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Version 1.1 by Drunk Monkey on 2020-12-09 06:15
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2 00:00:18,630 ~-~-> 00:00:30,600
3 ICT: Alright, folks, it's non farm payroll Friday, not for professionals. So I
4 have my full screen shown here. So you guys can see the time and all that
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8 business. Here's that same demo account that I said to keep track of that number
9 for savings isn't going to change. The market looks like it may want to drive
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13 under this low here. But not before coming up in here. I like this order block
14 right here. So I thinking that price will want to hit that.
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18 Maybe hit that and then come down and take the stops here. So the idea is use
19 non farm payroll to rally at first thinking it's gonna break out higher, and
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23 then sync it down and take the stops at 3520.
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27 Okay, and we're about to do that now.
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31 similar words, this is going to be a short, or run down here for about 50 pips
32 or so. Now, I would never take this trade with live money, because it's not on
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36 payroll numbers and anything can happen. Worst case scenario it could whip
37 through. Now, if this was a non payroll, I'm sorry, I'm not even no words. If it
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41 wasn't non farm payroll analyses using this example here, I would look for sell
42 here and use a 30 PIP stop to it would be well above here. But I think the draw
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46 is going to be on the low.
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50 Here's your run. Here's your order block. Again, it would be above your stock
51 will be above this high. Here's your old high back here on the daily.
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55 So 3599. That's where the stock would be 30 pips above from that level here.
56 We've already punched through these highs. And we'll see if there's any give
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60 back to make a run for the liquidity risk falling below the low on euro. See
61 we're approaching it equal high, and we'll probably see it trade back down, make
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65 it lower low on the day. And we watching for that 2020 level. What's the
66 downside objective
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70 given the nature of non farm payroll is to run, take out the side that's easiest
71 to knock off. In other words, we've seen market making lower moves today. So
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75 there obviously are people short. So there's two ways of using that information.
76 If it were not a non farm payroll Friday, the run back up here to get to this
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80 bearish order block go short there or run the buy stops on those individuals
81 that are short. They don't need to go very high above this high to run their
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85 stops. And then reject and go lower and reach for 35 2035 big figure and maybe
86 even down to 3495
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90 Never concern myself with the actual numbers because the numbers themselves are
91 already factored in. They're actually old data, it is making it public. And they
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95 use those numbers as a smokescreen to run out liquidity.
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99 Notice the unwillingness to go above 35 at of any significance.
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103 So they had high initially on day three got to midnight, New York time, failing
104 to get to 35 at institutional level at levels, a good nice number for
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108 institutions and power orders in and around, they sold off, they come all the
109 way back up now this to hit the 35 at level now, which also effectively takes
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113 out to buy stuff on any holders that were short. So the idea is that cables been
114 going up for a while. And anyone that has been profitable shorting this morning,
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118 they are not allowed to be profitable. So non farm payrolls used to upset those
119 orders. And they take those individuals out
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123 few minutes past the release of non farm. Now, if it were a non event, like it
124 was non farm payroll, not included in today's calendar, I would be short right
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128 now. I wish I would be short at this moment where we're at here.
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132 So that would be my short. I'm not wasting my demo because I want to keep it
133 clean with actual demo executions, but I'm just giving you a pay per trade idea.
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137 So I'm demoing on a demo.
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141 But you guys see that same account the account history. I've been doing trades
142 recently. So it's been a few days since it's been done but that's where I'm at,
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146 to go back and look at my other screenshots and recordings, you'll see that that
147 balance matches, nothing's changed. And that's a dual accountability folks.
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151 Nothing to be afraid of, and nothing to be fearful of, unless you're losing. And
152 people don't want to see that.
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156 I'm typically on the sidelines till the third Tuesday. So I was waiting for the
157 first two weeks of trade through on every year in January. And then I pick up my
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161 actual interest in actual entries and such on the third Tuesday of every
162 January, and then I go light, like a very, very light on leverage. And I just go
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166 very, very slow.
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170 I go very, very slow, with the amount of leverage until I get into February. And
171 once I get into February, then I start working towards a normalized amount of
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175 leverage. And by the fifth of February, I should be in the thick of things.
