Skip to Content
Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2021-01-13 12:10
Show last authors
1 1
2 00:00:28,740 ~-~-> 00:00:38,310
3 ICT: Alright, folks, welcome back. This is a new year and some new discussions,
4 we're going to talk about major moves with seasonal tendencies. Now I'm going to
5
6 2
7 00:00:38,310 ~-~-> 00:00:50,730
8 talk about specifically, commodities in this lecture. Now, it's important to
9 know that if some of you are hardline crypto traders, or Forex traders, there
10
11 3
12 00:00:50,730 ~-~-> 00:01:03,330
13 are seasonal tendencies. In forex, there are seasonal tendencies in the dollar
14 index their seasonal tendencies in stocks. So try not to read so much into this
15
16 4
17 00:01:03,330 ~-~-> 00:01:15,810
18 lesson. And think of it as only applying to the markets I'm going to refer to in
19 its delivery. Okay, so understanding understand a seasonal tendency is a
20
21 5
22 00:01:15,840 ~-~-> 00:01:30,600
23 roadmap, it's a generalization of what has happened in the past. And if there is
24 some measure of repeating phenomenon, okay, in other words, if we think that the
25
26 6
27 00:01:30,600 ~-~-> 00:01:39,480
28 market is going to go up at a particular time of the year, to a specific time of
29 the year, and we measure it over the last five years, over the last 10 years,
30
31 7
32 00:01:39,480 ~-~-> 00:01:50,490
33 the last 15 years, the last 20 and 25 years, there are services out there. And
34 I'll turn you on to one in this teaching, that I have a lot of faith in myself
35
36 8
37 00:01:50,490 ~-~-> 00:02:03,030
38 personally. But it's important to note that I'm not saying this is going to be
39 the case, every single time you look at the marketplace, there are some certain
40
41 9
42 00:02:03,030 ~-~-> 00:02:10,590
43 caveats that have to be considered. And I'll briefly discuss those as we go
44 along. But I'm going to try to keep this video short. Because I know some of you
45
46 10
47 00:02:10,590 ~-~-> 00:02:19,740
48 have very short attention spans when it comes to my lectures, because if I'm
49 talking too much, I'm just trying to give you an extra value and insights that
50
51 11
52 00:02:19,740 ~-~-> 00:02:32,400
53 you would otherwise have to pay for elsewhere. So let's take a look at $1 index
54 chart to begin with. Alright, so we're looking at the Dollar Index, and I'm
55
56 12
57 00:02:32,400 ~-~-> 00:02:41,640
58 using tradingview.com. Right, so you can find this information yourself, you can
59 go pull up your own version of this chart and take a look at the things I'm
60
61 13
62 00:02:41,640 ~-~-> 00:02:51,570
63 referring to hear. And it should be on par with what I'm showing in my charts.
64 Now I'm going to refrain from showing any kind of real annotations until we get
65
66 14
67 00:02:51,570 ~-~-> 00:03:04,650
68 to the very specific market, I want to talk about, but I'm going to talk about a
69 few of them, and review some of the potential opportunities that make themselves
70
71 15
72 00:03:04,650 ~-~-> 00:03:17,370
73 available each year in these markets. So I've always begin my analysis with the
74 dollar index. Okay. And the reason why I do that is because I want to know, if
75
76 16
77 00:03:17,370 ~-~-> 00:03:28,710
78 we are on a risk on or risk off environment now risk on would be where the
79 market has the dollar index going lower, as we see here around July of 2020. To
80
81 17
82 00:03:28,710 ~-~-> 00:03:42,810
83 present and that would allow or permit the likelihood of markets to rally or go
84 higher, and that being like foreign currency against the dollar, and also
85
86 18
87 00:03:43,050 ~-~-> 00:03:52,950
88 commodities. Because if the dollar is going lower, that is more or less
89 inflationary for commodity prices, so they're going to see a an appreciation in
90
91 19
92 00:03:53,340 ~-~-> 00:04:06,600
93 the cost of producing and or purchasing commodities. So if we can just simply
94 understand that going forward, everything in this teaching will be very easy to
95
96 20
97 00:04:06,600 ~-~-> 00:04:15,510
98 follow along. If you're someone that's new to my channel or new to commodities
99 or trading in general, you're probably going to want to watch other video series
100
101 21
102 00:04:15,540 ~-~-> 00:04:27,180
103 on this YouTube channel. It'll help fill in some of the gaps I'm certain that
104 you have watching this. If the dollar index is going higher, that's going to be
105
106 22
107 00:04:27,180 ~-~-> 00:04:38,370
108 deflationary for commodity prices and also for foreign currencies. They're going
109 to go lower in relationship to the higher prices in dollar. Now, if we have that
110
111 23
112 00:04:38,370 ~-~-> 00:04:53,370
113 risk on risk off scenario in mind, when dollars going lower, that's risk on when
114 dollars going higher. That's risk off. If we have this period of time when the
115
116 24
117 00:04:53,370 ~-~-> 00:05:06,780
118 market is clearly indicating that the dollar wants to go lower, that means we
119 are on the watch For big moves on the upside, okay, really big moves. One such
120
121 25
122 00:05:06,780 ~-~-> 00:05:19,350
123 big move this year was the soybean market. And I've been very vocal about that
124 my students know about that. And I've also tipped the community off in my
125
126 26
127 00:05:19,350 ~-~-> 00:05:26,010
128 YouTube channel. And if you look at that, over here, I have a bunch of things
129 that I've shared publicly here. Now, when I look at this,
130
131 27
132 00:05:27,660 ~-~-> 00:05:35,610
133 I can see that it doesn't really give me a specific date. And I'm actually
134 learning something as I do this video with you right now. I'm going to include
135
136 28
137 00:05:35,670 ~-~-> 00:05:49,290
138 the actual date that I post it, okay, so I wish it would have given me a
139 specific date. But nonetheless, it is what it is the the thumbs up that's
140
141 29
142 00:05:49,290 ~-~-> 00:05:58,380
143 highlighted here, just so you guys know, I like to post the comment, and then I
144 wait for the first thumbs up. And I'm usually the second thumbs up, because it's
145
146 30
147 00:05:58,380 ~-~-> 00:06:08,040
148 my way of checking to make sure that it's viewable on your end, because I've had
149 members in the past, say I can't see my posts or the posts I make to the
150
151 31
152 00:06:08,040 ~-~-> 00:06:15,270
153 community tab. They don't they they're saying they didn't see or they did say
154 they couldn't see it. So I usually wait for someone to do a thumbs up. That
155
156 32
157 00:06:15,270 ~-~-> 00:06:24,000
158 means it's visible when you're in as the audience and then I'm typically the
159 second thumbs up. So it's not me being conceited or loving myself, it's just a
160
161 33
162 00:06:24,000 ~-~-> 00:06:34,230
163 way for me to know that. Okay, that post has been seen, it's public now. And I
164 can leave YouTube and go about my business somewhere else. But if you look at
165
166 34
167 00:06:34,290 ~-~-> 00:06:44,250
168 about a month ago, I mentioned that if you take a look at the grain reports,
169 soybeans, as I stated, since June of 2020, was poised to continue to rally in
170
171 35
172 00:06:44,250 ~-~-> 00:06:54,150
173 the 2021. And I stayed here. Corn will be next. Now notice there's no edit here,
174 like you see here to edit. It means that when I change a typo or something like
175
176 36
177 00:06:54,150 ~-~-> 00:07:05,430
178 that, here, I'm telling you, specifically a month ago that corn is going to be
179 the next big rally. Okay, it's going to go up. Why? Well, if you look at here,
180
181 37
182 00:07:05,550 ~-~-> 00:07:15,300
183 I'm telling you that China's buying everything again. And I gave you the reasons
184 I'm not going to read it, you can see it here. But I also talked about Bitcoin,
185
186 38
187 00:07:15,810 ~-~-> 00:07:28,230
188 and I called 20,000, before Christmas. And when I was on Twitter, which I'm not
189 now I also posted in July of 2020, I stated that I felt that we would see
190
191 39
192 00:07:28,740 ~-~-> 00:07:42,900
193 Bitcoin 30,000 by the end of the year going into 2021 I was off by one day. So
194 sorry. The next level I called for Bitcoin and I'll let you scroll through, you
195
196 40
197 00:07:42,900 ~-~-> 00:07:55,710
198 can find this on your own. I called 40,000 and went to like 42,000 something,
199 and then it has recently had some difficulties. So I'm making calls here
200
201 41
202 00:07:55,920 ~-~-> 00:08:04,110
203 publicly because I've had people in the past, make some derogatory comments
204 about how I don't really put my neck out on the line say, this is what I think
205
206 42
207 00:08:04,110 ~-~-> 00:08:12,600
208 is going to happen. And I used to do that a lot on Twitter, but I don't have
209 Twitter anymore. So this has replaced my Twitter. And you can follow along and
210
211 43
212 00:08:12,630 ~-~-> 00:08:22,170
213 see what I'm suggesting in my expectation now don't do everything. But I toss
214 out once in a while something for you guys to study. And we're gonna take a look
215
216 44
217 00:08:22,170 ~-~-> 00:08:36,510
218 at the corn market here in relationship to the soybean market. And we're going
219 to use that dollar bearishness from July as a context to anticipating higher
220
221 45
222 00:08:36,510 ~-~-> 00:08:46,530
223 prices on every market I'm going to cover in this teaching. So let's move on
224 over to soybeans first. Alright, so here's the soybean market. And in June of
225
226 46
227 00:08:46,530 ~-~-> 00:08:55,860
228 this past year, I was warming all my students up to the idea that we were going
229 to eventually make a run above these highs here. And that we will have a pretty
230
231 47
232 00:08:55,860 ~-~-> 00:09:04,350
233 big bull market going into the commodity market because of the dollar index
234 being bearish. Now, some of you that are in my mentorship are getting really
235
236 48
237 00:09:04,350 ~-~-> 00:09:12,780
238 nervous right now because you're thinking I'm teaching mentorship, when all I'm
239 dealing is talking about what you've experienced before it happened. So please
240
241 49
242 00:09:12,780 ~-~-> 00:09:21,330
243 don't send me emails, okay. And they some of you are highly protected, and I
244 love you all for that. But I want to kind of teach something broad brush, and
245
246 50
247 00:09:21,330 ~-~-> 00:09:33,870
248 I'm really not doing harm to what you are participating in. So just give me the
249 Liberty here to be able to be a teacher outside of mentorship to because it's
250
251 51
252 00:09:34,740 ~-~-> 00:09:45,750
253 why this channel exists. The there is no mentorship joining now, by the way, so
254 we have closed the doors. Do not send the emails. And it is what it is. This is
255
256 52
257 00:09:45,750 ~-~-> 00:09:53,430
258 not a sales pitch. It's not meant for you to Hey, come in and join learn how to
259 do this. Everyone that's already emailed me if you've email me, and we haven't
260
261 53
262 00:09:53,430 ~-~-> 00:10:02,250
263 gotten to yet, that's fine. We'll get to you and we'll consider you but anyone
264 new. We're not taking anybody else in so It's too many people, it is what it is.
