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ICT YT - 2025-02-04 - 2025 Lecture Review February 03 2025

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-04-03 12:10
1 00:00:30 --> 00:00:34 ICT: I'm back, folks. All right, it's going to be a short little market review
2 00:00:34 --> 00:00:38 for Monday, February 3, 2025, you.
3 00:00:44 --> 00:00:49 This is a 15 minute time frame chart for NASDAQ March delivery contract, 2025,
4 00:00:50 --> 00:01:01 and once you take note of this large gap in here is electronic trading hours. So
5 00:01:01 --> 00:01:06 there's this settlement price on previous Friday and Sunday's opening
6 00:01:06 --> 00:01:13 price. So it has your new week opening gap. And I want you to take a look at
7 00:01:13 --> 00:01:17 how we dropped down, created a low in the morning session there, came back up
8 00:01:17 --> 00:01:27 and slowly grinded back up into a gap closure there, five minute chart, same
9 00:01:27 --> 00:01:33 new week opening gap. It's a gap lower or a discount. New week opening gap.
10 00:01:35 --> 00:01:40 Market rallies up again, relatively cool lows, sell side there, and the market
11 00:01:40 --> 00:01:48 breaks below that and then sends it back higher into the gap. All of this price
12 00:01:48 --> 00:01:52 action here, I'll talk about that when we get down into the one minute chart.
13 00:01:52 --> 00:01:59 All right, so here's your one minute chart. Previous Friday's submit price on
14 00:01:59 --> 00:02:05 the close. That's your new week opening gap. High. Opening price, 6pm on Sunday
15 00:02:05 --> 00:02:09 evening, Eastern Time, that is your new week opening gap low. Why is that?
16 00:02:09 --> 00:02:14 Because it's lower than where we settled on Friday. So we have a discount new
17 00:02:14 --> 00:02:22 week opening gap and putting the fib on the closing price on Friday and the
18 00:02:22 --> 00:02:27 opening price on Sunday, 6pm Eastern Time, that gives you your new week
19 00:02:27 --> 00:02:35 opening gap gradients. So here's the lower quadrant, consequent encroachment
20 00:02:35 --> 00:02:45 or mid gap, upper quadrant, and then the high you all right now here is the
21 00:02:45 --> 00:02:55 opening range gap. We'll be using it on regular trading hours, previous
22 00:02:55 --> 00:03:00 settlement, and then 930 opening price. That's what that is there and you're
23 00:03:00 --> 00:03:06 going to draw your fib from Friday settlement down to the opening price of
24 00:03:06 --> 00:03:11 that candlestick at 930 and then the FIB, here's your lower quadrant,
25 00:03:11 --> 00:03:15 consequent encroachment upper quadrant and the high, which is previous day
26 00:03:15 --> 00:03:19 settlement. In this case, it's Friday. Now we're going to blend and add both
27 00:03:19 --> 00:03:23 the new week opening gap and the opening range gap, which is what's shown here in
28 00:03:23 --> 00:03:33 the chart right now. Okay, see there's a convergence of the lower quadrant the
29 00:03:33 --> 00:03:40 consequent encouragement and the upper quadrant. And the market find some
30 00:03:40 --> 00:03:51 support there, here, here, and consolidate into that Representative
31 00:03:51 --> 00:03:57 everybody got, I know it's small, but that's what you have to note. Then we
32 00:03:57 --> 00:04:06 have our bearish city, our trades up into that breaks lower. And if you go
33 00:04:06 --> 00:04:09 into the telegram channel, you'll hear the audio clips I gave in guidance this
34 00:04:09 --> 00:04:14 morning for tape reading the market. Real quick. Let me remind you, my
35 00:04:14 --> 00:04:18 telegram channel is not a signal service. I'm not trying to put you into
36 00:04:18 --> 00:04:22 trades. I'm trying to teach you how to follow the delivery of price action.
