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ICT YT - 2025-06-06 - 2025 Storytellers Series - Dollar and EurUsd 06-05-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 14:14
1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:20 ICT: Hi folks, welcome back. All right, so we're going to be looking at the
2 00:00:20 --> 00:00:25 currency markets. I know we haven't talked about them in such a long time.
3 00:00:25 --> 00:00:32 So this is the storytellers series. This is episode three, and I promise I would
4 00:00:32 --> 00:00:38 talk about forex a little bit in the dollar index, but I kind of want to keep
5 00:00:38 --> 00:00:45 them separate, because I'm not actively trading Forex, so I'm I kind of want to
6 00:00:45 --> 00:00:50 keep my work with them separate and segregated from that of index futures,
7 00:00:50 --> 00:00:56 which is my active market asset class at the moment. All right, says June 5, 2025
8 00:00:56 --> 00:01:00 and you'll forgive me if I sound tired, because I've been going just met all
9 00:01:00 --> 00:01:07 day, so I shared a little bit of mojo with you guys in london session for NQ.
10 00:01:08 --> 00:01:12 But this discussion here is going to be just specifically dealing with the
11 00:01:12 --> 00:01:17 dollar index and fiber or Euro USD. Now I already know some of you are going to
12 00:01:17 --> 00:01:24 go crazy and want to see me do every currency pair, every exotic every I'm
13 00:01:24 --> 00:01:28 not. I'm not doing that, folks, I'm not. So I'll be content with just doing Euro
14 00:01:28 --> 00:01:37 dollar, since it's the most well traded forex pair in the world. So you'll just
15 00:01:37 --> 00:01:41 have to be content with that, won't you? If not, please don't complain, because
16 00:01:41 --> 00:01:46 I'll never see your comment ever again if you do right? So we are looking at
17 00:01:46 --> 00:01:51 the weekly chart of the dollar index. Okay? And let me preface it by saying
18 00:01:51 --> 00:01:59 this, you should know by now that there's all kinds of things going on as
19 00:01:59 --> 00:02:06 it relates to global trade, the tariffs, tariffs are on, the tariffs are off, the
20 00:02:06 --> 00:02:11 tariffs are going higher. The tariffs are going lower. It just is constant,
21 00:02:11 --> 00:02:19 constant chaos, and it makes the markets a little bit more difficult if you're
22 00:02:19 --> 00:02:23 constantly looking at fundamentals, okay? Because fundamentally, it's
23 00:02:23 --> 00:02:28 insanity if you're trying to trade fundamentally, you have to be trading
24 00:02:28 --> 00:02:33 technically. You have to be looking at how the market is being manipulated to
25 00:02:33 --> 00:02:40 hurt individuals. Okay, and none of this is good for the dollar index. Okay,
26 00:02:40 --> 00:02:44 let's just make it very plain and simple. There is nothing good in any of
27 00:02:44 --> 00:02:53 this for the dollar at all. Okay, so, in fact, it's beneficial for everyone, for
28 00:02:53 --> 00:03:01 the dollar to go down from where it is right now, everything's just warped and
29 00:03:01 --> 00:03:07 a higher dollar, a firmer dollar, is not something that a lot of the bigwigs
30 00:03:07 --> 00:03:14 actually want right now. So this buy center bounce, sell sign efficiency on
31 00:03:14 --> 00:03:17 the dollar index. And again, this is a weekly chart. Keep your eye up here in
32 00:03:17 --> 00:03:22 the upper left hand corner whenever I'm changing chart time frames, you know, be
33 00:03:22 --> 00:03:27 aware of what I'm using. So this here, we traded down through it a few weeks
34 00:03:27 --> 00:03:32 back, and not to mention all this move here, this was called out in advance.
35 00:03:32 --> 00:03:37 All of this was called out in advance. This entire market maker buy model from
36 00:03:37 --> 00:03:41 here, and then market maker sell model here. Go back and look at all the
37 00:03:41 --> 00:03:45 commentary. Look at every post. At every post on X, everything I've ever stated.
