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ICT YT - 2024-10-18 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Oct 17 Market Review

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2024-10-21 09:33
1 00:02:39 --> 00:02:44 ICT: Well, good evening, folks, Hope doing well. So I was gonna record a
2 00:02:44 --> 00:02:52 video and then post it on YouTube channel, but I got to thinking how it
3 00:02:52 --> 00:02:56 just takes so much time to either edit the things that I end up saying that I
4 00:02:57 --> 00:03:03 don't want in the video, or it's the weight for the YouTube servers to
5 00:03:03 --> 00:03:08 compile it and compress it into a format that allows you to click and watch it.
6 00:03:09 --> 00:03:14 So I'm electing to do it on a live stream, because it's easy. It's one and
7 00:03:14 --> 00:03:20 done. So it's rough and raw, first cut, and whatever it is, it's spoken, if it's
8 00:03:20 --> 00:03:24 a mistake. If I said something incorrectly, or whatever, if I cough, my
9 00:03:24 --> 00:03:28 dogs do something in the background, that type of stuff. And that's what I
10 00:03:28 --> 00:03:31 was doing. I was wrangling Bailey, because she likes to walk around. Soon
11 00:03:31 --> 00:03:38 they'll start talking. So I introduced a new PD array today, and I talked about
12 00:03:38 --> 00:03:50 the live stream commentary. The very early portion of the morning session,
13 00:03:50 --> 00:03:55 when we're trying to work out a narrative on what the daily candlestick
14 00:03:55 --> 00:04:02 might do, what the morning session might present. And while I have an underlying
15 00:04:02 --> 00:04:10 bias that's bullish, I mentioned, let me, let me start this off real quick,
16 00:04:10 --> 00:04:18 because otherwise I won't be satisfied. If you've been a student of mine and
17 00:04:18 --> 00:04:23 you've been at least following since last year on Twitter, or they call it x.
18 00:04:23 --> 00:04:30 Now I was doing Twitter spaces, and I was introducing things conceptually in
19 00:04:30 --> 00:04:35 audio format, not like in a chart, but just talking about it. And one of the
20 00:04:35 --> 00:04:43 things I mentioned is how the first mention of a PD array for the daily
21 00:04:43 --> 00:04:50 session, like if you look at the first percent of fair value gap, and if you
22 00:04:50 --> 00:04:54 look at the first presented fair value gap of the week on Monday, I told you
23 00:04:54 --> 00:05:00 last year in 2023 to take that and extend it throughout. The entirety of
24 00:05:00 --> 00:05:08 the week, all the way through till Friday. And when I when I teach things
25 00:05:08 --> 00:05:14 like that, admittedly, I get off on the idea that I'm tucking it inside of a
26 00:05:14 --> 00:05:18 very long winded discussion, and I usually just throw it out there when
27 00:05:18 --> 00:05:21 you're not expecting it, because if you're eating Bon Bons and potato chips
28 00:05:21 --> 00:05:24 and watching the football game about football game or basketball or you're
29 00:05:24 --> 00:05:29 listening to me, you're going to miss it, and you deserve to miss it, because
30 00:05:29 --> 00:05:32 if you're if I don't have your attention, if you're not really trying
31 00:05:32 --> 00:05:38 to to learn it, and also take all the the information I have about the
32 00:05:38 --> 00:05:42 conversation, because it's germane, you may not think it's germane at the time,
33 00:05:43 --> 00:05:48 but it is Germaine that means everything I'm talking about has its relationship
34 00:05:48 --> 00:05:58 to the topic at hand, and each modular introduction that I present one of the
35 00:05:58 --> 00:06:06 hard line critics that are constantly sending me emails saying, This is what I
36 00:06:06 --> 00:06:11 don't like about you. This is what I don't like about you. It's the slow drip
37 00:06:11 --> 00:06:16 of the content. And the number one reason is because everyone takes my
38 00:06:16 --> 00:06:20 stuff and they plagiarize it and they teach it without knowing how to do it,
39 00:06:21 --> 00:06:26 and then, because people are paying them to learn how to do things they didn't
40 00:06:26 --> 00:06:31 create or author or not to use themselves, their students run away
41 00:06:31 --> 00:06:35 thinking that these concepts don't work when they later find out It's mine. So
42 00:06:38 --> 00:06:46 because I'm working on very specific texts for books. Again, like I said,
43 00:06:46 --> 00:06:49 it's not meant for me to make a lot of money on these books. It's for me to
44 00:06:49 --> 00:06:55 just simply place them in book format, in the way that I intended them to be
45 00:06:55 --> 00:07:00 received. So everyone that does their own little spin on what they think they
