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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-11-20 16:40
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Drunk Monkey 1.1 1 1
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3 ICT: Okay, guys, welcome back, we are in volume three of the
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7 positioning concepts video series is the last in the series.
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11 And the first series volume, we talked about weekly order
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15 flow. And the second volume, we talked about weekly order
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19 blocks. And now to bring this series to a conclusion, we're
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23 actually looking at the concept of trading inside the range.
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27 Okay? And it's a concept that I used to teach my kids how to
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31 trade with it. And I always try to find a way to
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35 conceptualize what it is that I see in the marketplace. And
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39 because I don't have another source, readily available, so I
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43 can just take them to and say, Okay, this is what it is that
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47 I'm referring to. I kind of dubbed it as an L seven range.
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51 Okay, and l seven. kind of silly. sounding but what is it
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55 exactly? Well, whenever you're looking at a price chart, and
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59 I have purposely picked the US swissy pair, and it's because
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63 I believe this is the king of volatility in terms of pairs.
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67 If you were to look at any one of these reaction high in
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71 reaction low, this is a daily chart of the swissy. I'm going
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75 to draw your attention to a few things and
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79 I want to show you that if directional premise is a
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83 stumbling block for you, it need not be because it is not
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87 necessary for you to have a directional premise at 100% of
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91 the time. Okay? If you're comfortable trading inside of
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95 dealing ranges, okay? It's quite lucrative actually, if you
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99 understand what it is specifically you're doing when you
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103 trade inside of a predetermine range. And what do I mean by
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107 that? Well, the reason why I dubbed this as the L seven,
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111 inside the range concept is because if we look at, say, for
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115 instance, this range here, okay, this low to this high, and
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119 we'll define it by this. And this is a rather simple
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123 concept. But it's absolutely amazing if you apply it in your
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127 trading. And actually, if you start looking at it as a
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131 training, exercise, trade within a predefined range, because
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135 young Our understanding is is obviously the markets are 70%
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139 of the time in a trading range. Now, the definition Have
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143 that okay, was one of the longest stumbling blocks for me as
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147 a trader when I was first developing, because I always
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151 misunderstood what they were saying. Like, I assumed this
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155 was the trading range here, okay? But I looked at this and
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159 said, Okay, well, this is a trading range, okay? And look
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163 how much time it's spent out there and a rally up here and
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167 rally up here. To me, it seems like it's always trending and
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171 spent very little time inside of a trading range. It wasn't
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175 until I understood the natural ebb and flow in the
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179 marketplace, where it became quickly apparent as to what
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183 that statement means when markets are 70% of the time inside
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187 of a trading range. We have a high here and a low here that
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191 the range is defined by this low and this high, the
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195 likelihood of price moving out and continuingly to move
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199 higher is rather low. Okay, in other words you have the way
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203 I interpret it and you can go with this if you want. I view
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207 this as we have a 70% odds that this market is going to have
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211 a very difficult time breaking out to run to new highs. Now
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215 it could stab through. The way I interpret that is that as
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219 the market begins to move outside of that range, hi. That
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223 statement indicates that it has a 70% chance of failure to
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227 move to new highs and continuing higher. Okay, yes, we see a
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231 violation on a few candles on the daily chart where it did
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235 in fact, sweep above that range high back here. But
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239 ultimately, what did it do? It returned back inside of the
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243 Define range of this low and this high back here. Okay, so
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247 how can we use this information? And what does it mean? You
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251 To us as a trader, well, as price trades down and makes a
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255 low here, I'll ask you this. What do you think the least?
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259 least road of resistance, okay? Is it to go higher, or you
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263 could go lower? Because we've already went lower than this
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267 low here. We went lower than this low here. We took out this
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271 high with a very small minor move here, but we've recently
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275 started to move higher. If you start looking at this like a
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279 letter L, okay, in envision a letter L here. We're trading
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283 down here at these levels here. Where is the point of
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287 reference for this range? If we're at the lows here, it's up
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291 here. Okay, so now how do we incorporate that? Well, at this
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295 old high, if we start looking At the order blocks that
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299 represent the selling that caused the market to drop. Well,
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303 we'll look at a few of them. We have, this is a Sunday. So
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307 I'm going to avoid that. We're going to say this is the
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311 first bullish candle prior that is Sunday here.
