1 | 00:00:27 --> 00:00:30 | ICT: Welcome back, folks. Hope you're doing well. All right, just a quick |
2 | 00:00:30 --> 00:00:40 | little review for April 9, 2025 for NASDAQ. All right, so you can see we've |
3 | 00:00:40 --> 00:00:46 | had a monstrous rally this afternoon. I'll get into that in a moment, but this |
4 | 00:00:46 --> 00:00:53 | is the continuous content. I'll get into that in a moment. But this is the |
5 | 00:00:53 --> 00:01:01 | continuous contract for NQ Nasdaq futures, and remind you that we traded |
6 | 00:01:01 --> 00:01:10 | down to the depths of discount I was outlining last week and then came all |
7 | 00:01:10 --> 00:01:15 | the way back up, straight up into these two consecutive up close candles, which |
8 | 00:01:15 --> 00:01:18 | is a bearish order block. Now it doesn't mean that I'm saying it's going to go |
9 | 00:01:18 --> 00:01:25 | there and then go lower. In fact, it's probably different, probably the |
10 | 00:01:25 --> 00:01:33 | opposite. So here we're looking at the hourly chart here, and you can see |
11 | 00:01:33 --> 00:01:37 | there's an inefficiency. And now we're looking at the June delivery contract |
12 | 00:01:37 --> 00:01:50 | for Nasdaq futures 2025 we have an efficiency here. With a gap and a short |
13 | 00:01:50 --> 00:01:53 | term high price of liquidity. It took that shared the consequent encroachment |
14 | 00:01:53 --> 00:02:01 | of this inefficiency here. Now I'm noticing that we've had several buy side |
15 | 00:02:01 --> 00:02:09 | taken here, here, and smaller short term intraday in here, which you'll see on |
16 | 00:02:09 --> 00:02:13 | the trade that I took. But we went to consequent encroachment of this |
17 | 00:02:13 --> 00:02:19 | inefficiency. Watch this candlesticks low to this candlesticks body. So I'm |
18 | 00:02:19 --> 00:02:26 | encompassing all that price action, to define that inefficiency relative equal |
19 | 00:02:26 --> 00:02:34 | highs, they smash through that today and this liquidity void, which is no price |
20 | 00:02:34 --> 00:02:38 | being offered at all, no buying or selling in between these two specific |
21 | 00:02:38 --> 00:02:45 | times, that's a real liquidity void. Okay, so because it gapped lower, we |
22 | 00:02:45 --> 00:02:52 | traded up through it, and then back down through it, and then we're back. We went |
23 | 00:02:52 --> 00:02:57 | to the upside. So cost encroachment of that inefficiency is going to be |
24 | 00:02:57 --> 00:03:04 | influential today, and you'll see that in a moment, all right, 15 minute time |
25 | 00:03:04 --> 00:03:10 | frame. You can see the relative equal highs here, by side the inefficiency on |
26 | 00:03:10 --> 00:03:15 | the hourly chart, and just back and forth in here, working inside that |
27 | 00:03:15 --> 00:03:19 | range, respecting all the quadrant levels. And here you can see that rather |
28 | 00:03:19 --> 00:03:29 | handsomely and ultimately we get this crazy town rally to the upside again. |
29 | 00:03:29 --> 00:03:36 | Buy side here sits around 20,000 like we're drop down into a two minute chart. |
30 | 00:03:36 --> 00:03:41 | I want you to take a look at this little area in here, this buy side, about South |
31 | 00:03:41 --> 00:03:53 | side of efficiency, and will stick high to actually, this is actually, I think, |
32 | 00:03:53 --> 00:03:56 | if I'm not mistaken, I believe, check me on this. Don't take my word for it, but |
33 | 00:03:56 --> 00:04:04 | on a two minute chart for June NASDAQ, this closing price is just a tick or so |
34 | 00:04:04 --> 00:04:08 | below the open of that one. So that means there's a smaller volume of |
35 | 00:04:08 --> 00:04:14 | balance, and that's what I'm annotating. I may be incorrect, but for the sake of |
36 | 00:04:14 --> 00:04:18 | testing, the old man, just just check it Okay, when you're in charge. So that buy |
37 | 00:04:18 --> 00:04:22 | set of balances on efficiency, it trades back down into it and leaves a small |
38 | 00:04:22 --> 00:04:26 | little portion. Little portion of it open. See that between the candles high |
39 | 00:04:26 --> 00:04:33 | and where these candles lows form, and then price sends a rally up, retraces |
