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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-12-09 06:16
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3 ICT: Okay, folks, good afternoon, we're taking a look at the Dollar Index, this
4 is a weekly chart. And I want you to take a look at where we are reaching down
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7 00:00:19,139 ~-~-> 00:00:31,799
8 into, we have another objective below us at 8880. And ultimately, I think we're
9 gonna probably see at 70, maybe 8750. If we can continue to see this dollar
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13 weakness, and I'm gonna scroll over here, you can see where I got this
14 information from. You can see this is a down close candle on a weekly chart is
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18 it the only down closed candle in the range that's caused from this high, all
19 the way down to this low here. The next area of concern is this down close
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22 00:00:52,919 ~-~-> 00:01:05,669
23 candle here, which is a bullish order block. And I'm noting basically the open
24 on this candle comes in at exactly at 936. And I'm delineating at 935. I'm using
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28 the equilibrium price point as our next objective, which happens to be the ad
29 level. So add the next downside objective for the dollar index. Let's drop into
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33 a daily chart and get some perspective on it. So we're gonna do a daily chart.
34 And we had a breakdown, as we're expecting on the dollar index, we're targeting
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38 this old low here, price to come back up retested, as I mentioned in one of my
39 sessions, the dollar index 91 would be a potential retest for another round of
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43 selling. And we did in fact, get that so we've pierced the opening of that
44 weekly bullish order block. We're inside the order block now. So come in daily
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48 capacity, we're just really about 40 pips or so away from that mean threshold on
49 the bullish order block from the weekly chart. So that will be our next downside
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53 objectives should things accelerate now we'll be looking for 8787 50. But it may
54 require some retracements and such. Now, if the dollar has been bearish as we've
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58 been referring to it, that's going to be complimentary for buy signals in the
59 foreign currencies, ie the euro dollar. So let's take a look at the Euro net
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63 case. So we'd see the euros as an hourly chart. I'm using this one because this
64 is the last chart I shared with you on Twitter. And I'm just highlighting the
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68 idea that a run below these lows in here. Also optimal trade entry. This would
69 give us the wrong one, the sell stops. And I made a notation that cell cells
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73 have been cleared. And now any of the long positions would be viewed. From an
74 institutional standpoint, smart money now is long. So I put that in tweets. And
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78 in charts, you guys can see all that on my Twitter. And I had all these levels
79 here outlined. And I use this as a day trade. Okay, from a swing trade
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83 standpoint, you could have used this entry here or any of these in here, or as a
84 short term trader, we add the daily delineations. You can see here we have now
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88 waiting for Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, remember has the highest probability
89 for the weekly range to be formed. From a low standpoint, if we're looking for a
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93 long, we have Monday and Tuesday in here this week. And now we have an
94 extrapolated move on the upside. One of the things that I wanted to have you pay
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98 attention to is I use a lot of the headlines that go into a really strong
99 directional sentiment, in the words of an analyst or a talking head of some
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103 kind, you know, in media start basically implying that there has to be an
104 expectation the market going to go one way or the other. I immediately look to
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108 fade that and it complements my analysis if I'm already contrarian. So I feel
109 strongly then I gave a couple examples of that with the euro dollar. You can see
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113 prices very easily broke above the run on this old high. The idea I wanted to
114 present to you and I said this is a study for your there was an analyst from one
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118 of the well known forex websites and they stated that it was a classic textbook
119 sell scenario, or sell signal for euro dollar. And I went right in there and
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123 stepped in front of it with the idea that it's a buy and not to you sound
124 smarter, okay, but I'm just saying that that's usually what happens. You blend a
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128 little bit of the news elements, but I use news as a sentiment gauge only I
129 don't. I don't like to go along with news. I like to see things in the chart,
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133 implying that either bullish or bearish and if I can get a contract an opposing
134 view from retail analysts, then just makes me feel much stronger in really just
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138 pushing me over the edge in terms of confidence.