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315 And if we're down here, we could look to see if price would
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319 rally back up to that price point. Now, yes, invariably, we
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323 could probably see it retest this high, but what do we what
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327 do we already state that markets have a 70% likelihood of
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331 staying inside of predetermine ranges. So if we could find a
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335 long down in here, we could look for this market to move
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339 higher up into this level here. Now, also note that we have
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343 this short term range from this high. And all I did was note
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347 the bullish candle prior to drop down in this low here. So
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351 this is a pre determined range as well, if we were long
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355 here, we could look for initial objectives in here and if
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359 this is taken out, reasonably expect this order block here
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363 to be retested. And if it continues to country even higher,
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367 we could retest this high here and maybe look to see some
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371 kind of sweeping event like we see many times in my videos
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375 or in commentary. So as the market also traded in this range
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379 with this high here, in this low, the range was this high
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383 and this low. If we could find a long in here, we could
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387 trade inside the range and look for this bullish I'm sorry
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391 bearish rather, this bear ICT order block to be retested,
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395 okay, we entered into that same area had a small little
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399 turtle soup, which is a false break above an old high and
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403 then rejection. Okay, but I'm not trying to teach that
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407 pattern here. So I probably shouldn't have said that. So it
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411 is what it is. But any longer here, your objective would be
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415 to look forward to the counter order block that saw price
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419 drop down, okay, we we try to trade back up into it, this
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423 would be a known level of institutional selling. Okay. And
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427 you can see that does in fact, come under way, the market
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431 has dropped down precipitously. We're using the L concept in
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435 here of this con is dis particular approach, okay. It's
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439 probably over simplification, okay. But to me this makes
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443 sense and helps you my kids learn this as I teach it to
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447 them. So we have a point where we are now and where do we go
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451 from here? Well, The range pi is here. So that would form a
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455 letter L. Okay. And it probably sounds like Sesame Street to
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459 people in the States. But it really is a really simple
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463 approach. Now, how do we approach a seven range? Okay? Or
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467 the concept? How does the seven come into play? Well, if you
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471 look at and we get some of these lines off here, because
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475 it's going to get in my way here, price at these levels,
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479 okay? And we're not going to reference anything over here.
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483 For now we're just going to look at where we're at in terms
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487 of the dealing ranges and such. We have this high here and
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491 you see price runoff back into the order block here. And
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495 when we start to sell off, if we were able to see something
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499 bearish back here, okay, the point of reference is what,
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503 here's the area where we're at the likelihood of us
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507 continuously breaking higher, okay? Because this was the
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511 previous high price rally out of that. Okay, now it's
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515 several hundred pips because it is a daily chart. But look
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519 what happened it was unable to stay above this, this range
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523 high, so it pulled back inside of the range to run below
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527 this old low, but more importantly, okay, it's this range
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531 low here and the new high that formed.
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535 So we have dealing ranges this high this low. So if you're
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539 up here hunting sell signals. Okay, where's the range? Well
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543 we have several ranges to deal with. So that's the question
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547 and why I always ask, Where are we inside the dealing? What
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551 what dealing range are we within? We have these highs. We
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555 have a reaction low here. So that's a point of reference.
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559 Okay, this is one point of reference This is another point
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563 of reference. Another point of reference. And another point
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567 of reference, okay, so these are all ranges that price works
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571 within while trading, okay? This low here, price bounced off
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575 this is pretty, pretty nice. Obviously price came down into
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579 this low here swept up just a little bit and then rallied
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583 even more. Okay? price when we made this range here
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587 we have this high in this low, okay, where's the path of
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591 least resistance, okay? It's going to be on the upside
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595 because it's been dropping Lower, lower, lower, lower,
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599 lower, lower, lower. And now the only thing that we got to
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603 consider is where the stops are and that's where the price
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607 is going to seek it's going to seek liquidity, because
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611 everything's been going lower. So eventually, there's going
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615 to be In a low and selling so what will happen is the market
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619 will reach up and seek out liquidity above the short term
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623 highs and see if there's any stops. But still notice even as
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627 aggressive as this bounce was and rally higher, whereas it
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631 run back to previous order block. Okay, this bullish candle
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635 prior to drop lower if you want to use this candle as well
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639 you're still within that same range, okay? here Okay, so
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643 inside this range, we've come all the way back up to here.
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647 Okay, so now again, while price is right here is it likely
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651 to continue and break through this high in trade onto the
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655 new highs. Odds tell us statistically that 70% of the time,
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659 price will stay inside of a range so as price rallies on up
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663 here aggressively. Okay. When we start moving back into
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667 these dual bearish order blocks, it's reasonable to expect
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671 this market to try to look for sell scenarios or sell
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675 patterns. Okay? Now, Where's it? Where's the range at this
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679 point? Because we have this high here
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683 and this low where it came from originally down here. So the
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687 order block that resides down here is this one.
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691 Okay, so if we sell up in here, we could really expect it to
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695 come back down in this area. Okay, and maybe retest this
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699 low, but again, we have a 70% odds that it's going to stay
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703 within this range. Okay, price comes down. Does it break
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707 this low? No. What does it do it rallies once more. Okay.
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711 How Why is it rallying up here? We have high here. We have
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715 short term high here. Okay, this is a this is a bearish
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719 order block. Trade back into this is a bearish order block
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723 that it trades back into okay the range is this short term
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727 high to this short term low notice we did not classify it as
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731 this low because this is the this is the true range here
732
733 184
734 00:15:13,860 ~-~-> 00:15:16,590
735 this is the range that has not been violated this high in
736
737 185
738 00:15:16,590 ~-~-> 00:15:26,520
739 this low so, as we have the short term high price moves from
740
741 186
742 00:15:26,520 ~-~-> 00:15:30,960
743 this point down does not break this low and rallies back up
744
745 187
746 00:15:30,990 ~-~-> 00:15:34,020
747 whereas rally up to above the short term highs taking out
748
749 188
750 00:15:34,020 ~-~-> 00:15:37,410
751 any liquidity is resting in the marketplace is short term
752
753 189
754 00:15:37,410 ~-~-> 00:15:40,410
755 high here and the short term high here. Okay both being
756
757 190
758 00:15:40,410 ~-~-> 00:15:43,590
759 order blocks that it does trade within and then what does it
760
761 191
762 00:15:43,590 ~-~-> 00:15:48,840
763 do it sells back off now. We do see price violate this low
764
765 192
766 00:15:48,990 ~-~-> 00:15:54,120
767 and the old reference point low here. Okay, it, it breaks
768
769 193
770 00:15:54,120 ~-~-> 00:15:59,610
771 below it. it sweeps back into the range here. Now what's
772
773 194
774 00:15:59,610 ~-~-> 00:16:05,520
775 going on? Here, we have a new range. We have this high here.