265
266 54
267 00:10:02,280 ~-~-> 00:10:15,540
268 And we're done. But if you look at what has transpired since June of last year,
269 we've had this extremely handsome price run on soybeans. So if you
270
271 55
272 00:10:16,560 ~-~-> 00:10:28,710
273 were to use the will say $8.80 a bushel, okay, right in here, you're not getting
274 the best entry here, not getting the best entry here. But from 880, up to 1080,
275
276 56
277 00:10:28,920 ~-~-> 00:10:48,690
278 that's $10,000 per contract. Okay, that's $20,000 if it goes to 1280. Now, if it
279 goes to 1480, that's another $10,000. How many Bitcoin moves? Have you seen in
280
281 57
282 00:10:48,690 ~-~-> 00:11:01,590
283 your lifetime as a crypto trader, the one we just recently seen, and the big run
284 up in 2017, right? I called 2017. And I called the top, then I mentioned many
285
286 58
287 00:11:01,590 ~-~-> 00:11:14,370
288 times that your new traders that got exposed to crypto feels like that's the
289 only market that traders could have gotten wealthy on. And I kind of taught this
290
291 59
292 00:11:14,370 ~-~-> 00:11:25,440
293 back in 2017, and 2018, and 2019. Every time I get a new student that the first
294 question comes to mind is, you know, do you regret missing Bitcoin, because I've
295
296 60
297 00:11:25,470 ~-~-> 00:11:35,610
298 been very public and state that I don't trade crypto, I didn't trade Bitcoin.
299 But whenever I make my calls public, obviously, it comes with a great deal of
300
301 61
302 00:11:36,420 ~-~-> 00:11:47,280
303 kickback if it if it opposes the view of a certain group of my audience members.
304 I don't do this to upset anyone purposely. But you know, I get more requests for
305
306 62
307 00:11:47,280 ~-~-> 00:11:56,880
308 me sharing what I think is going to happen, then people coming back and saying,
309 I really wish you wouldn't have said that. So I try to be as open as I possibly
310
311 63
312 00:11:56,880 ~-~-> 00:12:06,240
313 can and tell you what I think is going to happen, where I think it's going to go
314 and for the most part, why I think it's going to go there. And every call that
315
316 64
317 00:12:06,240 ~-~-> 00:12:17,190
318 I've made publicly, you're welcome to look at and weigh in the balances. But
319 these are big moves that take place in the commodity market. And you don't need
320
321 65
322 00:12:17,190 ~-~-> 00:12:33,810
323 a Bitcoin move to define wealth, because what you see here can be the same
324 thing, if not more than what you saw in Bitcoin. This past, what, seven months,
325
326 66
327 00:12:35,640 ~-~-> 00:12:45,990
328 or six or seven months to the same amount of money that one could have made in
329 that Bitcoin run, you could do in this right here. And I stated this very
330
331 67
332 00:12:45,990 ~-~-> 00:12:56,910
333 market, when I was making the case and argument with the crypto traders that
334 were saying, I should be regretting not being a part of the largest bull market
335
336 68
337 00:12:57,270 ~-~-> 00:13:05,760
338 in history. Well, there's always a big bull market, there's always a big mega
339 trade. Okay, every year, the markets create them. And I tried to state this
340
341 69
342 00:13:05,760 ~-~-> 00:13:17,970
343 before that I have tools that help me ferret those out. And one of the things
344 that I look for is a seasonal tendency, if a seasonal tendency indicates that
345
346 70
347 00:13:17,970 ~-~-> 00:13:29,520
348 the markets likely to go up by itself doesn't mean anything. But if we can find
349 a time when the market is bullish, and a seasonal tendency, is suggesting that
350
351 71
352 00:13:29,550 ~-~-> 00:13:38,490
353 historically, it usually goes up, then we have something to work with. And then
354 it's a matter of just waiting for market structure to get in sync with those two
355
356 72
357 00:13:38,760 ~-~-> 00:13:50,940
358 underlying premise if the market is bullish, and the market is showing a bullish
359 seasonal tendency, we wait for the market to give us a bullish market structure.
360
361 73
362 00:13:51,960 ~-~-> 00:14:02,820
363 So we have multiple things in here. And I've talked about soybeans before. So
364 I'm not going to try to redo that here and waste time. But we we see markets,
365
366 74
367 00:14:03,060 ~-~-> 00:14:11,130
368 making runs like this a lot in hindsight, but it's all together something
369 different when you're able to see it, outline it before it happens and call it
370
371 75
372 00:14:11,460 ~-~-> 00:14:27,780
373 with you know a large degree of depreciation on the upside. So we're seeing huge
374 amount of potential price run that would otherwise be either ignored or not
375
376 76
377 00:14:27,930 ~-~-> 00:14:36,060
378 expected. There's a lot of people on YouTube that are claiming they got the
379 signals that work they got the calls that make the money they got this and they
380
381 77
382 00:14:36,060 ~-~-> 00:14:45,270
383 got that and they're pointing to these tiny little add fluctuations in the
384 marketplace. Tiny little fluctuations. And I outlined for free gave it to you on
385
386 78
387 00:14:45,270 ~-~-> 00:15:02,370
388 a silver platter. 30,000 points in Bitcoin publicly given to you. If you look at
389 the soybean market, I showed you that one as well. And a month ago, I tipped you
390
391 79
392 00:15:02,370 ~-~-> 00:15:16,230
393 off with corn. So let's take a look at corn. All right, I'm going to go to corn.
