Wiki source code of ICT YT - 2025-06-06 - 2025 Storytellers Series - Dollar and EurUsd 06-05-2025
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2 | |1 |00:00:00 ~-~-> 00:00:20 |ICT: Hi folks, welcome back. All right, so we're going to be looking at the | ||
3 | |2 |00:00:20 ~-~-> 00:00:25 |currency markets. I know we haven't talked about them in such a long time. | ||
4 | |3 |00:00:25 ~-~-> 00:00:32 |So this is the storytellers series. This is episode three, and I promise I would | ||
5 | |4 |00:00:32 ~-~-> 00:00:38 |talk about forex a little bit in the dollar index, but I kind of want to keep | ||
6 | |5 |00:00:38 ~-~-> 00:00:45 |them separate, because I'm not actively trading Forex, so I'm I kind of want to | ||
7 | |6 |00:00:45 ~-~-> 00:00:50 |keep my work with them separate and segregated from that of index futures, | ||
8 | |7 |00:00:50 ~-~-> 00:00:56 |which is my active market asset class at the moment. All right, says June 5, 2025 | ||
9 | |8 |00:00:56 ~-~-> 00:01:00 |and you'll forgive me if I sound tired, because I've been going just met all | ||
10 | |9 |00:01:00 ~-~-> 00:01:07 |day, so I shared a little bit of mojo with you guys in london session for NQ. | ||
11 | |10 |00:01:08 ~-~-> 00:01:12 |But this discussion here is going to be just specifically dealing with the | ||
12 | |11 |00:01:12 ~-~-> 00:01:17 |dollar index and fiber or Euro USD. Now I already know some of you are going to | ||
13 | |12 |00:01:17 ~-~-> 00:01:24 |go crazy and want to see me do every currency pair, every exotic every I'm | ||
14 | |13 |00:01:24 ~-~-> 00:01:28 |not. I'm not doing that, folks, I'm not. So I'll be content with just doing Euro | ||
15 | |14 |00:01:28 ~-~-> 00:01:37 |dollar, since it's the most well traded forex pair in the world. So you'll just | ||
16 | |15 |00:01:37 ~-~-> 00:01:41 |have to be content with that, won't you? If not, please don't complain, because | ||
17 | |16 |00:01:41 ~-~-> 00:01:46 |I'll never see your comment ever again if you do right? So we are looking at | ||
18 | |17 |00:01:46 ~-~-> 00:01:51 |the weekly chart of the dollar index. Okay? And let me preface it by saying | ||
19 | |18 |00:01:51 ~-~-> 00:01:59 |this, you should know by now that there's all kinds of things going on as | ||
20 | |19 |00:01:59 ~-~-> 00:02:06 |it relates to global trade, the tariffs, tariffs are on, the tariffs are off, the | ||
21 | |20 |00:02:06 ~-~-> 00:02:11 |tariffs are going higher. The tariffs are going lower. It just is constant, | ||
22 | |21 |00:02:11 ~-~-> 00:02:19 |constant chaos, and it makes the markets a little bit more difficult if you're | ||
23 | |22 |00:02:19 ~-~-> 00:02:23 |constantly looking at fundamentals, okay? Because fundamentally, it's | ||
24 | |23 |00:02:23 ~-~-> 00:02:28 |insanity if you're trying to trade fundamentally, you have to be trading | ||
25 | |24 |00:02:28 ~-~-> 00:02:33 |technically. You have to be looking at how the market is being manipulated to | ||
26 | |25 |00:02:33 ~-~-> 00:02:40 |hurt individuals. Okay, and none of this is good for the dollar index. Okay, | ||
27 | |26 |00:02:40 ~-~-> 00:02:44 |let's just make it very plain and simple. There is nothing good in any of | ||
28 | |27 |00:02:44 ~-~-> 00:02:53 |this for the dollar at all. Okay, so, in fact, it's beneficial for everyone, for | ||
29 | |28 |00:02:53 ~-~-> 00:03:01 |the dollar to go down from where it is right now, everything's just warped and | ||
30 | |29 |00:03:01 ~-~-> 00:03:07 |a higher dollar, a firmer dollar, is not something that a lot of the bigwigs | ||
31 | |30 |00:03:07 ~-~-> 00:03:14 |actually want right now. So this buy center bounce, sell sign efficiency on | ||