46 00:07:00 --> 00:07:06 understand about the things I teach. They are not equipped to teach. They're
47 00:07:06 --> 00:07:12 absolutely not and it sounds like I'm being selfish or I'm afraid someone else
48 00:07:12 --> 00:07:16 is going to get the limelight. You don't deserve this Limelight because you don't
49 00:07:16 --> 00:07:20 know anything about what it is I'm teaching. And there's a lot of things
50 00:07:20 --> 00:07:26 that I hold back, because they will, it will be in a book. Now, everything I
51 00:07:26 --> 00:07:32 know will be in a book, obviously, but when, when the market presents itself in
52 00:07:32 --> 00:07:40 a way where I can ring in something new, I don't mind doing that. And I taught in
53 00:07:41 --> 00:07:46 recent months, and I think mostly this year, in 2024 I started teaching my
54 00:07:46 --> 00:07:51 students the idea of using the wicks above a below a candlestick and to treat
55 00:07:51 --> 00:07:59 them like a gap, like an imbalance or inefficiency, and having that midpoint,
56 00:07:59 --> 00:08:04 which we label as consequence, encouragement is useful in a lot of
57 00:08:04 --> 00:08:10 ways, and I use it many times as a targeting I use it as a stock placement
58 00:08:10 --> 00:08:16 or management tool, and as you saw today, and in other instances where I've
59 00:08:16 --> 00:08:28 used it as a trade entry so I the the idea of folks when I when I'm honest,
60 00:08:28 --> 00:08:34 and I tell you something, and I divulge things that you are not entitled to know
61 00:08:34 --> 00:08:40 about me, I get backlash from people saying, There's no way You have 81 ways
62 00:08:40 --> 00:08:47 to get into a trade. And it's not limited to 81 it's actually twice that,
63 00:08:47 --> 00:08:53 because everything has an inversion aspect to it. So if we have a fair value
64 00:08:53 --> 00:08:57 gap that would be deemed a quote unquote bullish fair value gap, if it trades
65 00:08:57 --> 00:09:02 below it and the market has changed its underlying dynamic is no longer bullish,
66 00:09:03 --> 00:09:07 then I'm going to use that fair value gap. If it affords me every trades back
67 00:09:07 --> 00:09:13 to it, I'll go short in that or if I'm already short, I'll use it to manage my
68 00:09:13 --> 00:09:18 stop loss, because I expect it to stay in the lower half of that fair value
69 00:09:18 --> 00:09:22 gap. If it's a failed bullish or it later gives up the ghost and goes below
70 00:09:22 --> 00:09:26 it. It no longer is going to act as a bullish fair Vega. It will become an
71 00:09:26 --> 00:09:33 inversion fair Vega. So there's a lot of conceptual ideas that I have slowly
72 00:09:33 --> 00:09:38 leaked out. And it's, it's simply because I'm guarding it, because if you
73 00:09:38 --> 00:09:44 just go, just do a search on Amazon, okay, and you'll see ICT concepts. ICT
74 00:09:44 --> 00:09:49 Smart Money concepts. There's dozens and dozens and dozens of books written by UN
75 00:09:49 --> 00:09:56 informed, uneducated, ill equipped and frankly, it's obscene to see anyone out
76 00:09:56 --> 00:10:00 there trying to put my logo on their books. You know, you don't. You. You
77 00:10:00 --> 00:10:04 don't have the right to do that. And there's so many of you that have
78 00:10:04 --> 00:10:09 actually taken my mentorship videos from 2016 and 2017 and just simply, just took
79 00:10:09 --> 00:10:13 the pictures, read out the slides, and put them in your book. And you know, I
80 00:10:13 --> 00:10:16 have lawyers working on that, and all those things that you've collected. If
81 00:10:16 --> 00:10:20 you made any royalties off of that, I'm coming after that, because you that's
82 00:10:20 --> 00:10:26 copyright infringement, so you don't have permission to do those things. And
83 00:10:26 --> 00:10:33 when I slowly drip this content out, what this does is it guards the content
84 00:10:34 --> 00:10:38 for me to be able to reveal in its entirety, but I also have a timeline
85 00:10:38 --> 00:10:41 where I'm actually introducing it and I'm using it in real market activity
86 00:10:42 --> 00:10:47 over live price action, calling attention to it over real live data in
87 00:10:47 --> 00:10:52 front of witnesses of 10s of 1000s people watching the live streams when
88 00:10:52 --> 00:10:57 I'm doing them. So with all that preamble out of the way, the idea of
89 00:10:58 --> 00:11:06 using a candlesticks wick in the midpoint of that as a mechanism to
90 00:11:07 --> 00:11:15 facilitate a trade, to use it to manage a trade stop loss, or to target it for a
91 00:11:15 --> 00:11:20 profit or a partial. It may be a terminus on my trade. It may be a
92 00:11:20 --> 00:11:24 partial that I want to see it trade to, and I'm expecting to go beyond that.