394 And we'll use the nearby contract, which is March 2021.
395
396 80
397 00:15:17,609 ~-~-> 00:15:33,239
398 Okay, so here you go a month ago, right? There, okay, corn. Going to go higher,
399 it's gonna be the next big move. That's in the community tab on my YouTube
400
401 81
402 00:15:33,239 ~-~-> 00:15:49,469
403 channel. unedited. Okay, I got a lot of flack from people saying that I've used
404 rented servers, that I've done fraud, that I cheat people, I lie to people, I
405
406 82
407 00:15:49,469 ~-~-> 00:15:59,099
408 give them a false impression that I can trade. And nobody's ever seen me call
409 markets before it happens. And it's just, that still finds its way in
410
411 83
412 00:15:59,099 ~-~-> 00:16:11,399
413 discussions in certain corners on the internet. And I have been giving you
414 million dollar maker moves. Okay, I'm giving you the big moves. Because I can,
415
416 84
417 00:16:11,759 ~-~-> 00:16:21,719
418 I'm sharing them publicly, I'm not selling them, I'm not making you come into my
419 mentorship to get them. I'm giving you for free, because I can afford to do
420
421 85
422 00:16:21,719 ~-~-> 00:16:32,909
423 that. I don't need to have people pay me for signals. I'm interested in teaching
424 you how to find these things. And honestly, everything on this YouTube channel
425
426 86
427 00:16:33,539 ~-~-> 00:16:44,609
428 shows you how to find these moves. But you don't want to listen to the
429 discussions and the lecture points that are boring. And it's one thing that you
430
431 87
432 00:16:44,609 ~-~-> 00:16:52,799
433 see people go out and take my content. And just give me some latitude here. I'm
434 going to make this point. A lot of people out here taking my stuff and making
435
436 88
437 00:16:52,799 ~-~-> 00:17:01,079
438 YouTube videos about it. Because times are tough right now. And they want to try
439 to get a group get over 1000 subscribers since they start making some ad
440
441 89
442 00:17:01,079 ~-~-> 00:17:08,999
443 revenue, because they need to hustle because either lost their job or they're
444 paranoid because everything's going on this year and past year rather. And they
445
446 90
447 00:17:08,999 ~-~-> 00:17:22,139
448 need to make money. I understand that. Okay. But when you are trying to teach
449 something that you don't know, you're doing more harm to the audience. And if
450
451 91
452 00:17:22,139 ~-~-> 00:17:30,989
453 you think you know what I can do, and what I teach, then you should be able to
454 pull out these market moves before they happen to not talk about them in
455
456 92
457 00:17:30,989 ~-~-> 00:17:40,799
458 hindsight. That's the difference between me. Everybody says, oh, ICT is a
459 scalper he's an intraday trader. He's mister 10 pips 20 pips? No, but I can do
460
461 93
462 00:17:40,799 ~-~-> 00:17:51,509
463 more with that type of trading than anybody else that's trading these larger big
464 position trade swings, because I can parlay that up and have velocity behind the
465
466 94
467 00:17:51,509 ~-~-> 00:18:02,249
468 equity. But you don't need to trade a lot. If you listen to what I teach, you
469 can sit back and be very passive and investment and capture these big moves,
470
471 95
472 00:18:02,699 ~-~-> 00:18:18,479
473 we're going to assume that you were in here around the $4.20 a bushel and above
474 today $5.20 a bushel, that is a $5,000 price move per contract. Now, it took a
475
476 96
477 00:18:18,479 ~-~-> 00:18:32,309
478 month to get it. But if you would have had say, I don't know 10 call options,
479 you wouldn't have had the Full Exposure required for margin to do the trade, you
480
481 97
482 00:18:32,309 ~-~-> 00:18:41,069
483 could have done some call options. And whatever you paid for the option that
484 would be the amount of risk total plus commission that you would have looked at
485
486 98
487 00:18:41,249 ~-~-> 00:18:54,629
488 as incurred risk. five grand for a month. Some of you probably don't make that
489 in a month. I know when I was working as a younger man. I wasn't making that
490
491 99
492 00:18:54,629 ~-~-> 00:19:07,739
493 much money. Now we're talking about back in the 80s. But 1980s it's it sounds
494 funny to say it like that. And I'm laughing because I think about how my son was
495
496 100
497 00:19:07,769 ~-~-> 00:19:17,579
498 asking me earlier before I made this video. He asked me he just said what cool
499 cars were there back in the 1900s. And he to hear him say it that way made it
500
501 101
502 00:19:17,579 ~-~-> 00:19:35,369
503 sound like I'm even older than I really am. The the idea of looking for these
504 types of price moves and seeing how much is available on one position. Okay, if
505
506 102
507 00:19:35,369 ~-~-> 00:19:42,179
508 you can find trades like this, and it can present moves like this or like what I
509 showed in the soybean market.
510
511 103
512 00:19:43,530 ~-~-> 00:19:55,680
513 Those types of moves if you can find them and ferret them out over time, they
514 can make you wealthy. Now the problem is this. Like it was for me when I first
515
516 104
517 00:19:55,680 ~-~-> 00:20:08,430
518 started in 1992. I read a book Ken Roberts His commodity course. And you all
519 probably heard us enough, I'm not going to beat it up even more. But I felt that
520
521 105
522 00:20:08,430 ~-~-> 00:20:17,940
523 I was going to be one of those success stories. And I was going to make a
524 fortune in my first year. And I was going to do everything the book said, and my
525
526 106
527 00:20:17,940 ~-~-> 00:20:27,900
528 first trade of lost 50% of the account, I've made no bones about it, it is what
529 it is. And even my students that first come to my YouTube channel, or they
530
531 107
532 00:20:27,900 ~-~-> 00:20:38,910
533 traded other markets, and they've tasted pain and loss, because they don't
534 really know what they're doing, then you see what I do in these videos, and it
535
536 108
537 00:20:38,910 ~-~-> 00:20:47,310
538 opens their eyes to what they did not know. And they can go into the old data
539 and say, Wow, I can really see this is making perfect sense. That's the
540
541 109
542 00:20:47,310 ~-~-> 00:20:54,930
543 difference between understanding what the markets really do versus what the
544 markets did, and then write a book about it, you know that it doesn't work. It
545
546 110
547 00:20:54,930 ~-~-> 00:21:05,280
548 doesn't help, okay, if all these books were able to help people make money, then
549 they wouldn't need to make more books. The people that made books 100 years ago,
550
551 111
552 00:21:05,790 ~-~-> 00:21:15,630
553 would have been enough, there would be no reason to make another book. So it's
554 this trap that you all follow. And I did it to trust me, I did it. I wasted a
555
556 112
557 00:21:15,630 ~-~-> 00:21:26,220
558 fortune on buying books and courses when I first started. And honestly, none of
559 that crap worked. None of it, it caused me to lose more and feel even more
560
561 113
562 00:21:26,220 ~-~-> 00:21:38,880
563 insecure about myself. And it, it was like an endless circle of always learning
564 but never coming to the truth. When I got exposed to how the markets really
565
566 114
567 00:21:38,940 ~-~-> 00:21:51,480
568 book, it changed everything. And I went back in and turned everything else
569 upside down, and it started working. These ideas here, I'm just gonna make it
570
571 115
572 00:21:51,480 ~-~-> 00:22:03,660
573 very easy for you. If you go to Amazon, and you buy the book, how I made a
574 million dollars trading commodities last year by Larry Williams. Okay. Let's go
575
576 116
577 00:22:03,660 ~-~-> 00:22:10,440
578 over to Amazon, and I'll show you what that looks like. Alright, so here's the
579 book I'm talking about. And you've heard me mentioned this before. So this is
580
581 117
582 00:22:10,440 ~-~-> 00:22:17,730
583 where you can go and get it. Notice that I'm not giving you a link, I'm not
584 doing an affiliate program, I'm not trying to get paid for you making a
585
586 118
587 00:22:17,730 ~-~-> 00:22:28,260
588 purchase. I'm just freely giving you the information. If you don't want to buy
589 the book, then don't buy the book. But this book was one of the first books that
590
591 119
592 00:22:28,260 ~-~-> 00:22:42,240
593 I bought that made sense and made me money. So the things I like about this
594 book, and let's see if I can pull it up here a table of contents, this chapter
595
596 120
597 00:22:42,240 ~-~-> 00:22:57,540
598 here, chapter four, where he says my million dollar fundamental system. And
599 going into this area here, he basically covers all of the most important things
600
601 121
602 00:22:57,840 ~-~-> 00:23:08,190
603 that make commodity markets move on a large scale. Okay. So all of these things
604 in your chapter four, that to me, is
605
606 122
607 00:23:09,660 ~-~-> 00:23:20,700
608 the real shining chapter in it doesn't mean that there's other parts in this
609 book that isn't interesting or noteworthy. But there are things like he talks
610
611 123
612 00:23:20,700 ~-~-> 00:23:28,380
613 about the phases of the moon, and the influence of buying and selling on that I
614 don't subscribe to any of that. But I'm not here to beat him up because he was
615
616 124
617 00:23:28,380 ~-~-> 00:23:37,710
618 my first mentor. So at night, not trying to say that Ken Roberts wasn't a
619 mentor, because he was a mentor, because that was the very first book I read.