776
777 195
778 00:16:09,870 ~-~-> 00:16:16,080
779 And we have a new range low here. Okay, so we have this high
780
781 196
782 00:16:16,590 ~-~-> 00:16:21,510
783 to this low price rallies on up. And where's it go back to a
784
785 197
786 00:16:21,510 ~-~-> 00:16:25,230
787 previous bearish order block right here, this candle right
788
789 198
790 00:16:25,230 ~-~-> 00:16:28,620
791 there. draw that out in time you see it tag it right there.
792
793 199
794 00:16:30,390 ~-~-> 00:16:35,310
795 So now what are we saying here? what's what's the what's the
796
797 200
798 00:16:35,310 ~-~-> 00:16:38,670
799 premise behind this? Well if you understand where we are in
800
801 201
802 00:16:38,670 ~-~-> 00:16:44,880
803 terms of the present, trading range, you don't need a
804
805 202
806 00:16:44,910 ~-~-> 00:16:48,270
807 directional premise. Okay? You can trade very, very short
808
809 203
810 00:16:48,270 ~-~-> 00:16:51,600
811 term, either intraday or day trading or short term trading.
812
813 204
814 00:16:52,260 ~-~-> 00:16:58,230
815 Okay, with a premise in mind that is long as you know,
816
817 205
818 00:16:58,230 ~-~-> 00:17:04,470
819 you're not going to overstay your welcome Okay, you have the
820
821 206
822 00:17:04,470 ~-~-> 00:17:09,660
823 likelihood of taking short term, intraday scalps, short term
824
825 207
826 00:17:09,690 ~-~-> 00:17:15,540
827 intraday price swings and short term trading and capture a
828
829 208
830 00:17:15,540 ~-~-> 00:17:18,480
831 lot of these little little moves here. Now if you're very
832
833 209
834 00:17:18,510 ~-~-> 00:17:22,260
835 disciplined, you can do this over and over and over again,
836
837 210
838 00:17:22,560 ~-~-> 00:17:25,620
839 with a good pair like this. Like I said, the swissy is
840
841 211
842 00:17:25,620 ~-~-> 00:17:28,560
843 pretty volatile in this gives you a lot of opportunities to
844
845 212
846 00:17:28,560 ~-~-> 00:17:33,900
847 trade like this. I don't trade the swissy a lot. But if I do
848
849 213
850 00:17:33,900 ~-~-> 00:17:36,840
851 trade it, I trade it in this capacity because I don't feel
852
853 214
854 00:17:36,840 ~-~-> 00:17:40,410
855 that it's one of the pairs that I can trust because it's
856
857 215
858 00:17:40,410 ~-~-> 00:17:43,200
859 very, very volatile. It comes down a lot takes out lows hits
860
861 216
862 00:17:43,200 ~-~-> 00:17:48,210
863 a highs, and it's it's characteristic is very, very range
864
865 217
866 00:17:48,210 ~-~-> 00:17:52,830
867 bound. And you can trade a lot of setups with this with this
868
869 218
870 00:17:52,830 ~-~-> 00:17:58,020
871 pair. You have a bullish order block here. Okay, price dips
872
873 219
874 00:17:58,020 ~-~-> 00:18:01,860
875 down into rallies. Okay, and you can take profits in here.
876
877 220
878 00:18:02,010 ~-~-> 00:18:05,160
879 Yes evaluates and goes through it. Okay? But look at the
880
881 221
882 00:18:05,160 ~-~-> 00:18:08,400
883 profit potential. It's available by understanding where you
884
885 222
886 00:18:08,400 ~-~-> 00:18:15,870
887 are in the range. That's 280 pips catching up I like that.
