Wiki source code of ICT YT - 2020-01-28 - Forex Price Action Discussion - AudUsd.srt
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1 | 1 | ||
2 | 00:00:07,680 ~-~-> 00:00:08,220 | ||
3 | ICT: Hey, folks, | ||
4 | |||
5 | 2 | ||
6 | 00:00:09,240 ~-~-> 00:00:15,690 | ||
7 | it's been a while since I've put something up on my YouTube channel. So it's | ||
8 | nice for you to stop by and take a look at what I'm going to share with you | ||
9 | |||
10 | 3 | ||
11 | 00:00:15,690 ~-~-> 00:00:23,640 | ||
12 | today, I want to talk briefly, it's not gonna be a very long video, it's | ||
13 | probably going to be something new for most of you that are familiar with me. | ||
14 | |||
15 | 4 | ||
16 | 00:00:24,540 ~-~-> 00:00:37,710 | ||
17 | But the the concept of support and resistance, and the notion that old support | ||
18 | broken becomes resistance, and resistance broken becomes support all that stuff, | ||
19 | |||
20 | 5 | ||
21 | 00:00:38,430 ~-~-> 00:00:41,190 | ||
22 | I'm going to ask you to put that aside for a moment. | ||
23 | |||
24 | 6 | ||
25 | 00:00:42,780 ~-~-> 00:00:56,100 | ||
26 | I'm also going to ask you to suspend your belief in where price has reacted to | ||
27 | before as support, it will offer another level of buying put that aside as well, | ||
28 | |||
29 | 7 | ||
30 | 00:00:56,100 ~-~-> 00:01:08,550 | ||
31 | too. Okay. I kind of like want to introduce a concept that's prevalent | ||
32 | throughout my material. And it's the the notion of seeking liquidity, the market | ||
33 | |||
34 | 8 | ||
35 | 00:01:08,550 ~-~-> 00:01:21,600 | ||
36 | doesn't trade, whether you want to accept this at this stage in your development | ||
37 | or your career, or not. The truth is this. Price patterns, indicators, retail | ||
38 | |||
39 | 9 | ||
40 | 00:01:21,600 ~-~-> 00:01:34,050 | ||
41 | logic, all of those things are not catalysts that make price move. There's no | ||
42 | buying and selling pressure, there's no supply and demand. It's 100%. | ||
43 | |||
44 | 10 | ||
45 | 00:01:34,080 ~-~-> 00:01:50,820 | ||
46 | Engineered, okay. So, especially when it comes to the foreign exchange market, | ||
47 | which is more or less my specialty since 2006. If we are to understand what I | ||
48 | |||
49 | 11 | ||
50 | 00:01:50,820 ~-~-> 00:02:00,840 | ||
51 | mean by that, I'm going to take a sample set of price action. And if you pay | ||
52 | attention, I promise, you're going to learn some things here that you might not | ||
53 | |||
54 | 12 | ||
55 | 00:02:00,840 ~-~-> 00:02:12,900 | ||
56 | have expected to learn. When we look at price, and we studied price charts, | ||
57 | especially if you're a new person that's just sitting in on studying price and | ||
58 | |||
59 | 13 | ||
60 | 00:02:13,260 ~-~-> 00:02:24,420 | ||
61 | the markets and trading and such, it can be a rather daunting task. And true, | ||
62 | very intimidating. Because all of these candles here represent one particular | ||
63 | |||
64 | 14 | ||
65 | 00:02:24,540 ~-~-> 00:02:36,300 | ||
66 | trading day 124 hour interval where it started, where it stopped trading for | ||
67 | that particular 24 hour period. If I were to ask you, where the most significant | ||
68 | |||
69 | 15 | ||
70 | 00:02:36,300 ~-~-> 00:02:51,180 | ||
71 | price move has taken place, where would you look. Or some of you would say this | ||
72 | move here down. Some of you would say this move here, down. Others might say | ||
73 | |||
74 | 16 | ||
75 | 00:02:51,330 ~-~-> 00:03:08,310 | ||
76 | this move here up inside of this entire fractal. That's the actual move. So | ||
77 | what's happening is over here, and I'm believing I'm going to be very honest and | ||
78 | |||
79 | 17 | ||
80 | 00:03:08,310 ~-~-> 00:03:14,670 | ||
81 | tell you that this is an oversimplification, simply because I don't want the | ||
82 | video to be too long. And I don't want to bore you. And I'm probably boring some | ||
83 | |||
84 | 18 | ||
85 | 00:03:14,670 ~-~-> 00:03:24,330 | ||
86 | of the cynical people here already. But follow, I want you to look at the run | ||
87 | from this low all the way up to here. Now I'm not going to outline all the | ||
88 | |||
89 | 19 | ||
90 | 00:03:24,540 ~-~-> 00:03:35,940 | ||
91 | things that led to all this because it's not that important factor. But I want | ||
92 | you to look at how if we look at the idea of support and resistance, the idea | ||
93 | |||
94 | 20 | ||
95 | 00:03:35,940 ~-~-> 00:03:47,910 | ||
96 | that price has for whatever reason, and I'm not going to go into the catalysts | ||
97 | as to what made this low here form and run up to here. I'm going to cover why | ||
98 | |||
99 | 21 | ||
100 | 00:03:47,940 ~-~-> 00:04:00,090 | ||
101 | this area here, which acted as what everyone would see as a form of retail | ||
102 | support. Okay, or classic support and resistance theory, price for whatever | ||
103 | |||
104 | 22 | ||
105 | 00:04:00,090 ~-~-> 00:04:11,760 | ||
106 | reason came down, and it stopped and started going higher. Now there's going to | ||
107 | be a crowd that will readily come in and say, Oh, this is part of a harmonic | ||
108 | |||
109 | 23 | ||
110 | 00:04:11,760 ~-~-> 00:04:25,410 | ||
111 | pattern or it's a demand zone, or it's a order block. Or it's a Fibonacci | ||
112 | harmonic pattern. something of that nature. Others may look at that and say | ||
113 | |||
114 | 24 | ||
115 | 00:04:25,410 ~-~-> 00:04:38,220 | ||
116 | that's an Elliot wave pattern, it led to a rally. All of these ideas are | ||
117 | useless. without context, there has to be a narrative that's understood. | ||
118 | |||
119 | 25 | ||