93 00:11:26 --> 00:11:30 It's limited only to your understanding about the present market condition, the
94 00:11:30 --> 00:11:35 market structure that's being delivered right at that moment, and what it's
95 00:11:35 --> 00:11:40 likely drawing to. So it's a lot of different parameters that it's going to
96 00:11:40 --> 00:11:46 rely heavily on what you're trying to trade. That would be a point right
97 00:11:46 --> 00:11:49 there. I would edit the video. And I had a lot of those things because it's
98 00:11:49 --> 00:11:54 seasonalities, and this part I'm talking to you right now. I many times talk like
99 00:11:54 --> 00:11:59 this in the recordings, but end up cutting them out. So it's live. It's a
100 00:11:59 --> 00:12:03 rough cut, right? So I want you to think about what I mentioned now my students.
101 00:12:03 --> 00:12:08 I told them my prime mentorship students. I divulge the name of the PD
102 00:12:08 --> 00:12:13 array that I drew your attention to today in live price action on the women
103 00:12:13 --> 00:12:14 in charge for NASDAQ,
104 00:12:15 --> 00:12:20 and I dubbed it The Gallo. Okay? And some of you may not want to. May not
105 00:12:20 --> 00:12:23 know what a Gallo is, but I'll show you what that is, and I'll show you why the
106 00:12:23 --> 00:12:32 conceptual idea was named that. And because it is a PD array of mine, it can
107 00:12:32 --> 00:12:36 be used one time and then later on, when it comes back to that same price point.
108 00:12:37 --> 00:12:41 I can then use it either as an inversion level, or I can use it as a reclaimed
109 00:12:41 --> 00:12:46 level, meaning that it's an original characteristic, okay, and for those that
110 00:12:46 --> 00:12:49 are actually trying to learn, this is where you write down this stuff, okay,
111 00:12:50 --> 00:12:53 let's assume for a moment you're bearish, and you're expecting the market
112 00:12:53 --> 00:12:57 to go lower, and it creates a fair value gap. Your expectation would be the
113 00:12:57 --> 00:13:02 market would likely draw back up into that fair value gap, book price inside
114 00:13:02 --> 00:13:07 of it, and then displace and move lower. That's a reasonable expectation for a
115 00:13:07 --> 00:13:13 bearish fair value gap. If that fair value gap is violated and it trades
116 00:13:13 --> 00:13:17 above it, and the market dynamics have changed, not just simply because it
117 00:13:17 --> 00:13:21 traded above it, that's not enough. Something else has to take place in the
118 00:13:21 --> 00:13:25 underlying market structure, and there has to be something that is indicating
119 00:13:25 --> 00:13:30 that we have absolutely changed direction. And then you can use that
120 00:13:30 --> 00:13:34 bearish fair value gap as an inversion, fair value gap, where it now becomes a
121 00:13:34 --> 00:13:39 bullish PDA right, or a discount PDA rate, because price would be above it at
122 00:13:39 --> 00:13:47 that time. Well, every week's constant encroachment and where it lays in the
123 00:13:48 --> 00:13:53 the land of price action. You know, I refer to getting the lay of the land.
