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ICT YT - 2021-09-22 - Forex Price Action Lesson - OTE Fiber 092221

Last modified by Drunk Monkey on 2025-09-27 11:53
1 00:00:27 --> 00:00:37 ICT: Alright, folks, welcome back Long time no see, last time I did a video was the fifth volume of the revised market maker series I put on my YouTube channel.
2 00:00:38 --> 00:00:50 Hopefully everyone that's participating in this video is doing well, you're all safe and healthy. So we're looking at an example here today on the euro dollar.
3 00:00:50 --> 00:01:06 Right? So I'll take your attention into this fractal. Okay, so from this low, up to this high, and where we're at present. And I want you to think about where
4 00:01:06 --> 00:01:23 the support level was, from a retail traders mindset. While they're thinking, this level down here is support. Now, I classically oppose retail trading views,
5 00:01:23 --> 00:01:34 and my students are trained to think that way as well. So if this is support, and a retail minded trader, they think that there's going to be a willingness to
6 00:01:34 --> 00:01:47 bounce here and go higher. So to do that, they're going to buy that and put a stop loss below it. What kind of stop a sell stop. Okay, so it's not a stretch
7 00:01:47 --> 00:01:57 of the imagination, it's someone with more information than most of you watching would view this as a shorting opportunity. And wouldn't it be lucrative for
8 00:01:57 --> 00:02:08 them? If they could get out at that lower just below it? Mom, I'm gonna submit that it's probably a good objective to reach for. So with those things said,
9 00:02:08 --> 00:02:22 it's my submission here to think that the bias for this currency should be viewed as bearish. And running to this level, maybe a little bit below that
10 00:02:22 --> 00:02:32 would be a reasonable expectation for eurodollar. Now, how is that useful for the 22nd of September Now, obviously, this is going to seem like hindsight to
11 00:02:32 --> 00:02:40 someone just sitting down. But I promise you, I'm going to show you an execution because I like to be able to prove that I can do these things and not just talk
12 00:02:40 --> 00:02:48 about things in hindsight, or draw a line on the chart and say, you know, this is a scalp trade. And if it goes up here, five points and reverses, you're led
13 00:02:48 --> 00:02:56 to believe, or hopefully, you'll believe that that was actually a good idea, or a good a good setup or signal with someone paying money for, which is nonsense.
14 00:02:57 --> 00:03:08 But if you look at this logic here, okay, we're looking at this run here to here and now it's trading lower. Where's the bias? To me, it's bearish. Okay, so how
15 00:03:08 --> 00:03:17 can we further illustrate this idea? Well, let's go into an eight hour chart. Alright, here's the eight hour chart on euro dollar. And right away, you should
16 00:03:17 --> 00:03:32 be able to see these lows here and I teach that as a draw on liquidity. This is where it's most likely going to reach for because there are existing sellers
17 00:03:32 --> 00:03:44 right below that low. So how can we look at an anticipated set up that I will prove that was an execution taken on it, but for the basis of framing it out so
18 00:03:44 --> 00:03:54 that we can see the logic behind it using the flagship pattern I teach on this YouTube channel, which is the optimal trade entry. See this high here and this
19 00:03:54 --> 00:04:04 low rate there, that is your dealing range? This is your dealing range, and any retracement up into that would set up the likelihood of a perfect selling
20 00:04:04 --> 00:04:16 opportunity. So if we take our fib and anchor to the high to the low right in here, that's your 62% retracement level, that's your minimum level to reach for
21 00:04:16 --> 00:04:25 for shorting. Okay, now, you can wait for it to hit that level and sell short or you can see it hit it and if it starts to move away from it, if you feel that
22 00:04:25 --> 00:04:33 your confirmation, that's fine too. You can obviously want to sell higher than that but many times you're going to miss opportunities because this level tends
23 00:04:33 --> 00:04:45 to be just about as far as it will likely go at 17.5 which is midway point between the 79 and 62% retracement now around these levels. Obviously as I
24 00:04:45 --> 00:04:56 mentioned many times in the past there's a specific number everybody that uses Fibonacci, they like to use new the not to fall number like I do. I like to
25 00:04:56 --> 00:05:05 simplify even though it doesn't look simplified and all the things I teach but From an optimal trade pattern traders perspective, it's a very easy pattern. So
26 00:05:05 --> 00:05:19 right away we have the 117 55 and three PIP bets. If you look at the high of this candle here, that comes in at 117 55 and six PIP bat, so only one three PIP
27 00:05:19 --> 00:05:23 that's above the 62% retracement level. Okay, so keep that in mind.