40 | 00:04:33 --> 00:04:38 | back down into this inefficiency, the high of it, the buy side, sell side, |
41 | 00:04:38 --> 00:04:42 | inefficiency. Then it rallies one more time, just the bump the high, and that's |
42 | 00:04:42 --> 00:04:47 | where you'll see me exiting my trade. I shared that on Twitter. I'm not going to |
43 | 00:04:47 --> 00:04:52 | upload it or add it to this video, just simply because still want to. So you can |
44 | 00:04:52 --> 00:04:57 | watch it over there. There's no music. There's no any sound behind it, just me, |
45 | 00:04:57 --> 00:05:01 | just sharing what I did today. And. And we're dropping down into a one minute |
46 | 00:05:01 --> 00:05:05 | chart, keeping that two minute buy sign and balance outside efficiency in view. |
47 | 00:05:06 --> 00:05:09 | And then we have the first presented fair value gap. So we have this |
48 | 00:05:09 --> 00:05:14 | candlesticks high this candlestick is the gap, and then the low of this candle |
49 | 00:05:14 --> 00:05:19 | here is the high of the first presented fair value gap of April 9, 2025, for |
50 | 00:05:19 --> 00:05:25 | NASDAQ as it relates to the one man chart. So the market trades down inside |
51 | 00:05:25 --> 00:05:28 | this little area in here, right on this candlestick. You'll see my entry in a |
52 | 00:05:28 --> 00:05:33 | moment, and then it rallies up, and then we have this inefficiency, this |
53 | 00:05:33 --> 00:05:39 | candlesticks high to this candlesticks low, no, the volume of balance. So |
54 | 00:05:39 --> 00:05:47 | that's what's annotated there. And if you look at the video, I actually had |
55 | 00:05:47 --> 00:05:56 | this inefficiency drawn incorrectly. I always fumble on that phone app. I just |
56 | 00:05:56 --> 00:06:02 | can't get my rectangles to drop where I want them to drop, and I monkey around |
57 | 00:06:02 --> 00:06:07 | with it too much, so I know when I'm annotating, and I know I'm going to have |
58 | 00:06:07 --> 00:06:10 | the people come behind me and try to correct me, which is fine, it's good. |
59 | 00:06:10 --> 00:06:14 | That means you're paying attention, but the idea is that you need to have that |
60 | 00:06:14 --> 00:06:18 | volume and balance annotated, whereas in the video, you'll see me not doing so, |
61 | 00:06:18 --> 00:06:25 | but it drops down into the body's respecting the midpoint, consequent |
62 | 00:06:25 --> 00:06:30 | encouragement. And then the wicks go down and do the damage, testing that two |
63 | 00:06:30 --> 00:06:34 | minute buy side about cell sign deficiency, but not getting back down |
64 | 00:06:34 --> 00:06:38 | into first presents of everybody got then it rallies higher, takes the high |
65 | 00:06:38 --> 00:06:43 | out here, then retraces and goes all the way back down into you can see it just a |
66 | 00:06:43 --> 00:06:49 | peak below that pressure sensor everybody got again going into the 1050, |
67 | 00:06:49 --> 00:06:54 | 1110, macro. So let's put some lipstick on this and show you where the entries |
68 | 00:06:54 --> 00:06:58 | were. Here's the candlestick I entered on and that little, tiny, little |
69 | 00:06:58 --> 00:07:04 | sideways carrot symbol that is where I entered. So you can see it as the candle |
70 | 00:07:04 --> 00:07:11 | open as it was a bold face, bearish candle. You can't go any more extreme |
71 | 00:07:11 --> 00:07:16 | than that in terms of buying right there, buying on the low, and it comes |
72 | 00:07:16 --> 00:07:22 | back off next candle. Trades back down. Trades below a little bit my stop. You |
73 | 00:07:22 --> 00:07:28 | saw where My stop was. It was initially right below this low here. So dollar |
74 | 00:07:28 --> 00:07:32 | risk was rather high, but percentage wise, it's really small relative to the |
75 | 00:07:32 --> 00:07:37 | account. So reaching for it to go much higher than I have here. And you can |
76 | 00:07:37 --> 00:07:40 | watch the video, so I don't want to steal too much thunder from watching the |
77 | 00:07:40 --> 00:07:45 | execution. It's about a 19 minute video, which I'm surprised that x even allows |
78 | 00:07:45 --> 00:07:49 | that length. But, you know, it allows me to share a whole lot more things down, |
79 | 00:07:49 --> 00:07:55 | doesn't it? But the market rallies up, takes out the short term buy side. And I |
