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Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:16
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2 |1 |00:00:05 ~-~-> 00:00:12 |ICT: Hello folks, welcome back. So today is September 22 2025 and this is the
3 |2 |00:00:12 ~-~-> 00:00:21 |focus on forex. We're looking at the US dollar fiber or USD and POUND DOLLAR or
4 |3 |00:00:21 ~-~-> 00:00:21 |cable,
5 |4 |00:00:27 ~-~-> 00:00:30 |right? This is the dollar index the daily charts on the left hand side. As I
6 |5 |00:00:30 ~-~-> 00:00:35 |mentioned last week, we traded up into this volume imbalance here, and we
7 |6 |00:00:35 ~-~-> 00:00:40 |traded one more time into that just breached the outside high end of it with
8 |7 |00:00:40 ~-~-> 00:00:44 |the wick daily range, because I mentioned that there would be a
9 |8 |00:00:45 ~-~-> 00:00:51 |likelihood of this down closed candle and this up close candle becoming a
10 |9 |00:00:51 ~-~-> 00:00:57 |inversion fair value gap. So we saw some sensitivity here last Friday, and it may
11 |10 |00:00:57 ~-~-> 00:01:02 |need to come back down and retest that and trade into it now, since it's
12 |11 |00:01:02 ~-~-> 00:01:06 |already responded on the upper quadrant of this city, which we've looked at and
13 |12 |00:01:06 ~-~-> 00:01:13 |anticipated as a inversion period, you got that's bullish, the midpoint of this
14 |13 |00:01:15 ~-~-> 00:01:23 |city here, that red line Here, price needs to only be in the upper half now I
15 |14 |00:01:23 ~-~-> 00:01:27 |can touch the midpoint. It's better that it doesn't and if it starts to resume
16 |15 |00:01:27 ~-~-> 00:01:31 |going higher and attack these relative equal highs after it trades into the
17 |16 |00:01:31 ~-~-> 00:01:36 |inversion Fairbank up on the daily chart, that might be the fuel that's
18 |17 |00:01:36 ~-~-> 00:01:40 |required for it to trade up into, say, this liquidity pool that's next on the
19 |18 |00:01:40 ~-~-> 00:01:45 |daily chart. Overall, we're still inside of a large range, but I'm looking for
20 |19 |00:01:46 ~-~-> 00:01:50 |signs that we've put an intermediate term low in that's kind of like where
21 |20 |00:01:50 ~-~-> 00:01:56 |we're at lot of wartime stuff on the News Front. So it's, it's going to be
22 |21 |00:01:56 ~-~-> 00:02:00 |very knee jerk reactionary type responses in dollar index going forward
23 |22 |00:02:00 ~-~-> 00:02:05 |into the end of the year. So breaking it down on the five minute chart, you can
24 |23 |00:02:05 ~-~-> 00:02:09 |see we worked up in a daily volume imbalance. This red area here is this
25 |24 |00:02:09 ~-~-> 00:02:12 |area on the daily chart to the left. So you see that little, tiny little spike
26 |25 |00:02:12 ~-~-> 00:02:17 |above on the daily chart. That's this here, and crossing over the midnight
27 |26 |00:02:17 ~-~-> 00:02:22 |into today's trading on the 22nd of September, the market breaks down,
28 |27 |00:02:22 ~-~-> 00:02:25 |creates a small, little bearish fair value gap, great and consequent
29 |28 |00:02:25 ~-~-> 00:02:29 |encroachment of that daily volume and balance. Note that I don't have the line
30 |29 |00:02:29 ~-~-> 00:02:33 |on there, because it would be too much in one single little area. And I want
31 |30 |00:02:33 ~-~-> 00:02:37 |to, kind of like summarize every market I cover on one screenshot like this. It