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179 Again, note the unwillingness to want to go above 3580. We just went above these
180 initial daily highs. And the theme is, markets been going higher, or cable, we
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184 priced in a little bit of a rally in here, built a premium in on price and they
185 sank it going into London, they ran it up, took the stops out about the initial
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189 high of the day. And I would be looking for this thing to start working its way
190 lower. Now because it's Friday, we could see a rather lackluster event as well,
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194 you could just go right back to the middle of the range. And this is how you do
195 that. Okay, assuming that this high is the high of the day, this is something
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199 you do over the day. So equilibrium is right around here. So we could
200 consolidate between 3555 and 3550. If it doesn't drop, I just don't see it going
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204 higher and making higher highs of any significance.
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208 I'm not sure I can't recall if I mentioned that or not. But I mentioned that I
209 would I would be selling shorts. It was not nonfarm payroll Friday, at this
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213 level here, and I would simply use a 20 PIP stop. By because 20 pips above this
214 high, I'm already above that. So I don't think that 20 pips is going to be
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218 necessary. They ran it right to that level, right on the heels of the release of
219 the non farm payroll numbers. So I'd only be looking for a move lower. So if it
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223 was not a run on those by stops, yet, then I would use like a 30 PIP stop loss.
224 But because we've already essentially taken out device stops above that high. I
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228 can just go 20 pips above my entry, which would be hypothetically here.
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232 And some of you, you're probably wondering, well, if it goes down here and hits
233 that 3520 level, why didn't you take the trade? It would be in you know, in your
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237 account history, because it's not a day that I actually trade. And I'm
238 practicing what I preach. I try to tell people don't even practice in your demo
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242 one, and certainly don't want to trade with live funds, or non farm payrolls
243 Friday, because the casino ride, it's a carnival ride. It's it's absolutely.
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247 It's sometimes very volatile. And you might know what side of the marketplace it
248 wants to run for, but doesn't necessarily mean it's going to go the opposite
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252 direction right away either. So it can be really problematic for someone that
253 wants to know, a direction. The theme of this particular event is take the stops
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257 both sides of the marketplace if it's if it can be done. They'll take both
258 sides. But I view non farm payroll as a means of upsetting the ones that are
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262 going to stand to make the most money, post non farm payroll words, think of it
263 as a Judas swing.
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267 Now this portion of the video, I'm going to let it record, but it's going to be
268 sped up sounds, we'll make a note of that video speed increased now. So that way
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272 you guys know that what I'm doing is not any audio, I'm not talking right now I
273 can't fill in the gaps later on. Okay, so once I stopped talking, it'll just be
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277 recording the price action and then I'll come back when I take this off, then
278 it'll be real time and then we'll assess what's already happened. But I think
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282 ultimately, it's going to go down below
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286 here. Okay, so I would be taking my stop down to plus five
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290 in taking partial profits here. This is going to act as my stop.
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294 Now I'd be banking 75% 80% of the position and leaving the rest on the see if I
295 can get this stop around here to this was my hypothetical entry, but the high
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299 order block retreated back to that. And now we've seen some acceleration on the
300 downside, we do have a little bit of a water block in here, cable reach
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304 equilibrium, which is what I measured earlier. So that's what I'm saying I would
305 take that 75 80% off in this area here. That would be banked about 30 pips or so
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309 and a stop at plus five. So allow me to have a chance see if any further erosion
310 on price to get to that low. ideal scenario is for it to run to it before
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314 10am 10:30am New York time. The longer it waits and lags, the less likely it
315 will do that and will probably just stay right in the middle of the range for
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319 the rest of the day. So I'll go back into speeding the video up now.
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323 Alright folks, as you can see it's 11 o'clock in the morning, New York time. So
324 I would be killing the trade here. Any open profits on my demo position would be
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328 taken and any open position will be closed so there won't be any more likelihood
329 for downside movement. And I'll just let you guys pan out the rest of the day
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333 and see what has transpired but I will be out based on London close time
334 parameters.