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ICT YT - 2025-05-13 - 2025 Lecture Series - ICT Venom Example 05-13-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-05-17 08:39
1 00:00:00 --> 00:00:05 ICT: Hey folks, welcome back. I'll do a quick little review on NASDAQ. And
2 00:00:06 --> 00:00:10 recall we had this fair value gap down here, and I told you, as long as we're
3 00:00:10 --> 00:00:13 above that, we don't close below it, we will remain bullish. The near term draw
4 00:00:13 --> 00:00:20 was going to be this swing high in here, and specifically March 26 2025, high.
5 00:00:21 --> 00:00:27 And then we had the news over the weekend that China and Trump's
6 00:00:27 --> 00:00:32 administration has worked out an agreement that's not a resolution, okay?
7 00:00:32 --> 00:00:39 But obviously that news was received well, and they built in a premium
8 00:00:39 --> 00:00:43 opening and something like that. You never want to chase after that and just
9 00:00:43 --> 00:00:47 go straight in and try to be a buyer of it. Always look for some kind of a
10 00:00:47 --> 00:00:54 discount. And because we opened below that march 26 high, that would be still
11 00:00:54 --> 00:00:59 a candidate to expect it, to draw up into it, but not see much of the gap
12 00:00:59 --> 00:01:04 closure between settlement on Friday and opening here on record trading hours,
13 00:01:05 --> 00:01:12 Monday morning, 930 so this is the next level I'm monitoring. So we traded up
14 00:01:12 --> 00:01:17 into this bearish order block, and this gap between this candlesticks low, this
15 00:01:17 --> 00:01:21 candle sticks high. That's what I'm denoting. I have it set blue because I
16 00:01:21 --> 00:01:24 want to see it, treat above it come back down in treated as an inversion,
17 00:01:24 --> 00:01:28 Fairbank gap, and it does something like that. I would be expecting these highs
18 00:01:29 --> 00:01:36 to be basically tackled if things don't unravel, okay, things can obviously spin
19 00:01:36 --> 00:01:42 out of left field any given moment with all the things that are happening, you
20 00:01:42 --> 00:01:49 know, geopolitical front. So that's what we're seeing this year, gap risk. Gap
21 00:01:49 --> 00:01:53 risk is where we settled previous day, and then when we open up, are we
22 00:01:53 --> 00:01:58 settled? And we open up? Are we settled or we open up? So we're seeing lots of
23 00:01:58 --> 00:02:09 big gaps like this, okay? And these big gaps are many times the very mechanisms
24 00:02:09 --> 00:02:16 is going to slow down the frequency of setups, meaning you have to be a little
25 00:02:16 --> 00:02:21 bit more selective. And that's not a bad thing. It just means that your your rate
26 00:02:21 --> 00:02:24 of frequency is probably going to slow down because all of this movement is
27 00:02:24 --> 00:02:29 being done in the gap event. And then you got to be very nimble with what
28 00:02:29 --> 00:02:35 you're looking for intraday. So with that, we have all these, you know, many
29 00:02:35 --> 00:02:40 things I don't think on my chart facetiously, I know we're going to drop
30 00:02:40 --> 00:02:50 down into a one minute chart, right? And we're going to go back to the opening
31 00:02:53 --> 00:03:01 and 930 should be right here. Okay, this big drop down that's going to be first
32 00:03:01 --> 00:03:08 presented fair value gap there, because it has to be 931 so we have this to
33 00:03:08 --> 00:03:17 that. Okay, so that's Monday's first presented fair value gap of the week,
34 00:03:19 --> 00:03:26 and we're going to extend it to the right, and I'm going to border it with
35 00:03:26 --> 00:03:30 black line like that. Okay, so it denotes it as a specific fair value gap
36 00:03:30 --> 00:03:36 that should extend through the week, and it should be used every time it gets to
37 00:03:36 --> 00:03:40 it, until we close out on the last hour trading, or the last 30 minutes of
38 00:03:40 --> 00:03:45 trading on Friday. All right, so that's the business there. Let me double check
39 00:03:45 --> 00:03:55 this. Close, 865, and a quarter open. 860, 5.75 so this one went higher. So
40 00:03:55 --> 00:04:01 this is drawn correctly. All right. So when we see, like on the day when we
41 00:04:01 --> 00:04:07 open up a huge gap opening. And that'll be shown this way. See a big gap right
42 00:04:07 --> 00:04:14 there. That's 6pm last night right there. And we all this business running
43 00:04:14 --> 00:04:18 out the high we were aiming for on a daily chart in our analysis. And then at
44 00:04:18 --> 00:04:23 London Open exactly at three o'clock in the morning, we get this huge run up
45 00:04:23 --> 00:04:29 here, pumping it up, and then it stays in consolidation and rate at 930 to dump
46 00:04:29 --> 00:04:29 it
47 00:04:37 --> 00:04:43 here, and made this short term low, And then went back to first percent repair
48 00:04:43 --> 00:04:47 value gap sells off, taking the sell side out here during a time when it's
49 00:04:47 --> 00:04:50 primarily bullish, we're looking for higher prices still. Okay, so we're
