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1 -Main.WebHome
1 +Forex.The-Inner-Circle-Trader1.WebHome
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1 1  {{box cssClass="box floatinginfobox" title="**Quick Links**"}}
2 -{{toc start="2"/}}
2 +{{toc start="2" depth="5" numbered="true"/}}
3 3  {{/box}}
4 4  
5 -== Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
5 +== {{id name="Primer"/}}Optimal Trade Entry Primer ==
6 6  
7 7  * one of many trading patterns, one of the easiest
8 8  * trading plan needs to be simple:
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15 15  ** where do you take profits?
16 16  * what make the market predisposed to go higher or lower?
17 17  ** look at HTF (M, W, D, 4h) and look for key levels where price has moved away from in the past
18 -** HTF shows where the big players are most likely going to push things around.
18 +** HTF shows where the big players are most likely going to push things around.
19 19  ** LTF is too noisy to show this detail.
20 20  * Assuming bullish market, we are looking for where the market wants to trade higher.  OTE is based on buying during the retracements that occur before the further push upwards.
21 21  * The impulse move has to incorporate a break in Market Structure.
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40 40  \\- daily view
41 41  [[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.14.02.png]]
42 42  \\- 15m view[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 03.06.46.png]]
43 +
43 43  * Note the following:
44 44  ** institutional levels
45 45  ** old monthly high at 1.1720 (1.17137 rounded)
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47 47  ** the new STH makes for a more likely trade opportunity. (market maker model) and opens up the chance for an OTE.
48 48  ** also, a high, with two lower highs on either side makes that high more significant.  when this high is broken, it's a more convincing move than breaking the other shorter term highs, thus giving us the opportunity to find a likely OTE.
49 49  ** at the fib, we see price rockets away from a STL
51 +
50 50  * when old highs/lows are broken, trades will tend to reach back to those old positions (retail calls it "support")
51 51  
52 -== Introduction ==
54 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
53 53  
54 -* sdfg
56 +== {{id name="Intro"/}}Introduction - AUDUSD ==
55 55  
56 -== Example 1 ==
58 +* how to annotate the charts to look for specific price patterns
59 +* study for the patterns for a month, and it'll start to become more easily recognizable as you train your brain to recognize it, then see if you can see it live
60 +* the pattern should appear every day, but not necessarily on the same pairs
61 +* daily chart - audusd, 20-apr-2020 contains two down candles, showing orderblock
62 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.21.46.png]]
63 +
64 +* the two equal lows in May are sensitive to prices in that order block
65 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.23.52.png]]
66 +
67 +* we are primarily looking for reactions to the previous days range. (last visible green candle in the picture above)
68 +* can we determine whether the price is going to be able to break the previous days high or low?
69 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.50.28.png]]
70 +We can see that the recent lows pushed slightly into the order block, but returned indicating that prices doesn't currently want to run lower.
71 +
72 +* AUDUSD 5M example[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 04.58.02.png]]
73 +Mark out the previous days high and low.
74 +\\The black line (6450) represents the closest institutional or key level near the previous days high.  The blue lines above and below are a 10 pip spread.
75 +
76 +* The OTE pattern occurs during the 8:30 to 11:00am NY session.  That's when the major news and reports tends to come out. 
77 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.02.49.png||queryString="width=385&height=579" height="579" width="385"]]
78 +The green box represents the 62 to 79% Fib retracement levels in the OTE pattern
79 +
80 +* The Fib box is drawn from the low to high when the previous days high has been broken.
81 +* Trade
82 +** lot size that allows taking the partials (0.04, take a bit off each time? 
83 +** SL will be set below the 100 level.
84 +** Profit taking
85 +*** take at 1st scaling at -0.5 or 15 pips or more
86 +*** take next at -1.0 or 15 pips or more (or slightly before - round down to the nearest 10 level)
87 +*** take a scaling at 100 pips regardless of where you are
88 +*** take next at -1.5
89 +*** take next at -2.0
90 +*** once price moves beyond the 1st scaling, move the SL up (just beyond BE)
91 +*** 2nd scaling - move SL above SL.
92 +*** other scalings - watch the trades, then set SL beyond BE, not to close so there is room for the trade to run.
