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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-11-20 17:09
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3 ICT: Welcome back, folks, this is a short little discussion.
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7 One, why I stay on the sidelines after Tuesday's New York
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11 session on the weeks of non farm payroll. And then I'll
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15 close this video with a short message about why I believe
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19 all of you should be careful going into the coming weeks.
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23 This is the euro dollar chart is a 15 minute time frame. And
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27 you can see basically, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday is
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31 price action. Now I teach a principle about the week that
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35 begins every new month that price delivery can be a little
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39 skewed a little wonky, a little difficult to get a gauge on
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43 with high degree of probability. And it has a lot to do with
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47 the expectation of the non farm payroll number, employment
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51 numbers. And the beginning of the month. There's been many
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55 instances over the years where I've stated this is my view
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59 on it. It's been times where I wish I would have
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63 participated in these particular days. But for over the last
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67 27 years, I've can look back and say that's a very small
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71 number of times, that that will be true. And the most part,
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75 I'm glad I don't participate in the marketplace, after the
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79 New York session on Tuesday of the week of non farm payroll.
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83 What does that mean specifically means that there will
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87 obviously be gyrations in price. I'm not arguing that point.
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91 And invariably, there will be moves that will be really
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95 nice. I'm just not going to be participating in them. Now I
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99 teach this to my students. I've taught it also on this
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103 YouTube channel in specific trading, series and lessons.
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107 There are some that come to this YouTube channel with their
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111 hard and fast preconceived notions about what they believe
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115 about pricing. And they're entitled to that opinion. But if
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119 you're going to be a trader, if you're going to be a
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123 principle oriented, speculator, then you have to have rules,
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127 you have to have filters, they may be time based, they may
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131 be calendar based. And I believe that those individuals that
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135 do not have filters for their trading, a trade frequency
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139 number of trades that you can take inside of a day or week
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143 or month. If you don't have those things in your trading
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147 plan or your trading model, you're really limiting yourself
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151 and inviting more adversities, then if you just simply build
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155 them in. In this industry, less is more and filtering out a
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159 specific time window of the Year in a particular month. And
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163 which days out of a month will bring the most likely
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167 scenarios that will result in a losing trade. almost three
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171 decades, I've looked at all of my information, all of my
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175 executions, all of my expectations, my journal entries, and
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179 I came to the conclusion many years ago that there was a
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183 specific time of every month that I would be wrong more
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187 times than I was right. And that happens to be the
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191 Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, leading up to non farm
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195 payroll. Without fail, I would have some expectation coming
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199 into the marketplace. And it would be most likely incorrect.
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203 And then in those instances when I did not have the wisdom
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207 to stay out of the marketplace, and when in I would go into
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211 this revenge mode. So if I took a loss on GM going in there,
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215 I'm gonna get it back. And then if that loss happened, then
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219 I would go in with revenge part two. And it would just
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223 parlay a small mistake into a larger mistake and a larger
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227 draw down and, truth be told. I actually dusted completely
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231 blown out. Two commodity trading accounts trading in these
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235 specific days, and I did it trading the s&p. So there's a
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239 lot of truth to what I'm saying here. It's based on
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243 factors that I suffered to learn through blowing out
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247 accounts, losing money. And I just discovered that I don't
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251 need to do this 500 times more to get the point. So it's
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255 important for you to know that it's a good thing to build in
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259 filters, limiting yourself and abstaining from some times
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263 where the probability really isn't as high as you might want
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267 it to be. And years ago, we would look at non farm payrolls,
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271 say, well, it's gonna have a lot of volatility, I want to be
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275 a part of that. And I have made money trading, non farm
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279 payroll Fridays, I have, but I have lost more than I did
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283 when. So you never hear me preach how that's a good thing,
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287 NFP, non farm payroll. It's been dubbed by others, which I
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291 think is cute, but it works. Not for professionals. Okay,
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295 that that's a day where you just simply say, okay, you know,
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299 there's going to be movements. There's gyrations and such,
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303 but I'm okay with not being a part of that. Just like I'm
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307 not trying to press the envelope in the last two weeks of
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311 the year in December. I'm not trying to push it hard,
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315 really, after the week prior to leading up to the US
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319 celebration of the Thanksgiving holiday. That's usually the
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323 time where I start to wind down my personal participation.
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327 And I don't pick it back up until February. Now, that may be
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331 a lot of time, for some of you listening, there's no way I
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335 would be out of the market. There's all kinds of trades I
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339 can take. That's you. That's not me. That's, that's you.
