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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-12-09 05:10
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Drunk Monkey 1.1 1 1
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3 ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. All right, this is a discussion on new markets
4 and market making.
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8 Okay, so we're gonna be talking about blockchain. And before we even get into
9 this, let me preface it by saying, I have never, ever traded any
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13 cryptocurrencies. I've only recently gave it a second look, because my
14 subscriber base is actually growing exponentially, and it has a lot to do with
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18 the crypto community. Now, again, while I have never personally traded crypto, I
19 have 10s of 1000s of subscribers, both on YouTube and my other media that swear
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23 by my concepts working very well in this asset class. So I've spent about two
24 weeks or so from the time this recording. And what I've seen, has shown me that
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28 there's a lot of things that I teach by way of the other asset classes, and my
29 forte really is forex. So some of the things that I teach, I go in and look for,
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33 and if there's any evidence to support those characteristics or traits behind
34 price action, then I believe that smart money's actually working inside that
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38 asset. And now, admittedly, because it was such a new asset, if you want to call
39 it that, they they were too fast. In the limelight, if you will, too many people
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43 were talking about it. And I just felt it was better for me to sit on the
44 sidelines and just wait and see how much growth or interest it gets from the
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48 banks. There's a lot of things that have been said negatively and positively
49 about crypto. And I have been accused of beating up crypto, and I have beat up
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53 individuals that were trying to buy it at 18,000. I just felt that it was
54 foolish to do so. And in fact, you can actually look at the tweets added on
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58 December 17 2017, were actually called the high in the market on Bitcoin. I gave
59 you the reasons why I felt it was not going to hit 20,000. And while initially I
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63 was looking for 2000 to 2500 point slide, that was the precursor that led to the
64 ultimate crash. Now, traders are not referring to it as a crash, because that
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68 word begins a whole paradigm shift. Okay. And I think by far and large, the
69 crypto currency market carries the same stigma that penny stocks has. And it's
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73 really basically pump and dump. And because there's really nothing behind the
74 cryptocurrency, except for the perceived value, or the perceived future,
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78 usefulness of it as a replacement for fiat currency, it really is still in the
79 same boat. So my argument has always been that all we're doing is talking about
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83 another flavor of ice cream. There's nothing really new under the sun. And while
84 it may seem Maverick or rebellious to be in this type of thing and thinking it's
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88 going to beat the banks. My personal opinion is it was actually started by the
89 banks. The bankers are absolutely shrewd, okay, and you're going to never ever,
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93 ever beat them. Okay, as long as the sun keeps coming up and in the world keeps
94 turning, people are going to be doing business through the medium of a bank, and
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98 you're never going to escape it. So I just want to build this idea going
99 forward. I think that crypto has a place in the future where that is personally
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103 I don't know. I haven't given it that much concerned to study it. I've only
104 recently last couple weeks really give it my time to look at and it's only
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108 because we're on holiday break and forex to me, as it'll you know, it's
109 lackluster for me right now. And I don't actively trade it in the latter parts
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113 of December. So I've given a lot of focus to crypto. And one of the first things
114 I wanted to go into and see if it had hallmarks to how banking algorithms and
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118 how price engines deliver price. If those hallmarks are there in Bitcoin, then
119 in fact it is a manipulated market and it is not a new Bastion for
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123 For Mavericks that are escaping the banking industry or the you the Fed, if you
124 will, it's the same show, okay? All it is, is it's wearing a different dress
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128 now. So what I'm gonna cover here is this basically a interpretation of how I
129 look at assets and how I study price action is going to be basically an overview
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133 General, for most of the general concept, now, it's not an exhaustive, there's
134 so many things that I do, and can be done in price action that I can't include
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138 in one video. I mean, any, anyone that has looked at my material knows that I
139 can go on and on and on, and never really exhausted the topic. So just
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143 understand that what I'm going to cover here are just basically those simple
144 things that leads to my appreciation or respect of an asset because it has all
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148 the hallmarks that a large bank or institutional perspective would see in price
149 action. And I'm going to discuss how these hallmarks lend well, to my
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153 understanding of how markets are made, so it'll be a general overview how market
154 making is done, and how that might apply to cryptocurrencies. Alright, so we're
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158 going to talk about pricing in premiums for distribution. And this is commonly
159 referred to as pump and dump when we see these events in price action. And
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163 again, they're very synonymous with penny stocks. The ramp up aggressively, you
164 see these stellar rallies, and then everyone piles in at the top, and then it
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168 collapses and crashes down. So I'm going to show you how I gave this insight
169 before the fact on my Twitter feed. I'll give you some explanations as to why I
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173 felt it was likely to occur. And you can use it as an example to study. But it's
174 not random in nature. So when we see these big run ups in price, it's not just
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178 indiscriminate amount of buyers coming in, price has actually been delivered to
179 a specific level. Price seeks this specific level for a purpose of offloading
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183 Smart Money entries that have long earlier entered way before the move started
184 going on. Once the price levels reached, we're going to anticipate and many
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188 times see heavy distribution, when this occurs, most often reversals form. And
189 then what happens is the market will generally run against those long holders
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193 that are wanting to hold for higher prices.
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197 Alright, we're looking at Bitcoin. This is the coin base, Bitcoin versus dollar.
198 And I've highlighted a few things here that I like to look at for price. And
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202 what these are, these are just doing these things because of times of the day.
203 So during London, I'm looking at generally between two o'clock in the morning,
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207 New York time to 5am, New York time. And in New York, kill zone, I'm referring
208 to specifically the 7am, New York time to 10 o'clock in the morning, if I start
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212 seeing hallmarks behind price, respecting these times of day, and when we have
213 equal highs like this, okay, I refer to that as a liquidity pool. And for the
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217 purpose of making it easy understand, it's like a Candyland. Okay, so the market
218 will go up here and snatch the candy from those individuals that want to sell
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222 short trusting that as resistance, but I highlighted this level up here 16 450.