38 00:03:45 --> 00:03:49 It's all there, okay? And the things I didn't say there, I said in my students
39 00:03:49 --> 00:03:54 live streams, and they all have screenshots for it too. So looking at
40 00:03:54 --> 00:03:59 this inversion fair value gap, we rallied up into consequent encouragement
41 00:03:59 --> 00:04:04 of that filled in this inefficiency here with the bodies. Notice that? Okay, so
42 00:04:04 --> 00:04:07 the wick was allowed to go up into the inversion fair value got consequent
43 00:04:07 --> 00:04:12 encroachment there. And then we had a volume imbalance just traded up into
44 00:04:12 --> 00:04:18 here last week. Touch that. And then now, here's where we're at. I like the
45 00:04:18 --> 00:04:24 idea of seeing it eventually? How soon? How fast will it get there? I don't
46 00:04:24 --> 00:04:29 know, because there's so much manipulation right now. And if you're if
47 00:04:29 --> 00:04:33 you're brand new, and you're trying to trade Forex, and you're under
48 00:04:33 --> 00:04:37 capitalized on top of it, and you're impulsive, you don't have a model, you
49 00:04:37 --> 00:04:41 your chances of being profitable trading that asset class is next to zero. Okay,
50 00:04:42 --> 00:04:47 let me be upfront and honest with you. It is so, so difficult right now,
51 00:04:47 --> 00:04:55 trading the Forex markets, I can, I have done it a few times in the period of
52 00:04:55 --> 00:04:59 time where I actively moved away from it, where I'm not actually putting real
53 00:04:59 --> 00:05:06 money behind a. Of the trades this, this climate, this global chaos that we're
54 00:05:06 --> 00:05:10 seeing, this was actually explained to you. It was coming in a lot of the
55 00:05:10 --> 00:05:13 Twitter spaces I did, and just look at it. It's wild, right? It's just
56 00:05:13 --> 00:05:17 insanity, and it's going to get worse, and it's going to be great for the index
57 00:05:17 --> 00:05:21 futures. It's going to be great for the commodity market, but for forex, you
58 00:05:21 --> 00:05:25 know, we're we're just waiting for the next shoe to drop. That's basically what
59 00:05:25 --> 00:05:30 it is once that happens. You know, the wild wild west, big ranges, big
60 00:05:30 --> 00:05:35 extrapolated, right price runs. That's coming. I think it's going to be here
61 00:05:35 --> 00:05:40 before Christmas. So I have optimism in that regard, but until then, you just
62 00:05:40 --> 00:05:44 got to be really, really careful, folks. So I like the idea of this low being
63 00:05:44 --> 00:05:49 traded down to, and if it can get to that low and accelerate the sell side
64 00:05:49 --> 00:05:54 below here is where I think we'll try to gravitate to. Now, it's not a lot in
65 00:05:54 --> 00:06:00 terms of range, but you know, that's what I believe is likely to occur. I'm
66 00:06:00 --> 00:06:04 not bullish at all on Dollar Index. I'm not at all, even though we went down
67 00:06:04 --> 00:06:07 below these relative equal lows. And people might think, Okay, well, that's,
68 00:06:07 --> 00:06:13 you know, some kind of a fake break, and then go higher. You know, I'm happy to
69 00:06:13 --> 00:06:19 be proven wrong, but I just don't see it, folks. I mean, the the necessity for
70 00:06:19 --> 00:06:23 all things coming into an alignment to cause this to go higher based on all the
71 00:06:23 --> 00:06:28 things that's going on right now, just, I don't see it in the cards. Okay? So I
72 00:06:28 --> 00:06:36 believe that the stock market is not done going higher. I believe that we are
73 00:06:36 --> 00:06:43 still risk on in that regard. But so I think this is a risk on market, meaning
74 00:06:43 --> 00:06:46 that the dollar index is likely to trade softer.
75 00:06:52 --> 00:06:57 It's a daily chart. You can see that up here, Dollar Index beautiful, consequent
76 00:06:57 --> 00:07:01 encouragement of that weekly inversion, fair value gap trading up into the
77 00:07:01 --> 00:07:06 weekly volume and balance beautiful. And this low is near term sell side
78 00:07:06 --> 00:07:10 liquidity, then this liquidity pool, and then, because I like both of these here,
79 00:07:10 --> 00:07:14 remember that on a weekly chart? Now, okay, all I did was took those same
80 00:07:14 --> 00:07:17 levels. I annotated on the weekly chart by dropping down the daily chart. It
81 00:07:17 --> 00:07:22 transposes those same levels here through the lens of daily candlesticks,
82 00:07:23 --> 00:07:29 any PD array. Okay, here's a here's a little secret for you, any PD array that
83 00:07:29 --> 00:07:36 I annotate on my charts, if they have a respectable amount of range between
84 00:07:36 --> 00:07:43 them. And in this sense, these two are fitting the bill for that. Between these
85 00:07:43 --> 00:07:50 two levels, half of that is Event Horizon. That is every PD array, every
86 00:07:50 --> 00:07:59 single PD array. Now, right away, some of you, you know skeptics, those ideas
87 00:08:00 --> 00:08:03 cause you to feel like, well, of course, then, if you have 1000 lines on the
88 00:08:03 --> 00:08:08 chart, you know eventually the marks gonna hit one of them. But I'm always
89 00:08:08 --> 00:08:12 calling the ones that I believe are going to be salient. That's the part you
90 00:08:12 --> 00:08:19 keep emitting in your commentary or your little rude remarks. So I believe that
91 00:08:19 --> 00:08:24 this low, this specific higher Time Frame, sell side liquidity pool from the
92 00:08:24 --> 00:08:29 weekly chart, halfway between these two red lines here you want to annotate on
93 00:08:29 --> 00:08:35 on your own chart. Okay? So that will be event horizon, and then this sell side
94 00:08:35 --> 00:08:39 here. So I am not bullish on Dollar Index unless something comes out and
95 00:08:39 --> 00:08:46 world peace is, you know, is discussed, and Iran no longer wants to do anything
96 00:08:46 --> 00:08:50 with nuclear. And North Korea says, you know, we're not going to be involved
97 00:08:50 --> 00:08:54 with anything. Russia says, You know what, Ukraine, you can have everything.