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343 There's nothing wrong with that. I'm not saying that this is
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347 beneficial to everyone. Or it's a silver bullet that fixes
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351 everything for everyone else. I'm just saying that this is
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355 why I don't hold to the idea that I should be participating
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359 on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of non farm payroll, I
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363 just don't see any necessity for it. And typically, even on
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367 the Mondays and Tuesdays of that week, I can also look back
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371 and see that that is the time when I lose more than I make
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375 nothing. What benefit is it? If you don't use the
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379 information, when you back test? If you ignore the data, and
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383 only look for the things you want to see in it? Is that an
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387 honest approach to using data? No, you're cherry picking
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391 what you want it to say. Because the numbers and the data,
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395 no matter what you're looking at, if you torture the numbers
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399 enough, they will submit to anything. But when you look at
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403 it with a hard critical, objective view, with the intent of
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407 benefiting you, not harming, not limiting the amount of
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411 money you can make. But focusing in on the times where you
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415 as a trader, you as the decision maker, the analyst, the
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419 trader, The Gambler, because all of us have three people
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423 inside of us. I found in my own trading the first week of
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427 every single month, that is the largest period of time,
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431 where I lose more trades than any other time. Because of
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435 that, I dial back my expectations, my trade frequencies, and
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439 I have a very loose opinion about what I think may happen in
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443 the marketplace. And I allow my opinion, or bias to be
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447 flexible that first week of every month. Now I go in with an
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451 expectation. But I'm flexible to allow myself to admit I'm
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455 wrong there and I have to allow myself to realign with what
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459 the markets likely to do. If we look at this price action
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463 here, I'm going to show you what I do personally but not
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467 using the actual chart I just make annotations and draw them
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471 by hand with a line chart. idea in my own journal, but this
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475 is what I do. Okay, just for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday,
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479 every single month, I put this in here and I look at it. In
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483 this view, I show
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487 roughly, what Wednesday, Thursday and Friday going into non
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491 farm payroll traded like, Okay, so in essence, it would look
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495 something like this. Okay, and it wouldn't have every single
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499 little up and down move here. But it would be a rough idea
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503 depiction of all these turning points in the high price, the
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507 low price, the high price, the low price, the high price and
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511 any short term low prior to a lower low, or any short term
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515 high, lower than a higher short term high. And I'll explain
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519 why that's important. Now, add annotations here. What I'm
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523 recording in my journal is these are short term turning
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527 points where liquidity was taken short term high here,
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531 whatever that high price would be. That's what I'm recording
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535 next to the line drawing in my journal. Okay, and then I
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539 write down the time. And the day in that series of days,
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543 Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. And what high it went to
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547 above it. If this high gets ran out, which does here, I
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551 write down the high point of that candle. And the time it
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555 took it out. And how much over range it moved above the
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559 previous high. Same thing with this hot here, how much did
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563 it go above it? Any short term high over here, I record the
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567 high, what time it goes above and how much it went above it.
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571 The low I record the low price. And it annotated next to the
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575 crude depiction, I draw my journal. Like I said, I'm an I'm
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579 a dinosaur, I draw things out. And I don't have a lot of
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583 printed charts. And it can be very expensive. So you don't
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587 really need to print them out. But you can create a digital
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591 journal and annotate your charts. And you never have to
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595 really print them out at all. And you can have the benefit
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599 of having it, I just grew into the high touch versus the
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603 high tech long time ago. And I've never wanted to make the
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607 transition. Now there's been times where I wish I would have
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611 made a jump from doing it with pen and journal, literally
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615 writing it out to a digital because a lot of things I could
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619 go and find, like I have. I have hundreds of journals. And I
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623 just simply can't go through. Like if you had a digital
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627 version, saving everything with a Excel spreadsheet, you
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631 could put keywords into every journal entry. So like if you
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635 want to look at every non farm payroll, or a specific non
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639 farm payroll period of a particular month of a particular
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643 year, you can go right to that, I can't really do that with
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647 the way I do it. So in a way, it's many degrees less
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651 efficient. But I just prefer to do it that way. It's a
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655 matter of preference. Okay. So while I admit readily that
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659 there's a lot of disadvantages, the way I do it, and you all
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663 today, as a younger group of traders that are in
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667 development, you have a lot more advantages than I did
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671 coming up. And the people before me had, we had to do
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675 everything with a spiral notebook, and pencil and scratch
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679 out this and scratch out that it was a it's a harder way of
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683 doing it. But my view is, that's what makes you really earn
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687 it. Whereas now you have so many tools at your disposal.
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691 Nowadays, you should use them, you should take advantage of
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695 them. But the benefit of doing that is I study the runs on
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699 liquidity. And then I look for any price swing that makes
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703 sense with some of the logic that I use in my repertoire.
