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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-11-20 17:06
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3 ICT: Welcome back, folks, just a quick little video on the
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7 market environment for your dollar. In kinda like recap on
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11 what I mentioned in the previous recording for the YouTube
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15 channel, so I mentioned on the Euro, we would most likely
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19 sweep that 118 50 level and directly related to this high
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23 these relatively equal highs, and I said we would likely see
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27 it, run those, and we got it on Thursday today, August
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31 27 2020. The economic calendar came with, obviously the Fed
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35 Chairman Powell speaking in New York session His comments
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39 were basically in line with allowing the current environment
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43 to remain intact. So that was met with a repricing
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47 aggressively higher and lower. Now, in the comments I've
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51 been placing on my community tab on the inner circle trader
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55 YouTube channel. I mentioned the importance of market
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59 profiles. Now when I say that invariably people that trade
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63 market profile, they will think that I'm referring to that
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67 and that's not what I'm referring to. Market profiling, by
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71 my definition is very specific. Like, templates, okay. How
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75 the market should pan out or or deliver in price. One of the
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79 hardest ones to operate in Is Seek and Destroy, as I
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83 mentioned, on the community tab this week, and we are
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87 looking at that profile. Okay, so one of the things I get
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91 questioned a lot about an email from members that follow
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95 this YouTube channel. And my teachings is how to know when a
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99 market environment is a seek and destroy. Because if you can
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103 learn those characteristics, those traits, then hopefully,
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107 you will avoid demolishing your account and trading back and
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111 forth, you're trying to capture the next big move, because
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115 that's generally what this profile will end up enticing
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119 traders to do. A big move will happen on the upside, and
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123 they'll think it's either a reversal or it's a continuation,
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127 and it's just back and forth and just completely grind you
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131 down. So I don't want to speak to much about this, cuz
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135 obviously most of you are not going to see value in this
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139 because you probably really knew. And you want to see me
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143 point to this is a buy signal and this is a sell signal.
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147 This is a secret order block. This is the secret breaker,
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151 all those things, I think if you were versed enough, or at
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155 least seasoned with trading with live funds and have lost
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159 money, a discussion like this, even though it may be as
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163 brief as it is, will be more meaningful to you. Now, if
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167 you're a new trader or student, that idea will go right over
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171 your head, okay, not because of a lack of intelligence. It's
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175 just because your perception and perspective on the
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179 marketplace is not yet in line with what would be closely
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183 related to someone who has engaged in real risk. Okay, so
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187 one The main focuses of my channel here is to help you avoid
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191 pain and pain. in its purest sense in trading is the
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195 removal funds.
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199 When you are no longer solvent, okay, you blow your account
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203 and that's what I'm trying to help you avoid because if you
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207 can avoid doing that you'll stay in the game long enough to
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211 find your own method and own approach to using the things
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215 that I teach. Okay, so right away, you can see that we have
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219 had a market it is been range bound, okay, it's been
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223 consolidating. And when you see markets that are stuck like
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227 this, right away, my mind says, Okay, try not to expect the
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231 whole lot in terms of big moves higher or lower, and watch
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235 how price tends to gravitate back to the middle, okay or
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239 equilibrium. There may be quick surges of price movement
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243 higher That fizzle out quickly, and then it pulls back to
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247 the middle. And then there'll be moves that drop down
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251 quickly. It fizzles out and come straight back to the middle
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255 range as well. So if you look at how the market has just
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259 moved back and forth all week until today, Thursday, we had
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263 this event here, which is what I was suggesting at, we would
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267 run the 118 50 buyside liquidity. And if you watch the video
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271 I put on prior to this one, you'll actually hear me say that
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275 that's what we were doing. And I covered the difference
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279 between wycoff and into interbank price delivery algorithm.
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283 And when you look at price action like this, it's not hard
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287 to understand how it's being controlled and it's
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291 manipulated. So if you look at the annotations I'm going to
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295 put here it's really simple stuff. We're looking at Monday's
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299 high here, and then Wednesday's low and All the vital
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303 liquidity there will be resting above these levels here.
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307 That's what I took your attention to. I said that we would
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311 look for this event here. Now this was a lot more than I
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315 personally expected. So I didn't expect this much of a run
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319 up just today. I didn't expect that. So I'm not going to sit
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323 here and tell you Yeah, I saw this coming. I traded it. I
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327 didn't, I didn't have any participation in any all that. So
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331 I didn't see it coming. I wasn't able to capitalize on any
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335 of it. And the fact that we have Jackson Hole today, and if
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339 you don't know what that is, it's basically when all the the
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343 folks come together to help formulate the, the next agenda.
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347 I'll just say it that way. And they have a lot of influence
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351 in the marketplace and the things that they talk about the
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355 things that they're planning. Sometimes they get leaked,
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359 sometimes they don't and again, without trying To sound to
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363 tinfoil hat, just know that it can create volatility. The
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367 marketplace now introduced that also with the Fed chair
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371 speaking today. And dawn in New York session, and we got
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375 this here. Okay, now this is still an optimal trade entry
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379 here and a run above the 1850 level that I hinted at that
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383 you should be focusing on this week. expanded my 51 pips
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387 beyond that quickly reversed and traded all the way back
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391 down and took out Wednesday's low so that was the intro
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395 week, the lowest low of the week. It took that out and now
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399 we went right back to the middle of the range. Okay, so if
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403 you don't know what a Seek and Destroy market profile is,
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407 that's what it looks like right here. This is what it looks
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411 like. So in your own journals and your own note taking you
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415 want to print this out. Not, not necessarily my chart but
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419 you want to do it on your own platform, and then save those
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423 charts and then study how prices moved back and forth, but
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427 generally back into consolidation. So now what does it mean?