120 | 00:04:38,640 ~-~-> 00:04:50,040 | ||
121 | Otherwise, how house price determining which retail logic or theory that causes | ||
122 | price to move if that's what you're subscribing to, because there's a myriad of | ||
123 | |||
124 | 26 | ||
125 | 00:04:50,040 ~-~-> 00:04:59,760 | ||
126 | different disciplines in the marketplace, as I mentioned a few of them just a | ||
127 | moment ago. Why is it and how is it determined by price | ||
128 | |||
129 | 27 | ||
130 | 00:05:01,110 ~-~-> 00:05:10,860 | ||
131 | Which one is going to follow at any given time? Because not all of them agree. | ||
132 | Once in a while, there'll be an agreement on one or two, maybe three different | ||
133 | |||
134 | 28 | ||
135 | 00:05:10,860 ~-~-> 00:05:25,830 | ||
136 | types of disciplines. But what is it that makes price elect to follow Elliott | ||
137 | Wave today, or supply and demand or order blocks. It's not the discipline or | ||
138 | |||
139 | 29 | ||
140 | 00:05:25,830 ~-~-> 00:05:36,450 | ||
141 | theory. It's the narrative that's missing from what educators are trying to | ||
142 | convey, because 99% of them don't have the narrative. They don't know, they can | ||
143 | |||
144 | 30 | ||
145 | 00:05:36,450 ~-~-> 00:05:43,710 | ||
146 | only give you examples on the far left side of the chart, and talk about what's | ||
147 | already happened. Now, right away, some of you're saying, well, you're about to | ||
148 | |||
149 | 31 | ||
150 | 00:05:43,710 ~-~-> 00:05:51,120 | ||
151 | do that right now, like you've always done, Michael. Well, that's because you're | ||
152 | outside the circle. I do these things before the fact. And I explained them, and | ||
153 | |||
154 | 32 | ||
155 | 00:05:51,120 ~-~-> 00:06:02,880 | ||
156 | I draw my students attention to specific things that they're trained to see and | ||
157 | observe. I prompted all of my followers on Twitter this week, to monitor the | ||
158 | |||
159 | 33 | ||
160 | 00:06:02,910 ~-~-> 00:06:16,260 | ||
161 | Australian dollar. And, obviously, that's what we're looking at here. And I want | ||
162 | you to consider this low. Okay, and just forget the idea of support resistance. | ||
163 | |||
164 | 34 | ||
165 | 00:06:17,010 ~-~-> 00:06:29,190 | ||
166 | Forget that. If this price rally started here, the natural assumption would be | ||
167 | when it gets down to that level, again, it should bounce again, this should | ||
168 | |||
169 | 35 | ||
170 | 00:06:29,190 ~-~-> 00:06:43,980 | ||
171 | provide you a trade to go long, I have over 2000 plus books, many of them are | ||
172 | regurgitated retail nonsense that does not promote or carry one, two, | ||
173 | |||
174 | 36 | ||
175 | 00:06:44,610 ~-~-> 00:06:56,700 | ||
176 | consistency, accuracy, none of those things, in fact, they promote confusion. | ||
177 | And if you are out in the industry now trying to chase, the new author, the new | ||
178 | |||
179 | 37 | ||
180 | 00:06:56,700 ~-~-> 00:07:06,000 | ||
181 | writer, the new educator, chances are you're wasting your time and your money. | ||
182 | And I'm just going to be very blunt and say it. If anything that you're | ||
183 | |||
184 | 38 | ||
185 | 00:07:06,240 ~-~-> 00:07:18,870 | ||
186 | following along in terms of quote unquote market maker, you're actually getting | ||
187 | a derivative of my 19 $96 million trading plan. And that was coached and taught | ||
188 | |||
189 | 39 | ||
190 | 00:07:18,870 ~-~-> 00:07:29,220 | ||
191 | to a small group of people. And much like everything else I've done over the | ||
192 | years. They've taken that and watered it down and revamped it and try to create | ||
193 | |||
194 | 40 | ||
195 | 00:07:29,220 ~-~-> 00:07:36,150 | ||
196 | something new out of it. But when you know, what's yours, you can see it. And | ||
197 | prior to 1996 no one was ever talking about market maker this and market maker | ||
198 | |||
199 | 41 | ||
200 | 00:07:36,150 ~-~-> 00:07:47,130 | ||
201 | that it was me, I was when I go online. Everything about market maker concepts | ||
202 | being taught to any retail audience is mine. Now, they may have added | ||
203 | |||
204 | 42 | ||
205 | 00:07:47,160 ~-~-> 00:08:01,530 | ||
206 | indicators, and add all kinds of retail fluff to what they're saying. But the | ||
207 | original ideas that I shared relative to market making, were largely founded in | ||
208 | |||
209 | 43 | ||
210 | 00:08:01,770 ~-~-> 00:08:13,020 | ||
211 | 1996, lecture notes, I started trading 1992, November 5, matter of fact, in | ||
212 | 1992, that was my my journey began. So I've been doing this for a long, long | ||
213 | |||
214 | 44 | ||
215 | 00:08:13,020 ~-~-> 00:08:23,160 | ||
216 | time. And I've seen a lot of folks come into this industry and tried to pretend | ||
217 | to be knowledgeable, try to be helpful, but in fact, they're actually de railing | ||
218 | |||
219 | 45 | ||
220 | 00:08:23,490 ~-~-> 00:08:32,490 | ||
221 | the very people that they're pretending to help. And the folks that are paying | ||
222 | attention to these people don't know any different because they don't know what | ||
223 | |||
224 | 46 | ||
225 | 00:08:32,490 ~-~-> 00:08:42,930 | ||
226 | they need to know. And by not knowing what they need to know, that's harmful to | ||
227 | them. So, if we look at this low here, and we had the idea that if it comes back | ||
228 | |||
229 | 47 | ||
230 | 00:08:42,930 ~-~-> 00:08:53,430 | ||
231 | down to that level books, retail support resistance, all the you know, the | ||
232 | trading education's centers and hubs for for trading, whether it be assets for | ||
233 | |||
234 | 48 | ||
235 | 00:08:53,430 ~-~-> 00:09:03,330 | ||
