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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-11-20 17:10
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Drunk Monkey 1.1 1 1
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3 ICT: Okay, folks, welcome back. And this is a brief lecture
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7 on intraday swing trading. And I'm gonna highlight a few
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11 things here that you can start to look for in your own price
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15 action study and look at past price swings. And you'll start
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19 seeing what I'm outlining here. So that we will develop your
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23 perception about smart money technique, or SMT. So, what is
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27 that? Well, when we look at price action in any timeframe,
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31 then we're only focusing on the one hour chart for this
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35 example, but it's applicable to all timeframes. When we look
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39 for key swings in the marketplace, invariably, the traders
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43 that are indoctrinated in trading, they will use
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47 oscillators, stochastic RSI, CCI MACD something to that
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51 effect. And while I don't subscribe to that view, I
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55 initially was thrusted into that myopic view of price
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59 action. I want to kind of stimulate your, your imagination
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63 on how you can just rely on price to give you that
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67 perception, that gives us the idea of divergence. Okay, I
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71 guess when I first started in the 90s, as soon as I saw
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75 stochastic indicator, and the books were saying, look, every
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79 time I made a higher high in price, and the stochastic
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83 failed to make a higher high and it diverged, it sold off?
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87 Well, naturally. That's the thing I was looking for all it
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91 was all along, I knew, that's when I saw that I was the
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95 thing I wanted. And then when I started trading in that in a
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99 Live account, it just kept going up, and up and up. So while
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103 there are times when indicators will flag a setup, the
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107 problem with that is the creators of these indicators and
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111 the authors and the promoters of them in their pet models or
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115 systems. They don't really go into a great detail on or at
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119 least not in the vein of accuracy. When do you When do you
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123 apply them to the chart accurately that that's, that's the
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127 thing that I discovered early on. That no real educator has
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131 the appropriate placement for these indicators, because
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135 they're relying on support and resistance in a classic
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139 sense. And then the overbought, oversold in the classic
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143 sense, and then applying the divergence. When it's like
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147 that, when you don't have an understanding of the narrative,
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151 like what market profile Are you trading in? Are you in a
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155 trending environment? Are you in a range bound environment
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159 and range bound environments? Generally, oscillators will do
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163 very well if you're looking at the trade divergence. But
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167 don't let me entice you into thinking that Okay, now he just
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171 gave us the invitation, start using indicators. Because if
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175 you're a student of mine, we shun all that stuff, because
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179 it's a distraction from the actual price itself. Because
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183 price will give you everything you need. The open high, low
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187 and close is all that is necessary. Smart Money,
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191 institutional order flow, the brains behind these price
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195 moves cannot hide their footprints, they cannot do it, it's
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199 impossible for them to do it. And I just want to put this in
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203 here as another little bullet point because I'm getting
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207 hammered by new students reaching out to me. And the common
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211 fear is if I'm teaching this, is it going to stop working?
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215 And let me just briefly speak on it for about a minute or
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219 two and then we'll go right into the heart of this lesson.
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223 Anything that I'm teaching, whether it be here or in my
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227 private mentorship, it is not going to change, okay, because
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231 it's rooted in the basis that the large order flows that
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235 exchange between the central banks, the large producers or
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239 creators of commodities. These entities are in lockstep with
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243 large fund traders. I'm not considered a large fund trader,
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247 I've traded large funds, but I'm not considered a large fund
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251 trader. So I'm not a Commercial trader, okay. And I'm not a
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255 large fund trader, in the sense that we look at Commitment
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259 of Traders data. So
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263 that relationship between these two parties the commercials,
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267 which will deem that as the central banks if we're gonna
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271 refer to currencies, okay, in deference to forex, so but
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275 it's not limited to forex, it's the same thing across your
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279 stock indices, everything. So because their marriage, okay
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283 and dance between the ebbs and flow of the marketplace, the
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287 commercials pair up with the large fund traders. And they're
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291 always diametrically opposed. So when the large fund traders
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295 are bullish, and they're buying long term trends, the
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299 commercial traders are providing that liquidity to be
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303 counterparty and they have deeper pockets, they can write
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307 out those long drawn out moves, because they understand that
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311 it's going to eventually revert back to the main. So if we
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315 apply that thought process to the question or concern that
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319 many of you have, it's going to stop working, it's not going
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323 to stop working. Because to say that means that large trade
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327 between commercial entities and large fund traders is going
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331 to disappear. And that's not going to happen. so badly if if
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335 that happens to disappear, if there's no large commercial
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339 producer of anything, or a central bank stops becoming a
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343 central bank, and they stop managing large funds, okay, then
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347 we have bigger problems to worry about. But as long as those
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351 two entities exist, the things I teach on, are never going
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355 to diminish, they're not going to stop working, and they're
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359 not going to fail, okay? It does not mean that you as the
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363 speculator will not interpret it incorrectly, because you
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367 are human, just like I'm human, I can make a mistake just as
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371 well as anyone else. So don't think that anything that I
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375 teach or have taught or will teach in the future, has an
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379 expiration date on it, because it doesn't. Alright, so with
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383 this lesson gonna talk on Well, if you've been a student of
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387 mine for a number of years, you are not going to be
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391 surprised by what I'm going to talk about. But I want to
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395 give you some framework to try to build in some perception
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399 of how you can go and look at price. Now everyone, everyone
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403 knows that my pet pairs are fiber and cable, which is euro
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407 dollar and British Pound versus US dollar. And I couple that
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411 with the dollar index. So that's my triad, I look at those
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415 three markets to get my bias, my analysis, my weekly profile
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419 I'm looking to trade in or my daily profile to day trade in.
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423 And I don't need to do anything else. So if I want to be a
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427 deviant, then I will trade dollar CAD, which in recent
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431 months have been really lackluster, I haven't had a lot of
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435 interest in that pair. But I will sometimes go to Australian
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439 dollar and or New Zealand dollar. But it requires something
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443 very dry in price action for a euro and cable for me to come
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447 out of those two pairs of find something else. And it's
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451 usually in instances where I'm really pushing hard, which is
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455 not a good thing to do. But because I'm an educator, I like
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459 to use examples outside of my two pet pairs. Because just
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463 like the question of will these things stop working? Because
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467 I'm teaching it on a large scale? No, that won't. But does
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471 it work in other pairs. And it makes me smile, because I
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475 used to think that way too. It only works on special
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479 markets. And it works on every pair and works on every asset
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483 class. Okay, so just understand what I'm sharing here. It's
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487 very powerful, but you need to study it and compare old
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491 price moves. And you'll really appreciate how strong it is.
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495 But we're looking at a range bound market here and without
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499 reaching for an oscillator, like stochastic MACD or RSI to
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503 look for overbought, oversold and divergence, we can look at
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507 just price action.
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511 We have equal Highs over here. So everyone in the retail
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515 universe is going to say hey, look, this is resistance. So
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519 therefore it's stopped here stopped here and traded lower.
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523 When it trades back up to what should happen. It should hit
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527 that level that imaginary level and it should go down. But
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531 it goes up a little bit higher. trades lower. starts to do
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535 the same thing here that it did here. So we're seeing equal
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539 highs. Equal highs or as I call them relative equal highs.
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543 So between this high in this high and this high in this high
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547 we can end participate by stops to form and start pulling.
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551 And the words start to collect or gather just above these
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555 highs, because traders that want to buy on a breakout, they
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559 think buying strength, like it broke out here, they have
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563 orders to trip them in the marketplace to go long. And their
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567 stop loss will be below some low down here. Or traders that
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571 have been looking at the idea that this is resistance. And
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575 now this is resistance, and they're trying to sell it,
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579 because I don't know about you. But when I first started
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583 trading, I believe that everybody that was making big money
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587 was selling tops and buying bottoms. And I soon found out
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591 that that's not true. They're buying after the move
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595 establishes itself and trades to a level that's highly
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599 probable. And they're getting the large portion in between
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603 the turning points. And it took a long time for me to get to
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607 that point where I was content with that, and I stopped
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611 chasing these endless pursuits of perfection. Now, it's not
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615 to say that my obsessive compulsive disorder, which is what
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619 I live with and wrestle with, doesn't flare up, and I look
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623 for certain things that is unreasonable for the average
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627 trader. But that's also been a blessing and not just a
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631 curse, because it's helped me pursue things that would
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635 otherwise would have never made its way into the community
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639 and analysis or technical analysis concepts. So when we look
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643 at these levels here, just understand that as it creates
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647 these relative equal highs, they are signatures that I teach
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651 my students to look for. Now, there are instances where
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655 trading above these levels, it goes right to it and then
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659 reverses. Other times, it's a continuation to go higher,
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663 that, again, is narrative that is not going to be within the
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667 scope of the teaching here. But you're going to be able to
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671 look back in your old trades. And maybe if you look at
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675 trades where you've lost, and it was stopped out or went the
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679 other way, you're going to discover you're probably trading
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683 counter to what I'm going to show you here. But
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687 there is a way of measuring divergence, okay, and the price
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691 action. And the way I do it is I put a closely correlated
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695 market with the market, I'm looking to trade, and I just
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699 overlay it. So Alright, so you start by having an underlying
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703 premise, what should the market be reacting to? Why should
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707 it be reacting to it, in the sense that it gives you a buy
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711 or sell scenario? In other words, what is your bias? What
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715 are you anticipating happening once price trades to a
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719 particular price level? Well, as I mentioned, here, we have
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723 Basilicata here and here, and the market trades up and then
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727 breaks down. Now there's two schools of thought here, you
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731 can be the trader that is down here buying and exits above
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735 these levels. And there's nothing wrong with that. Or you
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739 could be a trader that wants to trade above these levels
740
741 186
742 00:13:02,040 ~-~-> 00:13:06,330
743 here and look to go short. Now that might be a little
744
745 187
746 00:13:06,330 ~-~-> 00:13:08,340
747 frightening for you, especially if you're a new trader or
748
749 188
750 00:13:08,340 ~-~-> 00:13:12,510
751 new student, it feels uncomfortable, because the markets
752
753 189
754 00:13:12,510 ~-~-> 00:13:15,510
755 been going up. And your natural tendency is to believe that
756
757 190
758 00:13:15,510 ~-~-> 00:13:19,020
759 it's going to continue going up. And if you look at your
760
761 191
762 00:13:19,020 ~-~-> 00:13:22,650
763 trades that you lost money on, I guarantee you, especially
764
765 192
766 00:13:22,650 ~-~-> 00:13:26,730
767 if you're a new student, or a new trader, you were trying to
768
769 193
770 00:13:26,730 ~-~-> 00:13:30,120
771 buy something that has already been going up for a length of
772
773 194
774 00:13:30,120 ~-~-> 00:13:33,210
775 time. Okay, now, what's your buying, like in here thinking
776
777 195
778 00:13:33,210 ~-~-> 00:13:35,730
779 it's going to keep going up cuz it's a bull flag. We've
780
781 196
782 00:13:35,730 ~-~-> 00:13:38,250
783 already went above this. Suppose that resistance and
784
785 197
786 00:13:38,250 ~-~-> 00:13:41,130
787 refining some support level here, supposedly, and it starts
788
789 198
790 00:13:41,130 ~-~-> 00:13:45,060
791 to move higher, and you chase it. everyone's done that every
792
793 199
794 00:13:45,060 ~-~-> 00:13:51,210
795 single trader has always done that stupid mistake of chasing
796
797 200
798 00:13:51,210 ~-~-> 00:13:55,050
799 price in some silly early stage of their development. They
800
801 201
802 00:13:55,050 ~-~-> 00:13:58,020
803 did that everyone did that. There's no reason to feel silly,
804
805 202
806 00:13:58,200 ~-~-> 00:14:01,290
807 to the point where you beat yourself up about it. But it's
808
809 203
810 00:14:01,380 ~-~-> 00:14:03,510
811 something you got to smile about. Now look back saying, you
812
813 204
814 00:14:03,510 ~-~-> 00:14:06,090
815 know, I'm glad we don't do those things anymore. But if
816
817 205
818 00:14:06,090 ~-~-> 00:14:08,310
819 you're a new student, and you're still falling victim to
820
821 206
822 00:14:08,310 ~-~-> 00:14:09,750
823 that this lesson is going to give you a different
824
825 207
826 00:14:09,750 ~-~-> 00:14:13,740
827 perspective. And how to fight that tendency of chasing price
828
829 208
830 00:14:13,740 ~-~-> 00:14:18,330
831 because we don't like to buy above old highs. That's a rule
832
833 209
834 00:14:18,330 ~-~-> 00:14:23,040
835 right away in your notes you should have never buy above old
836
837 210
838 00:14:23,040 ~-~-> 00:14:25,890
839 highs and onwards if we just traded above old highs. We
840
841 211
842 00:14:25,890 ~-~-> 00:14:30,120
843 can't take new Long's there that they can't happen just as
844
845 212
846 00:14:30,120 ~-~-> 00:14:36,600
847 well. We can't sell short below old lows. We can't do that.
