Skip to Content

ICT YT - 2025-09-26 - Focus On Index Futures September 25 2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:17
1 00:00:02 --> 00:00:07 ICT: Hey folks, welcome back September 25 2025 this is the focus on index
2 00:00:07 --> 00:00:14 futures. We're focusing on Christmas and Q E Mini futures, NASDAQ E Mini futures.
3 00:00:14 --> 00:00:22 So let's take a quick look at what we have here today. All right. So today is
4 00:00:23 --> 00:00:28 Thursday, daily chart on left, one minute chart on the right. So we have
5 00:00:28 --> 00:00:34 this premium wick highlighted with these gradient levels. We have a buy side and
6 00:00:34 --> 00:00:38 balance cell sign, efficiency, fair value gap with the gradient levels added
7 00:00:38 --> 00:00:47 to it as well. Then we have a y side imbalance, sell side efficiency, busy,
8 00:00:47 --> 00:00:53 fair value got there as well. And then we have a discount wick with gradient
9 00:00:53 --> 00:01:00 levels on it. So as I mentioned on this day here that we were entering a time
10 00:01:00 --> 00:01:05 when an intermediate term high should form in NASDAQ, and I think by anyone's
11 00:01:05 --> 00:01:10 standard, that would be considered an intermediate term high I call on the
12 00:01:10 --> 00:01:15 top. I'm not trying to get overzealous or anything, but that's how formidable
13 00:01:16 --> 00:01:20 you are. Once you understand how to read the tape, read price, action, without
14 00:01:20 --> 00:01:26 overflow, stuff without level two data, without any other stuff. Now you can use
15 00:01:26 --> 00:01:32 it if you think it helps you Okay, so if you, if you've been consistent, and
16 00:01:32 --> 00:01:36 you're able to find profitability using that stuff, and you want to believe and
17 00:01:36 --> 00:01:40 place your faith in that religion, then wonderful. That means that you're giving
18 00:01:40 --> 00:01:46 yourself the cheerleading aspects that you need to do as a trader. But if you
19 00:01:46 --> 00:01:51 don't have any subscription to that, there's no need to reach for it, because
20 00:01:51 --> 00:01:55 there's really no advantage at all. I didn't use any of it when I was
21 00:01:55 --> 00:02:00 outlining this market this week and last week, and I'm right on the tick. So this
22 00:02:00 --> 00:02:09 goes to show you, don't need all that stuff. That stuff here, regular trading
23 00:02:09 --> 00:02:14 hours, 930 starting, okay, the market breaks down. I have a fair value gap
24 00:02:14 --> 00:02:18 there. We'll look at that in a moment. L a fair value gap there. Small
25 00:02:18 --> 00:02:22 consolidation and drops down into the blue positive balance, cell sign,
26 00:02:22 --> 00:02:30 efficiency, fair value. Got this line here, 24,004 37 even is this level here,
27 00:02:31 --> 00:02:39 which is the upper quadrant of this discount wick? See that? So it's also
28 00:02:39 --> 00:02:43 very close in proximity to what would be the lower quadrant, but it doesn't quite
29 00:02:43 --> 00:02:46 get there. So if you put your fib on, you'll see that it doesn't quite get to
30 00:02:46 --> 00:02:50 it, but it got real real close to it. So if you're grading the fair value gap
31 00:02:50 --> 00:02:54 itself from this candle is low and this candle is high, you would see that it
32 00:02:55 --> 00:02:59 just got real close but did not trade to it, but the upper quadrant of the
33 00:02:59 --> 00:03:05 discount wick. It did So which one's going to be easier to get to this one.
