ICT YT - 2020-09-26 - ICT Institutional Price Action - Micro-Market Structure and Time and Price Concepts - Part 2.srt
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ICT: Hi, folks, welcome back, we're gonna continue our
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lecture on micro market structure and time and price
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concepts. I'm going to build a little bit on your
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understanding of my order block theory. So if we are looking
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at indices or index futures, specifically, as we refer to
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last time we were together, we're looking at the E mini s&p
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December contract for 2020. And if you recall, if you have
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not watched the previous recording, then please stop this
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video and watch the other one. It's not a very long video.
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So it helps build a little bit of the foundation, also
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referring back to this candle. So we look at price action,
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like this is a daily chart, I want you to confer with the
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direction where's it been going? Okay, so if we're gonna be
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using micro market structure that's like the very, very low
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timeframe, intraday charts. There are some out there that
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say that there's just noise on these lower timeframe charts.
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And if you really take a step back and think about it,
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that's actually impossible. It's impossible. Okay for that
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to be true, because it's the same price. So the fact that
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we're measuring the fluctuations on the basis of a specific
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time interval, that's where the confusion comes in. Because
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it becomes a question of, what timeframe do I use? Which is,
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the better timeframe? Is it a one minute chart, is it a two
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minute chart, a seven minute chart a five minute, you know,
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you can use any lower timeframe chart you want. But if you
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really want to get ultra tight with your entries and stop
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loss orders, the five or one minute chart is the best in
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terms of doing that, but you have to understand what you're
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looking for. Otherwise, you will get burned. Alright, so
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I've covered in many videos over the last 10 years dealing
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specifically with forex, and teaching some of my concepts
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with that asset class. And many of you are familiar with my
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time and price theory. I've done videos on that and
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tutorials, and it's made its way in many of my lectures. And
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you all understand and have been introduced to my ICT order
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block theory. So while I mentioned this specific candle last
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time, as a bearish order block, and how we can use the low
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of that candle, and again, I'm going to count you to look at
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this price up here. So the price comes in at 30 to 56 and a
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half. Okay, so 30 to 56 and a half, we can use that level
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when we're bearish. So the market has been going lower. And
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to avoid all of the necessities of trying to pick a bottom
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in a bear market, you just simply focus on the upclose
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candles. If we get an upclose candle while orderflow is down
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or trend or momentum, however you want to refer to it. But
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this is how the interbank traders will focus in on key price
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levels on the lower timeframe for entry. Now, you're also
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going to hear hedge fund managers, bank traders don't use
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one minute charts. Well, that's true in a sense, but they're
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waiting for something specific on the chart to appear to
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initiate their engagement. So I'm gonna teach a little bit
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of that, and I introduced it in the last video, but I want
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to build on a little bit here and still try to keep the
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video short. So we have this level here and we're going to
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look at Friday's price action. Now notice Friday's price
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action is a nice bullish candle. Now it didn't have a whole
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lot of range, but it was respectable. And it did trade
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deeper into this upclose candle. It does not matter because
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if we're trading micro market structure, what we're
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essentially doing is we're trading the intraday volatility,
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both directions up and down. But how can you determine which
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side of the marketplace has the more likely probability
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using order block theory? Well, let's go back down into a
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lower timeframe. Okay, so here we have the E mini s&p
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December contract for 2020. And we are dialed in on a five
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minute chart. Now I want you to take a look at this price
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action. Pause the video, study it for a little while and
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come up with what you think you see in this price action.
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And then when you're ready, unpause the video and I'll
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continue to lecture with you
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All right. So as you can see price has been meandering
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around in here consolidating, and then finally made its way
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lower. And then it had a another drop here, a little bit of
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a retracement in here. And price had a nice sell off trading
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down below the 32 08 level. If we break this down and add
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that same daily key level, that's that 30 to 56 and a half.
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And then we incorporate the aspects of time. Because price
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by itself doesn't mean anything. It's not price and time.
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It's time and price. That's how the algorithm operates. It
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may sound like arguing semantics. But it's absolutely
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crucial that you understand that time is the first factor in
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how prices delivered. Once you have a specific window of
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time, when the algorithm will operate and run on its macro.