848
849 213
850 00:14:37,200 ~-~-> 00:14:40,620
851 Because above old highs, there's bias out liquidity that's
852
853 214
854 00:14:40,620 ~-~-> 00:14:45,930
855 buy stops. You're entering like the retail trader does. You
856
857 215
858 00:14:45,930 ~-~-> 00:14:49,620
859 have buy interest there. When we as institutionally minded
860
861 216
862 00:14:49,620 ~-~-> 00:14:54,450
863 traders are not looking at that. With the buying interest.
864
865 217
866 00:14:54,750 ~-~-> 00:14:58,530
867 We're either looking for it to offer a counterparty and
868
869 218
870 00:14:58,530 ~-~-> 00:15:01,890
871 we're going to sell short to those buyers. interests, or
872
873 219
874 00:15:01,890 ~-~-> 00:15:06,060
875 want to wait to see if it drops away from that level. And
876
877 220
878 00:15:06,060 ~-~-> 00:15:09,240
879 that's the more conservative approach. And there's nothing
880
881 221
882 00:15:09,240 ~-~-> 00:15:11,070
883 wrong with that either. And the way you would do that, and
884
885 222
886 00:15:11,070 ~-~-> 00:15:16,920
887 this is just one instance of how you can do it, you find a
888
889 223
890 00:15:16,920 ~-~-> 00:15:29,100
891 breaker, the breaker is essentially this high to that low in
892
893 224
894 00:15:29,100 ~-~-> 00:15:33,780
895 this low up to this higher high. Can you see that? So it's
896
897 225
898 00:15:33,780 ~-~-> 00:15:38,580
899 this pattern. So what you want to do is train your eyes to
900
901 226
902 00:15:38,580 ~-~-> 00:15:41,310
903 look at that last down closed candle, because that last down
904
905 227
906 00:15:41,310 ~-~-> 00:15:48,960
907 close candle is the actual new future resistance level. It's
908
909 228
910 00:15:49,380 ~-~-> 00:15:54,600
911 not ambiguous. It's not a question of which low do I use
912
913 229
914 00:15:54,600 ~-~-> 00:15:58,230
915 here, because every one of these lows it in some way, shape
916
917 230
918 00:15:58,230 ~-~-> 00:16:02,010
919 or form, educator or a teacher will say, it's this one, it's
920
921 231
922 00:16:02,010 ~-~-> 00:16:07,350
923 that one. The fact that we had this run higher clearing
924
925 232
926 00:16:07,740 ~-~-> 00:16:12,300
927 these highs, this particular candle, right did that one down
928
929 233
930 00:16:12,300 ~-~-> 00:16:15,600
931 close candle, I mean, take this out, move it away just one
932
933 234
934 00:16:15,600 ~-~-> 00:16:17,670
935 little bit. Alright, so you can see the heavy down closed
936
937 235
938 00:16:17,670 ~-~-> 00:16:21,990
939 candle there. That candle is the actual bearish ICT breaker.
940
941 236
942 00:16:23,580 ~-~-> 00:16:29,130
943 When market trades below that low, we wait for the trade
944
945 237
946 00:16:29,130 ~-~-> 00:16:32,640
947 back up into it. Once it trades back up into it, then you
948
949 238
950 00:16:32,640 ~-~-> 00:16:37,350
951 could look for to trade to what the low that formed prior to
952
953 239
954 00:16:37,350 ~-~-> 00:16:39,930
955 this retracement. That in itself
956
957 240
958 00:16:40,350 ~-~-> 00:16:46,590
959 is a complete trading model. By itself, it is all one of you
960
961 241
962 00:16:46,800 ~-~-> 00:16:49,680
963 out here listening to me is all that you're ever going to
964
965 242
966 00:16:49,680 ~-~-> 00:16:53,850
967 need to do in trading. And you can find this pattern on five
968
969 243
970 00:16:53,850 ~-~-> 00:16:58,110
971 minute charts, 15 minute charts, for our charts, eight hour
972
973 244
974 00:16:58,110 ~-~-> 00:17:01,740
975 charts, daily charts, weekly charts, monthly charts. And you
976
977 245
978 00:17:01,740 ~-~-> 00:17:07,200
979 can frame that whole model on the timeframe in duration that
980
981 246
982 00:17:07,200 ~-~-> 00:17:10,380
983 you would like to trade in relative to that timeframe. If
984
985 247
986 00:17:10,380 ~-~-> 00:17:13,500
987 you want a lot of setups, you can trade them on a 15 minute,
988
989 248
990 00:17:14,730 ~-~-> 00:17:19,140
991 multiple times a week on a 15 minute chart, it's not going
992
993 249
994 00:17:19,140 ~-~-> 00:17:24,000
995 to offer a huge amount of pips because it's framed on this
996
997 250
998 00:17:24,000 ~-~-> 00:17:27,660
999 movement here. And you're selling short at a logical level.
1000
1001 251
1002 00:17:28,800 ~-~-> 00:17:31,860
1003 And you're going to take profits below the low that foreigns
1004
1005 252
1006 00:17:31,860 ~-~-> 00:17:37,350
1007 prior to that return to the breaker. Okay, so once this
1008
1009 253
1010 00:17:37,350 ~-~-> 00:17:41,790
1011 occurs, once you go below this low, you're out, you're done.
1012
1013 254
1014 00:17:42,600 ~-~-> 00:17:46,500
1015 Or if you have framed this whole thing, on the basis that
1016
1017 255
1018 00:17:46,500 ~-~-> 00:17:49,890
1019 it's a little bit longer term setup, then you can take off
1020
1021 256
1022 00:17:49,890 ~-~-> 00:17:53,730
1023 some portion, I don't know, I don't want to say too much
1024
1025 257
1026 00:17:53,730 ~-~-> 00:17:56,040
1027 here and try to drive too much of your decision making
1028
1029 258
1030 00:17:56,040 ~-~-> 00:17:59,820
1031 process. But you could say, say take off half, okay, or more
1032
1033 259
1034 00:17:59,820 ~-~-> 00:18:03,210
1035 than half below this low as it trades below it. And then you
1036
1037 260
1038 00:18:03,210 ~-~-> 00:18:06,630
1039 leave a stop that's reasonable locking in something, then
1040
1041 261
1042 00:18:06,630 ~-~-> 00:18:10,020
1043 you let the remainder trade. And if it can go lower, you'll
1044
1045 262
1046 00:18:10,020 ~-~-> 00:18:12,930
1047 be able to participate in that and then keep scaling out as
1048
1049 263
1050 00:18:12,930 ~-~-> 00:18:18,000
1051 it keeps going lower. But initially, when you first start to
1052
1053 264
1054 00:18:18,000 ~-~-> 00:18:20,580
1055 look for things like this, you want to try to take all of
1056
1057 265
1058 00:18:20,580 ~-~-> 00:18:23,910
1059 your profit here because you want to train yourself to feel
1060
1061 266
1062 00:18:23,910 ~-~-> 00:18:28,560
1063 comfortable, engaging number one, and then clearing the
1064
1065 267
1066 00:18:28,560 ~-~-> 00:18:35,220
1067 trade with a profit banking banking completely. If you see
1068
1069 268
1070 00:18:35,220 ~-~-> 00:18:39,180
1071 this pattern in hindsight, and you study you want to print
1072
1073 269
1074 00:18:39,240 ~-~-> 00:18:42,330
1075 out or at least screen capture and save these in your
1076
1077 270
1078 00:18:42,330 ~-~-> 00:18:45,330
1079 electronic journal. Okay, so every one of you in this
1080
1081 271
1082 00:18:45,360 ~-~-> 00:18:49,110
1083 community should have a study journal, if you just watch my
1084
1085 272
1086 00:18:49,110 ~-~-> 00:18:52,170
1087 videos, or if you just watch my videos and just go to your
1088
1089 273
1090 00:18:52,170 ~-~-> 00:18:56,010
1091 charts and look and don't make any annotations, don't screen
1092
1093 274
1094 00:18:56,010 ~-~-> 00:18:59,310
1095 capture anything, you're wasting your time. You clearly are
1096
1097 275
1098 00:18:59,310 ~-~-> 00:19:01,920
1099 wasting your time and you're not gonna be able to develop in
1100
1101 276
1102 00:19:02,310 ~-~-> 00:19:09,150
1103 you're looking at ICT is forex Netflix? And listen. That's
1104
1105 277
1106 00:19:09,150 ~-~-> 00:19:12,450
1107 not equivalent to learning how to do it yourself. You have
1108
1109 278
1110 00:19:12,450 ~-~-> 00:19:15,840
1111 to train yourself. And that only happens by practicing and
1112
1113 279
1114 00:19:15,840 ~-~-> 00:19:20,280
1115 putting the work into it. But what about in these relative
1116
1117 280
1118 00:19:20,280 ~-~-> 00:19:24,810
1119 equal highs? What can we see to anticipate these turning
1120
1121 281
1122 00:19:24,810 ~-~-> 00:19:30,990
1123 points? Well, you can go to the Compare tab. Put in this
1124
1125 282
1126 00:19:30,990 ~-~-> 00:19:34,170
1127 pair here is the New Zealand dollar. So a closely correlated
1128
1129 283
1130 00:19:34,170 ~-~-> 00:19:42,930
1131 pair would be Aussie dollar Alright, so here's the
1132
1133 284
1134 00:19:42,930 ~-~-> 00:19:47,310
1135 Australian dollar. And I want you to look at how price we
1136
1137 285
1138 00:19:47,310 ~-~-> 00:19:50,520
1139 had these relative equal highs. The market trades higher and
1140
1141 286
1142 00:19:50,520 ~-~-> 00:19:54,060
1143 look even the Australian dollars making higher highs. See
1144
1145 287
1146 00:19:54,060 ~-~-> 00:19:59,070
1147 all this this commutative line. That's basically the price
1148
1149 288
1150 00:19:59,070 ~-~-> 00:20:02,010
1151 action for me Take this away as you can see it, that's
1152
1153 289
1154 00:20:02,010 ~-~-> 00:20:05,190
1155 essentially the price action for Ozzy versus the US dollar.
