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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2021-06-10 10:05
From version 1.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
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To version 2.1
edited by Drunk Monkey
on 2021-06-10 10:05
Change comment: There is no comment for this version

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1 -1
2 -00:00:11,040 ~-~-> 00:00:14,130
3 -ICT: Okay, folks, this is the volume number six in a
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2 +|1 |00:00:11,040 ~-~-> 00:00:19,350 |ICT: Okay, folks, this is the volume number six in a continuing series of 20 |videos from the inner circle traders, optimal trade entry pattern recognition
3 +|2 |00:00:19,350 ~-~-> 00:00:29,010 |series. Yes, that's a mouthful. So looking at the daily chart of crude oil, we're gonna take a step outside of forex again and look at a commodity market.
4 +|3 |00:00:29,040 ~-~-> 00:00:39,600 |This is a widely traded asset. And if you look at what we have here on the daily chart, I want to pose a question to you. And I want you to think about what
5 +|4 |00:00:39,600 ~-~-> 00:00:54,390 |would be the most likely directional run above this candles high or below this candles low based on what you see here. This pattern here is pretty popular in
6 +|5 |00:00:54,390 ~-~-> 00:01:04,350 |the retail universe, they like to see these doji candles, okay, or PIN bars. And they naturally assume that that's going to create a top in the marketplace and
7 +|6 |00:01:04,350 ~-~-> 00:01:15,690 |then it should go lower. I love trading against this pattern here. So one of the things if you are a collector of of ICT, bullet point wisdom, if you look at the
8 +|7 |00:01:15,690 ~-~-> 00:01:26,520 |dojis. Okay, or PIN bars, I like to see those purged, I like to see them run above that. And if you look at what has happened so far, I mean, we've been
9 +|8 |00:01:26,520 ~-~-> 00:01:37,590 |running up correcting since it crashed in terms of the oil market. And if you look at this candle, which is yesterday's daily range, is it more likely to
10 +|9 |00:01:37,590 ~-~-> 00:01:49,530 |break below and trade lower or trade higher? My argument would be it would likely run this candles high, not just this candles high. But this candle tie.
11 +|10 |00:01:49,680 ~-~-> 00:01:59,790 |Because there's a lot of sentiment built into the crude oil market based on this pseudo pinbar or doji or whatever they want to classify Steve Nielsen's
12 +|11 |00:02:00,060 ~-~-> 00:02:10,530 |patterns, I'm not here to try to kick dirt in his face, but there just simply isn't enough to warrant a financial decision based on some willy nilly pattern
13 +|12 |00:02:10,980 ~-~-> 00:02:19,710 |in a candlestick formation. Okay, so there has to be online narrative and the narrative is everyone's bearish crude oil right now. So any retail idea that
14 +|13 |00:02:19,710 ~-~-> 00:02:29,130 |would paint the sentiment as bearish or maybe it's likely to go lower, they're just going to move on that. So it's not just limited to running this candles
15 +|14 |00:02:29,130 ~-~-> 00:02:42,060 |high. And high comes in at 26 point 45. So that's a near term objective. But we really be interested in seeing the high on this candle here at 2674. Okay, so
16 +|15 |00:02:42,060 ~-~-> 00:02:51,270 |2674 very, very likely scenario to make a run to that now doesn't mean the very next day or the 14th, which is the time of this recording, that we would run
17 +|16 |00:02:51,270 ~-~-> 00:03:00,780 |through this high, it would just be a drop in liquidity, okay. And onwards, a means of determining bias. Okay, I get a lot of questions from people that are
18 +|17 |00:03:00,780 ~-~-> 00:03:10,020 |in my mentorship just starting out, or outside of mentorship, they always ask me in the email, can you teach me how to determine the bias because if I could