32 |31 |00:02:37 ~-~-> 00:02:41 |allows me to get through it quickly and straight, straight to the point. So I
33 |32 |00:02:41 ~-~-> 00:02:45 |counsel you to put a mid level line on that rectangle on your daily chart with
34 |33 |00:02:45 ~-~-> 00:02:48 |this volume imbalance between the two candlestick bodies there, and you can
35 |34 |00:02:48 ~-~-> 00:02:52 |see that it's respected that consequent encroachment with that bearish fair
36 |35 |00:02:52 ~-~-> 00:02:56 |value gap market breaks down another fair value got there. And notice it
37 |36 |00:02:56 ~-~-> 00:03:00 |doesn't get up into the volume and balance when it trades up into these two
38 |37 |00:03:00 ~-~-> 00:03:07 |candlestick wicks so that bearish fair value gap here, it sends price lower,
39 |38 |00:03:07 ~-~-> 00:03:11 |attacking the sell side in here, deeper than it did the first time there's a
40 |39 |00:03:11 ~-~-> 00:03:20 |small, little shallow probe over here, hey, market breaks Lower, goes into
41 |40 |00:03:20 ~-~-> 00:03:28 |another fair value gap there as well. And I'm looking at this across these two
42 |41 |00:03:28 ~-~-> 00:03:33 |candlesticks here, because this was actually shown as a single fair value
43 |42 |00:03:33 ~-~-> 00:03:37 |gap on the two, I'm sorry, on the 10 minute chart. So looking at that right
44 |43 |00:03:37 ~-~-> 00:03:41 |there, I'm blending that. So anytime you ever see me annotate a chart if I share
45 |44 |00:03:41 ~-~-> 00:03:45 |a chart on Twitter, or what we call x Now, it may look like I'm drawing the
46 |45 |00:03:45 ~-~-> 00:03:50 |fair value gap incorrectly, but I'm looking at it at a higher time frame. So
47 |46 |00:03:50 ~-~-> 00:03:54 |for instance, this is showing a five minute chart. Viewing this over the lens
48 |47 |00:03:54 ~-~-> 00:03:58 |of a 10 minute chart, this would be a single cell set of bounds by side
49 |48 |00:03:58 ~-~-> 00:04:04 |inefficiency. So that fair value gap, there is a 10 Minute and it's just a
50 |49 |00:04:04 ~-~-> 00:04:09 |matter of going through all the time frames. And I go through a myriad of
51 |50 |00:04:09 ~-~-> 00:04:12 |different time frames. I don't just go through the static ones that everybody
52 |51 |00:04:12 ~-~-> 00:04:17 |goes to. If there's a cluster or a consolidation of price action, I'll go
53 |52 |00:04:17 ~-~-> 00:04:21 |down to every single one minute interval. So what I mean by that, one
54 |53 |00:04:21 ~-~-> 00:04:26 |minute two, minute three, minute four, minute 56789, 1011, 12, and look for
55 |54 |00:04:26 ~-~-> 00:04:32 |refinement in the inefficiency. And it's something that you should be doing now,
56 |55 |00:04:32 ~-~-> 00:04:35 |when price is stretched out, like for instance, in this portion of the price
57 |56 |00:04:35 ~-~-> 00:04:39 |run, you wouldn't need to do something like that, because you can see it on one
58 |57 |00:04:39 ~-~-> 00:04:44 |or two and it's obvious or the imbalance is so the market reacts. Here, look at
59 |58 |00:04:44 ~-~-> 00:04:48 |the bodies respecting the consequence of this 10 Minute. But remember, we're on a
60 |59 |00:04:48 ~-~-> 00:04:51 |five minute chart, and I know something like this I'm saying is going to be
61 |60 |00:04:51 ~-~-> 00:04:55 |confusing to some of you, but I promise, if you toggle your chart to 10 Minute,
62 |61 |00:04:55 ~-~-> 00:04:58 |you'll see what I'm referring to, but the midpoint or consequent encouragement