1156
1157 290
1158 00:20:06,120 ~-~-> 00:20:12,030
1159 Now, if we put New Zealand price back on it, look at how the
1160
1161 291
1162 00:20:12,030 ~-~-> 00:20:16,500
1163 high in New Zealand went higher here. But look at the highs
1164
1165 292
1166 00:20:16,590 ~-~-> 00:20:21,090
1167 comparably. In the Australian dollar, it was lower on par,
1168
1169 293
1170 00:20:21,180 ~-~-> 00:20:26,400
1171 you see that? That is my SMT divergence, okay, or smart
1172
1173 294
1174 00:20:26,400 ~-~-> 00:20:29,940
1175 money technique or smart money tool. However, when usable
1176
1177 295
1178 00:20:29,970 ~-~-> 00:20:33,780
1179 spend always been abbreviated as SMT. There's a lot of
1180
1181 296
1182 00:20:33,780 ~-~-> 00:20:36,360
1183 people on Instagram, a lot of people on the internet that's
1184
1185 297
1186 00:20:36,360 ~-~-> 00:20:40,920
1187 created supposedly courses around it. And they'll show you
1188
1189 298
1190 00:20:40,920 ~-~-> 00:20:45,390
1191 examples, but they don't ever have the narrative ahead of
1192
1193 299
1194 00:20:45,540 ~-~-> 00:20:48,420
1195 the curve, where they're looking for the SMT divergence
1196
1197 300
1198 00:20:48,420 ~-~-> 00:20:51,750
1199 before it happens. Like you never see them do a video where
1200
1201 301
1202 00:20:51,780 ~-~-> 00:20:55,860
1203 they use it before it forms. And then the trade goes there.
1204
1205 302
1206 00:20:56,100 ~-~-> 00:20:59,850
1207 It's always this perfect excuse of in hindsight, okay, but
1208
1209 303
1210 00:21:00,120 ~-~-> 00:21:02,790
1211 when you first learn how to do it, or look for it,
1212
1213 304
1214 00:21:02,820 ~-~-> 00:21:06,120
1215 obviously, like anything else, you have to see it in
1216
1217 305
1218 00:21:06,120 ~-~-> 00:21:08,310
1219 hindsight, and this is how I'm teaching you how to look for
1220
1221 306
1222 00:21:08,310 ~-~-> 00:21:15,690
1223 it. There are several examples of SMT divergence per week.
1224
1225 307
1226 00:21:16,500 ~-~-> 00:21:18,930
1227 And if you drop into 15 minute time frames, you get a lot
1228
1229 308
1230 00:21:18,930 ~-~-> 00:21:21,810
1231 more of them. And in five minute charts, you get, again, a
1232
1233 309
1234 00:21:21,810 ~-~-> 00:21:24,870
1235 lot more of them. But just because there's a divergence
1236
1237 310
1238 00:21:24,870 ~-~-> 00:21:28,710
1239 between the relationships of the highs, like here's the
1240
1241 311
1242 00:21:28,710 ~-~-> 00:21:32,970
1243 higher high in New Zealand, and the lower high in Aussie
1244
1245 312
1246 00:21:32,970 ~-~-> 00:21:36,360
1247 dollar. Just because it does that
1248
1249 313
1250 00:21:38,220 ~-~-> 00:21:42,630
1251 doesn't necessarily mean there's going to be a trade, you
1252
1253 314
1254 00:21:42,630 ~-~-> 00:21:45,930
1255 have to have, like I was showing you moments ago, before I
1256
1257 315
1258 00:21:45,960 ~-~-> 00:21:50,760
1259 included the Australian dollar overlay is you have these
1260
1261 316
1262 00:21:50,790 ~-~-> 00:21:53,400
1263 understandings that the buy side liquidity is going to be
1264
1265 317
1266 00:21:53,400 ~-~-> 00:21:57,810
1267 tapped. Now, you may not know that it's going to go up here
1268
1269 318
1270 00:21:58,020 ~-~-> 00:22:01,650
1271 and reverse, you don't need to know that. Okay, that's the
1272
1273 319
1274 00:22:01,680 ~-~-> 00:22:04,470
1275 benefit of having the understanding of my breaker pattern,
1276
1277 320
1278 00:22:05,340 ~-~-> 00:22:09,060
1279 you are just going to simply wait. And believe me,
1280
1281 321
1282 00:22:10,200 ~-~-> 00:22:12,960
1283 initially, you look at these types of trades here and say,
1284
1285 322
1286 00:22:12,960 ~-~-> 00:22:15,930
1287 Wow, I want to sell up here. And I want to get out down
1288
1289 323
1290 00:22:15,930 ~-~-> 00:22:19,950
1291 here, I want to sell here and get out down here. And okay,
1292
1293 324
1294 00:22:19,950 ~-~-> 00:22:23,490
1295 that's fine. But you have to graduate into that, no one's
1296
1297 325
1298 00:22:23,610 ~-~-> 00:22:25,920
1299 going to just step out here in trading, watch a couple
1300
1301 326
1302 00:22:25,920 ~-~-> 00:22:29,790
1303 videos or read a book, or go to a seminar, buy course, and
1304
1305 327
1306 00:22:29,790 ~-~-> 00:22:32,340
1307 go out there and start doing that it just doesn't happen.
1308
1309 328
1310 00:22:32,370 ~-~-> 00:22:37,890
1311 You have to really train yourself gradually modularly to get
1312
1313 329
1314 00:22:37,890 ~-~-> 00:22:40,770
1315 to that point. And the easiest training wheels to get to
1316
1317 330
1318 00:22:40,770 ~-~-> 00:22:43,950
1319 that is using the breaker pattern, that means learn to
1320
1321 331
1322 00:22:43,950 ~-~-> 00:22:47,640
1323 anticipate this high forming and then reject, but don't
1324
1325 332
1326 00:22:47,640 ~-~-> 00:22:51,810
1327 trade that yet. Once it breaks down, you know, all you're
1328
1329 333
1330 00:22:51,810 ~-~-> 00:22:53,760
1331 going to do is wait for this candle to get traded back up to
1332
1333 334
1334 00:22:54,420 ~-~-> 00:22:59,910
1335 right here. Once it trades back up into the breaker, you're
1336
1337 335
1338 00:22:59,910 ~-~-> 00:23:05,760
1339 going to frame a short that has the stop loss above the
1340
1341 336
1342 00:23:05,760 ~-~-> 00:23:10,170
1343 breaker candle. You have to have closed candle in here,
1344
1345 337
1346 00:23:10,200 ~-~-> 00:23:13,680
1347 that's a bearish order block, a close candle a closed
1348
1349 338
1350 00:23:13,680 ~-~-> 00:23:18,060
1351 candle, so your stop has to be above this candle. Because
1352
1353 339
1354 00:23:18,060 ~-~-> 00:23:23,730
1355 you're comparing the order block with the location of the
1356
1357 340
1358 00:23:23,730 ~-~-> 00:23:26,850
1359 breaker, the order block gives you a little bit higher, yes,
1360
1361 341
1362 00:23:27,180 ~-~-> 00:23:30,840
1363 doesn't have to be a big stop. But as it trades up into this
1364
1365 342
1366 00:23:30,840 ~-~-> 00:23:33,120
1367 level, you're going to be looking for a stop loss above
1368
1369 343
1370 00:23:33,120 ~-~-> 00:23:35,760
1371 that. And then you don't have to worry about it. If you get
1372
1373 344
1374 00:23:35,760 ~-~-> 00:23:37,710
1375 stopped out, you get stopped out you did it wrong. It's a
1376
1377 345
1378 00:23:37,710 ~-~-> 00:23:40,080
1379 wrong selection on the trade. And there's no reason for you
1380
1381 346
1382 00:23:40,080 ~-~-> 00:23:42,330
1383 to going out there trying to avoid every losing trade.
1384
1385 347
1386 00:23:42,600 ~-~-> 00:23:45,510
1387 That's also a problem with new traders because I did that
1388
1389 348
1390 00:23:45,510 ~-~-> 00:23:48,180
1391 stuff too. You're going to lose, okay, there's no reason for
1392
1393 349
1394 00:23:48,180 ~-~-> 00:23:52,320
1395 you to worry about losing if you have a sound model. And
1396
1397 350
1398 00:23:52,320 ~-~-> 00:23:57,330
1399 this is a sound model like this is the complete model. You
1400
1401 351
1402 00:23:57,330 ~-~-> 00:23:59,730
1403 don't need to do anything else. But look for these types of
1404
1405 352
1406 00:23:59,730 ~-~-> 00:24:04,230
1407 setups. And they form weekly, every single week, this
1408
1409 353
1410 00:24:04,230 ~-~-> 00:24:08,880
1411 pattern forms, but you have to know what you're looking for.
1412
1413 354
1414 00:24:08,880 ~-~-> 00:24:10,200
1415 And the only way you're gonna know what you're looking for
1416
1417 355
1418 00:24:10,200 ~-~-> 00:24:14,760
1419 is by repetitive study, taking snapshots of your own charts
1420
1421 356
1422 00:24:14,820 ~-~-> 00:24:17,910
1423 with your own annotations. And what's that mean? Like I have
1424
1425 357
1426 00:24:17,940 ~-~-> 00:24:20,790
1427 these little markers here. And maybe in these areas over
1428
1429 358
1430 00:24:20,790 ~-~-> 00:24:23,790
1431 here, you can put some additional notes like how many
1432
1433 359
1434 00:24:24,360 ~-~-> 00:24:26,970
1435 candles did it take to get up to this level here after it
1436
1437 360
1438 00:24:26,970 ~-~-> 00:24:31,500
1439 broke. Because when you see this breakdown like that, the
1440
1441 361
1442 00:24:31,500 ~-~-> 00:24:34,230
1443 first thing is I want to get right back to this this candle
1444
1445 362
1446 00:24:34,230 ~-~-> 00:24:37,470
1447 here if you understand my breaker and you don't necessarily
1448
1449 363
1450 00:24:37,470 ~-~-> 00:24:39,780
1451 know how to submit to the amount of time that can take
1452
1453 364
1454 00:24:39,780 ~-~-> 00:24:42,510
1455 place. So when you do your screen captures in your study
1456
1457 365
1458 00:24:42,510 ~-~-> 00:24:45,390
1459 journal, you want to record how much time it takes from the
1460
1461 366
1462 00:24:45,420 ~-~-> 00:24:48,660
1463 initiation of the setup which once it trades below this low
1464
1465 367
1466 00:24:49,170 ~-~-> 00:24:54,990
1467 here that sets the stage for okay now your setup is the next
1468
1469 368
1470 00:24:56,760 ~-~-> 00:25:02,760
1471 action point. Okay, the next process The natural order of
1472
1473 369
1474 00:25:03,330 ~-~-> 00:25:07,170
1475 the trade process. So this sets the stage, now you are in
1476
1477 370
1478 00:25:07,170 ~-~-> 00:25:09,570
1479 waiting mode, what are you waiting for it needs to trade
1480
1481 371
1482 00:25:09,570 ~-~-> 00:25:13,020
1483 back up into that candle. How long does it take to do that,
1484
1485 372
1486 00:25:13,530 ~-~-> 00:25:16,770
1487 because it takes several days to get to it. Because it's an
1488
1489 373
1490 00:25:16,770 ~-~-> 00:25:19,410
1491 hourly chart, sometimes it can happen within the same day.