223 And the reason why I did that I'll go in details of what that level is towards
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227 the end of the video. But for now, I just want you to focus on the fact that
228 price was heading towards that level. Okay, so that was the specific level had
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232 in mind. So they were pumping it up from way back here and back here and before
233 any started consolidating here. These equal lows are the equivalent of what I've
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237 highlighted here. Resting above these equal highs will be by stops. And below
238 these equal lows we sell stops. So anyone that had been long here, they see
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242 these equal lows. At that moment, they're going to share their stop loss rate
243 below these equal lows and that's what this move is here during the London
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247 session, so I like to see those types of characteristics. Then we had a little
248 bit of retracement again back into New York. And then we had a nice rally up in
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252 price. Again, equal it's hard to see in here but these are equal lows, price
253 came down in New York tagged those stops knocking in again. I need long holders
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257 that had a trailed stop loss in the form of a sell stop. Those would be tagged
258 here. And then and only then the market is permitted to trade higher as price is
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262 starting to reach for this 16 450 my thought process Okay, they're going to
263 distribute there. So there's probably going to be a reversal scenario, most
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267 likely occurring around that level. A bit later on price trades up into that
268 16 450 level, two times trades to it just a little bit. And ultimately, it
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272 breaks down. Price creates another run below equal lows, and then rallies up.
273 Now I teach this as a specific trading patterns in my optimal trade entry. So
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277 and I'm highlighting here and these are all tweeted charts, they were all time
278 and date stamped, as you can see up here. And again, we have equal lows relative
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282 to these two specific lows here. And that's what's being highlighted. So I
283 believe that the price is going to be drawn down to that level of 15 100, or
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287 15,100. And that's the initial objective. So I'm looking to see if price once
288 you reach down here now, I studied this this entire week with you all publicly,
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292 I didn't know for certain it was going to unfold as accurate as it did. So
293 that's the only reason why I'm even referring to crypto in a YouTube video on my
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297 channel, because I have never really been a fan of crypto. But I'm giving it my
298 attention now because I get asked a lot of questions about it. And I know
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302 there's a large number of my community that actually do trade these assets. And
303 I hear nothing but good things about my concepts working in them. So my interest
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307 has been piqued to the point where let me just take a look at it. And these are
308 some of the things I've seen in the last two weeks. Now there's things that led
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312 to me understanding this level as a specific time
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316 of day when it would hit. And that specific level. Those are teachings that I do
317 in my mentorship, which is not free, it's not public, I do have a lot of free
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321 tutorials on my website at the inner circle trader.com. And I have a forum
322 there. And you're all welcome to come. And it's there's no charge to go into
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326 that. But I give a lot of detailed teachings. Some of them are older, but they
327 are still relevant. These are concepts that I've been trading with for over 20
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331 years. So there's a lot of gravity towards what I'm teaching the trading
332 community. Because what I teach works, it's not based on any kind of indicator,
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336 it's not based on any kind of, you know, willy nilly gimmick, okay, it's
337 straight price action. And it's based on an institutional perspective, that
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341 lends very, very well to a Chartist. So if you like looking at charts, or if you
342 haven't really grown in an appreciation about charting, my concepts kind of
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346 force you to do that. If you don't want to subscribe to that view, then my
347 methods aren't going to be any help to you. So the main takeaway is, is trying
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351 not to blend other disciplines with what I teach, because mine more or less is
352 at opposition with everyone else. It's, it's like a lion, it'll it'll defend
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356 itself is turn it loose, it'll do it needs to do investigate the things I tell
357 you to look for. Don't believe what I say. Just look at it yourself. And you'll
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361 be convinced. Okay, so price was most likely going to reach this level here. And
362 that's what I was looking for. Again, I tweeted this chart that everyone knew
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366 when I was looking for. And this is the optimal trade entry pattern here. Okay,
367 so that retracement back to the 62% retracement level. And we would look for
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371 reasonable price objectives as delineated here. Okay, so I was looking for this
372 one, primarily because it's a symmetrical price swing, which is, again taught in
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376 my optimal trade entry, or OTP, primer video on my YouTube channel, inner circle
377 trader, pull that up, it's a nice little introductory lesson to how to set your
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381 fib up and how to look for optimal trade entries shorts and Long's, but this is
382 the optimal trade entry so and it would be a symmetrical price swing. So I'm
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386 looking for this as a downside objective, this is the initial objective, then
387 this is the next one. Then if we get a really nice slide, we're going to look
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391 for this objective down here at 14,400. And then even lower than that, but these
392 are the specific levels I'd be looking for in advance beforehand. So they're not
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396 like he'll here this is a good level that was already hit in the past. This was
397 all done publicly through my twitter at I underscore m underscore ICT so you're
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401 welcome to go and look at that. The tweets are still there you can see it's all
402 there for public consumption. Now going back out on a higher timeframe, we can
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406 see how that level at 16,450 acted as a nice resistance price point. And now I'm
407 going to bring in what I refer to as a ICT market maker sell model. Now at first
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411 glance, this is going to look like if you've been really studying technical
412 analysis for a long time. It's gonna look like wycoff Okay, and admittedly,
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416 there is a lot of similarities to wycoff markup, and markdown That's not
417 everything that's going on in here. I just saw that years and years and years
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421 ago, and it helps me see something I thought I was imagining, I would see a lot
422 of this type of formations and price action. But I do not subscribe to wycoff.