93 +*** get out by the last scaling
94 +* Fib settings for Trading View:
95 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-06-29 at 05.10.27.png||queryString="width=363&height=533" height="533" width="363"]]
96 +We could also at -1.5 level
97 +
98 +* key things learned
99 +** when to move a stop
100 +** what entry price to look for
101 +** where stop loss should be
102 +** where do you take partials
103 +** what you avoid doing to your revised stops (choking them out)
57 57  
58 -* example
105 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
59 59  
60 -== Example 2 ==
107 +== {{id name="Ex02"/}}Example 2 - USDJPY ==
61 61  
62 -* example
109 +* Daily Chart
110 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.38.28.png]]
111 +\\fib drawn from the swing low, to the swing high
112 +
113 +* previous days high (2nd last candle) broke the high from the day before that.  This means we could potentially see a turn, or an expansion to the upside
114 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.40.40.png]]
115 +\\Our high is 106.65(7)
116 +
117 +* Dropping into the 5m chart:
118 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.43.50.png]]
119 +\\Where do you think the OTE is going to be?  Look before scrolling further.  Remember the magic hours of 08:30 - 11:00 NY time. 
120 +
121 +* Fib added from the previous low at point 1, to the last recent high at point 2
122 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 01.47.47.png]]
123 +
124 +* Trading View chart, 15m
125 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.10.10.png]]
126 +
127 +* On the above chart is a second OTE occurring just after the OTE period opening
128 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.19.10.png]]
129 +\\From the swing low, to the new high breaking the previous high.  The OTE opportunity crosses the weekend.  
130 +
131 +* 5m chart view
132 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.22.17.png||queryString="width=591&height=819" height="819" width="591"]]
133 +\\the recent low marked, right side showing the new high forming the OTE pattern.
63 63  
64 -== Example 3 ==
135 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
65 65  
66 -* example
137 +== {{id name="Ex03"/}}Example 3 - S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (June 2020) ==
67 67  
68 -== Example 4 ==
139 +* Daily Chart
140 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.43.11.jpg]]
141 +
142 +* currently inside of an OTE 
143 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.46.32.jpg||height="696" width="687"]]
144 +\\The fib provides a framework - old low, old high, retracement back to the 79 level.  On the daily chart, the momentum is likely to go higher.  It could be reaching for the old high, it could break through, or it could fail.  It doesn't matter.
145 +\\What we do care is that it is likely to run the previous day's high.
146 +
147 +* Previous day's high marked
148 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 02.53.30.jpg||height="167" width="848"]]
149 +
150 +* 5m chart
151 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.24.45.jpg]]
152 +
153 +* Marked up
154 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.28.25.jpg]]
155 +\\The "big figure" is 2900.  Price has traded down into that during the NY session.  Whenever a big figure is swept, either down into, or up into, it generally creates a tradeable bounce or retracement, even if it is very short lived. 
156 +
157 +* Focus on the NY session time to find the OTE
158 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.31.40.jpg||height="417" width="313"]]
159 +
160 +* OTE marked
161 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.34.05.jpg||height="850" width="775"]]
162 +
163 +* and here is how it played out
164 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 03.36.45.jpg]]
165 +\\In this example, the market tends to want to gravitate towards the old high because the market is bullish, and will catch out the market short sellers.
166 +
69 69  
70 -* example
168 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
71 71  
72 -== Example 5 ==
170 +== {{id name="Ex04"/}}Example 4 - GBPUSD ==
73 73  
172 +* 1H chart
173 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.22.04.jpg]]
174 +
175 +* Marked up using "support and resistance" paradigm. Note that this is a retail trading mindset and it is wrong.
176 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.31.28.jpg]]
177 +\\Again.  Wrong.
178 +
179 +* ICT Markup - [Market Efficiency Paradigm] (link to definition later)
180 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.34.19.jpg]]
181 +\\It's basically the narrative of why price goes where it does and why it reacts the way it does when it gets there and where it is reaching to next.  The ICT Bearish Breaker cuts to the whole narrative immediately. 
182 +\\Why?  You want to look at price and look for areas where they run an old high because above that is going to be buy stops.  And this is buy side liquidity.  This could be in the form of buy stops for new long entries, or stops protecting existing shorts.
183 +\\The big candle to the right runs through that zone to gather the liquidity.  Also, ICT calls this candle pattern a "Judus Swing" because it's a fake move because it appears to signal a bullish move.
184 +\\When we see these sharp runs that that run previous highs/lows, it's highly suspect to ICT.  If we get back down below the lowest down candle (ICT Bearish Breaker), breaking that low (which it does in the 3-6am bull candles above), the narrative changes to Bearish.
185 +\\So what we do is go to that Breaker, draw the line out in time and then you'll be able to see the real turning point, or the real support/resistance level if you like.  Look at the 7-9am candles on the right where it touches the 1.2371 line.