98 00:08:54 --> 00:08:58 We don't want anything. And it's just, it's not happening, folks, that's my
99 00:08:58 --> 00:09:02 point. Okay, Taiwan is not going to get invaded by, you know, China, all these
100 00:09:02 --> 00:09:09 things would have to smooth on out. And this is not happening. Okay? It's not
101 00:09:09 --> 00:09:15 happening. So lower prices are in order, in my opinion, for Dollar Index, we're
102 00:09:15 --> 00:09:23 in an hourly chart now. So this, this imbalance here by side, balance cell
103 00:09:23 --> 00:09:26 sign efficiency, when we traded down through it act as an inversion for your
104 00:09:26 --> 00:09:31 Vega. So I'm waiting to see if the bodies are contained inside of this and
105 00:09:31 --> 00:09:37 if we roll back outside of it. Now, if we trade higher, I gotta charge my
106 00:09:37 --> 00:09:42 battery yet, but we're going to keep that in the video. The if the dog index
107 00:09:42 --> 00:09:45 trades higher and trades above here, then it just means we're just going to
108 00:09:45 --> 00:09:50 hang around and go sideways for a little bit longer time. But longer term still,
109 00:09:50 --> 00:09:54 I think that the dollar is still most likely going to be delivering lower
110 00:09:54 --> 00:10:00 prices 15 minute time frame, same business that is outlined. On the hourly
111 00:10:00 --> 00:10:07 chart. We're using the hourly inversion fair value gap. This is not the same one
112 00:10:07 --> 00:10:11 that was on the weekly chart, by the way, and we just saw this drop down here
113 00:10:11 --> 00:10:20 today on employment data, and this sell side bounce by side efficiency. Is it
114 00:10:20 --> 00:10:24 inversion, fair value gap. So we can start looking at all these specific key
115 00:10:24 --> 00:10:29 levels, the quadrants inside that, and trade up in here and notice the body
116 00:10:29 --> 00:10:34 staying inside that inefficiency from the hourly chart. If it rolls out of it
117 00:10:34 --> 00:10:39 and comes back up and hits it as a low, I would want to see it trade down into
118 00:10:39 --> 00:10:46 that inefficiency, and it has to eat up all of these levels decisively and trade
119 00:10:46 --> 00:10:52 with the close below them. And then any drop below this low here is most likely
120 00:10:52 --> 00:10:58 going to be sustainable within a five minute chart here in dollar index, you
121 00:10:58 --> 00:11:03 can see that there is a Boston valve cell sign efficiency inside of that 15
122 00:11:03 --> 00:11:10 minute time frame, inversion, fair value gap. So if we go down lower, this area
123 00:11:10 --> 00:11:15 in here should act as an inversion, fair value gap that would be used as accounts
124 00:11:15 --> 00:11:18 descendants below here, and then into that higher Time Frame, weekly lower
125 00:11:18 --> 00:11:24 cell side liquidity pool. So this little area here, should we break lower, extend
126 00:11:24 --> 00:11:28 that out in the future? Okay? And it's going to probably be a trigger for a
127 00:11:28 --> 00:11:38 ramp into this low and then further lower. Clear dollar weekly chart, okay,
128 00:11:38 --> 00:11:43 we have inversion fairway gap here. We saw that be utilized bullish fair value
129 00:11:43 --> 00:11:48 gap here, body staying inside of it. And then we're working inside of this weekly
130 00:11:49 --> 00:11:52 premium wick. I put the gradient levels in it. We traded up into consequent
131 00:11:52 --> 00:11:56 encroachment. And the next buy side liquidity pool I like up here, because
132 00:11:56 --> 00:12:04 this week basically took out this short term high. And I would, I mean, this is,