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426 But I encourage anyone that watches my material, if you haven't looked at
427 wycoff, study it. And then you'll see the folks that just look at me drawing
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431 these boxes on here. They think right away that it's, you know, it's like often
432 only waste your time learning anything from ICT, I have amplified a lot of
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436 things that retail minded traders and educators have put out and regurgitated
437 off of each other. And all I'm asking you to do is take a look at it. Okay, it's
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441 free. It doesn't cost anything but your time. And I promise you everything that
442 I talked about, if it's resembling anything in other disciplines, it's not, it's
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446 not what it is. And I amplify or correct the shortcomings of other disciplinary
447 approaches to trading. And wycoff was no exception there, I built a lot of
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451 precision around the general theme. Okay, so I guess what I'm saying here is
452 don't focus so much on these boxes, and miss the entire point of what I'm trying
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456 to show. But I do cover this in my tutorials. So what I'm looking at is we had
457 this original
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461 base of accumulation, okay, so we're market, we're about to rally up, okay, all
462 my eye does is go right to this area of a trading range. Now, you can frame all
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466 kinds of other trading ranges out of all this stuff here. So why am I using this
467 one, particularly, because it had the most dynamic price action movement away on
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471 the north side of it. So this whole range here, I'd classify that as the
472 original consolidation or accumulation phase, so long as we're being highlighted
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476 here, price moves out, then stage goes into another consolidation, then we have
477 another expansion out of that consolidation. So there's a re accumulation. So in
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481 the scope of the entire process, it's smart money accumulation of long
482 positions, it moves higher, recalculates more long positions, goes higher,
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486 raking leaves more long positions here, and then distribution, right here, and
487 then they start selling off their positions here, and then a later time, they'll
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491 start selling off here, ultimately, to get back down below here. Now there's two
492 types of market making. Okay, there's market making facilitates the trade
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496 between other traders. And there's in house market making that will also provide
497 a means for the market maker to make a book for themselves, today making a
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501 profit. So they can also speculate not just facilitate trade or pair up orders
502 between buyers and sellers. In this instance, okay, the buyers that bought in
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506 here, they could have sold here, and had nothing left on the position. The
507 buyers that bought in here, could have sold out here and had nothing left in
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511 their position. Same thing here, they could have bought here. So here it had
512 nothing, left them in position, there are some that hedge so they could be
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516 selling in here, selling more here, selling more here, and then selling more
517 here. And as it starts coming back down, they'll start buying it back, they'll
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521 start buying it back, and they'll start buying it back down here. So they're
522 always in the market doing something because they're being Counterparty to other
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526 traders. So there's market making in that respect. So they're really not trying
527 to make a profit, so to speak, they're just being counterparties. Okay, and
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531 that's the smallest scale, or I guess the opportunity that market making seeks,
532 okay, that part of it. Market making is not trying to facilitate trade for new
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536 profit. But it does occur. And it does appear in trading, when I try to promote
537 and teach in my studies is during these original consolidations in here, this is
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541 all smart money buying. So if we start to see consolidation in here, I know that
542 it's going to be reaching our specific level. So I start going through the
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546 higher timeframe charts, to figure out what they're reaching for because they're
547 not trading on 30 minute and five minute, one minute charts or tick charts. It's
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551 based on a higher time frame level. And again, before we close the video, I'll
552 show you what this level is and why it was so important. When we start seeing
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556 these rallies up and consolidations rally up I know I'm in what I refer to as
557 the ICT market maker sell model. In other words, they're ramping up or pumping
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561 to dump it. So everything that they bought here anything below that would be
562 formed of a sell stop. So traders that bought here held didn't trade a stop loss
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566 higher held and didn't bring a stoploss off any higher held and didn't bring
567 your stop loss any higher. Then didn't doing your adjustment for their risk
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571 management either. So to stop still below here, in here, there's gonna be
572 another sell off likely and they're gonna target that level right in here. So
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576 that's basically what it is, it's a pump reversal in slam it down to take out
577 the long holders that we're here that we're not smart enough or astute enough to
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579 117
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581 get out here, here or ultimately here. Okay, so that's what makes the sell
582 model, or basically a pump and dump in the grand scheme of things to keep things
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586 pretty retail, so you guys can understand what I'm saying. That's all it is, is
587 just a run up just to sell off. So if we look further, we can see that the price
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591 eventually did hit the second level I had for a price objective, I try to screen
592 capture it as the markets trade to the levels I call for in Twitter. And this is
593
594 120
595 00:20:39,180 ~-~-> 00:20:49,680
596 where personally be taking some partial profits here. If I were selling from up
597 here, or up here, and you can see back on that hard timeframe, we can see that
598
599 121
600 00:20:49,680 ~-~-> 00:20:55,680
601 price has now moved below this consolidation and ultimately has retail retreated
602 back down to the top that consolidation right here.
603
604 122
605 00:20:58,440 ~-~-> 00:21:05,730
606 So you can see how price did go a little bit below their second level objective.
607 didn't quite get down to the other objective I had in mind. But we're seeing a
608
609 123
610 00:21:05,730 ~-~-> 00:21:17,370
611 little bit of retracement, I mentioned this during the particular trading day,
612 on the 27th of December, it was actually coming in around noon, New York time.