32 | |31 |00:03:14 ~-~-> 00:03:17 |the dollar index. And again, this is a weekly chart. Keep your eye up here in | ||
33 | |32 |00:03:17 ~-~-> 00:03:22 |the upper left hand corner whenever I'm changing chart time frames, you know, be | ||
34 | |33 |00:03:22 ~-~-> 00:03:27 |aware of what I'm using. So this here, we traded down through it a few weeks | ||
35 | |34 |00:03:27 ~-~-> 00:03:32 |back, and not to mention all this move here, this was called out in advance. | ||
36 | |35 |00:03:32 ~-~-> 00:03:37 |All of this was called out in advance. This entire market maker buy model from | ||
37 | |36 |00:03:37 ~-~-> 00:03:41 |here, and then market maker sell model here. Go back and look at all the | ||
38 | |37 |00:03:41 ~-~-> 00:03:45 |commentary. Look at every post. At every post on X, everything I've ever stated. | ||
39 | |38 |00:03:45 ~-~-> 00:03:49 |It's all there, okay? And the things I didn't say there, I said in my students | ||
40 | |39 |00:03:49 ~-~-> 00:03:54 |live streams, and they all have screenshots for it too. So looking at | ||
41 | |40 |00:03:54 ~-~-> 00:03:59 |this inversion fair value gap, we rallied up into consequent encouragement | ||
42 | |41 |00:03:59 ~-~-> 00:04:04 |of that filled in this inefficiency here with the bodies. Notice that? Okay, so | ||
43 | |42 |00:04:04 ~-~-> 00:04:07 |the wick was allowed to go up into the inversion fair value got consequent | ||
44 | |43 |00:04:07 ~-~-> 00:04:12 |encroachment there. And then we had a volume imbalance just traded up into | ||
45 | |44 |00:04:12 ~-~-> 00:04:18 |here last week. Touch that. And then now, here's where we're at. I like the | ||
46 | |45 |00:04:18 ~-~-> 00:04:24 |idea of seeing it eventually? How soon? How fast will it get there? I don't | ||
47 | |46 |00:04:24 ~-~-> 00:04:29 |know, because there's so much manipulation right now. And if you're if | ||
48 | |47 |00:04:29 ~-~-> 00:04:33 |you're brand new, and you're trying to trade Forex, and you're under | ||
49 | |48 |00:04:33 ~-~-> 00:04:37 |capitalized on top of it, and you're impulsive, you don't have a model, you | ||
50 | |49 |00:04:37 ~-~-> 00:04:41 |your chances of being profitable trading that asset class is next to zero. Okay, | ||
51 | |50 |00:04:42 ~-~-> 00:04:47 |let me be upfront and honest with you. It is so, so difficult right now, | ||
52 | |51 |00:04:47 ~-~-> 00:04:55 |trading the Forex markets, I can, I have done it a few times in the period of | ||
53 | |52 |00:04:55 ~-~-> 00:04:59 |time where I actively moved away from it, where I'm not actually putting real | ||
54 | |53 |00:04:59 ~-~-> 00:05:06 |money behind a. Of the trades this, this climate, this global chaos that we're | ||
55 | |54 |00:05:06 ~-~-> 00:05:10 |seeing, this was actually explained to you. It was coming in a lot of the | ||
56 | |55 |00:05:10 ~-~-> 00:05:13 |Twitter spaces I did, and just look at it. It's wild, right? It's just | ||
57 | |56 |00:05:13 ~-~-> 00:05:17 |insanity, and it's going to get worse, and it's going to be great for the index | ||
58 | |57 |00:05:17 ~-~-> 00:05:21 |futures. It's going to be great for the commodity market, but for forex, you | ||
59 | |58 |00:05:21 ~-~-> 00:05:25 |know, we're we're just waiting for the next shoe to drop. That's basically what | ||
60 | |59 |00:05:25 ~-~-> 00:05:30 |it is once that happens. You know, the wild wild west, big ranges, big | ||
61 | |60 |00:05:30 ~-~-> 00:05:35 |extrapolated, right price runs. That's coming. I think it's going to be here | ||
62 | |61 |00:05:35 ~-~-> 00:05:40 |before Christmas. So I have optimism in that regard, but until then, you just | ||
63 | |62 |00:05:40 ~-~-> 00:05:44 |got to be really, really careful, folks. So I like the idea of this low being | ||