63 |62 |00:04:58 ~-~-> 00:05:02 |is being respected by the buyer. Bodies. Here we break lower. We have a volume
64 |63 |00:05:02 ~-~-> 00:05:05 |imbalance. Market creates a consolidation here. It spikes up into
65 |64 |00:05:05 ~-~-> 00:05:08 |that volume imbalance, lay the candlestick, wick right in there
66 |65 |00:05:08 ~-~-> 00:05:14 |perfectly, and then sells off, gravitating back towards this potential
67 |66 |00:05:14 ~-~-> 00:05:19 |inversion fair value gap that might maybe lend to higher prices to take this
68 |67 |00:05:19 ~-~-> 00:05:23 |out. Or if it fails. This is the point here. If it fails, and trades through
69 |68 |00:05:23 ~-~-> 00:05:26 |the midpoint here and gets down in the lower quadrant, the likelihood of
70 |69 |00:05:26 ~-~-> 00:05:33 |bullishness evaporates considerably, meaning that we may have to revisit that
71 |70 |00:05:33 ~-~-> 00:05:36 |low and go a little bit lower. So this is the catalyst, or line in the sand
72 |71 |00:05:36 ~-~-> 00:05:41 |that determines for me with with the next leg in price action right now, I'm
73 |72 |00:05:41 ~-~-> 00:05:46 |going to stick with like this, potentially presenting itself as a
74 |73 |00:05:46 ~-~-> 00:05:50 |bullish inversion, fair value cap. Truth be told, I have no skin in the race on
75 |74 |00:05:50 ~-~-> 00:05:53 |this, so I don't care if I'm right or wrong, because I'm not trading Forex,
76 |75 |00:05:54 ~-~-> 00:05:59 |but lending my analysis in my opinion and counseling you not to use it as
77 |76 |00:05:59 ~-~-> 00:06:03 |trade advice. Just observe it and study it, and just kind of like peek over my
78 |77 |00:06:03 ~-~-> 00:06:06 |shoulder and keep tabs on what you think versus what I think is going to happen.
79 |78 |00:06:07 ~-~-> 00:06:12 |Maybe the market trades lower during the London kill zone at 5am then we have a
80 |79 |00:06:12 ~-~-> 00:06:15 |little consolidation. It rolls over a little bit lower, and we pick back up at
81 |80 |00:06:15 ~-~-> 00:06:18 |seven o'clock in the morning, which is a New York kill zone, treats into a
82 |81 |00:06:18 ~-~-> 00:06:22 |bearish for everybody got there, trades lower right, back into it once more, to
83 |82 |00:06:22 ~-~-> 00:06:26 |attack the relative equal lows where there's sell side there, and we have a
84 |83 |00:06:26 ~-~-> 00:06:30 |New York session reversal, trading back up and leaving these relative equal
85 |84 |00:06:30 ~-~-> 00:06:36 |highs here, breaks lower, small, little inefficiency in there. I didn't draw.
86 |85 |00:06:36 ~-~-> 00:06:41 |And then we went lower once more. And it looks like it wants to dig into this
87 |86 |00:06:41 ~-~-> 00:06:45 |daily potential bullish inversion fair Vega. And again, that's this area here,
88 |87 |00:06:46 ~-~-> 00:06:50 |which I stated, would likely be an interest of mine. Should we go higher
89 |88 |00:06:50 ~-~-> 00:06:54 |when we were trading on that day, and then we went through it. So the next
90 |89 |00:06:54 ~-~-> 00:06:58 |day, on Friday, we opened, traded down into the upper quadrant, which is this
91 |90 |00:06:58 ~-~-> 00:07:01 |line here, and then sent this up into the daily volume of balance. And once we
92 |91 |00:07:01 ~-~-> 00:07:07 |got there, we're pulling back down lower in the attempt, maybe to see this act as
93 |92 |00:07:07 ~-~-> 00:07:09 |a discount array to send it one more time higher.
