
1654 337
1655 01:07:25,020 ~-~-> 01:07:34,530
1656 the short holders with their protective stops right above this retail Candyland
1657 equal highs they are so telling in the marketplace. It's so obvious you can't
1658
1659 338
1660 01:07:34,530 ~-~-> 01:07:47,220
1661 hide it. So what we do is just run above there's equal highs, or I goes right to
1662 the down close candles. Oh, what is that? Right in here? Let's zoom in. tell you
1663
1664 339
1665 01:07:47,220 ~-~-> 01:08:06,330
1666 I wish I was this fluid with trading view like a noob. Alright, right there. So
1667 here we have the down close candles right before the run up. So this is an ICT
1668
1669 340
1670 01:08:06,330 ~-~-> 01:08:14,730
1671 bearish breaker and how we use that as we wait for price to trade down below,
1672 which it does right here on this candle, wait for to trade back up to it and
1673
1674 341
1675 01:08:14,730 ~-~-> 01:08:21,300
1676 start watching to see if there's distribution when price comes right back up to
1677 the bottom of it. It's it starts us off a little bit. But the overall context
1678
1679 342
1680 01:08:21,300 ~-~-> 01:08:29,490
1681 has not changed. Where is the market most likely going to reach for it? Well,
1682 what do you see on the left hand on this chart? The opposite of this right here.
1683
1684 343
1685 01:08:30,270 ~-~-> 01:08:41,850
1686 Okay. And that's the 120 level. Now, it could go to that level. But right above
1687 120 would be what 120 20. So the institutional level I would be aiming for would
1688
1689 344
1690 01:08:41,850 ~-~-> 01:08:49,080
1691 be 120 20, which is right in here, which is what I was aiming for at the non
1692 farm payroll, you hear that in the video. And right there I tweeted the chart,
1693
1694 345
1695 01:08:49,770 ~-~-> 01:08:58,710
1696 as it happened as it slammed right into 2020. As I always do like a sniper, I'm
1697 hitting it as I see the levels I call for when it hits it, I'm screencasting at
1698
1699 346
1700 01:08:58,710 ~-~-> 01:09:05,040
1701 the very moment it does it and immediately tweeting it, I'm not doing it five
1702 hours later, I'm not doing it 60 minutes later where it can be doctored up,
1703
1704 347
1705 01:09:05,370 ~-~-> 01:09:13,890
1706 everything is done at the moment where no time can be used to manipulate
1707 Photoshop or none of those things. Okay, everything is exactly as it happens
1708
1709 348
1710 01:09:13,890 ~-~-> 01:09:25,200
1711 when it happens. Once it hits that 120 20 level, we get the run back up into the
1712 bearish breaker here. Then we have the weekend. We have Sunday's opening and we
1713
1714 349
1715 01:09:25,200 ~-~-> 01:09:33,600
1716 have a gap. So it comes back up, fills in the gap runs the buy stuffs that would
1717 be on any short holders. Hello. If they're short, where's their stock gonna be
1718
1719 350
1720 01:09:33,600 ~-~-> 01:09:43,050
1721 right here? That's what you see right here. Bang it hits it inside the breaker.
1722 What's it Dylan it's gonna sell off. There you go. And ultimately, that's where
1723
1724 351
1725 01:09:43,050 ~-~-> 01:09:54,630
1726 we're at. So it runs all these equal lows down here and even runs your liquidity
1727 resting rate below this low as well. Okay. So, again, I said that if you see not
1728
1729 352
1730 01:09:54,660 ~-~-> 01:10:02,520
1731 on payroll Friday, runs an area like this. What it does is it maintains acts
1732 like a Judas swing for the month. It'll give you the initial run here and give
1733
1734 353
1735 01:10:02,520 ~-~-> 01:10:11,460
1736 you a nice little price swing, go the other direction and here you go. You got
1737 an opportunity to see approximately 100 pips or so. So a little bit more than
1738
1739 354
1740 01:10:11,460 ~-~-> 01:10:21,330
1741 100 pips all outlined before the fact so you seen it. Now try to dismiss it.
1742 Hopefully you found this video insightful and entertaining or at the very least,
1743
1744 355
1745 01:10:21,840 ~-~-> 01:10:26,010
1746 enough to piss you off. And until next time, I wish you good luck and good