620
621 125
622 00:23:37,920 ~-~-> 00:23:47,970
623 But it lost money. Everything I did with it was completely abandon everything I
624 learned from him. And the next mentor I had was Larry Williams. And this book
625
626 126
627 00:23:47,970 ~-~-> 00:24:03,000
628 was highly influential. Now, if you go through this book, you will see the
629 effects and the impression that Larry had on me. And you can also see I amped
630
631 127
632 00:24:03,060 ~-~-> 00:24:12,540
633 up, especially if you're in the mentorship level stuff. Again, I hate to say it
634 that way, because it sounds like I'm dying. I don't want anyone asking to join
635
636 128
637 00:24:12,540 ~-~-> 00:24:22,260
638 because I'm not taking anyone new. I have to keep putting that in there. I'm
639 sorry. But if the students that, like we're all in a big room, okay, we were all
640
641 129
642 00:24:22,260 ~-~-> 00:24:31,950
643 like a live seminar. And I said, Okay, who's here that's in mentorship. Raise
644 your hand and you'd see whatever number of people would be there to raise their
645
646 130
647 00:24:31,950 ~-~-> 00:24:41,130
648 hand and say, okay, who has gone through this book I'm talking about here. And
649 they would raise their hand and I'd say okay, now raise your hand if you seen me
650
651 131
652 00:24:41,190 ~-~-> 00:24:54,210
653 amplify and fill in a lot of the things for precision based rules. With this
654 information because this was the foundation I started with. I started with this
655
656 132
657 00:24:54,840 ~-~-> 00:25:05,700
658 and I built on it and I built on it and built on it and it just Further
659 solidifies the importance of having a solid foundation. If you're going into
660
661 133
662 00:25:05,700 ~-~-> 00:25:26,700
663 this with like Elliott Wave, okay, or harmonic patterns, that is a niche, it's a
664 gimmick. It's a stylized perception. It's not objective. It's not. It's
665
666 134
667 00:25:26,700 ~-~-> 00:25:38,700
668 subjective. This chapter for that is objective. Okay. And if you read it, you'll
669 you'll know exactly what I'm referring to what makes it objective, it's rooted
670
671 135
672 00:25:38,730 ~-~-> 00:25:52,530
673 in real market truths that are either present in the marketplace, or they're
674 not. It's binary. Whereas if we had a collection of people that traded harmonic
675
676 136
677 00:25:52,710 ~-~-> 00:26:01,890
678 patterns, or if we had a collection of people that traded Elliott Wave, they
679 would have a difference of opinion, I'm certain of it, if we were given them the
680
681 137
682 00:26:01,890 ~-~-> 00:26:16,830
683 same market. And that is, what highlights the, in my mind the lunacy in
684 following that kind of stuff. And don't get me wrong, I wasted years doing both
685
686 138
687 00:26:16,830 ~-~-> 00:26:25,650
688 of those things. Okay. I know about both of them. It isn't like I read a book.
689 And, you know, I never dabbled in it, I did all that stuff. I've done point and
690
691 139
692 00:26:25,650 ~-~-> 00:26:37,890
693 figure charts. I've done everything. I've done everything out there. And for as
694 far as trading goes. And honestly, all of it is flawed. Because it doesn't start
695
696 140
697 00:26:38,730 ~-~-> 00:26:50,790
698 on the basis of having real logic behind it, it's based on a pattern by itself,
699 they go in and looking for patterns or wave counts, versus understanding what it
700
701 141
702 00:26:50,790 ~-~-> 00:27:03,630
703 is that sets the market up for a move higher or lower, and where it should draw
704 to. Now, Larry doesn't do that. But Larry gives you the three primary rules and
705
706 142
707 00:27:03,630 ~-~-> 00:27:13,410
708 tools that he looks for that sets up these big million dollar maker. Well, I
709 shouldn't say million dollar maker, but fortune makers. Okay. What's a fortune
710
711 143
712 00:27:13,410 ~-~-> 00:27:25,860
713 to me, you know, if it makes $50,000, you know, that's a small fortune. You
714 know, I don't look at $50,000, the same way I did when I was in 1992. But if I
715
716 144
717 00:27:25,860 ~-~-> 00:27:35,400
718 lost $50,000, I'd, you know, I want it back. You know, it's it's a meaningful
719 amount of money to me. And to most of you listening, that's probably a
720
721 145
722 00:27:35,400 ~-~-> 00:27:44,460
723 significant amount of money as well, especially if you're a new student and or
724 never traded profitably, you would love to have that type of windfall victory in
725
726 146
727 00:27:44,460 ~-~-> 00:27:44,850
728 trading.
729
730 147
731 00:27:46,230 ~-~-> 00:27:58,560
732 If you're looking for a book, to give you a real solid foundation to understand
733 why a market should go up, or go down this chapter right here in this very book,
734
735 148
736 00:27:59,010 ~-~-> 00:28:10,530
737 I think that you should subscribe to what's been shown in that chapter. I don't
738 get anything for this. I don't get a kickback. Larry doesn't know I'm even doing
739
740 149
741 00:28:10,530 ~-~-> 00:28:23,880
742 it. And I mean, I've said this book many times over the last 10 years or 11
743 years now, talking about things from, you know, books that were influential, or
744
745 150
746 00:28:23,880 ~-~-> 00:28:38,430
747 books that were worth your time reading this the 1970s book 1970s, I was a child
748 at the time when this was published, and put in print. And it's still effective
749
750 151
751 00:28:38,430 ~-~-> 00:28:50,040
752 today. Why? Because it's rooted on things that work. And the man made money with
753 it, not a little bit of money, he made a million dollars. And then he did it
754
755 152
756 00:28:50,040 ~-~-> 00:28:58,740
757 again in 1987, for people that doubted and didn't believe he really made money
758 with it. And he won the World Cup Robbins contest for futures trading in 1987,
759
760 153
761 00:28:58,800 ~-~-> 00:29:17,250
762 and still holds 11,000% as the highest percentage gain in that contest history.
763 So if you take this information, and go back into market like this, you'll see a
764
765 154
766 00:29:17,250 ~-~-> 00:29:28,350
767 lot of those things that he's teaching exists in this market here. Okay. And
768 before we had this big extrapolated price move here. I told you in my community
769
770 155
771 00:29:28,350 ~-~-> 00:29:42,630
772 tab on my YouTube channel, right here a month ago, corn will be next. And I gave
773 you two fundamental reasons why okay. So, when it comes to fundamental data, I
774
775 156
776 00:29:42,630 ~-~-> 00:29:52,800
777 do consider it when it comes to livestock, like feeder cattle, live cattle, lean
778 hogs, they're all commodity markets. I look at it in regards to the grain
779
780 157
781 00:29:52,800 ~-~-> 00:30:03,690
782 reports. Apart from that, I do not consider fundamental data at all. But if I'm
783 trading agriculture, markets, which are commodity markets, as I just mentioned,
784
785 158
786 00:30:05,040 ~-~-> 00:30:16,050
787 then I'm going to consider it. And other markets like the food groups like
788 coffee, cocoa and sugar. If we go into if we look at coffee, this is kind of
789
790 159
791 00:30:16,050 ~-~-> 00:30:27,630
792 like the, the heart of the teaching here today. If you look at this price
793 fractal, it is something that I have taught many times with the medium of forex.