236 | stock trading, or commodity trading, or Forex, or crypto even. The idea is, this | ||
237 | is going to be a possible trading opportunity, because it's a daily timeframe. | ||
238 | |||
239 | 49 | ||
240 | 00:09:03,420 ~-~-> 00:09:16,470 | ||
241 | So therefore, we should get a reaction there. Sometimes that happens. Not all | ||
242 | the time. What I like to do is attack those individuals that believe in that | ||
243 | |||
244 | 50 | ||
245 | 00:09:16,470 ~-~-> 00:09:29,670 | ||
246 | theory. I want to take a retail idea, because if we if we classified speculation | ||
247 | into two groups, they're smart money, those individuals that are informed, they | ||
248 | |||
249 | 51 | ||
250 | 00:09:29,670 ~-~-> 00:09:42,870 | ||
251 | don't do what the masses do. They diverged from what? Well, the average person | ||
252 | or what we'll call street money. It's commonly referred to as dumb money. | ||
253 | |||
254 | 52 | ||
255 | 00:09:44,910 ~-~-> 00:09:55,620 | ||
256 | I don't mean to be derogatory, but I'm just using the commonly bandied about | ||
257 | terms, smart money. Their idea that this low is there's individuals that bought | ||
258 | |||
259 | 53 | ||
260 | 00:09:55,620 ~-~-> 00:10:09,420 | ||
261 | that and large institutional funds That have enormous amount of volume to have a | ||
262 | long term trending model, they will have a large pool of liquidity in the form | ||
263 | |||
264 | 54 | ||
265 | 00:10:09,420 ~-~-> 00:10:18,450 | ||
266 | of sell stops resting below that low. They're not actively trying to trail their | ||
267 | stop loss up every five points, or pips, because it's made a new equity high for | ||
268 | |||
269 | 55 | ||
270 | 00:10:18,450 ~-~-> 00:10:30,150 | ||
271 | them. Because their positions are so large, and their positions are meant to be | ||
272 | a long term time horizon. They allow trends to move against them a lot. And it | ||
273 | |||
274 | 56 | ||
275 | 00:10:30,150 ~-~-> 00:10:40,710 | ||
276 | takes a great deal of change for those models to be taken out, and then maybe | ||
277 | they'll reverse maybe they'll wait for more information, but they're not trying | ||
278 | |||
279 | 57 | ||
280 | 00:10:40,710 ~-~-> 00:10:49,110 | ||
281 | to turn on a dime, like a short term day trader or an intraday scalper, they | ||
282 | can't do those types of things, they don't have that luxury because of the | ||
283 | |||
284 | 58 | ||
285 | 00:10:49,590 ~-~-> 00:11:01,380 | ||
286 | protocols in place for long term hedge and institutional trading. They have | ||
287 | protocols they have to follow. And they allow the market a lot of breathing | ||
288 | |||
289 | 59 | ||
290 | 00:11:01,380 ~-~-> 00:11:12,240 | ||
291 | room, okay, so they're not trying to choke or strangle their positions by | ||
292 | jamming their stop losses up real tight, which is a common retail pitfall. So I | ||
293 | |||
294 | 60 | ||
295 | 00:11:12,240 ~-~-> 00:11:21,030 | ||
296 | want you to think about the large pool of liquidity that rests below here, okay. | ||
297 | And there are people in this industry that try to teach and they say that they | ||
298 | |||
299 | 61 | ||
300 | 00:11:21,030 ~-~-> 00:11:31,920 | ||
301 | don't go after your stock, there is no day quote, unquote, day. Well, there used | ||
302 | to be a day, okay, there used to be a collective entity, they were people, and | ||
303 | |||
304 | 62 | ||
305 | 00:11:31,920 ~-~-> 00:11:40,800 | ||
306 | they would purposely run stops, okay. And if you ever talk to a floor trader, | ||
307 | from the Chicago Board of Trade or Chicago Mercantile Exchange, they'll tell | ||
308 | |||
309 | 63 | ||
310 | 00:11:40,800 ~-~-> 00:11:53,850 | ||
311 | you, that's exactly what took place, day by day, every day, day in and out. Over | ||
312 | time, as the industry has evolved, we moved more and more away from the human | ||
313 | |||
314 | 64 | ||
315 | 00:11:53,850 ~-~-> 00:12:04,200 | ||
316 | element, much like every other industry in the world, to an automated artificial | ||
317 | intelligence. And the majority of how markets are priced and delivered to you | ||
318 | |||
319 | 65 | ||
320 | 00:12:04,200 ~-~-> 00:12:18,240 | ||
321 | now is all from an algorithm. And these algorithms were written with a lot of | ||
322 | old school retail, attacking theory and loads where the liquidity would be, or | ||
323 | |||
324 | 66 | ||
325 | 00:12:18,240 ~-~-> 00:12:30,210 | ||
326 | where the sentiment would be poised, bullish or bearish. They would make a run | ||
327 | on that because 90% of large funds, okay, or hedge funds actually use what is | ||
328 | |||
329 | 67 | ||
330 | 00:12:30,210 ~-~-> 00:12:38,850 | ||
331 | commonly regurgitated as retail logic. Now, you're probably thinking, well, if | ||
332 | that's true, Michael, then you said, you know, dumb money is the people that | ||
333 | |||
334 | 68 | ||
335 | 00:12:38,910 ~-~-> 00:12:52,320 | ||
336 | don't follow these ideas. They do what everyone else is doing. The large hedge | ||
337 | fund managers and folks that work on these long term trend models, they are not | ||
338 | |||
339 | 69 | ||
340 | 00:12:52,320 ~-~-> 00:13:00,090 | ||
341 | thinking like a retail trader by trying to get in every single position, trying | ||
342 | to trade every single day trying to manage their position with ultra tight | ||
343 | |||
344 | 70 | ||
345 | 00:13:00,090 ~-~-> 00:13:10,920 | ||
346 | stops. Okay, so while the logic is very similar in a lot of ways, the separation | ||
347 | and distinction between the two that have large hedge fund managers and retail | ||
348 | |||
349 | 71 | ||