34 00:03:06 --> 00:03:11 Okay, and price did, in fact, trade down into it. Here comes back up trades to
35 00:03:12 --> 00:03:21 the high of that. Discount wick at 24,005, 02, you see that here. It trades
36 00:03:21 --> 00:03:26 back down to the upper quadrant of the discount wick, that level right here,
37 00:03:26 --> 00:03:36 this wick and price starts to rally. Okay, I mentioned how we would see the
38 00:03:36 --> 00:03:41 likelihood of reaching into fair value gaps and discount Wix and premium wicks
39 00:03:41 --> 00:03:49 and grading them a week ago. Okay? And that's really, technically what last
40 00:03:49 --> 00:03:54 Tuesday says more than a week ago. But we can see the reactions off of these
41 00:03:54 --> 00:04:00 levels here, which is not a pivot point. It's not any kind of retail logic. It's
42 00:04:00 --> 00:04:05 not classic support and resistance, okay, but it allows you to look at wicks
43 00:04:05 --> 00:04:10 in the same vein as I do with inefficiencies and or gaps. So the
44 00:04:10 --> 00:04:15 market rallies up, trades back inside the green, buy side and balance, sell
45 00:04:15 --> 00:04:22 side, efficiency and trades up to the lower quadrant of it here at 24,005 78,
46 00:04:22 --> 00:04:27 78 and then to consequent encouragement, upper quadrant. And all the way, look at
47 00:04:27 --> 00:04:31 the body, respecting the perfect delivery of that clothes is right on the
48 00:04:32 --> 00:04:39 24,006 55 high of that bullish fair value got right there. Which of that
49 00:04:39 --> 00:04:45 candles low? That's beautiful, and then it drops back down just below consequent
50 00:04:45 --> 00:04:49 encroachment, one more time, hammers the upper level of that fair value gap on
51 00:04:49 --> 00:04:55 the daily chart, once more trades lower, immediate rebalance here and rallies up
52 00:04:55 --> 00:05:03 first. Present the fair value gap you can see. 80 forms here. Here's 930 and
53 00:05:03 --> 00:05:09 the first inefficiency is there? Okay, so nice displacement, very obvious, and
54 00:05:09 --> 00:05:13 it's a sell side imbalanced buy side efficiency. So when I annotate its first
55 00:05:13 --> 00:05:16 potential fair value gap in the form of a bearish fair value gap, why? Because
56 00:05:16 --> 00:05:21 it's a down closed candle. Trades up into it here, just fall short of
57 00:05:21 --> 00:05:26 consequent encroachment breaks lower institutional order flow entry drill,
58 00:05:26 --> 00:05:30 and let's extend that first present to fair value gap. You can see that we have
59 00:05:30 --> 00:05:34 an order block down here to bullish change the state of delivery after it
60 00:05:34 --> 00:05:42 trades into that upper quadrant of that discount wick here. There it is on the
61 00:05:42 --> 00:05:46 one minute chart. It retrades back down to that order block there. The body's
62 00:05:46 --> 00:05:50 respecting it sends it higher institutional order flow entry drill
63 00:05:50 --> 00:05:57 here and now, because price trades above the first presented fair value I got,
64 00:05:57 --> 00:06:00 and we're trading consequent encouragement. It's a sippy at first, so
65 00:06:00 --> 00:06:07 it's going to change its character to what now it's a bullish scenario. So we
66 00:06:07 --> 00:06:11 would look for this to act as what discount sensitivity, if it's going to
67 00:06:11 --> 00:06:14 trade down the consequent encroachment, it should not trade to the lower half.
68 00:06:14 --> 00:06:18 It does, in fact, the very thing here. So that's the logic I've been teaching
69 00:06:18 --> 00:06:23 you. Rallies up, creates a positive balance outside efficiency in here. So
70 00:06:23 --> 00:06:28 it's another bull, bullish fair value gap leads a small portion open, rallies
71 00:06:28 --> 00:06:31 up, and does all the business we talked about here. But now we'll put the
72 00:06:31 --> 00:06:35 gradient levels on there, and you can see how it was respecting a lot of those
73 00:06:35 --> 00:06:39 levels as well. And we're going to need to take that fair value gap, extend it
74 00:06:39 --> 00:06:43 forward, so that way we can keep track of what we're referencing when I move
75 00:06:43 --> 00:06:50 forward in time, the first business very, very tongue twister, the first
76 00:06:50 --> 00:06:58 presented fair value gap resumes being a bearish fair value gap once we trade
77 00:06:58 --> 00:07:02 down below, and It's the Costco encroachment and breaks outside of it.
78 00:07:02 --> 00:07:06 That means it's likely to trade lower. Where does it trade? To inversion, fair
79 00:07:06 --> 00:07:10 value gap inside this low we have an older block, which is these two
80 00:07:10 --> 00:07:15 consecutively on closed candles, and then we have the little gap right there
81 00:07:15 --> 00:07:19 extended through the candle. That's why we're not supplying demand, and the
82 00:07:19 --> 00:07:24 bodies respect that beautiful delivery and sends it right back up into the
83 00:07:24 --> 00:07:31 upper fair value gap here. This gap, when it was formed, was a busy so it was
84 00:07:31 --> 00:07:36 an up close candle fair value gap. That means it's likely to be bullish. You can
85 00:07:36 --> 00:07:41 see it being utilized here. But when we trade down through it and come back up
86 00:07:41 --> 00:07:44 and then fall back down through it again. The upper half needs to be
87 00:07:45 --> 00:07:49 disregarded, in other words, only sensitivity at the consequent
88 00:07:49 --> 00:07:54 encroachment level or below it. And we can see that being shown here, and then
89 00:07:54 --> 00:07:57 it's stacked right on top of first percent of fair breakout now resuming
90 00:07:57 --> 00:08:04 its bearish initial creation with the city down close candle. So now it trades
91 00:08:04 --> 00:08:07 out the consequent encroachment there breaks lower, hits the 24,005
92 00:08:13 --> 00:08:20 53 level breaks aggressively lower, internet inversion, fair value gap. And
93 00:08:20 --> 00:08:24 then look at the strong reaction off of that. Look at that. So we're going to
94 00:08:24 --> 00:08:29 scroll forward. There's that inversion, parabolic gap. It rallies up now the
95 00:08:29 --> 00:08:33 first visited fair value gap changes character once more. The bodies are
96 00:08:33 --> 00:08:37 respecting consequent encroachment. The wicks are allowed to do the damage.