50 00:04:51 --> 00:04:55 going to go to a five minute chart I'm going to show you which we obviously get
51 00:04:55 --> 00:05:04 here. There is this morning. Setup right here. So we have that low taking up the
52 00:05:04 --> 00:05:08 sell side with this stab below it. So right away, whenever I'm looking for a
53 00:05:08 --> 00:05:13 stop run and I have a bias that's bullish or bearish, in this case, told
54 00:05:13 --> 00:05:16 you we've been looking for higher prices. As long as that daily yellow
55 00:05:16 --> 00:05:20 fair value gap doesn't have a close below it. My interpretation is, is is
56 00:05:20 --> 00:05:24 the mark is going to want to go higher? It's going to reach for discount to
57 00:05:24 --> 00:05:30 premium runs like it drops down to a discount to a PD array that is bullish
58 00:05:30 --> 00:05:36 to run to a higher Time Frame premium array. Okay, so that's why I gave you
59 00:05:36 --> 00:05:40 the higher Time Frame daily. That's up. You can see that fair value. I want to
60 00:05:40 --> 00:05:43 see it try to trade due and turn into an inversion fair value. Inversion fair
61 00:05:43 --> 00:05:46 value gap. But right now, this is where we're at this morning, 930 opening,
62 00:05:47 --> 00:05:52 first presented Fairbank gap is in here on the one minute chart. But this run
63 00:05:52 --> 00:06:01 below that low here is going to be our catalyst for venom. Do we have a single
64 00:06:01 --> 00:06:08 candle run below the south side of the COVID pool. Yes, do we have a candle
65 00:06:08 --> 00:06:13 that leaves that low and goes back higher on one singular pass higher? So
66 00:06:13 --> 00:06:21 we have a sell off at least one minimum number of candles at least one below and
67 00:06:21 --> 00:06:27 then leaving it well, we have one two. And then here we have the big buy side
68 00:06:27 --> 00:06:32 and cell sign efficiency. So we have Sibi, inject the venom, run away from
69 00:06:32 --> 00:06:37 it. So here's the two fangs. Okay, that's the play on words. I call for my
70 00:06:37 --> 00:06:44 Venom account, or Venom PD writing setup. The criteria is we're going to be
71 00:06:44 --> 00:06:50 a buyer, but we have to be a buyer at the opening price here on that thing, or
72 00:06:50 --> 00:07:00 less. Okay, and there's that. So we have to be a buyer at that price or less.
73 00:07:00 --> 00:07:03 Look how much time it spent in distortion. That's what this is, at
74 00:07:03 --> 00:07:18 times. Distortion, 1-234-567-8910, 1112, 1314, 1516, 1717, candlesticks over an
75 00:07:18 --> 00:07:22 hour, just sitting in there, just banging around, not doing much of
76 00:07:22 --> 00:07:27 anything with these small little ranges here, but the range high from here to
77 00:07:27 --> 00:07:31 here, you can clearly see there's an equilibrium price point that it worked
78 00:07:31 --> 00:07:31 off of,
79 00:07:37 --> 00:07:43 yeah, just hovering around that. So that price is just consolidation, all this
80 00:07:43 --> 00:07:48 garbage type price action which is meant to wear you out. Traders are not going
81 00:07:48 --> 00:07:51 to see this as an obvious long. They're not going to see this as an obvious
82 00:07:51 --> 00:07:55 short, because it stays here and it frustrates them. So what you have to do
83 00:07:55 --> 00:08:00 is you have to submit to something and stick to it. So this candlesticks low is
84 00:08:00 --> 00:08:08 risk. And this candlestick or less is an entry for this venom model. Okay, so I'm
85 00:08:08 --> 00:08:18 going to show you the entry. There's that, and it was just simply me looking
86 00:08:18 --> 00:08:22 at where we're at in this range and not worrying about it, stopped me below
87 00:08:22 --> 00:08:28 here. And there is the the entries right there. So it's inside. This candle
88 00:08:28 --> 00:08:35 sticks close and less right there. Here it is, right there, okay. And getting
89 00:08:35 --> 00:08:42 out on the high candle as it pokes above this high and this cell set advanced,
90 00:08:42 --> 00:08:50 buy sign, efficiency, aiming for that. There's my exit right there go. And
91 00:08:50 --> 00:08:53 let's go into a one minute chart. You can see the details through that
92 00:08:53 --> 00:08:59 perspective real quick. Okay, and you can see how it used the first presenter
93 00:08:59 --> 00:09:13 bag out in the 315 to 345 macro, final hour trading. And here's that sell side,
94 00:09:14 --> 00:09:19 runs below, leaves it. Now, if I was going to use the one minute chart, I
95 00:09:20 --> 00:09:26 would had the benefit of looking for an opening of a new long position at that
96 00:09:26 --> 00:09:30 closing price or less, which would have been offered to me here. May have, may
97 00:09:30 --> 00:09:33 have missed it here. This is be fair. It may not have given it to me here, but I
98 00:09:33 --> 00:09:37 had several opportunities here, here, here, here, here, here, and then starts
99 00:09:37 --> 00:09:45 running away at the lunch hour, noon. Okay, so this is what wears traders out.