64 | |63 |00:05:44 ~-~-> 00:05:49 |traded down to, and if it can get to that low and accelerate the sell side | ||
65 | |64 |00:05:49 ~-~-> 00:05:54 |below here is where I think we'll try to gravitate to. Now, it's not a lot in | ||
66 | |65 |00:05:54 ~-~-> 00:06:00 |terms of range, but you know, that's what I believe is likely to occur. I'm | ||
67 | |66 |00:06:00 ~-~-> 00:06:04 |not bullish at all on Dollar Index. I'm not at all, even though we went down | ||
68 | |67 |00:06:04 ~-~-> 00:06:07 |below these relative equal lows. And people might think, Okay, well, that's, | ||
69 | |68 |00:06:07 ~-~-> 00:06:13 |you know, some kind of a fake break, and then go higher. You know, I'm happy to | ||
70 | |69 |00:06:13 ~-~-> 00:06:19 |be proven wrong, but I just don't see it, folks. I mean, the the necessity for | ||
71 | |70 |00:06:19 ~-~-> 00:06:23 |all things coming into an alignment to cause this to go higher based on all the | ||
72 | |71 |00:06:23 ~-~-> 00:06:28 |things that's going on right now, just, I don't see it in the cards. Okay? So I | ||
73 | |72 |00:06:28 ~-~-> 00:06:36 |believe that the stock market is not done going higher. I believe that we are | ||
74 | |73 |00:06:36 ~-~-> 00:06:43 |still risk on in that regard. But so I think this is a risk on market, meaning | ||
75 | |74 |00:06:43 ~-~-> 00:06:46 |that the dollar index is likely to trade softer. | ||
76 | |75 |00:06:52 ~-~-> 00:06:57 |It's a daily chart. You can see that up here, Dollar Index beautiful, consequent | ||
77 | |76 |00:06:57 ~-~-> 00:07:01 |encouragement of that weekly inversion, fair value gap trading up into the | ||
78 | |77 |00:07:01 ~-~-> 00:07:06 |weekly volume and balance beautiful. And this low is near term sell side | ||
79 | |78 |00:07:06 ~-~-> 00:07:10 |liquidity, then this liquidity pool, and then, because I like both of these here, | ||
80 | |79 |00:07:10 ~-~-> 00:07:14 |remember that on a weekly chart? Now, okay, all I did was took those same | ||
81 | |80 |00:07:14 ~-~-> 00:07:17 |levels. I annotated on the weekly chart by dropping down the daily chart. It | ||
82 | |81 |00:07:17 ~-~-> 00:07:22 |transposes those same levels here through the lens of daily candlesticks, | ||
83 | |82 |00:07:23 ~-~-> 00:07:29 |any PD array. Okay, here's a here's a little secret for you, any PD array that | ||
84 | |83 |00:07:29 ~-~-> 00:07:36 |I annotate on my charts, if they have a respectable amount of range between | ||
85 | |84 |00:07:36 ~-~-> 00:07:43 |them. And in this sense, these two are fitting the bill for that. Between these | ||
86 | |85 |00:07:43 ~-~-> 00:07:50 |two levels, half of that is Event Horizon. That is every PD array, every | ||
87 | |86 |00:07:50 ~-~-> 00:07:59 |single PD array. Now, right away, some of you, you know skeptics, those ideas | ||
88 | |87 |00:08:00 ~-~-> 00:08:03 |cause you to feel like, well, of course, then, if you have 1000 lines on the | ||
89 | |88 |00:08:03 ~-~-> 00:08:08 |chart, you know eventually the marks gonna hit one of them. But I'm always | ||
90 | |89 |00:08:08 ~-~-> 00:08:12 |calling the ones that I believe are going to be salient. That's the part you | ||
91 | |90 |00:08:12 ~-~-> 00:08:19 |keep emitting in your commentary or your little rude remarks. So I believe that | ||
92 | |91 |00:08:19 ~-~-> 00:08:24 |this low, this specific higher Time Frame, sell side liquidity pool from the | ||
93 | |92 |00:08:24 ~-~-> 00:08:29 |weekly chart, halfway between these two red lines here you want to annotate on | ||
94 | |93 |00:08:29 ~-~-> 00:08:35 |on your own chart. Okay? So that will be event horizon, and then this sell side | ||
95 | |94 |00:08:35 ~-~-> 00:08:39 |here. So I am not bullish on Dollar Index unless something comes out and | ||