80 | 00:07:55 --> 00:07:58 | had a limit order for three of the four contracts that I bought. Again, look |
81 | 00:07:58 --> 00:08:01 | down here. It's four contracts entry there had a little bit of heat here, |
82 | 00:08:02 --> 00:08:08 | draw down, in other words. And then this arrow here on the next slide, which I'll |
83 | 00:08:08 --> 00:08:13 | show you now, you can see that that is the sideways little carrot symbol that |
84 | 00:08:13 --> 00:08:18 | shows you I was getting out at that price, right at the high. And then it |
85 | 00:08:18 --> 00:08:22 | gave multiple attempts to try to go higher, but then gave up the ghost and |
86 | 00:08:22 --> 00:08:26 | finally got stopped out on the last one that was trailed right below here. I had |
87 | 00:08:26 --> 00:08:31 | annotated during the recording on my phone that this was a mohawk, which is a |
88 | 00:08:31 --> 00:08:37 | little outside the range coloring, which is permissible before it gets to the |
89 | 00:08:37 --> 00:08:41 | target, and that that's just a brilliant little example of sticking to the rules. |
90 | 00:08:42 --> 00:08:50 | And then the market came back down again, working lower over here. Which |
91 | 00:08:50 --> 00:08:56 | brings us to the afternoon, okay? So you can see the business over here, where |
92 | 00:08:56 --> 00:09:00 | the trades were entered and where it was finally stopped, out in private on the |
93 | 00:09:00 --> 00:09:06 | last single contract. Then as we went through the lunch hour, we had first |
94 | 00:09:06 --> 00:09:10 | percent of everybody. Gap again, used here, then here, and they worked inside |
95 | 00:09:10 --> 00:09:16 | that new week. Opening gap around the high came back above. It worked an old |
96 | 00:09:16 --> 00:09:22 | New Day. Opening gap on the eighth of April traded lower, and this is the |
97 | 00:09:22 --> 00:09:28 | spike down in and Trump halts the tariffs for 90 days, and then the market |
98 | 00:09:28 --> 00:09:34 | goes ballistic, literally tears the face off anyone that's short and just |
99 | 00:09:34 --> 00:09:41 | completely runs amok. This goes like a bat out of hell straight into the |
100 | 00:09:41 --> 00:09:46 | inefficiency on the hourly chart here, and traded right into the consequent |
101 | 00:09:46 --> 00:09:50 | approach from that inefficiency. We have a small little need opening gap here. |
102 | 00:09:50 --> 00:09:54 | Make sure you annotate on your chart. But I want to spend a minute or two |
103 | 00:09:54 --> 00:09:58 | because I see a lot of folks are already saying, Why aren't you in telegram? Why |
104 | 00:09:58 --> 00:10:01 | aren't you breaking down the market until. Room. Why aren't you telling us |
105 | 00:10:02 --> 00:10:07 | real time commentary? And this is why I'm refraining from real time |
106 | 00:10:07 --> 00:10:12 | commentary, folks, I understand some of you are really new at this, some of you, |
107 | 00:10:12 --> 00:10:14 | most of you probably are in demo only, |
108 | 00:10:16 --> 00:10:21 | and you can't appreciate the measure of risk if you're looking at this move |
109 | 00:10:21 --> 00:10:25 | right here, which is what I warned about. I said I was going to be messing |
110 | 00:10:25 --> 00:10:28 | around this week. Okay, so if I do anything, I'm doing it in the privacy of |
111 | 00:10:28 --> 00:10:35 | my own, well, solitude. And that might make you mad. That might upset you. |
112 | 00:10:35 --> 00:10:42 | Might feel like I'm being selfish or stingy. No, I'm being responsible. I |
113 | 00:10:42 --> 00:10:46 | know the power of the influence I have, and if I say anything in the |
114 | 00:10:46 --> 00:10:51 | marketplace, because you've seen me be very, very consistent this year, I would |
115 | 00:10:51 --> 00:11:00 | be who were up if I were to say something, and something like this would |
116 | 00:11:00 --> 00:11:06 | be contrary to the idea that I would have you as my students watching. Let's |
117 | 00:11:06 --> 00:11:09 | just say, for the sake of argument, I wouldn't have done that. You can see I |
118 | 00:11:09 --> 00:11:14 | was bullish today, but I did have a short in here. Let's just say, for the |