37 00:04:22 --> 00:04:28 Look for reoccurring patterns, reoccurring runs on liquidity,
38 00:04:28 --> 00:04:34 characteristics that tend to repeat. Also just teaching that we can see very
39 00:04:34 --> 00:04:38 easy, low hanging fruit. Objectives be met. So draws on liquidity is the
40 00:04:38 --> 00:04:43 primary function of my telegram channel. My executions are not meant for you to
41 00:04:43 --> 00:04:47 be followed. Obviously. I shared my stop losses today. I explained what I was
42 00:04:47 --> 00:04:51 looking for in the beginning of the day. My interest was the new week opening gap
43 00:04:51 --> 00:04:58 consequence. Okay, you can go back and listen to that. When we were trading
44 00:04:58 --> 00:05:02 lower, I was saying that we're in. Rush. We're waiting for them to set the snare.
45 00:05:02 --> 00:05:08 Okay, that means the market's been going lower. I want to see something in my PDA
46 00:05:08 --> 00:05:12 race fail, and I'll teach what that was in a moment. But once it starts to trade
47 00:05:12 --> 00:05:15 higher, my interest was, I want to see if we can get back above the first
48 00:05:15 --> 00:05:21 percent of fair pay gap at 931 candle one minute chart, and then above this
49 00:05:21 --> 00:05:26 Sibi here, and then that Sibi should turn to a inversion, fair value gap.
50 00:05:26 --> 00:05:30 Now, in my haste, you'll notice that there's a volume imbalance in here that
51 00:05:30 --> 00:05:33 should be anchored to that. And you'll see that that candlesticks high right
52 00:05:33 --> 00:05:41 here would be flush with that high but I have old age now my eyes are not what
53 00:05:41 --> 00:05:45 they used to be. So when I'm dropping these little rectangles in, sometimes I
54 00:05:45 --> 00:05:49 might be off. So when you're doing your own annotations, just be mindful that if
55 00:05:49 --> 00:05:53 there's a volume imbalance inside of the inefficiency, always include that, okay,
56 00:05:54 --> 00:06:01 but that inversion fair value gap here, I want to be going long, aiming for this
57 00:06:01 --> 00:06:05 area up here. Okay, so we walked through this morning. I gave you some ideas with
58 00:06:05 --> 00:06:09 Microsoft solid pool, which I'll show you in a moment what that was. But I'm
59 00:06:09 --> 00:06:12 encouraging you to go back and listen to the audio clips and look at the time
60 00:06:12 --> 00:06:17 that they were posted, and then look at your one minute chart. Okay, but in
61 00:06:17 --> 00:06:24 here, in this little, tiny little section right there. My entry is trying
62 00:06:24 --> 00:06:29 to get as close as I can to that line right there, that midpoint. So I watched
63 00:06:29 --> 00:06:35 this candlestick go up, and as it was retracing back down in I aimed for that.
64 00:06:36 --> 00:06:40 And the next candle, I waited for it to open and then start rallying back up
65 00:06:40 --> 00:06:45 into and then that's when I set my stop loss. So I was looking for is it to
66 00:06:45 --> 00:06:48 create the low that candlestick there? And if you look real close, there's a
67 00:06:48 --> 00:06:51 little separation between this candle sticks high, that candle sticks low.
68 00:06:51 --> 00:06:56 That's a breakaway gap. Okay? So the market rallies, comes back down and
69 00:06:56 --> 00:07:03 finds some support at the lower quadrant of the new week, opening gap, and then
70 00:07:03 --> 00:07:09 rallies higher into my target. Then it went into a rather sloppy consolidation,
71 00:07:09 --> 00:07:13 which is exactly what I gave guidance for and to anticipate that. And I wasn't
72 00:07:13 --> 00:07:16 interested in doing anything with that. So I wasn't interested at that point
73 00:07:16 --> 00:07:20 whether it closed the gap entirely or reverse and went lower. I just was done.
74 00:07:20 --> 00:07:27 I found my setup, and I'll show you what that was. Here's the 15 second chart.