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And again, a macro is a shortlist of processes that go in
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action for either running to a specific pool of liquidity or
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to a period of time where the market was inefficiently
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delivered. And therefore rebalancing. There's only two
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things that occur in price. It runs to liquidity, either by
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side liquidity above old highs, or it runs sellside
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liquidity below old lows, or it runs to an area of
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inefficiency in the sense that it wants to rebounds. So with
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those two ideas in mind, I want you to remember that we were
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looking at the EMAS p on the daily chart, I've already
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suggested that we should focus on delivery on the downside,
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so attacking, so side delivery. So you have to look for
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where does sell side liquidity reside? Well, if you're
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looking at London open kills him on Friday. And that begins
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at two o'clock in the morning and ends at five o'clock in
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the morning. Okay, so once we have that period, on our
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chart, we're hunting in this area for a specific phone and
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on. Now that phenomenon is what I talked about in the last
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video, where we have an order block, which you can see the
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price trades up to it here. Here, that red line is what I'm
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referring to here, here, here here. What's going on there?
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Is that resistance? Or is that an algorithm holding price?
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At this level? They're accumulating short positions. So now
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if we are looking at this area up here, and they're shorting
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and again, they collectively are the real smart money, not
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Goldman Sachs, not city, there are lower rung entity in the
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grand scheme of things. Okay. So if we look at that area
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right here, the order blocking itself, if we're using higher
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timeframe, you have to wait for price to show its hand. What
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does that mean? Does it mean get right in at the order
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block? Not if it's a higher timeframe order block? No. So
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you wait for time of day now we're in a kill zone. London
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wait for price to show wants to go away. In this case lower
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because order flow on a daily chart is bearish. So we're
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waiting for displacement lower during two o'clock to five
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o'clock in the morning. Do you see it? Right here. This
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displacement right here. Now right away, some of you that
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are familiar with my content would say okay, you have to
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look at the upclose candle or candles that are consecutive,
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like this one here like 123 that would be your order block
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your bearish order block if it trades back up to it once it
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trades below it. Well it does it here and then do we get a
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little displacement. Yes, it starts to run. This one has
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already been used. So as we start to retrace higher rate in
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here, that candle is what you would be using for your order
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block. So you have this price run here. And then this order
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block, what's the low on that candle? You're gonna look at
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this price right here. Okay, focus there. The low on that
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candle comes in at 3243 even. Okay, 32 43.00 the high on
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this candle comes in exactly at 32 43.00
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again, folks perfect It's perfect. It's not close, it's
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almost made it, it's perfect. It can only happen that way.
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If these markets are running on an algorithm. what time of
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day would this pattern form if it's running on a program?
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Well, a very specific element of time. That's why I teach
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them open kills in the New York open kills on the London
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close kill zone in the New York, close kill zone, and Asia.
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That's how many opportunities exist every single day. You
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don't need to be a London open trader, if you can't be up
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overnight, and you live in the States, then trade New York,
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or trade London close, or New York close, or Asia. But you
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don't need to be in London. But now if you want to be a
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London trader, and you can use micro market structure
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concepts, as I'm teaching in this series here, you want to
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be looking for a displacement lower moving away from a
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higher timeframe order block, we've already seen the
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inability for the price to get above that level, that red
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level, it's the order block on the daily chart, price moves
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away. We have an order block, we trade up into it. And we
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have a very clear, obvious old low, which is so sign
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liquidity. So now what we're saying, in essence, is that
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we're looking for this area here
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to be matched up with this area here. So smart money
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operates on there, what I teach is market efficiency
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paradigm. That means when you look at the marketplace, when
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you as a retail trader look at price, you're looking at
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patterns, you're looking at indicators, you're looking for
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entry, and not so much on a stop loss because most retail
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traders don't want to use a stop loss. They think if it
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stops me out, yeah, I'm wrong. Well, you need to have a
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shield. You can't just go in here with swinging a sword, you
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need to have a defense mechanism. And that is a stop loss.
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And that is what real professionals use. They don't trade
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with a mental stop and or disregard it entirely. You have to
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measure and assume risk if you're trading in these markets,
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so it's good to train yourself to believe that what you're
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doing is the right thing to do, despite what many other
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people on the internet might tell you. So we have smart
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money selling short here. We're not looking at patterns.
