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ICT YT - 2024-10-25 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Lecture 46

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 13:42
1 00:00:40 --> 00:00:58 ICT: Well, good morning, folks, hope you're doing well, if you would be so
2 00:00:58 --> 00:01:04 kind, if you can hear me, I'm not sure you can. If you can hear me, let me
3 00:01:04 --> 00:01:07 know. Let me know. On Twitter, just tweet at me and say we hear you, old
4 00:01:07 --> 00:01:13 man, five by five will be sufficient as well.
5 00:01:18 --> 00:01:19 Can you hear me?
6 00:01:22 --> 00:01:25 All right, Chris, thank you so much. See if I can get a couple more people just
7 00:01:25 --> 00:01:33 confirm it. Thank you. Jasmine Eduardo, thank you. All right, so we are looking
8 00:01:33 --> 00:01:40 at the mass back here. I I'm
9 00:01:44 --> 00:01:50 give me a moment. I apologize. Just want to make sure I
10 00:01:51 --> 00:01:57 mentioned the right report that's coming out at 10am we have the revised consumer
11 00:01:57 --> 00:02:02 sentiment data, so it's a medium impact driver. This morning, we had Core
12 00:02:02 --> 00:02:09 Durable goods orders, and that gave us a little bit of a pre market rally, back
13 00:02:09 --> 00:02:13 up into new week opening gap, and then it went a little bit higher than that,
14 00:02:13 --> 00:02:22 obviously. Now I want to take you over to 15 minute chart real quick, and I'll
15 00:02:22 --> 00:02:29 let you see what I'm looking for. I mentioned the other day on Twitter, or
16 00:02:29 --> 00:02:36 they call it x now, we had this big drop down here on Wednesday. So Thursday, I
17 00:02:36 --> 00:02:40 try to kind of calibrate your attention and focus on looking at the relative
18 00:02:40 --> 00:02:43 equal highs. We have relative equal highs here. We just call just clear
19 00:02:43 --> 00:02:47 those. We have these two here and this one here. So I like the idea of getting
20 00:02:47 --> 00:02:56 up to 680 it may use the data at 10 o'clock to go through that we've been
21 00:02:56 --> 00:03:02 fighting the impulsive nature that you know most traders want to pick the tops
22 00:03:02 --> 00:03:09 in bull markets. I know I tried to do that, not technically. I was afraid that
23 00:03:09 --> 00:03:14 a high was forming when I first started trading, and that would usually keep me
24 00:03:14 --> 00:03:17 from taking trades when I was first starting out, thinking it couldn't go
25 00:03:17 --> 00:03:21 any higher, it's at all time highs. It can't go any higher. It just kept going,
26 00:03:21 --> 00:03:28 going higher. So because of the next election year, and because it is a a
27 00:03:28 --> 00:03:33 year that, oh my goodness, what I'm doing, I suppose I'm supposed to hide
28 00:03:33 --> 00:03:39 that kind of stuff, paper trading, here goes my reputation. Alright, so we're
29 00:03:39 --> 00:03:47 looking for reasons to exceed the price go higher, and because it's election
30 00:03:47 --> 00:03:51 year, they're going to pump up and froth up the stock market. Because the
31 00:03:51 --> 00:03:57 public's perspective is that the stock market equates to the economy, and that
32 00:03:57 --> 00:04:03 is not a true statement. Okay? It's a big casino wrong here, doing things you
33 00:04:03 --> 00:04:07 know that has absolutely no bearing on what the outcome is going to be for our
34 00:04:07 --> 00:04:11 economy. The stock market can keep going up. Just look at Venezuela. Years and
35 00:04:11 --> 00:04:16 years ago, it used to be the richest country in South America and lavish, and
36 00:04:16 --> 00:04:21 their stock market kept going up while they were going down in hyperinflation.
37 00:04:21 --> 00:04:26 So we're probably gonna see the same stuff here. I mentioned that 2016 United
38 00:04:26 --> 00:04:36 States is heading to Venezuela 2.0 just look around. You see it? So what we're
39 00:04:36 --> 00:04:43 watching for is what we get at 10 o'clock. Okay, so the first five or 10
40 00:04:43 --> 00:04:47 minutes, worst case scenario, 15 minutes, we'll see what we get. In
41 00:04:47 --> 00:04:52 regards to price delivery, I would not want to take a silver bullet trade
42 00:04:55 --> 00:04:59 Cameron's model. I would not want to take that until after a few minutes. I.
43 00:05:00 --> 00:05:04 Uh, The 10 O'Clock medium impact news driver, because they use these, these
44 00:05:04 --> 00:05:11 types of data points, to mask or smoke screen their real intentions. And it's
45 00:05:11 --> 00:05:18 usually perceived as well. This is what the market does. You know, the market
46 00:05:18 --> 00:05:23 uses buying and selling pressure, and it's generally not that but we'll, we'll
47 00:05:23 --> 00:05:28 be studying these two price levels here, and again, go back and take a look at
48 00:05:28 --> 00:05:35 the the tweets I posted the yesterday telling you to keep your focus on the
49 00:05:35 --> 00:05:38 things that were smooth and left remaining above the marketplace after we
50 00:05:38 --> 00:05:42 had Thursdays decline. So Admittedly, I was working with my private group
51 00:05:42 --> 00:05:46 yesterday. I want to job in a little bit until we get to 10 o'clock, because
52 00:05:46 --> 00:05:49 there's really nothing to talk about right now. So I just want to give you a
53 00:05:49 --> 00:05:53 little bit of backstory. Yesterday, I was working with my private mentorship
54 00:05:53 --> 00:05:57 students. And no, you cannot join it. And no, I don't give signals, and no, I
55 00:05:57 --> 00:06:01 don't teach them any special videos or lectures, as we all hang out. And
56 00:06:01 --> 00:06:06 sometimes I'll, I'll call price with them live, and I was doing it audibly.
57 00:06:06 --> 00:06:10 That means I was recording my voice and sending those little clips to them real
58 00:06:10 --> 00:06:16 time. And it's a lot easier for me to do that than to just, you know, type out in
59 00:06:16 --> 00:06:22 all the individual user groups. So when I do that, there's no recording. Okay,
60 00:06:23 --> 00:06:27 you would have never known yesterday that I took two losing trades, had I not
61 00:06:27 --> 00:06:32 made that public. But they were watching me. They heard me explain what I was
62 00:06:32 --> 00:06:38 looking for, and I was using many of the same PD arrays I used yesterday in the
63 00:06:38 --> 00:06:42 mitigation of those two losses. So the first losing trade I took was a 1200
64 00:06:42 --> 00:06:47 hour loss, which was my normal full position size, which isn't much in terms
65 00:06:47 --> 00:06:51 of handle movement against me, but it's still, nonetheless, it's a loss. And
66 00:06:51 --> 00:06:56 then I took a smaller leverage position because of the loss, and I got burned
67 00:06:56 --> 00:07:01 for 800 hours on that, so total $2,000 less commissions. So I had to work to
68 00:07:01 --> 00:07:05 get that back. Now I told them, admittedly, I said, you know, for them,
69 00:07:05 --> 00:07:08 because it was a morning session after a large range day on the daily chart.
70 00:07:09 --> 00:07:16 Let's take a quick look at that daily chart. Real quick. You know the
71 00:07:16 --> 00:07:22 protocol. If you're very, very new in trading, you want to try to stay away
72 00:07:22 --> 00:07:26 from the morning session after a large range day. And I get the question a lot
73 00:07:26 --> 00:07:31 as to what constitutes a large range day, how do we how we like determine
74 00:07:31 --> 00:07:35 what that is? What is it? What is it measured against? What makes it a large
75 00:07:35 --> 00:07:38 range day, versus you just picking a title and just applying it for that?
76 00:07:38 --> 00:07:46 Well, if you look at what we have. We've had get this off here. So here's
77 00:07:46 --> 00:07:49 Thursday, here's today's Friday's trading and Thursday. Look how much
78 00:07:49 --> 00:07:54 larger this is in relationship to the last several days. Okay, I like the last
79 00:07:54 --> 00:08:01 three days, and it's usually a repeating theme in my concepts, whatever the range
80 00:08:01 --> 00:08:06 average is over the last three days. If it's larger than that, then we're
81 00:08:06 --> 00:08:13 outside of the normal three day range. Now you can have a large expansion day
82 00:08:13 --> 00:08:17 inside those last three days, and it may skew the data, but over time, when you
83 00:08:17 --> 00:08:22 start to see the three day average start to compress and go smaller and smaller
84 00:08:22 --> 00:08:26 and smaller. I got this idea. So that way, for the folks that like to try to
85 00:08:26 --> 00:08:31 say I rebranded something, or took somebody else's stuff and applied a new
86 00:08:31 --> 00:08:34 name to it, necessarily, not what's going on, but I wasn't doing that with
87 00:08:34 --> 00:08:38 my stuff. I bought a book in 1995 it was called street smarts by Linda Rasch and
88 00:08:38 --> 00:08:44 Larry Connors, and they talked a lot about what Toby creeble mentioned in his
89 00:08:45 --> 00:08:49 day trading book, and it has to do with the smallest range in the last seven
90 00:08:49 --> 00:08:54 days. Okay, so I got really interested in that idea of looking for some
91 00:08:54 --> 00:08:58 compression, where the market starts to get smaller and smaller and smaller, and
92 00:08:58 --> 00:09:03 when the market gets really, really quiet. I wasn't able to observe this
93 00:09:03 --> 00:09:07 until I heard Larry Williams describe it in one of his keynote speaking ventures,
94 00:09:07 --> 00:09:11 where he talked about short term trading and day trading. And one of the things
95 00:09:11 --> 00:09:16 that is a precursor to large ranges is an Inside Day. Okay, an Inside Day is
96 00:09:16 --> 00:09:20 what we have here. Here's Thursday's trading. And I want you to take a look
97 00:09:20 --> 00:09:28 at what I mean by that. We have. Don't worry, I have time. You're going to
98 00:09:30 --> 00:09:31 start talking. It's going to move and say, Well,
99 00:09:32 --> 00:09:34 you know, there it is.
100 00:09:34 --> 00:09:38 You miss me having it. I know you have, I know you have the old man news.
101 00:09:38 --> 00:09:44 Alright? So here's Thursday's range. But now notice also Thursday's range is
102 00:09:44 --> 00:09:50 inside of Wednesday's range, which is here. Now this is not, this is not my
103 00:09:52 --> 00:09:58 this is not my work. This is something that I learned from Toby Crabill and
104 00:09:59 --> 00:10:05 Linda rashman Lee. Connor's book, and the ideas were further helpful to me
105 00:10:05 --> 00:10:11 when I applied what Larry Williams was talking about, specifically range
106 00:10:11 --> 00:10:18 contraction and the idea of looking for the market to get into these small
107 00:10:18 --> 00:10:27 little ranges. And I'll take my hoodie off here when the ranges get smaller, or
108 00:10:27 --> 00:10:33 if they get relatively smaller than they have been over a predetermined number of
109 00:10:33 --> 00:10:39 days or periods, Toby had this idea that the smallest range in the last seven
110 00:10:39 --> 00:10:44 days usually is a precursor to something, and without feeling that
111 00:10:44 --> 00:10:47 thunder from his book, and you can get it off Amazon. It's not the original
112 00:10:47 --> 00:10:51 book. I have the original book. It's very, very expensive. You're going to
113 00:10:51 --> 00:10:56 pay a lot of money for it, but you can get, like, a really poor photo copied
114 00:10:56 --> 00:10:59 edition of it, but you're still going to get things, though. So I have both. I
115 00:10:59 --> 00:11:04 have, I have the one that's sold on Amazon, and I have the actual original
116 00:11:04 --> 00:11:10 first print. So you can see we cleared that initial buy side there. But real
117 00:11:10 --> 00:11:14 quick, let me get into here's the here's Wednesday's trading, the high of
118 00:11:14 --> 00:11:18 Wednesday and the lowest of Wednesday. And then Thursday. We had the smaller
119 00:11:18 --> 00:11:22 little range inside of it, so the low of yesterday or Thursday was higher than
120 00:11:22 --> 00:11:27 Wednesday's low, and the high was lower than the previous day's high. So this is
121 00:11:27 --> 00:11:32 referred to as an Inside Day. Now, if you look for this type of thing to form,
122 00:11:33 --> 00:11:42 it usually will set off a let's put it this way. There's a lot of traders that
123 00:11:42 --> 00:11:46 are using volatility and filtering. When the market is more likely to or more
124 00:11:46 --> 00:11:51 prone to create these expansion moves. It doesn't give you direction. Just
125 00:11:51 --> 00:11:54 because it creates an Inside Day. You have to have some kind of measure of
126 00:11:54 --> 00:11:57 high timing frame order flow, understanding where the trend is. You
127 00:11:57 --> 00:12:01 know where it's going to go, or, as I teach it, the draw on liquidity. So on
128 00:12:01 --> 00:12:04 Thursday, I talked about how your focus should be on where the things are left
129 00:12:04 --> 00:12:09 smooth. Okay, so relative equal highs. So, but if you want to use how I use it,
130 00:12:09 --> 00:12:12 I look over the last three days, and when ranges start to compress below the
131 00:12:12 --> 00:12:17 average of the last three days, I kind of get excited about that, because I
132 00:12:17 --> 00:12:21 know I have a large range candidate performing, but after a large range day,
133 00:12:21 --> 00:12:26 I've taught you that you want to try to avoid the morning session now me being
134 00:12:26 --> 00:12:30 ICT and doing ICT things I like to go out here and share with my students and
135 00:12:30 --> 00:12:36 do things that the average bear can Well, the average bear and I were in the
136 00:12:36 --> 00:12:40 same category yesterday. I tried to do something that wasn't able to pan out in
137 00:12:40 --> 00:12:44 my favor for the first two times in the morning session. Now I told my students.
138 00:12:44 --> 00:12:49 I said, now they they should sit still and just go home with the L, go home
139 00:12:49 --> 00:12:52 with the, you know, the drawdown, and just eat it and come back the next day
140 00:12:52 --> 00:12:58 and try to recuperate it. But because I'm who I am, and I just don't, I don't
141 00:12:58 --> 00:13:04 like that, excellence is my destination, and I'm always pursuing it. So I went in
142 00:13:04 --> 00:13:09 and obviously I mitigated that so and then came back with a $12,000 day, which
143 00:13:10 --> 00:13:16 I know that kind of stings, but the 15 minute time frame will drop back into
144 00:13:16 --> 00:13:25 that real quick. You can see how we had Thursdays drop down and retail was all
145 00:13:25 --> 00:13:28 over, just thinking, Okay, we've talked it's over. The market's going to go in.