19 +|18 |00:03:10,020 ~-~-> 00:03:20,400 |learn how to do the bias, I could trade profitably. And I would argue that's probably not true. Because you have placed so much emphasis on whether or not
20 +|19 |00:03:20,400 ~-~-> 00:03:29,640 |you can be right or wrong on a daily bias, the assumption will be led to you trying to day trade every single day. And while you may be profitable, few times
21 +|20 |00:03:29,640 ~-~-> 00:03:38,880 |a week, there's few times if you aren't, you'll go into revenge mode. And you'll just parlay your losses into larger losses. Alright, here is our five minute
22 +|21 |00:03:38,880 ~-~-> 00:03:50,730 |chart on accrual June delivery contract for 2020. And we're gonna put a little bit of lipstick on this. And we have the previous day's high here, the daily
23 +|22 |00:03:50,730 ~-~-> 00:03:59,700 |delineations. So this is the 14th day of this recording. You can see that we did run previous day's high here, but it was done in a very shallow capacity. So
24 +|23 |00:03:59,700 ~-~-> 00:04:08,160 |we're likely to see if we get a retracement down into New York session which you can start to see the beginning of the annotation of my chart here. I do want to
25 +|24 |00:04:08,160 ~-~-> 00:04:37,050 |put on the 2674 level. And we'll just make that a black level just to delineate what I'm referring to. Alright, so again, back on this chart here, this pin bar
26 +|25 |00:04:37,050 ~-~-> 00:04:54,360 |if you want to call it that retail idea is 2674 for the high and that's the level I have here 2674 we trade up into 2675. So we've got one point into that
27 +|26 |00:04:55,050 ~-~-> 00:04:56,430 |and then we rejected that
28 +|27 |00:04:58,440 ~-~-> 00:05:08,460 |liquidity would rest about here. And likely run a deeper run above the previous day's high. So that's what we're looking for. But the black line is specifically
29 +|28 |00:05:08,460 ~-~-> 00:05:21,600 |related to that daily pin bar or doji candle that would be deemed bearish from a retail level trader. Alright, and let's take our fib and add it to the New York
30 +|29 |00:05:21,600 ~-~-> 00:05:31,530 |session. Alright, so there's our fib and the low here to the high here, it retraces down into optimal trade entry 62% retracement level we're going to use
31 +|30 |00:05:31,860 ~-~-> 00:05:46,650 |as our entry 25 point 90 would be our entry. And to start would have to be below below here. So we'll use 68 to 68 and 90, it's 32 points are about $320 per
32 +|31 |00:05:46,650 ~-~-> 00:05:58,740 |contract risk and we will be reaching for previous day's high initially it does that here. And then we will be looking for one standard deviation up to 26.75.
33 +|32 |00:05:59,130 ~-~-> 00:06:10,290 |And if we get to 27.28, we would completely collapse the trade and being okay with taking that as our daily objective. And we can see here as the market runs
34 +|33 |00:06:10,980 ~-~-> 00:06:20,970 |forward. We do get our second standard deviation and we will be out there does run a little bit more but I'm not teaching you swing trading. I'm not teaching
35 +|34 |00:06:20,970 ~-~-> 00:06:29,520 |you short term trading. I'm teaching you a bread and butter approach to going into looking for daily setups using specific criteria aiming for previous day's
36 +|35 |00:06:29,520 ~-~-> 00:06:37,290 |highs or lows and using the new york session as your catalyst to do so. Hopefully you found this insightful until next time, I wish you good luck and
37 +|36 |00:06:37,290 ~-~-> 00:06:37,800 |good trading
4 4  
5 -2
6 -00:00:14,130 ~-~-> 00:00:16,800
7 -continuing series of 20 videos from the inner circle
8 -
9 -3
10 -00:00:16,800 ~-~-> 00:00:19,830
11 -traders, optimal trade entry pattern recognition series.
12 -
13 -4
14 -00:00:20,340 ~-~-> 00:00:24,000
15 -Yes, that's a mouthful. So looking at the daily chart of
16 -
17 -5
18 -00:00:24,000 ~-~-> 00:00:27,570
19 -crude oil, you can take a step outside of forex again and
20 -
21 -6
22 -00:00:27,570 ~-~-> 00:00:31,740
23 -look at a commodity market. This is a widely traded asset.