96 | |95 |00:08:39 ~-~-> 00:08:46 |world peace is, you know, is discussed, and Iran no longer wants to do anything | ||
97 | |96 |00:08:46 ~-~-> 00:08:50 |with nuclear. And North Korea says, you know, we're not going to be involved | ||
98 | |97 |00:08:50 ~-~-> 00:08:54 |with anything. Russia says, You know what, Ukraine, you can have everything. | ||
99 | |98 |00:08:54 ~-~-> 00:08:58 |We don't want anything. And it's just, it's not happening, folks, that's my | ||
100 | |99 |00:08:58 ~-~-> 00:09:02 |point. Okay, Taiwan is not going to get invaded by, you know, China, all these | ||
101 | |100 |00:09:02 ~-~-> 00:09:09 |things would have to smooth on out. And this is not happening. Okay? It's not | ||
102 | |101 |00:09:09 ~-~-> 00:09:15 |happening. So lower prices are in order, in my opinion, for Dollar Index, we're | ||
103 | |102 |00:09:15 ~-~-> 00:09:23 |in an hourly chart now. So this, this imbalance here by side, balance cell | ||
104 | |103 |00:09:23 ~-~-> 00:09:26 |sign efficiency, when we traded down through it act as an inversion for your | ||
105 | |104 |00:09:26 ~-~-> 00:09:31 |Vega. So I'm waiting to see if the bodies are contained inside of this and | ||
106 | |105 |00:09:31 ~-~-> 00:09:37 |if we roll back outside of it. Now, if we trade higher, I gotta charge my | ||
107 | |106 |00:09:37 ~-~-> 00:09:42 |battery yet, but we're going to keep that in the video. The if the dog index | ||
108 | |107 |00:09:42 ~-~-> 00:09:45 |trades higher and trades above here, then it just means we're just going to | ||
109 | |108 |00:09:45 ~-~-> 00:09:50 |hang around and go sideways for a little bit longer time. But longer term still, | ||
110 | |109 |00:09:50 ~-~-> 00:09:54 |I think that the dollar is still most likely going to be delivering lower | ||
111 | |110 |00:09:54 ~-~-> 00:10:00 |prices 15 minute time frame, same business that is outlined. On the hourly | ||
112 | |111 |00:10:00 ~-~-> 00:10:07 |chart. We're using the hourly inversion fair value gap. This is not the same one | ||
113 | |112 |00:10:07 ~-~-> 00:10:11 |that was on the weekly chart, by the way, and we just saw this drop down here | ||
114 | |113 |00:10:11 ~-~-> 00:10:20 |today on employment data, and this sell side bounce by side efficiency. Is it | ||
115 | |114 |00:10:20 ~-~-> 00:10:24 |inversion, fair value gap. So we can start looking at all these specific key | ||
116 | |115 |00:10:24 ~-~-> 00:10:29 |levels, the quadrants inside that, and trade up in here and notice the body | ||
117 | |116 |00:10:29 ~-~-> 00:10:34 |staying inside that inefficiency from the hourly chart. If it rolls out of it | ||
118 | |117 |00:10:34 ~-~-> 00:10:39 |and comes back up and hits it as a low, I would want to see it trade down into | ||
119 | |118 |00:10:39 ~-~-> 00:10:46 |that inefficiency, and it has to eat up all of these levels decisively and trade | ||
120 | |119 |00:10:46 ~-~-> 00:10:52 |with the close below them. And then any drop below this low here is most likely | ||
121 | |120 |00:10:52 ~-~-> 00:10:58 |going to be sustainable within a five minute chart here in dollar index, you | ||
122 | |121 |00:10:58 ~-~-> 00:11:03 |can see that there is a Boston valve cell sign efficiency inside of that 15 | ||
123 | |122 |00:11:03 ~-~-> 00:11:10 |minute time frame, inversion, fair value gap. So if we go down lower, this area | ||
124 | |123 |00:11:10 ~-~-> 00:11:15 |in here should act as an inversion, fair value gap that would be used as accounts | ||
125 | |124 |00:11:15 ~-~-> 00:11:18 |descendants below here, and then into that higher Time Frame, weekly lower | ||