146 00:13:28 --> 00:13:32 Bears are in control. You know, that type of rhetoric. And then we had this
147 00:13:32 --> 00:13:36 really, really difficult morning session. We didn't have sustained price
148 00:13:36 --> 00:13:39 runs. It's a lot of give and take back and forth, a lot of scribbling. Okay,
149 00:13:39 --> 00:13:43 imagine your five year old with a crayon for the first time, and they're, they're
150 00:13:43 --> 00:13:46 looking at, they're looking at your budget reviews that you're using for
151 00:13:46 --> 00:13:50 your work presentation, and they color all over top of it. And this is kind of
152 00:13:50 --> 00:13:53 like what it looks like, where it's back and forth, back and forth. It's very,
153 00:13:53 --> 00:13:57 very fuzzy. Okay, so what I refer to as fuzzy price action, and the only reason
154 00:13:57 --> 00:14:00 why I came with that term is because I was trying to teach my kids younger, and
155 00:14:00 --> 00:14:05 it just stuck. Okay, so it's, it's, that's my highly technical layman's
156 00:14:05 --> 00:14:12 term. The this high here is a little bit higher than that one, but nonetheless,
157 00:14:12 --> 00:14:16 my my focus has been here, and on Thursday, I was prompting you go back to
158 00:14:16 --> 00:14:20 your charts and look at anything that was relatively smooth in terms of highs
159 00:14:21 --> 00:14:26 retail would see that as classic area to defend any short positions. And I'm
160 00:14:26 --> 00:14:30 quite sure larger funds have positions with stops above that, and we're really
161 00:14:30 --> 00:14:35 getting close to doing that now we are at the 10 o'clock time, and it's dropped
162 00:14:35 --> 00:14:43 into a one minute chart. And you can see how we use the consequent encroachment
163 00:14:43 --> 00:14:46 of the new week opening gap. Right there. Perfect thing. You probably would
164 00:14:46 --> 00:14:51 never know that was likely to occur if this guy on the internet did come out
165 00:14:51 --> 00:15:02 and talk about so here's our run on those buy stops. You. Yeah, okay. And
166 00:15:02 --> 00:15:06 now we'll, we'll sit and wait for a few minutes and see what it wants to do. Now
167 00:15:06 --> 00:15:10 we have a huge gap. So if you look at the
168 00:15:13 --> 00:15:13 ready trading hours
169 00:15:17 --> 00:15:22 right here, this is beautiful. That like, that's my favorite type of range
170 00:15:22 --> 00:15:30 amount for looking for gap ideas. But because we have Friday, that's trading
171 00:15:30 --> 00:15:35 day of the week, because we have had a disruption on Wednesday where traders
172 00:15:35 --> 00:15:39 may delay of the week, and then we had Thursday Inside Day. Then we have what
173 00:15:39 --> 00:15:43 we have, a candidate for Friday being a large range day, with my prompting on
174 00:15:43 --> 00:15:46 Thursday, saying that your focus shouldn't be on going lower, because we
175 00:15:46 --> 00:15:50 already had to sell off. Retail is already expecting all that. So they're
176 00:15:50 --> 00:15:55 going to use Friday to do their run on unfinished business. Unfinished business
177 00:15:55 --> 00:16:00 is the orders up above the 659, and a quarter, and the higher level that I
178 00:16:00 --> 00:16:10 can't see because this candlestick, what is that? 680 Okay, so 680 level, so that
179 00:16:10 --> 00:16:16 buy side, both levels of buy side, have been engaged. Now I'm not suggesting or
180 00:16:16 --> 00:16:19 trying to make the case that it would want to come all the way back down into
181 00:16:19 --> 00:16:23 the gap. These are, this is a day where I would say, Okay, this is probably
182 00:16:23 --> 00:16:27 going to be a day where we leave the gap intact and not even try to go back to
183 00:16:27 --> 00:16:32 it. It can have a retracement. But because we are in a primary bull market,
184 00:16:32 --> 00:16:36 we're in an election year, and we're just literally less than two weeks away
185 00:16:36 --> 00:16:43 from the election. If you believe it, the the probabilities of going back down
186 00:16:43 --> 00:16:49 to that gap, based on what we're seeing here, is not as high as it would be if
187 00:16:49 --> 00:16:55 it were like in this area here. And whenever you have a opening gap like
188 00:16:55 --> 00:17:00 this on a Friday, after a large range day, then created a subsequent on
189 00:17:00 --> 00:17:04 Thursday, smaller range day, all based on the daily chart. That compression,
190 00:17:04 --> 00:17:08 that small, tightening up. It's kind of like a spring. Okay, I'm going to borrow
191 00:17:08 --> 00:17:10 the term actually all your Williams used. It's kind of like taking a spring,
192 00:17:10 --> 00:17:14 a metal spring, and twisting it tighter and tighter and tighter until you can't
193 00:17:14 --> 00:17:18 compress it anymore. And then when you let go of it and just throw it away, it
194 00:17:18 --> 00:17:22 just, it springs. It just, it's a lot of animation. It doesn't just move a little
195 00:17:22 --> 00:17:25 bit. It's bouncing all over the place, and it's moving around a lot. Well,
196 00:17:26 --> 00:17:31 that's what small Range Days, or Inside Days create. It creates that probability
197 00:17:31 --> 00:17:37 that you're going to get a large range day. Now, a large range day has the
198 00:17:37 --> 00:17:44 benefit of having very repeating characteristics. And I'll show you what
199 00:17:44 --> 00:17:45 I mean by that real quick.
200 00:17:55 --> 00:18:03 And I'm trying to draw a rather crude depiction of what a Open, High, Low,
201 00:18:03 --> 00:18:10 Close bar would look like on a daily chart. Okay, so now imagine we had the
202 00:18:10 --> 00:18:15 Thursday small range on the daily chart. And this is hypothetically a daily
203 00:18:15 --> 00:18:20 candlestick, and then you have Thursdays small range day. And then not to scale,
204 00:18:21 --> 00:18:34 but Wednesdays larger range. Okay, so we have Wednesday's daily candlestick or
205 00:18:34 --> 00:18:39 bar. Then Thursday smaller, which is it's higher low than Wednesdays and
206 00:18:39 --> 00:18:45 lower high than Wednesdays, respectively. And then we have Thursday
207 00:18:45 --> 00:18:49 closing with a small range day. And then Friday, we have all this buy side up
208 00:18:49 --> 00:18:53 here that has not been engaged after Thursdays went lower, smashed
209 00:18:53 --> 00:18:58 everybody's expectation of continuation. Now everybody is tricked into thinking
210 00:18:58 --> 00:19:02 the market's going to go what lower. So because we have the probabilities of
211 00:19:02 --> 00:19:06 seeing a and I apologize if you hear a noise in the background like this
212 00:19:06 --> 00:19:11 vibration, my neighbor is having trees cut down, so I had to deal with that
213 00:19:11 --> 00:19:14 yesterday. So in a way, I was kind of glad I couldn't actually live stream.
214 00:19:15 --> 00:19:18 But today, if you hear it, just know that it's something I can't avoid.
215 00:19:18 --> 00:19:22 There's a lot of big trucks out there cutting down rather large trees. So the
216 00:19:23 --> 00:19:28 Friday, large range day, we solved the issue of direction because of my
217 00:19:28 --> 00:19:32 prompting on Thursday, telling you to look at wherever everything is left in
218 00:19:32 --> 00:19:36 your charts, where they're smooth, relative equal highs. And I'll cycle
219 00:19:36 --> 00:19:39 through in a lower time frames and show you a couple setups that happen pre
220 00:19:39 --> 00:19:45 market and overnight and in Asia last night, using that same idea, but for
221 00:19:45 --> 00:19:50 Friday, because we're expecting the large range day expansion to occur, the
222 00:19:50 --> 00:19:54 direction is solved by looking where is the market leaving smooth highs or
223 00:19:54 --> 00:19:59 smooth lows? Well, we had Wednesdays drop down that shift in sentiment. I.
224 00:20:00 --> 00:20:03 Means retail is looking for lower prices go back to and revert back to higher.
225 00:20:03 --> 00:20:07 Time Frame macro perspective, which is, it's an election year, so they're going
226 00:20:07 --> 00:20:10 to keep trying to push this monkey higher on the tree. And then what
227 00:20:10 --> 00:20:13 happens after November 5? You know, who knows? You know, does it? Does it stay
228 00:20:13 --> 00:20:17 higher on another limb, or is it falling a coconut? And then we'll see what we
229 00:20:17 --> 00:20:26 get. But here, the idea is that the large range day, which will usually
230 00:20:26 --> 00:20:33 occur after the small Inside Day, when there's a small Inside Day, it's either
231 00:20:33 --> 00:20:37 the very next day, or, worst case scenario, the second day after. Well,
232 00:20:37 --> 00:20:40 you can't do that here on Friday, because we don't trade on Saturday. So
233 00:20:41 --> 00:20:45 what are they going to do? They're going to rush. They're going to rush right at
234 00:20:45 --> 00:20:49 the opening bell. And you see that happening here. The open is the low of
235 00:20:49 --> 00:20:53 the date thus far. So what are they doing? They're rushing to get the market
236 00:20:53 --> 00:20:57 up here. Who is they the algorithm? It's just simply running really, really quick
237 00:20:57 --> 00:21:01 to get to that level here, because it doesn't want to offer the opportunity
238 00:21:01 --> 00:21:05 for any individuals to have their stops up there that have been holding short,
239 00:21:05 --> 00:21:09 looking for Wednesday's continuation on Thursday, but didn't happen. And then
240 00:21:09 --> 00:21:15 Friday, here it is. They run real quick for them, that sudden one directional
241 00:21:15 --> 00:21:23 run is going after that liquidity, so they can't pull their orders, the
242 00:21:23 --> 00:21:28 direction is going to be bullish. As I indicated on Thursday's tweets, I told
243 00:21:28 --> 00:21:33 you to focus where the market's smooth. And one of the things I learned from
244 00:21:33 --> 00:21:42 Larry Williams is on large Range Days. On large Range Days, if it's bullish,
245 00:21:42 --> 00:21:50 the open is going to be very, very low on the daily range, okay? And I know
246 00:21:50 --> 00:21:54 that it's going to be in the lower quarter of whatever the daily range
247 00:21:54 --> 00:21:59 would be. So let's, let's do some math on that. A little bit rough math. If we
248 00:21:59 --> 00:22:04 know we're opening it at 930 and we're going to view this. It's not technically
249 00:22:04 --> 00:22:09 the daily open, but I look at sessions the same way I would look at a daily
250 00:22:09 --> 00:22:13 candlestick. For me, the morning session, the high and the low, where we
251 00:22:13 --> 00:22:17 start and where we stop. I look at it in this perspective. This is power three,
252 00:22:18 --> 00:22:23 so I'm looking for the opening when I'm bullish and I want to see manipulation.
253 00:22:24 --> 00:22:27 That's the drop down, because if I'm bullish, I want to see some opposing
254 00:22:27 --> 00:22:31 direction. That's the Judah swing. That's manipulation. And then the
255 00:22:31 --> 00:22:35 accumulation below the opening price, or just above it, when it comes back down
256 00:22:35 --> 00:22:40 and touch it again, it does not need to come back and touch it, but if it does,
257 00:22:40 --> 00:22:43 that's all part of the accumulation phase. And then you have the profit
258 00:22:43 --> 00:22:47 Release, release portion of the run. Then you go to the target, which would
259 00:22:47 --> 00:22:54 be the liquidity or some higher Time Frame, PD array. That's these two levels
260 00:22:54 --> 00:22:59 here. So the market trades up into them. And again, these levels. This is not the
261 00:22:59 --> 00:23:03 scale, but it's just the idea of Thursday with a small range Inside Day,
262 00:23:03 --> 00:23:07 and then Friday bullish, the open is going to be near the low of the day.
263 00:23:09 --> 00:23:12 It's actually the low of the day here, if we're looking at the morning session,
264 00:23:12 --> 00:23:15 but if you look at it through the lens of overnight and at midnight,
265 00:23:22 --> 00:23:25 there's midnight. It creates the opening. Here.
266 00:23:28 --> 00:23:29 We got like this.
267 00:23:37 --> 00:23:42 There's your opening price. Here's the low of the day, right there. So this
268 00:23:42 --> 00:23:47 line right here, think about this crude depiction of a hypothetical daily
269 00:23:47 --> 00:23:53 candlestick, open, high level, closed bar that opening price is this, this
270 00:23:53 --> 00:23:59 drop down is this little tail that's making the low of the day. And then the
271 00:23:59 --> 00:24:04 market trades higher, it can. It doesn't always, but it can come back and use
272 00:24:04 --> 00:24:08 that same opening price. What is it doing there? Trading right to that
273 00:24:08 --> 00:24:12 opening price, hits it, then it consolidates. What's it doing? It's
274 00:24:12 --> 00:24:17 accumulating. It's accumulating all around that opening price. It creates
275 00:24:17 --> 00:24:20 the first drop down. That's where smart money is going to buy. I spent my first
276 00:24:20 --> 00:24:25 few years trying to decipher this mystery, because that was the weakness
277 00:24:25 --> 00:24:30 that Larry Williams admitted at the time, when I was studying everything he
278 00:24:30 --> 00:24:33 ever had. He said that he wished he knew the zip code of all the traders that
279 00:24:33 --> 00:24:37 would knew how to buy below the opening price. Okay, that was like a facetious
280 00:24:37 --> 00:24:41 statement that, you know, he admitted his weakness so he would always do what
281 00:24:41 --> 00:24:47 he would be buying some portion of the previous range, or an average of of
282 00:24:48 --> 00:24:52 average daily range, and take 20% of that range and add it to the opening
283 00:24:52 --> 00:24:57 price, and then he'd be buying up here that I tried that, and it hurt me. I
284 00:24:57 --> 00:25:01 every time I tried to use that kind of stuff, I. Lost money. I'm not saying
285 00:25:01 --> 00:25:05 that he has stuff that doesn't work or he didn't make money with it. I'm just
286 00:25:05 --> 00:25:09 saying that because I was not able to be consistently following every time of
287 00:25:09 --> 00:25:15 doing it. I will admit to you that that losses were heavy and when they hurt, I
288 00:25:15 --> 00:25:18 would be afraid to take the next trade. So I'm not going to shit on him and say
289 00:25:18 --> 00:25:23 his stuff didn't work. I just wasn't able to weather the drawdown that it
290 00:25:23 --> 00:25:27 brought with it. So because he said he couldn't figure out how to be buying
291 00:25:27 --> 00:25:30 below the opening price, I went back to simply saying, Okay, well, you have a
292 00:25:30 --> 00:25:34 lot of the points already figured out. Toby Crabill, he brought up some things,
293 00:25:34 --> 00:25:38 the narrowing of the range and the narrowest range in last seven days, when
294 00:25:38 --> 00:25:42 it creates that he was a breakout artist, he would buy on a breakout above
295 00:25:42 --> 00:25:45 or sell on a breakout below. I was never interested in doing that, because that's
296 00:25:45 --> 00:25:50 synonymous with Larry Williams was doing then, when I first started 1992 so
297 00:25:50 --> 00:25:56 because it hurt me buying with a portion of the last five days average daily
298 00:25:56 --> 00:25:59 range, and then taking 20% of the average daily range if I'm bullish, or
299 00:25:59 --> 00:26:02 if Larry Williams was bullish, he would add that to that opening price there.
300 00:26:02 --> 00:26:06 Well, he would actually do it here on that opening price. But because I was
301 00:26:06 --> 00:26:10 looking at the daily range, and I was trying to figure out how I could
302 00:26:10 --> 00:26:14 facilitate a model that would be buying blue the opening price in days that
303 00:26:14 --> 00:26:18 would create this type of scenario, I just went back to time, when does the
304 00:26:18 --> 00:26:24 day start? Midnight. So at midnight, I'm going to look for something that drops
305 00:26:24 --> 00:26:29 down. I don't want to chase that because I don't want to be a short seller. I
306 00:26:29 --> 00:26:32 didn't trust short selling. I didn't know how to do it when I first started.
307 00:26:32 --> 00:26:36 So I just let it drop down. And then when it gave me a bullish divergence on
308 00:26:36 --> 00:26:40 the Stochastics, and then I had a histogram on the MACD that was my
309 00:26:40 --> 00:26:44 filter. Sometimes they didn't agree. Sometimes I missed moves, and then I'd
310 00:26:44 --> 00:26:49 have to chase price. Back in the 1990s I was, I was afraid I'd missed that,
311 00:26:49 --> 00:26:51 because I would think, just like most of you would, you would think, Oh, I'm
312 00:26:51 --> 00:26:55 missing the only up close day with a big range when they're going to repeat in
313 00:26:55 --> 00:26:59 the future. But because I was first now fleshing out these ideas into models
314 00:26:59 --> 00:27:04 that I would use and apply with real money, the the fear factor was too large
315 00:27:04 --> 00:27:10 for me to to do a lot of things that I'm comfortable now. But the point is, is,
316 00:27:10 --> 00:27:16 when we have a large range they expected. Larry brought a really amazing
317 00:27:17 --> 00:27:21 observation that I didn't notice, and I was looking at charts a lot before him,
318 00:27:21 --> 00:27:27 you know, not before him, but before getting into his material. I never
319 00:27:27 --> 00:27:31 noticed that the opening would be near the low of bullish days. It was just
320 00:27:31 --> 00:27:34 completely I didn't know about it. I didn't pay attention to it. They never
321 00:27:34 --> 00:27:38 drew my attention to it. No one ever called any special attention to it. But
322 00:27:38 --> 00:27:44 because his material talked about that, I was like, wow, as a day trader, like,
323 00:27:44 --> 00:27:48 that's a that's a superpower, like, that's literally, like, one of the
324 00:27:48 --> 00:27:53 wonderful advantages if you're a short term trader or a day trader, you want to
325 00:27:53 --> 00:27:58 try to focus in on days when it's likely to start a price run like this, where
326 00:27:58 --> 00:28:02 everything is in your favor, that it's going to go one direction, find the
327 00:28:02 --> 00:28:05 opening price at midnight, and then anything below that price as it drops
328 00:28:05 --> 00:28:11 down, if it agrees with other factors that would constitute a trade, then it
329 00:28:11 --> 00:28:14 goes without saying that you have a high probability that you're going to be
330 00:28:14 --> 00:28:19 entering below the opening price, where and when smart money would accumulate
331 00:28:19 --> 00:28:24 their long positions and just know if we have economic counter like we had this
332 00:28:24 --> 00:28:30 morning, we had 832 news drivers, and I don't recall off the top of my head what
333 00:28:30 --> 00:28:33 they were. Give me a second. I don't want to tell you something that wasn't
334 00:28:33 --> 00:28:38 accurate. 830 we had Core Durable goods orders, and again, that's a medium
335 00:28:38 --> 00:28:42 impact news driver. You can find this information on forex factory, coms
336 00:28:42 --> 00:28:48 calendar or econo day, econo day, and they're both free resources. But then we
337 00:28:48 --> 00:28:53 had another new driver at 10 o'clock. So we had a split notice that we had 830
338 00:28:53 --> 00:28:58 news, and then we had 10 o'clock news. So you gotta be real careful on days
339 00:28:58 --> 00:29:02 that have that split news delivery, because sometimes it can create, like a
340 00:29:02 --> 00:29:06 catapult type move where, or whiplash where, it sends the market one
341 00:29:06 --> 00:29:11 direction, not the data, but the algorithm will use that data and trip
342 00:29:11 --> 00:29:15 traders up. And they'll use the first set of data at 830 kind of like a FOMC,
343 00:29:15 --> 00:29:19 where the first run is the fake run, and then at 230 during the conference at
344 00:29:19 --> 00:29:24 FOMC, the real run takes place, and it's much larger in the opposite direction.