124 00:13:53 --> 00:13:57 Where are my PD arrays? Where is it likely to draw to? Where is it likely
125 00:13:57 --> 00:14:01 not to go to? And this is all part of fleshing out a narrative. Okay, so I'm
126 00:14:01 --> 00:14:05 going to kind of like confess as the composite man here for a little while in
127 00:14:05 --> 00:14:10 this presentation, because I'm going to teach you what I was doing this morning,
128 00:14:10 --> 00:14:14 because I gave several scenarios, and as I mentioned, in the live stream, if you
129 00:14:14 --> 00:14:20 haven't watched this morning's live stream, if I'm not careful, this video
130 00:14:20 --> 00:14:25 could be, potentially be longer than the live streams, and it's not my goal here,
131 00:14:25 --> 00:14:30 but I want to, kind of like talk to you a little bit about how there are certain
132 00:14:30 --> 00:14:38 aspects of learning, how to trade, how to read, price, do your own analysis and
133 00:14:38 --> 00:14:42 come to your own conclusion where you're an independent thinker, because an
134 00:14:42 --> 00:14:48 independent thought is as an acquired skill set. There isn't a book out there
135 00:14:48 --> 00:14:51 that's going to just make it easy for you. I can't write a book that does
136 00:14:51 --> 00:14:57 that. I can't make a course. I can't make a video lecture series. I can't do
137 00:14:57 --> 00:15:03 it in one video where you hear. Me say one thing, or, you know, an hour long
138 00:15:03 --> 00:15:09 presentation, or even a Twitter space for four hours, and do it any justice in
139 00:15:09 --> 00:15:14 terms of what it takes to build out and flesh out a narrative. And a narrative
140 00:15:14 --> 00:15:21 is how the daily bias will be implemented. It's not the direction,
141 00:15:21 --> 00:15:27 it's how the market will book price and enable and facilitate the delivery of
142 00:15:27 --> 00:15:32 price and accomplish the things that you would expect to see if it's bullish or
143 00:15:32 --> 00:15:36 bearish. So it's not the same thing. Bias and narrative are two, totally two
144 00:15:36 --> 00:15:43 different distinct things, and narrative is a very complex topic, and that's what
145 00:15:43 --> 00:15:46 makes number one. That's the first thing. When people hear me talk about
146 00:15:46 --> 00:15:50 this aspect of it, they want to run away from it. They say, Oh, this is going to
147 00:15:50 --> 00:15:55 require me thinking. And the Tiktok mentality crowd, you know, the
148 00:15:55 --> 00:15:58 millennial mindset. They don't want they don't want to learn how to do it. They
149 00:15:58 --> 00:16:02 want to have a easy push a button, populate something on your chart or
150 00:16:02 --> 00:16:07 overlay or indicator, and let all the critical thinking be done by that. And
151 00:16:07 --> 00:16:12 unfortunately, you know, to get to the delivery of precision that I'm
152 00:16:12 --> 00:16:16 introducing to you and proving. How many, how many times have you seen all
153 00:16:16 --> 00:16:20 these things every single day I'm coming out here and telling I'm showing you.
154 00:16:21 --> 00:16:24 Let me rephrase that, every single day that I'm live streaming, I'm pointing
155 00:16:24 --> 00:16:28 out the things in the in the marketplace that are going to be sealing it for that
156 00:16:28 --> 00:16:33 day's daily range and how that session is going to deliver in book price. And
157 00:16:33 --> 00:16:41 it's undeniable. Okay, so in the last few live streams, I've introduced some
158 00:16:41 --> 00:16:45 things that are kind of complex and advanced, and even my private mentorship
159 00:16:45 --> 00:16:49 students have been introduced to it at the same time you have been and one of
160 00:16:49 --> 00:16:58 those are what we refer to today as that wick above two relative equal highs,
161 00:16:58 --> 00:17:02 okay? And I want to kind of like go right into the chart, kind of talk about
162 00:17:02 --> 00:17:05 that now and then I'll flesh out why the market did what it did. Okay, and then
163 00:17:05 --> 00:17:14 we'll close it up and be done. So if you look at the E Mini S, I'm sorry, E Mini
164 00:17:14 --> 00:17:18 NASDAQ, I'm reaching for the Control M, that's what I use when I'm doing
165 00:17:18 --> 00:17:23 Camtasia. I use that to record my my videos. Well, I'm not using that now.