94 |93 |00:07:15 ~-~-> 00:07:19 |Right, the euro, dollar daily chart on the left. I mentioned this inefficiency
95 |94 |00:07:20 ~-~-> 00:07:26 |in the last passing of my commentary on euro and the bodies have perfectly
96 |95 |00:07:26 ~-~-> 00:07:30 |respected that inefficiency while allowing the wicks to do the damage. So
97 |96 |00:07:30 ~-~-> 00:07:34 |notice how we saw today trade below Friday's low. We traded into that. I'm
98 |97 |00:07:34 ~-~-> 00:07:39 |going to counsel you to add the gradient levels on this discount wick, and you'll
99 |98 |00:07:39 ~-~-> 00:07:42 |see something in here that I'm not showing here, not because I want to hide
100 |99 |00:07:42 ~-~-> 00:07:46 |it from you, but I like to leave little things in here for you to find on your
101 |100 |00:07:46 ~-~-> 00:07:51 |own. And then bodies respect that bullish very, very gap, and it rallies
102 |101 |00:07:51 ~-~-> 00:07:55 |back up into this inefficiency that's shaded in yellow. This is a buy side
103 |102 |00:07:55 ~-~-> 00:08:00 |balance, cell side efficiency, but now we went below it, so trading up to the
104 |103 |00:08:00 ~-~-> 00:08:04 |midpoint, it would be bullish and continuous bullish if it goes above it
105 |104 |00:08:04 ~-~-> 00:08:10 |and then trades. It's an inversion, inversion, breakup. It reclaimed bullish
106 |105 |00:08:10 ~-~-> 00:08:16 |fair value gap in this yellow area on the London kill zone, we see a breakaway
107 |106 |00:08:16 ~-~-> 00:08:21 |gap here. Never trades back down into it, immediate rebalance here to I don't
108 |107 |00:08:21 ~-~-> 00:08:24 |want to annotate here because it's getting busy with a lot of annotations.
109 |108 |00:08:24 ~-~-> 00:08:27 |You can add that to your own bullish fair value gap there, and we have the
110 |109 |00:08:27 ~-~-> 00:08:30 |market trade back down into a bullish fair value gap as well. And that's
111 |110 |00:08:30 ~-~-> 00:08:34 |actually an order block too, but I didn't want to add it because it's too
112 |111 |00:08:34 ~-~-> 00:08:37 |many annotations. You can add it for yours. That's what I'm counseling you to
113 |112 |00:08:37 ~-~-> 00:08:41 |do. And we have this low, this high, and that lower low. So that's a bullish
114 |113 |00:08:41 ~-~-> 00:08:46 |breaker. And we have the order block, which is the two consecutive down closed
115 |114 |00:08:46 ~-~-> 00:08:51 |candles. And that's a change in the state of delivery bullish. So we hit
116 |115 |00:08:51 ~-~-> 00:08:56 |that. And also we're hitting the low of that volume of balance over, I'm sorry,
117 |116 |00:08:56 ~-~-> 00:09:00 |not volume. This the fair value capital daily chart. We're seeing a hit here. So
118 |117 |00:09:00 ~-~-> 00:09:05 |this green box area here, there in the kill zone is basically touching right
119 |118 |00:09:05 ~-~-> 00:09:09 |there on the daily chart. And then we see the extrapolations at the upside a
120 |119 |00:09:09 ~-~-> 00:09:14 |institutional order flow entry drill here, if your bank account that doesn't
121 |120 |00:09:14 ~-~-> 00:09:18 |get filled despite the one ticket, trades below the high of it. And then
122 |121 |00:09:18 ~-~-> 00:09:25 |the consolidation here rips through it, trades up into the lower quadrant level
123 |122 |00:09:25 ~-~-> 00:09:34 |at 1.17829 and that's this level here, the lower quadrant of this old bullish
124 |123 |00:09:34 ~-~-> 00:09:38 |rear value gap. And we had multiple attempts in here kill zone during the
125 |124 |00:09:38 ~-~-> 00:09:42 |New York, New York open, and we break lower to clear up the sell side here,
126 |125 |00:09:43 ~-~-> 00:09:46 |and then it springs higher after creating a fair value gap and trading