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707 And then what would that look like? Well, there is this one
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711 here, you have relatively equal lows. But we have a break in
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715 market structure there. So I will record this high to this
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719 low the total range of pips between both in the low in the
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723 high price level. And then the optimal trade entry where it
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727 trades to in here at an owner block. Okay, so why this order
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731 block because it goes higher than the previous ones, even
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735 though this candle goes higher, I'm looking at the body of
736
737 185
738 00:14:27,750 ~-~-> 00:14:32,730
739 the candle. So I want the higher body up close. That to me
740
741 186
742 00:14:32,730 ~-~-> 00:14:36,210
743 is the order block right there. So you can extend that in
744
745 187
746 00:14:36,210 ~-~-> 00:14:39,990
747 time. And if you get a reaction there, you can view that
748
749 188
750 00:14:39,990 ~-~-> 00:14:43,590
751 potentially as a short, which I did not take because as I
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753 189
754 00:14:43,590 ~-~-> 00:14:47,070
755 started this video, my students know also I wasn't trading
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757 190
758 00:14:47,070 ~-~-> 00:14:51,600
759 the rest of this week. But I'm providing this information so
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761 191
762 00:14:51,600 ~-~-> 00:14:54,600
763 that way, I'm answering hundreds of emails that repeat all
764
765 192
766 00:14:54,600 ~-~-> 00:14:57,300
767 the time if I'm not trading, what do we do with this
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769 193
770 00:14:57,300 ~-~-> 00:15:01,230
771 information? What do we glean from if anything This is what
772
773 194
774 00:15:01,230 ~-~-> 00:15:06,450
775 I do. Now, what it helps me do is it keeps the fact that
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777 195
778 00:15:07,980 ~-~-> 00:15:10,680
779 many principles still exist, and they repeat during these
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781 196
782 00:15:10,680 ~-~-> 00:15:15,630
783 days, but they don't unfold or develop
784
785 197
786 00:15:16,920 ~-~-> 00:15:21,750
787 in the degree of precision that I want to see. Okay, so
788
789 198
790 00:15:21,750 ~-~-> 00:15:24,420
791 there's a lot of signatures that you don't know that I have
792
793 199
794 00:15:24,420 ~-~-> 00:15:29,100
795 in my toolbox that I'm looking for, that aren't always
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797 200
798 00:15:29,130 ~-~-> 00:15:33,180
799 showing up in these particular days. Whereas like next week,
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801 201
802 00:15:33,930 ~-~-> 00:15:36,480
803 the signatures that I would expect to see in price will
804
805 202
806 00:15:36,480 ~-~-> 00:15:40,200
807 probably be there. Because it's not during non farm payroll,
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809 203
810 00:15:40,650 ~-~-> 00:15:45,150
811 there's a lot of manipulation, there's a lot of traction and
812
813 204
814 00:15:45,180 ~-~-> 00:15:50,010
815 holding of a range leading up into non farm payroll. And
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817 205
818 00:15:50,010 ~-~-> 00:15:51,840
819 today was kind of like a dud, you can see on Friday, it
820
821 206
822 00:15:51,840 ~-~-> 00:15:55,440
823 wasn't much price action at all. But this swing here, if we
824
825 207
826 00:15:55,440 ~-~-> 00:15:58,890
827 add a fib, just to get the idea of overbought, oversold and
828
829 208
830 00:15:58,950 ~-~-> 00:16:08,310
831 projected low. trades up into the 70.5. Sweet Spot. Once it
832
833 209
834 00:16:08,310 ~-~-> 00:16:14,610
835 breaks, this low here, trades down into negative point five
836
837 210
838 00:16:16,470 ~-~-> 00:16:23,370
839 standard deviation, price 116 97 for the low comes in at
840
841 211
842 00:16:24,150 ~-~-> 00:16:30,630
843 116 958. So it's close. But just that's not as tight as I
844
845 212
846 00:16:30,630 ~-~-> 00:16:35,820
847 like to see it. Take that off. And then watching non farm
848
849 213
850 00:16:35,820 ~-~-> 00:16:39,570
851 payroll, I record the high the day, the low of the day, and
852
853 214
854 00:16:39,570 ~-~-> 00:16:43,140
855 the session highs and lows at London close at New York open
856
857 215
858 00:16:43,530 ~-~-> 00:16:49,230
859 and London open. So those price points is what I refer to
860
861 216
862 00:16:49,230 ~-~-> 00:16:52,170
863 and then I'll refer to the same price points in next week's
864
865 217
866 00:16:52,170 ~-~-> 00:16:55,050
867 trading. And I'll look at how we work with those levels and
868
869 218
870 00:16:55,050 ~-~-> 00:16:57,570
871 what they leave in place. Like for instance, if this is the
872
873 219
874 00:16:57,570 ~-~-> 00:17:00,750