350 | 00:13:10,920 ~-~-> 00:13:21,450 | ||
351 | street money is that retail street money can afford in their mind to take a | ||
352 | loss. So they do everything they can to try to avoid taking a monetary loss in | ||
353 | |||
354 | 72 | ||
355 | 00:13:21,450 ~-~-> 00:13:30,030 | ||
356 | trading. And by doing those very things by jamming their stop loss too tight, or | ||
357 | not using a stop loss right away and then letting the position go against them. | ||
358 | |||
359 | 73 | ||
360 | 00:13:30,570 ~-~-> 00:13:36,900 | ||
361 | And then all of a sudden, they either get stopped out because of a margin call | ||
362 | or they just for lack of a better words throw their guts up because they can't | ||
363 | |||
364 | 74 | ||
365 | 00:13:36,900 ~-~-> 00:13:47,040 | ||
366 | take it anymore. And they blow their account out. Those characteristics that | ||
367 | lead tend to get into a trade may be very similar to maybe exactly what these | ||
368 | |||
369 | 75 | ||
370 | 00:13:47,040 ~-~-> 00:13:56,160 | ||
371 | long term hedge fund managers are using for their trend models. But retail | ||
372 | traders many times will take characteristics of a specific approach or trading | ||
373 | |||
374 | 76 | ||
375 | 00:13:56,160 ~-~-> 00:14:06,390 | ||
376 | style like day trading or long term position trading. And they try to force the | ||
377 | characteristics of day trading inside of a long term trending model. or worst | ||
378 | |||
379 | 77 | ||
380 | 00:14:06,390 ~-~-> 00:14:18,990 | ||
381 | case, they're using a short term trading strategy. And they went into the idea | ||
382 | that this is a good short term intraday scalp. And because it moves really quick | ||
383 | |||
384 | 78 | ||
385 | 00:14:18,990 ~-~-> 00:14:26,040 | ||
386 | for them, they fall in love with it. And they say, Well, now this is going to be | ||
387 | a six month trade. And they let that one or turn into a loser. And if you've | ||
388 | |||
389 | 79 | ||
390 | 00:14:26,040 ~-~-> 00:14:31,590 | ||
391 | been trading for any length of time, you know exactly what that feels like. | ||
392 | Because all of us have fallen victim to that. And back in the 90s. I did a lot | ||
393 | |||
394 | 80 | ||
395 | 00:14:31,590 ~-~-> 00:14:32,910 | ||
396 | of that in my development. | ||
397 | |||
398 | 81 | ||
399 | 00:14:34,350 ~-~-> 00:14:41,820 | ||
400 | So I want you to think about the individuals that bought here, okay, yes, | ||
401 | there's an opportunity for two stops to be held to this low and this low. But | ||
402 | |||
403 | 82 | ||
404 | 00:14:41,820 ~-~-> 00:14:49,740 | ||
405 | right in here, I want you to think about that because this is the origin of this | ||
406 | entire price run. This is where all the largest pool of liquidity is going to | ||
407 | |||
408 | 83 | ||
409 | 00:14:49,740 ~-~-> 00:14:55,980 | ||
410 | be. Now, when folks say they don't get your stock, they don't reach for your | ||
411 | stuff. That's a lie this. These are people that don't know they're talking | ||
412 | |||
413 | 84 | ||
414 | 00:14:55,980 ~-~-> 00:15:04,320 | ||
415 | about, okay, they don't have any idea what they're talking about. They're just | ||
416 | trying to Pretend the elephant in the room, but the elephant is standing right | ||
417 | |||
418 | 85 | ||
419 | 00:15:04,320 ~-~-> 00:15:14,700 | ||
420 | there, whether they want to acknowledge it or not. And the elephant is, the | ||
421 | markets move on the basis of liquidity. They're either engineering liquidity, or | ||
422 | |||
423 | 86 | ||
424 | 00:15:14,850 ~-~-> 00:15:24,210 | ||
425 | they're going after open float, open float is the existence of buy side | ||
426 | liquidity. For instance, above an old high here, that's buy side liquidity, | ||
427 | |||
428 | 87 | ||
429 | 00:15:24,210 ~-~-> 00:15:33,240 | ||
430 | anything above that old high would be in the form of buy side liquidity or buy | ||
431 | stops, those buy stops are in two different categories. One, protecting a short | ||
432 | |||
433 | 88 | ||
434 | 00:15:33,240 ~-~-> 00:15:45,570 | ||
435 | position, or entering a new long patient on a breakout below an old low is sell | ||
436 | side liquidity. And that's gonna be in the form of two camps, sell stops for | ||
437 | |||
438 | 89 | ||
439 | 00:15:45,570 ~-~-> 00:16:00,000 | ||
440 | long position protection, or sell stops to break out with a new short position | ||
441 | on weakness. Smart Money will look at this low and target the liquidity below | ||
442 | |||
443 | 90 | ||
444 | 00:16:00,000 ~-~-> 00:16:12,240 | ||
445 | this low. Why because of the magnitude of the move that took place. So they know | ||
446 | there's a large footprint of fund level liquidity. When I say and when I talk | ||
447 | |||
448 | 91 | ||
449 | 00:16:12,240 ~-~-> 00:16:22,590 | ||
450 | about, they're gonna make a run on stops. I'm not talking about the traders over | ||
451 | and Atlanta, okay, or FCM. Okay, I'm not talking about those individuals, I'm | ||
452 | |||
453 | 92 | ||
454 | 00:16:22,590 ~-~-> 00:16:34,440 | ||
455 | talking about large institutional flows, where their stops are going to be. This | ||
456 | is an area that I drew everyone's attention to on Twitter. I asked everyone, | ||
457 | |||
458 | 93 | ||
459 | 00:16:34,470 ~-~-> 00:16:41,790 | ||
460 | where's all the dollar reaching for. And I prompted I wanted to look at the | ||
461 | daily chart. And this was the old low that anyone that's been studying with me | ||
462 | |||
463 | 94 | ||
464 | 00:16:41,820 ~-~-> 00:16:49,500 | ||
465 | will know right away, this is a pool of liquidity would be resting. And even | ||