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We're not looking at resistance support. We're not looking
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at supply and demand. We're not looking at Elliott Wave,
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we're not looking at that stuff. Okay, we're looking at the
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paradigm between where smart money would enter and where
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would Smart Money look to exit. You may not subscribe to the
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quote unquote they or smart money. But just for the sake of
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discussion, let's assume that they do exist. I believe they
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do. But let's assume that you don't believe it. But this,
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you know, just missed all that for a second. If they
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existed, and they're selling short up here, okay, they're
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selling as people are chasing this higher every time it
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makes a little bit of headway above that red line. buyers
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are using as a breakout. They're buying, buying, buying who
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is giving them the other side of their buy their long trade,
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smart money is selling that to them. So if the Smart Money
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is short, where's the ideal scenario for smart money to get
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out? a pattern, a harmonic pattern, an Elliott Wave, a
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supply and demand zone or the obvious Counterparty to what
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they use to enter the position. If they are selling to
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buyers up here. They are going to look to pair their order
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for exiting that short with existing sellers. That's what's
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residing below here. Sell stops. So what they're going to do
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is they're going to sell short here and look to buy it back
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from willing sellers at a lower price that are just waiting
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to be tagged. So the market efficiency paradigm is this.
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Smart Money sells. Them buys it back from retail traders
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that have sell stops resting below old lows. Everything is
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upside down folks. Everything that you think about the
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marketplace, everything you think about technical analysis,
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it's inverted. And you have to reverse that school of
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thought and then everything will start falling into place
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but as long as you struggle to defend your retail logic
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against people like me You're going to break and I'm going
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to be a frustration to you versus a help. Because that's why
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I'm doing this. I'm not here to say, look how foolish all of
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you are. Because I used to subscribe to this stuff, too. I
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want you to test it. Look at it like this. And I promise
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you, if you spend one month looking at charts like that, all
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the retail stuff starts to feel foolish to consider. And
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then when you start looking at how the real professionals,
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real professionals, look at price action, everything makes
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more sense. It's not just simply, oh, it's a stop hunt. Oh,
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it's a support broken term resistance. No, there's a
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narrative that's going on. And it's operating on a very
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specific element. I told you this level, in the previous
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video, it was in your awareness. So we're not predicting a
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down close day, we're focusing on micro market structure. I
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get thousands of emails asking all the time, how was I doing
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those trades buying and selling and buying and selling in
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the same day? Well, a lot of it has to do with things I'm
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not going to teach. But I will share some things and give
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you part of a view where some of the setups were framed on
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things like I'm showing you here, but not all of them there.
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So and I think it's reasonable everyone out there should
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really accept the fact that if someone knows something, and
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it's extremely technical, and it's highly sought after,
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you're not going to teach everything, okay, you're going to
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keep something for yourself and for your family. And I don't
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believe that's selfish, because I have spent 10 years
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teaching forex, for free. And while I do have a mentorship,
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I'm still here doing this for free. So again, take the value
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that I'm giving you, and you don't have to like me, but just
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look at it. I'm challenging you to look at your charts a
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little bit differently. And I promise you will improve, I
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promise you, you will improve. Like it's it's a night and
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day difference once you see it. But what are we looking for
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specifically, we want to see the price move away, but not
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just drift away, we want to see it drive hard away, because
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what the indicators are telling you is something altogether
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different. Whereas if we're reading price prices indicating,
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okay, yeah, we're reaching for something. And what we're
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reaching for is the liquidity resting below this low.
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Remember, the daily chart order flow is bearish. So I'm
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going to be looking at key levels and selling short with
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intraday volatility. At a time of day, when I know the
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algorithm will start really operating and running on its own
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macro, that means it's going to be reaching for a
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predetermined level that we can clearly see if we understand
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the market efficiency paradigm. That means we look at price
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how smart money looks at price, we don't look at patterns,
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we look on the basis of liquidity, imbalance, rebounds,
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that's it. That's it, there's a two by side liquidity run
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sellside liquidity run or inefficient, run rebalanced or run
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to make inefficient. That's that's the only things you need
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to understand about price. It's not an over simplification,
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obviously. And it's not an over complication. There are four
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specific things, there are four pillars of understanding
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what price is doing. The fifth element is time. That's what
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we're looking at here. So we see price moving away from that
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order block. You don't need to be in at the order block.
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Don't think that you need to do that on a higher timeframe
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level, you just need to see Do we have proof that prices are
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wanting to go lower away from it. And we have that then we
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have consolidation and then we drive lower? first level
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would have been here. So you could be short already there
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and your stop loss would be there. But say you missed it.