888
889 223
890 00:18:18,510 ~-~-> 00:18:25,860
891 Just so you know, I'm not cherry picking. We have a dealing
892
893 224
894 00:18:25,860 ~-~-> 00:18:30,090
895 range low here and dealing range low on high here. Okay,
896
897 225
898 00:18:30,120 ~-~-> 00:18:33,330
899 price rallies back up to what the old order block right
900
901 226
902 00:18:33,330 ~-~-> 00:18:38,190
903 here. sells off. Where's it go down to this range high to
904
905 227
906 00:18:38,190 ~-~-> 00:18:42,390
907 this range low to the previous bullish order block right
908
909 228
910 00:18:42,390 ~-~-> 00:18:48,780
911 here. Okay? Don't buy take profits at old highs. Okay, sure
912
913 229
914 00:18:48,780 ~-~-> 00:18:52,170
915 you can hold on to higher prices, but there's no guarantee
916
917 230
918 00:18:52,170 ~-~-> 00:18:55,260
919 is going to do it. Remember we have a 70% chance that price
920
921 231
922 00:18:55,260 ~-~-> 00:18:58,620
923 will stay within a range. So you can take a large portion of
924
925 232
926 00:18:58,620 ~-~-> 00:19:02,550
927 your trade off maybe 80% 20% on these types of incidents,
928
929 233
930 00:19:02,580 ~-~-> 00:19:04,320
931 that's what we're talking about when we talk about taking
932
933 234
934 00:19:04,320 ~-~-> 00:19:08,520
935 partial portions of our trade off. You want to be doing it
936
937 235
938 00:19:08,520 ~-~-> 00:19:10,170
939 with a systematic approach to it,
940
941 236
942 00:19:10,230 ~-~-> 00:19:13,620
943 but a framework as to why you're doing it. Because as we
944
945 237
946 00:19:13,620 ~-~-> 00:19:15,360
947 trade up to here, there's no guarantee this is going to
948
949 238
950 00:19:15,360 ~-~-> 00:19:19,500
951 continue going up, it could deeply retrace, and you'll have
952
953 239
954 00:19:19,500 ~-~-> 00:19:22,440
955 to ride through all that. And many times, it could just
956
957 240
958 00:19:22,440 ~-~-> 00:19:25,110
959 continue to trade lower and blow out your stock. So it's
960
961 241
962 00:19:25,110 ~-~-> 00:19:30,450
963 it's very, it's nicer as a trader to take some profits as a
964
965 242
966 00:19:30,450 ~-~-> 00:19:33,660
967 logical place of resistance. Or we could see potentially a
968
969 243
970 00:19:33,660 ~-~-> 00:19:36,300
971 retracement where we don't want to ride through that. Okay,
972
973 244
974 00:19:36,300 ~-~-> 00:19:40,080
975 because if we're at the extreme of the range, we want to
976
977 245
978 00:19:40,650 ~-~-> 00:19:43,080
979 hopefully see this continuation, but there's no guarantee
980
981 246
982 00:19:43,080 ~-~-> 00:19:46,170
983 it's going to happen. So by having that understanding, we're
984
985 247
986 00:19:46,170 ~-~-> 00:19:51,870
987 trading with a 70% chance of, yes, this may hold us lower,
988
989 248
990 00:19:52,440 ~-~-> 00:19:57,420
991 but you also you're taking 100% likelihood of taking a large
992
993 249
994 00:19:57,420 ~-~-> 00:20:00,000
995 portion of your trade off. So let's say you took 80% off it
996
997 250
998 00:20:00,000 ~-~-> 00:20:02,880
999 This high from a low down here that you've went long on a
1000
1001 251
1002 00:20:02,910 ~-~-> 00:20:05,730
1003 previous order block, you're trading inside the range here,
1004
1005 252
1006 00:20:05,790 ~-~-> 00:20:09,480
1007 this is your high and this is your low. We know that 70% of
1008
1009 253
1010 00:20:09,480 ~-~-> 00:20:15,150
1011 the time, we're 70% odds that you are not going to see a
1012
1013 254
1014 00:20:15,150 ~-~-> 00:20:19,470
1015 higher breakout. That means take a larger portion your trade
1016
1017 255
1018 00:20:19,470 ~-~-> 00:20:22,260
1019 off. So let's say we took 80% off and long down here, leave
1020
1021 256
1022 00:20:22,260 ~-~-> 00:20:26,610
1023 20% on look at it does, you end up making more money on the
1024
1025 257
1026 00:20:26,610 ~-~-> 00:20:29,670
1027 20% remaining in the position than you did on your 80%
1028
1029 258
1030 00:20:29,670 ~-~-> 00:20:34,950
1031 taking it off from here to here. Okay. And you're keeping
1032
1033 259
1034 00:20:34,950 ~-~-> 00:20:37,980
1035 risk low you're minimizing risk and maximizing profit
1036
1037 260
1038 00:20:37,980 ~-~-> 00:20:41,940
1039 potential, okay. Now, we have another range here we have a
1040
1041 261
1042 00:20:41,940 ~-~-> 00:20:47,460
1043 low and a high to this high and this low order block is
1044
1045 262
1046 00:20:47,460 ~-~-> 00:20:51,780
1047 right here, dips down into it 70% likelihood that this range
1048
1049 263
1050 00:20:51,780 ~-~-> 00:20:56,160
1051 low will maintain and this range high will maintain. So what
1052
1053 264
1054 00:20:56,160 ~-~-> 00:20:59,910
1055 do we do? You can be a buyer here and taking profits here.