28 00:05:25 --> 00:05:38 And we'll take that off. And we're going to add an ICT bearish order block these upclose candles here that is your bearish order block, right. So there's our
29 00:05:38 --> 00:05:47 anchor point to that using an eight hour chart. So we have optimal trade entry. And we have the bearish order block. And we have the draw on liquidity down
30 00:05:47 --> 00:05:57 here. So we have bias which what it's been doing what it's been going lower. There's relative equal lows down here as I teach on this YouTube channel. So the
31 00:05:57 --> 00:06:08 bias is bearish work at a draw to this area down here. What's our pattern? optimal trade entry? How can we use it? bearish order block, dealing range
32 00:06:09 --> 00:06:20 retracement up in during high impact news for Wednesday. So let's go into an an hourly chart. All right, here's our hourly chart for euro dollar. You can see
33 00:06:20 --> 00:06:29 how handsomely it slams right up into that level. And just like magic, it reverses and trades lower. Now what do you think was resting right above this
34 00:06:29 --> 00:06:39 high in this high by stops. So buy side liquidity was resting just above these highs in the market found its way up into that level right there, hammered it
35 00:06:40 --> 00:06:44 and then rejected it. Now I'm going to show you
36 00:06:50 --> 00:07:00 see that? At that candle. And these candles here, partials were taken I sold short there. Now I already know something Oh, come on. I want to see the trade.
37 00:07:00 --> 00:07:08 I'm going to show it to you. Okay. But for now just I want you to see the logic of why I was doing what I was doing. These are partials there's an existing
38 00:07:08 --> 00:07:26 position still open. Okay, you still see it's there. And the older so here. Okay. Close this, you can see it. See that? So there is a position open. And
39 00:07:26 --> 00:07:33 it's through tradingview. It's not a rented server for mt four, none of those things. And you actually watch me execute the entry here. So it's not something
40 00:07:33 --> 00:07:45 I finagled in lipstick you through fraud, like the majority of everyone out there that's doing anything with mt four. But if you look at this logic, we
41 00:07:45 --> 00:07:54 trade up into that level bearish order block bearish optimal trade entry with a bias and manipulation that took place during the FOMC related high impact news
42 00:07:54 --> 00:08:03 and monetary policy statement that was given around two o'clock and 230 in eastern time on the US. This is what we have here. Now I posted on my community
43 00:08:03 --> 00:08:15 tab for this particular day, September 22 2021. As a reminder, this morning, this was going to create the volatility that we saw in the marketplace here. So
44 00:08:16 --> 00:08:26 if we drop into a 15 minute timeframe, okay, 15 minute timeframe, again, you can see the entry was on the highest candle, the price was here. So it won't hit it.
45 00:08:26 --> 00:08:38 As it was coming away from that I sold short. And partials were taken down here. Just to be able to bank you my typical 50 to 75 pips, weekly objective. That's
46 00:08:38 --> 00:08:46 what I teach and made very apparent in all the recordings that we're done talking about my personal style, my own model. That's what I'm aiming for.
47 00:08:46 --> 00:08:53 Obviously, I can do a whole lot more than that. But I have a lot of things I have to manage through teaching and my own personal life. So I don't want to be
48 00:08:53 --> 00:09:00 in front of the charts all the time. I'm not glued in front of these charts all day long. And I know what I'm looking for, I know what I'm waiting for. And the
49 00:09:00 --> 00:09:08 economic calendar helps me find those opportunities well in advance. Like I already know what next week, opportunities I want to be focusing on. Because the
50 00:09:08 --> 00:09:18 economic calendar makes that available to you. And I forward well in advance. So just the TV Guide, and I'm giving myself, you know,
51 00:09:18 --> 00:09:27 I'm dating myself here by saying this. There used to be a TV Guide that used to come out like a magazine, and it would tell you what programs would be on TV on
52 00:09:27 --> 00:09:37 which time and watch out. And now we have it in digital format right on our screens through our streaming service or you cable network or whatever, but used
53 00:09:37 --> 00:09:44 to be in a magazine format. Well, the same thing happens with the economic calendar. If you know what you're looking for, and you have a bias or if you can
54 00:09:44 --> 00:09:53 frame a bias. You know what the direction you're likely to look for in terms of buying or selling. You'll know which markets to trade because of the economic
55 00:09:53 --> 00:10:04 calendar, the high impact or medium impact news event. And when does that news driver hit the marketplace what day in time. So it narrows it down. So we're not
56 00:10:04 --> 00:10:13 in these charts, guessing we're not in here trying to figure out what might happen. Okay, we're not gambling, we're looking for the highest probable