466 | though the market already started coming down, right about here, I saw I was | ||
467 | |||
468 | 95 | ||
469 | 00:16:49,500 ~-~-> 00:16:59,010 | ||
470 | talking about everyone, following him looking at Aussie dollar. Now there are | ||
471 | times when traders should not be chasing the market. And this is going to seem | ||
472 | |||
473 | 96 | ||
474 | 00:16:59,010 ~-~-> 00:17:06,240 | ||
475 | like someone that's probably just started last month, okay. Or last summer, they | ||
476 | started trading, and he read 10 books, and now they're going to be in here | ||
477 | |||
478 | 97 | ||
479 | 00:17:06,240 ~-~-> 00:17:16,320 | ||
480 | looking to correct me, you're chasing price or you're not chasing anything, | ||
481 | okay, I'm telling everyone exactly what the markets going to do before it does | ||
482 | |||
483 | 98 | ||
484 | 00:17:16,320 ~-~-> 00:17:25,980 | ||
485 | it. And I'm giving you the logic. But I have to get your attention to a specific | ||
486 | framework in the marketplace, and focus your attention on that framework alone. | ||
487 | |||
488 | 99 | ||
489 | 00:17:26,550 ~-~-> 00:17:35,760 | ||
490 | It was this low. Now when I sit down and I start talking about the markets, | ||
491 | invariably, if someone was a daily chart up, they don't know, really what I'm | ||
492 | |||
493 | 100 | ||
494 | 00:17:35,760 ~-~-> 00:17:42,540 | ||
495 | looking at, unless they spent any time with me. All these candles back here, all | ||
496 | these highs and lows, they're gonna look at that. And they're gonna think that | ||
497 | |||
498 | 101 | ||
499 | 00:17:42,570 ~-~-> 00:17:53,490 | ||
500 | these things are factors for right now. And they're not what I was framing is | ||
501 | this. So the entire fractal that was of importance. And that was salient to the | ||
502 | |||
503 | 102 | ||
504 | 00:17:53,490 ~-~-> 00:18:04,470 | ||
505 | discussion for my Twitter tweets, was this low here, forget anything prior to | ||
506 | it. Okay, we're only looking at this. So as the market was starting to go lower, | ||
507 | |||
508 | 103 | ||
509 | 00:18:04,860 ~-~-> 00:18:17,190 | ||
510 | my attention was on this low and how we would attack it. So what's resting below | ||
511 | that? Sell side liquidity in the form of sell stops, it matters not how many are | ||
512 | |||
513 | 104 | ||
514 | 00:18:17,220 ~-~-> 00:18:25,920 | ||
515 | trying to go in the market to go short. And it does not matter how many are | ||
516 | going out of the market or the long position being stopped out. It's not an it's | ||
517 | |||
518 | 105 | ||
519 | 00:18:25,920 ~-~-> 00:18:35,610 | ||
520 | not important, not impactful, it just means that we understand. And we don't | ||
521 | overthink the fact that there's going to be sell side liquidity resting below | ||
522 | |||
523 | 106 | ||
524 | 00:18:35,610 ~-~-> 00:18:44,640 | ||
525 | that. Now there are ways to determine the majority of what that is, but it's | ||
526 | based on context and narrative prior to this low, which is beyond the scope of | ||
527 | |||
528 | 107 | ||
529 | 00:18:44,640 ~-~-> 00:18:52,950 | ||
530 | this discussion. So I want you to know that this level here they have on the | ||
531 | chart when I drop down into a lower timeframe, that's this particular low. Okay, | ||
532 | |||
533 | 108 | ||
534 | 00:18:53,130 ~-~-> 00:19:10,470 | ||
535 | so if we look at the actual low on that candle, it comes in at 6754. So 6754 and | ||
536 | that's it, we are going to make sure we have on our chart to the PIP. Alright, | ||
537 | |||
538 | 109 | ||
539 | 00:19:10,470 ~-~-> 00:19:19,470 | ||
540 | so now everything is calibrated route relative to this low. So I'm going to drop | ||
541 | down into a 15 minute timeframe, we'll continue our discussion. Alright, so here | ||
542 | |||
543 | 110 | ||
544 | 00:19:19,470 ~-~-> 00:19:26,340 | ||
545 | is the 15 minute time frame of Australian dollar. And you can see that we have | ||
546 | Monday's trading here. I don't have the entire high of Monday, it's not | ||
547 | |||
548 | 111 | ||
549 | 00:19:26,340 ~-~-> 00:19:30,330 | ||
550 | important. Drew everyone's attention. If you look at my Twitter feed | ||
551 | |||
552 | 112 | ||
553 | 00:19:30,690 ~-~-> 00:19:46,290 | ||
554 | at I underscore m underscore ICT that is where we started our observation. And | ||
555 | this is the old daily well as outlined on the daily chart. We have relative | ||
556 | |||
557 | 113 | ||
558 | 00:19:46,290 ~-~-> 00:19:54,480 | ||
559 | equal highs in here and price runs back up into a bearish order block, which is | ||
560 | this candle here. We're not going to teach order blocks here. It's in my lessons | ||
561 | |||
562 | 114 | ||
563 | 00:19:54,480 ~-~-> 00:20:05,100 | ||
564 | you can actually find a lot of that introductory and foundational information on | ||
565 | order blocks which is just basic approaches to it with my YouTube videos. I | ||
566 | |||
567 | 115 | ||
568 | 00:20:05,100 ~-~-> 00:20:15,600 | ||
569 | teach, obviously much more in depth in advanced use of waterblock theory in my | ||
570 | mentorship, the equal highs in here relatively equal highs, they run those, | ||
571 | |||
572 | 116 | ||
573 | 00:20:15,750 ~-~-> 00:20:24,270 | ||
574 | there's above that what's going to be the same thing we outlined on a daily | ||
575 | chart about above old highs is buyside liquidity. So they run those buy stops on | ||
576 | |||
577 | 117 | ||
578 | 00:20:24,270 ~-~-> 00:20:33,840 | ||
579 | anyone that's short. And the opportunity is that those buy stops flood the | ||
580 | market with buying interest immediately floods the market with willing buyers at | ||