345 00:29:24 --> 00:29:28 Well, sometimes when you have split delivery on the economic calendar, 839,
346 00:29:28 --> 00:29:32 10 o'clock news like that, it can create those scenarios, but you can filter that
347 00:29:32 --> 00:29:38 out on Days and circumstances like today, where we had the bias was
348 00:29:38 --> 00:29:41 bullish. I shared that with you yesterday on Twitter, I said, keep your
349 00:29:41 --> 00:29:46 eyes on focused on the smooth highs. That's your bias. That's me. Point look
350 00:29:46 --> 00:29:49 up. In other words, don't look go short. Look up. And
351 00:29:55 --> 00:30:00 when we're looking for the last trading day of the week, you. To go for that
352 00:30:00 --> 00:30:05 target, or these targets that we had outlined here, that means that they're
353 00:30:05 --> 00:30:09 going to use the opening bell. And even though there might be a large gap here,
354 00:30:09 --> 00:30:13 even though that there's a 70% likelihood that it trades the mid gap,
355 00:30:14 --> 00:30:17 these are the circumstances, and these are the types of days where it's going
356 00:30:17 --> 00:30:24 to say, Not today, not today. So it's in a hurry. It's a rush to get up here and
357 00:30:24 --> 00:30:30 get to that information. There information, but that liquidity. So what
358 00:30:30 --> 00:30:37 I'm suggesting to you is this, if you were aware of these types of things, and
359 00:30:37 --> 00:30:41 I covered a lot of this stuff in mentorship, I taught about it, and, you
360 00:30:41 --> 00:30:45 know, topical studies before I started doing paid mentorships, in 2016 I will
361 00:30:45 --> 00:30:49 never, ever, ever, ever do another paid mentorship. So for the people that are
362 00:30:49 --> 00:30:52 pretending to be me on other social medias, I'm not trying to get you to buy
363 00:30:52 --> 00:30:57 into a new mentorship. I'm never doing it again. I'm officially retired. I'm
364 00:30:57 --> 00:31:00 never doing it. I don't need your money. I'm doing this for free. I don't care.
365 00:31:00 --> 00:31:03 Okay? I don't want to do it anymore. It's too much work. It's a job. I don't
366 00:31:03 --> 00:31:08 want that so, but you can find all my lecture notes and stuff for my
367 00:31:08 --> 00:31:11 mentorship, and it's the stuff that you'd be paying for if I was doing a
368 00:31:11 --> 00:31:14 mentorship. So why would you want to? Why would you want to pay me for
369 00:31:14 --> 00:31:18 something I've already shared publicly? I guess people just want to be part of
370 00:31:18 --> 00:31:23 the crew right now. I'm I'm trained by FISU like that means anything. I'm just
371 00:31:23 --> 00:31:35 a guy, so take the crude depiction off here. And if we knew that the 1030 to
372 00:31:35 --> 00:31:43 1130 hour that usually creates the to animate term high or low of the morning
373 00:31:43 --> 00:31:50 session, and then it invites the lunch macro to define where the order flow is
374 00:31:50 --> 00:31:55 going to be during that two hour period between 11 o'clock and one o'clock, or
375 00:31:55 --> 00:32:02 specifically 1130 to 130 Okay, so lunch for New York is between 11:30am Eastern
376 00:32:02 --> 00:32:10 Time to 1:30pm Eastern Time. The way that would unfold here is, let's just
377 00:32:10 --> 00:32:13 say, play devil's advocate for a moment. I'm going to be with you till 1045
378 00:32:14 --> 00:32:18 right? So that way we know what's going on. But at 1030 say it is 1030 right?
379 00:32:18 --> 00:32:22 Now it's not. We have 11 minutes or so to go. What would happen is it would
380 00:32:22 --> 00:32:30 start computing, computing, computing. I was gonna say computing. I will say that
381 00:32:30 --> 00:32:36 the algorithm will computate the range high and the range low, and then it'll
382 00:32:36 --> 00:32:40 define where midpoint is, or equilibrium, and then below that
383 00:32:40 --> 00:32:47 equilibrium price point at 1030 then it'll start looking for sell side, and
384 00:32:47 --> 00:32:52 the lunch macro is always going to run on those that are profitable. That's
385 00:32:52 --> 00:32:58 what it does. Okay? That's exactly what it does. So sometimes it'll go down and
386 00:32:58 --> 00:33:02 just take the first pool of liquidity, and then it'll consolidate and the rest
387 00:33:02 --> 00:33:06 of the day and go no lower and make no new high. Other instances where it'll
388 00:33:06 --> 00:33:12 trade down, trade into the trail, stop losses, and then once it triggers that
389 00:33:12 --> 00:33:16 sell side, then it'll accumulate and start running higher and keep going in
390 00:33:16 --> 00:33:19 the rest of the day until the last portion of the day, and close the week
391 00:33:19 --> 00:33:26 out strong on the tie. I I believe that that is likely to occur today, meaning
392 00:33:26 --> 00:33:31 that if we stop, say you were a session trader, there's nothing wrong with you
393 00:33:31 --> 00:33:34 being done for the day. If you were already long and you've you've traded up
394 00:33:34 --> 00:33:38 to here, or if you took profits early and you weren't able to see this, or
395 00:33:38 --> 00:33:43 weren't aware of it, if you are in a flat position right now, you're not in
396 00:33:43 --> 00:33:47 the trades anymore. You're flat or you haven't taken a trade. This is a
397 00:33:47 --> 00:33:50 wonderful instance where you can sit still and say, You know what, I'm
398 00:33:50 --> 00:33:54 content for this week. I'm done. Now. Everybody else out there with courses to
399 00:33:54 --> 00:33:57 sell and signal services, they're going to say, Oh, well, I think he said, Look,
400 00:33:57 --> 00:34:00 he said he's done trading, but he'll they're going to show you 20 other
401 00:34:00 --> 00:34:04 trades the rest of the day. Filter out the times they didn't work, where they
402 00:34:04 --> 00:34:07 didn't make money, and they're going to show you the combines or the funded
403 00:34:07 --> 00:34:12 accounts that made them money that day. Okay, I'm being transparent. I'm being
404 00:34:12 --> 00:34:14 honest. I'm telling you. Okay, you didn't know that I took two losing
405 00:34:14 --> 00:34:18 trades yesterday. Unless you were a part of my group, you never would have known
406 00:34:18 --> 00:34:22 that, but because I said, if I had them, I will tell you about them. They weren't
407 00:34:22 --> 00:34:26 recorded, but they were outlined audibly, just like I'm talking right
408 00:34:26 --> 00:34:30 now. I didn't put any kind of charts up and point to anything. I just said,
409 00:34:30 --> 00:34:35 Okay, watch this one minute. Candlestick at 1054, watch this fair value cap. I
410 00:34:35 --> 00:34:39 want to see this become an inversion fair value cap. And the first time I
411 00:34:39 --> 00:34:43 used it, it slipped through it. And I said, Okay, well, I got burned on that
412 00:34:43 --> 00:34:49 one. So because I'm staying with the idea that I shared with you all on
413 00:34:49 --> 00:34:53 Thursday, that start looking for smooth highs, that means my bias is bullish.
414 00:34:53 --> 00:34:59 It's been bullish. So I'm not going to abandon that narrative. I'm going to
415 00:34:59 --> 00:35:04 I'm. To sit still and wait when the market starts to shift in my favor.
416 00:35:04 --> 00:35:09 Again, wonderful. I'm going to use those same PD arrays. They're not stale. Okay?
417 00:35:09 --> 00:35:12 I don't trade supply and demand. Okay? We don't always look at the the first
418 00:35:13 --> 00:35:18 run into a zone. I don't trade zones. It's bullshit. I'm looking for PD arrays
419 00:35:18 --> 00:35:21 that the algorithm is going to go right back to and you watched me execute on
420 00:35:21 --> 00:35:24 those things yesterday. You know, I used to five second charges to twist a knife
421 00:35:24 --> 00:35:27 on some guy that works on a campus as a police officer. Well, potentially the
422 00:35:27 --> 00:35:33 police officer would say it that way. So buying near the low when it's bullish
423 00:35:33 --> 00:35:42 and it's a large range day, okay, it affords you a lot of comfort patience.
424 00:35:42 --> 00:35:45 Now, it doesn't mean you're going to have patience in the beginning, because
425 00:35:46 --> 00:35:50 it's going to be easy for you to want, like if you were to long. Let's go into
426 00:35:50 --> 00:35:55 regular trading or electronic trading hours. Let's go back into that midnight
427 00:35:56 --> 00:36:05 time. And here is midnight rate. The hell am I doing?
428 00:36:22 --> 00:36:29 Right there. So at that point, at midnight on Friday, we're looking at
429 00:36:29 --> 00:36:35 what the market consolidate. It's part of a larger consolidation. But it's
430 00:36:35 --> 00:36:40 during a period of time when the markets likely to do what, rally higher, move
431 00:36:40 --> 00:36:45 higher, trade higher. So if we're looking for that range expansion, that
432 00:36:45 --> 00:36:49 big, explosive price room run that that's occurring because Thursday was an
433 00:36:49 --> 00:36:56 Inside Day, our bias is determined bullish. We're expecting two new drivers
434 00:36:56 --> 00:37:01 at 830 and at 10 o'clock. So we have split delivery on the calendar. So
435 00:37:01 --> 00:37:06 normally, that would create a back and forth. And then after the final 10
436 00:37:06 --> 00:37:10 O'Clock News is released, then the real price runs for daily candlestick range
437 00:37:10 --> 00:37:15 is delivered, not today, because it's the last trading day of the week, we
438 00:37:15 --> 00:37:21 have unfinished business up here to draw on That liquidity. So by looking at that
439 00:37:24 --> 00:37:25 at midnight and
440 00:37:40 --> 00:37:48 the opening price drop down. It trades back above. It trades back down into the
441 00:37:48 --> 00:37:55 opening price. Here, rallies, accumulates, accumulates. 3am what time
442 00:37:55 --> 00:38:01 is 3am that's the heart of London session. So we would what expect the
443 00:38:01 --> 00:38:05 market to what create some kind of displacement? Does it rally higher? Yes.
444 00:38:05 --> 00:38:09 Does it go above a short term high? Yes. The market drops back down. What is it
445 00:38:09 --> 00:38:17 trading back down into an order block? Does it take the low out? No. Does it
446 00:38:17 --> 00:38:24 rally again? Yes, volume and balance inefficiency. Inversion, fair value gap,
447 00:38:24 --> 00:38:27 all of that's being clustered all in that same area, right there,
448 00:38:27 --> 00:38:34 consolidation, consolidation, and then finally, at 330 rips, trades higher,
449 00:38:35 --> 00:38:40 takes higher, runs higher two, four o'clock in the morning, trades all the
450 00:38:40 --> 00:38:47 way back down into the middle of the consolidation in here. What's the bias?
451 00:38:47 --> 00:38:51 What are we looking for? Higher prices so anytime the market trades back down
452 00:38:51 --> 00:38:59 into a discount, PD array, mid range or equilibrium, like we see here years and
453 00:38:59 --> 00:39:00 years ago,
454 00:39:00 --> 00:39:02 in 2012 2013 2014
455 00:39:04 --> 00:39:08 I was doing just top topical studies, where I would talk about things that
456 00:39:08 --> 00:39:14 were just very germane to one principle, one little thing. And they were like my
457 00:39:14 --> 00:39:18 little breadcrumbs to see if I can accumulate some kind of interest. And
458 00:39:18 --> 00:39:22 people wanted to learn what it is I was trying to share. And they were very
459 00:39:22 --> 00:39:26 popular back then, and I don't have them on my channel anymore, and I'm I've
460 00:39:26 --> 00:39:29 already taken down a couple other YouTube channels to have put them up,
461 00:39:29 --> 00:39:32 because they're trying to monetize my stuff. You don't have my permission, and
462 00:39:32 --> 00:39:34 that three other channels are about to come down the night too, because they're
463 00:39:34 --> 00:39:38 taking my mentorship videos that I'm doing here and my live streams, and
464 00:39:38 --> 00:39:41 they're putting them in their local language. I do not give you permission
465 00:39:41 --> 00:39:44 to do that, so you're going to get a wave of copyright strikes, and you're
466 00:39:44 --> 00:39:47 done, and I don't take them back. So don't ask me in an email, and you can
467 00:39:47 --> 00:39:52 send me all the math. You can see what ain't going to change it. But all those
468 00:39:52 --> 00:39:55 things that I did, topical studies, they're all wrapped up in the things, in
469 00:39:55 --> 00:40:00 the lectures. It's all built in anyway. So if you're. Really trying to learn and
470 00:40:00 --> 00:40:03 study. You're going to see all that stuff, but if you're looking at how
471 00:40:03 --> 00:40:11 price delivers continuously higher, and then at seven o'clock in the morning, we
472 00:40:11 --> 00:40:17 have the am session starting. So what do we have here? Smooth highlights. So
473 00:40:18 --> 00:40:23 what's resting above that buy side? Market rallies up, trades up to and
474 00:40:23 --> 00:40:27 through the buy side, and then comes back down into this inefficiency here,
475 00:40:29 --> 00:40:35 if it's two inefficiencies, think about what I taught for model 2022. This is
476 00:40:35 --> 00:40:39 the one you wouldn't try to trade in, but your stop has to respect the Second
477 00:40:39 --> 00:40:45 fair value got. So you can see it drops down into it here, but then so goes
478 00:40:45 --> 00:40:57 higher volume imbalance, plus my final balance cell phone efficiency. That's a
479 00:40:57 --> 00:41:03 nice PDA, Reg conformation, confluci. I'm making my own words up here today,
480 00:41:05 --> 00:41:10 Confluence in agreement to two PD arrays and a discount trades down to here,
481 00:41:11 --> 00:41:21 rallies, one tomorrow. And then this is 15 second I was defining the range there
482 00:41:21 --> 00:41:24 which I have To go out
483 00:41:26 --> 00:41:30 to do that here, 15 second I'm
484 00:41:44 --> 00:41:48 all right, let's just say that you wanted to be a part of this move, okay?
485 00:41:48 --> 00:41:55 And you wanted to be a part of it over the daily range. But you know, as I'm
486 00:41:55 --> 00:41:59 teaching this lecture, because of the circumstances and the things that are
487 00:42:01 --> 00:42:04 germane to today being Friday, last trading day of the week. Unfinished
488 00:42:04 --> 00:42:10 business. That big pool of liquidity above on the 15 minute time frame these
489 00:42:10 --> 00:42:11 price levels
490 00:42:12 --> 00:42:16 up here, all the way up here,
491 00:42:18 --> 00:42:23 because that is the likely draw my private students. I know this sounds
492 00:42:23 --> 00:42:28 terrible to say it, but I'm giving them a nod in the lecture, in the live
493 00:42:28 --> 00:42:32 stream, because they know that we were looking at these levels. We weren't
494 00:42:32 --> 00:42:35 looking at them just yesterday for a target for yesterday, but we've been
495 00:42:35 --> 00:42:40 looking at so if I delivered this morning, but because we know that the
496 00:42:40 --> 00:42:43 likelihood of a large range day is going to form today on Friday, because we had
497 00:42:43 --> 00:42:47 a small inside day on Thursday, meaning that the range on Thursday's daily high
498 00:42:47 --> 00:42:52 and low was smaller. The high was lower than Wednesday's high, and the low of
499 00:42:52 --> 00:42:57 Thursday was higher than Wednesday's low. So that means it's inside of the
500 00:42:57 --> 00:43:01 previous day's range. Whenever that occurs, you have the indication that
501 00:43:01 --> 00:43:04 there's going to be a large range, explosive large range, one directional
502 00:43:04 --> 00:43:10 move. When it happens, it's going to most likely deliver in the basis of a
503 00:43:10 --> 00:43:15 low resistance liquidity run condition. That means it's not going to be a lot of
504 00:43:15 --> 00:43:19 fuzzy price action, not going to be like it was yesterday on Thursday. Think
505 00:43:19 --> 00:43:25 about what Thursday really did it create a small Inside Day relative to
506 00:43:25 --> 00:43:29 Wednesday's daily high and low, and because it's creating that small range
507 00:43:29 --> 00:43:34 day, it's not surprising to see how it was very back and forth. Even though it
508 00:43:34 --> 00:43:39 was tradable, and I got beat up on the first two trades, I tried the next two.
