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ICT YT - 2025-09-24 - Focus On Index Futures - Intermediate Term High September 23 2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:16
1 00:00:07 --> 00:00:13 ICT: Back folks, where we looking at the focus on index futures. I'm not going to
2 00:00:13 --> 00:00:19 do the forex and Dollar Index. It's pretty much crummy technical day Dollar
3 00:00:19 --> 00:00:26 Index pulled back into that inner middle of the version. Provide you cap, as I
4 00:00:26 --> 00:00:30 was indicating last night, and just hanging around there. So we'll see if it
5 00:00:30 --> 00:00:36 gives up, the goes there, or it finds some discount sensitivity there. So
6 00:00:36 --> 00:00:42 we're playing it by ear, at least that's what I'm doing. September 23 2025 for
7 00:00:42 --> 00:00:46 focus on the next futures. And this is December contract, Christmas, NQ
8 00:00:47 --> 00:00:48 nasdaqi, mini futures.
9 00:00:53 --> 00:00:59 If you recall last night, I mentioned that we were near a intermediate term
10 00:00:59 --> 00:01:04 high here, I want to kind of teach that tonight, as to, you know what led me to
11 00:01:04 --> 00:01:09 believe that it was going to do this today? So we had this nice volume
12 00:01:09 --> 00:01:13 imbalance I mentioned when we were trading back here and trading down to
13 00:01:13 --> 00:01:17 that made the low rejected off of that. And then it started going parabolic,
14 00:01:17 --> 00:01:24 going straight up, covering a lot of ground. And one of the, I guess the
15 00:01:24 --> 00:01:31 easiest way to describe it is when it's breaking out to all new, all time highs,
16 00:01:31 --> 00:01:37 and it's doing it in a lot of strength, leaving inefficiencies open, not coming
17 00:01:37 --> 00:01:45 back down into the volume and balance here, it just keeps powering higher. And
18 00:01:45 --> 00:01:49 if it feels like if you were a brand new trader, you would just chase that going
19 00:01:49 --> 00:01:55 long any anywhere during the day. That's usually indicative of when a blow off
20 00:01:55 --> 00:02:01 type move or a intermediate term high is likely to form, because the public
21 00:02:01 --> 00:02:05 seeing this, okay, when Street Money sees these types of tearing higher in
22 00:02:05 --> 00:02:09 price, they just want to accumulate whatever long position they can and just
23 00:02:09 --> 00:02:14 hold on to it and think they can make a lot of money off of it. So we're gonna
24 00:02:14 --> 00:02:17 take a look at the one minute chart, because that's what the intermediate
25 00:02:17 --> 00:02:21 term high is going to form. We're using the daily chart for bias and direction
26 00:02:21 --> 00:02:27 and key sensitive levels, but the structure is inside of the intraday
27 00:02:27 --> 00:02:30 chart, and since I'm taking you into the one minute chart on and Q all the time,
28 00:02:31 --> 00:02:37 we're going to be looking at this overall market structure here, once you
29 00:02:38 --> 00:02:43 take advantage of Having these levels on your chart, not just on my visual
30 00:02:43 --> 00:02:49 representations here. So put your quadrant levels on this premium wick,
31 00:02:50 --> 00:03:00 and note the levels in here and now just showing the upper quadrant and the
32 00:03:00 --> 00:03:05 consequent encroachment of this premium wick. So I did not highlight the high.
33 00:03:05 --> 00:03:10 Did not highlight the lower quadrant or the low of that premium wick. You can
34 00:03:10 --> 00:03:15 see that being showcased down here. So we have cell solid liquidity, relative
35 00:03:15 --> 00:03:19 equal lows. And as I mentioned, that's my intermediate term high. So if it's
36 00:03:19 --> 00:03:23 going to be an intermediate term high, what could it likely draw down into on
37 00:03:23 --> 00:03:28 that premium wick here? Okay, now classic support resistance would say,
38 00:03:29 --> 00:03:33 just take that old high, draw that out in time. And when it trades down there,
39 00:03:33 --> 00:03:39 it should bounce. It didn't do that. Did it? So we want to look inside these
40 00:03:39 --> 00:03:43 inefficiencies, because they're just like gaps, and by having the upper
41 00:03:43 --> 00:03:47 quadrant and consequent encroachment, which defines whether or not this is
42 00:03:47 --> 00:03:53 going to be a attenuation of a deeper retracement, or if it's just coming back
43 00:03:53 --> 00:03:58 down in here to consolidate and send it even higher. So we're going to take a
44 00:03:58 --> 00:04:05 look at a question that you might have. So where is the intermediate term high
45 00:04:05 --> 00:04:11 once you take a look at the chart, pause the video I've done in this past, and a
46 00:04:11 --> 00:04:14 lot of times, many of you just go real quickly through it. You don't take
47 00:04:14 --> 00:04:18 advantage of the opportunity to try to study it. So pause the video and take a
48 00:04:18 --> 00:04:21 look at what you might think the intermediate term high is on this time
49 00:04:21 --> 00:04:23 frame the one minute chart.