57 00:10:13 --> 00:10:24 scenarios, and then focusing on those only, and letting everybody else to think they know, to talking about institutional traders. All those folks that you
58 00:10:24 --> 00:10:35 know, are trading quote unquote, smart money traders, okay? Or the supply and demand guys, or the white golf guys or whoever else out there, okay, let them do
59 00:10:35 --> 00:10:43 whatever they want to do, let them chase whatever they want to do, okay. interbank traders are looking at key volatility and Jackson's and it's around
60 00:10:43 --> 00:10:54 the economic calendar. That's the highest cream of the crop. That's where all the easy, low hanging fruit setups are. Okay, that's how I really trade. Now I
61 00:10:54 --> 00:11:03 can do other things, that that's just showing off. on this YouTube channel, I'm trying to give you means of which finding the setups using the things I teach
62 00:11:03 --> 00:11:12 you here without a whole lot of moving parts. Now, if you're new, and if it's the first time you've watched me Do these types of videos, this may seem like
63 00:11:12 --> 00:11:20 it's too vague, it's doesn't give you enough information. But I promise you, there's enough here and it's just that simple. To make consistent setups
64 00:11:21 --> 00:11:29 possible for you. It's not every single day trading now. Okay, so that we understand one another, it's not that I'm giving you something that's going to
65 00:11:29 --> 00:11:38 work every single day, every single trading session, London, New York, it's not going to deliver like that, okay? The economic calendar needs to be studied,
66 00:11:39 --> 00:11:49 which opportunity for which particular market or pair in forex, is really setting up a likelihood for a manipulation event, like we have here. Now a new
67 00:11:49 --> 00:11:59 trader or someone that would be a Trend Trader, or they like to use breakouts, that type of thing, they would not necessarily see this as a shorting
68 00:11:59 --> 00:12:09 opportunity, this would scare them. And that's why it's better for someone to come under my wing with very little experience and other stuff, because it's
69 00:12:10 --> 00:12:19 easy to try to hold on to something you think works. And that armwrestling match is a struggling point for many of the new students that come into my tutelage,
70 00:12:20 --> 00:12:30 whether by my mentorship group, or by the lessons that's made available on this YouTube channel. So if you have been learning other methods, and maybe you've
71 00:12:30 --> 00:12:40 made money in the past, I promise you 90% of what you made money on had nothing to do with what you believe in. If you saw what I teach those times where you
72 00:12:40 --> 00:12:50 made money, they lined up with that, not something else. And I know what that sounds like, coming from me. Okay, because I was a hardcore Larry Williams
73 00:12:50 --> 00:12:59 student, anything that was opposed to what he would say or taught was nonsense. And I would get offended and be like, oh, they're fake. They're a scammer. And
74 00:12:59 --> 00:13:08 they may be making money. There's a lot of people out there making money with things that aren't what I teach. But the logic and reason why they're putting
75 00:13:08 --> 00:13:19 the success behind what they did, is flawed, just like when I was making money in a position of ignorance. And that happened for nine months, when I first
76 00:13:19 --> 00:13:29 started. So if I take that experience, and attribute that as skill, like I did, then and then get to a point when the markets a little bit more challenging. And
77 00:13:29 --> 00:13:39 I'm not unable to make money using the same things and the same logic, doesn't it? Make it apparent that that logic is flawed? Absolutely. Because I never was
78 00:13:39 --> 00:13:48 able to make it make money again. So I had to revisit what it is I thought I understood about the marketplace. The things I teach. I mean, look at it, folks.
79 00:13:48 --> 00:13:54 Okay, the highest candle, I'm selling short one, and I'm covering at the second lowest and the lowest candle taking partials.
80 00:13:57 --> 00:14:07 Would you want to learn how to do that? Because you learn it right from this YouTube channel. For free, cost you nothing but the time to put in front of a
81 00:14:07 --> 00:14:15 chart studying taking notes, and writing down the questions that arise in your mind. Now, many of you are coming to my channel after it's picked up 50,000
82 00:14:15 --> 00:14:24 people since the last week of April, thank you very much for sharing my videos. Thank you for encouraging other people to come and visit and learn here. But
83 00:14:24 --> 00:14:38 gain 50,000 subscribers and do very little video uploads like I do you I'm surprised that there would be that much interest without any advertising on my
84 00:14:38 --> 00:14:45 part, like I don't do any kind of you ad campaigns or anything like that. And it's just word of mouth. And I thank you and appreciate all of you to do that.