1492
1493 374
1494 00:25:20,700 ~-~-> 00:25:26,220
1495 But until you appreciate him any varying examples, there's
1496
1497 375
1498 00:25:26,250 ~-~-> 00:25:31,320
1499 going to be you have to submit to that time. And it's real
1500
1501 376
1502 00:25:31,320 ~-~-> 00:25:36,990
1503 impatient. For a new trader, or as a new trader is
1504
1505 377
1506 00:25:36,990 ~-~-> 00:25:39,840
1507 impatient, I say that should say it like that, for the
1508
1509 378
1510 00:25:39,840 ~-~-> 00:25:43,890
1511 setup, and sometimes they just lose their mind, because they
1512
1513 379
1514 00:25:43,890 ~-~-> 00:25:45,840
1515 want to get in there and do it, they want to take the trade.
1516
1517 380
1518 00:25:46,380 ~-~-> 00:25:48,810
1519 But this is the benefit of going through your charts
1520
1521 381
1522 00:25:48,810 ~-~-> 00:25:51,630
1523 yourself and the markets that you'd like to follow. And
1524
1525 382
1526 00:25:51,630 ~-~-> 00:25:56,100
1527 you'll see by capturing examples like this, you'll be able
1528
1529 383
1530 00:25:56,100 ~-~-> 00:25:58,680
1531 to see how many opportunities have formed over a week or a
1532
1533 384
1534 00:25:58,680 ~-~-> 00:26:02,610
1535 month, and how much time it takes from when the setup is
1536
1537 385
1538 00:26:02,610 ~-~-> 00:26:07,350
1539 initiated to its actual formation? How much of a stoploss Do
1540
1541 386
1542 00:26:07,350 ~-~-> 00:26:10,800
1543 you need to use? And how much does it offer in terms of
1544
1545 387
1546 00:26:10,800 ~-~-> 00:26:12,660
1547 pips, so
1548
1549 388
1550 00:26:13,769 ~-~-> 00:26:18,959
1551 by itself, again, this is all some of you will ever require,
1552
1553 389
1554 00:26:19,169 ~-~-> 00:26:21,779
1555 you would never need to buy a course, you would never need
1556
1557 390
1558 00:26:21,779 ~-~-> 00:26:24,719
1559 to watch another ICT video, I know you're not gonna do that
1560
1561 391
1562 00:26:24,719 ~-~-> 00:26:27,059
1563 you're gonna keep watching videos. But the point is, is you
1564
1565 392
1566 00:26:27,059 ~-~-> 00:26:30,239
1567 don't need to do it. Okay, you'll be doing it just because
1568
1569 393
1570 00:26:30,239 ~-~-> 00:26:34,499
1571 you like it. But as far as knowing what to look for, for
1572
1573 394
1574 00:26:34,499 ~-~-> 00:26:38,339
1575 some of you, this is all you ever need. But the point is
1576
1577 395
1578 00:26:38,339 ~-~-> 00:26:41,699
1579 this, you have to look at the relationships, again, with
1580
1581 396
1582 00:26:41,789 ~-~-> 00:26:45,449
1583 correlated pairs, or correlated markets. The fact that the
1584
1585 397
1586 00:26:45,449 ~-~-> 00:26:48,719
1587 Australian dollar, okay, see how it's made that lower high
1588
1589 398
1590 00:26:48,719 ~-~-> 00:26:51,869
1591 here relative to this high, whereas the New Zealand dollar
1592
1593 399
1594 00:26:51,869 ~-~-> 00:26:55,859
1595 high here, it has a slightly higher high, whenever this
1596
1597 400
1598 00:26:55,859 ~-~-> 00:27:01,409
1599 occurs in price action, okay, this is indicating that
1600
1601 401
1602 00:27:01,409 ~-~-> 00:27:06,419
1603 there's a lot of selling going on in Australian dollar. The
1604
1605 402
1606 00:27:06,419 ~-~-> 00:27:09,899
1607 fact that the Australian dollar was not able to get back up,
1608
1609 403
1610 00:27:10,169 ~-~-> 00:27:13,319
1611 and trade above its old high like the New Zealand dollar did
1612
1613 404
1614 00:27:13,319 ~-~-> 00:27:18,809
1615 here, it's tipping its hand that these two pairs are likely
1616
1617 405
1618 00:27:18,809 ~-~-> 00:27:23,999
1619 to go down. Because they're closely correlated. If we see
1620
1621 406
1622 00:27:23,999 ~-~-> 00:27:28,229
1623 that the Australian dollar is having the lower high form, or
1624
1625 407
1626 00:27:28,229 ~-~-> 00:27:31,109
1627 it's failing to make that, then what that means to me as a
1628
1629 408
1630 00:27:31,109 ~-~-> 00:27:33,389
1631 trader is that we're running above these relative equal
1632
1633 409
1634 00:27:33,389 ~-~-> 00:27:37,469
1635 highs. And this is a fake out. This is just a run on stops,
1636
1637 410
1638 00:27:37,709 ~-~-> 00:27:41,459
1639 and anticipate a rejection or a reversal. And then you get
1640
1641 411
1642 00:27:41,459 ~-~-> 00:27:48,839
1643 it here. So the underlying, I guess, signature here is you
1644
1645 412
1646 00:27:48,839 ~-~-> 00:27:51,779
1647 want to look for relative equal highs, here in a
1648
1649 413
1650 00:27:51,779 ~-~-> 00:27:54,929
1651 consolidating market, and then look at a closely correlated
1652
1653 414
1654 00:27:54,929 ~-~-> 00:27:59,219
1655 asset, no words if, say, the candlestick chart portion of
1656
1657 415
1658 00:27:59,219 ~-~-> 00:28:03,749
1659 this example was British pound. And the red overlay was euro
1660
1661 416
1662 00:28:03,749 ~-~-> 00:28:08,039
1663 dollar. If that occurred here, the same would be expected.
1664
1665 417
1666 00:28:08,459 ~-~-> 00:28:12,179
1667 Okay. So euro dollar and cable are very closely correlated
1668
1669 418
1670 00:28:12,449 ~-~-> 00:28:14,909
1671 pairs, not all the time, sometimes there's a cracking
1672
1673 419
1674 00:28:14,909 ~-~-> 00:28:18,239
1675 correlation. But generally, they move pretty close to one
1676
1677 420
1678 00:28:18,239 ~-~-> 00:28:24,239
1679 pillar. When it doesn't exist like that, then you have
1680
1681 421
1682 00:28:24,239 ~-~-> 00:28:29,969
1683 trades in like euro pound, when you have the markets in
1684
1685 422
1686 00:28:29,969 ~-~-> 00:28:37,019
1687 consolidation as a whole, and we see this pattern here. This
1688
1689 423
1690 00:28:37,049 ~-~-> 00:28:41,189
1691 also indicates that we have a weak pair like Aussie dollar
1692
1693 424
1694 00:28:41,399 ~-~-> 00:28:45,209
1695 is showing us here. And you can combine that with a strong
1696
1697 425
1698 00:28:45,209 ~-~-> 00:28:49,649
1699 pair like in recent days, euro dollar, and then you can get
1700
1701 426
1702 00:28:49,919 ~-~-> 00:28:56,519
1703 a very strong setup for a buy in euro Ozzy. So it doesn't
1704
1705 427
1706 00:28:56,519 ~-~-> 00:29:00,659
1707 just limit to just giving you a turning point here, it shows
1708
1709 428
1710 00:29:00,659 ~-~-> 00:29:03,629
1711 you that this pet this pair of Aussie is underlying the
1712
1713 429
1714 00:29:03,629 ~-~-> 00:29:09,359
1715 week. And I gave my students and mentorship a cell example
1716
1717 430
1718 00:29:10,079 ~-~-> 00:29:13,799
1719 before it happened using this criteria here. And they're
1720
1721 431
1722 00:29:13,799 ~-~-> 00:29:17,309
1723 learning more about that set up that that was not exposed to
1724
1725 432
1726 00:29:17,309 ~-~-> 00:29:20,939
1727 them in my mentorship, but they're seeing more, you know,
1728
1729 433
1730 00:29:21,059 ~-~-> 00:29:28,049
1731 underlying narrative behind it. So using this idea, finding
1732
1733 434
1734 00:29:28,199 ~-~-> 00:29:32,999
1735 underlying the weak currencies and coupling it with a strong
1736
1737 435
1738 00:29:32,999 ~-~-> 00:29:37,589
1739 currency, we can do something like this, because the euro
1740
1741 436
1742 00:29:42,449 ~-~-> 00:29:46,829
1743 and I'll take this off. We don't need that. So here's euro,
1744
1745 437
1746 00:29:47,129 ~-~-> 00:29:51,539
1747 and you're always been trading pretty strong. If we look at
1748
1749 438
1750 00:29:51,539 ~-~-> 00:29:56,279
1751 that relationship of Aussie dollar being weak, when euro has
1752
1753 439
1754 00:29:56,279 ~-~-> 00:30:00,749
1755 been strong, that's going to cause a really nice up I move
1756
1757 440
1758 00:30:00,779 ~-~-> 00:30:05,759
1759 for Euro Aussie, but the run on euro dollar has been
1760
1761 441
1762 00:30:05,789 ~-~-> 00:30:11,819
1763 essentially 130 hundred 40 pips. That's not bad. But for you
1764
1765 442
1766 00:30:11,819 ~-~-> 00:30:15,809
1767 freaks out there. When you want to do a couple more legs in
1768
1769 443
1770 00:30:15,809 ~-~-> 00:30:18,449
1771 your analysis, you'll be able to find times when the Euro
1772
1773 444
1774 00:30:18,449 ~-~-> 00:30:23,339
1775 Ozzy cross pair will have an outperformance where it moves,
1776
1777 445
1778 00:30:24,119 ~-~-> 00:30:31,259
1779 one to 300 plus pips. So the question is this, are you going
1780
1781 446
1782 00:30:31,259 ~-~-> 00:30:34,709
1783 to be comfortable trading? A major, which is like euro
1784
1785 447
1786 00:30:34,709 ~-~-> 00:30:38,789
1787 dollar pound dollar? The Aussie dollar New Zealand dollar
1788
1789 448
1790 00:30:38,849 ~-~-> 00:30:44,909
1791 dollar CAD dollar? yen? Are you going to be comfortable
1792
1793 449
1794 00:30:44,909 ~-~-> 00:30:49,589
1795 trading those majors and not participate in these big moves?