794
795 160
796 00:30:28,350 ~-~-> 00:30:36,930
797 And I'll give you a minute, pause the video before I put the annotations up. But
798 try to look at what you think you see in this price action. And then when you're
799
800 161
801 00:30:36,930 ~-~-> 00:30:50,460
802 ready, unpause the video and you'll see my annotations and discussion going
803 forward. Okay, we're going to add annotations now. Alright, so we're looking at
804
805 162
806 00:30:50,460 ~-~-> 00:31:03,750
807 coffee, okay, and there is a seasonal tendency for coffee to rally about the
808 second week or third week of July, I want you to consider the likelihood of mid
809
810 163
811 00:31:03,750 ~-~-> 00:31:15,180
812 July being a seasonal tendency for coffee to go higher. Now, think about what I
813 showed you on the dollar index. In July, it was going lower, it created an
814
815 164
816 00:31:15,180 ~-~-> 00:31:27,090
817 important high and it just fell out of bed went lower. That again sets the stage
818 for markets to go higher in the commodity market, just like it does in forex. So
819
820 165
821 00:31:27,090 ~-~-> 00:31:39,870
822 from having a macro perspective, and looking at things seasonally blending those
823 things together. It gives us framework to find really big moves, you don't have
824
825 166
826 00:31:39,870 ~-~-> 00:31:48,300
827 to be an intraday trader, you don't have to worry about the power three on a
828 daily candle. If you don't have time to do that. If you don't have the life
829
830 167
831 00:31:48,780 ~-~-> 00:31:57,540
832 framework that promotes that type of trading, you don't need to do it. Don't
833 feel like you have to be an intraday trader, don't feel that you have to be a
834
835 168
836 00:31:57,540 ~-~-> 00:32:03,390
837 short term trader. If you look at these types of price moves, and you think,
838 wow, you know, I could be a participant in something like that. That makes
839
840 169
841 00:32:03,390 ~-~-> 00:32:11,100
842 sense. I don't want to have to be relying on making a decision each day buying
843 and selling, buying and selling, because that takes a certain type of
844
845 170
846 00:32:11,100 ~-~-> 00:32:22,890
847 personality that isn't really everyone's cup of tea. Now. I started with this
848 type of trading, swing trade position trading, I started that way. And it was
849
850 171
851 00:32:22,890 ~-~-> 00:32:31,980
852 like pulling teeth. I just couldn't endure it. I didn't want to deal with it, it
853 was too slow. Doesn't mean I can't do it. Technically, it just
854
855 172
856 00:32:31,980 ~-~-> 00:32:43,590
857 means I can't submit to it from a personality standpoint. But the analysis
858 concepts that I use, this helps me frame every type of trade that I'm
859
860 173
861 00:32:43,590 ~-~-> 00:32:53,700
862 comfortable with, which is day trading intraday and short term. That's my forte,
863 that's where I Excel. And I can find lots of those types of day trades, short
864
865 174
866 00:32:53,700 ~-~-> 00:33:02,850
867 term trades or swing trades intraday in the overall price model that's being
868 shown here. Now, what am I actually shown here? Well, if you look at the
869
870 175
871 00:33:03,720 ~-~-> 00:33:10,680
872 relative equal Highs over here, you know, this is a buy side liquidity pool and
873 the market will likely want to go back to that point, we also have a
874
875 176
876 00:33:10,680 ~-~-> 00:33:22,170
877 consolidation that leaves the consolidation comes back up to the consolidation
878 in here and drops lower. And another level of decline hits a important level 110
879
880 177
881 00:33:22,170 ~-~-> 00:33:31,380
882 rallies breaks the short term high here. So we have a shift in market structure.
883 So when the market comes back down into a bullish order block, which is this
884
885 178
886 00:33:31,380 ~-~-> 00:33:40,710
887 down close candle right there, we have an optimal trade entry. So we're using
888 the lowest low to the highest high, projecting that up, that gives us two and a
889
890 179
891 00:33:40,710 ~-~-> 00:33:57,750
892 half standard deviations. And above the buy sell liquidity pool. So that means
893 about $1.34 per pound for coffee as an upside objective back here in July, mid
894
895 180
896 00:33:57,750 ~-~-> 00:34:08,850
897 July. When the seasonal tendency for coffee is bullish, the market rallies up it
898 touches these relative equal highs sells off a little bit goes back into a
899
900 181
901 00:34:08,850 ~-~-> 00:34:20,010
902 bullish order block here. And we have an optimal trade entry that sends it up
903 again to a target above the buy sell liquidity pool resting at relative equal
904
905 182
906 00:34:20,010 ~-~-> 00:34:32,070
907 highs. So if you look at the total range, I'm gonna take this off here. If you
908 look at the total range from this run here to hear, you can't say that you would
909
910 183
911 00:34:32,070 ~-~-> 00:34:40,860
912 be a buyer here but you can assume that you're close to this area here not at
913 this very low at 101. Which is the best case area for a low and the best case
914
915 184
916 00:34:40,860 ~-~-> 00:35:02,160
917 area for an extra high is the 135 point 65. So inside this range, the best case
918 which is impossible, would be 34.65 handles, okay or $375 times 34.6, because
919
920 185
921 00:35:02,160 ~-~-> 00:35:14,790
922 the point value for coffee is $3.75 per point, and every handle, and what's the
923 handle from like, for instance, 134 to 135. That's one full handle that would be
924
925 186
926 00:35:14,790 ~-~-> 00:35:33,030
927 represented by $375. That's 100 points, or one handle price move. In this case,
928 the price moved $12,993.75 per contract. From here, to here. All of this is a
929
930 187
931 00:35:33,030 ~-~-> 00:35:46,710
932 market maker by model with a seasonal tendency, mid July, with the dollar index,
933 selling off in July, which we were looking for ourselves as my group was falling
934
935 188
936 00:35:46,710 ~-~-> 00:35:59,580
937 along. In this type of price move here is what I teach, I teach these types of
938 moves. I don't say buy here sell there, but I guide you, in every year, I take
939
940 189
941 00:35:59,580 ~-~-> 00:36:06,810
942 my students back in and say, Okay, this is the seasonal tendency, this is what
943 we were looking for. This is what he called in dollar index, it sets the tone
944
945 190
946 00:36:06,810 ~-~-> 00:36:18,480
947 for all these other markets, I point to the markets to have these potential
948 extrapolated price moves. And we've looked at corn, there's $5,000, we looked at
949
950 191
951 00:36:18,510 ~-~-> 00:36:33,480
952 soybeans, 20 $30,000. There, we have Bitcoin 30,000 points, I'm not sure what
953 that will equate to you in terms of dollars. But the these are moves that are
954
955 192
956 00:36:33,480 ~-~-> 00:36:47,130
957 not small, they're very significant, their major moves. And if your tools can
958 help you ferret out these types of price action moves every single year, this is
959
960 193
961 00:36:47,130 ~-~-> 00:36:58,920
962 where the majority of your focus should be. But you will not find them. If
963 you're just lazy going through the charts looking for any old pattern. For the
964
965 194
966 00:36:58,920 ~-~-> 00:37:07,050
967 pattern sake, you have to have the logic behind it. So notice what I've combined
968 here, I've combined a market maker by model, which is what I teach even on this
969
970 195
971 00:37:07,050 ~-~-> 00:37:18,030
972 YouTube channel for free. Big round number $1 per pound, for coffee, and I'll
973 let you go out to the higher timeframe charts, you can do that on your own, and
974
975 196
976 00:37:18,030 ~-~-> 00:37:31,740
977 see what $1 Mark looks like in hindsight. And so you can see a big support level
978 around there. And also, if you use the KC, let's just do it.
979
980 197
981 00:37:33,210 ~-~-> 00:37:47,490
982 Okay, see, and then use the front current month, uses my tacy number one
983 exclamation, you click on that. And you'll see that we have this down close
984
985 198
986 00:37:47,490 ~-~-> 00:38:00,090
987 candle. Prior to this run up, there's your order block, all it's done, was
988 worked off of that went right into here and created your optimal trade entry.
989
990 199
991 00:38:01,770 ~-~-> 00:38:15,870
992 And then in rally, now, you have to use the trading months contract when you're
993 looking at commodities, whereas this is just a cumulative chart of all of the
994
995 200
996 00:38:15,900 ~-~-> 00:38:28,860
997 nearby current front month contracts. Right now the current contract month for
998 coffee is March 2021. prior to March 21, it was December 2020. And then prior to
999
1000 201
1001 00:38:28,860 ~-~-> 00:38:37,950
1002 that it was September 2020. So these contracts expire in the commodity market.
1003 forex you don't have that issue, okay. But in futures or if you're trading
1004
1005 202
1006 00:38:37,950 ~-~-> 00:38:47,280
1007 commodity markets, you have to be aware of that. So if you're looking at over
1008 here, we don't have those pretty easy to see relative equal highs, like we see
1009
1010 203
1011 00:38:47,310 ~-~-> 00:38:48,840
1012 in the March contract.
