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ICT YT - 2025-04-09 - 2025 Lecture Series - How To Disqualify 1st Presented FVGs 04-08-2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-05-01 11:19
1 00:00:28 --> 00:00:32 ICT: Folks, welcome back. All right, so we're looking at the review from
2 00:00:32 --> 00:00:36 Monday's trading. I was supposed to have this up yesterday, but I just didn't
3 00:00:36 --> 00:00:43 feel like doing it. So same things back, hurting, complaining, I know, but
4 00:00:43 --> 00:00:49 everybody's asking what's going on. Why am I not all that active and just
5 00:00:49 --> 00:00:53 reminding those that don't know? Alright? So take a quick look at the
6 00:00:53 --> 00:00:57 daily chart. This is what we were looking for on Saturday or Sunday. I
7 00:00:57 --> 00:01:01 think it was before the market opened up. I shared my analysis, and I said
8 00:01:01 --> 00:01:08 that we would likely open below this low, gapping down and trading down into
9 00:01:08 --> 00:01:16 this inefficiency here, that's a real liquidity void, and that low here had
10 00:01:16 --> 00:01:24 sell side. And we're going to see how we opened on Monday, we opened below that
11 00:01:24 --> 00:01:32 low at 17,001 13.25 traded lower, made a lower low going into the seven o'clock
12 00:01:32 --> 00:01:39 hour, eastern time in Asia, Sunday night, going into Monday. Here is s, p,
13 00:01:39 --> 00:01:46 same thing. Lower gap opening and again, we're going to look at these two lows
14 00:01:46 --> 00:01:53 here. First, we're going to grade the opening range of this gap here. So this
15 00:01:53 --> 00:02:00 is new week opening gap, where we opened that range we graded half of its
16 00:02:00 --> 00:02:04 consequent encroachment. So new week opening gap high. New week opening gap
17 00:02:04 --> 00:02:12 low. This is for Monday's trading, which, yes, it is hindsight. Okay, so
18 00:02:12 --> 00:02:17 just let you know I shared what I did yesterday. You can see that on on my
19 00:02:17 --> 00:02:25 socials. Look at the lows here on NASDAQ on the left hand side, we have this low
20 00:02:26 --> 00:02:33 and a lower low, while on the S, P, E, S made a higher low. So that kind of told
21 00:02:33 --> 00:02:39 me that we probably did enough for at least the beginning of the week, gapping
22 00:02:39 --> 00:02:42 down like this. I'm not going to go so far as to say that's the capitulation
23 00:02:42 --> 00:02:47 that I think is needed for the low to be in. It's just too many things going on.
24 00:02:48 --> 00:02:53 Tariffs are being pulled back. You know, higher tariffs are being threatened.
25 00:02:53 --> 00:02:59 It's just, it's, it's a mess, so it's going to cause a very erratic price
26 00:02:59 --> 00:03:03 action. So your leverage needs to be dialed way back. We're basically going
27 00:03:03 --> 00:03:10 to get your clock cleaned, meaning smashed. All right? Here is that
28 00:03:11 --> 00:03:15 liquidity, void dimensional daily chart for nq, and look how close got to it.
29 00:03:15 --> 00:03:23 Just above it. That's good enough for covert work, right? Again, divergence
30 00:03:23 --> 00:03:35 between the lows, all right. And then here is NASDAQ over here and this low in
31 00:03:35 --> 00:03:40 the London session. Right below that low here is sell side and same low
32 00:03:41 --> 00:03:49 respectively to that of the ES, and the market traded down, and we're going to
33 00:03:49 --> 00:03:54 look at this little area in here. But for now, just note that I did not get
34 00:03:54 --> 00:03:59 this entire run up. I didn't want to hold on. I wanted something very easy,
35 00:03:59 --> 00:04:06 low hanging for a target, relative equal highs, relative equal highs, and the
36 00:04:06 --> 00:04:15 relative equal highs here and this high here would have been just as good as
37 00:04:15 --> 00:04:21 any, as its upside target not getting any of this. We're going to zoom in on
38 00:04:21 --> 00:04:26 es first, and I'll cover this. So here's the london session levels, the head sell
39 00:04:26 --> 00:04:30 side below it, and here's the buy side liquidity, and another form of buy side
40 00:04:30 --> 00:04:38 liquidity right there. Okay, so 830 time, that's when the auto will start
41 00:04:38 --> 00:04:43 spooling, even when there is no news, and we have that here treats to get the
42 00:04:43 --> 00:04:50 cell side down here. Now I want you to take a look at this, and I highlight the
43 00:04:50 --> 00:04:55 exit. Okay, so that's why you see it in the highlight down here. I'm hovering
44 00:04:55 --> 00:05:02 over top of this arrow, so that way the little X. It arrow appears on the chart.