186 +
187 +* This provides the narrative behind finding and OTE with this structure in place.  It can occur in a trendless market environment, and doesn't have to have a bullish or bearish trend on the daily chart, so go into the lower timeframes.
188 +
189 +* 1h chart marked up showing the previous days low as our highlighted candle is a ICT Bearish Breaker and tends to indicate that we are going for new lows and it is likely we will target the previous days low.
190 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 04.59.43.jpg]]
191 +\\The new ICT bearish breaker is highlighted in the pink box.
192 +
193 +* 5m with the NY Session highlighted
194 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.01.46.jpg]]
195 +\\
196 +* and here is the OTE Fib marked.
197 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.04.42.jpg]]
198 +\\stops will be above the 1.0 point
199 +\\We see the high, down to the low, and then the price returning to the OTE where we can fill our order.  Our -2 level is the 1.23 big level and the institutions reaching for the old lows and the liquidity that can be found there.
200 +
201 +* Also note, that we have not yet taken our previous days lows, so there is a second possible OTE entry.  The price starts to retrace at at 11am - which is just outside of our session window, but still acceptable.  So, place the fib and see if this retracement suggests a trade
202 +
203 +* Fib placed
204 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.17.16.jpg]]
205 +\\We see the high, low, the retracement into the 62 OTE region and we'll be targeting the previous days low with a short.  The stop would be above the high
206 +\\Our targets: 
207 +- 1.2282 - 1.2283 for our 0.5 level
208 +- 1.2265 for our 1.0 level, or we could target the 1.227 level as a more likely target rather than getting a full fib.
209 +\\We're rounding down our numbers and being content with not being too greedy so we don't make a winning trade a losing one.
210 +
211 +* Results:
212 +[[image:Screenshot 2020-07-07 at 05.25.06.jpg]]
213 +\\\\0.5 taken.  1.0 taken.
214 +
215 +
216 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
217 +
218 +== {{id name="Ex05"/}}Example 5 ==
219 +
74 74  * example
75 75  
76 -== Example 6 ==
222 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
77 77  
224 +== {{id name="Ex06"/}}Example 6 ==
225 +
78 78  * example
79 79  
80 -== Example 7 ==
228 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
81 81  
230 +== {{id name="Ex07"/}}Example 7 ==
231 +
82 82  * example
83 83  
84 -== Example 8 ==
234 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
85 85  
236 +== {{id name="Ex08"/}}Example 8 ==
237 +
86 86  * example
87 87  
88 -== Example 9 ==
240 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
89 89  
242 +== {{id name="Ex09"/}}Example 9 ==
243 +
90 90  * example
91 91  
92 -== Example 10 ==
246 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
93 93  
248 +== {{id name="Ex10"/}}Example 10 ==
249 +
94 94  * example
95 95  
96 -== Example 11 ==
252 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
97 97  
254 +== {{id name="Ex11"/}}Example 11 ==
255 +
98 98  * example
99 99  
100 -== Example 12 ==
258 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
101 101  
260 +== {{id name="Ex12"/}}Example 12 ==
261 +
102 102  * example
103 103  
104 -== Example 13 ==
264 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
105 105  
266 +== {{id name="Ex13"/}}Example 13 ==
267 +
106 106  * example
107 107  
108 -== Example 14 ==
270 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
109 109  
272 +== {{id name="Ex14"/}}Example 14 ==
273 +
110 110  * example
111 111  
112 -== Example 15 ==
276 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
113 113  
278 +== {{id name="Ex15"/}}Example 15 ==
279 +
114 114  * example
115 115  
116 -== Example 16 ==
282 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
117 117  
284 +== {{id name="Ex16"/}}Example 16 ==
285 +
118 118  * example
119 119  
120 -== Example 17 ==
288 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
121 121  
290 +== {{id name="Ex17"/}}Example 17 ==
291 +
122 122  * example
123 123  
124 -== Example 18 ==
294 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
125 125  
296 +== {{id name="Ex18"/}}Example 18 ==
297 +
126 126  * example
127 127  
128 -== Example 19 ==
300 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
129 129  
302 +== {{id name="Ex19"/}}Example 19 ==
303 +
130 130  * example
131 131  
132 -== Example 20 ==
306 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
133 133  
308 +== {{id name="Ex20"/}}Example 20 ==
309 +
134 134  * example
311 +
312 +====== ~[[[top>>doc:Forex.The Inner Circle Trader.OTE Pattern Recognition Notes.WebHome]]] ======
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