1013
1014 204
1015 00:38:54,720 ~-~-> 00:39:05,970
1016 Here, see that. So you have to look at what's available in the price action. But
1017 you all know, the market maker by model, you understand the optimal trade entry,
1018
1019 205
1020 00:39:05,970 ~-~-> 00:39:15,750
1021 because that's the flagship pattern here in this channel. And you understand
1022 order blocks have introduced them publicly here. And we know that a run on
1023
1024 206
1025 00:39:15,750 ~-~-> 00:39:25,320
1026 relatively equal highs is the draw on liquidity. That's a standard procedure
1027 that I've taught very publicly here on this channel. And it's caught fire and
1028
1029 207
1030 00:39:25,320 ~-~-> 00:39:33,180
1031 everybody's talking about it now. That's wonderful. I just wished it the folks
1032 that were doing that would just make a reference and say, hey, look, you know, I
1033
1034 208
1035 00:39:33,180 ~-~-> 00:39:41,040
1036 picked this up from ICT and you'll get more respect for me by doing that. It
1037 doesn't mean go and take everything I have and teach it all over again. But I
1038
1039 209
1040 00:39:41,040 ~-~-> 00:39:50,850
1041 know that this was going to be popular when I gave it out. And it's unfortunate
1042 a lot of people trying to glory hound and take credit for something they didn't
1043
1044 210
1045 00:39:50,910 ~-~-> 00:40:03,720
1046 earn or work for. So these are pretty big moves. And every single year we have
1047 these types of moves. So you don't need one of these types of moves. Okay? I
1048
1049 211
1050 00:40:03,720 ~-~-> 00:40:19,380
1051 mean, people waited around for years for this to occur in here, I call it
1052 6002 20. And then change gears before 20 and said, No, it's not going to go. So
1053
1054 212
1055 00:40:19,380 ~-~-> 00:40:31,980
1056 at 19 seven, it says gonna go to 6000. And then from when we got to 6600 3000,
1057 and failed to be accurate there and went to like 3400, or 32, I can't recall
1058
1059 213
1060 00:40:31,980 ~-~-> 00:40:48,060
1061 exactly where it was. But the point is, is eventually dropped down to something
1062 in here. I'm not sure exactly what the low was. Yeah, 32 something or 3131 22 in
1063
1064 214
1065 00:40:48,060 ~-~-> 00:40:56,850
1066 there. And then we had this little run here in 2019. And everybody thought that
1067 was gonna run about here. I was like, No, I don't think it's gonna happen. And
1068
1069 215
1070 00:40:56,850 ~-~-> 00:41:10,200
1071 we tanked here during the pandemic. And then that extreme, set the stage for the
1072 low. And then from that point, all the way up to where we went to 42 something,
1073
1074 216
1075 00:41:11,010 ~-~-> 00:41:38,370
1076 or is it that 40 42,000? And that was it. And then we fell out of bed. So it
1077 dropped 10,000 points in short order. And here doesn't want to go lower. I don't
1078
1079 217
1080 00:41:38,370 ~-~-> 00:41:48,420
1081 know. To me, it doesn't have a seasonal tendency yet. So it doesn't fit this
1082 discussion. But I'm trying to draw a contrast. And please don't take this as me
1083
1084 218
1085 00:41:48,420 ~-~-> 00:41:56,760
1086 kicking sand in the face of crypto traders. Okay, I'm not doing that I've done
1087 in the past. Like, I'm not, I'm not trying to say I didn't do that in the past,
1088
1089 219
1090 00:41:56,760 ~-~-> 00:42:09,630
1091 because I did. But all I'm trying to remind you is that big market moves did
1092 weren't invented by crypto, okay, there are fortune Making Moves occurring every
1093
1094 220
1095 00:42:09,630 ~-~-> 00:42:20,280
1096 single year for those individuals that know how to find them. And that's why
1097 people like myself, used to have a lot of fun reading people saying that
1098
1099 221
1100 00:42:20,910 ~-~-> 00:42:31,050
1101 everybody else that isn't trading crypto can't catch big, huge windfall price
1102 moves like it created in 2017, and 2019. And now obviously, what we're seeing in
1103
1104 222
1105 00:42:31,050 ~-~-> 00:42:45,090
1106 2020, going into 2021. There's a way to find these big moves. And I gave you the
1107 foundation that I started with. Now, that's not all that I do. I've put a lot of
1108
1109 223
1110 00:42:45,090 ~-~-> 00:42:55,440
1111 structure on top of that foundation, that's unique to me. It's not like off,
1112 okay, it's not supply and demand. It's not all those things that people like to
1113
1114 224
1115 00:42:55,440 ~-~-> 00:43:04,710
1116 say it is because they want to use those those name tags when they're teaching
1117 my content. And you hear him saying order block, you hear him say breaker, these
1118
1119 225
1120 00:43:04,710 ~-~-> 00:43:15,720
1121 are terms I invented, I invented those terms. They're coined by me. So when I
1122 hear them, and if my students hear them right away, you know, you just know that
1123
1124 226
1125 00:43:15,720 ~-~-> 00:43:25,620
1126 this is a derivative of what I have been teaching. And it just it's offensive to
1127 see people do that, and not give credit where it's due. Because you didn't
1128
1129 227
1130 00:43:25,620 ~-~-> 00:43:42,990
1131 endure all the hardships, all the pain, the loss monetarily, family, friends,
1132 everything and sanity in many instances to get this. So hopefully, you can now
1133
1134 228
1135 00:43:43,020 ~-~-> 00:43:47,820
1136 think about how seasonal tendencies and I gave you one in this lesson here.
1137
1138 229
1139 00:43:49,440 ~-~-> 00:43:57,630
1140 Coffee is one that if you go back and look at your data, now here's what's going
1141 to happen, I'm only going to predict this, okay. You're going to hear in certain
1142
1143 230
1144 00:43:57,630 ~-~-> 00:44:08,880
1145 circles, if you are part of one that has the conversation of ICT coming up once
1146 in a while, they're going to go into the charts and they're gonna look for times
1147
1148 231
1149 00:44:08,880 ~-~-> 00:44:19,860
1150 where in July mid July, coffee didn't go up, it's going to go down. Well, you
1151 got to look at what the markets been doing ahead of July. If it's bullish going
1152
1153 232
1154 00:44:19,860 ~-~-> 00:44:33,270
1155 into July, that's your indication that this is a good strong seasonal tendency
1156 for coffee. And there are times where if you look at coffee and some of you're
1157
1158 233
1159 00:44:33,270 ~-~-> 00:44:46,050
1160 like I ain't never trading coffee, why is this guy keep talking about this, this
1161 market? If you look at coffee on a weekly chart, okay, and you can see we've had
1162
1163 234
1164 00:44:46,080 ~-~-> 00:44:55,350
1165 some spikes and such, okay, but you want to study go back as far as the data
1166 will permit it. But looking at all this right here. Is this market bullish or
1167
1168 235
1169 00:44:55,350 ~-~-> 00:45:07,290
1170 bearish? It's obviously bearish. So are you going to be likely to anticipate a
1171 mid July run higher in coffee in this instance, here's the thing it can happen,
1172
1173 236
1174 00:45:07,290 ~-~-> 00:45:19,950
1175 but it's most likely not going to happen. Okay, is that very clear for you? If
1176 the markets bullish, like it's been here, then in July There you go, there's
1177
1178 237
1179 00:45:19,950 ~-~-> 00:45:32,430
1180 July right there is going to run higher then. Now if you look at something
1181 that's bearish, it's fine. July in mid July. Now we get we have a little bit of
1182
1183 238
1184 00:45:32,430 ~-~-> 00:45:38,880
1185 a run, but look how fast it gives up the ghost and goes lower, you see that
1186 there's a difference between knowing what you're talking about and just trying
1187
1188 239
1189 00:45:38,880 ~-~-> 00:45:53,520
1190 to look for something to say it doesn't work. That's what trolls do. That's what
1191 critics do. Here's another area bearish July right here mid July. There. Okay.
1192
1193 240
1194 00:45:53,970 ~-~-> 00:46:01,500
1195 Ahead of that, is it bullish or bearish? It's been going lower. So as a seasonal
1196 tendency, likely to send coffee higher on that year? No. And look what happened.
1197
1198 241
1199 00:46:01,530 ~-~-> 00:46:19,380
1200 It fell out of bed even more. So if you look at a time when we had a break in
1201 market structure here, we have mid July, right there. Right there. It dropped a
1202
1203 242
1204 00:46:19,380 ~-~-> 00:46:29,670
1205 little bit and then dropped again. So it was a break in market structure. But it
1206 has it really made a bullish move. Not yet. It's still in transition in here.