126 | |125 |00:11:18 ~-~-> 00:11:24 |cell side liquidity pool. So this little area here, should we break lower, extend | ||
127 | |126 |00:11:24 ~-~-> 00:11:28 |that out in the future? Okay? And it's going to probably be a trigger for a | ||
128 | |127 |00:11:28 ~-~-> 00:11:38 |ramp into this low and then further lower. Clear dollar weekly chart, okay, | ||
129 | |128 |00:11:38 ~-~-> 00:11:43 |we have inversion fairway gap here. We saw that be utilized bullish fair value | ||
130 | |129 |00:11:43 ~-~-> 00:11:48 |gap here, body staying inside of it. And then we're working inside of this weekly | ||
131 | |130 |00:11:49 ~-~-> 00:11:52 |premium wick. I put the gradient levels in it. We traded up into consequent | ||
132 | |131 |00:11:52 ~-~-> 00:11:56 |encroachment. And the next buy side liquidity pool I like up here, because | ||
133 | |132 |00:11:56 ~-~-> 00:12:04 |this week basically took out this short term high. And I would, I mean, this is, | ||
134 | |133 |00:12:04 ~-~-> 00:12:08 |I guess, doable, but if it's going to go higher on the basis of a lower dollar, I | ||
135 | |134 |00:12:08 ~-~-> 00:12:17 |would like to see it reach up into that full of liquidity for your dollar daily | ||
136 | |135 |00:12:17 ~-~-> 00:12:23 |chart and same levels from the weekly chart transposed into the daily This is | ||
137 | |136 |00:12:23 ~-~-> 00:12:30 |a little problematic for me, like I I'm not terribly excited here. So for me, I | ||
138 | |137 |00:12:31 ~-~-> 00:12:35 |would like to see sustain, continue price run, to take out this high. I | ||
139 | |138 |00:12:35 ~-~-> 00:12:41 |don't want to see anything come back down into the weekly Bucha fair value | ||
140 | |139 |00:12:41 ~-~-> 00:12:44 |gap, which is what this blue box is here. Remember the weekly chart levels | ||
141 | |140 |00:12:44 ~-~-> 00:12:48 |are being shown on the daily, and I certainly wouldn't want it to come back | ||
142 | |141 |00:12:48 ~-~-> 00:12:52 |down into this, because it's already done its business here. So we've already | ||
143 | |142 |00:12:52 ~-~-> 00:12:55 |seen the inversion fair value gap act as an inversion fair value gap. That's | ||
144 | |143 |00:12:55 ~-~-> 00:13:02 |bullish, then the low of the fair value gap here, and then it stopped just shy | ||
145 | |144 |00:13:02 ~-~-> 00:13:06 |of consequent encouragement, right there. Notice that that's bullish for | ||
146 | |145 |00:13:06 ~-~-> 00:13:13 |me, and I want to see Non Farm Payroll data tomorrow facilitate continuation to | ||
147 | |146 |00:13:13 ~-~-> 00:13:17 |the upside for euro dollar. That would make a little bit easier for me to give | ||
148 | |147 |00:13:17 ~-~-> 00:13:22 |continued commentary and opinion about what it's likely to do unless it does | ||
149 | |148 |00:13:22 ~-~-> 00:13:26 |that, then, you know, I'm just going to keep my cards close to my best and just | ||
150 | |149 |00:13:26 ~-~-> 00:13:31 |expect lower dollar, higher Euro. But any individual, specific key levels in | ||
151 | |150 |00:13:31 ~-~-> 00:13:36 |here would have to be mentioned at a later time, because what is on this | ||
152 | |151 |00:13:36 ~-~-> 00:13:44 |chart right now is pertinent for me. One hour chart. Okay, now this one here, I | ||
153 | |152 |00:13:44 ~-~-> 00:13:47 |think, start over here from the left side of chart. This is that weekly | ||
154 | |153 |00:13:47 ~-~-> 00:13:51 |bullish fair value gap that did not go down consequent encouragement. Then we | ||
155 | |154 |00:13:51 ~-~-> 00:13:54 |have buy side of balance, sell side efficiency comes down to consequent | ||
156 | |155 |00:13:54 ~-~-> 00:13:58 |encroachment the bodies respect that. This is a sell side liquidity raid, and | ||