127 |126 |00:09:46 ~-~-> 00:09:50 |into a propulsion block. This is the order block here, but then this candle
128 |127 |00:09:50 ~-~-> 00:09:56 |is higher, trades down to halfway, but doesn't close below the halfway. And
129 |128 |00:09:56 ~-~-> 00:09:59 |that's a definition for propulsion block. If you want to know more about
130 |129 |00:09:59 ~-~-> 00:10:07 |the propulsion block. I go to my 2016 mentorship playlist month. Or I go
131 |130 |00:10:07 ~-~-> 00:10:11 |through the PD arrays. The basic PD arrays, I give you an overview of what
132 |131 |00:10:11 ~-~-> 00:10:16 |they are, a simplistic overview. It's not a complete expose of them, but it'll
133 |132 |00:10:16 ~-~-> 00:10:20 |give you more information about what it is. Then market springs through and get
134 |133 |00:10:20 ~-~-> 00:10:23 |through up to the consequent encroachment, making the higher high,
135 |134 |00:10:23 ~-~-> 00:10:26 |which is the consequent encroachment of this old pot, sound and balance, cell
136 |135 |00:10:26 ~-~-> 00:10:29 |sign, efficiency, fair value
137 |136 |00:10:35 ~-~-> 00:10:38 |gap. Now here's the British pound or cable and daily chart. Left hand side. I
138 |137 |00:10:38 ~-~-> 00:10:41 |mentioned on Friday, we traded down to this polish fair value gap, and the
139 |138 |00:10:41 ~-~-> 00:10:45 |bodies were respecting consequent encroachment. That's a midpoint of that
140 |139 |00:10:45 ~-~-> 00:10:51 |after taking out Friday's low. So we have this wick here. I'm added in here,
141 |140 |00:10:51 ~-~-> 00:10:54 |and it's it's a little bit lighter in color versus the ones that are up here.
142 |141 |00:10:54 ~-~-> 00:10:58 |So just be mindful the color change between these and this. And just look at
143 |142 |00:10:58 ~-~-> 00:11:03 |your times and the price. So that way you can see what reference points these
144 |143 |00:11:03 ~-~-> 00:11:06 |levels are in relationship to the daily chart when we're looking over here,
145 |144 |00:11:06 ~-~-> 00:11:10 |because there's a lot of lines over here. So whether we're bullish or
146 |145 |00:11:10 ~-~-> 00:11:16 |bearish, the market will want to go back up into this wick and maybe even trade
147 |146 |00:11:16 ~-~-> 00:11:19 |back up into this area here. So this discount wick, bullish or bears, it
148 |147 |00:11:19 ~-~-> 00:11:23 |doesn't matter. I always look for price to try to gravitate back into these now,
149 |148 |00:11:23 ~-~-> 00:11:27 |if I'm bullish, I want to see it trade into the upper quadrants. If I'm
150 |149 |00:11:27 ~-~-> 00:11:31 |bearish, I want to see it find resistance in the lower half of these
151 |150 |00:11:31 ~-~-> 00:11:36 |discount wicks. Okay, so over here we have the London kill zone, the breakaway
152 |151 |00:11:36 ~-~-> 00:11:39 |cap. Again, like on fiber, we have an institutional or flow entry drill, which
153 |152 |00:11:39 ~-~-> 00:11:43 |is this candlestick. We trade one tick below the previous candle and leave the
154 |153 |00:11:43 ~-~-> 00:11:47 |gap open, then we have a fair value gap there, and it's also occurring right at
155 |154 |00:11:47 ~-~-> 00:11:51 |the consequent encroachment of this bullish fair value gap. See the red
156 |155 |00:11:51 ~-~-> 00:11:57 |line? That price right there is this price. So market hits that, and we also
157 |156 |00:11:57 ~-~-> 00:12:04 |have a fair value gap and a order block, which is changed state delivery. It
158 |157 |00:12:04 ~-~-> 00:12:08 |wicks through it just to tap the fair value gap and the consequent
159 |158 |00:12:08 ~-~-> 00:12:12 |encroachment. There's times when my PD arrays will just allow the market to