875 low of the day, by the time we close, and it's three minutes
876
877 220
878 00:17:00,750 ~-~-> 00:17:03,420
879 before 3pm and eastern standard time as at the time of this
880
881 221
882 00:17:03,420 ~-~-> 00:17:07,440
883 recording. Do they leave this low intact? Do they leave as
884
885 222
886 00:17:07,440 ~-~-> 00:17:10,380
887 high intact, chances are, it's probably going to be the case
888
889 223
890 00:17:10,380 ~-~-> 00:17:14,460
891 but not always. Sometimes there's a little rush where it
892
893 224
894 00:17:14,460 ~-~-> 00:17:19,020
895 runs to one of them and blows one of them out. I look at
896
897 225
898 00:17:19,020 ~-~-> 00:17:21,840
899 that on Saturday morning. And I refer back to all these
900
901 226
902 00:17:21,840 ~-~-> 00:17:26,370
903 price points. Because everything that's being shown here as
904
905 227
906 00:17:26,370 ~-~-> 00:17:31,320
907 liquidity pool and being targeted, they will still be
908
909 228
910 00:17:31,350 ~-~-> 00:17:35,280
911 referenced in the next week or the following week. They're
912
913 229
914 00:17:35,280 ~-~-> 00:17:40,830
915 important, because this was all pre non farm payroll, and
916
917 230
918 00:17:40,830 ~-~-> 00:17:43,950
919 the non farm payroll numbers come out. These reference
920
921 231
922 00:17:43,950 ~-~-> 00:17:47,880
923 points will be utilized at a later time. They'll either act
924
925 232
926 00:17:47,880 ~-~-> 00:17:52,470
927 as a point of drawing on liquidity, or they will be blown
928
929 233
930 00:17:52,470 ~-~-> 00:17:56,070
931 out and then potentially retested. And then another price
932
933 234
934 00:17:56,070 ~-~-> 00:17:58,560
935 leg will continue. And I want you to take my word for I want
936
937 235
938 00:17:58,560 ~-~-> 00:18:02,190
939 you to go back and look at your own data. And study it works
940
941 236
942 00:18:02,190 ~-~-> 00:18:09,810
943 on bonds, it works on equities, it works on s&p index,
944
945 237
946 00:18:10,110 ~-~-> 00:18:14,550
947 futures and forex, any any forex pair. So while I stay out
948
949 238
950 00:18:14,550 ~-~-> 00:18:16,650
951 of the marketplace these particular days of the month,
952
953 239
954 00:18:17,310 ~-~-> 00:18:22,470
955 knowing that I'm likely to be wrong these days, I still use
956
957 240
958 00:18:22,470 ~-~-> 00:18:26,760
959 the information by doing this practice, okay, I go in, I
960
961 241
962 00:18:26,760 ~-~-> 00:18:29,700
963 find the information I'm looking for. And I record that. And
964
965 242
966 00:18:29,700 ~-~-> 00:18:32,640
967 then I carry those ideas. And those levels, even though they
968
969 243
970 00:18:32,640 ~-~-> 00:18:36,150
971 may not particularly show themselves on my charts when I'm
972
973 244
974 00:18:36,150 ~-~-> 00:18:39,960
975 teaching. They're in my notes. So when price is starting to
976
977 245
978 00:18:39,960 ~-~-> 00:18:42,810
979 go close to one of these levels, and what levels I'm
980
981 246
982 00:18:42,810 ~-~-> 00:18:46,440
983 referring to the actual high here, the actual high here, the
984
985 247
986 00:18:46,440 ~-~-> 00:18:51,000
987 high here, the high here, here, and here and here. So their
988
989 248
990 00:18:51,000 ~-~-> 00:18:54,180
991 levels I'm watching, because there may be something that
992
993 249
994 00:18:54,210 ~-~-> 00:18:59,130
995 forms that I teach my students, a specific PD array may key
996
997 250
998 00:18:59,130 ~-~-> 00:19:03,030
999 off of one of these levels. And if it does, and it matches
1000
1001 251
1002 00:19:03,030 ~-~-> 00:19:06,810
1003 time and price, then I'm probably have a setup, but not
1004
1005 252
1006 00:19:06,810 ~-~-> 00:19:13,050
1007 during these days. Okay. So I just wanted to throw that out
1008
1009 253
1010 00:19:13,050 ~-~-> 00:19:15,030
1011 there because I get a lot of emails and hopefully this
1012
1013 254
1014 00:19:15,030 ~-~-> 00:19:17,700
1015 answers it. But I just want to make a short little
1016
1017 255
1018 00:19:18,150 ~-~-> 00:19:21,630
1019 commentary right now about what we're going to most likely
1020
1021 256
1022 00:19:21,630 ~-~-> 00:19:26,520
1023 see in the coming weeks. At the time of this recording at
1024
1025 257
1026 00:19:26,520 ~-~-> 00:19:32,610
1027 three o'clock, Friday, October 2 2020. Many of you know that
1028
1029 258
1030 00:19:32,610 ~-~-> 00:19:39,300
1031 we have an election on November 3. On November 3, we're
1032
1033 259
1034 00:19:39,300 ~-~-> 00:19:42,960
1035 probably going to see an enormous amount of volatility. If
1036
1037 260
1038 00:19:42,960 ~-~-> 00:19:49,500
1039 you go back and look at the 2016 election, there was some
1040
1041 261
1042 00:19:49,500 ~-~-> 00:19:54,540
1043 wild price action that took place and I think we're gonna
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1045 262
1046 00:19:54,540 ~-~-> 00:19:58,140
1047 have more of that this year. We have never been as polarized
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1049 263
1050 00:19:58,140 ~-~-> 00:20:06,030
1051 as we have been In recent years, as a nation, I've been
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1053 264
1054 00:20:06,030 ~-~-> 00:20:09,960
1055 warning my students, and I would not be able to rest easy.
