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ICT YT - 2025-05-15 - 2025 Lecture Series - NQ Review Presession Trade 05-15-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-05-17 08:39
1 00:00:07 --> 00:00:15 ICT: Hi folks, good morning. So we had real typical lows in here. We have sweep
2 00:00:15 --> 00:00:24 right below that on Wednesday. Short, I took yesterday, and then moving into PPI
3 00:00:24 --> 00:00:30 Fed Chair pal speaking 840 this morning. We have unemployment claims this morning
4 00:00:30 --> 00:00:35 at 830 and then I believe we have something at 10 o'clock. I don't have it
5 00:00:35 --> 00:00:44 in front of me, I apologize, but we had a nice sell off overnight here, and we
6 00:00:44 --> 00:00:55 used Tuesday's pm session first since the fair value gap as a London short and
7 00:00:59 --> 00:01:06 dip down inside of that daily. Let's go through the chart real quick, because I
8 00:01:06 --> 00:01:15 know some of you like, what is going on here. If you recall, we've been bullish,
9 00:01:17 --> 00:01:23 bullish. We were aiming for this. PDA, right here, Mississippi, you want to see
10 00:01:23 --> 00:01:26 it trade above it, come back down. Treat it as an inversion, fair value gap. I'm
11 00:01:26 --> 00:01:31 still under the expectation of that, and try to reach up into this area here,
12 00:01:32 --> 00:01:42 this inefficiency, and back down in just a one minute chart. See that is the fair
13 00:01:44 --> 00:01:48 value cap I told you I wanted to see go above it and come back down in so we
14 00:01:48 --> 00:01:57 worked inside this consequent crochet level here. Now we're just reaching the
15 00:01:57 --> 00:02:01 high of that fair value gap that I told you I was aiming for on the daily chart,
16 00:02:01 --> 00:02:10 and then we have this up here, so it's a lot of range still, but with pal
17 00:02:10 --> 00:02:14 speaking and all other stuff on the plate today, I mean, hey, anything can
18 00:02:14 --> 00:02:21 happen, but overnight we Have that London sell off here. Really, really
19 00:02:21 --> 00:02:30 nice. And then we have a new de opening gap here. I'm not going to cover all
20 00:02:30 --> 00:02:36 this in it's just for you to take a look at it. And then yesterday's business
21 00:02:36 --> 00:02:49 over here, I'll show you the Execute. Executions, that was the business on
22 00:02:49 --> 00:02:53 Wednesday I was walking you through on x, just a very low hanging fruit
23 00:02:53 --> 00:02:58 objective, reaching for that, not requiring that, holding on to it would
24 00:02:58 --> 00:03:04 have been a wonderful run up into here. That's okay, selling short there, as I
25 00:03:04 --> 00:03:09 showed you in review, taking the profit below the relative equal lows, and then
26 00:03:10 --> 00:03:20 we went to consolidation. Okay, no other grades overnight. Slept in this morning
27 00:03:20 --> 00:03:25 london session. And here's the business over here. So what I'm going to do is
28 00:03:25 --> 00:03:30 I'm going to just take this off because it's too much going on for the for the
29 00:03:30 --> 00:03:35 morning, and it's the high of that fair value gap on the daily chart. So I could
30 00:03:35 --> 00:03:41 be wrong about where it's going to go. It may not go up air and clear out the
31 00:03:43 --> 00:03:48 buy stops up here, which I think is a potential scenario if we start to rally.
32 00:03:50 --> 00:03:58 So I'm launching this area here. Too smooth. Okay, so you can see how we used
33 00:03:59 --> 00:04:04 the fair value gap here again, you're projecting these in the future, folks,
34 00:04:04 --> 00:04:08 and I see a lot of people complaining, and don't really get down to the nitty
35 00:04:08 --> 00:04:16 gritty over here, why I did what I did here. But when you create templates or
36 00:04:16 --> 00:04:23 workspaces in your charting platform now, obviously I use trading view, but
37 00:04:23 --> 00:04:30 the the idea of saving workspaces or templates where you keep pertinent
38 00:04:30 --> 00:04:36 information organized, it's that way, like for instance, let's say like this,
39 00:04:37 --> 00:04:42 you want to keep a workspace of only The pm session first resented fair value
40 00:04:42 --> 00:04:47 gaps. So that way, when you toggle that on your chart, will only populate the
41 00:04:47 --> 00:04:54 last five or less 10 Okay, so that way you can see your price delivery in
42 00:04:54 --> 00:04:59 reference to those PD arrays. You can do the same thing with first presented fair
43 00:04:59 --> 00:05:05 value gap. In the New York open, the regular opening range between 930 and 10
44 00:05:05 --> 00:05:10 o'clock Eastern time. You can do it with the Asian session. You can do it with
45 00:05:10 --> 00:05:14 the London session, and that way you're not holding a ton of things on your
46 00:05:14 --> 00:05:18 chart, like as you can see here, I'm only looking at things that are
47 00:05:18 --> 00:05:24 pertinent. And it's because I go through all of my templates that I have, and I
48 00:05:24 --> 00:05:29 focus on the information that's salient for that given market structure. So
49 00:05:29 --> 00:05:34 that's why I counsel you to to be a little bit, I'm sorry, to be a little
50 00:05:34 --> 00:05:39 bit more organized. When you're collecting your information. You don't
51 00:05:39 --> 00:05:43 have to have a chart. Well, first of all, it's impossible for you to navigate
52 00:05:43 --> 00:05:47 if you use every possible thing that I ever referred to as a PD array, it's
53 00:05:47 --> 00:05:52 overkill. So what you need to do is spend time organizing that way the
54 00:05:52 --> 00:06:00 information is at a click, but it's not inundating you with over saturation of
55 00:06:00 --> 00:06:04 information, where it's analysis paralysis. So only thing we're looking
56 00:06:04 --> 00:06:08 for is things that lead to the likelihood of a market running to an old
57 00:06:08 --> 00:06:13 high, old low for liquidity or inefficiencies. So that way it can
58 00:06:13 --> 00:06:17 redeliver and offer efficient market pricing for that given market structure
59 00:06:17 --> 00:06:24 on that given day or moment. So anyway, the daily fair value gap, I told you we
60 00:06:24 --> 00:06:28 were wanting to trade two and above and come back down in and treat it as in
61 00:06:28 --> 00:06:33 version fair value gap here is the consequent crochet or midpoint of that
62 00:06:33 --> 00:06:38 level. This level here is just simply where sell side was. So I'll take that
63 00:06:38 --> 00:06:44 off. You can see that on your insurance. And then we went back above consequent
64 00:06:44 --> 00:06:50 encroachment of that daily fair value gap and trade up into a smaller Asian
65 00:06:50 --> 00:06:55 session. Remember, this is an Asian session first presented fair value gap.