1056
1057 265
1058 00:21:02,190 ~-~-> 00:21:05,910
1059 If that's the case, and we buy right at the order block high
1060
1061 266
1062 00:21:06,570 ~-~-> 00:21:12,540
1063 as 343 pips made available, and taking out again 80% of the
1064
1065 267
1066 00:21:12,540 ~-~-> 00:21:15,030
1067 position right here leaving 20% on and look at it as it
1068
1069 268
1070 00:21:15,030 ~-~-> 00:21:20,820
1071 gives you a little bit more of a pump in that position. Now
1072
1073 269
1074 00:21:20,820 ~-~-> 00:21:25,080
1075 we have another dealing range, we have this low and this
1076
1077 270
1078 00:21:25,080 ~-~-> 00:21:32,550
1079 high, okay. Price comes down, and here is your bullish order
1080
1081 271
1082 00:21:32,550 ~-~-> 00:21:36,720
1083 block right in here. This right here would have amounted to
1084
1085 272
1086 00:21:36,720 ~-~-> 00:21:39,960
1087 a loss, okay, I want to give you opportunities where this
1088
1089 273
1090 00:21:40,260 ~-~-> 00:21:42,720
1091 would not work. Okay, I wanted to sit here and look at a
1092
1093 274
1094 00:21:42,720 ~-~-> 00:21:44,610
1095 chart and cherry pick everything in hindsight and say, Look
1096
1097 275
1098 00:21:44,610 ~-~-> 00:21:47,100
1099 how great I am. Look how great the tools are. But this is
1100
1101 276
1102 00:21:47,100 ~-~-> 00:21:52,200
1103 one where if you were trying to capitalize on this range
1104
1105 277
1106 00:21:52,200 ~-~-> 00:21:55,320
1107 phenomenon, it didn't work, but I'm gonna ask you a
1108
1109 278
1110 00:21:55,320 ~-~-> 00:22:00,570
1111 question. If you use your fibs in conjunction with This
1112
1113 279
1114 00:22:01,050 ~-~-> 00:22:06,180
1115 wouldn't this be below the 79% retracement level. So would
1116
1117 280
1118 00:22:06,180 ~-~-> 00:22:12,510
1119 this swing qualify up here it would but you didn't dip down
1120
1121 281
1122 00:22:12,510 ~-~-> 00:22:17,040
1123 in the order block far enough back here. Okay. So
1124
1125 282
1126 00:22:23,760 ~-~-> 00:22:28,290
1127 forgive me I can't remember if I went over this pattern here
1128
1129 283
1130 00:22:28,290 ~-~-> 00:22:32,910
1131 this is bearish or block here, but we have one price breaks
1132
1133 284
1134 00:22:32,910 ~-~-> 00:22:36,450
1135 back down below inside this dealing range high here and we
1136
1137 285
1138 00:22:36,450 ~-~-> 00:22:42,000
1139 violated this low here we have a new range low and this
1140
1141 286
1142 00:22:42,000 ~-~-> 00:22:46,200
1143 range high up here. But inside of this range we have this
1144
1145 287
1146 00:22:46,230 ~-~-> 00:22:51,450
1147 high, this high this high, this high, this high, this high.
1148
1149 288
1150 00:22:51,870 ~-~-> 00:22:56,070
1151 So each one of these are potential dealing ranges the way we
1152
1153 289
1154 00:22:56,070 ~-~-> 00:22:56,670
1155 use it
1156
1157 290
1158 00:23:05,640 ~-~-> 00:23:07,830
1159 And put them on the charts. You can see it.
1160
1161 291
1162 00:23:28,650 ~-~-> 00:23:32,700
1163 I'll leave this one alone. That's a Sunday I'm sure. Okay,
1164
1165 292
1166 00:23:33,210 ~-~-> 00:23:39,060
1167 so we have and this low down here, which on this user full
1168
1169 293
1170 00:23:39,060 ~-~-> 00:23:44,580
1171 horizontal for that. So we have this range, and we have this
1172
1173 294
1174 00:23:44,580 ~-~-> 00:23:49,980
1175 range. And we have this range, and we have the old high back
1176
1177 295
1178 00:23:49,980 ~-~-> 00:23:55,680
1179 here and the low here prior to this rally up. Let's
1180
1181 296
1182 00:23:55,770 ~-~-> 00:24:06,270
1183 incorporate our fib Okay, price retraces to well this this
1184
1185 297
1186 00:24:06,600 ~-~-> 00:24:09,900
1187 this level here absolutely means nothing to me. So I
1188
1189 298
1190 00:24:09,900 ~-~-> 00:24:14,700
1191 wouldn't I wouldn't look at this fib level as a means of
1192
1193 299
1194 00:24:14,700 ~-~-> 00:24:18,840
1195 interest I like 62 from this high here we still don't have
1196
1197 300
1198 00:24:18,840 ~-~-> 00:24:23,130
1199 anything from this high here we have nothing still. We have
1200
1201 301
1202 00:24:24,090 ~-~-> 00:24:28,080
1203 this high here and suddenly we have a sweet spot. Now what's
1204
1205 302
1206 00:24:28,080 ~-~-> 00:24:33,930
1207 nice about this one is we have old lows here. Actually, we
1208
1209 303
1210 00:24:33,930 ~-~-> 00:24:38,760
1211 have a nice fractal low that was broken to the downside and
1212
1213 304
1214 00:24:38,760 ~-~-> 00:24:42,510
1215 we came back and retested it. Okay, see how prices move back
1216
1217 305
1218 00:24:42,510 ~-~-> 00:24:47,280
1219 into this area here. See this low, lower low, higher low.