50 00:04:28 --> 00:04:33 Right for those that didn't want to pause, you missed the opportunity,
51 00:04:34 --> 00:04:38 there's your intermediate term high. Okay, so I'm going to zoom in a little
52 00:04:38 --> 00:04:45 bit and scroll over to the right side of the chart, and that same high is here.
53 00:04:45 --> 00:04:51 So we have a high, a lower high and a lower high, and as a smaller little
54 00:04:51 --> 00:04:58 high, here and here and here and here. So using what I learned from Larry
55 00:04:58 --> 00:05:03 Williams and. This is his market structure application. It's very
56 00:05:03 --> 00:05:12 simplistic. It's very easy, it's visual. I would admit that there is some measure
57 00:05:12 --> 00:05:17 of subjectivity to it, but over time and experience, you'll you'll see how they
58 00:05:17 --> 00:05:23 use the right swing highs and swing lows. And I'll kind of like Mark this
59 00:05:23 --> 00:05:27 out with you, to kind of draw the narrative on what I see here, what I saw
60 00:05:27 --> 00:05:37 today. So we had high, low, high, lower, low, and that high there. So these are
61 00:05:38 --> 00:05:42 short term highs, intermittent high, intermediate term high is any high that
62 00:05:42 --> 00:05:48 has two lower short term highs to the right, left of it. We also have it in
63 00:05:48 --> 00:05:53 those smaller scale here, because it's fractal. But now when this price leg
64 00:05:53 --> 00:05:57 starts to break lower and takes out these relative equal lows when I'm
65 00:05:57 --> 00:06:01 looking for enemy term high, as I indicated I was last night, this is a
66 00:06:01 --> 00:06:06 shift in market structure. So the market goes up into this consolidation right
67 00:06:06 --> 00:06:12 before the 930 opening. So it creates this, like real smooth edge. And it's
68 00:06:12 --> 00:06:17 tricky, because you might expect it to run up there and wipe out the buy side
69 00:06:17 --> 00:06:22 and then break lower. You have to wait. You have to wait for it to just tear off
70 00:06:22 --> 00:06:27 and go lower. So we're going to look at all this price action in here. Zoom in.
71 00:06:29 --> 00:06:33 Here's that enemy term high, and here's those relative equal highs. And look how
72 00:06:33 --> 00:06:38 the market was just stabbing up air, very volatile, just punching up air,
73 00:06:38 --> 00:06:42 punching up air, punching up air, and then ripping lower, tearing off into
74 00:06:42 --> 00:06:46 that sell side liquidity pool there, and then creating the first presenter fair
75 00:06:46 --> 00:06:50 value cut, which we'll look at in a moment. We're going to scroll forward in
76 00:06:50 --> 00:06:56 time. So here's those relative equal highs, and the market breaks lower,
77 00:06:59 --> 00:07:06 creates a little bit of an imbalance in here. Now you might look at this small
78 00:07:06 --> 00:07:11 little gap right there and call that your first presenter fair value gap. And
79 00:07:11 --> 00:07:18 if you did, there's nothing wrong with that. Okay, but I like to use the more
80 00:07:18 --> 00:07:26 pronounced, the obvious displacement one here. Okay, so while I'm showing you
81 00:07:26 --> 00:07:30 this, don't be discouraged if you see this small little section, because I
82 00:07:31 --> 00:07:37 told you it can be one tick, but I'm going to be more likely to pick a
83 00:07:38 --> 00:07:43 inefficiency that's much more protracted. In other words, it's it's
84 00:07:43 --> 00:07:48 done more of a displacement in my direction being lower, I want to see it
85 00:07:48 --> 00:07:52 be, you know, very strong, like it's shown here. So this is how I've
86 00:07:52 --> 00:07:57 classified my first sense of fair value cap. Today, the market breaks lower
87 00:07:57 --> 00:08:01 after touching into it. Here, bodies respecting it creates relative equal
88 00:08:01 --> 00:08:05 highs when it trades down here, consolidates, digs right back up into
89 00:08:05 --> 00:08:10 that first participatory backup, and the buy sides taken here breaks one more
90 00:08:10 --> 00:08:14 time, leaves these relative equal highs, comes right back up into first Pacific,
91 00:08:14 --> 00:08:20 right back up and breaks lower, and then breaks below this low as well. And we're
92 00:08:20 --> 00:08:24 going to see going to see going forward now we're going to jump a little bit
93 00:08:24 --> 00:08:29 more in the future of the day in the chart now, after the sell side is