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431 What do you do with this information? Well, this is why I
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435 sit on my hands and I try not to engage the marketplace. And
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439 as I mentioned on my community tab on the YouTube channel, I
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443 put levels on and I watch to see if they get checked. Okay,
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447 now when a levels checked, I want to see how it trades after
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451 it hits it. Obviously the 118 50 level, we breached it, and
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455 then quickly gave up the ghost and went right back down
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459 below. Wednesday's low. So this liquidity was also taken as
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463 well. So think about what's happened here. We've
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467 consolidated the entire week. Then Powell comes out, gives
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471 us a jawboning
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475 markets react with a run here and then collapses and then
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479 right back to the middle. So what are we left with Right
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483 now, uncertainty, okay, there's no clear indication, at
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487 least for me, okay, so I'm kind of like showing you my hand.
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491 And I've already elaborated on it in the community tab in my
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495 posts. But when you see a market environment like this, or
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499 at least I see it like this, I'm not in a hurry to take a
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503 trade, because we haven't had really any displacement. We've
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507 had a run on liquidity, both sides and we're back in the
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511 middle. There is no clear, discernible direction as of right
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515 now at this moment. Now, there are things that could lead to
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519 a directional bias unfolding over the coming days and weeks.
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523 But as for right now, gun to my head, I have to fold my
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527 hands and say there's nothing I can do here. There's nothing
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531 there's absolutely no, there's no trade here for me
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535 personally, that I would feel comfortable assuming the risk
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539 on so As I was building up into this discussion, we were
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543 looking at market profiles for a point of discussion on the
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547 community tab on the YouTube channel. And you can see the
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551 effects of it here. Okay, so again, in summary, when we see
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555 market environments that are consolidating, okay, now, this
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559 is spread out over the entire week. So this would be a, this
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563 will be a Seek and Destroy market profile for a weekly
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567 profile. And it can exist in intraday where we have market
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571 environments that have consolidations, and then it has a
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575 whipsaw effect, and it goes right back to the middle of the
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579 range. So we don't want to operate or engage the market.
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583 When it's like this. We want to wait for the large funds to
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587 start building in positions and allow the central bank to
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591 provide the liquidity for that and then these larger moves
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595 when they start and they become very clear in the charts.
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599 Then it's easy to ride the coattails. But until we get those
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603 very clear indications and price action, we are sitting on
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607 our hands. And there's absolutely no shame in that there's
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611 no fear of missing a move. And we're not feeling impulsive
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615 to chase any little minor reaction, if you will, in price,
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619 and we're not believing that we can forecast the next big
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623 price move higher or lower when it's in this environment. We
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627 let the professionals at the Central Bank level in the large
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631 funds, do their dance together. Okay, whatever the large
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635 funds start building in, in terms of the next position, the
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639 central banks will facilitate that and allow the liquidity
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643 for them to do so. Right now, it's not clear as to what that
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647 is yet. And when it starts to develop, it'll be clear it'll
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651 be obvious we will leave the range that was created today.
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655 Moving below this low or above this high in a decisive
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659 manner and then we can watch price for the next month, the
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663 three months in terms of what the next directional bias
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667 would be, as of right now, if you were trading euro, or
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671 really majority of the pairs right now, you're gambling,
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675 you're absolutely gambling because there's no clear
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679 discernible direction. For any of them at the moment, we
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683 could be in transition where there could be a longer term
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687 trend change, which I try not to forecast and try to pick
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691 bottoms and tops. I don't try to do that. Or we could just
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695 be in a long pause that continues higher for euro and lower
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699 for dollar. So because of that 5050 nature, I don't trade
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703 with 5050 gearing, I don't like to see those types of
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707 setups. I want to know what the bank is most likely going to
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711 reprice to higher or lower and if it's not one sided, then
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715 I'm not engaging. Now I can share my ideas and comments and
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719 suggest about what might take place. But that's not the same
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723 as putting down money in a trade and saying, I'm going to
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727 assume risk on that. So regardless of where you are in your
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731 journey, as a trader, it's important to understand topics
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735 like this because it gives you the confidence and the
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739 patience that's required to sit still, and not feel the
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743 impulse to go into the marketplace and trade. Because
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747 there's not always a time to be doing something. Okay? Many
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751 times you're going to be doing nothing. And knowing when not
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755 to do anything, is wisdom. And when you have that wisdom,
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759 it allows you to operate objectively in the marketplace and
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763 you don't feel the effects of fear and greed or fear of
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767 missing out on anything. And if you can conquer that,
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771 regardless of where you are in your development. That's one
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775 of the major hurdles in consistency. Because if you can
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779 cross that and understand why You're not looking to take a
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783 trade, why are you willing to sit on the sidelines and not
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786 00:14:05,160 ~-~-> 00:14:08,760
787 even care too much about what the price is doing? Because
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791 eventually, there's going to be some excitement to come into
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795 the marketplace and be more meaningful than we see here.
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799 Okay. So I just want to kind of comment on it a little bit
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803 and bring the light a little bit more to what I was saying
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807 in the community tab. And hopefully now you can see with a
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811 chart in front of us what Seek and Destroy looks like it's a
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815 lot of volatility that goes right to liquidity, and then
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819 back to the middle. And while that is, in theory, tradable,
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823 it has to be done. So in a nimble fashion, and most traders
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826 00:14:47,430 ~-~-> 00:14:51,990
827 aren't that nimble. So hopefully you got something out of
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831 this. I know it's not an exciting topic, but is one that is
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834 00:14:55,680 ~-~-> 00:14:58,830
835 necessary for you to have longevity in this industry. So I'm
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839 Todd, talk to you next time. Good luck and good trading.