509 00:43:40 --> 00:43:44 Fixed it because I stayed with my narrative. I didn't throw it out, you
510 00:43:44 --> 00:43:47 know, throw the baby out with the bathwater. I didn't abandon my model
511 00:43:47 --> 00:43:52 because I had two losing trades in front of my students. I didn't lose my edge.
512 00:43:52 --> 00:43:57 They didn't change the algorithm. All these things that you're you're worrying
513 00:43:57 --> 00:44:01 about, I know that I have models and a perception of a price that's going to
514 00:44:01 --> 00:44:06 stick to me forever as a trader. I'm never going to abandon them. I'm never
515 00:44:06 --> 00:44:12 going to look at market any other way. But I'm also a realist, because I know
516 00:44:12 --> 00:44:16 I'll mess it up, and I did. I messed it up yesterday. My models don't fail. I
517 00:44:16 --> 00:44:21 fail using them because I try to do things when I would even tell you not to
518 00:44:21 --> 00:44:26 do don't try to trade the morning session, because why the approach to
519 00:44:26 --> 00:44:32 trying to force precision in days like when we have a large range day on
520 00:44:32 --> 00:44:36 Wednesday, where it's big down day the following morning session, you want to
521 00:44:36 --> 00:44:39 avoid that, because it's going to evade you when it comes to precision. But
522 00:44:39 --> 00:44:43 because I'm ICT, and I like to do things as to prove a point. Well, I prove the
523 00:44:43 --> 00:44:47 point that I'm human too. And I lost two times yesterday back to back, just like
524 00:44:47 --> 00:44:55 that, and then I went and got it all back with more. So I'm not advocating
525 00:44:55 --> 00:45:00 that you do that. That's the part of me that makes me not a good mentor. Because
526 00:45:01 --> 00:45:04 I'm willing to break my own rules because I'm good enough to come back
527 00:45:04 --> 00:45:08 from it. And when you're first starting to do this, you're going to want to do
528 00:45:08 --> 00:45:12 those things, because you hear me say that, or if you watch me, or if my
529 00:45:12 --> 00:45:15 students see that, they say, Oh, wow, yeah, you had two losing trades. It was
530 00:45:15 --> 00:45:18 a little cringy because you're like, you're supposed to be ICT. And you just
531 00:45:18 --> 00:45:22 had two back to back losing positions, you know, right here, and what would the
532 00:45:22 --> 00:45:25 internet think if it got out? And I'm sure they all were running out there in
533 00:45:25 --> 00:45:28 their little circle jerks, like I was joking with my crew yesterday, and I
534 00:45:28 --> 00:45:30 told him, I said they they ran out there
535 00:45:30 --> 00:45:33 real quick. Watch this. ICT lost two trades, but you'll never hear him talk
536 00:45:33 --> 00:45:35 about it. He wants everybody believe he's so good.
537 00:45:35 --> 00:45:38 He's perfect. But I can, I told you, I told you, if I have a losing trade,
538 00:45:38 --> 00:45:41 you're going to see it. I'll tell you about it. I'm not afraid to talk about
539 00:45:41 --> 00:45:45 it. In fact, it's helpful. It communicates the very thing that I teach
540 00:45:45 --> 00:45:48 you not to do. Don't trade in the morning session after a large range day.
541 00:45:49 --> 00:45:53 It's simple, isn't it? It's simple, but because they're my concepts, because I
542 00:45:53 --> 00:45:56 codified them, and because I'm a little bit better than the average bear, I will
543 00:45:57 --> 00:46:02 I'll chance going out there and doing it, and when I'm doing it like that, and
544 00:46:02 --> 00:46:08 it's profitable when I'm able to say, look, see, I was able to do this. I'm
545 00:46:08 --> 00:46:12 not flexing and saying, Look at this. Look at me. Look, I can do that without
546 00:46:12 --> 00:46:18 doing that. But it's me saying, Don't count this as something as a skill set
547 00:46:18 --> 00:46:22 for you to acquire, because it's simply me doing something where it just
548 00:46:22 --> 00:46:27 happened to work in my hands at that time. It's better for me to try to do
549 00:46:27 --> 00:46:33 these things in the evidence division of See this is why I teach the way I teach.
550 00:46:33 --> 00:46:39 And I know this, it pisses people off when I say stuff like that, but if I
551 00:46:39 --> 00:46:44 only come out here and teach on days that are just real, real easy to trade,
552 00:46:44 --> 00:46:49 and it's all one sided. Wouldn't that? Wouldn't that kind of communicate to you
553 00:46:49 --> 00:46:55 that you're going to always know the days it does that contrast that with I
554 00:46:55 --> 00:47:01 teach a lot around days and periods and conditions that are not going to be
555 00:47:01 --> 00:47:05 conducive for a very, very precise delivery and price. Have you noticed
556 00:47:05 --> 00:47:10 that? Have you noticed that in this, in this 2024 mentorship, because that's the
557 00:47:10 --> 00:47:16 part I told you in my 2016 and 2017 paid mentorship, that every time that someone
558 00:47:16 --> 00:47:20 joined my paid mentorship, they got those same lessons that are already on
559 00:47:20 --> 00:47:24 my YouTube channel for free, and they had to go through all that core content
560 00:47:24 --> 00:47:28 to understand what I just told you, so that way they don't have to go through
561 00:47:28 --> 00:47:36 it, but because they didn't want to be taught in hard conditions. You if you're
562 00:47:36 --> 00:47:39 not really ready to learn, you're going to come to me and say, okay, teach me
563 00:47:39 --> 00:47:43 how I need to learn, because I know how I should be taught. Well, if you know
564 00:47:43 --> 00:47:46 how you should be taught, then you know everything, and you're not, you're the
565 00:47:46 --> 00:47:50 teacher, then I'm not going to I'm not going to waste my time with people like
566 00:47:50 --> 00:47:55 that. So I always build in a method in my lectures where, if you're that way,
567 00:47:55 --> 00:47:58 you're going to get bored with me or frustrated and you're going to stop
568 00:47:58 --> 00:48:01 watching me. And that's exactly what I want you to do, because I don't have
569 00:48:01 --> 00:48:05 time for you. You're not ready to learn. But for someone that's willing to
570 00:48:05 --> 00:48:09 subscribe to the ideas that it's going to take a lot more time. You think it's
571 00:48:09 --> 00:48:13 going to require patience, and you want to learn how you're going to ruin
572 00:48:13 --> 00:48:18 yourself. You have to identify where those quicksand periods are, where that
573 00:48:19 --> 00:48:23 that oil slick in the road is so that big pothole down the road that is going
574 00:48:23 --> 00:48:27 to destroy the front end of your car. Okay, you don't take your high end
575 00:48:27 --> 00:48:30 sports car and drive over top of potholes. You try to avoid everything
576 00:48:30 --> 00:48:35 that it's going to cause damage. So as a as a mentor with 30 years plus
577 00:48:35 --> 00:48:40 experience doing this, I know where these troublesome areas are going to be
578 00:48:40 --> 00:48:43 in the marketplace, because I needed to know that I blew a lot of counts when I
579 00:48:43 --> 00:48:49 was 20. I roasted myself continuously back then because I was a cowboy and I
580 00:48:49 --> 00:48:54 knew I had a purpose in doing it. I was literally funding research and
581 00:48:54 --> 00:48:58 development in my own hands, and I was learning a lot of things, but I didn't
582 00:48:58 --> 00:49:03 understand or appreciate the measure of scar tissue that it was creating in me.
583 00:49:04 --> 00:49:08 So when I teach and I I lecture, I teach you these things, and I tell you, don't
584 00:49:08 --> 00:49:12 do these things. So that way you listen to me, because it's not you that I'm
585 00:49:12 --> 00:49:17 talking to, remember that it just feels like we have this, this connection
586 00:49:17 --> 00:49:21 together because I'm talking and I'm picturing my kids in my mind, I'm seeing
587 00:49:21 --> 00:49:25 Caleb and Cody and Cameron and my youngest son and my daughter and any
588 00:49:25 --> 00:49:29 other children in the future that I may or may not ever meet. I'm talking to
589 00:49:29 --> 00:49:32 them in mind. So that's why sincerity is coming out of my mouth. I'm speaking
590 00:49:32 --> 00:49:36 from my heart. I want them to learn from my mistakes. I don't want you to repeat
591 00:49:36 --> 00:49:41 what it is I've done, because it's it's hard, it's hard to grow outside of that.
592 00:49:41 --> 00:49:46 That's what caused me to take six years to figure out everything, because I
593 00:49:46 --> 00:49:49 actually figured it out a little less than three and a half years. But I spent
594 00:49:49 --> 00:49:53 time working through stuff, trying to tinker with things, because I thought I
595 00:49:53 --> 00:49:58 could make it perfect, and I was never able to get perfect. So perfect is
596 00:49:58 --> 00:50:03 always going to elude you. It's always a passion of mine, but I know enough that
597 00:50:03 --> 00:50:09 I'm never going to hit perfect. So if you're looking for periods where you
598 00:50:09 --> 00:50:12 know understanding where you're going to hurt yourself, and if, if you have an
599 00:50:12 --> 00:50:17 educator in anything, maybe trading, it may be another skill set or hobby or
600 00:50:17 --> 00:50:28 sport, if they have a way of teaching you how you're going to hurt yourself,
601 00:50:28 --> 00:50:32 how you're going to find difficulties, and if you can observe that beforehand,
602 00:50:33 --> 00:50:36 isn't that an advantage? Now, contrast that with some of you that are brand
603 00:50:36 --> 00:50:39 new. Say, this is the first time you watch the video from your live stream,
604 00:50:39 --> 00:50:43 and you're like, get on with you. You're not teaching anything. I'm actually,
605 00:50:43 --> 00:50:47 literally teaching you exactly what you need to know. But you don't know that
606 00:50:47 --> 00:50:51 you need to know that. Yet, when you got there and you try to use my stuff or
607 00:50:51 --> 00:50:54 someone else's stuff, or you follow, follow somebody's signals, or whatever,
608 00:50:54 --> 00:50:57 and you start losing real money, all of a sudden, you're going to be like, I
609 00:50:57 --> 00:51:01 need someone who's going to help me fix myself, because I can't think straight.
610 00:51:01 --> 00:51:05 Everything I'm thinking about is toxic. I'm afraid to get into a trade. I'm
611 00:51:05 --> 00:51:10 afraid to take another losing trade if I if I follow this guy or follow this
612 00:51:10 --> 00:51:15 model, or if I follow this approach, or if I just trust my own intuition, I back
613 00:51:15 --> 00:51:19 test and back test best, and then all of a sudden, you clam up. You can't do it.
614 00:51:20 --> 00:51:25 It's because you don't know if that moment you're ready to push the button
615 00:51:25 --> 00:51:29 is going to be a moment of hardship where it's going to be much more
616 00:51:29 --> 00:51:34 difficult versus when it's real easy, when it's low resistance liquidity runs.
617 00:51:34 --> 00:51:40 I'm going to explain what that is. Okay, because yesterday, study intraday price
618 00:51:40 --> 00:51:47 action on Thursday, go through your 15 minute time frame, 54321, and if you
619 00:51:47 --> 00:51:51 have the ability to go down to the less than one minute candlesticks, do that,
620 00:51:52 --> 00:51:56 and you'll see a lot of back and forth, back and forth, the overlapping of the
621 00:51:56 --> 00:52:01 ranges. Once it creates a run, it comes right back over top of it. That is high
622 00:52:01 --> 00:52:05 resistance liquidity run conditions. That means that you're going to get
623 00:52:05 --> 00:52:09 chewed up, spat out. You're going to either blow your account, blow your
624 00:52:09 --> 00:52:15 combine, go into severe draw down or full tilt, and be afraid to do anything
625 00:52:15 --> 00:52:17 the rest of the day. And because that happened to you yesterday, you're going
626 00:52:17 --> 00:52:21 to be fearful taking the trades when it's like it is today, when it was low
627 00:52:21 --> 00:52:25 resistance, liquidity run, where you don't have a whole lot of give and take
628 00:52:25 --> 00:52:32 and back and forth, it's just find me a PD array. Get in it, go, gone, going in
629 00:52:32 --> 00:52:37 30 seconds. Okay, so what I defined in here, and I'll kind of walk you through
630 00:52:37 --> 00:52:44 this. This is pre market pre session. If you look at the high here, there, that
631 00:52:44 --> 00:52:54 high is this rotation and then start to move all the way back down into this
632 00:52:54 --> 00:53:00 area in here. So what I identified is the body of the first high here, and
633 00:53:00 --> 00:53:04 this was like a stop hunt, so I ignored that. So I'm looking at this reference
634 00:53:04 --> 00:53:10 point here as the low and it comes back down and hits it here. So pre market.
635 00:53:11 --> 00:53:18 Pre market. That means before 930 is opening bell, eight or 10 minutes after
636 00:53:18 --> 00:53:22 eight. Okay, you're in a macro. So what's going to do? It's going to spool
637 00:53:23 --> 00:53:29 trading all the way back down booking price, down to the low over here, if we
638 00:53:29 --> 00:53:36 can define that range. Okay, once we have that, we can calibrate that to
639 00:53:37 --> 00:53:41 whatever the high and the low is at the time, once it retraces back down to a
640 00:53:41 --> 00:53:45 discounted rate and starts to move higher, what is it doing right there? On
641 00:53:45 --> 00:53:51 that price run, it cleared this high. If you're really, really bullish, you can
642 00:53:51 --> 00:53:56 use this short term high here. That's a shift in market structure. But here,
643 00:53:56 --> 00:54:00 this really nails the deal and says, Okay, we've had two periods or two
644 00:54:00 --> 00:54:04 points of reference where the market traded above a short term high, and then
645 00:54:04 --> 00:54:09 it gravitates right back down into order, block, buy, something about sell,
646 00:54:09 --> 00:54:17 sign, efficiency, range, high, range low. With those two reference points,
647 00:54:17 --> 00:54:21 and we're bullish, and we're expecting a large range day, and we're expecting
648 00:54:21 --> 00:54:24 that this most likely not going to see if we have a large opening range gap.
649 00:54:24 --> 00:54:30 We're not going to see what, much if at all of a retracement into the opening
650 00:54:30 --> 00:54:34 range gap, because it's going to be Go, go, go. It's Friday. Doesn't have a lot
651 00:54:34 --> 00:54:39 of time. It's got to run aggressively for that buy side liquidity in the 600
652 00:54:41 --> 00:54:45 so because all those factors coming together like a perfect storm, it's
653 00:54:45 --> 00:54:53 beneficial for you to try to start looking for setups before 930 I get
654 00:54:53 --> 00:54:58 questions all the time, what made you want to trade before 930 you teach
655 00:54:58 --> 00:55:01 silver bullet. I thought you. Were supposed to be trading silver ball. I
656 00:55:01 --> 00:55:04 thought we have to wait till 10 o'clock. That's you. If you're going to use that
657 00:55:04 --> 00:55:05 model, you have to wait till then.
658 00:55:06 --> 00:55:10 But there's always silver bullets. Every hour there's a silver bullet we talked
659 00:55:10 --> 00:55:16 about, I taught this, but if I give you a model to start with, I'm not saying
660 00:55:16 --> 00:55:21 that that's all I'm going to do. I'm educating. I'm giving you a plethora of
661 00:55:21 --> 00:55:24 different ways to do this. There's more than one way to skin a cat, and there's
662 00:55:24 --> 00:55:29 lots of ways to use my concepts, and that's wonderful for you as a student,
663 00:55:29 --> 00:55:32 because that means that I don't have to press you into a mold, which is what the
664 00:55:32 --> 00:55:35 silver bullet is at 10 o'clock. That's me pushing my son, Cameron, into a mold.
665 00:55:36 --> 00:55:39 This is the time you have to trade. This is the only thing you're going to be
666 00:55:39 --> 00:55:42 able to do. You cannot do anything else but this this because it forces him to
667 00:55:42 --> 00:55:48 start somewhere. Because he's my son, I have authority over him as his dad, even
668 00:55:48 --> 00:55:53 though he's making his own decisions. He's outside my home now. But because he
669 00:55:53 --> 00:56:00 has that respect and that fathership role I have over him, I'm I'm tapping
670 00:56:00 --> 00:56:05 into that to kind of like, say, look, yeah, I'm your dad, but I'm also, in
671 00:56:05 --> 00:56:09 this capacity, I'm your teacher, I'm your mentor. So I'm going to reduce your
672 00:56:09 --> 00:56:13 focus to this, because that'll give you a baseline you have to start somewhere.
673 00:56:13 --> 00:56:18 You gotta get some kind of baseline experience. And it goes back to when
674 00:56:18 --> 00:56:23 people come to my YouTube channel, where do I start? Pick something you can't go
675 00:56:23 --> 00:56:28 wrong, but you have to have some kind of baseline Foundation. Because unless you
676 00:56:28 --> 00:56:33 start somewhere, and there is no perfect really, there is no perfect starting
677 00:56:33 --> 00:56:37 point. But now, because we've done this mentorship in 2024 because I'm doing it
678 00:56:37 --> 00:56:41 over live price action, and doing things, showing you what the market's
679 00:56:41 --> 00:56:44 going to do, pushing the button. Go back and listen to the lectures. You'll see
680 00:56:44 --> 00:56:52 me do it. The whole idea of looking for this repeating phenomenon is not enough.