1220
1221 306
1222 00:24:47,460 ~-~-> 00:24:51,540
1223 Okay, so we have a fractal here. We broke through it, and
1224
1225 307
1226 00:24:51,540 ~-~-> 00:24:54,270
1227 then retested it in here. Okay, back in this area over here,
1228
1229 308
1230 00:24:54,720 ~-~-> 00:24:56,910
1231 but now look behind price.
1232
1233 309
1234 00:25:03,179 ~-~-> 00:25:10,859
1235 Do you see in this consolidation in here? Okay, what do you
1236
1237 310
1238 00:25:10,859 ~-~-> 00:25:12,149
1239 see? Where's the waterblock? At?
1240
1241 311
1242 00:25:20,490 ~-~-> 00:25:25,260
1243 see it right there. So inside this range, we've rallied back
1244
1245 312
1246 00:25:25,260 ~-~-> 00:25:28,140
1247 up, I would not. This is and this is where we're getting at
1248
1249 313
1250 00:25:28,140 ~-~-> 00:25:31,470
1251 with this, I would not be willing to assume new long
1252
1253 314
1254 00:25:31,470 ~-~-> 00:25:36,870
1255 positions, trading up against this bearish order block on a
1256
1257 315
1258 00:25:36,870 ~-~-> 00:25:40,860
1259 daily chart, and we're at the extreme of the range. Again,
1260
1261 316
1262 00:25:40,860 ~-~-> 00:25:43,410
1263 we're getting up to these levels here, and we bar this
1264
1265 317
1266 00:25:43,410 ~-~-> 00:25:48,780
1267 level. Here's that swing high. So dealing range highs here.
1268
1269 318
1270 00:25:49,320 ~-~-> 00:25:53,520
1271 We're off the lows here. We got a 70% likelihood This is
1272
1273 319
1274 00:25:53,520 ~-~-> 00:25:56,610
1275 going to maintain price. Okay, that's what statistics tell
1276
1277 320
1278 00:25:56,610 ~-~-> 00:26:01,290
1279 us. Price spends 70% of time inside of range. So as we get
1280
1281 321
1282 00:26:01,290 ~-~-> 00:26:03,840
1283 up into this level, look what we're doing, would you be
1284
1285 322
1286 00:26:03,840 ~-~-> 00:26:08,340
1287 willing to buy up here up against a bearish order block at
1288
1289 323
1290 00:26:08,340 ~-~-> 00:26:12,330
1291 the far extreme of a dealing range on a daily chart like
1292
1293 324
1294 00:26:12,330 ~-~-> 00:26:16,980
1295 this, okay, so inside this range, okay, we have very little
1296
1297 325
1298 00:26:17,280 ~-~-> 00:26:22,200
1299 to go by in terms of statistical odds. In fact, it's
1300
1301 326
1302 00:26:22,200 ~-~-> 00:26:25,530
1303 statistically against us, okay, the odds are that this is
1304
1305 327
1306 00:26:25,530 ~-~-> 00:26:31,470
1307 not likely to continue higher. Okay. And that's, that's the
1308
1309 328
1310 00:26:31,470 ~-~-> 00:26:37,020
1311 benefit of looking at where we are in a current range. Now,
1312
1313 329
1314 00:26:37,980 ~-~-> 00:26:41,580
1315 let's go back to this level over here. Okay, down in here we
1316
1317 330
1318 00:26:41,580 ~-~-> 00:26:49,920
1319 have a bullish order block. Okay, and very handsome. You can
1320
1321 331
1322 00:26:49,920 ~-~-> 00:26:52,470
1323 see how that was handled there. As price starts to break
1324
1325 332
1326 00:26:52,470 ~-~-> 00:26:58,530
1327 down. Notice how we got very, very, very close to it, but
1328
1329 333
1330 00:26:58,530 ~-~-> 00:27:03,390
1331 never violated it. Okay, so price stayed What? Inside the
1332
1333 334
1334 00:27:03,390 ~-~-> 00:27:09,990
1335 range. Price eventually comes down to that range, okay?