1796
1797 450
1798 00:30:51,209 ~-~-> 00:30:55,499
1799 settling for reasonable 100 pips or so? Or do you feel like
1800
1801 451
1802 00:30:55,499 ~-~-> 00:30:58,469
1803 you have to be this type of trader, because that's the next
1804
1805 452
1806 00:30:58,469 ~-~-> 00:31:00,629
1807 level in your development. Once you understand what I'm
1808
1809 453
1810 00:31:00,629 ~-~-> 00:31:05,519
1811 showing you in prior discussion with between New Zealand
1812
1813 454
1814 00:31:05,519 ~-~-> 00:31:09,629
1815 dollar and Aussie dollar, the the highest form of analysis
1816
1817 455
1818 00:31:09,629 ~-~-> 00:31:13,499
1819 is to find the strongest leadership and institutional
1820
1821 456
1822 00:31:13,499 ~-~-> 00:31:15,329
1823 sponsorship and all the process.
1824
1825 457
1826 00:31:16,019 ~-~-> 00:31:20,219
1827 But the crosses only have these pair move like this, when we
1828
1829 458
1830 00:31:20,219 ~-~-> 00:31:24,719
1831 are in an underlying consolidation as a whole. Like, look at
1832
1833 459
1834 00:31:24,719 ~-~-> 00:31:27,719
1835 the Dollar Index, the dollar index is consolidating, as
1836
1837 460
1838 00:31:27,719 ~-~-> 00:31:30,359
1839 doesn't mean it's not moving on lower timeframes, but it's
1840
1841 461
1842 00:31:30,359 ~-~-> 00:31:33,329
1843 still in a consolidation. So when they put a stranglehold on
1844
1845 462
1846 00:31:33,329 ~-~-> 00:31:37,949
1847 dollar, your mind as a trader should start thinking, Okay,
1848
1849 463
1850 00:31:38,369 ~-~-> 00:31:41,639
1851 we are in an area or environment that the crosses are going
1852
1853 464
1854 00:31:41,639 ~-~-> 00:31:45,629
1855 to have the big moves. There's all kinds of these educators
1856
1857 465
1858 00:31:45,629 ~-~-> 00:31:49,049
1859 out there to tell you, this is how you use this and you find
1860
1861 466
1862 00:31:49,049 ~-~-> 00:31:51,449
1863 a bigger move here. And you go here and you do that, and
1864
1865 467
1866 00:31:51,449 ~-~-> 00:31:55,469
1867 it's fresh in this and tetanus Look, this is the only thing
1868
1869 468
1870 00:31:55,469 ~-~-> 00:32:01,289
1871 the algorithm does. If the dollar is in consolidation, okay,
1872
1873 469
1874 00:32:01,289 ~-~-> 00:32:06,239
1875 if it's in an intervention range, okay. If the feds holding
1876
1877 470
1878 00:32:06,659 ~-~-> 00:32:11,999
1879 dollar in a narrow range, you immediately start going
1880
1881 471
1882 00:32:11,999 ~-~-> 00:32:15,419
1883 through and finding the strong and the weak pairs using what
1884
1885 472
1886 00:32:15,419 ~-~-> 00:32:18,269
1887 I showed you here by comparing and contrasting their
1888
1889 473
1890 00:32:18,269 ~-~-> 00:32:21,479
1891 relative equal highs or relative equal lows, and in which
1892
1893 474
1894 00:32:21,479 ~-~-> 00:32:24,869
1895 one's the strongest, and then start looking for other pairs
1896
1897 475
1898 00:32:24,929 ~-~-> 00:32:28,739
1899 that are stronger. Okay, and then find a strong versus a
1900
1901 476
1902 00:32:28,739 ~-~-> 00:32:32,759
1903 weak currency. And you'll get this type of move here. Now,
1904
1905 477
1906 00:32:32,789 ~-~-> 00:32:38,039
1907 it's said that when markets are in carry trade mode, where
1908
1909 478
1910 00:32:38,639 ~-~-> 00:32:45,029
1911 one currency is giving a stronger or higher interest rate,
1912
1913 479
1914 00:32:45,419 ~-~-> 00:32:49,439
1915 so if you buy that one, and sell basically, because it's
1916
1917 480
1918 00:32:49,439 ~-~-> 00:32:53,309
1919 what we're doing, we when we buy euro dollar, we're buying
1920
1921 481
1922 00:32:53,309 ~-~-> 00:32:56,069
1923 euros and selling dollars. In essence, that's what you're
1924
1925 482
1926 00:32:56,069 ~-~-> 00:33:01,139
1927 essentially doing. But if you look at a currency that has a
1928
1929 483
1930 00:33:01,139 ~-~-> 00:33:04,109
1931 higher interest rate, and it happens to be the currency that
1932
1933 484
1934 00:33:04,109 ~-~-> 00:33:08,369
1935 you're buying, and you're selling short, a currency that has
1936
1937 485
1938 00:33:08,369 ~-~-> 00:33:13,709
1939 the lower interest rate, the common idea is that that is a
1940
1941 486
1942 00:33:13,709 ~-~-> 00:33:17,309
1943 carry trade idea. And it should keep going up because of the
1944
1945 487
1946 00:33:17,339 ~-~-> 00:33:20,969
1947 underlying interest rate differential. And that is not
1948
1949 488
1950 00:33:20,969 ~-~-> 00:33:24,449
1951 always true. And a perfect example, it's looking at Euro
1952
1953 489
1954 00:33:24,449 ~-~-> 00:33:30,269
1955 dollar this year. So if you go back to euro dollar, and look
1956
1957 490
1958 00:33:30,269 ~-~-> 00:33:36,029
1959 at it on a daily chart, back in here, this right here this
1960
1961 491
1962 00:33:36,029 ~-~-> 00:33:39,629
1963 very day here in my mentorship, and folks that are joining
1964
1965 492
1966 00:33:39,629 ~-~-> 00:33:43,259
1967 in in January, you can go back and listen to my archives,
1968
1969 493
1970 00:33:43,259 ~-~-> 00:33:45,899
1971 and you'll hear me talk about how if I was making the market
1972
1973 494
1974 00:33:45,899 ~-~-> 00:33:48,659
1975 for euro dollar, I would just take it below this low here,
1976
1977 495
1978 00:33:48,839 ~-~-> 00:33:51,029
1979 and then run it above this high here. And eventually we were
1980
1981 496
1982 00:33:51,029 ~-~-> 00:33:57,209
1983 looking for these over here. And we got all that here. But
1984
1985 497
1986 00:33:57,659 ~-~-> 00:33:59,879
1987 I'm not here to beat my chest. I know some of you don't like
1988
1989 498
1990 00:33:59,879 ~-~-> 00:34:04,439
1991 that. But my point is this all through here, if you look at
1992
1993 499
1994 00:34:04,439 ~-~-> 00:34:08,669
1995 the interest rate differential, you would not have expected
1996
1997 500
1998 00:34:08,879 ~-~-> 00:34:13,289
1999 this type of move just on the basis of interest rates. Now
2000
2001 501
2002 00:34:13,289 ~-~-> 00:34:15,959
2003 there are times when you want to be using that interest rate
2004
2005 502
2006 00:34:15,989 ~-~-> 00:34:21,179
2007 differential where it's a good time to be a buyer with
2008
2009 503
2010 00:34:21,539 ~-~-> 00:34:25,649
2011 pairing up a strong interest rate, economy and currency
2012
2013 504
2014 00:34:25,949 ~-~-> 00:34:30,329
2015 versus a low interest rate or weaker economy. And you'll
2016
2017 505
2018 00:34:30,329 ~-~-> 00:34:35,399
2019 have just really easy trading. We have not had that
2020
2021 506
2022 00:34:35,399 ~-~-> 00:34:39,299
2023 environment this year because of the illness that's been
2024
2025 507
2026 00:34:39,299 ~-~-> 00:34:41,519
2027 making its way around the world. And that's all I'm gonna
2028
2029 508
2030 00:34:41,519 ~-~-> 00:34:46,289
2031 say about that. Okay, but it that has upset a lot of the
2032
2033 509
2034 00:34:46,289 ~-~-> 00:34:50,459
2035 normal see in the marketplace. And I have learned a great
2036
2037 510
2038 00:34:50,459 ~-~-> 00:34:55,079
2039 deal in this environment, not new trading techniques. But
2040
2041 511
2042 00:34:55,079 ~-~-> 00:34:59,699
2043 I've learned a lot about myself as a trader and I'm more
2044
2045 512
2046 00:34:59,999 ~-~-> 00:35:03,659
2047 risk averse. I've been more risk averse this year than I've
2048
2049 513
2050 00:35:03,689 ~-~-> 00:35:07,739
2051 ever been. And not just because of the illness, but because
2052
2053 514
2054 00:35:07,739 ~-~-> 00:35:09,929
2055 it's an election year, all the turmoil and stuff that's
2056
2057 515
2058 00:35:09,929 ~-~-> 00:35:13,919
2059 going on. And it just, you can't rely on in this
2060
2061 516
2062 00:35:13,919 ~-~-> 00:35:16,769
2063 environment, I've seen that you can't rely on your typical
2064
2065 517
2066 00:35:16,769 ~-~-> 00:35:21,449
2067 classical ideas, okay? Because there's people out here that
2068
2069 518
2070 00:35:21,479 ~-~-> 00:35:24,779
2071 have videos on YouTube, and they're selling the idea that,
2072
2073 519
2074 00:35:24,779 ~-~-> 00:35:27,719
2075 you know, the interest rate in this markets better. And I'm
2076
2077 520
2078 00:35:27,719 ~-~-> 00:35:30,149
2079 going to hold this and hold this, okay, you're going to hold
2080
2081 521
2082 00:35:30,149 ~-~-> 00:35:33,869
2083 this trade, it's going to clean your clock. Because at some
2084
2085 522
2086 00:35:33,869 ~-~-> 00:35:38,309
2087 point, the dollar did have a higher interest rate. But it
2088
2089 523
2090 00:35:38,309 ~-~-> 00:35:42,719
2091 was declined, it dropped. And the Euro doesn't have
2092
2093 524
2094 00:35:42,719 ~-~-> 00:35:48,299
2095 anything, it's like it's nothing. So you can't rely on this
2096
2097 525
2098 00:35:48,299 ~-~-> 00:35:52,019
2099 type of movement with that type of technique or analysis
2100
2101 526
2102 00:35:52,019 ~-~-> 00:35:55,649
2103 concept. And it's it doesn't, it doesn't bode well, for
2104
2105 527
2106 00:35:55,649 ~-~-> 00:35:58,739
2107 expecting the type of moves here. You need to rely on other
2108
2109 528
2110 00:35:58,739 ~-~-> 00:36:04,139
2111 things. And I relied on in front of my mentorship, the just
2112
2113 529
2114 00:36:04,139 ~-~-> 00:36:05,009
2115 pure
2116
2117 530
2118 00:36:05,130 ~-~-> 00:36:08,580
2119 reading of dollar. Okay. And there was periods throughout
2120
2121 531
2122 00:36:08,580 ~-~-> 00:36:12,480
2123 this year that I was uncertain. To the point where I said, I
2124
2125 532
2126 00:36:12,690 ~-~-> 00:36:15,570
2127 don't know, I really don't know. And it took a week or two
2128
2129 533
2130 00:36:15,570 ~-~-> 00:36:19,350
2131 for us to get more information. And then once it showed us
2132
2133 534
2134 00:36:19,350 ~-~-> 00:36:22,860
2135 then I was back in sync. And I had a good, a good run with
2136
2137 535
2138 00:36:22,920 ~-~-> 00:36:25,440
2139 everything lining up with what I was expecting. But you
2140
2141 536
2142 00:36:25,440 ~-~-> 00:36:29,910
2143 can't. And you shouldn't have a lot of expectation,
2144
2145 537
2146 00:36:30,840 ~-~-> 00:36:34,440
2147 especially this year, because this is not your a typical
2148
2149 538
2150 00:36:34,440 ~-~-> 00:36:38,370
2151 year like this has been a very challenging year for me, like
2152
2153 539
2154 00:36:39,360 ~-~-> 00:36:44,460
2155 November 5 will be 28 years I've been doing this. And I
2156
2157 540
2158 00:36:44,460 ~-~-> 00:36:51,690
2159 don't ever recall the level of difficulty that this year has
2160
2161 541
2162 00:36:52,590 ~-~-> 00:36:56,940
2163 shown me like I felt like I did when I first started trading
2164
2165 542
2166 00:36:57,810 ~-~-> 00:37:01,050
2167 many times throughout this year, because I had so many
2168
2169 543
2170 00:37:01,050 ~-~-> 00:37:04,320
2171 conflicting signals. And while that's not a problem, because
2172
2173 544
2174 00:37:04,320 ~-~-> 00:37:06,870
2175 usually if I have a conflicting signal, then I'm just going
2176
2177 545
2178 00:37:06,870 ~-~-> 00:37:10,530
2179 to sit on my hands and do nothing. It's no problem. But
2180
2181 546
2182 00:37:10,530 ~-~-> 00:37:13,920
2183 because I'm obligated to give my interpretation, and I have
2184
2185 547
2186 00:37:13,920 ~-~-> 00:37:18,240
2187 to cosign every single time I sit down with my students, I
2188
2189 548
2190 00:37:18,240 ~-~-> 00:37:20,910
2191 have to make a decision. Whereas I normally wouldn't have to
2192
2193 549
2194 00:37:20,910 ~-~-> 00:37:22,860
2195 worry about it, I wouldn't be doing anything. And I'm
2196
2197 550
2198 00:37:22,860 ~-~-> 00:37:25,710
2199 comfortable with that. And that's a normal thing. That's a
2200
2201 551
2202 00:37:25,710 ~-~-> 00:37:28,350
2203 position and it wins all the time, you don't suffer any
2204
2205 552
2206 00:37:28,350 ~-~-> 00:37:34,380
2207 loss. But this year, there were a couple times where I was
2208
2209 553
2210 00:37:34,380 ~-~-> 00:37:39,300
2211 forced to make a determination gun to my head type scenario.