681 00:56:52 --> 00:57:01 It's identifying where you're going to wreck yourself. That's why 99.999999% of
682 00:57:01 --> 00:57:05 educators out there, they don't touch this topic because they don't fucking
683 00:57:05 --> 00:57:10 know. They don't know every day is a trading day, until you get your ass
684 00:57:10 --> 00:57:15 handed to yourself and you don't talk about those days, you won't show your
685 00:57:15 --> 00:57:20 funded account stuff, then you'll just pretend it never happened. But when it's
686 00:57:21 --> 00:57:25 working your favor, then you'll broadcast that stuff. And that, to me,
687 00:57:25 --> 00:57:32 is little bit of a disingenuous motive, because I am a realist. I am a realist
688 00:57:32 --> 00:57:38 as I teach, I teach through a demo account paper trading, because I'm not
689 00:57:38 --> 00:57:43 licensed to give financial advice, but I am not a demo trader in the real world.
690 00:57:44 --> 00:57:49 I have to do things to comply legally in the United States, a lot of you Yahoos
691 00:57:49 --> 00:57:53 out there, whether you're doing it in the United States as an American or
692 00:57:53 --> 00:58:00 outside this this country, in the States, there are governing bodies that
693 00:58:00 --> 00:58:05 will absolutely grab you by the lapels and say, Come here, son, and make your
694 00:58:05 --> 00:58:09 life hard, make you pay fines that you probably can't afford, maybe even jail
695 00:58:09 --> 00:58:13 time, and disbar you from having any ability to trade in the marketplace.
696 00:58:13 --> 00:58:17 That can happen. There's consequences. So because I don't want that, I don't
697 00:58:17 --> 00:58:24 want that problem. Okay, I don't need that trouble. Okay? I do things, and
698 00:58:24 --> 00:58:27 even though you may not like it, it may, oh, you're supposed to be like, let me
699 00:58:27 --> 00:58:31 as much as I love teaching all of you, I don't love you all that much to risk
700 00:58:31 --> 00:58:35 that kind of stuff for my personal life. I have a lot to lose. So you can all
701 00:58:35 --> 00:58:40 laugh and say, Oh, it's demo ball. I called myself that I do that for my own
702 00:58:40 --> 00:58:45 legal protection. But it doesn't change the fact that the things I'm talking
703 00:58:45 --> 00:58:50 about over live price data, either it works or it doesn't period. If it
704 00:58:50 --> 00:58:55 doesn't work, then you know right away, there's no new further necessity for you
705 00:58:55 --> 00:58:59 to please spend any more time with me, but you keep coming back here because
706 00:58:59 --> 00:59:03 you see it working. So because we have Friday having a large range day likely,
707 00:59:03 --> 00:59:06 and the direction was given to you because we're focusing on buy five
708 00:59:06 --> 00:59:13 liquidity that was given to you on on Thursdays tweets, Friday's going to
709 00:59:13 --> 00:59:19 start right out the gate, real quick, real fast, so we may not get a Return
710 00:59:19 --> 00:59:27 back in the opening range gap at all. So that means trading pre market, whenever
711 00:59:27 --> 00:59:36 I think that the markets likely to create a very large range day, or if
712 00:59:36 --> 00:59:41 it's so one side, directionally, there's there's a two, there's the two caveats
713 00:59:41 --> 00:59:47 to it. I will, many times elect to trade pre market before 930 and not do
714 00:59:47 --> 00:59:51 anything as entries at all after the opening bell, because I'm already
715 00:59:51 --> 00:59:58 positioned before the before the 930 bill even starts in their use between
716 00:59:58 --> 01:00:02 seven o'clock and. Nine o'clock, something in there. I'm positioned, and
717 01:00:02 --> 01:00:06 I'm holding, I probably have had multiple partials, and I'm waiting to
718 01:00:06 --> 01:00:10 see the continuation and expansion through and blow off move that occurs
719 01:00:10 --> 01:00:15 during the opening bell and the opening range of 930, to 10 o'clock. And then if
720 01:00:15 --> 01:00:22 10 o'clock affords me a silver bullet that would allow me to do longer term
721 01:00:22 --> 01:00:27 hold, and convinces me that I should go through the entire lunch session and
722 01:00:27 --> 01:00:33 then see if I can pyramid during the lunch, macro retraces, goes down into
723 01:00:33 --> 01:00:38 liquidity I can add to that, or if I've taken partials off, I can add them back,
724 01:00:38 --> 01:00:42 plus more, because I have unrealized profit behind me still, because I've
725 01:00:42 --> 01:00:49 entered so early in the day before 930 it just gives you a whole different
726 01:00:49 --> 01:00:53 perspective on what we're doing with the daily range. It's not defined just
727 01:00:53 --> 01:00:57 because it 930 it opens up. There's a gap. There's a whole lot of other things
728 01:00:57 --> 01:01:03 going on before 930 opening bell, but not every session before 930 should be
729 01:01:03 --> 01:01:07 traded. Not every one of them should be like that. There's going to be a lot of
730 01:01:07 --> 01:01:12 times where the market doesn't do much at all pre market, and then at 930
731 01:01:12 --> 01:01:17 everything comes alive, and everything is very easy to trade, but because all
732 01:01:17 --> 01:01:22 the things I talked about in this lecture this morning coming together and
733 01:01:22 --> 01:01:26 coalescing in one day, in one session, very limited time, because the weeks get
734 01:01:26 --> 01:01:32 ready close just a real big pool of liquidity above us and the split
735 01:01:32 --> 01:01:37 delivery on the economic calendar, we have 830 and 10 O'Clock News, and we
736 01:01:37 --> 01:01:41 were already likely to have a large range gap opening. So don't look for the
737 01:01:41 --> 01:01:47 opening range gap to fill. Wait for it to just rip and run to its unfinished
738 01:01:47 --> 01:01:51 business, where the smooth areas are on your chart. So if we can define this
739 01:01:51 --> 01:01:55 range from the high down to that low, as I mentioned a moment before I went on to
740 01:01:55 --> 01:02:01 my rant, we can then look at the grading aspect. So again, this is for the folks
741 01:02:01 --> 01:02:06 that say, if I, if I post something on Twitter or if I post a video on YouTube,
742 01:02:06 --> 01:02:12 you don't see my comments. Okay, I have them set to review because there's a lot
743 01:02:12 --> 01:02:16 of people posting some weird stuff about I don't even, I can't remember what it
744 01:02:16 --> 01:02:18 is, but it's always like, I'm so thankful that you talked about some AI,
745 01:02:18 --> 01:02:22 14, something, something, whatever. It's probably some kind of crypto. I don't
746 01:02:22 --> 01:02:25 even know what it is. Even know what it is, but when one person posts, or a bot
747 01:02:25 --> 01:02:29 posts on that, there's like 80 different responses to that kind of, like,
748 01:02:30 --> 01:02:34 promoting whatever that garbage is. So if it ain't that, you know, I got one or
749 01:02:34 --> 01:02:38 two people come in here. I'm a scammer. I'm a fraud. But the rest is like, I'm
750 01:02:38 --> 01:02:41 Thank you. Thank you for sharing all that stuff. And it's just it, it just it
751 01:02:41 --> 01:02:46 would look like I'm paying for that stuff, and I'm certainly not paying for
752 01:02:46 --> 01:02:49 bots to leave comments. Okay, you should use my comment section on my YouTube
753 01:02:49 --> 01:02:53 channel as your own little study reference point, because the comments
754 01:02:53 --> 01:02:58 that you leave, you can write down in comments certain minute markers and say,
755 01:02:58 --> 01:03:02 This is where IPP talked about, you know order blocks, or when order blocks
756 01:03:03 --> 01:03:08 aren't likely to work, it allows you to have, like, a scrapbook or note taking
757 01:03:08 --> 01:03:11 aspect, because you're the only one can see, I can see your notes, but no one
758 01:03:11 --> 01:03:14 else can see that, and it doesn't clutter up. You don't have to sort
759 01:03:14 --> 01:03:19 through all the comments to find your bookmark where you walked watch the
760 01:03:19 --> 01:03:23 video up to this certain minute mark, like you, you're wasting your time. You
761 01:03:23 --> 01:03:28 know, when you don't use that, that resource, because every one of my videos
762 01:03:28 --> 01:03:37 has that ability for you, but the chance, oh, the question always comes up
763 01:03:37 --> 01:03:41 with, you know, why did you pick that fair value you got? Now, some of you are
764 01:03:41 --> 01:03:44 thinking, Yeah, that's the question. I've been wanting. You never You never
765 01:03:44 --> 01:03:51 answer me. When I'm picking specific fair value gaps, or if I'm picking order
766 01:03:51 --> 01:03:56 blocks, or if I'm looking for any specific PD array, it's not simply
767 01:03:56 --> 01:03:59 because a down closed candle makes it a normal block. It's not simply because
768 01:03:59 --> 01:04:07 there's a separation by one candle defining an exposed single delivery or
769 01:04:07 --> 01:04:12 fair value gap that makes it a tradable fair value gap for me. And this is not
770 01:04:12 --> 01:04:19 going to be encompassing the entire aspect or the complete treatment to a
771 01:04:19 --> 01:04:24 fair value gap, but it's certainly going to divide the waters, because there's a
772 01:04:24 --> 01:04:29 lot of people out there that are teaching fair value gap, and they don't
773 01:04:29 --> 01:04:33 know what they're talking about, and I want you to take notes here, because
774 01:04:33 --> 01:04:40 you're hurting your students when you don't know this, and You're also messing
775 01:04:40 --> 01:04:44 up the consistency that my concepts have, because when people watch your
776 01:04:44 --> 01:04:48 shit and you're not crediting me, you're not taking any attention back to my
777 01:04:48 --> 01:04:53 channel where they can further learn. I don't mind that you're demonstrating it
778 01:04:53 --> 01:04:57 in your YouTube channel. I don't care that you're doing that. Go do that. It's
779 01:04:57 --> 01:04:57 wonderful.
780 01:04:57 --> 01:05:01 I love watching my students do that. But when. Someone steps out and they pretend
781 01:05:01 --> 01:05:05 they're doing to be the mentor with them, you need to sit down. And I mean
782 01:05:05 --> 01:05:09 that like you don't know what the you're doing, and you're literally scamming
783 01:05:09 --> 01:05:12 people and defrauding them if you're getting paid to do it. Because I'm
784 01:05:12 --> 01:05:15 telling everybody, there ain't one person out there teaching my concepts
785 01:05:15 --> 01:05:21 that's doing it right. And the story pin, that's it. That's it. You're
786 01:05:21 --> 01:05:26 looking for fair value gaps that match this. Okay? If you're looking at a
787 01:05:26 --> 01:05:32 mentor, pseudo mentor, okay, a faux personal, okay, the fake professionals
788 01:05:32 --> 01:05:38 out there, if they're defining anything outside of this, right away, you already
789 01:05:38 --> 01:05:41 know that they don't know what they're talking about. And go watch their old
790 01:05:41 --> 01:05:44 videos, and you'll see them doing it wrong based on this information, okay?
791 01:05:44 --> 01:05:49 And that's why their shit didn't work. Then when you have a dealing range, and
792 01:05:49 --> 01:05:54 we define that from this high here, and it's dropping down back to a PD array
793 01:05:54 --> 01:05:59 over here, this was a stop run. So we we mix this. We don't even pay attention to
794 01:05:59 --> 01:06:02 this candlestick. All that was a little bump. Take that high, and then price
795 01:06:02 --> 01:06:09 went lower today, yet it drops back down to a discount. I'm looking at this high
796 01:06:09 --> 01:06:13 here and the bodies, because this wick is just like this one. It's doing
797 01:06:13 --> 01:06:18 damage. I'm going to go back to the bodies here, and I showed you by drawing
798 01:06:18 --> 01:06:21 that out in time. That's the return to it here. And then we have a shift in
799 01:06:21 --> 01:06:25 market structure. You can define it with define it with, with this high here. And
800 01:06:25 --> 01:06:28 there's nothing wrong with that in this case, because we are expecting what a
801 01:06:28 --> 01:06:31 large range day to deliver today on Friday, because Thursday was this Inside
802 01:06:31 --> 01:06:38 Day. Using this one, it qualifies it even further, because when it trades
803 01:06:38 --> 01:06:41 above this one, it's one candle, and then the next candle trades about that
804 01:06:41 --> 01:06:46 high. So it shifts market structure bullish. So any retracement back down
805 01:06:46 --> 01:06:53 into this inefficiency here should be viewed as, what a discount array now,
806 01:06:55 --> 01:07:00 because this high is the highest high in this retracement in a market that's
807 01:07:00 --> 01:07:08 bullish we can grade that price swing. This is not quarters theory. It's not
808 01:07:08 --> 01:07:12 quarterly theory, and none of that stuff. Okay, this is grading a price
809 01:07:12 --> 01:07:17 swing. I do this with actual dealing ranges, as you see here, and then also
810 01:07:17 --> 01:07:22 do this in price runs, where I either expect to enter or when I actually enter
811 01:07:22 --> 01:07:26 the trade, and then where my target is. I know by doing what I'm about to show
812 01:07:26 --> 01:07:29 you here, and you've seen me do this before, but if it's the first time, I'm
813 01:07:29 --> 01:07:35 kind of give you a preamble of why it's important, which is usefulness to it, I
814 01:07:35 --> 01:07:44 can predict where my future PD arrays are going to form. Now this is something
815 01:07:44 --> 01:07:48 that I can transfer to you, but I already know where fair value that's
816 01:07:48 --> 01:07:52 going to form before the dealing range even forms. And I know that's hard to
817 01:07:52 --> 01:07:57 believe, but that's, that's, that's the superpower ICP has so and I know that's
818 01:07:57 --> 01:08:01 going to cause a lot of stack and people going to put sound bites about this is
819 01:08:01 --> 01:08:04 where he said, Yep, and you're going to talk about me, and people are going to
820 01:08:04 --> 01:08:07 come to the channel. They're going to learn that's how it works. So here's
821 01:08:07 --> 01:08:10 your dealing range, okay? And equilibrium is the halfway point right
822 01:08:10 --> 01:08:21 here. So ideally, your best entries, lowest risk, highest yield in terms of r
823 01:08:21 --> 01:08:29 multiples is going to be entered on a long at or below this line. Peer
824 01:08:29 --> 01:08:39 emitting has to be limited to this price level here or lower now. Is that
825 01:08:39 --> 01:08:43 ambiguous? Is there a lot of moving parts to that? Nope, it's very simple,
826 01:08:43 --> 01:08:47 straightforward. Now, how can we use this information to pick the right fair
827 01:08:47 --> 01:08:51 value gaps? How can we use this information to pick the right order
828 01:08:51 --> 01:08:57 blocks? Oh, man, you're gonna have to come back on Monday for me to get to
829 01:08:57 --> 01:09:01 that. I'm just kidding. You were pissed off for a second. Oh, no.
830 01:09:05 --> 01:09:06 I love my job.
831 01:09:07 --> 01:09:10 Here we have the upper and lower quadrants. Okay? And this is when you
832 01:09:10 --> 01:09:16 want to take a picture. You can see that these are my quadrant levels. Optimal
833 01:09:16 --> 01:09:20 trade entry level here this when I need to pull up the OT I just change the 0.75
834 01:09:21 --> 01:09:30 to 0.725 or 0.79 because I round it, I don't do the 78% which is I do 70% and
835 01:09:30 --> 01:09:35 then the rest are. These are over here. These are extensions that they're not
836 01:09:35 --> 01:09:37 going to be taught to you until they're in the book format. It's using the
837 01:09:37 --> 01:09:41 opening range gap and stand deviations, so it kind of picks the high and low of
838 01:09:41 --> 01:09:47 the day, and that's a little hanger for you, too. But what we're seeing here is
839 01:09:47 --> 01:09:53 the quadrant that is grading this dealing range from the high down to that
840 01:09:53 --> 01:09:58 low. Now think about it. Yesterday, I took your attention, told you to start
841 01:09:58 --> 01:10:02 focusing on the. Relative equal highs where everything was left smooth in the
842 01:10:02 --> 01:10:09 marketplace. That's our bias is bullish. So that means we're going to be looking
843 01:10:09 --> 01:10:13 for draws on liquidity, for buy side. We're not interested in shorts. So that
844 01:10:13 --> 01:10:16 means you're going to look for bullish order blocks. It means you're going to
845 01:10:16 --> 01:10:20 look for bullish breakers. It means you're going to look for bullish fair
846 01:10:20 --> 01:10:23 value gaps, or you're going to look for fair value gaps that were initially
847 01:10:23 --> 01:10:27 characterized as what would be short, selling or premium, that's going to be
848 01:10:28 --> 01:10:32 broken, and then treated as an inversion fair value gap. You see how everything
849 01:10:32 --> 01:10:36 changes to these are usable PDA rates. These are reference points that now you
850 01:10:36 --> 01:10:42 can suddenly build an idea on an expectation round versus every down
851 01:10:42 --> 01:10:49 closed candle should be an order block. It's not. It's not. So at 830 the
852 01:10:49 --> 01:10:52 algorithm kicks in whether there's news or not, but we had medium impact news
853 01:10:52 --> 01:10:59 driver this morning. So at 830 the market trades into our discount array,
854 01:11:00 --> 01:11:04 and then we wait for what displacement. We don't just go down here. Start buying
855 01:11:04 --> 01:11:09 just because it's trading there. Let the algorithm tip its hand to you. Let the
856 01:11:09 --> 01:11:14 market say, Listen, I'm going to show you what I'm about to do. Pay attention.