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1057 265
1058 00:20:10,590 ~-~-> 00:20:14,910
1059 Knowing that a lot of you aren't able to hear me talk to my
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1061 266
1062 00:20:14,940 ~-~-> 00:20:16,530
1063 mentorship students like I do.
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1065 267
1066 00:20:17,910 ~-~-> 00:20:20,460
1067 So I'm going to bring this message to the YouTube channel,
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1069 268
1070 00:20:20,790 ~-~-> 00:20:25,950
1071 students as well, because I care about you. I care about
1072
1073 269
1074 00:20:25,950 ~-~-> 00:20:29,280
1075 you, whether you sign up to my mentorship or not, because
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1077 270
1078 00:20:29,310 ~-~-> 00:20:35,070
1079 you have given me your time, your trust. And I want no one
1080
1081 271
1082 00:20:35,340 ~-~-> 00:20:38,820
1083 to get hurt, not financially, not emotionally, like not
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1085 272
1086 00:20:38,820 ~-~-> 00:20:45,510
1087 psychologically. And I believe that we're entering a period
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1089 273
1090 00:20:45,510 ~-~-> 00:20:48,540
1091 where there is going to be an enormous amount of risk,
1092
1093 274
1094 00:20:49,470 ~-~-> 00:20:55,590
1095 enormous amount of risk. I'm personally dialing back my own
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1097 275
1098 00:20:55,590 ~-~-> 00:21:05,310
1099 trading, or I am not willing to put myself out there and
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1101 276
1102 00:21:05,310 ~-~-> 00:21:10,920
1103 have someone have such a high degree of trust and regard in
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1105 277
1106 00:21:10,920 ~-~-> 00:21:15,960
1107 me in my analysis. And even though I teach by way of a demo,
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1109 278
1110 00:21:15,960 ~-~-> 00:21:21,120
1111 or paper trading because of legal reasons, and limitations,
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1113 279
1114 00:21:21,150 ~-~-> 00:21:24,060
1115 because I'm not certified to get trade advice. We only talk
1116
1117 280
1118 00:21:24,060 ~-~-> 00:21:26,970
1119 about paper trading. And that's not the same as live
1120
1121 281
1122 00:21:26,970 ~-~-> 00:21:32,940
1123 trading. Invariably, my students get excited about some
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1125 282
1126 00:21:32,940 ~-~-> 00:21:35,820
1127 things I may say, and they go in with Live account trading.
1128
1129 283
1130 00:21:36,870 ~-~-> 00:21:39,660
1131 And then they send me emails, Hey, I just did this. I know
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1133 284
1134 00:21:39,660 ~-~-> 00:21:41,280
1135 you don't like to hear this, but I just want to thank you,
1136
1137 285
1138 00:21:41,280 ~-~-> 00:21:45,750
1139 blah, blah, blah. I don't want anyone to do this. In the
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1141 286
1142 00:21:45,750 ~-~-> 00:21:52,620
1143 coming weeks. If you don't listen to this warning, and
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1145 287
1146 00:21:52,620 ~-~-> 00:21:57,690
1147 something happens, I would feel terrible, because you didn't
1148
1149 288
1150 00:21:57,690 ~-~-> 00:22:03,030
1151 listen to me. Last year, when I was on Twitter, I told
1152
1153 289
1154 00:22:03,030 ~-~-> 00:22:06,030
1155 everybody in October, I said something really Bad's coming.
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1157 290
1158 00:22:06,870 ~-~-> 00:22:12,420
1159 And I said in 2016, before Trump was even elected, that he
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1161 291
1162 00:22:12,420 ~-~-> 00:22:15,390
1163 would be elected. And in the last year, we would see what
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1165 292
1166 00:22:15,390 ~-~-> 00:22:19,620
1167 you're looking at all around, look around. These are the
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1169 293
1170 00:22:19,620 ~-~-> 00:22:22,380
1171 things that I talked about. Now, I'm not trying to claim to
1172
1173 294
1174 00:22:22,380 ~-~-> 00:22:29,310
1175 be some kind of Oracle. Okay. It's this common sense, folks.