613
614 124
615 00:21:18,120 ~-~-> 00:21:26,880
616 And that's exactly when the opposite end of the daily range form. So this whole
617 entire day has been down to the low should be forming between 10 o'clock in the
618
619 125
620 00:21:26,880 ~-~-> 00:21:36,810
621 morning and noon, New York time. Okay, so whatever time it is in New York, it's
622 important to know that and there's the low, I got asked by a follower on
623
624 126
625 00:21:36,810 ~-~-> 00:21:45,060
626 Twitter, what did I think was gonna happen was it going to go any lower that
627 particular day, in my opinion was that we are put in the bulk of the volume. So
628
629 127
630 00:21:45,060 ~-~-> 00:21:56,580
631 banks, if they are in fact trading these, their their volume is done. Okay, so
632 the range should be kept at this point. And we see that was the fact here. And
633
634 128
635 00:21:56,580 ~-~-> 00:22:07,140
636 ultimately, moving forward into the 28th, which is the time of this recording on
637 December 2017. This is the whole entire market maker model to completion. Okay,
638
639 129
640 00:22:07,170 ~-~-> 00:22:15,900
641 I took a picture with the screen capture feature. And you can see the original
642 consolidation to stop. So it would be below here. That's what was targeted right
643
644 130
645 00:22:15,900 ~-~-> 00:22:27,480
646 there. And you can see the Smart Money accumulation, re accumulation, Re
647 cumulation, smart money reversal, low risk cell redistribution, ultimately
648
649 131
650 00:22:27,510 ~-~-> 00:22:33,990
651 taking us back down below the original consolidation. So the entire cycle is
652 complete. Now, that doesn't mean that this is done doesn't mean it's not going
653
654 132
655 00:22:33,990 ~-~-> 00:22:43,320
656 to go any lower. In fact, I think it's going to go to this level down here.
657 Personally, if a gun is held in my head, that's what I would expect. But we'll
658
659 133
660 00:22:43,320 ~-~-> 00:22:51,510
661 have a lot to see what's gonna actually happen. But I've been putting these
662 things out in public, so you can see what I'm anticipating what I'm seeing. So
663
664 134
665 00:22:51,510 ~-~-> 00:22:57,870
666 that way, it's not like I'm looking back and saying, Oh, yeah, this was
667 something cool. But it's already happened. And it was no real element to drawing
668
669 135
670 00:22:57,870 ~-~-> 00:23:12,780
671 your attention to beforehand. So I'm looking at the Bitcoin versus the US dollar
672 is the daily chart against this coin base. And I want to kind of draw your
673
674 136
675 00:23:12,780 ~-~-> 00:23:22,650
676 attention into the here, okay, and where we are at right now. And what we're
677 doing in terms of price action is the reason why I felt that it was more
678
679 137
680 00:23:22,920 ~-~-> 00:23:33,960
681 appropriate to anticipate a sell off at 16,450 or very close to that level. And
682 I'll show you what that level is and why it's important. But before that, I want
683
684 138
685 00:23:33,960 ~-~-> 00:23:48,210
686 to draw your attention to this high back here. Let's zoom in a little bit. Okay,
687 so on this particular candle right here. If you look at the open high, low and
688
689 139
690 00:23:48,210 ~-~-> 00:24:02,940
691 close up here, on this candle here, the high comes in at 19,697. This candle
692 here, it's high comes in at 19,797. Then the very next candle here and this is
693
694 140
695 00:24:02,940 ~-~-> 00:24:11,490
696 the candle I said that we would not see 20,000 and it was going to reverse and
697 slide 2020 500 points, and they would refuse those individuals they were holding
698
699 141
700 00:24:11,490 ~-~-> 00:24:24,450
701 out for 20,000 Bitcoin. The high comes in at 19,891. If you go on Twitter and
702 December 17 2017 on my Twitter feed, you'll see me actually outlining why this
703
704 142
705 00:24:24,450 ~-~-> 00:24:31,920
706 is the case and why I felt it was most likely going to be a market maker trap.
707 The reason why it was going to be a trap is because we had already priced above
708
709 143
710 00:24:31,980 ~-~-> 00:24:43,500
711 the all time high back here, trading right into it just above it a little bit
712 and I like to see that as false breakouts. Okay, everybody on Twitter, and the
713
714 144
715 00:24:43,500 ~-~-> 00:24:52,800
716 ones that you're probably listening to now, they were all excited about Bitcoin
717 breaking out. It's going to keep going higher. Here comes 30,000 and once we get