857 01:11:14 --> 01:11:18 So the market goes above the short term high here. What makes this candlestick
858 01:11:18 --> 01:11:22 important? It's lower high here, and it's lower high here, so that's a swing
859 01:11:22 --> 01:11:27 high. So when the market breaks above that, that's a shift in market
860 01:11:27 --> 01:11:34 structure. So we can see it as such. So that's a shift in market structure. Go
861 01:11:34 --> 01:11:38 back and look at model 2022, mentorship videos, and you'll see it's very similar
862 01:11:38 --> 01:11:44 to that. And then it displaces higher. And then we have another swing high,
863 01:11:44 --> 01:11:48 this candle thick, high is lower than that one. And then the lower high on
864 01:11:48 --> 01:11:53 this one. So there's a swing high there. It broke both of them, leaving what this
865 01:11:53 --> 01:12:01 buy side imbalance cells on efficiency, a portion of the order block or a
866 01:12:01 --> 01:12:06 portion of the fair value gap. Must listen, folks, listen, listen, listen,
867 01:12:06 --> 01:12:15 okay, it must be at or below the quadrant level. Here's your lower
868 01:12:15 --> 01:12:22 quadrant level, here's your fair value gap. Is this fair value gap at or below
869 01:12:22 --> 01:12:27 the lower quadrant. Yes, that means that this fair value gap is a proper
870 01:12:27 --> 01:12:34 candidate to be long when you're bullish when time 830 spooling at 830 that's the
871 01:12:34 --> 01:12:44 only 30 minute delineator for a macro everything else is 315 to 345 for the
872 01:12:44 --> 01:12:50 last hour trading. And then you have the first 10 minutes to the top of the hour,
873 01:12:50 --> 01:12:54 and the first 10 minutes after the top of the hour, that's every hour macro.
874 01:12:54 --> 01:12:59 Okay, so there's your there's your little skinny on the macros. But 830
875 01:12:59 --> 01:13:04 whether it's news or not, the algorithm will start spooling. If it doesn't start
876 01:13:04 --> 01:13:07 spooling and running, then you just simply wait, because it's telling you
877 01:13:07 --> 01:13:10 that it's waiting for the 930 opening bell. So what happens if, if you're
878 01:13:10 --> 01:13:14 anticipating something here, it just just meanders around or goes lower, do
879 01:13:14 --> 01:13:20 nothing, sit still and wait for 930 opening bell. But because I built the
880 01:13:20 --> 01:13:26 case around everything I'm talking about today. See, we're already inside of the
881 01:13:26 --> 01:13:29 equivalent of two chapters in a book, just with this live stream. Just this
882 01:13:29 --> 01:13:33 live stream talking about the impacts of knowing how to use the economic
883 01:13:33 --> 01:13:37 calendar, knowing how to use the day of week phenomenon, understanding the pools
884 01:13:37 --> 01:13:41 of liquidity and the pdra matrix, and how to now use that information and
885 01:13:41 --> 01:13:46 define which order block, which fair value gaps are the one I trade off of,
886 01:13:46 --> 01:13:50 because that's the one the algorithm is going to use. That's authorship, that's
887 01:13:50 --> 01:13:56 fingerprints, okay? By defining this with the quadrant level, here your fair
888 01:13:56 --> 01:13:59 value gap or order block, which is this down closed candle, right? There is that
889 01:13:59 --> 01:14:08 below that quadrant level? Yes, yes. Is this fair value gap at or less than this
890 01:14:08 --> 01:14:14 quadrant level of this dealing range? Yes. Now watch what happened. The market
891 01:14:14 --> 01:14:17 trades down. We have a little bit of a mohawk. That's fine, because you have an
892 01:14:17 --> 01:14:27 order block there. That order block right here. Why am I using that one? Why
893 01:14:27 --> 01:14:28 am I specifically using that one?
894 01:14:33 --> 01:14:39 Because it has the lowest down close in with a body, so the body's projection
895 01:14:39 --> 01:14:45 lower, it's lower, and we don't use this wick. This is your order block, right
896 01:14:45 --> 01:14:53 there. So half of that order block is a mean threshold reference point. It's not
897 01:14:53 --> 01:14:57 consequent encroachment. Consequence encroachment is gaps or inefficiencies
898 01:14:57 --> 01:15:03 or width, okay, when the. So candlestick body, in this case, it's a bull shorter
899 01:15:03 --> 01:15:10 block. Half of that range is mean threshold. That price is 452.75 what's
900 01:15:10 --> 01:15:19 the low of that candlestick? The fucking low of 450 2.75 folks. That's
901 01:15:19 --> 01:15:25 perfection. Elliott Wave wishes he fucking knew this. Sam SEIDEN has no
902 01:15:25 --> 01:15:29 idea how to fucking do that. No light. Well, maybe he does now he's watching my
903 01:15:29 --> 01:15:33 videos and stuff. But there is no other school of thought that teaches that.
904 01:15:34 --> 01:15:39 None. White cough has no fucking idea, no idea. He's rolling around in his
905 01:15:39 --> 01:15:41 grave right now wishing he had a fucking pen and pad right now. I wish I would
906 01:15:41 --> 01:15:46 have put that in my writings then he didn't know about it. Okay? And
907 01:15:46 --> 01:15:49 everybody that uses white cough, they don't have this information in there.
908 01:15:49 --> 01:15:54 Sorry, but that's perfect to the tick, but that's supposed to be buying and
909 01:15:54 --> 01:15:58 selling pressure, right? Buying and selling pressure on the next
910 01:15:58 --> 01:16:05 candlestick, right there? What's the candlesticks below there, 20,452.75 not
911 01:16:06 --> 01:16:14 one deviation off by one tick left or above. That value perfectly delivered.
912 01:16:14 --> 01:16:20 And you're going to tell me, you're going to argue with me that it's buying
913 01:16:20 --> 01:16:25 and selling pressure, the randomness of everybody coming together and buying and
914 01:16:25 --> 01:16:29 selling on their bullshit that's going to cause the market to stop right there,
915 01:16:29 --> 01:16:35 right? You know, it takes more faith to believe that than it simply that there's
916 01:16:35 --> 01:16:39 an autonomous price engine that literally is controlling the
917 01:16:39 --> 01:16:44 fluctuations in the ebb and flow until it's manually disturbed by intervention.
918 01:16:45 --> 01:16:49 That's what's going on. And you can argue with me all you want, but you're
919 01:16:49 --> 01:16:55 never going to convince the author. You're never going to convince me, and
920 01:16:55 --> 01:16:59 you're never going to convince my students have now seen it. They use it.
921 01:16:59 --> 01:17:02 They make money with it. They can predict it. They can anticipate they can
922 01:17:02 --> 01:17:06 see it. And some of them have communities where they're doing it in
923 01:17:06 --> 01:17:11 the witness of others continuously, and you're never going to convince them that
924 01:17:11 --> 01:17:16 they didn't witness it, not just once, not once in a blue moon every fucking
925 01:17:16 --> 01:17:22 day. Now find that and anything else out there, it's not so the market does what
926 01:17:22 --> 01:17:26 it rallies back up and look what it does. It delivers into this volume and
927 01:17:26 --> 01:17:30 balance, see that. So this volume balance, it delivers it what's it
928 01:17:30 --> 01:17:34 missing? Buy side and sell side, delivery. So it lays a body up in there,
929 01:17:34 --> 01:17:38 so it buries a body inside that volume of balance, and then drops right back
930 01:17:38 --> 01:17:48 down into what that swing high here, rallies back up, leaves the lower
931 01:17:48 --> 01:17:54 quadrant, trades up to equilibrium, meanders around in here and then causes,
932 01:17:54 --> 01:17:59 what another displacement. What is this candlestick right there? What is that?
933 01:18:01 --> 01:18:02 It's a fair value gap,
934 01:18:03 --> 01:18:03 well.
935 01:18:03 --> 01:18:11 ICT, why didn't you use this one? See, he doesn't even use his own logic. He
936 01:18:11 --> 01:18:15 doesn't even use his own stuff. He's he's making it up as he goes along. Why
937 01:18:15 --> 01:18:18 didn't He use that fair value gap? ICT, why should use now? Because, isn't that
938 01:18:18 --> 01:18:25 a fair value efficiency? Ain't that the thing? Ain't that the thing? No, because
939 01:18:25 --> 01:18:28 where's that? The majority of the body of that bison Valentine efficiency is
940 01:18:28 --> 01:18:40 what above that quadrant, starting to make sense now in it. So here we have,
941 01:18:40 --> 01:18:45 what equilibrium we're at that we're at that precipice where, if you're building
942 01:18:45 --> 01:18:50 a position in all this down here, pyramiding, like you've seen me do many,
943 01:18:50 --> 01:18:56 many times, we're at that halfway point of that dealing range. That means you
944 01:18:56 --> 01:19:01 have to do all of your business at that price range here or less, you're going
945 01:19:01 --> 01:19:05 to be pyramiding. Otherwise, if you start adding up in here or above it,
946 01:19:05 --> 01:19:11 you're really just tossing good money after potentially, you might see a
947 01:19:11 --> 01:19:15 retracement, even though it's low resistance liquidity runs, meaning that
948 01:19:15 --> 01:19:20 we're not getting a whole lot of deep retracements. What's a characteristic of
949 01:19:21 --> 01:19:22 low resistance, liquidity
950 01:19:22 --> 01:19:22 runs.
951 01:19:23 --> 01:19:29 Do you remember? Do you remember what it is down closed candles will support
952 01:19:29 --> 01:19:36 price higher, and inefficiencies will leave a portion open. Is that hard to
953 01:19:36 --> 01:19:40 remember? I've already said it before, but you probably forgot. But now this is
954 01:19:40 --> 01:19:45 behind when you write down your journal every day, when you first start your
955 01:19:45 --> 01:19:49 day, have that written down in front of you on your notepad. High resistance
956 01:19:49 --> 01:19:54 liquidity runs are going to see a lot of give and take back and forth, and every
957 01:19:54 --> 01:19:59 fair value gap will be closed in remember, if it's spending a lot of
958 01:19:59 --> 01:20:06 time. Time and the inefficiencies. What is it doing? It's telling you what we're
959 01:20:06 --> 01:20:09 inside of, high resistance. That means it's going to be problematic for you.
960 01:20:09 --> 01:20:12 You're not going to be comfortable in it. It's going to be back and forth,
961 01:20:12 --> 01:20:17 price action. Don't run your stop loss up real quick to break even, just let it
962 01:20:17 --> 01:20:24 move or don't trade. It's that's the characteristics with it. So in here we
963 01:20:24 --> 01:20:29 are in close proximity to equilibrium from the dealing range high, dealing
964 01:20:29 --> 01:20:34 range low, we've already accumulated down here, rallied up, equilibrium,
965 01:20:34 --> 01:20:38 retracement and then displacement here. So we are seeing this fair value gap,
966 01:20:38 --> 01:20:43 dead in the middle, consequent encroachment. We can now take that also
967 01:20:43 --> 01:20:49 so because it's laying inside of equilibrium, and half of that gap is
968 01:20:49 --> 01:20:52 basically overlapping that blue line, which is equilibrium of the dealing
969 01:20:52 --> 01:21:00 range when you're bullish, how could you use that now you can try to put a limit
970 01:21:00 --> 01:21:03 order to buy right at the midpoint, trusting that it's going to leave the
971 01:21:03 --> 01:21:09 lower portion open. Notice how it left this down here open. What is that? It's
972 01:21:10 --> 01:21:15 a breakaway cap. This is a tradable, fair value gap, but because the
973 01:21:15 --> 01:21:23 consequent encroachment of this gap, which is this, watch, that's this line
974 01:21:23 --> 01:21:27 right here. Okay, it's overlapping with the equilibrium price point, or middle
975 01:21:27 --> 01:21:34 of the high to that low. So it's a convergence of two factors of
976 01:21:35 --> 01:21:40 equilibrium or midpoint. So this is where a institutional order flow entry
977 01:21:40 --> 01:21:45 drill would be optimal, because you would expect what, only a partial entry
978 01:21:45 --> 01:21:50 into that that blue shaded area or fair value got, trust me, my charter members
979 01:21:50 --> 01:21:53 are flipping out right now because they were never taught this. You're learning
980 01:21:53 --> 01:22:00 it with them. So this is institutional water flow entry drill, and just because
981 01:22:00 --> 01:22:05 my watermark is not on this video. If you upload on your channel to try to
982 01:22:05 --> 01:22:08 make ad revenue of it, I'm going to yank it down and put a copy strike against
983 01:22:08 --> 01:22:11 it. And if it's a challenge, you're already making ad revenue off of it's
984 01:22:11 --> 01:22:14 going to hurt you to don't do that. You don't have enough permission. So this is
985 01:22:14 --> 01:22:21 institutional order flow entry jail. Or you can use the upper quadrant of this
986 01:22:21 --> 01:22:22 range, and that would be done like this.
987 01:22:33 --> 01:22:38 And you would use that price plus one tick, that that 462 and three quarters
988 01:22:39 --> 01:22:43 plus one tick, and that would be your entry that would that would basically
989 01:22:43 --> 01:22:47 give you a very specific, not a zone entry, very specific price level. That
990 01:22:47 --> 01:22:53 would constitute an institutional order for entry drill. Institutional oriental
991 01:22:53 --> 01:22:56 entry drill is a entry model where you're expecting a fair value gap to be
992 01:22:56 --> 01:23:04 traded into, but not fully clothed in and because you're expecting low
993 01:23:04 --> 01:23:07 resistance liquidity run conditions today, because of all the things I
994 01:23:07 --> 01:23:11 talked about in the first quarter of the or first half of this lecture today, all
995 01:23:11 --> 01:23:14 those things building and coalescing with the idea that it's going to be a
996 01:23:14 --> 01:23:17 large range day. It's going to be explosive at the opening any opening
997 01:23:17 --> 01:23:21 range gap should not be expected to be traded to even though there's a 70%
998 01:23:21 --> 01:23:25 likelihood that half the gap should be repriced to in the first 30 minutes,
999 01:23:25 --> 01:23:28 throw that to the sidelines and expect them to just really make a mad dash to
1000 01:23:28 --> 01:23:33 get to the liquidity that we've outlined. So low resistance liquidity
1001 01:23:33 --> 01:23:38 run entries in here. Low resistant liquidity run entries here. And then
1002 01:23:38 --> 01:23:45 this is a gap that is what below the upper quadrant, and this is where I
1003 01:23:45 --> 01:23:50 would use to see if I'm on side. Now you can take that and enter right. There's
1004 01:23:50 --> 01:23:55 nothing saying that you can't use that as a model. I'm not saying that I'm I'd
1005 01:23:55 --> 01:23:59 be comfortable doing that. I could do it, but because I have to have
1006 01:23:59 --> 01:24:03 principles and protocols and procedures to follow, because otherwise I'm left to
1007 01:24:03 --> 01:24:08 my flesh, and my flesh will do like it did yesterday, and put me in things that
1008 01:24:08 --> 01:24:12 I shouldn't be doing. So when I try to fancy dance and finesse my own stuff and
1009 01:24:12 --> 01:24:17 try to, you know, let my own experience dictate what I should do versus the
1010 01:24:17 --> 01:24:21 process, the protocol, the model, the rules, stay on the right side of the
1011 01:24:21 --> 01:24:25 road. Don't cross the yellow line. Michael, well, if you're listening to
1012 01:24:25 --> 01:24:30 me, you're trading ends on the entries here, or less, anything above it, you're
1013 01:24:30 --> 01:24:36 just using it for management purposes. So when this fair value gap forms, this
1014 01:24:36 --> 01:24:41 is a valid fair value gap, but it should not fully close in why? Because we're in
1015 01:24:41 --> 01:24:46 low resistance liquidity run conditions. We're in a early session of a potential,
1016 01:24:46 --> 01:24:51 large range day that's bullish, and we're at the quadrant, upper quadrant,
1017 01:24:51 --> 01:24:56 and less see that. So what does that create in here? This candle sticks low.