119 | 00:11:14 --> 00:11:19 | sake of devil's advocate example, let's just say that I did, and we were just |
120 | 00:11:19 --> 00:11:23 | taking a setup that would take us right down into the new week, opening gap high |
121 | 00:11:23 --> 00:11:26 | and maybe the lower quadrant. Maybe, maybe that's something that could have |
122 | 00:11:26 --> 00:11:31 | been suggested by me. I'm not saying that it was. I'm not saying that it |
123 | 00:11:31 --> 00:11:34 | would have been, but I'm just giving you an example, a hyper hypothetical |
124 | 00:11:34 --> 00:11:42 | example. Let's say that that took place, folks. These are one minute candles, one |
125 | 00:11:42 --> 00:11:50 | minute. Look at the the velocity of how fast this thing was moving. It was |
126 | 00:11:50 --> 00:11:59 | moving hundreds of handles inside of the time duration of 60 seconds. You can't |
127 | 00:11:59 --> 00:12:03 | you can't protect yourself from that, folks, your stop loss isn't going to |
128 | 00:12:03 --> 00:12:10 | work. It's not going to work. You're going to get out at a very, very grossly |
129 | 00:12:10 --> 00:12:16 | unexpected exit price, and it might do greater harm than you're willing or able |
130 | 00:12:16 --> 00:12:22 | to weather. So I understand that. You see these big moves, and you think, wow, |
131 | 00:12:22 --> 00:12:27 | ICT could have put us on that No, ICT will not. I didn't even take that trade. |
132 | 00:12:29 --> 00:12:32 | There are things that's going to happen because of what's going on right now. |
133 | 00:12:33 --> 00:12:39 | There's so many geopolitical things, so many things that are in the states |
134 | 00:12:39 --> 00:12:45 | that's being done by this present administration. And there's this an |
135 | 00:12:45 --> 00:12:52 | unbelievable measure of uncertainty, volatility, chaos, but it's all |
136 | 00:12:52 --> 00:12:59 | controlled chaos, and because it's a lot of hand involved manual intervention |
137 | 00:12:59 --> 00:13:03 | like this right here, you're you're not going to be able to time it, you're not |
138 | 00:13:03 --> 00:13:09 | going to be able to expect it, and Lord forbid something worse happens, some |
139 | 00:13:09 --> 00:13:14 | kind of attack or something like that. This is going to be the the similar |
140 | 00:13:14 --> 00:13:19 | reaction, and this is why I said that you need to be lowering your leverage. |
141 | 00:13:19 --> 00:13:22 | If you're trading, you're doing it on your own accord. And you're taking the |
142 | 00:13:22 --> 00:13:26 | responsibility in your own hands. But you have to be very, very careful. And |
143 | 00:13:26 --> 00:13:31 | if you're leveraging in these current climate, this condition, if you will, in |
144 | 00:13:31 --> 00:13:36 | the marketplace, you're gambling, and you're playing Russian roulette with not |
145 | 00:13:36 --> 00:13:40 | only your finances, but your peace of mind and your health. Because if you get |
146 | 00:13:40 --> 00:13:45 | caught off side on something like this, and you're a fool and you're not using a |
147 | 00:13:45 --> 00:13:50 | stop loss, not that it would do very much protection in this regard here. But |
148 | 00:13:50 --> 00:13:54 | let's say you weren't using a stop loss and you were shorting. You had your |
149 | 00:13:54 --> 00:13:59 | hinder parts handed to you today, and that type of pain is what I'm trying to |
150 | 00:13:59 --> 00:14:04 | spare you from. And you can get upset. You can get mad and say, well, you're |
151 | 00:14:04 --> 00:14:09 | just not doing a good job anymore, you know, whatever. I don't care. I'm going |
152 | 00:14:09 --> 00:14:12 | to be the person who I am, which is responsible. I don't want to have |
153 | 00:14:12 --> 00:14:17 | anyone's comment saying you caused me. Because you're never going to have that. |
154 | 00:14:17 --> 00:14:20 | You're never going to be able to say, I caused you to lose money. That's not |
155 | 00:14:20 --> 00:14:24 | going to happen, because everything you do in your accounts is done by you and |
156 | 00:14:24 --> 00:14:27 | you alone. I'm never telling you when to buy. I'm never telling you when to sell |
157 | 00:14:27 --> 00:14:32 | in the telegram channel, we talk about price action, that's it. We're reading |