718
719 145
720 00:24:52,800 ~-~-> 00:25:01,200
721 through 20,000 is going to just be a straight shot to 30,000 and so on. They
722 were talking about Bitcoin 150,000 everybody Every one was talking about
723
724 146
725 00:25:01,200 ~-~-> 00:25:11,070
726 Bitcoin. My wife herself, even mentioned to me, Hey, are you trading Bitcoin?
727 Because it's really going up a lot? Well, if my wife is sitting next to me on
728
729 147
730 00:25:11,070 ~-~-> 00:25:20,460
731 the couch, and she's asking me about Bitcoin, and if I'm not in it, or if I
732 should be in it, rather, it's time to get out. Okay, I love my wife, but she's
733
734 148
735 00:25:20,460 ~-~-> 00:25:29,220
736 not a traitor. So that means everybody knows about Bitcoin. And I shared a
737 couple stories on my Twitter feed, I was in a grocery store, and a guy behind me
738
739 149
740 00:25:29,220 ~-~-> 00:25:36,540
741 two carts back literally told his son or assuming it was his son, you know, put
742 the ice cream and cookies and stuff back on the shelf, because he was trying to
743
744 150
745 00:25:36,540 ~-~-> 00:25:46,350
746 save some money because he's gonna buy more Bitcoin. I even said, at the time, I
747 was like, This is incredible, everyone's talking about Bitcoin. So if that's
748
749 151
750 00:25:46,350 ~-~-> 00:25:52,230
751 occurring, lots up here, it's done. And between that and the fact we broke up to
752 the old
753
754 152
755 00:25:52,650 ~-~-> 00:26:00,690
756 high, and we're looking at their big benchmark at 20,000. It's just like
757 dangling a carrot between you before, they're going to, oh, it's going to go
758
759 153
760 00:26:00,690 ~-~-> 00:26:11,970
761 higher, it's going to keep going higher. And that was the real reasons why I
762 called the top in Bitcoin that particular. So ultimately, I did see my 2020 500
763
764 154
765 00:26:11,970 ~-~-> 00:26:24,690
766 points slide, but in the process, and ended up changing the entire market
767 structure. So it ended up becoming over 9000 points in terms of a slide. Now,
768
769 155
770 00:26:24,930 ~-~-> 00:26:34,800
771 they're going to say this is a correction. But I see that as a crash. And I was
772 talking about Bitcoin crashing, before this run up here. Okay. I felt that it
773
774 156
775 00:26:34,800 ~-~-> 00:26:44,190
776 was going to crash, I thought it was going to go lower. I did not want to see it
777 trade to 20,000. On this day, or this day, based on all the elements that were
778
779 157
780 00:26:44,190 ~-~-> 00:26:54,120
781 there. I mean, the public, the street money was talking about Bitcoin. And we're
782 staring right at a 20,000 benchmark, it never gotten there. Okay, and it traded
783
784 158
785 00:26:54,120 ~-~-> 00:27:02,670
786 aggressively lower. And then all through this right around in here, you started
787 seeing all these stories about, you know, Bitcoin founders of this exchange, or
788
789 159
790 00:27:02,670 ~-~-> 00:27:13,410
791 that or whatever, supposedly well known individuals, pillars, if you will, of
792 the cryptocurrency realm, we're saying they've all exited in solar,
793
794 160
795 00:27:13,620 ~-~-> 00:27:23,700
796 cryptocurrencies. And it's useless, it's distance that so we were ahead of the
797 curve in that regard. So again, I'm not trying to beat much my chest and say,
798
799 161
800 00:27:23,700 ~-~-> 00:27:34,410
801 I'm Mr. crypto, um, because I'm not, I'm just saying that the things I know
802 about price action, I just started applying it to this. Okay. It's not like, I
803
804 162
805 00:27:34,410 ~-~-> 00:27:42,930
806 have some secret recipe for crypto trading, because its price, it's the same
807 thing. So if it's trading, and people are making money or losing money in it,
808
809 163
810 00:27:43,620 ~-~-> 00:27:52,740
811 the banks are involved, whether you like it or not, they are. And I know this
812 for a fact now, because I can see how their algorithmic approach to reading and
813
814 164
815 00:27:52,830 ~-~-> 00:28:02,250
816 working in price is in price action. If they were not in the banks, my methods
817 would not be holding up like they are. And I trade with an institutional
818
819 165
820 00:28:02,250 ~-~-> 00:28:10,170
821 perspective, I don't see, you know, retail things, there's nothing indicator
822 based on my charts, none of that stuff appears on my charts, unless I'm drawing
823
824 166
825 00:28:10,170 ~-~-> 00:28:20,040
826 a specific contrast to how retail would see something versus how I look at it
827 from a price action standpoint. I'm only only concerned really, about these four
828
829 167
830 00:28:20,040 ~-~-> 00:28:27,630
831 indicators up here. The open the high, the low, and the close those four
832 indicators to me is everything you'll ever need. Because if you understand what
833
834 168
835 00:28:27,630 ~-~-> 00:28:34,650
836 the open high low and closes on one currency, if you have a barometer printed
837 like $1 index, if you know the open high, low and close of that and contrast
838
839 169
840 00:28:34,680 ~-~-> 00:28:45,480
841 what you're trading against that you'll have all the indicators you need in
842 terms of relative strength. So if I know that the back story is this highs been
843
844 170
845 00:28:45,480 ~-~-> 00:28:54,780
846 violated, and then we rejected, we came down here and now we're consolidating
847 what is most likely going to occur? It's probably going to go lower. So if it's
848
849 171
850 00:28:54,780 ~-~-> 00:29:06,540
851 going to go lower, what's it going to do first? Run the buy stops. That's this
852 high right here. Okay, so this high comes in at 16 to 61. Okay, 16 to 61. Right
853
854 172
855 00:29:06,540 ~-~-> 00:29:16,470
856 before this high was broken by this run here. My eye goes right to the down
857 closed candle right before that run out. This is what I teach is an ice breaker.
858
859 173
860 00:29:16,740 ~-~-> 00:29:29,370
861 This is a bearish breaker. So if price trades to this low at 15,700. That begins
862 the distribution cycle of anything that was used to go long here to knock out
863
864 174
865 00:29:29,370 ~-~-> 00:29:36,630
866 the original short holders to head protective buy stops here. They started
867 seeing some money here. They ran it up one more time. Boom, knocked those
868
869 175
870 00:29:36,630 ~-~-> 00:29:46,410
871 individuals out and started to collapse at this moment right there. This candle
872 and you need long holders are underwater. So they're going to want to mitigate
873
874 176
875 00:29:46,410 ~-~-> 00:29:55,650
876 that in order to get out of that position. So the market will be repriced, to
877 that level. Right back in here. You'll see it and they'll distribute there but
878
879 177
880 00:29:55,650 ~-~-> 00:30:03,330
881 also notice it's happening as this swing highs been violated as well because any
882 Short holders here, they're going to have their step, their stop loss trail
883
884 178
885 00:30:03,330 ~-~-> 00:30:14,370
886 rainbow above this, and they take the market right above that level here. plink,
887 there it is, and then they quickly reprice it. Now we're going to go into a
888
889 179
890 00:30:14,370 ~-~-> 00:30:24,900
891 monthly chart on a monthly chart, but a monthly perspective. And we're going to
892 zoom in a little bit. And this is a 30 minute chart. Okay, and you can see one
893
894 180
895 00:30:24,900 ~-~-> 00:30:41,100
896 more time to make a little bit more clear. And more. So you can see this high
897 back here. We ran right above that. And then the distribution cycle, okay. Above
898
899 181
900 00:30:41,100 ~-~-> 00:30:50,070
901 this high by stops, and then right in here, I want to take a look at this candle
902 right there. This is the secret sauce. Okay, I'm gonna zoom in one more time, so
903
904 182
905 00:30:50,070 ~-~-> 00:30:50,790
906 you can see it.
