ICT YT - 2024-12-01 - New Week Commentary For Nq Futures
Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 13:42
| 1 | 00:00:01 --> 00:00:04 | ICT: Hello folks, how are you? Hope you have a nice holiday. I'm just going to |
| 2 | 00:00:04 --> 00:00:12 | get right into it here real quick. So it is Sunday, 10 minutes after four Eastern |
| 3 | 00:00:12 --> 00:00:17 | time, pm, ahead of the Sunday opening. So this is what we have on a weekly |
| 4 | 00:00:17 --> 00:00:24 | chart. I have the high in the low delineated for the month of November for |
| 5 | 00:00:24 --> 00:00:31 | NQ. And we have this imbalance in here. This candle is low, this candle is high, |
| 6 | 00:00:32 --> 00:00:40 | this area right in here, and with volume imbalance right there, I'm not going to |
| 7 | 00:00:40 --> 00:00:44 | note that, but have that on your chart as well. So we have buy side sitting |
| 8 | 00:00:44 --> 00:00:55 | here, sell side sitting here. Before the opening bell at 6pm I favor a run here, |
| 9 | 00:00:55 --> 00:01:01 | because I'm trying to avoid picking on top of the market. So if we do |
| 10 | 00:01:01 --> 00:01:05 | continuously move higher. I expect to see us break higher. And one of the |
| 11 | 00:01:05 --> 00:01:10 | levels we can look for is this low, up to this high. |
| 12 | 00:01:16 --> 00:01:23 | So 21,005, 80 and a quarter. So if we break this high, using this retracement |
| 13 | 00:01:23 --> 00:01:27 | to this high, and that's what I'm looking for as a upside objective, |
| 14 | 00:01:27 --> 00:01:38 | should we break above and continue above November's high? Okay, and now we drop |
| 15 | 00:01:38 --> 00:01:39 | down to our daily chart. I'm |
| 16 | 00:01:44 --> 00:01:45 | so see that we have |
| 17 | 00:01:52 --> 00:01:58 | this gap and then this box out of balance, also in efficiency, and we have |
| 18 | 00:01:59 --> 00:02:10 | this volume of valance with this city. So if you note that you can see the |
| 19 | 00:02:10 --> 00:02:11 | bodies are respecting |
| 20 | 00:02:17 --> 00:02:22 | here in consequent encroachment of this range. See it straight down to it there. |
| 21 | 00:02:23 --> 00:02:29 | This is what I was referring to, 1x I said that this promotes very difficult |
| 22 | 00:02:29 --> 00:02:32 | trading for sustained price runs. Doesn't mean you can't take trades. This |
| 23 | 00:02:32 --> 00:02:38 | means that to have sustained price runs, from the daily perspective, this city in |
| 24 | 00:02:38 --> 00:02:48 | here, price has been I held in a little too long, and it's normal because of the |
| 25 | 00:02:48 --> 00:02:56 | holiday, the Thanksgiving holiday in the US makes a little bit less likely to see |
| 26 | 00:02:56 --> 00:03:00 | large flows come into the marketplace. And you saw that last week, a lot of |
| 27 | 00:03:01 --> 00:03:06 | range bound activity. And then we have this portion up here, this gap, which |
| 28 | 00:03:06 --> 00:03:09 | is, let me see here. |
| 29 | 00:03:17 --> 00:03:25 | Okay, and should we break higher and we come back down in this could be treated |
| 30 | 00:03:25 --> 00:03:28 | as an inversion fair value gap. That's why I've highlighted that color, and |
| 31 | 00:03:28 --> 00:03:34 | that might provide a catalyst to send price up above November's high and then |
| 32 | 00:03:34 --> 00:03:40 | to the extension level that I just showed on the daily chart drop down into |
| 33 | 00:03:40 --> 00:03:44 | an hourly chart now, so we have these relative equal highs here. I'm not so |
| 34 | 00:03:44 --> 00:03:50 | concerned about this, this wick, because we almost got to consequent encroachment |
| 35 | 00:03:50 --> 00:03:55 | of this wick with these relative equal highs. My focus was primarily, do we get |
| 36 | 00:03:55 --> 00:03:59 | above these two relative equal highs, and does it show strength and |
| 37 | 00:03:59 --> 00:04:07 | willingness to protract from these highs and then higher. So we're already just |
| 38 | 00:04:07 --> 00:04:12 | sitting on top of that potential inversion fair value gap. This drew on |
| 39 | 00:04:12 --> 00:04:18 | the daily chart, so we had stop run with this low, taking that here you'll see |
| 40 | 00:04:18 --> 00:04:23 | when we get down to 15. And time frame with this is, here's a volume imbalance, |
| 41 | 00:04:23 --> 00:04:27 | but we did have a stop around here, and then we left these relative equal highs. |
| 42 | 00:04:27 --> 00:04:31 | So I'm watching to see what we do in regards to that. Should we get up there? |
| 43 | 00:04:32 --> 00:04:35 | Obviously, I don't know what the opening price is going to be on Sunday. No one |
| 44 | 00:04:35 --> 00:04:39 | knows that. And then if we get above here, I would like to see them |
| 45 | 00:04:39 --> 00:04:45 | completely ignore this, wick this trade higher, and then reach up into |
| 46 | 00:04:45 --> 00:04:54 | November's high, which is up here, a little bit of a range up there, if we |
| 47 | 00:04:54 --> 00:05:00 | lose this low, then obviously that changes things for the week. But I. I'm |