158 | 00:14:32 --> 00:14:37 | candlesticks that is not taking trades, that is not trade signals. And some of |
159 | 00:14:37 --> 00:14:44 | you like to believe that it is Hint, hint, nudge, nudge, and it's not and |
160 | 00:14:44 --> 00:14:48 | think about how you may have been put into a situation where you felt |
161 | 00:14:48 --> 00:14:55 | influenced by what I said and something like this tore your face off. You're |
162 | 00:14:55 --> 00:15:02 | gonna have a hard time trusting trading the cons. Steps me, and you'll become |
163 | 00:15:02 --> 00:15:06 | bitter and sour, and that'll mess you up, and you may not never come back from |
164 | 00:15:06 --> 00:15:12 | it. So doesn't it make more sense that your educator, your teacher, your |
165 | 00:15:12 --> 00:15:17 | mentor, your coach, okay, your quarterback, if you will, is looking out |
166 | 00:15:17 --> 00:15:21 | for your best interest, even when you don't realize the importance of doing so |
167 | 00:15:22 --> 00:15:27 | right now, you're so new, many of you, and you don't even understand the |
168 | 00:15:27 --> 00:15:32 | elevated risk that's associated with what we're watching right now. And I'm |
169 | 00:15:32 --> 00:15:39 | just trying to capture your attention long enough for you to learn still, but |
170 | 00:15:39 --> 00:15:44 | also balance your expectations, and if I can influence you to sit still and not |
171 | 00:15:44 --> 00:15:48 | hurt yourself during these periods, then I will have accomplished my goal. |
172 | 00:15:49 --> 00:15:54 | Because trading is not always getting in, and writing moves from one point to |
173 | 00:15:54 --> 00:16:01 | another. A lot of it is waiting, waiting for sound setups, low risk, high |
174 | 00:16:01 --> 00:16:04 | probability, conditions, and folks you can call whatever you want to call right |
175 | 00:16:04 --> 00:16:08 | now. And if you happen to be part of something like that that rallied the |
176 | 00:16:08 --> 00:16:13 | day, that's that's you just being on the right side of a happenstance. I'm not |
177 | 00:16:13 --> 00:16:16 | going to call it luck, because there's no such thing as luck, but you just |
178 | 00:16:16 --> 00:16:21 | found yourself coincidentally on the side that just happen to not tear your |
179 | 00:16:21 --> 00:16:26 | face off. And I'm certain there's people out there that were not so fortunate |
180 | 00:16:26 --> 00:16:34 | today, that I'm trying to make sure that my community isn't going to be |
181 | 00:16:34 --> 00:16:40 | influenced by me to fall victim to something like that. And I've always |
182 | 00:16:40 --> 00:16:45 | conducted myself like this. I'm never going to try to grandstand and do things |
183 | 00:16:45 --> 00:16:50 | that are outside the scope of this really sound logic and personal |
184 | 00:16:50 --> 00:16:55 | responsibility. We're never gambling. We're never trying to guess. And if the |
185 | 00:16:56 --> 00:17:02 | risks are so inflated and high, I'm going to tell you, and I'm going to act |
186 | 00:17:02 --> 00:17:08 | accordingly as a mentor, so hopefully that's at least calmed you down, and |
187 | 00:17:08 --> 00:17:18 | when things get a little bit more I guess, I don't know what the right word |
188 | 00:17:18 --> 00:17:23 | is, right Now for it, if we leave this elevated volatility stage that we're in |
189 | 00:17:23 --> 00:17:29 | right now and come back to a little bit more normalcy. I will return back to |
190 | 00:17:30 --> 00:17:33 | giving real time commentary, candle, candlestick by candlestick. But until |
191 | 00:17:33 --> 00:17:37 | then, this is the way it's going to be for a little while. Okay, I'll use the |
192 | 00:17:37 --> 00:17:41 | telegram channel to share notes and and types of study, things that you can use, |
193 | 00:17:42 --> 00:17:45 | but real time will have to be put on the back burner until things settle down in |
194 | 00:17:45 --> 00:17:45 | the marketplace. |
195 | 00:17:53 --> 00:17:58 | Right? Folks, thanks for watching. Hope you found insightful, encouraging and at |
196 | 00:17:58 --> 00:18:03 | least holding you accountable to your own actions. I'll talk to you next time. |
197 | 00:18:03 --> 00:18:04 | Lord willing be safe. You. |