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142 And that's the reason why I shared this with you guys publicly, because there
143 was a lot of build up to an expectation that the euro dollar was going to go
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147 lower, completely oblivious to the fact that the dollar has been careening lower
148 in a landslide that's going to be bullish for foreign currencies without a
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152 doubt. And we've seen this as an example here. So several 100 pips was offered
153 here, for a scenario going long. On the euro dollar, let's go over to the
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157 British pound. Okay, so we're looking at the British councils and hourly chart
158 again. And I want you to think about the significance of that 138 65 level. And
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162 again, that's a weekly level. And I'll show you again, why that's been
163 referenced here. But it's not being cherry picked for this video, because we
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167 talked about it in previous commentary and videos as well. But 138 65 happens to
168 be a weekly low, an old weekly low, we looked for it as an upside objective, it
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172 traded through it, and then we worked around it. Okay, now notice that the range
173 in here and look closely, you can see here, I'm measuring the range, the highest
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177 open or close to lowest open or close in this consolidation, equilibrium price
178 point is right in here. And you can see that we work below it above it, around
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182 it in here and finally snapped away. The real telltale sign was that it was a
183 weekly objective to work for as an outside objective. And then there was orders
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187 starting to accumulate in here, a lot of folks that wanted to sell short
188 thinking it was going to be resistance, it was basically used as a point of
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192 accumulation. And we had an optimal trade entry in here, I won't draw that on
193 here, you guys can do that with your Fibonacci, use the lowest open or close to
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197 the highest open, open or close rather, and an overlap of the 138 65 level. And
198 old higher timeframe key level, we also have a smaller optimal trade entry in
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202 here, you can use this little small point here. And then we have price move away
203 targeting in a run through these equal highs. But now it's not going to be a run
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207 of all these equal highs and then rejection or a complete reversal, because the
208 market is what predisposed to go higher on the British pound. Why? Because we
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212 are extremely bearish on the dollar index. So that's going to provide lift,
213 okay, or ease of rallying for cable. So what you're gonna be looking for is
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217 reference points in terms of ICT concepts to promote support ideas. Okay, so
218 let's take a look at a few of them, I want you to take a look at the swing here,
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222 and swing here. Okay, so if we look at that reference point right there, right
223 away, your eye should notice and identify it as an optimal trade entry. So we're
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227 gonna use the lowest open and close here, up to the highest open or close, boom,
228 perfect optimal trade entry long rallies through comes back. And it gives you an
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232 optimal trade entry here, open or close, whichever is lowest here, to the
233 highest open or close on these two reference points. And I'll just move this
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237 over here. You guys can see that. And we can see that right away. We have again,
238 another optimal trade entry at 60% retracement level, and an acceleration on the
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242 upside. So right now we're looking for the next objective is basically
243 142 88 142 85 in that area based on this recent price swing, if we add the daily
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247 delineations as well, you can see how we had a Monday by right on that higher
248 timeframe key level and again, we're looking for bullish prices. So that means
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252 the weekly expansion is going to be on the upside and onwards to the weekly
253 range should go up, get the bulk of the body should be bullish. That means we're
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257 gonna be looking to go long on Monday, Tuesday or by Wednesday's New York open.
258 So in this scenario, again, classic ICT scenario, weekly range expansion, boom,
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262 nails activity. Everything in here, okay? It's complemented, also by the fact
263 that we have a breaker. Okay, so we have this high here, running down to this
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267 low here. And we have what, we have a swing low back here. Okay, this swing low
268 is violated here. So what did they do with this high here, they drove price down
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272 sort of aggressively to take out the stops here. When price rally through it
273 came back down, cut through some candles because we don't teach supply and
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277 demand. We're not online trading Academy. We cut through those candles right
278 over to this right here. So now, this is a real support level because the
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282 context behind it suggests that they did all the dirty work of running the stops
283 out to go higher. They're gonna come back down and recapitalize this level for
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287 buying. And I'll show you what that looks like. I'll take the rectangle here.
288 We're going to highlight this whole range of the bodies of the two boards.
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292 candles dried out in time. Right there. There.
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296 So now we go right down to the middle of that, okay, equilibrium or mean
297 threshold or the bullish ice breaker gets it accumulation again, on top of an
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301 ICT optimal trade entry. Boom, really, really strong. And what day of the week
302 is it occurring? Hello, Tuesday, and we had a really expensive extrapolated move
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306 on the upside. So what's this blue line here? Okay, this happens to be a bearish
307 order block. So let's go to a higher timeframe, I'll show you what that looks
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311 like, and where it came from. Okay, you see, here's the weekly cable chart for
312 Japan versus US dollar in the last upclose candle right before the Brexit
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316 eurycoma row, the open on this candle, we're going to be looking at a price of
317 141 91. That's what that price level is. And as you can see it that's exactly
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321 what I'm trying to delineate there. For whatever reason it jumped around, but
322 141 91 was the level. So if we're looking at 141 91, and we're coming up to at
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326 141 90 would be the level for 142. Big figure. And if we run through that big
327 finger memory for bullish, it could potentially run 20 pips or 30 pips through
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331 it. So what's the level 4230 in today's high happens to come in at 4263. So we
332 went well through well above that. But now we have the middle of the range on
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336 this bullish candle, which is a bearish order block. And it's probably confusing
337 for some of you folks that are new. But I cover all this stuff in my tutorials
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341 and nauseum in the mentorship. So if we go through this level, we can now add
342 the mean threshold of this bearish order block from the weekly Okay, so we're
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346 looking for that potential upside 143 80. Okay, so there's the next objective
347 for continuation on basis of a weaker dollar stronger cable market. And again,
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351 all based on our bullish weekly, overbought this candle, we're here, what set
352 the tone, small little range in here, big expansion hits the order block, big,
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356 big powerful move, folks, this is what makes big, big returns, looking for these
357 types of setups, it's going to take a lot of patience to wait for these to form.
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361 But when they do form, it gives you a lot of context, you can actually start day
362 trading in that same directional premise as well and do very well. So hopefully
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366 this has been insightful to you guys. I'm gonna break here and wish you all a
367 very pleasant week. And for those that are entering the mentorship, I can't wait
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371 to work with you. And until next time, I wish you good luck and good trading.