907
908 183
909 00:30:53,970 ~-~-> 00:31:08,190
910 This candle right here. Okay, this is the last up close candle right for this
911 big move down. So this candle, it's high as 16,654. It's low as 16,300. Okay, so
912
913 184
914 00:31:08,190 ~-~-> 00:31:17,520
915 approximately in the middle, okay, we're going to get close to around 16,500.
916 And I want to get out a little bit before that. So 16,004 50 is what I elected
917
918 185
919 00:31:17,520 ~-~-> 00:31:27,360
920 to go with. So what this is, is an ICT bearish order block. Okay, and it's just
921 above where the buy stocks would be, and price rallied right back up to that
922
923 186
924 00:31:27,360 ~-~-> 00:31:38,220
925 price point, rejection. Now she goes, Okay, we are originally seeing that build
926 up of long positions right in here, a round up, re accumulation, re accumulation
927
928 187
929 00:31:38,370 ~-~-> 00:31:46,920
930 reversal, hit the brakes, they only pumped it up here, then knock out the stops
931 here, then and only then will price be allowed to trade lower. And that's what
932
933 188
934 00:31:46,920 ~-~-> 00:31:55,770
935 we saw here. Okay. And then we have an optimal trade entry. So here and target
936 the lows under here, which is what we seen here. And now we have another
937
938 189
939 00:31:55,770 ~-~-> 00:32:05,100
940 consolidation. Notice also just like this area with this short term high has
941 been violated with this run here. Sell stop seven trailed on the shorts, right
942
943 190
944 00:32:05,100 ~-~-> 00:32:13,650
945 above this high, they've been knocked out, and then only then it quickly gets a
946 ladder moving lower. Again, and here we have a swing high, it will be resting
947
948 191
949 00:32:13,650 ~-~-> 00:32:23,010
950 above that on shorts, protected by stops. Ooh, they knock those individuals out.
951 And now and only now, is it permitted to trade lower. Okay, so we can start
952
953 192
954 00:32:23,010 ~-~-> 00:32:36,330
955 looking for objectives, lower than we've already seen. You can see the elements,
956 everything is outlined here. everything as it was shared on Twitter. And
957
958 193
959 00:32:36,810 ~-~-> 00:32:48,720
960 ultimately, I think if we get below 13,000, we could trade to 12,009 20. But
961 ultimately, a lot of liquidity is resting right below this fractal. So I would
962
963 194
964 00:32:48,720 ~-~-> 00:33:00,360
965 be expecting that to occur, we could see 12 800, something like that, if we get
966 any momentum below 12,800 or going below 10,000. In fact occurs, we're going to
967
968 195
969 00:33:00,360 ~-~-> 00:33:10,740
970 be looking for 8300. And if it goes below that it will be 5000 to 6000. And
971 anything less than that will be just Armageddon. So that's what I'd be expecting
972
973 196
974 00:33:10,740 ~-~-> 00:33:23,010
975 now what changes this whole scenario, it would need to trade back above the
976 midpoint of this consolidation or trade basically back above 15,100. Okay, so
977
978 197
979 00:33:23,040 ~-~-> 00:33:38,100
980 anything less than 15,100 we're bearish on Bitcoin. Okay. So I kind of like one
981 of the use this as a segue into welcoming the new crypto community that's
982
983 198
984 00:33:38,100 ~-~-> 00:33:51,420
985 building in my reader base. So I don't promise to give you a whole lot of crypto
986 based ideas. But I have seen enough to know this. Everything that I teach that
987
988 199
989 00:33:51,420 ~-~-> 00:34:04,770
990 is selling to forex, is working in crypto, the ICT kill zones, the London New
991 York, plumbing, close, Asia, all those things are still working as they would be
992
993 200
994 00:34:04,770 ~-~-> 00:34:15,810
995 expected. In crypto. A lot of my higher learning things also are working as well
996 that would be taught in my mentorship. So if you have a lot of time, and you go
997
998 201
999 00:34:15,810 ~-~-> 00:34:25,080
1000 through all my tutorials that can be found on my website, the answer trader.com.
1001 Again, the forum is free, you can join it'll cost you nothing. It's community
1002
1003 202
1004 00:34:25,110 ~-~-> 00:34:35,400
1005 that we're building. I only request this as Be respectful because if anyone is
1006 unruly in there or starts to troll, and they report that to me, I will disable
1007
1008 203
1009 00:34:35,400 ~-~-> 00:34:44,490
1010 your ISP so that way you won't be a member of the forum anymore. You're welcome
1011 to discuss and encourage each other with opportunities you may be seeking using
1012
1013 204
1014 00:34:44,490 ~-~-> 00:34:54,300
1015 my concepts. I am really on the sidelines, even though it seems like I'm always
1016 doing something on Twitter. I'm away from the markets generally until like the
1017
1018 205
1019 00:34:54,300 ~-~-> 00:35:04,140
1020 third week of January every year. I usually take the week before Thanksgiving
1021 off until The third week of January. And it's probably going to be closer to
1022
1023 206
1024 00:35:04,470 ~-~-> 00:35:15,780
1025 February. Before I actually do anything this year, because I spent the last 15
1026 months with a group of traders in my first mentorship class. So it took a lot of
1027
1028 207
1029 00:35:15,780 ~-~-> 00:35:26,370
1030 STEAM Academy. So I will be opening that mentorship up again in January 2018. So
1031 if you want to go through the higher level learning stuff and be a part of a
1032
1033 208
1034 00:35:26,820 ~-~-> 00:35:40,080
1035 ongoing education group, it's $150 payable to me by way of PayPal, and that link
1036 and all that information will be shared tomorrow for those individuals that were
1037
1038 209
1039 00:35:40,080 ~-~-> 00:35:48,630
1040 signed up on the mailing list. And if you can't do it right now, and it's closer
1041 to February for you, then that's fine, because it's open enrollment every single
1042
1043 210
1044 00:35:48,630 ~-~-> 00:35:48,960
1045 month.