133 00:12:04 --> 00:12:08 I guess, doable, but if it's going to go higher on the basis of a lower dollar, I
134 00:12:08 --> 00:12:17 would like to see it reach up into that full of liquidity for your dollar daily
135 00:12:17 --> 00:12:23 chart and same levels from the weekly chart transposed into the daily This is
136 00:12:23 --> 00:12:30 a little problematic for me, like I I'm not terribly excited here. So for me, I
137 00:12:31 --> 00:12:35 would like to see sustain, continue price run, to take out this high. I
138 00:12:35 --> 00:12:41 don't want to see anything come back down into the weekly Bucha fair value
139 00:12:41 --> 00:12:44 gap, which is what this blue box is here. Remember the weekly chart levels
140 00:12:44 --> 00:12:48 are being shown on the daily, and I certainly wouldn't want it to come back
141 00:12:48 --> 00:12:52 down into this, because it's already done its business here. So we've already
142 00:12:52 --> 00:12:55 seen the inversion fair value gap act as an inversion fair value gap. That's
143 00:12:55 --> 00:13:02 bullish, then the low of the fair value gap here, and then it stopped just shy
144 00:13:02 --> 00:13:06 of consequent encouragement, right there. Notice that that's bullish for
145 00:13:06 --> 00:13:13 me, and I want to see Non Farm Payroll data tomorrow facilitate continuation to
146 00:13:13 --> 00:13:17 the upside for euro dollar. That would make a little bit easier for me to give
147 00:13:17 --> 00:13:22 continued commentary and opinion about what it's likely to do unless it does
148 00:13:22 --> 00:13:26 that, then, you know, I'm just going to keep my cards close to my best and just
149 00:13:26 --> 00:13:31 expect lower dollar, higher Euro. But any individual, specific key levels in
150 00:13:31 --> 00:13:36 here would have to be mentioned at a later time, because what is on this
151 00:13:36 --> 00:13:44 chart right now is pertinent for me. One hour chart. Okay, now this one here, I
152 00:13:44 --> 00:13:47 think, start over here from the left side of chart. This is that weekly
153 00:13:47 --> 00:13:51 bullish fair value gap that did not go down consequent encouragement. Then we
154 00:13:51 --> 00:13:54 have buy side of balance, sell side efficiency comes down to consequent
155 00:13:54 --> 00:13:58 encroachment the bodies respect that. This is a sell side liquidity raid, and
156 00:13:58 --> 00:14:08 ramps it up higher trades into the lower quadrant of that weekly premium wick.
157 00:14:10 --> 00:14:14 This is the low of it. Lower quadrant, consequent encroachment, and then the
158 00:14:14 --> 00:14:18 upper quadrant and the high of that wick is outside the scope of this, this
159 00:14:18 --> 00:14:23 charts data. Then we have an inversion fair value gap here. Now this is
160 00:14:23 --> 00:14:28 something for your notes. Okay, whenever there's an indecisive candle like this,
161 00:14:29 --> 00:14:34 I take that out. I just imagine it's not there. So that low to that candles high,
162 00:14:35 --> 00:14:40 that one down, closed candle, that's what I'm seeing as a fair value gap. I'm
163 00:14:40 --> 00:14:43 not looking at this wick. I'm not looking at this candlestick at all,
164 00:14:43 --> 00:14:49 because both of these candles here traded that range and it closed where it
165 00:14:49 --> 00:14:54 opened. So I don't care to know that data in the formation of my fair value
166 00:14:54 --> 00:15:00 gap. So this low and this candlestick is high that it's. Being shaded there.
167 00:15:01 --> 00:15:03 That's the fair value gap. You can see it being used there with the bodies.