1207
1208 243
1209 00:46:32,100 ~-~-> 00:46:45,540
1210 Same thing, we're going to go to a July. And that's last year. And there you go.
1211 So I'll counsel you to go back and look at all the times when coffee was
1212
1213 244
1214 00:46:45,540 ~-~-> 00:47:08,610
1215 bullish. And when it was bearish. Okay, here's a nice area where it's been
1216 bullish right. July, mid July, right there. Bam. Higher. Now, we had reached a
1217
1218 245
1219 00:47:08,610 ~-~-> 00:47:18,600
1220 level of inherent and I'll let you look at the higher timeframe charts, and
1221 study it, but here's July that year. And it rallies doesn't take up the high but
1222
1223 246
1224 00:47:18,600 ~-~-> 00:47:26,880
1225 that's a nice rally, but then it falls out of bed, because we hit an important
1226 level here. And I'll let you go back and look at what that is historically,
1227
1228 247
1229 00:47:27,030 ~-~-> 00:47:37,740
1230 using a monthly chart. And I'm really doing you a disservice by trying to go
1231 through some of them. I'm just giving you the argument that some of my critics,
1232
1233 248
1234 00:47:37,890 ~-~-> 00:47:48,420
1235 you know, the thumbs down crew, they like to thumbs down the video, the which I
1236 love. I love that because it makes me smile. Who can look at videos like this,
1237
1238 249
1239 00:47:48,570 ~-~-> 00:48:03,150
1240 where I'm literally giving you lottery ticket winning numbers that work over and
1241 over and over again. Okay, for free. I'm doing this for free. There's no sales
1242
1243 250
1244 00:48:03,150 ~-~-> 00:48:16,440
1245 pitch, you can join my mentorship now. I just love doing this. And if you like
1246 these kinds of lessons, and you find it useful to you, or inspiring, you just
1247
1248 251
1249 00:48:16,440 ~-~-> 00:48:24,090
1250 give it a thumbs up. It doesn't cost you anything, just click the thumbs up. And
1251 there it is, it's done. Why do I want that to happen? Because I want this
1252
1253 252
1254 00:48:24,090 ~-~-> 00:48:34,890
1255 channel to be bigger than it is. Because there's a lot of people out here on
1256 YouTube that are misinforming people with things that don't work. And the
1257
1258 253
1259 00:48:34,890 ~-~-> 00:48:39,600
1260 trading community could really use a breath of fresh air. And
1261
1262 254
1263 00:48:40,260 ~-~-> 00:48:48,750
1264 everybody that came into my mentorship, that's it, there's no more sales pitch.
1265 There's no more 2020 to 20 nothing, like I'm done. I'm trying to get all of
1266
1267 255
1268 00:48:48,750 ~-~-> 00:48:58,650
1269 mentorship teaching done. I'm getting all the payment stuff done. And then I'm
1270 going back to being who I was before 2016. In August when I started this
1271
1272 256
1273 00:48:58,650 ~-~-> 00:49:06,030
1274 mentorship doesn't mean I'm not going to continue with my mentorship group and
1275 give them private teachings. Just I don't want to be focusing on I just want to
1276
1277 257
1278 00:49:06,030 ~-~-> 00:49:13,860
1279 go back to doing it relax and have time to do like I'm doing here. If you
1280 couldn't afford the mentorship, just know that I'm still going to present
1281
1282 258
1283 00:49:14,010 ~-~-> 00:49:24,570
1284 lessons here. I'm not going to teach the same level. Obviously for those that
1285 join my mentorship. That would be unfair, and it'd be unreasonable. But there is
1286
1287 259
1288 00:49:24,570 ~-~-> 00:49:36,480
1289 a plethora of wisdom in these videos. And if you've only watched them one time,
1290 you didn't get it all. You have to go through it a few times and take notes and
1291
1292 260
1293 00:49:36,480 ~-~-> 00:49:45,840
1294 then study some charts and then you'll find out that you've seen something that
1295 if you go back and listen to the videos again, it'll mean more to you. And it'll
1296
1297 261
1298 00:49:45,840 ~-~-> 00:49:53,820
1299 feel just like a new video was given to you. And it's the same video I gave you
1300 from the beginning. It's just they're very dense. There's a lot of like this
1301
1302 262
1303 00:49:53,820 ~-~-> 00:50:03,210
1304 video, there's a lot of things and nuggets in it, that if you learn a little bit
1305 more with practice This, you will appreciate the things I've said that would
1306
1307 263
1308 00:50:03,210 ~-~-> 00:50:10,650
1309 otherwise have been glossed over by you by your attention and just not being
1310 dialed in. Because you don't know the importance of the things I'm saying. But
1311
1312 264
1313 00:50:10,650 ~-~-> 00:50:18,510
1314 for those individuals that have been a commodity trader, maybe some of you are
1315 futures traders, and you've traded commodity markets, and maybe you traded
1316
1317 265
1318 00:50:18,510 ~-~-> 00:50:30,210
1319 coffee before, and you never were aware of something like this, this is
1320 something that you can plan and predict months in advance. So when we get to
1321
1322 266
1323 00:50:30,210 ~-~-> 00:50:38,310
1324 July, if the markets been bullish, you can anticipate something like this
1325 unfolding. Now, obviously, it doesn't give you an entry pattern, it doesn't give
1326
1327 267
1328 00:50:38,310 ~-~-> 00:50:49,020
1329 you an exit pattern. It doesn't give you the stop loss. But I'm teaching you a
1330 foundational idea, which is important, you have to have an understanding of why
1331
1332 268
1333 00:50:49,020 ~-~-> 00:50:56,820
1334 a market should even be doing anything at all, just because you think you see
1335 something harmonic, or you think you see something that's an Elliott Wave based
1336
1337 269
1338 00:50:56,820 ~-~-> 00:51:07,530
1339 idea, or even a supply and demand idea doesn't mean anything by itself, just
1340 like an order block by itself means absolutely nothing, you have to have some
1341
1342 270
1343 00:51:07,530 ~-~-> 00:51:18,360
1344 context. And you can't get any better as a context than having a seasonal impact
1345 behind a market move that has happened historically over and over and over
1346
1347 271
1348 00:51:18,360 ~-~-> 00:51:29,490
1349 again. And you can see it, you can visually see it and coupling that when it's
1350 bullish. And there's lots of seasonal tendencies. There's other seasonal
1351
1352 272
1353 00:51:29,490 ~-~-> 00:51:39,150
1354 tendencies for coffee for it to go down specific times of the year. And there's
1355 other times when predisposed to go up to and the same premise, you go into it
1356
1357 273
1358 00:51:39,180 ~-~-> 00:51:49,350
1359 looking for what the market was bullish or bearish going into that specific
1360 seasonal tendency. And by blending that with market structure, and they'll be in
1361
1362 274
1363 00:51:49,350 ~-~-> 00:52:00,030
1364 a risk on or risk off environment that goes back to the dollar index. If you're,
1365 if you're expecting a buy signal in commodities, but you don't see a weaker
1366
1367 275
1368 00:52:00,030 ~-~-> 00:52:09,810
1369 dollar, you're probably looking at a market that isn't gonna pan out for you
1370 doesn't mean it's always like that, it just means that the probability has
1371
1372 276
1373 00:52:09,870 ~-~-> 00:52:23,580
1374 shifted to a very low probability in your favor. versus if you were expecting a
1375 move higher in a commodity market, and the dollar index was bearish. And you can
1376
1377 277
1378 00:52:23,580 ~-~-> 00:52:34,080
1379 see it going lower, then you have a risk on scenario, because dollar is going
1380 lower. And that other market, that would be in a normal perspective, it would be
1381
1382 278
1383 00:52:34,080 ~-~-> 00:52:43,860
1384 an inverse expectation. So dollar lower commodities higher. So there's this
1385 relationship of macro and I talked a little bit about that. And I'll take you to
1386
1387 279
1388 00:52:43,860 ~-~-> 00:53:01,110
1389 the post on my community tab. Now. This is the post I did today. And again,
1390 Today is January 12 2021. And I did a post like this earlier this morning. And I
1391
1392 280
1393 00:53:01,110 ~-~-> 00:53:11,460
1394 talked about the importance of using seasonal tendencies. And it's the the main
1395 thing I think everyone should try to focus on. Because there are specific times
1396
1397 281
1398 00:53:11,460 ~-~-> 00:53:23,190
1399 of the year that you should be focusing on one side of the marketplace, and not
1400 the other, it doesn't mean that you abandon the other side of the marketplace.