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1177 295
1178 00:22:29,790 ~-~-> 00:22:37,860
1179 Okay, we have a tinderbox waiting for the right Spark. And
1180
1181 296
1182 00:22:38,190 ~-~-> 00:22:41,460
1183 the markets are going to do something probably that's
1184
1185 297
1186 00:22:41,490 ~-~-> 00:22:44,430
1187 completely unexpected by many of you, especially to new
1188
1189 298
1190 00:22:44,430 ~-~-> 00:22:47,970
1191 folks that are just now entering. If you click on videos,
1192
1193 299
1194 00:22:48,060 ~-~-> 00:22:52,110
1195 mine included, you're probably met with, Hey, are you
1196
1197 300
1198 00:22:52,110 ~-~-> 00:22:54,390
1199 looking for a way to make money sitting home trading off
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1201 301
1202 00:22:54,390 ~-~-> 00:22:57,810
1203 your phone, I'm going to turn you into a millionaire, I took
1204
1205 302
1206 00:22:57,810 ~-~-> 00:22:59,910
1207 my hundred thousand dollars and turned into $5 million in
1208
1209 303
1210 00:22:59,910 ~-~-> 00:23:01,620
1211 two years, and I'm going to show you exactly how to do it
1212
1213 304
1214 00:23:01,620 ~-~-> 00:23:06,300
1215 too. We're constantly slammed with that kind of stuff on
1216
1217 305
1218 00:23:06,300 ~-~-> 00:23:09,150
1219 YouTube, I'm just like everything is someone's teaching you
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1221 306
1222 00:23:09,150 ~-~-> 00:23:16,470
1223 how to trade. Okay? Nobody is warning them, or you have the
1224
1225 307
1226 00:23:16,470 ~-~-> 00:23:22,530
1227 potential impossibility that is going to be wrapped up as a
1228
1229 308
1230 00:23:22,530 ~-~-> 00:23:26,910
1231 potential opportunity. And I'll say it this way. I learned
1232
1233 309
1234 00:23:26,910 ~-~-> 00:23:31,230
1235 early on. And I can't remember where I got this quote from.
1236
1237 310
1238 00:23:31,350 ~-~-> 00:23:36,780
1239 It's not original to me. But sometimes, opportunity is
1240
1241 311
1242 00:23:36,780 ~-~-> 00:23:44,460
1243 cleverly disguised. But it's an impossibility. So there may
1244
1245 312
1246 00:23:44,460 ~-~-> 00:23:49,110
1247 be something that looks like a wonderful opportunity. But
1248
1249 313
1250 00:23:49,410 ~-~-> 00:23:55,320
1251 you engage, and then you get smoked in a way that you can't
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1253 314
1254 00:23:55,320 ~-~-> 00:24:01,470
1255 afford. I want you to think about this for a moment. We have
1256
1257 315
1258 00:24:01,470 ~-~-> 00:24:04,830
1259 a stoploss that we can use in trading. Great, that's
1260
1261 316
1262 00:24:04,830 ~-~-> 00:24:09,690
1263 wonderful. But what happens when the market gaps through
1264
1265 317
1266 00:24:09,690 ~-~-> 00:24:13,770
1267 that the broker is not obligated to give you your stock
1268
1269 318
1270 00:24:13,770 ~-~-> 00:24:18,870
1271 price. It's going to be whatever the next price trades and
1272
1273 319
1274 00:24:18,870 ~-~-> 00:24:25,200
1275 it could be hundreds of pips beyond where your stop was. Are
1276
1277 320
1278 00:24:25,200 ~-~-> 00:24:29,790
1279 you prepared for that? Because we could be going into a
1280
1281 321
1282 00:24:29,790 ~-~-> 00:24:31,860
1283 period where they're going to say there's no liquidity.
1284
1285 322
1286 00:24:32,760 ~-~-> 00:24:36,540
1287 That's what they're going to say. But it's going to be
1288
1289 323
1290 00:24:36,570 ~-~-> 00:24:42,750
1291 luckily a very huge repricing. The banks can make the price
1292
1293 324
1294 00:24:42,750 ~-~-> 00:24:47,610
1295 whatever they want it to be folks. Period. Doesn't matter if
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1297 325
1298 00:24:47,610 ~-~-> 00:24:50,160
1299 you'd like me, doesn't matter if you agree with me. That's
1300
1301 326
1302 00:24:50,160 ~-~-> 00:24:53,310
1303 the facts. It's their commodity. They can set the price to
1304
1305 327
1306 00:24:53,310 ~-~-> 00:25:01,710
1307 whatever they want. Carefully, consider What you're doing in
1308
1309 328
1310 00:25:01,710 ~-~-> 00:25:05,010
1311 the coming weeks, I personally have told my own students, I
1312
1313 329
1314 00:25:05,010 ~-~-> 00:25:08,040
1315 said, I'm not going to be putting myself out there. I don't
1316
1317 330
1318 00:25:08,040 ~-~-> 00:25:12,510
1319 want anyone to get hurt. And I'm going to be filling up
1320
1321 331
1322 00:25:12,750 ~-~-> 00:25:16,740
1323 these coming weeks with just mainly teachings. And I am not
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1325 332
1326 00:25:16,740 ~-~-> 00:25:21,090
1327 willing to do anything with opinions, or analysis
1328
1329 333
1330 00:25:21,090 ~-~-> 00:25:25,290
1331 forecasting. As we get closer to the election, this week,
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1333 334
1334 00:25:25,290 ~-~-> 00:25:29,640
1335 here, the 26th of October, to the sixth of November, I made
1336
1337 335
1338 00:25:29,640 ~-~-> 00:25:33,690
1339 a very blunt statement, I'm not talking about the future, in
1340
1341 336
1342 00:25:33,690 ~-~-> 00:25:37,980
1343 the charts. During those weeks, as we get closer to those
1344
1345 337
1346 00:25:38,010 ~-~-> 00:25:45,060
1347 weeks, I'm gonna be dialing back my opinions also, if I've
1348
1349 338
1350 00:25:45,060 ~-~-> 00:25:47,730
1351 been doing this for almost three decades, and I'm telling
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1353 339
1354 00:25:47,730 ~-~-> 00:25:52,740
1355 you, this is how I see it. And while I'm not perfect, while
1356
1357 340
1358 00:25:52,740 ~-~-> 00:26:00,180
1359 I'm not 100% I'm pretty good. And every fiber in my being is
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1361 341
1362 00:26:00,180 ~-~-> 00:26:04,770
1363 screaming right now, to warn you not to do anything stupid.