24 -
25 -7
26 -00:00:31,830 ~-~-> 00:00:35,520
27 -And if you look at what we have here on the daily chart, I'm
28 -
29 -8
30 -00:00:35,520 ~-~-> 00:00:38,430
31 -going to pose a question to you and I want you to think
32 -
33 -9
34 -00:00:38,430 ~-~-> 00:00:43,740
35 -about what would be the most likely directional run above
36 -
37 -10
38 -00:00:43,800 ~-~-> 00:00:49,080
39 -this candles high or below this candles low based on what
40 -
41 -11
42 -00:00:49,080 ~-~-> 00:00:54,450
43 -you see here. This pattern here is pretty popular in the
44 -
45 -12
46 -00:00:54,450 ~-~-> 00:00:58,770
47 -retail universe. They like to see these doji candles, okay
48 -
49 -13
50 -00:00:58,800 ~-~-> 00:01:02,940
51 -or PIN bars. They naturally assume that that's going to
52 -
53 -14
54 -00:01:02,940 ~-~-> 00:01:05,520
55 -create a top in the marketplace and then it should go lower.
56 -
57 -15
58 -00:01:06,240 ~-~-> 00:01:09,570
59 -I love trading against this pattern here. So one of the
60 -
61 -16
62 -00:01:09,570 ~-~-> 00:01:14,130
63 -things if you are a collector of of ICT bullet point wisdom,
64 -
65 -17
66 -00:01:14,550 ~-~-> 00:01:20,160
67 -if you look at the dojis. Okay, or PIN bars, I'd like to see
68 -
69 -18
70 -00:01:20,160 ~-~-> 00:01:24,420
71 -those purged. I'd like to see them run above that. And if
72 -
73 -19
74 -00:01:24,420 ~-~-> 00:01:26,490
75 -you look at what has happened so far, I mean, we've been
76 -
77 -20
78 -00:01:26,490 ~-~-> 00:01:30,390
79 -running up correcting since it crashed in terms of the oil
80 -
81 -21
82 -00:01:30,390 ~-~-> 00:01:35,250
83 -market. And if you look at this candle, which is yesterday's
84 -
85 -22
86 -00:01:35,250 ~-~-> 00:01:39,090
87 -daily range, is it more likely to break below and trade
88 -
89 -23
90 -00:01:39,090 ~-~-> 00:01:43,050
91 -lower or trade higher? My argument would be it would likely
92 -
93 -24
94 -00:01:43,050 ~-~-> 00:01:48,930
95 -run this candles high, not just this candles high. But this
96 -
97 -25
98 -00:01:48,930 ~-~-> 00:01:51,960
99 -candle tie, because there's a lot of sentiment built into
100 -
101 -26
102 -00:01:51,960 ~-~-> 00:01:57,360
103 -the crude oil market based on this pseudo pinbar or doji or
104 -
105 -27
106 -00:01:57,420 ~-~-> 00:02:01,140
107 -whatever they want to classify Steve Nielsen's patterns. I'm
108 -
109 -28
110 -00:02:01,140 ~-~-> 00:02:03,600
111 -not here to try to kick dirt in his face, but there just
112 -
113 -29
114 -00:02:03,600 ~-~-> 00:02:09,060
115 -simply isn't enough to warrant a financial decision based on
116 -
117 -30
118 -00:02:09,060 ~-~-> 00:02:12,810
119 -some willy nilly pattern in a candlestick formation. Okay,
120 -
121 -31
122 -00:02:12,810 ~-~-> 00:02:15,150
123 -so there has to be an underlying narrative and the narrative
124 -
125 -32
126 -00:02:15,150 ~-~-> 00:02:19,080
127 -is everyone's bearish crude oil right now. So any retail
128 -
129 -33
130 -00:02:19,080 ~-~-> 00:02:22,770
131 -idea that would paint the sentiment as bearish or maybe it's
132 -
133 -34
134 -00:02:22,770 ~-~-> 00:02:26,700
135 -likely to go lower. They're just going to move on that. So
136 -
137 -35
138 -00:02:26,730 ~-~-> 00:02:30,330
139 -it's not just limited to running this candles high. And high
140 -
141 -36
142 -00:02:30,330 ~-~-> 00:02:34,950
143 -comes in at 26 point 45. So that's a near term objective,
144 -
145 -37
146 -00:02:34,950 ~-~-> 00:02:38,070
147 -but we're really interested in seeing the high on this
148 -
149 -38
150 -00:02:38,070 ~-~-> 00:02:44,940
151 -candle here at 2674. Okay, so 2674 very, very likely
152 -
153 -39
154 -00:02:44,940 ~-~-> 00:02:47,340
155 -scenario to make a run to that now, it doesn't mean the very
156 -
157 -40
158 -00:02:47,340 ~-~-> 00:02:49,530
159 -next day or the 14th, which is the time of this recording
160 -
161 -41
162 -00:02:50,280 ~-~-> 00:02:53,130
163 -that we would run through this high it would just be a drop
164 -
165 -42
166 -00:02:53,130 ~-~-> 00:02:58,080
167 -in liquidity, okay. And onwards means of determining bias.