1046
1047 211
1048 00:35:50,670 ~-~-> 00:36:01,170
1049 There's no there's no closing. There's no end, okay, so when you subscribe to
1050 it, you pay 12 months, and $150. And you get 12 specific modules that goes
1051
1052 212
1053 00:36:01,170 ~-~-> 00:36:12,570
1054 through all of my core content. But that is not the mentorship. The mentorship
1055 is an ongoing learning experience. And I have 25 years of experience of looking
1056
1057 213
1058 00:36:12,570 ~-~-> 00:36:21,210
1059 at price studying price, knowing certain things, subtle nuances that my free
1060 tutorials will not ever have in them. So it's kind of like a private private
1061
1062 214
1063 00:36:21,210 ~-~-> 00:36:28,320
1064 community. Okay, well, we have a community, it's in my free forum. The
1065 mentorship group is things that I'll teach that I'm never going to make public,
1066
1067 215
1068 00:36:28,320 ~-~-> 00:36:35,880
1069 not on YouTube, not in Twitter, and none of that stuff. And I haven't taught
1070 everything yet. So there's so much information, I just can't do it in 12 months.
1071
1072 216
1073 00:36:35,910 ~-~-> 00:36:45,270
1074 So if that interests you, you're certainly welcome to do that after you pay 12
1075 months, you never pay any more ever again. The total cost is 18 $100. US dollars
1076
1077 217
1078 00:36:45,690 ~-~-> 00:36:53,430
1079 payable in 12. installment payments, if you do quit, you are not permitted to
1080 rejoin. So if you're going to consider doing it, make the commitment to do the
1081
1082 218
1083 00:36:53,430 ~-~-> 00:37:03,570
1084 entire thing. And understand there's no refunds, there's an NDA, you can't teach
1085 the material, you can't tweet about the things that's called a mentorship that
1086
1087 219
1088 00:37:03,570 ~-~-> 00:37:12,330
1089 it would remove you from the group. I have removed individuals from it already.
1090 And they have paid me but they also understood and sign the terms of use in
1091
1092 220
1093 00:37:12,330 ~-~-> 00:37:23,190
1094 these agreements are long standing, they don't end. So as long as I'm operating
1095 as a mentorship, those terms of use will be there. And I don't plan on going out
1096
1097 221
1098 00:37:23,190 ~-~-> 00:37:36,600
1099 of business anytime soon. or stopping. So it's up to you decide what you want to
1100 do. But I just felt that it was a an interesting study on my personal time using
1101
1102 222
1103 00:37:36,870 ~-~-> 00:37:47,250
1104 my concepts and crypto, we've had a lot of positive feedback with the tools and
1105 concepts. So I can see why everyone is excited about using what I teach in
1106
1107 223
1108 00:37:47,250 ~-~-> 00:37:57,060
1109 forex, and futures and stocks and all that index trading all those things have
1110 elements that repeat themselves over and over again. But everything that I teach
1111
1112 224
1113 00:37:57,090 ~-~-> 00:38:06,630
1114 with forex, everything that I've done thus far and made public either by way of
1115 free tutorials and even in my mentorship, the content it's been delivered so far
1116
1117 225
1118 00:38:06,630 ~-~-> 00:38:20,700
1119 in that group. Everything works in crypto. So to me these markets are being made
1120 by banks. Okay, I know that the crypto community is like, you guys are like
1121
1122 226
1123 00:38:20,730 ~-~-> 00:38:29,970
1124 insanely faithful and committed to the cause. And you don't want anything said
1125 negative about it. And I'm not saying anything negative. Except for the fact
1126
1127 227
1128 00:38:29,970 ~-~-> 00:38:38,670
1129 that when I was 18,000 anybody buying up there was stupid, okay, and you can see
1130 the the cause and effect of all that stuff. Now. All I was relying on is the
1131
1132 228
1133 00:38:38,670 ~-~-> 00:38:47,610
1134 simple fact of understanding the markets understanding human psychology, and the
1135 fact that everybody has a buyer, and it has to reset, it has to go back lower.
1136
1137 229
1138 00:38:47,640 ~-~-> 00:38:57,120
1139 Why? Because it's designed to do that. It's designed for people not to make
1140 money. You think this is here. This is all for your benefit. It's actually not
1141
1142 230
1143 00:38:57,630 ~-~-> 00:39:06,240
1144 it's not it's a casino does anything else. Wall Street's a casino, the Forex
1145 markets a casino, and it's fine. It's okay for you to admit that it's rigged.