1401
1402 282
1403 00:53:23,490 ~-~-> 00:53:34,500
1404 Because what's really interesting, and I'm gonna finalize this video with this
1405 point. If there is a time when the market is seasonally bullish, you can look at
1406
1407 283
1408 00:53:34,500 ~-~-> 00:53:37,920
1409 the seasonal tendency as a way of timing
1410
1411 284
1412 00:53:37,980 ~-~-> 00:53:46,620
1413 the other direction because the markets find a way to punish those individuals
1414 that look for these types of patterns and that don't exist. And I'll say it like
1415
1416 285
1417 00:53:46,620 ~-~-> 00:53:55,200
1418 this. If you're bullish on the market, and the seasonal tendencies bullish in
1419 the market structure is bullish, then you have a high probability buy with the
1420
1421 286
1422 00:53:55,200 ~-~-> 00:54:09,720
1423 dollar being bearish. Okay. If you are bearish on a market and the market
1424 structure is bearish, and the dollar index is bullish, then you have high
1425
1426 287
1427 00:54:09,720 ~-~-> 00:54:21,840
1428 probability in your favor. If you see a bullish seasonal tendency, and we'll use
1429 coffee as an example here, if we have this seasonal tendency mid July, and the
1430
1431 288
1432 00:54:21,840 ~-~-> 00:54:37,380
1433 markets been bearish going into that mid July time period, we don't look for a
1434 buy, we would look for a short term rally to sell short into and then probably
1435
1436 289
1437 00:54:37,380 ~-~-> 00:54:47,940
1438 see a better price delivery on the downside as a result, because the seasonal
1439 tendency would not be there. And that gives us many times what I mentioned here,
1440
1441 290
1442 00:54:48,240 ~-~-> 00:54:59,130
1443 the departure from the norm in price action that tends to incite excitement in
1444 price action and opportunities. So it's far more important for you to know this
1445
1446 291
1447 00:54:59,160 ~-~-> 00:55:08,850
1448 then and then pattern, because it gives you the foundation to why a market
1449 should have a big move. Because if you're in trading or trying to get into
1450
1451 292
1452 00:55:08,850 ~-~-> 00:55:18,840
1453 trading just to get 10 pips 20 pips as a forex trader, okay? Or try to make 25
1454 pips as a weekly objective, which is what I kind of like teach people to aim for
1455
1456 293
1457 00:55:18,840 ~-~-> 00:55:27,120
1458 in the beginning, I think that's a reasonable objective. It's not high and
1459 lofty. It's something that I think that it could be easily obtained. And you
1460
1461 294
1462 00:55:27,120 ~-~-> 00:55:36,420
1463 could still make a career off of that, as crazy as it may sound. But I don't
1464 want you thinking that that's all you can do with what I give you here on this
1465
1466 295
1467 00:55:36,420 ~-~-> 00:55:44,880
1468 YouTube channel, you could literally turn this into whatever you want it to be,
1469 you want to be a big swing trader catching mega trades. This is one way of going
1470
1471 296
1472 00:55:44,880 ~-~-> 00:55:56,160
1473 into it. Now, notice, I didn't even talk about Commitment of Traders, you notice
1474 that? Did you also notice that I didn't talk about breakers or mitigation
1475
1476 297
1477 00:55:56,160 ~-~-> 00:56:07,260
1478 blocks, see going on referring to there, I have a lot of moving parts. But
1479 you're able to take what makes sense to you, that resonates with you, and say,
1480
1481 298
1482 00:56:07,260 ~-~-> 00:56:17,100
1483 Okay, I'm going to use these things that make up my model. But if it doesn't
1484 have things that are rooted in market truths, you're not going to see those
1485
1486 299
1487 00:56:17,100 ~-~-> 00:56:26,610
1488 things pan out for you. It doesn't make a difference. The buzzwords the cool
1489 little names, the things that you see me show you in your charts doesn't make a
1490
1491 300
1492 00:56:26,610 ~-~-> 00:56:41,160
1493 difference, unless it's rooted and founded in rooted into market truth. And what
1494 is the market truth. The markets will move based on a higher timeframe premise.
1495
1496 301
1497 00:56:42,150 ~-~-> 00:56:54,090
1498 And when we're referring to agricultural markets, like foods, and grains, they
1499 are fundamentally driven by supply and demand factors. Those markets have real
1500
1501 302
1502 00:56:54,120 ~-~-> 00:57:07,680
1503 supply and demand. Every other market out there is manipulated. commodities are
1504 a real market to has supply and demand factors that govern them. They are the
1505
1506 303
1507 00:57:07,710 ~-~-> 00:57:21,390
1508 world's grocery store. So they have a real value like corn is always going to be
1509 worth something. But your share of Tesla could be worth 02 years from now is
1510
1511 304
1512 00:57:21,390 ~-~-> 00:57:29,760
1513 crazy. That might sound I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. But Tesla
1514 stocks the shares, there's no real reason to think that there's value behind
1515
1516 305
1517 00:57:29,760 ~-~-> 00:57:42,000
1518 that, or that it would be in perpetuity worth something. It doesn't mean that
1519 but it's viewed that it has that value right now. But corn will never go to
1520
1521 306
1522 00:57:42,000 ~-~-> 00:57:55,740
1523 worthlessness. It's a food, it'll always have value. And in times of turmoil,
1524 and what I anticipate going forward, there's going to be a shortage of food. And
1525
1526 307
1527 00:57:55,740 ~-~-> 00:58:05,670
1528 that shortage of food is going to put so much supply and demand pressure on
1529 these grains. And that's why you're seeing these big extrapolated price moves.
1530
1531 308
1532 00:58:07,290 ~-~-> 00:58:16,290
1533 Why? Because it's fundamentally driven. So if you're looking for supply and
1534 demand, and you want to trade supply and demand, you can't find a better way of
1535
1536 309
1537 00:58:16,290 ~-~-> 00:58:28,080
1538 doing it then trading commodities, period. That's real, it's real supply and
1539 demand. There's no real supply and demand with a currency. It's all manipulated,
1540
1541 310
1542 00:58:28,710 ~-~-> 00:58:33,120
1543 and in kryptos manipulated to bottom line is this.
1544
1545 311
1546 00:58:34,470 ~-~-> 00:58:44,760
1547 Don't think that you have to worry about making money in these tiny little
1548 intraday fluctuations. The same tools and premise that I teach with these
1549
1550 312
1551 00:58:44,760 ~-~-> 00:58:59,670
1552 intraday can be applied to the larger daily charts. And if I would have just
1553 told you that this chart here for corn. If I told you that was a an hourly chart
1554
1555 313
1556 00:58:59,670 ~-~-> 00:59:11,280
1557 or a 15 minute chart and didn't tell you what market it was, you wouldn't have
1558 known any different because prices price. But knowing where these big moves come
1559
1560 314
1561 00:59:11,280 ~-~-> 00:59:21,840
1562 from and putting your neck on the line. I do that. And if I don't know what I'm
1563 talking about, I would fall on my face miserably. And you keep seeing me
1564
1565 315
1566 00:59:21,990 ~-~-> 00:59:33,150
1567 pointing to the next big moves, pointing to the next big news. Because I have
1568 almost 30 years of experience doing this. I don't want to steer you wrong. I
1569
1570 316
1571 00:59:33,150 ~-~-> 00:59:44,280
1572 don't want to see you fail. I'm inspired by your excitement and your enthusiasm.
1573 It motivates me. It keeps me going. Because it allows me to relive moments just
1574
1575 317
1576 00:59:44,280 ~-~-> 00:59:53,430
1577 like you're having right now. I went through that when you want to quit I went
1578 through that dozens of times. When you feel like you hit a homerun because you
1579
1580 318
1581 00:59:53,430 ~-~-> 01:00:04,320
1582 got more understanding and you can't sleep and you're excited. I've been there.
1583 I know what that feels like. It's amazing, but no body around us gonna
1584
1585 319
1586 01:00:04,320 ~-~-> 01:00:13,830
1587 understand that excitement. Because they think what you're doing or trying to
1588 learn is nonsense. It's a pipe dream to them. But I know I went through that I
1589
1590 320
1591 01:00:13,830 ~-~-> 01:00:23,940
1592 had all that adversity, and everyone around me saying the same things. It's a
1593 waste of time. Don't believe any of that. Don't listen to that stuff. Stop
1594
1595 321
1596 01:00:23,940 ~-~-> 01:00:33,540
1597 talking about what you're planning on doing, and just do it. Don't share your
1598 dreams with other people, because they're going to tell you don't bother who
1599
1600 322
1601 01:00:33,540 ~-~-> 01:00:45,660
1602 wants to hear that. So dig into your charts, dig into the videos that you find
1603 on this YouTube channel. start studying, make 2021 the year that you've framed
1604
1605 323
1606 01:00:45,690 ~-~-> 01:00:54,810
1607 out a model that makes sense to you doesn't have to have all the moving parts
1608 available. But something that makes sense to you. That's rooted in why a market
1609
1610 324
1611 01:00:54,810 ~-~-> 01:01:06,450
1612 should go up or down and where it should reach for logically, I teach that here
1613 on this YouTube channel. And if you put the time into studying it, I promise you
1614
1615 325
1616 01:01:06,450 ~-~-> 01:01:14,820
1617 will find something that you can't find elsewhere. And at least for free. So
1618 until Talk to you next time, be safe, and good luck and good trading.