94 00:08:29 --> 00:08:35 annotated. So now we can have our reference point here. So those two suit
95 00:08:35 --> 00:08:39 lungs rather as well, just showcasing and the market breaks slower comes back
96 00:08:39 --> 00:08:46 up into another reclaimed fair value gap there, and the market creates relative
97 00:08:46 --> 00:08:50 equal lows again, trades right back up into the reclaimed fair value gap breaks
98 00:08:51 --> 00:08:55 low, relative equal lows in the old sell side of the coding pool and trades up
99 00:08:55 --> 00:09:01 into a bearish fair value gap breaks Lower. Consecutive of closed candles is
100 00:09:01 --> 00:09:06 your bearish order block and change the state of delivery at that candles open,
101 00:09:06 --> 00:09:14 it accumulates more shorts by Smart Money breaks lower again, bearish order
102 00:09:14 --> 00:09:19 block change in state delivery. Smart Money would accumulate new shorts in
103 00:09:19 --> 00:09:24 there, adding same thing on this up close candle, bearish order, block,
104 00:09:24 --> 00:09:28 change in state, delivery trades up into it. There. Smart Money would be
105 00:09:28 --> 00:09:32 accumulating more shorts, bigger meeting, adding, breaking, lower. Then
106 00:09:32 --> 00:09:36 we have a fair value gap here. It's bearish trade up into it. Notice all
107 00:09:36 --> 00:09:43 this to wicks, just very, very heavy as it's reaching for the upper quadrant of
108 00:09:43 --> 00:09:49 this premium link. The check marker is indicated. It touches down on the daily
109 00:09:49 --> 00:09:55 objective of that upper quadrant. You see that happening here as well. After
110 00:09:55 --> 00:09:58 that, we have a little bit of a bounce up, and there's inefficiency that did
111 00:09:58 --> 00:10:04 not note and. And showing more data, we just hammered it one more time. Let me
112 00:10:04 --> 00:10:08 look at this. This is what you expect to see when you read books about classic
113 00:10:08 --> 00:10:14 support and resistance. This is not classic support and resistance. Okay, so
114 00:10:14 --> 00:10:18 these are my concepts that I've gifted to the community, and you're you're
115 00:10:18 --> 00:10:22 learning more about them and how to utilize them in this portion of my
116 00:10:22 --> 00:10:26 lectures, but the when they're used in concert with what everything else
117 00:10:26 --> 00:10:32 taught, it really gives you an x ray view of what price is likely to rebound
118 00:10:32 --> 00:10:38 off of or draw to. And you can see this, the beautiful respect over here with the
119 00:10:38 --> 00:10:42 bodies. The bodies here, yes, he had errant wicket in here, but the bodies
120 00:10:42 --> 00:10:48 are accumulating around that same quadrant level. And if I'm just pulling
121 00:10:48 --> 00:10:53 back off the lows of the day, hopefully you'll get some more movement in $1
122 00:10:54 --> 00:11:00 index and the forex pairs tomorrow or on Thursday, and I'll resume talking about
123 00:11:00 --> 00:11:04 them, but until it breaks out of where it's at. Now, it's not that I'm worth
124 00:11:04 --> 00:11:08 spending any time, you know, doing anything with it, so I'll keep my focus
125 00:11:08 --> 00:11:13 on the NASDAQ for now, and I appreciate all the very kind sentiments you are all
126 00:11:13 --> 00:11:21 sending me by x and on my comments on the video or an email, I don't have time
127 00:11:21 --> 00:11:25 to reply to everybody, so I'm just going to blanket respond to all of you. I am
128 00:11:25 --> 00:11:30 very thankful, and I appreciate it. I know a lot of you don't look at dogs as
129 00:11:30 --> 00:11:36 anything else that particular, but I am a pet lover. I'm a dog dad, and I've
130 00:11:36 --> 00:11:42 looked at her like like one of my kids, and it's very hurtful to see that she's
131 00:11:42 --> 00:11:46 not in my home anymore. I had the two little ones here, and they're running
132 00:11:46 --> 00:11:50 around the house, sniffing and looking for and it just feels like there's a big
133 00:11:50 --> 00:11:55 hole punched in my heart right now, and I'm just working through it. So I
134 00:11:55 --> 00:12:00 appreciate it. You.
135 00:12:06 --> 00:12:09 Thank you again for your continued interest, and hopefully you found this
136 00:12:09 --> 00:12:13 one insightful I'll talk to you next time. Wish you good luck and good
137 00:12:13 --> 00:12:14 trading.