166 00:17:23 --> 00:17:27 I'm using OBS, right? But whenever I make it an edit error where I have to go
167 00:17:27 --> 00:17:32 in and change it, my natural tendency is to go and touch the control and tap the
168 00:17:32 --> 00:17:35 M, and that puts a little flag in the timeline, so that way I know when I look
169 00:17:35 --> 00:17:40 at the the rough recording, that's where I got to go in and edit. And I'm doing
170 00:17:40 --> 00:17:46 that a lot, as I'm talking to you right now, but I have it so and because I'm
171 00:17:46 --> 00:17:50 not using Camtasia, it's causing me to lose my train of thought. So it's it's
172 00:17:51 --> 00:17:56 one of the reasons why I don't like doing live streams, because I'm so used
173 00:17:56 --> 00:18:01 to doing things pre recorded, and I like editing, keeping it clean, and I don't
174 00:18:01 --> 00:18:06 have the ability to stay focused long enough to do that while I'm liking
175 00:18:06 --> 00:18:09 because there's so many ideas, if I can get in the front of line like right now,
176 00:18:09 --> 00:18:14 you're all cussing me, saying, Get to the point. So we're looking at a regular
177 00:18:14 --> 00:18:19 trading hours chart on the one minute time frame. Okay, the chart's naked,
178 00:18:19 --> 00:18:22 except for my little lipstick here, because I have to put that there,
179 00:18:22 --> 00:18:25 because there's there's jerks on the internet that pretend to be me on other
180 00:18:25 --> 00:18:30 social media platforms, and they post my content like they did it. They didn't do
181 00:18:30 --> 00:18:33 that. So unfortunately, I have to populate my charts with that kind of
182 00:18:33 --> 00:18:38 stuff. And I wish I didn't have to, but it is what it is. So we're looking at
183 00:18:38 --> 00:18:44 the regular trading hours chart, one minute time frame. Okay? And what this
184 00:18:44 --> 00:18:49 does? It allows us to see the difference between where the market settled
185 00:18:50 --> 00:18:59 previous day at 4:14pm, Eastern Time. Always, always, your chart has to be set
186 00:18:59 --> 00:19:03 on trading view at New York time. Okay, if you're not doing this, none of this
187 00:19:03 --> 00:19:12 stuff's going to make any sense. So that settlement price at 414 Eastern time. We
188 00:19:12 --> 00:19:20 note that now at 414 on my notepad, what I'm writing down is that price at
189 00:19:20 --> 00:19:25 settlement. And then I write down regular trading hours, closing
190 00:19:25 --> 00:19:31 settlement price. And then I write that price, whatever the whatever the last
191 00:19:31 --> 00:19:39 print was at 414 that's the price I have on my notepad. And then I wait, just
192 00:19:39 --> 00:19:44 like you are waiting until the 9/31 print. That first print at 930 is right
193 00:19:44 --> 00:19:49 up here. So if you look at the opening price right here, look right above where
194 00:19:49 --> 00:19:58 my cursor is. That opening price is 20,573.25 so because it's an opening
195 00:19:58 --> 00:20:05 higher gap. Yeah, that is a premium gap. So in my notepad, as soon as I see the
196 00:20:05 --> 00:20:15 first print, I'm writing down premium gap high in that price. So the this down
197 00:20:15 --> 00:20:22 here, that settlement price is now becoming what the opening range gap low.