2212
2213 554
2214 00:37:40,080 ~-~-> 00:37:44,610
2215 And a couple of times I was wrong. I'm still okay for the
2216
2217 555
2218 00:37:44,610 ~-~-> 00:37:49,470
2219 year a more way more than I'm wrong. I'm right more times
2220
2221 556
2222 00:37:49,470 ~-~-> 00:37:54,930
2223 than that. But it's still surprising to see how the things I
2224
2225 557
2226 00:37:54,930 ~-~-> 00:37:57,900
2227 teach still hold up well, even in this environment. So
2228
2229 558
2230 00:37:57,900 ~-~-> 00:38:00,330
2231 that's what I meant when I said I learned a lot. There's
2232
2233 559
2234 00:38:00,360 ~-~-> 00:38:05,550
2235 also a greater appreciation for risk for me now. And it may
2236
2237 560
2238 00:38:05,550 ~-~-> 00:38:08,610
2239 be me getting older, and maybe the fact that I have more
2240
2241 561
2242 00:38:08,610 ~-~-> 00:38:13,020
2243 people under my wing, and I feel more compelled to talk
2244
2245 562
2246 00:38:13,020 ~-~-> 00:38:16,020
2247 about risk and managing it better. And I guess it's a good
2248
2249 563
2250 00:38:16,020 ~-~-> 00:38:20,700
2251 thing all around anyway. But I went down this rabbit trail.
2252
2253 564
2254 00:38:21,150 ~-~-> 00:38:23,430
2255 And I'm thinking about as I'm talking now. And it was not
2256
2257 565
2258 00:38:23,550 ~-~-> 00:38:26,580
2259 inside the scope of the discussion. But I just felt like
2260
2261 566
2262 00:38:26,580 ~-~-> 00:38:32,880
2263 including it. I don't know why. So we're we're here. But if
2264
2265 567
2266 00:38:33,720 ~-~-> 00:38:38,760
2267 you start looking at closely correlated markets, okay, and
2268
2269 568
2270 00:38:38,760 ~-~-> 00:38:43,050
2271 you start comparing that a good way of using this approach
2272
2273 569
2274 00:38:43,050 ~-~-> 00:38:45,960
2275 would be if you look at commodity markets, okay, and you
2276
2277 570
2278 00:38:45,960 ~-~-> 00:38:51,120
2279 look at the metals, like LOOK AT Gold, look at silver.
2280
2281 571
2282 00:38:53,040 ~-~-> 00:38:56,160
2283 Generally, you'll see some type of information like what I
2284
2285 572
2286 00:38:56,160 ~-~-> 00:39:01,320
2287 just showed you here. High Grade copper tend to be a
2288
2289 573
2290 00:39:01,320 ~-~-> 00:39:03,930
2291 different animal altogether, palladium and platinum. Again,
2292
2293 574
2294 00:39:03,930 ~-~-> 00:39:06,300
2295 same thing, they have a little bit of a different thing.
2296
2297 575
2298 00:39:06,660 ~-~-> 00:39:09,660
2299 Back in the 90s. In the 80s, they were a little bit closer
2300
2301 576
2302 00:39:09,720 ~-~-> 00:39:12,660
2303 and the way they traded. And you could use this tool really
2304
2305 577
2306 00:39:12,660 ~-~-> 00:39:17,040
2307 easy. But there's been the separation between the metals. It
2308
2309 578
2310 00:39:17,040 ~-~-> 00:39:19,320
2311 works really well with the grain market. So if you're an
2312
2313 579
2314 00:39:19,320 ~-~-> 00:39:22,920
2315 agricultural trader that trades commodities, I use this
2316
2317 580
2318 00:39:22,950 ~-~-> 00:39:27,660
2319 concept to outline soybeans that moved over $10,000 per
2320
2321 581
2322 00:39:27,660 ~-~-> 00:39:30,840
2323 contract this year. I outlined the setup, outline the
2324
2325 582
2326 00:39:30,840 ~-~-> 00:39:33,960
2327 framework outline where it was going, and it was using what
2328
2329 583
2330 00:39:33,960 ~-~-> 00:39:37,770
2331 I just showed you here tonight. Now $10,000 per contract in
2332
2333 584
2334 00:39:37,770 ~-~-> 00:39:43,920
2335 soybeans is a pretty respectable move. And while corn and
2336
2337 585
2338 00:39:43,950 ~-~-> 00:39:50,730
2339 wheat went up in sympathy, the leadership was soybeans. And
2340
2341 586
2342 00:39:50,730 ~-~-> 00:39:52,860
2343 that was the market I mentioned that was the market I said
2344
2345 587
2346 00:39:52,860 ~-~-> 00:39:54,600
2347 was going to lead that was a market that was going to
2348
2349 588
2350 00:39:54,600 ~-~-> 00:39:59,610
2351 outperform and it did, so it's not limited to forex. Okay,
2352
2353 589
2354 00:39:59,610 ~-~-> 00:40:02,790
2355 so when you Have this perception of price and reading it
2356
2357 590
2358 00:40:02,820 ~-~-> 00:40:05,820
2359 like an X ray view. Behind the scenes, I didn't reach for
2360
2361 591
2362 00:40:05,820 ~-~-> 00:40:09,570
2363 any indicators here. The only thing I was looking at was
2364
2365 592
2366 00:40:10,590 ~-~-> 00:40:13,110
2367 reading price how it was going above old highs. So there's a
2368
2369 593
2370 00:40:13,110 ~-~-> 00:40:15,420
2371 little leg line segment trend lines, okay, they're there
2372
2373 594
2374 00:40:15,420 ~-~-> 00:40:17,910
2375 just for you to understand what I'm focusing on. But they're
2376
2377 595
2378 00:40:17,910 ~-~-> 00:40:22,530
2379 not on my charts, when I'm trading. The overlay is just
2380
2381 596
2382 00:40:22,530 ~-~-> 00:40:26,010
2383 another market. That's not an indicator, I'm just making it
2384
2385 597
2386 00:40:26,070 ~-~-> 00:40:29,910
2387 show up as an overlay and aligned format. And there it is.
2388
2389 598
2390 00:40:30,450 ~-~-> 00:40:34,770
2391 Now, you might not like let's go back to Aussie, or actually
2392
2393 599
2394 00:40:34,800 ~-~-> 00:40:35,610
2395 New Zealand.
2396
2397 600
2398 00:40:41,580 ~-~-> 00:40:46,110
2399 Okay, and well, I can see hourly chart. And we'll add again,
2400
2401 601
2402 00:40:48,090 ~-~-> 00:40:49,020
2403 the Aussie dollar.