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1365 342
1366 00:26:06,060 ~-~-> 00:26:08,460
1367 Don't trade with your normal leverage. If you think that
1368
1369 343
1370 00:26:08,460 ~-~-> 00:26:12,720
1371 you're good at trading. Regardless of what you've made in
1372
1373 344
1374 00:26:12,720 ~-~-> 00:26:18,690
1375 the past, folks, listen, we're going into the perfect storm,
1376
1377 345
1378 00:26:19,950 ~-~-> 00:26:23,430
1379 the perfect storm, we have a perfect fall guy in the White
1380
1381 346
1382 00:26:23,430 ~-~-> 00:26:30,120
1383 House. He can be blamed for everything. We have someone that
1384
1385 347
1386 00:26:30,120 ~-~-> 00:26:33,720
1387 could potentially take over the White House that doesn't
1388
1389 348
1390 00:26:33,720 ~-~-> 00:26:39,690
1391 really have their mental faculties together. There are so
1392
1393 349
1394 00:26:39,690 ~-~-> 00:26:44,670
1395 many things at stake right now. And so many opportunities
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1397 350
1398 00:26:45,120 ~-~-> 00:26:52,980
1399 for the sheep to be fleeced. Don't stand with the herd. Stay
1400
1401 351
1402 00:26:52,980 ~-~-> 00:26:58,560
1403 in the brush. don't participate. Don't look at these coming
1404
1405 352
1406 00:26:58,560 ~-~-> 00:27:01,410
1407 weeks as I'm going to get rich, I'm going to get these big
1408
1409 353
1410 00:27:01,410 ~-~-> 00:27:05,190
1411 moves to come. Because that's what a gambler says. The
1412
1413 354
1414 00:27:05,190 ~-~-> 00:27:09,630
1415 Gambler in all of us has to be controlled. That's the one in
1416
1417 355
1418 00:27:09,630 ~-~-> 00:27:14,730
1419 you. That's taking the unnecessary risks, not using a stop
1420
1421 356
1422 00:27:14,730 ~-~-> 00:27:19,110
1423 loss, more trades than they should. Over leveraging. That's
1424
1425 357
1426 00:27:19,110 ~-~-> 00:27:22,980
1427 the gambler. Every one of us has that person in us first to
1428
1429 358
1430 00:27:22,980 ~-~-> 00:27:29,760
1431 conquer. This next is the trader. The trader needs to know
1432
1433 359
1434 00:27:29,760 ~-~-> 00:27:33,900
1435 what he or she is going to do. And when where does that
1436
1437 360
1438 00:27:33,900 ~-~-> 00:27:37,560
1439 information come from? The analyst that's in all of us.
1440
1441 361
1442 00:27:38,700 ~-~-> 00:27:43,410
1443 Sadly, most Instagram celebrities are just the gamblers
1444
1445 362
1446 00:27:43,500 ~-~-> 00:27:47,760
1447 masquerading as traders that aren't even analysts. The
1448
1449 363
1450 00:27:47,760 ~-~-> 00:27:50,880
1451 analyst has the most sober opinion about what likely is
1452
1453 364
1454 00:27:50,880 ~-~-> 00:27:54,600
1455 going to occur and how to manage the expectations and
1456
1457 365
1458 00:27:55,290 ~-~-> 00:27:59,190
1459 executions that the trader in you should follow. So all of
1460
1461 366
1462 00:27:59,190 ~-~-> 00:28:01,200
1463 you have three personalities whether you want to admit it or
1464
1465 367
1466 00:28:01,200 ~-~-> 00:28:04,740
1467 not. That's what's going on, you're wrestling these three
1468
1469 368
1470 00:28:05,190 ~-~-> 00:28:08,250
1471 identities in each of us are always at odds with one
1472
1473 369
1474 00:28:08,250 ~-~-> 00:28:12,120
1475 another. But you have to trust one of them. And that is the
1476
1477 370
1478 00:28:12,120 ~-~-> 00:28:18,600
1479 analyst. The analyst in me is saying we are getting into an
1480
1481 371
1482 00:28:18,600 ~-~-> 00:28:25,920
1483 area where there's an on believable amount of risk that most
1484
1485 372
1486 00:28:25,920 ~-~-> 00:28:29,310
1487 people are just simply not talking about. It's all about
1488
1489 373
1490 00:28:29,310 ~-~-> 00:28:32,070
1491 getting rich. It's all about making money. It's about taking
1492
1493 374
1494 00:28:32,070 ~-~-> 00:28:40,470
1495 trade signals. Join my this and join my that I'm just trying
1496
1497 375
1498 00:28:40,470 ~-~-> 00:28:45,180
1499 to be a voice of reason, folks. I hope I'm wrong. I hope I'm
1500
1501 376
1502 00:28:45,180 ~-~-> 00:28:49,350
1503 wrong. But I wasn't wrong in 2016. Look at the state of the
1504
1505 377
1506 00:28:49,350 ~-~-> 00:28:53,220
1507 world. And in the US. I said the streets would be wild, wild
1508
1509 378
1510 00:28:53,220 ~-~-> 00:28:59,430
1511 west. And it is I say we will be polarized to a degree that
1512
1513 379
1514 00:28:59,430 ~-~-> 00:29:05,280
1515 we've never been before. And we are a try to impeach him.