160 |159 |00:12:12 ~-~-> 00:12:16 |color outside the lines. When there's a confluence of PD arrays, that's why it's
161 |160 |00:12:16 ~-~-> 00:12:20 |doing that little color outside the lines. It's not randomness. It's the
162 |161 |00:12:20 ~-~-> 00:12:25 |fact that it's going to these more significant PD arrays that's in line
163 |162 |00:12:25 ~-~-> 00:12:28 |with what the present narrative is. So if the market's bullish, it's going to
164 |163 |00:12:28 ~-~-> 00:12:32 |really come down here and offer an opportunity. If it's in close proximity,
165 |164 |00:12:32 ~-~-> 00:12:36 |whatever the lowest PD array is in that cluster of price action, it'll reach for
166 |165 |00:12:36 ~-~-> 00:12:39 |that one, like it does here with the fair value gap. And the bodies are
167 |166 |00:12:39 ~-~-> 00:12:43 |respecting that bullish bear bag gap here and sends it higher, once more,
168 |167 |00:12:43 ~-~-> 00:12:47 |accumulates around the upper quadrant of that old bullish free value gap that's
169 |168 |00:12:47 ~-~-> 00:12:54 |level here and springs out of that comes back down in it's the low of the sell
170 |169 |00:12:54 ~-~-> 00:12:59 |side liquidity pool of September 11 to daily Low. That's this low, right here.
171 |170 |00:13:00 ~-~-> 00:13:06 |Okay, so it sweeps the liquidity below that low here, once more, here, once
172 |171 |00:13:06 ~-~-> 00:13:10 |more, here, and look at the values you're expecting it here, and then sends
173 |172 |00:13:10 ~-~-> 00:13:12 |it higher. Accumulates around lower quadrant
174 |173 |00:13:17 ~-~-> 00:13:22 |of this wicker here is September 11, and the market runs higher, comes back to
175 |174 |00:13:22 ~-~-> 00:13:29 |the lower quadrant. And then this is the high of that September 11 daily discount
176 |175 |00:13:29 ~-~-> 00:13:33 |wick. That's the open on this candlestick, basically. So this wick is
177 |176 |00:13:33 ~-~-> 00:13:38 |below the candlestick, so it's a discount wick, and it's the high of it.
178 |177 |00:13:38 ~-~-> 00:13:43 |That's this level right here, entry, entry, right up into that. So we're
179 |178 |00:13:43 ~-~-> 00:13:48 |going to see what we see in regards to continuation. Should cable go higher. I
180 |179 |00:13:48 ~-~-> 00:13:51 |just cleaned the chart up, took everything off, and just making mention
181 |180 |00:13:51 ~-~-> 00:13:56 |of this. This is the present sell side imbalance that's trading into. And if we
182 |181 |00:13:57 ~-~-> 00:14:01 |get above this high here, what I want to see is how we trade to if at all, if we
183 |182 |00:14:01 ~-~-> 00:14:04 |even get to the midpoint of that, if it's bullish, it'll have no problem
184 |183 |00:14:04 ~-~-> 00:14:09 |getting up to the midpoint and go higher. If it's bearish, it may falter
185 |184 |00:14:09 ~-~-> 00:14:14 |and roll over before getting here, or it needs to trade to the upper, upper but
186 |185 |00:14:14 ~-~-> 00:14:19 |the lower quadrant, level here or this level and fail and then roll over. That
187 |186 |00:14:19 ~-~-> 00:14:23 |would be indicative of weakness. So these are, like, the lines in the sand
188 |187 |00:14:23 ~-~-> 00:14:26 |to determine because we're gonna, again, we're in a consolidation with the dollar
189 |188 |00:14:26 ~-~-> 00:14:33 |index and so many wartime events setting the stage for future military actions
190 |189 |00:14:33 ~-~-> 00:14:38 |that's gonna have a direct impact on the dollar. So it's kinda like a wait and
191 |190 |00:14:38 ~-~-> 00:14:40 |see, but these are the things I'm watching, and hopefully through
192 |191 |00:14:40 ~-~-> 00:14:41 |insightful to you.
193