2404
2405 602
2406 00:40:54,570 ~-~-> 00:40:59,550
2407 Okay. Now, you might not like this line, being here. And as
2408
2409 603
2410 00:40:59,550 ~-~-> 00:41:03,360
2411 you move it around, it might shift a little bit, see how it
2412
2413 604
2414 00:41:03,360 ~-~-> 00:41:07,110
2415 does that. One of the things you can do on trading view,
2416
2417 605
2418 00:41:07,110 ~-~-> 00:41:10,560
2419 which I just recently found myself, which I thought was
2420
2421 606
2422 00:41:10,560 ~-~-> 00:41:12,840
2423 interesting, if you go here over here, and you click on
2424
2425 607
2426 00:41:12,840 ~-~-> 00:41:15,720
2427 this, and you type in or not type and click on the histogram
2428
2429 608
2430 00:41:17,190 ~-~-> 00:41:23,730
2431 over here and then change and change the opacity. Okay, and
2432
2433 609
2434 00:41:23,730 ~-~-> 00:41:27,720
2435 there you go. To me, I like this, I actually like this
2436
2437 610
2438 00:41:27,720 ~-~-> 00:41:30,540
2439 better than the line, because you can see the divergence,
2440
2441 611
2442 00:41:30,930 ~-~-> 00:41:35,400
2443 the high, lower high in Ozzy, high, higher high in New
2444
2445 612
2446 00:41:35,400 ~-~-> 00:41:41,010
2447 Zealand, you can see the low, higher low and Ozzy, low,
2448
2449 613
2450 00:41:41,040 ~-~-> 00:41:44,760
2451 lower low and New Zealand. If you look at a marketplace like
2452
2453 614
2454 00:41:44,760 ~-~-> 00:41:48,060
2455 this, and you anticipate the market reaching for liquidity
2456
2457 615
2458 00:41:48,060 ~-~-> 00:41:51,540
2459 below lows, and you see this pattern here that diverges,
2460
2461 616
2462 00:41:51,930 ~-~-> 00:41:54,660
2463 what that is actually showing and why this works, because
2464
2465 617
2466 00:41:54,660 ~-~-> 00:41:57,690
2467 you're probably new and you're listening to me saying what
2468
2469 618
2470 00:41:57,690 ~-~-> 00:42:00,570
2471 is what is the point of this? What is the fact that it's not
2472
2473 619
2474 00:42:00,570 ~-~-> 00:42:03,390
2475 making a higher high or failing to make a higher high? What
2476
2477 620
2478 00:42:03,390 ~-~-> 00:42:05,700
2479 is it indicating and was indicating when the Australian
2480
2481 621
2482 00:42:05,700 ~-~-> 00:42:08,310
2483 dollar is failing to make that lower low here, when the New
2484
2485 622
2486 00:42:08,310 ~-~-> 00:42:10,380
2487 Zealand dollar made a lower low than it did here? What does
2488
2489 623
2490 00:42:10,380 ~-~-> 00:42:15,540
2491 that indicating? That is the reason why I said in the
2492
2493 624
2494 00:42:15,540 ~-~-> 00:42:19,860
2495 beginning of this video, what I'm teaching you will never
2496
2497 625
2498 00:42:20,430 ~-~-> 00:42:24,240
2499 diminish, it will always be there because just like they
2500
2501 626
2502 00:42:24,240 ~-~-> 00:42:28,290
2503 were a lot of buying in Australian dollar here. And
2504
2505 627
2506 00:42:28,290 ~-~-> 00:42:33,540
2507 Australian dollar went higher. It led to a sympathy move on
2508
2509 628
2510 00:42:33,570 ~-~-> 00:42:36,810
2511 New Zealand dollar to it followed suit. But the crack and
2512
2513 629
2514 00:42:36,810 ~-~-> 00:42:40,620
2515 correlation between the two which we have a lower low in New
2516
2517 630
2518 00:42:40,620 ~-~-> 00:42:44,820
2519 Zealand and a higher low in Australian dollar. That's what
2520
2521 631
2522 00:42:44,820 ~-~-> 00:42:48,240
2523 we're seeing here. This is an SMP divergence that's bullish.
2524
2525 632
2526 00:42:49,140 ~-~-> 00:42:52,500
2527 What is it saying? It's saying that this currency, the
2528
2529 633
2530 00:42:52,500 ~-~-> 00:42:55,950
2531 Australian dollar is the stronger of the currency at that
2532
2533 634
2534 00:42:55,950 ~-~-> 00:43:00,570
2535 moment. And that this run below this low here on this low on
2536
2537 635
2538 00:43:00,600 ~-~-> 00:43:03,960
2539 New Zealand. This is a stock run. So you can feel confident
2540
2541 636
2542 00:43:04,170 ~-~-> 00:43:09,330
2543 buying below this low. Because you're buying up sell stops.
2544
2545 637
2546 00:43:10,620 ~-~-> 00:43:15,240
2547 But you can use this idea and say okay, at this moment here,
2548
2549 638
2550 00:43:15,450 ~-~-> 00:43:20,700
2551 Australian dollar is strong. At that moment, you would go
2552
2553 639
2554 00:43:20,700 ~-~-> 00:43:23,700
2555 through the same cycling through your currencies to find a
2556
2557 640
2558 00:43:23,730 ~-~-> 00:43:29,070
2559 weak currency. And then find a core a correlated forex pair
2560
2561 641
2562 00:43:29,280 ~-~-> 00:43:32,880
2563 that meets that criteria where all z is strong and a weaker
2564
2565 642
2566 00:43:32,880 ~-~-> 00:43:38,070
2567 currency is paired up with it. And the underlying
2568
2569 643
2570 00:43:38,070 ~-~-> 00:43:42,420
2571 bullishness of Australian dollar would lead that currency in
2572
2573 644
2574 00:43:42,420 ~-~-> 00:43:45,150
2575 this directional premise. Anyway, I gave you a lot in this
2576
2577 645
2578 00:43:45,150 ~-~-> 00:43:48,930
2579 video. And I probably confused a great deal of you. But
2580
2581 646
2582 00:43:48,930 ~-~-> 00:43:52,620
2583 that's not what I was intending to do. I love doing this. I
2584
2585 647
2586 00:43:52,620 ~-~-> 00:43:56,460
2587 love talking about the markets. I love teaching them I love
2588
2589 648
2590 00:43:57,030 ~-~-> 00:43:59,940
2591 tipping my hand and showing you all outside of my
2592
2593 649
2594 00:43:59,940 ~-~-> 00:44:04,740
2595 mentorship, things that you might not be thinking of. And I
2596
2597 650
2598 00:44:04,740 ~-~-> 00:44:07,710
2599 do talk about SMT in this YouTube channel. So don't think
2600
2601 651
2602 00:44:07,710 ~-~-> 00:44:11,370
2603 I'm dangling a carrot and saying you only have to learn this
2604
2605 652
2606 00:44:11,400 ~-~-> 00:44:15,450
2607 by going into my mentorship. That's not what I'm doing here.
2608
2609 653
2610 00:44:15,480 ~-~-> 00:44:20,310
2611 But I am drawing a contrast and you know, a basic
2612
2613 654
2614 00:44:21,750 ~-~-> 00:44:27,480
2615 differentiation between what we do and what is then provided
2616
2617 655
2618 00:44:27,480 ~-~-> 00:44:30,660
2619 here for free on YouTube because there's a big gap, okay,
2620
2621 656
2622 00:44:31,020 ~-~-> 00:44:34,230
2623 but you can find this. And clearly I just added another one
2624
2625 657
2626 00:44:34,230 ~-~-> 00:44:37,080
2627 to the library here, where you can go in and if the market
2628
2629 658
2630 00:44:37,080 ~-~-> 00:44:40,230
2631 is in consolidation, and I hope all of you can see that this
2632
2633 659
2634 00:44:40,230 ~-~-> 00:44:43,650
2635 isn't a range bound market. If you have a range bound market
2636
2637 660
2638 00:44:43,650 ~-~-> 00:44:48,450
2639 like this, this model works extremely well. And there are
2640
2641 661
2642 00:44:48,450 ~-~-> 00:44:52,140
2643 models that work well in trending models that you use the
2644
2645 662
2646 00:44:52,140 ~-~-> 00:44:56,910
2647 SMT for also, but this one I think is like the easiest one
2648
2649 663
2650 00:44:56,970 ~-~-> 00:45:00,540
2651 ground level entry level student just coming My YouTube
2652
2653 664
2654 00:45:00,540 ~-~-> 00:45:04,050
2655 channel, this is where they should start, okay, because if
2656
2657 665
2658 00:45:04,050 ~-~-> 00:45:07,710
2659 you're in a trending environment, it would be better for you
2660
2661 666
2662 00:45:07,710 ~-~-> 00:45:10,920
2663 not to reach for SMT when the market is trending, because
2664
2665 667
2666 00:45:10,920 ~-~-> 00:45:15,600
2667 it's going to have less likelihood of creating a setup for
2668
2669 668
2670 00:45:15,600 ~-~-> 00:45:18,630
2671 you to find it's easy to see where it's when it's range
2672
2673 669
2674 00:45:18,630 ~-~-> 00:45:24,750
2675 bound, it's easy to see a SMT divergence. But in final
2676
2677 670
2678 00:45:24,750 ~-~-> 00:45:25,170
2679 point,
2680
2681 671
2682 00:45:26,699 ~-~-> 00:45:30,389
2683 when the currencies have this relationship, where the
2684
2685 672
2686 00:45:30,389 ~-~-> 00:45:32,849
2687 Australian dollar was failing to make that lower low here
2688
2689 673
2690 00:45:32,879 ~-~-> 00:45:36,839
2691 and indicated, a higher low, at the time of the New Zealand
2692
2693 674
2694 00:45:36,839 ~-~-> 00:45:42,089
2695 dollar made this lower low, that's showing a lot of buying
2696
2697 675
2698 00:45:42,239 ~-~-> 00:45:45,719
2699 in Australian dollar. They're buying New Zealand dollar too
2700
2701 676
2702 00:45:45,719 ~-~-> 00:45:51,509
2703 clearly. But the fact that they're not always lockstep with
2704
2705 677
2706 00:45:51,509 ~-~-> 00:45:54,929
2707 one another, because if the markets were perfect, okay, if
2708
2709 678
2710 00:45:54,929 ~-~-> 00:45:57,479
2711 they were perfect, that means the Australian dollar would
2712
2713 679
2714 00:45:57,479 ~-~-> 00:46:00,149
2715 make a lower low here too. And then they would both go
2716
2717 680
2718 00:46:00,149 ~-~-> 00:46:03,149
2719 higher. And then right here on this higher high on New
2720
2721 681
2722 00:46:03,149 ~-~-> 00:46:05,879
2723 Zealand, relative to this high here, the Australian dollar
2724
2725 682
2726 00:46:05,879 ~-~-> 00:46:09,449
2727 should have made a higher high there as well. And if we just
2728
2729 683
2730 00:46:09,449 ~-~-> 00:46:10,439
2731 go to Australian dollar,
2732
2733 684
2734 00:46:15,420 ~-~-> 00:46:19,890
2735 you can see it didn't make that. Okay, so there's your
2736
2737 685
2738 00:46:19,890 ~-~-> 00:46:23,670
2739 relationship between the two and the strong contrast thing,
2740
2741 686
2742 00:46:24,060 ~-~-> 00:46:28,740
2743 views. But this was indicating there's a lot of selling in
2744
2745 687
2746 00:46:28,770 ~-~-> 00:46:36,120
2747 Australian dollar. And if that occurs in any asset, it shows
2748
2749 688
2750 00:46:36,120 ~-~-> 00:46:40,650
2751 you that there is a overwhelming desire, on an institutional
2752
2753 689
2754 00:46:40,650 ~-~-> 00:46:45,060
2755 level, that the volume of their buying and selling will
2756
2757 690
2758 00:46:45,060 ~-~-> 00:46:48,120
2759 create these cracks in correlation, or the SMT divergence in
2760
2761 691
2762 00:46:48,120 ~-~-> 00:46:52,260
2763 itself. Okay, so that's what causes this deviation between
2764
2765 692
2766 00:46:52,650 ~-~-> 00:46:56,280
2767 the relationships of higher highs and lower lows. If we ever
2768
2769 693
2770 00:46:56,280 ~-~-> 00:47:01,200
2771 see that occurring, that is the surest sign if you have the
2772
2773 694
2774 00:47:01,200 ~-~-> 00:47:04,410
2775 profile, correct. And if it's range bound, and that's easy
2776
2777 695
2778 00:47:04,410 ~-~-> 00:47:06,540
2779 for you, hopefully, it should be easy for you to see this,
2780
2781 696
2782 00:47:07,260 ~-~-> 00:47:13,260
2783 then you'll be able to have an X ray view and see that the
2784
2785 697
2786 00:47:13,260 ~-~-> 00:47:16,830
2787 markets are in this point here under heavy distribution, and
2788
2789 698
2790 00:47:16,830 ~-~-> 00:47:21,330
2791 right here under heavy accumulation. And I use this concept.