168 -
169 -43
170 -00:02:58,290 ~-~-> 00:03:01,050
171 -Okay, I get a lot of questions. from people that are in my
172 -
173 -44
174 -00:03:01,050 ~-~-> 00:03:04,380
175 -mentorship just starting out, or outside the mentorship,
176 -
177 -45
178 -00:03:04,440 ~-~-> 00:03:08,190
179 -they always asked me in the email, can you teach me how to
180 -
181 -46
182 -00:03:08,190 ~-~-> 00:03:10,650
183 -determine the bias because if I could learn how to do the
184 -
185 -47
186 -00:03:10,650 ~-~-> 00:03:14,640
187 -bias, I could trade profitably. And I would argue that's
188 -
189 -48
190 -00:03:14,640 ~-~-> 00:03:19,080
191 -probably not true. Because you have placed so much emphasis
192 -
193 -49
194 -00:03:19,110 ~-~-> 00:03:23,100
195 -on whether or not you can be right or wrong on a daily bias,
196 -
197 -50
198 -00:03:23,100 ~-~-> 00:03:26,310
199 -the assumption will be led to you trying to day trade every
200 -
201 -51
202 -00:03:26,310 ~-~-> 00:03:29,670
203 -single day. And while you may be profitable, few times a
204 -
205 -52
206 -00:03:29,670 ~-~-> 00:03:32,730
207 -week, there's few times that you aren't, you'll go into
208 -
209 -53
210 -00:03:32,730 ~-~-> 00:03:36,300
211 -revenge mode, and you'll just parlay your losses into larger
212 -
213 -54
214 -00:03:36,300 ~-~-> 00:03:39,780
215 -losses. Alright, here is our five minute chart on the crude
216 -
217 -55
218 -00:03:39,780 ~-~-> 00:03:45,060
219 -oil, June delivery contract for 2020. And we're going to put
220 -
221 -56
222 -00:03:45,060 ~-~-> 00:03:47,880
223 -a little bit of lipstick on this. And we have the previous
224 -
225 -57
226 -00:03:47,880 ~-~-> 00:03:53,040
227 -day's high here, the daily delineations. So this is the 14th
228 -
229 -58
230 -00:03:53,070 ~-~-> 00:03:56,010
231 -the day of this recording. You can see that we did run
232 -
233 -59
234 -00:03:56,040 ~-~-> 00:03:58,890
235 -previous day's high here but it was done in a very shallow
236 -
237 -60
238 -00:03:58,890 ~-~-> 00:04:02,070
239 -capacity. So we're learning To see if we get a retracement
240 -
241 -61
242 -00:04:02,070 ~-~-> 00:04:05,040
243 -down into New York session which you can start to see the
244 -
245 -62
246 -00:04:05,040 ~-~-> 00:04:08,580
247 -beginning of the annotation my chart here, I do want to put
248 -
249 -63
250 -00:04:08,940 ~-~-> 00:04:26,400
251 -on the 2674 level. And we'll just make that a black level
252 -
253 -64
254 -00:04:26,400 ~-~-> 00:04:32,760
255 -just to delineate what I'm referring to. Alright, so again,
256 -
257 -65
258 -00:04:33,510 ~-~-> 00:04:37,710
259 -back on this chart here, this pinbar if you want to call it
260 -
261 -66
262 -00:04:37,710 ~-~-> 00:04:44,730
263 -that retail idea is 2674 for the high and that's the level I
264 -
265 -67
266 -00:04:44,730 ~-~-> 00:04:53,580
267 -have here 2674 we trade up into 2675. So we went one point
268 -
269 -68