85 00:14:46 --> 00:14:55 And maybe you're here new as a result of someone sharing a video with you. This is something that I didn't believe existed when I first started learning how to
86 00:14:55 --> 00:15:04 trade like entries here and getting out down here. That It just didn't make any sense. Like anybody would be able to know that. And the way I teach price action
87 00:15:04 --> 00:15:13 and how the interbank markets work in the book, a lot of those things are specific to forex. But I also had that same level of precision in futures
88 00:15:13 --> 00:15:26 contracts, index futures, commodity markets, stocks, metals, bond markets. So it's not just limited to just forex, I just prefer forex, because it's a lot
89 00:15:26 --> 00:15:35 better game than anything else out there. It's very specific things that it operates under, and i'm not i'm looking for and my students know what they're
90 00:15:35 --> 00:15:43 looking for in regards to those things. We call them signatures, okay, price action signatures. And if they repeat over and over again, it gives you an
91 00:15:43 --> 00:15:53 insight advantage. It doesn't mean without risk, it doesn't mean without losing money, because you will lose money, I've lost money, I will probably have lots
92 00:15:53 --> 00:16:01 of losses between now and when I finally lay down for the last time. So that's a given. That's risk. That's why you have to use stop loss and good money
93 00:16:01 --> 00:16:10 management. But I want you to take a look at the video I'm going to show you here with this simple logic of our outline here. Very simple pattern, optimal
94 00:16:10 --> 00:16:20 trade entry. If you're new, and you're wondering, all these videos, where do I begin? My advice for you is simply pick a series, I don't care what series you
95 00:16:20 --> 00:16:31 go to, because all of them are going to rely on each other. Okay, they overlap with a lot of different complimentary logic. And you can't just watch one series
96 00:16:31 --> 00:16:38 and think you know, everything I've taught on this YouTube channel and watching them multiple times, you're gonna find that you didn't pick up on everything you
97 00:16:38 --> 00:16:49 thought you did. And some of them are actually very long winded. And in those long winded parts, I'm giving you really gold advice. That is the things that
98 00:16:50 --> 00:16:57 the casual student that comes to my channel, they want to find something that works right away. It's like a person that wants to get involved in magic, they
99 00:16:57 --> 00:17:05 want to go to a magic store and buy a magic trick that self working. That's the logic of a losing trader. Okay, I went into the marketplace thinking that same
100 00:17:05 --> 00:17:12 thing initially. And guess what, it bit me, I lost a lot of money. And I kept trying to repeat that same thing think it would finally work for me. And I just
101 00:17:12 --> 00:17:21 kept blowing accounts. So in the 90s, I learned that painfully, I'm teaching you so you don't have to go through those experiences of losing painfully, which is
102 00:17:22 --> 00:17:33 demoralizing. It causes toxic thinking, if you just simply go in with the idea that you are not going to trade with live money for at least 12 months. And
103 00:17:33 --> 00:17:43 that's realistic. If anybody tells you anything other than that. They're lying to you, and they're rushing you and they're not going to have your best interest
104 00:17:43 --> 00:17:53 in mind, I'm telling you, it's going to take you a minimum of a year, why a full year, because there are certain things that repeat seasonally and cyclically
105 00:17:53 --> 00:18:02 that will take you by surprise if you don't know what they are. So someone can teach you a pattern and an entry mechanism. But that's not going to help you if
106 00:18:02 --> 00:18:11 you don't know how to navigate the overall macro that takes place over 12 months. That's why I teach my mentorship over a 12 month core content study
107 00:18:11 --> 00:18:20 basis, then we dive deeper in into other lessons, but they have to have that otherwise, you're not gonna understand it. So the alternative that you can join
108 00:18:20 --> 00:18:28 my mentorship. Now the alternative would be to go through the YouTube channel content I have here. Start with one series, okay, it could be what every new and
109 00:18:28 --> 00:18:38 aspiring for straighter wants to know, or what we call the width series, you can do that one, or you can do the market maker primer series, which is things like
110 00:18:38 --> 00:18:47 20 videos, or whatever, multiple topical studies at start there. Or you can do the precision trading series, which I think is only like three videos or so
111 00:18:49 --> 00:18:55 just to whet your appetite about what it is you can learn here. But you're going to have to go through all the other stuff. So just make it a point of trying to
112 00:18:55 --> 00:19:04 digest the video, maybe one or two a day. And nothing more than that, because you're not going to retain it. So if you're wondering, and I get a lot of these
113 00:19:04 --> 00:19:14 emails, I just don't have the time to get to them. But I get so many emails and it's just, it's too much for me to get to everyone's email anymore. I would
114 00:19:14 --> 00:19:26 never get anything done. So to answer the repeating question that comes my way is how do I go into your YouTube content? And where do I start, pick any
115 00:19:26 --> 00:19:38 particular playlist and start there, and then go to another one, and you'll find that they overlap. It's just it's a lot of content. And by taking from each
116 00:19:38 --> 00:19:48 playlist, gradually, you'll get a more collective comprehensive view of what it is I'm teaching here, and it'll help you formulate your own approach without me
117 00:19:48 --> 00:19:55 saying here, only do this and let me press you into this one single mode for everybody because that doesn't work. didn't work for me. It's never gonna work
118 00:19:55 --> 00:20:05 for anybody else like that. You have to bring your own unique personality and your perspective that's unique to you to your trading doesn't make a difference.