1018 01:24:56 --> 01:24:59 That's an institutional or flow entry drill. That's an institutional or flow
1019 01:24:59 --> 01:25:03 entry drill. That's an institutional order for entry drill, leaving what
1020 01:25:04 --> 01:25:09 portion of the range open that is telling you continuous feedback that
1021 01:25:09 --> 01:25:14 yes, down close, candles, consecutively. That's an order block draw that out in
1022 01:25:14 --> 01:25:21 time. Hits it does it support price? Yes, in and of it by itself, nope. Half
1023 01:25:21 --> 01:25:27 of this gap at equilibrium and an order block, this portion should stay open. It
1024 01:25:27 --> 01:25:32 should not trade back down to this one, because that's a breakaway gap. All
1025 01:25:32 --> 01:25:36 those things are signatures and characteristic of low resistance,
1026 01:25:36 --> 01:25:40 liquidity run folks. There's nobody else that's taught that stuff, and that's the
1027 01:25:40 --> 01:25:46 stuff that I didn't know, that I needed to know, because when I trade in these
1028 01:25:46 --> 01:25:51 environments, it's flawless. That's why, when you watch my execution, you're
1029 01:25:51 --> 01:25:55 like, What in the hell? And you see my stop losses, and they're ultra, ultra
1030 01:25:55 --> 01:25:58 tight, and I'm sitting comfy, and they're getting real close to it. I'm
1031 01:25:58 --> 01:26:02 not worried about it. I'll add right there. I just shared it with the other
1032 01:26:02 --> 01:26:05 day. I added right into it when it was getting close to my stop loss more,
1033 01:26:05 --> 01:26:10 because I know your jaws would hit the floor and then all the comments that
1034 01:26:10 --> 01:26:14 came behind that trade well in the hell yeah, because I'm using what I'm showing
1035 01:26:14 --> 01:26:20 you right here. When you enter in here, your stop loss can be just below this
1036 01:26:20 --> 01:26:23 candle sticks high because it's not going to go down the lower bottom that
1037 01:26:23 --> 01:26:28 that fair Vega, because we're in low resistance liquidity runs. The algorithm
1038 01:26:28 --> 01:26:32 is controlling this. So if you know what the mechanism is going to be when it is
1039 01:26:32 --> 01:26:38 seeing these things based on defining your your dealing range, knowing what
1040 01:26:38 --> 01:26:42 equilibrium is, if you're bullish, you're buying at it, below it, in every
1041 01:26:42 --> 01:26:48 fair value gap, or in this case, order block, isn't this an order block down,
1042 01:26:48 --> 01:26:51 close candle, down, close candle, two consecutive down, closed candles. That's
1043 01:26:51 --> 01:26:57 all one range. It's doing what it's delivering, price, lower, does that
1044 01:26:57 --> 01:27:00 down? Close candle, support price going higher when it comes back down to it
1045 01:27:00 --> 01:27:11 here, yes. Then price goes where higher, down close candles here, 123, and then
1046 01:27:11 --> 01:27:15 it creates that final institutional or financial entry drill, like it did here,
1047 01:27:15 --> 01:27:21 in this range here, going right below the high of the fair value gap. Same
1048 01:27:21 --> 01:27:24 thing here, this candle sticks low. That's the high of this blue shaded
1049 01:27:24 --> 01:27:30 area, or fair value gap. So it's trading back down into that. But isn't that also
1050 01:27:33 --> 01:27:44 reaching into the order box, supporting price right when we're seeing price
1051 01:27:44 --> 01:27:49 trade down into it, this candlestick here isn't that an order block. And then
1052 01:27:49 --> 01:27:54 the down closed candle, when price is moving higher inside that candlesticks
1053 01:27:54 --> 01:27:57 range, it's trading down into it. And it's rare that it does this, but
1054 01:27:57 --> 01:28:01 sometimes it will. It'll trade to the low the candlesticks. I don't like that.
1055 01:28:01 --> 01:28:06 I would never enter on a trade like that. I want to see half of a bullish
1056 01:28:06 --> 01:28:11 order block the mean threshold or higher to a tie. I want to see price use that,
1057 01:28:11 --> 01:28:19 that that portion of it to trade down into and then repel price away. When
1058 01:28:19 --> 01:28:22 you're looking for dojis or tails beneath the candlestick, like we're
1059 01:28:22 --> 01:28:27 saying here and here, those are forming inside order blocks or inside fair value
1060 01:28:27 --> 01:28:31 gaps. When the order flow is bullish, you can anticipate these things forming.
1061 01:28:33 --> 01:28:37 That's why, when you look at my entries, I'm always entering on the very lowest
1062 01:28:37 --> 01:28:42 candle, or the one candle before, or the one candle after, the lowest candle.
1063 01:28:42 --> 01:28:46 When I'm bullish, don't take my word for it. Go back and look at every example
1064 01:28:46 --> 01:28:52 I've showed when I'm executing with live data, no Market Replay. I'm using what
1065 01:28:52 --> 01:28:56 I'm teaching you right here, now on the market. Then leaves this range and
1066 01:28:56 --> 01:29:01 breaks above the dealing range here. And then we're going into what we're going
1067 01:29:01 --> 01:29:05 into that nine o'clock hour, and we trade up into new week, opening gap
1068 01:29:06 --> 01:29:18 here. I said something that would have been too crude, not in the sense that
1069 01:29:18 --> 01:29:22 would have been vulgar, but I was always mentioned someone's name, but they're
1070 01:29:22 --> 01:29:27 probably watching, and they know I mentioned this price level, 20,004 95 I
1071 01:29:27 --> 01:29:32 mentioned that yesterday, that was my target, and it hit there. I prompted
1072 01:29:32 --> 01:29:37 them when it when it hit too, by the way, we traded up to just short of
1073 01:29:38 --> 01:29:41 consequent creation of new week opening gap. Now this is current new week
1074 01:29:41 --> 01:29:45 opening gap. Notice I don't have 1000 different new week opening gaps. I don't
1075 01:29:45 --> 01:29:49 have every new day opening gap on my chart. Some of you are leaving comments
1076 01:29:49 --> 01:29:53 saying that I am so confused I have all these lines in my chart because you're
1077 01:29:53 --> 01:30:00 trying to put everything that's in the kitchen sink in front of you. You. I
1078 01:30:00 --> 01:30:08 don't do that. All you need, sincerely, all you need is a draw on liquidity that
1079 01:30:08 --> 01:30:12 might be a session high. That means, like a morning session or a morning, I'm
1080 01:30:12 --> 01:30:19 sorry, a pm session from the previous day, a London session, high or low, an
1081 01:30:19 --> 01:30:23 Asian session, high or low, wherever you think the market's going to gravitate to
1082 01:30:23 --> 01:30:29 for the purposes of of tapping in and engaging liquidity. Where is it smooth?
1083 01:30:29 --> 01:30:33 Where is there a single high? Because it doesn't, it isn't always relative equal
1084 01:30:33 --> 01:30:36 highs and relative equal lows. That's just the easy things that a new student
1085 01:30:36 --> 01:30:41 I've learned that it's, it's very easy for them to spot that, just like a fair
1086 01:30:41 --> 01:30:45 value gap, you can you can see there's gaps, but you just don't know. Now, you
1087 01:30:45 --> 01:30:50 know how I formulate an idea around the Fairbank gap that I want to trade on.
1088 01:30:51 --> 01:30:55 Just because it's a gap doesn't mean that's the one I'm trading. And that's
1089 01:30:55 --> 01:30:57 why these Yahoos out there will say, oh, there's it's running through the
1090 01:30:57 --> 01:31:00 Fairbank because you're a fucking idiot. You don't know what you're talking about
1091 01:31:00 --> 01:31:03 you're listening to other people. They've ripped me off and they ended
1092 01:31:03 --> 01:31:09 running mentorships, teaching people for pay monthly fees when they don't let
1093 01:31:09 --> 01:31:11 themselves know what the hell they're doing. They have no idea what they're
1094 01:31:11 --> 01:31:15 doing. But watch and see how this all finds its way into their mentorships.
1095 01:31:15 --> 01:31:20 Now watch and see, and you still don't have the half of it. That's what the
1096 01:31:20 --> 01:31:25 books are for. Twist the nice ICT. Twist it ever so slowly. So here is the
1097 01:31:25 --> 01:31:28 consequent encroachment of the new week opening gap. Now again, the new week
1098 01:31:28 --> 01:31:35 opening gap is the difference between 4/59 closing price on Friday Eastern
1099 01:31:35 --> 01:31:41 Standard Time to 6pm Sunday, Eastern times opening price, and then the
1100 01:31:41 --> 01:31:46 difference between those two price points. The halfway point is this little
1101 01:31:46 --> 01:31:49 dotted line right here, which is consequent encroachment. So we see it
1102 01:31:49 --> 01:31:53 fail to get to it initially here, and then it drops down outside of the new
1103 01:31:53 --> 01:31:56 week opening gap. Does that mean it's going to lower? No. Then the market
1104 01:31:56 --> 01:31:59 rallies back up and trades to the high the new week opening gap. And then now,
1105 01:31:59 --> 01:32:02 what do you want? What do you what do you want to see happen? Well, remember,
1106 01:32:02 --> 01:32:06 we have all that liquidity up in the six hundreds. We still have some range to
1107 01:32:06 --> 01:32:12 go. Look, we're in the 400 still, the market drops back down to some random
1108 01:32:13 --> 01:32:22 level, some absolutely random level, some random stops dead in its tracks and
1109 01:32:23 --> 01:32:31 starts delivering price higher. And then, ahead of 930 they run against
1110 01:32:31 --> 01:32:32 those individuals that are on side.
1111 01:32:34 --> 01:32:39 And all this movement here even the model 2022 guys, ICT stuff. Oh, this is
1112 01:32:39 --> 01:32:44 a classic ICT model 22 we have a shift in market structure. There's a fair
1113 01:32:44 --> 01:32:47 value gap right there. It trades all the way back up to a premium. And then it's
1114 01:32:47 --> 01:32:50 also optimal trade entry. And look at this. It's selling. Oh yeah, look at
1115 01:32:50 --> 01:32:54 that, beautiful if you didn't take a partial, your ass is handed to you. It's
1116 01:32:54 --> 01:32:59 just being delivered back to what price level. Consequent encouragement,
1117 01:33:00 --> 01:33:06 consequent encouragement, consequent encroachment. And then at 930 all hell
1118 01:33:06 --> 01:33:16 breaks loose. Boom, manual intervention, yes, because the hand says we're not
1119 01:33:16 --> 01:33:23 letting those buy stops off the hook, rip and run. You see this delivery
1120 01:33:24 --> 01:33:27 stopping dead in its tracks on here? If you never would have been taught the new
1121 01:33:27 --> 01:33:34 week opening gap, settle down. I didn't invent a gap opening on Sunday. I didn't
1122 01:33:34 --> 01:33:41 invent that. I codified the concept of using that gap. We're on fucking Friday,
1123 01:33:41 --> 01:33:46 folks. That was on Sunday. It's been trading around, up, down, through and
1124 01:33:46 --> 01:33:52 all that stuff. But the time it's using those levels with the narrative that
1125 01:33:52 --> 01:33:55 it's likely to go higher, because the bias is bullish, because it's an
1126 01:33:55 --> 01:33:59 election year, and we're not trying to pick the top in a primary bull market,
1127 01:33:59 --> 01:34:04 when you have these things come together. You have Blue Ribbon results.
1128 01:34:04 --> 01:34:09 You have two good to be true type results. That's what I'm showing you
1129 01:34:09 --> 01:34:13 examples on I show you examples when I know everything that I teach you is in
1130 01:34:13 --> 01:34:18 my favor, if I try to trade every fair value gap just because there's three
1131 01:34:18 --> 01:34:22 candles in the chart, and one of them single passes through between the two,
1132 01:34:22 --> 01:34:26 and I use that as the entry model for going long or short without a bias,
1133 01:34:26 --> 01:34:29 without the right time of day. If I'm doing ahead of an economic calendar
1134 01:34:29 --> 01:34:32 event, that's going to probably be used as a smoke screen to move price around.
1135 01:34:32 --> 01:34:36 Am I going to be successful with that? No, I'm not going to be successful with
1136 01:34:36 --> 01:34:40 that. No way. Nobody would. But because you're a goober and you're trying to
1137 01:34:40 --> 01:34:42 learn how in five minutes, and you're listening to other people that know
1138 01:34:42 --> 01:34:45 people that know what the fuck they're talking about. Either you come here with
1139 01:34:45 --> 01:34:48 the preconceived notion that it should be perfect and it should be taught to
1140 01:34:48 --> 01:34:51 you in one fell swoop, sweep in a five minute trainer, and there it is. And
1141 01:34:51 --> 01:34:56 there's too many facets to the markets. They're too complex for you to have a
1142 01:34:56 --> 01:35:00 one rule set based model where this is all you need to. Worry about that's not
1143 01:35:00 --> 01:35:05 that's not realistic, folks, you have to have a draw on liquidity. You define
1144 01:35:05 --> 01:35:10 that by liquidity above or below session highs and session lows. That means
1145 01:35:10 --> 01:35:15 Asian. Session PM, session in New York, am session in New York, the lunch hour
1146 01:35:15 --> 01:35:20 in New York, that's 1130 to the 130 with the highest high and the lowest low.
1147 01:35:20 --> 01:35:23 Between those two reference points, that's what the launch macro is going to
1148 01:35:23 --> 01:35:30 identify and attack. Then you have the free market between seven o'clock and
1149 01:35:30 --> 01:35:34 nine o'clock. What's the session? High and low of that? Then you have the
1150 01:35:34 --> 01:35:38 london session. Then you have Asian session. How many opportunities is that
1151 01:35:38 --> 01:35:45 all in and of itself, just for drawing liquidity, that's a lot. You're never
1152 01:35:45 --> 01:35:49 running short on opportunities, but the opportunities to reach that liquidity,
1153 01:35:50 --> 01:35:53 does it really match with what the economic counter is affording you? Does
1154 01:35:53 --> 01:35:58 it give you? Let's look at the time I'm I'm going over Arna, good thing. I'm not
1155 01:35:59 --> 01:36:02 getting paid hourly, huh? The boss would be pissed off. You're working too much
1156 01:36:02 --> 01:36:06 every time. ICT go back to behind your ass a pig slip get the up on out of
1157 01:36:06 --> 01:36:10 here. We'll find somebody cheaper. You ain't going to find nobody better, baby.
1158 01:36:10 --> 01:36:19 So the rundown into consequence, ripping higher is all part of this larger range
1159 01:36:19 --> 01:36:23 delivery that has been encapsulated around Thursday, create an Inside Day.
1160 01:36:23 --> 01:36:27 So it's a compression. And then we know there's a large range expansion on
1161 01:36:27 --> 01:36:32 Friday, likely to happen, and you want to be pre market entry, and then let it
1162 01:36:32 --> 01:36:36 go, and then it trades up into the pools of liquidity that we were looking for
1163 01:36:37 --> 01:36:41 here, gy rated around, came back down into pool liquidity. Here relatively
1164 01:36:41 --> 01:36:46 cool lows. You see that trades lower, lower, rips, makes it higher, high, and
1165 01:36:46 --> 01:36:51 then we just consolidating around that, and then we had this shit messing up. I
1166 01:36:51 --> 01:36:56 thought that was a big drop when I had my draw depiction of a daily range. Did
1167 01:36:56 --> 01:36:59 you think that dropped on your on your chart? Did you quickly look where the
1168 01:36:59 --> 01:37:04 hell that come from? Thought you missed something too. I'm looking at a laptop
1169 01:37:04 --> 01:37:07 so I don't have all my other charts. And trying to be a little bit look how it's
1170 01:37:07 --> 01:37:10 just meandering around. That's what I'm saying. This earlier in the beginning of
1171 01:37:10 --> 01:37:14 the session, when we were trading up here, I said you would be done. If
1172 01:37:14 --> 01:37:18 you're a morning session trader, if you're a day trader, you'd be done. If
1173 01:37:18 --> 01:37:22 you're a position trader, a swing trader, you'd have 80% of your position
1174 01:37:22 --> 01:37:25 off, and then see if it wants to continue going into the afternoon
1175 01:37:25 --> 01:37:31 session. It may or may not, but at this point, if you haven't banked 80% of your
1176 01:37:31 --> 01:37:39 run, well that you know you're you're doing it wrong. Okay? Um,
1177 01:37:55 --> 01:38:05 and that's how you use i a pre market session when you're anticipating a large
1178 01:38:05 --> 01:38:11 range day. How do you anticipate a large range day? By looking at the last three
1179 01:38:11 --> 01:38:15 trading days, getting the average of the last three trading days, and if you are
1180 01:38:16 --> 01:38:21 closing today less than that average daily range, that means that you are in
1181 01:38:21 --> 01:38:25 a small range day that's mathematically defining something that is very simple.