100 00:09:45 --> 00:09:49 And whenever you see price going sideways, sideways highways, you're
101 00:09:49 --> 00:09:55 going to have to toggle up, okay, go up a time frame or two. So my time frames
102 00:09:55 --> 00:10:02 are obviously one minute, and then jumps to a five, then a 15. And an hourly. But
103 00:10:02 --> 00:10:07 if there's a whole lot of candles on the 15 I might go to the 30 minute first
104 00:10:07 --> 00:10:10 before going into hourly and see if there's any refinement between the
105 00:10:10 --> 00:10:14 levels and PD era seen between 60 minutes and 30 minutes. But generally,
106 00:10:14 --> 00:10:20 that's the hierarchy of where I go to before I get to a four hour then daily
107 00:10:20 --> 00:10:24 chart. But this kind of stuff wears people out, okay, and you're just gonna
108 00:10:24 --> 00:10:28 have to bite the bullet and say, Okay, I'm willing to assume the trade and get
109 00:10:28 --> 00:10:32 in at the price. That makes sense. I saw the setup. The venom model is on the
110 00:10:32 --> 00:10:37 five minute chart, so that's the reason why I framed it with the five minute
111 00:10:37 --> 00:10:42 candlestick for the liquidity purposes, running my stop down below the
112 00:10:42 --> 00:10:48 candlestick that hearses back above the lower target. So again, same thing drops
113 00:10:48 --> 00:10:53 down, injects the venom into cell stops. Here, accumulates those cell stops and
114 00:10:53 --> 00:10:57 then breaks higher. You have to have a city first and then a busy leaving it,
115 00:10:57 --> 00:11:03 or it's not a venom. You got to enter below the second candle closing price,
116 00:11:03 --> 00:11:09 of course, not a venom, okay? And ultimately, the price, you know, starts
117 00:11:09 --> 00:11:14 around, as I mentioned, beautiful, beautiful delivery to the first present
118 00:11:14 --> 00:11:17 to fair value gap of this morning. And it's Monday, so it's the first visit to
119 00:11:17 --> 00:11:21 fair value gap of the week. So you want to make sure you know, your your first
120 00:11:21 --> 00:11:25 one of the week, like this, that kind of stands out no matter what, and then it
121 00:11:25 --> 00:11:31 runs up in. There's the X right there. So just a really nice little wait and
122 00:11:31 --> 00:11:40 see. Wait until it gets down to a discount range. Wait for the sell off
123 00:11:40 --> 00:11:46 when you're bullish, look for your entry models. And if you were not going to use
124 00:11:49 --> 00:11:54 the venom type model in here, you could have used a inversion fair value gap
125 00:11:56 --> 00:12:04 right here. You draw that one out with the with this. Can sticks low, sorry,
126 00:12:04 --> 00:12:09 discount six high. Extend it out in time you want to see price start to rally up,
127 00:12:09 --> 00:12:16 and you can see right there. And I'll draw it out right now, so you're gonna
128 00:12:16 --> 00:12:26 have to defer your entry until a time that the Mark has proven to you that has
129 00:12:26 --> 00:12:36 turned around, actually, this is gonna look different, So we take this border
130 00:12:39 --> 00:12:46 way, and we'll do a background color of inversion.
131 00:12:52 --> 00:12:55 That line picking up a little bit. All right. So here we had this
132 00:12:55 --> 00:12:59 consolidation. Wait for it to lead the consolidation. Prove it's moving higher.
133 00:12:59 --> 00:13:04 That's displacement here. Trading above this high, we're not a breakout trader.