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Okay, from this price run here. Where's the order block
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there? So if we look at that, and put a line rate on that
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low right there. The high 30 to 43. The low 30 to 43 perfect
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delivery of price. sell short there. And where's it going to
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go? Well, we're going to aim for a level below this swing
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low because it's gonna be what residing below their cell
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stops. Why should it go there? Think Why should price from
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here drop below that low. It's not support Because that
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logic says, if it's going to go down, it's going to go down
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to that level here in bounce. That's what I was taught in
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all the books I had. Think that's what you're taught. If it
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goes down here, it's a buy, they're not teaching you to
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target that low. And the liquidity below that that's what I
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teach. That's what Smart Money traders do. In indices, and
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in stocks. And in futures, and commodities, and bonds, you
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see where I'm going with this, right? You need to stop
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drinking from the pool. Because the waters tainted and
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stopped reading your books, because those things are
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poisoning your perception. If we take the kill zone, lines
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off, I don't have these things on my chart. When I look at
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price, there's nothing on the chart, zero. Now I might make
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an annotation, you know, a text thing for myself to read,
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remember a specific level. But I'm not drawing all this
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stuff out. I'm drawing all these things on my chart. So it
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can be taught and learned by you. So you can visually see
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what I'm internalizing in the price. So when I'm looking at
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price, I don't have all this stuff on there. Because number
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one, it's going to be a distraction. I know in my head when
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I'm looking for, but you as a developing student learning my
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way of thought process, price action, institution order
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flow, institutional trading, smart money trading all that.
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For you to understand it, you have to see these things
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applied to the chart, because it will
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solidify the concept over and over again, repetitive
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examples will just basically burn the image in your brain.
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But we have an optimal trade entry here. Okay, so we have
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this run here. So we have 123 candles up, and we have this
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swing low here. Alright, so we have the fib on the high and
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the low. And you can see the 62% retracement level, or maybe
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you can't. It says 30 to 43 00. Perfect. Okay. Again, it's
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not the fact that the Fibonacci sweet spot, optimal trade
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entry, all that stuff. That's just from me to teach you a
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good area to aim for. It doesn't necessarily need to trade
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at that level for me to enter. But we can see that we trade
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to optimal trade entry. And if it breaks this low, how far
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can it go? Well, our target is something below this low
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here. So look at the fib what's below that we have 32 1550
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Then we have 32 07 even 32 07 even that's what this line is
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here and trades down to that line here on this candle. The
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low comes in at 32 06 point five zero. That's one half of a
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standard handle in the E mini s&p or basically we're talking
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about $25 so it was off by $25 in terms of projecting a low
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target that would be below here at a guy on YouTube. He made
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a comment in recent video his he said you know you're trying
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to tell me to ICT knows how far it's going to go below an
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old low. Yeah, just watch my PG. I'm teaching you right
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here. Anyway, it price has a nice run from 30 to 43 to
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32 07. That's 36 handles in the Standard and Poor's futures
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contract 36 handles hooks when I was trading back in the
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90s. And I transitioned from trading grains and live cattle
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and copper and all the regular commodity markets. I
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transitioned into bonds, and then by trading bonds, I got
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enticed into trading s&p, we had hoped that we would get
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three full handles for our trade. That was the type of
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volatility we had back then. Three. I just showed you 36
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using this method, okay. So we're applying an element of
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precision that nothing else out there delivers. And everyone
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that can watch my videos and this is why folks don't like
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any thumbs down the video despite I'm giving you gold, okay,
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I'm literally laying gold and in lottery tickets in your
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hands for next week and months and years to come. But they
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don't like hearing me say nothing's like this and nothing's
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better. But folks, how can you improve on perfection? I
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mean, seriously, forget who I am. If you and I were just
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sitting here talking about any other topic and we clearly
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see an element of perfection. Perfection. How is that a
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staged arguing? Anyone? Looking at this can see it's
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perfect. It's not flawed. It's not muddy. It's not it works.
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Sometimes it's working every day, every day. So I'm here to
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keep you inspired, and working towards improving. But if you
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don't study, all of these things don't really matter. It's
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just you're watching videos that are going to be watched by
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other people too. And they're going to start going into the
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charts and looking for these things that repeat over and
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over and over again. Now, once it gets below this low, here,
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and it trades down and takes that liquidity out, the shorts
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that the Smart Money have traded with up here and looking to
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buy back below here to sell stocks that are waiting to be
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filled in triggered. Once that's done, my intraday sentiment
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shifts, I'm now thinking, Okay, we ran sell side liquidity,
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where is the nearest buy side liquidity here? And they think
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and run above here, what next? What at Target, it would
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target this. And what did they leave up here? Relative equal
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highs. So what's residing above here by sign liquidity.