75 00:07:27 --> 00:07:31 We're zoomed in. There's that same little area right in here, and if you
76 00:07:31 --> 00:07:34 look at what we got now, here's the execution. You can see where I place my
77 00:07:34 --> 00:07:40 stop loss. Speed this up a little bit. So I'm buying three contracts as it goes
78 00:07:40 --> 00:07:45 into and retraces into the consequence, have a little bit of heat here. Now, as
79 00:07:45 --> 00:07:52 soon as we get there, I'm setting the stop loss. See, there you go. So my
80 00:07:52 --> 00:07:57 target is drawn to new equipment gap, consequent encroachment. And you can see
81 00:07:57 --> 00:08:04 how that delivered. And I'm going to take you up to the first partial. Then
82 00:08:04 --> 00:08:07 again, I'm trying to encourage you to go back to the telegram channel, or go to
83 00:08:07 --> 00:08:10 the telegram channel, which is not monetized. I don't make any money from
84 00:08:10 --> 00:08:15 that telegram channel. But the idea is for you to listen to me how I'm moving
85 00:08:15 --> 00:08:19 the stop loss, when I'm moving the stop loss, and to where. Okay, but I just
86 00:08:19 --> 00:08:26 want to show you the first partial here, I wanted to show you the initial stop
87 00:08:26 --> 00:08:30 loss. Why I was waiting this set the stop loss. It was based on this
88 00:08:30 --> 00:08:35 candlestick after my entry candle to trade back into the consequent person.
89 00:08:35 --> 00:08:38 Once it did that, I felt confident that it would not come back down here,
90 00:08:38 --> 00:08:42 because this would be a breakaway gap. And once it leaves the inversion fair
91 00:08:42 --> 00:08:44 value gap, it should not come back down into it.
92 00:08:56 --> 00:09:02 Above this high here, anything above that would be a wonderful candidate for
93 00:09:02 --> 00:09:04 a partial and you'll see me do that.
94 00:09:13 --> 00:09:19 The volatility of the market today was really, really high. So that's the
95 00:09:19 --> 00:09:23 reason why my my leverage is a lot lower because my stop loss is around 20
96 00:09:23 --> 00:09:28 handles. That's just a little bit higher than I normally have it. And there's a
97 00:09:28 --> 00:09:35 first partial. So zoomed in on a 15 second chart, I want you to see how
98 00:09:35 --> 00:09:40 hovering over top of the entry candle, you can see that little area right
99 00:09:40 --> 00:09:43 there. That's where the actual entry was. So it's real close to that mid that
100 00:09:43 --> 00:09:48 midpoint, watching it manually entering that had a little bit of heat, not by
101 00:09:48 --> 00:09:57 much. And then it rallied back up. The next candlestick reading here. Partial
102 00:09:58 --> 00:10:05 is here. So. And then this one here, and see the exit there. And finally limiting
103 00:10:05 --> 00:10:13 out on the balance there. So entry, first partial, second, partial, final
104 00:10:13 --> 00:10:18 target, right there on the new week, opening gut, consequent encroachment.
105 00:10:18 --> 00:10:24 Real easy, easy, easy, bread and butter setup. Okay, the trick is waiting for
106 00:10:24 --> 00:10:34 that, that trap of traders looking for lower prices and all over 140 handles,
107 00:10:34 --> 00:10:42 or 562 ticks. And if you go back and listen to the telephone channel. I will
108 00:10:42 --> 00:10:45 be prompting you to look at this fair value gap here. And I said, once we were
109 00:10:45 --> 00:10:50 in here, I want to see it trade lower. I favored it going lower, and it did. And
110 00:10:50 --> 00:10:55 then that was your first failure. Okay, so that was the indication there. I
111 00:10:55 --> 00:10:58 said, Okay. Then at that was when I prompted everyone, right when we were
112 00:10:58 --> 00:11:01 down here. I said, you want to screenshot that? And that's what a 20
113 00:11:01 --> 00:11:08 handle scalp looks like. Okay, using very easy fair value gap, get 20
114 00:11:08 --> 00:11:13 handles, move to sideline. I'll tell you what this is in a moment. Why it turned
115 00:11:13 --> 00:11:18 there, but I wanted to see something that would be bearish, be over, taken to
116 00:11:18 --> 00:11:24 the upside, and that's how we know that the bait has been taken and they trap