198 00:20:22 --> 00:20:26 It still will always be a constant. Yesterday's settlement price at River
199 00:20:26 --> 00:20:32 trading hours close, but it's taking on a new characteristic, because it's now
200 00:20:32 --> 00:20:36 the low of the opening range gap, which is the difference between this
201 00:20:36 --> 00:20:43 candlesticks opening price and this candlesticks closing price. Now you may
202 00:20:43 --> 00:20:47 be cussing at me that I saw a few comments where people are watching my
203 00:20:47 --> 00:20:53 video from this morning and the other ones I did last week, and I'll say
204 00:20:53 --> 00:20:56 you're too zoomed out and I can't see the candlestick well. Whenever I'm
205 00:20:56 --> 00:20:59 moving around, I'm highlighting a source of a candlestick. Look at the bottom of
206 00:20:59 --> 00:21:05 the chart. It's telling you the time and the date. I'm encouraging you to do all
207 00:21:05 --> 00:21:08 these things in your own chart, not to simply use mine, because that's a lazy
208 00:21:08 --> 00:21:12 approach, and you won't be able to do this if you're just relying on my
209 00:21:12 --> 00:21:16 charts. So if I'm doing all the late work for you, you're really not learning
210 00:21:16 --> 00:21:20 how to do this independently. Are you? You're becoming codependent, and that's
211 00:21:20 --> 00:21:25 why I don't do signals. That's why I don't hand hold a lot. It's a little bit
212 00:21:25 --> 00:21:30 rough, and, you know, it requires a whole lot more effort with me as a
213 00:21:30 --> 00:21:34 teacher, and that's okay. If that doesn't make me a good mentor, it just
214 00:21:34 --> 00:21:40 makes me the right mentor. So the difference is this, we see price through
215 00:21:40 --> 00:21:51 this perspective, this is the opening range gap, okay? And what I'm doing is
216 00:21:51 --> 00:21:56 I'm expecting, initially, that first 30 minutes, that there's going to be a
217 00:21:56 --> 00:22:02 bearish bias initially, soon as we get in the gap opening higher. And remember,
218 00:22:02 --> 00:22:07 I like 75 handles or more. So this obviously fits that criteria where,
219 00:22:07 --> 00:22:11 certainly more than 75 handles difference between this previous
220 00:22:11 --> 00:22:12 settlement price
221 00:22:13 --> 00:22:19 and where we opened. I like 75 handles or more because it will absolutely give
222 00:22:19 --> 00:22:30 me, but what's half of 75 a good 30 handle run, a good 35 handle run. You
223 00:22:30 --> 00:22:34 can, you can see how that is a very handsome approach just by getting half
224 00:22:34 --> 00:22:42 of that move. It doesn't afford, you know? What does it actually afford you
225 00:22:42 --> 00:22:48 now. It affords you the luxuries of not having to have precision, which is why I
226 00:22:48 --> 00:22:53 give you that rule of having 75 handles or more, if you only get half of that
227 00:22:53 --> 00:22:59 run back to middle, which is this level right here, essentially 70% of the time,
228 00:22:59 --> 00:23:05 okay, in the first 30 minutes, a gap higher opening is going to see half that
229 00:23:05 --> 00:23:12 gap filled. Now the school of thought is, gaps always get filled. They don't.
230 00:23:13 --> 00:23:17 They don't always get filled, but there's a large degree of probability
231 00:23:17 --> 00:23:23 that half of the gap will be priced to and once that price is delivered, then
232 00:23:23 --> 00:23:27 you have to measure the willingness to see if it's going to continue and go to
233 00:23:27 --> 00:23:31 a full gap closure. Full gap closure would be coming all the way back down to
234 00:23:31 --> 00:23:37 previous settlement price at 414, eastern time yesterday, on Wednesday. If
235 00:23:37 --> 00:23:41 you listen to what I said in the live stream again, go back and watch it and
236 00:23:41 --> 00:23:45 listen, write down the very things I'm saying, because I'm giving you several
237 00:23:45 --> 00:23:50 different narratives that may be implemented before 930 was there because
238 00:23:50 --> 00:23:53 I closed the stream a couple minutes after nine o'clock, so I wasn't with you
239 00:23:53 --> 00:24:00 at 930 but I gave you how I would internalize price Based on what price
240 00:24:00 --> 00:24:05 would do in those individual instances. So as I mentioned in the live stream,
241 00:24:05 --> 00:24:09 for someone that's brand new, or if you're just looking to come here and
242 00:24:09 --> 00:24:14 find some material to go troll, you're welcome to do that, okay, but you look