581 | |||
582 | 118 | ||
583 | 00:20:33,840 ~-~-> 00:20:44,670 | ||
584 | a higher price. And smart money will pair their orders with that and sell short | ||
585 | right above those highs. And then every time the market has a retracement, okay | ||
586 | |||
587 | 119 | ||
588 | 00:20:44,700 ~-~-> 00:20:53,820 | ||
589 | presents an opportunity to create a new short position until we get down to that | ||
590 | old daily low. Now when we do this, okay, when we trade down to that old daily | ||
591 | |||
592 | 120 | ||
593 | 00:20:53,820 ~-~-> 00:21:01,890 | ||
594 | low to support resistance camp, those individuals that like to see these types | ||
595 | of things, they're going to be out here buying. And if you look at indicators, | ||
596 | |||
597 | 121 | ||
598 | 00:21:02,160 ~-~-> 00:21:10,590 | ||
599 | and such, you'll see that there's momentum indicators diverging bullish Lee at | ||
600 | these levels. And that's exactly what they want. They want traders to think that | ||
601 | |||
602 | 122 | ||
603 | 00:21:10,590 ~-~-> 00:21:19,590 | ||
604 | this is a low and the market starts to go up a little bit, but then it goes and | ||
605 | consolidation, new trading day begins. They run below these relative equal lows, | ||
606 | |||
607 | 123 | ||
608 | 00:21:19,590 ~-~-> 00:21:32,610 | ||
609 | what's below here, sell side liquidity. So what we're seeing is buy stocks being | ||
610 | taken. So if the buy stocks are being rated what's actually happening, so one | ||
611 | |||
612 | 124 | ||
613 | 00:21:32,610 ~-~-> 00:21:45,060 | ||
614 | has to take those out of that by side. So everybody has to have a seller, this | ||
615 | seller is profitable if they wrote it down to that old daily, low, or under it. | ||
616 | |||
617 | 125 | ||
618 | 00:21:45,540 ~-~-> 00:21:56,100 | ||
619 | Because below that old low is what willing sellers, they have sell stuff below | ||
620 | that. So they want to sell at a low price. Remember, it was over here. So the | ||
621 | |||
622 | 126 | ||
623 | 00:21:56,100 ~-~-> 00:22:04,080 | ||
624 | orders that were below that old daily low in the form of sell side liquidity. | ||
625 | They're screaming like with a banner in their hands, I am willing to sell way | ||
626 | |||
627 | 127 | ||
628 | 00:22:04,080 ~-~-> 00:22:14,640 | ||
629 | down here if you want. If it gets down here, I'll sell to you. Well, those smart | ||
630 | money that sells to the buy stops that are trying to protect their short | ||
631 | |||
632 | 128 | ||
633 | 00:22:14,640 ~-~-> 00:22:25,740 | ||
634 | positions. They sold short here, they write it down to the old daily low. And | ||
635 | they offset their position by distributing their shorts to willing participants | ||
636 | |||
637 | 129 | ||
638 | 00:22:25,740 ~-~-> 00:22:36,720 | ||
639 | that want to sell to a lower price. And the smart money will buy it back | ||
640 | covering their shorts. To get out of a short, you have to buy it back. Well, | ||
641 | |||
642 | 130 | ||
643 | 00:22:36,720 ~-~-> 00:22:44,940 | ||
644 | who's gonna buy it from Smart Money pairs it up with the liquidity resting below | ||
645 | the old daily low. And this is a concept that I teach is called offset | ||
646 | |||
647 | 131 | ||
648 | 00:22:44,970 ~-~-> 00:22:55,260 | ||
649 | distribution. Offset distribution is exactly how interbank works. You're not | ||
650 | going to see that in books, you're going to hear it from me if you train under | ||
651 | |||
652 | 132 | ||
653 | 00:22:55,260 ~-~-> 00:23:06,510 | ||
654 | me. But the concept is then really been watered down from folks that have | ||
655 | trained under me for a little while, or had been exposed to my content. And | ||
656 | |||
657 | 133 | ||
658 | 00:23:06,510 ~-~-> 00:23:14,340 | ||
659 | they're trying to rename things and draw attention to themselves. Like they | ||
660 | understand how markets work or how market making is done. And they're completely | ||
661 | |||
662 | 134 | ||
663 | 00:23:14,340 ~-~-> 00:23:23,520 | ||
664 | clueless. They're absolutely clueless, YouTube has been invaded by you guys that | ||
665 | have no idea what they're talking about, they're only going to talk about what's | ||
666 | |||
667 | 135 | ||
668 | 00:23:23,550 ~-~-> 00:23:30,120 | ||
669 | already happened. In the left side, you don't see them actually trading it, you | ||
670 | don't actually see them outlining it before it happens. And they're out there | ||
671 | |||
672 | 136 | ||
673 | 00:23:30,120 ~-~-> 00:23:39,810 | ||
674 | trying to promote multi level marketing. I market live I market analysis I | ||
675 | market Academy I am trying to copy off ICT is basically what that is, these are | ||
676 | |||
677 | 137 | ||
678 | 00:23:39,810 ~-~-> 00:23:49,560 | ||
679 | all people pretending Okay, and you'll never see them trading an account. And | ||
680 | many of you watch me do this last year where I took a small account and ran it | ||
681 | |||
682 | 138 | ||
683 | 00:23:49,560 ~-~-> 00:24:01,500 | ||
684 | up over seven digits. And I did it in short order. It brought a lot of | ||
685 | controversy. But I was doing a lot of what I just explained here. And those | ||
686 | |||
687 | 139 | ||
688 | 00:24:01,500 ~-~-> 00:24:10,500 | ||
689 | individuals that run services or try to run signal services, they were blown out | ||
690 | of the water because they can't answer for something like that. So they | ||
691 | |||
692 | 140 | ||
693 | 00:24:10,500 ~-~-> 00:24:25,890 | ||
694 | instigated a mt empty for server okay rented empty for server scam, which I was | ||