1516
1517 380
1518 00:29:05,640 ~-~-> 00:29:07,110
1519 Well, they didn't impeach him, but he tried to remove him
1520
1521 381
1522 00:29:07,110 ~-~-> 00:29:12,750
1523 from office and I'm not here to defend Trump. Okay, I'm I'm
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1525 382
1526 00:29:12,750 ~-~-> 00:29:15,750
1527 disgusted by both of them. Really, if I want to be honest
1528
1529 383
1530 00:29:15,750 ~-~-> 00:29:21,780
1531 with you, I'm not happy with either one of them. But my
1532
1533 384
1534 00:29:21,780 ~-~-> 00:29:25,920
1535 opinion about that is of no importance. And frankly, you
1536
1537 385
1538 00:29:25,920 ~-~-> 00:29:29,490
1539 shouldn't even consider that. All I'm saying is that the
1540
1541 386
1542 00:29:29,490 ~-~-> 00:29:36,060
1543 environment that this entire thing is presenting us try to
1544
1545 387
1546 00:29:36,060 ~-~-> 00:29:41,490
1547 be sober in your thinking and just acknowledge the potential
1548
1549 388
1550 00:29:41,490 ~-~-> 00:29:47,880
1551 risks. Take a hiatus if this is the the only time that you
1552
1553 389
1554 00:29:47,880 ~-~-> 00:29:50,160
1555 go back to a demo account if you're trading with my funds,
1556
1557 390
1558 00:29:50,580 ~-~-> 00:29:58,230
1559 do it because the safety in that and the ability to preserve
1560
1561 391
1562 00:29:58,680 ~-~-> 00:30:05,340
1563 potential Cosmic losses is far better than going in there
1564
1565 392
1566 00:30:05,340 ~-~-> 00:30:08,490
1567 and rolling the dice and getting caught off side on
1568
1569 393
1570 00:30:08,490 ~-~-> 00:30:11,070
1571 something that you wish you would have never done.
1572
1573 394
1574 00:30:13,710 ~-~-> 00:30:15,720
1575 Maybe there won't be anything happening, maybe there won't
1576
1577 395
1578 00:30:15,720 ~-~-> 00:30:21,090
1579 be any big volatility move. I hope I'm wrong. I absolutely
1580
1581 396
1582 00:30:21,090 ~-~-> 00:30:28,710
1583 hope I'm wrong. But I knew something was coming in October
1584
1585 397
1586 00:30:28,770 ~-~-> 00:30:31,500
1587 last year, when I was operating on Twitter, which I don't
1588
1589 398
1590 00:30:31,500 ~-~-> 00:30:34,590
1591 have a Twitter account anymore. And I said that we're gonna
1592
1593 399
1594 00:30:34,590 ~-~-> 00:30:36,930
1595 have some real problems here and Something Wicked is coming.
1596
1597 400
1598 00:30:38,310 ~-~-> 00:30:43,560
1599 And then everybody got sick. And then I said the day before
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1601 401
1602 00:30:43,560 ~-~-> 00:30:47,520
1603 the stock market crashes, we're going to crash. And we did.
1604
1605 402
1606 00:30:52,500 ~-~-> 00:30:59,550
1607 I have a bigger sense of urgency in me screaming this to say
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1609 403
1610 00:30:59,550 ~-~-> 00:31:02,460
1611 what I'm saying that's all. You don't have to like me,
1612
1613 404
1614 00:31:02,460 ~-~-> 00:31:05,280
1615 folks. You could be the guy or gal that's thumbing down my
1616
1617 405
1618 00:31:05,280 ~-~-> 00:31:12,150
1619 video. If you are speculating. Just consider the potential
1620
1621 406
1622 00:31:12,150 ~-~-> 00:31:21,330
1623 risks. That's all I'm saying. Or choose not to. Until next
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1625 407
1626 00:31:21,330 ~-~-> 00:31:22,590
1627 time, wish good luck and good trading.