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So in addition to closing shorts from up here, below this
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low, smart money now is accumulating long positions. So
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they're going to buy sell stops with the intent that they're
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going to sell them to. Buyers up here with the buy sell
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liquidity. So that's the market efficiency paradigm, you
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need to know by looking at the chart, day of the week, time
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of day, sentiment ideas, not sentiment in the sense that
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we're measuring it in an indicator, but based on what has
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recently transpired in price, has it taken out stops that's
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below the marketplace, okay? Then it's either going to go up
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to rebound, something inefficient, or it's going to go up to
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take out by stops. That's the only two things that can
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happen, folks. That's it. Nothing else. No patterns, nothing
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harmonic. No waves from Elliott. No Dow Theory, nothing like
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that needs to be referred to at all. Its liquidity, rebound,
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rebalance imbalance. That's it, buy side, sell side,
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inefficient delivery, rebounds to efficient delivery, and
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then add an element of time, then you have the understanding
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of what price is doing. Now, there's narratives that you
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need to understand and how that fits in the grand scheme of
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things. But if we're talking about intraday volatility on a
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micro scale like this, then it's not that important, as long
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as you have one key level that we can operate on. And that
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level is this bearish order block. That's from the daily
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chart. But if you want to focus only in the direction of the
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highest probability trades and filter out, possibly being
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wrong, going long, intraday, then this is how you do it. But
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once you get your objective below the sell side liquidity
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you're done. That's it, you don't turn it into a long term
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trade, you're not a swing trader, you know, a position
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trader, you're getting out, you're collecting your chips,
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cashing in, and you're coming back the next day. That's how
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day traders live and thrive. They don't go in here and keep
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throwing dice, throwing the dice on the dice. But let's take
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a look at what happened later on in the day. the sell side
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of equities taken comes back down hits that same old low
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rallies up and clears all the buy side liquidity above these
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highs here would run into the clothes on Friday. So when you
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look at things like this, it should be very fascinating. At
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least it was for me when I started seeing it and studying
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it. When I saw these things in 1995. It changed everything
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from me. It made me feel like I should be expecting a knock
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at my door anytime. Like I had some forbidden knowledge.
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That's what it felt like, okay, and it grew from here. And I
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got more insights and more details and more precision
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elements. And everything started coming together with this
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00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:43,500
beautiful tapestry of amazing, highly detailed processes
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that the markets actually repeat and do every single day and
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every single week. Now here's the wonderful thing. When you
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start knowing these things, you'll find that there are times
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of the year seasonal tendencies, that specific markets will
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tend to do Bigger moves. And you can use these elements like
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this, to position yourself in trades that may be longer
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term. But if you're only going to be a intraday trader, you
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need to refine this art in this timeframe only and avoid
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trying to say okay, well, I'm smarter than I really am
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before you are. And overstaying your welcome into position,
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you don't want to do that. Because if you use the things I'm
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showing you here, you're going to find setups a lot, you're
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going to find lots and lots of setups. And you're not
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limited to just that daily chart for an order block to base
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your trade on, you can use a four hour chart. So you have a
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daily and a four hour if you use that idea. And just wait
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for these levels. To give you an indication, what I've
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taught you here is to trade off of key levels, with a bias
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relative to its timeframes downwards at the four hour has
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been dropping, okay, that's even greater if the daily has
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been dropping. So you're really in sync with higher
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timeframe order flow, you're not trying to predict the
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bottom. And if the markets been going up, you're not trying
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to predict the top, because intraday volatility is going to
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00:31:17,010 --> 00:31:20,520
serve you well, if you're just looking on the basis of
