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ICT YT - 2025-04-10 - 2025 Lecture Series - NQ Review and Extraordinary Volatility 04-09-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-05-01 11:20
1 00:00:27 --> 00:00:30 ICT: Welcome back, folks. Hope you're doing well. All right, just a quick
2 00:00:30 --> 00:00:40 little review for April 9, 2025 for NASDAQ. All right, so you can see we've
3 00:00:40 --> 00:00:46 had a monstrous rally this afternoon. I'll get into that in a moment, but this
4 00:00:46 --> 00:00:53 is the continuous content. I'll get into that in a moment. But this is the
5 00:00:53 --> 00:01:01 continuous contract for NQ Nasdaq futures, and remind you that we traded
6 00:01:01 --> 00:01:10 down to the depths of discount I was outlining last week and then came all
7 00:01:10 --> 00:01:15 the way back up, straight up into these two consecutive up close candles, which
8 00:01:15 --> 00:01:18 is a bearish order block. Now it doesn't mean that I'm saying it's going to go
9 00:01:18 --> 00:01:25 there and then go lower. In fact, it's probably different, probably the
10 00:01:25 --> 00:01:33 opposite. So here we're looking at the hourly chart here, and you can see
11 00:01:33 --> 00:01:37 there's an inefficiency. And now we're looking at the June delivery contract
12 00:01:37 --> 00:01:50 for Nasdaq futures 2025 we have an efficiency here. With a gap and a short
13 00:01:50 --> 00:01:53 term high price of liquidity. It took that shared the consequent encroachment
14 00:01:53 --> 00:02:01 of this inefficiency here. Now I'm noticing that we've had several buy side
15 00:02:01 --> 00:02:09 taken here, here, and smaller short term intraday in here, which you'll see on
16 00:02:09 --> 00:02:13 the trade that I took. But we went to consequent encroachment of this
17 00:02:13 --> 00:02:19 inefficiency. Watch this candlesticks low to this candlesticks body. So I'm
18 00:02:19 --> 00:02:26 encompassing all that price action, to define that inefficiency relative equal
19 00:02:26 --> 00:02:34 highs, they smash through that today and this liquidity void, which is no price
20 00:02:34 --> 00:02:38 being offered at all, no buying or selling in between these two specific
21 00:02:38 --> 00:02:45 times, that's a real liquidity void. Okay, so because it gapped lower, we
22 00:02:45 --> 00:02:52 traded up through it, and then back down through it, and then we're back. We went
23 00:02:52 --> 00:02:57 to the upside. So cost encroachment of that inefficiency is going to be
24 00:02:57 --> 00:03:04 influential today, and you'll see that in a moment, all right, 15 minute time
25 00:03:04 --> 00:03:10 frame. You can see the relative equal highs here, by side the inefficiency on
26 00:03:10 --> 00:03:15 the hourly chart, and just back and forth in here, working inside that
27 00:03:15 --> 00:03:19 range, respecting all the quadrant levels. And here you can see that rather
28 00:03:19 --> 00:03:29 handsomely and ultimately we get this crazy town rally to the upside again.
29 00:03:29 --> 00:03:36 Buy side here sits around 20,000 like we're drop down into a two minute chart.