1336
1337 335
1338 00:27:10,590 ~-~-> 00:27:14,490
1339 breaks it a little bit. But look at it as it trades deep
1340
1341 336
1342 00:27:14,610 ~-~-> 00:27:21,420
1343 back into the range again, sweet below it again work so a
1344
1345 337
1346 00:27:21,420 ~-~-> 00:27:24,360
1347 couple times and then eventually moves outside of the range,
1348
1349 338
1350 00:27:24,720 ~-~-> 00:27:27,510
1351 but look how long it took to get outside of that range a
1352
1353 339
1354 00:27:27,510 ~-~-> 00:27:31,410
1355 very long time. Going back through all of these levels,
1356
1357 340
1358 00:27:31,440 ~-~-> 00:27:37,020
1359 okay, we can see many instances were trading by defining
1360
1361 341
1362 00:27:37,020 ~-~-> 00:27:39,780
1363 where we are in terms of the current trading range. You
1364
1365 342
1366 00:27:39,780 ~-~-> 00:27:44,070
1367 could trade counter swing trades, both directions, okay,
1368
1369 343
1370 00:27:44,100 ~-~-> 00:27:48,660
1371 like this level in here. Okay, you have a bearish order
1372
1373 344
1374 00:27:48,660 ~-~-> 00:27:51,150
1375 block here you have a bearish order block here
1376
1377 345
1378 00:27:58,620 ~-~-> 00:28:03,060
1379 and I apologize if This seems like a whole lot of just
1380
1381 346
1382 00:28:03,120 ~-~-> 00:28:05,610
1383 looking at a chart and grabbing the best positions. I
1384
1385 347
1386 00:28:05,610 ~-~-> 00:28:08,940
1387 promise you if you spend a week going through every pair
1388
1389 348
1390 00:28:08,940 ~-~-> 00:28:12,660
1391 that you'd like to trade and go through and look at highs
1392
1393 349
1394 00:28:12,660 ~-~-> 00:28:15,360
1395 and lows, okay old highs and lows and see where prices
1396
1397 350
1398 00:28:15,360 ~-~-> 00:28:18,840
1399 retraced and and all of the retraces back to the highs and
1400
1401 351
1402 00:28:18,840 ~-~-> 00:28:23,760
1403 lows. Okay, you'll see that there are absolutely beautiful
1404
1405 352
1406 00:28:23,760 ~-~-> 00:28:26,640
1407 trading opportunities where over and over and over again.
1408
1409 353
1410 00:28:27,030 ~-~-> 00:28:31,140
1411 You could be really finding a lot of times what many traders
1412
1413 354
1414 00:28:31,170 ~-~-> 00:28:35,640
1415 can't see on the chart. This low to this high really
1416
1417 355
1418 00:28:35,640 ~-~-> 00:28:38,640
1419 handsome opportunity again now once we get up here, what do
1420
1421 356
1422 00:28:38,640 ~-~-> 00:28:40,950
1423 we do? We can look for a bearish scenario if you're a
1424
1425 357
1426 00:28:40,950 ~-~-> 00:28:44,520
1427 harmonic trader. Do we look for bearish bats bears
1428
1429 358
1430 00:28:44,640 ~-~-> 00:28:49,230
1431 butterflies? bearish gartley up in here? bears turtle soups,
1432
1433 359
1434 00:28:49,620 ~-~-> 00:28:54,810
1435 bearish stochastics, Barrett's MACD divergence, you know,
1436
1437 360
1438 00:28:55,230 ~-~-> 00:28:58,380
1439 head and shoulders formations, all those types of patterns
1440
1441 361
1442 00:28:58,380 ~-~-> 00:29:02,430
1443 in this area here. Looking for what the retracement back
1444
1445 362
1446 00:29:02,430 ~-~-> 00:29:05,550
1447 into the dealing range here and this is your bullish order
1448
1449 363
1450 00:29:05,550 ~-~-> 00:29:09,930
1451 block here. And we would look to take a exit point and maybe
1452
1453 364
1454 00:29:09,930 ~-~-> 00:29:13,320
1455 even look for a bullish pattern to trade in here with the
1456
1457 365
1458 00:29:13,320 ~-~-> 00:29:16,800
1459 expectation of this high being retested. So it gives you a
1460
1461 366
1462 00:29:16,800 ~-~-> 00:29:24,540
1463 means of trading it very, very extreme of each range. Okay.
1464
1465 367
1466 00:29:24,660 ~-~-> 00:29:27,600
1467 So when you're looking at trip, you want to be looking at
1468
1469 368
1470 00:29:27,990 ~-~-> 00:29:36,330
1471 doing at least 90% of your trades at the far extreme of each
1472
1473 369
1474 00:29:36,450 ~-~-> 00:29:39,840
1475 range that you're working within. Okay, yeah, the likelihood
1476
1477 370
1478 00:29:39,840 ~-~-> 00:29:44,640
1479 of trading in the middle of the range is much, much lower.