45 00:05:03 --> 00:05:09 So I got out at that buy side here, and I did not get any of that extra run. And
46 00:05:09 --> 00:05:15 it's okay. Admittedly, yesterday, I kind of regretted having shown what I did,
47 00:05:15 --> 00:05:20 because it really doesn't support the idea what I opened the week with was
48 00:05:21 --> 00:05:26 just be careful and don't you don't try to do anything yourself. But you know, I
49 00:05:26 --> 00:05:30 can't, I can't take it back once I release it and put it in social media. I
50 00:05:30 --> 00:05:33 don't ever delete anything. But I want to zoom in here and walk you through
51 00:05:33 --> 00:05:40 that little area here, so you can see this candlestick here, the down candle
52 00:05:40 --> 00:05:46 and then the next candle here, that is the very first presented fair value gap
53 00:05:46 --> 00:05:56 of 930 to 10 opening range on Monday. So this and we took out the sell side at
54 00:05:56 --> 00:06:03 the London lows when price was in this area here, I felt that it was warranted
55 00:06:03 --> 00:06:09 to make a run for the buy side. Here, again, I'm hovering over that candle
56 00:06:10 --> 00:06:14 exit arrow, so that way you can see that's where I exited that and the price
57 00:06:14 --> 00:06:23 matches that there and that market replay, besides, I showed the actual
58 00:06:23 --> 00:06:28 closing of the position, so I'm not sure what else I could do. We're going to
59 00:06:28 --> 00:06:36 zoom in on the NASDAQ now, the sell side, taken here, the buy side,
60 00:06:36 --> 00:06:42 liquidity, and I'm hovering over that arrow to show you, I got out above those
61 00:06:42 --> 00:06:47 relatively wise and now I did not capture any of this move here, and I'm
62 00:06:47 --> 00:06:50 okay with that, but let's zoom in here. So I want to teach you something in
63 00:06:50 --> 00:06:56 regards to the first visits of everybody got. So this is the structure here. We
64 00:06:56 --> 00:07:04 have original consolidation by side. The market's tanking. It went lower early on
65 00:07:04 --> 00:07:08 in the session on Sunday, we had SMT divergence that never got canceled out.
66 00:07:09 --> 00:07:14 So it set the stage for the lows that were formed in Asia on Sunday night.
67 00:07:15 --> 00:07:22 Those are the weekly lows, and we can start looking for sell side to be taken
68 00:07:23 --> 00:07:27 and then reject that and start to look for buy side, not because we're trying
69 00:07:27 --> 00:07:31 to pick a low, not because I think a low is in. It's just they, they put an
70 00:07:31 --> 00:07:35 extreme gap, which is what I outlined on Sunday, before the market even opened
71 00:07:35 --> 00:07:43 up. So having that expectation of, I'm saying Sunday, aren't I? It was
72 00:07:43 --> 00:07:50 Saturday. I put the video up, then I did a Sunday shotgun x space. So that's
73 00:07:50 --> 00:07:58 what's confusing. I'm a little tired, but the analysis I gave on Saturday and
74 00:07:58 --> 00:08:04 on YouTube, and then I gave a two and a half hour cheerleading session on X in
75 00:08:04 --> 00:08:13 the form of a space, but we had such a large gap lower all expected on Saturday
76 00:08:13 --> 00:08:20 and handed to you before it happened, the market tanked. It took out the
77 00:08:20 --> 00:08:26 London lows during the opening range. So here's opening range, 930 and it trades
78 00:08:26 --> 00:08:32 down into 945-940-6947 and this was the first percent of everybody got. Now I
79 00:08:32 --> 00:08:41 know some of you think that it's this one. Now, why is this not a valid first
80 00:08:41 --> 00:08:46 percent of everybody got you ready. This is your opportunity to pause the video
81 00:08:46 --> 00:08:50 and think about the differences between what I just showed as mine and that one.
82 00:08:50 --> 00:08:56 If you don't pause the video, you're going to jump to me explaining it, and
83 00:08:56 --> 00:09:03 won't give you an opportunity to think about it. I'm all right, so here's what
84 00:09:03 --> 00:09:08 some of you think was the very first presented fair value gap. But why is it
85 00:09:08 --> 00:09:12 not a valid first presented fair value gap? Because you need to look at where
86 00:09:12 --> 00:09:20 it is in proximity to the candles that formed just before it. Watch. See the
87 00:09:20 --> 00:09:26 body on this one, and the body here, and then this one. The only thing it did was
88 00:09:26 --> 00:09:34 trade down a wick through the discount wick of this candlestick. The consequent
89 00:09:34 --> 00:09:41 encroachment this whole area here is a balanced price range. So if there's a
90 00:09:41 --> 00:09:46 gap that would be formed inside here that's not essentially breaking away
91 00:09:46 --> 00:09:51 from anything, is it? Because it's still inside of this balanced price range, so
92 00:09:52 --> 00:09:59 the only portion that would be considered a gap would be what the body.
93 00:10:02 --> 00:10:08 Price or this body to this candlestick. There's no there's no gap there. There's
94 00:10:08 --> 00:10:13 no imbalance here. All this is reflecting is it's leaving this balanced
95 00:10:13 --> 00:10:18 price range with all of this back and forth. And think about this way, this
96 00:10:18 --> 00:10:23 candle opened up here, traded all the way down to that low and closed there.
97 00:10:23 --> 00:10:27 The next candle opens exactly where the previous candle closed. Then it trades
98 00:10:27 --> 00:10:32 up, and then the next candle we open here, do a little bit of moving up, and
99 00:10:32 --> 00:10:39 then trade down to that low, and we stop here. We've had range delivered here in
100 00:10:39 --> 00:10:43 the majority of what this would be viewed as a fair value gap with these
101 00:10:43 --> 00:10:49 candlesticks, and this one went lower. So it's not accurate to call this an
102 00:10:49 --> 00:10:53 inefficiency. It's not. It's part of this larger range that's been treated
103 00:10:53 --> 00:10:58 back and forth. And then when we get this candlestick here, this is actually
104 00:10:58 --> 00:11:06 a gap from this low to that low. So look at the real inefficiency here and there
105 00:11:06 --> 00:11:10 it is, there. Now I'm entering right the consequent encroachment of that there.
106 00:11:10 --> 00:11:13 So there's the difference. Hope you found insightful until I'll talk to you
107 00:11:13 --> 00:11:14 next time. Be safe.