117 00:11:24 --> 00:11:28 traders, so that all the manipulation has been done with this drop down. But
118 00:11:28 --> 00:11:33 it's very, very hard to read on days like this, so I have to force myself to
119 00:11:33 --> 00:11:38 wait for these types of scenarios where I offer a PD array I'm committed to
120 00:11:38 --> 00:11:43 watching it and even in the initially how it starts off. Go back and listen to
121 00:11:43 --> 00:11:46 the telegram channel, you'll hear me say, screenshot that that's what 20
122 00:11:46 --> 00:11:51 handles look like. So that's against what my primary focus was in the
123 00:11:51 --> 00:11:54 morning, which was the consequent encroachment of the new week opening
124 00:11:54 --> 00:11:59 gap. That was what I was interested in. That was my initial entry interest. And
125 00:11:59 --> 00:12:05 that means I'm bullish, because we have an extremely low opening range gap and
126 00:12:05 --> 00:12:09 new week opening gap, and everybody's going to want to dog pile in and go
127 00:12:09 --> 00:12:14 short. So that's what all this is, is all, you know, lowering traders to go
128 00:12:14 --> 00:12:18 short, so that way they can rip their face off and then use my PD array here
129 00:12:18 --> 00:12:22 to get long, partial, partial and an objective at new week, opening gap,
130 00:12:22 --> 00:12:27 consequent encouragement. Here's the minor cell, cyber coddie pool I was
131 00:12:27 --> 00:12:33 highlighting in the channel. There was a small one here, here, but right in here.
132 00:12:33 --> 00:12:36 This is a bullish fair value gap. That's what was dropping down. And once it goes
133 00:12:36 --> 00:12:41 below here, that fair value gap, I told you to watch real time, it dropped down
134 00:12:41 --> 00:12:44 in debt. And that's why I said screenshot that, because now I'm talking
135 00:12:44 --> 00:12:48 about it. You can hear it. And then the market rallied higher. If it would have
136 00:12:48 --> 00:12:56 kept going lower, you'll listen to a sound clip where I had 20,009 80 as a
137 00:12:56 --> 00:13:02 sell side liquidity pool. If I was not going to get a rip higher. I was not
138 00:13:02 --> 00:13:07 going to go short. I wasn't interested in going short. My interest was up here,
139 00:13:07 --> 00:13:15 and then seeing that PD array here, fail aggressively. First business fairbag
140 00:13:15 --> 00:13:20 app. You can see it trading above here, and it creates that little gap inside of
141 00:13:20 --> 00:13:24 this old city. Sell something bounce, buy something efficiency. I'm going to
142 00:13:24 --> 00:13:29 trade it as an inversion fair value gap. That means it's reversing its role from
143 00:13:29 --> 00:13:34 where it was bearish here initially, now I'm using it to anchor a bullish idea
144 00:13:34 --> 00:13:40 for my entry, going long, targeting my cost encroachment of the new incoming
145 00:13:40 --> 00:13:46 gap. Very, very simple, but not easily executed on in a day like this. I mean,
146 00:13:46 --> 00:13:50 the volatility, like I said, is extremely, extremely high. I usually
147 00:13:50 --> 00:13:57 like 10 contracts, 15 contracts, but when the volatility is just high, you
148 00:13:57 --> 00:14:00 had, you have to scale it back, folks. I understand everybody wants these grand
149 00:14:00 --> 00:14:04 slam home runs, but you can really get hurt fast when the volatility is like
150 00:14:04 --> 00:14:11 this, and it's a little a little bit more difficult than the average run of
151 00:14:11 --> 00:14:16 the bill trading day, and it's because of the tariffs and all the trade wars
152 00:14:16 --> 00:14:21 that's about to take place, and which has actually officially began. So I will
153 00:14:21 --> 00:14:25 look at Forex tomorrow. That'll be part of our morning repertoire now, and I'll
154 00:14:25 --> 00:14:30 give you very simple little scalping ideas for the draws on liquidity, not
155 00:14:30 --> 00:14:34 trade ideas, but the tape read and look for the next draw on liquidity.
156 00:14:42 --> 00:14:46 You hope you found this insightful, until talk to you tomorrow. Lord willing
157 00:14:47 --> 00:14:47 be safe you.