30 00:03:36 --> 00:03:41 I want you to take a look at this little area in here, this buy side, about South
31 00:03:41 --> 00:03:53 side of efficiency, and will stick high to actually, this is actually, I think,
32 00:03:53 --> 00:03:56 if I'm not mistaken, I believe, check me on this. Don't take my word for it, but
33 00:03:56 --> 00:04:04 on a two minute chart for June NASDAQ, this closing price is just a tick or so
34 00:04:04 --> 00:04:08 below the open of that one. So that means there's a smaller volume of
35 00:04:08 --> 00:04:14 balance, and that's what I'm annotating. I may be incorrect, but for the sake of
36 00:04:14 --> 00:04:18 testing, the old man, just just check it Okay, when you're in charge. So that buy
37 00:04:18 --> 00:04:22 set of balances on efficiency, it trades back down into it and leaves a small
38 00:04:22 --> 00:04:26 little portion. Little portion of it open. See that between the candles high
39 00:04:26 --> 00:04:33 and where these candles lows form, and then price sends a rally up, retraces
40 00:04:33 --> 00:04:38 back down into this inefficiency, the high of it, the buy side, sell side,
41 00:04:38 --> 00:04:42 inefficiency. Then it rallies one more time, just the bump the high, and that's
42 00:04:42 --> 00:04:47 where you'll see me exiting my trade. I shared that on Twitter. I'm not going to
43 00:04:47 --> 00:04:52 upload it or add it to this video, just simply because still want to. So you can
44 00:04:52 --> 00:04:57 watch it over there. There's no music. There's no any sound behind it, just me,
45 00:04:57 --> 00:05:01 just sharing what I did today. And. And we're dropping down into a one minute
46 00:05:01 --> 00:05:05 chart, keeping that two minute buy sign and balance outside efficiency in view.
47 00:05:06 --> 00:05:09 And then we have the first presented fair value gap. So we have this
48 00:05:09 --> 00:05:14 candlesticks high this candlestick is the gap, and then the low of this candle
49 00:05:14 --> 00:05:19 here is the high of the first presented fair value gap of April 9, 2025, for
50 00:05:19 --> 00:05:25 NASDAQ as it relates to the one man chart. So the market trades down inside
51 00:05:25 --> 00:05:28 this little area in here, right on this candlestick. You'll see my entry in a
52 00:05:28 --> 00:05:33 moment, and then it rallies up, and then we have this inefficiency, this
53 00:05:33 --> 00:05:39 candlesticks high to this candlesticks low, no, the volume of balance. So
54 00:05:39 --> 00:05:47 that's what's annotated there. And if you look at the video, I actually had
55 00:05:47 --> 00:05:56 this inefficiency drawn incorrectly. I always fumble on that phone app. I just
56 00:05:56 --> 00:06:02 can't get my rectangles to drop where I want them to drop, and I monkey around
57 00:06:02 --> 00:06:07 with it too much, so I know when I'm annotating, and I know I'm going to have
58 00:06:07 --> 00:06:10 the people come behind me and try to correct me, which is fine, it's good.
59 00:06:10 --> 00:06:14 That means you're paying attention, but the idea is that you need to have that
60 00:06:14 --> 00:06:18 volume and balance annotated, whereas in the video, you'll see me not doing so,
61 00:06:18 --> 00:06:25 but it drops down into the body's respecting the midpoint, consequent
62 00:06:25 --> 00:06:30 encouragement. And then the wicks go down and do the damage, testing that two
63 00:06:30 --> 00:06:34 minute buy side about cell sign deficiency, but not getting back down
64 00:06:34 --> 00:06:38 into first presents of everybody got then it rallies higher, takes the high
65 00:06:38 --> 00:06:43 out here, then retraces and goes all the way back down into you can see it just a
66 00:06:43 --> 00:06:49 peak below that pressure sensor everybody got again going into the 1050,
67 00:06:49 --> 00:06:54 1110, macro. So let's put some lipstick on this and show you where the entries
68 00:06:54 --> 00:06:58 were. Here's the candlestick I entered on and that little, tiny, little
69 00:06:58 --> 00:07:04 sideways carrot symbol that is where I entered. So you can see it as the candle
70 00:07:04 --> 00:07:11 open as it was a bold face, bearish candle. You can't go any more extreme