97 00:08:37 --> 00:08:43 Comes back up, hits it here, rallies up upper quadrant of the previous fair
98 00:08:43 --> 00:08:48 value gap that was above first, but it's fair value gap and trades up into the
99 00:08:48 --> 00:08:55 upper quadrant of the fair value gap over here at 24,006 29 and a half,
100 00:08:55 --> 00:08:59 that's what we're seeing here, back down to bullish fair value gap and
101 00:08:59 --> 00:09:03 consolidates into the close. So I tried to keep the annotations in the PD
102 00:09:03 --> 00:09:09 arrays, kind of like short and sweet, and focusing on the relationships of the
103 00:09:09 --> 00:09:12 first person, the fairy value gap and the other fair value gaps, how they
104 00:09:12 --> 00:09:17 changed their characteristic intraday. So as the ebb and flow of price delivery
105 00:09:17 --> 00:09:24 above and below these fair value gaps, it allows you to switch your short term
106 00:09:24 --> 00:09:29 bias to where the next pool of liquidity would reach for or the next inefficiency
107 00:09:29 --> 00:09:36 above or below, but having the understanding of when these form and how
108 00:09:36 --> 00:09:41 you're looking for price to draw to very specific levels, it helps build your
109 00:09:41 --> 00:09:46 tape reading repertoire so it gives you skill set that will increase over time.
110 00:09:47 --> 00:09:50 You can't do it, you know, as much as you want to learn how to do it real
111 00:09:50 --> 00:09:56 quick and be very efficient at it. My best advice, and I get this question a
112 00:09:56 --> 00:10:00 lot in email, and I get it in comments that I don't approve on. The channel,
113 00:10:00 --> 00:10:06 because I basically hold a lot of the commentary and I guess post by the
114 00:10:06 --> 00:10:09 people, because there's a lot of these weird crypto like, there's a lot of
115 00:10:09 --> 00:10:13 crypto stuff being posted, and I don't want to go in there and have to clean
116 00:10:13 --> 00:10:16 all that stuff out after it's been posted. So it's easier for me just I
117 00:10:16 --> 00:10:19 read all your comments, but I'm not going to authorize them to go to the
118 00:10:19 --> 00:10:24 channel, because this is something I just don't want to be babysitting. So
119 00:10:24 --> 00:10:27 there that there are comments allowed on certain videos, and honestly, I don't
120 00:10:27 --> 00:10:32 keep up with which ones they are. But anything you send to me, even though you
121 00:10:32 --> 00:10:35 don't see it, you think you see it on on the channel, but nobody else can see it,
122 00:10:35 --> 00:10:38 I still read it. So I appreciate all your sentiment. Thank you for all your
123 00:10:38 --> 00:10:44 very kind, very kind remarks in regarding to my loss of my older boxer,
124 00:10:44 --> 00:10:49 Bailey, and also the the work I'm putting in here, and I appreciate that.
125 00:10:49 --> 00:10:55 I'm thankful for that. But in closing, I want you to think about how we dove down
126 00:10:55 --> 00:11:00 pretty deep into this fair value gap, and tomorrow's Friday, so the range of
127 00:11:00 --> 00:11:06 Thursday was pretty significant. So in my opinion, I would keep my expectations
128 00:11:06 --> 00:11:12 very low for tomorrow, because it's already done enough. You know if, if all
129 00:11:12 --> 00:11:17 we had to do was anticipate what we anticipated this week for NASDAQ, and it
130 00:11:17 --> 00:11:22 delivered like this, whatever it did on Friday, tomorrow's trading. Who cares?
131 00:11:22 --> 00:11:26 You know, it doesn't make a difference, because this was such a wonderful
132 00:11:26 --> 00:11:30 display of prowess, being able to understand what the market should and
133 00:11:30 --> 00:11:34 shouldn't do, and the sensitivity and precision of the concepts I'm sharing
134 00:11:34 --> 00:11:38 with you. So hopefully you found this insightful. I'm probably going to have,
135 00:11:38 --> 00:11:43 obviously, a review tomorrow evening, but there won't be an extra recording
136 00:11:43 --> 00:11:48 over the weekends. I need my Saturday and Sunday time to just kind of ground
137 00:11:48 --> 00:11:53 again, and we'll be back at it again on Monday. So I guess enjoy your weekend.
138 00:11:53 --> 00:11:57 And for those who want to see the Forex stuff, I'm going to finish this one up,
139 00:11:57 --> 00:12:01 and then a couple minutes after I finish it, I'll grab something to drink real
140 00:12:01 --> 00:12:03 quick, and then I'll do the Forex review. I'll
141 00:12:13 --> 00:12:16 talk to you next time. I wish you good luck and good trading.