134 00:13:04 --> 00:13:09 It just tells us it's done that damage down here now we're seeing the market go
135 00:13:09 --> 00:13:14 back above old areas of where people will trust that is resistance. Trades
136 00:13:14 --> 00:13:20 above it comes back down lower quadrant of this which is drawn incorrectly. So
137 00:13:20 --> 00:13:36 doesn't look like a bit zone here, right? All right. So we can see that the
138 00:13:37 --> 00:13:42 market eventually trades above it comes back down in lower quadrant, look at the
139 00:13:42 --> 00:13:45 body. See what this is doing. Right here, the bodies are telling you the
140 00:13:45 --> 00:13:50 narrative. Now we traded in the upper half. Any wicks are just allowing the
141 00:13:50 --> 00:13:54 market to take individual that trailer stop losses up they're allowed to do the
142 00:13:54 --> 00:13:58 damage. So the bodies are telling you, okay, we're not, we're not staying down
143 00:13:58 --> 00:14:04 there. So it leaves, comes back down in then this should be what not willing to
144 00:14:04 --> 00:14:09 go back down to lower half. Okay, that that's the theory behind institutional
145 00:14:09 --> 00:14:14 order flow and my PD arrays. Okay, not supply and demand. Not all the stuff out
146 00:14:14 --> 00:14:18 there. People try to pretend that I rebranded. There's rules that never
147 00:14:18 --> 00:14:21 existed in this stuff until I presented it. And we're seeing it not get back
148 00:14:21 --> 00:14:26 down to consequently, consequence here, and it's staying obviously away from the
149 00:14:26 --> 00:14:30 lower half, and the market rallies up. Now you can do several things in here.
150 00:14:30 --> 00:14:36 You can use the volume of balance in here as an entry there and then, or this
151 00:14:36 --> 00:14:40 was your Catal saying, Okay, we are now turning higher. So now we can attack
152 00:14:40 --> 00:14:44 these relative vehicle highs over here into the pm session. Use the first
153 00:14:44 --> 00:14:50 percent square pay gap as a long here rallies on up into another consolidation
154 00:14:50 --> 00:14:57 that high is going to get tagged. Boom. There you go. So there's an approach of
155 00:14:57 --> 00:15:02 using today's price action with one. My first presenter, favorite gap, and also
156 00:15:02 --> 00:15:06 waiting for a structural shift where it's gone down disrupt anyone that's
157 00:15:06 --> 00:15:12 long or entitles to be short, and then comes up and cleans their clock. My
158 00:15:12 --> 00:15:16 entry was just simply just getting in, trusting that the information that I've
159 00:15:16 --> 00:15:21 outlined thus far as it relates to the venom model, would stand true, and can
160 00:15:21 --> 00:15:25 see it tested out. You go on here on youtube channel and look up Venom
161 00:15:25 --> 00:15:29 example, and you'll see me explain what I just showed you here. It's just a
162 00:15:29 --> 00:15:34 another form, using a deferred entry on a turtle suit long, or a turtle suit
163 00:15:34 --> 00:15:39 short. You don't have to be in there where the actual stop Hunt is occurring.
164 00:15:39 --> 00:15:43 Wait for the market to give it to you with the venomo. And it's just, it's
165 00:15:43 --> 00:15:49 like taking candy from a baby. And ultimately, here, nice, nice, nice run.
166 00:15:49 --> 00:15:54 Look at that. You gotta admit, folks. I mean, this is, this is brilliant, until
167 00:15:54 --> 00:15:57 I taught you the first word to fair value gap. These types of runs in the pm
168 00:15:57 --> 00:16:01 session. Completely, completely oblivious. You didn't know anything
169 00:16:01 --> 00:16:07 about it. I am a nice guy, humble dude, listen to me. All right. So 132 it's
170 00:16:08 --> 00:16:11 just the character. Folks don't get wrapped up in it. 130 to two o'clock,
171 00:16:12 --> 00:16:23 three. There, that's your range you want to look through and find your first
172 00:16:23 --> 00:16:31 presented fair value gap, and then extend that forward into here, and
173 00:16:31 --> 00:16:35 you'll see something that will be beneficial for your journaling. I'm not
174 00:16:35 --> 00:16:38 showing you everything otherwise, there's no point for you going to your
175 00:16:38 --> 00:16:42 charts between 130 and two o'clock Eastern time versus favorite gap. Extend
176 00:16:42 --> 00:16:49 it forward, and you'll have another opportunity to study for the pm session,
177 00:16:49 --> 00:16:55 short or long. Okay? And that's going to be it for today. Lord willing. I'll wrap
178 00:16:55 --> 00:16:59 with you on X tomorrow. No promises. In terms of trading, I'm actually having a
179 00:17:00 --> 00:17:06 pretty bad bout of my back going off, so depend upon what the Lord allows for. I
180 00:17:06 --> 00:17:09 will talk with you tomorrow, until then, be safe. Bye.