71 00:07:11 --> 00:07:16 than that in terms of buying right there, buying on the low, and it comes
72 00:07:16 --> 00:07:22 back off next candle. Trades back down. Trades below a little bit my stop. You
73 00:07:22 --> 00:07:28 saw where My stop was. It was initially right below this low here. So dollar
74 00:07:28 --> 00:07:32 risk was rather high, but percentage wise, it's really small relative to the
75 00:07:32 --> 00:07:37 account. So reaching for it to go much higher than I have here. And you can
76 00:07:37 --> 00:07:40 watch the video, so I don't want to steal too much thunder from watching the
77 00:07:40 --> 00:07:45 execution. It's about a 19 minute video, which I'm surprised that x even allows
78 00:07:45 --> 00:07:49 that length. But, you know, it allows me to share a whole lot more things down,
79 00:07:49 --> 00:07:55 doesn't it? But the market rallies up, takes out the short term buy side. And I
80 00:07:55 --> 00:07:58 had a limit order for three of the four contracts that I bought. Again, look
81 00:07:58 --> 00:08:01 down here. It's four contracts entry there had a little bit of heat here,
82 00:08:02 --> 00:08:08 draw down, in other words. And then this arrow here on the next slide, which I'll
83 00:08:08 --> 00:08:13 show you now, you can see that that is the sideways little carrot symbol that
84 00:08:13 --> 00:08:18 shows you I was getting out at that price, right at the high. And then it
85 00:08:18 --> 00:08:22 gave multiple attempts to try to go higher, but then gave up the ghost and
86 00:08:22 --> 00:08:26 finally got stopped out on the last one that was trailed right below here. I had
87 00:08:26 --> 00:08:31 annotated during the recording on my phone that this was a mohawk, which is a
88 00:08:31 --> 00:08:37 little outside the range coloring, which is permissible before it gets to the
89 00:08:37 --> 00:08:41 target, and that that's just a brilliant little example of sticking to the rules.
90 00:08:42 --> 00:08:50 And then the market came back down again, working lower over here. Which
91 00:08:50 --> 00:08:56 brings us to the afternoon, okay? So you can see the business over here, where
92 00:08:56 --> 00:09:00 the trades were entered and where it was finally stopped, out in private on the
93 00:09:00 --> 00:09:06 last single contract. Then as we went through the lunch hour, we had first
94 00:09:06 --> 00:09:10 percent of everybody. Gap again, used here, then here, and they worked inside
95 00:09:10 --> 00:09:16 that new week. Opening gap around the high came back above. It worked an old
96 00:09:16 --> 00:09:22 New Day. Opening gap on the eighth of April traded lower, and this is the
97 00:09:22 --> 00:09:28 spike down in and Trump halts the tariffs for 90 days, and then the market
98 00:09:28 --> 00:09:34 goes ballistic, literally tears the face off anyone that's short and just
99 00:09:34 --> 00:09:41 completely runs amok. This goes like a bat out of hell straight into the
100 00:09:41 --> 00:09:46 inefficiency on the hourly chart here, and traded right into the consequent
101 00:09:46 --> 00:09:50 approach from that inefficiency. We have a small little need opening gap here.
102 00:09:50 --> 00:09:54 Make sure you annotate on your chart. But I want to spend a minute or two
103 00:09:54 --> 00:09:58 because I see a lot of folks are already saying, Why aren't you in telegram? Why
104 00:09:58 --> 00:10:01 aren't you breaking down the market until. Room. Why aren't you telling us
105 00:10:02 --> 00:10:07 real time commentary? And this is why I'm refraining from real time
106 00:10:07 --> 00:10:12 commentary, folks, I understand some of you are really new at this, some of you,
107 00:10:12 --> 00:10:14 most of you probably are in demo only,
108 00:10:16 --> 00:10:21 and you can't appreciate the measure of risk if you're looking at this move
109 00:10:21 --> 00:10:25 right here, which is what I warned about. I said I was going to be messing
110 00:10:25 --> 00:10:28 around this week. Okay, so if I do anything, I'm doing it in the privacy of
111 00:10:28 --> 00:10:35 my own, well, solitude. And that might make you mad. That might upset you.