168 00:15:04 --> 00:15:07 It's being respected there also. And then we came down to the high of it
169 00:15:07 --> 00:15:11 here. And then worked a propulsion block, which is a bullish order block
170 00:15:11 --> 00:15:16 here, that only goes down into a previous order block, but it cannot
171 00:15:16 --> 00:15:21 create trade lower than half of its mean threshold, or mean threshold of its
172 00:15:21 --> 00:15:24 body. And it doesn't do those things here, and it trades to the low of the
173 00:15:24 --> 00:15:29 wick on that weekly chart right there. And then we saw the acceleration to the
174 00:15:29 --> 00:15:33 upside. I'm watching this area here to act as an inversion fair value gap,
175 00:15:33 --> 00:15:37 because it also worked that level here, here, and now we're on the other side of
176 00:15:37 --> 00:15:42 it. So I would like to see it continue, staying firm. If we just melt down and
177 00:15:42 --> 00:15:46 go overnight lower than this low here, then you know, all bets are off, and
178 00:15:46 --> 00:15:50 we'll have to see what we get next week. But I would like to see continuation
179 00:15:50 --> 00:15:54 there. Now remember, I'm not trading Forex, so don't take any of my
180 00:15:54 --> 00:15:59 commentary here as an invitation for you to go out there and start trading. Okay,
181 00:15:59 --> 00:16:03 because if I'm wrong, and in this climate, I could very well be wrong,
182 00:16:03 --> 00:16:06 which is the number one reason why I've not been talking about forex, because
183 00:16:06 --> 00:16:10 there's too much manipulation, and the ranges aren't worth the risk, right?
184 00:16:13 --> 00:16:18 15 minute time frame, buy side liquidity here, really smooth highs and that
185 00:16:18 --> 00:16:23 propulsion block shown there, sell side, liquidity pool, RAID went higher. All
186 00:16:23 --> 00:16:28 that business shown here and again, I don't want to see that inversion fairbag
187 00:16:28 --> 00:16:32 give up the ghost and trade back down lower than that, because even though
188 00:16:32 --> 00:16:37 this has gone up and it's sold off, to me, I would use that as an indication
189 00:16:37 --> 00:16:41 that retail would see that as a rejection. It's going to go lower when
190 00:16:41 --> 00:16:47 the dollar index is likely to go lower, that would not be a case here. So I'm
191 00:16:47 --> 00:16:53 not scared by this right here. I know this was the result of employment data,
192 00:16:53 --> 00:16:57 and Non Farm Payroll can always upset what was done on a Thursday of Non Farm
193 00:16:57 --> 00:17:03 Payroll week. So it was the decaffeinated version of employment data
194 00:17:04 --> 00:17:12 released today. The real show is going to be tomorrow, at 830 Eastern Time, and
195 00:17:14 --> 00:17:20 the five minute chart here, we're inside this spot on balance, cell sign in
196 00:17:20 --> 00:17:26 efficiency these two relative equal lows. At the time of me starting this
197 00:17:26 --> 00:17:30 recording, I had already noticed that it went below here, so it was one of the
198 00:17:30 --> 00:17:34 things I was going to talk about. How if we could blow these lows, does it go
199 00:17:34 --> 00:17:38 back up and start working into these levels here, like this, as a bullish
200 00:17:38 --> 00:17:45 inversion, fair value gap, eventually working back up into the high I'm not
201 00:17:45 --> 00:17:50 interested in, and seeing lower euro and higher dollar. And I don't think that's
202 00:17:50 --> 00:17:55 likely to occur, but obviously Non Farm Payroll tomorrow, all the disadvantages
203 00:17:55 --> 00:18:00 that I would see against me as an analyst going over these markets, I'm
204 00:18:00 --> 00:18:07 trying to be transparent and share that. So unlike I have been with index
205 00:18:07 --> 00:18:10 futures, where I was basically coming after like John Wayne saying, This is
206 00:18:10 --> 00:18:14 what's going to happen, I don't have that same confidence in forex, so just
207 00:18:14 --> 00:18:19 make sure that you're aware of that. Going in, don't get goofy and think,
208 00:18:19 --> 00:18:22 Well, I'm going to go in and over leverage. Because if I'm wrong, and
209 00:18:22 --> 00:18:27 again, I can very well be wrong. You know, Europe could just collapse and the
210 00:18:27 --> 00:18:32 dollar just spiked up, go crazy. You know, wild stuff can happen any any
211 00:18:32 --> 00:18:36 minute. I mean, just look what Elon Musk is putting on on it, on the x today,
212 00:18:36 --> 00:18:40 it's, it's getting crazy, right? So just be mindful of all that stuff that's
213 00:18:50 --> 00:18:56 going to be it for today, each day, I'll try to toss in one video with your
214 00:18:56 --> 00:19:00 dollar in the dollar index. Anything that's salient, anything that's useful
215 00:19:00 --> 00:19:06 to me looking at it, I'll make you know, an attempt to share what my opinion is
216 00:19:06 --> 00:19:09 about it, and you can take it for whatever it's worth. It might not be
217 00:19:09 --> 00:19:13 worth anything, okay, but so many of you are asking for this. So this is my gift
218 00:19:13 --> 00:19:15 to you, till talk to you next time. Be safe. You.