2792
2793 699
2794 00:47:22,470 ~-~-> 00:47:25,410
2795 And I learned it from Larry Williams, it was just his
2796
2797 700
2798 00:47:25,440 ~-~-> 00:47:30,480
2799 relative strength market analysis. But it was just a real
2800
2801 701
2802 00:47:30,810 ~-~-> 00:47:34,980
2803 basic introduction to it. And if you look at his book, how I
2804
2805 702
2806 00:47:34,980 ~-~-> 00:47:36,600
2807 made a million dollars trading commodities, I think
2808
2809 703
2810 00:47:36,600 ~-~-> 00:47:40,170
2811 everybody should have that book in their library. It's still
2812
2813 704
2814 00:47:40,200 ~-~-> 00:47:43,650
2815 some things like the the moon phases and stuff, like I don't
2816
2817 705
2818 00:47:43,680 ~-~-> 00:47:49,200
2819 subscribe to that. But the idea of his intermarket
2820
2821 706
2822 00:47:49,200 ~-~-> 00:47:54,180
2823 relationships and looking at which contract month the buyer
2824
2825 707
2826 00:47:54,180 ~-~-> 00:47:59,040
2827 sell, and what market the buyer, so comparing the relative
2828
2829 708
2830 00:47:59,040 ~-~-> 00:48:01,410
2831 strength between them, not the indicator, RSI, but the,
2832
2833 709
2834 00:48:01,710 ~-~-> 00:48:05,730
2835 like, I'm comparing the actual price action of New Zealand
2836
2837 710
2838 00:48:05,730 ~-~-> 00:48:09,480
2839 versus the underlying overlay ahead of Aussie dollar, that
2840
2841 711
2842 00:48:09,480 ~-~-> 00:48:13,650
2843 relationship between the two. That is, in essence, relative
2844
2845 712
2846 00:48:13,650 ~-~-> 00:48:17,610
2847 strength analysis, as Larry Williams teaches it. The reason
2848
2849 713
2850 00:48:17,610 ~-~-> 00:48:21,150
2851 why I say this a smart money technique or smart money tool,
2852
2853 714
2854 00:48:21,360 ~-~-> 00:48:25,530
2855 I'm not trying to rename his just basic view of his
2856
2857 715
2858 00:48:25,530 ~-~-> 00:48:29,790
2859 interpretation of it, I found that it occurs at every
2860
2861 716
2862 00:48:29,790 ~-~-> 00:48:33,840
2863 liquidity pool of any importance. You don't hear him talk
2864
2865 717
2866 00:48:33,840 ~-~-> 00:48:36,060
2867 about that. He doesn't even mention that in his books. He
2868
2869 718
2870 00:48:36,060 ~-~-> 00:48:39,540
2871 didn't do I have everything he's ever put out. There's no
2872
2873 719
2874 00:48:40,800 ~-~-> 00:48:46,080
2875 teaching like this. But I always want to credit, the
2876
2877 720
2878 00:48:46,080 ~-~-> 00:48:49,560
2879 influencer, that stimulated my thought process, just like he
2880
2881 721
2882 00:48:49,560 ~-~-> 00:48:54,000
2883 stimulated my whole power three, he stated his weakness of
2884
2885 722
2886 00:48:54,090 ~-~-> 00:48:58,770
2887 wishing he knew where to buy on the low candles below the
2888
2889 723
2890 00:48:58,770 ~-~-> 00:49:03,150
2891 opening before it goes up. And I discovered how to do that.
2892
2893 724
2894 00:49:03,510 ~-~-> 00:49:10,080
2895 So I used his weakness as a pursuit in my life. And I use
2896
2897 725
2898 00:49:10,080 ~-~-> 00:49:12,780
2899 one of the things that he used for relative strength
2900
2901 726
2902 00:49:12,780 ~-~-> 00:49:18,840
2903 analysis. And I blended that with Dow Theory. And it started
2904
2905 727
2906 00:49:18,840 ~-~-> 00:49:20,730
2907 making sense to me, it's like, you know, if the market is
2908
2909 728
2910 00:49:20,730 ~-~-> 00:49:23,940
2911 going to have these internal turning points, that major
2912
2913 729
2914 00:49:23,940 ~-~-> 00:49:28,080
2915 intermediate term highs and lows. There should be some kind
2916
2917 730
2918 00:49:28,080 ~-~-> 00:49:31,080
2919 of signature there some kind of fingerprint, some kind of
2920
2921 731
2922 00:49:31,080 ~-~-> 00:49:34,890
2923 reoccurring phenomenon that I need to decipher what that is.
2924
2925 732
2926 00:49:35,670 ~-~-> 00:49:40,260
2927 And this is what I found. It's always there in a range bound
2928
2929 733
2930 00:49:40,260 ~-~-> 00:49:44,370
2931 market. It's in specific places in trending environments,
2932
2933 734
2934 00:49:44,370 ~-~-> 00:49:47,520
2935 but I'm not teaching that here. And it's something that
2936
2937 735
2938 00:49:47,520 ~-~-> 00:49:52,560
2939 relies on multiple supportive theories and concepts to make
2940
2941 736
2942 00:49:52,560 ~-~-> 00:49:57,630
2943 it usable, okay? It's not like this where it's pretty cut
2944
2945 737
2946 00:49:57,630 ~-~-> 00:50:02,430
2947 and dry. But I want you to understand That there's a way for
2948
2949 738
2950 00:50:02,430 ~-~-> 00:50:06,750
2951 you to see real accumulation and real distribution. And you
2952
2953 739
2954 00:50:06,750 ~-~-> 00:50:11,190
2955 can see it by looking at just the price. No indicators, none
2956
2957 740
2958 00:50:11,190 ~-~-> 00:50:18,000
2959 whatsoever. Now, if I put that chart back up over top of the
2960
2961 741
2962 00:50:18,000 ~-~-> 00:50:28,860
2963 New Zealand dollar, and I change it to the histogram if I
2964
2965 742
2966 00:50:28,860 ~-~-> 00:50:33,180
2967 was on Instagram, okay, and I did something like this, and I
2968
2969 743
2970 00:50:33,180 ~-~-> 00:50:35,970
2971 masked this over here, so you couldn't see that that was the
2972
2973 744
2974 00:50:35,970 ~-~-> 00:50:39,960
2975 overlay. People would flip out, oh, he's using an indicator.
2976
2977 745
2978 00:50:42,090 ~-~-> 00:50:47,730
2979 It's not, I'm using price, price will tell you everything.
2980
2981 746
2982 00:50:48,180 ~-~-> 00:50:50,910
2983 And the relationships between the two, here's Australian
2984
2985 747
2986 00:50:50,910 ~-~-> 00:50:56,610
2987 dollar, and I'm going to close this video. Here's that lower
2988
2989 748
2990 00:50:56,610 ~-~-> 00:51:00,090
2991 high, while the New Zealand dollar
2992
2993 749
2994 00:51:06,060 ~-~-> 00:51:09,420
2995 makes the higher high. So that's the cracking correlation,
2996
2997 750
2998 00:51:09,420 ~-~-> 00:51:14,190
2999 whenever you see this, that's indicating, on a grand scale,
3000
3001 751
3002 00:51:14,310 ~-~-> 00:51:17,520
3003 that heavy distributions coming into the marketplace. So if
3004
3005 752
3006 00:51:17,520 ~-~-> 00:51:20,730
3007 heavy distribution is coming in, how do we know that because
3008
3009 753
3010 00:51:20,730 ~-~-> 00:51:23,520
3011 the Australian dollar is unable to make that higher high,
3012
3013 754
3014 00:51:23,730 ~-~-> 00:51:26,340
3015 like the New Zealand is, so they're selling heavily?
3016
3017 755
3018 00:51:26,640 ~-~-> 00:51:29,610
3019 Australian dollar. So why are they selling Australian dollar
3020
3021 756
3022 00:51:29,610 ~-~-> 00:51:34,320
3023 heavy? Because they believe it's going to go lower? Why is
3024
3025 757
3026 00:51:34,320 ~-~-> 00:51:36,900
3027 it going to go lower? Because they're pricing it lower?
3028
3029 758
3030 00:51:37,260 ~-~-> 00:51:42,810
3031 Okay. It's controlled, 100% controlled. So if you reverse
3032
3033 759
3034 00:51:42,810 ~-~-> 00:51:46,530
3035 that theory, why is New Zealand dollar going up, it's to
3036
3037 760
3038 00:51:46,530 ~-~-> 00:51:49,200
3039 knock out the traders that are using this as resistance,
3040
3041 761
3042 00:51:50,100 ~-~-> 00:51:54,660
3043 clearing their stops, and then it drops. Okay, so I gave you
3044
3045 762
3046 00:51:55,320 ~-~-> 00:51:58,680
3047 lots of different ways to skin this cat. But I taught you
3048
3049 763
3050 00:51:58,680 ~-~-> 00:52:03,180
3051 again how to use the X ray view of using price action alone,
3052
3053 764
3054 00:52:03,210 ~-~-> 00:52:07,380
3055 no indicators, none whatsoever. And you can get a better
3056
3057 765
3058 00:52:07,380 ~-~-> 00:52:11,010
3059 read on accumulation and distribution. And the manipulation
3060
3061 766
3062 00:52:11,010 ~-~-> 00:52:14,250
3063 that takes place at key times one of those key times when
3064
3065 767
3066 00:52:14,250 ~-~-> 00:52:16,920
3067 the markets range bound, and it goes above relative equal
3068
3069 768
3070 00:52:16,920 ~-~-> 00:52:20,250
3071 highs. Look for the s&p divergence when that happens. You
3072
3073 769
3074 00:52:20,250 ~-~-> 00:52:26,130
3075 either are confident to trade the higher high market or wait
3076
3077 770
3078 00:52:26,130 ~-~-> 00:52:29,670
3079 for it to break down and get the breaker and then write it
3080
3081 771
3082 00:52:29,670 ~-~-> 00:52:33,600
3083 to a level of sells on liquidity. That my friends is a
3084
3085 772
3086 00:52:33,600 ~-~-> 00:52:40,380
3087 complete 100% from beginning to end price action model. You
3088
3089 773
3090 00:52:40,380 ~-~-> 00:52:43,800
3091 can use this on any timeframe. You can use this in
3092
3093 774
3094 00:52:44,130 ~-~-> 00:52:50,940
3095 commodities, you can use it in Well, clearly forex and you
3096
3097 775
3098 00:52:50,940 ~-~-> 00:52:55,110
3099 can use it for any type of trading, intraday, day trading,
3100
3101 776
3102 00:52:55,290 ~-~-> 00:52:58,320
3103 short term trading, swing trading, long term position
3104
3105 777
3106 00:52:58,320 ~-~-> 00:53:03,270
3107 trading, it's 100% scalable, and you can do this multiple
3108
3109 778
3110 00:53:03,270 ~-~-> 00:53:08,070
3111 times a week. It's there all the time. Don't believe me. I
3112
3113 779
3114 00:53:08,070 ~-~-> 00:53:10,890
3115 want you to go on your charts and look for it. So until I
3116
3117 780
3118 00:53:10,890 ~-~-> 00:53:13,230
3119 talk to you next time, I wish you good luck and good trading