157 | |156 |00:13:58 ~-~-> 00:14:08 |ramps it up higher trades into the lower quadrant of that weekly premium wick. | ||
158 | |157 |00:14:10 ~-~-> 00:14:14 |This is the low of it. Lower quadrant, consequent encroachment, and then the | ||
159 | |158 |00:14:14 ~-~-> 00:14:18 |upper quadrant and the high of that wick is outside the scope of this, this | ||
160 | |159 |00:14:18 ~-~-> 00:14:23 |charts data. Then we have an inversion fair value gap here. Now this is | ||
161 | |160 |00:14:23 ~-~-> 00:14:28 |something for your notes. Okay, whenever there's an indecisive candle like this, | ||
162 | |161 |00:14:29 ~-~-> 00:14:34 |I take that out. I just imagine it's not there. So that low to that candles high, | ||
163 | |162 |00:14:35 ~-~-> 00:14:40 |that one down, closed candle, that's what I'm seeing as a fair value gap. I'm | ||
164 | |163 |00:14:40 ~-~-> 00:14:43 |not looking at this wick. I'm not looking at this candlestick at all, | ||
165 | |164 |00:14:43 ~-~-> 00:14:49 |because both of these candles here traded that range and it closed where it | ||
166 | |165 |00:14:49 ~-~-> 00:14:54 |opened. So I don't care to know that data in the formation of my fair value | ||
167 | |166 |00:14:54 ~-~-> 00:15:00 |gap. So this low and this candlestick is high that it's. Being shaded there. | ||
168 | |167 |00:15:01 ~-~-> 00:15:03 |That's the fair value gap. You can see it being used there with the bodies. | ||
169 | |168 |00:15:04 ~-~-> 00:15:07 |It's being respected there also. And then we came down to the high of it | ||
170 | |169 |00:15:07 ~-~-> 00:15:11 |here. And then worked a propulsion block, which is a bullish order block | ||
171 | |170 |00:15:11 ~-~-> 00:15:16 |here, that only goes down into a previous order block, but it cannot | ||
172 | |171 |00:15:16 ~-~-> 00:15:21 |create trade lower than half of its mean threshold, or mean threshold of its | ||
173 | |172 |00:15:21 ~-~-> 00:15:24 |body. And it doesn't do those things here, and it trades to the low of the | ||
174 | |173 |00:15:24 ~-~-> 00:15:29 |wick on that weekly chart right there. And then we saw the acceleration to the | ||
175 | |174 |00:15:29 ~-~-> 00:15:33 |upside. I'm watching this area here to act as an inversion fair value gap, | ||
176 | |175 |00:15:33 ~-~-> 00:15:37 |because it also worked that level here, here, and now we're on the other side of | ||
177 | |176 |00:15:37 ~-~-> 00:15:42 |it. So I would like to see it continue, staying firm. If we just melt down and | ||
178 | |177 |00:15:42 ~-~-> 00:15:46 |go overnight lower than this low here, then you know, all bets are off, and | ||
179 | |178 |00:15:46 ~-~-> 00:15:50 |we'll have to see what we get next week. But I would like to see continuation | ||
180 | |179 |00:15:50 ~-~-> 00:15:54 |there. Now remember, I'm not trading Forex, so don't take any of my | ||
181 | |180 |00:15:54 ~-~-> 00:15:59 |commentary here as an invitation for you to go out there and start trading. Okay, | ||
182 | |181 |00:15:59 ~-~-> 00:16:03 |because if I'm wrong, and in this climate, I could very well be wrong, | ||
183 | |182 |00:16:03 ~-~-> 00:16:06 |which is the number one reason why I've not been talking about forex, because | ||
184 | |183 |00:16:06 ~-~-> 00:16:10 |there's too much manipulation, and the ranges aren't worth the risk, right? | ||
185 | |184 |00:16:13 ~-~-> 00:16:18 |15 minute time frame, buy side liquidity here, really smooth highs and that | ||
186 | |185 |00:16:18 ~-~-> 00:16:23 |propulsion block shown there, sell side, liquidity pool, RAID went higher. All | ||
187 | |186 |00:16:23 ~-~-> 00:16:28 |that business shown here and again, I don't want to see that inversion fairbag | ||
188 | |187 |00:16:28 ~-~-> 00:16:32 |give up the ghost and trade back down lower than that, because even though | ||