243 00:24:14 --> 00:24:18 like an idiot, because I'm literally doing this every single day, and it's
244 00:24:18 --> 00:24:24 panning out. What someone may do is, if they're first time Watchers or viewers,
245 00:24:24 --> 00:24:28 they may hear me say, well, it could do this, it could do that. And it sounds
246 00:24:28 --> 00:24:31 like, well, it's he's not really calling anything. He's just throwing a lot of
247 00:24:31 --> 00:24:34 things at the wall and whatever sticks. He's going to come back and say, look
248 00:24:34 --> 00:24:39 how smart I am. That's exactly what the neophyte mindset would think. But go
249 00:24:39 --> 00:24:44 back and listen, there's very, very specific things I'm saying. If price
250 00:24:44 --> 00:24:50 stays below a specific price, I'll explain why I said 600 level. Today, I'm
251 00:24:50 --> 00:24:54 going to go all over all that stuff, but I want to at least give me, afford me
252 00:24:54 --> 00:24:58 the the ability to lay down some tent posts. Okay, because I don't want to
253 00:24:58 --> 00:25:03 breeze through this. Because these are the type of discussions that it really
254 00:25:03 --> 00:25:10 solidifies. You know why you should even watch anything from me? Because if, if
255 00:25:10 --> 00:25:15 you're not here to try to learn, or if you're here to try to debunk me, and
256 00:25:15 --> 00:25:17 that's really what I'm doing all the time, I'm inviting you to try to do
257 00:25:17 --> 00:25:21 that. Because if you go in and you start looking for these things, like when I
258 00:25:21 --> 00:25:24 told you that it's 70% of the time you're going to see half that gap
259 00:25:24 --> 00:25:28 filled, people immediately went out there and started running numbers with a
260 00:25:28 --> 00:25:32 little bit of data, and said, This guy's full of crap. It's it's wrong. It
261 00:25:32 --> 00:25:37 doesn't even do that. I have 40 years of data backing it. And how many times have
262 00:25:37 --> 00:25:41 you seen it happen since I taught it to you? It's a lot, isn't it? So in fact,
263 00:25:41 --> 00:25:46 if you looked at how long and how many times it's actually fulfilled, it would
264 00:25:46 --> 00:25:51 be higher than 70% since I started talking about it. So if you're if you're
265 00:25:51 --> 00:25:56 taking a little bit of data and you're implementing it just on that small
266 00:25:56 --> 00:26:00 little segment of sample data, you're going to have a skewed perspective
267 00:26:00 --> 00:26:07 versus mine, which is over 40 years of data. So remember, I've been doing this
268 00:26:07 --> 00:26:11 for 32 years, so I wanted to go back and look at old data too, and the only thing
269 00:26:11 --> 00:26:16 I can get my hands on was data that could trust prior to that. You know,
270 00:26:17 --> 00:26:27 given 40 years, I uh, listening to what I mentioned this morning, I said that
271 00:26:28 --> 00:26:32 I'm primarily bullish. I'm not trying to pick the top in the marketplace, because
272 00:26:32 --> 00:26:36 they may still take this thing higher, and I don't want to fight that. But I
273 00:26:36 --> 00:26:45 stated that if the market opens up close to 600 but below it, then we're going to
274 00:26:45 --> 00:26:52 run back down below, right from the jump, and go down to mid gap and as much
275 00:26:52 --> 00:26:56 as three quarters gap, and I guess in the base basically, the best case
276 00:26:56 --> 00:26:59 scenario would be a full gap closure. But I don't like to see a full got
277 00:26:59 --> 00:27:04 closure. Why would I want to not see a full gap closure if we're gapping up
278 00:27:04 --> 00:27:09 like this? Why? Why would I want to not see it fully close in that gap? Because
279 00:27:09 --> 00:27:15 my primary higher Time Frame bias is what bullish so if it can fail to close
280 00:27:15 --> 00:27:19 that gap, that it's created here, that would be what indicative of underlying
281 00:27:19 --> 00:27:23 strength. Otherwise, why would it just simply go down there and close the gap
282 00:27:23 --> 00:27:27 in entirely and then it becomes 50, 5050, at that time, whether it's going
283 00:27:27 --> 00:27:31 to continue going lower or if it's going to start going higher from that point,
284 00:27:31 --> 00:27:39 that price point. So by grading that gap, by having the upper quadrant the
285 00:27:39 --> 00:27:45 midpoint, consequent encroachment and or the lower quadrant, it gives you a way
286 00:27:45 --> 00:27:52 of framing trade ideas and also measuring the willingness for price to