| 48 | 00:05:00 --> 00:05:07 | focusing on maintaining a bullish stance on stock indices proven wrong by a |
| 49 | 00:05:07 --> 00:05:11 | breakdown, then I'll switch gears. But until then, I'm going to stay with the |
| 50 | 00:05:11 --> 00:05:15 | higher Time Frame narrative being bullish. So 15 minute time frame. You |
| 51 | 00:05:15 --> 00:05:20 | can see there's that volume of Valence here on Wednesday. Draw that out. Side, |
| 52 | 00:05:20 --> 00:05:25 | below there, and hit it beautifully, and then extrapolates to the upside about |
| 53 | 00:05:25 --> 00:05:32 | the vehicle. Highs have been taken there. These are the next set of highs |
| 54 | 00:05:32 --> 00:05:39 | I'm looking for. And this is the new week, opening gap. Upper quadrant, |
| 55 | 00:05:39 --> 00:05:44 | consequence, lower quadrant, low and high respectively. And Monday's trading |
| 56 | 00:05:44 --> 00:05:49 | here breaks lower hits the sell side there, left this cell side, which later |
| 57 | 00:05:49 --> 00:05:54 | came back down. And Wednesday took it traded back up into Costco, encroachment |
| 58 | 00:05:54 --> 00:05:58 | of the new week, opening gap. Let me go back here. First Look, really this. This |
| 59 | 00:05:58 --> 00:06:02 | is appreciate the the precision that this, this concept I shared with you, |
| 60 | 00:06:03 --> 00:06:07 | provides we trade back up to the high. But here, break out of it, hit the sell |
| 61 | 00:06:07 --> 00:06:11 | side, come back up. Consequent encouragement the low, new week, opening |
| 62 | 00:06:11 --> 00:06:20 | gap, upper quadrant, sweep below it. False. Break, breaks higher. Low trades |
| 63 | 00:06:20 --> 00:06:24 | back up upper quadrant. Consequent encroachment, consequent encroachment. |
| 64 | 00:06:24 --> 00:06:31 | Twice trades outside of it to SIDBI. Optimal trade entry sells off, sweeps |
| 65 | 00:06:31 --> 00:06:35 | below the level that constitutes the inversion of everybody. Gap we're |
| 66 | 00:06:35 --> 00:06:41 | looking at now trades back up above volume balance, consequent encroachment |
| 67 | 00:06:41 --> 00:06:46 | of new week opening gap trades outside of it. Cleans up some of this cell side |
| 68 | 00:06:46 --> 00:06:49 | in here, rallies back up high the new week opening gap. Consequent |
| 69 | 00:06:49 --> 00:06:52 | encroachment. Low. Look at the bodies respecting it. Conclude encroachment as |
| 70 | 00:06:53 --> 00:06:57 | well. Breaks lower lower quadrant sinks it to the volume of balance. Cell Size |
| 71 | 00:06:57 --> 00:07:01 | taken, lower quadrant, oh, the inversion, fair value gap. The shaded |
| 72 | 00:07:01 --> 00:07:06 | area orange, that's what this is here, trades up, comes back down into new week |
| 73 | 00:07:06 --> 00:07:09 | opening gap. High. Now we're sitting here, even though it looks a little |
| 74 | 00:07:09 --> 00:07:15 | toppy in here, I'd like to see us try to make an intent to to run aggressively |
| 75 | 00:07:15 --> 00:07:21 | higher, to come back down to new week opening gap. You know, can it do that? |
| 76 | 00:07:21 --> 00:07:26 | Sure. I guess it could. I'd like to see it. Maybe let's do it like this. Say we |
| 77 | 00:07:26 --> 00:07:35 | open with a softer opening on 6pm here, in about 90 minutes or so, if that were |
| 78 | 00:07:35 --> 00:07:40 | to happen, and we open softer, and once we get a gap opening lower, trade down, |
| 79 | 00:07:40 --> 00:07:45 | hit new week opening gap and then trade back above the gap. That's trade by this |
| 80 | 00:07:45 --> 00:07:49 | present new week opening gap that would form if it did that trade above that and |
| 81 | 00:07:49 --> 00:07:52 | then come back down and find some support there and then rally higher. |
| 82 | 00:07:52 --> 00:07:56 | That would be a little bit more favorable idea. I certainly don't want |
| 83 | 00:07:56 --> 00:07:59 | to see it open up here and then start to trade back down the new week opening |
| 84 | 00:07:59 --> 00:08:05 | gap. It's a little bit harder to navigate with that on Monday. So trading |
| 85 | 00:08:05 --> 00:08:11 | on Monday would be optimal for me, if we open trade down, in other words, the gap |
| 86 | 00:08:11 --> 00:08:14 | somewhere in here, trade down to new week opening up, and then go back over |
| 87 | 00:08:14 --> 00:08:19 | top the new week of gap this forming this week, if it were to gap lower than |
| 88 | 00:08:20 --> 00:08:25 | or we close that here. Okay, so we have Non Farm Payroll conditions. So you want |
| 89 | 00:08:25 --> 00:08:32 | to try to focus on your setups on Monday and Tuesday and be done by New York |
| 90 | 00:08:32 --> 00:08:37 | session opening on Wednesday. That's for new traders. That's for folks that are |
| 91 | 00:08:37 --> 00:08:41 | new to my concepts or new to trading, because it just gets a little bit more |
| 92 | 00:08:41 --> 00:08:47 | squirrely or difficult after Wednesday's New York opening. Okay, and that's going |
| 93 | 00:08:47 --> 00:08:51 | to be it for this one. And I'll talk to you guys tomorrow, I'm sure, until then, |
| 94 | 00:08:51 --> 00:08:51 | be safe. You. |