1480
1481 371
1482 00:29:44,820 ~-~-> 00:29:49,140
1483 If If you trade in the middle range versus the extreme outer
1484
1485 372
1486 00:29:49,140 ~-~-> 00:29:53,880
1487 range. Like up in here, you being a seller up here versus
1488
1489 373
1490 00:29:53,880 ~-~-> 00:29:56,910
1491 being a buyer. It goes without saying it's pretty obvious,
1492
1493 374
1494 00:29:57,090 ~-~-> 00:30:01,470
1495 okay. The prices rally this far. Just like we've seen here,
1496
1497 375
1498 00:30:01,470 ~-~-> 00:30:04,470
1499 price rallies in this far one direction, you're going to
1500
1501 376
1502 00:30:04,470 ~-~-> 00:30:09,120
1503 outer CUSP, okay? They're out a range of this trading range,
1504
1505 377
1506 00:30:09,300 ~-~-> 00:30:13,380
1507 the likelihood of that continuing up is far, far less than
1508
1509 378
1510 00:30:13,380 ~-~-> 00:30:17,340
1511 the likelihood of going lower. Okay. So again, the question
1512
1513 379
1514 00:30:17,340 ~-~-> 00:30:20,280
1515 is, is where are we in the range? And where is the path of
1516
1517 380
1518 00:30:20,280 ~-~-> 00:30:23,100
1519 least resistance? If you think like that, look into the
1520
1521 381
1522 00:30:23,100 ~-~-> 00:30:26,400
1523 charts, defining the current trading range that we're
1524
1525 382
1526 00:30:26,400 ~-~-> 00:30:28,950
1527 working with, and understanding that mechanics are setting
1528
1529 383
1530 00:30:28,950 ~-~-> 00:30:32,430
1531 planning time price dates in a range, it does not mean 100%
1532
1533 384
1534 00:30:32,430 ~-~-> 00:30:34,230
1535 of the time, it's going to be like that. But notice what
1536
1537 385
1538 00:30:34,230 ~-~-> 00:30:37,830
1539 we're doing, we're looking for trades back and forth, each
1540
1541 386
1542 00:30:37,830 ~-~-> 00:30:41,970
1543 direction and not having to rely on a trend directional
1544
1545 387
1546 00:30:41,970 ~-~-> 00:30:45,120
1547 bias, like we talked about in the first two volumes. And the
1548
1549 388
1550 00:30:45,120 ~-~-> 00:30:48,360
1551 reason why I'm including this is because I know some of you
1552
1553 389
1554 00:30:48,360 ~-~-> 00:30:52,620
1555 simply can't trust the moving averages, and you want to have
1556
1557 390
1558 00:30:52,620 ~-~-> 00:30:55,290
1559 something that has a lot more action in your trading. If you
1560
1561 391
1562 00:30:55,290 ~-~-> 00:30:57,750
1563 start trading inside the range like this, you're gonna have
1564
1565 392
1566 00:30:57,750 ~-~-> 00:31:01,020
1567 more trades than you ever dreamed of. But you're also going
1568
1569 393
1570 00:31:01,020 ~-~-> 00:31:03,120
1571 to have the likelihood of losing more times than you
1572
1573 394
1574 00:31:03,120 ~-~-> 00:31:04,740
1575 probably would if you just stayed on one side of the
1576
1577 395
1578 00:31:04,740 ~-~-> 00:31:08,820
1579 marketplace, like we discussed in volumes one and two. So,
1580
1581 396
1582 00:31:09,420 ~-~-> 00:31:14,040
1583 to recap, when we look at price, we want to find out again,
1584
1585 397
1586 00:31:14,040 ~-~-> 00:31:17,040
1587 where are we at in the range, what the only range highs and
1588
1589 398
1590 00:31:17,040 ~-~-> 00:31:20,820
1591 lows are we working within, and the likelihood of that range
1592
1593 399
1594 00:31:20,820 ~-~-> 00:31:23,790
1595 staying intact is 70%. Okay, so that's pretty good
1596
1597 400
1598 00:31:23,790 ~-~-> 00:31:27,900
1599 statistical odds. If you add that equation with the order
1600
1601 401
1602 00:31:27,900 ~-~-> 00:31:31,350
1603 blocks and you keep your profits very concise, very
1604
1605 402
1606 00:31:33,990 ~-~-> 00:31:35,880
1607 objective. In other words, this is an area where you would
1608
1609 403
1610 00:31:35,880 ~-~-> 00:31:38,880
1611 expect to see selling because we had selling all through
1612
1613 404
1614 00:31:38,880 ~-~-> 00:31:42,390
1615 here, but more importantly, we have a very clear, bearish
1616
1617 405
1618 00:31:42,390 ~-~-> 00:31:45,240
1619 order block. price went way up in that level and what
1620
1621 406
1622 00:31:45,240 ~-~-> 00:31:49,710
1623 happened true to form drop down, look at this, it goes right
1624
1625 407
1626 00:31:49,710 ~-~-> 00:31:52,950
1627 back into a previous bullish order block is a perfect
1628
1629 408
1630 00:31:52,950 ~-~-> 00:31:55,620
1631 opportunity to take your profits, just doing a trade like
1632
1633 409
1634 00:31:55,620 ~-~-> 00:31:59,640
1635 that. Okay, just simply doing something like that. here to
1636
1637 410
1638 00:31:59,640 ~-~-> 00:32:03,360
1639 here. Hundred 80 pips? Would it be fun? It would be too far
1640
1641 411
1642 00:32:03,360 ~-~-> 00:32:07,830
1643 for me to say that, realistically, there's a good 60 pips in
1644
1645 412
1646 00:32:07,830 ~-~-> 00:32:11,670
1647 that that you could have taken out. Think about that. It's
1648
1649 413
1650 00:32:11,670 ~-~-> 00:32:15,960
1651 not getting every high and low. It's about getting portions
1652
1653 414
1654 00:32:16,050 ~-~-> 00:32:20,220
1655 of these moves, okay and banking them and compounding the
1656
1657 415
1658 00:32:20,220 ~-~-> 00:32:24,090
1659 growth of your equity over a period of time. And I promise
1660
1661 416
1662 00:32:24,090 ~-~-> 00:32:26,490
1663 you if you spend time looking at the charts and studying it,
1664
1665 417
1666 00:32:26,910 ~-~-> 00:32:30,570
1667 you'll see many many more opportunities trading inside the
1668
1669 418
1670 00:32:30,570 ~-~-> 00:32:31,080
1671 range