1146
1147 231
1148 00:39:06,360 ~-~-> 00:39:14,580
1149 Because when you understand how it's rigged, you have a advantage. You have a
1150 greater understanding what they're doing. So that way you're not led to
1151
1152 232
1153 00:39:14,580 ~-~-> 00:39:23,730
1154 slaughter. Okay, you understand what you're doing with the masses, and you can
1155 stay outside the herd. Okay, the herd is what gets fleeced the herd is what gets
1156
1157 233
1158 00:39:23,730 ~-~-> 00:39:32,400
1159 sent to the slaughter. That rogue okay animal that stays outside the herd. Okay,
1160 generally they're the predators. And that's what you can become you can be a
1161
1162 234
1163 00:39:32,400 ~-~-> 00:39:44,220
1164 predator, looking at price action and picking your spots, being a part of moves
1165 and then moving to the sidelines. I am not a proponent of hold on for dear life.
1166
1167 235
1168 00:39:44,250 ~-~-> 00:39:55,110
1169 I think that you know, these markets are gonna be moving around. They should be
1170 traded. Okay, yeah. How many times you're going to sit through you 9000 plus
1171
1172 236
1173 00:39:55,320 ~-~-> 00:40:06,180
1174 point slide, especially the individual that we're buying it like 15,000 and
1175 above. You've watched it go up, and now you're underwater. So, to me, that's not
1176
1177 237
1178 00:40:06,180 ~-~-> 00:40:16,020
1179 trading, that's gambling and hoping and praying. And I don't like to do that. So
1180 hopefully I've been, at least to some degree encouraging to the crypto community
1181
1182 238
1183 00:40:16,020 ~-~-> 00:40:25,170
1184 letting them know that you guys finally convinced me to look at it. Now I'm
1185 looking at it and I see some positive things. So are we without going lower from
1186
1187 239
1188 00:40:25,170 ~-~-> 00:40:33,090
1189 here? I think it's healthier for Bitcoin to drop. I think if it's going to go
1190 higher, longer term, it needs to wash out every one of you hold on for dear
1191
1192 240
1193 00:40:33,090 ~-~-> 00:40:41,700
1194 lifers, okay, because you if you sell it, that provides their liquidity to buy
1195 it. And the banks are really, really interested in these things. So
1196
1197 241
1198 00:40:42,750 ~-~-> 00:40:53,100
1199 think about it, like in 2000, when the stock markets crashed, okay, you know, we
1200 went lower it Well, everyone was, it's the end of the world, but look at it now.
1201
1202 242
1203 00:40:53,490 ~-~-> 00:41:03,690
1204 So we may be seeing the very same things occurring, just 10 and 20 years away,
1205 where people can look back and say, Wow, you know, we were doing things that
1206
1207 243
1208 00:41:03,690 ~-~-> 00:41:14,640
1209 were entirely brand new. And we got in real well, and even though this is kind
1210 of inflated, in terms of the pricing, if it goes below 10,000, I think that you
1211
1212 244
1213 00:41:14,640 ~-~-> 00:41:23,250
1214 know, if you have a means to do so I might entertain the idea of putting
1215 something on for a longer term and start, you know, building in positions down
1216
1217 245
1218 00:41:23,250 ~-~-> 00:41:33,780
1219 here. And as it goes higher, you do some of that stuff with the expectation of
1220 10 to 20 years out, but not like you buying on the highs, like a lot of folks
1221
1222 246
1223 00:41:33,780 ~-~-> 00:41:40,860
1224 have been doing because they tell their brother, their cousin, you know,
1225 someone's talked about something, they shared a video or whatever. If it's been
1226
1227 247
1228 00:41:40,860 ~-~-> 00:41:49,740
1229 running up, I don't like to do that. I like to be buying it when it's dropping
1230 and has been dropping for a while. I I want to buy when it's going down and I
1231
1232 248
1233 00:41:49,740 ~-~-> 00:41:59,850
1234 want to sell as it's going higher. That's just the way banks trade. Okay, so if
1235 the banks have to do that same measure of entering and exiting, scaling in and
1236
1237 249
1238 00:41:59,850 ~-~-> 00:42:09,300
1239 scaling out, that's the mode of operation, I'm going to work with this as well.
1240 And kryptos proven to me that it's no exception in that regard. So very
1241
1242 250
1243 00:42:09,300 ~-~-> 00:42:18,900
1244 encouraging. Very, very encouraging. Do I regret anything? No, because I didn't
1245 trust the asset class. And it wasn't until I had family member actually get into
1246
1247 251
1248 00:42:18,900 ~-~-> 00:42:30,570
1249 it, which is my nephew, J for watching Hello. The the movements that he was
1250 showing me even though he doesn't have any idea what he's doing, he just went in
1251
1252 252
1253 00:42:30,570 ~-~-> 00:42:39,180
1254 there and just bought it based on his, I guess he bought into the hype, everyone
1255 else was doing it too. And fortunately enough, he was in at a time where it
1256
1257 253
1258 00:42:39,180 ~-~-> 00:42:47,520
1259 allowed him to make money. So he's still in a position of profit. But I
1260 personally have been preaching to them, take your profit, take your profit, take
1261
1262 254
1263 00:42:47,520 ~-~-> 00:42:57,000
1264 your profit and look for a better opportunity to buy in and get a core base of
1265 liquidity to work off of with a lower price not with what you got. So he hasn't
1266
1267 255
1268 00:42:57,000 ~-~-> 00:43:07,770
1269 listened to so far and he may never listen to me. But ultimately, between there
1270 in the community that I've been a part of, and had been building for a number of
1271
1272 256
1273 00:43:07,890 ~-~-> 00:43:20,400
1274 years online. They have finally got my attention in terms of crypto so there's
1275 another kid on the block in the crypto community and it's things ICT if you
1276
1277 257
1278 00:43:20,400 ~-~-> 00:43:24,330
1279 enjoyed this presentation, you can find more at the inner circle trader.com