112 00:10:35 --> 00:10:42 Might feel like I'm being selfish or stingy. No, I'm being responsible. I
113 00:10:42 --> 00:10:46 know the power of the influence I have, and if I say anything in the
114 00:10:46 --> 00:10:51 marketplace, because you've seen me be very, very consistent this year, I would
115 00:10:51 --> 00:11:00 be who were up if I were to say something, and something like this would
116 00:11:00 --> 00:11:06 be contrary to the idea that I would have you as my students watching. Let's
117 00:11:06 --> 00:11:09 just say, for the sake of argument, I wouldn't have done that. You can see I
118 00:11:09 --> 00:11:14 was bullish today, but I did have a short in here. Let's just say, for the
119 00:11:14 --> 00:11:19 sake of devil's advocate example, let's just say that I did, and we were just
120 00:11:19 --> 00:11:23 taking a setup that would take us right down into the new week, opening gap high
121 00:11:23 --> 00:11:26 and maybe the lower quadrant. Maybe, maybe that's something that could have
122 00:11:26 --> 00:11:31 been suggested by me. I'm not saying that it was. I'm not saying that it
123 00:11:31 --> 00:11:34 would have been, but I'm just giving you an example, a hyper hypothetical
124 00:11:34 --> 00:11:42 example. Let's say that that took place, folks. These are one minute candles, one
125 00:11:42 --> 00:11:50 minute. Look at the the velocity of how fast this thing was moving. It was
126 00:11:50 --> 00:11:59 moving hundreds of handles inside of the time duration of 60 seconds. You can't
127 00:11:59 --> 00:12:03 you can't protect yourself from that, folks, your stop loss isn't going to
128 00:12:03 --> 00:12:10 work. It's not going to work. You're going to get out at a very, very grossly
129 00:12:10 --> 00:12:16 unexpected exit price, and it might do greater harm than you're willing or able
130 00:12:16 --> 00:12:22 to weather. So I understand that. You see these big moves, and you think, wow,
131 00:12:22 --> 00:12:27 ICT could have put us on that No, ICT will not. I didn't even take that trade.
132 00:12:29 --> 00:12:32 There are things that's going to happen because of what's going on right now.
133 00:12:33 --> 00:12:39 There's so many geopolitical things, so many things that are in the states
134 00:12:39 --> 00:12:45 that's being done by this present administration. And there's this an
135 00:12:45 --> 00:12:52 unbelievable measure of uncertainty, volatility, chaos, but it's all
136 00:12:52 --> 00:12:59 controlled chaos, and because it's a lot of hand involved manual intervention
137 00:12:59 --> 00:13:03 like this right here, you're you're not going to be able to time it, you're not
138 00:13:03 --> 00:13:09 going to be able to expect it, and Lord forbid something worse happens, some
139 00:13:09 --> 00:13:14 kind of attack or something like that. This is going to be the the similar
140 00:13:14 --> 00:13:19 reaction, and this is why I said that you need to be lowering your leverage.
141 00:13:19 --> 00:13:22 If you're trading, you're doing it on your own accord. And you're taking the
142 00:13:22 --> 00:13:26 responsibility in your own hands. But you have to be very, very careful. And
143 00:13:26 --> 00:13:31 if you're leveraging in these current climate, this condition, if you will, in
144 00:13:31 --> 00:13:36 the marketplace, you're gambling, and you're playing Russian roulette with not
145 00:13:36 --> 00:13:40 only your finances, but your peace of mind and your health. Because if you get
146 00:13:40 --> 00:13:45 caught off side on something like this, and you're a fool and you're not using a
147 00:13:45 --> 00:13:50 stop loss, not that it would do very much protection in this regard here. But
148 00:13:50 --> 00:13:54 let's say you weren't using a stop loss and you were shorting. You had your
149 00:13:54 --> 00:13:59 hinder parts handed to you today, and that type of pain is what I'm trying to
150 00:13:59 --> 00:14:04 spare you from. And you can get upset. You can get mad and say, well, you're
151 00:14:04 --> 00:14:09 just not doing a good job anymore, you know, whatever. I don't care. I'm going
152 00:14:09 --> 00:14:12 to be the person who I am, which is responsible. I don't want to have
153 00:14:12 --> 00:14:17 anyone's comment saying you caused me. Because you're never going to have that.