287 00:27:52 --> 00:27:58 either fail to drop going lower and then resume going higher, or allows you to
288 00:27:58 --> 00:28:02 trust it is going to most likely reach for another lower objective would be
289 00:28:02 --> 00:28:06 lower than the the halfway point, consequence of the gap, the lower
290 00:28:06 --> 00:28:14 quadrant, right? So what I want to do is I want to take you into the chart with
291 00:28:14 --> 00:28:19 this perspective. I'm going to assume in taking great deal of liberty knowing
292 00:28:20 --> 00:28:24 that I've said these things in live stream in front of everyone live. So
293 00:28:24 --> 00:28:27 you're welcome to go back and listen to what I said. So if you're just watching
294 00:28:27 --> 00:28:31 this and you didn't watch that, this is a is like, this is nothing live, that's
295 00:28:31 --> 00:28:37 going to cause you to take a trade right now. So if you didn't watch the live
296 00:28:37 --> 00:28:40 stream, this is your perfect opportunity to stop this live stream. Don't even
297 00:28:40 --> 00:28:45 watch the rest of this. Stop it and then go watch this morning's live stream and
298 00:28:45 --> 00:28:48 listen, write down the things I'm talking about. Otherwise you're not
299 00:28:48 --> 00:28:51 going to appreciate what I'm going to cover here. It's going to feel like, you
300 00:28:51 --> 00:28:56 know, cherry picking, and it's not cherry picking. But let's take a look at
301 00:28:56 --> 00:29:09 it through the lens of I uh, having all the lipstick on here. Okay, last year, I
302 00:29:09 --> 00:29:15 mentioned in Twitter spaces that if you take the first fair value gap on Monday
303 00:29:15 --> 00:29:19 and you extend it throughout the entirety of the week, you're going to
304 00:29:19 --> 00:29:23 find some information that would escape you if you just trusted everything else
305 00:29:23 --> 00:29:28 that's taught and regurgitated. I don't trade support and resistance. I don't
306 00:29:28 --> 00:29:32 use supply and demand. I don't use Elliott Wave. I don't use white golf. I
307 00:29:32 --> 00:29:37 don't use hearse cycles. I don't do harmonic patterns. I don't do any of
308 00:29:37 --> 00:29:43 that stuff. Okay? And tonight's lesson is going to show you just how far light
309 00:29:43 --> 00:29:48 year light years ahead I am. I'm so far ahead of everyone else, and my students
310 00:29:48 --> 00:29:52 are learning to do the same thing as well, and they're going to be able to do
311 00:29:52 --> 00:29:56 this independently, which is the most important thing. If I come out here and
312 00:29:56 --> 00:30:01 I just do live streams and I demonstrate my prowess, we. My tricks with my wares
313 00:30:01 --> 00:30:07 and my little toys and trinkets. That's not my goal. I could have a whole lot of
314 00:30:07 --> 00:30:11 fun, like I did on baby pips, and just present trades and trades and trades.
315 00:30:11 --> 00:30:14 And really, not really want to teach it, just dangle it out there and see if I
316 00:30:14 --> 00:30:20 can get enough of a crowd following. But I want you to learn how to do it. I
317 00:30:20 --> 00:30:23 really want you to learn how to do it, and I want you to learn how to do it
318 00:30:23 --> 00:30:27 correctly, and that way you don't ever have to come back to my channel. You
319 00:30:27 --> 00:30:30 don't have to supply my channel for ad revenue. That's not That's not the
320 00:30:30 --> 00:30:33 important thing. The important thing is for you to learn how to do it correctly.
321 00:30:33 --> 00:30:37 And it makes sense for someone to want to go through the process of learning
322 00:30:37 --> 00:30:40 how to do it, and in looking for these little, subtle rules that are important.
323 00:30:40 --> 00:30:44 They may not seem important when I'm talking about it. It may seem dry
324 00:30:44 --> 00:30:50 unimportant, and may seem like it's extra filler in the video, but it's not.
325 00:30:50 --> 00:30:56 I'm trying to reinforce and emphasize that there are parts to what it is I'm
326 00:30:56 --> 00:31:01 teaching that's going to require you not just one time watching it, but watching
327 00:31:01 --> 00:31:06 it one time, thinking about what you just watched, and then come back, not
328 00:31:06 --> 00:31:13 the same day, the following day, and then take notes. Don't take notes the
329 00:31:13 --> 00:31:16 first time you watch it. I want you to think about what I'm showing you,
330 00:31:17 --> 00:31:22 because you'll be surprised how many wonderful.