695 | just as well as anyone else surprised out easy it was to pretend and fake | ||
696 | |||
697 | 141 | ||
698 | 00:24:26,609 ~-~-> 00:24:35,489 | ||
699 | what your results look like when you go on social media. You can see these guys | ||
700 | on Instagram, they show their mp4 profits, what's your balances are and how many | ||
701 | |||
702 | 142 | ||
703 | 00:24:35,489 ~-~-> 00:24:44,249 | ||
704 | positions they have open and whatever. You can put in all that stuff after the | ||
705 | fact. If you watched what I was doing, I was my orders were resting in the | ||
706 | |||
707 | 143 | ||
708 | 00:24:44,249 ~-~-> 00:24:51,329 | ||
709 | market before the market would go up and you can actually see see, see these | ||
710 | things on my YouTube channel still. I have limit orders in the marketplace. It | ||
711 | |||
712 | 144 | ||
713 | 00:24:51,329 ~-~-> 00:25:00,749 | ||
714 | goes up it hits the limit order and then it goes where I want it to go. And then | ||
715 | I reverse and go the other direction. So there's no empty for server New | ||
716 | |||
717 | 145 | ||
718 | 00:25:00,779 ~-~-> 00:25:12,629 | ||
719 | tomfoolery there. Okay, they have been completely exposed as frauds and trying | ||
720 | to discredit me. And on top of that, I have 1000s of people that watch me do | ||
721 | |||
722 | 146 | ||
723 | 00:25:12,629 ~-~-> 00:25:22,949 | ||
724 | this every single week and I'm co signing what I believe the markets going to do | ||
725 | before it happens on Wednesdays on the weekends. So before these markets trade | ||
726 | |||
727 | 147 | ||
728 | 00:25:22,949 ~-~-> 00:25:35,309 | ||
729 | to these levels, I've already said this is what's going to happen. And those | ||
730 | that are familiar with me they'll know it were 98% accurate analysis every | ||
731 | |||
732 | 148 | ||
733 | 00:25:35,309 ~-~-> 00:25:45,449 | ||
734 | single week. That means 98% of the time, what I expect to see unfold in price. | ||
735 | That's what happens. And I'm predominantly only focusing on euro dollar and | ||
736 | |||
737 | 149 | ||
738 | 00:25:45,449 ~-~-> 00:25:57,689 | ||
739 | cable, my analysis of what the dollar index, and we've been bullish on dollar, | ||
740 | which lends well to these ideas with the weakness in Australian dollar. If you | ||
741 | |||
742 | 150 | ||
743 | 00:25:57,689 ~-~-> 00:26:08,219 | ||
744 | study the times of the day that the markets creating these highs, it's in an | ||
745 | area where I have dubbed over the years as an ICT kills them. Now what is a kill | ||
746 | |||
747 | 151 | ||
748 | 00:26:08,219 ~-~-> 00:26:19,109 | ||
749 | zone, a kill zone is a specific segment in time, at specific times of the day, | ||
750 | where there is a high probability for a key turning point to form. Now, those | ||
751 | |||
752 | 152 | ||
753 | 00:26:19,109 ~-~-> 00:26:28,829 | ||
754 | key turning points intraday could actually be the very daily high or the very | ||
755 | dearly low. It's not always the daily high or the daily low, and sometimes it's | ||
756 | |||
757 | 153 | ||
758 | 00:26:28,829 ~-~-> 00:26:40,859 | ||
759 | just a intraday in a market turn, like it would be seen on a one minute or 15 | ||
760 | minute timeframe. I want to take your attention back to this level here. And | ||
761 | |||
762 | 154 | ||
763 | 00:26:40,859 ~-~-> 00:26:48,659 | ||
764 | remember that if it was hitting that old daily, low traders that view support | ||
765 | resistance, we're going to see that as a potential buying opportunity, | ||
766 | |||
767 | 155 | ||
768 | 00:26:49,049 ~-~-> 00:26:59,219 | ||
769 | especially if the add to it indicators. Okay, so if they started putting their | ||
770 | momentum indicators, their stochastic, RSI, CCI, MACD, whatever they're using, | ||
771 | |||
772 | 156 | ||
773 | 00:26:59,609 ~-~-> 00:27:13,559 | ||
774 | all of that is going to be painted with a bullish divergence. That's what the | ||
775 | algorithm does, it spends time in a range, which causes the indicators to go to | ||
776 | |||
777 | 157 | ||
778 | 00:27:13,559 ~-~-> 00:27:22,409 | ||
779 | an overbought or oversold relative to where it has been recently. So from this | ||
780 | high to this low, okay, take it out like this, I'm going to teach you real quick | ||
781 | |||
782 | 158 | ||
783 | 00:27:22,409 ~-~-> 00:27:31,169 | ||
784 | how to throw away all your indicators because you don't need an indicator to | ||
785 | tell you if you're overbought or oversold. A market technician, a mechanic with | ||
786 | |||
787 | 159 | ||
788 | 00:27:31,169 ~-~-> 00:27:40,589 | ||
789 | price does not need an overbought oversold indicator. They don't need to look | ||
790 | for divergence either. Because you can see it in price. Without the necessity of | ||
791 | |||
792 | 160 | ||
793 | 00:27:40,589 ~-~-> 00:27:49,559 | ||
794 | having an overlaid indicator on your chart. There's nothing on my chart except | ||
795 | for that horizontal line. And I've outlined the logic of what makes this market | ||
796 | |||
797 | 161 | ||
798 | 00:27:49,559 ~-~-> 00:27:58,679 | ||
799 | move. Now. I've already framed all this stuff on Twitter, I drew everyone's | ||
800 | attention to this before it happened. We go back to this old daily low, which is | ||
801 | |||
802 | 162 | ||
803 | 00:27:58,679 ~-~-> 00:28:07,079 | ||
804 | that horizontal line, retail is going to expect a bounce. And they give it a | ||
805 | look a little bit of a rally there but then they hold it. Then as a new day | ||
806 | |||
807 | 163 | ||
808 | 00:28:07,079 ~-~-> 00:28:20,819 | ||
809 | starts. Okay, when we have a new day beginning in Wellington, there's going to | ||