119 00:20:05 --> 00:20:13 If I'm teaching a specific pattern or logic, the understanding and the underpinnings of the marketplace, they are generic, they have to be understood.
120 00:20:13 --> 00:20:23 And then you can take that logic work within a particular asset class, whether it be forex futures, crypto, whatever, in a specific timeframe. And then you
121 00:20:23 --> 00:20:32 have your own unique model that's unique to you, no one else has that same model. It may be similar to other models like mine, or someone else's learn from
122 00:20:32 --> 00:20:41 me, but not exactly what you frame it out. And that's what's required for you to do well. That way you'll be comfortable with when you take a loss, you know,
123 00:20:41 --> 00:20:48 it's not broken, it just means that you did it wrong, okay, and you read it wrong. And your model is not broken. But what I've shown you here is a very,
124 00:20:48 --> 00:20:59 very simple approach to what I teach in this YouTube content. And it's repeats every single week, every single week, this setup forms. So I used it to give
125 00:20:59 --> 00:21:12 this example to show you my one shot one kill, which is my 50 to 75 pips in one trade, showing you the precision of getting in and getting out. And I do this to
126 00:21:12 --> 00:21:21 showcase the fact that these things work. It's not hindsight. It's not something I get lucky at once in a while my students know, I was waiting for this
127 00:21:21 --> 00:21:32 particular day this week. And I told him last week, okay, so it's not a matter of, you know, I mean, how he finally got a winning trade. It's the logic of why
128 00:21:32 --> 00:21:45 I'm waiting for what I'm waiting for. And let me preface this by saying this and summary. Right now, we are at the highest level of risk any trader has ever
129 00:21:45 --> 00:21:53 seen. So if you're pushing your luck, and you're driving really, really hard, trying to find a lot of trades and doing it a lot, you were asking to get
130 00:21:53 --> 00:22:06 destroyed in this marketplace. A black swan event is looming. And it may come out of nowhere where nobody expects it, even me, and it may wipe you out. So
131 00:22:06 --> 00:22:16 your trade risk should be very low, your trade frequency should be very, very low. And try not to be excited or animated about getting into next winning
132 00:22:16 --> 00:22:24 trade. If you take a win, good. Sit on your hands and wait to the next week. Look for one choice setup per week right now. That's exactly what I'm telling my
133 00:22:24 --> 00:22:31 own students and mentorship. Okay, if they were all here collectively in the had a live chat where we could all be saying, you know, yeah, he said that. They
134 00:22:31 --> 00:22:40 would all say the same thing. Yes, that's exactly what I'm telling you. This, not the cheap mentorship students. I'm telling you this so that we nobody gets
135 00:22:40 --> 00:22:46 hurt because you come to this channel, you trust me, you come to me as a resource for information knowledge. And I'm telling you this now so you don't
136 00:22:46 --> 00:22:58 hurt yourself. Nobody else out here saying this stuff. No other teacher educator mentor is saying this. I'm telling you, do not push it right now. Try to look
137 00:22:58 --> 00:23:08 for one good set up per week and be content with that don't do anything else. So with that, let's take a look at this execution. Hope you find it insightful
138 00:23:08 --> 00:23:22 until I talk to you again. wish good luck and good trading in
139 00:23:30 --> 00:23:32 this lesson