1182 01:38:26 --> 01:38:31 Now it's extremely sensitive. So I don't mind that, because I have a little bit
1183 01:38:31 --> 01:38:35 better perception on where the market's going to go. And like bias, I know what
1184 01:38:35 --> 01:38:39 I'm looking for each day I'm trying to go in here and look for it. But if you
1185 01:38:39 --> 01:38:44 want to break it down to five days average daily range. And if you start
1186 01:38:44 --> 01:38:50 creating daily ranges that are less than the last five days, you are in close
1187 01:38:50 --> 01:38:55 proximity to a large range expansion day. And large range expansion days are
1188 01:38:55 --> 01:39:01 90% high resistance. I'm sorry. I'm sorry I said it wrong. 90% low
1189 01:39:01 --> 01:39:08 resistance. Liquidity run so a small range, or that is that it's not a big
1190 01:39:08 --> 01:39:12 explosive, large range day on the daily can stick. If it's not a large day, then
1191 01:39:12 --> 01:39:16 you're probably going to be met with high resistance. Liquidity runs, not all
1192 01:39:16 --> 01:39:23 the time, but 90% of the time. Large Range Days are low resistance. That
1193 01:39:23 --> 01:39:26 means there's very little give back. And you can see it here. It's just like, off
1194 01:39:26 --> 01:39:29 to the races. It goes. And it's just like, go, go, go, go, go. Another
1195 01:39:31 --> 01:39:34 characteristic, when you're trying to trade in low resistance liquidity runs,
1196 01:39:34 --> 01:39:41 don't be in such a rush to take partials off. Manage those days by your stop
1197 01:39:41 --> 01:39:46 loss, don't be in a hurry to just pay yourself, because you're going to be
1198 01:39:46 --> 01:39:49 like a deer in headlights. You're gonna be scared because it's gonna be running
1199 01:39:49 --> 01:39:53 in your favor so fast. It's scary if you've never made big money, if you've
1200 01:39:53 --> 01:39:56 never been on a trade which we're just ripping and taking off and moving
1201 01:39:56 --> 01:39:59 hundreds, not 10 handles, not 20 handles, not 30, not 50, hundreds.
1202 01:40:00 --> 01:40:06 Handles, and in very short time, it's going to be very intimidating for you.
1203 01:40:06 --> 01:40:09 So if you know that you're in low resistance liquidity, run days, move
1204 01:40:09 --> 01:40:12 your stop to a reasonable level where you can just take a break and walk away
1205 01:40:12 --> 01:40:17 from it. Have your limit orders in. If it hits your target, you're done. But
1206 01:40:17 --> 01:40:22 walk away from it. Go do something. Take a walk, go work out for 2030, minutes,
1207 01:40:22 --> 01:40:26 and then come back, and you'll be rewarded for having been in it a little
1208 01:40:26 --> 01:40:30 bit longer, and you won't be watching on a on, this case, a 15 second chart.
1209 01:40:30 --> 01:40:33 Every little fluctuation of minor movement, it's going to scare you out of
1210 01:40:33 --> 01:40:37 the trade. It's going to make you feel like you know every little possible
1211 01:40:37 --> 01:40:40 retracement is the top of the marketplace, and without having an idea
1212 01:40:40 --> 01:40:44 where the market's gravitating to by having that that reference point. So
1213 01:40:44 --> 01:40:50 there's liquidity. Remember, on the 15 minute time frame, that's these highs
1214 01:40:50 --> 01:41:03 here, that's smooth, right here, high, lower, high, lower, high. This is a
1215 01:41:03 --> 01:41:07 prime candidate for run on liquidity, and you've been trained to look for that
1216 01:41:07 --> 01:41:13 in price action and look how this quickly ran right to it. That's not
1217 01:41:13 --> 01:41:18 random, but that speed, that element of speed, is because of the day of the week
1218 01:41:18 --> 01:41:25 phenomenon. They don't have a whole lot of time. They only have today until 5pm
1219 01:41:25 --> 01:41:28 Eastern Time. Are they going to wait until the afternoon to get to there? No,
1220 01:41:28 --> 01:41:32 they want to be done. They don't want people to sit there and think, oh, maybe
1221 01:41:32 --> 01:41:34 I should square my position going in the weekend, because there might be
1222 01:41:34 --> 01:41:38 something that happens in the Middle East and I wake up to gap risk on
1223 01:41:38 --> 01:41:43 Sunday. They don't want that, so they intervene manually, and boom, you get
1224 01:41:43 --> 01:41:49 that doesn't this look like FOMC. Look how fast that ran, like that. That's not
1225 01:41:49 --> 01:41:57 algorithmic. That's intervention. That's what that is. Okay? So there's a lot of
1226 01:41:57 --> 01:42:00 things that you have to learn before you start going out there and trying to make
1227 01:42:00 --> 01:42:03 money. There's a lot of things you have to learn that's going to prevent you
1228 01:42:03 --> 01:42:08 from making said money. And as a teacher, as an educator that has real
1229 01:42:08 --> 01:42:13 world experience, I've made money and I've lost money, and I'm telling you,
1230 01:42:13 --> 01:42:20 losing money sucks. It sucks. And I have learned lessons that no other author, no
1231 01:42:20 --> 01:42:24 other teacher, educator and I bought 1000s and 1000s and 1000s of shit, and
1232 01:42:24 --> 01:42:29 none of them ever scratched the itch. They never gave me the things then the
1233 01:42:29 --> 01:42:34 tools and the mindset to say, Okay, I know how to buy into a bullish market.
1234 01:42:34 --> 01:42:37 You all know how to do that. You know how to shorten in a bearish market. You
1235 01:42:37 --> 01:42:41 know how to do that. But how do you manage your stop loss appropriately.
1236 01:42:42 --> 01:42:46 Nobody fucking writes books on that. Nobody knows how to do that. They just
1237 01:42:46 --> 01:42:49 say, okay, trail below the next swing high when you're bearish. I'm sorry,
1238 01:42:50 --> 01:42:56 scale your risk and reduce it by moving your stop loss to the lower swing high
1239 01:42:56 --> 01:43:00 when you're bearish, and keep trailing it down. If you do that in high
1240 01:43:00 --> 01:43:08 resistance liquidity runs, you're getting stopped out. If you relax and
1241 01:43:08 --> 01:43:13 don't do that in low resistance liquidity runs, you're not going to get
1242 01:43:13 --> 01:43:16 stopped out prematurely, because the market's going to be allowed to move
1243 01:43:16 --> 01:43:19 around a little bit, and it's less likely it's going to move to those
1244 01:43:19 --> 01:43:25 levels anyway. How many lows Did you see get retraced on in here? 15 minute time
1245 01:43:25 --> 01:43:32 frame, five minute time frame, one minute time frame, I mean, shit. It
1246 01:43:32 --> 01:43:37 stopped dead in its tracks. Of consequence, encroachment twice here and
1247 01:43:37 --> 01:43:43 here. It didn't take sell side. It's not interested in that. It's aiming for what
1248 01:43:44 --> 01:43:49 these suckers up here, they're pissed off right now. I wish I would have took
1249 01:43:49 --> 01:43:54 my profits on Wednesday. I wish I would have got out of my shorts on Wednesday.
1250 01:43:56 --> 01:44:02 Goldman sucks. Is like, what the hell this guy did it again, right? Anyway, I
1251 01:44:02 --> 01:44:07 would love, honestly, love to talk to you some more, but it's Friday, and now
1252 01:44:07 --> 01:44:10 my landscapers are here too. So they're, they're competing with me, and they're,
1253 01:44:10 --> 01:44:13 they're distracting me. And so you get closer and closer to my pool, they're
1254 01:44:14 --> 01:44:17 going to be louder, and that's going to be in my head as I do it. And I've
1255 01:44:17 --> 01:44:21 already given you much, much more than I intended to do today. So we're going
1256 01:44:21 --> 01:44:25 into the weekend. If you have not, if you're in the United States, if you have
1257 01:44:25 --> 01:44:32 not prepared to vote, go and vote this year. I've never voted before. I've
1258 01:44:32 --> 01:44:35 never voted before. I'm not going to tell you who to vote for, but you should
1259 01:44:35 --> 01:44:45 be voting this year. You should do it, if anything, just just participate in
1260 01:44:45 --> 01:44:48 it, regardless of who you're who you're voting for, I'm never going to tell you
1261 01:44:48 --> 01:44:54 who to vote for. I can tell you who I'm not voting for, and that would seem like
1262 01:44:54 --> 01:44:59 influencing you. So I'm not going to do that. But as we closer to this election.
1263 01:45:00 --> 01:45:06 We're probably going to see a lot of volatility. And if you've never studied
1264 01:45:06 --> 01:45:13 price action, on election night, that is a wild day in the evening time, it
1265 01:45:13 --> 01:45:18 creates this really wild spike up and down they clear the board. I think it's
1266 01:45:18 --> 01:45:23 going to be exaggerated this year, I think it's going to be an exaggeration,
1267 01:45:23 --> 01:45:29 not just simply on election day. I think it'll go like that for a few days. And
1268 01:45:29 --> 01:45:32 if they don't have the results, which, if you've been paying attention, they're
1269 01:45:32 --> 01:45:37 already building a narrative to expect that they won't know for weeks. And if
1270 01:45:37 --> 01:45:44 you remember back when gore and Bush presidency was done. It took weeks for
1271 01:45:44 --> 01:45:54 them to come out and finally say that it was given to him. So Bush was identified
1272 01:45:54 --> 01:45:58 as the winner of that time, and everybody was waiting on bated breath to
1273 01:45:58 --> 01:46:02 figure out who was the winner of the presidency, there's a whole lot to
1274 01:46:02 --> 01:46:08 expect in terms of tomfoolery, a lot of emotional response to who may or may not
1275 01:46:08 --> 01:46:13 be the winner. We may not know for a while, and that's going to cause a lot
1276 01:46:13 --> 01:46:17 of contention, a lot of stress, and it's going to cause a lot of perceptions
1277 01:46:17 --> 01:46:23 about risk to be skewed. So what does that mean? That means we're probably
1278 01:46:23 --> 01:46:28 going to see a lot of volatility. And my advice to you is what I told my private
1279 01:46:28 --> 01:46:34 mentorship students, gear down in your leverage. If anybody's telling you,
1280 01:46:34 --> 01:46:40 trade big right now. They're an absolute fucking moron. Okay, you don't know. I
1281 01:46:40 --> 01:46:45 don't know. Nobody fucking knows what this what we're going to see in a couple
1282 01:46:45 --> 01:46:50 weeks, but I know it's going to be a shit storm, and I know that that means
1283 01:46:50 --> 01:46:56 that risk is going to go through the roof. And instead of trading 15
1284 01:46:56 --> 01:47:08 contracts, 25 contracts, I'm trading one, just one, because I'm good. I'm
1285 01:47:08 --> 01:47:13 real fucking good, but I'm no good in a market where they're just going to go in
1286 01:47:13 --> 01:47:18 there and mop the floor with everybody, and I expect that. I expect them to do
1287 01:47:18 --> 01:47:24 that. Okay, so there is a perfect stage being presented over the next couple
1288 01:47:24 --> 01:47:27 weeks where the level of manual intervention is going to be
1289 01:47:27 --> 01:47:34 astronomical. I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong, and I hope smooth trading, if
1290 01:47:34 --> 01:47:38 there's lots of really good, low resistance wood run and less high
1291 01:47:38 --> 01:47:42 resistant liquidity run conditions, I want that. I do want that, but it would
1292 01:47:42 --> 01:47:48 be disingenuous of me as a quote, unquote educator and mentor with your
1293 01:47:48 --> 01:47:53 well being in my mind and aim for me not to remind you that you should dial back
1294 01:47:53 --> 01:47:54 your risk.
1295 01:47:56 --> 01:48:00 What happens? Okay? What happens if you make a lot of money and you're over
1296 01:48:00 --> 01:48:03 leveraged? You're not going to stop there. You're going to take another
1297 01:48:03 --> 01:48:07 trade, do the same thing, and you may not get the same results, and it may be
1298 01:48:07 --> 01:48:13 worse, and it may end you. You may may not be able to to to refund or purchase
1299 01:48:13 --> 01:48:16 new accounts. You may not be able to do that, or you get scared because you've
1300 01:48:16 --> 01:48:23 done that. Contrast that with listening to the old man, okay, if you just take
1301 01:48:23 --> 01:48:29 one contract or trade in micros, this is not a once in a lifetime opportunity.
1302 01:48:29 --> 01:48:32 It's going to seem like that. Everybody's going to sell it like that,
1303 01:48:32 --> 01:48:35 because they're gambling. When everybody's flying to the Las Vegas and
1304 01:48:35 --> 01:48:39 they're thinking, I'm going to take this couple $1,000 and it's a once in
1305 01:48:39 --> 01:48:42 lifetime chance. I feel like I'm lucky this time. I'm going to I'm going to
1306 01:48:42 --> 01:48:46 make $100,000 I'm going to pick the right slot machine. I'm going to play
1307 01:48:46 --> 01:48:49 black jock and Black Diamond, and there it is. The robot's going to bless me.
1308 01:48:49 --> 01:48:53 I'm going to go home with six figures like, I just know it, and you're driving
1309 01:48:53 --> 01:48:56 home or flying home, busted, disgusted and just pissed off. You never even went
1310 01:48:58 --> 01:49:03 there. It's easy to sell your ideas to yourself and think, What if it does this
1311 01:49:03 --> 01:49:07 in my favor? I'm just trying to be a voice of reason, and you can hate me for
1312 01:49:07 --> 01:49:11 it. I don't care. Laugh at me if it's easy trading. I don't care. You don't
1313 01:49:11 --> 01:49:16 know it's going to be like that. So risking with big leverage over the next
1314 01:49:16 --> 01:49:20 couple weeks, I honestly until the end of the year, if you're trading, you
1315 01:49:20 --> 01:49:26 know, elevated leverage. You're a gambler, and I don't give a who you are,
1316 01:49:26 --> 01:49:29 where you came from, how much money you made, how long you've been doing it. If
1317 01:49:29 --> 01:49:32 you're pushing leverage in this environment, you're an absolute
1318 01:49:32 --> 01:49:36 definition of a fucking loser gambler, and if you make money, I'm not impressed
1319 01:49:36 --> 01:49:40 by that. I am not impressed by that. There's a lot of people that win the
1320 01:49:40 --> 01:49:44 lottery. They had no skill. There's a lot of people that went to that casino,
1321 01:49:45 --> 01:49:48 and there was no skill in them doing that. Now, poker, I'll admit that that
1322 01:49:48 --> 01:49:52 takes a little bit of skill, but pulling a fucking slot machine down, there's no
1323 01:49:52 --> 01:49:56 skill, none pushing a button and waiting for things to spin around. There's no
1324 01:49:56 --> 01:50:00 skill in that. But everybody that comes into the market. Place and they think
1325 01:50:00 --> 01:50:04 they're just going to over leverage and get these big, big moves and not have
1326 01:50:04 --> 01:50:09 any hardship coming up in the next couple of weeks. Just listen to me,
1327 01:50:09 --> 01:50:16 okay, your career is not encapsulated in the next couple weeks, but you can end
1328 01:50:16 --> 01:50:20 it in the next couple weeks. I'm not saying you'll never make more money to
1329 01:50:20 --> 01:50:24 put into another account or afford to pay for funding accounts, but you're
1330 01:50:24 --> 01:50:29 going to end the visibility of what you believe in yourself by wrecking
1331 01:50:29 --> 01:50:34 yourself, the lasting impressions of damage that's caused by over leveraging
1332 01:50:34 --> 01:50:37 and conditions that we're about to experience. You can't you can't fully
1333 01:50:37 --> 01:50:42 appreciate that. I have lots of that stuff from the 90s in me still, and you
1334 01:50:42 --> 01:50:45 don't have the 30 years experience that I have. So how do you think it's going
1335 01:50:45 --> 01:50:49 to affect you as a new trader, or a relatively new trader, it's going to be
1336 01:50:49 --> 01:50:53 much more impactful adversely. It's not going to help you. It's going to make it
1337 01:50:53 --> 01:50:57 harder for you to execute. You're going to be now thinking about fear, when fear
1338 01:50:57 --> 01:51:01 shouldn't be any factor in your trading. Respect the risk, but not fear it. So
1339 01:51:01 --> 01:51:06 have yourself a very pleasant weekend. Be safe and Lord willing, I'll be back
1340 01:51:06 --> 01:51:09 again on Monday. If you found this insightful, if you if you learn
1341 01:51:09 --> 01:51:12 something from this, give the live stream a thumbs up. I promise it doesn't
1342 01:51:12 --> 01:51:15 make me any more money. Just lets me know that you, you receive something
1343 01:51:15 --> 01:51:18 that helped you, and that's all it really means to me. If or not, it
1344 01:51:18 --> 01:51:22 doesn't matter, I'm still going to make more videos until I'll talk to you, then
1345 01:51:22 --> 01:51:23 be safe. You.