810 | be a new day started in the foreign exchange market. And the Australian dollar | ||
811 | |||
812 | 164 | ||
813 | 00:28:21,149 ~-~-> 00:28:31,439 | ||
814 | and New Zealand dollar typically will have really respectful runs in this time | ||
815 | of day before Asia starts. And during Asia, usually I'll show you the New | ||
816 | |||
817 | 165 | ||
818 | 00:28:31,439 ~-~-> 00:28:41,609 | ||
819 | Zealand can be traded with a scalping idea. The market runs below these relative | ||
820 | equal lows right below here, hit that and then it creates another relative equal | ||
821 | |||
822 | 166 | ||
823 | 00:28:41,609 ~-~-> 00:28:52,019 | ||
824 | low. So we have rated effectively, the old daily low here on a shallow sense. | ||
825 | And then we went a little bit deeper here, then the market rallies back up. And | ||
826 | |||
827 | 167 | ||
828 | 00:28:52,019 ~-~-> 00:29:02,279 | ||
829 | what is it doing here it's taking out the buy side liquidity that's resting | ||
830 | above would be seen as resistance by retail traders. It's gone up, it's gone up, | ||
831 | |||
832 | 168 | ||
833 | 00:29:02,309 ~-~-> 00:29:11,159 | ||
834 | it's failed to go here. So this is what in their eyes, that's going to be a safe | ||
835 | area to sell short or if they sold short down here. They can put their buy stop | ||
836 | |||
837 | 169 | ||
838 | 00:29:11,159 ~-~-> 00:29:15,509 | ||
839 | that will protect that short position right above these real safe equal highs. | ||
840 | |||
841 | 170 | ||
842 | 00:29:16,079 ~-~-> 00:29:26,129 | ||
843 | Which now all of a sudden, everybody on YouTube, everybody on social media, | ||
844 | Instagram, and all these multi level marketing companies, okay are pretending | ||
845 | |||
846 | 171 | ||
847 | 00:29:26,639 ~-~-> 00:29:35,009 | ||
848 | they understand that too. It's not always in equal height equal load, it's | ||
849 | rated. It doesn't always present that sometimes. These are continuations where | ||
850 | |||
851 | 172 | ||
852 | 00:29:35,009 ~-~-> 00:29:44,279 | ||
853 | we can run it come back and then recapitalize and go long again, for a longer | ||
854 | term move. So don't think simply because it's equal high equal low that you | ||
855 | |||
856 | 173 | ||
857 | 00:29:44,279 ~-~-> 00:29:51,179 | ||
858 | figured it out either because of the whole lot more context that's necessary. | ||
859 | This is a run on the bicycle equity running buddies relative equal highs. And | ||
860 | |||
861 | 174 | ||
862 | 00:29:51,179 ~-~-> 00:30:03,119 | ||
863 | it's happening in Midnight in New York time. rallies hits it, I mean an hour and | ||
864 | then make sense aggressive run to the sell side liquidity resting below these | ||
865 | |||
866 | 175 | ||
867 | 00:30:03,149 ~-~-> 00:30:17,549 | ||
868 | equal lows here. So we make a deeper path into the liquidity that rests below | ||
869 | that old daily low. So this low here, dug in deeper than the initial run in | ||
870 | |||
871 | 176 | ||
872 | 00:30:17,579 ~-~-> 00:30:33,869 | ||
873 | Asia. And below what was seen in the New York session on Monday of this | ||
874 | particular week, the 27th of January. Once we dug in deeper, then it rallies | ||
875 | |||
876 | 177 | ||
877 | 00:30:33,869 ~-~-> 00:30:43,469 | ||
878 | back and start spending time at and around that Oh, daily. Well, why does it do | ||
879 | that? Because there's all kinds of liquidity, the resting below that old daily | ||
880 | |||
881 | 178 | ||
882 | 00:30:43,469 ~-~-> 00:30:53,969 | ||
883 | low. And that's why we're seeing all these ebbs and flows around that level, | ||
884 | because it's allowing the algorithm is allowing orders to come into the | ||
885 | |||
886 | 179 | ||
887 | 00:30:53,969 ~-~-> 00:31:04,859 | ||
888 | marketplace and build up around that old daily low. Because like I said, there's | ||
889 | traders that look at the old daily low as support they want to buy it. Other | ||
890 | |||
891 | 180 | ||
892 | 00:31:04,859 ~-~-> 00:31:11,669 | ||
893 | traders are looking at when it breaks in it comes back up, they want to sell | ||
894 | short at it because they think it's support broken term resistance, and they get | ||
895 | |||
896 | 181 | ||
897 | 00:31:12,149 ~-~-> 00:31:21,209 | ||
898 | sliced and dice to the market breaks down and they chase it. When they do they | ||
899 | wait for these overs to vary. When they do they go short, because they're | ||
900 | |||
901 | 182 | ||
902 | 00:31:21,209 ~-~-> 00:31:30,119 | ||
903 | chasing price. And then what happens, the market runs back up above that old | ||
904 | daily low that they looked at as support broken out term resistance. And that's | ||
905 | |||
906 | 183 | ||
907 | 00:31:30,119 ~-~-> 00:31:39,389 | ||
908 | what's going on here. They're sweeping the liquidity above that old low for | ||
909 | those types of traders. So when we understand what we're looking for, it gives | ||
910 | |||
911 | 184 | ||
912 | 00:31:39,389 ~-~-> 00:31:47,579 | ||
913 | you a context to act. When the standstill when to anticipate a specific | ||
914 | direction in mind, where's the draw on liquidity? That's the draw on price. | ||
915 | |||
916 | 185 | ||
917 | 00:31:47,729 ~-~-> 00:31:59,369 | ||
918 | Okay, I teach in my concepts and in my mentorship and even in a lot of my free | ||
919 | lessons. The draw on liquidity. If you go on my Twitter feed, there is a free | ||
920 | |||
921 | 186 | ||
922 | 00:31:59,369 ~-~-> 00:32:07,019 | ||
923 | price action model that I shared last year. And it's a PDF file that you can | ||
924 | download and look at it. Till next time. I wish good luck and good trading. |