66 00:06:55 --> 00:06:59 It uses that rate of consequent encroachment. Perfect delivery trades
67 00:06:59 --> 00:07:04 back down the consequent encroachment midpoint of this larger daily fair
68 00:07:04 --> 00:07:18 Vegas, watching for it to act as a discount array, and look in here, this
69 00:07:18 --> 00:07:27 candlestick right there. What I'm doing is I'm using this right here. I wanted
70 00:07:27 --> 00:07:29 to see this act as
71 00:07:35 --> 00:07:38 bullish counter race. I
72 00:07:44 --> 00:07:49 Okay, and you can see that right there. He's in consequent crochet of that. So I
73 00:07:49 --> 00:07:54 want to open trade down, and I'm looking at this level here, wanting to see it
74 00:07:54 --> 00:07:59 rally back above and take out this high my stop loss was consequent encroachment
75 00:07:59 --> 00:08:08 of this buy side and balance outside efficiency. So true volume imbalances,
76 00:08:11 --> 00:08:18 so stop is right there, close to it, left, relative equal. Lows came back
77 00:08:18 --> 00:08:24 above, tapped it here, rallied scenario. Here is this bison balance cell, sign,
78 00:08:24 --> 00:08:26 efficiency I added to it pyramiding.
79 00:08:33 --> 00:08:39 See the business there, right there, consequent encroachment of that bullish
80 00:08:39 --> 00:08:45 fair value gap, okay, and months, price rallied out. The stop loss was raised up
81 00:08:46 --> 00:08:52 and saw, you saw where it was at at the time of the recording of this
82 00:08:52 --> 00:08:57 presentation here, and it rallied above Asian sessions two days ago. Asian
83 00:08:57 --> 00:09:02 sessions first, percent of everybody got look at the bodies, respecting that
84 00:09:02 --> 00:09:06 consequent crushment level. And I added to it so you can see, as we treat it
85 00:09:06 --> 00:09:10 down into it just below the consequent crochet level, without confident that we
86 00:09:10 --> 00:09:18 would hit that because we have a breaker here. Look at the bodies, and then look
87 00:09:18 --> 00:09:23 at the bodies over here. So while we didn't see a lower low for the wick,
88 00:09:24 --> 00:09:27 look at the body sink. The bodies are telling you the narrative behind price.
89 00:09:28 --> 00:09:32 So we have a low of this candlesticks close, and then we have the open of this
90 00:09:32 --> 00:09:36 candlestick. So the bodies went lower on this swing low than it did in this one.
91 00:09:36 --> 00:09:44 So that constitutes a bullish breaker, which is this high here, and it's inside
92 00:09:44 --> 00:09:51 of an old lesion session, first present the fair value gap in a bullish context
93 00:09:51 --> 00:09:58 that I was using on the interest that this was going to be treated as a
94 00:09:58 --> 00:10:02 inversion fair value gap. Consequence. Midpoint of it the same price, higher
95 00:10:02 --> 00:10:06 and added more to it there. And you watch me do the actual manual close
96 00:10:06 --> 00:10:11 here, which I'm still, I'm still interested to see if it can go higher.
97 00:10:11 --> 00:10:16 But with all the things going on inside the next hour or less, I don't want to
98 00:10:16 --> 00:10:19 stand in front of that. I don't want to stand in front of PAL the Fed chair.
99 00:10:20 --> 00:10:26 It's a it's a loaded scenario for some pretty wild, explosive price action that
100 00:10:26 --> 00:10:30 may or may not even make any sense. You know what I mean. So that's the business
101 00:10:30 --> 00:10:36 today, and that officially will close my my trading week for this week. So
102 00:10:37 --> 00:10:41 hopefully you found insightful, and so I'll talk to you tomorrow or sooner,
103 00:10:41 --> 00:10:43 Lord willing, be safe. Amen.