270 -00:04:53,580 ~-~-> 00:04:56,430
271 -into that, and then we rejected that
272 -
273 -69
274 -00:04:58,440 ~-~-> 00:05:02,460
275 -liquidity would rest above here. And likely run a deeper run
276 -
277 -70
278 -00:05:02,520 ~-~-> 00:05:04,920
279 -above the previous day's high. So that's what we're looking
280 -
281 -71
282 -00:05:04,920 ~-~-> 00:05:09,720
283 -for. But the black line is specifically related to that
284 -
285 -72
286 -00:05:09,720 ~-~-> 00:05:15,090
287 -daily pinbar or doji candle that would be deemed bearish
288 -
289 -73
290 -00:05:15,090 ~-~-> 00:05:18,990
291 -from a retail level trader. All right, and let's take our
292 -
293 -74
294 -00:05:18,990 ~-~-> 00:05:22,770
295 -fib and add it to the New York session. Alright, so there's
296 -
297 -75
298 -00:05:22,770 ~-~-> 00:05:27,750
299 -our fib and the low here to the high here, it retraces down
300 -
301 -76
302 -00:05:27,750 ~-~-> 00:05:31,050
303 -into optimal trade entry 62% retracement level we're going
304 -
305 -77
306 -00:05:31,050 ~-~-> 00:05:37,290
307 -to use as our entry 25 point 90 would be our entry and to
308 -
309 -78
310 -00:05:37,290 ~-~-> 00:05:41,730
311 -start would have to be below below here. So we'll use 68 to
312 -
313 -79
314 -00:05:41,730 ~-~-> 00:05:47,700
315 -68 and 90, that's 32 points are about $320 per contract risk
316 -
317 -80
318 -00:05:48,210 ~-~-> 00:05:51,180
319 -and we will be reaching for previous day's high initially it
320 -
321 -81
322 -00:05:51,180 ~-~-> 00:05:54,660
323 -does that here. And then we will be looking for one standard
324 -
325 -82
326 -00:05:54,660 ~-~-> 00:06:02,550
327 -deviation up to 26.75. And if we get to 20 7.28 we would
328 -
329 -83
330 -00:06:02,550 ~-~-> 00:06:05,520
331 -completely collapse the trade and being okay with taking
332 -
333 -84
334 -00:06:05,520 ~-~-> 00:06:09,510
335 -that as our daily objective. And you can see here as the
336 -
337 -85
338 -00:06:09,510 ~-~-> 00:06:15,060
339 -market runs forward, we do get our second standard deviation
340 -
341 -86
342 -00:06:15,060 ~-~-> 00:06:19,080
343 -and we will be out there does run a little bit more, but I'm
344 -
345 -87
346 -00:06:19,080 ~-~-> 00:06:21,330
347 -not teaching you swing trading. I'm not teaching you short
348 -
349 -88
350 -00:06:21,330 ~-~-> 00:06:24,090
351 -term trading. I'm teaching you a bread and butter approach
352 -
353 -89
354 -00:06:24,090 ~-~-> 00:06:27,810
355 -to going into looking for daily setups using specific
356 -
357 -90
358 -00:06:27,810 ~-~-> 00:06:32,190
359 -criteria aiming for previous day's highs or lows and using
360 -
361 -91
362 -00:06:32,190 ~-~-> 00:06:35,040
363 -the new york session as your catalyst to do so. Hopefully
364 -
365 -92
366 -00:06:35,040 ~-~-> 00:06:36,780
367 -you found this insightful until next time, I wish you good
368 -
369 -93
370 -00:06:36,780 ~-~-> 00:06:37,800
371 -luck and good trading.