189 | |188 |00:16:32 ~-~-> 00:16:37 |this has gone up and it's sold off, to me, I would use that as an indication | ||
190 | |189 |00:16:37 ~-~-> 00:16:41 |that retail would see that as a rejection. It's going to go lower when | ||
191 | |190 |00:16:41 ~-~-> 00:16:47 |the dollar index is likely to go lower, that would not be a case here. So I'm | ||
192 | |191 |00:16:47 ~-~-> 00:16:53 |not scared by this right here. I know this was the result of employment data, | ||
193 | |192 |00:16:53 ~-~-> 00:16:57 |and Non Farm Payroll can always upset what was done on a Thursday of Non Farm | ||
194 | |193 |00:16:57 ~-~-> 00:17:03 |Payroll week. So it was the decaffeinated version of employment data | ||
195 | |194 |00:17:04 ~-~-> 00:17:12 |released today. The real show is going to be tomorrow, at 830 Eastern Time, and | ||
196 | |195 |00:17:14 ~-~-> 00:17:20 |the five minute chart here, we're inside this spot on balance, cell sign in | ||
197 | |196 |00:17:20 ~-~-> 00:17:26 |efficiency these two relative equal lows. At the time of me starting this | ||
198 | |197 |00:17:26 ~-~-> 00:17:30 |recording, I had already noticed that it went below here, so it was one of the | ||
199 | |198 |00:17:30 ~-~-> 00:17:34 |things I was going to talk about. How if we could blow these lows, does it go | ||
200 | |199 |00:17:34 ~-~-> 00:17:38 |back up and start working into these levels here, like this, as a bullish | ||
201 | |200 |00:17:38 ~-~-> 00:17:45 |inversion, fair value gap, eventually working back up into the high I'm not | ||
202 | |201 |00:17:45 ~-~-> 00:17:50 |interested in, and seeing lower euro and higher dollar. And I don't think that's | ||
203 | |202 |00:17:50 ~-~-> 00:17:55 |likely to occur, but obviously Non Farm Payroll tomorrow, all the disadvantages | ||
204 | |203 |00:17:55 ~-~-> 00:18:00 |that I would see against me as an analyst going over these markets, I'm | ||
205 | |204 |00:18:00 ~-~-> 00:18:07 |trying to be transparent and share that. So unlike I have been with index | ||
206 | |205 |00:18:07 ~-~-> 00:18:10 |futures, where I was basically coming after like John Wayne saying, This is | ||
207 | |206 |00:18:10 ~-~-> 00:18:14 |what's going to happen, I don't have that same confidence in forex, so just | ||
208 | |207 |00:18:14 ~-~-> 00:18:19 |make sure that you're aware of that. Going in, don't get goofy and think, | ||
209 | |208 |00:18:19 ~-~-> 00:18:22 |Well, I'm going to go in and over leverage. Because if I'm wrong, and | ||
210 | |209 |00:18:22 ~-~-> 00:18:27 |again, I can very well be wrong. You know, Europe could just collapse and the | ||
211 | |210 |00:18:27 ~-~-> 00:18:32 |dollar just spiked up, go crazy. You know, wild stuff can happen any any | ||
212 | |211 |00:18:32 ~-~-> 00:18:36 |minute. I mean, just look what Elon Musk is putting on on it, on the x today, | ||
213 | |212 |00:18:36 ~-~-> 00:18:40 |it's, it's getting crazy, right? So just be mindful of all that stuff that's | ||
214 | |213 |00:18:50 ~-~-> 00:18:56 |going to be it for today, each day, I'll try to toss in one video with your | ||
215 | |214 |00:18:56 ~-~-> 00:19:00 |dollar in the dollar index. Anything that's salient, anything that's useful | ||
216 | |215 |00:19:00 ~-~-> 00:19:06 |to me looking at it, I'll make you know, an attempt to share what my opinion is | ||
217 | |216 |00:19:06 ~-~-> 00:19:09 |about it, and you can take it for whatever it's worth. It might not be | ||
218 | |217 |00:19:09 ~-~-> 00:19:13 |worth anything, okay, but so many of you are asking for this. So this is my gift | ||
219 | |218 |00:19:13 ~-~-> 00:19:15 |to you, till talk to you next time. Be safe. You. | ||
220 |