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00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,610
running to an old, low or an old high,
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00:31:24,330 --> 00:31:27,030
because you're reaching for liquidity, you're still gonna
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have losing trades. So if you make the mistake of trading
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with my funds with this idea, expect to lose money, you're
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going to lose money, everyone loses money, period, you're
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00:31:35,250 --> 00:31:37,770
going to have losing trades, your stops, you're going to hit
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sometimes the trade won't pan out, you'll be wrong, you'll
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00:31:40,740 --> 00:31:45,450
read it wrong. Or despite it looking as if it's perfect, it
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00:31:45,450 --> 00:31:48,150
will fail, it may not go anywhere, it may just go into
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consolidation. And then you'll have to have a time stop. How
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00:31:52,260 --> 00:31:54,120
long are you going to hold on to a trade that isn't panning
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out? Well, if we leave the kills him in London, and we start
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going into a time of day after 5am, and it's not moving,
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00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,150
it's best many times is to kill the trade and then wait for
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00:32:06,180 --> 00:32:09,840
New York setup. Don't hold on to something that you're
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00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:14,130
worrying about. And many of you probably trade during work
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00:32:14,130 --> 00:32:16,560
hours, and you're really not being efficient for your
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00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,680
employer, you're not being a good steward there. And you're
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making yourself miserable. So if you only trade during the
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kill zones, New York being seven o'clock in the morning to
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nine o'clock in the morning, there's your sweet spot, or you
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00:32:29,430 --> 00:32:33,000
can use the 830 to 11 o'clock, optimal trade entry pattern
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recognition series, New York session window, knew that that
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takes into consideration the 830 News embargo lifting in
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London clothes. So you have two major factors, they're
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providing a beginning and an ending where majority of the
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00:32:51,570 --> 00:32:55,560
moves are going to occur. Because you're letting price wait
462
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,010
for the news events, whatever volatility is injected after
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00:32:59,010 --> 00:33:01,950
that until the London close and then volume starts to Peter
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00:33:01,950 --> 00:33:06,390
off on the daily for for that particular asset around 11
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00:33:06,390 --> 00:33:12,540
o'clock to 12 o'clock. And to make it easy, just it's two
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00:33:12,540 --> 00:33:16,620
o'clock to five o'clock in London open seven to nine, New
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00:33:16,620 --> 00:33:24,300
York 830 to 11, New York session, London, closed 10 to noon.
468
00:33:26,310 --> 00:33:30,540
And ages 7pm to 9pm. And these are all Eastern Standard
469
00:33:30,540 --> 00:33:35,790
times. And that's going to be pretty much it. When you're
470
00:33:35,790 --> 00:33:39,870
trading late New York. It's the session I showed you using
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00:33:39,870 --> 00:33:42,840
the equities afternoon trend. It's one o'clock in the
472
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,780
afternoon to four o'clock in the afternoon, Eastern Standard
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00:33:45,780 --> 00:33:49,200
Time. So that way you have all my kill zones, you have
474
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,290
again, the New York session kills in that I don't want to
475
00:33:52,290 --> 00:33:56,220
call it kill zone. That's the New York session for the
476
00:33:56,220 --> 00:33:58,500
optimal trade entry pattern recognition series. You know,
477
00:33:58,500 --> 00:34:01,920
when I talk about when to look for it, that's a nice window
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00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,470
of opportunity to look for it there. But in my own personal
479
00:34:04,470 --> 00:34:07,110
trading, there's lots of trades that I'll take between seven
480
00:34:07,110 --> 00:34:10,380
o'clock and nine o'clock in the morning. That will be ahead
481
00:34:10,410 --> 00:34:14,100
of the news that comes out. And I'll always trade ahead of
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00:34:14,100 --> 00:34:16,500
the news. Depending on what type of news event comes out. It
483
00:34:16,500 --> 00:34:18,690
could be a high impact news event that says I'll wait for
484
00:34:18,690 --> 00:34:21,750
that. But if it's a medium impact news event, or no news is
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00:34:21,780 --> 00:34:26,040
expected for that currencies on trading. Or in this case in
486
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,430
the sea, then I'm not I'm not worried about this take a
487
00:34:29,430 --> 00:34:33,300
trade before 830 is not anticipate 830 fueling the fire that
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00:34:33,300 --> 00:34:36,600
I have already set between seven o'clock and more than 830.
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00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:40,260
So hopefully you got something out of this one. We'll
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00:34:40,260 --> 00:34:43,590
continue this series and refine a little bit more and bring
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00:34:43,590 --> 00:34:46,650
some more insights about order blocks because apparently
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00:34:46,650 --> 00:34:48,600
YouTube needs it because there's a lot of misinformation
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00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,540
going on. But you don't need to enter exactly at the order
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00:34:51,540 --> 00:34:53,880
block. If you have a hard time frame order block. All you're
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00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,480
doing is waiting to see if it's willing to move and at a
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00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:01,200
specific time of day and then find your liquidity pool and
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00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,720
set targets. And that's pretty much it. Until next time,
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00:35:03,720 --> 00:35:05,100
wish you good luck and good trading.