154 00:14:17 --> 00:14:20 You're never going to be able to say, I caused you to lose money. That's not
155 00:14:20 --> 00:14:24 going to happen, because everything you do in your accounts is done by you and
156 00:14:24 --> 00:14:27 you alone. I'm never telling you when to buy. I'm never telling you when to sell
157 00:14:27 --> 00:14:32 in the telegram channel, we talk about price action, that's it. We're reading
158 00:14:32 --> 00:14:37 candlesticks that is not taking trades, that is not trade signals. And some of
159 00:14:37 --> 00:14:44 you like to believe that it is Hint, hint, nudge, nudge, and it's not and
160 00:14:44 --> 00:14:48 think about how you may have been put into a situation where you felt
161 00:14:48 --> 00:14:55 influenced by what I said and something like this tore your face off. You're
162 00:14:55 --> 00:15:02 gonna have a hard time trusting trading the cons. Steps me, and you'll become
163 00:15:02 --> 00:15:06 bitter and sour, and that'll mess you up, and you may not never come back from
164 00:15:06 --> 00:15:12 it. So doesn't it make more sense that your educator, your teacher, your
165 00:15:12 --> 00:15:17 mentor, your coach, okay, your quarterback, if you will, is looking out
166 00:15:17 --> 00:15:21 for your best interest, even when you don't realize the importance of doing so
167 00:15:22 --> 00:15:27 right now, you're so new, many of you, and you don't even understand the
168 00:15:27 --> 00:15:32 elevated risk that's associated with what we're watching right now. And I'm
169 00:15:32 --> 00:15:39 just trying to capture your attention long enough for you to learn still, but
170 00:15:39 --> 00:15:44 also balance your expectations, and if I can influence you to sit still and not
171 00:15:44 --> 00:15:48 hurt yourself during these periods, then I will have accomplished my goal.
172 00:15:49 --> 00:15:54 Because trading is not always getting in, and writing moves from one point to
173 00:15:54 --> 00:16:01 another. A lot of it is waiting, waiting for sound setups, low risk, high
174 00:16:01 --> 00:16:04 probability, conditions, and folks you can call whatever you want to call right
175 00:16:04 --> 00:16:08 now. And if you happen to be part of something like that that rallied the
176 00:16:08 --> 00:16:13 day, that's that's you just being on the right side of a happenstance. I'm not
177 00:16:13 --> 00:16:16 going to call it luck, because there's no such thing as luck, but you just
178 00:16:16 --> 00:16:21 found yourself coincidentally on the side that just happen to not tear your
179 00:16:21 --> 00:16:26 face off. And I'm certain there's people out there that were not so fortunate
180 00:16:26 --> 00:16:34 today, that I'm trying to make sure that my community isn't going to be
181 00:16:34 --> 00:16:40 influenced by me to fall victim to something like that. And I've always
182 00:16:40 --> 00:16:45 conducted myself like this. I'm never going to try to grandstand and do things
183 00:16:45 --> 00:16:50 that are outside the scope of this really sound logic and personal
184 00:16:50 --> 00:16:55 responsibility. We're never gambling. We're never trying to guess. And if the
185 00:16:56 --> 00:17:02 risks are so inflated and high, I'm going to tell you, and I'm going to act
186 00:17:02 --> 00:17:08 accordingly as a mentor, so hopefully that's at least calmed you down, and
187 00:17:08 --> 00:17:18 when things get a little bit more I guess, I don't know what the right word
188 00:17:18 --> 00:17:23 is, right Now for it, if we leave this elevated volatility stage that we're in
189 00:17:23 --> 00:17:29 right now and come back to a little bit more normalcy. I will return back to
190 00:17:30 --> 00:17:33 giving real time commentary, candle, candlestick by candlestick. But until
191 00:17:33 --> 00:17:37 then, this is the way it's going to be for a little while. Okay, I'll use the
192 00:17:37 --> 00:17:41 telegram channel to share notes and and types of study, things that you can use,
193 00:17:42 --> 00:17:45 but real time will have to be put on the back burner until things settle down in
194 00:17:45 --> 00:17:45 the marketplace.
195 00:17:53 --> 00:17:58 Right? Folks, thanks for watching. Hope you found insightful, encouraging and at
196 00:17:58 --> 00:18:03 least holding you accountable to your own actions. I'll talk to you next time.
197 00:18:03 --> 00:18:04 Lord willing be safe. You.